A fast-moving target: achieving marine conservation goals under shifting climate and policies

Ocean Planning and Conservation in the Age of Climate Change: A Roundtable Discussion

Over recent years, recognition of the need to develop climate-smart marine spatial planning (MSP) has gained momentum globally. In this roundtable discussion, we use a question-and-answer format to leverage diverse perspectives and voices involved in the study of sustainable MSP and marine conservation under global environmental and social change. We intend this dialogue to serve as a stepping stone toward developing ocean planning initiatives that are sustainable, equitable, and climate-resilient around the globe.

Marine ecological security shelter in China: Concept, policy framework, mechanism and implementation obstacles

Building a marine ecological security shelter (MESS) has become the main strategy to adapt marine ecological threats in China. As China's marine policy lacks a robust framework document, it is necessary to consider whether the policy system can effectively support the construction of MESS. However, the linkage between the construction measures of MESS and related policies is not clear. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to clarify the concept of MESS and its connection with policy, by adopting the policy content analysis method to analyze the evolution process of MESS-related policy system. The legislative shortcomings and implementation obstacles of the MESS-related policy system are then summarized and discussed. The results show that from 1981 to 2021 the MESS-related policy system has been continuously improved. However, the policy system's support and guarantee capacity for building MESS still needs to be improved. (1) Due to the lack of basic laws and special laws, the coordination among governance subjects and among policies lacks legislative guarantee. (2) The construction of MESS continues the inter-regional and inter-department administrative barriers in collaborative governance of marine environment. To establish an effective collaborative governance model, it is essential to improve the governance structure and mechanism. (3) The government-led governance pattern faces the problem of mechanism failure. The command and control instrument accounts for more than 82%, and the public and enterprises lack strong policy guarantees to participate in marine governance. (4) The policy system's adaptability to emerging threats must be improved. Marine policies rarely involve emerging threats such as climate change and new pollutants. Meanwhile, the real-time supervision and monitoring mechanism is weak. The real-time supervision is only accounting for about 10%. Generally speaking, as a complex and long-term system engineering, the construction of MESS will inevitably encounter contradictions in politics, culture, and economy. China should deepen the construction of marine ecological civilization and form a governance concept based on ecosystems. Overall, this paper helps to understand the internal connection between MESS and policy comprehensively and provides a new perspective for improving China's marine governance capacity.

Resilience against the impacts of climate change in an ecologically and economically significant native oyster

Climate change is acidifying and warming our oceans, at an unprecedented rate posing a challenge for marine invertebrates vital across the globe for ecological services and food security. Here we show it is possible for resilience to climate change in an ecologically and economically significant oyster without detrimental effects to the energy budget. We exposed 24 pair-mated genetically distinct families of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata to ocean acidification and warming for 4w and measured their resilience. Resilience was identified as the capacity to defend their acid-base balance without a loss of energy available for Scope for Growth (SFG). Of the 24 families, 13 were better able to defend their acid-base balance while eight had no loss of energy availability with a positive SFG. This study has found oyster families with reslience against climate change without a loss of SFG, is an essential mitigation strategy, in a critical mollusc.

Canopy-forming macroalgae can adapt to marine heatwaves

Seawater warming and marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a major role on the fragmentation and loss of coastal marine habitats. Understanding the resilience and potential for adaptation of marine habitat forming species to ocean warming becomes pivotal for predicting future changes, improving present conservation and restoration strategies. In this study, a thermo-tolerance experiment was conducted to investigate the physiological effects of short vs long MHWs occurring at different timing on recruits of Gongolaria barbata, a canopy-forming species widespread in the Mediterranean Sea. The recruits were collected from a population of the Marine Protected Area of Porto Cesareo (Apulia, Ionian Sea). Recruits length, PSII maximal photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), photosynthetic pigments content, concentrations of antioxidant compounds and total antioxidant activity (DPPH) were the response variables measured during the experiment. Univariate asymmetrical analyses highlighted that all physiological variables were significantly affected by both the duration and the timing of the thermal stress with the only exception of recruits length. The higher Fv/Fm ratio, chlorophylls and carotenoids content, and antioxidant compounds concentration in recruits exposed to long-term stress likely indicate an acclimation of thalli to the new environmental conditions and hence, an increased tolerance of G. barbata to thermal stress. Results also suggest that the mechanisms of adaptation activated in response to thermal stress did not affect the natural growth rate of recruits. Overall, this study supports the hypothesis that canopy-forming species can adapt to future climate conditions demonstrating a physiological acclimation to cope with MHWs, providing strong evidence that adaptation of marine species to thermal stress is more frequent than expected, this contributing to design tailored conservation and restoration strategies for marine coastal habitat.

