Pharmacogenomics-Driven Prediction of Antidepressant Treatment Outcomes: A Machine-Learning Approach With Multi-trial Replication

Neural activity during inhibitory control predicts suicidal ideation with machine learning

Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US and worldwide. Current strategies for preventing suicide are often focused on the identification and treatment of risk factors, especially suicidal ideation (SI). Hence, developing data-driven biomarkers of SI may be key for suicide prevention and intervention. Prior attempts at biomarker-based prediction models for SI have primarily used expensive neuroimaging technologies, yet clinically scalable and affordable biomarkers remain elusive. Here, we investigated the classification of SI using machine learning (ML) on a dataset of 76 subjects with and without SI(+/-) (n = 38 each), who completed a neuro-cognitive assessment session synchronized with electroencephalography (EEG). SI+/- groups were matched for age, sex, and mental health symptoms of depression and anxiety. EEG was recorded at rest and while subjects engaged in four cognitive tasks of inhibitory control, interference processing, working memory, and emotion bias. We parsed EEG signals in physiologically relevant theta (4-8 Hz), alpha (8-13 Hz), and beta (13-30 Hz) frequencies and performed cortical source imaging on the neural signals. These data served as SI predictors in ML models. The best ML model was obtained for beta band power during the inhibitory control (IC) task, demonstrating high sensitivity (89%), specificity (98%). Shapley explainer plots further showed top neural predictors as feedback-related power in the visual and posterior default mode networks and response-related power in the ventral attention, fronto-parietal, and sensory-motor networks. We further tested the external validity of the model in an independent clinically depressed sample (n = 35, 12 SI+) that engaged in an adaptive test version of the IC task, demonstrating 50% sensitivity and 61% specificity in this sample. Overall, the study suggests a promising, scalable EEG-based biomarker approach to predict SI that may serve as a target for risk identification and intervention.

Personalized anesthesia and precision medicine: a comprehensive review of genetic factors, artificial intelligence, and patient-specific factors

Precision medicine, characterized by the personalized integration of a patient's genetic blueprint and clinical history, represents a dynamic paradigm in healthcare evolution. The emerging field of personalized anesthesia is at the intersection of genetics and anesthesiology, where anesthetic care will be tailored to an individual's genetic make-up, comorbidities and patient-specific factors. Genomics and biomarkers can provide more accurate anesthetic protocols, while artificial intelligence can simplify anesthetic procedures and reduce anesthetic risks, and real-time monitoring tools can improve perioperative safety and efficacy. The aim of this paper is to present and summarize the applications of these related fields in anesthesiology by reviewing them, exploring the potential of advanced technologies in the implementation and development of personalized anesthesia, realizing the future integration of new technologies into clinical practice, and promoting multidisciplinary collaboration between anesthesiology and disciplines such as genomics and artificial intelligence.

Artificial Intelligence: From Buzzword to Useful Tool in Clinical Pharmacology

The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) in clinical pharmacology and drug development is akin to the dawning of a new era. Previously dismissed as merely technological hype, these approaches have emerged as promising tools in different domains, including health care, demonstrating their potential to empower clinical pharmacology decision making, revolutionize the drug development landscape, and advance patient care. Although challenges remain, the remarkable progress already made signals that the leap from hype to reality is well underway, and AI promises to offer clinical pharmacology new tools and possibilities for optimizing patient care is gradually coming to fruition. This review dives into the burgeoning world of AI and machine learning (ML), showcasing different applications of AI in clinical pharmacology and the impact of successful AI/ML implementation on drug development and/or regulatory decisions. This review also highlights recommendations for areas of opportunity in clinical pharmacology, including data analysis (e.g., handling large data sets, screening to identify important covariates, and optimizing patient population) and efficiencies (e.g., automation, translation, literature curation, and training). Realizing the benefits of AI in drug development and understanding its value will lead to the successful integration of AI tools in our clinical pharmacology and pharmacometrics armamentarium.

Does Baseline Cognitive Function Predict the Reduction Rate in HDRS-17 Total Scores in First-Episode, Drug-Naïve Patients with Major Depressive Disorder?

Purpose

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with worse cognitive functioning. We aim to examine the association between baseline cognitive functioning and the reduction rate in HDRS-17 total scores and to highlight the predictors of the reduction rate in HDRS-17 total scores in MDD with first-episode, drug-naïve (FED) patients.

Patients and Methods

Ninety FED patients were recruited consecutively and evaluated using the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS-17), the 14-item Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAMA-14), the Functioning Assessment Short Test (FAST) and the MATRICS Consensus Cognitive Battery (MCCB) at baseline and again at week 8.

Results

Eighty-four FED patients completed the study. Comparison showed that response group had significantly higher T scores in TMT-A, BACS-SC, WMS-III, BVMT-R, MSCEI and CPT-IP, but showed significantly lower scores in FAST total scores including autonomy, occupational functioning, cognitive functioning, interpersonal relationship than non- response group (all p's< 0.05). Partial correlation analysis also found that the reduction rate in HDRS-17 total scores could be negatively associated with autonomy, cognitive functioning and interpersonal relationship domains as well as total FAST scores, also was further positively associated with T-scores of BACS-SC, CPT-IP and MSCEI in MCCB, even when accounting for potential confounders. Furthermore, the levels of cognitive function domain, autonomy domain in FAST, and BACS-SC, CPT-IP in MCCB may predict the reduction rate in HDRS-17 total scores in FED patients (all p's< 0.05).

Conclusion

Our findings underscore significant correlations between baseline functioning and the reduction rate in HDRS-17 total scores in FED patients. Moreover, better baseline cognitive function, autonomy, speed of processing and attention/vigilance are more likely to predict patients' response to antidepressant treatment, indicating pre-treatment better cognitive functioning may be predictors to treatment response in FED.

Orally Administered Drugs and Their Complicated Relationship with Our Gastrointestinal Tract

Orally administered compounds represent the great majority of all pharmaceutical compounds produced for human use and are the most popular among patients since they are practical and easy to self-administer. Following ingestion, orally administered drugs begin a "perilous" journey down the gastrointestinal tract and their bioavailability is modulated by numerous factors. The gastrointestinal (GI) tract anatomy can modulate drug bioavailability and accounts for interpatient drug response heterogeneity. Furthermore, host genetics is a contributor to drug bioavailability modulation. Importantly, a component of the GI tract that has been gaining notoriety with regard to drug treatment interactions is the gut microbiota, which shares a two-way interaction with pharmaceutical compounds in that they can be influenced by and are able to influence administered drugs. Overall, orally administered drugs are a patient-friendly treatment option. However, during their journey down the GI tract, there are numerous host factors that can modulate drug bioavailability in a patient-specific manner.

Circulating Biomarkers Instead of Genotyping to Establish Metabolizer Phenotypes

Pharmacogenomics (PGx) enables personalized treatment for the prediction of drug response and to avoid adverse drug reactions. Currently, PGx mainly relies on the genetic information of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) targets such as drug-metabolizing enzymes or transporters to predict differences in the patient's phenotype. However, there is evidence that the phenotype-genotype concordance is limited. Thus, we discuss different phenotyping strategies using exogenous xenobiotics (e.g., drug cocktails) or endogenous compounds for phenotype prediction. In particular, minimally invasive approaches focusing on liquid biopsies offer great potential to preemptively determine metabolic and transport capacities. Early studies indicate that ADME phenotyping using exosomes released from the liver is reliable. In addition, pharmacometric modeling and artificial intelligence improve phenotype prediction. However, further prospective studies are needed to demonstrate the clinical utility of individualized treatment based on phenotyping strategies, not only relying on genetics. The present review summarizes current knowledge and limitations.

