Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

Global terrestrial drought and its projected socioeconomic implications under different warming targets

Droughts are increasingly frequent as the Earth warms, presenting adaptation challenges for ecosystems and human communities worldwide. A strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and the integration of adaptation strategies into policies, plans, and programs (PPP) are two important approaches for enhancing climate resilience and fostering sustainable development. This study developed an innovative approach to strengthen the SEA of droughts by quantifying the impacts of future temperature increases. A novel method for projecting drought events was integrated into the SEA process by leveraging multiple data sources, including atmospheric reanalysis, reconstructions, satellite-based observations, and model simulations. We identified drought conditions using terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomalies and applied a random forest (RF) model for disentangling the drivers behind drought events. We then set two global warming targets (2.0 °C and 2.5 °C) and analyzed drought changes under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585). In a 2.0 °C warming world, over 50 % of the global surface will face increased drought risk. With an additional 0.5 °C increase, >60 % of the land will be prone to further drought escalation. We utilized copulas to build the joint distribution for drought duration and severity, estimating the joint return periods (JRP) for bivariate drought hazard. In tropical and subtropical regions, JRP reductions exceeding half are projected for >33 % of the regional land surface under 2.0 °C warming and for >50 % under 2.5 °C warming. Finally, we projected the impacts of drought events on population and gross domestic product (GDP). Among the three SSPs, under SSP370, population exposure is highest and GDP exposure is minimal under 2.0 °C warming. Global GDP and population risks from drought are projected to increase by 37 % and 24 %, respectively, as warming continues. This study enhances the accuracy of SEA in addressing drought risks and vulnerabilities, supporting climate-resilient planning and adaptive strategies.

Improving flood and drought management in transboundary Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia

The two contrasting extremes of the hydrological spectrum have substantial and far-reaching impacts on a wide range of sectors including water resources, agriculture and food security, energy, infrastructure, and ecosystem. The compounding factors of climate change, burgeoning population, and rapid economic development create unprecedented challenges in devising effective and sustainable strategies to cope with these natural disasters and minimize their devastating impacts. This study identifies the geographical areas that are prone to meteorological wet-dry extreme events, as drivers of hydrologic floods and droughts, and their temporal compounding in the transboundary Upper Jhelum Basin-South Asia. Additionally, the study provides a comprehensive overview of the existing and proposed water development projects, their coping capacities, and potential impacts that may be positive or negative in hydrologic, social, economic and environment terms. Extensive review and data analysis revealed that the both Pakistan and India, along with state governments, have implemented a significant number of water-related projects across the basin, however significant progress towards achieving their stated goals remains elusive. Currently, Pakistan operates 15 runoff river type hydropower plants, and an additional 11 similar projects are under construction. In contrast, Indian administrative Kashmir has 10 such plants in operation and 4 under construction. The primary factors that impede the realization of expected benefits from these projects are geography, high flow variability across seasons, climate change, insufficient planning, geopolitical disputes, lack of transboundary cooperation, financial limitations, and reservoir operation. Based on these factors, the present study suggests some alternative water management measures that offer flexibility, cost-effectiveness, accessibility, and a low environmental impact. These solutions include implementation of sub-surface floodwater harvesting system in the southwest of the basin, where extreme wet and dry events occur in close succession, augmentation of existing hydropower reservoirs with floating photovoltaic technology, and non-structural measures, including early warning systems, ecosystems-based adaptation, and green infrastructure interventions such as restoring headwater forests, reclaiming floodplains, and wetlands. This will result in reduced flood and drought impacts at local and downstream areas and reduce the reliance of local communities on forest wood.

Transcriptomic and physiological responses of Quercus acutissima and Quercus palustris to drought stress and rewatering

Establishment of oak seedlings, which is an important factor in forest restoration, is affected by drought that hampers the survival, growth, and development of seedlings. Therefore, it is necessary to understand how seedlings respond to and recover from water-shortage stress. We subjected seedlings of two oak species, Quercus acutissima and Quercus palustris, to drought stress for one month and then rewatered them for six days to observe physiological and genetic expression changes. Phenotypically, the growth of Q. acutissima was reduced and severe wilting and recovery failure were observed in Q. palustris after an increase in plant temperature. The two species differed in several physiological parameters during drought stress and recovery. Although the photosynthesis-related indicators did not change in Q. acutissima, they were decreased in Q. palustris. Moreover, during drought, content of soluble sugars was significantly increased in both species, but it recovered to original levels only in Q. acutissima. Malondialdehyde content increased in both the species during drought, but it did not recover in Q. palustris after rewatering. Among the antioxidant enzymes, only superoxide dismutase activity increased in Q. acutissima during drought, whereas activities of ascorbate peroxidase, catalase, and glutathione reductase increased in Q. palustris. Abscisic acid levels were increased and then maintained in Q. acutissima, but recovered to previous levels after rewatering in Q. palustris. RNA samples from the control, drought, recovery day 1, and recovery day 6 treatment groups were compared using transcriptome analysis. Q. acutissima exhibited 832 and 1076 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) related to drought response and recovery, respectively, whereas Q. palustris exhibited 3947 and 1587 DEGs, respectively under these conditions. Gene ontology enrichment of DEGs revealed "response to water," "apoplast," and "Protein self-association" to be common to both the species. However, in the heatmap analysis of genes related to sucrose and starch synthesis, glycolysis, antioxidants, and hormones, the two species exhibited very different transcriptome responses. Nevertheless, the levels of most DEGs returned to their pre-drought levels after rewatering. These results provide a basic foundation for understanding the physiological and genetic expression responses of oak seedlings to drought stress and recovery.

Diminishing warming effects on plant phenology over time

Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long-term warming. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases - leaf-out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring. We showed that warming advanced leaf-out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf-out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended. Together, these results suggest that the real-world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase.

Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

The Microbiome of Fertilization-Stage Maize Silks (Style) Encodes Genes and Expresses Traits That Potentially Promote Survival in Pollen/Style Niches and Host Reproduction

Within flowers, the style channel receives pollen and transmits male gametes inside elongating pollen tubes to ovules. The styles of maize/corn are called silks. Fertilization-stage silks possess complex microbiomes, which may partially derive from pollen. These microbiomes lack functional analysis. We hypothesize that fertilization-stage silk microbiomes promote host fertilization to ensure their own vertical transmission. We further hypothesize that these microbes encode traits to survive stresses within the silk (water/nitrogen limitation) and pollen (dehydration/aluminum) habitats. Here, bacteria cultured from fertilization-stage silks of 14 North American maize genotypes underwent genome mining and functional testing, which revealed osmoprotection, nitrogen-fixation, and aluminum-tolerance traits. Bacteria contained auxin biosynthesis genes, and testing confirmed indole compound secretion, which is relevant, since pollen delivers auxin to silks to stimulate egg cell maturation. Some isolates encoded biosynthetic/transport compounds known to regulate pollen tube guidance/growth. The isolates encoded ACC deaminase, which degrades the precursor for ethylene that otherwise accelerates silk senescence. The findings suggest that members of the microbiome of fertilization-stage silks encode adaptations to survive the stress conditions of silk/pollen and have the potential to express signaling compounds known to impact reproduction. Overall, whereas these microbial traits have traditionally been assumed to primarily promote vegetative plant growth, this study proposes they may also play selfish roles during host reproduction.

Effect of Warming on Personality of Mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) and Medaka Fish (Oryzias latipes)

Global warming may accelerate the process of biological invasions, and invasive species that can quickly adapt to new environments will have a negative impact on native species. Animal personalities have significant implications for ecology and evolution. However, few studies have simultaneously examined the combined effects of climate warming and biological invasions on native species. In this study, we hypothesized that temperature was positively correlated with personality, and invasive species had stronger personalities than native species. Accordingly, we established control (20 °C) and warming groups (20 °C, 25 °C, and 30 °C) to rear mosquitofish and medaka fish, individuals acclimatized to rearing temperatures for 7 days, then measured their personalities (sociability, exploration, novelty, and boldness). The results showed that individuals exhibited repeatable variation along the four behavioral axes across all temperature conditions, providing evidence for the presence of personalities. Significant positive correlations were found between each pair of behaviors, indicating the presence of behavioral syndrome. Sociability and exploration were most affected by temperature, showing increasing trends in sociability, exploration, and novelty in both invasive and native species with rising temperatures. Compared to medaka fish, mosquitofish exhibited higher exploration and lower sociability at elevated temperatures, while showing little change in boldness. Our results provide evidence that increased temperatures may promote biological invasions and pose a potential threat to the survival of native species. These findings are significant for understanding the complex impacts of climate change on ecosystems and for formulating effective biodiversity preservation strategies.