A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning

Climate change is already having profound effects on biodiversity, but climate change adaptation has yet to be fully incorporated into area-based management tools used to conserve biodiversity, such as protected areas. One main obstacle is the lack of consensus regarding how impacts of climate change can be included in spatial conservation plans. We propose a climate-smart framework that prioritizes the protection of climate refugia-areas of low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention-using climate metrics. We explore four aspects of climate-smart conservation planning: (1) climate model ensembles; (2) multiple emission scenarios; (3) climate metrics; and (4) approaches to identifying climate refugia. We illustrate this framework in the Western Pacific Ocean, but it is equally applicable to terrestrial systems. We found that all aspects of climate-smart conservation planning considered affected the configuration of spatial plans. The choice of climate metrics and approaches to identifying refugia have large effects in the resulting climate-smart spatial plans, whereas the choice of climate models and emission scenarios have smaller effects. As the configuration of spatial plans depended on climate metrics used, a spatial plan based on a single measure of climate change (e.g., warming) will not necessarily be robust against other measures of climate change (e.g., ocean acidification). We therefore recommend using climate metrics most relevant for the biodiversity and region considered based on a single or multiple climate drivers. To include the uncertainty associated with different climate futures, we recommend using multiple climate models (i.e., an ensemble) and emission scenarios. Finally, we show that the approaches we used to identify climate refugia feature trade-offs between: (1) the degree to which they are climate-smart, and (2) their efficiency in meeting conservation targets. Hence, the choice of approach will depend on the relative value that stakeholders place on climate adaptation. By using this framework, protected areas can be designed with improved longevity and thus safeguard biodiversity against current and future climate change. We hope that the proposed climate-smart framework helps transition conservation planning toward climate-smart approaches.

Invasive Fish and Sea Urchins Drive the Status of Canopy Forming Macroalgae in the Eastern Mediterranean

Canopy-forming macroalgae, such as Cystoseira sensu lato, increase the three-dimensional complexity and spatial heterogeneity of rocky reefs, enhancing biodiversity and productivity in coastal areas. Extensive loss of canopy algae has been recorded in recent decades throughout the Mediterranean Sea due to various anthropogenic pressures. In this study, we assessed the biomass of fish assemblages, sea urchin density, and the vertical distribution of macroalgal communities in the Aegean and Levantine Seas. The herbivore fish biomass was significantly higher in the South Aegean and Levantine compared to the North Aegean. Very low sea urchin densities suggest local collapses in the South Aegean and the Levantine. In most sites in the South Aegean and the Levantine, the ecological status of macroalgal communities was low or very low at depths deeper than 2 m, with limited or no canopy algae. In many sites, canopy algae were restricted to a very narrow, shallow zone, where grazing pressure may be limited due to harsh hydrodynamic conditions. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we demonstrated that the presence of canopy algae is negatively correlated with the biomass of the invasive Siganus spp. and sea urchins. The loss of Cystoseira s.l. forests is alarming, and urgent conservation actions are needed.

Are we there yet? Management baselines and biodiversity indicators for the protection and restoration of subtidal bivalve shellfish habitats

Biodiversity loss and degradation of natural habitats is increasing at an unprecedented rate. Of all marine habitats, biogenic reefs created by once-widespread shellfish, are now one of the most imperilled, and globally scarce. Conservation managers seek to protect and restore these habitats, but suitable baselines and indicators are required, and detailed scientific accounts are rare and inconsistent. In the present study the biodiversity of a model subtidal habitat, formed by the keystone horse mussel Modiolus modiolus (L.), was analysed across its Northeast Atlantic biogeographical range. Consistent samples of 'clumped' mussels were collected at 16 locations, covering a wide range of environmental conditions. Analysis of the associated macroscopic biota showed high biodiversity across all sites, cumulatively hosting 924 marine macroinvertebrate and algal taxa. There was a rapid increase in macroinvertebrate biodiversity (H') and community evenness (J) between 2 and 10 mussels per clump, reaching an asymptote at mussel densities of 10 per clump. Diversity declined at more northern latitudes, with depth and in coarser substrata with the fastest tidal flows. Diversity metrics corrected for species abundance were generally high across the habitats sampled, with significant latitudinal variability caused by current, depth and substrate type. Faunal community composition varied significantly between most sites and was difficult to assign to a 'typical' M. modiolus assemblage, being significantly influenced by regional environmental conditions, including the presence of algal turfs. Within the context of the rapid global increase in protection and restoration of bivalve shellfish habitats, site and density-specific values of diversity are probably the best targets for conservation management and upon which to base monitoring programmes.

