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Blais BR, Koprowski JL. Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0302981. [PMID: 38709740 PMCID: PMC11073737 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian R. Blais
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
| | - John L. Koprowski
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
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2
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Xu W, Jiang J, Lin HY, Chen TY, Zhang S, Wang T. Assessment of the impact of climate change on endangered conifer tree species by considering climate and soil dual suitability and interspecific competition. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 877:162722. [PMID: 36934927 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162722] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2022] [Revised: 03/04/2023] [Accepted: 03/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate change results in the habitat loss of many conifer tree species and jeopardizes species biodiversity and forest ecological functions. Delineating suitable habitats for tree species via climate niche model (CNM) is widely used to predict the impact of climate change and develop conservation and management strategies. However, the robustness of CNM is broadly debated as it usually does not consider soil and competition factors. Here we developed a new approach to combine soil variables with CNM and evaluate interspecific competition potential in the niche overlapping areas. We used an endangered conifer species - Chamaecyparis formosensis (red cypress) - as a case study to predict the impact of climate change. We developed a novel approach to integrate the climate niche model and soil niche model predictions and considered interspecific competition to predict the impacts of climate change on tree species. Our results show that the suitable habitat for red cypress would decrease significantly in the future with an additional threat from the competition of an oak tree species. Our approach and results may represent significant implications in making conservation strategies and evaluating the impacts of climate change, and providing the direction of the refinement of the ecological niche model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenhuan Xu
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Jing Jiang
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Huan-Yu Lin
- Taiwan Forestry Research Institute, 53 Nanhai Rd., Taipei 100, Taiwan; Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, National Ilan University, 1 Shennong Rd., Section 1, Yilan City, Yilan County 260, Taiwan
| | - Tze-Ying Chen
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, National Ilan University, 1 Shennong Rd., Section 1, Yilan City, Yilan County 260, Taiwan
| | - Shiyi Zhang
- Asia-Pacific Network for Sustainable Forest Management and Rehabilitation, Beijing 100102, People's Republic of China
| | - Tongli Wang
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
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3
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Testolin R, Dalmonech D, Marano G, Bagnara M, D'Andrea E, Matteucci G, Noce S, Collalti A. Simulating diverse forest management options in a changing climate on a Pinus nigra subsp. laricio plantation in Southern Italy. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 857:159361. [PMID: 36252656 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 10/07/2022] [Accepted: 10/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Mediterranean pine plantations provide several ecosystem services but are vulnerable to climate change. Forest management might play a strategic role in the adaptation of Mediterranean forests, but the joint effect of climate change and diverse management options have seldom been investigated together. Here, we simulated the development of a Laricio pine (Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) stand in the Bonis watershed (southern Italy) from its establishment in 1958 up to 2095 using a state-of-the-science process-based forest model. The model was run under three climate scenarios corresponding to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration and warming, and six management options with different goals, including wood production and renaturalization. We analysed the effect of climate change on annual carbon fluxes (i.e., gross and net primary production) and stocks (i.e., basal area, standing and harvested carbon woody stocks) of the autotrophic compartment, as well as the impact of different management options compared to a no management baseline. Results show that higher temperatures (+3 to +5 °C) and lower precipitation (-20 % to -22 %) will trigger a decrease in net primary productivity in the second half of the century. Compared to no management, the other options had a moderate effect on carbon fluxes over the whole simulation (between -14 % and +11 %). While standing woody biomass was reduced by thinning interventions and the shelterwood system (between -5 % and -41 %), overall carbon stocks including the harvested wood were maximized (between +41 % and +56 %). Results highlight that management exerts greater effects on the carbon budget of Laricio pine plantations than climate change alone, and that climate change and management are largely independent (i.e., no strong interaction effects). Therefore, appropriate silvicultural strategies might enhance potential carbon stocks and improve forest conditions, with cascading positive effects on the provision of ecosystem services in Mediterranean pine plantations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Riccardo Testolin
- National Research Council of Italy, Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy; BIOME Lab., Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Via Irnerio 42, 40126 Bologna, Italy; Centro Interuniversitario per la Biodiversità Vegetale Big Data - PLANT DATA, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Via Irnerio 42, 40126 Bologna, Italy; LifeWatch, Italy.
