Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

Multiple stressors and benthic harmful algal blooms (BHABs): Potential effects of temperature rise and nutrient enrichment

Blooms of Ostreopsis cf. ovata, causing health incidence and mass human intoxications in the Mediterranean, gained special attention over the past decades. To study the potential effects of temperature and nutrient enrichment on this benthic dinoflagellate and other associated microalgae in situ, a multifactorial experiment was set up along a temperature gradient of a heat pump system in Monaco. Microalgae were quantified in experimental units, in the natural biofilm and in the water column. No significant interaction was observed between temperature and nutrients. A species- and bloom phase-dependent effect of the increased temperature was recorded, while the nutrient enrichment had a significant effect only at the end of the experiment (when cell abundances were low). Temperature effects were also visible in the biofilm and the surrounding water. The observed assemblages were mainly driven by changes in abundances of Ostreopsis cf. ovata and Actinocyclus sp., affected in different ways.

Microplastic does not magnify the acute effect of PAH pyrene on predatory performance of a tropical fish (Lates calcarifer)

Microplastic (MP) leads to widespread pollution in the marine ecosystem. In addition to the physical hazard posed by ingestion of microplastic particles, concern is also on their potential as vector for transport of hydrophobic contaminants. We experimentally studied the single and interactive effects of microplastic and pyrene, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, on the swimming behaviour and predatory performance of juvenile barramundi (Lates calcarifer). Juveniles (18+ days post hatch) were exposed to MPs, or pyrene (100 nM), or combination of both, and feeding rate and foraging activity (swimming) were analysed. Exposure to MPs alone did not significantly influence feeding performance of the juveniles, while a dose-effect series of pyrene showed strong effect on fish behaviour when concentrations were above 100 nM. In the test of combined MP and pyrene exposure, we observed no effect on feeding while swimming speed decreased significantly. Thus, our results confirm that short-time exposure to pyrene impacts the performance of fish juveniles, while additional exposure to microplastic at the given conditions influenced their activity only and not their feeding rate. Further studies of the combined effects of microplastics and pollutants on tropical fish behaviour are encouraged.

Defining wet season water quality target concentrations for ecosystem conservation using empirical light attenuation models: A case study in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia)

Optically active water quality components (OAC) transported by flood plumes to nearshore marine environments affect light levels. The definition of minimum OAC concentrations that must be maintained to sustain sufficient light levels for conservation of light-dependant coastal ecosystems exposed to flood waters is necessary to guide management actions in adjacent catchments. In this study, a framework for defining OAC target concentrations using empirical light attenuation models is proposed and applied to the Wet Tropics region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) (Queensland, Australia). This framework comprises several steps: (i) light attenuation (Kd(PAR)) profiles and OAC measurements, including coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations collected in flood waters; (ii) empirical light attenuation models used to define the contribution of CDOM, Chl-a and SPM to the light attenuation, and; (iii) translation of empirical models into manageable OAC target concentrations specific for wet season conditions. Results showed that (i) Kd(PAR) variability in the Wet Tropics flood waters is driven primarily by SPM and CDOM, with a lower contribution from Chl-a (r2 = 0.5, p < 0.01), (ii) the relative contributions of each OAC varies across the different water bodies existing along flood waters and strongest Kd(PAR) predictions were achieved when the in-situ data were clustered into water bodies with similar satellite-derived colour characteristics ('brownish flood waters', r2 = 0.8, p < 0.01, 'greenish flood waters', r2 = 0.5, p < 0.01), and (iii) that Kd(PAR) simulations are sensitive to the angular distribution of the light field in the clearest flood water bodies. Empirical models developed were used to translate regional light guidelines (established for the GBR) into manageable OAC target concentrations. Preliminary results suggested that a 90th percentile SPM concentration of 11.4 mg L^-1 should be maintained during the wet season to sustain favourable light levels for Wet Tropics coral reefs and seagrass ecosystems exposed to 'brownish' flood waters. Additional data will be collected to validate the light attenuation models and the wet season target concentration which in future will be incorporated into wider catchment modelling efforts to improve coastal water quality in the Wet Tropics and the GBR.

A Global Mitigation Hierarchy for Nature Conservation

Efforts to conserve biodiversity comprise a patchwork of international goals, national-level plans, and local interventions that, overall, are failing. We discuss the potential utility of applying the mitigation hierarchy, widely used during economic development activities, to all negative human impacts on biodiversity. Evaluating all biodiversity losses and gains through the mitigation hierarchy could help prioritize consideration of conservation goals and drive the empirical evaluation of conservation investments through the explicit consideration of counterfactual trends and ecosystem dynamics across scales. We explore the challenges in using this framework to achieve global conservation goals, including operationalization and monitoring and compliance, and we discuss solutions and research priorities. The mitigation hierarchy's conceptual power and ability to clarify thinking could provide the step change needed to integrate the multiple elements of conservation goals and interventions in order to achieve successful biodiversity outcomes.

