Serum soluble urokinase type plasminogen activated receptor and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activated receptor (suPAR) is a biomarker that may predict the occurrence of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS); however, there is still controversy about whether suPAR can predict FSGS. In this study, we performed a systematic evaluation and meta-analysis to prove whether suPAR can predict FSGS, and to detect a threshold concentration of suPAR that can be used to diagnose FSGS. In addition, a threshold concentration of suPAR for the diagnosis of FSGS was proposed.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and China Biology Medicine databases for studies published from the inception dates to 1 December 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: (1) Data involving the suPAR level were from blood samples; (2) FSGS was diagnosed by biopsy; and (3) randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Initially, a total of 364 studies were searched, among which 29 studies were finally included. In addition, seven studies described the cut-off value of suPAR, which ranged from 2992.6 to 5500 pg/mL.

RESULTS

The results showed that the suPAR levels in the primary FSGS group were significantly higher when compared with that in the normal control group (p<0.001; standard mean difference (SMD): 2.56; 95% CI 1.85 to 3.28), and significant differences were observed in the secondary FSGS and in the normal control group (p<0.001; SMD: 1.68; 95% CI 1.37 to 1.98). A suPAR concentration of 3000 pg/mL may be the best threshold for the diagnosis of primary FSGS (sensitivity=0.72; specificity=0.88; area under the curve=0.85).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggested that suPAR might be a potential biomarker for predicting primary and secondary FSGS. In addition, our data showed that a suPAR concentration of 3000 pg/mL might be used as a threshold for the diagnosis of FSGS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019120948.

State of viral hepatitis care in 16 countries of Central and Eastern European Region

OBJECTIVES

Survey was conducted to assess state of viral hepatitis care in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

METHODS

Representatives of 16 CEE countries completed on-line survey in April-May 2017 that collected information on basic epidemiology and availability of key services for HCV and HBV infections. Sources of information provided ranged from national surveillance data to expert opinion.

RESULTS

The burden of viral hepatitis varied between countries, ranging from 6,500 to 2 million for HCV and from 10,000 to 3 million for HBV. Access to routine HCV RNA testing and genotyping was reported by 11 and 9 countries, respectively. HCV resistance testing was available in 7 countries. Direct acting antivirals (DAAs) were available in 13 countries, most frequently Sofosbuvir and Ledipasvir/Sofosbuvir (12 countries apiece) and Ombitasvir/Paritaprevir/Dasabuvir (9 countries). HBV DNA testing and HBV genotyping were routinely available in 10 and 7 countries, respectively. Eleven countries reported available treatment with Tenofovir.

CONCLUSIONS

There are gaps in viral hepatitis care in CEE. Despite the availability of registered modern drugs for HCV and HBV, the access to treatment is limited. Ensuring quality health care is essential to reduce the epidemic and achieve the WHO's goal of eliminating viral hepatitis as a major public health challenge.

Anti-diabetic agents for prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus in people with pre-diabetes: a systematic review and network meta-analysis protocol

INTRODUCTION

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a substantial health problem worldwide. Pre-diabetic state is associated with increased risk for the development of diabetes. There are various pharmacological therapies with glucose-lowering activity for diabetes prevention. Of those, most are being compared with placebo instead of active agents. The relative effects and safety of different glucose-lowering drugs still remain uncertain. To address this gap, we will conduct a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) to evaluate comparative efficacy and safety of glucose-lowering agents for T2DM prevention in patients with pre-diabetes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PubMed, the Cochrane library and Embase will be searched from inception to December 2019 for relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that examined anti-diabetic drugs for diabetes prevention in patients with pre-diabetes. Two reviewers working independently will screen titles, abstracts and full papers. Data extraction will also be completed by two independent authors. The primary outcome will be the incidence of T2DM in patients with pre-diabetes at baseline. Secondary outcomes will include the achievement of normoglycaemia, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and hypoglycaemic event. Pairwise meta-analysis and NMA will be conducted for each outcome using a frequentist random-effects model. Additionally, subgroup analyses will also be performed. The comparison-adjusted funnel plot will be used to assess publication bias. The overall quality of evidence will be rated with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation framework. Data analysis will be conducted using Stata V.14.0.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval is not required. We plan to submit the results of this study to a peer-review journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019119157.

Estimation of salt intake in the Brazilian population: results from the 2013 National Health Survey

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the salt intake in the Brazilian population according to their urinary sodium excretion.

METHODS

The National Health Survey (2013) aimed to gather data on the health of adults (≥ 18 years) through a random selection of households. In each household, one adult was selected to have their biological data collected (anthropometry, blood pressure, and blood and urine tests). The urine sample was sent to a central laboratory to determine sodium (ion-selective electrode) and creatinine (Jaffé method) concentrations. Sodium excretion was estimated with the Tanaka equation.

RESULTS

Urinary sodium and creatinine concentrations were measured in 8,083individuals (58% women). The mean salt intake was estimated at 9.34 g/day (95% confidence interval - 95%CI 9.27 - 9.41) and was higher in males (9.63 g/day; 95%CI 9.52 - 9.74) than in females (9.08 g/day; 95%CI 8.99 - 9.17). Wefound no significant differences regarding age group, ethnicity, or schooling. Salt intake was higher in the Southeast and South regions and lower in the Northeast and North. Only 2.4% (95%CI 2.0 - 2.8) of the sample consumed less than 5 g/day, and 58.2% (95%CI 56.7 - 59.6) of participants had an estimated intake of 8 to 12 g/day.

CONCLUSION

The mean salt intake in the Brazilian population is approximately twice the recommended by the World Health Organization (5g/day).Given the association of high salt intake with hypertension and decreased renal function, these data indicate the need to adopt comprehensive public policies to reduce the consumption in the Brazilian population.

Prevalence of major cardiovascular disease risk factors among a group of sub-Saharan African young adults: a population-based cross-sectional study in Yaoundé, Cameroon

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence estimates of some major risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a young adult-aged population living in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study held from May to July 2017.

SETTING

PARTICIPANTS: Students aged 18-35 years, with no known history of CVD, found at the campus during recruitment and who voluntarily agreed to be included in the study.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Data were collected on personal and family history as well as lifestyle and nutritional habits; anthropometric parameters and blood pressure were also measured. Prevalence rates were calculated with their respective 95% CI.