| | - Daniela Dalmonech
- National Research Council of Italy, Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy
| | - Gina Marano
- National Research Council of Italy, Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy; Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Maurizio Bagnara
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiKF), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt Am Main, Germany
| | - Ettore D'Andrea
- National Research Council of Italy, Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems (CNR-IRET), Via G. Marconi n. 2, 05010 Porano, Italy
| | - Giorgio Matteucci
- National Research Council of Italy, Institute of BioEconomy (CNR-IBE), via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy
| | - Sergio Noce
- Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Division Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (CMCC-IAFES), 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Alessio Collalti
- National Research Council of Italy, Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy
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De Marco A, Sicard P, Feng Z, Agathokleous E, Alonso R, Araminiene V, Augustatis A, Badea O, Beasley JC, Branquinho C, Bruckman VJ, Collalti A, David‐Schwartz R, Domingos M, Du E, Garcia Gomez H, Hashimoto S, Hoshika Y, Jakovljevic T, McNulty S, Oksanen E, Omidi Khaniabadi Y, Prescher A, Saitanis CJ, Sase H, Schmitz A, Voigt G, Watanabe M, Wood MD, Kozlov MV, Paoletti E. Strategic roadmap to assess forest vulnerability under air pollution and climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:5062-5085. [PMID: 35642454 PMCID: PMC9541114 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2021] [Revised: 03/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/18/2022] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Although it is an integral part of global change, most of the research addressing the effects of climate change on forests have overlooked the role of environmental pollution. Similarly, most studies investigating the effects of air pollutants on forests have generally neglected the impacts of climate change. We review the current knowledge on combined air pollution and climate change effects on global forest ecosystems and identify several key research priorities as a roadmap for the future. Specifically, we recommend (1) the establishment of much denser array of monitoring sites, particularly in the South Hemisphere; (2) further integration of ground and satellite monitoring; (3) generation of flux-based standards and critical levels taking into account the sensitivity of dominant forest tree species; (4) long-term monitoring of N, S, P cycles and base cations deposition together at global scale; (5) intensification of experimental studies, addressing the combined effects of different abiotic factors on forests by assuring a better representation of taxonomic and functional diversity across the ~73,000 tree species on Earth; (6) more experimental focus on phenomics and genomics; (7) improved knowledge on key processes regulating the dynamics of radionuclides in forest systems; and (8) development of models integrating air pollution and climate change data from long-term monitoring programs.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Zhaozhong Feng
- Key Laboratory of Agro‐Meteorology of Jiangsu Province, School of Applied MeteorologyNanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyNanjingChina
| | - Evgenios Agathokleous
- Key Laboratory of Agro‐Meteorology of Jiangsu Province, School of Applied MeteorologyNanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyNanjingChina
| | - Rocio Alonso
- Ecotoxicology of Air Pollution, CIEMATMadridSpain
| | - Valda Araminiene
- Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and ForestryKaunasLithuania
| | - Algirdas Augustatis
- Faculty of Forest Sciences and EcologyVytautas Magnus UniversityKaunasLithuania
| | - Ovidiu Badea
- “Marin Drăcea” National Institute for Research and Development in ForestryVoluntariRomania
- Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering“Transilvania” UniversityBraşovRomania
| | - James C. Beasley
- Savannah River Ecology Laboratory and Warnell School of Forestry and Natural ResourcesUniversity of GeorgiaAikenSouth CarolinaUSA
| | - Cristina Branquinho
- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de CiênciasUniversidade de LisboaLisbonPortugal
| | - Viktor J. Bruckman
- Commission for Interdisciplinary Ecological StudiesAustrian Academy of SciencesViennaAustria
| | | | | | - Marisa Domingos
- Instituto de BotanicaNucleo de Pesquisa em EcologiaSao PauloBrazil
| | - Enzai Du
- Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
| | | | - Shoji Hashimoto
- Department of Forest SoilsForestry and Forest Products Research InstituteTsukubaJapan
| | | | | | | | - Elina Oksanen
- Department of Environmental and Biological SciencesUniversity of Eastern FinlandJoensuuFinland
| | - Yusef Omidi Khaniabadi
- Department of Environmental Health EngineeringIndustrial Medial and Health, Petroleum Industry Health Organization (PIHO)AhvazIran
| | | | - Costas J. Saitanis
- Lab of Ecology and Environmental ScienceAgricultural University of AthensAthensGreece
| | - Hiroyuki Sase
- Ecological Impact Research DepartmentAsia Center for Air Pollution Research (ACAP)NiigataJapan
| | - Andreas Schmitz
- State Agency for Nature, Environment and Consumer Protection of North Rhine‐WestphaliaRecklinghausenGermany
| | | | - Makoto Watanabe
- Institute of AgricultureTokyo University of Agriculture and Technology (TUAT)FuchuJapan
| | - Michael D. Wood
- School of Science, Engineering and EnvironmentUniversity of SalfordSalfordUK
| | | | - Elena Paoletti
- Department of Forest SoilsForestry and Forest Products Research InstituteTsukubaJapan
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Wen X, Zhao G, Cheng X, Chang G, Dong X, Lin X. Prediction of the potential distribution pattern of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) under climate change based on ensemble modelling. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2022; 78:3128-3134. [PMID: 35442553 DOI: 10.1002/ps.6939] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2021] [Revised: 04/15/2022] [Accepted: 04/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rodent infestation is a global biological problem. Rodents are widely distributed worldwide, cause harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry production and spread a variety of natural focal diseases. In this study, 10 ecological niche models were combined into an ensemble model to assess the distribution of suitable habitats for Rhombomys opimus and to predict the impact of future climate change on the distribution of R. opimus under low, medium and high socioeconomic pathway scenarios of CMIP6. RESULTS In general, with the exception of extreme climates (2090-SSP585), the current and potential future ranges of R. opimus habitat are maintained at approximately 220 × 104 km2 . In combination with human footprint data, the potential distribution area of R. opimus was found to coincide with areas with a moderate human footprint. In addition, this distribution area will gradually shift to higher-latitude regions, and the suitable habitat area of R. opimus will gradually shrink in China, Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan while increasing in Mongolia and Kazakhstan. CONCLUSIONS These results help identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of R. opimus and provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to protect against future ecological and human health risks. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuanye Wen
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang, China
| | - Guanghua Zhao
- College of Life Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen, China
| | - Xiaotian Cheng
- The Station of Forest Seedling Quarantine and Pest Management, Changji, China
| | - Guobin Chang
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang, China
| | - Xiaobo Dong
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang, China
| | - Xiao Lin
- Center for Biological Disaster Prevention and Control, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Shenyang, China
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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of the Dominant Tree Species in Greece. PLANTS 2022; 11:plants11121616. [PMID: 35736767 PMCID: PMC9228314 DOI: 10.3390/plants11121616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2022] [Revised: 06/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is affecting species distribution and ecosystem form and function. Forests provide a range of ecosystem services, and understanding their vulnerability to climate change is important for designing effective adaptation strategies. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used to derive habitat suitability maps under current conditions and project species distribution shifts under climate change. In this study, we model the current and future habitat suitability of the dominant tree species in Greece (Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus nigra, Quercus ilex, Quercus pubescens, Quercus frainetto and Fagus sylvatica), based on species-specific presence data from the EU-Forest database, enhanced with data from Greece that is currently under-represented in terms of tree species occurrence points. By including these additional presence data, areas with relatively drier conditions for some of the study species were included in the SDM development, yielding a potentially lower vulnerability under climate change conditions. SDMs were developed for each taxon using climate and soil data at a resolution of ~1 km2. Model performance was assessed under current conditions and was found to adequately simulate potential distributions. Subsequently, the models were used to project the potential distribution of each species under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 time periods. Under climate change scenarios, a reduction in habitat-suitable areas was predicted for most study species, with higher elevation taxa experiencing more pronounced potential habitat shrinkages. An exception was the endemic A. cephalonica and its sister species A. borisii-regis, which, although currently found at mid and high elevations, seem able to maintain their potential distribution under most climate change scenarios. Our findings suggest that climate change could significantly affect the distribution and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Greece, with important ecological, economic and social implications, and thus adequate mitigation measures should be implemented.