Addressing Criticisms of Large-Scale Marine Protected Areas

Designated large-scale marine protected areas (LSMPAs, 100,000 or more square kilometers) constitute over two-thirds of the approximately 6.6% of the ocean and approximately 14.5% of the exclusive economic zones within marine protected areas. Although LSMPAs have received support among scientists and conservation bodies for wilderness protection, regional ecological connectivity, and improving resilience to climate change, there are also concerns. We identified 10 common criticisms of LSMPAs along three themes: (1) placement, governance, and management; (2) political expediency; and (3) social-ecological value and cost. Through critical evaluation of scientific evidence, we discuss the value, achievements, challenges, and potential of LSMPAs in these arenas. We conclude that although some criticisms are valid and need addressing, none pertain exclusively to LSMPAs, and many involve challenges ubiquitous in management. We argue that LSMPAs are an important component of a diversified management portfolio that tempers potential losses, hedges against uncertainty, and enhances the probability of achieving sustainably managed oceans.

Using bivalve chronologies for quantifying environmental drivers in a semi-enclosed temperate sea

Annual growth increments formed in bivalve shells are increasingly used as proxies of environmental variability and change in marine ecosystems, especially at higher latitudes. Here, we document that well-replicated and exactly dated chronologies can also be developed to capture oceanographic processes in temperate and semi-enclosed seas, such as the Mediterranean. A chronology is constructed for Glycymeris pilosa from a shallow embayment of the northern Adriatic and extends from 1979 to 2016. The chronology significantly (p < 0.05) and positively correlates to winter sea surface temperatures, but negatively correlates to summer temperatures, which suggests that extreme winter lows and extreme summer highs may be limiting to growth. However, the strongest and most consistent relationships are negative correlations with an index of the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS) for which positive values indicate the inflow of the ultraoligotrophic Eastern Mediterranean waters to the Adriatic. In contrast, the substantial freshwater flows that discharge into the Adriatic do not correlate to the bivalve chronology, emphasizing the importance of remote oceanographic processes to growth at this highly coastal site. Overall, this study underscores the potential of bivalve chronologies to capture biologically relevant, local- to regional-scale patterns of ocean circulation in mid-latitude, temperate systems.

Managing conflicts between economic activities and threatened migratory marine species toward creating a multiobjective blue economy

Harnessing the economic potential of the oceans is key to combating poverty, enhancing food security, and strengthening economies. But the concomitant risk of intensified resource extraction to migratory species is worrying given these species contribute to important ecological processes, often underpin alternative livelihoods, and are mostly already threatened. We thus sought to quantify the potential conflict between key economic activities (5 fisheries and hydrocarbon exploitation) and sea turtle migration corridors in a region with rapid economic development: southern and eastern Africa. We satellite tracked the movement of 20 loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and 14 leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) turtles during their postnesting migrations. We used movement-based kernel density estimation to identify migration corridors for each species. We overlaid these corridors on maps of the distribution and intensity of economic activities, quantified the extent of overlap and threat posed by each activity on each species, and compared the effects of activities. These results were compared with annual bycatch rates in the respective fisheries. Both species' 3 corridors overlapped most with longline fishing, but the effect was worse for leatherbacks: their bycatch rates of approximately 1500/year were substantial relative to the regional population size of <100 nesting females/annum. This bycatch rate is likely slowing population growth. Artisanal fisheries may be of greater concern for loggerheads than for leatherbacks, but the population appears to be withstanding the high bycatch rates because it is increasing exponentially. The hydrocarbon industry currently has a moderately low impact on both species, but mining in key areas (e.g., Southern Mozambique) may undermine >50 years of conservation, potentially affecting >80% of loggerheads, 33% of the (critically endangered) leatherbacks, and their nesting beaches. We support establishing blue economies (i.e., generating wealth from the ocean), but oceans need to be carefully zoned and responsibly managed in both space and time to achieve economic (resource extraction), ecological (conservation, maintenance of processes), and social (maintenance of alternative livelihood opportunities, alleviate poverty) objectives.

Mapping social-ecological vulnerability to inform local decision making

An overarching challenge of natural resource management and biodiversity conservation is that relationships between people and nature are difficult to integrate into tools that can effectively guide decision making. Social-ecological vulnerability offers a valuable framework for identifying and understanding important social-ecological linkages, and the implications of dependencies and other feedback loops in the system. Unfortunately, its implementation at local scales has hitherto been limited due at least in part to the lack of operational tools for spatial representation of social-ecological vulnerability. We developed a method to map social-ecological vulnerability based on information on human-nature dependencies and ecosystem services at local scales. We applied our method to the small-scale fishery of Moorea, French Polynesia, by combining spatially explicit indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of both the resource (i.e., vulnerability of reef fish assemblages to fishing) and resource users (i.e., vulnerability of fishing households to the loss of fishing opportunity). Our results revealed that both social and ecological vulnerabilities varied considerably through space and highlighted areas where sources of vulnerability were high for both social and ecological subsystems (i.e., social-ecological vulnerability hotspots) and thus of high priority for management intervention. Our approach can be used to inform decisions about where biodiversity conservation strategies are likely to be more effective and how social impacts from policy decisions can be minimized. It provides a new perspective on human-nature linkages that can help guide sustainability management at local scales; delivers insights distinct from those provided by emphasis on a single vulnerability component (e.g., exposure); and demonstrates the feasibility and value of operationalizing the social-ecological vulnerability framework for policy, planning, and participatory management decisions.