Predicting non-improvement of symptoms in daily mental healthcare practice using routinely collected patient-level data: a machine learning approach

Objectives

Anxiety and mood disorders greatly affect the quality of life for individuals worldwide. A substantial proportion of patients do not sufficiently improve during evidence-based treatments in mental healthcare. It remains challenging to predict which patients will or will not benefit. Moreover, the limited research available on predictors of treatment outcomes comes from efficacy RCTs with strict selection criteria which may limit generalizability to a real-world context. The current study evaluates the performance of different machine learning (ML) models in predicting non-improvement in an observational sample of patients treated in routine specialized mental healthcare.

Methods

In the current longitudinal exploratory prediction study diagnosis-related, sociodemographic, clinical and routinely collected patient-reported quantitative outcome measures were acquired during treatment as usual of 755 patients with a primary anxiety, depressive, obsessive compulsive or trauma-related disorder in a specialized outpatient mental healthcare center. ML algorithms were trained to predict non-response (< 0.5 standard deviation improvement) in symptomatic distress 6 months after baseline. Different models were trained, including models with and without early change scores in psychopathology and well-being and models with a trimmed set of predictor variables. Performance of trained models was evaluated in a hold-out sample (30%) as a proxy for unseen data.

Results

ML models without early change scores performed poorly in predicting six-month non-response in the hold-out sample with Area Under the Curves (AUCs) < 0.63. Including early change scores slightly improved the models' performance (AUC range: 0.68-0.73). Computationally-intensive ML models did not significantly outperform logistic regression (AUC: 0.69). Reduced prediction models performed similar to the full prediction models in both the models without (AUC: 0.58-0.62 vs. 0.58-0.63) and models with early change scores (AUC: 0.69-0.73 vs. 0.68-0.71). Across different ML algorithms, early change scores in psychopathology and well-being consistently emerged as important predictors for non-improvement.

Conclusion

Accurately predicting treatment outcomes in a mental healthcare context remains challenging. While advanced ML algorithms offer flexibility, they showed limited additional value compared to traditional logistic regression in this study. The current study confirmed the importance of taking early change scores in both psychopathology and well-being into account for predicting longer-term outcomes in symptomatic distress.

The Coming of Age of AI/ML in Drug Discovery, Development, Clinical Testing, and Manufacturing: The FDA Perspectives

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) represent significant advancements in computing, building on technologies that humanity has developed over millions of years-from the abacus to quantum computers. These tools have reached a pivotal moment in their development. In 2021 alone, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) received over 100 product registration submissions that heavily relied on AI/ML for applications such as monitoring and improving human performance in compiling dossiers. To ensure the safe and effective use of AI/ML in drug discovery and manufacturing, the FDA and numerous other U.S. federal agencies have issued continuously updated, stringent guidelines. Intriguingly, these guidelines are often generated or updated with the aid of AI/ML tools themselves. The overarching goal is to expedite drug discovery, enhance the safety profiles of existing drugs, introduce novel treatment modalities, and improve manufacturing compliance and robustness. Recent FDA publications offer an encouraging outlook on the potential of these tools, emphasizing the need for their careful deployment. This has expanded market opportunities for retraining personnel handling these technologies and enabled innovative applications in emerging therapies such as gene editing, CRISPR-Cas9, CAR-T cells, mRNA-based treatments, and personalized medicine. In summary, the maturation of AI/ML technologies is a testament to human ingenuity. Far from being autonomous entities, these are tools created by and for humans designed to solve complex problems now and in the future. This paper aims to present the status of these technologies, along with examples of their present and future applications.

Pharmacomicrobiomics of Antidepressants in Depression: A Systematic Review

This systematic review evaluated the animal and human evidence for pharmacomicrobiomics (PMx) interactions of antidepressant medications. Studies of gut microbiota effects on functional and behavioral effects of antidepressants in human and animal models were identified from PubMed up to December 2022. Risk of bias was assessed, and results are presented as a systematic review following PRISMA guidelines. A total of 28 (21 animal, 7 human) studies were included in the review. The reviewed papers converged on three themes: (1) Antidepressants can alter the composition and metabolites of gut microbiota, (2) gut microbiota can alter the bioavailability of certain antidepressants, and (3) gut microbiota may modulate the clinical or modeled mood modifying effects of antidepressants. The majority (n = 22) of studies had at least moderate levels of bias present. While strong evidence is still lacking to understand the clinical role of antidepressant PMx in human health, there is evidence for interactions among antidepressants, microbiota changes, microbiota metabolite changes, and behavior. Well-controlled studies of the mediating and moderating effects of baseline and treatment-emergent changes in microbiota on therapeutic and adverse responses to antidepressants are needed to better establish a potential role of PMx in personalizing antidepressant treatment selection and response prediction.

Multimodal predictions of treatment outcome in major depression: A comparison of data-driven predictors with importance ratings by clinicians

BACKGROUND

Reliable prediction models of treatment outcome in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are currently lacking in clinical practice. Data-driven outcome definitions, combining data from multiple modalities and incorporating clinician expertise might improve predictions.

METHODS

We used unsupervised machine learning to identify treatment outcome classes in 1060 MDD inpatients. Subsequently, classification models were created on clinical and biological baseline information to predict treatment outcome classes and compared to the performance of two widely used classical outcome definitions. We also related the findings to results from an online survey that assessed which information clinicians use for outcome prognosis.

RESULTS

Three and four outcome classes were identified by unsupervised learning. However, data-driven outcome classes did not result in more accurate prediction models. The best prediction model was targeting treatment response in its standard definition and reached accuracies of 63.9 % in the test sample, and 59.5 % and 56.9 % in the validation samples. Top predictors included sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, while biological parameters did not improve prediction accuracies. Treatment history, personality factors, prior course of the disorder, and patient attitude towards treatment were ranked as most important indicators by clinicians.

LIMITATIONS

Missing data limited the power to identify biological predictors of treatment outcome from certain modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

So far, the inclusion of available biological measures in addition to psychometric and clinical information did not improve predictive value of the models, which was overall low. Optimized biomarkers, stratified predictions and the inclusion of clinical expertise may improve future prediction models.

Promises and challenges in pharmacoepigenetics

Pharmacogenetics, the study of how interindividual genetic differences affect drug response, does not explain all observed heritable variance in drug response. Epigenetic mechanisms, such as DNA methylation, and histone acetylation may account for some of the unexplained variances. Epigenetic mechanisms modulate gene expression and can be suitable drug targets and can impact the action of nonepigenetic drugs. Pharmacoepigenetics is the field that studies the relationship between epigenetic variability and drug response. Much of this research focuses on compounds targeting epigenetic mechanisms, called epigenetic drugs, which are used to treat cancers, immune disorders, and other diseases. Several studies also suggest an epigenetic role in classical drug response; however, we know little about this area. The amount of information correlating epigenetic biomarkers to molecular datasets has recently expanded due to technological advances, and novel computational approaches have emerged to better identify and predict epigenetic interactions. We propose that the relationship between epigenetics and classical drug response may be examined using data already available by (1) finding regions of epigenetic variance, (2) pinpointing key epigenetic biomarkers within these regions, and (3) mapping these biomarkers to a drug-response phenotype. This approach expands on existing knowledge to generate putative pharmacoepigenetic relationships, which can be tested experimentally. Epigenetic modifications are involved in disease and drug response. Therefore, understanding how epigenetic drivers impact the response to classical drugs is important for improving drug design and administration to better treat disease.