RESULTS

Overall, 931 participants (53.8% males) were included, with a median age of 23 years (IQR 21-25). The prevalence estimates for some major CVD risk factors were: 3.1% (95% CI 2.0 to 4.2) for family history of heart attack, 6.3% (95% CI 4.7 to 7.9) for family history of stroke, 26.7% (95% CI 23.9 to 29.5) for hazardous alcohol consumption, 0.9% (95% 0.3 to 1.5) for current tobacco smoking, 27.6% (95% CI 24.7 to 30.5) for secondhand smoking, 88.9% (95% CI 86.9 to 90.9) for physical inactivity, 99.0% (95% CI 98.4 to 99.6) for inadequate fruits and/or vegetables consumption, 39.8% (95% CI 36.7 to 42.9) for self-reported anxiety, 49.2% (95% CI 46.0 to 52.4) for self-reported depression, 22.1% (95% CI 19.4 to 24.8) for overweight, 3.9% (95% CI 2.7 to 5.1) for obesity, 14.4% (95% CI 12.1 to 16.7) for abdominal obesity, 14.5% (95% CI 12.2 to 16.8) for excess body fat mass, 30.0% (95% CI 27.1 to 32.9) for suspected prehypertension and 2.8% (95% CI 1.7 to 3.9) for suspected hypertension.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of some major CVD risk factors is high among young adults living in Yaoundé, Cameroon. Therefore, specific actions should be undertaken in this population to mitigate the upcoming burden of CVD. Accordingly, younger-aged adult populations should be encouraged and accompanied to practice physical activity, eat healthily, and stop or avoid smoking and/or hazardous alcohol consumption.

Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Cognitive Impairment in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The Korean Frailty and Aging Cohort Study

The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between ambient air pollutants and cognitive impairment in Korean older adults. The cognitive function of 2,896 participants aged 70 to 84 years was measured using the Korean version of the mini-mental state examination, the digit span test, the word list learning test, and the frontal assessment battery. After matching the average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) <10 μm in size (PM₁₀) and <2.5 μm (PM_2.5), NO₂, CO, SO₂, and O₃ between 2013 and 2017, the association between air pollutants and cognitive scales was analyzed using a linear mixed regression and a multiple logistic regression analysis (after adjusting for age, sex, health related behaviors, socioeconomic status, comorbidity, and meteorological data). Exposure to PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂, and CO was associated with cognitive impairment above and beyond age or education level effects. Specifically, PM_2.5 was negatively associated with most components of the cognitive scales (interquartile range for PM_2.5: 2.0 μg/m³, odds ratio for poor global cognition: 2.28, 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.26). These associations may be affected by sex, residence area, or alcohol intake. Conclusively, air pollutants, especially PM_2.5, were associated with cognitive impairment, including global cognition, attention, memory, and executive function in Korean older adults aged ≥70 years.

Association between Macronutrient Intake and Excessive Daytime Sleepiness: An Iso-Caloric Substitution Analysis from the North West Adelaide Health Study

Epidemiological evidence on the association between macronutrient intake and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) is scarce. Using data from the North West Adelaide Health Study, we aimed to determine the association between iso-caloric substitution of macronutrients and EDS. Data from 1997 adults aged ≥ 24 years were analyzed. Daytime sleepiness was measured using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, a score ≥ 11 was considered EDS. Dietary intake data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. We determined absolute and relative energy intake based on consumption of saturated and unsaturated fats, protein, and carbohydrate. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to determine the associations using log-binomial logistic regression with and without iso-caloric substitution methods, and models were adjusted for confounders. The prevalence of EDS in the sample was 10.6%. After adjusting for potential confounders, substituting 5% energy intake from protein with an equal amount of saturated fat (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.00–2.45) and carbohydrate (OR = 1.23; 95% CI: 0.92–1.65) increased the odds of EDS. When carbohydrate was substituted with saturated fat (OR = 1.27; 95% CI: 0.93–1.59), the odds of EDS were increased. The odds of EDS were lower when saturated fat was substituted with unsaturated fat (OR = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.51–1.06), protein (OR = 0.63; 95% CI: 0.41–0.99) or carbohydrate (OR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.57–1.08). While these results were consistent over different iso-caloric substitution methods, inconsistent results were found with standard regression. While substitution of fat and carbohydrate with protein was inversely associated with EDS, substitution of protein with fat and carbohydrate was positively associated with EDS. Randomized trials are needed to confirm if dietary interventions can be used to improve daytime alertness in those with EDS.

New and emerging anti-fibrotic therapeutics entering or already in clinical trials in chronic liver diseases

Chronic liver diseases with different etiologies represent a major public health issue worldwide. Liver fibrosis is the common feature of almost all chronic liver diseases and remains a key determinant of clinical prognosis. Over the last two decades, basic science studies have uncovered molecular mechanisms underlying the pathophysiology of chronic liver diseases, leading to the recent development of new anti-fibrotic drugs. These new drugs target different steps in the pathophysiology of chronic liver injury: metabolism of glucose, lipids and bile acids, apoptosis, inflammation and fibrosis. Many targets are shared between non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and cholestatic diseases, explaining why some drugs have been assessed concurrently in both conditions. This review reports the most recent clinical trials designed to treat liver fibrosis, with a special focus on NASH and cholestatic diseases.

First line nucleos(t)ide analog monotherapy is more cost-effective than combination strategies in hepatitis B e antigen-positive chronic hepatitis B patients in China

BACKGROUND

Nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) in combination with peginterferon (PegIFN) therapy in patients with hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) shows better effectiveness than NA monotherapy in hepatitis B surface antigen loss, termed "functional cure," based on previous published studies. However, it is not known which strategy is more cost-effective on functional cure. The aim of this study was to analyze the cost-effectiveness of first-line monotherapies and combination strategies in HBeAg-positive CHB patients in China from a social perspective.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed with functional cure and other five states including CHB, compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and death to assess the cost-effectiveness of seven representative treatment strategies. Entecavir (ETV) monotherapy and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) monotherapy served as comparators, respectively.

RESULTS

In the two base-case analysis, compared with ETV, ETV generated the highest costs with $44,210 and the highest quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) with 16.78 years. Compared with TDF, treating CHB patients with ETV and NA - PegIFN strategies increased costs by $7639 and $6129, respectively, gaining incremental QALYs by 2.20 years and 1.66 years, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $3472/QALY and $3692/QALY, respectively, which were less than one-time gross domestic product per capita. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the results.

CONCLUSION

Among seven treatment strategies, first-line NA monotherapy may be more cost-effective than combination strategies in HBeAg-positive CHB patients in China.

Quality improvement in hospitals in the Russian Federation, 2000-2016: a systematic review

We reviewed published evidence on quality improvement in hospitals in the Russian Federation since 2000. We used three data sources: MEDLINE, 'Rossiiskaia Meditsina' (Central Scientific Medical Library), and elibrary.ru using specific search terms. No language or study design restrictions were imposed. In total, 1717 articles were identified; 51 met the inclusion criteria and were thematically analysed. Russian legislation, government acts and grey literature were sourced to contextualise identified themes. Since 2010, the Federal Ministry of Health has increasingly sought to improve quality of care, providing additional resources and new initiatives across the health system. These include clinical practice guidelines, pay for performance schemes, electronic medical records, more specialist care, paraclinical care, and quality control systems. Quality of care, increasingly a concern of the Russian government, is said to be improving. Yet most initiatives have rarely been evaluated. This reflects the limited capacity for health services research in Russia. It seems likely that the full potential for improvements in quality of care in Russia is still to be realised.

