An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change

Southern Europe is becoming climatically favourable for African birds: anticipating the establishment of a new species

BACKGROUND

The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables.

RESULTS

The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm.

Biological mechanisms matter in contemporary wildlife conservation

Given limited resources for wildlife conservation paired with an urgency to halt declines and rebuild populations, it is imperative that management actions are tactical and effective. Mechanisms are about how a system works and can inform threat identification and mitigation such that conservation actions that work can be identified. Here, we call for a more mechanistic approach to wildlife conservation and management where behavioral and physiological tools and knowledge are used to characterize drivers of decline, identify environmental thresholds, reveal strategies that would restore populations, and prioritize conservation actions. With a growing toolbox for doing mechanistic conservation research as well as a suite of decision-support tools (e.g., mechanistic models), the time is now to fully embrace the concept that mechanisms matter in conservation ensuring that management actions are tactical and focus on actions that have the potential to directly benefit and restore wildlife populations.

Site fidelity and behavioral plasticity regulate an ungulate's response to extreme disturbance

With rapid global change, the frequency and severity of extreme disturbance events are increasing worldwide. The ability of animal populations to survive these stochastic events depends on how individual animals respond to their altered environments, yet our understanding of the immediate and short-term behavioral responses of animals to acute disturbances remains poor. We focused on animal behavioral responses to the environmental disturbance created by megafire. Specifically, we explored the effects of the 2018 Mendocino Complex Fire in northern California, USA, on the behavior and body condition of black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus). We predicted that deer would be displaced by the disturbance or experience high mortality post-fire if they stayed in the burn area. We used data from GPS collars on 18 individual deer to quantify patterns of home range use, movement, and habitat selection before and after the fire. We assessed changes in body condition using images from a camera trap grid. The fire burned through half of the study area, facilitating a comparison between deer in burned and unburned areas. Despite a dramatic reduction in vegetation in burned areas, deer showed high site fidelity to pre-fire home ranges, returning within hours of the fire. However, mean home range size doubled after the fire and corresponded to increased daily activity in a severely resource-depleted environment. Within their home ranges, deer also selected strongly for patches of surviving vegetation and woodland habitat, as these areas provided forage and cover in an otherwise desolate landscape. Deer body condition significantly decreased after the fire, likely as a result of a reduction in forage within their home ranges, but all collared deer survived for the duration of the study. Understanding the ways in which large mammals respond to disturbances such as wildfire is increasingly important as the extent and severity of such events increases across the world. While many animals are adapted to disturbance regimes, species that exhibit high site fidelity or otherwise fixed behavioral strategies may struggle to cope with increased climate instability and associated extreme disturbance events.

Impact of climate change on Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and its autumn diet in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Approximately 20%-30% of plant and animal species are at risk of extinction by the end of the 21st century owing to climate change. Range shifts and range contractions in plant species will dramatically affect the distribution of animals relying on them for food and shelter. The negative impacts of climate change on forested landscapes of the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP) could change the species composition and distribution. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), a forest-dwelling species, primarily depends on plants for foraging, and is assumed to be affected by climate change in NHP. Scat analyses and indigenous knowledge from Machiara National Park revealed the maximum consumption of Quercus species (natural food) and Zea mays (human grown food) by the Asiatic black bear in autumn season. We collected the occurrence data of the Asiatic black bear and its commonly used food (three Quercus spp.) in the NHP. We used the MaxEnt model to simulate current and future (in 2050 and 2070) distribution of the species under RCP4.5 (medium carbon emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (extreme carbon emission scenario). The results predict range reduction and extreme fragmentation in the habitats of all the Quercus spp. Besides, a dramatic decrease in the suitable (SH) and very highly suitable (HSH) habitats was predicted in the future. Range shift and range reduction of Quercus spp. may interrupt the denning chronology of Asiatic black bears, escalate the human-black bear conflicts and local extirpation of the species. Given the extent and magnitude of climate change, it will likely not be enough to focus solely on the conservation of the Asiatic black bear. We need more dynamic planning aiming at mitigating the effect of climate change in forested landscapes including the Quercus forests.

Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change

The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060-2080.

Ecological specialization, variability in activity patterns and response to environmental change

Differences in temporal patterns of activity can modulate the ambient conditions to which organisms are exposed, providing an important mechanism for responding to environmental change. Such differences may be particularly relevant to ecological generalists, which are expected to encounter a wider range of environmental conditions. Here, we compare temporal patterns of activity for partially sympatric populations of a generalist (the lodgepole chipmunk, Tamias speciosus) and a more specialized congener (the alpine chipmunk, Tamias alpinus) that have displayed divergent responses to the past century of environmental change. Although mean activity budgets were similar between species, analyses of individual-level variation in locomotion revealed that T. alpinus exhibited a narrower range of activity patterns than Tspeciosus Further analyses revealed that T. alpinus was more active earlier in the day, when temperatures were cooler, and that activity patterns for both species changed with increased interspecific co-occurrence. These results are consistent with the greater responsiveness of T. alpinus to changes in environmental conditions. In addition to highlighting the utility of accelerometers for collecting behavioural data, our findings add to a growing body of evidence, suggesting that the greater phenotypic variability displayed by ecological generalists may be critical to in situ responses to environmental change.

Fire history influences large-herbivore behavior at circadian, seasonal, and successional scales

Recurrent environmental changes often prompt animals to alter their behavior leading to predictable patterns across a range of temporal scales. The nested nature of circadian and seasonal behavior complicates tests for effects of rarer disturbance events like fire. Fire can dramatically alter plant community structure, with important knock-on effects at higher trophic levels, but the strength and timing of fire's effects on herbivores remain unclear. We combined prescribed fire treatments with fine-scale location data to quantify herbivore responses to fire across three temporal scales. Between 2001 and 2003, 26 stands of fir (Abies spp.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) were thinned and burned; 27 similar stands were left untreated as experimental controls. Analyzing female elk (Cervus canadensis) locations across 21 yr (1996-2016), we found crepuscular, seasonal, and successional shifts in behavioral responses to fire. Elk displayed "commuting" behavior, avoiding burns during the day, but selecting them at night. Elk selection for burns was strongest in early summer and the relative probability of elk using burns peaked quickly (5 yr post burn) before gradually returning to pre-treatment levels (15 yr post burn). Our results demonstrate that fire history has complex, persistent effects on herbivore behavior, and suggest that herbivores benefit from heterogeneous landscapes containing a range of successional stages.

Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands

Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km2 in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km2) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km2) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km2 (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.

Lizards fail to plastically adjust nesting behavior or thermal tolerance as needed to buffer populations from climate warming

Although observations suggest the potential for phenotypic plasticity to allow adaptive responses to climate change, few experiments have assessed that potential. Modeling suggests that Sceloporus tristichus lizards will need increased nest depth, shade cover, or embryonic thermal tolerance to avoid reproductive failure resulting from climate change. To test for such plasticity, we experimentally examined how maternal temperatures affect nesting behavior and embryonic thermal sensitivity. The temperature regime that females experienced while gravid did not affect nesting behavior, but warmer temperatures at the time of nesting reduced nest depth. Additionally, embryos from heat-stressed mothers displayed increased sensitivity to high-temperature exposure. Simulations suggest that critically low temperatures, rather than high temperatures, historically limit development of our study population. Thus, the plasticity needed to buffer this population has not been under selection. Plasticity will likely fail to compensate for ongoing climate change when such change results in novel stressors.