Machine Learning and Pharmacogenomics at the Time of Precision Psychiatry

Traditional medicine and biomedical sciences are reaching a turning point because of the constantly growing impact and volume of Big Data. Machine Learning (ML) techniques and related algorithms play a central role as diagnostic, prognostic, and decision-making tools in this field. Another promising area becoming part of everyday clinical practice is personalized therapy and pharmacogenomics. Applying ML to pharmacogenomics opens new frontiers to tailored therapeutical strategies to help clinicians choose drugs with the best response and fewer side effects, operating with genetic information and combining it with the clinical profile. This systematic review aims to draw up the state-of-the-art ML applied to pharmacogenomics in psychiatry. Our research yielded fourteen papers; most were published in the last three years. The sample comprises 9,180 patients diagnosed with mood disorders, psychoses, or autism spectrum disorders. Prediction of drug response and prediction of side effects are the most frequently considered domains with the supervised ML technique, which first requires training and then testing. The random forest is the most used algorithm; it comprises several decision trees, reduces the training set's overfitting, and makes precise predictions. ML proved effective and reliable, especially when genetic and biodemographic information were integrated into the algorithm. Even though ML and pharmacogenomics are not part of everyday clinical practice yet, they will gain a unique role in the next future in improving personalized treatments in psychiatry.

Integrated Module of Multidimensional Omics for Peripheral Biomarkers (iMORE) in patients with major depressive disorder: rationale and design of a prospective multicentre cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Major depressive disorder (MDD) represents a worldwide burden on healthcare and the response to antidepressants remains limited. Systems biology approaches have been used to explore the precision therapy. However, no reliable biomarker clinically exists for prognostic prediction at present. The objectives of the Integrated Module of Multidimensional Omics for Peripheral Biomarkers (iMORE) study are to predict the efficacy of antidepressants by integrating multidimensional omics and performing validation in a real-world setting. As secondary aims, a series of potential biomarkers are explored for biological subtypes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

iMore is an observational cohort study in patients with MDD with a multistage design in China. The study is performed by three mental health centres comprising an observation phase and a validation phase. A total of 200 patients with MDD and 100 healthy controls were enrolled. The protocol-specified antidepressants are selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors. Clinical visits (baseline, 4 and 8 weeks) include psychiatric rating scales for symptom assessment and biospecimen collection for multiomics analysis. Participants are divided into responders and non-responders based on treatment response (>50% reduction in Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale). Antidepressants' responses are predicted and biomarkers are explored using supervised learning approach by integration of metabolites, cytokines, gut microbiomes and immunophenotypic cells. The accuracy of the prediction models constructed is verified in an independent validation phase.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the ethics committee of Shanghai Mental Health Center (approval number 2020-87). All participants need to sign a written consent for the study entry. Study findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04518592.

Network science approach elucidates integrative genomic-metabolomic signature of antidepressant response and lifetime history of attempted suicide in adults with major depressive disorder

Background: Individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) and a lifetime history of attempted suicide demonstrate lower antidepressant response rates than those without a prior suicide attempt. Identifying biomarkers of antidepressant response and lifetime history of attempted suicide may help augment pharmacotherapy selection and improve the objectivity of suicide risk assessments. Towards this goal, this study sought to use network science approaches to establish a multi-omics (genomic and metabolomic) signature of antidepressant response and lifetime history of attempted suicide in adults with MDD. Methods: Single nucleotide variants (SNVs) which associated with suicide attempt(s) in the literature were identified and then integrated with a) p180-assayed metabolites collected prior to antidepressant pharmacotherapy and b) a binary measure of antidepressant response at 8 weeks of treatment using penalized regression-based networks in 245 'Pharmacogenomics Research Network Antidepressant Medication Study (PGRN-AMPS)' and 103 'Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcomes (CO-MED)' patients with major depressive disorder. This approach enabled characterization and comparison of biological profiles and associated antidepressant treatment outcomes of those with (N = 46) and without (N = 302) a self-reported lifetime history of suicide attempt. Results: 351 SNVs were associated with suicide attempt(s) in the literature. Intronic SNVs in the circadian genes CLOCK and ARNTL (encoding the CLOCK:BMAL1 heterodimer) were amongst the top network analysis features to differentiate patients with and without a prior suicide attempt. CLOCK and ARNTL differed in their correlations with plasma phosphatidylcholines, kynurenine, amino acids, and carnitines between groups. CLOCK and ARNTL-associated phosphatidylcholines showed a positive correlation with antidepressant response in individuals without a prior suicide attempt which was not observed in the group with a prior suicide attempt. Conclusion: Results provide evidence for a disturbance between CLOCK:BMAL1 circadian processes and circulating phosphatidylcholines, kynurenine, amino acids, and carnitines in individuals with MDD who have attempted suicide. This disturbance may provide mechanistic insights for differential antidepressant pharmacotherapy outcomes between patients with MDD with versus without a lifetime history of attempted suicide. Future investigations of CLOCK:BMAL1 metabolic regulation in the context of suicide attempts may help move towards biologically-augmented pharmacotherapy selection and stratification of suicide risk for subgroups of patients with MDD and a lifetime history of attempted suicide.

Challenges and opportunities associated with rare-variant pharmacogenomics

Recent advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS) have resulted in the identification of tens of thousands of rare pharmacogenetic variations with unknown functional effects. However, although such pharmacogenetic variations have been estimated to account for a considerable amount of the heritable variability in drug response and toxicity, accurate interpretation at the level of the individual patient remains challenging. We discuss emerging strategies and concepts to close this translational gap. We illustrate how massively parallel experimental assays, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning can synergize with population-scale biobank projects to facilitate the interpretation of NGS data to individualize clinical decision-making and personalized medicine.

Causal machine learning for healthcare and precision medicine

Causal machine learning (CML) has experienced increasing popularity in healthcare. Beyond the inherent capabilities of adding domain knowledge into learning systems, CML provides a complete toolset for investigating how a system would react to an intervention (e.g. outcome given a treatment). Quantifying effects of interventions allows actionable decisions to be made while maintaining robustness in the presence of confounders. Here, we explore how causal inference can be incorporated into different aspects of clinical decision support systems by using recent advances in machine learning. Throughout this paper, we use Alzheimer's disease to create examples for illustrating how CML can be advantageous in clinical scenarios. Furthermore, we discuss important challenges present in healthcare applications such as processing high-dimensional and unstructured data, generalization to out-of-distribution samples and temporal relationships, that despite the great effort from the research community remain to be solved. Finally, we review lines of research within causal representation learning, causal discovery and causal reasoning which offer the potential towards addressing the aforementioned challenges.

Creating sparser prediction models of treatment outcome in depression: a proof-of-concept study using simultaneous feature selection and hyperparameter tuning

Background

Predicting treatment outcome in major depressive disorder (MDD) remains an essential challenge for precision psychiatry. Clinical prediction models (CPMs) based on supervised machine learning have been a promising approach for this endeavor. However, only few CPMs have focused on model sparsity even though sparser models might facilitate the translation into clinical practice and lower the expenses of their application.

Methods

In this study, we developed a predictive modeling pipeline that combines hyperparameter tuning and recursive feature elimination in a nested cross-validation framework. We applied this pipeline to a real-world clinical data set on MDD treatment response and to a second simulated data set using three different classification algorithms. Performance was evaluated by permutation testing and comparison to a reference pipeline without nested feature selection.