A novel stabilized artificial neural network model enhanced by variational mode decomposing

Existing artificial neural networks (ANNs) have attempted to efficiently identify underlying patterns in environmental series, but their structure optimization needs a trial-and-error process or an external optimization effort. This makes ANNs time consuming and more complex to be applied in practice. To alleviate these issues, we propose a stabilized ANNs, called SANN. The SANN efficiently optimizes ANN structure via incorporation of an additional numeric parameter into every layer of the ANN. To exemplify the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed approach, we provided two practical case studies involving meteorological drought forecasting at cities of Burdur and Isparta, Türkiye. To enhance SANN forecasting accuracy, we further suggested the hybrid VMD-SANN that integrated variation mode decomposition (VMD) with SANN. To validate the new hybrid model, we compared its results with those obtained from hybrid VMD-ANN and VMD-Radial Base Function (VMD-RBF) models. The results showed superiority of the VMD-SANN to its counterparts. Regarding Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency measure, the VMD-SANN achieves accurate forecasts as high as 0.945 and 0.980 in Burdur and Isparta cities, respectively.

Physiological carry-over effects of variable precipitation are mediated by reproductive status in a long-lived ungulate

In the age of global climate change, extreme climatic events are expected to increase in frequency and severity. Animals will be forced to cope with these novel stressors in their environment. Glucocorticoids (i.e. 'stress' hormones) facilitate an animal's ability to cope with their environment. To date, most studies involving glucocorticoids focus on the immediate physiological effects of an environmental stressor on an individual, few studies have investigated the long-term physiological impacts of such stressors. Here, we tested the hypothesis that previous exposure to an environmental stressor will impart lasting consequences to an individual's glucocorticoid levels. In semi-arid environments, variable rainfall drives forage availability for herbivores. Reduced seasonal precipitation can present an extreme environmental stressor potentially imparting long-term impacts on an individual's glucocorticoid levels. We examined the effects of rainfall and environmental characteristics (i.e. soil and vegetation attributes) during fawn-rearing (i.e. summer) on subsequent glucocorticoid levels of female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in autumn. We captured 124 adult (≥2.5-year-old) female deer via aerial net-gunning during autumn of 2015, 2016 and 2021 across four populations spanning a gradient of environmental characteristics and rainfall in the semi-arid environment of South Texas, USA. We found for every 1 cm decrease in summer rainfall, faecal glucocorticoid levels in autumn increased 6.9%, but only in lactating females. Glucocorticoid levels in non-lactating, female deer were relatively insensitive to environmental conditions. Our study demonstrates the long-lasting effects of environmental stressors on an individual's glucocorticoid levels. A better understanding of the long-term effects stressors impart on an individual's glucocorticoid levels will help to evaluate the totality of the cost of a stressor to an individual's welfare and predict the consequences of future climate scenarios.

Exogenous glycine betaine alleviates water-deficit stress in Indian pennywort (Centella asiatica) under greenhouse conditions

Centella asiatica (Indian pennywort) is a green leafy vegetable containing centelloside' (triterpenoid), a key phytochemical component in traditional medicine. Being a glycophytic species, they exhibit decline in growth performance and yield traits when subjected to water-deficit (WD) conditions. Glycine betaine (GB) is a low molecular-weight organic metabolite that plays a crucial role in abiotic stress conditions in higher plants. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of GB in alleviating water-deficit stress (in terms of morphological and physiological responses) in two different genotypes of Indian pennywort, "Nakhon Pathom" (NP; high centelloside-yielding genotype) and "Pathum Thani" (PT; low centelloside-yielding genotype). The genotypes of Indian pennywort were propagated by stolon cutting and transplanted into plastic bags containing 2 kg of garden soil. At the flower-initiation stage (30 days after transplantation), uniform plant material was treated exogenously with 0 (control), 25, and 50 mM GB at 100 mL per plant (one-time foliar spray) and then divided into two groups, 1) well watered (WW; irrigated daily with 400 mL fresh water; 98% field capacity) and 2) water deficit (WD; withheld water for 14 days; 72% field capacity). Foliar application of GB (25 mM) significantly improved leaf osmotic potential in NP under WD conditions via osmotic adjustment by free proline and fructose. Differences in leaf temperature (Tleaf) between WD and WW in NP were maximized (+ 1.93 °C) and the gap of Tleaf was reduced in the case of 25-50 mM GB application. Similarly, crop water stress index (CWSI) in NP and PT plants under WD condition was significantly increased by 1.95- and 1.86-fold over the control, respectively; however, it was significantly decreased by exogenous GB application. Increasing Tleaf and CWSI in drought-stressed plants was closely related to stomatal closure, leading to reduced gas exchange parameters, i.e., stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration rate (E), net photosynthetic rate (Pn), and intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci), and consequently decreased plant biomass and total centelloside yield. Overall physiological, morphological, and secondary metabolite traits were enhanced in NP under WD conditions using 25 mM GB exogenous application compared with the control. The study highlights the significance of GB in Indian pennywort production under limited water irrigation (water deficit) with higher vegetable yield and phytochemical stabilization.

African dryland antelope trade-off behaviours in response to heat extremes

Climate change is predicted to narrow the prescriptive zone of dryland species, potentially leading to behavioural modifications with fitness consequences. This study explores the behavioural responses of three widespread African antelope species-springbok, kudu and eland-to extreme heat in a dryland savanna. We classified the behaviour of 29 individuals during the hot, dry season on the basis of accelerometer data using supervised machine learning and analysed the impact of afternoon heat on behaviour-specific time allocation and overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA), a proxy for energy expenditure, along with compensatory changes over the 24-hour cycle. Extreme afternoon heat reduced feeding time in all three antelope species, increased ruminating and resting time, while only minimally affecting walking time. With rising heat, all three species reduced ODBA on feeding, while eland reduced and kudu increased ODBA on walking. Diel responses in behaviour differed between species, but were generally characterised by daytime reductions in feeding and increases in ruminating or resting on hot days compared to cool days. While antelope compensated for heat-driven behavioural change over the 24-hour cycle in some cases, significant differences persisted in others, including reduced feeding and increased rumination and resting. The impact of heat on antelope behaviour reveals trade-offs between feeding and thermoregulation, as well as between feeding and rumination, the latter suggesting a strategy to enhance nutrient uptake through increased digestive efficiency, while the walking response suggests narrow constraints between cost and necessity. Our findings suggest that heat influences both behaviour-specific time allocation and energy expenditure. Altered diel behaviour patterns and incomplete compensation over the 24-hour cycle point to fitness consequences. The need to prioritise thermoregulation over feeding is likely to narrow the prescriptive zone of these dryland antelope.

The seasonal variability of future evapotranspiration over China during the 21st century

The evapotranspiration (ET) plays a crucial role in shaping regional climate patterns and serves as a vital indicator of ecosystem function. However, there remains a limited understanding of the seasonal variability of future ET over China and its correlation with environmental drivers. This study evaluated the skills of 27 models from the Six Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in modeling ET and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method was employed to merge monthly simulated ET based on the top five best-performing models. The seasonal changes in ET under three climate scenarios from 2030 to 2099 were analyzed based on the BMA-merged ET, which was well validated with observed ET collected from fourteen flux sites across China. Significant increasing ET over China are projected under all seasons during 2030-2099, with 0.05-0.13 mm yr-1, 0.11-0.23 mm yr-1, and 0.20-0.41 mm yr-1 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Relative to the historical period (1980-2014), the relative increase in ET over China is highest in winter and lowest in summer. Seasonal ET increases significantly in all seven climate sub-regions under high forcing scenario. Higher ET increase is generally found in southeastern humid regions, while lowest ET increase occurs in northwest China. At the country level, the primary factor driving ET increase during spring, summer, and autumn seasons is the increasing net radiation and warming. In contrast, ET increase during winter is influenced not only by energy factors but also by vegetation-related factors. Future seasonal ET increase is predominantly driven by increasing energy factors in the southeastern humid region and Tibetan Plateau, while seasonal ET changes in the northwest region prevailingly depend on soil moisture. Results indicate that China will experience a "wet season will get wetter, and dry season will become drier" in the 21st century with high radiation forcing scenario.

