POSSUM: a scoring system for surgical audit

Risk Prediction Tools for Estimating Surgical Difficulty and Perioperative and Postoperative Outcomes Including Morbidity for Major Urological Surgery: A Concept for the Future of Surgical Planning

Risk assessment plays a critical role in surgical decision-making and influences patient care, resource allocation, surgical planning, and postoperative outcomes. Accurate stratification facilitates better treatment selection and planning, and identification of teaching cases. Existing tools such as POSSUM and the Surgical Apgar Score are widely used but focus primarily on general surgery and often lack urology-specific considerations or integration of intraoperative factors. Urological surgery requires a dedicated tool that accounts for preoperative factors (eg, prostate size, tumour extent), intraoperative findings (eg, fibrosis, adhesions), and patient-specific complexities. We propose a comprehensive scoring system for risk and surgical difficulty that ranges from 0 (no risk) to 100 (procedure abandonment or death) covering five parameter categories: preoperative patient characteristics; intraoperative patient factors; preoperative organ-specific parameters; intraoperative organ-specific factors; and unexpected postoperative conditions. The aims of the proposed system are to improve surgical planning, enhance risk prediction, and identify suitable teaching cases. By incorporating surgeon-specific factors such as case volume and learning curves, the system stratifies procedures by difficulty and can facilitate comparisons between surgeons and hospitals. The system can also promote transparency in patient counselling and may improve the quality of patient consent. Once validated, the scoring system could be integrated into standard practice to improve surgical care, resource allocation, and research efforts. Despite challenges such as comprehensive data collection, this tool offers significant potential to enhance surgical outcomes and multidisciplinary decision-making.

Patient summary

Risk assessment is essential in helping surgeons and anaesthetists to make better decisions before, during, and after surgery. The aim of our work is to create a tool that predicts potential risks and challenges during surgery and makes it easier to prepare for these challenges. This tool can improve management of resources and surgical planning, and may ensure smooth recovery after an operation. Finally, it could also help patients and their families to understand the potential risks involved, giving them clearer information about what to expect and making the process more transparent and reassuring.

Machine Learning Insight: Unveiling Overlooked Risk Factors for Postoperative Complications in Gastric Cancer

BACKGROUND

Since postoperative complications after gastrectomy for gastric cancer are associated with poor clinical outcomes, it is important to predict and prepare for the occurrence of complications preoperatively. Conventional models for predicting complications have limitations, prompting interest in machine learning algorithms. Machine learning models have a superior ability to identify complex interactions among variables and nonlinear relationships, potentially revealing new risk factors. This study aimed to explore previously overlooked risk factors for postoperative complications and compare machine learning models with linear regression.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed data from 865 patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer from 2018 to 2022. A total of 85 variables, including demographics, clinical features, laboratory values, intraoperative parameters, and pathologic results, were used to conduct the machine learning model. The dataset was partitioned into 80% for training and 20% for validation. To identify the most accurate prediction model, missing data handling, variable selection, and hyperparameter tuning were performed.

RESULTS

Machine learning models performed notably well when using the backward elimination method and a moderate missing data strategy, achieving the highest area under the curve values (0.744). A total of 15 variables associated with postoperative complications were identified using a machine learning algorithm. Operation time was the most impactful variable, followed closely by pre-operative levels of albumin and mean corpuscular hemoglobin. Machine learning models, especially Random Forest and XGBoost, outperformed linear regression.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning, coupled with advanced variable selection techniques, showed promise in enhancing risk prediction of postoperative complications for gastric cancer surgery.

Risk factors for postoperative pneumonia in older adults aged ≥ 80 years with gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

In Japan, the proportion of elderly gastric cancer patients is increasing. Although surgery in patients aged ≥ 80 years is relatively safe, postoperative pneumonia often occurs, reducing quality of life and being fatal. We retrospectively investigated the risk factors for pneumonia after gastrectomy in elderly patients at our hospital.

METHODS

Between 2010 and 2019, 113 patients aged ≥ 80 years underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer at our hospital. Of these, 88 patients were retrospectively investigated, excluding 25 patients who did not receive sufficient postoperative follow-up. The diagnosis of pneumonia was based on chest CT findings. Univariate and multivariate analyzes for risk factors of pneumonia were performed using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

The patients were aged 80-93 years (median 83 years) and consisted of 63 males and 25 females. The surgical procedures included distal gastrectomy in 54, total gastrectomy in 25, proximal gastrectomy in two, and local resection in seven. Postoperative pneumonia was observed in 38 patients. Seventeen of them died from pneumonia. The time to onset of pneumonia was 0.2-144.6 months (median 12.0 months), and the median observation period for patients without pneumonia was 38.8 months. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index, respiratory history, and extent of gastrectomy (total vs. distal: hazard ratio 3.91, 95% confidence interval 1.69-9.02) were independent pneumonia factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients aged ≥ 80 years, age, low nutritional status, respiratory history, and total gastrectomy were risk factors for postoperative pneumonia.

Risk stratification of postoperative pancreatic fistula and other complications following pancreatoduodenectomy. How far are we? A scoping review

PURPOSE

Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is a challenging procedure which is associated with high morbidity rates. This study was performed to make an overview of risk factors included in risk stratification methods both logistic regression models and models based on artificial intelligence algorithms to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) and other complications following PD and to provide insight in the extent to which these tools were validated.

METHODS

Five databases were searched to identify relevant studies. Calculators, equations, nomograms, and artificial intelligence models that addressed POPF and other complications were included. Only PD resections were considered eligible. There was no exclusion of the minimally invasive techniques reporting PD resections. All other pancreatic resections were excluded.

RESULTS

90 studies were included. Thirty-five studies were related to POPF, thirty-five studies were related to other complications following PD and twenty studies were related to artificial intelligence predication models after PD. Among the identified risk factors, the most used factors for POPF risk stratification were the main pancreatic duct diameter (MPD) (80%) followed by pancreatic texture (51%), whereas for other complications the most used factors were age (34%) and ASA score (29.4%). Only 26% of the evaluated risk stratification tools for POPF and other complications were externally validated. This percentage was even lower for the risk models using artificial intelligence which was 20%.

CONCLUSION

The MPD was the most used factor when stratifying the risk of POPF followed by pancreatic texture. Age and ASA score were the most used factors for the stratification of other complications. Insight in clinically relevant risk factors could help surgeons in adapting their surgical strategy and shared decision-making. This study revealed that the focus of research still lies on developing new risk models rather than model validation, hampering clinical implementation of these tools for decision support.

Perioperative risk scores: prediction, pitfalls, and progress

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Perioperative risk scores aim to risk-stratify patients to guide their evaluation and management. Several scores are established in clinical practice, but often do not generalize well to new data and require ongoing updates to improve their reliability. Recent advances in machine learning have the potential to handle multidimensional data and associated interactions, however their clinical utility has yet to be consistently demonstrated. In this review, we introduce key model performance metrics, highlight pitfalls in model development, and examine current perioperative risk scores, their limitations, and future directions in risk modelling.

RECENT FINDINGS

Newer perioperative risk scores developed in larger cohorts appear to outperform older tools. Recent updates have further improved their performance. Machine learning techniques show promise in leveraging multidimensional data, but integrating these complex tools into clinical practice requires further validation, and a focus on implementation principles to ensure these tools are trusted and usable.

SUMMARY

All perioperative risk scores have some limitations, highlighting the need for robust model development and validation. Advancements in machine learning present promising opportunities to enhance this field, particularly through the integration of diverse data sources that may improve predictive performance. Future work should focus on improving model interpretability and incorporating continuous learning mechanisms to increase their clinical utility.

Surgeon attitudes toward risk stratification in emergency surgery for the elderly: an ESTES cross-sectional survey

PURPOSE

Our study explores the utilization of objective tools for preoperative assessment of elderly patients by Emergency General Surgeons (EGS).

METHODS

A descriptive cross-sectional survey was conducted via the European Society for Trauma and Emergency Surgery (ESTES) Research Committee. EGS were invited through the ESTES members' mailing list and social media platforms. The survey included two sections: (1) clinical scenarios involving elderly patients with varying chronic conditions, and (2) participant characteristics. Data collection lasted 12 weeks, with reminders sent every 4 weeks. Statistical analyses were performed using Microsoft Excel and EasyMedStat.

RESULTS

One hundred and seven surgeons responded to the survey. Median respondent age was 41 years, with a male prevalence (72.9%). Most participants were from Europe (85%). Key-findings included that 62.6% reported using one or more risk assessment tools (RATs), while 35.5% used one or more frailty scores. Additionally, 4.7% were unaware of any RATs, and 35.5% were unaware of any frailty scores. Decision-making strategies leveraging personal experience with minimal impact from RATs predominated.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative risk assessment tool and frailty score use for elderly patients requiring emergency surgery remains limited among ESTES surgeons. Our study highlights the need for focused education and tool workflow integration to improve risk stratification, decision-making and outcomes. Institutional approaches coupled with targeted educational interventions using implementation science principles are recommended to bridge this knowledge-to-action gap. Future research should focus on developing comprehensive, user-friendly tools and evaluating their impact on patient-centered outcomes.

Oxidised cellulose in musculoskeletal oncology procedure: Does it reduce postoperative blood loss?

BACKGROUND

Major musculoskeletal oncology procedures often result in perioperative bleeding. This exposes patients to allogeneic red blood cell transfusion and its potential complications, thus increasing the risk of surgical wound infection and prolonged hospital stay. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of oxidised cellulose, a topical haemostatic agent, in reducing postoperative blood loss and its subsequent risks.

