Global, regional, and national burden of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

Efficacy of a conversational chatbot for cigarette smoking cessation: Protocol of the QuitBot full-scale randomized controlled trial

Globally, cigarette smoking results in over 8 million premature annual deaths. Addressing this issue requires high-impact, cost-effective population-level interventions for smoking cessation. Conversational chatbots offer a potential solution given the recent advancements in machine learning and large language models. Chatbots can deliver supportive, empathetic behaviors, personalized responses, and timely advice tailored to users' needs that is engaging through therapeutic conversations aimed at creating lasting social-emotional connections. Despite their promise, little is known about the efficacy and underlying mechanisms of chatbots for cigarette smoking cessation. We developed QuitBot, a quit smoking program of two to three-minute conversations covering topics ranging from motivations to quit, setting a quit date, choosing cessation medications, coping with triggers, maintaining abstinence, and recovering from a relapse. QuitBot employs conversational interactions, powered by an expert-curated large language model, allowing users to ask questions and receive personalized guidance on quitting smoking. Here, we report the design and execution of a randomized clinical trial comparing QuitBot (n = 760) against Smokefree TXT (SFT) text messaging program (n = 760), with a 12-month follow-up period. Both interventions include 42-days of content on motivations to quit, skills to cope with triggers, and relapse prevention. The key distinction between QuitBot and SFT is that QuitBot has communication and engagement features. This study aims to determine: whether QuitBot yields higher quit rates than SFT; and whether therapeutic alliance processes and engagement are mechanisms underlying cessation outcomes. Additionally, we will explore whether baseline factors including trust, social support, and demographics, moderate the efficacy of QuitBot. Trial Registration numberClinicalTrials.govNCT04308759.

Unveiling Potential Targeted Therapeutic Opportunities for Co-Overexpressed Targeting Protein for Xklp2 and Aurora-A Kinase in Lung Adenocarcinoma

Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is one of the most prevalent and leading causes of cancer deaths globally, with limited diagnostic and clinically significant therapeutic targets. Identifying the genes and processes involved in developing and progressing LUAD is crucial for developing effective targeted therapeutics and improving patient outcomes. Therefore, the study aimed to explore the RNA sequencing data of LUAD from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and gene expression profile datasets involving GSE10072, GSE31210, and GSE32863 from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases. The differential gene expression and the downstream analysis determined clinically significant biomarkers using a network-based approach. These therapeutic targets predominantly enriched the dysregulation of mitotic cell cycle regulation and revealed the co-overexpression of Aurora-A Kinase (AURKA) and Targeting Protein for Xklp2 (TPX2) with high survival risk in LUAD patients. The hydrophobic residues of the AURKA-TPX2 interaction were considered as the target site to block the autophosphorylation of AURKA during the mitotic cell cycle. The tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) dacomitinib demonstrated the strong binding potential to hinder TPX2, shielding the AURKA destabilization. This in silico study lays the foundation for repurposing targeted therapeutic options to impede the Protein-Protein Interactions (PPIs) in LUAD progression and aid in future translational investigations.

Global epidemiology and socioeconomic correlates of hypopharyngeal cancer in 2020 and its projection to 2040: findings from GLOBOCAN 2020

Background

Hypopharyngeal cancer (HC) comprises less than 5% of all malignant tumors in the head and neck. They often present at an advanced stage, thereby resulting in high mortalities. We aimed to report the epidemiology of HC globally, regionally, and nationally by age, sex, and socioeconomic status in 2020 and its projection to 2040.

Methods

Data on HC incidence and mortality were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2020. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were calculated. We used bivariate correlation test, presenting results through Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) to investigate the correlation between the metrics, human development index (HDI), and current healthcare expenditure (CHE) as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (CHE/GDP).

Results

In 2020, there were 84254 new HC cases globally (ASIR: 0.91 per 100000). Moreover, HC resulted in 38599 mortalities in 2020 (ASMR: 0.41). Furthermore, the global MIR of HC was 0.45. The ASIR and ASMR of HC were higher in men than women. Also, HDI demonstrated weak significant correlations with HC ASIR (r= 0.249, p<0.01), ASMR (r= 0.185, p<0.05), and MIR (r= 0.347, p<0.001). Moreover, a weak significant correlation was also observed between CHE/GDP and MIR (r= 0.279, p<0.001). The number of new HC cases and mortalities were estimated to increase by 50% and 55% in 2040, respectively.