Heat stress from current and predicted increases in temperature impairs lambing rates and birth weights in the Australian sheep flock

Livestock heat stress threatens production, particularly in semi-arid, arid and tropical regions. Using established temperature thresholds for sheep, we modelled +1 °C and +3 °C temperature increases over the historical baseline, estimating that 2.1 million potential lambs are lost annually due to heat stress alone, increasing to 2.5 and 3.3 million, respectively, as temperatures rise. Heat stress poses risks at key periods of the reproductive cycle, with consequences across the Australian sheep flock.

The Role of Climate Change and Its Sensitivity on Long-Term Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Vegetation and Drought Changing Trends over East Asia

Droughts have become more severe and frequent due to global warming. In this context, it is widely accepted that for drought assessments, both water supply (rainfall) and demand (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) should be considered. Using SPEI, we explored the spatial-temporal patterns of dry and wet annual and seasonal changes in five sub-regions of East Asia during 1902-2018. These factors are linked to excess drought frequency and severity on the regional scale, and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change studies. Our results show that the SPEI significantly improved extreme drought and mostly affected the SPEI-06 and SPEI-12 growing seasons in East Asia during 1981-2018. The dry and wet annual SPEI trends mostly affect the five sub-regions of East Asia. The annual SPEI had two extremely dry spells during 1936-1947 and 1978-2018. Japan, South Korea, and North Korea are wet in the summer compared to other regions of East Asia, with drought frequency occurring at 51.4%, respectively. The mean drought frequencies in China and Mongolia are 57.4% and 54.6%. China and Mongolia are the driest regions in East Asia due to high drought frequency and duration. The spatial seasonal analysis of solar radiation (SR), water vapor pressure (WVP), wind speed (WS), vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), and vegetation health index (VHI) have confirmed that the East Asia region suffered from maximum drought events. The seasonal variation of SPEI shows no clear drying trends during summer and autumn seasons. During the winter and spring seasons, there was a dry trend in East Asia region. During 1902-1990, a seasonal SPEI presented diverse characteristics, with clear wet trends in Japan, Mongolia, and North Korea in four different growing seasons, with dry trends in China and South Korea. During 1991-2018, seasonal SPEI presented clear dry trends in Japan, Mongolia, and North Korea in different growing seasons, while China and South Korea showed a wet trend during the spring, autumn, and winter seasons. This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within East Asia. An understandings of long-term vegetation trends and the effects of rainfall and SPEI on droughts of varying severity is essential for water resource management and climate change adaptation. Based on the results, water resources will increase under global warming, which may alleviate the water scarcity issue in the East Asia region.

JF, Calvo DA, Carbognani M, Cardoni A, Carlyle CN, Castillo-Garcia M, Chang SX, Chieppa J, Cianciaruso MV, Cohen O, Cordeiro AL, Cusack DF, Dahlke S, Daleo P, D'Antonio CM, Dietterich LH, S. Doherty T, Dubbert M, Ebeling A, Eisenhauer N, Fischer FM, Forte TGW, Gebauer T, Gozalo B, Greenville AC, Guidoni-Martins KG, Hannusch HJ, Vatsø Haugum S, Hautier Y, Hefting M, Henry HAL, Hoss D, Ingrisch J, Iribarne O, Isbell F, Johnson Y, Jordan S, Kelly EF, Kimmel K, Kreyling J, Kröel-Dulay G, Kröpfl A, Kübert A, Kulmatiski A, Lamb EG, Larsen KS, Larson J, Lawson J, Leder CV, Linstädter A, Liu J, Liu S, Lodge AG, Longo G, Loydi A, Luan J, Curtis Lubbe F, Macfarlane C, Mackie-Haas K, Malyshev AV, Maturano-Ruiz A, Merchant T, Metcalfe DB, Mori AS, Mudongo E, Newman GS, Nielsen UN, Nimmo D, Niu Y, Nobre P, O'Connor RC, Ogaya R, Oñatibia GR, Orbán I, Osborne B, Otfinowski R, Pärtel M, Penuelas J, Peri PL, Peter G, Petraglia A, Picon-Cochard C, Pillar VD, Piñeiro-Guerra JM, Ploughe LW, Plowes RM, Portales-Reyes C, Prober SM, Pueyo Y, Reed SC, Ritchie EG, Rodríguez DA, Rogers WE, Roscher C, Sánchez AM, Santos BA, Cecilia Scarfó M, Seabloom EW, Shi B, Souza L, Stampfli A, Standish RJ, Sternberg M, Sun W, Sünnemann M, Tedder M, Thorvaldsen P, Tian D, Tielbörger K, Valdecantos A, van den Brink L, Vandvik V, Vankoughnett MR, Guri Velle L, Wang C, Wang Y, Wardle GM, Werner C, Wei C, Wiehl G, Williams JL, Wolf AA, Zeiter M, Zhang F, Zhu J, Zong N, Zuo X. Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Measuring flammability of crops, pastures, fruit trees, and weeds: A novel tool to fight wildfires in agricultural landscapes

Fires on agricultural land account for 8-11 % of the total number of fires that occur globally. These fires burn through various crops, pastures, and native vegetation on farms, causing economic and environmental losses. Fire management on farms will be aided by understanding the flammability of plant species as this would allow the design of low-flammability agricultural landscapes, but flammability data on large numbers of agricultural species are lacking. Many crop and vegetable species are assumed to be low in flammability, but this has rarely been tested. Therefore, we examined the shoot and whole-plant flammability of 47 plant taxa commonly grown on farms in Canterbury, New Zealand, which included many globally common temperate agricultural crops. We demonstrated that most of the agricultural species were low to very low in flammability, with many of them (24 taxa; 51 %) not igniting in the experimental burning. Among different crop types, fruit crops and cereals had significantly higher flammability, while taxa categorized as vegetable crops, grazing herbs, pasture grasses, pasture legumes, and weeds were lower in flammability. We further showed that taxa with lower moisture content, higher retention of dead material and faster moisture loss rates were higher in flammability. The strong variation of flammability between the studied taxa suggests that the selection of suitable low flammability species and strategic redesign of agricultural landscapes with fire-retardant planting can be a useful tool to reduce fire hazards and impacts of wildfires in agricultural landscapes.

Hydrogen-rich water: a key player in boosting wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) seedling growth and drought resilience

In the modern world, wheat, a vital global cereal and the second most consumed, is vulnerable to climate change impacts. These include erratic rainfall and extreme temperatures, endangering global food security. Research on hydrogen-rich water (HRW) has gained momentum in plant and agricultural sciences due to its diverse functions. This study examined the effects of different HRW treatment durations on wheat, revealing that the 4-h treatment had the highest germination rate, enhancing potential, vigor, and germination indexes. This treatment also boosted relative water content, root and shoot weight, and average lengths. Moreover, the 4-h HRW treatment resulted in the highest chlorophyll and soluble protein concentrations in seeds while reducing cell death. The 4-h and 5-h HRW treatments significantly increased H2O2 levels, with the highest NO detected in both root and shoot after 4-h HRW exposure. Additionally, HRW-treated seeds exhibited increased Zn and Fe concentrations, along with antioxidant enzyme activities (CAT, SOD, APX) in roots and shoots. These findings suggest that HRW treatment could enhance wheat seed germination, growth, and nutrient absorption, thereby increasing agricultural productivity. Molecular analysis indicated significant upregulation of the Dreb1 gene with a 4-h HRW treatment. Thus, it shows promise in addressing climate change effects on wheat production. Therefore, HRW treatment could be a hopeful strategy for enhancing wheat plant drought tolerance, requiring further investigation (field experiments) to validate its impact on plant growth and drought stress mitigation.