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Zhang Y, Steiner AL. Projected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States. Nat Commun 2022; 13:1234. [PMID: 35292649 PMCID: PMC8924258 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28764-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2021] [Accepted: 02/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Atmospheric conditions affect the release of anemophilous pollen, and the timing and magnitude will be altered by climate change. As simulated with a pollen emission model and future climate data, warmer end-of-century temperatures (4-6 K) shift the start of spring emissions 10-40 days earlier and summer/fall weeds and grasses 5-15 days later and lengthen the season duration. Phenological shifts depend on the temperature response of individual taxa, with convergence in some regions and divergence in others. Temperature and precipitation alter daily pollen emission maxima by -35 to 40% and increase the annual total pollen emission by 16-40% due to changes in phenology and temperature-driven pollen production. Increasing atmospheric CO2 may increase pollen production, and doubling production in conjunction with climate increases end-of-century emissions up to 200%. Land cover change modifies the distribution of pollen emitters, yet the effects are relatively small (<10%) compared to climate or CO2. These simulations indicate that increasing pollen and longer seasons will increase the likelihood of seasonal allergies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yingxiao Zhang
- Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
| | - Allison L Steiner
- Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
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EU-Trees4F, a dataset on the future distribution of European tree species. Sci Data 2022; 9:37. [PMID: 35115529 PMCID: PMC8813948 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01128-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2021] [Accepted: 12/15/2021] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
We present "EU-Trees4F", a dataset of current and future potential distributions of 67 tree species in Europe at 10 km spatial resolution. We provide both climatically suitable future areas of occupancy and the future distribution expected under a scenario of natural dispersal for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three time steps (2035, 2065, and 2095). Also, we provide a version of the dataset where tree ranges are limited by future land use. These data-driven projections were made using an ensemble species distribution model calibrated using EU-Forest, a comprehensive dataset of tree species occurrences for Europe, and driven by seven bioclimatic parameters derived from EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations, and two soil parameters. "EU-Trees4F", can benefit various research fields, including forestry, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and bio-economy. Possible applications include the calibration or benchmarking of dynamic vegetation models, or informing forest adaptation strategies based on assisted tree migration. Given the multiple European policy initiatives related to forests, this dataset represents a timely and valuable resource to support policymaking.
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de Wergifosse L, André F, Goosse H, Boczon A, Cecchini S, Ciceu A, Collalti A, Cools N, D'Andrea E, De Vos B, Hamdi R, Ingerslev M, Knudsen MA, Kowalska A, Leca S, Matteucci G, Nord-Larsen T, Sanders TG, Schmitz A, Termonia P, Vanguelova E, Van Schaeybroeck B, Verstraeten A, Vesterdal L, Jonard M. Simulating tree growth response to climate change in structurally diverse oak and beech forests. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 806:150422. [PMID: 34852431 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2021] [Revised: 08/23/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
This study aimed to simulate oak and beech forest growth under various scenarios of climate change and to evaluate how the forest response depends on site properties and particularly on stand characteristics using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. First, this model was evaluated on a wide range of site conditions. We used data from 36 long-term forest monitoring plots to initialize, calibrate, and evaluate HETEROFOR. This evaluation showed that HETEROFOR predicts individual tree radial growth and height increment reasonably well under different growing conditions when evaluated on independent sites. In our simulations under constant CO2 concentration ([CO2]cst) for the 2071-2100 period, climate change induced a moderate net primary production (NPP) gain in continental and mountainous zones and no change in the oceanic zone. The NPP changes were negatively affected by air temperature during the vegetation period and by the annual rainfall decrease. To a lower extent, they were influenced by soil extractable water reserve and stand characteristics. These NPP changes were positively affected by longer vegetation periods and negatively by drought for beech and larger autotrophic respiration costs for oak. For both species, the NPP gain was much larger with rising CO2 concentration ([CO2]var) mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Even if the species composition and structure had a limited influence on the forest response to climate change, they explained a large part of the NPP variability (44% and 34% for [CO2]cst and [CO2]var, respectively) compared to the climate change scenario (5% and 29%) and the inter-annual climate variability (20% and 16%). This gives the forester the possibility to act on the productivity of broadleaved forests and prepare them for possible adverse effects of climate change by reinforcing their resilience.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louis de Wergifosse
- Earth and Life Institute: Environmental Sciences, UCLouvain, 1, Croix du Sud, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Earth and Life Institute: Earth and Climate, UCLouvain, 3, Place Louis Pasteur, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
| | - Frédéric André
- Earth and Life Institute: Environmental Sciences, UCLouvain, 1, Croix du Sud, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Hugues Goosse
- Earth and Life Institute: Earth and Climate, UCLouvain, 3, Place Louis Pasteur, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Andrzej Boczon
- Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, ul. Braci Lesnej 3, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland
| | - Sébastien Cecchini
- Office National des Forêts, Département Recherche-Développement-Innovation, Bâtiment B, Boulevard de Constance, 77300 Fontainebleau, France
| | - Albert Ciceu
- Forest Management Department, National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry INCDS Marin Drăcea, 128, Bulevardul Eroilor, 077190 Voluntari, Romania; Department of Forest Engineering, Forest Management Planning and Terrestrial Measurements, Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering, "Transilvania" University, 1 Ludwig van Beethoven Str., 500123 Braşov, Romania
| | - Alessio Collalti
- Forest Modelling Lab., Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, PG, Italy; Department of Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest Systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, via San Camillo de Lellis, 01100 Viterbo, VT, Italy