Results

Across all models, the proposed pipeline led to sparser CPMs compared to the reference pipeline. Except for one comparison, the proposed pipeline resulted in equally or more accurate predictions. For MDD treatment response, balanced accuracy scores ranged between 61 and 71% when models were applied to hold-out validation data.

Conclusions

The resulting models might be particularly interesting for clinical applications as they could reduce expenses for clinical institutions and stress for patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01926-2.

The pharmacogenomics of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors

Antidepressant medications are frequently used as the first line of treatment for depression. However, their effectiveness is highly variable and influenced by genetic factors. Recently, pharmacogenetic studies, including candidate-gene, genome-wide association studies or polygenic risk scores, have attempted to uncover the genetic architecture of antidepressant response. Genetic variants in at least 27 genes are linked to antidepressant treatment response in both coding and non-coding genomic regions, but evidence is largely inconclusive due to the high polygenicity of the trait and limited cohort sizes in published studies. Future studies should increase the number and diversity of participants to yield sufficient statistical power to characterize the genetic underpinnings and biological mechanisms of treatment response, improve results generalizability and reduce racial health-related inequities.

Toward Individualized Prediction of Response to Methotrexate in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Pharmacogenomics-Driven Machine Learning Approach

OBJECTIVE

To test the ability of machine learning (ML) approaches with clinical and genomic biomarkers to predict methotrexate treatment response in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

Demographic, clinical, and genomic data from 643 patients of European ancestry with early RA (mean age 54 years; 70% female) subdivided into a training (n = 336) and validation cohort (n = 307) were used. The genomic data comprised 160 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with RA or methotrexate metabolism. Response to methotrexate monotherapy was defined as good or moderate by the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) response criteria at the 3-month follow-up. Supervised ML methods were trained with 5 repeats and 10-fold cross-validation using the training cohort. Prediction performance was validated in the independent validation cohort.

RESULTS

Supervised ML methods combining age, sex, smoking, rheumatoid factor, baseline Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) scores and 160 SNPs predicted EULAR response at 3 months with the area under the receiver operating curve of 0.84 (P = 0.05) in the training cohort and achieved a prediction accuracy of 76% (P = 0.05) in the validation cohort (sensitivity 72%, specificity 77%). Intergenic SNPs rs12446816, rs13385025, rs113798271, and ATIC (rs2372536) had variable importance above 60.0 and along with baseline DAS28 scores were among the top predictors of methotrexate response.

CONCLUSION

Pharmacogenomic biomarkers combined with baseline DAS28 scores can be useful in predicting response to methotrexate in patients with early RA. Applying ML to predict treatment response holds promise for guiding effective RA treatment choices, including timely escalation of RA therapies.

Implementation of preemptive DNA sequence-based pharmacogenomics testing across a large academic medical center: The Mayo-Baylor RIGHT 10K Study

PURPOSE

The Mayo-Baylor RIGHT 10K Study enabled preemptive, sequence-based pharmacogenomics (PGx)-driven drug prescribing practices in routine clinical care within a large cohort. We also generated the tools and resources necessary for clinical PGx implementation and identified challenges that need to be overcome. Furthermore, we measured the frequency of both common genetic variation for which clinical guidelines already exist and rare variation that could be detected by DNA sequencing, rather than genotyping.

METHODS

Targeted oligonucleotide-capture sequencing of 77 pharmacogenes was performed using DNA from 10,077 consented Mayo Clinic Biobank volunteers. The resulting predicted drug response-related phenotypes for 13 genes, including CYP2D6 and HLA, affecting 21 drug-gene pairs, were deposited preemptively in the Mayo electronic health record.

RESULTS

For the 13 pharmacogenes of interest, the genomes of 79% of participants carried clinically actionable variants in 3 or more genes, and DNA sequencing identified an average of 3.3 additional conservatively predicted deleterious variants that would not have been evident using genotyping.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of preemptive rather than reactive and sequence-based rather than genotype-based PGx prescribing revealed nearly universal patient applicability and required integrated institution-wide resources to fully realize individualized drug therapy and to show more efficient use of health care resources.

Introduction to Machine Learning in Obstetrics and Gynecology

In the digital age of the 21st century, we have witnessed an explosion in data matched by remarkable progress in the field of computer science and engineering, with the development of powerful and portable artificial intelligence-powered technologies. At the same time, global connectivity powered by mobile technology has led to an increasing number of connected users and connected devices. In just the past 5 years, the convergence of these technologies in obstetrics and gynecology has resulted in the development of innovative artificial intelligence-powered digital health devices that allow easy and accurate patient risk stratification for an array of conditions spanning early pregnancy, labor and delivery, and care of the newborn. Yet, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and other new and emerging technologies currently have a slow adoption rate in medicine, despite the availability of large data sets that include individual electronic health records spanning years of care, genomics, and the microbiome. As a result, patient interactions with health care remain burdened by antiquated processes that are inefficient and inconvenient. A few health care institutions have recognized these gaps and, with an influx of venture capital investments, are now making in-roads in medical practice with digital products driven by artificial intelligence algorithms. In this article, we trace the history, applications, and ethical challenges of the artificial intelligence that will be at the forefront of digitally transforming obstetrics and gynecology and medical practice in general.

Multi-Omics Characterization of Early- and Adult-Onset Major Depressive Disorder

Age at depressive onset (AAO) corresponds to unique symptomatology and clinical outcomes. Integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with additional “omic” measures to evaluate AAO has not been reported and may reveal novel markers of susceptibility and/or resistance to major depressive disorder (MDD). To address this gap, we integrated genomics with metabolomics using data-driven network analysis to characterize and differentiate MDD based on AAO. This study first performed two GWAS for AAO as a continuous trait in (a) 486 adults from the Pharmacogenomic Research Network-Antidepressant Medication Pharmacogenomic Study (PGRN-AMPS), and (b) 295 adults from the Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcomes (CO-MED) study. Variants from top signals were integrated with 153 p180-assayed metabolites to establish multi-omics network characterizations of early (<age 18) and adult-onset depression. The most significant variant (p = 8.77 × 10−8) localized to an intron of SAMD3. In silico functional annotation of top signals (p < 1 × 10−5) demonstrated gene expression enrichment in the brain and during embryonic development. Network analysis identified differential associations between four variants (in/near INTU, FAT1, CNTN6, and TM9SF2) and plasma metabolites (phosphatidylcholines, carnitines, biogenic amines, and amino acids) in early- compared with adult-onset MDD. Multi-omics integration identified differential biosignatures of early- and adult-onset MDD. These biosignatures call for future studies to follow participants from childhood through adulthood and collect repeated -omics and neuroimaging measures to validate and deeply characterize the biomarkers of susceptibility and/or resistance to MDD development.