Advancing the integration of spatial data to map human and natural drivers on coral reefs

A major challenge for coral reef conservation and management is understanding how a wide range of interacting human and natural drivers cumulatively impact and shape these ecosystems. Despite the importance of understanding these interactions, a methodological framework to synthesize spatially explicit data of such drivers is lacking. To fill this gap, we established a transferable data synthesis methodology to integrate spatial data on environmental and anthropogenic drivers of coral reefs, and applied this methodology to a case study location-the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Environmental drivers were derived from time series (2002-2013) of climatological ranges and anomalies of remotely sensed sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a, irradiance, and wave power. Anthropogenic drivers were characterized using empirically derived and modeled datasets of spatial fisheries catch, sedimentation, nutrient input, new development, habitat modification, and invasive species. Within our case study system, resulting driver maps showed high spatial heterogeneity across the MHI, with anthropogenic drivers generally greatest and most widespread on O'ahu, where 70% of the state's population resides, while sedimentation and nutrients were dominant in less populated islands. Together, the spatial integration of environmental and anthropogenic driver data described here provides a first-ever synthetic approach to visualize how the drivers of coral reef state vary in space and demonstrates a methodological framework for implementation of this approach in other regions of the world. By quantifying and synthesizing spatial drivers of change on coral reefs, we provide an avenue for further research to understand how drivers determine reef diversity and resilience, which can ultimately inform policies to protect coral reefs.

A numerical calculation method of environmental impacts for the deep sea mining industry - a review

Since the gradual decrease of mineral resources on-land, deep sea mining (DSM) is becoming an urgent and important emerging activity in the world. However, until now there has been no commercial scale DSM project in progress. Together with the reasons of technological feasibility and economic profitability, the environmental impact is one of the major parameters hindering its industrialization. Most of the DSM environmental impact research focuses on only one particular aspect ignoring that all the DSM environmental impacts are related to each other. The objective of this work is to propose a framework for the numerical calculation methods of the integrated DSM environmental impacts through a literature review. This paper covers three parts: (i) definition and importance description of different DSM environmental impacts; (ii) description of the existing numerical calculation methods for different environmental impacts; (iii) selection of a numerical calculation method based on the selected criteria. The research conducted in this paper provides a clear numerical calculation framework for DSM environmental impact and could be helpful to speed up the industrialization process of the DSM industry.

Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models

Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources.

Anthropogenic activities and coastal environmental quality: a regional quantitative analysis in southeast China with management implications

Regional analysis of environmental issues has always been a hot topic in the field of sustainable development. Because the different levels of economic growth, urbanization, resource endowments, etc. in different regions generate apparently different ecological responses, a better description and comparison across different regions will provide more valuable implications for ecological improvement and policymaking. In this study, seven typical bays in southeast China that are a rapid developing area were selected to quantitatively analyze the relationship between socioeconomic development and coastal environmental quality. Based on the water quality data from 2007 to 2015, the multivariate statistical method was applied to analyze the potential environmental risks and to classify the seven bays based on their environmental quality status. The possible variation trends of environmental indices were predicted based on the cross-regional panel data by Environmental Kuznets Curve. The results showed that there were significant regional differences among the seven bays, especially Quanzhou, Xiamen, and Luoyuan Bays, suffered from severer artificial disturbances than other bays, despite their different development patterns. Socioeconomic development level was significantly associated with some water quality indices (pH, DIN, PO₄-P); the association was roughly positive: the areas with higher GDP per capita have some worse water quality indices. In addition, the decreasing trend of pH values and the increasing trend of nutrient concentration in the seven bays will continue in the foreseeable future. In consideration of the variation trends, the limiting nutrient strategy should be implemented to mitigate the deterioration of the coastal environments.

A regional assessment of cumulative impact mapping on Mediterranean coralligenous outcrops

In the last decade, the ‘Cumulative Pressure and Impact Assessment’ (CPIA) approach emerged as a tool to map expected impacts on marine ecosystems. However, CPIA assumes a linear response of ecosystems to increasing level of cumulative pressure weighting sensitivity to different anthropogenic pressures through expert judgement. We applied CPIA to Mediterranean coralligenous outcrops over 1000 km of the Italian coastline. Extensive field surveys were conducted to assess the actual condition of coralligenous assemblages at varying levels of human pressure. As pressure increased, a clear shift from bioconstructors to turf-dominated assemblages was found. The linear model originally assumed for CPIA did not fit the actual relationship between expected cumulative impact versus assemblage degradation. A log-log model, instead, best fitted the data and predicted a different map of cumulative impact in the study area able to appreciate the whole range of impact scenarios. Hence, the relative importance of different drivers in explaining the observed pattern of degradation was not aligned with weights from the expert opinion. Such findings stress the need for more incisive efforts to collect empirical evidence on ecosystem-specific responses to human pressure in order to refine CPIA predictions.