| | - Nathalie Cools
- Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), 4, Gaverstraat, 9500 Geraardsbergen, Belgium
| | - Ettore D'Andrea
- Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, National Research Council of Italy 8 (CNR-ISAFOM), P. le Enrico Fermi 1 Loc. Porto del Granatello, 80055 Portici, NA, Italy
| | - Bruno De Vos
- Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), 4, Gaverstraat, 9500 Geraardsbergen, Belgium
| | - Rafiq Hamdi
- Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, 3, Avenue circulaire, 1180 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Morten Ingerslev
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Morten Alban Knudsen
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Anna Kowalska
- Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, ul. Braci Lesnej 3, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland
| | - Stefan Leca
- Forest Management Department, National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry INCDS Marin Drăcea, 128, Bulevardul Eroilor, 077190 Voluntari, Romania
| | - Giorgio Matteucci
- Institute for BioEconomy, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IBE), via Madonna del Piano, 10 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, FI, Italy
| | - Thomas Nord-Larsen
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Tanja Gm Sanders
- Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems, Alfred-Moeller-Str. 1, Haus 41/42, 16225 Eberswalde, Germany
| | - Andreas Schmitz
- Department of Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, University of Göttingen, 1, Büsgenweg, 37077 Göttingen, Germany; State Agency for Nature, Environment and Consumer Protection of North Rhine-Westphalia, 10, Leibnizstraße, 45659 Recklinghausen, Germany; Department of Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, University of Göttingen, 1, Büsgenweg, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Piet Termonia
- Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, 3, Avenue circulaire, 1180 Brussels, Belgium; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, 86, Proeftuinstraat, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
| | - Elena Vanguelova
- Centre of Ecosystem, Society and Biosecurity, Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham, Surrey GU10 4LH, UK
| | - Bert Van Schaeybroeck
- Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, 3, Avenue circulaire, 1180 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Arne Verstraeten
- Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), 4, Gaverstraat, 9500 Geraardsbergen, Belgium
| | - Lars Vesterdal
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Mathieu Jonard
- Earth and Life Institute: Environmental Sciences, UCLouvain, 1, Croix du Sud, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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Rojo J, Oteros J, Picornell A, Maya-Manzano JM, Damialis A, Zink K, Werchan M, Werchan B, Smith M, Menzel A, Timpf S, Traidl-Hoffmann C, Bergmann KC, Schmidt-Weber CB, Buters J. Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:5934-5949. [PMID: 34363285 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2021] [Accepted: 07/28/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems will worsen public health issues like allergic diseases. Birch trees (Betula spp.) are important sources of aeroallergens in Central and Northern Europe. Birches are vulnerable to climate change as these trees are sensitive to increased temperatures and summer droughts. This study aims to examine the effect of climate change on airborne birch pollen concentrations in Central Europe using Bavaria in Southern Germany as a case study. Pollen data from 28 monitoring stations in Bavaria were used in this study, with time series of up 30 years long. An integrative approach was used to model airborne birch pollen concentrations taking into account drivers influencing birch tree abundance and birch pollen production and projections made according to different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Birch tree abundance is projected to decrease in parts of Bavaria at different rates, depending on the climate scenario, particularly in current centres of the species distribution. Climate change is expected to result in initial increases in pollen load but, due to the reduction in birch trees, the amount of airborne birch pollen will decrease at lower altitudes. Conversely, higher altitude areas will experience expansions in birch tree distribution and subsequent increases in airborne birch pollen in the future. Even considering restrictions for migration rates, increases in pollen load are likely in Southwestern areas, where positive trends have already been detected during the last three decades. Integrating models for the distribution and abundance of pollen sources and the drivers that control birch pollen production allowed us to model airborne birch pollen concentrations in the future. The magnitude of changes depends on location and climate change scenario.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesús Rojo
- Center of Allergy & Environment (ZAUM), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Technische Universität München/Helmholtz Center Munich, Munich, Germany
- Department of Pharmacology, Pharmacognosy and Botany, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Jose Oteros
- Department of Botany, Ecology and Plant Physiology, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
| | - Antonio Picornell
- Department of Botany and Plant Physiology, University of Malaga, Malaga, Spain
| | - José M Maya-Manzano
- Center of Allergy & Environment (ZAUM), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Technische Universität München/Helmholtz Center Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Athanasios Damialis
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
- Department of Environmental Medicine, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
- Helmholtz Center Munich - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Katrin Zink
- Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt, Schwerpunkt Klima und Energie, Referat KliZ: Klima-Zentrum, Hof/Saale, Germany
| | - Matthias Werchan
- German Pollen Information Service Foundation (PID), Berlin, Germany
| | - Barbora Werchan
- German Pollen Information Service Foundation (PID), Berlin, Germany
| | - Matt Smith
- School of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester, UK
| | - Annette Menzel
- School of Life Sciences, Technische Universität München, Freising, Germany
| | - Sabine Timpf
- Institute of Geography, Geoinformatics Group, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Claudia Traidl-Hoffmann
- Department of Environmental Medicine, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
- Helmholtz Center Munich - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Karl-Christian Bergmann
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany
| | - Carsten B Schmidt-Weber
- Center of Allergy & Environment (ZAUM), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Technische Universität München/Helmholtz Center Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Jeroen Buters