Invading the Greek Seas: Spatiotemporal Patterns of Marine Impactful Alien and Cryptogenic Species

The Greek Seas are greatly exposed to the proliferation of marine alien species. At least 242 alien species have been reported within Greek territorial waters, three-quarters of which are considered established, while their rate of introduction is increasing. Some of these species exhibit high invasiveness, imposing severe impacts on native ecosystems and ecosystem services. The spatiotemporal proliferation of these species outside their natural boundaries depends on several parameters, including their biological characteristics, native distribution range, introduction pathway, and time of initial introduction. Knowing the current and potential alien species distribution is essential for the implementation of effective management actions. To investigate the distribution of impactful cryptogenic and alien species (ICAS) in the Greek Seas, we combined all records available until the end of 2020 from eight types of data sources: (1) scientific literature, (2) grey literature, (3) offline databases, (4) online scientific databases, (5) personal observations of independent researchers, (6) communications with divers and diving centers, (7) in situ underwater sampling, and (8) social networks. The results of 5478 georeferenced records refer to 60 marine ICAS belonging to 16 taxonomic groups. The number of records and the overall number of ICAS present an increasing trend from the northern to the southern parts of our study area, and there is a clear distinction in community composition between the northern and southern subregions. This latitudinal gradient is mainly due to the large number of thermophilous Lessepsian species of West Indo-Pacific origin, which reach the southern parts of the study area through unaided dispersal. On the other hand, transport stowaways appear to be more prevalent in areas located near large ports, which show significant differences in ICAS numbers and community composition compared to sites located far from ports. Most records (>40% of the total) were associated with rocky reefs, partly reflecting the preference of divers for this habitat type but also the presence of conspicuous, reef-associated impactful fish. The number of published records, as well as the number of reported ICAS, shows a dramatic increase with time, highlighting the urgent need for immediate proactive management actions and scientifically informed control measures.

The EICAT+ framework enables classification of positive impacts of alien taxa on native biodiversity

Species introduced through human-related activities beyond their native range, termed alien species, have various impacts worldwide. The IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is a global standard to assess negative impacts of alien species on native biodiversity. Alien species can also positively affect biodiversity (for instance, through food and habitat provisioning or dispersal facilitation) but there is currently no standardized and evidence-based system to classify positive impacts. We fill this gap by proposing EICAT+, which uses 5 semiquantitative scenarios to categorize the magnitude of positive impacts, and describes underlying mechanisms. EICAT+ can be applied to all alien taxa at different spatial and organizational scales. The application of EICAT+ expands our understanding of the consequences of biological invasions and can inform conservation decisions.

4D marine conservation networks: Combining 3D prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia

Given the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, the need to prioritize marine areas for protection represents a major conservation challenge. The three-dimensionality of marine life and ecosystems is an inherent element of complexity for setting spatial conservation plans. Yet, the confidence of any recommendation largely depends on shifting climate, which triggers a global redistribution of biodiversity, suggesting the inclusion of time as a fourth dimension. Here, we developed a depth-specific prioritization analysis to inform the design of protected areas, further including metrics of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Climate change was captured in this analysis by considering the projected future distribution of >2000 benthic and pelagic species inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea, combined with climatic stability and heterogeneity metrics of the seascape. We identified important areas based on both biological and climatic criteria, where conservation focus should be given in priority when designing a three-dimensional, climate-smart protected area network. We detected spatially concise, conservation priority areas, distributed around the basin, that protected marine areas almost equally across all depth zones. Our approach highlights the importance of deep sea zones as priority areas to meet conservation targets for future marine biodiversity, while suggesting that spatial prioritization schemes, that focus on a static two-dimensional distribution of biodiversity data, might fail to englobe both the vertical properties of species distributions and the fine and larger-scale impacts associated with climate change.