METHODS

In this randomised controlled trial, 40 patients undergoing major musculoskeletal oncology procedures were assigned to control and intervention groups. Oxidised cellulose was inserted into the surgical wound after the resection's conclusion before the wound's closure to reduce postoperative bleeding for patients in the intervention group. Postoperative closed suction drain system (Redivac TM) volume, drop in haemoglobin level, allogeneic red blood cell transfusion rate, duration of surgery, and length of hospital stay were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

The postoperative Redivac volume (Control: 432 MLS vs. Intervention: 431.75 MLS), drop in haemoglobin level (Control: 3.12 g/dL vs. Intervention: 3.06 g/dL), duration of surgery (Control: 134 vs. Intervention: 156 min), and allogeneic red blood cell transfusion were lower in the intervention group (Control: 204 MLS vs. Intervention: 170 MLS), but they were not statistically significant (p > 0.05) (Control: 134 vs. Intervention: 156 min). Mean hospital stay was similar in both groups (Control: 5.45 days vs. Intervention: 5.85 days).

CONCLUSION

Oxidised cellulose use does not significantly affect postoperative blood loss, the rate of allogeneic blood transfusion, and hospital stay. However, we believe its use contributes positively but not considerably towards lower postoperative blood loss in musculoskeletal oncology surgeries.

The Perioperative NonaGEnaRIan And cenTenarian suRgICal (GERIATRIC) Risk Stratification Tool

Objective

To develop age-appropriate nonaGEnaRIan And cenTenarian suRgICal (GERIATRIC) risk tool for classifying patients who may or may not develop postoperative complications or die within their index hospital admission.

Background

There are no validated perioperative risk stratification tools for use in nonagenarian and centenarian patients-people aged 90 to 99 years and >100 years.

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, nonagenarians and centenarians undergoing any surgical procedure were profiled. Surgery severity was stratified, and the incidence and grade of postoperative complications were recorded. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed on a training cohort, followed by calibration on a validation cohort, followed by performance evaluation on a testing cohort. The discriminative accuracy was compared to that of the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index for each outcome. The primary outcome was the ability of the risk stratification tool to effectively classify patients into those who may or may not experience a postoperative complications or mortality within their index hospital stay.

Results

A total of 3085 patients were enrolled. The GERIATRIC risk tool had good discriminative accuracy for any postoperative complication [area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), 0.857; 95% CI = 0.824-0.890] and any severe postoperative complication (AUROC, 0.833; 95% CI = 0.793-0.874), and fair discriminative accuracy for in-hospital mortality (AUROC, 0.780; 95% CI = 0.668-0.893).

Conclusions

Compared to the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, The GERIATRIC risk tool was accurate in classifying patients into those who may or may not experience severe complications or die during their index admission. The tool can be used to assist perioperative clinicians with shared decision-making and short-term prognostication.

Extent of resection and underlying liver disease influence the accuracy of the preoperative risk assessment with the American College of Surgeons Risk Calculator

BACKGROUND

Liver surgery is associated with a significant risk of postoperative complications, depending on the extent of liver resection and the underlying liver disease. Therefore, adequate patient selection is crucial. This study aimed to assess the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons Risk Calculator (ACS-RC) by considering liver parenchyma quality and the type of liver resection.

METHODS

Patients who underwent open or minimally invasive liver resection for benign or malignant indications between January 2019 and March 2023 at the University Hospital Basel were included. Brier score and feature importance analysis were performed to investigate the accuracy of the ACS-RC.

RESULTS

A total of 376 patients were included in the study, 214 (57%) who underwent partial hepatectomy, 89 (24%) who underwent hemihepatectomy, and 73 (19%) who underwent trisegmentectomy. Most patients had underlying liver diseases, with 143 (38%) patients having fibrosis, 75 patients (20%) having steatosis, and 61 patients (16%) having cirrhosis. The ACS-RC adequately predicted surgical site infection (Brier score of 0.035), urinary tract infection (Brier score of 0.038), and death (Brier score of 0.046), and moderate accuracy was achieved for serious complications (Brier score of 0.216) and overall complications (Brier score of 0.180). Compared with the overall cohort, the prediction was limited in patients with cirrhosis, fibrosis, and steatosis and in those who underwent hemihepatectomy and trisegmentectomy. The inclusion of liver parenchyma quality improved the prediction accuracy.

CONCLUSION

The ACS-RC is a reliable tool for estimating 30-day postoperative morbidity, particularly for patients with healthy liver parenchyma undergoing partial liver resection. However, accurate perioperative risk prediction should be adjusted for underlying liver disease and extended liver resections.

Patient-reported performance status and postoperative complications in elective colorectal cancer surgery

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the concordance between patient-reported performance status (prPS) and surgeon-reported performance status (srPS), and to assess the correlation between srPS and prPS and postoperative complications following elective colorectal cancer surgery. Not all patients are deemed suitable for undergoing a surgical procedure. We aimed to assess whether prPS can aid the surgeons' decision-making prior to surgery.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, 524 patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery were included. prPS were collected via questionnaires, while 30-day postoperative complications were obtained from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group (DCCG) database. To evaluate the agreement between prPS and srPS, linearly weighted kappa statistics were applied. Rank-biserial correlation analysis was used to calculate the correlation between prPS and srPS with postoperative complications.

RESULTS

In total, there was an approximate 71% concordance between the assessments. Around 17% of the patients rated themselves with a higher PS status than the surgeons, while 13% of the patients rated themselves with a lower PS. Overall postoperative complications, minor surgical complications, and medical complications were all significantly correlated to both srPS and prPS, while only srPS was correlated with major surgical complications. Neither srPS nor prPS were correlated with overall surgical complications (major and minor collapsed).

CONCLUSION

The agreement between prPS and srPS is poor and in nearly one-third of the cases, disagreement occurs. Overall, both prPS and srPS were correlated to postoperative complications, with srPS demonstrated a slightly higher correlation.

Effect of Frailty on Postoperative Outcomes Following Major Abdominal Surgeries: A Prospective Observational Study

Background

Frailty poses unique challenges for patients undergoing major cancer surgeries due to their extreme vulnerability to physiological stressors and can be an important factor in determining postoperative outcomes.

Aims and objective

The objective of the study was to determine the incidence of frailty in patients undergoing major abdominal cancer surgeries and identify the risk factors predicting poor outcomes.

Materials and methods

This was a prospective observational study conducted following institutional ethics approval and CTRI registration. We included 308 adult patients who underwent major abdominal cancer surgeries over two years. The preoperative frailty score was calculated using the 11-point modified frailty index score (mFI scale). Patients with a mFI score ≥ 3 points were considered frail. Clinical outcomes such as postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grades III and IV), surgical site infections, need for vasopressors, mechanical ventilation, acute kidney injury (AKI), length of ICU and hospital stay, and mortality at 30 days were recorded.

Results

The overall incidence of frailty according to the mFI scale was 8.1%. Age and higher American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) status were significantly associated with frailty (OR -1.073, p < 0.001, and OR -10.220, p < 0.001) respectively. Frailty was an independent predictor of major postoperative complications (OR -8.147, 95%; CI -2.524-26.292, p < 0.001). Frailty was also significantly associated with an increased duration of mechanical ventilation and length of stay (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The modified frailty index (mFI) score remains a strong predictor of postoperative complications in patients undergoing major abdominal cancer surgeries and can help optimize risk factors to minimize complications.

How to cite this article

Joshi M, Bhoslae SJ, Pandhare J, Rathod R, Solanki SL, Kulkarni AP. Effect of Frailty on Postoperative Outcomes Following Major Abdominal Surgeries: A Prospective Observational Study. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(11):1038-1043.

An interrater reliability analysis of preoperative mortality risk calculators used for elective high-risk noncardiac surgical patients shows poor to moderate reliability

BACKGROUND

Multiple preoperative calculators are available online to predict preoperative mortality risk for noncardiac surgical patients. However, it is currently unknown how these risk calculators perform across different raters. The current study investigated the interrater reliability of three preoperative mortality risk calculators in an elective high-risk noncardiac surgical patient population to evaluate if these calculators can be safely used for identification of high-risk noncardiac surgical patients for a preoperative multidisciplinary team discussion.

METHODS

Five anesthesiologists assessed the preoperative mortality risk of 34 high-risk patients using the preoperative score to calculate postoperative mortality risks (POSPOM), the American College of Surgeons surgical risk calculator (SRC), and the surgical outcome risk tool (SORT). In total, 170 calculations per calculator were gathered.

RESULTS

Interrater reliability was poor for SORT (ICC (C.I. 95%) = 0.46 (0.30-0.63)) and moderate for SRC (ICC = 0.65 (0.51-0.78)) and POSPOM (ICC = 0.63 (0.49-0.77). The absolute range of calculated mortality risk was 0.2-72% for POSPOM, 0-36% for SRC, and 0.4-17% for SORT. The coefficient of variation increased in higher risk classes for POSPOM and SORT. The extended Bland-Altman limits of agreement suggested that all raters contributed to the variation in calculated risks.

CONCLUSION

The current results indicate that the preoperative risk calculators POSPOM, SRC, and SORT exhibit poor to moderate interrater reliability. These calculators are not sufficiently accurate for clinical identification and preoperative counseling of high-risk surgical patients. Clinicians should be trained in using mortality risk calculators. Also, clinicians should be cautious when using predicted mortality estimates from these calculators to identify high-risk noncardiac surgical patients for elective surgery.

