Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model Using Administrative Health Data to Predict Onset of Type 2 Diabetes

Artificial intelligence for diabetes care: current and future prospects

Artificial intelligence (AI) use in diabetes care is increasingly being explored to personalise care for people with diabetes and adapt treatments for complex presentations. However, the rapid advancement of AI also introduces challenges such as potential biases, ethical considerations, and implementation challenges in ensuring that its deployment is equitable. Ensuring inclusive and ethical developments of AI technology can empower both health-care providers and people with diabetes in managing the condition. In this Review, we explore and summarise the current and future prospects of AI across the diabetes care continuum, from enhancing screening and diagnosis to optimising treatment and predicting and managing complications.

Accurate prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease using electronic health records

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Despite the huge clinical burden of MASLD, validated tools for early risk stratification are lacking, and heterogeneous disease expression and a highly variable rate of progression to clinical outcomes result in prognostic uncertainty. We aimed to investigate longitudinal electronic health record-based outcome prediction in MASLD using a state-of-the-art machine learning model.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

n = 940 patients with histologically-defined MASLD were used to develop a deep-learning model for all-cause mortality prediction. Patient timelines, spanning 12 years, were fully-annotated with demographic/clinical characteristics, ICD-9 and -10 codes, blood test results, prescribing data, and secondary care activity. A Transformer neural network (TNN) was trained to output concomitant probabilities of 12-, 24-, and 36-month all-cause mortality. In-sample performance was assessed using 5-fold cross-validation. Out-of-sample performance was assessed in an independent set of n = 528 MASLD patients.

RESULTS

In-sample model performance achieved AUROC curve 0.74-0.90 (95 % CI: 0.72-0.94), sensitivity 64 %-82 %, specificity 75 %-92 % and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 94 %-98 %. Out-of-sample model validation had AUROC 0.70-0.86 (95 % CI: 0.67-0.90), sensitivity 69 %-70 %, specificity 96 %-97 % and PPV 75 %-77 %. Key predictive factors, identified using coefficients of determination, were age, presence of type 2 diabetes, and history of hospital admissions with length of stay >14 days.

CONCLUSIONS

A TNN, applied to routinely-collected longitudinal electronic health records, achieved good performance in prediction of 12-, 24-, and 36-month all-cause mortality in patients with MASLD. Extrapolation of our technique to population-level data will enable scalable and accurate risk stratification to identify people most likely to benefit from anticipatory health care and personalized interventions.

Optimizing type 2 diabetes management: AI-enhanced time series analysis of continuous glucose monitoring data for personalized dietary intervention

Despite advanced health facilities in many developed countries, diabetic patients face multifold health challenges. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) go along with conspicuous symptoms due to frequent peaks, hypoglycemia <=70 mg/dL (while fasting), or hyperglycemia >=180 mg/dL two hours postprandial, according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA)). The worse effects of Type 2 diabetes mellitus are precisely associated with the poor lifestyle adopted by patients. In particular, a healthy diet and nutritious food are the key to success for such patients. This study was done to help T2DM patients improve their health by developing a favorable lifestyle under an AI-assisted Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) digital system. This study aims to reduce the blood glucose level fluctuations of such patients by rectifying their daily diet and maintaining their exertion vs. food consumption records. In this study, a well-precise prediction is obtained by training the ML model on a dataset recorded from CGM sensor devices attached to T2DM patients under observation. As the data obtained from the CGM sensor is time series, to predict blood glucose levels, the time series analysis and forecasting are done with XGBoost, SARIMA, and Prophet. The results of different Models are then compared based on performance metrics. This helped in monitoring various trends, specifically irregular patterns of the patient's glucose data, collected by the CGM sensor. Later, keeping track of these trends and seasonality, the diet is adjusted accordingly by adding or removing particular food and keeping track of its nutrients with the intervention of a commercially available all-in-one AI solution for food recognition. This created an interactive assistive system, where the predicted results are compared to food contents to bring the blood glucose levels within the normal range for maintaining a healthy lifestyle and to alert about blood glucose fluctuations before the time that are going to occur sooner. This study will help T2DM patients get in managing diabetes and ultimately bring HbA1c within the normal range (<= 5.7%) for diabetic and pre-diabetic patients, three months after the intervention.

Transforming the cardiometabolic disease landscape: Multimodal AI-powered approaches in prevention and management

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized various scientific fields, particularly in medicine, where it has enabled the modeling of complex relationships from massive datasets. Initially, AI algorithms focused on improved interpretation of diagnostic studies such as chest X-rays and electrocardiograms in addition to predicting patient outcomes and future disease onset. However, AI has evolved with the introduction of transformer models, allowing analysis of the diverse, multimodal data sources existing in medicine today. Multimodal AI holds great promise in more accurate disease risk assessment and stratification as well as optimizing the key driving factors in cardiometabolic disease: blood pressure, sleep, stress, glucose control, weight, nutrition, and physical activity. In this article we outline the current state of medical AI in cardiometabolic disease, highlighting the potential of multimodal AI to augment personalized prevention and treatment strategies in cardiometabolic disease.

