Climate drives phenological reassembly of a mountain wildflower meadow community

Climate change increases flowering duration, driving phenological reassembly and elevated co-flowering richness

Changes to flowering phenology are a key response of plants to climate change. However, we know little about how these changes alter temporal patterns of reproductive overlap (i.e. phenological reassembly). We combined long-term field (1937-2012) and herbarium records (1850-2017) of 68 species in a flowering plant community in central North America and used a novel application of Bayesian quantile regression to estimate changes to flowering season length, altered richness and composition of co-flowering assemblages, and whether phenological shifts exhibit seasonal trends. Across the past century, phenological shifts increased species' flowering durations by 11.5 d on average, which resulted in 94% of species experiencing greater flowering overlap at the community level. Increases to co-flowering were particularly pronounced in autumn, driven by a greater tendency of late season species to shift the ending of flowering later and to increase flowering duration. Our results demonstrate that species-level phenological shifts can result in considerable phenological reassembly and highlight changes to flowering duration as a prominent, yet underappreciated, effect of climate change. The emergence of an autumn co-flowering mode emphasizes that these effects may be season-dependent.

Time is of the essence: A general framework for uncovering temporal structures of communities

Ecological communities are inherently dynamic: species constantly turn over within years, months, weeks or even days. These temporal shifts in community composition determine essential aspects of species interactions and how energy, nutrients, information, diseases and perturbations 'flow' through systems. Yet, our understanding of community structure has relied heavily on static analyses not designed to capture critical features of this dynamic temporal dimension of communities. Here, we propose a conceptual and methodological framework for quantifying and analysing this temporal dimension. Conceptually, we split the temporal structure into two definitive features, sequence and duration, and review how they are linked to key concepts in ecology. We then outline how we can capture these definitive features using perspectives and tools from temporal graph theory. We demonstrate how we can easily integrate ongoing research on phenology into this framework and highlight what new opportunities arise from this approach to answer fundamental questions in community ecology. As climate change reshuffles ecological communities worldwide, quantifying the temporal organization of communities is imperative to resolve the fundamental processes that shape natural ecosystems and predict how these systems may change in the future.

Time-dependent interaction modification generated from plant-soil feedback

Pairwise interactions between species can be modified by other community members, leading to emergent dynamics contingent on community composition. Despite the prevalence of such higher-order interactions, little is known about how they are linked to the timing and order of species' arrival. We generate population dynamics from a mechanistic plant-soil feedback model, then apply a general theoretical framework to show that the modification of a pairwise interaction by a third plant depends on its germination phenology. These time-dependent interaction modifications emerge from concurrent changes in plant and microbe populations and are strengthened by higher overlap between plants' associated microbiomes. The interaction between this overlap and the specificity of microbiomes further determines plant coexistence. Our framework is widely applicable to mechanisms in other systems from which similar time-dependent interaction modifications can emerge, highlighting the need to integrate temporal shifts of species interactions to predict the emergent dynamics of natural communities.

Later-melting rather than thickening of snowpack enhance the productivity and alter the community composition of temperate grassland

Snowpack is closely related to vegetation green-up in water-limited ecosystems, and has effects on growing-season ecosystem processes. However, we know little about how changes in snowpack depth and melting timing affect primary productivity and plant community structure during the growing season. Here, we conducted a four-year snow manipulation experiment exploring how snow addition, snowmelt delay and their combination affect aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), species diversity, community composition and plant reproductive phenology in seasonally snow-covered temperate grassland in northern China. Snow addition alone increased soil moisture and nutrient availability during early spring, while did not change plant community structure and ANPP. Instead, snowmelt delay alone postponed plant reproductive phenology, and increased ANPP, decreased species diversity and altered species composition. Grasses are more sensitive to changes in snowmelt timing than forbs, and early-flowering forbs showed a higher sensitivity compared to late-flowering forbs. The effect of snowmelt delay on ANPP and species diversity was offset by snow addition, probably because the added snow unnecessarily lengthens the snow-covering duration. The disparate effects of changes in snowpack depth and snowmelt timing necessitate their discrimination for more mechanistic understanding on the effects of snowpack changes on ecosystems. Our study suggests that it is essential to incorporate non-growing-season climate change events (in particular, snowfall and snowpack changes) to comprehensively disclose the effects of climate change on community structure and ecosystem functions.