Rates of Textbook Outcome Achieved in Patients Undergoing Liver and Pancreatic Surgery

Backgorund: Textbook outcome (TO) is a composite measure that reflects the most desirable surgical results as a single indicator. The aim of this study was to assess the achievement of TO at a hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) surgery unit in a Spanish tertiary hospital. Methods: We performed a retrospective observational study of all consecutive patients who underwent HPB surgery over a 4-year period. Morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification at 30 days, hospital stay, risk of morbidity and mortality according to the POSSUM, and mortality and readmissions at 90 days were recorded. TO was considered when a patient presented no major complications (≥IIIA), no mortality, no readmission, and no prolonged length of stay (≤75th). Results: 283 patients were included. Morbidity >IIIA was reported in 21.6%, and 5.7% died; the median postoperative stay was 4 days. TO was achieved in 56.2% of patients. Comparing patients who presented TO with those who did not, significant differences were recorded for the type of procedure and the expected risk of morbidity and mortality calculated according to the POSSUM scale. There were significant differences between patients with major resections (TO rates: major hepatectomy (46.3%) and major pancreatectomy (52.5%)) and those with minor resections (TO rates minor hepatectomy (67.7%) and minor pancreatectomy (40.4%)). Conclusions: TO is a useful management tool for assessing postoperative results.

Preoperative mortality risk evaluation in abdominal surgical emergencies: development and internal validation of the NDAR score from a national multicenter audit in Senegal

INTRODUCTION

Abdominal surgical emergencies have a high mortality rate. Effective management primarily relies on the early identification of patients at high risk of postoperative complications. The objective of our study was to determine the prognostic factors associated with poor outcomes from abdominal surgical emergencies in Senegal and to establish a predictive score for mortality for preoperative risk evaluation (NDAR (New Death Assessment Risk) score).

METHODOLOGY

This was a retrospective national cross-sectional study conducted over one year in 14 regions of Senegal. Adult patients (aged > 15 years) who presented with a traumatic or non-traumatic abdominal surgical emergency were included. The studied variables included clinical and paraclinical data. The variable of interest was death within 30 days of the surgery. Logistic regression was used to identify the factors independently associated with mortality. Risk factors identified after logistic regression analysis were weighted using odds ratio (OR) values rounded to the nearest whole number. The predictive capacity of the score was evaluated by analyzing the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve based on the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 1114 patient records were included, with a mortality rate of 4.4%. Diagnoses were observed in patients included appendicitis in 39.8% of cases (n = 444), followed by peritonitis in 22.3% (n = 249), intestinal obstruction in 18.5% (n = 205), strangulated hernias in 10.5% (n = 117), and abdominal trauma in 6.1%. Logistic regression, established the following scores: age > 40 years (score 2), ASA status grade 2 or higher (score 1), presence of a positive QSIRS score (score 2), diagnosis of peritonitis (score 2), diagnosis of intestinal obstruction (score 1), and the presence of intestinal necrosis (score 3). The score is positive if the total is strictly greater than 5, indicating a 17.7% risk of mortality. This score had a high predictive capacity with an AUC of 0.7397.

CONCLUSION

This study enabled the establishment of a score that allows for the early identification of at-risk patients, even in constrained resource settings, facilitating appropriate perioperative management and timely surgical intervention to reduce the risk of complications. This approach, focused on early recognition of high-risk patients, is crucial for improving clinical outcomes in abdominal surgical emergencies.

Morbidity and mortality after elective cancer surgery-How does recent Covid-19 infection impact outcome: A prospective, comparative study

Background and Aims

Post-Covid-19 cancer patients are likely to have poor postoperative outcomes following cancer surgeries. This is mainly because of the coexisting risk factors unique to cancer patients like immunosuppression, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy-induced risk of infection and malnutrition. The purpose of this study was to compare the postoperative morbidity in cancer patients with and without a history of Covid infection.

Material and Methods

This was a prospective observational study. Subjects were divided into post-Covid 19 (PC) and non-Covid 19 (NC) groups based on the history of SARS CoV2. Preoperative data including details of past Covid infection, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, comorbidity index, Portsmouth-Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) score, and nutritional indices were recorded for patients undergoing elective cancer surgery. Thirty-day postoperative morbidity, mortality was recorded.

Results

Of the total patients (n = 414), 109 had postoperative complications (26.33%), reported to be higher in the PC group (33.87%) than the NC (25%) (P value: 0.19). Pulmonary complications were commonest with higher incidence in PC (25.8%) group (P value: 0.001). It was 40% in 2-4 weeks after Covid 19 diagnosis reducing to 18% and 25% in 4-8 weeks and 8-12 weeks, respectively. The overall mortality rate was 0.72%. P-POSSUM morbidity score was similar between the two groups. (PC: 38.30 ± 19.4; Covid negative 37.8 ± 16.7 P value 0.84). Old age, hypothyroidism, and low Prognostic nutritional index were associated with a higher incidence of complications.

Conclusions

Cancer patients with a history of Covid infection undergoing elective surgery are at a higher risk of postoperative pulmonary complications.

Management of Large Ovarian Tumors in Elderly Patients Using the Aron Alpha Method and Principles of Enhanced Recovery after Surgery

Objectives

We performed preoperative evaluations of giant ovarian tumors in older adult patients using the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) and estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) scoring systems. We report a case in which the Aron Alpha method was performed, and perioperative management was performed using enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS).

Materials and Methods

We performed preoperative evaluations using the E-PASS scoring system and CGA on older adult patients with giant ovarian tumors, followed by the minimally invasive Aron Alpha method and perioperative management using ERAS.

Results

The mean patient age was 75.8 ± 8.8 years; comorbidities included hypertension in three patients, hyperlipidemia in two, angina pectoris in one, cholecystitis in one, and lower extremity varicose veins in one. The mean tumor size was 21.0 ± 5.4 cm. The E-PASS scoring system showed a preoperative risk score of 0.7 ± 0.4, a surgical stress score of 0, and a comprehensive risk score of 0.3 ± 0.3. CGA showed that two patients had problems with activities of daily living and cognitive function. The mean duration of surgery was 89.0 ± 16.6 min, and the mean blood loss was 56.0 ± 65.4 mL. No surgery-associated complications were observed. No patients had prolonged hospitalization or a decline in activities of daily living.

Conclusion

We showed the usefulness of performing detailed preoperative evaluations using CGA and the E-PASS system, followed by the minimally invasive Aron Alpha surgical method and perioperative management using ERAS in improving surgical outcomes in older adult patients with giant ovarian tumors.

Source Control and Antibiotics in Intra-Abdominal Infections

Intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) account for a major cause of morbidity and mortality, representing the second most common sepsis-related death with a hospital mortality of 23-38%. Prompt identification of sepsis source, appropriate resuscitation, and early treatment with the shortest delay possible are the cornerstones of management of IAIs and are associated with a more favorable clinical outcome. The aim of source control is to reduce microbial load by removing the infection source and it is achievable by using a wide range of procedures, such as definitive surgical removal of anatomic infectious foci, percutaneous drainage and toilette of infected collections, decompression, and debridement of infected and necrotic tissue or device removal, providing for the restoration of anatomy and function. Damage control surgery may be an option in selected septic patients. Intra-abdominal infections can be classified as uncomplicated or complicated causing localized or diffuse peritonitis. Early clinical evaluation is mandatory in order to optimize diagnostic testing and establish a therapeutic plan. Prognostic scores could serve as helpful tools in medical settings for evaluating both the seriousness and future outlook of a condition. The patient's conditions and the potential progression of the disease determine when to initiate source control. Patients can be classified into three groups based on disease severity, the origin of infection, and the patient's overall physical health, as well as any existing comorbidities. In recent decades, antibiotic resistance has become a global health threat caused by inappropriate antibiotic regimens, inadequate control measures, and infection prevention. The sepsis prevention and infection control protocols combined with optimizing antibiotic administration are crucial to improve outcome and should be encouraged in surgical departments. Antibiotic and antifungal regimens in patients with IAIs should be based on the resistance epidemiology, clinical conditions, and risk for multidrug resistance (MDR) and Candida spp. infections. Several challenges still exist regarding the effectiveness, timing, and patient stratification, as well as the procedures for source control. Antibiotic choice, optimal dosing, and duration of therapy are essential to achieve the best treatment. Promoting standard of care in the management of IAIs improves clinical outcomes worldwide. Further trials and stronger evidence are required to achieve optimal management with the least morbidity in the clinical care of critically ill patients with intra-abdominal sepsis.

Prediction of postoperative complications following transanal total mesorectal excision in middle and low rectal cancer: development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model

PURPOSE

The objective of this study is to develop a nomogram for the personalized prediction of postoperative complication risks in patients with middle and low rectal cancer who are undergoing transanal total mesorectal excision (taTME). This tool aims to assist clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and in addressing preoperative risk factors to enhance surgical safety.

METHODS

In this case-control study, 207 patients diagnosed with middle and low rectal cancer and undergoing taTME between February 2018 and November 2023 at The First Affiliated Hospital of Xiamen University were included. Independent risk factors for postoperative complications were analyzed using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression and multifactorial logistic regression models. A predictive nomogram was constructed using R Studio.

RESULTS

Among the 207 patients, 57 (27.5%) experienced postoperative complications. The LASSO and multifactorial logistic regression analyses identified operation time (OR = 1.010, P = 0.007), smoking history (OR = 9.693, P < 0.001), anastomotic technique (OR = 0.260, P = 0.004), and ASA score (OR = 9.077, P = 0.051) as significant predictors. These factors were integrated into the nomogram. The model's accuracy was validated through receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, consistency indices, and decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSION

The developed nomogram, incorporating operation time, smoking history, anastomotic technique, and ASA score, effectively forecasts postoperative complication risks in taTME procedures. It is a valuable tool for clinicians to identify patients at heightened risk and initiate timely interventions, ultimately improving patient outcomes.