Preliminary Evidence of the Use of Generative AI in Health Care Clinical Services: Systematic Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

Generative artificial intelligence tools and applications (GenAI) are being increasingly used in health care. Physicians, specialists, and other providers have started primarily using GenAI as an aid or tool to gather knowledge, provide information, train, or generate suggestive dialogue between physicians and patients or between physicians and patients' families or friends. However, unless the use of GenAI is oriented to be helpful in clinical service encounters that can improve the accuracy of diagnosis, treatment, and patient outcomes, the expected potential will not be achieved. As adoption continues, it is essential to validate the effectiveness of the infusion of GenAI as an intelligent technology in service encounters to understand the gap in actual clinical service use of GenAI.

OBJECTIVE

This study synthesizes preliminary evidence on how GenAI assists, guides, and automates clinical service rendering and encounters in health care The review scope was limited to articles published in peer-reviewed medical journals.

METHODS

We screened and selected 0.38% (161/42,459) of articles published between January 1, 2020, and May 31, 2023, identified from PubMed. We followed the protocols outlined in the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines to select highly relevant studies with at least 1 element on clinical use, evaluation, and validation to provide evidence of GenAI use in clinical services. The articles were classified based on their relevance to clinical service functions or activities using the descriptive and analytical information presented in the articles.

RESULTS

Of 161 articles, 141 (87.6%) reported using GenAI to assist services through knowledge access, collation, and filtering. GenAI was used for disease detection (19/161, 11.8%), diagnosis (14/161, 8.7%), and screening processes (12/161, 7.5%) in the areas of radiology (17/161, 10.6%), cardiology (12/161, 7.5%), gastrointestinal medicine (4/161, 2.5%), and diabetes (6/161, 3.7%). The literature synthesis in this study suggests that GenAI is mainly used for diagnostic processes, improvement of diagnosis accuracy, and screening and diagnostic purposes using knowledge access. Although this solves the problem of knowledge access and may improve diagnostic accuracy, it is oriented toward higher value creation in health care.

CONCLUSIONS

GenAI informs rather than assisting or automating clinical service functions in health care. There is potential in clinical service, but it has yet to be actualized for GenAI. More clinical service-level evidence that GenAI is used to streamline some functions or provides more automated help than only information retrieval is needed. To transform health care as purported, more studies related to GenAI applications must automate and guide human-performed services and keep up with the optimism that forward-thinking health care organizations will take advantage of GenAI.

Identifying diagnostic indicators for type 2 diabetes mellitus from physical examination using interpretable machine learning approach

Background

Identification of patients at risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can not only prevent complications and reduce suffering but also ease the health care burden. While routine physical examination can provide useful information for diagnosis, manual exploration of routine physical examination records is not feasible due to the high prevalence of T2DM.

Objectives

We aim to build interpretable machine learning models for T2DM diagnosis and uncover important diagnostic indicators from physical examination, including age- and sex-related indicators.

Methods

In this study, we present three weighted diversity density (WDD)-based algorithms for T2DM screening that use physical examination indicators, the algorithms are highly transparent and interpretable, two of which are missing value tolerant algorithms.

Patients

Regarding the dataset, we collected 43 physical examination indicator data from 11,071 cases of T2DM patients and 126,622 healthy controls at the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University. After data processing, we used a data matrix containing 16004 EHRs and 43 clinical indicators for modelling.

Results

The indicators were ranked according to their model weights, and the top 25% of indicators were found to be directly or indirectly related to T2DM. We further investigated the clinical characteristics of different age and sex groups, and found that the algorithms can detect relevant indicators specific to these groups. The algorithms performed well in T2DM screening, with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) reaching 0.9185.

Conclusion

This work utilized the interpretable WDD-based algorithms to construct T2DM diagnostic models based on physical examination indicators. By modeling data grouped by age and sex, we identified several predictive markers related to age and sex, uncovering characteristic differences among various groups of T2DM patients.

Predicting disease onset from electronic health records for population health management: a scalable and explainable Deep Learning approach

Introduction

The move from a reactive model of care which treats conditions when they arise to a proactive model which intervenes early to prevent adverse healthcare events will benefit from advances in the predictive capabilities of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. This paper investigates the ability of a Deep Learning (DL) approach to predict future disease diagnosis from Electronic Health Records (EHR) for the purposes of Population Health Management.

Methods

In this study, embeddings were created using a Word2Vec algorithm from structured vocabulary commonly used in EHRs e.g., Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) codes. This study is based on longitudinal medical data from ~50 m patients in the USA. We introduced a novel method of including binned observation values into an embeddings model. We also included novel features associated with wider determinants of health. Patient records comprising these embeddings were then fed to a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model to predict the likelihood of patients developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder (COPD), Hypertension or experiencing an Acute Myocardial Infarction (MI) in the next 3 years. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated to achieve model explainability.

Results

Increasing the data scope to include binned observations and wider determinants of health was found to improve predictive performance. We achieved an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve value of 0.92 for Diabetes prediction, 0.94 for COPD, 0.92 for Hypertension and 0.94 for MI. The SHAP values showed that the models had learned features known to be associated with these outcomes.

Discussion

The DL approach outlined in this study can identify clinically-relevant features from large-scale EHR data and use these to predict future disease outcomes. This study highlights the promise of DL solutions for identifying patients at future risk of disease and providing clinicians with the means to understand and evaluate the drivers of those predictions.

