The Influence of Control on Belief in Conspiracy Theories: Conceptual and Applied Extensions

A cross-country assessment of conspiracy beliefs, trust in institutions, and attitudes towards the Covid-19 vaccination

Conspiracy beliefs have spread during the Covid-19 pandemic. It is important to understand them because of their potential to undermine trust in societal institutions and willingness to get vaccined. In the present research (N = 538), we assessed the links between conspiracy beliefs, trust in institutions (e.g., government, WHO), and attitudes towards the Covid-19 vaccination across the USA, Brazil and the UK. A moderated mediation analysis revealed the crucial role of political leaders in linking conspiracy beliefs with vaccination attitudes. Trust in the president was positively associated with conspiracy beliefs in Brazil because of its conspiracist president at the time (Bolsonaro), which in turn was negatively associated with vaccination attitudes. In contrast, trust in political leaders at the time in the UK (Johnson) and the USA (Biden) was negatively associated with conspiracy beliefs. In conclusion, our findings contribute to understanding the underlying mechanisms that link conspiracy beliefs with trust and vaccination attitudes.

Fatalistic Beliefs, Cultural Beliefs and Socio-Instrumental Control Beliefs: What are the Links? Can We Speak of an Active Fatalism?

Taking into account beliefs and culture is essential in behaviour analysis in various areas of life and work. However, knowledge about the links between these beliefs is sparse and imprecise. This article analyses the links between fatalistic, cultural and socio-instrumental control beliefs, by a questionnaire on a sample of 515 Cameroonian partcipants including male (N = 290) and female (N = 225), workers from the public (N = 208), formal private (N = 265) and informal (N = 40) sectors. The questionnaire consisted of the fatalism scale designed by Kouabenan (1998), the Cameroonian cultural beliefs scale by Ngueutsa et al. (2021), and the socio-instrumental control beliefs scale derived from Spector (2004). Regression analyses showed that cultural beliefs partially mediated the link between fatalistic and socio-instrumental control beliefs. The results call into question the conceptualization of fatalistic beliefs, often seen as inducers of passivity. They suggest that cultural beliefs and practices may activate a 'non-inhibiting' form of fatalism that would justify the use of cultural entities to exercise indirect control over events. The concept of active fatalism is discussed.

'They are conspiring against us': How outgroup conspiracy theories stimulate environmental neglect in intergroup resource dilemmas

Natural resources are limited, and people often share these limited resources in groups, which creates an intergroup resource dilemma. To understand individuals' sustainable behaviours in intergroup resource dilemmas in the context of group interactions, the present research systematically investigates the effect of outgroup conspiracy theories on sustainable behaviours and preliminarily explores the internal mechanism underlying this effect. First, a survey study (Study 1) relying on real-world intergroup relations first confirmed the negative correlation between outgroup conspiracy beliefs and sustainable intentions in intergroup resource dilemmas. Then, an online experimental study that utilized the real situation of a region in China (Study 2) tested the causal relationship between exposure to an outgroup conspiracy theory and sustainable intentions, as well as showing the mediating role of intergroup threat perception underlying this relationship. Finally, a preregistered experimental laboratory study (Study 3) further verified the causal effect of exposure to an outgroup conspiracy theory on sustainable behaviours, again confirming the mediating role of intergroup threat perception. In general, our research demonstrates that exposure to an outgroup conspiracy theory stimulates individuals' environmental neglect and reduces their sustainable behaviours by increasing their perceptions of intergroup threat when faced with intergroup resource dilemmas.

Anti-establishment sentiments: realistic and symbolic threat appraisals predict populist attitudes and conspiracy mentality

Previous research has found that populist attitudes and conspiracy mentality - here summarised as anti-establishment attitudes - increase when people feel threatened. Two types of intergroup threat have been distinguished, namely realistic threats (pertaining to socio-economic resources, climate, or health), and symbolic threats (pertaining to cultural values). However, there is no agreement on which types of threat and corresponding appraisals would be most important in predicting anti-establishment attitudes. We hypothesise that it is the threat itself, irrespective of its cause, that predicts anti-establishment attitudes. In the current paper, we conducted new (multilevel) regression analyses on previously collected data from four high-powered studies with multiple time points (Study 1) or collected in multiple nations (Studies 2-4). All studies included a populist attitudes scale, a conspiracy mentality scale, and different types of threat and emotion measures, reflecting both realistic and symbolic threats. Across studies, both realistic and symbolic threats positively predicted anti-establishment attitudes. The results support an emotional appraisal approach to anti-establishment attitudes, which highlights the importance of anxiety and feeling threatened regardless of what type of event elicits the threat.

