Variation in stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope compositions along antlers of Qamanirjuaq caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus)

Annual antler growth begins in the spring and is completed by late summer for male caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) from the Qamanirjuaq herd (Nunavut, Canada), aligned with both the spring migration and a seasonal dietary shift. Antlers may provide a non-lethal means of studying short- and long-term changes in caribou ecology through incorporated isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N). We sampled the antlers of 12 male caribou from the Qamanirjuaq herd culled in September 1967. We predicted that serial sampling of antlers would reflect the known seasonal dietary change from lichen to grass-like and shrub diet based on rumen contents from individuals culled during the same period. The δ13C and δ15N were analyzed in food sources and every 3 cm along each antler's length. The carbon isotope compositions of collagen (δ13Ccol) varied by ~0.5‰ among individuals and within antlers, while the carbon isotope compositions of antler bioapatite (δ13CCO3) increased by 1-1.5‰ from pedicle to tip. Values of δ15Ncol increased within antlers by 1-3‰ from pedicle to tip and varied by 3‰ among the individuals sampled. Antler collagen was lower in δ15Ncol by ~1‰ relative to bone collagen. Bayesian mixing models were conducted to test for changes in dietary proportions from antler isotope compositions. Mixing models did not indicate significant dietary shifts for any individual during antler formation, showing consistently mixed diets of fungi, horsetail, lichen, and woody plants. Increases in δ15Ncol in antler tissue could, therefore, correspond to subtle seasonal dietary changes and/or the physiological stress of antler tissue development.

Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the range of boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat-mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a reconsideration of past ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.

Critical fire weather conditions during active fire spread days in Canada

A spread day is defined as a day in which fires grow a substantial amount of area; such days usually occur during high or extreme fire weather conditions. The identification and prediction of a spread day based on fire weather conditions could help both our understanding of fire regimes as well as forecasting and managing fires operationally. This study explores the relationships between fire weather and spread days in the forested areas of Canada by spatially and temporally matching a daily fire growth database to a daily gridded fire weather database that spans from 2001 to 2019. By examining the correlations between spread day fire weather conditions and location, conifer coverage (%), and elevation, we found that a spread day happens under less severe fire weather conditions as latitude increases for the entire study area and as conifer coverage increases within non-mountainous study areas. In the western mountain areas, however, with increasing conifer coverage more severe fire weather conditions are required for a spread day to occur. Using two modeling approaches, we were able to identify spread day indicators (generalized additive model) and to predict the occurrence of spread days (semi-binomial regression model) by Canadian Ecozones both annually and seasonally. Overall, Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI), and Fire Weather Index (FWI) performed the best in all models built for spread day identification and prediction but varied depending on the conditions mentioned above. FFMC was the most consistent across all spatial and temporal scales.

Lowering the rate of timber harvesting to mitigate impacts of climate change on boreal caribou habitat quality in eastern Canada

Many boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) have declined in Canada, a trend essentially driven by the increasing footprint of anthropogenic disturbances and the resulting habitat-mediated apparent competition that increases predation pressure. However, the influence of climate change on these ecological processes remains poorly understood. We evaluated how climate change will affect boreal caribou habitat over the 2030-2100 horizon and in a 9.94 Mha study area, using a climate-sensitive simulation ensemble that integrates climate-induced changes in stand dynamics, fire regime, and different levels of commercial timber harvesting. We assessed the relative importance of these three drivers under projections made using different radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Habitat quality was estimated from resource selection functions built with telemetry data collected from 121 caribou between 2004 and 2011 in 7 local populations. At the beginning of our simulations, caribou habitat was already structured along a south-to-north increasing quality gradient. Simulations revealed changes in forest cover that are driven by climate-induced variations in fire regime and scenarios of harvesting levels, resulting in the loss of older coniferous forests and an increase in deciduous stands. These changes induced a generalized decrease in the average habitat quality and in the percentage of high-quality habitat for caribou, and in a northward recession of suitable habitat. Timber harvesting was the most important agent of change for the 2030-2050 horizon, although it was slowly replaced by changes in fire regime until 2100. Our results clearly showed that it is possible to maintain the current average habitat quality for caribou in future scenarios that consider a reduction in harvested volumes, the only lever under our control. This suggests that we still have the capacity to conciliate socioeconomic development and caribou conservation imperatives in the face of climate change, an important issue debated throughout the species distribution range.