Predictors of emergency abdominal surgery for patients aged 90 years or older: A retrospective study

Background

With the aging of the population, more and more patients ≥90 years old are undergoing surgery. We retrospectively examined factors affecting morbidity and in-hospital mortality among patients ≥90 years old who underwent emergency abdominal operations.

Materials and methods

Forty-six cases of emergency abdominal surgery for patients ≥90 years old who underwent surgery at our hospital between 2011 and 2022 were included in this study. Factors affecting morbidity and in-hospital mortality were analyzed statistically. Physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM)-predicted morbidity and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM)-predicted mortality were calculated.

Results

Postoperative complications occurred in 30 patients (65.2 %) and 5 patients (10.8 %) died in the hospital. Factors affecting morbidity included American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score, operative time and blood loss, and operative severity score. Multivariate analysis identified male sex, operative severity score, and length of hospital stay as factors affecting morbidity. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and physiological score were identified as factors influencing mortality in hospital, and only physiological score was identified in the multivariate analysis. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for POSSUM-predicted morbidity was 0.796 and area under the ROC curve for P-POSSUM-predicted mortality was 0.805, both of which were moderately accurate.

Conclusion

Risk of emergency abdominal surgery in patients ≥90 years old may be predictable to some extent, and we are able to provide convincing explanations to patients and families based on these data.

The Evolution of Risk Assessment in Spine Surgery: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment is critically important in elective and high-risk interventions, particularly spine surgery. This narrative review describes the evolution of risk assessment from the earliest instruments focused on general surgical risk stratification, to more accurate and spine-specific risk calculators that quantified risk, to the current era of big data.

METHODS

The PubMed and SCOPUS databases were queried on October 11, 2023 using search terms to identify risk assessment tools (RATs) in spine surgery. A total of 108 manuscripts were included after screening with full-text review using the following inclusion criteria: 1) study population of adult spine surgical patients, 2) studies describing validation and subsequent performance of preoperative RATs, and 3) studies published in English.

RESULTS

Early RATs provided stratified patients into broad categories and allowed for improved communication between physicians. Subsequent risk calculators attempted to quantify risk by estimating general outcomes such as mortality, but then evolved to estimate spine-specific surgical complications. The integration of novel concepts such as invasiveness, frailty, genetic biomarkers, and sarcopenia led to the development of more sophisticated predictive models that estimate the risk of spine-specific complications and long-term outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

RATs have undergone a transformative shift from generalized risk stratification to quantitative predictive models. The next generation of tools will likely involve integration of radiographic and genetic biomarkers, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy of these models and better inform patients, surgeons, and payers.

Comparison and combination of three data sources from patient medical records to determine optimal quantification of postoperative morbidity according to the Clavien Dindo Classification and the Comprehensive Complication Index. A prospective study

INTRODUCTION

It is currently unknown which data sources from the clinical history, or combination thereof, should be evaluated to achieve the most complete calculation of postoperative complications (PC). The objectives of this study were: to analyze the morbidity and mortality of 200 consecutive patients undergoing major surgery, to determine which data sources or combination collect the maximum morbidity, and to determine the accuracy of the morbidity reflected in the discharge report.

METHODS

Observational and prospective cohort study. The sum of all PC found in the combined review of medical notes, nursing notes, and a specific form was considered the gold standard. PC were classified according to the Clavien Dindo Classification and the Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI).

RESULTS

The percentage of patients who presented PC according to the gold standard, medical notes, nursing notes and form were: 43.5%, 37.5%, 35% and 18.7% respectively. The combination of sources improved CCI agreement by 8%-40% in the overall series and 39.1-89.7 % in patients with PC. The correct recording of PC was inversely proportional to the complexity of the surgery, and the combination of sources increased the degree of agreement with the gold standard by 35 %-67.5% in operations of greater complexity. The CDC and CCI of the discharge report coincided with the gold-standard values in patients with PC by 46.8% and 18.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of data sources, particularly medical and nursing notes, considerably increases the quantification of PC in general, most notably in complex interventions.

Prognostic significance of preoperative osteosarcopenia on patient' outcomes after emergency surgery for gastrointestinal perforation

PURPOSE

Sarcopenia is a prognostic predictor in emergency surgery. However, there are no reports on the relationship between osteopenia and in-hospital mortality. This study clarified the effect of preoperative osteosarcopenia on patients with gastrointestinal perforation after emergency surgery.

METHODS

We included 216 patients with gastrointestinal perforations who underwent emergency surgery between January 2013 and December 2022. Osteopenia was evaluated by measuring the pixel density in the mid-vertebral core of the 11th thoracic vertebra. Sarcopenia was evaluated by measuring the area of the psoas muscle at the level of the third lumbar vertebra. Osteosarcopenia is defined as the combination of osteopenia and sarcopenia.

RESULTS

Osteosarcomas were identified in 42 patients. Among patients with osteosarcopenia, older and female patients and those with an American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status of ≥ 3 were significantly more common, and the body mass index, hemoglobin value, and albumin level were significantly lower in these patients than in patients without osteosarcopenia. Furthermore, the osteosarcopenia group presented with more postoperative complications than patients without osteosarcopenia (P < 0.01). In the multivariate analysis, age ≥ 74 years old (P = 0.04) and osteosarcopenia (P = 0.04) were independent and significant predictors of in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative osteosarcopenia is a risk factor of in-hospital mortality in patients with gastrointestinal perforation after emergency surgery.

Introduction to the novel model of preoperative Multi - Domain Risk Stratification (pMDRS)

Preoperative risk stratification is an important step in surgical procedures. The current scoring systems do not predict accurate overall surgical outcomes in complex comorbid patients. The novel model of preoperative multi-domain risk stratification is described in this article, which categorises patients in to three risk groups, aiming to modify the risk for optimal surgical outcomes.

Survival analysis of the surgical treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma at a tertiary care center

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a primary malignant tumor of liver epithelial cells and is the most frequent primary liver cancer. The broadening of transplantation and resectability criteria has made therapeutic decisions more complex. Our aim was to describe the clinical and survival characteristics of patients with HCC treated through resection or liver transplantation at our hospital and identify the presence of factors that enable outcome prediction and facilitate therapeutic decision-making.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with HCC that underwent surgery with curative intent at the Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla, within the time frame of 2007 and 2017, were retrospectively identified. Survival, mortality, disease-free interval, and different outcome-related variables were analyzed.

RESULTS

Ninety-six patients with a mean follow-up after surgery of 44 months were included. Overall mortality and recurrence were higher in the resection group. Mean survival was 51.4 months in the liver transplantation group and 37.5 months in the resection group, and the disease-free interval was 49.4 ± 37.2 and 27.4 ± 28.7 months, respectively (p = 0.002). The tumor burden score was statistically significant regarding risk for recurrence and specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

There appears to be no patient subgroup in whom the results of surgical resection were superior or comparable to those of transplantation. Tumor burden determination could be a useful tool for patient subclassification and help guide therapeutic decision-making.

Machine learning-based preoperative analytics for the prediction of anastomotic leakage in colorectal surgery: a swiss pilot study

BACKGROUND

Anastomotic leakage (AL), a severe complication following colorectal surgery, arises from defects at the anastomosis site. This study evaluates the feasibility of predicting AL using machine learning (ML) algorithms based on preoperative data.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data including 21 predictors from patients undergoing colorectal surgery with bowel anastomosis at four Swiss hospitals. Several ML algorithms were applied for binary classification into AL or non-AL groups, utilizing a five-fold cross-validation strategy with a 90% training and 10% validation split. Additionally, a holdout test set from an external hospital was employed to assess the models' robustness in external validation.

RESULTS

Among 1244 patients, 112 (9.0%) suffered from AL. The Random Forest model showed an AUC-ROC of 0.78 (SD: ± 0.01) on the internal test set, which significantly decreased to 0.60 (SD: ± 0.05) on the external holdout test set comprising 198 patients, including 7 (3.5%) with AL. Conversely, the Logistic Regression model demonstrated more consistent AUC-ROC values of 0.69 (SD: ± 0.01) on the internal set and 0.61 (SD: ± 0.05) on the external set. Accuracy measures for Random Forest were 0.82 (SD: ± 0.04) internally and 0.87 (SD: ± 0.08) externally, while Logistic Regression achieved accuracies of 0.81 (SD: ± 0.10) and 0.88 (SD: ± 0.15). F1 Scores for Random Forest moved from 0.58 (SD: ± 0.03) internally to 0.51 (SD: ± 0.03) externally, with Logistic Regression maintaining more stable scores of 0.53 (SD: ± 0.04) and 0.51 (SD: ± 0.02).

CONCLUSION

In this pilot study, we evaluated ML-based prediction models for AL post-colorectal surgery and identified ten patient-related risk factors associated with AL. Highlighting the need for multicenter data, external validation, and larger sample sizes, our findings emphasize the potential of ML in enhancing surgical outcomes and inform future development of a web-based application for broader clinical use.

Revisiting Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) Scores: Are They Valid in Cases of Ileal Perforation?