Conspiracy beliefs and perceptual inference in times of political uncertainty

Sociopolitical crises causing uncertainty have accumulated in recent years, providing fertile ground for the emergence of conspiracy ideations. Computational models constitute valuable tools for understanding the mechanisms at play in the formation and rigidification of these unshakeable beliefs. Here, the Circular Inference model was used to capture associations between changes in perceptual inference and the dynamics of conspiracy ideations in times of uncertainty. A bistable perception task and conspiracy belief assessment focused on major sociopolitical events were administered to large populations from three polarized countries. We show that when uncertainty peaks, an overweighting of sensory information is associated with conspiracy ideations. Progressively, this exploration strategy gives way to an exploitation strategy in which increased adherence to conspiracy theories is associated with the amplification of prior information. Overall, the Circular Inference model sheds new light on the possible mechanisms underlying the progressive strengthening of conspiracy theories when individuals face highly uncertain situations.

How does economic inequality shape conspiracy theories? Empirical evidence from China

Conspiracy theories tend to be prevalent, particularly in societies with high economic inequality. However, few studies have examined the relationship between economic inequality and belief in conspiracy theories. We propose that economic inequality leads people to believe conspiracy theories about economically advantaged groups (i.e., upwards conspiracy theories) and that moral evaluations of those groups mediate this relationship. Study 1 (N = 300) found support for these ideas in a survey among Chinese residents. Study 2 (N = 160) manipulated participants' perceptions of economic inequality in a virtual society. The manipulation shaped moral evaluations of economically advantaged groups, and conspiracy beliefs, in the predicted manner. In Study 3 (N = 191) and Study 4 (N = 210), we experimentally manipulated participants' perceptions of economic inequality in real Chinese society and replicated the results of Study 2. In addition, in Study 4, we find that economic inequality predicts belief in conspiracy theories about economically disadvantaged groups (i.e., downward conspiracy theories), which was mediated by anomie. We conclude that perceived economic inequality predicts conspiracy theories about economically advantaged groups and that moral evaluations account for this effect. Also, upward and downward conspiracy theory beliefs are associated with different psychological processes.

Conspiracy Theory as Individual and Group Behavior: Observations from the Flat Earth International Conference

Conspiratorial thinking has been with humanity for a long time but has recently grown as a source of societal concern and as a subject of research in the cognitive and social sciences. We propose a three-tiered framework for the study of conspiracy theories: (1) cognitive processes, (2) the individual, and (3) social processes and communities of knowledge. At the level of cognitive processes, we identify explanatory coherence and faulty belief updating as critical ideas. At the level of the community of knowledge, we explore how conspiracy communities facilitate false belief by promoting a contagious sense of understanding, and how community norms catalyze the biased assimilation of evidence. We review recent research on conspiracy theories and explain how conspiratorial thinking emerges from the interaction of individual and group processes. As a case study, we describe observations the first author made while attending the Flat Earth International Conference, a meeting of conspiracy theorists who believe the Earth is flat. Rather than treating conspiracy belief as pathological, we take the perspective that is an extreme outcome of common cognitive processes.

How perceived coercion polarizes unvaccinated people: The mediating role of conspiracy beliefs

During the COVID-19 pandemic, different policies were implemented to increase vaccination uptake. Meanwhile, conspiracy theories spread widely, and vaccinated versus unvaccinated people increasingly polarized against each other. This study examined the associations between perceived vaccination coercion, conspiracy beliefs and polarization. We tested the relationship of vaccination status with perceived vaccination coercion, conspiracy beliefs, and polarization, with a total sample size of N = 1202 (n = 400 in China, n = 401 in the US, and n = 401 in the UK), among them n = 603 were vaccinated and n = 599 were unvaccinated. As pre-registered, unvaccinated people perceived more vaccination coercion and endorsed more conspiracy theories. Conspiracy mentality was positively related to perceived coercion. Contrary to our hypotheses, vaccinated people were more polarized toward unvaccinated people than vice versa. Finally, conspiracy beliefs mediated the link between perceived coercion and polarization among unvaccinated people.