Capturing expert uncertainty in spatial cumulative impact assessments

Understanding the spatial distribution of human impacts on marine environments is necessary for maintaining healthy ecosystems and supporting 'blue economies'. Realistic assessments of impact must consider the cumulative impacts of multiple, coincident threats and the differing vulnerabilities of ecosystems to these threats. Expert knowledge is often used to assess impact in marine ecosystems because empirical data are lacking; however, this introduces uncertainty into the results. As part of a spatial cumulative impact assessment for Spencer Gulf, South Australia, we asked experts to estimate score ranges (best-case, most-likely and worst-case), which accounted for their uncertainty about the effect of 32 threats on eight ecosystems. Expert scores were combined with data on the spatial pattern and intensity of threats to generate cumulative impact maps based on each of the three scoring scenarios, as well as simulations and maps of uncertainty. We compared our method, which explicitly accounts for the experts' knowledge-based uncertainty, with other approaches and found that it provides smaller uncertainty bounds, leading to more constrained assessment results. Collecting these additional data on experts' knowledge-based uncertainty provides transparency and simplifies interpretation of the outputs from spatial cumulative impact assessments, facilitating their application for sustainable resource management and conservation.

A risk-based approach to cumulative effect assessments for marine management

Marine ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the cumulative effects of multiple human pressures. Cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) are needed to inform environmental policy and guide ecosystem-based management. Yet, CEAs are inherently complex and seldom linked to real-world management processes. Therefore we propose entrenching CEAs in a risk management process, comprising the steps of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. We provide guidance to operationalize a risk-based approach to CEAs by describing for each step guiding principles and desired outcomes, scientific challenges and practical solutions. We reviewed the treatment of uncertainty in CEAs and the contribution of different tools and data sources to the implementation of a risk based approach to CEAs. We show that a risk-based approach to CEAs decreases complexity, allows for the transparent treatment of uncertainty and streamlines the uptake of scientific outcomes into the science-policy interface. Hence, its adoption can help bridging the gap between science and decision-making in ecosystem-based management.

Contrasting responses of functional diversity to major losses in taxonomic diversity

Taxonomic diversity of benthic marine invertebrate shelf species declines at present by nearly an order of magnitude from the tropics to the poles in each hemisphere along the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), most steeply along the western Pacific where shallow-sea diversity is at its tropical maximum. In the Bivalvia, a model system for macroevolution and macroecology, this taxonomic trend is accompanied by a decline in the number of functional groups and an increase in the evenness of taxa distributed among those groups, with maximum functional evenness (FE) in polar waters of both hemispheres. In contrast, analyses of this model system across the two era-defining events of the Phanerozoic, the Permian-Triassic and Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinctions, show only minor declines in functional richness despite high extinction intensities, resulting in a rise in FE owing to the persistence of functional groups. We hypothesize that the spatial decline of taxonomic diversity and increase in FE along the present-day LDG primarily reflect diversity-dependent factors, whereas retention of almost all functional groups through the two mass extinctions suggests the operation of diversity-independent factors. Comparative analyses of different aspects of biodiversity thus reveal strongly contrasting biological consequences of similarly severe declines in taxonomic diversity and can help predict the consequences for functional diversity among different drivers of past, present, and future biodiversity loss.

Multi-objective spatial tools to inform maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic Sea

This research presents a set of multi-objective spatial tools for sea planning and environmental management in the Adriatic Sea Basin. The tools address four objectives: 1) assessment of cumulative impacts from anthropogenic sea uses on environmental components of marine areas; 2) analysis of sea use conflicts; 3) 3-D hydrodynamic modelling of nutrient dispersion (nitrogen and phosphorus) from riverine sources in the Adriatic Sea Basin and 4) marine ecosystem services capacity assessment from seabed habitats based on an ES matrix approach. Geospatial modelling results were illustrated, analysed and compared on country level and for three biogeographic subdivisions, Northern-Central-Southern Adriatic Sea. The paper discusses model results for their spatial implications, relevance for sea planning, limitations and concludes with an outlook towards the need for more integrated, multi-functional tools development for sea planning.

Widespread local chronic stressors in Caribbean coastal habitats

Coastal ecosystems and the livelihoods they support are threatened by stressors acting at global and local scales. Here we used the data produced by the Caribbean Coastal Marine Productivity program (CARICOMP), the longest, largest monitoring program in the wider Caribbean, to evidence local-scale (decreases in water quality) and global-scale (increases in temperature) stressors across the basin. Trend analyses showed that visibility decreased at 42% of the stations, indicating that local-scale chronic stressors are widespread. On the other hand, only 18% of the stations showed increases in water temperature that would be expected from global warming, partially reflecting the limits in detecting trends due to inherent natural variability of temperature data. Decreases in visibility were associated with increased human density. However, this link can be decoupled by environmental factors, with conditions that increase the flush of water, dampening the effects of human influence. Besides documenting environmental stressors throughout the basin, our results can be used to inform future monitoring programs, if the desire is to identify stations that provide early warning signals of anthropogenic impacts. All CARICOMP environmental data are now available, providing an invaluable baseline that can be used to strengthen research, conservation, and management of coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean basin.