An integrated assessment of the Good Environmental Status of Mediterranean Marine Protected Areas

Local, regional and global targets have been set to halt marine biodiversity loss. Europe has set its own policy targets to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) of marine ecosystems by implementing the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) across member states. We combined an extensive dataset across five Mediterranean ecoregions including 26 Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), their reference unprotected areas, and a no-trawl case study. Our aim was to assess if MPAs reach GES, if their effects are local or can be detected at ecoregion level or up to a Mediterranean scale, and which are the ecosystem components driving GES achievement. This was undertaken by using the analytical tool NEAT (Nested Environmental status Assessment Tool), which allows an integrated assessment of the status of marine systems. We adopted an ecosystem approach by integrating data from several ecosystem components: the seagrass Posidonia oceanica, macroalgae, sea urchins and fish. Thresholds to define the GES were set by dedicated workshops and literature review. In the Western Mediterranean, most MPAs are in good/high status, with P. oceanica and fish driving this result within MPAs. However, GES is achieved only at a local level, and the Mediterranean Sea, as a whole, results in a moderate environmental status. Macroalgal forests are overall in bad condition, confirming their status at risk. The results are significantly affected by the assumption that discrete observations over small spatial scales are representative of the total extension investigated. This calls for large-scale, dedicated assessments to realistically detect environmental status changes under different conditions. Understanding MPAs effectiveness in reaching GES is crucial to assess their role as sentinel observatories of marine systems. MPAs and trawling bans can locally contribute to the attainment of GES and to the fulfillment of the MSFD objectives. Building confidence in setting thresholds between GES and non-GES, investing in long-term monitoring, increasing the spatial extent of sampling areas, rethinking and broadening the scope of complementary tools of protection (e.g., Natura 2000 Sites), are indicated as solutions to ameliorate the status of the basin.

Bright spots as climate-smart marine spatial planning tools for conservation and blue growth

Marine spatial planning that addresses ocean climate-driven change ('climate-smart MSP') is a global aspiration to support economic growth, food security and ecosystem sustainability. Ocean climate change ('CC') modelling may become a key decision-support tool for MSP, but traditional modelling analysis and communication challenges prevent their broad uptake. We employed MSP-specific ocean climate modelling analyses to inform a real-life MSP process; addressing how nature conservation and fisheries could be adapted to CC. We found that the currently planned distribution of these activities may become unsustainable during the policy's implementation due to CC, leading to a shortfall in its sustainability and blue growth targets. Significant, climate-driven ecosystem-level shifts in ocean components underpinning designated sites and fishing activity were estimated, reflecting different magnitudes of shifts in benthic versus pelagic, and inshore versus offshore habitats. Supporting adaptation, we then identified: CC refugia (areas where the ecosystem remains within the boundaries of its present state); CC hotspots (where climate drives the ecosystem towards a new state, inconsistent with each sectors' present use distribution); and for the first time, identified bright spots (areas where oceanographic processes drive range expansion opportunities that may support sustainable growth in the medium term). We thus create the means to: identify where sector-relevant ecosystem change is attributable to CC; incorporate resilient delivery of conservation and sustainable ecosystem management aims into MSP; and to harness opportunities for blue growth where they exist. Capturing CC bright spots alongside refugia within protected areas may present important opportunities to meet sustainability targets while helping support the fishing sector in a changing climate. By capitalizing on the natural distribution of climate resilience within ocean ecosystems, such climate-adaptive spatial management strategies could be seen as nature-based solutions to limit the impact of CC on ocean ecosystems and dependent blue economy sectors, paving the way for climate-smart MSP.