High intensity perturbations induce an abrupt shift in soil microbial state

Soil microbial communities play a pivotal role in regulating ecosystem functioning. But they are increasingly being shaped by human-induced environmental change, including intense "pulse" perturbations, such as droughts, which are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change. While it is known that soil microbial communities are sensitive to such perturbations and that effects can be long-lasting, it remains untested whether there is a threshold in the intensity and frequency of perturbations that can trigger abrupt and persistent transitions in the taxonomic and functional characteristics of soil microbial communities. Here we demonstrate experimentally that intense pulses of drought equivalent to a 30-year drought event (<15% WHC) induce a major shift in the soil microbial community characterised by significantly altered bacterial and fungal community structures of reduced complexity and functionality. Moreover, the characteristics of this transformed microbial community persisted after returning soil to its previous moisture status. As a result, we found that drought had a strong legacy effect on bacterial community function, inducing an enhanced growth rate following subsequent drought. Abrupt transitions are widely documented in aquatic and terrestrial plant communities in response to human-induced perturbations. Our findings demonstrate that such transitions also occur in soil microbial communities in response to high intensity pulse perturbations, with potentially deleterious consequences for soil health.

A review of recent developments on drought characterization, propagation, and influential factors

Droughts have impacted human society throughout its history. However, the occurrence of severe drought events in the last century and the concerns on the potential effects of climate change have prompted remarkable advances in drought conceptualization and modeling in recent years. This review intends to present the state-of-the-art on drought characterization and propagation, as well as providing insights on how climate dynamics and anthropogenic activities might affect this phenomenon. For this purpose, we first address the distinct concepts of droughts and their relationships. Next, we present two frequently utilized methods based on the run theory for drought characterization and explain the development and recovery stages of droughts. Then, we discuss potential drivers for drought occurrence and propagation, with focus on meteorological factors, catchments' physical characteristics and human activities. Later, we describe how droughts can affect several parameters of water quality. This review also addressed flash droughts, encompassing their definitions, commonly used indices, and potential drivers. Finally, we briefly address the roles of climate change and long-term persistence on future drought scenarios. This review may be useful for researchers and stakeholders for attaining a broader understanding on drought dynamics and impacts.

Building the resilience of smallholder farmers to climate variability: Using climate-smart agriculture in Bono East Region, Ghana

The concept of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) emerges from a requirement to come up with advanced solutions towards the intricate and combined objectives of enhancing crop yields, ameliorating resilience, and encouraging a low-emissions agricultural sector. This study examines how smallholder farmers are building their resilience to climate variability using CSA practices in the Bono East Region, Ghana. Specifically, the study sought to: (i) assess the trends of temperature and rainfall for the period 2011 to 2021; (ii) identify and rank CSA practices used by the smallholder farmers for resilience building in agricultural systems; and; (iii) determine the barriers militating against smallholder farmers' implementation of the prioritized CSA practices. Standardized rainfall and temperature anomalies integrated with Sen's slope were used to determine the temperature and rainfall trends. One hundred and fifty random household surveys in five selected communities (Benkai, Fiaso, Traa, Awurano, and Bomini) accompanied by five key informant interviews were used to collect field data. The CSA practices identified by the farmers and the barriers opposing the implementation of these practices were ranked using the Relative Importance Index (RII) and Weighted Average Index (WAI) respectively. Results showed that rainfall was inconsistent and temperature rose from 2011 to 2021 in the study area. Results also revealed that the key CSA practices implemented by the farmers were appropriate fertilizer application (RII = 0.758), mixed farming (RII = 0.735), and crop diversification (RII = 0.717). However, in the implementation of these CSA practices, the farmers were confronted with key barriers including increased occurrences of diseases and pests (WAI = 1.173), restricted access to agricultural technologies (WAI = 1.100), and excessive price of improved crop varieties (WAI = 1.067). The study concludes that the resilience of smallholder farmers in Ghana can be built through the effective implementation of the aforementioned CSA practices.

Fading regulation of diurnal temperature ranges on drought-induced growth loss for drought-tolerant tree species

Warming-induced droughts caused tree growth loss across the globe, leading to substantial carbon loss to the atmosphere. Drought-induced growth loss, however, can be regulated by changes in diurnal temperature ranges. Here, we investigated long term radial growth responses of 23 widespread distributed tree species from 2327 sites over the world and found that species' drought tolerances were significantly and positively correlated with diurnal temperature range-growth loss relationships for the period 1901-1940. Since 1940, this relationship has continued to fade, likely due to asymmetric day and night warming trends and the species' ability to deal with them. The alleviation of reduced diurnal temperature ranges on drought-induced growth loss was mainly found for drought resistant tree species. Overall, our results highlight the need to carefully consider diurnal temperature ranges and species-specific responses to daytime and nighttime warming to explore tree growth responses to current and future warmer and drier climates.

Unveiling the biosynthesis, mechanisms, and impacts of miRNAs in drought stress resilience in plants

Drought stress is one of the most serious threats to sustainable agriculture and is predicted to be further intensified in the coming decades. Therefore, understanding the mechanism of drought stress tolerance and the development of drought-resilient crops are the major goals at present. In recent years, noncoding microRNAs (miRNAs) have emerged as key regulators of gene expressions under drought stress conditions and are turning out to be the potential candidates that can be targeted to develop drought-resilient crops in the future. miRNAs are known to target and decrease the expression of various genes to govern the drought stress response in plants. In addition, emerging evidence also suggests a regulatory role of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) in the regulation of miRNAs and the expression of their target genes by a process referred as miRNA sponging. In this review, we present the regulatory roles of miRNAs in the modulation of drought-responsive genes along with discussing their biosynthesis and action mechanisms. Additionally, the interactive roles of miRNAs with phytohormone signaling components have also been highlighted to present the global view of miRNA functioning under drought-stress conditions.

More than just an insect killer: The non-insecticidal activities of Bacillus thuringiensis with biotechnological potential

Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is known for the biological control of important insect pests, but scientific advances have revealed several interesting characteristics, in addition to this classical function as a bioinsecticide. To investigate the current knowledge about these non-insecticidal activities, a systematic research on primary data in the scientific literature was conducted on alternative functions of Bt with biotechnological potential. Out of a total of 140 articles selected, 15 non-insecticidal Bt activities were found. Publications related to this topic are available since 1971, and different metadata were reported, such as biomolecules and genes involved in Bt performances in non-insecticidal bioactivities. A total of 11 Bt activities with different effect measures (response variables) were identified, with an average of 48 distinct Bt strains evaluated per activity. Approximately 81.2% of all identified experiments/tests deal with the direct effects of Bt on target cells/organisms, with 36.3% of the strains within these studies tested for antibacterial action; of all microbial targets tested, 92.8% are bacteria, which led to 75.2% of the experimental conditions for all direct activities being performed in vitro. Regarding indirect Bt activities, 67.6% of these studies reported tritrophic Bt-plant-pathogen interactions. Bioremediation also appears as a relevant Bt activity being investigated in-depth. Alternative Bt activities offer innovative ways of developing biotechnology for different areas of anthropic interest; hence, we also focus on the possibility of finding multifunctional strains of Bt, as this may be advantageous from a bioeconomic point of view. Our findings are discussed in terms of research trends, aspects, details and depth of the current knowledge on alternative non-insecticidal Bt traits. We also discuss the potential application of this science for useful technological developments, aiming at solving issues related to human health, sustainable agriculture and environmental preservation/restoration.

Dynamic changes in permafrost distribution over China and their potential influencing factors under climate warming

As a major component of the cryosphere, permafrost plays important roles in the climate system and land surface processes of the Earth. Owing to the rapidly warming climate, permafrost over the globe has degraded in recent decades. However, quantifying the distribution and temporal changes in permafrost is challenging. In this study, we modified the widely used surface frost number model by considering the spatial distribution of soil hydrothermal properties and then revisited the spatiotemporal patterns of permafrost distribution and its changes during the past decades (1961-2017) in China. We found that the modified surface frost number model performs well in simulating permafrost extent in China, with the overall accuracy and kappa coefficients being 0.92 and 0.78 in the calibration (1980s) and 0.94 and 0.77 in the validation period (2000s). Based on the modified model, we also found that permafrost extent in China demonstrated a significant decreasing trend over the past decades, especially on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), with a trend of -1.15 × 10⁴ km²/yr (P < 0.01). Moreover, there is a significant relationship between ground surface temperature and permafrost distribution area, with the R² being 0.41, 0.42, and 0.77 in NE and NW China and on the QTP. The sensitivity of permafrost extent to ground surface temperature in NE China, NW China, and the QTP, respectively, was -8.56 × 10⁴, -1.97 × 10⁴, and -34.60 × 10⁴ km²/°C, respectively. Permafrost degradation has accelerated since the late 1980s, possibly due to increased climate warming. This study is of great significance for improving permafrost distribution simulation at large spatial scales (trans-regional) and for offering vital information for adapting to climate change in cold regions.