You must be myths-taken: Examining belief in falsehoods during the COVID-19 health crisis

The prevalence of health myths is increasing with the rise of Internet use. Left unaddressed, online falsehoods can lead to harmful behaviours. In times of crisis, such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of many myths is exacerbated, often to varying degrees among different cultures. Singapore is a multicultural hub in Asia with Western and Asian influences. Although several studies have examined health myths from a Western or Eastern perspective, little research has investigated online health falsehoods in a population that is culturally exposed to both. Furthermore, most studies examined myths cross-sectionally instead of capturing trends in myth prevalence over time, particularly during crisis situations. Given these literature gaps, we investigated popular myths surrounding the recent COVID-19 pandemic within the multicultural setting of Singapore, by examining its general population. We further examined changes in myth beliefs over the two-year period during the pandemic, and population demographic differences in myth beliefs. Using randomised sampling, two online surveys of nationally representative samples of adults (aged 21-70 years) residing in Singapore were conducted, the first between October 2020 and February 2021 (N = 949), and the second between March and April 2022 (N = 1084). Results showed that 12.7% to 57.5% of the population were unable to identify various myths, such as COVID-19 was manmade, and that three of these myths persisted significantly over time (increases ranging from 3.9% to 9.8%). However, belief in myths varied across population demographics, with ethnic minorities (Indians and Malays), females, young adults and those with lower education levels being more susceptible to myths than their counterparts (p < 0.05). Our findings suggest that current debunking efforts are insufficient to effectively counter misinformation beliefs during health crises. Instead, a post-COVID-19 landscape will require targeted approaches aimed at vulnerable population sub-groups, that also focus on the erroneous beliefs with long staying power.

Curious about threats: Morbid curiosity and interest in conspiracy theories in US adults

Conspiracy theories allege secret plots between two or more powerful actors to achieve an outcome, sometimes explaining important events or proposing alternative understandings of reality in opposition to mainstream accounts, and commonly highlight the threat presented by the plot and its conspirators. Research in psychology proposes that belief in conspiracy theories is motivated by a desire to understand threats and is predicted by increased anxiety. Morbid curiosity describes the tendency to seek out information about threatening or dangerous situations and is associated with an interest in threat-related entertainment and increased anxiety. Across three studies, we investigated the relationship between morbid curiosity and conspiracy theories in US-based samples. We found that higher trait morbid curiosity was associated with higher general conspiracist beliefs (Study 1) and the perceived threat of conspiratorial explanations of events (Study 2). Using a behavioural choice paradigm, we found that participants who chose to investigate morbidly curious stimuli were more likely to choose to learn about conspiratorial explanations for events (Study 3). Greater curiosity about the minds of dangerous people was consistently the strongest predictor of conspiratorial ideation and interest. These results suggest that morbid curiosity is an important but hitherto unstudied predictor of conspiratorial interest and belief.

Conspiracy beliefs explain why intolerance of uncertainty, personal control, and political uncontrollability predict willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19

Conspiracy theories tend to be disseminated in times when anxiety and uncertainty prevail. Thus, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic was fertile ground for the dissemination of conspiracy theories. The current study examined the role of conspiracy belief in the association between individual differences in perceptions of lack of control and certainty, and willingness to get vaccinated against COVID-19. Participants (N = 323) completed measures of willingness to get vaccinated, belief in COVID-19 vaccines conspiracy, intolerance of uncertainty (IOU), perceived personal control, and political uncontrollability. Results show that conspiracy beliefs mediated the positive association between perceived personal control and willingness to get vaccinated, and the negative association between political uncontrollability and willingness to get vaccinated. Additionally, conspiracy belief had a suppression effect on the association between IOU and willingness to get vaccinated. These findings indicate that uncertainty and sense of lack of control heighten the need for an explanation that offers some degree of clarity, which in turn is related to adoption of conspiracy theories and may consequently have negative effects on health behavior.

The role of conspiracy mindset in reducing support for child vaccination for COVID-19 in the United States

Introduction

We have previously proposed and tested a model that predicts reluctance to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the US from embrace of a conspiracy mindset that distrusts the federal health agencies of the US government and regards their intentions as malevolent. In this study, we tested the model's ability to predict adult support for COVID vaccination of children ages 5-11 after the vaccine was approved for this age group.