Do Older Adults with Multimorbidity Meet the Recommended Levels of Physical Activity? An Analysis of Scottish Health Survey

There is a positive association between physical activity (PA) and improved health in older adults. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and determinants of meeting recommended levels of PA among older adults with multimorbidity. Data has been derived from the nationally representative Scottish Health Surveys (2014–2017). A sub-sample of 2230 older adults (aged 65+) with multimorbidity were the study participants. Physical activity was evaluated using current recommended guidelines. Overall, 32.3% of the participants met the recommended levels of PA. Independent predictors of meeting the recommended levels of PA include male gender [odds ratio (OR) 2.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.58–2.54)], living in the least deprived areas [OR 1.79 (95% CI 1.20–2.69)]; being a non-smoker [OR 2.22 (95% CI 1.48–3. 34)]. Also, meeting recommended PA decreased with age [OR 0.92 (95% CI 0.90–0.94)] and body mass index [OR 0.93 (95% CI 0.91–0.95]; but increased per additional portion of fruit and vegetables taken [OR 1.19 (95% CI 1.12–1.25)] and with increase in well-being scale score [OR 1.05 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.06)]. Adherence to PA guidelines seems to be more related to age, BMI, gender (i.e. higher PA adherence in men vs. women), social support (i.e. social deprivation), dietary habits (i.e. fruit and vegetable intake) and social isolation among the elderly. In the one-third of older population, adherence to PA was associated to better mental health. Therefore, adaptation of PA guideline to suit theses determinants factors would reduce the gap difference among older adults with multimorbidity and enhance their mental well-being.

Regulatory Policies for Alcohol, other Psychoactive Substances and Addictive Behaviours: The Role of Level of Use and Potency. A Systematic Review

The object of this contribution based on a systematic review of the literature is to examine to what degree the level of use and potency play a role in regulatory policies for alcohol, other psychoactive substances and gambling, and whether there is an evidence base for this role. Level of use is usually defined around a behavioural pattern of the user (for example, cigarettes smoked per day, or average ethanol use in grams per day), while potency is defined as a property or characteristic of the substance. For all substances examined (alcohol, tobacco, opioids, cannabis) and gambling, both dimensions were taken into consideration in the formulation of most regulatory policies. However, the associations between both dimensions and regulatory policies were not systematic, and not always based on evidence. Future improvements are suggested.

The association between serum lipids and risk of premature mortality in Latin America: a systematic review of population-based prospective cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

To synthetize the scientific evidence on the association between serum lipids and premature mortality in Latin America (LA).

METHODS

Five data bases were searched from inception without language restrictions: Embase, Medline, Global Health, Scopus and LILACS. Population-based studies following random sampling methods were identified. The exposure variable was lipid biomarkers (e.g., total, LDL- or HDL- cholesterol). The outcome was all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The risk of bias was assessed following the Newcastle-Ottawa criteria. Results were summarized qualitatively.

RESULTS

The initial search resulted in 264 abstracts, five (N = 27,903) were included for the synthesis. Three papers reported on the same study from Puerto Rico (baseline in 1965), one was from Brazil (1996) and one from Peru (2007). All reports analysed different exposure variables and used different risk estimates (relative risks, hazard ratios or odds ratios). None of the reviewed reports showed strong association between individual lipid biomarkers and all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSION

The available evidence is outdated, inconsistently reported on several lipid biomarker definitions and used different methods to study the long-term mortality risk. These findings strongly support the need to better ascertain the mortality risk associated with lipid biomarkers in LA.

Betaine alleviates alcohol-induced osteonecrosis of the femoral head via mTOR signaling pathway regulation

Osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) is usually caused by chronic and excessive alcohol dependency, and this condition largely suppresses the osteogenic differentiation of bone mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs). As a trimethyl derivative of glycine, betaine is an important human nutrient that regulates a series of vital biological processes, including oxidative stress, inflammatory responses, osteoblast differentiation and cellular apoptosis. However, no study has investigated the role of betaine in alcohol-induced ONFH. In this study, we hypothesized that betaine might have protective effects on ethanol-treated BMSCs and decrease the morbidity of alcohol-induced ONFH in a rat model. In vitro, we found that ethanol significantly downregulated the expression of osteocalcin (OCN), collagen 1 (COL1) and RUNX2 via activating the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling cascade. However, the inhibitory effects were rescued by betaine co-treatment at concentrations of 1 mM and 10 mM. In vivo, the typical ONFH pathological changes in a rat model of alcohol-induced ONFH were investigated by using multiple methods, including hematoxylin-eosin staining, micro-CT scans, TdT-mediated dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) assays and immunohistochemical staining for OCN and COL1. Osteonecrotic lesions of the femoral head could be alleviated by betaine as evidenced by significant histological and radiological improvements. Collectively, betaine plays a protective role against ethanol-induced suppression of osteogenesis and mineralization of hBMSCs and is thus a potential pharmacotherapy for alcohol-induced ONFH in vivo.

Age at natural menopause and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

Background

Early menopause is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality; however, the association between early menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease is unclear. We aimed to assess the associations between age at natural menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease.

Methods

We harmonised and pooled individual-level data from 15 observational studies done across five countries and regions (Australia, Scandinavia, the USA, Japan, and the UK) between 1946 and 2013. Women who had reported their menopause status, age at natural menopause (if postmenopausal), and cardiovascular disease status (including coronary heart disease and stroke) were included. We excluded women who had hysterectomy or oophorectomy and women who did not report their age at menopause. The primary endpoint of this study was the occurrence of first non-fatal cardiovascular disease, defined as a composite outcome of incident coronary heart disease (including heart attack and angina) or stroke (including ischaemic stroke or haemorrhagic stroke). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between age at menopause and incident cardiovascular disease event. We also adjusted the model to account for smoking status, menopausal hormone therapy status, body-mass index, and education levels. Age at natural menopause was categorised as premenopausal or perimenopausal, younger than 40 years (premature menopause), 40–44 years (early menopause), 45–49 years (relatively early), 50–51 years (reference category), 52–54 years (relatively late), and 55 years or older (late menopause).

Findings

Overall, 301 438 women were included in our analysis. Of these 301 438 women, 12 962 (4·3%) had a first non-fatal cardiovascular disease event after menopause, of whom 9369 (3·1%) had coronary heart disease and 4338 (1·4%) had strokes. Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, the risk of cardiovascular disease was higher in women who had premature menopause (age <40 years; HR 1·55, 95% CI 1·38–1·73; p<0·0001), early menopause (age 40–44 years; 1·30, 1·22–1·39; p<0·0001), and relatively early menopause (age 45–49 years; 1·12, 1·07–1·18; p<0·0001), with a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular disease following menopause after age 51 years (p<0·0001 for trend). The associations persisted in never smokers, and were strongest before age 60 years for women with premature menopause (HR 1·88, 1·62–2·20; p<0·0001) and early menopause (1·40, 1·27–1·54; p<0·0001), but were attenuated at age 60–69 years, with no significant association observed at age 70 years and older.

