Comparison of 30-day mortality models for profiling hospital performance in acute ischemic stroke with vs without adjustment for stroke severity

Impact of Rurality and Geographical Accessibility on Stroke Care and Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Providing equitable health care to rural stroke patients is challenging and associated with less intervention and poorer outcomes. We assessed how several distinct patient-related geographic classifications influenced stroke care and outcomes in Scotland, United Kingdom.

METHODS

We conducted a population-level data-linkage study of ischemic stroke patients admitted to the hospital (2010-2018). Geographic classifications included 2 binary (urban versus rural; accessible versus remote) and 1 six-category classification encompassing both rurality and accessibility (large urban areas, other urban areas, accessible small towns, remote small towns, accessible rural areas, and remote rural areas). Process outcomes included achievement of a stroke care bundle and thrombolysis administration. Clinical outcomes included 30-day discharge from hospital care, 90-day home time, inpatient and 1-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

We included 42 917 ischemic stroke patients (35 766 urban and 7151 rural). Binary classifications of rurality or accessibility missed important differences in stroke care and outcomes revealed using 6-category classification. Using the latter, compared with large urban areas, patients in accessible rural areas were more likely to receive a complete stroke care bundle (adjusted odds ratio, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.12-1.31]); patients in remote rural areas were less likely (adjusted odds ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.78-0.93]). Compared with large urban areas, 30-day discharge from hospital care was more likely for patients residing elsewhere (eg, remote rural areas adjusted subdistribution hazards ratio, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.05-1.17]); home time within 90 days was higher for other urban areas (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.07]) and accessible rural areas (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.06]); and 1-year mortality was less likely in other urban areas (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.98]) and remote small towns (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.80-0.99]).

CONCLUSIONS

When considering geographic disparities in stroke care and outcomes across Scotland, it is important to account for both home location and accessibility of care. Despite patients residing in remote rural areas being less likely to achieve a complete stroke care bundle, this did not translate into poorer outcomes.

Development and Application of New Risk-Adjustment Models to Improve the Current Model for Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in South Korea

PURPOSE

This study assessed the validity of the hospital standardized mortality ratio (HSMR) risk-adjusted model by comparing models that include clinical information and the current model based on administrative information in South Korea.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The data of 53976 inpatients were analyzed. The current HSMR risk-adjusted model (Model 1) adjusts for sex, age, health coverage, emergency hospitalization status, main diagnosis, surgery status, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) using administrative data. As candidate variables, among clinical information, the American Society of Anesthesiologists score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3, present on admission CCI, and cancer stage were collected. Surgery status, intensive care in the intensive care unit, and CCI were selected as proxy variables among administrative data. In-hospital death was defined as the dependent variable, and a logistic regression analysis was performed. The statistical performance of each model was compared using C-index values.

RESULTS

There was a strong correlation between variables in the administrative data and those in the medical records. The C-index of the existing model (Model 1) was 0.785; Model 2, which included all clinical data, had a higher C-index of 0.857. In Model 4, in which APACHE II and SAPS 3 were replaced with variables recorded in the administrative data from Model 2, the C-index further increased to 0.863.

CONCLUSION

The HSMR assessment model improved when clinical data were adjusted. Simultaneously, the validity of the evaluation method could be secured even if some of the clinical information was replaced with the information in the administrative data.

Validation of the Passive Surveillance Stroke Severity Score in Three Canadian Provinces

BACKGROUND

Stroke outcomes research requires risk-adjustment for stroke severity, but this measure is often unavailable. The Passive Surveillance Stroke SeVerity (PaSSV) score is an administrative data-based stroke severity measure that was developed in Ontario, Canada. We assessed the geographical and temporal external validity of PaSSV in British Columbia (BC), Nova Scotia (NS) and Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We used linked administrative data in each province to identify adult patients with ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage between 2014-2019 and calculated their PaSSV score. We used Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the association between the PaSSV score and the hazard of death over 30 days and the cause-specific hazard of admission to long-term care over 365 days. We assessed the models' discriminative values using Uno's c-statistic, comparing models with versus without PaSSV.

RESULTS

We included 86,142 patients (n = 18,387 in BC, n = 65,082 in Ontario, n = 2,673 in NS). The mean and median PaSSV were similar across provinces. A higher PaSSV score, representing lower stroke severity, was associated with a lower hazard of death (hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals 0.70 [0.68, 0.71] in BC, 0.69 [0.68, 0.69] in Ontario, 0.72 [0.68, 0.75] in NS) and admission to long-term care (0.77 [0.76, 0.79] in BC, 0.84 [0.83, 0.85] in Ontario, 0.86 [0.79, 0.93] in NS). Including PaSSV in the multivariable models increased the c-statistics compared to models without this variable.

CONCLUSION

PaSSV has geographical and temporal validity, making it useful for risk-adjustment in stroke outcomes research, including in multi-jurisdiction analyses.

Change in Hospital Risk-Standardized Stroke Mortality Performance With and Without the Passive Surveillance Stroke Severity Score

BACKGROUND

Adjustment for baseline stroke severity is necessary for accurate assessment of hospital performance. We evaluated whether adjusting for the Passive Surveillance Stroke SeVerity (PaSSV) score, a measure of stroke severity derived using administrative data, changed hospital-specific estimated 30-day risk-standardized mortality rate (RSMR) after stroke.

METHODS

We used linked administrative data to identify adults who were hospitalized with ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage across 157 hospitals in Ontario, Canada between 2014 and 2019. We fitted a random effects logistic regression model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate hospital-specific 30-day RSMR and 95% credible intervals with adjustment for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, and stroke type. In a separate model, we additionally adjusted for stroke severity using PaSSV. Hospitals were defined as low-performing, average-performing, or high-performing depending on whether the RSMR and 95% credible interval were above, overlapping, or below the cohort's crude mortality rate.

RESULTS

We identified 65,082 patients [48.0% were female, the median age (25th,75th percentiles) was 76 years (65,84), and 86.4% had an ischemic stroke]. The crude 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 14.1%. The inclusion of PaSSV in the model reclassified 18.5% (n=29) of the hospitals. Of the 143 hospitals initially classified as average-performing, after adjustment for PaSSV, 20 were reclassified as high-performing and 8 were reclassified as low-performing. Of the 4 hospitals initially classified as low-performing, 1 was reclassified as high-performing. All 10 hospitals initially classified as high-performing remained unchanged.

CONCLUSION

PaSSV may be useful for risk-adjusting mortality when comparing hospital performance. External validation of our findings in other jurisdictions is needed.

Characterisation of young stroke presentations, pathways of care, and support for 'invisible' difficulties: a retrospective clinical audit study

Background Young stroke survivors are likely to be discharged home from acute hospital care without rehabilitation more quickly than older survivors, but it is not clear why. File-audit studies capturing real-world clinical practice are lacking for this cohort. We aimed to compare characteristics and care pathways of young and older survivors and describe stroke presentations and predictors of pathways of care in young survivors (≤45years), including a focus on care received for 'invisible' (cognitive, psychological) difficulties. Methods A retrospective audit of 847 medical records (67 young stroke survivors, mean age=36years; 780 older patients, mean age=70years) was completed for stroke survivors admitted to an Australian tertiary hospital. Stroke characteristics and presence of cognitive difficulties (identified through clinician opinion or cognitive screening) were used to predict length of stay and discharge destination in young stroke survivors. Results There were no differences in length of stay between young and older survivors, however, young stroke survivors were more likely to be discharged home without rehabilitation (though this may be due to milder strokes observed in young stroke survivors). For young stroke survivors, stroke severity and age predicted discharge destination, while cognitive difficulties predicted longer length of stay. While almost all young survivors were offered occupational therapy and physiotherapy, none received psychological input (clinical, health or neuropsychology). Conclusions Cognitive and psychological needs of young stroke survivors may remain largely unmet by a service model designed for older people. Findings can inform service development or models of care, such as the new Australian Young Stroke Service designed to better meet the needs of young survivors.

Twenty Years of Get With The Guidelines-Stroke: Celebrating Past Successes, Lessons Learned, and Future Challenges

The Get With The Guidelines-Stroke program which, began 20 years ago, is one of the largest and most important nationally representative disease registries in the United States. Its importance to the stroke community can be gauged by its sustained growth and widespread dissemination of findings that demonstrate sustained increases in both the quality of care and patient outcomes over time. The objectives of this narrative review are to provide a brief history of Get With The Guidelines-Stroke, summarize its major successes and impact, and highlight lessons learned. Looking to the next 20 years, we discuss potential challenges and opportunities for the program.

Development and internal validation of machine learning-based models and external validation of existing risk scores for outcome prediction in patients with ischaemic stroke

Aims

We developed new machine learning (ML) models and externally validated existing statistical models [ischaemic stroke predictive risk score (iScore) and totalled health risks in vascular events (THRIVE) scores] for predicting the composite of recurrent stroke or all-cause mortality at 90 days and at 3 years after hospitalization for first acute ischaemic stroke (AIS).

Methods and results

In adults hospitalized with AIS from January 2005 to November 2016, with follow-up until November 2019, we developed three ML models [random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST)] and externally validated the iScore and THRIVE scores for predicting the composite outcomes after AIS hospitalization, using data from 721 patients and 90 potential predictor variables. At 90 days and 3 years, 11 and 34% of patients, respectively, reached the composite outcome. For the 90-day prediction, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.779 for RF, 0.771 for SVM, 0.772 for XGBOOST, 0.720 for iScore, and 0.664 for THRIVE. For 3-year prediction, the AUC was 0.743 for RF, 0.777 for SVM, 0.773 for XGBOOST, 0.710 for iScore, and 0.675 for THRIVE.

Conclusion

The study provided three ML-based predictive models that achieved good discrimination and clinical usefulness in outcome prediction after AIS and broadened the application of the iScore and THRIVE scoring system for long-term outcome prediction. Our findings warrant comparative analyses of ML and existing statistical method-based risk prediction tools for outcome prediction after AIS in new data sets.