Modeling, challenges, and strategies for understanding impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods) on water quality in Asia: A review

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are among the most expected and recognized consequences of climate change. Prediction of water quality parameters becomes more challenging with these extremes since water quality is strongly related to hydro-meteorological conditions and is particularly sensitive to climate change. The evidence linking the influence of hydro-meteorological factors on water quality provides insights into future climatic extremes. Despite recent breakthroughs in water quality modeling and evaluations of climate change's impact on water quality, climate extreme informed water quality modeling methodologies remain restricted. This review aims to summarize the causal mechanisms across climate extremes considering water quality parameters and Asian water quality modeling methods associated with climate extremes, such as floods and droughts. In this review, we (1) identify current scientific approaches to water quality modeling and prediction in the context of flood and drought assessment, (2) discuss the challenges and impediments, and (3) propose potential solutions to these challenges to improve understanding of the impact of climate extremes on water quality and mitigate their negative impacts. This study emphasizes that one crucial step toward enhancing our aquatic ecosystems is by comprehending the connections between climate extreme events and water quality through collective efforts. The connections between the climate indices and water quality indicators were demonstrated to better understand the link between climate extremes and water quality for a selected watershed basin.

Integrated strength of osmotic potential and phosphorus to achieve grain yield of rice under water deficit by arbuscular mycorrhiza fungi

Arbuscular mycorrhizal ecosystem provides sustainability to plant integrity under drought situations. However, host plants that survive in drought frequently lose yield. The potential of Funneliformis mosseae (F), Claroideoglomus etunicatum (C), and Acaulospora fovaeta (A) was assessed to evaluate in indica rice cv. Leum Pua during booting stage under 21-day water withholding. The effects of three inoculation types; (i) F, (ii) F + C (FC), and (iii) F + C + A (FCA), on physiological, biochemical, and yield traits were investigated. The three types showed an induced total chlorophyll content in the host as compared to uninoculated plants. Total soluble sugars and free proline were less regulated by FC and FCA inoculated plants than by F inoculated plants under water deficit conditions. However, the FC and FCA inoculations increased phosphorus content, particularly in the shoots of water-stressed plants. In the three inoculations, the FCA dramatically improved plant osmotic potential adaptability under water deficit stress. Furthermore, even when exposed to the water deficit condition, panicle weight, grain number, and grain maturity were maintained in FCA inoculated plants. According to the findings, the increased osmotic potential and phosphorus content of the FCA-inoculated rice plant provide a protection sign against drought stress and will benefit food security in the future.

Physiological response and photosynthetic recovery to an extreme drought: Evidence from plants in a dry-hot valley savanna of Southwest China

The frequency of extreme drought events has been rising worldwide, but due to its unpredictability, how plants will respond remains poorly understood. Here, we aimed to characterize how the hydraulics and photosynthesis of savanna plants respond to extreme drought, and tested whether they can subsequently recover photosynthesis after drought. There was an extreme drought in 2019 in Southwest (SW) China. We investigated photosynthetic gas exchange, leaf-, stem-, and whole-shoot hydraulic conductance of 18 plant species with diverse leaf habits (deciduous, semi-deciduous and evergreen) and growth forms (tree and shrub) from a dry-hot valley savanna in SW China for three rainy seasons from 2019 to 2021. We also compared photosynthetic gas exchange to those of a regular year (2014). We found that leaf stomatal and hydraulic conductance and maximum photosynthetic rate were significantly lower during the drought in 2019 than in the wetter years. In 2019, all studied plants maintained stomatal conductance at their minimum level observed, which could be related to high vapor pressure deficits (VPD, >2 kPa). However, no significant difference in stem and shoot hydraulic conductance was detected across years. The reductions in leaf hydraulic conductance and stomatal regulation under extreme drought might help keep the stem hydraulic function. Stomatal conductance and photosynthesis after drought (2020 and 2021) showed comparable or even higher values compared to that of 2014, suggesting high recovery of photosynthetic gas exchange. In addition, the response of hydraulic and photosynthetic traits to extreme drought was convergent across leaf habits and growth forms. Our results will help better understand the physiological mechanism underlying the response of savanna ecosystems to climate change.

Potential Role of Biochar and Silicon in Improving Physio-Biochemical and Yield Characteristics of Borage Plants under Different Irrigation Regimes

Silicon (Si) and biochar (Bc) are key signaling conditioners that improve plant metabolic processes and promote drought tolerance. However, the specific role of their integrative application under water restrictions on economical plants is not yet well understood. Two field experiments throughout 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 were conducted to examine the physio-biochemical modifications and yield attributes of borage plants mediated by Bc (9.52 tons ha^-1) and/or Si (300 mg L^-1) under different irrigation regimes (100, 75, and 50% of crop evapotranspiration). Catalase (CAT) and peroxidase (POD) activity; relative water content, water, and osmotic potential; leaf area per plant and yield attributes; and chlorophyll (Chl) content, Chl_a/chlorophyllide_a (Chlid_a), and Chl_b/Chlid_b were considerably reduced within the drought condition. On the other hand, oxidative biomarkers, as well as organic and antioxidant solutes, were increased under drought, associated with membrane dysfunction, superoxide dismutase (SOD) activation, and osmotic adjustment (OA) capacity as well as a hyperaccumulation of porphyrin intermediates. Supplementation of Bc and Si lessens the detrimental impacts of drought on several plant metabolic processes associated with increasing leaf area and yield attributes. Their application under normal or drought conditions significantly elicited the accumulation of organic and antioxidant solutes as well as the activation of antioxidant enzymes, followed by lessening the formation of free radical oxygen and mitigating oxidative injuries. Moreover, their application maintained water status and OA capacity. Si and/or Bc treatment reduced protoporphyrin, magnesium-protoporphyrin, and protochlorophyllide while increasing Chl_a and Chl_b assimilation and boosting the ratio of Chl_a/Chlid_a and Chl_b/Chlid_b, resulting in a rise in leaf area per plant and yield components following these modifications. These findings highlight the significance of Si and/or Bc as (a) stress-signaling molecule(s) in regulating defensive systems in drought-affected borage plants by boosting antioxidant aptitude, regulating water status, and accelerating chlorophyll assimilation, thus leading to increasing leaf area and productivity.

Sources and uncertainties of future global drought risk with ISIMIP2b climate scenarios and socioeconomic indicators

The severity of potential drought impacts is influenced not only by physical characteristics, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature but also by local socioeconomic conditions that influence a region's exposure and vulnerability. This study aims to demonstrate projected future global drought risk, which is quantified based on indicators representing three risk components, namely, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Drought hazard is evaluated using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index. Drought exposure considers population and agricultural land use, and drought vulnerability accounts for gross domestic product, total water storage, and water consumption. This global-scale study was conducted for the historical and future periods of 1975-2005 and 2070-2099, respectively, and employed three combined scenarios consisting of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with datasets from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). To evaluate the proposed approach, the results obtained for the historical period were compared with drought records. The projections suggest that in addition to increasing drought hazards caused by climate change, populous regions, or areas heavily dependent on agriculture are at a higher risk than other regions because of high water consumption levels. The contributions analysis indicates that agricultural land use is the largest contributor to drought risk, except for Africa, where the population makes the largest contribution. Model uncertainty of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Hydrological Models (HMs) is dominant compared to the RCP and SSP scenarios, with uncertainty from the GCMs the most dominant. This study provides possible depictions and their uncertainties of future drought risks and can assist decision-makers in developing better adaptation and mitigation strategies for climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic changes.

