Fire-induced deforestation in drought-prone Mediterranean forests: drivers and unknowns from leaves to communities

Plant fire-adaptive traits mediate long-term fire recurrence impact on the potential supply capacity of ecosystem services and their resilience

Fire-induced changes in vegetation composition due to fire-regime intensification are leading to alterations in ecosystem services that might threaten their future sustainability. Fire recurrence, in particular, could be a key driver shaping ecosystem service resilience in fire-prone ecosystems. This study evaluates the impact of fire recurrence, over twenty-four years, on the potential supply capacity of ten regulating, provisioning, and cultural services selected as critical services by stakeholders and experts. We assessed fire effects in four fire-prone landscapes dominated by species with different functional-traits response to fire (i.e., obligate seeder vs resprouter species). Trends in the potential supply capacity linked to fire recurrence were estimated by applying a supervised classification of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) classes performed using Landsat imagery, associated to an ecosystem service capacity matrix adapted to the local socio-ecological context. In landscapes dominated by seeders, fire recurrence broke off the potential supply capacity of services traditionally associated to mature forest cover (i.e., the predicted probability of a decrease in the potential supply capacity of climate regulation, timber, wood fuel, mushroom production, tourism, landscape aesthetic, and cultural heritage occurred with high fire recurrence). In landscapes dominated by resprouter species, the effect of fire recurrence was partially buffered in the short-term after fire and no substantial differences in trends of change were found (i.e., equal predicted probability in the potential supply capacity of ecosystem services regardless of fire recurrence). We detected two new opportunities for ecosystems service supply associated to fire recurrence: livestock and honey production, especially in sites dominated by seeders. These findings provide valuable information aiming at recovering post-fire ecosystem service potential supply to partially counterbalance the loss in the socio-ecological system. When the main post-fire restoration goal is preserving ecosystem service resilience in fire-prone ecosystems, establishing management strategies focused on promoting resprouter species could aid mitigating the fire-driven loss of their supply capacity.

Unraveling the impact of wildfires on permafrost ecosystems: Vulnerability, implications, and management strategies

Permafrost regions play an important role in global carbon and nitrogen cycling, storing enormous amounts of organic carbon and preserving a delicate balance of nutrient dynamics. However, the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in these regions pose significant challenges to the stability of these ecosystems. This review examines the effects of fire on chemical, biological, and physical properties of permafrost regions. The physical, chemical, and pedological properties of frozen soil are impacted by fires, leading to changes in soil structure, porosity, and hydrological functioning. The combustion of organic matter during fires releases carbon and nitrogen, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient loss. Understanding the interactions between fire severity, ecosystem processes, and the implications for permafrost regions is crucial for predicting the impacts of wildfires and developing effective strategies for ecosystem protection and agricultural productivity in frozen soils. By synthesizing available knowledge and research findings, this review enhances our understanding of fire severity's implications for permafrost ecosystems and offers insights into effective fire management strategies.

Plant hydraulics at the heart of plant, crops and ecosystem functions in the face of climate change

Plant hydraulics is crucial for assessing the plants' capacity to extract and transport water from the soil up to their aerial organs. Along with their capacity to exchange water between plant compartments and regulate evaporation, hydraulic properties determine plant water relations, water status and susceptibility to pathogen attacks. Consequently, any variation in the hydraulic characteristics of plants is likely to significantly impact various mechanisms and processes related to plant growth, survival and production, as well as the risk of biotic attacks and forest fire behaviour. However, the integration of hydraulic traits into disciplines such as plant pathology, entomology, fire ecology or agriculture can be significantly improved. This review examines how plant hydraulics can provide new insights into our understanding of these processes, including modelling processes of vegetation dynamics, illuminating numerous perspectives for assessing the consequences of climate change on forest and agronomic systems, and addressing unanswered questions across multiple areas of knowledge.

Influences of wildfire on the forest ecosystem and climate change: A comprehensive study

Wildfires have complex impacts on forests, including changes in vegetation, threats to biodiversity, and emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which exacerbate climate change. The influence of wildfires on animal habitats is particularly noteworthy, as they can lead to significant changes in native environments. The extent of these alterations in species and habitats plays a crucial role in shaping forest ecology. Drought, disease, insect infestations, overgrazing, or their combined effects can amplify the negative effects on specific plant genera and entire ecosystems. In addition to the immediate consequences of plant mortality and altered community dynamics, forest fires have far-reaching implications. They often increase flowering and seed production, further influencing ecological communities. However, one concerning trend is the decline in the diversity of forest biological species within fire-affected areas. Beyond their ecological impacts, wildfires emit substantial quantities of greenhouse gases and fine particulates into the atmosphere, triggering profound changes in climate patterns and contributing to global warming. As vegetation burns during these fires, the carbon stored within is released, rendering large forest fires detrimental to biodiversity and the emission of CO2, a significant contributor to global warming. Measuring the global impact of wildfires on ecological communities and greenhouse gas emissions has become increasingly vital. These research endeavors shed light on the intricate relationships and feedback loops linking wildfires, ecosystem inhabitants, and the evolving climate landscape.