Trends in Stroke Thrombolysis Care Metrics and Outcomes by Race and Ethnicity, 2003-2021

Importance

Understanding is needed of racial and ethnic-specific trends in care quality and outcomes associated with the US nationwide quality initiative Target: Stroke (TS) in targeting thrombolysis treatment for acute ischemic stroke.

Objective

To examine whether the TS quality initiative was associated with improvement in thrombolysis metrics and outcomes across racial and ethnic groups.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included patients who presented within 4.5 hours of ischemic stroke onset at hospitals participating in the Get With The Guidelines-Stroke initiative from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2021. The data analysis was performed between December 15, 2022, and November 27, 2023.

Exposures

TS phases I (2010-2013), II (2014-2018), and III (2019-2021).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were thrombolysis rates and time metrics. Patient function and mortality were secondary outcomes.

Results

Analyses included 1 189 234 patients, of whom 1 053 539 arrived to the hospital within 4.5 hours. The cohort included 50.4% female and 49.6% male patients and 2.8% Asian [median (IQR) age, 72 (61-82) years], 15.2% Black [median (IQR) age, 64 (54-75) years], 7.3% Hispanic [median (IQR) age, 68 (56-79) years], and 74.1% White [median (IQR) age, 75 (63-84) years] patients). Unadjusted thrombolysis rates increased in both the pre-TS (2003-2009) and TS periods in all racial and ethnic groups from 10% to 15% in 2003 to 43% to 46% in 2021, but disparities were observed in adjusted analyses and persisted in TS phase III, with Asian, Black, and Hispanic patients having significantly lower odds of receiving thrombolysis than White patients (adjusted odds ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.81-0.90], 0.76 [95% CI, 0.74-0.78], and 0.86 [95% CI, 0.83-0.89], respectively). Door-to-needle (DTN) times improved in all racial and ethnic groups during TS, with DTN times of 60 minutes or less increasing from 26% to 28% in 2009 to 66% to 72% in 2021. However, in adjusted analyses, racial and ethnic disparities emerged. During TS phase III, compared with White patients, Asian, Black, and Hispanic patients had significantly lower odds of receiving thrombolysis with a DTN time of 60 minutes or less compared with White patients (risk-adjusted odds ratios, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.84-0.98], 0.78 [95% CI, 0.75-0.81], and 0.87 [95% CI, 0.83-0.92], respectively). During TS, clinical outcomes improved for all racial and ethnic groups from pre-TS, with TS phase III showing higher odds of ambulation at discharge among Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White patients. Asian, Black, and Hispanic patients were less likely to present within 4.5 hours.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of patients with ischemic stroke, the TS quality initiative was associated with improvement in thrombolysis frequency, timeliness, and outcomes for all racial and ethnic groups. However, disparities persisted, indicating a need for further interventions.

Frequency of Intubation for Medicare Beneficiaries With Acute Stroke and Association With Patient Outcomes

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Intubation for acute stroke is common in the United States, with few established guidelines.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study of acute stroke admissions from 2011 to 2018 among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 65-100 years. Patient demographics and chronic conditions as well as hospital characteristics were identified. We identified patient intubation, stroke subtype (ischemic vs intracerebral hemorrhage), and thrombectomy. Factors associated with intubation were identified by a linear probability model with intubation as the outcome and patient characteristics, stroke subtype, and thrombectomy as predictors, adjusting for within-hospital correlation. We compared hospital characteristics between adjusted intubation rate quartiles. We specified a linear probability model with 30-day mortality as the patient-level outcome and hospital intubation rate quartile as the categorical predictor, again adjusting for patient characteristics. We specified an analogous model for quartiles of hospital referral regions.

RESULTS

There were 800,467 stroke hospitalizations at 3,581 hospitals. Among 2,588 hospitals with 25 or more stroke hospitalizations, the median intubation rate was 4.8%, while a quarter had intubation rates below 2.4% and 10% had rates above 12.5%. Ischemic strokes had a 21% lower adjusted intubation risk than intracerebral hemorrhages (risk difference [RD] -21.1%, 95% CI -21.3% to -20.9%; p < 0.001), whereas thrombectomy was associated with a 19.2% higher adjusted risk (95% CI RD 18.8%-19.6%; p < 0.001). Women and older patients had lower intubation rates. Large, urban hospitals and academic medical centers were overrepresented in the top quartile of hospital adjusted intubation rates. Even after adjusting for available characteristics, intubated patients had a 44% higher mortality risk than non-intubated patients (p < 0.001). Hospitals in the highest intubation quartile had higher adjusted 30-day mortality (19.3%) than hospitals in the lowest quartile (16.7%), a finding that was similar when restricting to major teaching hospitals (22.3% vs 18.1% in the 4th vs 1st quartiles, respectively). There was no association between market quartile of intubation and patient 30-day mortality.

DISCUSSION

Intubation for acute stroke varied by patient and hospital characteristics. Hospitals with higher adjusted rates of intubation had higher patient-level 30-day mortality, but much of the difference may be due to unmeasured patient severity given that no such association was observed for health care markets.

Clinical Performance Measures for Emergency Department Care for Adults With Intracranial Hemorrhage

Though select inpatient-based performance measures exist for the care of patients with nontraumatic intracranial hemorrhage, emergency departments lack measurement instruments designed to support and improve care processes in the hyperacute phase. To address this, we propose a set of measures applying a syndromic (rather than diagnosis-based) approach informed by performance data from a national sample of community EDs participating in the Emergency Quality Network Stroke Initiative. To develop the measure set, we convened a workgroup of experts in acute neurologic emergencies. The group considered the appropriate use case for each proposed measure: internal quality improvement, benchmarking, or accountability, and examined data from Emergency Quality Network Stroke Initiative-participating EDs to consider the validity and feasibility of proposed measures for quality measurement and improvement applications. The initially conceived set included 14 measure concepts, of which 7 were selected for inclusion in the measure set after a review of data and further deliberation. Proposed measures include 2 for quality improvement, benchmarking, and accountability (Last 2 Recorded Systolic Blood Pressure Measurements Under 150 and Platelet Avoidance), 3 for quality improvement and benchmarking (Proportion of Patients on Oral Anticoagulants Receiving Hemostatic Medications, Median ED Length of Stay for admitted patients, and Median Length of Stay for transferred patients), and 2 for quality improvement only (Severity Assessment in the ED and Computed Tomography Angiography Performance). The proposed measure set warrants further development and validation to support broader implementation and advance national health care quality goals. Ultimately, applying these measures may help identify opportunities for improvement and focus quality improvement resources on evidence-based targets.

Comparison of Hospital Performance in Acute Ischemic Stroke Based on Mortality and Functional Outcome in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests a correlation between modified Rankin Scale-based measures, an outcome measure commonly used in acute stroke trials, and mortality-based measures used by health agencies in the evaluation of hospital performance. We aimed to examine whether the 2 types of measures are interchangeable in relation to evaluation of hospital performance in acute ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Five outcome measures, unfavorable functional outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score ≥2), death or dependency (3-month modified Rankin Scale score ≥3), 1-month mortality, 3-month mortality, and 1-year mortality, were collected for 8292 individuals who were hospitalized for acute ischemic stroke between January 2014 and May 2015 in 14 hospitals participating in the Clinical Research Collaboration for Stroke in Korea - National Institute of Health registry. Hierarchical regression models were used to calculate per-hospital risk-adjusted outcome rates for each measure. Hospitals were ranked and grouped based on the risk-adjusted outcome rates, and the correlations between the modified Rankin Scale-based and mortality-based ranking and their intermeasure reliability in categorizing hospital performance were analyzed.

RESULTS

The comparison between the ranking based on the unfavorable functional outcome and that based on 1-year mortality resulted in a Spearman correlation coefficient of -0.29 and Kendall rank coefficient of -0.23, and the comparison of grouping based on these 2 types of ranks resulted in a weighted kappa of 0.123 for the grouping in the top 33%/middle 33%/bottom 33% and 0.25 for the grouping in the top 20%/middle 60%/bottom 20%, respectively. No significant correlation or similarity in grouping capacities were found between the rankings based on the functional outcome measures and those based on the mortality measures.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that regardless of clinical correlation at an individual patient level, functional outcome-based measures and mortality-based measures are not interchangeable in the evaluation of hospital performance in acute ischemic stroke.

Association Between Claims-Defined Frailty and Outcomes Following 30 Versus 12 Months of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Findings From the EXTEND-DAPT Study

Background Frailty is rarely assessed in clinical trials of patients who receive dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after percutaneous coronary intervention. This study investigated whether frailty defined using claims data is associated with outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention, and if there is a differential association in patients receiving standard versus extended duration DAPT. Methods and Results Patients ≥65 years of age in the DAPT (Dual Antiplatelet Therapy) Study, a randomized trial comparing 30 versus 12 months of DAPT following percutaneous coronary intervention, had data linked to Medicare claims (n=1326), and a previously validated claims-based index was used to define frailty. Net adverse clinical events, a composite of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, and major bleeding, were compared between frail and nonfrail patients. Patients defined as frail using claims data (12.0% of the cohort) had higher incidence of net adverse clinical events (23.1%) compared with nonfrail patients (10.7%; P<0.001) at 18-month follow-up and increased risk after multivariable adjustment (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.24 [95% CI, 1.38-3.63]). There were no differences in effects of extended duration DAPT on net adverse clinical events for frail (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 0.73-2.75]) and nonfrail patients (HR, 1.18 [95% CI, 0.83-1.68]; interaction P=0.61), although analyses were underpowered. Bleeding was highest among frail patients who received extended duration DAPT. Conclusions Among older patients in the DAPT Study, claims-defined frailty was associated with higher net adverse clinical events. Effects of extended duration DAPT were not different for frail patients, although comparisons were underpowered. Further investigation of how frailty influences ischemic and bleeding risks with DAPT are warranted. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00977938.