Conclusion

HC is a relatively rare cancer but with a substantial sex and geographic divide in distribution. Key priorities should thus include establishing high-quality cancer registries worldwide.

High throughput and sensitive quantitation of tobacco-specific alkaloids and nitrosamines in wastewater

Tobacco-specific alkaloids and nitrosamines are important biomarkers for the estimation of tobacco use and human exposure to tobacco-specific nitrosamines that can be monitored by wastewater analysis. Thus far their analysis has used solid phase extraction, which is costly and time-consuming. In this study, we developed a direct injection liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for the quantification of two tobacco-specific alkaloids and five nitrosamines in wastewater. The method achieved excellent linearity (R2 > 0.99) for all analytes, with calibration ranging from 0.10 to 800 ng/L. Method limits of detection and quantification were 0.17 ng/L (N-nitrosonornicotine, NNN) and 1.0 ng/L (N-nitrosoanatabine (NAT) and NNN), with acceptable accuracy (100 % ± 20 %) and precision (± 15 %). Analyte loss during filtration was < 15 %, and the relative matrix effect was < 10 %. The method was applied to 43 pooled wastewater samples collected from three wastewater treatment plants in Australia between 2017 and 2021. Anabasine and anatabine were detected in all samples at concentrations of 5.0 - 33 ng/L and 12 - 41 ng/L, respectively. Three of the five tobacco-specific nitrosamines (NAT, NNN, and (4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol) (NNAL)) were detected, in < 50 % of the wastewater samples, with concentrations nearly ten times lower than the tobacco alkaloids (< 1.0 - 6.2 ng/L). In-sewer stability of the nitrosamines was also assessed in this study, with four (NAT, NNAL, NNN, and N-nitrosoanabasine (NAB)) being stable (i.e. < 20 % transformation over 12 h in both control reactor (CR) and rising main reactor (RM) and 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) being moderately stable (< 40 % loss over 12 h in RM). This direct injection method provides a high-throughput approach in simultaneous investigation of tobacco use and assessment of public exposure to tobacco-specific nitrosamines.

Conversational Chatbot for Cigarette Smoking Cessation: Results From the 11-Step User-Centered Design Development Process and Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Conversational chatbots are an emerging digital intervention for smoking cessation. No studies have reported on the entire development process of a cessation chatbot.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to report results of the user-centered design development process and randomized controlled trial for a novel and comprehensive quit smoking conversational chatbot called QuitBot.

METHODS

The 4 years of formative research for developing QuitBot followed an 11-step process: (1) specifying a conceptual model; (2) conducting content analysis of existing interventions (63 hours of intervention transcripts); (3) assessing user needs; (4) developing the chat's persona ("personality"); (5) prototyping content and persona; (6) developing full functionality; (7) programming the QuitBot; (8) conducting a diary study; (9) conducting a pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT); (10) reviewing results of the RCT; and (11) adding a free-form question and answer (QnA) function, based on user feedback from pilot RCT results. The process of adding a QnA function itself involved a three-step process: (1) generating QnA pairs, (2) fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on QnA pairs, and (3) evaluating the LLM outputs.

RESULTS

We developed a quit smoking program spanning 42 days of 2- to 3-minute conversations covering topics ranging from motivations to quit, setting a quit date, choosing Food and Drug Administration-approved cessation medications, coping with triggers, and recovering from lapses and relapses. In a pilot RCT with 96% three-month outcome data retention, QuitBot demonstrated high user engagement and promising cessation rates compared to the National Cancer Institute's SmokefreeTXT text messaging program, particularly among those who viewed all 42 days of program content: 30-day, complete-case, point prevalence abstinence rates at 3-month follow-up were 63% (39/62) for QuitBot versus 38.5% (45/117) for SmokefreeTXT (odds ratio 2.58, 95% CI 1.34-4.99; P=.005). However, Facebook Messenger intermittently blocked participants' access to QuitBot, so we transitioned from Facebook Messenger to a stand-alone smartphone app as the communication channel. Participants' frustration with QuitBot's inability to answer their open-ended questions led to us develop a core conversational feature, enabling users to ask open-ended questions about quitting cigarette smoking and for the QuitBot to respond with accurate and professional answers. To support this functionality, we developed a library of 11,000 QnA pairs on topics associated with quitting cigarette smoking. Model testing results showed that Microsoft's Azure-based QnA maker effectively handled questions that matched our library of 11,000 QnA pairs. A fine-tuned, contextualized GPT-3.5 (OpenAI) responds to questions that are not within our library of QnA pairs.