Fire Responses Shape Plant Communities in a Minimal Model for Fire Ecosystems across the World

AbstractAcross plant communities worldwide, fire regimes reflect a combination of climatic factors and plant characteristics. To shed new light on the complex relationships between plant characteristics and fire regimes, we developed a new conceptual mechanistic model that includes plant competition, stochastic fires, and fire-vegetation feedback. Considering a single standing plant functional type, we observed that highly flammable and slowly colonizing plants can persist only when they have a strong fire response, while fast colonizing and less flammable plants can display a larger range of fire responses. At the community level, the fire response of the strongest competitor determines the existence of alternative ecological states (i.e., different plant communities) under the same environmental conditions. Specifically, when the strongest competitor had a very strong fire response, such as in Mediterranean forests, only one ecological state could be achieved. Conversely, when the strongest competitor was poorly fire adapted, alternative ecological states emerged-for example, between tropical humid savannas and forests or between different types of boreal forests. These findings underline the importance of including the plant fire response when modeling fire ecosystems, for example, to predict the vegetation response to invasive species or to climate change.

Climate change, large fires, and cultural landscapes in the mediterranean basin: An analysis in southern Spain

Understanding the factors that influence fire regimes in Mediterranean climates is essential to reduce their risk. This research uses Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite resources to evaluate recent changes in land surface temperature, precipitation, and vegetation and their effects in the occurrence of large fires in the Mediterranean Basin. The results of the analysis of 335 fire events occurred in southern Spain from 2001 to 2020 show an increase in hazardous meteorological factors linked to droughts and thermal anomalies. The study also examines the potential of preserving traditional landscapes to minimize such risk. In fact, the maintenance and recovering of traditional agro-pastoral activities is an effective option to reduce flammability and increase the resilience of cultural landscapes in hazardous climatic conditions.

Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.

Drivers and implications of the extreme 2022 wildfire season in Southwest Europe

Wildfire is a common phenomenon in Mediterranean countries but the 2022 fire season has been extreme in southwest Europe (Portugal, Spain and France). Here we provide a preliminary but comprehensive analysis of 2022's wildfire season in southwest Europe. Burned area has exceeded the 2001-2021 median by a factor of 52 in some regions and large wildfires (>500 ha) started to occur in June-July, earlier than the traditional fire season. These anomalies were associated with record-breaking values of fuel dryness, atmospheric water demand and pyrometeorological conditions. Live fuel moisture content was below the historical minima for almost 50 % of the season in some regions. A few large wildfires were responsible for 82 % of the burned area and, in turn, 47 % of the area burned occurred in protected areas. Shrublands, transitional woodlands and conifer forests (but not eucalypt plantations) were the land cover types most affected by extreme fires. As climate change intensifies, we can expect such fire seasons to become the new normal in large parts of the continent, potentially leading to major negative impacts on rural economies. These results highlight the need for landscape level fuel management also in protected areas, to avoid fire-induced biodiversity losses and landscape scale degradation. Our results have important policy implications and indicate that fire prevention should be explicitly addressed within continental forest legislation and strategies.

Plant hydraulic modelling of leaf and canopy fuel moisture content reveals increasing vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest to wildfires under extreme drought

Fuel moisture content (FMC) is a crucial driver of forest fires in many regions world-wide. Yet, the dynamics of FMC in forest canopies as well as their physiological and environmental determinants remain poorly understood, especially under extreme drought. We embedded a FMC module in the trait-based, plant-hydraulic SurEau-Ecos model to provide innovative process-based predictions of leaf live fuel moisture content (LFMC) and canopy fuel moisture content (CFMC) based on leaf water potential ( ψ Leaf ). SurEau-Ecos-FMC relies on pressure-volume (p-v) curves to simulate LFMC and vulnerability curves to cavitation to simulate foliage mortality. SurEau-Ecos-FMC accurately reproduced ψ Leaf and LFMC dynamics as well as the occurrence of foliage mortality in a Mediterranean Quercus ilex forest. Several traits related to water use (leaf area index, available soil water, and transpiration regulation), vulnerability to cavitation, and p-v curves (full turgor osmotic potential) had the greatest influence on LFMC and CFMC dynamics. As the climate gets drier, our results showed that drought-induced foliage mortality is expected to increase, thereby significantly decreasing CFMC. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to understand and predict the sensitivity of forests to wildfires.

Electrical Responses of Pinus halepensis Mill. as an Indicator of Wildfire Risk in Mediterranean Forests by Complementing Live Fuel Moisture

Pinus halepensis forests, as Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are subject to high levels of wildfire risk in times of drought, with meteorological conditions of water stress and very high temperatures, mainly in summer. Considering the difficulty of knowing the phenological state of this species, the objective of this research was to evaluate the possibility of implementing the electrical responses (voltage and short-circuit current) as a variable in fire risk management models, compared to live fuel moisture. On the one hand, the obtained results demonstrate non-significant differences between the moisture content of the different fractions of the living branches (base and half of the branch and live fuel), even in times of drought with hydric stress and very high temperatures. Live fuel moisture of Pinus halepensis does not show significant seasonal variations under the influence of extreme fire risk factors. For this reason, it should be complemented with other variables for fire risk management models. On the other hand, the differences registered in the electrical signal show oscillations with significant variations, which are strongly correlated with the periods of extremely favourable meteorological conditions for wildfires. So, the voltages measured show ranges that correspond with great accuracy to the FWI. Voltage variation is dependent on the hydraulic dynamic plant behaviour and a result of the physiological response of pine trees to abiotic stress of drought. It is an easy-to-measure electrical parameter as well as a very reliable indicator with a high correlation with wildfire risk. Thus, electrical responses could add more knowledge about the phenological state of the trees in dependence on stress climatic conditions, allowing integration of these variables in the preventive wildfire modelling and management.