Climate differently influences the genomic patterns of two sympatric marine fish species

Climate influences population genetic variation in marine species. Capturing these impacts remains challenging for marine fishes which disperse over large geographical scales spanning steep environmental gradients. It requires the extensive spatial sampling of individuals or populations, representative of seascape heterogeneity, combined with a set of highly informative molecular markers capable of revealing climatic-associated genetic variations. We explored how space, dispersal and environment shape the genomic patterns of two sympatric fish species in the Mediterranean Sea, which ranks among the oceanic basins most affected by climate change and human pressure. We hypothesized that the population structure and climate-associated genomic signatures of selection would be stronger in the less mobile species, as restricted gene flow tends to facilitate the fixation of locally adapted alleles. To test our hypothesis, we genotyped two species with contrasting dispersal abilities: the white seabream Diplodus sargus and the striped red mullet Mullus surmuletus. We collected 823 individuals and used genotyping by sequencing (GBS) to detect 8,206 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for the seabream and 2,794 for the mullet. For each species, we identified highly differentiated genomic regions (i.e. outliers) and disentangled the relative contribution of space, dispersal and environmental variables (climate, marine primary productivity) on the outliers' genetic structure to test the prevalence of gene flow and local adaptation. We observed contrasting patterns of gene flow and adaptive genetic variation between the two species. The seabream showed a distinct Alboran sea population and panmixia across the Mediterranean Sea. The mullet revealed additional differentiation within the Mediterranean Sea that was significantly correlated to summer and winter temperatures, as well as marine primary productivity. Functional annotation of the climate-associated outlier SNPs then identified candidate genes involved in heat tolerance that could be examined to further predict species' responses to climate change. Our results illustrate the key steps of a comparative seascape genomics study aiming to unravel the evolutionary processes at play in marine species, to better anticipate their response to climate change. Defining population adaptation capacities and environmental niches can then serve to incorporate evolutionary processes into species conservation planning.

Sea level rise can severely reduce biodiversity and community net production on rocky shores

Sea level rise (SLR), driven by anthropogenic climate change, can be a major threat to coastal ecosystems. Among the most biologically diverse but SLR-threatened coastal ecosystems are rocky shores, especially in regions with a small tidal range. Nonetheless, the impacts of SLR on rocky shore biodiversity, community structure and ecosystem functions have rarely been studied. Here, we use the biogenic intertidal ecosystem, Mediterranean vermetid reefs on the Israeli coast, as case study for testing the potential impact of SLR on reef communities, with surveys, 3D topographic mapping plus SLR simulations, and a manipulative community translocation experiment. We show that: (1) biodiversity is much lower on very shallow, permanently submerged, horizontal rocky surfaces compared to that on intertidal reef platforms, (2) the extensive intertidal platforms will permanently drown under even modest SLR scenarios, (3) the rich intertidal community will transform, when permanently submerged, either to a very different but still rich community when protected from grazing by highly abundant invasive fish (rabbitfish), or to a much poorer turf community when exposed to such fish grazing, and (4) the reef community net production will drastically drop under permanent submersion. Because the main ecosystem engineer of the vermetid reefs, Dendropoma anguliferum (Monterosato, 1878), is nearly extinct in the southeast Levant, it is unlikely that new reefs will be formed higher on the shore in the future, presumably resulting in extensive coastal ecological shifts. Considerable coastal community shifts are forecasted for many regions globally due to SLR, as many shorelines are predicted to suffer from "coastal squeeze". Hence, similar manipulative experiments are encouraged in other regions to test for generality vs. context dependency in SLR ecological impacts. We suggest that in cases where essential/unique intertidal habitats like vermetid reefs are expected to vanish by SLR, constructing carefully-planned, ecologically friendly, artificial alternatives should be considered.

Mediterranean rocky reefs in the Anthropocene: Present status and future concerns

Global change is striking harder and faster in the Mediterranean Sea than elsewhere, where high levels of human pressure and proneness to climate change interact in modifying the structure and disrupting regulative mechanisms of marine ecosystems. Rocky reefs are particularly exposed to such environmental changes with ongoing trends of degradation being impressive. Due to the variety of habitat types and associated marine biodiversity, rocky reefs are critical for the functioning of marine ecosystems, and their decline could profoundly affect the provision of essential goods and services which human populations in coastal areas rely upon. Here, we provide an up-to-date overview of the status of rocky reefs, trends in human-driven changes undermining their integrity, and current and upcoming management and conservation strategies, attempting a projection on what could be the future of this essential component of Mediterranean marine ecosystems.