Methods

Relying on a national panel that was established in April 2021 (N = 1941) and followed until March of 2022, we examined the relation between conspiratorial thinking measured at baseline and belief in misinformation and conspiracies about COVID vaccines, trust in various health authorities, perceived risk of COVID to children, and belief in conspiracy theories about the pandemic's origin and impact. In addition, we tested a structural equation model (SEM) in which conspiracy mindset predicted adult support for childhood vaccination for COVID in January and March of 2022 as well as the adults own vaccination status and their willingness to recommend vaccinating children against measles, mumps and rubella (MMR).

Results

The model accounted for 76% of the variance in support for childhood vaccination for COVID-19; the relation between the mindset and support for vaccination was entirely mediated by baseline assessments of misinformation, trust, risk, and acceptance of pandemic conspiracy theories.

Discussion

The SEM replicated the prior test of the model, indicating that a conspiracy mindset present among at least 17% of the panel underlies their resistance to vaccinate both themselves and children. Efforts to counteract the mindset will likely require the intervention of trusted spokespersons who can overcome the skepticism inherent in conspiratorial thinking about the government and its health-related agencies' recommendations for a particular vaccine.

Reacting, Sharing, and Commenting: How Many Facebook Users Are Engaging with Posts Related to Dental Caries That Contain Misinformation?

Recent studies have been concerned about the vast amount of misinformation detected on social media that directly hampers the prevention and control of chronic diseases. Based on these facts, the aim of this study was to identify and characterize misinformation about dental caries-related content found on Facebook, regarding the predictive factors of user interaction with posts. Then, CrowdTangle retrieved 2,436 posts published in English, ordered by the total interaction of the highest users. A total of 1,936 posts were selected for inclusion and exclusion criteria to select a sample of 500 posts. Subsequently, two independent investigators characterized the posts by their time of publication, author's profile, motivation, the aim of content, content facticity, and sentiment. The statistical analysis was performed using Mann-Whitney U and χ2 tests and multiple logistic regression models to determine differences and associations between dichotomized characteristics. p values <0.05 were considered significant. In general, posts were predominantly originated from the USA (74.8%), related to business profiles (89%), presented preventive content (58.6%), and noncommercial motivation (91.6%). Furthermore, misinformation was detected in 40.8% of the posts and was positively associated with positive sentiment (OR = 3.43), business profile (OR = 2.22), and treatment of dental caries (OR = 1.60). While the total interaction was only positively associated with misinformation (OR = 1.44), the overperforming score was associated with posts from the business profile (OR = 5.67), older publications (OR = 1.57), and positive sentiment (OR = 0.66). In conclusion, misinformation was the unique predictive factor of increased user interaction with dental caries-related posts on Facebook. However, it did not predict the performance of the diffusion of posts such as business profiles, older publications, and negative/neutral sentiment. Therefore, it is essential to promote the development of specific policies toward good quality information on social media, which includes the production of adequate materials, the increase of the critical sense of consuming health content, and information filtering mediated by digital solutions.

Unravelling the relationship between populism and belief in conspiracy theories: The role of cynicism, powerlessness and zero-sum thinking

In recent years, it has been argued that conspiracy beliefs and populist attitudes go hand in hand. Despite their theoretical and empirical similarities, it remains unclear why these constructs are so closely associated. Across three studies, we examined the processes underlying the relationship between belief in conspiracy theories and populist attitudes. Study 1 (Greece, N = 275) and Study 2 (United Kingdom, N = 300) revealed that the relationship between populist attitudes and conspiracy beliefs is mediated by political cynicism and zero-sum thinking. In Study 3 (USA, N = 300, pre-registered), we use a vignette of a fictitious country to experimentally show that having a newly elected populist party in power (as compared to a well-established party) reduced participants' tendency to believe conspiracy theories. Moreover, this was due to increased empowerment, decreased political cynicism and decreased zero-sum thinking. These findings reveal various complementary mediators of the link between populist attitudes and conspiracy thinking and suggest that electing a populist party in power may reduce conspiracy beliefs among the public.