Highway Network and Fire Occurrence in Amazonian Indigenous Lands

The construction and expansion of highways aiming to improve the integration of the most isolated regions in Brazil facilitated the access to many inhabited areas in the Amazon biome, but had as a consequence assisted the degradation of many of these regions. Over the last two decades, we have observed in this biome a gradual diversification and intensification of land uses through vegetation loss and an increase in fire associated with deforestation and an increase in grazing areas. We used data from several active fires products derived from 14 different satellites, available on the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE). We evaluated the influence of highway infrastructure on fire occurrence inside and around Indigenous Lands (IL) located in the Brazilian Amazon biome, from 2008 to 2021. We classified 332 ILs into “cut by highways”, “without highways”, and “with highways in a 10 km buffer”. We performed: (a) the descriptive statistics of the fire occurrence by state, by season, and by type of land use and land cover (LULC) affected by fire; (b) the spatial distribution of the active fire density; and (c) a simple linear regression model between the fire occurrence and the IL area. Our results showed that in total, 16–46% of the fires occurred within the IL in most of the states, while the 10 km buffer was the region most affected by fire. We confirmed that in the last three years there was a significant increase in the number of active fires, representing anomalies in fire occurrence across the studied period. We discussed the result implications and the role of the highway network in environmental degradation inside and around the ILs located in the Brazilian Amazon.

Effects of Climate Change on Forest Regeneration in Central Spain

The Mediterranean climate has dry and hot summers, which is harsh for plants, especially seedlings. During the 1950s and 1960s, most reforestations carried out in Central Spain, a Mediterranean climate area, were successful, but in recent decades an increasing difficulty in forest regeneration has been observed, often attributed to increased summer drought. This study analyses changes in climatic parameters related to forest regeneration through statistical treatment of meteorological data series from the mid-twentieth century to the present. Simple and multiple regressions and ANOVAs were performed for five parameters, considering annual, summer and extended summer values. Rainfall reduction and prolongation of the summer drought period were not statistically significant. The change that better explains regeneration problems is the increase in temperature, especially in July and August, which was mostly significant between 2002 and 2021. Raising temperatures increase the vapor pressure deficit, exacerbating drought effects and plant mortality. Climate change scenarios point to an increase in temperatures until 2100; thus, the tipping point for natural regeneration of some species could be passed. The most affected species are those at their ecological limit. It is necessary to facilitate the adaptation of these forests to climate change, since their future will depend on the actions carried out today.

Longer summer seasons after fire induce permanent drought legacy effects on Mediterranean plant communities dominated by obligate seeders

The ecological stability of Mediterranean ecosystems is being threatened by climate change. One of the impacts that is expected to be aggravated is the effect of summer drought prolongation toward previous or subsequent seasons by becoming more frequent. This, along with wildfires, could trigger synergistic negative effects on ecosystem regeneration capacity. Here we assessed how extending summer drought in two different ways (to autumn, AutExcl treatment, or bringing it forward to the following spring, SprExcl treatment) would affect plant recovery after an experimental fire carried out in summer in a Mediterranean seeder community. By installing rainout shelters, we assessed differences in seedling emergence, survival and establishment in the main families (Cistaceae, Labiatae, Leguminosae), and the effect on species richness and community composition. We observed that these post-fire dry season extensions reduced the total number of established seedlings and species richness. The most impacting drought treatment was AutExcl. However, the regeneration response was variable depending on the studied family. SprExcl was also determinant for Labiate survival rates. These results suggest that drought events which prolong the usual summer season may have a permanent drought legacy effect on seeder communities as practically all the seeder species populations were established in the first post-fire year. This fact is relevant for Mediterranean ecosystems dominated by seeder species as severer and longer droughts are increasingly recorded and are expected to become more frequent in forthcoming decades.

Where should China practice forestry in a warming world?

As a nature-based and cost-effective solution, forestation plays a crucial role in combating global warming, biodiversity collapse, environmental degradation, and global well-being. Although China is acknowledged as a global leader of forestation and has achieved considerable overall success in environmental improvements through mega-forestation programs, many negative effects have also emerged at local scales due to the planting of maladapted tree species. To better help achieve carbon neutrality and the new vision of an ecological civilization, China has committed to further increase forestation. However, where forestation lands and such efforts should really be located is not so well understood yet and agreed upon, especially in the face of rapid climate change. Based on an ensemble-learning machine, we predicted the spatial habitats (ecological niche) of the forest, grassland, shrubland, and desert under present and future climate conditions based on the natural climax vegetation distribution across China. We show that the potential forestation lands are mainly located in eastern China, which is east of the Hu Line (also known as the Heihe-Tengchong Line). Under future climate change, forests will shift substantially in the latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevational distribution. Potential forestation lands will increase by 33.1 million hectares through the 2070s, mainly due to the conversions of shrub and grassland to forests along the Hu Line. Our prediction map also indicates that grassland rehabilitation is the universal optimal vegetation restoration strategy in areas west of the Hu Line. This analysis is consistent with much of the observed evidence of forestation failures and recent climate-change-induced forest range shifts. Our results provide an overview and further show the importance of adaptive science-based forestation planning and forest management.