Short- and long-term wildfire threat when adapting infrastructure for wildlife conservation in the boreal forest

Managers designing infrastructure in fire-prone wildland areas require assessments of wildfire threat to quantify uncertainty due to future vegetation and climatic conditions. In this study, we combine wildfire simulation and forest landscape composition modeling to identify areas that would be highly susceptible to wildfire around a proposed conservation corridor in Québec, Canada. In this measure, managers have proposed raising the conductors of a new 735-kV hydroelectric powerline above the forest canopy within a wildlife connectivity corridor to mitigate the impacts to threatened boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus). Retention of coniferous vegetation, however, can increase the likelihood of an intense wildfire damaging powerline infrastructure. To assess the likelihood of high-intensity wildfires for the next 100 years, we evaluated three time periods (2020, 2070, 2120), three climate scenarios (observed, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), and four vegetation projections (static, no harvest, extensive harvesting, harvesting excluded in protected areas). Under present-day conditions, we found a lower probability of high-intensity wildfire within the corridor than in other parts of the study area, due to the protective influence of a nearby, poorly regenerated burned area. Wildfire probability will increase into the future, with strong, weather-induced inflation in the number of annual ignitions and wildfire spread potential. However, a conversion to less-flammable vegetation triggered by interactions between climate change and disturbance may attenuate this trend. By addressing the range of uncertainty of future conditions, we present a robust strategy to assist in decision-making about long-term risk management for both the proposed conservation measure and the powerline.

Future wildfire extent and frequency determined by the longest fire-conducive weather spell

Great efforts have been made to understand the impacts of a changing climate on fire activity; however, a reliable approach with high prediction confidence has yet to be found. By establishing linkages between the longest duration of fire-conducive weather spell and fire activity parameters, this study projected annual area burned (AAB), annual number of fires (ANF), and annual maximum fire size (MFS) into the future. We found that even though the rates of change differ, the spatial pattern of changes for all three parameters are similar by Canadian ecozone. Areas with the lowest fire activity may see higher rates of change in comparison to high fire activity areas. By end of the century, the changes of AAB and MFS for the study area are projected to be about four and five times that of the baseline respectively, while ANF could almost double.

Increasing fire frequency and severity will increase habitat loss for a boreal forest indicator species

Climate change will lead to more frequent and more severe fires in some areas of boreal forests, affecting the distribution and availability of late-successional forest communities. These forest communities help to protect globally significant carbon reserves beneath permafrost layers and provide habitat for many animal species, including forest-dwelling caribou. Many caribou populations are declining, yet the mechanisms by which changing fire regimes could affect caribou declines are poorly understood. We analyzed resource selection of 686 GPS-collared female caribou from three ecotypes and 15 populations in a ~600,000 km² region of northwest Canada and eastern Alaska. These populations span a wide gradient of fire frequency but experience low levels of human-caused habitat disturbance. We used a mixed-effects modeling framework to characterize caribou resource selection in response to burns at different seasons and spatiotemporal scales, and to test for functional responses in resource selection to burn availability. We also tested mechanisms driving observed selection patterns using burn severity and lichen cover data. Caribou avoided burns more strongly during winter relative to summer and at larger spatiotemporal scales relative to smaller scales. During the winter, caribou consistently avoided burns at both spatiotemporal scales as burn availability increased, indicating little evidence of a functional response. However, they decreased their avoidance of burns during summer as burn availability increased. Burn availability explained more variation in caribou selection for burns than ecotype. Within burns, caribou strongly avoided severely burned areas in winter, and this avoidance lasted nearly 30 years after a fire. Caribou within burns also selected higher cover of terrestrial lichen (an important caribou food source). We found a negative relationship between burn severity and lichen cover, confirming that caribou avoidance of burns was consistent with lower lichen abundance. Consistent winter avoidance of burns and severely burned areas suggests that caribou will experience increasing winter habitat loss as fire frequency and severity increase. Our results highlight the potential for climate-induced alteration of natural disturbance regimes to affect boreal biodiversity through habitat loss. We suggest that management strategies prioritizing protection of core winter range habitat with lower burn probabilities would provide important climate-change refugia for caribou.

A synthetic review of terrestrial biological research from the Alberta oil sands region: 10 years of published literature

In the past decade, a large volume of peer-reviewed papers has examined the potential impacts of oil and gas resource extraction in the Canadian oil sands (OS). A large proportion focuses on terrestrial biology: wildlife, birds, and vegetation. We provide a qualitative synthesis of the condition of the environment in the oil sands region (OSR) from 2009 to 2020 to identify gaps and progress cumulative effects assessments. Our objectives were to (1) qualitatively synthesize and critically review knowledge from the OSR; (2) identify consistent trends and generalizable conclusions; and (3) pinpoint gaps in need of greater monitoring or research effort. We visualize knowledge and terrestrial monitoring foci by allocating papers to a conceptual model for the OS. Despite a recent increase in publications, focus has remained concentrated on a few key stressors, especially landscape disturbance, and a few taxa of interest. Stressor and response monitoring is well represented, but direct monitoring of pathways (linkages between stressors and responses) is limited. Important knowledge gaps include understanding effects at multiple spatial scales, mammal health effects monitoring, focused monitoring of local resources important to Indigenous communities, and geospatial coverage and availability, including higher attribute resolution in human footprint, comprehensive land cover mapping, and up-to-date LiDAR coverage. Causal attribution based on spatial proximity to operations or spatial orientation of monitoring in the region is common but may be limited in the strength of inference that it provides. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:388-406. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Causal Bayesian networks in assessments of wildfire risks: Opportunities for ecological risk assessment and management

Wildfire risks and losses have increased over the last 100 years, associated with population expansion, land use and management practices, and global climate change. While there have been extensive efforts at modeling the probability and severity of wildfires, there have been fewer efforts to examine causal linkages from wildfires to impacts on ecological receptors and critical habitats. Bayesian networks are probabilistic tools for graphing and evaluating causal knowledge and uncertainties in complex systems that have seen only limited application to the quantitative assessment of ecological risks and impacts of wildfires. Here, we explore opportunities for using Bayesian networks for assessing wildfire impacts to ecological systems through levels of causal representation and scenario examination. Ultimately, Bayesian networks may facilitate understanding the factors contributing to ecological impacts, and the prediction and assessment of wildfire risks to ecosystems. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:1168-1178. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.