A scoping review of artificial intelligence-based methods for diabetes risk prediction

The increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and its associated health complications highlight the need to develop predictive models for early diagnosis and intervention. While many artificial intelligence (AI) models for T2DM risk prediction have emerged, a comprehensive review of their advancements and challenges is currently lacking. This scoping review maps out the existing literature on AI-based models for T2DM prediction, adhering to the PRISMA extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines. A systematic search of longitudinal studies was conducted across four databases, including PubMed, Scopus, IEEE-Xplore, and Google Scholar. Forty studies that met our inclusion criteria were reviewed. Classical machine learning (ML) models dominated these studies, with electronic health records (EHR) being the predominant data modality, followed by multi-omics, while medical imaging was the least utilized. Most studies employed unimodal AI models, with only ten adopting multimodal approaches. Both unimodal and multimodal models showed promising results, with the latter being superior. Almost all studies performed internal validation, but only five conducted external validation. Most studies utilized the area under the curve (AUC) for discrimination measures. Notably, only five studies provided insights into the calibration of their models. Half of the studies used interpretability methods to identify key risk predictors revealed by their models. Although a minority highlighted novel risk predictors, the majority reported commonly known ones. Our review provides valuable insights into the current state and limitations of AI-based models for T2DM prediction and highlights the challenges associated with their development and clinical integration.

Artificial intelligence in diabetes management: Advancements, opportunities, and challenges

The increasing prevalence of diabetes, high avoidable morbidity and mortality due to diabetes and diabetic complications, and related substantial economic burden make diabetes a significant health challenge worldwide. A shortage of diabetes specialists, uneven distribution of medical resources, low adherence to medications, and improper self-management contribute to poor glycemic control in patients with diabetes. Recent advancements in digital health technologies, especially artificial intelligence (AI), provide a significant opportunity to achieve better efficiency in diabetes care, which may diminish the increase in diabetes-related health-care expenditures. Here, we review the recent progress in the application of AI in the management of diabetes and then discuss the opportunities and challenges of AI application in clinical practice. Furthermore, we explore the possibility of combining and expanding upon existing digital health technologies to develop an AI-assisted digital health-care ecosystem that includes the prevention and management of diabetes.

Machine learning in precision diabetes care and cardiovascular risk prediction

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are driving a paradigm shift in medicine, promising data-driven, personalized solutions for managing diabetes and the excess cardiovascular risk it poses. In this comprehensive review of machine learning applications in the care of patients with diabetes at increased cardiovascular risk, we offer a broad overview of various data-driven methods and how they may be leveraged in developing predictive models for personalized care. We review existing as well as expected artificial intelligence solutions in the context of diagnosis, prognostication, phenotyping, and treatment of diabetes and its cardiovascular complications. In addition to discussing the key properties of such models that enable their successful application in complex risk prediction, we define challenges that arise from their misuse and the role of methodological standards in overcoming these limitations. We also identify key issues in equity and bias mitigation in healthcare and discuss how the current regulatory framework should ensure the efficacy and safety of medical artificial intelligence products in transforming cardiovascular care and outcomes in diabetes.

Predicting falls-related admissions in older adults in Alberta, Canada: a machine-learning falls prevention tool developed using population administrative health data

OBJECTIVE

To construct a machine-learning (ML) model for health systems with organised falls prevention programmes to identify older adults at risk for fall-related admissions.

DESIGN

This prognostic study used population-level administrative health data to develop an ML prediction model.

SETTING

This study took place in Alberta, Canada during 2018-2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Albertans aged 65 and older with at least one prior admission. Those with palliative conditions or emigrated out of Alberta were excluded.

EXPOSURE

Unit of analysis was the individual person.

MAIN OUTCOMES/MEASURES

We identified fall-related admissions. A CatBoost model was developed on 2018 data to predict risk of fall-related emergency department visits or hospitalisations. Temporal validation was done using 2019 data to evaluate model performance. We reported discrimination, calibration and other relevant metrics measured at the end of 2019 on both ranked predictions and predicted probability thresholds. A cost-savings simulation was performed using 2019 data.

RESULTS

Final number of study participants was 224 445. The validation set had 203 584 participants with 19 389 fall-related events (9.5% pretest probability) and an ML model c-statistic of 0.70. The highest ranked predictions had post-test probabilities ranging from 40% to 50%. Net benefit analysis presented mixed results with some net benefit using the ML model in the 6%-30% range. The top 50 percentile of predicted risks represented nearly $C60 million in health system costs related to falls. Intervening on the top 25 or 50 percentiles of predicted risk could realise substantial (up to $C16 million) savings.

CONCLUSION

ML prediction models based on population-level administrative data can assist health systems with fall prevention programmes identify older adults at risk of fall-related admissions and reduce costs. ML predictions based on ranked predictions or probability thresholds could guide subsequent interventions to mitigate fall risks. Increased access to diverse forms of data could improve ML performance and further reduce costs.

Machine learning for predicting diabetes risk in western China adults

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes mellitus is a global epidemic disease. Long-time exposure of patients to hyperglycemia can lead to various type of chronic tissue damage. Early diagnosis of and screening for diabetes are crucial to population health.