- Center of Allergy & Environment (ZAUM), Member of the German Center for Lung Research (DZL), Technische Universität München/Helmholtz Center Munich, Munich, Germany
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11
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D'Andrea E, Scartazza A, Battistelli A, Collalti A, Proietti S, Rezaie N, Matteucci G, Moscatello S. Unravelling resilience mechanisms in forests: role of non-structural carbohydrates in responding to extreme weather events. TREE PHYSIOLOGY 2021; 41:1808-1818. [PMID: 33823054 DOI: 10.1093/treephys/tpab044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2020] [Revised: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 03/30/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. We hypothesized that tree carbon reserves are crucial for resilience of beech, buffering the source-sink imbalance due to late frosts and summer droughts, and that different components of non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) play specific roles in coping with stressful situations. To assess the compound effects on mature trees of two extreme weather events, first a late frost in spring 2016 and then a drought in summer 2017, we monitored the phenology, radial growth and the dynamics of starch and soluble sugars in a Mediterranean beech forest. A growth reduction of 85% was observed after the spring late frost, yet not after the drought event. We observed a strong impact of late frost on starch, which also affected its dynamic at the beginning of the subsequent vegetative season. In 2017, the increase of soluble sugars, associated with starch hydrolysis, played a crucial role in coping with the severe summer drought. Non-structural carbohydrates helped to counteract the negative effects of both events, supporting plant survival and buffering source-sink imbalances under stressful conditions. Our findings indicate a strong trade-off between growth and NSC storage in trees. Overall, our results highlight the key role of NSCs on beech trees, response to extreme weather events, confirming the resilience of this species to highly stressful events. These insights are useful for assessing how forests may respond to the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes in the Mediterranean area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ettore D'Andrea
- Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAFOM), P. le Enrico Fermi 1 - Loc. Porto del Granatello, 80055 Portici, Naples, Italy
| | - Andrea Scartazza
- Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IRET), Via Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa, Italy
| | - Alberto Battistelli
- Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IRET), via Marconi 2, 05010 Porano, Terni, Italy
| | - Alessio Collalti
- Forest Modelling Laboratory, Institute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-ISAFOM), Via Madonna Alta 128, 06128 Perugia, Italy
- Department of Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest Systems (DIBAF), University of Tuscia, via San Camillo de Lellis, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Simona Proietti
- Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IRET), via Marconi 2, 05010 Porano, Terni, Italy
| | - Negar Rezaie
- Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IRET), via Marconi 2, 05010 Porano, Terni, Italy
| | - Giorgio Matteucci
- Institute for BioEconomy, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IBE), via Madonna del Piano, 10 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy
| | - Stefano Moscatello
- Research Institute on Terrestrial Ecosystems, National Research Council of Italy (CNR-IRET), via Marconi 2, 05010 Porano, Terni, Italy
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12
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Optimization of species distribution models using a genetic algorithm for simulating climate change effects on Zagros forests in Iran. ECOL INFORM 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
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13
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Maréchaux I, Langerwisch F, Huth A, Bugmann H, Morin X, Reyer CP, Seidl R, Collalti A, Dantas de Paula M, Fischer R, Gutsch M, Lexer MJ, Lischke H, Rammig A, Rödig E, Sakschewski B, Taubert F, Thonicke K, Vacchiano G, Bohn FJ. Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:3746-3770. [PMID: 33976773 PMCID: PMC8093733 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7391] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2020] [Revised: 02/04/2021] [Accepted: 02/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio-temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations.We describe the development that different forest modelling communities have followed to underpin the leverage that simulation models offer for advancing our understanding of forest ecosystems.Using three widely applied but contrasting approaches - species distribution models, individual-based forest models, and dynamic global vegetation models - as examples, we show how scientific and technical advances have led models to transgress their initial objectives and limitations. We provide an overview of recent model applications on current important ecological topics and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.Synthesis. This overview shows that forest models, due to their complementarity and mutual enrichment, represent an invaluable toolkit to address a wide range of fundamental and applied ecological questions, hence fostering a deeper understanding of forest dynamics in the context of global change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Fanny Langerwisch
- Department of Ecology and Environmental SciencesPalacký University OlomoucOlomoucCzech Republic
- Department of Water Resources and Environmental ModelingCzech University of Life SciencesPragueCzech Republic
| | - Andreas Huth
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research ‐ UFZLeipzigGermany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle‐Jena‐LeipzigLeipzigGermany
- Institute of Environmental Systems ResearchOsnabrück UniversityOsnabrückGermany
| | - Harald Bugmann
- Forest EcologyInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZürichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Xavier Morin
- EPHECEFECNRSUniv MontpellierUniv Paul Valéry MontpellierIRDMontpellierFrance
| | - Christopher P.O. Reyer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU)ViennaAustria
- TUM School of Life SciencesTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Alessio Collalti
- Forest Modelling LabInstitute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the MediterraneanNational Research Council of Italy (CNR‐ISAFOM)Perugia (PG)Italy
- Department of Innovation in Biological, Agro‐food and Forest SystemsUniversity of TusciaViterboItaly
| | | | - Rico Fischer
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research ‐ UFZLeipzigGermany
| | - Martin Gutsch
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | | | - Heike Lischke
- Dynamic MacroecologyLand Change ScienceSwiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
| | - Anja Rammig
- TUM School of Life SciencesTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Edna Rödig
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research ‐ UFZLeipzigGermany
| | - Boris Sakschewski
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