Validation of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision Code for the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale Score

BACKGROUND

Administrative data can be useful for stroke research but have historically lacked data on stroke severity. Hospitals increasingly report the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score using an International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis code, but this code's validity remains unclear.

METHODS

We examined the concordance of ICD-10 NIHSS scores versus NIHSS scores recorded in CAESAR (Cornell Acute Stroke Academic Registry). We included all patients with acute ischemic stroke from October 1, 2015, when US hospitals transitioned to ICD-10, through 2018, the latest year in our registry. The NIHSS score (range, 0-42) recorded in our registry served as the reference gold standard. ICD-10 NIHSS scores were derived from hospital discharge diagnosis code R29.7xx, with the latter 2 digits representing the NIHSS score. Multiple logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with availability of ICD-10 NIHSS scores. We used ANOVA to examine the proportion of variation (R2) in the true (registry) NIHSS score that was explained by the ICD-10 NIHSS score.

RESULTS

Among 1357 patients, 395 (29.1%) had an ICD-10 NIHSS score recorded. This proportion increased from 0% in 2015 to 46.5% in 2018. In a logistic regression model, only higher registry NIHSS score (odds ratio per point, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.07]) and cardioembolic stroke (odds ratio, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.0-2.0]) were associated with availability of the ICD-10 NIHSS score. In an ANOVA model, the ICD-10 NIHSS score explained almost all the variation in the registry NIHSS score (R2=0.88). Fewer than 10% of patients had a large discordance (≥4 points) between their ICD-10 and registry NIHSS scores.

CONCLUSIONS

When present, ICD-10 codes representing NIHSS scores had excellent agreement with NIHSS scores recorded in our stroke registry. However, ICD-10 NIHSS scores were often missing, especially in less severe strokes, limiting the reliability of these codes for risk adjustment.

Clinical and imaging predictors of dysphagia and swallowing ability recovery in acute ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVE

Dysphagia is one of the most common complications of acute ischemic stroke, and prediction of dysphagia is crucial for post-stroke treatment. We aimed to identify predictors of dysphagia and swallowing function recovery following ischemic stroke and to investigate dysphagia-associated lesion location.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled patients with acute ischemic stroke confirmed on diffusion-weighted imaging. All patients received swallowing evaluation within 48 h after admission. Follow-up oral intake ability was measured on 7 and 30 days after stroke onset. Voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping was performed to determine locations associated with dysphagia.

RESULTS

Of 126 patients included in the final analysis, 23 patients (18.3%) were classified as initial dysphagia. The presence of facial palsy (P = 0.008) and larger white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume (P = 0.003) was associated with initial dysphagia. Initial risk of aspiration assessed by Any2 score (P = 0.001) at baseline was identified as independent predictor for dysphagia at day 7. Patients with higher Any2 score (P < 0.001), aphasia (P = 0.013), and larger WMH volume (P = 0.010) were less likely to have a full swallowing function recovery at 1 month. Acute infarcts in right corona radiata and right superior longitudinal fasciculus were correlated with impaired recovery of swallowing ability at 1 month.

CONCLUSIONS

Initial risk of aspiration was identified as risk factor for short-term and long-term dysphagia. Aphasia and larger WMH volume were revealed to be significant predictors for swallowing function recovery at 1 month. Right corona radiata was identified as an essential brain area for dysphagia.

National Patterns and Outcomes of Neurologist Care in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background & Purpose

Specialist care of acute ischemic stroke patients has been associated with improved outcomes but is not well-characterized. We sought to elucidate the involvement and influence of neurologists on acute ischemic stroke care.

Methods

Using 100% Medicare datasets, index acute ischemic stroke admissions from 2016-2018 were identified with International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes. Neurologists were identified by NPI code. Neurologist involvement in care was defined as: "neurologist involved in care"; "hospital with a neurologist"; and "percent of acute ischemic stroke treated by neurologist." Adjusted logistic regression models summarized exposure to neurologists and their association with outcomes (inpatient mortality, good outcome, and 30-day readmission).

Results

Among 647838 index AIS admissions from 2016-2018, 15.6% included a neurologist involved in care, associated with receiving intravenous thrombolysis (19.1% vs 6.5%), endovascular thrombectomy (13.2% vs 1.4%), treatment at a teaching hospital (87.7% vs 55.5%), and treatment at a hospital in the highest volume quartile (95.3% vs 75.6%). Of 4797 hospitals, 36.1% had a neurologist, among which the mean percent of admissions treated by a neurologist was 14.7% (SD 24.4). Neurologist involvement was associated with increased inpatient mortality (OR 1.81; 95% CI 1.75-1.86), decreased odds of a good outcome (OR .92; 95% CI .90-.93), and increased 30-day readmission (OR 1.04; 95% C: 1.01-1.06).

Conclusions

The minority of acute ischemic stroke admissions among the elderly in the US are treated by neurologists. Neurologist involvement in care is associated with worse outcomes, possibly from the allocation of severe cases to neurologists.

A survey of stroke-related capabilities among a sample of US community emergency departments

Objectives

Most acute stroke research is conducted at academic and larger hospitals, which may differ from many non-academic (ie, community) and smaller hospitals with respect to resources and consultant availability. We describe current emergency department (ED) and hospital-level stroke-related capabilities among a sample of community EDs participating in the Emergency Quality Network (E-QUAL) stroke collaborative.

Methods

Among E-QUAL-participating EDs, we conducted a survey to collect data on ED and hospital stroke-related structural and process capabilities associated with quality of stroke care delivery and patient outcomes. EDs submitted data using a web-based submission portal. We present descriptive statistics of self-reported capabilities.

Results

Of 154 participating EDs in 30 states, 97 (63%) completed the survey. Many were rural (33%); most (82%) were not certified stroke centers. Although most reported having stroke protocols (67%), many did not include hemorrhagic stroke or transient ischemic attack (45% and 57%, respectively). Capability to perform emergent head computed tomography and to administer thrombolysis were not universal (absent in 4% and 5%, respectively). Access to neurologic consultants varied; 18% reported no 24/7 availability onsite or remotely. Of those with access, 48% reported access through telemedicine only. Admission capabilities also varied with patient transfer commonly performed (79%).

Conclusion

Stroke-related capabilities vary substantially between community EDs and are different from capabilities typically found in larger stroke centers. These data may be valuable for identifying areas for future investment. Additionally, the design of stroke quality improvement interventions and metrics to evaluate emergency stroke care delivery should account for these key structural differences.

Quality measurement for cardiovascular diseases and cancer in hospital value-based healthcare: a systematic review of the literature

BACKGROUND

This systematic literature review identifies hospital value-based healthcare quality measures, measurement practices, and tools, as well as potential strategies for improving cardiovascular diseases and cancer care.

METHODS

A systematic search was carried out in the PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and MEDLINE (OvidSP) databases. We included studies on quality measures in hospital value-based healthcare for cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts, conducted a full-text review of potentially relevant articles, assessed the quality of included studies, and extracted data thematically. This review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, and four validated tools were used for methodological quality assessment.

RESULTS

The search yielded 2860 publications. After screening the titles and abstracts, 60 articles were retrieved for full-text review. A total of 37 studies met our inclusion criteria. We found that standardized outcome sets with patient involvement were developed for some cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Despite the heterogeneity in outcome measures, there was consensus to include clinical outcomes on survival rate and disease control, disutility of care, and patient-reported outcome measures such as long-term quality of life.

CONCLUSION

Hospitals that developed value-based healthcare or are planning to do so can choose whether they prefer to implement the standardized outcomes step-by-step, collect additional measures, or develop their own set of measures. However, they need to ensure that their performance can be consistently compared to that of their peers and that they measure what prioritizes and maximizes value for their patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO ID: CRD42021229763 .

External validation of the Passive Surveillance Stroke Severity Indicator

BACKGROUND

The Passive Surveillance Stroke Severity (PaSSV) Indicator was derived to estimate stroke severity from variables in administrative datasets but has not been externally validated.

METHODS

We used linked administrative datasets to identify patients with first hospitalization for acute stroke between 2007-2018 in Alberta, Canada. We used the PaSSV indicator to estimate stroke severity. We used Cox proportional hazard models and evaluated the change in hazard ratios and model discrimination for 30-day and 1-year case fatality with and without PaSSV. Similar comparisons were made for 90-day home time thresholds using logistic regression. We also linked with a clinical registry to obtain National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and compared estimates from models without stroke severity, with PaSSV, and with NIHSS.

RESULTS

There were 28,672 patients with acute stroke in the full sample. In comparison to no stroke severity, addition of PaSSV to the 30-day case fatality models resulted in improvement in model discrimination (C-statistic 0.72 [95%CI 0.71-0.73] to 0.80 [0.79-0.80]). After adjustment for PaSSV, admission to a comprehensive stroke center was associated with lower 30-day case fatality (adjusted hazard ratio changed from 1.03 [0.96-1.10] to 0.72 [0.67-0.77]). In the registry sample (N = 1328), model discrimination for 30-day case fatality improved with the inclusion of stroke severity. Results were similar for 1-year case fatality and home time outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Addition of PaSSV improved model discrimination for case fatality and home time outcomes. The validity of PASSV in two Canadian provinces suggests that it is a useful tool for baseline risk adjustment in acute stroke.

Demographic and institutional predictors of stroke hospitalization mortality among adults in the United States

Introduction

Stroke remains a primary source of functional disability and inpatient mortality in the United States (US). Recent evidence reveals declining mortality associated with stroke hospitalizations in the US. However, data updating trends in inpatient mortality is lacking. This study aims to provide a renewed inpatient stroke mortality rate in a national sample and identify common predictors of inpatient stroke mortality.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, we analyzed data from a nationwide database between 2010 and 2017. We included patient encounters for both ischemic (ICD9 433–434, ICD10 I630–I639) and hemorrhagic stroke (ICD9 430–432, ICD10 I600–I629). We performed an annual comparison of in-hospital stroke mortality rates, and a cross-sectional analytic approach of multiple variables identified common predictors of inpatient stroke mortality.