Introduction Ileal perforation due to typhoid is common in tropical countries, and the ensuing secondary peritonitis is treated by resuscitation and surgery. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) was developed to predict postoperative outcomes to overcome systemic obstacles in any healthcare setup and is considered fairly accurate. The Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) score was developed as a corrective scoring system for overestimations made by the POSSUM score vis-à-vis mortality. Our study aimed to examine the validity of these two scores in the postoperative prediction of surgical outcomes in patients with ileal perforation. Materials and methods An observational study involving 40 patients diagnosed with ileal perforations was undertaken over 18 months. The postoperative outcome for each patient was calculated as per the POSSUM and P-POSSUM parameters. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY) and the results were tabulated. Results We found that age, gender, respiratory dysfunction, propensity for multiple surgeries, duration of surgery, co-morbidities, underlying malignancy, and systolic blood pressure played a significant role in determining postoperative outcomes. Haemoglobin, potassium, and urea levels were also found to be significantly associated with outcome. Cardiac signs, pulse, white blood cell count, Glasgow Coma Scale score, sodium, and electrocardiography, part of the physiological score parameters, were found to be insignificant in the prediction of postoperative outcomes. Among the intraoperative parameters, peritoneal soiling was found to be insignificant. Conclusion Some parameters inherent to POSSUM and P-POSSUM calculations appear to bear no statistical significance to the final score, highlighting that these need to be revisited and perhaps modified to further simplify the calculation. The POSSUM score is an excellent predictor of postoperative morbidity and mortality in ileal perforation patients but is of questionable reliability due to its tendency to overestimate them. P-POSSUM has a better predictive power of postoperative mortality by correcting POSSUM mortality overestimation.

Head-to-Head Comparison: P-POSSUM and ACS-NSQIP® in Predicting Perioperative Risk in Robotic Surgery for Gynaecological Cancers

Purpose: In this retrospective pilot study, we aim to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the P-POSSUM and ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculators in predicting postoperative complications in gynaecological-oncological (GO) robotic surgery (RS). Methods: Retrospective data collection undertaken through a dedicated GO database and patient notes at a tertiary referral cancer centre. Following data lock with the actual post-op event/complication, the risk calculators were used to measure predictive scores for each patient. Baseline analysis of 153 patients, based on statistician advice, was undertaken to evaluate P-POSSUM and ACS-NSQIP validity and relevance in GO patients undergoing RS performed. Results: P-POSSUM reports on mortality and morbidity only; ACS-NSQIP reports some individual complications as well. ACS-NSQIP risk prediction was most accurate for venous thromboembolism (VTE) (area under the curve (AUC)-0.793) and pneumonia (AUC-0.657) and it showed 90% accuracy in prediction of five major complications (Brier score 0.01). Morbidity was much better predicted by ACS-NSQIP than by P-POSSUM (AUC-0.608 vs. AUC-0.551) with the same result in mortality prediction (Brier score 0.0000). Moreover, a statistically significant overestimation of morbidity has been shown by the P-POSSUM calculator (p = 0.018). Conclusions: Despite the limitations of this pilot study, the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator appears to be a better predictor of major complications and mortality, making it suitable for use by GO surgeons as an informed consent tool. Larger data collection and analyses are ongoing to validate this further.

Prognostic factors for gastric cancer patients aged ≥ 85 years

BACKGROUND

As gastric cancer patients aged ≥ 85 years have a short life expectancy and often die from other diseases such as pneumonia, indications for surgery are controversial. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed the prognostic factors of elderly patients with gastric cancer who are candidates for curative gastrectomy.

METHODS

Among 114 patients aged ≥ 85 years with gastric cancer at our hospital between 2010 and 2019, prognostic factors were examined using the Cox proportional hazards model in 76 patients excluding those with cStage IVB or endoscopic submucosal dissection. We also analyzed the factors of pneumonia death.

RESULTS

cStage was I/IIA/IIB/III/IVA in 37/6/14/14/5 patients, respectively. Treatment included distal gastrectomy in 28 patients, total gastrectomy in 6, local resection in 9, others in 3, and no surgery in 30. In univariate analyses of overall survival, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, physiological score of Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Onodera's prognostic nutritional index, cStage, and treatment were prognostic factors. In a multivariate analysis, POSSUM physiological score, cStage, treatment method {no surgery vs. distal gastrectomy: hazard ratio (HR) 5.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.33-14.3}, (total gastrectomy vs. distal gastrectomy: HR 4.26, 95% CI 1.22-14.9) were independent prognostic factors. In univariate analyses of pneumonia-specific survival, treatment (total gastrectomy vs. distal gastrectomy: HR 6.98, 95% CI 1.18-41.3) was the only prognostic factor.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognosis of distal gastrectomy was better than that of non-surgery even in patients aged ≥ 85 years. However, total gastrectomy was considered to be avoidable due to the high rate of postoperative pneumonia death.

Prognostic accuracy of emergency surgery score: a systematic review

PURPOSE

This systematic review aimed to summarize the literature regarding the prognostic accuracy of the emergency surgery score (ESS).

METHOD

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus were comprehensively searched by May 30, 2023. Two independent researchers performed the initial screening by reviewing the titles and abstracts of the non-duplicate records and selecting the full text of articles meeting our inclusion criteria. Finally, original studies that reported the prognostic accuracy of ESS in any emergency surgeries were included. Data from the included studies were extracted into a checklist designed based on the PRISMA guidelines. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to compare the prognostic accuracy of ESS in different settings.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. ESS performed excellently in 30-day post-op mortality (AUC 0.84-0.89) and incidence of cardiac arrest (AUC 0.86-0.88) in emergency general surgeries. The AUC of ESS in overall 30-day morbidities varied from 0.72 to 0.82 in five cohort studies. In predicting the need for ICU admission, the study with the largest sample size reported the best sensitivity of ESS at 80% and the specificity at 85%. Moreover, an outstanding accuracy was observed for the prediction of 30-day sepsis/septic shock in emergency general surgeries (AUC 0.75-0.92).

CONCLUSION

Despite the acceptable prognostic accuracy of ESS in 30-day mortality, morbidities, and in-hospital ICU admission in different emergency surgeries, the high number of required variables and the high probability of missing data highlight the need for modifications to this scoring system.

A comparison of frailty measures in population-based data for patients with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have revealed age-related inequalities in colorectal cancer care. Increasing levels of frailty in an ageing population may be contributing to this, but quantifying frailty in population-based studies is challenging.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the feasibility, validity and reliability of the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS), the Secondary Care Administrative Records Frailty (SCARF) index and the frailty syndromes (FS) measures in a national colorectal cancer cohort.

DESIGN

Retrospective population-based study using 136,008 patients with colorectal cancer treated within the English National Health Service.

METHODS

Each measure was generated in the dataset to assess their feasibility. The diagnostic codes used in each measure were compared with those in the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Validity was assessed using the prevalence of frailty and relationship with 1-year survival. The Brier score and the c-statistic were used to assess performance and discriminative ability of models with included each measure.

RESULTS

All measures demonstrated feasibility, validity and reliability. Diagnostic codes used in SCARF and CCI have considerable overlap. Prevalence of frailty determined by each differed; SCARF allocating 55.4% of the population to the lowest risk group compared with 85.1% (HFRS) and 81.2% (FS). HFRS and FS demonstrated the greatest difference in 1-year overall survival between those with the lowest and highest measured levels of frailty. Differences in model performance were marginal.

CONCLUSIONS

HFRS, SCARF and FS all have value in quantifying frailty in routine administrative health care datasets. The most suitable measure will depend on the context and requirements of each individual epidemiological study.

Preoperative nutrition therapy in people undergoing gastrointestinal surgery

BACKGROUND

Poor preoperative nutritional status has been consistently linked to an increase in postoperative complications and worse surgical outcomes. We updated a review first published in 2012.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of preoperative nutritional therapy compared to usual care in people undergoing gastrointestinal surgery.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, three other databases and two trial registries on 28 March 2023. We searched reference lists of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of people undergoing gastrointestinal surgery and receiving preoperative nutritional therapy, including parenteral nutrition, enteral nutrition or oral nutrition supplements, compared to usual care. We only included nutritional therapy that contained macronutrients (protein, carbohydrate and fat) and micronutrients, and excluded studies that evaluated single nutrients. We included studies regardless of the nutritional status of participants, that is, well-nourished participants, participants at risk of malnutrition, or mixed populations. We excluded studies in people undergoing pancreatic and liver surgery. Our primary outcomes were non-infectious complications, infectious complications and length of hospital stay. Our secondary outcomes were nutritional aspects, quality of life, change in macronutrient intake, biochemical parameters, 30-day perioperative mortality and adverse effects.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methodology. We assessed risk of bias using the RoB 1 tool and applied the GRADE criteria to assess the certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 16 RCTs reporting 19 comparisons (2164 participants). Seven studies were new for this update. Participants' ages ranged from 21 to 79 years, and 62% were men. Three RCTs used parenteral nutrition, two used enteral nutrition, eight used immune-enhancing nutrition and six used standard oral nutrition supplements. All studies included mixed groups of well-nourished and malnourished participants; they used different methods to identify malnutrition and reported this in different ways. Not all the included studies were conducted within an Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) programme, which is now current clinical practice in most hospitals undertaking GI surgery. We were concerned about risk of bias in all the studies and 14 studies were at high risk of bias due to lack of blinding. We are uncertain if parenteral nutrition has any effect on the number of participants who had a non-infectious complication (risk ratio (RR) 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36 to 1.02; 3 RCTs, 260 participants; very low-certainty evidence); infectious complication (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.80; 3 RCTs, 260 participants; very low-certainty evidence) or length of hospital stay (mean difference (MD) 5.49 days, 95% CI 0.02 to 10.96; 2 RCTs, 135 participants; very low-certainty evidence). None of the enteral nutrition studies reported non-infectious complications as an outcome. The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of enteral nutrition on the number of participants with infectious complications after surgery (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.38; 2 RCTs, 126 participants; very low-certainty evidence) or length of hospital stay (MD 5.10 days, 95% CI -1.03 to 11.23; 2 RCTs, 126 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Immune-enhancing nutrition compared to controls may result in little to no effect on the number of participants experiencing a non-infectious complication (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.00; 8 RCTs, 1020 participants; low-certainty evidence), infectious complications (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.04; 7 RCTs, 925 participants; low-certainty evidence) or length of hospital stay (MD -1.22 days, 95% CI -2.80 to 0.35; 6 RCTs, 688 participants; low-certainty evidence). Standard oral nutrition supplements may result in little to no effect on number of participants with a non-infectious complication (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.20; 5 RCTs, 473 participants; low-certainty evidence) or the length of hospital stay (MD -0.65 days, 95% CI -2.33 to 1.03; 3 RCTs, 299 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain about the effect of oral nutrition supplements on the number of participants with an infectious complication (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.27; 5 RCTs, 473 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Sensitivity analysis based on malnourished and weight-losing participants found oral nutrition supplements may result in a slight reduction in infections (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.85; 2 RCTs, 184 participants). Studies reported some secondary outcomes, but not consistently. Complications associated with central venous catheters occurred in RCTs involving parenteral nutrition. Adverse events in the enteral nutrition, immune-enhancing nutrition and standard oral nutrition supplements RCTs included nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and abdominal pain.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We were unable to determine if parenteral nutrition, enteral nutrition, immune-enhancing nutrition or standard oral nutrition supplements have any effect on the clinical outcomes due to very low-certainty evidence. There is some evidence that standard oral nutrition supplements may have no effect on complications. Sensitivity analysis showed standard oral nutrition supplements probably reduced infections in weight-losing or malnourished participants. Further high-quality multicentre research considering the ERAS programme is required and further research in low- and middle-income countries is needed.