A Global Multiscale SPEI Dataset under an Ensemble Approach

A new multiscale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) dataset is provided for a reference period (1960–1999) and two future time horizons (2040–2079) and (2060–2099). The historical forcing is based on combined climate observations and reanalysis (WATer and global CHange Forcing Dataset), and the future projections are fed by the Fast Track experiment of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 and by an additional Earth system model (CMCC-CESM) forced by RCP 8.5. To calculate the potential evapotranspiration (PET) input to the SPEI, the Hargreaves–Samani and Thornthwaite equations were adopted. This ensemble considers uncertainty due to different climate models, development pathways, and input formulations. The SPEI is provided for accumulation periods of potential moisture deficit from 1 to 18 months starting in each month of the year, with a focus on the within-period variability, excluding long-term warming effects on PET. In addition to supporting drought analyses, this dataset is also useful for assessing wetter-than-normal conditions spanning one or more months. The SPEI was calculated using the SPEIbase package.

Drought alleviation efficacy of a galactose rich polysaccharide isolated from endophytic Mucor sp. HELF2: A case study on rice plant

Endophytes play a vital role in plant growth under biotic and abiotic stress conditions. In the present investigation, a Galactose-Rich Heteropolysaccharide (GRH) with a molecular weight of 2.98 × 10⁵ Da was isolated from endophytic Mucor sp. HELF2, a symbiont of the East Indian screw tree Helicteres isora. OVAT (One Variable at A Time) experiment coupled with RSM (Response Surface Methodology) study exhibited 1.5-fold enhanced GRH production (20.10 g L^-1) in supplemented potato dextrose broth at a pH of 7.05 after 7.5 days of fermentation in 26°C. GRH has alleviated drought stress (polyethylene glycol induced) in rice seedlings (Oryza sativa ssp. indica MTU 7093 swarna) by improving its physicochemical parameters. It has been revealed that spray with a 50-ppm dosage of GRH exhibited an improvement of 1.58, 2.38, 3, and 4 times in relative water contents and fresh weight of the tissues, root length, and shoot length of the rice seedlings, respectively "in comparison to the control". Moreover, the soluble sugars, prolines, and chlorophyll contents of the treated rice seedlings were increased upto 3.5 (0.7 ± 0.05 mg/g fresh weight), 3.89 (0.57 ± 0.03 mg/g fresh weight), and 2.32 (1,119 ± 70.8 μg/gm of fresh weight) fold respectively, whereas malondialdehyde contents decreased up to 6 times. The enzymatic antioxidant parameters like peroxidase and superoxide dismutase and catalase activity of the 50 ppm GRH treated seedlings were found to be elevated 1.8 (720 ± 53 unit/gm/min fresh weight), 1.34 (75.34 ± 4.8 unit/gm/min fresh weight), and up to 3 (100 ppm treatment for catalase - 54.78 ± 2.91 unit/gm/min fresh weight) fold, respectively. In this context, the present outcomes contribute to the development of novel strategies to ameliorate drought stress and could fortify the agro-economy of India.

The role of species interactions for forest resilience to drought

Increasing durations and frequencies of droughts under climate change endanger the sustainable functioning of forests worldwide. The admixture of species with complementary resource use may increase the resilience of forests towards drought; however, little is known about modifications of species interactions (i.e. facilitation and competition) by increasing drought severity in mixed forests. In particular, knowledge on the regulation of central ecohydrological processes, such as tree water fluxes, is lacking. Therefore, we conducted a literature review to assess the impact of species interactions on tree resilience (resistance + recovery) under increasing drought severity. The classification of studies into three drought classes suggested that beneficial species interactions, i.e. through improved water relations, were prevalent under mild droughts. However, with increasing drought, negative effects, such as interspecific competition, occurred. These negative interactions were prominent under extreme droughts, where even trees with complementary resource-use strategies competed for water resources. Fewer data are available on recovery of water fluxes. The limited evidence supported the patterns observed for drought resistance, with facilitation and complementarity of species in mixtures enhancing tree recovery after moderate droughts. However, after extreme droughts, competition effects and reduced recovery for some species were observed, which can strongly compromise tree resilience. While we acknowledge the importance of mixed forests for biodiversity, ecosystem services or pest resistance, we caution that beneficial species interactions may shift under extreme droughts. Thus, there is an urgent need to investigate species interaction effects on resilience in more depth to adapt forest trees to increasing drought stress.

Reduced diurnal temperature range mitigates drought impacts on larch tree growth in North China

Forests are facing climate changes such as warmer temperatures, accelerated snowmelt, increased drought, as well as changing diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) and cloud cover regimes. How tree growth is influenced by the changes in daily to monthly temperatures and its associations with droughts has been extensively investigated, however, few studies have focused on how changes in sub-daily temperatures i.e., DTR, influence tree growth during drought events. Here, we used a network of Larix principis-rupprechtii tree-ring data from 1989 to 2018, covering most of the distribution of planted larch across North China, to investigate how DTR, cloud cover and their interactions influence the relationship between drought stress and tree growth. DTR showed a negative correlation with larch growth in 95 % of sites (r_mean = -0.30, significant in 42 % of sites). Cloud cover was positively correlated with growth in 87 % of sites (r_mean = 0.13, significant in 5 % of sites). Enhanced tree growth was found at lower DTR in the absence of severe drought. Our findings highlight that in the absence of severe droughts, reduced DTR benefits tree growth, while increased cloud cover tended to benefit tree growth only during severe drought periods. Given how DTR influences drought impacts on tree growth, net tree growth was found to be larger in regions with smaller DTR.

Multi-sensor geodetic observations for drought characterization in the Northeast Atlantic Eastern Hydrographic Region, Brazil

The lowest water availability area in Brazil is the Northeast Atlantic Eastern Hydrographic Region (NAERH). It plays a fundamental role in the lives of 24.1 million inhabitants spread throughout 874 cities. Drought is recurrent in this semiarid climate, affecting agriculture, biodiversity, the ecosystem and other environmental spheres. Therefore, the goal of this research is to combine different drought indexes to quantify drought intensity and duration in the NAERH. Besides the traditionally used rainfall data, multi-temporal data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Global Positioning System (GPS) were also used. The indexes are the Combined Climatic Deviation Index (CCDI), Drought Severity Index (DSI) and Vertical Crustal Deformation Index (DI_VCD). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used for validation of the other indexes through the Spearman rank correlation, which retrieved ρ = 0.76 and 0.68 between the CCDI and the SPI-03/06. On the other hand, DSI correlated with the SPI-24/36 with ρ = 0.67/0.75. Despite limitations, the DI_VCD accurately detected the frequencies of hydrological droughts. All indexes identified the last severe drought from 2012 to 2018, and its persistence throughout 2019 and 2020. The combined indexes approach reveals nuances of the indexes, improving the baseline to thoroughly understand drought at different temporal scales.

Trading water for carbon in the future: Effects of elevated CO2 and warming on leaf hydraulic traits in a semiarid grassland

The effects of climate change on plants and ecosystems are mediated by plant hydraulic traits, including interspecific and intraspecific variability of trait phenotypes. Yet, integrative and realistic studies of hydraulic traits and climate change are rare. In a semiarid grassland, we assessed the response of several plant hydraulic traits to elevated CO₂ (+200 ppm) and warming (+1.5 to 3°C; day to night). For leaves of five dominant species (three graminoids and two forbs), and in replicated plots exposed to 7 years of elevated CO₂ , warming, or ambient climate, we measured: stomatal density and size, xylem vessel size, turgor loss point, and water potential (pre-dawn). Interspecific differences in hydraulic traits were larger than intraspecific shifts induced by elevated CO₂ and/or warming. Effects of elevated CO₂ were greater than effects of warming, and interactions between treatments were weak or not detected. The forbs showed little phenotypic plasticity. The graminoids had leaf water potentials and turgor loss points that were 10% to 50% less negative under elevated CO₂ ; thus, climate change might cause these species to adjust their drought resistance strategy away from tolerance and toward avoidance. The C4 grass also reduced allocation of leaf area to stomata under elevated CO₂ , which helps explain observations of higher soil moisture. The shifts in hydraulic traits under elevated CO₂ were not, however, simply due to higher soil moisture. Integration of our results with others' indicates that common species in this grassland are more likely to adjust stomatal aperture in response to near-term climate change, rather than anatomical traits; this contrasts with apparent effects of changing CO₂ on plant anatomy over evolutionary time. Future studies should assess how plant responses to drought may be constrained by the apparent shift from tolerance (via low turgor loss point) to avoidance (via stomatal regulation and/or access to deeper soil moisture).

Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors

Drought is a costly natural hazard with far-reaching impacts on agriculture, ecosystem, water supply, and socio-economy. While propagating through the water cycle, drought evolves into different types and affects the natural system and human society. Despite much progress made in recent decades, a synthesis of the characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors of drought propagation is still lacking. We bridge this gap by reviewing the recent progress of drought propagation and discussing challenges and future directions. We first introduce drought propagation characteristics (e.g., response time scale, lag time), followed by different approaches, including statistical analysis and hydrological modeling. The recent progress in the propagation from meteorological drought to different types of drought (agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and ecological drought) is then synthesized, including the basic process, commonly used indicators, data sources, and main findings of drought propagation characteristics. Different controlling factors of drought propagations, including climate (e.g., aridity, seasonality, and anomalies of meteorological variables), catchment properties (e.g., slope, elevation, land cover, aquifer, baseflow), and human activities (e.g., reservoir operation and water diversion, irrigation, and groundwater abstraction), are then summarized. Challenges in drought propagation include the discrepancy in drought indicators (and approaches) and difficulty in characterizing the full propagation process and isolating influencing factors. Future analysis of drought propagation should shift from single indicators to multiple indicators, from individual drivers to combined drivers, from uni-directional analysis to feedbacks, from hazards to impacts, and from stationary to nonstationary assumptions. This review is expected to be useful for drought prediction and management across different regions under global warming.

Biogeographical survey of soil microbiomes across sub-Saharan Africa: structure, drivers, and predicted climate-driven changes

BACKGROUND

Top-soil microbiomes make a vital contribution to the Earth's ecology and harbor an extraordinarily high biodiversity. They are also key players in many ecosystem services, particularly in arid regions of the globe such as the African continent. While several recent studies have documented patterns in global soil microbial ecology, these are largely biased towards widely studied regions and rely on models to interpolate the microbial diversity of other regions where there is low data coverage. This is the case for sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of regional microbial studies is very low in comparison to other continents.

RESULTS

The aim of this study was to conduct an extensive biogeographical survey of sub-Saharan Africa's top-soil microbiomes, with a specific focus on investigating the environmental drivers of microbial ecology across the region. In this study, we sampled 810 sample sites across 9 sub-Saharan African countries and used taxonomic barcoding to profile the microbial ecology of these regions. Our results showed that the sub-Saharan nations included in the study harbor qualitatively distinguishable soil microbiomes. In addition, using soil chemistry and climatic data extracted from the same sites, we demonstrated that the top-soil microbiome is shaped by a broad range of environmental factors, most notably pH, precipitation, and temperature. Through the use of structural equation modeling, we also developed a model to predict how soil microbial biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa might be affected by future climate change scenarios. This model predicted that the soil microbial biodiversity of countries such as Kenya will be negatively affected by increased temperatures and decreased precipitation, while the fungal biodiversity of Benin will benefit from the increase in annual precipitation.

CONCLUSION

This study represents the most extensive biogeographical survey of sub-Saharan top-soil microbiomes to date. Importantly, this study has allowed us to identify countries in sub-Saharan Africa that might be particularly vulnerable to losses in soil microbial ecology and productivity due to climate change. Considering the reliance of many economies in the region on rain-fed agriculture, this study provides crucial information to support conservation efforts in the countries that will be most heavily impacted by climate change. Video Abstract.

Molecular Aspects of MicroRNAs and Phytohormonal Signaling in Response to Drought Stress: A Review

Phytohormones play an essential role in plant growth and development in response to environmental stresses. However, plant hormones require a complex signaling network combined with other signaling pathways to perform their proper functions. Thus, multiple phytohormonal signaling pathways are a prerequisite for understanding plant defense mechanism against stressful conditions. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are master regulators of eukaryotic gene expression and are also influenced by a wide range of plant development events by suppressing their target genes. In recent decades, the mechanisms of phytohormone biosynthesis, signaling, pathways of miRNA biosynthesis and regulation were profoundly characterized. Recent findings have shown that miRNAs and plant hormones are integrated with the regulation of environmental stress. miRNAs target several components of phytohormone pathways, and plant hormones also regulate the expression of miRNAs or their target genes inversely. In this article, recent developments related to molecular linkages between miRNAs and phytohormones were reviewed, focusing on drought stress.

Plant Growth-Promoting Rhizobacteria Eliminate the Effect of Drought Stress in Plants: A Review

Plants evolve diverse mechanisms to eliminate the drastic effect of biotic and abiotic stresses. Drought is the most hazardous abiotic stress causing huge losses to crop yield worldwide. Osmotic stress decreases relative water and chlorophyll content and increases the accumulation of osmolytes, epicuticular wax content, antioxidant enzymatic activities, reactive oxygen species, secondary metabolites, membrane lipid peroxidation, and abscisic acid. Plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) eliminate the effect of drought stress by altering root morphology, regulating the stress-responsive genes, producing phytohormones, osmolytes, siderophores, volatile organic compounds, and exopolysaccharides, and improving the 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate deaminase activities. The use of PGPR is an alternative approach to traditional breeding and biotechnology for enhancing crop productivity. Hence, that can promote drought tolerance in important agricultural crops and could be used to minimize crop losses under limited water conditions. This review deals with recent progress on the use of PGPR to eliminate the harmful effects of drought stress in traditional agriculture crops.

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Drying Trends on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on Geomorphological Division

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is a sensor of global climate change and regional human activities, and drought monitoring will help to achieve its ecological protection and sustainable development. In order to effectively control the geospatial scale effect, we divided the study area into eight geomorphological sub-regions, and calculated the Temperature-Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI) of each geomorphological sub-region based on MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, and synthesized the TVDI of the whole region. We employed partial and multiple correlation analyses to identify the relationship between TVDI and temperature and precipitation. The random forest model was further used to study the driving mechanism of TVDI in each geomorphological division. The results of the study were as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2019, the QTP showed a drought trend, with the most significant drought trend in the central region. The spatial pattern of TVDI changes of QTP was consistent with the gradient changes of precipitation and temperature, both showing a gradual trend from southeast to northwest. (2) There was a risk of drought in the four seasons of the QTP, and the seasonal variation of TVDI was significant, which was characterized by being relatively dry in spring and summer and relatively humid in autumn and winter. (3) Drought in the QTP was mainly driven by natural factors, supplemented by human factors. The driving effect of temperature and precipitation factors on TVDI was stable and significant, which mainly determined the spatial distribution and variation of TVDI of the QTP. Geomorphological factors led to regional intensification and local differentiation effects of drought, especially in high mountains, flat slopes, sunny slopes and other places, which had a more significant impact on TVDI. Human activities had local point-like and linear impacts, and grass-land and cultivated land that were closely related to the relatively high impacts on TVDI of human grazing and farming activities. In view of the spatial-temporal patterns of change in TVDI in the study area, it is important to strengthen the monitoring and early warning of changes in natural factors, optimize the spatial distribution of human activities, and scientifically promote ecological protection and restoration.

The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

Global assessment of spatiotemporal variability of wet, normal and dry conditions using multiscale entropy-based approach

In recent decades, human-induced climate change has caused a worldwide increase in the frequency/intensity/duration of extreme events, resulting in enormous disruptions to life and property. Hence, a comprehensive understanding of global-scale spatiotemporal trends and variability of extreme events at different intensity levels (e.g., moderate/severe/extreme) and durations (e.g., short-term/long-term) of normal, dry and wet conditions is essential in predicting/forecasting/mitigating future extreme events. This article analyses these aspects using estimates of a non-stationary standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index corresponding to different accumulation periods for 0.5° resolution CRU grids at globe-scale. Results are analyzed with respect to changes in land-use/landcover and geographic/location indicators (latitude, longitude, elevation) at different time scales (decadal/annual/seasonal/monthly) for each continent. The analysis showed an (i) increasing trend in the frequency/count of both dry and wet conditions and variability of dry conditions, and (ii) contrasting (decreasing) trend in the variability of wet conditions, possibly due to climate change-induced variations in atmospheric circulations. Globally, the highest variability in the wet and dry conditions is found during the Northern hemisphere's winter season. The decadal-scale analysis showed that change in variability in dry and wet conditions has been predominant since the 1930s and 1950s, respectively and is found to be increasing in recent decades.