Bridging theory and experiments of priority effects

Priority effects play a key role in structuring natural communities, but considerable confusion remains about how they affect different ecological systems. Synthesizing previous studies, we show that this confusion arises because the mechanisms driving priority and the temporal scale at which they operate differ among studies, leading to divergent outcomes in species interactions and biodiversity patterns. We suggest grouping priority effects into two functional categories based on their mechanisms: frequency-dependent priority effects that arise from positive frequency dependence, and trait-dependent priority effects that arise from time-dependent changes in interacting traits. Through easy quantification of these categories from experiments, we can construct community models representing diverse biological mechanisms and interactions with priority effects, therefore better predicting their consequences across ecosystems.

Priority Effects Determine How Dispersal Affects Biodiversity in Seasonal Metacommunities

AbstractThe arrival order of species frequently determines the outcome of their interactions. This phenomenon, called the priority effect, is ubiquitous in nature and determines local community structure, but we know surprisingly little about how it influences biodiversity across different spatial scales. Here, we use a seasonal metacommunity model to show that biodiversity patterns and the homogenizing effect of high dispersal depend on the specific mechanisms underlying priority effects. When priority effects are driven only by positive frequency dependence, dispersal-diversity relationships are sensitive to initial conditions but generally show a hump-shaped relationship: biodiversity declines when dispersal rates become high and allow the dominant competitor to exclude other species across patches. When spatiotemporal variation in phenological differences alters species' interaction strengths (trait-dependent priority effects), local, regional, and temporal diversity are surprisingly insensitive to variation in dispersal, regardless of the initial numeric advantage. Thus, trait-dependent priority effects can strongly reduce the effect of dispersal on biodiversity, preventing the homogenization of metacommunities. Our results suggest an alternative mechanism that maintains local and regional diversity without environmental heterogeneity, highlighting that accounting for the mechanisms underlying priority effects is fundamental to understanding patterns of biodiversity.

Phenology and foraging bias contribute to sex-specific foraging patterns in the rare declining butterfly Argynnis idalia idalia

Variation in pollinator foraging behavior can influence pollination effectiveness, community diversity, and plant-pollinator network structure. Although effects of interspecific variation have been widely documented, studies of intraspecific variation in pollinator foraging are relatively rare. Sex-specific differences in resource use are a strong potential source of intraspecific variation, especially in species where the phenology of males and females differ. Differences may arise from encountering different flowering communities, sex-specific traits, nutritional requirements, or a combination of these factors. We evaluated sex-specific foraging patterns in the eastern regal fritillary butterfly (Argynnis idalia idalia), leveraging a 21-year floral visitation dataset. Because A. i. idalia is protandrous, we determined whether foraging differences were due to divergent phenology by comparing visitation patterns between the entire season with restricted periods of male-female overlap. We quantified nectar carbohydrate and amino acid contents of the most visited plant species and compared those visited more frequently by males versus females. We demonstrate significant differences in visitation patterns between male and female A. i. idalia over two decades. Females visit a greater diversity of species, while dissimilarity in foraging patterns between sexes is persistent and comparable to differences between species. While differences are diminished or absent in some years during periods of male-female overlap, remaining signatures of foraging dissimilarity during implicate mechanisms other than phenology. Nectar of plants visited more by females had greater concentrations of total carbohydrates, glucose, and fructose and individual amino acids than male-associated plants. Further work can test whether nutritional differences are a cause of visitation patterns or consequence, reflecting seasonal shifts in the nutritional landscape encountered by male and female A. i. idalia. We highlight the importance of considering sex-specific foraging patterns when studying interaction networks, and in making conservation management decisions for this at-risk butterfly and other species exhibiting strong intraspecific variation.

Animal-mediated plant niche tracking in a changing climate

Over half of plant species are animal-dispersed, and our understanding of how animals can help plants move in response to climate change - a process known as niche tracking - is limited, but advancing rapidly. Recent research efforts find evidence that animals are helping plants track their niches. They also identify key conditions needed for animal-mediated niche tracking to occur, including alignment of the timing of seed availability, the directionality of animal movements, and microhabitat conditions where seeds are deposited. A research framework that measures niche tracking effectiveness by considering all parts of the niche-tracking process, and links together data and models from multiple disciplines, will lead to further insight and inform actions to help ecosystems adapt to a changing world.

Seasonal structure of interactions enhances multidimensional stability of mutualistic networks

Community ecologists have made great advances in understanding how natural communities can be both diverse and stable by studying communities as interaction networks. However, focus has been on interaction networks aggregated over time, neglecting the consequences of the seasonal organization of interactions (hereafter 'seasonal structure') for community stability. Here, we extended previous theoretical findings on the topic in two ways: (i) by integrating empirical seasonal structure of 11 plant–hummingbird communities into dynamic models, and (ii) by tackling multiple facets of network stability together. We show that, in a competition context, seasonal structure enhances community stability by allowing diverse and resilient communities while preserving their robustness to species extinctions. The positive effects of empirical seasonal structure on network stability vanished when using randomized seasonal structures, suggesting that eco-evolutionary dynamics produce stabilizing seasonal structures. We also show that the effects of seasonal structure on community stability are mainly mediated by changes in network structure and productivity, suggesting that the seasonal structure of a community is an important and yet neglected aspect in the diversity–stability and diversity–productivity debates.