CONCLUSIONS

The development process yielded the first LLM-based quit smoking program delivered as a conversational chatbot. Iterative testing led to significant enhancements, including improvements to the delivery channel. A pivotal addition was the inclusion of a core LLM-supported conversational feature allowing users to ask open-ended questions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03585231; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03585231.

The Association Between Smoking Behavior and the Risk of Hypertension: Review of the Observational and Genetic Evidence

Background

Cigarette smoking is one of the world's largest avoidable risk factors for morbidity and mortality. Numerous studies have investigated the association between smoking and hypertension (HTN). Although observational data and cross-sectional research often exhibit a link between smoking and HTN, establishing causation remains challenging owing to potential confounding variables. Mendelian randomization (MR), a genetic epidemiological technique that employs genetic variants as instrumental variables, offers a more robust approach for evaluating causal links. This review aimed to explore both the observational and causal relationships between smoking and the risk of HTN.

Methodology

A comprehensive literature search across major electronic databases was conducted to identify relevant observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) studies on smoking and HTN risk. Various characteristics were included during study selection, such as study design, exposure assessment, and age range. Standardized processes were used for data retrieval and quality evaluation.

Results

Analysis of observational data revealed a paradoxical association between smoking and the risk of HTN, where a lower risk was observed among current smokers when compared to non-smokers. However, observational analysis also presented a dose-response effect with greater smoking intensity showed a modest linear increase in HTN risk, and older smoking initiation was associated with a slight increase in HTN risk (compared with younger). In contrast, MR-based causal estimates provide inconsistent evidence regarding the causal relationship between smoking behavior and HTN. Some MR analyses indicated a potential causal link between smoking and HTN; but this was not consistent.

Conclusion

Observational studies suggest a paradoxical association between smoking and HTN. However, MR studies do not provide sufficient evidence to establish a causal relationship. Regardless, lifestyle variables remain crucial for overall health. Healthcare professionals should regularly assess smoking status and provide counseling for quitting. Further research is needed to clarify the underlying processes, identify mediators, and evaluate the interventions.

Time trends of 16 modifiable risk factors on the burden of major cancers among the Chinese population

The cancer burden in China is increasing. We aimed to assess the time trends in the prevalence of 16 modifiable risk factors involved in lifestyle, diet, infection, and air pollution between 1997 and 2025 based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, the Global Burden of Disease website, and publically available studies. The population attributable fraction (PAF) and its 95% uncertainty interval (UI) from 2007 to 2035 were calculated to quantify the attributable cancer burden in major 12 anatomic sites using the comparative risk assessment method, considering a 10-year lag effect. As a result, 1,559,476 cancer cases (PAF = 54.1%, 95% UI: 36.8%-65.8%) from the 12 anatomic sites were attributable to these modifiable risk factors in 2007, with lung, liver, and gastric cancer raging the top three. It was predicted that by 2035, the attributable cancer cases would reach 1,680,098 (PAF = 44.2%, 95% UI: 29.1%-55.5%), with the top three of lung, liver, and colorectal cancer. Smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit consumption, HBV infection, and Helicobacter pylori infection were the most attributable risk factors in 2007, contributing to 480,352, 233,684, 215,009, 214,455, and 187,305 associated cancer cases, respectively. In 2035, the leading factors for cancer would be smoking, physical inactivity, insufficient fruit intake, HPV infection, and HBV infection, resulting in 427,445, 424,327, 185,144, 156,535, and 154,368 cancer cases, respectively. Intervention strategies should be swiftly established and dynamically altered in response to risk factors like smoking, physical inactivity, poor fruit intake, and infectious factors that may cause a high cancer burden in the Chinese population.