Conspiracy beliefs and COVID-19 guideline adherence in adolescent psychiatric outpatients: the predictive role of adverse childhood experiences

BACKGROUND

Conspiracy beliefs have become widespread throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous studies have shown that endorsing conspiracy beliefs leads to lower protective guideline adherence (i.e., wearing face masks), posing a threat to public health measures. The current study expands this research across the lifespan, i.e., in a sample of adolescents with mental health problems. Here, we investigated the association between conspiracy beliefs and guideline adherence while also exploring the predictors of conspiracy beliefs.

METHODS

N = 93 adolescent psychiatric outpatients (57% female, mean age: 15.8) were assessed using anonymous paper-pencil questionnaires. Endorsement of generic and COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs was assessed, in addition to items measuring adherence to protective guidelines and mental health (stress, depressive symptoms, emotional/behavioral problems, and adverse childhood experiences). Multiple regressions and supervised machine learning (conditional random forests) were used for analyses.

RESULTS

Fourteen percent of our sample fully endorsed at least one COVID-19 conspiracy theory, while protective guidelines adherence was relatively high (M = 4.92, on a scale from 1 to 7). The endorsement of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs-but not of generic conspiracy beliefs-was associated with lower guideline adherence (β = - 0.32, 95% CI - 0.53 to - 0.11, p < .001). Conditional random forests suggested that adverse childhood experiences and peer and conduct problems were relevant predictors of both conspiracy belief categories.

CONCLUSION

While a significant proportion of our sample of adolescents in psychiatric treatment endorsed conspiracy beliefs, the majority did not. Furthermore, and to some degree, contrary to public perception, we found that adolescents show relatively good adherence to public health measures-even while experiencing a high degree of mental distress. The predictive value of adverse childhood experiences and peer/conduct problems for conspiracy beliefs might be explained by compensatory mechanisms to ensure the safety, structure, and inclusion that conspiracies provide.

What Are Conspiracy Theories? A Definitional Approach to Their Correlates, Consequences, and Communication

Conspiracy theories are abundant in social and political discourse, with serious consequences for individuals, groups, and societies. However, psychological scientists have started paying close attention to them only in the past 20 years. We review the spectacular progress that has since been made and some of the limitations of research so far, and we consider the prospects for further progress. To this end, we take a step back to analyze the defining features that make conspiracy theories different in kind from other beliefs and different in degree from each other. We consider how these features determine the adoption, consequences, and transmission of belief in conspiracy theories, even though their role as causal or moderating variables has seldom been examined. We therefore advocate for a research agenda in the study of conspiracy theories that starts-as is routine in fields such as virology and toxicology-with a robust descriptive analysis of the ontology of the entity at its center.

Further examinations of attitudes toward discrete emotions, with a focus on attitudes toward anger

The present research aimed to better understand individual differences in attitudes towards emotions with a focus on anger. We report findings of four studies conducted with American and Polish individuals. Results showed that individuals who have more positive attitudes toward anger are higher in trait anger (Studies 1-4), are more likely to think about getting revenge (Study 1), and expect that getting revenge will make them feel good (Studies 1-2). In addition, these individuals are lower in agreeableness and lower in the tendency to engage in avoidance when angered (Studies 1-4). They score lower in humility (Studies 3-4), lower in secure romantic attachment but higher in anxious and avoidance attachment (Study 3). Finally, they are more likely to believe a wide range of conspiracies (Studies 2-4). Discussion focuses on the implications of these results.

Of precarity and conspiracy: Introducing a socio-functional model of conspiracy beliefs

Conspiracy Beliefs (CB) are a key vector of violent extremism, radicalism and unconventional political events. So far, social-psychological research has extensively documented how cognitive, emotional and intergroup factors can promote CB. Evidence also suggests that adherence to CB moves along social class lines: low-income and low-education are among the most robust predictors of CB. Yet, the potential role of precarity-the subjective experience of permanent insecurity stemming from objective material strain-in shaping CB remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose for the first time a socio-functional model of CB. We test the hypothesis that precarity could foster increased CB because it undermines trust in government and the broader political 'elites'. Data from the World Value Survey (n = 21,650; Study 1, electoral CB) and from representative samples from polls conducted in France (n = 1760, Study 2a, conspiracy mentality) and Italy (n = 2196, Study 2b, COVID-19 CB), corroborate a mediation model whereby precarity is directly and indirectly associated with lower trust in authorities and higher CB. In addition, these links are robust to adjustment on income, self-reported SES and education. Considering precarity allows for a truly social-psychological understanding of CB as the by-product of structural issues (e.g. growing inequalities). Results from our socio-functional model suggest that implementing solutions at the socio-economic level could prove efficient in fighting CB.