Interpretation

Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, women with premature and early menopause had a substantially increased risk of a non-fatal cardiovascular disease event before the age of 60 years, but not after age 70 years. Women with earlier menopause need close monitoring in clinical practice, and age at menopause might also be considered as an important factor in risk stratification of cardiovascular disease for women.

Funding

Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Progress in iPSC-Based Modeling of Psychiatric Disorders

Progress in iPSC-based cellular systems provides new insights into human brain development and early neurodevelopmental deviations in psychiatric disorders. Among these, studies on schizophrenia (SCZ) take a prominent role owing to its high heritability and multifarious evidence that it evolves from a genetically induced vulnerability in brain development. Recent iPSC studies on patients with SCZ indicate that functional impairments of neural progenitor cells (NPCs) in monolayer culture extend to brain organoids by disrupting neocorticogenesis in an in vitro model. In addition, the formation of hippocampal circuit-like structures in vitro is impaired in patients with SCZ as is the case for glia development. Intriguingly, chimeric-mice experiments show altered oligodendrocyte and astrocyte development in vivo that highlights the importance of cell-cell interactions in the pathogenesis of early-onset SCZ. Likewise, cortical imbalances in excitatory-inhibitory signaling may result from a cell-autonomous defect in cortical interneuron (cIN) development. Overall, these findings indicate that genetic risk in SCZ impacts neocorticogenesis, hippocampal circuit formation, and the development of distinct glial and neuronal subtypes. In light of this remarkable progress, we discuss current limitations and further steps necessary to harvest the full potential of iPSC-based investigations on psychiatric disorders.

Neglected tropical diseases in the People's Republic of China: progress towards elimination

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, considerable progress has been made in the control and elimination of the country's initial set of 11 neglected tropical diseases. Indeed, elimination as a public health problem has been declared for lymphatic filariasis in 2007 and for trachoma in 2015. The remaining numbers of people affected by soil-transmitted helminth infection, clonorchiasis, taeniasis, and echinococcosis in 2015 were 29.1 million, 6.0 million, 366 200, and 166 100, respectively. In 2017, after more than 60 years of uninterrupted, multifaceted schistosomiasis control, has seen the number of cases dwindling from more than 10 million to 37 600. Meanwhile, about 6000 dengue cases are reported, while the incidence of leishmaniasis, leprosy, and rabies are down at 600 or fewer per year. Sustained social and economic development, going hand-in-hand with improvement of water, sanitation, and hygiene provide the foundation for continued progress, while rigorous surveillance and specific public health responses will consolidate achievements and shape the elimination agenda. Targets for poverty elimination and strategic plans and intervention packages post-2020 are important opportunities for further control and elimination, when remaining challenges call for sustainable efforts.

Editorial: Suicide and self-harm: advancing from science to preventing deaths

Globally, suicide is the second leading cause of death among youth ages 15-29-years, and self-harm is one of the strongest known predictors of death by suicide. This editorial introduces the Special Issue on suicide and self-harm, emphasizing the research and policy implications of the included articles. By illustrating advances in our science, the Special Issue both celebrates our achievements and highlights the need to use our science to inform suicide prevention policy and practice to reduce the tragedy of suicide and premature deaths.

Mortality among people with regular or problematic use of amphetamines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Amphetamines are the second most commonly used class of illicit drugs. We aimed to produce pooled estimates of mortality risks among people with regular or dependent use of amphetamines, with a focus upon all-cause mortality as well as specific causes of death.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis of cohorts of people with problematic use or dependence on amphetamines with data on all-cause or cause-specific mortality.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Of 4240 papers, 30 were eligible, reporting on 25 cohorts that measured all-cause mortality, drug poisoning, suicide, accidental injuries, homicide and cardiovascular mortality. Cohorts (n = 35-74 139) were in North America, several Nordic countries and Asia Pacific.

MEASUREMENT

Titles/abstracts were independently screened by one reviewer and excluded those reviewed by a second reviewer. Full-text screening was by two reviewers with discrepancies resolved via a third reviewer. We extracted data on crude mortality rates (CMR) per 100 person-years (py), standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). We imputed SMRs where possible if not reported by study authors. We also calculated mortality relative risks. Data were pooled using random-effects models; potential reasons for heterogeneity were explored using subgroup analyses and meta-regressions.

FINDINGS

Twenty-three cohorts contributed data for the pooled all-cause CMR: 1.14 per 100 py [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.92-1.42]. Pooled cause-specific mortality rates were: drug poisoning, 0.14 per 100 py (95% CI = 0.06-0.34); cardiovascular disease, 0.13 per 100 py (95% CI = 0.06-0.29); suicide, 0.20 per 100 py (95% CI = 0.07-0.55); accidental injury, 0.20 per 100 py (95% CI = 0.08-0.47) and homicide, 0.03 per 100 py (95% CI = 0.02-0.06). There was substantial heterogeneity for all pooled CMR estimates except homicide. The pooled all-cause SMR was 6.83 (95% CI = 5.27-8.84). Pooled cause-specific SMRS were: poisoning, 24.70 (95% CI = 16.67, 36.58); homicide, 11.90 (95% CI = 7.82-18.12); suicide, 12.20 (95% CI = 4.89-30.47); cardiovascular disease, 5.12 (95% CI = 3.74-7.00) and accidental injury, 5.12 (95% CI = 2.88-9.08).

CONCLUSIONS

People with regular or dependent amphetamine use are at elevated risk of a range of causes of mortality compared with people without regular or dependent amphetamine use.

A global view of hepatocellular carcinoma: trends, risk, prevention and management

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth most common cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Risk factors for HCC include chronic hepatitis B and hepatitis C, alcohol addiction, metabolic liver disease (particularly nonalcoholic fatty liver disease) and exposure to dietary toxins such as aflatoxins and aristolochic acid. All these risk factors are potentially preventable, highlighting the considerable potential of risk prevention for decreasing the global burden of HCC. HCC surveillance and early detection increase the chance of potentially curative treatment; however, HCC surveillance is substantially underutilized, even in countries with sufficient medical resources. Early-stage HCC can be treated curatively by local ablation, surgical resection or liver transplantation. Treatment selection depends on tumour characteristics, the severity of underlying liver dysfunction, age, other medical comorbidities, and available medical resources and local expertise. Catheter-based locoregional treatment is used in patients with intermediate-stage cancer. Kinase and immune checkpoint inhibitors have been shown to be effective treatment options in patients with advanced-stage HCC. Together, rational deployment of prevention, attainment of global goals for viral hepatitis eradication, and improvements in HCC surveillance and therapy hold promise for achieving a substantial reduction in the worldwide HCC burden within the next few decades.