Clinical Frailty Score is a good predictor of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing open abdomen surgery: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Open Abdomen (OA) is gaining popularity in damage control surgery (DCS) but there is not an absolute prognostic score to identify patients that may benefit from it. Our study investigates the correlation between the clinical frailty scale score (CFSS) and postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing OA.

METHODS

Patients ≥65 yo undergoing OA in two referral centres between 2015 and 2020 were included and stratified according to CFSS in non-frail (NF), frail (F) and highly-frail (HF). The primary endpoint was 30-day mortality. Secondary endpoints were postoperative morbidity and 1- year survival.

RESULTS

One hundred and thirty-six patients were included: 35 NF (25.7%), 56 F (41.2%), 45 HF (33.1%). Average age 76.8. The 73.5% of cases were non-traumatic diseases with no difference in preoperative characteristics. 95 (71.4%) had one complication, 26 NF (74.3%), 34 F (63.2%), 35 HF (77.8%) (P=0.301) and 59.4% had a complication with a CD≥3, 57.1% NF, 56.6% F and 64.4 HF. The 30-day mortality was 32.4%, higher in HF (46.7%) and F (30.4%) compared to NF (17.1%, P=0.018). The Overall 1-year survival was 41% (SE ±4) with statistically significant difference between HF vs. NF and HF vs. F (P=0.009 and P=0.029, respectively). In the univariate analysis, the only significant prognostic factor impacting mortality was CFSS, with HF having an HR of 1.948 (95% CI 1.097-3.460, P=0.023).

CONCLUSIONS

When OA is a surgical option, frail patients should not be precluded, while HF should be carefully evaluated. The CFSS might be a good prognostic score for patients that may safely benefit from OA.

Systematic development and validation of a predictive model for major postoperative complications in the Peri-operative Quality Improvement Project (PQIP) dataset

Complications are common following major surgery and are associated with increased use of healthcare resources, disability and mortality. Continued reliance on mortality estimates risks harming patients and health systems, but existing tools for predicting complications are unwieldy and inaccurate. We aimed to systematically construct an accurate pre-operative model for predicting major postoperative complications; compare its performance against existing tools; and identify sources of inaccuracy in predictive models more generally. Complete patient records from the UK Peri-operative Quality Improvement Programme dataset were analysed. Major complications were defined as Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ 2 for novel models. In a 75% train:25% test split cohort, we developed a pipeline of increasingly complex models, prioritising pre-operative predictors using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operators (LASSO). We defined the best model in the training cohort by the lowest Akaike's information criterion, balancing accuracy and simplicity. Of the 24,983 included cases, 6389 (25.6%) patients developed major complications. Potentially modifiable risk factors (pain, reduced mobility and smoking) were retained. The best-performing model was highly complex, specifying individual hospital complication rates and 11 patient covariates. This novel model showed substantially superior performance over generic and specific prediction models and scores. We have developed a novel complications model with good internal accuracy, re-prioritised predictor variables and identified hospital-level variation as an important, but overlooked, source of inaccuracy in existing tools. The complexity of the best-performing model does, however, highlight the need for a step-change in clinical risk prediction to automate the delivery of informative risk estimates in clinical systems.

Explainable Machine Learning Model to Preoperatively Predict Postoperative Complications in Inpatients With Cancer Undergoing Major Operations

PURPOSE

Preoperative prediction of postoperative complications (PCs) in inpatients with cancer is challenging. We developed an explainable machine learning (ML) model to predict PCs in a heterogenous population of inpatients with cancer undergoing same-hospitalization major operations.

METHODS

Consecutive inpatients who underwent same-hospitalization operations from December 2017 to June 2021 at a single institution were retrospectively reviewed. The ML model was developed and tested using electronic health record (EHR) data to predict 30-day PCs for patients with Clavien-Dindo grade 3 or higher (CD 3+) per the CD classification system. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC), and calibration plots. Model explanation was performed using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method at cohort and individual operation levels.

RESULTS

A total of 988 operations in 827 inpatients were included. The ML model was trained using 788 operations and tested using a holdout set of 200 operations. The CD 3+ complication rates were 28.6% and 27.5% in the training and holdout test sets, respectively. Training and holdout test sets' model performance in predicting CD 3+ complications yielded an AUROC of 0.77 and 0.73 and an AUPRC of 0.56 and 0.52, respectively. Calibration plots demonstrated good reliability. The SHAP method identified features and the contributions of the features to the risk of PCs.

CONCLUSION

We trained and tested an explainable ML model to predict the risk of developing PCs in patients with cancer. Using patient-specific EHR data, the ML model accurately discriminated the risk of developing CD 3+ complications and displayed top features at the individual operation and cohort level.

Textbook outcome in urgent early cholecystectomy for acute calculous cholecystitis: results post hoc of the S.P.Ri.M.A.C.C study

INTRODUCTION

A textbook outcome patient is one in which the operative course passes uneventful, without complications, readmission or mortality. There is a lack of publications in terms of TO on acute cholecystitis.

OBJETIVE

The objective of this study is to analyze the achievement of TO in patients with urgent early cholecystectomy (UEC) for Acute Cholecystitis. and to identify which factors are related to achieving TO.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a post hoc study of the SPRiMACC study. It´s a prospective multicenter observational study run by WSES. The criteria to define TO in urgent early cholecystectomy (TOUEC) were no 30-day mortality, no 30-day postoperative complications, no readmission within 30 days, and hospital stay ≤ 7 days (75th percentile), and full laparoscopic surgery. Patients who met all these conditions were taken as presenting a TOUEC.

OUTCOMES

1246 urgent early cholecystectomies for ACC were included. In all, 789 patients (63.3%) achieved all TOUEC parameters, while 457 (36.6%) failed to achieve one or more parameters and were considered non-TOUEC. The patients who achieved TOUEC were younger had significantly lower scores on all the risk scales analyzed. In the serological tests, TOUEC patients had lower values for in a lot of variables than non-TOUEC patients. The TOUEC group had lower rates of complicated cholecystitis. Considering operative time, a shorter duration was also associated with a higher probability of reaching TOUEC.

CONCLUSION

Knowledge of the factors that influence the TOUEC can allow us to improve our results in terms of textbook outcome.

Laparoscopic or open abdominal surgery with thoracotomy for patients with oesophageal cancer: ROMIO randomized clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated if hybrid oesophagectomy with minimally invasive gastric mobilization and thoracotomy enabled faster recovery than open surgery.

METHODS

In eight UK centres, this pragmatic RCT recruited patients for oesophagectomy to treat localized cancer. Participants were randomly allocated to hybrid or open surgery, stratified by centre and receipt of neoadjuvant treatment. Large dressings aimed to mask patients to their allocation for six days post-surgery. The authors present the intention-to-treat analysis of outcome measures from the first 3 months post-randomization, including the primary outcome, the patient-reported physical function scale of the EORTC QLQ-C30, and cost-effectiveness. Current Controlled Trials registration: ISRCTN 59036820 (feasibility study), 10386621 (definitive study).

FINDINGS

There was no evidence of a difference between hybrid (n = 267) and open (n = 266) surgery in average physical function over 3 months post-randomization: difference in means 2.1, 95% c.i. -2.0 to 6.2, P = 0.3. Complication rates were similar; for example, 88 (34%) participants in the open and 82 (32%) participants in the hybrid surgery groups experienced a pulmonary infection within 30 days. There was no evidence that hybrid surgery was more cost-effective than open surgery at 3 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient-reported physical function in the 3 months post-randomization provided no evidence of a difference in recovery time between hybrid and open surgery, or a difference in cost-effectiveness. Both approaches to surgery were completed safely, with a similar risk of key complications, suggesting that surgeons who have a preference for one of the two approaches need not change their practice.