Unveiling an Association between Waterpipe Smoking and Bladder Cancer Risk: A Multicenter Case-Control Study in Iran

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist for the association between bladder cancers and waterpipe smoking, an emerging global public health concern.

METHODS

We used the IROPICAN database in Iran and used multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for cigarette smoking, opium use, and other confounding factors. In addition, we studied the association between exclusive waterpipe smoking and bladder cancer.

RESULTS

We analyzed 717 cases and 3,477 controls and a subset of 215 patients and 2,145 controls who did not use opium or cigarettes. Although the OR adjusted for opium, cigarettes, and other tobacco products was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-1.20], we observed a statistically significant elevated risk in exclusive waterpipe smokers (OR = 1.78; 95% CI, 1.16-2.72) compared with non-users of opium or any tobacco. Associations were strongest for smoking more than two heads/day (OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.21-4.18) and for initiating waterpipe smoking at an age less than 20 (OR = 2.73; 95% CI, 1.11-6.72). The OR for urothelial bladder cancer was higher in ex-smokers (OR = 2.35; 95% CI, 1.24-4.42) than in current smokers (OR = 1.52; 95% CI, 0.72-3.15). All observed associations were consistently higher for urothelial histology.

CONCLUSIONS

Waterpipe smoking may be associated with an increased risk of bladder cancer, notably among individuals who are not exposed to cigarette smoking and opium.

IMPACT

The study provides compelling evidence that waterpipe smoking is a confirmed human carcinogen, demanding action from policymakers. See related In the Spotlight, p. 461.

GCF2 mediates nicotine-induced cancer stemness and progression in hepatocellular carcinoma

Cigarette smoking is one of the most impactful behavior-related risk factors for multiple cancers including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Nicotine, as the principal component of tobacco, is not only responsible for smoking addiction but also a carcinogen; nevertheless, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we report that nicotine enhances HCC cancer stemness and malignant progression by upregulating the expression of GC-rich binding factor 2 (GCF2), a gene that was revealed to be upregulated in HCC and whose upregulation predicts poor prognosis, and subsequently activating the Wnt/ꞵ-catenin/SOX2 signaling pathway. We found that nicotine significantly increased GCF2 expression and that silencing of GCF2 reduced nicotine-induced cancer stemness and progression. Mechanistically, nicotine could stabilize the protein level of GCF2, and then GCF2 could robustly activate its downstream Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway. Taken together, our results thus suggest that GCF2 is a potential target for a therapeutic strategy against nicotine-promoted HCC.

Waterpipe tobacco smoking and risk of all-cause mortality: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Despite an increasing proportion of smokers who use non-cigarette products, the harmfulness of these is inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of waterpipe tobacco (WTP) smoking on all-cause mortality.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study followed up on 35 646 participants from 2007 to 2019 in Northern Viet Nam. Data for each type of cigarette and WTP smoking were collected based on demographic lifestyle and semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires. Smokers were categorized as current smokers and former smokers who were lifetime ever smokers but stopped smoking >6 months before the interview. Data on all-cause mortality (2449 deaths) were obtained from medical records at the state health facilities. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for mortality were estimated using a Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

Compared with non-smokers, ever smokers had a higher all-cause mortality risk (HR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.16-1.43). Current WTP (HR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.19-1.57), current cigarette (HR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.22-1.60) and former WTP smokers (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.10-1.76) showed an elevated risk of dying. The mortality risk was significantly elevated in dual smokers using WTP and cigarettes (HR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.35-1.79) and exclusive WTP smokers (HR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.21-1.57). Elevated risk was observed for the main targeted attractions of cancer, diabetes and heart diseases. Smoking cessation of >10 years decreased the risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.44-0.85) and cancer (HR = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.11-0.52).

CONCLUSIONS

WTP smoking increases the risk of all-cause mortality. A unique programme to control exposure to WTP should be a high priority in Viet Nam and other countries.

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Tanzania. A Narrative Review of Epidemiology and Disease Trend

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is on a rapid rise in Tanzania, driven by lifestyle modifications, nutritional changes, and increased obesity rates. This article reviews the epidemiology, and disease trends of type 2 diabetes in Tanzania and explores the economic implications and challenges in care, including policy, education, and healthcare systems.