Evidence for bidirectional and trans-synaptic parasympathetic and sympathetic propagation of alpha-synuclein in rats

The conversion of endogenous alpha-synuclein (asyn) to pathological asyn-enriched aggregates is a hallmark of Parkinson’s disease (PD). These inclusions can be detected in the central and enteric nervous system (ENS). Moreover, gastrointestinal symptoms can appear up to 20 years before the diagnosis of PD. The dual-hit hypothesis posits that pathological asyn aggregation starts in the ENS, and retrogradely spreads to the brain. In this study, we tested this hypothesis by directly injecting preformed asyn fibrils into the duodenum wall of wild-type rats and transgenic rats with excess levels of human asyn. We provide a meticulous characterization of the bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) transgenic rat model with respect to initial propagation of pathological asyn along the parasympathetic and sympathetic pathways to the brainstem, by performing immunohistochemistry at early time points post-injection. Induced pathology was observed in all key structures along the sympathetic and parasympathetic pathways (ENS, autonomic ganglia, intermediolateral nucleus of the spinal cord (IML), heart, dorsal motor nucleus of the vagus, and locus coeruleus (LC)) and persisted for at least 4 months post-injection. In contrast, asyn propagation was not detected in wild-type rats, nor in vehicle-injected BAC rats. The presence of pathology in the IML, LC, and heart indicate trans-synaptic spread of the pathology. Additionally, the observed asyn inclusions in the stomach and heart may indicate secondary anterograde propagation after initial retrograde spreading. In summary, trans-synaptic propagation of asyn in the BAC rat model is fully compatible with the “body-first hypothesis” of PD etiopathogenesis. To our knowledge, this is the first animal model evidence of asyn propagation to the heart, and the first indication of bidirectional asyn propagation via the vagus nerve, i.e., duodenum-to-brainstem-to-stomach. The BAC rat model could be very valuable for detailed mechanistic studies of the dual-hit hypothesis, and for studies of disease modifying therapies targeting early pathology in the gastrointestinal tract.

The carbon footprint of the Chinese health-care system: an environmentally extended input-output and structural path analysis study

BACKGROUND

The health sector plays an important part in adapting to climate change; however, the sector is also responsible for significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In high-income countries, the carbon footprints of health-care systems have been estimated to be 3-10% of the total national GHG emissions, but no in-depth investigation has been done for China. This study aims to examine the carbon footprint of the Chinese health-care system and identify emission hotspots.

METHODS

Environmentally extended input-output analysis and structural path analysis were used to assess the lifecycle GHG emissions of the Chinese health-care system. A satellite account of GHG emissions was constructed for 46 economic sectors in China using energy data from the National Bureau of Statistics based on the numbers reported by a large number of enterprises. Data on health expenditure for medical institutions, pharmaceuticals, construction, administration, and research were obtained from multiple Chinese official statistics yearbooks and the national input-output table.

FINDINGS

In 2012, China spent CNY 2539 billion on health care, leading to emissions of 315 (68% CI 267-363) megatonnes CO₂ equivalent. Health care accounted for 2·7% (68% CI 2·3-3·1) of China's total GHG emissions. The major contributors of GHG emissions in the health-care system were public hospitals (148 megatonnes [47%]), non-hospital purchased pharmaceuticals (56 megatonnes [18%]), and construction (46 megatonnes [15%]). In medical institutions, energy use for buildings and transport accounted for only 16% of the total carbon footprint, whereas 84% was embodied in the purchased goods and services.

INTERPRETATION

China has a much smaller health-care carbon footprint per capita than developed countries, such as the USA and Australia. However, its carbon emissions per unit of health expenditure are relatively high because of the expenditure structure and the carbon intensity of the country's entire economy. The results suggest the need for a nationwide carbon-efficient target for health care and use of low-carbon alternatives in making supply chain choices to achieve reductions in the carbon footprint.

FUNDING

Natural Science Foundation of China.

The association between five forms of child maltreatment and depressive and anxiety disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Child maltreatment is a global public health issue that encompasses physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect, and exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV). This systematic review and meta-analysis summarises the association between these five forms of child maltreatment and depressive and anxiety disorders.

METHODS

Published cohort and case-control studies were included if they reported associations between any form of child maltreatment (and/or a combination of), and depressive and anxiety disorders. A total of 604 studies were assessed for eligibility, 106 met inclusion criteria, and 96 were included in meta-analyses. The data were pooled in random effects meta-analyses, giving odds ratios (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each form of child maltreatment.

RESULTS

All forms of child maltreatment were associated with depressive disorders (any child maltreatment [OR = 2.48, 2.14-2.87]; sexual abuse [OR = 2.11, 1.83-2.44]; physical abuse [OR = 1.78, 1.57-2.01]; emotional abuse [OR = 2.35, 1.74-3.18]; neglect [OR = 1.65, 1.35-2.02]; and exposure to IPV [OR = 1.68, 1.34-2.10]). Several forms of child maltreatment were significantly associated with anxiety disorders ('any child maltreatment' [OR = 1.68, 1.33-2.4]; sexual abuse [OR = 1.90, 1.6-2.25]; physical abuse [OR = 1.56, 1.39-1.76]; and neglect [OR = 1.34, 1.09-1.65]). Significant associations were also found between several forms of child maltreatment and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a robust association between five forms of child maltreatment and the development of mental disorders. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) includes only sexual abuse as a risk factor for depressive and anxiety disorders. These findings support the inclusion of additional forms of child maltreatment as risk factors in GBD.

Preferences for a self-management e-health tool for patients with chronic kidney disease: results of a patient-oriented consensus workshop

BACKGROUND

Electronic health (e-health) tools may support patients' self-management of chronic kidney disease. We aimed to identify preferences of patients with chronic kidney disease, caregivers and health care providers regarding content and features for an e-health tool to support chronic kidney disease self-management.

METHODS

A patient-oriented research approach was taken, with 6 patient partners (5 patients and 1 caregiver) involved in study design, data collection and review of results. Patients, caregivers and clinicians from across Canada participated in a 1-day consensus workshop in June 2018. Using personas (fictional characters) and a cumulative voting technique, they identified preferences for content for 8 predetermined topics (understanding chronic kidney disease, diet, finances, medication, symptoms, travel, mental and physical health, work/school) and features for an e-health tool.

RESULTS

There were 24 participants, including 11 patients and 6 caregivers, from across Canada. The following content suggestions were ranked the highest: basic information about kidneys, chronic kidney disease and disease progression; reliable information on diet requirements for chronic kidney disease and comorbidities, renal-friendly foods; affordability of medication, equipment, food, financial resources and planning; common medications, adverse effects, indications, cost and coverage; symptom types and management; travel limitations, insurance, access to health care, travel checklists; screening and supports to address mental health, cultural sensitivity, adjusting to new normal; and support to help integrate at work/school, restrictions. Preferred features included visuals, the ability to enter and track health information and interact with health care providers, "on-the-go" access, links to resources and access to personal health information.

INTERPRETATION

A consensus workshop developed around personas was successful for identifying detailed subject matter for 8 predetermined topic areas, as well as preferred features to consider in the codevelopment of a chronic kidney disease self-management e-health tool. The use of personas could be applied to other applications in patient-oriented research exploring patient preferences and needs in order to improve care and relevant outcomes.

High quality health systems in the SDG era: Country-specific priorities for improving quality of care

Hannah Leslie and co-authors discuss priorities in individual countries for health system reform.