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones-with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of spatial scale in estimating such impacts. These results offer a valuable decision-support tool by helping to constrain the decision space, focus attention on habitats and locations at the greatest risk, and highlight effect management strategies.

Partitioning no-take marine reserve (NTMR) and benthic habitat effects on density of small and large-bodied tropical wrasses

No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) are increasingly implemented for fisheries management and biodiversity conservation. Yet, assessing NTMR effectiveness depends on partitioning the effects of NTMR protection and benthic habitat on protected species. Such partitioning is often difficult, since most studies lack well-designed sampling programs (i.e. Before-After-Control-Impact-Pair designs) spanning long-term time scales. Spanning 31 years, this study quantifies the effects of NTMR protection and changes to benthic habitat on the density of tropical wrasses (F. Labridae) at Sumilon and Apo Islands, Philippines. Five species of wrasse were studied: two species of large-bodied (40-50 cm TL) Hemigymnus that were vulnerable to fishing, and three species of small-bodied (10-25 cm TL) Thalassoma and Cirrhilabrus that were not targeted by fishing. NTMR protection had no measurable effect on wrasse density, irrespective of species or body size, over 20 (Sumilon) and 31 (Apo) years of protection. However, the density of wrasses was often affected strongly by benthic cover. Hemigymnus spp. had a positive association with hard coral cover, while Thalassoma spp. and Cirrhilabrus spp. had strong positive associations with cover of rubble and dead substratum. These associations were most apparent after environmental disturbances (typhoons, coral bleaching, crown of thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks, use of explosives and drive nets) reduced live hard coral cover and increased cover of rubble, dead substratum and sand. Disturbances that reduced hard coral cover often reduced the density of Hemigymnus spp. and increased the density of Thalassoma spp. and Cirrhilabrus spp. rapidly (1-2 years). As hard coral recovered, density of Hemigymnus spp. often increased while density of Thalassoma spp. and Cirrhilabrus spp. often decreased, often on scales of 5-10 years. This study demonstrates that wrasse population density was influenced more by changes to benthic cover than by protection from fishing.

Threats from urban expansion, agricultural transformation and forest loss on global conservation priority areas

Including threats in spatial conservation prioritization helps identify areas for conservation actions where biodiversity is at imminent risk of extinction. At the global level, an important limitation when identifying spatial priorities for conservation actions is the lack of information on the spatial distribution of threats. Here, we identify spatial conservation priorities under three prominent threats to biodiversity (residential and commercial development, agricultural expansion, and forest loss), which are primary drivers of habitat loss and threaten the persistence of the highest number of species in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, and for which spatial data is available. We first explore how global priority areas for the conservation of vertebrate (mammals, birds, and amphibians) species coded in the Red List as vulnerable to each threat differ spatially. We then identify spatial conservation priorities for all species vulnerable to all threats. Finally, we identify the potentially most threatened areas by overlapping the identified priority areas for conservation with maps for each threat. We repeat the same with four other well-known global conservation priority area schemes, namely Key Biodiversity Areas, Biodiversity Hotspots, the global Protected Area Network, and Wilderness Areas. We find that residential and commercial development directly threatens only about 4% of the global top 17% priority areas for species vulnerable under this threat. However, 50% of the high priority areas for species vulnerable to forest loss overlap with areas that have already experienced some forest loss. Agricultural expansion overlapped with ~20% of high priority areas. Biodiversity Hotspots had the greatest proportion of their total area under direct threat from all threats, while expansion of low intensity agriculture was found to pose an imminent threat to Wilderness Areas under future agricultural expansion. Our results identify areas where limited resources should be allocated to mitigate risks to vertebrate species from habitat loss.

Community ecology in 3D: Tensor decomposition reveals spatio-temporal dynamics of large ecological communities

Understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of biotic communities containing large numbers of species is crucial to guide ecosystem management and conservation efforts. However, traditional approaches usually focus on studying community dynamics either in space or in time, often failing to fully account for interlinked spatio-temporal changes. In this study, we demonstrate and promote the use of tensor decomposition for disentangling spatio-temporal community dynamics in long-term monitoring data. Tensor decomposition builds on traditional multivariate statistics (e.g. Principal Component Analysis) but extends it to multiple dimensions. This extension allows for the synchronized study of multiple ecological variables measured repeatedly in time and space. We applied this comprehensive approach to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of 65 demersal fish species in the North Sea, a marine ecosystem strongly altered by human activities and climate change. Our case study demonstrates how tensor decomposition can successfully (i) characterize the main spatio-temporal patterns and trends in species abundances, (ii) identify sub-communities of species that share similar spatial distribution and temporal dynamics, and (iii) reveal external drivers of change. Our results revealed a strong spatial structure in fish assemblages persistent over time and linked to differences in depth, primary production and seasonality. Furthermore, we simultaneously characterized important temporal distribution changes related to the low frequency temperature variability inherent in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Finally, we identified six major sub-communities composed of species sharing similar spatial distribution patterns and temporal dynamics. Our case study demonstrates the application and benefits of using tensor decomposition for studying complex community data sets usually derived from large-scale monitoring programs.