METHODS

We collected the national physical examination data in Xinjiang, China, in 2020 (a total of more than 4 million people). Three types of physical examination indices were analyzed: questionnaire, routine physical examination and laboratory values. Integrated learning, deep learning and logistic regression methods were used to establish a risk model for type-2 diabetes mellitus. In addition, to improve the convenience and flexibility of the model, a diabetes risk score card was established based on logistic regression to assess the risk of the population.

RESULTS

An XGBoost-based risk prediction model outperformed the other five risk assessment algorithms. The AUC of the model was 0.9122. Based on the feature importance ranking map, we found that hypertension, fasting blood glucose, age, coronary heart disease, ethnicity, parental diabetes mellitus, triglycerides, waist circumference, total cholesterol, and body mass index were the most important features of the risk prediction model for type-2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study established a diabetes risk assessment model based on multiple ethnicities, a large sample and many indices, and classified the diabetes risk of the population, thus providing a new forecast tool for the screening of patients and providing information on diabetes prevention for healthy populations.

Machine learning approach to predict body weight in adults

Background

Obesity is an established risk factor for non-communicable diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Thus, weight control is a key factor in the prevention of non-communicable diseases. A simple and quick method to predict weight change over a few years could be helpful for weight management in clinical settings.

Methods

We examined the ability of a machine learning model that we constructed to predict changes in future body weight over 3 years using big data. Input in the machine learning model were three-year data on 50,000 Japanese persons (32,977 men) aged 19-91 years who underwent annual health examinations. The predictive formulas that used heterogeneous mixture learning technology (HMLT) to predict body weight in the subsequent 3 years were validated for 5,000 persons. The root mean square error (RMSE) was used to evaluate accuracy compared with multiple regression.

Results

The machine learning model utilizing HMLT automatically generated five predictive formulas. The influence of lifestyle on body weight was found to be large in people with a high body mass index (BMI) at baseline (BMI ≥29.93 kg/m²) and in young people (<24 years) with a low BMI (BMI <23.44 kg/m²). The RMSE was 1.914 in the validation set which reflects ability comparable to that of the multiple regression model of 1.890 (p = 0.323).

Conclusion

The HMLT-based machine learning model could successfully predict weight change over 3 years. Our model could automatically identify groups whose lifestyle profoundly impacted weight loss and factors the influenced body weight change in individuals. Although this model must be validated in other populations, including other ethnic groups, before being widely implemented in global clinical settings, results suggested that this machine learning model could contribute to individualized weight management.

Machine Learning as a Support for the Diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes

Diabetes is a chronic, metabolic disease characterized by high blood sugar levels. Among the main types of diabetes, type 2 is the most common. Early diagnosis and treatment can prevent or delay the onset of complications. Previous studies examined the application of machine learning techniques for prediction of the pathology, and here an artificial neural network shows very promising results as a possible valuable aid in the management and prevention of diabetes. Additionally, its superior ability for long-term predictions makes it an ideal choice for this field of study. We utilized machine learning methods to uncover previously undiscovered associations between an individual’s health status and the development of type 2 diabetes, with the goal of accurately predicting its onset or determining the individual’s risk level. Our study employed a binary classifier, trained on scratch, to identify potential nonlinear relationships between the onset of type 2 diabetes and a set of parameters obtained from patient measurements. Three datasets were utilized, i.e., the National Center for Health Statistics’ (NHANES) biennial survey, MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV. These datasets were then combined to create a single dataset with the same number of individuals with and without type 2 diabetes. Since the dataset was balanced, the primary evaluation metric for the model was accuracy. The outcomes of this study were encouraging, with the model achieving accuracy levels of up to 86% and a ROC AUC value of 0.934. Further investigation is needed to improve the reliability of the model by considering multiple measurements from the same patient over time.

A Strategic Research Framework for Defeating Diabetes in India: A 21st-Century Agenda

Indian people are at high risk for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) even at younger ages and lower body weights. Already 74 million people in India have the disease, and the proportion of those with T2DM is increasing across all strata of society. Unique aspects, related to lower insulin secretion or function, and higher hepatic fat deposition, accompanied by the rise in overweight (related to lifestyle changes) may all be responsible for this unrelenting epidemic of T2DM. Yet, research to understand the causes, pathophysiology, phenotypes, prevention, treatment, and healthcare delivery of T2DM in India seriously lags behind. There are major opportunities for scientific discovery and technological innovation, which if tapped can generate solutions for T2DM relevant to the country's context and make leading contributions to global science. We analyze the situation of T2DM in India, and present a four-pillar (etiology, precision medicine, implementation research, and health policy) strategic research framework to tackle the challenge. We offer key research questions for each pillar, and identify infrastructure needs. India offers a fertile environment for shifting the paradigm from imprecise late-stage diabetes treatment toward early-stage precision prevention and care. Investing in and leveraging academic and technological infrastructures, across the disciplines of science, engineering, and medicine, can accelerate progress toward a diabetes-free nation.