Clinical utility of HBV surface antigen quantification in HBV e antigen-negative chronic HBV infection

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a serious problem owing to its worldwide distribution and potential adverse sequelae that include cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. Current antiviral therapies have much improved outcomes, but few patients achieve the ultimate goal of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss (functional cure). As hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative chronic HBV infection is the final phase prior to HBsAg loss, the management of patients in this phase together with quantification of HBsAg has attracted increasing clinical and research interest. This Review integrates the findings from research in HBsAg kinetics and discusses how they might inform our understanding and management of HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection. Studies have shown that HBsAg levels are highly predictive of the presence of inactive HBV infection and that serial changes in HBsAg levels might predict HBsAg loss within 1-3 years. Data also suggest that quantitative HBsAg monitoring is important during hepatitis flare and antiviral therapy, especially in the timing of the decision to stop therapy and to start off-therapy retreatment. These findings have shed new light on the natural course of HBV infection and might lead to optimization of the management of HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection and contribute to the paradigm shift from indefinite to finite therapy for patients with HBV infection.

Moderate alcohol consumption and lower total mortality risk: Justified doubts or established facts?

For almost a century, the scientific community is aware of the J-shaped curve between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality. Moderate drinkers seem to live longer than both abstainers and heavy drinkers. These epidemiological observations regarding moderate alcohol consumption and beneficial health effects have been incessantly scrutinised for confounding and bias. This viewpoint discusses previous and recent criticisms regarding the J-shaped curve between alcohol consumption and total mortality risk. The controversies regarding the J-shaped curve between alcohol consumption and mortality are ongoing, as well as the debate among scientists in this area of research, resulting in conflicting messages in media and in different alcohol guidelines. Although it appears quite difficult to come up with a position statement only based on the currently available scientific data, it is imperative to fairly inform the public, without creating confusion and, worst case, disbelief in science.

Psychological morbidity and chronic disease among adults with nontraumatic spinal cord injuries: a cohort study of privately insured beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Individuals living with a spinal cord injury (SCI) are at heightened risk for a number of chronic health conditions such as secondary comorbidities that may develop or be influenced by the injury, the presence of impairment, and/or the process of aging. However, very little is known about the development of secondary comorbidities among individuals living with nontraumatic SCIs (NTSCIs).

PURPOSE

The objective of this study was to compare the prevalence of psychological morbidities and chronic diseases among adults with and without NTSCIs.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional cohort from a nationwide insurance claims database.

METHODS

Privately insured beneficiaries were included if they had an ICD-9-CM diagnostic code for a NTSCI and accompanying diagnosis of paraplegia, tetraplegia, quadriplegia, or unspecified paralysis (n=10,006). Adults without SCIs were also included (n=779,545). Prevalence estimates of common psychological morbidities, chronic diseases, and multimorbidity (≥2 conditions) were compared.

RESULTS

Adults with NTSCIs had a higher prevalence of adjustment reaction (11.4% vs 5.1%), anxiety disorders (23.7% vs 14.5%), depressive disorders (31.6% vs 9.6%), drug dependence (3.4% vs 0.8%), episodic mood disorders (15.9% vs 5.4%), central pain syndrome (1% vs 0%), psychogenic pain (1.9% vs 0.2%), dementia (5.2% vs 1.5%), and psychological multimorbidity (29.3% vs 11.6%), as compared to adults without SCIs. The adjusted odds of psychological multimorbidity were 1.86 (95% confidence interval: 1.76-2.00). Adults with NTSCIs also had a significantly higher prevalence of all chronic diseases and chronic disease multimorbidity (73.5% vs 18%), except HIV/AIDS. After propensity matching for age, education, race, sex, and the chronic diseases (n=7,419 matched pairs), there was still a higher prevalence of adjustment reaction (9.2% vs 5.4%), depressive symptoms (23.5% vs 16.0%), central pain syndrome (1% vs 0%), psychogenic pain (1.5% vs 0.3%), and psychological multimorbidity (20.2% vs 17.4%) among adults with NTSCIs.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults with NTSCIs have a significantly increased prevalence of psychological morbidities, chronic disease, and multimorbidity, as compared to adults without SCIs. Efforts are needed to facilitate the development of improved clinical screening algorithms and early interventions to reduce risk of disease onset/progression in this higher risk population.

The microbiology of pleural infection in adults: a systematic review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Pleural infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among adults. Identification of the offending organism is key to appropriate antimicrobial therapy. It is not known whether the microbiological pattern of pleural infection is variable temporally or geographically. This systematic review aimed to investigate available literature to understand the worldwide pattern of microbiology and the factors that might affect such pattern.

DATA SOURCES AND ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Ovid MEDLINE and Embase were searched between 2000 and 2018 for publications that reported on the microbiology of pleural infection in adults. Both observational and interventional studies were included. Studies were excluded if the main focus of the report was paediatric population, tuberculous empyema or post-operative empyema.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

Studies of ≥20 patients with clear reporting of microbial isolates were included. The numbers of isolates of each specific organism/group were collated from the included studies. Besides the overall presentation of data, subgroup analyses by geographical distribution, infection setting (community versus hospital) and time of the report were performed.

RESULTS

From 20 980 reports returned by the initial search, 75 articles reporting on 10 241 patients were included in the data synthesis. The most common organism reported worldwide was Staphylococcus aureus. Geographically, pneumococci and viridans streptococci were the most commonly reported isolates from tropical and temperate regions, respectively. The microbiological pattern was considerably different between community- and hospital-acquired infections, where more Gram-negative and drug-resistant isolates were reported in the hospital-acquired infections. The main limitations of this systematic review were the heterogeneity in the method of reporting of certain bacteria and the predominance of reports from Europe and South East Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

In pleural infection, the geographical location and the setting of infection have considerable bearing on the expected causative organisms. This should be reflected in the choice of empirical antimicrobial treatment.

Distinguishing suicide ideation from suicide attempts: Further test of the Integrated Motivational-Volitional Model of Suicidal Behaviour

Suicidal behaviour poses a significant public health concern. Research into the factors that distinguish between the emergence of suicide ideation and the enactment of a suicide attempt is crucial. This study tests central tenets of the Integrated Motivational-Volitional Model of suicidal behaviour (IMV, O'Connor and Kirtley, 2018) which posits that volitional phase factors govern the transition from thinking to attempting suicide. 299 adults completed a face-to-face interview and were allocated to groups based on their suicidal history: Suicide attempt group (N = 100), suicide ideation group (N = 105), and a control group (N = 94). Measures were taken at baseline, at 1-month and 6-months follow-up. As predicted, the attempt group differed from the ideation group on all volitional phase factors. Those who had attempted suicide reported higher capability for suicide, were more likely to have a family member or friend who had self-injured or attempted suicide, and were more impulsive. In keeping with the IMV model, the ideation and attempt groups had similar scores on the motivational factors. Defeat and entrapment were significant predictors of ideation at baseline, and mediation analyses indicated that defeat had an indirect effect on ideation through entrapment at baseline and at 1-month follow-up. The results support the IMV model and suggest that entrapment should be routinely included in suicide risk assessments. Further research to test predictors of the transition from suicide ideation to suicide attempts is crucial to inform future intervention development and health care delivery.