Increased sediment loads cause non-linear decreases in seagrass suitable habitat extent

Land-based activities, including deforestation, agriculture, and urbanisation, cause increased erosion, reduced inland and coastal water quality, and subsequent loss or degradation of downstream coastal marine ecosystems. Quantitative approaches to link sediment loads from catchments to metrics of downstream marine ecosystem state are required to calculate the cost effectiveness of taking conservation actions on land to benefits accrued in the ocean. Here we quantify the relationship between sediment loads derived from landscapes to habitat suitability of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We use the following approach: (1) a catchment hydrological model generates sediment loads; (2) a statistical model links sediment loads to water clarity at monthly time-steps; (3) a species distribution model (SDM) factors in water clarity, bathymetry, wave height, and substrate suitability to predict seagrass habitat suitability at monthly time-steps; and (4) a statistical model quantifies the effect of sediment loads on area of seagrass suitable habitat in a given year. The relationship between sediment loads and seagrass suitable habitat is non-linear: large increases in sediment have a disproportionately large negative impact on availability of seagrass suitable habitat. Varying the temporal scale of analysis (monthly vs. yearly), or varying the threshold value used to delineate predicted seagrass presence vs. absence, both affect the magnitude, but not the overall shape, of the relationship between sediment loads and seagrass suitable habitat area. Quantifying the link between sediment produced from catchments and extent of downstream marine ecosystems allows assessment of the relative costs and benefits of taking conservation actions on land or in the ocean, respectively, to marine ecosystems.

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.

Clone wars: asexual reproduction dominates in the invasive range of Tubastraea spp. (Anthozoa: Scleractinia) in the South-Atlantic Ocean

Although the invasive azooxanthellate corals Tubastraea coccinea and T. tagusensis are spreading quickly and outcompeting native species in the Atlantic Ocean, there is little information regarding the genetic structure and path of introduction for these species. Here we present the first data on genetic diversity and clonal structure from these two species using a new set of microsatellite markers. High proportions of clones were observed, indicating that asexual reproduction has a major role in the local population dynamics and, therefore, represents one of the main reasons for the invasion success. Although no significant population structure was found, results suggest the occurrence of multiple invasions for T. coccinea and also that both species are being transported along the coast by vectors such as oil platforms and monobouys, spreading these invasive species. In addition to the description of novel microsatellite markers, this study sheds new light into the invasive process of Tubastraea.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.

Coral reefs in the Anthropocene

Coral reefs support immense biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services to many millions of people. Yet reefs are degrading rapidly in response to numerous anthropogenic drivers. In the coming centuries, reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, and rising temperatures will transform them into new configurations, unlike anything observed previously by humans. Returning reefs to past configurations is no longer an option. Instead, the global challenge is to steer reefs through the Anthropocene era in a way that maintains their biological functions. Successful navigation of this transition will require radical changes in the science, management and governance of coral reefs.

What difference does a century make? Shifts in the ecosystem structure of the Ross Sea, Antarctica, as evidenced from a sentinel species, the Weddell seal

The arrival of humans to Antarctica's Ross Sea (100+ years ago) led to a slow, but sustained increase in human activities in the area. To investigate if human presence has influenced the structure of the ecosystem over the last century, we compared historical (ca 100 years old) and modern samples of a sentinel species, the Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii), using both bulk tissue and compound-specific stable isotope analysis. The historical isotopic niche of Weddell seals was over five times larger than the modern niche. The isotopic values of individual amino acids showed a clear segregation between historical and modern samples, indicative of differences at the base of the trophic web. Further, we found no significant differences in the trophic position of Weddell seals between the two periods. Our study revealed that the Ross Sea has undergone detectable changes (i.e. in the primary producers community) in the last century, but the presence of humans has not disrupted trophic interactions supporting Weddell seals.

Large marine protected areas represent biodiversity now and under climate change

Large marine protected areas (>30,000 km²) have a high profile in marine conservation, yet their contribution to conservation is contested. Assessing the overlap of large marine protected areas with 14,172 species, we found large marine protected areas cover 4.4% of the ocean and at least some portion of the range of 83.3% of the species assessed. Of all species within large marine protected areas, 26.9% had at least 10% of their range represented, and this was projected to increase to 40.1% in 2100. Cumulative impacts were significantly higher within large marine protected areas than outside, refuting the critique that they only occur in pristine areas. We recommend future large marine protected areas be sited based on systematic conservation planning practices where possible and include areas beyond national jurisdiction, and provide five key recommendations to improve the long-term representation of all species to meet critical global policy goals (e.g., Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi Targets).