Distinct interspecific and intraspecific vulnerability of coastal species to global change

Characterising and predicting species responses to anthropogenic global change is one of the key challenges in contemporary ecology and conservation. The sensitivity of marine species to climate change is increasingly being described with forecasted species distributions, yet these rarely account for population level processes such as genomic variation and local adaptation. This study compares inter- and intraspecific patterns of biological composition to determine how vulnerability to climate change, and its environmental drivers, vary across species and populations. We compare species trajectories for three ecologically important southern African marine invertebrates at two time points in the future, both at the species level, with correlative species distribution models, and at the population level, with gradient forest models. Reported range shifts are species-specific and include both predicted range gains and losses. Forecasted species responses to climate change are strongly influenced by changes in a suite of environmental variables, from sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, to minimum air temperature. Our results further suggest a mismatch between future habitat suitability (where species can remain in their ecological niche) and genomic vulnerability (where populations retain their genomic composition), highlighting the inter- and intraspecific variability in species' sensitivity to global change. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of considering species and population level climatic vulnerability when proactively managing coastal marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Weak biodiversity connectivity in the European network of no-take marine protected areas

The need for international cooperation in marine resource management and conservation has been reflected in the increasing number of agreements aiming for effective and well-connected networks of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). However, the extent to which individual MPAs are connected remains mostly unknown. Here, we use a biophysical model tuned with empirical data on species dispersal ecology to predict connectivity of a vast spectrum of biodiversity in the European network of marine reserves (i.e., no-take MPAs). Our results highlight the correlation between empirical propagule duration data and connectivity potential and show weak network connectivity and strong isolation for major ecological groups, resulting from the lack of direct connectivity corridors between reserves over vast regions. The particularly high isolation predicted for ecosystem structuring species (e.g., corals, sponges, macroalgae and seagrass) might potentially undermine biodiversity conservation efforts if local retention is insufficient and unmanaged populations are at risk. Isolation might also be problematic for populations' persistence in the light of climate change and expected species range shifts. Our findings provide novel insights for management directives, highlighting the location of regions requiring additional marine reserves to function as stepping-stone connectivity corridors.

Managing multiple pressures for cetaceans' conservation with an Ecosystem-Based Marine Spatial Planning approach

Despite the recognized important ecological role that cetaceans play in the marine environment, their protection is still scarcely enforced in the Mediterranean Sea even though this area is strongly threatened by local human pressures and climate change. The piecemeal of knowledge related to cetaceans' ecology and distribution in the basin undermines the capacity of addressing cetaceans' protection and identifying effective conservation strategies. In this study, an Ecosystem-Based Marine Spatial Planning (EB-MSP) approach is applied to assess human pressures on cetaceans and guide the designation of a conservation area in the Gulf of Taranto, Northern Ionian Sea (Central-eastern Mediterranean Sea). The Gulf of Taranto hosts different cetacean species that accomplish important phases of their life in the area. Despite this fact, the gulf does not fall within any area-based management tools (ABMTs) for cetacean conservation. We pin down the Gulf of Taranto being eligible for the designation of diverse ABMTs for conservation, both legally and non-legally binding. Through a risk-based approach, this study explores the cause-effect relationships that link any human activities and pressures exerted in the study area to potential effects on cetaceans, by identifying major drivers of potential impacts. These were found to be underwater noise, marine litter, ship collision, and competition and disturbance on preys. We draw some recommendations based on different sources of available knowledge produced so far in the area (i.e., empirical evidence, scientific and grey literature, and expert judgement) to boost cetaceans' conservation. Finally, we stress the need of sectoral coordination for the management of human activities by applying an EB-MSP approach and valuing the establishment of an ABMT in the Gulf of Taranto.

Responses of marine ecosystems to climate change impacts and their treatment in biogeochemical ecosystem models

To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and the effectiveness of intervention and mitigation strategies, we need reliable marine ecosystem response models such as biogeochemical models that reproduce climate change effects. We reviewed marine ecosystem parameters and processes that are modified by climate change and examined their representations in biogeochemical ecosystem models. The interactions among important aspects of marine ecosystem modelling are not often considered due to complexity: these include the use of multiple IPCC scenarios, ensemble modelling approach, independent calibration datasets, the consideration of changes in cloud cover, ocean currents, wind speed, sea-level rise, storm frequency, storm intensity, and the incorporation of species adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Including our recommendations in future marine modelling studies could help improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