METHODOLOGY

The study employs a narrative literature review from research articles, local healthcare reports, surveys, and public health records. It evaluates the economic impacts, healthcare capabilities, and patient behaviors in managing type 2 diabetes in Tanzania.

RESULTS

The economic burden of diabetes in Tanzania is increasing due to direct healthcare costs, lost productivity, and reduced quality of life, placing significant pressure on the already resourcelimited healthcare system. Treatment dropout rates are alarmingly high, and healthcare providers' knowledge of diabetes is insufficient. Insulin and metformin availability are critically low. Cultural norms and dietary habits pose substantial barriers to effective disease management.

CONCLUSION

The growing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Tanzania presents a significant public health crisis, necessitating comprehensive strategies for prevention, early detection, and effective disease management. Priorities should include enhancing healthcare infrastructure, increasing public investment, improving healthcare education, and tackling socio-cultural barriers to disease management.

Dietary consumption trend and its correlation with global cancer burden: A quantitative and comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of dietary consumption on cancer burden and formulate an effective solution.

METHODS

Dietary consumption, number of cancer deaths, disability-adjusted life years, and corresponding age-standardized rates were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The annual percentage change was used to quantify the temporal trends in cancer burden and dietary consumption. Age, sex, location, and sociodemographic index were stratified to further analyze the discrepancy in cancer burden attributable to dietary intake.

RESULTS

Five cancers (breast, colon and rectal, tracheal, bronchus and lung, esophageal, and stomach) were documented to be associated with dietary consumption in the Global Burden of Disease database. The age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate in 2019 were 7.56 and 1168.77 per 100 000 population, respectively. For most cancers, the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate displayed a decreasing tendency, with annual percentage change varying from -3.60 to -0.29 and from -3.64 to -0.03 from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The age-standardized death rate and age-standardized standardized disability-adjusted life years rate were higher in men than in women (9.68 vs 5.79 and 213.16 vs 129.18, respectively). In addition, the diet-related cancer burden in higher sociodemographic index regions exceeded that in lower sociodemographic index regions.

CONCLUSION

Dietary consumption has a considerable influence on cancer burden, among which colon and rectal cancer burden account for the largest proportion. Increasing the intake of whole grains, milk, fiber, calcium, vegetables, and fruits and reducing the consumption of processed meat and sodium are instrumental in lowering the disease burden of cancer. The quantitative analysis of dietary consumption would provide a more detailed reference for diet-related decision makers and raise awareness of healthy dietary habits in diet management departments, food production enterprises, and the general public.

Efficacy of nutritional supplement (Haras) on carbon monoxide levels in smokers and non-smokers: An observational study

Context

Carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations in exhaled air may impart a quick, non-invasive method to determine smoking status. Haras is a nutraceutical medication, which is slowly gaining recognition for its antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activities.

Aims

The effectiveness of the Haras therapy in smokers and non-smokers will be assessed by evaluating breath CO levels.

Methods and Materials

The study included 101 test subjects with 76 subjects of smokers and 25 subjects of non-smokers. Both the test groups were given 10 mL of Haras juice in divided doses per day for 30 days. The CO levels were evaluated using a breath analyser before drug trial and then on the 8th, 15th, 22nd and after the conclusion of the drug trial.

Statistical Analysis Used

The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare the CO and carboxyhemoglobin levels among smokers and non-smokers.

Results

Smokers had higher mean percent carboxyhemoglobin and mean parts per million CO values than non-smokers, and the difference between the two was shown to be statistically significant (P < 0.001). It was also found to be statistically significant from the first day to the eighth day, the first day to the 15th day, the first day to the 20th second day, first day to the 30th day (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Haras can be used effectively as an alternative supportive treatment for the diminution of CO levels in smokers and non-smokers.