“We’re Made Criminals Just to Eat off the Land”: Colonial Wildlife Management and Repercussions on Inuit Well-Being

Across Inuit Nunangat, Inuit rely on wildlife for food security, cultural continuity, intergenerational learning, and livelihoods. Caribou has been an essential species for Inuit for millennia, providing food, clothing, significant cultural practices, and knowledge-sharing. Current declines in many caribou populations—often coupled with hunting moratoriums—have significant impacts on Inuit food, culture, livelihoods, and well-being. Following an Inuit-led approach, this study characterized Inuit-caribou relationships; explored Inuit perspectives on how caribou have been managed; and identified opportunities for sustaining the Mealy Mountain Caribou. Qualitative data were collected in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada through 21 in-depth interviews and two community open houses. Data were analyzed using constant comparative methods and thematic analysis. Rigolet Inuit described: how conservation management decisions had disrupted important connections among caribou and Inuit, particularly related to food, culture, and well-being; the socio-cultural and emotional impacts of the criminalization of an important cultural practice, as well as perceived inequities in wildlife conservation enforcement; and the frustration, anger, and hurt with not being heard or included in caribou management decisions. These results provide insights into experiences of historic and ongoing colonial wildlife management decisions, and highlight future directions for management initiatives for the health and well-being of Inuit and caribou.

Remote Sensing of Boreal Wetlands 2: Methods for Evaluating Boreal Wetland Ecosystem State and Drivers of Change

The following review is the second part of a two part series on the use of remotely sensed data for quantifying wetland extent and inferring or measuring condition for monitoring drivers of change on wetland environments. In the first part, we introduce policy makers and non-users of remotely sensed data with an effective feasibility guide on how data can be used. In the current review, we explore the more technical aspects of remotely sensed data processing and analysis using case studies within the literature. Here we describe: (a) current technologies used for wetland assessment and monitoring; (b) the latest algorithmic developments for wetland assessment; (c) new technologies; and (d) a framework for wetland sampling in support of remotely sensed data collection. Results illustrate that high or fine spatial resolution pixels (≤10 m) are critical for identifying wetland boundaries and extent, and wetland class, form and type, but are not required for all wetland sizes. Average accuracies can be up to 11% better (on average) than medium resolution (11–30 m) data pixels when compared with field validation. Wetland size is also a critical factor such that large wetlands may be almost as accurately classified using medium-resolution data (average = 76% accuracy, stdev = 21%). Decision-tree and machine learning algorithms provide the most accurate wetland classification methods currently available, however, these also require sampling of all permutations of variability. Hydroperiod accuracy, which is dependent on instantaneous water extent for single time period datasets does not vary greatly with pixel resolution when compared with field data (average = 87%, 86%) for high and medium resolution pixels, respectively. The results of this review provide users with a guideline for optimal use of remotely sensed data and suggested field methods for boreal and global wetland studies.

Examining management scenarios to mitigate wildfire hazard to caribou conservation projects using burn probability modeling

The boreal forests of Alberta have extensive networks of legacy seismic exploration lines that have been linked to the decline of boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations throughout the region. In order to improve habitat quality for caribou, energy companies are investing significant resources in the restoration of many of these seismic lines in key areas, however, frequent large and intense wildfires may compromise the effectiveness of these conservation measures. To minimize the wildfire risk, managers need to know the likelihood of wildfire and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. We undertook a wildfire risk assessment across the Cold Lake caribou range where we used the Burn-P3 model to determine: a) burn probability; b) wildfire risk to restored seismic line areas; and c) the effectiveness of mitigation measures. The burn probability of the landscape was highly heterogeneous, and recent large burns and some waterbodies provided "shields" that reduced burn probability on their leeward sides. We designed mitigation scenarios to mimic the shielding effect of waterbodies and large recent burns by modeling the effects of increase suppression activity and fuel conversion within intensive management zones upwind of the resources to be protected. We found that these intensive management zones reduced the burn probability and wildfire hazard in the restored habitat areas but the effect declined rapidly as distance from the treatment zones increased. If land managers want to minimize the risk of losing their investments in caribou conservation to wildfire, it would be preferable to have mitigation measures spatially targeted closer to the conservation areas. Furthermore, it would be advisable to have redundancy in any conservation measures and wildfire-risk mitigations to ensure that losses due to wildfire on one area do not jeopardize all conservation projects within the landscape.