Diabetes Monitoring System in Smart Health Cities Based on Big Data Intelligence

Diabetes is a metabolic disorder in which the body is unable to properly regulate blood sugar levels. It can occur when the body does not produce enough insulin or when cells become resistant to insulin’s effects. There are two main types of diabetes, Type 1 and Type 2, which have different causes and risk factors. Early detection of diabetes allows for early intervention and management of the condition. This can help prevent or delay the development of serious complications associated with diabetes. Early diagnosis also allows for individuals to make lifestyle changes to prevent the progression of the disease. Healthcare systems play a vital role in the management and treatment of diabetes. They provide access to diabetes education, regular check-ups, and necessary medications for individuals with diabetes. They also provide monitoring and management of diabetes-related complications, such as heart disease, kidney failure, and neuropathy. Through early detection, prevention and management programs, healthcare systems can help improve the quality of life and outcomes for people with diabetes. Current initiatives in healthcare systems for diabetes may fail due to lack of access to education and resources for individuals with diabetes. There may also be inadequate follow-up and monitoring for those who have been diagnosed, leading to poor management of the disease and lack of prevention of complications. Additionally, current initiatives may not be tailored to specific cultural or demographic groups, resulting in a lack of effectiveness for certain populations. In this study, we developed a diabetes prediction system using a healthcare framework. The system employs various machine learning methods, such as K-nearest neighbors, decision tree, deep learning, SVM, random forest, AdaBoost and logistic regression. The performance of the system was evaluated using the PIMA Indians Diabetes dataset and achieved a training accuracy of 82% and validation accuracy of 80%.

Recent applications of machine learning and deep learning models in the prediction, diagnosis, and management of diabetes: a comprehensive review

Diabetes as a metabolic illness can be characterized by increased amounts of blood glucose. This abnormal increase can lead to critical detriment to the other organs such as the kidneys, eyes, heart, nerves, and blood vessels. Therefore, its prediction, prognosis, and management are essential to prevent harmful effects and also recommend more useful treatments. For these goals, machine learning algorithms have found considerable attention and have been developed successfully. This review surveys the recently proposed machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for the objectives mentioned earlier. The reported results disclose that the ML and DL algorithms are promising approaches for controlling blood glucose and diabetes. However, they should be improved and employed in large datasets to affirm their applicability.

Use of Artificial Intelligence in the Search for New Information Through Routine Laboratory Tests: Systematic Review

Background

In recent decades, the use of artificial intelligence has been widely explored in health care. Similarly, the amount of data generated in the most varied medical processes has practically doubled every year, requiring new methods of analysis and treatment of these data. Mainly aimed at aiding in the diagnosis and prevention of diseases, this precision medicine has shown great potential in different medical disciplines. Laboratory tests, for example, almost always present their results separately as individual values. However, physicians need to analyze a set of results to propose a supposed diagnosis, which leads us to think that sets of laboratory tests may contain more information than those presented separately for each result. In this way, the processes of medical laboratories can be strongly affected by these techniques.

Objective

In this sense, we sought to identify scientific research that used laboratory tests and machine learning techniques to predict hidden information and diagnose diseases.

Methods

The methodology adopted used the population, intervention, comparison, and outcomes principle, searching the main engineering and health sciences databases. The search terms were defined based on the list of terms used in the Medical Subject Heading database. Data from this study were presented descriptively and followed the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses; 2020) statement flow diagram and the National Institutes of Health tool for quality assessment of articles. During the analysis, the inclusion and exclusion criteria were independently applied by 2 authors, with a third author being consulted in cases of disagreement.

Results

Following the defined requirements, 40 studies presenting good quality in the analysis process were selected and evaluated. We found that, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in the number of works that have used this methodology, mainly because of COVID-19. In general, the studies used machine learning classification models to predict new information, and the most used parameters were data from routine laboratory tests such as the complete blood count.

Conclusions

Finally, we conclude that laboratory tests, together with machine learning techniques, can predict new tests, thus helping the search for new diagnoses. This process has proved to be advantageous and innovative for medical laboratories. It is making it possible to discover hidden information and propose additional tests, reducing the number of false negatives and helping in the early discovery of unknown diseases.

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Model to Estimate Risk of Adverse Outcomes Within 30 Days of Opioid Dispensation

IMPORTANCE

Machine learning approaches can assist opioid stewardship by identifying high-risk opioid prescribing for potential interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a machine learning model for deployment that can estimate the risk of adverse outcomes within 30 days of an opioid dispensation as a potential component of prescription drug monitoring programs using access to real-world data.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prognostic study used population-level administrative health data to construct a machine learning model. This study took place in Alberta, Canada (from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019), and included all patients 18 years and older who received at least 1 opioid dispensation from a community pharmacy within the province.

EXPOSURES

Each opioid dispensation served as the unit of analysis.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Opioid-related adverse outcomes were identified from administrative data sets. An XGBoost model was developed on 2018 data to estimate the risk of hospitalization, an emergency department visit, or mortality within 30 days of an opioid dispensation; validation on 2019 data was done to evaluate model performance. Model discrimination, calibration, and other relevant metrics are reported using daily and weekly predictions on both ranked predictions and predicted probability thresholds using all data from 2019.