Global burden of stomach cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2044

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the global temporal trends of stomach cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the global burden by 2044.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a comprehensive analysis based on data provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

METHODS

Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age-standardised rates of stomach cancer attributable to smoking by sociodemographic index (SDI), region, country, sex, and age were used to assess temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 by calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC). In addition, the global burden of stomach cancer attributable to smoking up to 2044 was predicted using age-period-cohort models.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2019, 17.96% of stomach cancer deaths (1.72 million) and 17.15% of stomach cancer DALYs (38.13 million) were attributable to smoking, representing an increase compared to 1990; however, smoking-attributable age-standardised rates of mortality (ASMRs) and DALYs (ASDRs) significantly declined to 2.12/100,000 and 45.82/100,000 in 2019, respectively. While stomach cancer ASMR and ASDR attributable to smoking decreased in all regions and in most countries, they increased by >10% in some countries. A positive correlation was found between SDI and age-standardised rates (rASMR = 0.28, P < 0.01; rASDR = 0.29, P < 0.01). By 2044, although global age-standardised rates for smoking-attributable stomach cancer are predicted to decline, deaths and DALYs are estimated to increase to 2.22 million and 42.14 million, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Stomach cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking have increased over the past 30 years and will continue to increase. Consequently, targeted prevention efforts and tobacco-control strategies need to be further developed and improved.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of COPD Attributable to Occupational Particulate Matter, Gases, and Fumes, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

A study aimed to estimate the burden of Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) caused by occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases, and fumes in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on the deaths number, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASDR) of COPD attributable to occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes were collected from the GBD study 2019. We also investigated the association between the ASDR and SDI.

Results

There were 517.7 thousand deaths [95% UI: 413.9 to 634.5] in 2019. The number of deaths increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASMR and ASDR were 6.61 (5.24 to 8.17) and 143.02 (118.56 to 168.69) in 2019, respectively, representing a 46% and 44.5% decrease since 1990. China had the highest number of deaths [200,748.4 (151,897.6 to 260,703.9)], while Nepal had the highest ASMR [39 (27.7 to 50)] and ASDR [724.5 (549 to 894.2)]. Males and females 75-79 and 80-84 years old had the highest number of COPD deaths. A negative correlation was observed when SDI > 0.4, whereas a positive correlation was found when SDI < 0.4.

Conclusion

From 1990 to 2019, there was an increase in the number of deaths, but a decline in ASMR and ASDR globally. Besides, there was a heterogeneous burden of COPD attributable to occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes across regions and countries. It is important to develop and implement strategies to prevent and reduce the burden of COPD attributable to occupational particulate matter, gases, and fumes.

Global burden of esophageal cancer attributable to smoking: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Epidemiological trends of esophageal cancer attributable to smoking remain unclear. This study aimed to estimate the spatiotemporal trends of the esophageal cancer burden attributable to smoking to assist in global esophageal cancer prevention and smoking cessation.

Methods

Data on esophageal cancer attributable to smoking were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The number and age-standardized rates of esophageal cancer mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) were analyzed by age, sex, and location. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the temporal trends of esophageal cancer burden attributable to smoking over 30 years.

Results

In 2019, the number of global esophageal cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to smoking was approximately 203,000 and 475 million, respectively. The global esophageal cancer deaths and DALYs due to smoking were approximately 1.5-fold increased from 1990 to 2019, but the corresponding ASMR and ASDR had decreased. The heaviest burden occurred in East Asia, Mongolia, and the middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region. The male-to-female ratio was approximately 12.7 in the esophageal cancer deaths and DALYs and was approximately 14.3 in the ASMR and ASDR. The heaviest burden appeared in the 60-74 years age group. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASMR was highly negatively associated with ASMR in 1990 (ρ = -0.41, p < 0.001) and SDI in 2019 (ρ = -0.29, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Despite reductions in ASMR and ASDR, the esophageal cancer burden attributable to smoking remains heavy, especially in middle SDI regions. Active tobacco control can reduce esophageal cancer burden.

Global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden in tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2045 based on the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The global cancer burden is substantial and spiraling. Although rehabilitation specialists could offer assistance, oncologic rehabilitation is still underutilized and not a routine part of clinical oncology guidelines worldwide. Global investigations of disease prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer are valuable for facilitating clinical practice improvement and health resource management. The objective of this study is to report the global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden of TBL cancers from 1990 to 2019 and provide predictions for 2045.