The power of national acoustic tracking networks to assess the impacts of human activity on marine organisms during the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 restrictions have led to an unprecedented global hiatus in anthropogenic activities, providing a unique opportunity to assess human impact on biological systems. Here, we describe how a national network of acoustic tracking receivers can be leveraged to assess the effects of human activity on animal movement and space use during such global disruptions. We outline variation in restrictions on human activity across Australian states and describe four mechanisms affecting human interactions with the marine environment: 1) reduction in economy and trade changing shipping traffic; 2) changes in export markets affecting commercial fisheries; 3) alterations in recreational activities; and 4) decline in tourism. We develop a roadmap for the analysis of acoustic tracking data across various scales using Australia's national Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) Animal Tracking Facility as a case study. We illustrate the benefit of sustained observing systems and monitoring programs by assessing how a 51-day break in white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) cage-diving tourism due to COVID-19 restrictions affected the behaviour and space use of two resident species. This cessation of tourism activities represents the longest break since cage-diving vessels started day trips in this area in 2007. Long-term monitoring of the local environment reveals that the activity space of yellowtail kingfish (Seriola lalandi) was reduced when cage-diving boats were absent compared to periods following standard tourism operations. However, white shark residency and movements were not affected. Our roadmap is globally applicable and will assist researchers in designing studies to assess how anthropogenic activities can impact animal movement and distributions during regional, short-term through to major, unexpected disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic.

A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment

Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.

Native biodiversity collapse in the eastern Mediterranean

Global warming causes the poleward shift of the trailing edges of marine ectotherm species distributions. In the semi-enclosed Mediterranean Sea, continental masses and oceanographic barriers do not allow natural connectivity with thermophilic species pools: as trailing edges retreat, a net diversity loss occurs. We quantify this loss on the Israeli shelf, among the warmest areas in the Mediterranean, by comparing current native molluscan richness with the historical one obtained from surficial death assemblages. We recorded only 12% and 5% of historically present native species on shallow subtidal soft and hard substrates, respectively. This is the largest climate-driven regional-scale diversity loss in the oceans documented to date. By contrast, assemblages in the intertidal, more tolerant to climatic extremes, and in the cooler mesophotic zone show approximately 50% of the historical native richness. Importantly, approximately 60% of the recorded shallow subtidal native species do not reach reproductive size, making the shallow shelf a demographic sink. We predict that, as climate warms, this native biodiversity collapse will intensify and expand geographically, counteracted only by Indo-Pacific species entering from the Suez Canal. These assemblages, shaped by climate warming and biological invasions, give rise to a 'novel ecosystem' whose restoration to historical baselines is not achievable.

The Aichi Biodiversity Targets: achievements for marine conservation and priorities beyond 2020

In 2010 the Conference of the Parties (COP) for the Convention on Biological Diversity revised and updated a Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, which included the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Here a group of early career researchers mentored by senior scientists, convened as part of the 4th World Conference on Marine Biodiversity, reflects on the accomplishments and shortfalls under four of the Aichi Targets considered highly relevant to marine conservation: target 6 (sustainable fisheries), 11 (protection measures), 15 (ecosystem restoration and resilience) and 19 (knowledge, science and technology). We conclude that although progress has been made towards the targets, these have not been fully achieved for the marine environment by the 2020 deadline. The progress made, however, lays the foundations for further work beyond 2020 to work towards the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity. We identify key priorities that must be addressed to better enable marine biodiversity conservation efforts moving forward.

Low diversity or poorly explored? Mesophotic molluscs highlight undersampling in the Eastern Mediterranean

Mesophotic assemblages are the next frontier of marine exploration in the Mediterranean Sea. Located below recreational scuba diving depths, they are difficult to access but host a diverse array of habitats structured by large invertebrate species. The Eastern Mediterranean has been much less explored than the western part of the basin and its mesophotic habitats are virtually unknown. We here describe two mesophotic (77-92 m depth) molluscan assemblages at a rocky reef and on a soft substrate off northern Israel. We record 172 species, of which 43 (25%) are first records for Israel and increase its overall marine molluscan diversity by 7%. Only five of these species have been reported in recent surveys of the nearby Lebanon, suggesting that our results are robust at a broader scale than our study area and that the reported west-to-east declining diversity gradient in the Mediterranean needs a reappraisal based on proper sampling of the eastern basin. We found only four (2%) non-indigenous species, represented by seven (0.5%) specimens. These results suggest that pristine native assemblages still thrive at this depth in Israel, in contrast to the shallow subtidal heavily affected by global warming and biological invasions, calling for strong conservation actions for these valuable but vulnerable habitats.