Convergence in critical fuel moisture and fire weather thresholds associated with fire activity in the pyroregions of Mediterranean Europe

Wildfires are becoming an increasing threat to many communities worldwide. There has been substantial progress towards understanding the proximal causes of increased fire activity in recent years at regional and national scales. However, subcontinental scale examinations of the commonalities and differences in the drivers of fire activity across different regions are rare in the Mediterranean zone of the European Union (EUMed). Here, we first develop a new classification of EUMed pyroregions, based on grouping different ecoregions with similar seasonal patterns of burned area. We then examine the thresholds associated with fire activity in response to different drivers related to fuel moisture, surface meteorology and atmospheric stability. We document an overarching role for variation in dead fuel moisture content (FM_d), or its atmospheric proxy of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), as the major driver of fire activity. A proxy for live fuel moisture content (EVI), wind speed (WS) and the Continuous Haines Index (CH) played secondary, albeit important, roles. There were minor differences in the actual threshold values of FM_d (10-12%), EVI (0.29-0.36) and CH (4.9-5.5) associated with the onset of fire activity across pyroregions with peak fire seasons in summer and fall, despite very marked differences in mean annual burned area and fire size range. The average size of fire events increased with the number of drivers exceeding critical thresholds and reaching increasingly extreme values of a driver led to disproportionate increases in the likelihood of a fire becoming a large fire. For instance, the percentage of fires >500 ha increased from 2% to 25% as FM_d changed from the wettest to the driest quantile. Our study is among the first to jointly address the roles of fuel moisture, surface meteorology and atmospheric stability on fire activity in EUMed and provides novel insights on the interactions across fire activity triggers.

Species climatic niche explains post-fire regeneration of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) under compounded effects of fire and drought in east Spain

Fire and drought are two major agents that shape Mediterranean ecosystems, but their interacting effects on forest resilience have not been yet fully addressed. We used Pinus halepensis to investigate how compound fire-drought regimes determine the success of post-fire regeneration. We measured the density of P.halepensis newly established individuals following fire in forty-three sites along the Spanish east coast, the wetter region of the species distribution. The climatic niche of P.halepensis was characterized by considering their populations across its Spanish distribution range. We used yearly values (1979-2013 period) of accumulated precipitation, mean temperature and the warmest quarter values of these two variables to generate the climatic space or climatic niche occupied by the species. Kernel density estimates were then applied to determine the niche centroid, which would correspond to the species' climatic optimum within its Spanish distribution range. Then, we computed the pre- and post-fire climatic deviations of each sampling site as the difference between site-specific climate conditions respect to the species niche centroid, and assessed their relationship with the success of post-fire regeneration. We found highly variable patterns of post-fire regeneration density of P.halepensis over the studied sites, ranging from 7 to 42,822 tree pines ha^-1. Generalized linear models indicated a positive relationship between fire severity and the density of P.halepensis regeneration. Positive temperature deviations - warm conditions - before fire were positively related to pine regeneration. This effect increases under higher fire severity. By contrast, warm temperatures after fire showed a negative effect on the density of pine trees. Positive precipitation deviations - wet conditions - after fire enhanced pine regeneration, while precipitation before fire did not had any significant effect. Though P.halepensis is considered a species adapted to fire and drought, the interaction between these two disturbances can alter the success of its post-fire recovery patterns limiting the species' resilience in the future.

Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems

Fuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of increasing climate aridity on burned area in the Pyrenees, a mesic mountainous area where fire is currently rare. We first quantified variation in fuel moisture in six sites distributed across an altitudinal gradient where the long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation vary by 6-15 °C and 395-933 mm, respectively. We observed significant spatial variation in live (78-162%) and dead (10-15%) fuel moisture across sites. The pattern of variation was negatively linked (r = |0.6|-|0.9|) to increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and in the Aridity Index. Using seasonal fire records over 2006-2020, we observed that summer burned area in the Mediterranean forests of Northeast Spain and Southern France was strongly dependent on VPD (r = 0.93), the major driver (and predictor) of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) at our sites. Based on the difference between VPD thresholds associated with large wildfire seasons in the Mediterranean (3.6 kPa) and the maximum VPD observed in surrounding Pyrenean mountains (3.1 kPa), we quantified the "safety margin" for Pyrenean forests (difference between actual VPD and that associated with large wildfires) at 0.5 kPa. The effects of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on burned area were not significant under current conditions, a situation that may change with projected increases in climate aridity. Overall, our results indicate that DFMC in currently fire-free areas in Europe, like the Pyrenees, with vast amounts of fuel in many forest stands, may reach critical dryness thresholds beyond the safety margin and experience large wildfires after only mild increases in VPD, although LFMC can modulate the response.

Limits to post-fire vegetation recovery under climate change

Record-breaking fire seasons in many regions across the globe raise important questions about plant community responses to shifting fire regimes (i.e., changing fire frequency, severity and seasonality). Here, we examine the impacts of climate-driven shifts in fire regimes on vegetation communities, and likely responses to fire coinciding with severe drought, heatwaves and/or insect outbreaks. We present scenario-based conceptual models on how overlapping disturbance events and shifting fire regimes interact differently to limit post-fire resprouting and recruitment capacity. We demonstrate that, although many communities will remain resilient to changing fire regimes in the short-term, longer-term changes to vegetation structure, demography and species composition are likely, with a range of subsequent effects on ecosystem function. Resprouting species are likely to be most resilient to changing fire regimes. However, even these species are susceptible if exposed to repeated short-interval fire in combination with other stressors. Post-fire recruitment is highly vulnerable to increased fire frequency, particularly as climatic limitations on propagule availability intensify. Prediction of community responses to fire under climate change will be greatly improved by addressing knowledge gaps on how overlapping disturbances and climate change-induced shifts in fire regime affect post-fire resprouting, recruitment, growth rates, and species-level adaptation capacity.