Rapid-acting antidepressants and the circadian clock

A growing number of epidemiological and experimental studies has established that circadian disruption is strongly associated with psychiatric disorders, including major depressive disorder (MDD). This association is becoming increasingly relevant considering that modern lifestyles, social zeitgebers (time cues) and genetic variants contribute to disrupting circadian rhythms that may lead to psychiatric disorders. Circadian abnormalities associated with MDD include dysregulated rhythms of sleep, temperature, hormonal secretions, and mood which are modulated by the molecular clock. Rapid-acting antidepressants such as subanesthetic ketamine and sleep deprivation therapy can improve symptoms within 24 h in a subset of depressed patients, in striking contrast to conventional treatments, which generally require weeks for a full clinical response. Importantly, animal data show that sleep deprivation and ketamine have overlapping effects on clock gene expression. Furthermore, emerging data implicate the circadian system as a critical component involved in rapid antidepressant responses via several intracellular signaling pathways such as GSK3β, mTOR, MAPK, and NOTCH to initiate synaptic plasticity. Future research on the relationship between depression and the circadian clock may contribute to the development of novel therapeutic strategies for depression-like symptoms. In this review we summarize recent evidence describing: (1) how the circadian clock is implicated in depression, (2) how clock genes may contribute to fast-acting antidepressants, and (3) the mechanistic links between the clock genes driving circadian rhythms and neuroplasticity.

From Pharmacogenetics to Pharmaco-Omics:Milestones and Future Directions

The origins of pharmacogenetics date back to the 1950s, when it was established that inter-individual differences in drug response are partially determined by genetic factors. Since then, pharmacogenetics has grown into its own field, motivated by the translation of identified gene-drug interactions into therapeutic applications. Despite numerous challenges ahead, our understanding of the human pharmacogenetic landscape has greatly improved thanks to the integration of tools originating from disciplines as diverse as biochemistry, molecular biology, statistics, and computer sciences. In this review, we discuss past, present, and future developments of pharmacogenetics methodology, focusing on three milestones: how early research established the genetic basis of drug responses, how technological progress made it possible to assess the full extent of pharmacological variants, and how multi-dimensional omics datasets can improve the identification, functional validation, and mechanistic understanding of the interplay between genes and drugs. We outline novel strategies to repurpose and integrate molecular and clinical data originating from biobanks to gain insights analogous to those obtained from randomized controlled trials. Emphasizing the importance of increased diversity, we envision future directions for the field that should pave the way to the clinical implementation of pharmacogenetics.

Machine learning in the prediction of depression treatment outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple treatments are effective for major depressive disorder (MDD), but the outcomes of each treatment vary broadly among individuals. Accurate prediction of outcomes is needed to help select a treatment that is likely to work for a given person. We aim to examine the performance of machine learning methods in delivering replicable predictions of treatment outcomes.

METHODS

Of 7732 non-duplicate records identified through literature search, we retained 59 eligible reports and extracted data on sample, treatment, predictors, machine learning method, and treatment outcome prediction. A minimum sample size of 100 and an adequate validation method were used to identify adequate-quality studies. The effects of study features on prediction accuracy were tested with mixed-effects models. Fifty-four of the studies provided accuracy estimates or other estimates that allowed calculation of balanced accuracy of predicting outcomes of treatment.

RESULTS

Eight adequate-quality studies reported a mean accuracy of 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.71], which was significantly lower than a mean accuracy of 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78) in the other 46 studies. Among the adequate-quality studies, accuracies were higher when predicting treatment resistance (0.69) and lower when predicting remission (0.60) or response (0.56). The choice of machine learning method, feature selection, and the ratio of features to individuals were not associated with reported accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative relationship between study quality and prediction accuracy, combined with a lack of independent replication, invites caution when evaluating the potential of machine learning applications for personalizing the treatment of depression.

Machine Learning and Deep Learning for the Pharmacogenomics of Antidepressant Treatments

A growing body of evidence now proposes that machine learning and deep learning techniques can serve as a vital foundation for the pharmacogenomics of antidepressant treatments in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). In this review, we focus on the latest developments for pharmacogenomics research using machine learning and deep learning approaches together with neuroimaging and multi-omics data. First, we review relevant pharmacogenomics studies that leverage numerous machine learning and deep learning techniques to determine treatment prediction and potential biomarkers for antidepressant treatments in MDD. In addition, we depict some neuroimaging pharmacogenomics studies that utilize various machine learning approaches to predict antidepressant treatment outcomes in MDD based on the integration of research on pharmacogenomics and neuroimaging. Moreover, we summarize the limitations in regard to the past pharmacogenomics studies of antidepressant treatments in MDD. Finally, we outline a discussion of challenges and directions for future research. In light of latest advancements in neuroimaging and multi-omics, various genomic variants and biomarkers associated with antidepressant treatments in MDD are being identified in pharmacogenomics research by employing machine learning and deep learning algorithms.

Effectiveness of common antidepressants: a post market release study

BACKGROUND

This study summarizes the experiences of patients, who have multiple comorbidities, with 15 mono-treated antidepressants.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, observational, matched case control study. The cohort was organized using claims data available through OptumLabs for depressed patients treated with antidepressants between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2018. The cohort included patients from all states within United States of America. The analysis focused on 3,678,082 patients with major depression who had 10,221,145 antidepressant treatments. Using the robust, and large predictors of remission, and propensity to prescribe an antidepressant, the study created 16,770 subgroups of patients. The study reports the remission rate for the antidepressants within the subgroups. The overall impact of antidepressant on remission was calculated as the common odds ratio across the strata.

FINDINGS

The study accurately modelled clinicians' prescription patterns (cross-validated Area under the Receiver Operating Curve, AROC, of 82.0%, varied from 77% to 90%) and patients' remission (cross-validated AROC of 72.0%, varied from 69.5% to 78%). In different strata, contrary to published randomized studies, remission rates differed significantly and antidepressants were not equally effective. For example, in age and gender subgroups, the best antidepressant had an average remission rate of 50.78%, 1.5 times higher than the average antidepressant (30.30% remission rate) and 20 times higher than the worst antidepressant. The Breslow-Day chi-square test for homogeneity showed that across strata a homogenous common odds-ratio did not exist (alpha<0.0001). Therefore, the choice of the optimal antidepressant depended on the strata defined by the patient's medical history.

INTERPRETATION

Study findings may not be appropriate for specific patients. To help clinicians assess the transferability of study findings to specific patient, the web site http://hi.gmu.edu/ad assesses the patient's medical history, finds similar cases in our data, and recommends an antidepressant based on the experience of remission in our data. Patients can share this site's recommendations with their clinicians, who can then assess the appropriateness of the recommendations.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson foundation grant #76786. The development of related web site was supported by grant 247-02-20 from Virginia's Commonwealth Health Research Board.

Recent applications of quantitative systems pharmacology and machine learning models across diseases

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a quantitative and mechanistic platform describing the phenotypic interaction between drugs, biological networks, and disease conditions to predict optimal therapeutic response. In this meta-analysis study, we review the utility of the QSP platform in drug development and therapeutic strategies based on recent publications (2019-2021). We gathered recent original QSP models and described the diversity of their applications based on therapeutic areas, methodologies, software platforms, and functionalities. The collection and investigation of these publications can assist in providing a repository of recent QSP studies to facilitate the discovery and further reusability of QSP models. Our review shows that the largest number of QSP efforts in recent years is in Immuno-Oncology. We also addressed the benefits of integrative approaches in this field by presenting the applications of Machine Learning methods for drug discovery and QSP models. Based on this meta-analysis, we discuss the advantages and limitations of QSP models and propose fields where the QSP approach constitutes a valuable interface for more investigations to tackle complex diseases and improve drug development.