Marine Microbial Gene Abundance and Community Composition in Response to Ocean Acidification and Elevated Temperature in Two Contrasting Coastal Marine Sediments

Marine ecosystems are exposed to a range of human-induced climate stressors, in particular changing carbonate chemistry and elevated sea surface temperatures as a consequence of climate change. More research effort is needed to reduce uncertainties about the effects of global-scale warming and acidification for benthic microbial communities, which drive sedimentary biogeochemical cycles. In this research, mesocosm experiments were set up using muddy and sandy coastal sediments to investigate the independent and interactive effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentrations (750 ppm CO2) and elevated temperature (ambient +4°C) on the abundance of taxonomic and functional microbial genes. Specific quantitative PCR primers were used to target archaeal, bacterial, and cyanobacterial/chloroplast 16S rRNA in both sediment types. Nitrogen cycling genes archaeal and bacterial ammonia monooxygenase (amoA) and bacterial nitrite reductase (nirS) were specifically targeted to identify changes in microbial gene abundance and potential impacts on nitrogen cycling. In muddy sediment, microbial gene abundance, including amoA and nirS genes, increased under elevated temperature and reduced under elevated CO2 after 28 days, accompanied by shifts in community composition. In contrast, the combined stressor treatment showed a non-additive effect with lower microbial gene abundance throughout the experiment. The response of microbial communities in the sandy sediment was less pronounced, with the most noticeable response seen in the archaeal gene abundances in response to environmental stressors over time. 16S rRNA genes (amoA and nirS) were lower in abundance in the combined stressor treatments in sandy sediments. Our results indicated that marine benthic microorganisms, especially in muddy sediments, are susceptible to changes in ocean carbonate chemistry and seawater temperature, which ultimately may have an impact upon key benthic biogeochemical cycles.

Global and local disturbances interact to modify seagrass palatability

Global change, such as warming and ocean acidification, and local anthropogenic disturbances, such as eutrophication, can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we are far from being able to predict the outcome of multiple interacting disturbances on seagrass communities. Herbivores are key in determining plant community structure and the transfer of energy up the food web. Global and local disturbances may alter the ecological role of herbivory by modifying leaf palatability (i.e. leaf traits) and consequently, the feeding patterns of herbivores. This study evaluates the main and interactive effects of factors related to global change (i.e. elevated temperature, lower pH levels and associated ocean acidification) and local disturbance (i.e. eutrophication through ammonium enrichment) on a broad spectrum of leaf traits using the temperate seagrass Cymodocea nodosa, including structural, nutritional, biomechanical and chemical traits. The effect of these traits on the consumption rates of the generalist herbivore Paracentrotus lividus (purple sea urchin) is evaluated. The three disturbances of warming, low pH level and eutrophication, alone and in combination, increased the consumption rate of seagrass by modifying all leaf traits. Leaf nutritional quality, measured as nitrogen content, was positively correlated to consumption rate. In contrast, a negative correlation was found between feeding decisions by sea urchins and structural, biomechanical and chemical leaf traits. In addition, a notable accomplishment of this work is the identification of phenolic compounds not previously reported for C. nodosa. Our results suggest that global and local disturbances may trigger a major shift in the herbivory of seagrass communities, with important implications for the resilience of seagrass ecosystems.

Presence of enteric viruses, bioaccumulation and stability in Anomalocardia brasiliana clams (Gmelin, 1791)

Bivalve mollusks are filter feeders and may accumulate human pathogens in their tissues. Many studies demonstrated human diseases associated with bivalve consumption, especially oysters. Anomalocardia brasiliana clams are distributed along the Brazilian coastal area and are an exotic ingredient for some typical dishes in Brazil. Even though there are several reports describing the contamination of oysters and mussels with human pathogens, there is a lack of studies reporting contamination of A. brasiliana with human pathogens. An evaluation of natural microbiological contamination in A. brasiliana samples over a period of 18months (November 2014 to April 2016) showed that the bacteria indices were in accordance with Brazilian regulations (E. coli<230MPN and Salmonella sp. absent in 25g of meat). However, the enteric viruses evaluated were detected throughout the analysis period, with the highest result for the hepatitis A virus (HAV); followed by Rotavirus-A (RVA); Human Adenovirus (HAdV) and Norovirus GI (NoV GI). The bioaccumulation of enteric viruses by A. brasiliana during a period of 24h was performed using NoV GI and GII, HAV, RVA and HAdV as models. Interestingly the mollusk demonstrated different uptake behaviors in relation to these viruses throughout the time period. NoV GI was the most adsorbed virus after 24h. HAV concentration was <1% at 3h, but it increased to <10% at 8h, remaining unchanged until 12h, and decreasing to <3% at 24h; HAdV reached its highest concentration at 12h, being released by the animals and lowering to <3% at 24h. RVA bioaccumulation was unstable over time, reaching its highest values after 24h (<5%); NoV GII bioaccumulation remained <1%. Thermal inactivation of HAdV-2 in A. brasiliana was also evaluated. After the usual gentle cooking procedure using different times (0, 1, 1.5, 3 and 5mins), viral infectivity was evaluated using ICC-et-RT-qPCR. The temperature inside the DT remained <80°C over time and after 5min of cooking the HAdV reached a decay of 90% (1 log₁₀). The results showed a real warn to the consumers that can be exposed to infectious human viruses if they eat these clams improperly cooked. HAV was the most detected virus in these animals, which may lead to outbreaks. A. brasiliana exhibited distinct behavior in NoV GI bioaccumulation and persistence, pointing to the need for further studies about the cellular ligands used by these viruses to become attached to these clams.