Fire Recurrence and Time Since Last Fire Interact to Determine the Supply of Multiple Ecosystem Services by Mediterranean Forests

Wildfires shape the composition and functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems, but we do not know how these ecosystems respond to both the higher fire recurrence and shorter recovery times expected for future climatic scenarios. We sampled 29 plots with different fire recurrences (from 0 to 4 fires over the past decades) and time since the last fire (up to 35 years; hereafter TSLF) in Southeast Spain, to assess the effect of fire recurrence and TSLF on 25 ecosystem attributes, five related ecosystem services (biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, disturbance regulation, food production, and supporting services), plus the synergies and trade-offs between them. High fire recurrence (number of fires) and TSLF interacted to determine ecosystem services but did not affect the synergies and trade-offs between them. Fire recurrence reduced many ecosystem functions and ecosystem multifunctionality. However, this effect dampened, and even became positive, for biodiversity conservation and food production services provided enough (> 20 years) time to recover. The combined effects of fire recurrence and TSLF, however, reduced carbon sequestration and had no overall effects on supporting services. Disturbance regulation, in turn, diminished drastically with the first fire, with no effect of further fires or their interaction with TSLF. Our results show which ecosystem services will suffer more from an increase in fire recurrence, and where restoration and management efforts should focus to maximize the provision of those services more demanded by stakeholders.

Ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests will be compromised above 2℃ warming

Forests provide a wide range of provisioning, regulating and cultural services of great value to societies across the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we reviewed the scientific literature of the last 30 years to quantify the magnitude of projected changes in ecosystem services provision by Mediterranean forests under IPCC climate change scenarios. We classified the scenarios according to the temperature threshold of 2℃ set by the Paris Agreement (below or above). The review of 78 studies shows that climate change will lead to a general reduction in the provision of regulating services (e.g. carbon storage, regulation of freshwater quantity and quality) and a general increase in the number of fires, burnt areas and generally, an increase in climate-related forest hazards (median + 62% by 2100). Studies using scenarios above the 2℃ threshold projected significantly more negative changes in regulating services than studies using scenarios below this threshold. Main projected trend changes on material services (e.g. wood products), were less clear and depended on (i) whether or not the studies considered the interaction between the rise in temperatures and other drivers (e.g. forest management, CO₂ fertilization) and (ii) differences in productivity responses across the tree species evaluated. Overall, the reviewed studies projected significant reductions in range extent and habitat suitability for the most drought-sensitive forest species (e.g. -88% Fagus sylvatica), while the amount of habitat available for more drought-tolerant species will remain stable or increase; however, the magnitude of projected change for these more xeric species was limited when high-end extreme climatic scenarios were considered (above Paris Agreement). Our review highlights the benefits that climate change mitigation (to keep global mean temperature increase <2℃) can bring in terms of service provision and conservation of Mediterranean forests.

Evaluation of microwave soil moisture data for monitoring live fuel moisture content (LFMC) over the coterminous United States

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC), which is the ratio of water in the fresh biomass to the dry biomass, is a key variable that affects wildfire behaviour. Previous studies have assessed soil moisture as a predictor of LFMC over small areas with limited data, but a comprehensive evaluation at sub-continental scale is still lacking, and the explanatory utility has not been evaluated under different aridity conditions. In this study, the utility was evaluated using microwave soil moisture data from the ESA ECV_SM product from 1979 to 2018 and LFMC data from over 1000 sites in the coterminous United States. A time-lagged robust linear regression model was adopted, and the results were compared with analysis from in situ soil moisture measurements at adjacent sites. The results suggested that at most sites the LFMC correlates best with soil moisture within 60 days prior to LFMC sampling, and that the correlation is lower in areas with complex terrain. LFMC can be estimated from soil moisture with a mean RMSE of around 20%. The correlation between LFMC and soil moisture is significant (p<0.01) in most regions, and is mostly stable in different years. The major fuel types with a high response to soil moisture include pine, redcedar, sagebrush, oak, manzanita, chamise, mesquite and juniper, depending on the region. The LFMC ~ soil moisture correlation varies with the aridity condition, and soil moisture has a higher explanatory utility on LFMC under dry conditions. An analysis using SMAP Level-4 product indicated that the surface and root-zone soil moisture perform similarly in LFMC estimation. This study suggests that microwave soil moisture data contain sufficient information on LFMC, and may serve as a reference for the development of more sophisticated LFMC estimation methods.

Global Change and Forest Disturbances in the Mediterranean Basin: Breakthroughs, Knowledge Gaps, and Recommendations