| | | | - Kirsten Thonicke
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdamGermany
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14
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Combining Satellite Remote Sensing and Climate Data in Species Distribution Models to Improve the Conservation of Iberian White Oaks (Quercus L.). ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi9120735] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
The Iberian Peninsula hosts a high diversity of oak species, being a hot-spot for the conservation of European White Oaks (Quercus) due to their environmental heterogeneity and its critical role as a phylogeographic refugium. Identifying and ranking the drivers that shape the distribution of White Oaks in Iberia requires that environmental variables operating at distinct scales are considered. These include climate, but also ecosystem functioning attributes (EFAs) related to energy–matter exchanges that characterize land cover types under various environmental settings, at finer scales. Here, we used satellite-based EFAs and climate variables in species distribution models (SDMs) to assess how variables related to ecosystem functioning improve our understanding of current distributions and the identification of suitable areas for White Oak species in Iberia. We developed consensus ensemble SDMs targeting a set of thirteen oaks, including both narrow endemic and widespread taxa. Models combining EFAs and climate variables obtained a higher performance and predictive ability (true-skill statistic (TSS): 0.88, sensitivity: 99.6, specificity: 96.3), in comparison to the climate-only models (TSS: 0.86, sens.: 96.1, spec.: 90.3) and EFA-only models (TSS: 0.73, sens.: 91.2, spec.: 82.1). Overall, narrow endemic species obtained higher predictive performance using combined models (TSS: 0.96, sens.: 99.6, spec.: 96.3) in comparison to widespread oaks (TSS: 0.80, sens.: 92.6, spec.: 87.7). The Iberian White Oaks show a high dependence on precipitation and the inter-quartile range of Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) (i.e., seasonal water availability) which appears to be the most important EFA variable. Spatial projections of climate–EFA combined models contribute to identify the major diversity hotspots for White Oaks in Iberia, holding higher values of cumulative habitat suitability and species richness. We discuss the implications of these findings for guiding the long-term conservation of Iberian White Oaks and provide spatially explicit geospatial information about each oak species (or set of species) relevant for developing biogeographic conservation frameworks.
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15
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Noce S, Caporaso L, Santini M. A new global dataset of bioclimatic indicators. Sci Data 2020; 7:398. [PMID: 33199736 PMCID: PMC7670417 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00726-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2020] [Accepted: 10/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
This study presents a new global gridded dataset of bioclimatic indicators at 0.5° by 0.5° resolution for historical and future conditions. The dataset, called CMCC-BioClimInd, provides a set of 35 bioclimatic indices, expressed as mean values over each time interval, derived from post-processing both climate reanalysis for historical period (1960-1999) and an ensemble of 11 bias corrected CMIP5 simulations under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios for future climate projections along two periods (2040-2079 and 2060-2099). This new dataset complements the availability of spatialized bioclimatic information, crucial aspect in many ecological and environmental wide scale applications and for several disciplines, including forestry, biodiversity conservation, plant and landscape ecology. The data of individual indicators are publicly available for download in the commonly used Network Common Data Form 4 (NetCDF4) format.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergio Noce
- Division on Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Viterbo, Italy.
| | - Luca Caporaso
- Division on Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Viterbo, Italy
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ISMAR), Centro Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Rome, Italy
| | - Monia Santini
- Division on Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Viterbo, Italy
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16
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Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11090934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
Forests provide a range of ecosystem services essential for human wellbeing. In a changing climate, forest management is expected to play a fundamental role by preserving the functioning of forest ecosystems and enhancing the adaptive processes. Understanding and quantifying the future forest coverage in view of climate changes is therefore crucial in order to develop appropriate forest management strategies. However, the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems remain largely unknown due to the uncertainties lying behind the future prediction of models. To fill this knowledge gap, here we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the forest coverage in Italy using species distribution modelling technique. The spatial distribution of 19 forest tree species in the country was extracted from the last national forest inventory and modelled using nine Species Distribution Models algorithms, six different Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and one Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for 2050s under an intermediate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5). The single species predictions were then compared and used to build a future forest cover map for the country. Overall, no sensible variation in the spatial distribution of the total forested area was predicted with compensatory effects in forest coverage of different tree species, whose magnitude and patters appear largely modulated by the driving climate models. The analyses reported an unchanged amount of total land suitability to forest growth in mountain areas while smaller values were predicted for valleys and floodplains than high-elevation areas. Pure woods were predicted as the most influenced when compared with mixed stands which are characterized by a greater species richness and, therefore, a supposed higher level of biodiversity and resilience to climate change threatens. Pure softwood stands along the Apennines chain in central Italy (e.g., Pinus, Abies) were more sensitive than hardwoods (e.g., Fagus, Quercus) and generally characterized by pure and even-aged planted forests, much further away from their natural structure where admixture with other tree species is more likely. In this context a sustainable forest management strategy may reduce the potential impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. Silvicultural practices should be aimed at increasing the species richness and favoring hardwoods currently growing as dominating species under conifers canopy, stimulating the natural regeneration, gene flow, and supporting (spatial) migration processes.