Dietary Intake, Adherence to Mediterranean Diet and Lifestyle-Related Factors in People with Schizophrenia

The purpose of this study was to examine the dietary intake of both inpatients and outpatients with schizophrenia in the Portuguese population as a potential key contributing factor to the poor physical health profiles, and understand the relationship of diet quality to other lifestyle factors. Participants of this cross-sectional study completed a semi quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Diet quality was determined by adherence to the Mediterranean Diet. In addition participants completed the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short-Form and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Tobacco smoking was assessed through a series of general questions. A total of 100 patients (50% inpatients and 28% female) with schizophrenia were included in the final analysis. Patients reported a high consumption of caffeine, while deficits were evident for fibre and folate intakes, when compared to the European Food Safety Authority recommendations. Both inpatients and outpatients reported poor to moderate diet quality. Smokers reported poorer diet quality when compared to non-smokers (p < 0.001). Dietary intake, and its relationship to other lifestyle components, should be considered for intervention, in order to improve physical health of people living with schizophrenia.

Impact of different types of olive oil on cardiovascular risk factors: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

This network meta-analysis (NMA) compares the effects of different types of olive oil (OO) on cardiovascular risk factors.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Literature search was conducted on three electronic databases (Medline, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central).

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (≥3 weeks duration of intervention) comparing at least two of the following types of OO: refined OO (ROO), mixed OO (MOO), low phenolic (extra) virgin OO (LP(E)VOO), and high phenolic (extra) virgin OO (HP(E)VOO). Random-effects NMA was performed for seven outcomes; and surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) was estimated, using an analytical approach (P-score). Thirteen RCTs (16 reports) with 611 mainly healthy participants (mean age: 26-70 years) were identified. No differences for total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triacylglycerols, and diastolic blood pressure were observed comparing ROO, MOO, LP(E)VOO and HP(E)VOO. HP(E)VOO slightly reduce LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) compared to LP(E)VOO (mean difference [MD]: -0.14 mmol/L, 95%-CI: -0.28, -0.01). Both, HP(E)VOO and LP(E)VOO reduces SBP compared to ROO (range of MD: -2.99 to -2.87 mmHg), and HP(E)VOO may improve oxidized LDL-cholesterol (oxLDL-C) compared to ROO (standardized MD: -0.68, 95%-CI: -1.31, -0.04). In secondary analyses, EVOO may reduce oxLDL-C compared to ROO, and a dose-response relationship between higher intakes of phenolic compounds from OO and lower SBP and oxLDL-C values was detected. HP(E)VOO was ranked as best treatment for LDL-C (P-score: 0.83), oxLDL-C (0.88), and SBP (0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

HP(E)VOO may improve some cardiovascular risk factors, however, public health implications are limited by overall low or moderate certainty of evidence.

Costs and cost-effectiveness analyses of mCARE strategies for promoting care seeking of maternal and newborn health services in rural Bangladesh

Objective

We examined the incremental cost-effectiveness between two mHealth programs, implemented from 2011 to 2015 in rural Bangladesh: (1) Comprehensive mCARE package as an intervention group and (2) Basic mCARE package as a control group.

Methods

Both programs included a core package of census enumeration and pregnancy surveillance provided by an established cadre of digitally enabled community health workers (CHWs). In the comprehensive mCARE package, short message service (SMS) and home visit reminders were additionally sent to pregnant women (n = 610) and CHWs (n = 70) to promote the pregnant women’s care-seeking of essential maternal and newborn care services. Economic costs were assessed from a program perspective inclusive of development, start-up, and implementation phases. Effects were calculated as disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and the number of newborn deaths averted. For comparative purposes, we normalized our evaluation to estimate total costs and total newborn deaths averted per 1 million people in a community for both groups. Uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analyses with Monte Carlo simulation.

Results

The addition of SMS and home visit reminders based on a mobile phone-facilitated pregnancy surveillance system was highly cost effective at a cost per DALY averted of $31 (95% uncertainty range: $19–81). The comprehensive mCARE program had at least 88% probability of being highly cost-effective as compared to the basic mCARE program based on the threshold of Bangladesh’s GDP per capita.

Conclusion

mHealth strategies such as SMS and home visit reminders on a well-established pregnancy surveillance system may improve service utilization and program cost-effectiveness in low-resource settings.

The inheritance of cardiovascular disease risk

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is foremost among the non-communicable diseases (NCDs) which account for 71% of deaths globally each year. CVD is also prominent among the pre-existing conditions still accounting for nearly 25% of maternal deaths and is linked to gestational diabetes and pre-eclampsia. Markers of CVD risk have been reported even in young children, related to prenatal factors such as mother's diet or body composition. The underlying mechanisms include epigenetic changes which can alter the trajectory of risk across the life course. Preventive interventions need to commence before conception, to reduce transmission of CVD risk by promoting healthy behaviours in prospective parents, as well as in pregnancy, and postpartum through breastfeeding and healthy complementary feeding. Surprisingly, these opportunities are not emphasised in the 2018 United Nations Political Declaration on NCDs. NCDs such as CVD have communicable risk components transmitted across generations by socio-economic as well as biological factors, although the former can also become embodied in the offspring by epigenetic mechanisms. The inheritance of CVD risk, and social inequalities in such risk, thus raises wider questions about responsibility for the health of future generations at societal as well as individual levels.

The impact of HBV flare on the outcome of HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients with bacterial infection

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) flare can occur in HBV patients either naïve or have interruption to treatment. Bacterial infection (BI) is a common complication of cirrhosis with potential severe outcomes. We aimed to assess the impact of HBV flare on the outcome of patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and BI.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study from 2 tertiary academic hospitals in Shanghai, China of HBV patients admitted with or developed BI during admission. The characteristics of BI, prevalence of HBV flare, its impact on organ failure, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and 90-day survival were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 360 hospitalized patients (median age: 50 years, male: 79%, BI: at admission: 58.6%; during admission: 41.4%) were included. All patients including those with HBV flare (21%) received antiviral therapy after admission. Patients with HBV flare and BI had significantly higher percentage of liver (93.3% vs 48.8%), coagulation (64.0% vs 39.6%), cerebral (40.0% vs 21.8%) (all P < 0.01), and kidney failure (38.7% vs 26.3%, P < 0.05) compared to BI alone, associated with a higher risk of developing ACLF with a subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) of 2.23 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.68-2.96). Multivariate analysis showed that ACLF development was the strongest risk factor for 90-day mortality (sHR, 95%CI: 7.36, 4.12-13.16).

CONCLUSIONS

In HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis patients admitted with BI, HBV flare increased the risk of additional organ failures and ACLF, raising the risk of 90-day mortality by seven-fold. Optimization of HBV treatment in these patients should minimize the risk of HBV flare with improved outcomes.