Multi-omics driven predictions of response to acute phase combination antidepressant therapy: a machine learning approach with cross-trial replication

Combination antidepressant pharmacotherapies are frequently used to treat major depressive disorder (MDD). However, there is no evidence that machine learning approaches combining multi-omics measures (e.g., genomics and plasma metabolomics) can achieve clinically meaningful predictions of outcomes to combination pharmacotherapy. This study examined data from 264 MDD outpatients treated with citalopram or escitalopram in the Mayo Clinic Pharmacogenomics Research Network Antidepressant Medication Pharmacogenomic Study (PGRN-AMPS) and 111 MDD outpatients treated with combination pharmacotherapies in the Combined Medications to Enhance Outcomes of Antidepressant Therapy (CO-MED) study to predict response to combination antidepressant therapies. To assess whether metabolomics with functionally validated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) improves predictability over metabolomics alone, models were trained/tested with and without SNPs. Models trained with PGRN-AMPS' and CO-MED's escitalopram/citalopram patients predicted response in CO-MED's combination pharmacotherapy patients with accuracies of 76.6% (p < 0.01; AUC: 0.85) without and 77.5% (p < 0.01; AUC: 0.86) with SNPs. Then, models trained solely with PGRN-AMPS' escitalopram/citalopram patients predicted response in CO-MED's combination pharmacotherapy patients with accuracies of 75.3% (p < 0.05; AUC: 0.84) without and 77.5% (p < 0.01; AUC: 0.86) with SNPs, demonstrating cross-trial replication of predictions. Plasma hydroxylated sphingomyelins were prominent predictors of treatment outcomes. To explore the relationship between SNPs and hydroxylated sphingomyelins, we conducted multi-omics integration network analysis. Sphingomyelins clustered with SNPs and metabolites related to monoamine neurotransmission, suggesting a potential functional relationship. These results suggest that integrating specific metabolites and SNPs achieves accurate predictions of treatment response across classes of antidepressants. Finally, these results motivate functional investigation into how sphingomyelins might influence MDD pathophysiology, antidepressant response, or both.

CYP2C19 polymorphisms are associated with severity of depression at initial evaluation and after the treatment independently of the prescribed medications: 4 weeks prospective study

BACKGROUND

The cytochrome P-450 2C19 (CYP2C19) enzyme is involved in the metabolism of numerous antidepressants. It also metabolises some endogenous substrates, which could also confer to vulnerability. We aimed to establish whether the severity of depression and treatment response are associated with the genetically predicted CYP2C19 phenotype.

METHODS

We assessed the CYP2C19 genotype-predicted metabolic phenotypes (normal, intermediate or ultrarapid, there were no poor metabolisers) in patients with moderate or severe depression. We used the self-rated Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) scale and the clinician-rated Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) at baseline, after 2 and 4 weeks of an empirical treatment trial. Patients and clinicians were blind to the genetic testing results.

RESULTS

Seventy-six patients participated in the present study. At baseline, impaired CYP2C19 metabolisers, compared to normal metabolisers, had higher BDI-II (P = 0.046; ηp2 = 0.08) but not MADRS score. Intermediate metabolisers more often had a diagnosis of severe depression than normal metabolisers (P = 0.003). After 4 weeks of empirical treatment, intermediate metabolisers had significantly higher MADRS and BDI-II scores than normal metabolisers (P = 0.006; ηp2  = 0.131 and P = 0.030; ηp2 = 0.091). These differences were independent of the use of CYP2C19-metabolised medications in the treatment trial, as well as the treatment discrepancy status.

CONCLUSIONS

Intermediate CYP2C19 polymorphism-predicted activity was associated with more severe depression after an empirical treatment trial. The lack of association between the prescription of CYP2C19-metabolised drugs and treatment response calls for a further look into the role of endogenous substrates of CYP2C19.

Early Prediction of Tacrolimus-Induced Tubular Toxicity in Pediatric Refractory Nephrotic Syndrome Using Machine Learning

Background and Aims: Tacrolimus(TAC)-induced nephrotoxicity, which has a large individual variation, may lead to treatment failure or even the end-stage renal disease. However, there is still a lack of effective models for the early prediction of TAC-induced nephrotoxicity, especially in nephrotic syndrome(NS). We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model of TAC-induced tubular toxicity in children with NS using machine learning based on comprehensive clinical and genetic variables. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort of 218 children with NS admitted between June 2013 and December 2018 was used to establish the models, and 11 children were prospectively enrolled for external validation. We screened 47 clinical features and 244 genetic variables. The changes in urine N- acetyl- β-D- glucosaminidase(NAG) levels before and after administration was used as an indicator of renal tubular toxicity. Results: Five machine learning algorithms, including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), extremely random trees (ET), random forest (RF), and logistic regression (LR) were used for model generation and validation. Four genetic variables, including TRPC6 rs3824934_GG, HSD11B1 rs846910_AG, MAP2K6 rs17823202_GG, and SCARB2 rs6823680_CC were incorporated into the final model. The XGBoost model has the best performance: sensitivity 75%, specificity 77.8%, accuracy 77.3%, and AUC 78.9%. Conclusion: A pre-administration model with good performance for predicting TAC-induced nephrotoxicity in NS was developed and validated using machine learning based on genetic factors. Physicians can estimate the possibility of nephrotoxicity in NS patients using this simple and accurate model to optimize treatment regimen before administration or to intervene in time after administration to avoid kidney damage.

Machine Learning-Based Definition of Symptom Clusters and Selection of Antidepressants for Depressive Syndrome

The current polythetic and operational criteria for major depression inevitably contribute to the heterogeneity of depressive syndromes. The heterogeneity of depressive syndrome has been criticized using the concept of language game in Wittgensteinian philosophy. Moreover, “a symptom- or endophenotype-based approach, rather than a diagnosis-based approach, has been proposed” as the “next-generation treatment for mental disorders” by Thomas Insel. Understanding the heterogeneity renders promise for personalized medicine to treat cases of depressive syndrome, in terms of both defining symptom clusters and selecting antidepressants. Machine learning algorithms have emerged as a tool for personalized medicine by handling clinical big data that can be used as predictors for subtype classification and treatment outcome prediction. The large clinical cohort data from the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D), Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcome (CO-MED), and the German Research Network on Depression (GRND) have recently began to be acknowledged as useful sources for machine learning-based depression research with regard to cost effectiveness and generalizability. In addition, noninvasive biological tools such as functional and resting state magnetic resonance imaging techniques are widely combined with machine learning methods to detect intrinsic endophenotypes of depression. This review highlights recent studies that have used clinical cohort or brain imaging data and have addressed machine learning-based approaches to defining symptom clusters and selecting antidepressants. Potentially applicable suggestions to realize machine learning-based personalized medicine for depressive syndrome are also provided herein.

Pharmacogenetics to guide cardiovascular drug therapy

Over the past decade, pharmacogenetic testing has emerged in clinical practice to guide selected cardiovascular therapies. The most common implementation in practice is CYP2C19 genotyping to predict clopidogrel response and assist in selecting antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention. Additional examples include genotyping to guide warfarin dosing and statin prescribing. Increasing evidence exists on outcomes with genotype-guided cardiovascular therapies from multiple randomized controlled trials and observational studies. Pharmacogenetic evidence is accumulating for additional cardiovascular medications. However, data for many of these medications are not yet sufficient to support the use of genotyping for drug prescribing. Ultimately, pharmacogenetics might provide a means to individualize drug regimens for complex diseases such as heart failure, in which the treatment armamentarium includes a growing list of medications shown to reduce morbidity and mortality. However, sophisticated analytical approaches are likely to be necessary to dissect the genetic underpinnings of responses to drug combinations. In this Review, we examine the evidence supporting pharmacogenetic testing in cardiovascular medicine, including that available from several clinical trials. In addition, we describe guidelines that support the use of cardiovascular pharmacogenetics, provide examples of clinical implementation of genotype-guided cardiovascular therapies and discuss opportunities for future growth of the field.