Results

Between 2010 and 2017, we identified 518,185 total stroke admissions (86.6% ischemic stroke and 13.4% hemorrhagic strokes). Stroke admissions steadily increased during the studied period, whereas we observed a steady decline in in-hospital mortality during the same time. The inpatient stroke mortality rate gradually declined from 4.8% in 2010 (95% CI 4.6–5.1) to 2.1% in 2017 (95% CI 2.0–2.1). Predictors of higher odds of dying from ischemic stroke were female (OR 1.059, 95% CI 1.015–1.105, p = 0.008), older age (OR 1.028, 95% CI 1.026–1.029, p < 0.001), and sicker patients (OR 1.091, 95% CI 1.089–1.093, p < 0.001). Predictors of higher odds of dying from hemorrhagic stroke were Hispanic ethnicity (OR 1.459, 95% CI 1.084–1.926, p < 0.001), older age (OR 1.021, 95% CI 1.019–1.023, p < 0.001), and sicker patients (OR 1.042, 95% CI 1.039–1.045, p < 0.001). All census regions and hospital types demonstrated improvements in in-hospital mortality.

Conclusion

This study identified a continuous declining rate in in-hospital mortality due to stroke in the United States, and it also identified demographic and hospital predictors of inpatient stroke mortality.

•

Stroke remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States

•

Stroke hospitalization mortality trends are important to guide efforts in acute stroke care

•

Vascular risk factors are still prevalent in the population admitted due to stroke and continue to be associated with higher odds of death

•

There are important regional disparities in stroke hospitalization deaths in the United States

•

Hospital characteristics influence odds of death from a stroke independent of stroke etiology

Frequency, Characteristics, and Outcomes of Endovascular Thrombectomy in Patients With Stroke Beyond 6 Hours of Onset in US Clinical Practice

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In 2018, 2 randomized controlled trials showed the benefit of endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in acute ischemic stroke patients treated 6 to 24 hours from last known well using imaging-guided selection. However, little is known about outcomes in contemporary nontrial settings. We assessed the frequency of EVT and outcomes beyond 6 hours in the US Get With The Guidelines-Stroke clinical registry.

METHODS

We analyzed all acute ischemic stroke patients treated with EVT between January 1, 2009 and October, 1, 2018, at Get With The Guidelines-Stroke hospitals in the United States. We assessed trends over time in frequency of EVT beyond 6 hours, compared patient characteristics and outcomes between those treated within versus beyond 6 hours, and evaluated the associations between EVT time and outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified 53 702 patients at 697 sites treated with EVT during the study period. Treatment after 6 hours from last known well occurred in 17 720 (33%) of all 53 702 EVT cases (median 4.7 hours, interquartile range, 3.3-7 hours). The proportion of EVT cases treated after 6 hours from last known well varied widely across sites (median 30%, interquartile range, 24%-38%). Compared with patients treated within 6 hours, those treated beyond six hours were younger, less likely to have atrial fibrillation, less likely to arrive by ambulance, had lower stroke severity, were less likely to be anticoagulated, and more likely to be treated at centers with higher EVT volumes. After adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics, patients receiving EVT beyond 6 hours had less favorable in-hospital mortality, ambulation at discharge, and discharge disposition compared to those treated within 6 hours.

CONCLUSIONS

EVT is frequently performed for patients with ischemic stroke after 6 hours from last known well, accounting for one-third of cases nationally, and adjusted functional outcomes at discharge are worse in these patients compared to those treated with EVT within 6 hours. Further efforts are needed for optimal EVT outcomes in clinical practice settings.

Application of the Risk Stratification Index to Multilevel Models of All-condition 30-Day Mortality in Hospitalized Populations Over the Age of 65

BACKGROUND

The Risk Stratification Index (RSI) is superior to Hierarchical Conditions Categories (HCC) in patient-level regressions but has not been applied to assess hospital effects.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to measure the accuracy of RSI in modeling 30-day hospital mortality across all conditions using multilevel logistic regression.

SUBJECTS AND DATA SOURCES

A 100% sample of Medicare inpatient stays from 2009 to 2014, restricted to patients greater than 65 years of age in general hospitals, resulting in 64 million stays at 3504 hospitals.

RESEARCH DESIGN

We calculated RSI and HCC scores for patient stays using multilevel logistic regression in 3 populations: all inpatients, surgical, and nonsurgical. Correlations of risk-standardized mortality rates with rates of specific case types assessed case-mix balance. Patient stay volume was included to assess smaller hospitals.

RESULTS

We found a negligible correlation of all-conditions risk-standardized mortality rates with hospitals' proportions of orthopedic, cardiac, or pneumonia cases. RSI outperformed HCC in multilevel regressions containing both patient and hospital-level effects. C-statistics using RSI were 0.87 for the all-inpatients group, 0.87 for surgical, and 0.86 for nonsurgical stays. With HCC they were 0.82, 0.82, and 0.81. Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values were higher with HCC. RSI shifted 41% of hospitals' rankings by >1 decile. Hospitals with smaller volumes had higher 30-day observed and standardized mortality: 11.2% in the lowest volume quintile versus 8.5% in the highest volume quintile.

CONCLUSION

RSI has superior accuracy and results in a significant shift in rankings compared with HCC in multilevel models of 30-day hospital mortality across all conditions.

Role of Hospital Teaching Status on Outcomes of Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Nationwide Analysis

BACKGROUND

Data regarding hospitalization outcomes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) with respect to hospital teaching status are largely unknown.

AIMS

We aimed to investigate the impact of hospital teaching status on IBD hospitalization outcomes.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis, we queried the 2016 and 2017 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) databases using the International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) coding system. All adult patients with a principal diagnosis of IBD were included. We stratified the IBD group into ulcerative colitis (UC), Crohn's disease (CD), and complicated IBD. Our primary outcome was mortality. Statistical analysis was performed using STATA, version 16.0.

RESULTS

Of the 189,950 adult patients with IBD, the majority were admitted to teaching hospitals (70.9%). There was no significant difference in mortality based upon hospital teaching status (aOR 1.18, p = 0.48); however, these patients had an increased mean length of stay (adjusted coefficient: 0.82, p < 0.01), charges (adjusted coefficient: $8732, p < 0.01), and costs ($2871, p < 0.01). On subgroup analysis, patients with UC admitted to teaching hospitals had a significantly increased in-hospital mortality (aOR 2.11, p < 0.05), while those admitted with CD did not (aOR 0.80, p = 0.4). Among patients with complicated IBD, 73.17% were admitted to teaching hospitals, and no significant difference in in-hospital mortality was seen (aOR 1.06, p = 0.8).

CONCLUSION

While outcome differences are likely related to multiple unaccounted factors, greater efforts should be placed to cost-effectively manage patients with IBD at teaching institutions. Future studies are warranted to fully comprehend these variations.

Heterogeneity in COVID-19 patient volume, characteristics and outcomes across US Department of Veterans Affairs facilities: an observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Studies describe COVID-19 patient characteristics and outcomes across populations, but reports of variation across healthcare facilities are lacking. The objectives were to examine differences in COVID-19 patient volume and mortality across facilities, and understand whether facility variation in mortality was due primarily to differences in patient versus facility characteristics.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study with multilevel mixed effects logistic regression modelling.

SETTING

The Veterans Health Administration (VA) is the largest healthcare system in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with COVID-19.

MAIN OUTCOME

All-cause mortality within 45 days after COVID-19 testing (March-May, follow-up through 16 July 2020).

RESULTS

Among 13 510 patients with COVID-19, 3942 (29.2%) were admitted (2266/3942 (57.5%) ward; 1676/3942 (42.5%) intensive care unit (ICU)) and 679/3942 (17.2%) received mechanical ventilation. Marked heterogeneity was observed across facilities in median age (range: 34.3-83.9 years; facility mean: 64.7, SD 7.2 years); patient volume (range: 1-737 at 160 facilities; facility median: 48.5, IQR 14-105.5); hospital admissions (range: 1-286 at 133 facilities; facility median: 11, IQR 1-26.5); ICU caseload (range: 1-85 at 115 facilities; facility median: 4, IQR 0-12); and mechanical ventilation (range: 1-53 at 90 facilities; facility median: 1, IQR 0-5). Heterogeneity was also observed in facility mortality for all patients with COVID-19 (range: 0%-29.7%; facility median: 8.9%, IQR 2.4%-13.7%); inpatients (range: 0%-100%; facility median: 18.0%, IQR 5.6%-28.6%); ICU patients (range: 0%-100%; facility median: 28.6%, IQR 14.3%-50.0%); and mechanical ventilator patients (range: 0%-100%; facility median: 52.7%, IQR 33.3%-80.6%). The majority of variation in facility mortality was attributable to differences in patient characteristics (eg, age).

CONCLUSIONS

Marked heterogeneity in COVID-19 patient volume, characteristics and mortality were observed across VA facilities nationwide. Differences in patient characteristics accounted for the majority of explained variation in mortality across sites. Variation in unadjusted COVID-19 mortality across facilities or nations should be considered with caution.

Comparability of Event Adjudication Versus Administrative Billing Claims for Outcome Ascertainment in the DAPT Study: Findings From the EXTEND-DAPT Study

BACKGROUND

Data from administrative claims may provide an efficient alternative for end point ascertainment in clinical trials. However, it is uncertain how well claims data compare to adjudication by a clinical events committee in trials of patients with cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

We matched 1336 patients ≥65 years old who received percutaneous coronary intervention in the DAPT (Dual Antiplatelet Therapy) Study with the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI Registry linked to Medicare claims as part of the EXTEND (Extending Trial-Based Evaluations of Medical Therapies Using Novel Sources of Data) Study. Adjudicated trial end points were compared with Medicare claims data with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes from inpatient hospitalizations using time-to-event analyses, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and kappa statistics.