RESULTS

A total of 853 324 participants represented 6 181 025 opioid dispensations, with 145 016 outcome events reported (2.3%); 46.4% of the participants were men and 53.6% were women, with a mean (SD) age of 49.1 (15.6) years for men and 51.0 (18.0) years for women. Of the outcome events, 77 326 (2.6% pretest probability) occurred within 30 days of a dispensation in the validation set (XGBoost C statistic, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.81-0.82]). The top 0.1 percentile of estimated risk had a positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 28.7, which translated to a posttest probability of 43.1%. In our simulations, the weekly measured predictions had higher positive LRs in both the highest-risk dispensations and percentiles of estimated risk compared with predictions measured daily. Net benefit analysis showed that using machine learning prediction may not add additional benefit over the entire range of probability thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that prescription drug monitoring programs can use machine learning classifiers to identify patients at risk of opioid-related adverse outcomes and intervene on high-risk ranked predictions. Better access to available administrative and clinical data could improve the prediction performance of machine learning classifiers and thus expand opioid stewardship efforts.

Priorities for successful use of artificial intelligence by public health organizations: a literature review

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve public health's ability to promote the health of all people in all communities. To successfully realize this potential and use AI for public health functions it is important for public health organizations to thoughtfully develop strategies for AI implementation. Six key priorities for successful use of AI technologies by public health organizations are discussed: 1) Contemporary data governance; 2) Investment in modernized data and analytic infrastructure and procedures; 3) Addressing the skills gap in the workforce; 4) Development of strategic collaborative partnerships; 5) Use of good AI practices for transparency and reproducibility, and; 6) Explicit consideration of equity and bias.

COVID-19 in French nursing homes during the second pandemic wave: a mixed-methods cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

French nursing homes were deeply affected by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 38% of all residents infected and 5% dying. Yet, little was done to prepare these facilities for the second pandemic wave, and subsequent outbreak response strategies largely duplicated what had been done in the spring of 2020, regardless of the unique needs of the care home environment.

METHODS

A cross-sectional, mixed-methods study using a retrospective, quantitative data from residents of 14 nursing homes between November 2020 and mid-January 2021. Four facilities were purposively selected as qualitative study sites for additional in-person, in-depth interviews in January and February 2021.

RESULTS

The average attack rate in the 14 participating nursing facilities was 39% among staff and 61% among residents. One-fifth (20) of infected residents ultimately died from COVID-19 and its complications. Failure to thrive syndrome (FTTS) was diagnosed in 23% of COVID-19-positive residents. Those at highest risk of death were men (HR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.70; p=0.006), with FTTS (HR=4.04; 95% CI: 1.93 to 8.48; p<0.001) or in facilities with delayed implementation of universal FFP2 masking policies (HR=1.05; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.07; p<0.001). The lowest mortality was found in residents of facilities with a partial (HR=0.30; 95% CI: 0.18 to 0.51; p<0.001) or full-time physician on staff (HR=0.20; 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.53; p=0.001). Significant themes emerging from qualitative analysis centred on (1) the structural, chronic neglect of nursing homes, (2) the negative effects of the top-down, bureaucratic nature of COVID-19 crisis response, and (3) the counterproductive effects of lockdowns on both residents and staff.

CONCLUSION

Despite high resident mortality during the first pandemic wave, French nursing homes were ill-prepared for the second, with risk factors (especially staffing, lack of medical support, isolation/quarantine policy, etc) that affected case fatality and residents' and caregivers' overall well-being and mental health.

Predicting misdiagnosed adult-onset type 1 diabetes using machine learning

AIMS

It is now understood that almost half of newly diagnosed cases of type 1 diabetes are adult-onset. However, type 1 and type 2 diabetes are difficult to initially distinguish clinically in adults, potentially leading to ineffective care. In this study a machine learning model was developed to identify type 1 diabetes patients misdiagnosed as type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, a machine learning model was developed to identify misdiagnosed type 1 diabetes patients from a population of patients with a prior type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Using Ambulatory Electronic Medical Records (AEMR), features capturing relevant information on age, demographics, risk factors, symptoms, treatments, procedures, vitals, or lab results were extracted from patients' medical history.

RESULTS

The model identified age, BMI/weight, therapy history, and HbA1c/blood glucose values among top predictors of misdiagnosis. Model precision at low levels of recall (10 %) was 17 %, compared to <1 % incidence rate of misdiagnosis at the time of the first type 2 diabetes encounter in AEMR.

CONCLUSIONS

This algorithm shows potential for being translated into screening guidelines or a clinical decision support tool embedded directly in an EMR system to reduce misdiagnosis of adult-onset type 1 diabetes and implement effective care at the outset.

Predicting the 2-Year Risk of Progression from Prediabetes to Diabetes Using Machine Learning among Chinese Elderly Adults

Identifying people with a high risk of developing diabetes among those with prediabetes may facilitate the implementation of a targeted lifestyle and pharmacological interventions. We aimed to establish machine learning models based on demographic and clinical characteristics to predict the risk of incident diabetes. We used data from the free medical examination service project for elderly people who were 65 years or older to develop logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning models for the follow-up results of 2019 and 2020 and performed internal validation. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and F1 score were used to select the model with better performance. The average annual progression rate to diabetes in prediabetic elderly people was 14.21%. Each model was trained using eight features and one outcome variable from 9607 prediabetic individuals, and the performance of the models was assessed in 2402 prediabetes patients. The predictive ability of four models in the first year was better than in the second year. The XGBoost model performed relatively efficiently (ROC: 0.6742 for 2019 and 0.6707 for 2020). We established and compared four machine learning models to predict the risk of progression from prediabetes to diabetes. Although there was little difference in the performance of the four models, the XGBoost model had a relatively good ROC value, which might perform well in future exploration in this field.