The promise of machine learning in predicting treatment outcomes in psychiatry

For many years, psychiatrists have tried to understand factors involved in response to medications or psychotherapies, in order to personalize their treatment choices. There is now a broad and growing interest in the idea that we can develop models to personalize treatment decisions using new statistical approaches from the field of machine learning and applying them to larger volumes of data. In this pursuit, there has been a paradigm shift away from experimental studies to confirm or refute specific hypotheses towards a focus on the overall explanatory power of a predictive model when tested on new, unseen datasets. In this paper, we review key studies using machine learning to predict treatment outcomes in psychiatry, ranging from medications and psychotherapies to digital interventions and neurobiological treatments. Next, we focus on some new sources of data that are being used for the development of predictive models based on machine learning, such as electronic health records, smartphone and social media data, and on the potential utility of data from genetics, electrophysiology, neuroimaging and cognitive testing. Finally, we discuss how far the field has come towards implementing prediction tools in real-world clinical practice. Relatively few retrospective studies to-date include appropriate external validation procedures, and there are even fewer prospective studies testing the clinical feasibility and effectiveness of predictive models. Applications of machine learning in psychiatry face some of the same ethical challenges posed by these techniques in other areas of medicine or computer science, which we discuss here. In short, machine learning is a nascent but important approach to improve the effectiveness of mental health care, and several prospective clinical studies suggest that it may be working already.

Prediction of short-term antidepressant response using probabilistic graphical models with replication across multiple drugs and treatment settings

Heterogeneity in the clinical presentation of major depressive disorder and response to antidepressants limits clinicians' ability to accurately predict a specific patient's eventual response to therapy. Validated depressive symptom profiles may be an important tool for identifying poor outcomes early in the course of treatment. To derive these symptom profiles, we first examined data from 947 depressed subjects treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) to delineate the heterogeneity of antidepressant response using probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). We then used unsupervised machine learning to identify specific depressive symptoms and thresholds of improvement that were predictive of antidepressant response by 4 weeks for a patient to achieve remission, response, or nonresponse by 8 weeks. Four depressive symptoms (depressed mood, guilt feelings and delusion, work and activities and psychic anxiety) and specific thresholds of change in each at 4 weeks predicted eventual outcome at 8 weeks to SSRI therapy with an average accuracy of 77% (p = 5.5E-08). The same four symptoms and prognostic thresholds derived from patients treated with SSRIs correctly predicted outcomes in 72% (p = 1.25E-05) of 1996 patients treated with other antidepressants in both inpatient and outpatient settings in independent publicly-available datasets. These predictive accuracies were higher than the accuracy of 53% for predicting SSRI response achieved using approaches that (i) incorporated only baseline clinical and sociodemographic factors, or (ii) used 4-week nonresponse status to predict likely outcomes at 8 weeks. The present findings suggest that PGMs providing interpretable predictions have the potential to enhance clinical treatment of depression and reduce the time burden associated with trials of ineffective antidepressants. Prospective trials examining this approach are forthcoming.

Multiscale modeling meets machine learning: What can we learn?

Machine learning is increasingly recognized as a promising technology in the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences. There can be no argument that this technique is incredibly successful in image recognition with immediate applications in diagnostics including electrophysiology, radiology, or pathology, where we have access to massive amounts of annotated data. However, machine learning often performs poorly in prognosis, especially when dealing with sparse data. This is a field where classical physics-based simulation seems to remain irreplaceable. In this review, we identify areas in the biomedical sciences where machine learning and multiscale modeling can mutually benefit from one another: Machine learning can integrate physics-based knowledge in the form of governing equations, boundary conditions, or constraints to manage ill-posted problems and robustly handle sparse and noisy data; multiscale modeling can integrate machine learning to create surrogate models, identify system dynamics and parameters, analyze sensitivities, and quantify uncertainty to bridge the scales and understand the emergence of function. With a view towards applications in the life sciences, we discuss the state of the art of combining machine learning and multiscale modeling, identify applications and opportunities, raise open questions, and address potential challenges and limitations. We anticipate that it will stimulate discussion within the community of computational mechanics and reach out to other disciplines including mathematics, statistics, computer science, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, systems biology, and precision medicine to join forces towards creating robust and efficient models for biological systems.

Robust Performance of Potentially Functional SNPs in Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Atorvastatin-Induced Myalgia

Statins can cause muscle symptoms resulting in poor adherence to therapy and increased cardiovascular risk. We hypothesize that combinations of potentially functional SNPs (pfSNPs), rather than individual SNPs, better predict myalgia in patients on atorvastatin. This study assesses the value of potentially functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (pfSNPs) and employs six machine learning algorithms to identify the combination of SNPs that best predict myalgia.

Methods: Whole genome sequencing of 183 Chinese, Malay and Indian patients from Singapore was conducted to identify genetic variants associated with atorvastatin induced myalgia. To adjust for confounding factors, demographic and clinical characteristics were also examined for their association with myalgia. The top factor, sex, was then used as a covariate in the whole genome association analyses. Variants that were highly associated with myalgia from this and previous studies were extracted, assessed for potential functionality (pfSNPs) and incorporated into six machine learning models. Predictive performance of a combination of different models and inputs were compared using the average cross validation area under ROC curve (AUC). The minimum combination of SNPs to achieve maximum sensitivity and specificity as determined by AUC, that predict atorvastatin-induced myalgia in most, if not all the six machine learning models was determined.

Results: Through whole genome association analyses using sex as a covariate, a larger proportion of pfSNPs compared to non-pf SNPs were found to be highly associated with myalgia. Although none of the individual SNPs achieved genome wide significance in univariate analyses, machine learning models identified a combination of 15 SNPs that predict myalgia with good predictive performance (AUC >0.9). SNPs within genes identified in this study significantly outperformed SNPs within genes previously reported to be associated with myalgia. pfSNPs were found to be more robust in predicting myalgia, outperforming non-pf SNPs in the majority of machine learning models tested.

Conclusion: Combinations of pfSNPs that were consistently identified by different machine learning models to have high predictive performance have good potential to be clinically useful for predicting atorvastatin-induced myalgia once validated against an independent cohort of patients.

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor Pharmaco-Omics: Mechanisms and Prediction

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are a standard of care for the pharmacotherapy of patients suffering from Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). However, only one-half to two-thirds of MDD patients respond to SSRI therapy. Recently, a "multiple omics" research strategy was applied to identify genetic differences between patients who did and did not respond to SSRI therapy. As a first step, plasma metabolites were assayed using samples from the 803 patients in the PGRN-AMPS SSRI MDD trial. The metabolomics data were then used to "inform" genomics by performing a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for plasma concentrations of the metabolite most highly associated with clinical response, serotonin (5-HT). Two genome-wide or near genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) signals were identified, one that mapped near the TSPAN5 gene and another across the ERICH3 gene, both genes that are highly expressed in the brain. Knocking down TSPAN5 and ERICH3 resulted in decreased 5-HT concentrations in neuroblastoma cell culture media and decreased expression of enzymes involved in 5-HT biosynthesis and metabolism. Functional genomic studies demonstrated that ERICH3 was involved in clathrin-mediated vesicle formation and TSPAN5 was an ethanol-responsive gene that may be a marker for response to acamprosate pharmacotherapy of alcohol use disorder (AUD), a neuropsychiatric disorder highly co-morbid with MDD. In parallel studies, kynurenine was the plasma metabolite most highly associated with MDD symptom severity and application of a metabolomics-informed pharmacogenomics approach identified DEFB1 and AHR as genes associated with variation in plasma kynurenine levels. Both genes also contributed to kynurenine-related inflammatory pathways. Finally, a multiply replicated predictive algorithm for SSRI clinical response with a balanced predictive accuracy of 76% (compared with 56% for clinical data alone) was developed by including the SNPs in TSPAN5, ERICH3, DEFB1 and AHR. In summary, application of a multiple omics research strategy that used metabolomics to inform genomics, followed by functional genomic studies, identified novel genes that influenced monoamine biology and made it possible to develop a predictive algorithm for SSRI clinical outcomes in MDD. A similar pharmaco-omic research strategy might be broadly applicable for the study of other neuropsychiatric diseases and their drug therapy.