RESULTS

At 21-month follow-up, the cumulative incidence of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (combined mortality, myocardial infarction, and stroke) was similar between trial-adjudicated events and claims data (7.9% versus 7.2%, respectively; P=0.50). Bleeding rates were lower using adjudicated events compared with claims (5.0% versus 8.6%, respectively; P<0.001). The sensitivity and positive predictive value of comprehensive billing codes for identifying adjudicated events were 65.6% and 85.7% for myocardial infarction, 61.5% and 47.1% for stroke, and 76.8% and 39.3% for bleeding, respectively. Specificity and negative predictive value for all outcomes ranged from 93.7% to 99.5%. All 39 adjudicated deaths were identified using Medicare data. Kappa statistics assessing agreement between events for myocardial infarction, stroke, and bleeding were 0.73, 0.52, and 0.49, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Claims data had moderate agreement with adjudication for myocardial infarction and poor agreement but high specificity for bleeding and stroke in the DAPT Study. Deaths were identified equivalently. Using claims data in clinical trials could be an efficient way to assess mortality among Medicare patients and may help detect other outcomes, although additional monitoring is likely needed to ensure accurate assessment of events.

Inpatient rehabilitation facilities' hospital readmission rates for medicare beneficiaries treated following a stroke

BACKGROUND

Stroke is the leading cause for admission to the nearly 1,200 Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities (IRFs) nationally in the US. For many patients, post-acute care is an important component of their rehabilitation. Several quality measures have been publicly reported for post-acute care providers, including hospital readmissions. However, to date none have focused on specific medical conditions, limiting the usability for patients and quality improvement.

OBJECTIVE

To assess hospital readmission rates for Medicare patients receiving inpatient rehabilitation following stroke and to identify risk factors in order to evaluate the feasibility of a stroke-specific hospital readmission measure.

METHODS

Observational study analyzing national Medicare inpatient claims and administrative data to assess hospital readmissions. Using logistic regression, we calculated unadjusted and risk-standardized readmission rates, which adjusted for patient characteristics, including type of stroke and admission function, to capture stroke severity.

RESULTS

Our national study included 116,073 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiary discharged from IRFs in 2013-2014 following stroke from 1,162 IRFs nationally. The observed hospital readmission rate among IRF patients following stroke was 11.6% and varied by patients' admission motor function. Patients with greater functional dependence had higher readmission rates on average. Lower admission function, hemorrhagic and other stroke types (relative to ischemic) were significantly associated with higher odds of hospital readmission.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest it is feasible to assess hospital readmission rates among a stroke-cohort treated in IRFs. Stroke-focused quality measures would be useful to patients in selecting a provider and for providers in evaluating their stroke rehabilitation program outcomes. Secondary results suggest that admission function (FIM) capture stroke severity, a limitation with other claims-based stroke measures.

Urban-Rural Inequities in Acute Stroke Care and In-Hospital Mortality

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The rural-urban life-expectancy gap is widening, but underlying causes are incompletely understood. Prior studies suggest stroke care may be worse for individuals in more rural areas, and technological advancements in stroke care may disproportionately impact individuals in more rural areas. We sought to examine differences and 5-year trends in the care and outcomes of patients hospitalized for stroke across rural-urban strata.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using National Inpatient Sample data from 2012 to 2017. Rurality was classified by county of residence according to the 6-strata National Center for Health Statistics classification scheme.

RESULTS

There were 792 054 hospitalizations for acute stroke in our sample. Rural patients were more often white (78% versus 49%), older than 75 (44% versus 40%), and in the lowest quartile of income (59% versus 32%) compared with urban patients. Among patients with acute ischemic stroke, intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular therapy use were lower for rural compared with urban patients (intravenous thrombolysis: 4.2% versus 9.2%, adjusted odds ratio, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.51-0.59], P<0.001; endovascular therapy: 1.63% versus 2.41%, adjusted odds ratio, 0.64 [0.57-0.73], P<0.001). Urban-rural gaps in both therapies persisted from 2012 to 2017. Overall, stroke mortality was higher in rural than urban areas (6.87% versus 5.82%, P<0.001). Adjusted in-patient mortality rates increased across categories of increasing rurality (suburban, 0.97 [0.94-1.0], P=0.086; large towns, 1.05 [1.01-1.09], P=0.009; small towns, 1.10 [1.06-1.15], P<0.001; micropolitan rural, 1.16 [1.11-1.21], P<0.001; and remote rural 1.21 [1.15-1.27], P<0.001 compared with urban patients. Mortality for rural patients compared with urban patients did not improve from 2012 (adjusted odds ratio, 1.12 [1.00-1.26], P<0.001) to 2017 (adjusted odds ratio, 1.27 [1.13-1.42], P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Rural patients with stroke were less likely to receive intravenous thrombolysis or endovascular therapy and had higher in-hospital mortality than their urban counterparts. These gaps did not improve over time. Enhancing access to evidence-based stroke care may be a target for reducing rural-urban disparities.

Association Between Thrombolytic Door-to-Needle Time and 1-Year Mortality and Readmission in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

IMPORTANCE

Earlier administration of intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in acute ischemic stroke is associated with reduced mortality by the time of hospital discharge and better functional outcomes at 3 months. However, it remains unclear whether shorter door-to-needle times translate into better long-term outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether shorter door-to-needle times with intravenous tPA for acute ischemic stroke are associated with improved long-term outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older who were treated for acute ischemic stroke with intravenous tPA within 4.5 hours from the time they were last known to be well at Get With The Guidelines-Stroke participating hospitals between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2016, with 1-year follow-up through December 31, 2017.

EXPOSURES

Door-to-needle times for intravenous tPA.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, all-cause readmission, and the composite of all-cause mortality or readmission.

RESULTS

Among the 61 426 patients treated with tPA within 4.5 hours, the median age was 80 years and 43.5% were male. The median door-to-needle time was 65 minutes (interquartile range, 49-88 minutes). The 48 666 patients (79.2%) who were treated with tPA and had door-to-needle times of longer than 45 minutes, compared with those treated within 45 minutes, had significantly higher all-cause mortality (35.0% vs 30.8%, respectively; adjusted HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.18]), higher all-cause readmission (40.8% vs 38.4%; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.12]), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (56.0% vs 52.1%; adjusted HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.06-1.12]). The 34 367 patients (55.9%) who were treated with tPA and had door-to-needle times of longer than 60 minutes, compared with those treated within 60 minutes, had significantly higher all-cause mortality (35.8% vs 32.1%, respectively; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 [95% CI, 1.07-1.14]), higher all-cause readmission (41.3% vs 39.1%; adjusted HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10]), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (56.8% vs 53.1%; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.10]). Every 15-minute increase in door-to-needle times was significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.02-1.05]) within 90 minutes after hospital arrival, but not after 90 minutes (adjusted HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.99-1.03]), higher all-cause readmission (adjusted HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (adjusted HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.03]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients aged 65 years or older with acute ischemic stroke who were treated with tissue plasminogen activator, shorter door-to-needle times were associated with lower all-cause mortality and lower all-cause readmission at 1 year. These findings support efforts to shorten time to thrombolytic therapy.

Hospital Volume and Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients: Effect of Adjustment for Stroke Severity

OBJECTIVE

Stroke severity of 1 hospital is a crucial information when assessing hospital performance. We aimed to determine the effect of stroke severity in the association between hospital patient volume and outcome after acute ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Data from National Acute Stroke Quality Assessment in 2013 and 2014 were analyzed. Hospital patient volume was defined as the annual number of acute ischemic stroke patients who admitted to each hospital. Comparisons among hospital patient volume quartiles before and after adjusting age, sex, onset to arrival and stroke severity were made to determine the associations between hospital patient volume and mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 1 year. Assessments for the nonlinear associations, with treating hospital patient volume as a continuous variable, and the associations between hospital patient volume and quality of care were also made.

RESULTS

A total of 14,666 acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 202 hospitals were analyzed. In the crude analysis, patients admitted to hospitals with lower patient volume showed higher mortality with a non-linear inverse association with a cut-off value of 227 patients/year. While the associations remained significant after adjusting age, sex and onset to arrival time (P's < .05), they disappeared when stroke severity was further adjusted (P's > .05). In contrary, hospital patient volume showed a nonlinear positive association with a plateau for summary measures of quality indicators even after adjustments for covariates including stroke severity (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study implicates that stroke severity should be considered when assessing hospital performance regarding outcomes of acute stroke care.

Mortality Trends for Veterans Hospitalized With Heart Failure and Pneumonia Using Claims-Based vs Clinical Risk-Adjustment Variables

IMPORTANCE

Prior studies have reported declines in mortality for patients admitted to Veterans Health Administration (VA) and non-VA hospitals using claims-based risk adjustment. These apparent mortality reductions may be influenced by changes in coding practices.

OBJECTIVE

To compare trends in the VA for 30-day mortality following hospitalization for heart failure (HF) and pneumonia using claims-based and clinical risk-adjustment models.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This observational time-trend study analyzed admissions to a VA Medical Center with a principal diagnosis of HF, pneumonia, or sepsis/respiratory failure (RF) with a secondary diagnosis of pneumonia. Exclusion criteria included having less than 12 months of VA enrollment, being discharged alive within 24 hours, leaving against medical advice, and hospice utilization.

EXPOSURES

Admission to a VA hospital from January 2009 through September 2015.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was 30-day, all-cause mortality. All models included age and sex. Claims-based covariates included 22 (30) comorbidities for HF (pneumonia). Clinical covariates included vital signs, laboratory values, and ejection fraction.