Methods

To estimate the need for rehabilitation, the data used from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to calculate the prevalence, YLDs, and the attributable risk factors of TBL cancer. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model were established to forecast the future health burden. All analyses were done at the global level and then some in the aggregation with the seven World Bank regions. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 4.2.1) and Microsoft Excel (version 2019).

Results

Globally in 2019, 3,212,307 cases of TBL cancer (95% UI 2,937,037-3,488,346) could have benefitted from rehabilitation, contributing to 544,215 (95% UI 396,134-700,099) YLDs. Over the past 30 years, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of prevalence (EAPC = 0.51) and YLDs (EAPC = 0.03) increased. Throughout this period, the global prevalence and YLDs counts were greater in males than females. The ASR of prevalence and YLDs are projected to show a slight downward trend by 2045 on the global scale, the overall prevalence and YLDs due to TBL cancer are likely to increase further, but all indicators show a growing trend in females.

Conclusion

TBL cancer remains one of the major public health issues globally. According to the forecasted results, the burden of YLDs due to TBL cancer will continue to rise, and the increment is higher in females than males. A rising number of patients worldwide will benefit from rehabilitation services in the future to achieve precise control and management throughout the TBL cancer patient lifecycle.

The global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious disease and ranks 13th among the leading causes of death worldwide. In this study, we aimed to report the burden of TB in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI).

METHODS

Annual death number, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates (ASDR) with a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of TB were derived from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 for the time period between 1990 and 2019. The association between the burden of TB and SDI was also investigated.

RESULTS

The total death number related to TB decreased by 33.6%, from 1777.5 in 1990-1179.8 in 2019, per 1000 individuals. The global ASMR and ASDR for TB were 14.64 (13.39-16.03) and 590.42 (536.85-646.42), which were 63.5% and 62.8% lower than in 1990, respectively. South Asia, Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the largest number of TB deaths in 2019. Central Sub-Saharan Africa was the region with the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2019. India had the highest number of TB deaths, and the Central African Republic and Switzerland had the highest and lowest ASMR per 100,000 individuals, respectively. The number of deaths and DALYs were higher in males than in females and the ASDR significantly increased from the 10-14-year-old age group to the 80-84-year-old age group in both sexes. Most cases of TB were caused by drug-susceptible TB. A negative association between the regional SDI and the ASDR of TB was found.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1990-2019, TB death number, ASMR, and ASDR decreased. It is important to note that, despite the decreasing burden of TB, it remains a major public health problem, especially in low SDI countries. It is necessary to design and implement suitable strategies to address the current situation.

Emerging patterns and trends in global cancer burden attributable to metabolic factors, based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

The exponential growth of the cancer burden attributable to metabolic factors deserves global attention. We investigated the trends of cancer mortality attributable to metabolic factors in 204 countries and regions between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and assessed the mortality, age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of cancers attributable to metabolic factors. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to assess the changes in the ASDR. The cancer mortality burden was evaluated according to geographic location, SDI quintiles, age, sex, and changes over time.

Results

Cancer attributable to metabolic factors contributed 865,440 (95% UI, 447,970-140,590) deaths in 2019, a 167.45% increase over 1990. In the past 30 years, the increase in the number of deaths and ASDR in lower SDI regions have been significantly higher than in higher SDI regions (from high to low SDIs: the changes in death numbers were 108.72%, 135.7%, 288.26%, 375.34%, and 288.26%, and the AAPCs were 0.42%, 0.58%, 1.51%, 2.36%, and 1.96%). Equatorial Guinea (AAPC= 5.71%), Cabo Verde (AAPC=4.54%), and Lesotho (AAPC=4.42%) had the largest increase in ASDR. Large differences were observed in the ASDRs by sex across different SDIs, and the male-to-female ratios of ASDR were 1.42, 1.50, 1.32, 0.93, and 0.86 in 2019. The core population of death in higher SDI regions is the age group of 70 years and above, and the lower SDI regions are concentrated in the age group of 50-69 years. The proportion of premature deaths in lower SDI regions is significantly higher than that in higher SDI regions (from high to low SDIs: 2%, 4%, 7%, 7%, and 9%). Gastrointestinal cancers were the core burden, accounting for 50.11% of cancer deaths attributable to metabolic factors, among which the top three cancers were tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, followed by colon and rectum cancer and breast cancer.