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17
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Xiao J, Eziz A, Zhang H, Wang Z, Tang Z, Fang J. Responses of four dominant dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin, northwest China. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:13596-13607. [PMID: 31871669 PMCID: PMC6912881 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2019] [Revised: 09/13/2019] [Accepted: 10/10/2019] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM Dryland ecosystems are exceedingly sensitive to climate change. Desertification induced by both climate changes and human activities seriously threatens dryland vegetation. However, the impact of climate change on distribution of dryland plant species has not been well documented. Here, we studied the potential distribution of four representative dryland plant species (Haloxylon ammodendron, Anabasis aphylla, Calligonum mongolicum, and Populus euphratica) under current and future climate scenarios in a temperate desert region, aiming to improve our understanding of the responses of dryland plant species to climate change and provide guidance for dryland conservation and afforestation. LOCATION Junggar Basin, a large desert region in northwestern China. METHODS Occurrence data of the studied species were collected from an extensive field investigation of 2,516 sampling sites in the Junggar Basin. Ensemble species distribution models using 10 algorithms were developed and used to predict the potential distribution of each studied species under current and future climate scenarios. RESULT Haloxylon ammodendron and A. aphylla were likely to lose most of their current suitable habitats under future climate scenarios, while C. mongolicum and P. euphratica were likely to expand their ranges or remain relatively stationary. Variable importance evaluation showed that the most important climate variables influencing species distribution differed across the studied species. These results may be explained by the different ecophysiological characteristics and adaptation strategies to the environment of the four studied species. MAIN CONCLUSIONS We explored the responses of the representative dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin in northwestern China. The different changes in suitability of different species imply that policymakers may need to reconsider the selection and combination of the afforestation species used in this area. This study can provide valuable reference for the management and conservation of dryland ecosystems under future climate change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Xiao
- Institute of EcologyCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of EducationPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Anwar Eziz
- Institute of EcologyCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of EducationPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Heng Zhang
- Institute of EcologyCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of EducationPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Zhiheng Wang
- Institute of EcologyCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of EducationPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Zhiyao Tang
- Institute of EcologyCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of EducationPeking UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Jingyun Fang
- Institute of EcologyCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of EducationPeking UniversityBeijingChina
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19
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Evaluating WorldClim Version 1 (1961–1990) as the Baseline for Sustainable Use of Forest and Environmental Resources in a Changing Climate. SUSTAINABILITY 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/su11113043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
WorldClim version 1 is a high-resolution, global climate gridded dataset covering 1961–1990; a “normal” climate. It has been widely used for ecological studies thanks to its free availability and global coverage. This study aims to evaluate the quality of WorldClim data by quantifying any discrepancies by comparison with an independent dataset of measured temperature and precipitation records across Europe. BIO1 (mean annual temperature, MAT) and BIO12 (mean total annual precipitation, MAP) were used as proxies to evaluate the spatial accuracy of the WorldClim grids. While good representativeness was detected for MAT, the study demonstrated a bias with respect to MAP. The average difference between WorldClim predictions and climate observations was around +0.2 °C for MAT and −48.7 mm for MAP, with large variability. The regression analysis revealed a good correlation and adequate proportion of explained variance for MAT (adjusted R2 = 0.856) but results for MAP were poor, with just 64% of the variance explained (adjusted R2 = 0.642). Moreover no spatial structure was found across Europe, nor any statistical relationship with elevation, latitude, or longitude, the environmental predictors used to generate climate surfaces. A detectable spatial autocorrelation was only detectable for the two most thoroughly sampled countries (Germany and Sweden). Although further adjustments might be evaluated by means of geostatistical methods (i.e., kriging), the huge environmental variability of the European environment deeply stressed the WorldClim database. Overall, these results show the importance of an adequate spatial structure of meteorological stations as fundamental to improve the reliability of climate surfaces and derived products of the research (i.e., statistical models, future projections).
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Noce S, Caporaso L, Santini M. Climate Change and Geographic Ranges: The Implications for Russian Forests. Front Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
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21
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Forest Fragmentation and Connectivity in Virginia Between 2001 and 2011. JOURNAL OF LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 2019. [DOI: 10.2478/jlecol-2018-0014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
With an annual population growth rate currently estimated at about 5 %, Virginia presents an ideal case study for anthropogenic environmental disturbances. Urbanization as a result of increasing human activities has led to fragmentation of many crucial habitats, especially forests. Analysis of the extent to which forest fragmentation and connectivity have occurred in Virginia and corresponding changes associated with these processes, is relevant for conserving forest habitats and the biodiversity that they support. This study applies FRAGSTATS, a software system developed to assess forest fragmentation and connectivity, in combination with ArcGIS, to identify changes in forest patch metrics for Virginia over a ten-year interval (2001, 2006 and 2011) using National Land Cover Datasets (NLCD) maps as data source. Results show that, over ten years, forest patches have significantly declined in size, while the number of forest patches and total length of edge areas have increased over time. Results of this study show that road density in Virginia has no significant effect on forest fragmentation between 2001 and 2011. Analysis using ArcGIS revealed that sizes of core forest areas in Virginia are declining, and that these reductions match local topographic slope. This is because the steepness of the slope of an area dictates the degree of human activities in that area. These results suggest that urban sprawl associated with areas with gentler slopes, may have significant, long-term consequences for natural forest ecosystems and ultimately, biodiversity conservation.