RESULTS

Among the 146 924 HF admissions, the mean (SD) age was 71.6 (11.4) years and 144 502 (98.4%) were men; among the 131 325 admissions for pneumonia, the mean (SD) age was 70.8 (12.3) years and 127 491 (97.1%) were men. Unadjusted 30-day mortality rates were 6.45% (HF) and 11.22% (pneumonia). Claims-based models showed an increased predicted risk of 30-day mortality over time (0.019 percentage points per quarter for HF [95% CI, 0.015 to 0.023]; 0.053 percentage points per quarter for pneumonia [95% CI, 0.043 to 0.063]). Clinical models showed declines or no change in predicted risk (-0.014 percentage points per quarter for HF [95% CI, -0.020 to -0.008]; -0.004 percentage points per quarter for pneumonia [95% CI, -0.017 to 0.008]). Claims-based risk adjustment yielded declines in 30-day mortality of 0.051 percentage points per quarter for HF (95% CI, -0.074 to -0.027) and 0.084 percentage points per quarter for pneumonia (95% CI, -0.111 to -0.056). Models adjusting for clinical covariates attenuated or eliminated these changes for HF (-0.017 percentage points per quarter; 95% CI, -0.039 to 0.006) and for pneumonia (-0.026 percentage points per quarter; 95% CI, -0.052 to 0.001). Compared with the claims-based models, the clinical models for HF and pneumonia more accurately differentiated between patients who died after 30 days and those who did not.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among HF and pneumonia hospitalizations, adjusting for clinical covariates attenuated declines in mortality rates identified using claims-based models. Assessments of temporal trends in 30-day mortality using claims-based risk adjustment should be interpreted with caution.

Deriving a Passive Surveillance Stroke Severity Indicator From Routinely Collected Administrative Data: The PaSSV Indicator

BACKGROUND

Adjusting for stroke severity is crucial for stroke outcomes research. However, this information is not available in administrative healthcare data. We aimed to derive an indicator of baseline stroke severity using these data.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We identified patients with stroke enrolled in a population-based registry in Ontario, Canada, and used the Canadian Neurological Scale (CNS), documented in the registry, as a measure of stroke severity. We derived an estimated CNS from a linear regression model in which we regressed the observed CNS on predictor variables: age, sex, arrival by ambulance, interhospital transfer, mechanical ventilation, and an emergency department triage score. The effect of stroke severity on the estimated hazard ratios for 30-day mortality was determined in 3 Cox-proportional hazards models with (1) no CNS, (2) observed CNS, and (3) estimated CNS, all adjusted for age, sex, Charlson index, and stroke type. We assessed model discrimination using C statistics. To assess for construct validity, we repeated these analyses in a subset of patients with documented National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and in a cohort of patients with stroke external to the registry. We derived the estimated stroke severity in 41 481 patients (48.7% female, median age of 75 years [interquartile range, 64- 83]). The magnitude of the association between stroke severity and mortality was similar for the observed and estimated CNS. The discriminative ability of the Cox-proportional hazards models to predict mortality was highest when the observed CNS was included (C statistic, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.81-0.82]), moderate with estimated CNS (0.76 [0.75-0.76]), and lowest without CNS (0.69 [0.69-0.70]. Our findings were replicated with the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and in the external cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We derived an estimated measure of stroke severity using administrative data. This can be applied for risk adjustment in population-based stroke outcomes research and in assessments of health system performance.

Myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries as compared with myocardial infarction and obstructive coronary disease: outcomes in a Medicare population

AIMS

The prognosis of patients with MINOCA (myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries) is poorly understood. We examined major adverse cardiac events (MACE) defined as all-cause mortality, re-hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), or stroke 12-months post-AMI in patients with MINOCA versus AMI patients with obstructive coronary artery disease (MICAD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Multicentre, observational cohort study of patients with AMI (≥65 years) from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI Registry (July 2009-December 2013) who underwent coronary angiography with linkage to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) claims data. Patients were classified as MICAD or MINOCA by the presence or absence of an epicardial vessel with ≥50% stenosis. The primary endpoint was MACE at 12 months, and secondary endpoints included the components of MACE over 12 months. Among 286 780 AMI admissions (276 522 unique patients), 16 849 (5.9%) had MINOCA. The 12-month rates of MACE (18.7% vs. 27.6%), mortality (12.3% vs. 16.7%), and re-hospitalization for AMI (1.3% vs. 6.1%) and HF (5.9% vs. 9.3%) were significantly lower for MINOCA vs. MICAD patients (P < 0.001), but was similar between MINOCA and MICAD patients for re-hospitalization for stroke (1.6% vs. 1.4%, P = 0.128). Following risk-adjustment, MINOCA patients had a 43% lower risk of MACE over 12 months (hazard ratio = 0.57, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.59), in comparison to MICAD patients. This pattern was similar for adjusted risks of the MACE components.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms an unfavourable prognosis in elderly patients with MINOCA undergoing coronary angiography, with one in five patients with MINOCA suffering a major adverse event over 12 months.

Developing an adapted Charlson comorbidity index for ischemic stroke outcome studies

Background

The Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) is commonly used to adjust for patient casemix. We reevaluated the CCI in an ischemic stroke (IS) cohort to determine whether the original seventeen comorbidities and their weights are relevant.

Methods

We identified an IS cohort (N = 6988) from the Ontario Stroke Registry (OSR) who were discharged from acute hospitals (N = 100) between April 1, 2012 and March 31, 2013. We used hospital discharge ICD-10-CA data to identify Charlson comorbidities. We developed a multivariable Cox model to predict one-year mortality retaining statistically significant (P < 0.05) comorbidities with hazard ratios ≥1.2. Hazard ratios were used to generate revised weights (1–6) for the comorbid conditions. The performance of the IS adapted Charlson comorbidity index (ISCCI) mortality model was compared to the original CCI using the c-statistic and continuous Net Reclassification Index (cNRI).

Results

Ten of the 17 Charlson comorbid conditions were retained in the ISCCI model and 7 had reassigned weights when compared to the original CCI model . The ISCCI model showed a small but significant increase in the c-statistic compared to the CCI for 30-day mortality (c-statistic 0.746 vs. 0.732, p = 0.009), but no significant increase in c-statistic for in-hospital or one-year mortality. There was also no improvement in the cNRI when the ISCCI model was compared to the CCI.

Conclusions

The ISCCI model had similar performance to the original CCI model. The key advantage of the ISCCI model is it includes seven fewer comorbidities and therefore easier to implement in situations where coded data is unavailable.

Impact of Missing Stroke Severity Data on the Accuracy of Hospital Ischemic Stroke Mortality Profiling

BACKGROUND

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have proposed 30-day ischemic stroke risk-standardized mortality rates that include adjustment for stroke severity using the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), which is often undocumented. We used simulations to quantify the effect of missing NIHSS data on the accuracy of hospital-level ischemic stroke risk-standardized mortality rate profiling for 100 hypothetical hospitals with different case volumes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We generated simulated data sets of patients with NIHSS scores and other predictors of 30-day mortality based on empirical analysis of data from 7654 patients with ischemic stroke in the Michigan Stroke Registry. We assigned and rank-ordered a true (known) 30-day mortality rate to each hospital in the simulated data sets of N=100 hospitals with either low (100 patients with stroke), medium (300), or high (500) case volumes. We then estimated and rank-ordered 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates for the N=100 hospitals in each simulated data set using hierarchical logistic regression models. In each data set, we systematically varied the rate of missing NIHSS data and whether missing NIHSS data was independent (missing completely at random) or dependent (missing not at random) on the NIHSS score. With no missing NIHSS data, the Spearman correlation between the true hospital performance rank order assigned during data set generation and the estimated 30-day risk-standardized mortality rate rank order was 0.72, 0.88, and 0.91 in low, medium, and high volume hospitals, respectively. However, this fell to as low as 0.50, 0.71, and 0.79 as missing NIHSS data reached 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

Missing NIHSS data had substantial detrimental effects on the accuracy of profiling of ischemic stroke mortality, especially in lower volume hospitals. Even with complete NIHSS documentation, significant limitations in ischemic stroke mortality profiling remain.

Race-Ethnic Disparities in 30-Day Readmission After Stroke Among Medicare Beneficiaries in the Florida Stroke Registry

OBJECTIVE

To examine racial/ethnic disparities in 30-day all-cause readmission after stroke.

METHODS

Thirty-day all-cause readmission was compared by race/ethnicity among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries discharged for ischemic stroke from hospitals in the Florida Stroke Registry from 2010 to 2013. We fit a Cox proportional hazards model that censored for death and adjusted for age, sex, length of stay, discharge home, and comorbidities to assess racial/ethnic differences in readmission.

RESULTS

Among 16,952 stroke patients (54% women, 75% white, 8% black, and 15% Hispanic), 30-day all-cause readmission was 15% (17.2% for blacks, 16.7% for Hispanics, 14.4% for whites, and 14.7% for others; P = .003). There was a median of 11 days between discharge and first readmission. In adjusted analyses, there was no significant difference in readmission for blacks (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.33), Hispanics (1.00, .90-1.13), and those of other race/ethnicity (.91, .71-1.16) compared with whites. Nearly 1 in 4 readmissions were attributable to acute cerebrovascular events: 16.6% ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, 1.5% hemorrhagic stroke, and 5.2% cerebral artery interventions. Interventions were more common among whites and those of other race than blacks and Hispanics (P = .029). Readmission due to pneumonia or urinary tract infection was 8.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Readmissions attributable to acute cerebrovascular events were common and generally occurred within 2 weeks of hospital discharge. Racial/ethnic disparities were present in readmissions for arterial interventions. Our results underscore the importance of postdischarge transitional care and the need for better secondary prevention strategies after ischemic stroke, particularly among minority populations.