Predicting the Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Elderly Using Machine Learning Techniques

Early identification of individuals at high risk of diabetes is crucial for implementing early intervention strategies. However, algorithms specific to elderly Chinese adults are lacking. The aim of this study is to build effective prediction models based on machine learning (ML) for the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Chinese elderly. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the health screening data of adults older than 65 years in Wuhan, China from 2018 to 2020. With a strict data filtration, 127,031 records from the eligible participants were utilized. Overall, 8298 participants were diagnosed with incident T2DM during the 2-year follow-up (2019–2020). The dataset was randomly split into training set (n = 101,625) and test set (n = 25,406). We developed prediction models based on four ML algorithms: logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Using LASSO regression, 21 prediction features were selected. The Random under-sampling (RUS) was applied to address the class imbalance, and the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) was used to calculate and visualize feature importance. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. The XGBoost model achieved the best performance (AUC = 0.7805, sensitivity = 0.6452, specificity = 0.7577, accuracy = 0.7503). Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), education, exercise, gender, and waist circumference (WC) were the top five important predictors. This study showed that XGBoost model can be applied to screen individuals at high risk of T2DM in the early phrase, which has the strong potential for intelligent prevention and control of diabetes. The key features could also be useful for developing targeted diabetes prevention interventions.

Development and validation of a diabetes mellitus and prediabetes risk prediction function for case finding in primary care in Hong Kong: a cross-sectional study and a prospective study protocol paper

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major non-communicable disease with an increasing prevalence. Undiagnosed DM is not uncommon and can lead to severe complications and mortality. Identifying high-risk individuals at an earlier disease stage, that is, pre-diabetes (pre-DM), is crucial in delaying progression. Existing risk models mainly rely on non-modifiable factors to predict only the DM risk, and few apply to Chinese people. This study aims to develop and validate a risk prediction function that incorporates modifiable lifestyle factors to detect DM and pre-DM in Chinese adults in primary care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A cross-sectional study to develop DM/Pre-DM risk prediction functions using data from the Hong Kong's Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/2015 and a 12-month prospective study to validate the functions in case finding of individuals with DM/pre-DM. Data of 1857 Chinese adults without self-reported DM/Pre-DM will be extracted from the PHS 2014/2015 to develop DM/Pre-DM risk models using logistic regression and machine learning methods. 1014 Chinese adults without a known history of DM/Pre-DM will be recruited from public and private primary care clinics in Hong Kong. They will complete a questionnaire on relevant risk factors and blood tests on Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) and haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) on recruitment and, if the first blood test is negative, at 12 months. A positive case is DM/pre-DM defined by OGTT or HbA1c in any blood test. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the models in detecting DM/pre-DM will be calculated.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been received from The University of Hong Kong/Hong Kong Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster (UW19-831) and Hong Kong Hospital Authority Kowloon Central/Kowloon East Cluster (REC(KC/KE)-21-0042/ER-3). The study results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

US ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT04881383; HKU clinical trials registry: HKUCTR-2808; Pre-results.

Use of Machine Learning and Routine Laboratory Tests for Diabetes Mellitus Screening

Most patients with diabetes mellitus are asymptomatic, which leads to delayed and more complex treatment. At the same time, most individuals are routinely subjected to standard clinical laboratory examinations, which create large health datasets over a lifetime. Computer processing has been used to search for health anomalies and predict diseases using clinical examinations. This work studied machine learning models to support the screening of diabetes through routine laboratory tests using data from laboratory tests of 62,496 patients. The classification and regression models used were the K-nearest neighbor, support vector machines, Bayes naïve, random forest models, and artificial neural networks. Glycated hemoglobin, a test used for diabetes diagnosis, was used as the target. Regression models calculated glycated hemoglobin directly and were later classified. The performance of classification computer models has been studied under various subdataset partitions and combinations (e.g., healthy, prediabetic, and diabetes, as well as no healthy and no diabetes). The best single performance was achieved with the artificial neural network model when detecting prediabetes or diabetes. The artificial neural network classification model scored 78.1%, 78.7%, and 78.4% for sensitivity, precision, and F1 scores, respectively, when identifying no healthy group. Other models also had good results, depending on what is desired. Machine learning-based models can predict glycated hemoglobin values from routine laboratory tests and can be used as a screening tool to refer a patient for further testing.

Nonlaboratory-based risk assessment model for coronary heart disease screening: Model development and validation

BACKGROUND

Identifying groups at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is important to reduce mortality due to CHD. Although machine learning methods have been introduced, many require laboratory or imaging parameters, which are not always readily available; thus, their wide applications are limited.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a simple, efficient, and joint machine learning model for identifying individuals at high risk of CHD using easily obtainable nonlaboratory parameters.

METHODS

This prospective study used data from the Henan Rural Cohort Study, which was conducted in rural areas of Henan Province, China, between July 2015 and September 2017. A joint machine learning model was developed by selecting and combining four base machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting machine (GBM). We used readily accessible variables, including demographics, medical and family history, lifestyle and dietary factors, and anthropometric data, to inform the model. The model was also externally validated by a cohort of individuals from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study. Model discrimination was assessed by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was measured by using the Brier score (BS).