Development and multicentre validation of the FLEX score: personalised preoperative surgical risk prediction using attention-based ICD-10 and Current Procedural Terminology set embeddings

BACKGROUND

Preoperative knowledge of surgical risks can improve perioperative care and patient outcomes. However, assessments requiring clinician examination of patients or manual chart review can be too burdensome for routine use.

METHODS

We conducted a multicentre retrospective study of 243 479 adult noncardiac surgical patients at four hospitals within the Mass General Brigham (MGB) system in the USA. We developed a machine learning method using routinely collected coding and patient characteristics data from the electronic health record which predicts 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission, discharge to long-term care, and hospital length of stay.

RESULTS

Our method, the Flexible Surgical Set Embedding (FLEX) score, achieved state-of-the-art performance to identify comorbidities that significantly contribute to the risk of each adverse outcome. The contributions of comorbidities are weighted based on patient-specific context, yielding personalised risk predictions. Understanding the significant drivers of risk of adverse outcomes for each patient can inform clinicians of potential targets for intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

FLEX utilises information from a wider range of medical diagnostic and procedural codes than previously possible and can adapt to different coding practices to accurately predict adverse postoperative outcomes.

Preoperative frailty screening in elderly patients with non-small cell lung cancer surgery: an essential step for a good surgical outcome

INTRODUCTION

Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a disease commonly diagnosed in the elderly, often in advanced stages. However, elderly patients with lung cancer can benefit from surgery, provided that postoperative risks are assessed appropriately before surgery. Frailty is a measure of age-related impaired functional status and a predictor of mortality and morbidity. However, its importance as a preoperative marker is not well defined.

AREAS COVERED

This systematic review discusses the importance of preoperative frailty screening in elderly patients with NSCLC. A literature search was performed on the MEDLINE database in June 2023, and relevant studies on frailty or preoperative assessment of NSCLC which were published between 2000 and 2023 were retained and discussed in this review.

EXPERT OPINION

Among the types of existing methods used to assess frailty those on the geriatric assessment seem to be the most appropriate; however, they are unable to fully capture the 'surgical' frailty; thus, other instruments should be developed and validated in NSCLC.

Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress scoring system for predicting complications following abdominal surgery: A meta-analysis spanning 2004 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Postoperative complications remain a paramount concern for surgeons and healthcare practitioners.

AIM

To present a comprehensive analysis of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) scoring system's efficacy in predicting postoperative complications following abdominal surgery.

METHODS

A systematic search of published studies was conducted, yielding 17 studies with pertinent data. Parameters such as preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), comprehensive risk score (CRS), postoperative complications, postoperative mortality, and other clinical data were collected for meta-analysis. Forest plots were employed for continuous and binary variables, with χ2 tests assessing heterogeneity (P value).

RESULTS

Patients experiencing complications after abdominal surgery exhibited significantly higher E-PASS scores compared to those without complications [mean difference and 95% confidence interval (CI) of PRS: 0.10 (0.05-0.15); SSS: 0.04 (0.001-0.08); CRS: 0.19 (0.07-0.31)]. Following the exclusion of low-quality studies, results remained valid with no discernible heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis indicated that variations in sample size and age may contribute to heterogeneity in CRS analysis. Binary variable meta-analysis demonstrated a correlation between high CRS and increased postoperative complication rates [odds ratio (OR) (95%CI): 3.01 (1.83-4.95)], with a significant association observed between high CRS and postoperative mortality [OR (95%CI): 15.49 (3.75-64.01)].

CONCLUSION

In summary, postoperative complications in abdominal surgery, as assessed by the E-PASS scoring system, are consistently linked to elevated PRS, SSS, and CRS scores. High CRS scores emerge as risk factors for heightened morbidity and mortality. This study establishes the accuracy of the E-PASS scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in abdominal surgery, underscoring its potential for widespread adoption in effective risk assessment.

Machine learning identifies the risk of complications after laparoscopic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Laparoscopic radical gastrectomy is widely used, and perioperative complications have become a highly concerned issue.

AIM

To develop a predictive model for complications in laparoscopic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer to better predict the likelihood of complications in gastric cancer patients within 30 days after surgery, guide perioperative treatment strategies for gastric cancer patients, and prevent serious complications.

METHODS

In total, 998 patients who underwent laparoscopic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer at 16 Chinese medical centers were included in the training group for the complication model, and 398 patients were included in the validation group. The clinicopathological data and 30-d postoperative complications of gastric cancer patients were collected. Three machine learning methods, lasso regression, random forest, and artificial neural networks, were used to construct postoperative complication prediction models for laparoscopic distal gastrectomy and laparoscopic total gastrectomy, and their prediction efficacy and accuracy were evaluated.

RESULTS

The constructed complication model, particularly the random forest model, could better predict serious complications in gastric cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic radical gastrectomy. It exhibited stable performance in external validation and is worthy of further promotion in more centers.

CONCLUSION

Using the risk factors identified in multicenter datasets, highly sensitive risk prediction models for complications following laparoscopic radical gastrectomy were established. We hope to facilitate the diagnosis and treatment of preoperative and postoperative decision-making by using these models.

The role of geriatric nutritional risk index as a predictor for postoperative outcomes in gastrointestinal emergencies

BACKGROUND

The geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) is a simple nutritional and inflammatory marker for older adults. The aim of the present study was to investigate the usefulness of the GNRI in older adults who underwent emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This study included 206 older adults who had undergone emergency gastrointestinal surgery. We retrospectively investigated the relationship between the GNRI and postoperative complications. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate risk factors for postoperative complications. We then evaluated the association between GNRI and clinical variables among older adults undergoing emergency gastrointestinal surgery.

RESULTS

Postoperatively, all complications occurred in 89 (43%) older adults, infectious in 53 (26%), and non-infectious in 36 (17%). In the multivariate analysis, age (p = 0.016), GNRI (p = 0.012), operative severity (p = 0.003), and operation time (p = 0.003) were independent risk factors for all postoperative complications. While the GNRI (p = 0.049) was an independent risk factor for infectious complications, age (p = 0.035) and bleeding volume (p = 0.035) were independent risk factors for postoperative non-infectious complications. In the low GNRI group, age (p = 0.029), serum C-reactive protein levels (p < 0.001), and proportion of sarcopenia (p < 0.001) were significantly higher, and the length of hospital stay (p < 0.001) was significantly longer than that in the high GNRI group. In Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, the skeletal mass index and the GNRI had a positive correlation (r = 0.415 and p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The GNRI may be a predictor of postoperative infectious complications in older adults after emergency gastrointestinal surgery, suggesting the usefulness of the GNRI as a nutritional marker and sarcopenia-related parameter.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

No. 22-16.

Development and validation of an interpretable Markov-embedded multilabel model for predicting risks of multiple postoperative complications among surgical inpatients: a multicenter prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

When they encounter various highly related postoperative complications, existing risk evaluation tools that focus on single or any complications are inadequate in clinical practice. This seriously hinders complication management because of the lack of a quantitative basis. An interpretable multilabel model framework that predicts multiple complications simultaneously is urgently needed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The authors included 50 325 inpatients from a large multicenter cohort (2014-2017). The authors separated patients from one hospital for external validation and randomly split the remaining patients into training and internal validation sets. A MARKov-EmbeDded (MARKED) multilabel model was proposed, and three models were trained for comparison: binary relevance, a fully connected network (FULLNET), and a deep neural network. Performance was mainly evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The authors interpreted the model using Shapley Additive Explanations. Complication-specific risk and risk source inference were provided at the individual level.

RESULTS

There were 26 292, 6574, and 17 459 inpatients in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets, respectively. For the external validation set, MARKED achieved the highest average AUC (0.818, 95% CI: 0.771-0.864) across eight outcomes [compared with binary relevance, 0.799 (0.748-0.849), FULLNET, 0.806 (0.756-0.856), and deep neural network, 0.815 (0.765-0.866)]. Specifically, the AUCs of MARKED were above 0.9 for cardiac complications [0.927 (0.894-0.960)], neurological complications [0.905 (0.870-0.941)], and mortality [0.902 (0.867-0.937)]. Serum albumin, surgical specialties, emergency case, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, age, and sex were the six most important preoperative variables. The interaction between complications contributed more than the preoperative variables, and formed a hierarchical chain of risk factors, mild complications, and severe complications.

CONCLUSION

The authors demonstrated the advantage of MARKED in terms of performance and interpretability. The authors expect that the identification of high-risk patients and the inference of the risk source for specific complications will be valuable for clinical decision-making.

Reproducibility and predictive value of three grading systems for intraoperative adverse events in a cohort of abdominal surgery

INTRODUCTION

Intraoperative adverse events (iAEs) are increasingly recognized for their impact on patient outcomes. The Kaafarani classification and Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) were developed to assess the intraoperative course; however, both have their drawbacks. ClassIntra was validated for iAEs of any origin. This study compares the Kaafarani and SAS to ClassIntra considering predictive value and interrater reliability in a cohort of abdominal surgery to support implementation of a classification in clinical practice.

METHODS

The authors made use of the LAParotomy or LAParoscopy and ADhesiolysis (LAPAD) study database of elective abdominal surgery. Detailed descriptions on iAEs were collected in real-time by a researcher. For the current research aim, all iAEs were graded according ClassIntra, Kaafarani, and SAS (score ≤4). The predictive value was assessed using univariable and multivariable linear regression and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC). Two teams graded ClassIntra and Kaafarani to assess the interrater reliability using Cohen's Kappa.