Clinical Effectiveness of Direct Oral Anticoagulants vs Warfarin in Older Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Stroke: Findings From the Patient-Centered Research Into Outcomes Stroke Patients Prefer and Effectiveness Research (PROSPER) Study

IMPORTANCE

Current guidelines recommend direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) over warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are at high risk. Despite demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials, real-world data of DOACs vs warfarin for secondary prevention in patients with ischemic stroke are largely based on administrative claims or have not focused on patient-centered outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the clinical effectiveness of DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or apixaban) vs warfarin after ischemic stroke in patients with AF.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included patients who were 65 years or older, had AF, were anticoagulation naive, and were discharged from 1041 Get With The Guidelines-Stroke-associated hospitals for acute ischemic stroke between October 2011 and December 2014. Data were linked to Medicare claims for long-term outcomes (up to December 2015). Analyses were completed in July 2018.

EXPOSURES

DOACs vs warfarin prescription at discharge.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were home time, a patient-centered measure defined as the total number of days free from death and institutional care after discharge, and major adverse cardiovascular events. A propensity score-overlap weighting method was used to account for differences in observed characteristics between groups.

RESULTS

Of 11 662 survivors of acute ischemic stroke (median [interquartile range] age, 80 [74-86] years), 4041 (34.7%) were discharged with DOACs and 7621 with warfarin. Except for National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores (median [interquartile range], 4 [1-9] vs 5 [2-11]), baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Patients discharged with DOACs (vs warfarin) had more days at home (mean [SD], 287.2 [114.7] vs 263.0 [127.3] days; adjusted difference, 15.6 [99% CI, 9.0-22.1] days) during the first year postdischarge and were less likely to experience major adverse cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.89 [99% CI, 0.83-0.96]). Also, in patients receiving DOACs, there were fewer deaths (aHR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.82-0.95]; P < .001), all-cause readmissions (aHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.97]; P = .003), cardiovascular readmissions (aHR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.99]; P = .02), hemorrhagic strokes (aHR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.50-0.95]; P = .02), and hospitalizations with bleeding (aHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81-0.97]; P = .009) but a higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (aHR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.01-1.30]; P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In patients with acute ischemic stroke and AF, DOAC use at discharge was associated with better long-term outcomes relative to warfarin.

Hospital Variation in 30-Day Mortality for Patients With Stroke; The Impact of Individual and Municipal Socio-Demographic Status

Background

Thirty‐day mortality after hospitalization for stroke is commonly reported as a quality indicator. However, the impact of adjustment for individual and/or neighborhood sociodemographic status (SDS) has not been well documented. This study aims to evaluate the role of individual and contextual sociodemographic determinants in explaining the variation across hospitals in Norway and determine the impact when testing for hospitals with low or high mortality.

Methods and Results

Patient Administrative System data on all 45 448 patients admitted to hospitals in Norway with an incident stroke diagnosis from 2005 to 2009 were included. The data were merged with data from several databases to obtain information on vital status (dead/alive) and individual SDS variables. Logistic regression models were compared to estimate the predictive effect of individual and neighborhood SDS on 30‐day mortality and to determine outlier hospitals. All individual SDS factors, except travel time, were statistically significant predictors of 30‐day mortality. Of the municipal variables, only the municipal variable proportion of low income was statistically significant as a predictor of 30‐day mortality. Including sociodemographic characteristics of the individual and other characteristics of the municipality improved the model fit. However, performance classification was only changed for 1 (out of 56) hospital, from “significantly high mortality” to “nonoutlier.”

Conclusions

Our study showed that those stroke patients with a lower SDS have higher odds of dying after 30 days compared with those with a higher SDS, although this did not have a substantial impact when classifying providers as performing as expected, better than expected, or worse than expected.

The role of radiologic, clinical and biochemical parameters in prediction of stroke mortality

Objectives:

To assess National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), stroke volume, biochemical, and blood parameters for the prediction of one-month mortality in stroke patients

Methods:

The study had retrospective design and 75 patients were involved that presented to a hospital Emergency Department between January 2016 and December 2017 in Adiyaman, Turkey diagnosed with acute ischemic cerebral infarction. The patients were divided into 2 groups according to whether mortality occurred within one month. Values for NIHSS, stroke volume, Glasgow Coma Scale, and blood parameters were compared between the groups.

Results:

Values for Glasgow Coma Scale p=0.002, NIHSS p=0.001, stroke volume p=0.003, monocyte/HDL ratio p=0.047, neutrophils p=0.01, white blood cell p=0.007, calcium p=0.016, and albumin p=0.027 were statistically significant for the prediction of one-month mortality. There were no significant differences between the groups for other parameters.

Conclusion:

The clinical, laboratory, and radiological findings individually provide significant support for the short-term prognosis of stroke. The evaluation of these results together can provide a clearer advance understanding of a prognosis to better manage the course of the disease and prevent death.

The impact of disease severity adjustment on hospital standardised mortality ratios: Results from a service-wide analysis of ischaemic stroke admissions using linked pre-hospital, admissions and mortality data

Background

Administrative data are used to examine variation in thirty-day mortality across health services in several jurisdictions. Hospital performance measurement may be error-prone as information about disease severity is not typically available in routinely collected data to incorporate into case-mix adjusted analyses. Using ischaemic stroke as a case study, we tested the extent to which accounting for disease severity impacts on hospital performance assessment.

Methods

We linked all recorded ischaemic stroke admissions between July, 2011 and June, 2014 to death registrations and a measure of stroke severity obtained at first point of patient contact with health services, across New South Wales, Australia’s largest health service jurisdiction. Thirty-day hospital standardised mortality ratios were adjusted for either comorbidities, as is typically done, or for both comorbidities and stroke severity. The impact of stroke severity adjustment on mortality ratios was determined using 95% and 99% control limits applied to funnel plots and by calculating the change in rank order of hospital risk adjusted mortality rates.

Results

The performance of the stroke severity adjusted model was superior to incorporating comorbidity burden alone (c-statistic = 0.82 versus 0.75; N = 17,700 patients, 176 hospitals). Concordance in outlier classification was 89% and 97% when applying 95% or 99% control limits to funnel plots, respectively. The sensitivity rates of outlier detection using comorbidity adjustment compared with gold-standard severity and comorbidity adjustment was 74% and 83% with 95% and 99% control limits, respectively. Corresponding positive predictive values were 74% and 91%. Hospital rank order of risk adjusted mortality rates shifted between 0 to 22 places with severity adjustment (Median = 4.0, Inter-quartile Range = 2–7).

Conclusions

Rankings of mortality rates varied widely depending on whether stroke severity was taken into account. Funnel plots yielded largely concordant results irrespective of severity adjustment and may be sufficiently accurate as a screening tool for assessing hospital performance.

Routine low-dose continuous or nocturnal oxygen for people with acute stroke: three-arm Stroke Oxygen Supplementation RCT

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability worldwide. Hypoxia is common after stroke and is associated with worse outcomes. Oxygen supplementation could prevent hypoxia and secondary brain damage.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To assess whether or not routine low-dose oxygen supplementation in patients with acute stroke improves outcome compared with no oxygen; and (2) to assess whether or not oxygen given at night only, when oxygen saturation is most likely to be low, is more effective than continuous supplementation.

DESIGN

Multicentre, prospective, randomised, open, blinded-end point trial.

SETTING

Secondary care hospitals with acute stroke wards.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult stroke patients within 24 hours of hospital admission and 48 hours of stroke onset, without definite indications for or contraindications to oxygen or a life-threatening condition other than stroke.

INTERVENTIONS

Allocated by web-based minimised randomisation to: (1) continuous oxygen: oxygen via nasal cannula continuously (day and night) for 72 hours after randomisation at a flow rate of 3 l/minute if baseline oxygen saturation was ≤ 93% or 2 l/minute if > 93%; (2) nocturnal oxygen: oxygen via nasal cannula overnight (21:00-07:00) for three consecutive nights. The flow rate was the same as the continuous oxygen group; and (3) control: no routine oxygen supplementation unless required for reasons other than stroke.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome: disability assessed by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 3 months by postal questionnaire (participant aware, assessor blinded). Secondary outcomes at 7 days: neurological improvement, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), mortality, and the highest and lowest oxygen saturations within the first 72 hours. Secondary outcomes at 3, 6, and 12 months: mortality, independence, current living arrangements, Barthel Index, quality of life (European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, three levels) and Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living scale by postal questionnaire.

RESULTS

In total, 8003 patients were recruited between 24 April 2008 and 17 June 2013 from 136 hospitals in the UK [continuous, n = 2668; nocturnal, n = 2667; control, n = 2668; mean age 72 years (standard deviation 13 years); 4398 (55%) males]. All prognostic factors and baseline characteristics were well matched across the groups. Eighty-two per cent had ischaemic strokes. At baseline the median Glasgow Coma Scale score was 15 (interquartile range 15-15) and the mean and median NIHSS scores were 7 and 5 (range 0-34), respectively. The mean oxygen saturation at randomisation was 96.6% in the continuous and nocturnal oxygen groups and 96.7% in the control group. Primary outcome: oxygen supplementation did not reduce disability in either the continuous or the nocturnal oxygen groups. The unadjusted odds ratio for a better outcome (lower mRS) was 0.97 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89 to 1.05; p = 0.5] for the combined oxygen groups (both continuous and nocturnal together) (n = 5152) versus the control (n = 2567) and 1.03 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.13; p = 0.6) for continuous versus nocturnal oxygen. Secondary outcomes: oxygen supplementation significantly increased oxygen saturation, but did not affect any of the other secondary outcomes.

LIMITATIONS

Severely hypoxic patients were not included.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine low-dose oxygen supplementation in stroke patients who are not severely hypoxic is safe, but does not improve outcome after stroke.

FUTURE WORK

To investigate the causes of hypoxia and develop methods of prevention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN52416964 and European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials (EudraCT) number 2006-003479-11.

FUNDING DETAILS

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Research for Patient Benefit and Health Technology Assessment programmes and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Health Care Expenditures of Medicare Beneficiaries with Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus

BACKGROUND

Normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) is an underdiagnosed and undertreated condition affecting the elderly population and with costs associated with its surgical management reported to be less than those associated with conservative management.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the rate of diagnosis of NPH has improved over the last decade, the rate of treatment has increased, and if surgical treatment costs and socioeconomic factors related to receipt of treatment have changed over time compared with conservative therapy.