Divergent Tree Growth and the Response to Climate Warming and Humidification in the Tianshan Mountains, China

In recent decades, the global climate has changed significantly. The climate in Northwest China became warm-wet, especially in the Tianshan Mountains. In order to explore the response of tree growth to recent climate change, the two dominant trees species, Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey. and Larix sibirica Ledeb., were studied with the dendrochronological method in the western Tianshan Mountains (WT) and the eastern Tianshan Mountains (ET). Our results showed that: (1) The tree growth of four sample sites in the WT significantly increased in recent decades, while the trees in the three sample sites in the ET significantly decreased. (2) In the WT, except for the Manas site, the tree-ring chronologies of the other three sites were significantly positively correlated with the mean annual minimum temperature. Tree-ring chronologies in the WT, except for Bangfanggou site, were significantly positively correlated with annual precipitation. In the ET, only the tree chronology of L. sibirica in the Balikun site was significantly negatively correlated with the annual temperatures, including the mean minimum, mean and mean maximum temperature. (3) The proportion of trees with a significant upward growth trend at each site decreased from west to east, and the proportion of trees with a significant downward growth trend at each site increased from west to east along the whole Tianshan Mountains. (4) The correlation of tree-ring chronologies with the annual temperature and annual precipitation was not stable during the study period. Warm-humidification promoted the growth of trees in the WT but inhibited tree growth in the ET, which may be exacerbated drought stress in the ET where the increase in precipitation was not enough to offset the increased evapotranspiration potential caused by warming.

Projected urban exposure to extreme precipitation over South Asia

Urbanization is one of the pivotal aspects of socioeconomic advancement which is critically vulnerable to climatic extremes. Extreme precipitation and urbanization are largely interlinked. Estimating the extreme precipitation-induced urban area exposure is the fundamental aspect of urban risk assessment for precipitation-related floods. In this study, future urban area exposure to extreme precipitation and associated influential factors are investigated over South Asia under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 3.0 °C, and 4.0 °C global warming thresholds. In this regard, we used newly released 20 up-to-date climate models outputs, and five Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) based urban land-use products under four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) from the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Extreme precipitation is characterized by adopting 20-, 50-, and 100-year return periods of annual maximum daily precipitation. Results reveal a massive urban area expansion over South Asia which is the utmost by 186.4% under SSP3-7.0 than the reference period (1995-2014). The variations in projected urban areas mainly occur in Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region among scenarios. In relative terms, extreme precipitation frequency and associated urban area exposure are prospective to increase with continued global warming. The exposed urban area varies 4.5- to 7.4-fold higher under different warming thresholds than the reference period. The leading increase is estimated (7.4-fold) under 4.0 °C. Notably, for global warming targets set out by the Paris Agreement (1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C), exposed urban area is intended to be 10.2% higher under 2.0 °C than 1.5 °C. Spatially, the exposed urban area will be dominant in the southeast region relative to the reference period. Importantly, the interaction effect (simultaneous change in climate-urban land) is the principal contributor to the changes in urban area exposure to extreme precipitation over South Asia. However, this study's findings strongly support the accomplishment of the Paris Agreement target and provide a scientific basis for formulating urban land-use policy interventions.

Evaluating tropical drought risk by combining open access gridded vulnerability and hazard data products

Droughts are causing severe damages to tropical countries worldwide. Although water abundant, their resilience to water shortages during dry periods is often low. As there is little knowledge about tropical drought characteristics, reliable methodologies to evaluate drought risk in data scarce tropical regions are needed. We combined drought hazard and vulnerability related data to assess drought risk in four rural tropical study regions, the Muriaé basin, Southeast Brazil, the Tempisque-Bebedero basin in Costa Rica, the upper part of the Magdalena basin, Colombia and the Srepok, shared by Cambodia and Vietnam. Drought hazard was analyzed using the variables daily river discharge, precipitation and vegetation condition. Drought vulnerability was assessed based on regionally available socioeconomic data. Besides illustrating the relative severity of each indicator value, we developed drought risk maps combining hazard and vulnerability for each grid-cell. While for the Muriaé, our results identified the downstream area as being exposed to severe drought risk, the Tempisque showed highest risk along the major streams and related irrigation systems. Risk hotspots in the Upper Magdalena were found in the central valley and the dryer Southeast and in the Srepok in the agricultural areas of Vietnam and downstream Cambodia. Local scientists and stakeholders have validated our results and we believe that our drought risk assessment methodology for data scarce and rural tropical regions offers a holistic, science based and innovative framework to generate relevant drought related information. Being applied to other tropical catchments, the approaches described in this article will enable the selection of data sets, indices and their classification - depending on basin size, spatial resolution and seasonality. At its current stage, the outcomes of this study provide relevant information for regional planners and water managers dealing with the control of future drought disasters in tropical regions.

Environmental Healthcare Assessment via Daily-Scale Drought Monitoring

Precipitation is the most important factor in determining the drought condition. In addition, the drought condition is also affected by the hydrological process such as evaporation, leakage, runoff, and groundwater. Based on a simple physical model of water income and recession, the effective precipitation index (WAP) can reflect the drought condition in a region on a short time scale. Using a water decline equation to describe the process of preliminary soil moisture, evaporation, runoff, and groundwater, the WAP can be used for the quantitative study of drought. This paper improves the calculation program of WAP with reference to the calculation model of the standardized index. The improved WAP (called SWAP) effectively solves the problem of seasonality in drought. The results showed that SWAP has the ability to capture the drought processes of occurrence, development, peak, and regression in a short time scale, and the SWAP can be used as an effective tool for drought identification, assessment, and prevention.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Drought and Humidity in China Based on the Pedj Drought Index (PDI)

Drought is one of the most devastating natural disasters, especially in China. In drought assessment, the PDI has high robustness, is easier to obtain than indices such as SPEI and PDSI, and is more advantageous in regions with sparse stations. The present study employs the annual PDI with the precipitation and temperature data from 830 meteorological stations to systematically study the interannual variation characteristics of drought and humidity in China during 1970–2019. The results showed the following: (1) 26.6% of the total statistics from meteorological stations showed significant (p < 0.05) increases in annual PDI values throughout China during 1970–2019. (2) Air temperature plays a more remarkable role than precipitation in assessing the drying trend with PDI throughout China. (3) About 71% of stations experienced more drought events (PDI > 1) than humidity events (PDI < −1), 14% of stations experienced more humidity events than drought events. (5) All stations experienced drought events (PDI > 1) with a frequency range from 6% to 32% and humidity events (PDI < −1) with a frequency range from 8% to 36%. Most of the stations experienced extreme drought events (PDI > 3) with a frequency range from 2% to 10%, while only 177 stations experienced extreme humidity events (PDI < −3) with a frequency range from 2% to 4%. (6) More than 67% of stations experienced drought conditions during both periods of 1972–1974 and 2000–2002 and even exceeded 80% in the three years 1972, 2000, and 2001. Both periods of 1976–1983 and 1985–1999 can be considered to be a humidity period throughout China. In conclusion, the PDI successfully expresses the interannual variation characteristics of drought and humidity events throughout China previously captured by other prominent, recommended drought indices.

A Review on Interpretable and Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Hydroclimatic Applications

This review focuses on the use of Interpretable Artificial Intelligence (IAI) and eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models for data imputations and numerical or categorical hydroclimatic predictions from nonlinearly combined multidimensional predictors. The AI models considered in this paper involve Extreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting, Categorical Boosting, Extremely Randomized Trees, and Random Forest. These AI models can transform into XAI models when they are coupled with the explanatory methods such as the Shapley additive explanations and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations. The review highlights that the IAI models are capable of unveiling the rationale behind the predictions while XAI models are capable of discovering new knowledge and justifying AI-based results, which are critical for enhanced accountability of AI-driven predictions. The review also elaborates the importance of domain knowledge and interventional IAI modeling, potential advantages and disadvantages of hybrid IAI and non-IAI predictive modeling, unequivocal importance of balanced data in categorical decisions, and the choice and performance of IAI versus physics-based modeling. The review concludes with a proposed XAI framework to enhance the interpretability and explainability of AI models for hydroclimatic applications.