RESULTS

A total of 755 surgeries were included, in which 335 (44%) iAEs were graded according to ClassIntra, 228 (30%) to Kaafarani, and 130 (20%) to SAS. All classifications were significantly correlated to postoperative complications, with an AUROC of 0.67 (95% CI: 0.62-0.72), 0.64 (0.59-0.70), and 0.71 (0.56-0.76), respectively. For the secondary endpoint, the interrater reliability of ClassIntra with κ 0.87 (95% CI: 0.84-0.90) and Kaafarani 0.90 (95% CI: 0.87-0.93) was both strong.

CONCLUSION

ClassIntra, Kaafarani, and SAS can be used for reporting of iAEs in abdominal surgery with good predictive value for postoperative complications, with strong reliability. ClassIntra, compared with Kaafarani and SAS, included the most iAEs and has the most comprehensive definition suitable for uniform reporting of iAEs in clinical practice and research.

The Association Between Surgery and Mild Cognitive Impairment: Insight from a Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Surgery may be associated with postoperative cognitive impairment in elder participants, yet the extent of its association with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) remains undetermined.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relationship between surgery and MCI.

METHODS

The data of participants from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative were analyzed, including individuals with MCI or normal cognition. We focused on surgeries conducted after the age of 45, categorized by the number of surgeries, surgical risk, and the age at which surgeries occurred. Multivariable logistic regression was employed to determine the association between surgery and the development of MCI.

RESULTS

The study is comprised of 387 individuals with MCI and 578 cognitively normal individuals. The overall surgery exposure (adjusted OR = 1.14, [95% CI 0.83, 1.56], p = 0.43) and the number of surgeries (adjusted OR = 0.92  [0.62, 1.36], p = 0.67 for single exposure, adjusted OR = 1.12 [0.71, 1.78], p = 0.63 for two exposures, adjusted OR = 1.38 [0.95, 2.01], p = 0.09 for three or more exposures compared to no exposure as the reference) were not associated with the development of MCI. However, high-risk surgeries (adjusted OR = 1.79 [1.00, 3.21], p = 0.049) or surgeries occurring after the age of 75 (adjusted OR = 2.01 [1.03, 3.90], p = 0.041) were associated with a greater risk of developing MCI.

CONCLUSIONS

High risk surgeries occurring at an older age contribute to the development of MCI, indicating a complex of mechanistic insights for the development of postoperative cognitive impairment.

More than 30 Years of POSSUM: Are Scoring Systems Still Relevant Today for Colorectal Surgery?

BACKGROUND

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) weights the patient's individual health status and the extent of the surgical procedure to estimate the probability of postoperative complications and death of general surgery patients. The variations Portsmouth-POSSUM (P-POSSUM) and colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM) were developed for estimating mortality in patients with low perioperative risk and for patients with colorectal carcinoma, respectively. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the significance of POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM in two independent colorectal cancer cohorts undergoing surgery, with an emphasis on laparoscopic procedures.

METHODS

For each patient, an individual physiological score (PS) and operative severity score (OS) was attributed to calculate the predicted morbidity and mortality, respectively. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the possible correlation between the subscores and the probability of postoperative complications and mortality.

RESULTS

The POSSUM equation significantly overpredicted postoperative morbidity, and all three scoring systems considerably overpredicted in-hospital mortality. However, the POSSUM score identified patients at risk of anastomotic leakage, sepsis, and the need for reoperation. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated a strong correlation between the subscores and the probability of postoperative complications and mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the three scoring systems are too imprecise for the estimation of perioperative complications and mortality of patients undergoing colorectal surgery in the present day. Since the subscores proved valid, a revision of the scoring systems could increase their reliability in the clinical setting.

Pre-Interventional Risk Assessment in The Elderly (PIRATE): Development of a scoring system to predict 30-day mortality using data of the Peri-Interventional Outcome Study in the Elderly

Risk assessment before interventions in elderly patients becomes more and more vital due to an increasing number of elderly patients requiring surgery. Existing risk scores are often not tailored to marginalized groups such as patients aged 80 years or older. We aimed to develop an easy-to-use and readily applicable risk assessment tool that implements pre-interventional predictors of 30-day mortality in elderly patients (≥80 years) undergoing interventions under anesthesia. Using Cox regression analysis, we compared different sets of predictors by taking into account their ease of availability and by evaluating predictive accuracy. Coefficient estimates were utilized to set up a scoring system that was internally validated. Model building and evaluation were based on data from the Peri-Interventional Outcome Study in the Elderly (POSE), which was conducted as a European multicenter, observational prospective cohort study. Our risk assessment tool, named PIRATE, contains three predictors assessable at admission (urgency, severity and living conditions). Discriminatory power, as measured by the concordance index, was 0.75. The estimated prediction error, as measured by the Brier score, was 0.036 (covariate-free reference model: 0.043). PIRATE is an easy-to-use risk assessment tool that helps stratifying elderly patients undergoing interventions with anesthesia at increased risk of mortality. PIRATE is readily available and applies to a wide variety of settings. In particular, it covers patients needing elective or emergency surgery and undergoing in-hospital or day-case surgery. Also, it applies to all types of interventions, from minor to major. It may serve as a basis for multidisciplinary and informed shared decision-making.

Evaluation of different scoring systems in the prediction of complications, morbidity, and mortality after laparoscopic radical gastrectomy

BACKGROUND

This retrospective study aimed to assess the suitability of POSSUM and its modified versions, E-PASS and its modified score, SRS, and SORT scores for predicting postoperative complications and mortality in patients undergoing laparoscopic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data analysis was performed on 349 patients who underwent laparoscopic radical gastrectomy at Tianjin Medical University General Hospital between January 2016 and December 2021. The discriminative ability of the scoring systems was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The primary endpoint focused on the prediction of postoperative complications, while the secondary endpoint assessed the prediction of postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

Among the scoring systems evaluated, the modified E-PASS (mE-PASS) score exhibited the highest AUC (0.846) and demonstrated the highest sensitivity (81%) and specificity (79%) for predicting postoperative complications. All other scores, except for POSSUM, showed moderate discriminative ability in predicting complications. In terms of predicting postoperative mortality, the E-PASS score had the highest AUC (0.978), while the mE-PASS score displayed the highest sensitivity (76%) and specificity (90%). Notably, both E-PASS and mE-PASS scores exhibited excellent discriminative ability.

CONCLUSIONS

The P-POSSUM, O-POSSUM, E-PASS, mE-PASS, SRS, and SORT scoring systems are useful tools for predicting postoperative outcomes in laparoscopic radical gastrectomy. Among them, the mE-PASS score demonstrated the best predictive power. However, the POSSUM system could only be applicable to predict postoperative mortality.

Complication Rates and Survival of Nonagenarians after Hip Hemiarthroplasty versus Proximal Femoral Nail Antirotation for Intertrochanteric Fractures: A 15-Year Retrospective Cohort Study of 113 Cases

OBJECTIVE

Intertrochanteric fracture is a very common but serious type of hip fracture in nonagenarians. The surgical treatment remains a significant challenge for orthopedists. The objective of this study was to investigate postoperative complications and survival outcomes compared between bipolar hemiarthroplasty (HA) and proximal femoral nail anti-rotation (PFNA) in nonagenarians with intertrochanteric fractures, and to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the two surgical procedures in this patient population.

METHODS

A total of 113 consecutive nonagenarians who underwent bipolar HA or PFNA for the treatment of intertrochanteric fractures from January 2006 to August 2021 were retrospectively studied in the current paper. There were 34 males and 79 females, with a mean age of 92.2 years (range 90-101 years) at the time of operation. The average duration of follow-up was 29.7 months (range 1-120 months). The full cohort was divided into bipolar HA (77 cases) and PFNA (36 cases) groups. Damage control orthopedics was used to determine the optimal surgery time and assist in perioperative management. A restrictive blood transfusion strategy was employed, along with appropriate adjustments under multidisciplinary assessment, throughout the perioperative period. Perioperative clinical information and prognostic data were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used for survival analysis, and landmark analysis divided the entire follow-up period into 1-12 months (short-term), 13-42 months (medium-term) and 43-120 months (long-term) according to the configurations of Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

RESULTS

Both groups had similar general variables except for the proportion of high adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (aCCI) (≥6 points) (6.5% in bipolar HA group and 22.2% in PFNA group, p = 0.024). Intraoperative blood loss and transfusion requirements were greater, and the intraoperative transfusion rates were higher in the bipolar HA group compared to the PFNA group (all p < 0.05). The complications rates, 1- to 60-month cumulative all-cause mortality, postoperative optimal Harris hip score (HHS), and Barthel index (BI) presented no significant difference between the two groups (all p > 0.05). Both groups had similar overall survival curves (p = 0.37). However, landmark analysis revealed that bipolar HA group exhibited higher survival rates in medium-term (p = 0.01), while similar survival rates were observed in the short- and long-term post-operation periods (both p > 0.05). Cox regression with survival-time-dependent covariate calculated the hazard ratio (HR) of bipolar HA was 0.41 in medium-term (p = 0.039).

CONCLUSION

Bipolar HA is equally effective and reliable as PFNA for treating intertrochanteric fractures in nonagenarians. Despite resulting in more intraoperative blood loss and transfusions, bipolar HA therapy is associated with a higher medium-term survival rate compared to PFNA treatment. The application of damage control orthopedics and precise perioperative patient blood management could contribute to the positive clinical outcomes observed in this patient population.