Conclusions

The cancer mortality burden attributable to metabolic factors is shifting from higher SDI regions to lower SDI regions. Sex differences show regional heterogeneity, with men having a significantly higher burden than women in higher SDI regions but the opposite is observed in lower SDI regions. Lower SDI regions have a heavier premature death burden. Gastrointestinal cancers are the core of the burden of cancer attributable to metabolic factors.

The Global, Regional and National Burden of Pancreatic Cancer Attributable to Smoking, 1990 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVE

Pancreatic cancer poses a serious medical problem worldwide. Studies have reported the relationship between smoking and cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to smoking and its global, regional and national trends, patterns and alterations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Global Health Data Exchange query tool, including deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Measures were stratified by sex, age, region, country/territory and sociodemographic index (SDI). We used Joinpoint regression to determine the secular trend of ASRs by calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

RESULTS

In 2019, smoking risk-related deaths and DALYs accounted for 21.3% and 21.1% of global pancreatic cancer, respectively. There were 113,384 (95% UI 98,830 to 128,466) deaths of smoking-attributable pancreatic cancer worldwide in 2019, of which 64.1% were in males. The disease burden was higher in males than in females. High-income regions or large population regions had the higher disease burden. East Asia carried the highest number of smoking-attributable pancreatic cancer deaths and DALYs. The Caribbean had the fastest increasing rate (AAPC = 3.849, 95% CI 3.310 to 4.391) of age-standardized death rate over the past 30 years. In 2019, China had the highest number of deaths, which was followed by the USA and Japan. There was a trend of increasing ASDR along with increases in SDI.

CONCLUSION

Variations existed in the smoking risk-related pancreatic cancer burden among different sexes, age groups, regions and countries/territories. The burden of smoking-attributable pancreatic cancer should be considered an important health issue. Future strategies should include comprehensive policies to control tobacco use.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019

Background

High sodium intake is a crucial risk factor for the development and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the latest global spatiotemporal patterns of CKD burden attributable to high sodium intake still remain unclear. We aimed to evaluate the level and trends of the CKD burden associated with high sodium intake according to sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI), region, and country from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on CKD burden attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The CKD-related deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) attributable to high sodium intake were estimated by age, sex, SDI, region, and country. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate the secular trends of ASMR and ASDR of CKD attributable to high sodium intake from 1990 to 2019. We further explored the associations of SDI with the ASMR and ASDR of CKD attributable to high sodium intake.

Results

Globally, the number of CKD-related deaths and DALYs attributable to high sodium intake were 45,530 (95% UI: 12,640 to 93,830) and 1.32 million (95% UI: 0.43 to 2.8) in 2019, both twice as many as those in 1990. However, the ASMR and ASDR slightly grew, with an EAPC of 0.22 (95% CI: 0.16 to 0.28) and 0.10 (95% CI: 0.04 to 0.16), respectively. The age-specific numbers and rates of deaths, as well as DALYs of CKD attributable to high sodium intake, rose with age and were greater in males than in females. The rates of deaths and DALYs peaked in the >95 age group for both females and males in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the trends of both age-specific rates of mortality and DALYs of CKD attributable to high sodium intake were down in people under 60, while in people over 60, the trends were the opposite. The burden of CKD attributable to high sodium intake in 2019 and its temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 varied greatly by SDI quintile and geographic location. The ASMR or ASDR showed a non-linear negative correlation with SDI at the regional level. The EAPC in ASMR or ASDR showed a markedly negative correlation with ASMR or ASDR in 1990, with a coefficient of -0.40. Nevertheless, the EAPC in ASMR rather than ASDR was positively correlated with SDI in 2019, with a coefficient of 0.18.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that there are significant sexual and geographic variations in the burden of CKD attributable to high sodium intake and its temporal trends. Globally, the high sodium intake-caused CKD burden continues to elevate, posing a major challenge to public health. In response to this, strengthened and tailored approaches for CKD prevention and sodium intake management are needed, especially for elderly populations, males, and the population in the middle SDI regions.