From Personalized Medicine to Precision Psychiatry?

Personalised medicine aims to find an individualized approach for each particular patient. Most factors used in current psychiatry, however, depend on the assessment made by the individual clinician and lack a higher degree of reliability. Precision medicine bases decisions on quantifiable indicators available thanks to the tremendous progress in science and technology facilitating the acquisition, processing and analysis of huge amounts of data. So far, psychiatry has not been benefiting enough from the advanced diagnostic technologies; nevertheless, we are witnessing the dawn of the era of precision psychiatry, starting with the gathering of sufficient amounts of data and its analysis by the means of artificial intelligence and machine learning. First results of this approach in psychiatry are available, which facilitate diagnosis assessment, course prediction, and appropriate treatment choice. These processes are often so complex and difficult to understand that they may resemble a "black box", which can slow down the acceptance of the results of this approach in clinical practice. Still, bringing precision medicine including psychiatry to standard clinical practice is a big challenge that can result in a completely new and transformative concept of health care. Such extensive changes naturally have both their supporters and opponents. This paper aims to familiarize clinically oriented physicians with precision psychiatry and to attract their attention to its recent developments. We cover the theoretical basis of precision medicine, its specifics in psychiatry, and provide examples of its use in the field of diagnostic assessment, course prediction, and appropriate treatment planning.

RAINFOREST: a random forest approach to predict treatment benefit in data from (failed) clinical drug trials

MOTIVATION

When phase III clinical drug trials fail their endpoint, enormous resources are wasted. Moreover, even if a clinical trial demonstrates a significant benefit, the observed effects are often small and may not outweigh the side effects of the drug. Therefore, there is a great clinical need for methods to identify genetic markers that can identify subgroups of patients which are likely to benefit from treatment as this may (i) rescue failed clinical trials and/or (ii) identify subgroups of patients which benefit more than the population as a whole. When single genetic biomarkers cannot be found, machine learning approaches that find multivariate signatures are required. For single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profiles, this is extremely challenging owing to the high dimensionality of the data. Here, we introduce RAINFOREST (tReAtment benefIt prediction using raNdom FOREST), which can predict treatment benefit from patient SNP profiles obtained in a clinical trial setting.

RESULTS

We demonstrate the performance of RAINFOREST on the CAIRO2 dataset, a phase III clinical trial which tested the addition of cetuximab treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer and concluded there was no benefit. However, we find that RAINFOREST is able to identify a subgroup comprising 27.7% of the patients that do benefit, with a hazard ratio of 0.69 (P = 0.04) in favor of cetuximab. The method is not specific to colorectal cancer and could aid in reanalysis of clinical trial data and provide a more personalized approach to cancer treatment, also when there is no clear link between a single variant and treatment benefit.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The R code used to produce the results in this paper can be found at github.com/jubels/RAINFOREST. A more configurable, user-friendly Python implementation of RAINFOREST is also provided. Due to restrictions based on privacy regulations and informed consent of participants, phenotype and genotype data of the CAIRO2 trial cannot be made freely available in a public repository. Data from this study can be obtained upon request. Requests should be directed toward Prof. Dr. H.J. Guchelaar (h.j.guchelaar@lumc.nl).

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Präzisionspsychiatrie und der Beitrag von Brain Imaging und anderen Biomarkern

'Precision Psychiatry' as the psychiatric variant of 'Precision Medicine' aims to provide high-level diagnosis and treatment based on robust biomarkers and tailored to the individual clinical, neurobiological, and genetic constitution of the patient. The specific peculiarity of psychiatry, in which disease entities are normatively defined based on clinical experience and are also significantly influenced by contemporary history, society and philosophy, has so far made the search for valid and reliable psychobiological connections difficult. Nevertheless, considerable progress has now been made in all areas of psychiatric research, made possible above all by the critical review and renewal of previous concepts of disease and psychopathology, the increased orientation towards neurobiology and genetics, and in particular the use of machine learning methods. Notably, modern machine learning methods make it possible to integrate high-dimensional and multimodal data sets and generate models which provide new psychobiological insights and offer the possibility of individualized, biomarker-driven single-subject prediction of diagnosis, therapy response and prognosis. The aim of the present review is therefore to introduce the concept of 'Precision Psychiatry' to the interested reader, to concisely present modern, machine learning methods required for this, and to clearly present the current state and future of biomarker-based 'precision psychiatry'.

Second-Generation Digital Health Platforms: Placing the Patient at the Center and Focusing on Clinical Outcomes

Artificial intelligence (AI) digital health systems have drawn much attention over the last decade. However, their implementation into medical practice occurs at a much slower pace than expected. This paper reviews some of the achievements of first-generation AI systems, and the barriers facing their implementation into medical practice. The development of second-generation AI systems is discussed with a focus on overcoming some of these obstacles. Second-generation systems are aimed at focusing on a single subject and on improving patients' clinical outcomes. A personalized closed-loop system designed to improve end-organ function and the patient's response to chronic therapies is presented. The system introduces a platform which implements a personalized therapeutic regimen and introduces quantifiable individualized-variability patterns into its algorithm. The platform is designed to achieve a clinically meaningful endpoint by ensuring that chronic therapies will have sustainable effect while overcoming compensatory mechanisms associated with disease progression and drug resistance. Second-generation systems are expected to assist patients and providers in adopting and implementing of these systems into everyday care.

Kynurenic acid is a potential overlapped biomarker between diagnosis and treatment response for depression from metabolome analysis

Since optimal treatment at an early stage leads to remission of symptoms and recovery of function, putative biomarkers leading to early diagnosis and prediction of therapeutic responses are desired. The current study aimed to use a metabolomic approach to extract metabolites involved in both the diagnosis of major depressive disorder (MDD) and the prediction of therapeutic response for escitalopram. We compared plasma metabolites of MDD patients (n = 88) with those in healthy participants (n = 88) and found significant differences in the concentrations of 20 metabolites. We measured the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD) on 62 patients who completed approximately six-week treatment with escitalopram before and after treatment and found that kynurenic acid and kynurenine were significantly and negatively associated with HRSD reduction. Only one metabolite, kynurenic acid, was detected among 73 metabolites for overlapped biomarkers. Kynurenic acid was lower in MDD, and lower levels showed a better therapeutic response to escitalopram. Kynurenic acid is a metabolite in the kynurenine pathway that has been widely accepted as being a major mechanism in MDD. Overlapping biomarkers that facilitate diagnosis and prediction of the treatment response may help to improve disease classification and reduce the exposure of patients to less effective treatments in MDD.