Exploring vaccine hesitancy: the twofold role of critical thinking

With the progress of the vaccination campaign against the SARS-COV-2, we are ever closer to reaching that part of the population that refuses or is hesitant about vaccination. This study investigated the association between critical thinking motivation factors (i.e., intrinsic value of critical thinking and expectancy of one's critical thinking ability), conspiracy mentality, intolerance of uncertainty and hesitancy toward vaccination. A sample of 390 participants completed an online survey during April 2021. Across participants, results indicate that conspiracy mentality and expectancy about personal ability as a critical thinker positively predict vaccine hesitancy. On the contrary, the intrinsic value attributed to critical thinking, intolerance of uncertainty, and education are negatively associated with hesitancy. While the findings confirm existing evidence, particularly on the detrimental role of conspiracy mentality on vaccine acceptance, they also shed light on the double-faced role exercised by critical thinking. Practical implications and future directions are discussed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-022-04165-w.

Mitigating and managing COVID-19 conspiratorial beliefs

BACKGROUND/AIM

Belief in COVID-19 related conspiracy theories is a widespread and consequential problem that healthcare leaders need to confront. In this article, we draw on insights from social psychology and organisational behaviour to offer evidence-based advice that healthcare leaders can use to reduce the spread of conspiratorial beliefs and ameliorate their negative effects, both during the current pandemic and beyond.

CONCLUSION

Leaders can effectively combat conspiratorial beliefs by intervening early and bolstering people's sense of control. Leaders can also address some of the problematic behaviours that result from conspiratorial beliefs by introducing incentives and mandates (e.g., vaccine mandates). However, because of the limitations of incentives and mandates, we suggest that leaders complement these techniques with interventions that leverage the power of social norms and increase people's connections to others.

Individual, intergroup and nation-level influences on belief in conspiracy theories

Conspiracy theories are part of mainstream public life, with the potential to undermine governments, promote racism, ignite extremism and threaten public health efforts. Psychological research on conspiracy theories is booming, with more than half of the academic articles on the topic published since 2019. In this Review, we synthesize the literature with an eye to understanding the psychological factors that shape willingness to believe conspiracy theories. We begin at the individual level, examining the cognitive, clinical, motivational, personality and developmental factors that predispose people to believe conspiracy theories. Drawing on insights from social and evolutionary psychology, we then review research examining conspiracy theories as an intergroup phenomenon that reflects and reinforces societal fault lines. Finally, we examine how conspiracy theories are shaped by the economic, political, cultural and socio-historical contexts at the national level. This multilevel approach offers a deep and broad insight into conspiracist thinking that increases understanding of the problem and offers potential solutions.

Emotion Dysregulation and Conspiracy Beliefs about COVID-19: The Moderating Role of Critical Social Media Use

As COVID-19 has spread worldwide, conspiracy theories have proliferated rapidly on social media platforms, adversely affecting public health. For this reason, media literacy interventions have been highly recommended, although the impact of critical social media use on the development of COVID-19 conspiracy theories has not yet been empirically studied. Moreover, emotional dysregulation may play another crucial role in the development of such theories, as they are often associated with stress, anxiety, lack of control, and other negative emotions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that emotion dysregulation would be positively associated with conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 and that critical use of social media would attenuate this association. Data from 930 Italian participants (339 men and 591 women) were collected online during the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. A moderated model was tested using the PROCESS Macro for SPSS. Results showed that: (1) emotion dysregulation and critical social media use accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19; and (2) critical social media use moderated the effect of emotion dysregulation on conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19. Implications for preventing the spread of conspiracy theories are discussed.