The number of acute cerebrovascular events in Israel: a forecast until 2040

BACKGROUND

Acute cerebrovascular event is one of the leading causes of death in Israel and is the primary cause of neurological disability in adults. Although some evidence indicates that the incidence rate of acute cerebrovascular events in developed countries is stable or has been decreasing over the past decades, the number of events is expected to increase in these countries due to projected changes in size and composition of the population. The purpose of this study was to provide a forecast of the number of acute cerebrovascular events in Israel for the coming decades.

METHODS

We used data from the National Stroke Registry at the Israel Center for Disease Control and data from the long-term population forecasts of the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. We generated forecasts of the annual number of acute cerebrovascular events based on the mean annual incidence rates during 2014-2016 within population subgroups defined by gender, age, and ethnicity, and on the projected population size of these subgroups for 2015-2040. The forecasts were generated for various assumptions as to trends in the incidence rate and for alternatives as to the projected population growth.

RESULTS

Based on the intermediate population growth alternative, the annual number of acute cerebrovascular events is expected to increase from 18,400 to 38,500, 34,800 or 26,400 events, assuming constant annual incidence rates, decreasing annual incidence rates at a rate of 2% every 5 years, or decreasing annual incidence rates at a rate of 7.25% every 5 years, respectively. Whereas, presently, events affecting Arab patients account for 15% of acute cerebrovascular events and events affecting patients over 80 account for 33% of acute cerebrovascular events, by 2040 events affecting Arab patients will account for more than 21% of the events and events affecting patients over 80 will account for 42% of the events.

CONCLUSIONS

In view of the expected increase in the number of acute cerebrovascular events and the changes in the demographic composition of adults suffering from such events, and in order to allow for optimal care and equity, it is imperative to evaluate the preparedness of care provision and the geographical deployment of treatment services in the short and long term.

Transforming growth factor-β promotes basement membrane fibrosis, alters perivascular cerebrospinal fluid distribution, and worsens neurological recovery in the aged brain after stroke

Aging and stroke alter the composition of the basement membrane and reduce the perivascular distribution of cerebrospinal fluid and solutes, which may contribute to poor functional recovery in elderly patients. Following stroke, TGF-β induces astrocyte activation and subsequent glial scar development. This is dysregulated with aging and could lead to chronic, detrimental changes within the basement membrane. We hypothesized that TGF-β induces basement membrane fibrosis after stroke, leading to impaired perivascular CSF distribution and poor functional recovery in aged animals. We found that CSF entered the aged brain along perivascular tracts; this process was reduced by experimental stroke and was rescued by TGF-β receptor inhibition. Brain fibronectin levels increased with experimental stroke, which was reversed with inhibitor treatment. Exogenous TGF-β stimulation increased fibronectin expression, both in vivo and in primary cultured astrocytes. Oxygen-glucose deprivation of cultured astrocytes induced multiple changes in genes related to astrocyte activation and extracellular matrix production. Finally, in stroke patients, we found that serum TGF-β levels correlated with poorer functional outcomes, suggesting that serum levels may act as a biomarker for functional recovery. These results support a potential new treatment strategy to enhance recovery in elderly stroke patients.

Improving and Expanding Estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Due to Environmental Health Risk Factors

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), produces influential, data-driven estimates of the burden of disease and premature death due to major risk factors. Expanded quantification of disease due to environmental health (EH) risk factors, including climate change, will enhance accuracy of GBD estimates, which will contribute to developing cost-effective policies that promote prevention and achieving Sustainable Development Goals.

OBJECTIVES

We review key aspects of the GBD for the EH community and introduce the Global Burden of Disease-Pollution and Health Initiative (GBD-PHI), which aims to work with IHME and the GBD study to improve estimates of disease burden attributable to EH risk factors and to develop an innovative approach to estimating climate-related disease burden-both current and projected.

METHODS

We discuss strategies for improving GBD quantification of specific EH risk factors, including air pollution, lead, and climate change. We highlight key methodological challenges, including new EH risk factors, notably evidence rating and global exposure assessment.

DISCUSSION

A number of issues present challenges to the scope and accuracy of current GBD estimates for EH risk factors. For air pollution, minimal data exist on the exposure-risk relationships associated with high levels of pollution; epidemiological studies in high pollution regions should be a research priority. For lead, the GBD's current methods do not fully account for lead's impact on neurodevelopment; innovative methods to account for subclinical effects are needed. Decisions on inclusion of additional EH risk-outcome pairs need to be guided by findings of systematic reviews, the size of exposed populations, feasibility of global exposure estimates, and predicted trends in exposures and diseases. Neurotoxicants, endocrine-disrupting chemicals, and climate-related factors should be high priorities for incorporation into upcoming iterations of the GBD study. Enhancing the scope and methods will improve the GBD's estimates and better guide prevention policy. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5496.

Sequence variability of HCV 3a isolates based on core gene in patients from Lahore, Pakistan

Aim: To investigate the HCV 3a core sequence variation and amino acid substitutions of patients from Lahore, Pakistan. Materials & methods: Blood samples from HCV positive patients (n = 232) were collected for viral genotypes. Moreover, the nucleotide sequencing was performed for core gene of 20 samples. Results: Viral genotyping showed that 69.82% (n = 162) belonged to 3a genotype, 9.05% (1a; n = 21), 2.15% (3b; n = 5) and 18.98% were untypable (n = 44). Phylogenetic analyses suggest majority of our isolates clustered with previously reported reference isolates from Pakistan. The remaining isolates clustered with HCV-core sequences reported from Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, Iran, USA, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Morocco. Conclusion: We report HCV-core substitutions (G60E, R70Q, C91A, A94Q and Q63E/D) that could be associated with treatment response in Pakistani patients.

Ambulatory independence is associated with higher incidence of latent tuberculosis infection in long-term care facilities in Taiwan

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Tuberculosis (TB) in the elderly population remains a major challenge in areas with intermediate disease burden like Taiwan. Despite the increasing burden and high risks of TB in the elderly population, particularly those living in long-term care facilities (LTCFs), diagnostic testing for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has not been carefully evaluated in this group. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and predictors of LTBI in older adults living in LTCFs.

METHODS

Older adults living in seven LTCFs in Taiwan were prospectively enrolled between January and July 2017. Interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) through QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-tube was used to determine presence of LTBI. Predictors for LTBI were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 258 participants were enrolled, including 240 older residents (mean age, 81.6 years; male, 51.2%) and 18 employees (mean age, 64.8 years; male, 22.2%). The proportion of independent status in ambulation assessments significantly declined with aging (p < 0.001). The IGRA-positivity rate in LTCFs was 31.4% (81/258), which consisted of 73 (30.4%) residents and 8 (44.4%) employees. The IGRA results were different with respect to the ambulation status (p = 0.052). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the only independent predictor of LTBI among older adults in LTCFs was independent ambulation (odds ratio, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-4.28; p = 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a high prevalence of LTBI among older adults in LTCFs in Taiwan. Independent ambulation was the only independent predictor of LTBI.