METHODS

A retrospective study based on data from a nationally representative random sample of 2,378,637 Medicare beneficiaries (2006-2010) was performed. Shunt surgery, shunt revision, replacement, and removal were analyzed as independent variables.

RESULTS

A total of 2321 patients with NPH were included, with 580 (24.99%) receiving a first shunt procedure. The adjusted effect of the procedure is that total 5-year expenditures are $11,676 more per patient (P < 0.001) than expenditures associated with nonsurgical management. Shunt revision ($22,715, P < 0.01) and/or replacement ($46,607, P < 0.001) add significantly to 5-year expenditures. Socioeconomic factors including African American race (P = 0.006); age 75-79 years (P = 0.024), 80-84 years (P < 0.001), and ≥85 years (P < 0.001); and Medicaid (P < 0.001) have significant negative associations with shunt surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a 1.66-fold increase in the rate of diagnosis of NPH, from 0.12% in 1999 to 0.2% in 2008. The total costs per surgical patient rose by approximately 145% to 160% comparing 2001 and 2010. This increase was mainly due to hospital (by 167% to 168%) and home health costs (by 118% to 148%). Providing appropriate care across the socioeconomic spectrum warrants further study and requires identifying the factors that limit access to care.

Stroke Center Certification Is Associated With Improved Guideline Concordance

Measurement of quality of stroke care has become increasingly important, but data come mostly from programs in hospitals that choose to participate in certification programs, which may not be representative of the care provided in nonparticipating hospitals. The authors sought to determine differences in quality of care metric concordance for acute ischemic stroke among hospitals designated as a primary stroke center, comprehensive stroke center, and non-stroke center in a population-based epidemiologic study. Significant differences were found in both patient demographics and in concordance with guideline-based quality metrics. These differences may help inform quality improvement efforts across hospitals involved in certification as well as those that are not.

Evaluation of reconfigurations of acute stroke services in different regions of England and lessons for implementation: a mixed-methods study

Background

Centralising acute stroke services is an example of major system change (MSC). ‘Hub and spoke’ systems, consisting of a reduced number of services providing acute stroke care over the first 72 hours following a stroke (hubs), with a larger number of services providing care beyond this phase (spokes), have been proposed to improve care and outcomes.

Objective

To use formative evaluation methods to analyse reconfigurations of acute stroke services in different regions of England and to identify lessons that will help to guide future reconfigurations, by studying the following contrasting cases: (1) London (implemented 2010) – all patients eligible for Hyperacute Stroke Units (HASUs); patients admitted 24 hours a day, 7 days a week; (2) Greater Manchester A (GMA) (2010) – only patients presenting within 4 hours are eligible for HASU treatment; one HASU operated 24/7, two operated from 07.00 to 19.00, Monday to Friday; (3) Greater Manchester B (GMB) (2015) – all patients eligible for HASU treatment (as in London); one HASU operated 24/7, two operated with admission extended to the hours of 07.00–23.00, Monday to Sunday; and (4) Midlands and East of England – planned 2012/13, but not implemented.

Design

Impact was studied through a controlled before-and-after design, analysing clinical outcomes, clinical interventions and cost-effectiveness. The development, implementation and sustainability of changes were studied through qualitative case studies, documentation analysis (n = 1091), stakeholder interviews (n = 325) and non-participant observations (n = 92; ≈210 hours). Theory-based framework was used to link qualitative findings on process of change with quantitative outcomes.

Results

Impact – the London centralisation performed significantly better than the rest of England (RoE) in terms of mortality [–1.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) –2.1% to –0.1%], resulting in an estimated additional 96 lives saved per year beyond reductions observed in the RoE, length of stay (LOS) (–1.4 days, 95% –2.3 to –0.5 days) and delivering effective clinical interventions [e.g. arrival at a Stroke Unit (SU) within 4 hours of ‘clock start’ (when clock start refers to arrival at hospital for strokes occurring outside hospital or the appearance of symptoms for patients who are already in-patients at the time of stroke): London = 66.3% (95% CI 65.6% to 67.1%); comparator = 54.4% (95% CI 53.6% to 55.1%)]. Performance was sustained over 6 years. GMA performed significantly better than the RoE on LOS (–2.0 days, 95% CI –2.8 to –1.2 days) only. GMB (where 86% of patients were treated in HASU) performed significantly better than the RoE on LOS (–1.5 days, 95% CI –2.5 to –0.4 days) and clinical interventions [e.g. SU within 4 hours: GMB = 79.1% (95% CI 77.9% to 80.4%); comparator = 53.4% (95% CI 53.0% to 53.7%)] but not on mortality (–1.3%, 95% CI –2.7% to 0.01%; p = 0.05, accounting for reductions observed in RoE); however, there was a significant effect when examining GMB HASUs only (–1.8%, 95% CI –3.4% to –0.2%), resulting in an estimated additional 68 lives saved per year. All centralisations except GMB were cost-effective at 10 years, with a higher net monetary benefit than the RoE at a willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of £20,000–30,000. Per 1000 patients at 10 years, London resulted in an additional 58 QALYs, GMA resulted in an additional 18 QALYs and GMB resulted in an additional 6 QALYs at costs of £1,014,363, –£470,848 and £719,948, respectively. GMB was cost-effective at 90 days. Despite concerns about the potential impact of increased travel times, patients and carers reported good experiences of centralised services; this relied on clear information at every stage. Planning change – combining top-down authority and bottom-up clinical leadership was important in co-ordinating multiple stakeholders to agree service models and overcome resistance. Implementation – minimising phases of change, use of data, service standards linked to financial incentives and active facilitation of changes by stroke networks was important. The 2013 reforms of the English NHS removed sources of top-down authority and facilitative capacity, preventing centralisation (Midlands and East of England) and delaying implementation (GMB). Greater Manchester’s Operational Delivery Network, developed to provide alternative network facilitation, and London’s continued use of standards suggested important facilitators of centralisation in a post-reform context.

Limitations

The main limitation of our quantitative analysis was that we were unable to control for stroke severity. In addition, findings may not apply to non-urban settings. Data on patients’ quality of life were unavailable nationally, clinical interventions measured changed over time and national participation in audits varied. Some qualitative analyses were retrospective, potentially influencing participant views.

Conclusions

Centralising acute stroke services can improve clinical outcomes and care provision. Factors related to the service model implemented, how change is implemented and the context in which it is implemented are influential in improvement. We recommend further analysis of how different types of leadership contribute to MSC, patient and carer experience during the implementation of change, the impact of change on further clinical outcomes (disability and QoL) and influence of severity of stroke on clinical outcomes. Finally, our findings should be assessed in relation to MSC implemented in other health-care specialties.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Urban-rural differences in the care and outcomes of acute stroke patients: Systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To describe literature pertaining to urban-rural differences in both the quality of care and outcomes of acute stroke patients.

METHODS

We systematically searched CINAHL, PubMed, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses, and Scopus for published and unpublished literature until 9th December 2017. Studies were included if they compared the acute care provided to, or outcomes of, patients hospitalised for stroke in urban versus rural settings. Abstract, full-text review, and data extraction were conducted in duplicate. Findings are presented in the form of narrative syntheses.

RESULTS

A total of 28 studies were included in the review (16 on care, 12 on outcomes). With few exceptions, studies addressing the provision of care suggested that rural patients have less access to most aspects of acute stroke care. Studies reporting urban-rural differences in patient outcomes were inconsistent in their findings, however, few of these studies were primarily focused on the issue of urban-rural disparities. Overall, study findings did not appear to differ in line with study quality ratings, stroke subtypes included, or how inter-facility patient transfers were accounted for.

CONCLUSIONS

There is convincing, albeit not unanimous, evidence to suggest that stroke patients in rural areas receive less acute care than their urban counterparts. Despite this, the available data and methodology have largely not been used to study urban-rural differences in patient outcomes. PROSPERO registration information: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero. Unique identifier: CRD42017073262.

Low self-reported sports activity before stroke predicts poor one-year-functional outcome after first-ever ischemic stroke in a population-based stroke register

Background

Physical activity (PA) is associated with lower risk of stroke. We tested the hypothesis that lack of pre-stroke PA is an independent predictor of poor outcome after first-ever ischemic stroke.

Methods

We assessed recent self-reported PA and other potential predictors for loss of functional independence - modified Rankin Scale (mRS) > 2 - one year after first-ever ischemic stroke in 1370 patients registered between 2006 and 2010 in the Ludwigshafen Stroke Study, a population-based stroke registry.

Results

After 1 year, 717 (52.3%) of patients lost their independence including 251 patients (18.3%) who had died. In multivariate logistic regression analysis lack of regular PA prior to stroke (Odds Ratio (OR) 1.7, Confidence Interval (CI) 1.1–2.5), independently predicted poor outcome together with higher age (65–74: OR 1.7; CI 1.1–2.8, 75–84 years: OR 3.3; CI 2.1–5.3; ≥85 years OR 14.5; CI 7.4–28.5), female sex (OR 1.5; CI 1.1–2.1), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.8; CI 1.3–2.5), stroke severity (OR 1.2; CI 1.1–1.2), probable atherothrombotic stroke etiology (OR 1.8; CI 1.1–2.8) and high leukocyte count (> 9.000/mm³; OR 1.4; CI 1.0–1.9) at admission. Subclassifying unknown stroke etiology, embolic stroke of unknown source (ESUS; n = 40, OR 2.2; CI 0.9–5.5) tended to be associated with loss of independence.

Conclusion

In addition to previously reported factors, lack of PA prior to stroke as potential indicator of worse physical condition, high leukocyte count at admission as indicator of the inflammatory response and probable atherothrombotic stroke etiology might be independent predictors for non-functional independence in first-ever ischemic stroke.