Relationship between structure of macrobenthic assemblages and environmental variables in shallow sublittoral soft bottoms

We establish baseline knowledge of abundance, diversity and multivariate structure of macrobenthos from shallow sublitoral soft bottoms in the North Portuguese coast and elucidate main environmental factors that shape their spatial patterns. In this area distribution of soft bottoms is patchy, surrounded by boulders and rocky substrates. This particular landscape and the lack of significant anthropogenic disturbances are values for the conservation of this habitat. Sediment and physicochemical properties of the water column were studied to provide models for each studied macrobenthic variable. Our models highlighted that most of variation (59%-72%) in macrobenthic spatial patterns was explained by the studied environmental variables. Sedimentary variables were more relevant that those of the water column. Therefore, disturbances affecting sedimentary environment could cause dramatic changes in macrobenthic assemblages because of the limited availability of soft bottoms in the area. In this way, results are useful to adopt right management and conservation strategies.

Marine archaea and archaeal viruses under global change

Global change is altering oceanic temperature, salinity, pH, and oxygen concentration, directly and indirectly influencing marine microbial food web structure and function. As microbes represent >90% of the ocean’s biomass and are major drivers of biogeochemical cycles, understanding their responses to such changes is fundamental for predicting the consequences of global change on ecosystem functioning. Recent findings indicate that marine archaea and archaeal viruses are active and relevant components of marine microbial assemblages, far more abundant and diverse than was previously thought. Further research is urgently needed to better understand the impacts of global change on virus–archaea dynamics and how archaea and their viruses can interactively influence the ocean’s feedbacks on global change.

Global mismatch between fishing dependency and larval supply from marine reserves

Marine reserves are viewed as flagship tools to protect exploited species and to contribute to the effective management of coastal fisheries. Yet, the extent to which marine reserves are globally interconnected and able to effectively seed areas, where fisheries are most critical for food and livelihood security is largely unknown. Using a hydrodynamic model of larval dispersal, we predict that most marine reserves are not interconnected by currents and that their potential benefits to fishing areas are presently limited, since countries with high dependency on coastal fisheries receive very little larval supply from marine reserves. This global mismatch could be reversed, however, by placing new marine reserves in areas sufficiently remote to minimize social and economic costs but sufficiently connected through sea currents to seed the most exploited fisheries and endangered ecosystems.

Addressing uncertainty in modelling cumulative impacts within maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic and Ionian region

Maritime spatial planning (MSP) is envisaged as a tool to apply an ecosystem-based approach to the marine and coastal realms, aiming at ensuring that the collective pressure of human activities is kept within acceptable limits. Cumulative impacts (CI) assessment can support science-based MSP, in order to understand the existing and potential impacts of human uses on the marine environment. A CI assessment includes several sources of uncertainty that can hinder the correct interpretation of its results if not explicitly incorporated in the decision-making process. This study proposes a three-level methodology to perform a general uncertainty analysis integrated with the CI assessment for MSP, applied to the Adriatic and Ionian Region (AIR). We describe the nature and level of uncertainty with the help of expert judgement and elicitation to include all of the possible sources of uncertainty related to the CI model with assumptions and gaps related to the case-based MSP process in the AIR. Next, we use the results to tailor the global uncertainty analysis to spatially describe the uncertainty distribution and variations of the CI scores dependent on the CI model factors. The results show the variability of the uncertainty in the AIR, with only limited portions robustly identified as the most or the least impacted areas under multiple model factors hypothesis. The results are discussed for the level and type of reliable information and insights they provide to decision-making. The most significant uncertainty factors are identified to facilitate the adaptive MSP process and to establish research priorities to fill knowledge gaps for subsequent planning cycles. The method aims to depict the potential CI effects, as well as the extent and spatial variation of the data and scientific uncertainty; therefore, this method constitutes a suitable tool to inform the potential establishment of the precautionary principle in MSP.

Barbus meridionalis Risso, 1827 populations status in the Vişeu River basin (Maramureş Mountains Nature Park)

The ecological state of lotic ecosystems occupied naturally by Barbus meridionalis, in the Vişeu Basin within the Maramureş Mountains Natural Park, vary among good to reduced. The inventoried human activities which negatively influence the ecologic state of the Barbus meridionalis species habitats and populations are the organic and mining pollution, and poaching. The habitats with low and inadequate conditions created a reduced status of the Barbus meridionalis populations; the status of Barbus meridionalis populations is not so much affected in the cases of habitats of average to good condition. Barbus meridionalis is considered a relatively common fish species in the researched watershed despite the fact that its populations ecological status has decreased from 2007-2015, but the restoration potential in the area for improving this species status is high.