Forest ecosystems in the Mediterranean Basin are mostly situated in the north of the Basin (mesic). In the most southern and dry areas, the forest can only exist where topography and/or altitude favor a sufficient availability of water to sustain forest biomass. We have conducted a thorough review of recent literature (2000–2021) that clearly indicates large direct and indirect impacts of increasing drought conditions on the forests of the Mediterranean Basin, their changes in surface and distribution areas, and the main impacts they have suffered. We have focused on the main trends that emerge from the current literature and have highlighted the main threatens and management solution for the maintenance of these forests. The results clearly indicate large direct and indirect impacts of increasing drought conditions on the forests of the Mediterranean Basin. These increasing drought conditions together with over-exploitation, pest expansion, fire and soil degradation, are synergistically driving to forest regression and dieback in several areas of this Mediterranean Basin. These environmental changes have triggered responses in tree morphology, physiology, growth, reproduction, and mortality. We identified at least seven causes of the changes in the last three decades that have led to the current situation and that can provide clues for projecting the future of these forests: (i) The direct effect of increased aridity due to more frequent and prolonged droughts, which has driven Mediterranean forest communities to the limit of their capacity to respond to drought and escape to wetter sites, (ii) the indirect effects of drought, mainly by the spread of pests and fires, (iii) the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic activity associated with general environmental degradation, including soil degradation and the impacts of fire, species invasion and pollution, (iv) human pressure and intense management of water resources, (v) agricultural land abandonment in the northern Mediterranean Basin without adequate management of new forests, (vi) very high pressure on forested areas of northern Africa coupled with the demographic enhancement, the expansion of crops and higher livestock pressure, and the more intense and overexploitation of water resources uses on the remaining forested areas, and (vii) scarcity and inequality of human management and policies, depending on the national and/or regional governments and agencies, being unable to counteract the previous changes. We identified appropriate measures of management intervention, using the most adequate techniques and processes to counteract these impacts and thus to conserve the health, service capacity, and biodiversity of Mediterranean forests. Future policies should, moreover, promote research to improve our knowledge of the mechanisms of, and the effects on, nutrient and carbon plant-soil status concurrent with the impacts of aridity and leaching due to the effects of current changes. Finally, we acknowledge the difficulty to obtain an accurate quantification of the impacts of increasing aridity rise that warrants an urgent investment in more focused research to further develop future tools in order to counteract the negative effects of climate change on Mediterranean forests.

Some Challenges for Forest Fire Risk Predictions in the 21st Century

Global wildfire activity has experienced a dramatic surge since 2017 [...]

Forest Resources Management and Sustainability: The Specific Case of European Union Countries

Forest land provides several environmental services and goods with significant implications for different socioeconomic and environmental dimensions. Forestry and its management are determinant activities for sustainable development, specifically in the current context of urgent mitigation of climate change. In this perspective, one objective of this research was to survey the main insights from the literature about the forest and management dimensions put together, highlighting the contributions of these activities to mitigate climate change. Another objective was to explore indicators related to forest management (land, employment, output, and net emissions) in order to obtain a forest sustainability index through factor analysis. As main insights from this study, we can quote that the literature survey pinpoints the most relevant factors framing forest management: soil characteristics, ecology, ecosystems, biodiversity, deforestation, climate change, socioeconomic frameworks, local knowledge, public policies, institutional context, and new technologies. Forest indicators reveal a strong relationship between forest land, employment and output, and a weaker relation with net emissions. We concluded that there is a need for stakeholders to explore and improve the interlinkage with climate change impact, specifically with regard to improving the relationships of forestry greenhouse gas emissions impacts with forest size and output.

Needle Senescence Affects Fire Behavior in Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) Stands: A Simulation Study

Research Highlights: Pre-programmed cell death in old Aleppo pine needles leads to low moisture contents in the forest canopy in July, the time when fire activity nears its peak in the Western Mediterranean Basin. Here, we show, for the first time, that such needle senescence may increase fire behavior and thus is a potential mechanism explaining why the bulk of the annual burned area in the region occurs in early summer. Background and Objectives: The brunt of the fire season in the Western Mediterranean Basin occurs at the beginning of July, when live fuel moisture content is near its maximum. Here, we test whether a potential explanation to this conundrum lies in Aleppo pine needle senescence, a result of pre-programmed cell death in 3-years-old needles, which typically occurs in the weeks preceding the peak in the burned area. Our objective was to simulate the effects of needle senescence on fire behavior. Materials and Methods: We simulated the effects of needle senescence on canopy moisture and structure. Fire behavior was simulated across different phenological scenarios and for two highly contrasting Aleppo pine stand structures, a forest, and a shrubland. Wildfire behavior simulations were done with BehavePlus6 across a wide range of wind speeds and of dead fine surface fuel moistures. Results: The transition from surface to passive crown fire occurred at lower wind speeds under simulated needle senescence in the forest and in the shrubland. Transitions to active crown fire only occurred in the shrubland under needle senescence. Maximum fire intensity and severity were always recorded in the needle senescence scenario. Conclusions: Aleppo pine needle senescence may enhance the probability of crown fire development at the onset of the fire season, and it could partly explain the concentration of fire activity in early July in the Western Mediterranean Basin.

Hydraulic and photosynthetic limitations prevail over root non-structural carbohydrate reserves as drivers of resprouting in two Mediterranean oaks

Resprouting is an ancestral trait in angiosperms that confers resilience after perturbations. As climate change increases stress, resprouting vigor is declining in many forest regions, but the underlying mechanism is poorly understood. Resprouting in woody plants is thought to be primarily limited by the availability of non-structural carbohydrate reserves (NSC), but hydraulic limitations could also be important. We conducted a multifactorial experiment with two levels of light (ambient, 2-3% of ambient) and three levels of water stress (0, 50 and 80 percent losses of hydraulic conductivity, PLC) on two Mediterranean oaks (Quercus ilex and Q. faginea) under a rain-out shelter (n = 360). The proportion of resprouting individuals after canopy clipping declined markedly as PLC increased for both species. NSC concentrations affected the response of Q. ilex, the species with higher leaf construction costs, and its effect depended on the PLC. The growth of resprouting individuals was largely dependent on photosynthetic rates for both species, while stored NSC availability and hydraulic limitations played minor and non-significant roles, respectively. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our results indicate that resprouting in oaks may be primarily driven by complex interactions between hydraulics and carbon sources, whereas stored NSC play a significant but secondary role.