Coping styles mediating the relationship between perceived chronic stress and conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19

As a global health crisis, COVID-19 has led to a rise in overall stress levels. Concurrently, conspiracy beliefs regarding the origin and spread of the disease have become widespread. Engaging in such beliefs can be explained as a form of coping in order to deal with elevated levels of stress. The present study investigated the indirect effects of coping strategies in the association between perceived chronic stress and COVID-related conspiracy beliefs. We report data from an online survey (N = 1,354 individuals: 807 female; 508 male; 8 diverse; 6 not specified; mean age 39.14 years) in German-speaking countries collected between January and March 2021. Our results indicate that people who felt more stressed were more prone to conspiracy beliefs. Coping via acceptance and self-blame was associated with decreased tendencies towards COVID-related conspiracy beliefs, while people who used denial as a strategy were more prone to these beliefs. These findings emphasize the need for stress management interventions and effective coping strategies during times of crisis in order to reduce chronic perceived stress, promote adaptive coping, and ultimately reduce conspiracy beliefs.

COVID-19 Related Stresses, Conspiracy Beliefs, Uncertainty, and Non-adherence to Safety Guidelines

INTRODUCTION

Inconsistent use of protective preventive measures and nonadherence of the guidelines set by the World Health Organization regarding the coronavirus are associated with increased morbidity and mortality, as well as increased health care costs.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine the role of COVID-19 related worries, conspiracy beliefs, and uncertainty in adherence to preventative measures in Iran.

METHOD

In a large survey with data collected online from a volunteer sample of 599 individuals, assessments were made of the distress associated with the anticipated potential consequences associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown, extent of agreement with conspiracy beliefs, level of situation-specific uncertainty, and self-reports of compliance with preventive measures. Data were analyzed to explore paths leading to nonadherence to safety guidelines proposed by the medical authorities.

RESULTS

A large majority of individuals report significant distress and worry associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Results indicate that increasing levels of situation-specific uncertainty intolerance, as well as conspiracy beliefs regarding the coronavirus, are associated with non-compliance with the advised protocols. Specifically, the results show that worries related to the COVID-19 pandemic are linked to non-compliance with preventive measures through conspiracy beliefs and feelings of uncertainty associated with the COVID-19 situation even after gender, education, and perceived socioeconomic status were controlled.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings imply that emotional exhaustion is likely to have set in and become counterproductive as people choose to violate safety guidelines. The authors discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results.

Do conspiracy theories efficiently signal coalition membership? An experimental test using the "Who Said What?" design

Theoretical work in evolutionary psychology have proposed that conspiracy theories may serve a coalitional function. Specifically, fringe and offensive statements such as conspiracy theories are expected to send a highly credible signal of coalition membership by clearly distinguishing the speaker's group from other groups. A key implication of this theory is that cognitive systems designed for alliance detection should intuitively interpret the endorsement of conspiracy theories as coalitional cues. To our knowledge, no previous studies have empirically investigated this claim. Taking the domain of environmental policy as our case, we examine the hypothesis that beliefs framed in a conspiratorial manner act as more efficient coalitional markers of environmental position than similar but non-conspiratorial beliefs. To test this prediction, quota sampled American participants (total N = 2462) completed two pre-registered Who-Said-What experiments where we measured if participants spontaneously categorize targets based on their environmental position, and if this categorization process is enhanced by the use of a conspiratorial frame. We find firm evidence that participants categorize by environmental position, but no evidence that the use of conspiratorial statements increases categorization strength and thus serves a coalitional function.

Psychological underpinnings of pandemic denial - patterns of disagreement with scientific experts in the German public during the COVID-19 pandemic

We investigated pandemic denial in the general public in Germany after the first wave of COVID-19 in May 2020. Using latent class analysis, we compared patterns of disagreement with claims about (a) the origin, spread, or infectiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and (b) the personal risk from COVID-19 between scientific laypersons (N = 1,575) and scientific experts (N = 128). Two groups in the general public differed distinctively from expert evaluations. The Dismissive (8%) are characterized by low-risk assessment, low compliance with containment measures, and mistrust in politicians. The Doubtful (19%) are characterized by low cognitive reflection, high uncertainty in the distinction between true and false claims, and high social media intake. Our research indicates that pandemic denial cannot be linked to a single and distinct pattern of psychological dispositions but involves different subgroups within the general population that share high COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs and low beliefs in epistemic complexity.