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22
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Collalti A, Trotta C, Keenan TF, Ibrom A, Bond‐Lamberty B, Grote R, Vicca S, Reyer CPO, Migliavacca M, Veroustraete F, Anav A, Campioli M, Scoccimarro E, Šigut L, Grieco E, Cescatti A, Matteucci G. Thinning Can Reduce Losses in Carbon Use Efficiency and Carbon Stocks in Managed Forests Under Warmer Climate. JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 2018; 10:2427-2452. [PMID: 31007835 PMCID: PMC6472666 DOI: 10.1029/2018ms001275] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2018] [Revised: 09/10/2018] [Accepted: 09/16/2018] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Forest carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio of net to gross primary productivity) represents the fraction of photosynthesis that is not used for plant respiration. Although important, it is often neglected in climate change impact analyses. Here we assess the potential impact of thinning on projected carbon cycle dynamics and implications for forest CUE and its components (i.e., gross and net primary productivity and plant respiration), as well as on forest biomass production. Using a detailed process-based forest ecosystem model forced by climate outputs of five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected future changes in the autotrophic carbon budget of three representative European forests. We focus on changes in CUE and carbon stocks as a result of warming, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and forest thinning. Results show that autotrophic carbon sequestration decreases with forest development, and the decrease is faster with warming and in unthinned forests. This suggests that the combined impacts of climate change and changing CO2 concentrations lead the forests to grow faster, mature earlier, and also die younger. In addition, we show that under future climate conditions, forest thinning could mitigate the decrease in CUE, increase carbon allocation into more recalcitrant woody pools, and reduce physiological-climate-induced mortality risks. Altogether, our results show that thinning can improve the efficacy of forest-based mitigation strategies and should be carefully considered within a portfolio of mitigation options.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessio Collalti
- Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services DivisionFoundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)ViterboItaly
- National Research Council of ItalyInstitute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR‐ISAFOM)RendeItaly
| | - Carlo Trotta
- Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro‐food and Forest SystemsUniversity of TusciaViterboItaly
| | - Trevor F. Keenan
- Earth Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCAUSA
- Department of Environmental Science Policy and ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCAUSA
| | - Andreas Ibrom
- Department Environmental EngineeringTechnical University of Denmark (DTU)LyngbyDenmark
| | - Ben Bond‐Lamberty
- Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryJoint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland‐College ParkCollege ParkMDUSA
| | - Ruediger Grote
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK‐IFU)Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKarlsruheGermany
| | - Sara Vicca
- Centre of Excellence PLECO (Pant and Vegetation Ecology), Department of BiologyUniversity of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium
| | | | | | | | - Alessandro Anav
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
| | - Matteo Campioli
- Department Environmental EngineeringTechnical University of Denmark (DTU)LyngbyDenmark
| | - Enrico Scoccimarro
- Climate Simulation and Prediction DivisionFoundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)BolognaItaly
| | - Ladislav Šigut
- Department of Matter and Energy FluxesGlobal Change Research Institute CASBrnoCzech Republic
| | - Elisa Grieco
- Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services DivisionFoundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)ViterboItaly
| | - Alessandro Cescatti
- Directorate for Sustainable ResourcesEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreIspraItaly
| | - Giorgio Matteucci
- National Research Council of ItalyInstitute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR‐ISAFOM)RendeItaly
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Optimization of the Fuzzy Matter Element Method for Predicting Species Suitability Distribution Based on Environmental Data. SUSTAINABILITY 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/su10103444] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Over the years, with the efforts of many researchers, the field of species distribution model (SDM) has been well explored. The model of fuzzy matter elements (FME), which, combined with GIS to predict species distribution, has received extensive attention since its emergence. Based on previous studies, this paper improved FME, extended the scope of the membership degree and habitat suitability index, and explored the unsuitable areas of species. We have enhanced the limitation effect of key variables on species habitats, making the operation of FME more consistent with biological laws. By optimizing the FME, it could avoid the accumulation of predicted errors with multi-variables, and make the predicted results more reasonable. In this study, Gynostemma pentaphyllum (Thunb.) Makino was used as an example. The experimental process used several major environmental variables (climate, soil, and terrain variables) to predict the habitat suitability distribution of G. pentaphyllum in China for its current and future period, which includes the period of 2050s (average for 2041–2060) and 2070s (average for 2061–2080) under representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5). The results of the analysis showed that the model performed well with a high accuracy by reducing the redundancy of the environmental data. The study could relieve the reliance on a large database of environmental information and propose a new approach for protecting the G. pentaphyllum in unsuitable areas under climate change.
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Noce S, Collalti A, Santini M. Likelihood of changes in forest species suitability, distribution, and diversity under future climate: The case of Southern Europe. Ecol Evol 2017; 7:9358-9375. [PMID: 29187974 PMCID: PMC5696419 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2017] [Revised: 06/27/2017] [Accepted: 08/03/2017] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Forest conservation strategies and plans can be unsuccessful if the new habitat conditions determined by climate change are not considered. Our work aims at investigating the likelihood of future suitability, distribution and diversity for some common European forest species under the projected changes in climate, focusing on Southern Europe. We combine an Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) driven by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to produce maps of future climate-driven habitat suitability for ten categories of forest species and two time horizons. For each forest category and time horizon, ten maps of future distribution (5 GCMs by 2 RCPs) are thus combined in a single suitability map supplied with information about the "likelihood" adopting the IPCC terminology based on consensus among projections. Then, the statistical significance of spatially aggregated changes in forest composition at local and regional level is analyzed. Finally, we discuss the importance, among SDMs, that environmental predictors seem to have in influencing forest distribution. Future impacts of climate change appear to be diversified across forest categories. A strong change in forest regional distribution and local diversity is projected to take place, as some forest categories will find more suitable conditions in previously unsuitable locations, while for other categories the same new conditions will become less suited. A decrease in species diversity is projected in most of the area, with Alpine region showing the potentiality to become a refuge for species migration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sergio Noce
- Foundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) – Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES) DivisionViterboItaly
- Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro‐food and Forest systems (DIBAF)University of TusciaViterboItaly
| | - Alessio Collalti
- Foundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) – Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES) DivisionViterboItaly
- CNR‐ISAFOM – National Research Council of ItalyInstitute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the MediterraneanRendeItaly
| | - Monia Santini
- Foundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) – Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES) DivisionViterboItaly
- Far East Federal University (FEFU)VladivostokRussia
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