Linking Forest Flammability and Plant Vulnerability to Drought

Globally, fire regimes are being altered by changing climatic conditions. New fire regimes have the potential to drive species extinctions and cause ecosystem state changes, with a range of consequences for ecosystem services. Despite the co-occurrence of forest fires with drought, current approaches to modelling flammability largely overlook the large body of research into plant vulnerability to drought. Here, we outline the mechanisms through which plant responses to drought may affect forest flammability, specifically fuel moisture and the ratio of dead to live fuels. We present a framework for modelling live fuel moisture content (moisture content of foliage and twigs) from soil water content and plant traits, including rooting patterns and leaf traits such as the turgor loss point, osmotic potential, elasticity and leaf mass per area. We also present evidence that physiological drought stress may contribute to previously observed fuel moisture thresholds in south-eastern Australia. Of particular relevance is leaf cavitation and subsequent shedding, which transforms live fuels into dead fuels, which are drier, and thus easier to ignite. We suggest that capitalising on drought research to inform wildfire research presents a major opportunity to develop new insights into wildfires, and new predictive models of seasonal fuel dynamics.

Reviewing the Use of Resilience Concepts in Forest Sciences

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Resilience is a key concept to deal with an uncertain future in forestry. In recent years, it has received increasing attention from both research and practice. However, a common understanding of what resilience means in a forestry context and how to operationalise it is lacking. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the recent forest science literature on resilience in the forestry context, synthesizing how resilience is defined and assessed.

RECENT FINDINGS

Based on a detailed review of 255 studies, we analysed how the concepts of engineering resilience, ecological resilience and social-ecological resilience are used in forest sciences. A clear majority of the studies applied the concept of engineering resilience, quantifying resilience as the recovery time after a disturbance. The two most used indicators for engineering resilience were basal area increment and vegetation cover, whereas ecological resilience studies frequently focus on vegetation cover and tree density. In contrast, important social-ecological resilience indicators used in the literature are socioeconomic diversity and stock of natural resources. In the context of global change, we expected an increase in studies adopting the more holistic social-ecological resilience concept, but this was not the observed trend.

SUMMARY

Our analysis points to the nestedness of these three resilience concepts, suggesting that they are complementary rather than contradictory. It also means that the variety of resilience approaches does not need to be an obstacle for operationalisation of the concept. We provide guidance for choosing the most suitable resilience concept and indicators based on the management, disturbance and application context.

Increased aridity drives post-fire recovery of Mediterranean forests towards open shrublands

Recent observations suggest that repeated fires could drive Mediterranean forests to shrublands, hosting flammable vegetation that regrows quickly after fire. This feedback supposedly favours shrubland persistence and may be strengthened in the future by predicted increased aridity. An assessment was made of how fires and aridity in combination modulated the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems and whether the feedback could be strong enough to maintain shrubland as an alternative stable state to forest. A model was developed for vegetation dynamics, including stochastic fires and different plant fire-responses. Parameters were calibrated using observational data from a period up to 100 yr ago, from 77 sites with and without fires in Southeast Spain and Southern France. The forest state was resilient to the separate impact of fires and increased aridity. However, water stress could convert forests into open shrublands by hampering post-fire recovery, with a possible tipping point at intermediate aridity. Projected increases in aridity may reduce the resilience of Mediterranean forests against fires and drive post-fire ecosystem dynamics toward open shrubland. The main effect of increased aridity is the limitation of post-fire recovery. Including plant fire-responses is thus fundamental when modelling the fate of Mediterranean-type vegetation under climate-change scenarios.

Synergistic abiotic and biotic stressors explain widespread decline of Pinus pinaster in a mixed forest

Global change potentially increases forest vulnerability. Different abiotic and biotic factors may interact to cause forest decline and accelerated tree mortality. We studied a mixed Mediterranean continental forest where Pinus pinaster Ait. (maritime pine) shows widespread decline to analyse the role of different abiotic and biotic factors on health status and growth dynamics both at the individual and plot levels. We also analysed stand composition and regeneration of tree species to check whether there is a change in species dominance. Fungal pathogens were seldom present and we detected no pervasive fungi or insect infestation and no presence of pathogens like Heterobasidion or Phytophthora. Infection of hemiparasite plants like Viscum album L. (mistletoe) can reduce leaf area and its abundance is generally considered an expression of host decline. Yet, the existence among declining trees of high defoliation levels without mistletoe, but not vice versa, suggests that defoliation in response to some abiotic stressor could be a predisposing factor preceding mistletoe infection. Compared to healthy trees, declining and dead trees exhibited higher defoliation rates, smaller needles and lower recent growth with steeper negative trends. Dead and declining trees showed similar negative growth trends since the early 1990s droughts, which we interpreted as early warning signals anticipating mortality of currently declining trees in the near future. Mortality of maritime pine extending across all size classes, the lower presence of this species in the smallest size classes and its lack of regeneration suggest it is potentially losing its current dominance and being replaced by other co-occurring, more drought-tolerant species. Our results unravelled that maritime pine decline seems to be mainly driven by a combination of predisposing and inciting abiotic factors (microenvironment and drought stress) and biotic factors (mistletoe). The absence of widespread fungal pathogens suggests that they may have a minor role on pine decline acting only eventually as contributing factors. Although there could be other interrelations among factors or other biotic agents at play, our results strongly suggest that water stress plays a major role in the decline process of the dominant species on an ecosystem with strong land-use legacies.