RESULTS

A total of 38 716 participants (mean [SD] age, 55.64[12.19] years; 23449[60.6%] female) from the Henan Rural Cohort Study and 17 958 subjects (mean [SD] age, 62.74 [7.59] years; 10,076 [56.1%] female) from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study were included in the analysis. Age, waist circumference, pulse pressure, heart rate, family history of CHD, education level, family history of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and family history of dyslipidaemia were strongly associated with the development of CHD. In regard to internal validation, the model we built demonstrated good discrimination (AUC, 0.844 (95% CI 0.828-0.860)) and had acceptable calibration (BS, 0. 066). In regard to external validation, the model performed well with clearly useful discrimination (AUC, 0.792 (95% CI 0.774-0.810)) and robust calibration (BS, 0.069).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the novel and simple, machine learning-based model comprising readily accessible variables accurately identified individuals at high risk of CHD. This model has the potential to be widely applied for large-scale screening of CHD populations, especially in medical resource-constrained settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The Henan Rural Cohort Study has been registered at the Chinese Clinical Trial Register. (Trial registration: ChiCTR-OOC-15006699. Registered 6 July 2015 - Retrospectively registered) http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=11375.

Machine learning and deep learning predictive models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

Diabetes Mellitus is a severe, chronic disease that occurs when blood glucose levels rise above certain limits. Over the last years, machine and deep learning techniques have been used to predict diabetes and its complications. However, researchers and developers still face two main challenges when building type 2 diabetes predictive models. First, there is considerable heterogeneity in previous studies regarding techniques used, making it challenging to identify the optimal one. Second, there is a lack of transparency about the features used in the models, which reduces their interpretability. This systematic review aimed at providing answers to the above challenges. The review followed the PRISMA methodology primarily, enriched with the one proposed by Keele and Durham Universities. Ninety studies were included, and the type of model, complementary techniques, dataset, and performance parameters reported were extracted. Eighteen different types of models were compared, with tree-based algorithms showing top performances. Deep Neural Networks proved suboptimal, despite their ability to deal with big and dirty data. Balancing data and feature selection techniques proved helpful to increase the model's efficiency. Models trained on tidy datasets achieved almost perfect models.

Artificial Intelligence in Current Diabetes Management and Prediction

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Artificial intelligence (AI) can make advanced inferences based on a large amount of data. The mainstream technologies of the AI boom in 2021 are machine learning (ML) and deep learning, which have made significant progress due to the increase in computational resources accompanied by the dramatic improvement in computer performance. In this review, we introduce AI/ML-based medical devices and prediction models regarding diabetes.

RECENT FINDINGS

In the field of diabetes, several AI-/ML-based medical devices and regarding automatic retinal screening, clinical diagnosis support, and patient self-management tool have already been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. As for new-onset diabetes prediction using ML methods, its performance is not superior to conventional risk stratification models that use statistical approaches so far. Despite the current situation, it is expected that the predictive performance of AI will soon be maximized by a large amount of organized data and abundant computational resources, which will contribute to a dramatic improvement in the accuracy of disease prediction models for diabetes.

Increased risk of COVID-19-related admissions in patients with active solid organ cancer in the West Midlands region of the UK: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Susceptibility of patients with cancer to COVID-19 pneumonitis has been variable. We aim to quantify the risk of hospitalisation in patients with active cancer and use a machine learning algorithm (MLA) and traditional statistics to predict clinical outcomes and mortality.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

A single UK district general hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

Data on total hospital admissions between March 2018 and June 2020, all active cancer diagnoses between March 2019 and June 2020 and clinical parameters of COVID-19-positive admissions between March 2020 and June 2020 were collected. 526 COVID-19 admissions without an active cancer diagnosis were compared with 87 COVID-19 admissions with an active cancer diagnosis.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

30-day and 90-day post-COVID-19 survival.

RESULTS

In total, 613 patients were enrolled with male to female ratio of 1:6 and median age of 77 years. The estimated infection rate of COVID-19 was 87 of 22 729 (0.4%) in the patients with cancer and 526 of 404 379 (0.1%) in the population without cancer (OR of being hospitalised with COVID-19 if having cancer is 2.942671 (95% CI: 2.344522 to 3.693425); p<0.001). Survival was reduced in patients with cancer with COVID-19 at 90 days. R-Studio software determined the association between cancer status, COVID-19 and 90-day survival against variables using MLA. Multivariate analysis showed increases in age (OR 1.039 (95% CI: 1.020 to 1.057), p<0.001), urea (OR 1.005 (95% CI: 1.002 to 1.007), p<0.001) and C reactive protein (CRP) (OR 1.065 (95% CI: 1.016 to 1.116), p<0.008) are associated with greater 30-day and 90-day mortality. The MLA model examined the contribution of predictive variables for 90-day survival (area under the curve: 0.749); with transplant patients, age, male gender and diabetes mellitus being predictors of greater mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Active cancer diagnosis has a threefold increase in risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19. Increased age, urea and CRP predict mortality in patients with cancer. MLA complements traditional statistical analysis in identifying prognostic variables for outcomes of COVID-19 infection in patients with cancer. This study provides proof of concept for MLA in risk prediction for COVID-19 in patients with cancer and should inform a redesign of cancer services to ensure safe delivery of cancer care.