What Breeds Conspiracy Theories in COVID-19? The Role of Risk Perception in the Belief in COVID-19 Conspiracy

Conspiracy theories often emerge during public health crises, and can provide some explanation for the causes behind the crises. However, the prevalence of conspiracy theories also poses a serious threat to public health order and hinders the implementation of disease prevention and control measures. No studies have examined the role of multiple risk perceptions in the formation of beliefs in conspiracy theories from a cognitive perspective in the context of the epidemic. In this cross-sectional study, participants filled in an online survey in order to investigate the relationship between epidemic severity and beliefs in conspiracy theories and the mediating role of risk perception in this relationship. The results showed that COVID-19 epidemic severity positively predicted beliefs in both in- and out-group conspiracy theories. Risk perception mediated the positive relationship between COVID-19 epidemic severity and belief in in-group conspiracy theories. These results suggest that in a major public health crisis event: (1) residents at the epicenter may be more prone to believing in both in- and out-group conspiracy theories; and (2) beliefs in in- and out-group conspiracy theories may have different psychological mechanisms. Therefore, conspiracy theories about public health incidents, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, should be classified and treated by policy stakeholders.

Why conspiracy theorists are not always paranoid: Conspiracy theories and paranoia form separate factors with distinct psychological predictors

Paranoia and belief in conspiracy theories both involve suspiciousness about the intentions of others but have rarely been studied together. In three studies, one with a mainly student sample (N = 496) and two with more representative UK population samples (N = 1,519, N = 638) we compared single and two-factor models of paranoia and conspiracy theories as well as associations between both belief systems and other psychological constructs. A model with two correlated factors was the best fit in all studies. Both belief systems were associated with poor locus of control (belief in powerful others and chance) and loneliness. Paranoid beliefs were specifically associated with negative self-esteem and, in two studies, insecure attachment; conspiracy theories were associated with positive self-esteem in the two larger studies and narcissistic personality traits in the final study. Conspiracist thinking but not paranoia was associated with poor performance on the Cognitive Reflection Task (poor analytical thinking). The findings suggest that paranoia and belief in conspiracy theories are distinct but correlated belief systems with both common and specific psychological components.

Verschwörungstheorien und paranoider Wahn: Lassen sich Aspekte kognitionspsychologischer Modelle zu Entstehung und Aufrechterhaltung von paranoiden Wahnüberzeugungen auf Verschwörungstheorien übertragen?

Der vorliegende narrative Übersichtsartikel stellt zunächst verschiedene Definitionen von Verschwörungstheorien und Verschwörungsmentalität vor und präsentiert Studien zu Zusammenhängen zwischen Persönlichkeitseigenschaften, Symptomen psychischer Störungen und Verschwörungstheorien. Anschließend werden die Kontinuumshypothese des Wahns sowie neuere Konzeptualisierungen von allgemeinem und paranoiden Wahn diskutiert, des Weiteren werden typische kognitionspsychologische Modelle präsentiert, die die Entstehung und Aufrechterhaltung von Wahnüberzeugungen durch eine Interaktion von biologischen Vulnerabilitätsfaktoren, psychologischen Faktoren und sozialen Faktoren erklären. In diesen Modellen mediieren sowohl kognitive Verarbeitungsstile („cognitive biases“) als auch emotionale Prozesse die Entstehung und Aufrechterhaltung von Wahn, beispielsweise die Tendenz, voreilige Schlussfolgerungen zu treffen („jumping to conclusions bias“), sowie externale Kontrollüberzeugungen und ein externalisierender personalisierender Kausalattributionsstil. Anschließend wird diskutiert, ob Menschen, die Verschwörungstheorien zugeneigt sind, ebenfalls ähnliche kognitive Verarbeitungsstile aufweisen, die auch bei Personen zu finden sind, die paranoiden Wahnüberzeugungen zustimmen und unter psychotischen Störungen leiden. Parallelen bestehen zwischen beiden Personengruppen beispielsweise im Hinblick auf eine Neigung zu externalen Kontrollüberzeugungen und einen external personalisierenden Kausalattributionsstil. Auch bestehen Ähnlichkeiten in der Neigung, voreilige Schlussfolgerungen zu treffen. Fragen nach Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschieden zwischen beiden Phänomenen sollten in weiteren präregistrierten experimentellen Studien quer- sowie längsschnittlich untersucht werden. Möglicherweise könnten moderne niedrigschwellige Interventionsmethoden der kognitiven Verhaltenstherapie von Psychosen (CBTp) in die Beratung oder Prävention von Verschwörungstheorien implementiert werden.