Dissecting Adaptation Mechanisms to Contrasting Solar Irradiance in the Mediterranean Shrub Cistus incanus

Molecular mechanisms that are the base of the strategies adopted by Mediterranean plants to cope with the challenges imposed by limited or excessive solar radiation during the summer season have received limited attention. In our study, conducted on C. incanus plants growing in the shade or in full sunlight, we performed measurements of relevant physiological traits, such as leaf water potential, gas exchange and PSII photochemistry, RNA-Seq with de-novo assembly, and the analysis of differentially expressed genes. We also identified and quantified photosynthetic pigments, abscisic acid, and flavonoids. Here, we show major mechanisms regulating light perception and signaling which, in turn, sustain the shade avoidance syndrome displayed by the 'sun loving' C. incanus. We offer clear evidence of the detrimental effects of excessive light on both the assembly and the stability of PSII, and the activation of a suite of both repair and effective antioxidant mechanisms in sun-adapted leaves. For instance, our study supports the view of major antioxidant functions of zeaxanthin in sunny plants concomitantly challenged by severe drought stress. Finally, our study confirms the multiple functions served by flavonoids, both flavonols and flavanols, in the adaptive mechanisms of plants to the environmental pressures associated to Mediterranean climate.

Risks to carbon dynamics in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia under current and future climates

Extreme disturbance events, such as wildfire and drought, have large impacts on carbon storage and sequestration of forests and woodlands globally. Here, we present a modelling approach that assesses the relative impact of disturbances on carbon storage and sequestration, and how this will alter under climate change. Our case study is semi-arid Australia where large areas of land are managed to offset over 122 million tonnes of anthropogenic carbon emissions over a 100-year period. These carbon offsets include mature vegetation that has been protected from clearing and regenerating vegetation on degraded agricultural land. We use a Bayesian Network model to combine multiple probabilistic models of the risk posed by fire, drought, grazing and recruitment failure to carbon dynamics. The model is parameterised from a review of relevant literature and additional quantitative analyses presented here. We found that the risk of vegetation becoming a net source of carbon due to a mortality event, or failing to realise maximum sequestration potential, through recruitment failure in regenerating vegetation, was primarily a function of rainfall in this semi-arid environment. However, the relative size of an emissions event varied across vegetation communities depending on plant attributes, specifically resprouting capacity. Modelled climate change effects were variable, depending on the climate change projection used. Under 'best-case' or 'most-likely' climate scenarios for 2050, similar or increased projections of mean annual precipitation, associated with a build-up of fuel, were expected to drive an increase in fire activity (a 40-160% increase), but a decrease in drought (a 20-35% decrease). Under a 'worst-case' climate scenario, fire activity was expected to decline (a 37% decrease), but drought conditions remain similar (a 5% decrease). These projected changes to the frequency of drought and fire increase the risk that vegetation used for carbon offsetting will fail to provide anticipated amounts of carbon abatement over their lifetime.

Short-interval wildfires increase likelihood of resprouting failure in fire-tolerant trees

Epicormic and basal resprouting promote tree survival and persistence in fire-prone regions worldwide. However, little is known about limits to resprouting effectiveness when severe wildfires increase in frequency. In the extensive fire-tolerant mixed-eucalypt forests of temperate Australia, we examined the effects of one and two high-severity wildfires within six years on relationships between tree size (stem diameter) and resprouting (epicormic and/or basal), and on seedling regeneration. The diameter of eucalypts likely to be topkilled (no epicormic recovery) by high-severity fire increased from ∼15 cm after the first wildfire to ∼22 cm after the second. Middle-sized stems (22-36 cm diameter) were likely to resprout both epicormically and basally after one wildfire, but short-interval wildfires eroded this dual capacity, thereby reducing the probability of survival. Seedling abundance also decreased after two successive fires. Our study indicates that short-interval wildfires increased tree 'escape size', and eroded resprouting success particularly of middle-sized trees, which were too large for basal resprouting but too small for epicormic recovery. This, in combination with reduced seedling recruitment, portends structural and demographic challenges for even the most fire-tolerant forests under emerging fire regimes.

Redirecting fire-prone Mediterranean ecosystems toward more resilient and less flammable communities

The extensive abandonment of agricultural lands in the Mediterranean basin has led to large landscapes being dominated by early-successional species, characterized by high flammability and an increasing fire risk. This fact promotes fire occurrence and places ecosystems in a state of arrested succession. In this work, we assessed the effectiveness of several restoration actions in redirecting these ecosystems toward more resilient communities dominated by resprouting species. These actions included the mechanical clearing of early-successional species, the plantation of resprouting species, and the combination of both treatments. For 13 years, we assessed shifts in the successional trajectory and ecosystem flammability by changes in: species composition, species richness, ecosystem evenness, the natural colonization of resprouting species, total biomass and proportion of dead biomass. We observed that the plantation and clearing combination was a suitable strategy to promote resilience. Species richness increased as well as the presence of the resprouting species introduced by planting. The natural colonization of the resprouting species was also enhanced. These changes in the successional trajectory were accompanied by a possible reduction of fire risk by reducing dead fuel proportion. These findings are relevant for the management of Mediterranean basin areas, but also suggest new tools for redirecting systems in fire-prone areas worldwide.