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

Phenological displacement is uncommon among sympatric angiosperms

Interactions between species can influence successful reproduction, resulting in reproductive character displacement, where the similarity of reproductive traits - such as flowering time - among close relatives growing together differ from when growing apart. Evidence for the overall prevalence and direction of this phenomenon, and its stability under environmental change, remains untested across large scales. Using the power of crowdsourcing, we gathered phenological information from over 40 000 herbarium specimens, and investigated displacement in flowering time across 110 animal-pollinated species in the eastern USA. Overall, flowering time displacement is not common across large scales. However, displacement is generally greater among species pairs that flower close in time, regardless of direction. Furthermore, with climate change, the flowering times of closely related species are predicted, on average, to shift further apart by the mid-21^st century. We demonstrate that the degree and direction of phenological displacement among co-occurring closely related species pairs varies tremendously. However, future climate change may alter the differences in reproductive timing among many of these species pairs, which may have significant consequences for species interactions and gene flow. Our study provides one promising path towards understanding how the phenological landscape is structured and may respond to future environmental change.

Can flowers affect land surface albedo and soil microclimates?

The phenology of vegetation, namely leaf-out and senescence, can influence the Earth's climate over regional spatial scales and long time periods (e.g., over 30 years or more), in addition to microclimates over local spatial scales and shorter time periods (weeks to months). However, the effects of flowers on climate and microclimate are unknown. We investigate whether flowers can influence light reflected by the land surface and soil microclimate in a subalpine meadow. We conducted a flower removal experiment with a common sunflower species, Helianthella quinquenervis, for 3 years (2015, 2017, and 2019). The flower removal treatment simulates the appearance of the meadow when Helianthella flowers earlier under climate change and loses its flowers to frost (other plant structures are not damaged by frost). We test the hypotheses that a reduction in cover of yellow flowers leads to a greener land surface, lower reflectance, warmer and drier soils, and increased plant water stress. Flower removal plots are greener, reflect less light, exhibit up to 1.2 °C warmer soil temperatures during the warmest daylight hours, and contain ca. 1% less soil moisture compared to controls. However, soils were warmer in only 2 of the 3 years, when flower abundance was high. Helianthella water use efficiency did not differ between removal and control plots. Our study provides evidence for a previously undocumented effect of flowers on soil microclimate, an effect that is likely mediated by climate change and flowering phenology. Many anthropogenic environmental changes alter landscape albedo, all of which could be mediated by flowers: climate change, plant invasions, and agriculture. This study highlights how further consideration of the effects of flowers on land surface albedo could improve our understanding of the effects of vegetation on microclimate.

Substantial shifts in flowering phenology of Sternbergia vernalis in the Himalaya: Supplementing decadal field records with historical and experimental evidences

In an age of anthropocene, shifting plant phenology is one of the most striking biological indicators of global environmental change. Majority of the studies reporting shifts in plant phenology are available from the North America and Europe and largely scarce from the developing world, including the Himalaya; and studies integrating multiple methodological approaches to investigate the climate-driven phenological shifts are too rare. Here, we report the shifts in spring flowering phenology of model plant species, Sternbergia vernalis in response to the changing climate in Kashmir Himalaya, by integrating decadal field observational records with long-term herbarium and dated-photograph data, and supported with experimental evidences. Our results revealed a significant increasing trend of 0.038, 0.016 and 0.023 °C/year in the annual mean maximum temperature (T_max), mean minimum temperature (T_min) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) respectively; but an insignificant decreasing trend in annual precipitation of -1.24 mm/year over the last four decades (1980-2019) in this Himalayan region. The flowering phenology of S. vernalis has significantly advanced by 11.8 days/°C and 27.8 days/°C increase in T_max and T_min respectively, indicating that the climate warming has led to substantial shifts in flowering phenology of the model plant species. We also observed a strong association of seasonal T_max (December-February) and DTR on the early onset of spring flowering, however precipitation had no significant effect on the timing of flowering. The greenhouse experiment results further supported a significant effect of temperature in triggering the phenological shifts, wherein the model plant grown under different temperature treatments flowered 9-20 days earlier compared to the control. Our study showcases the integrated use of multiple methodological approaches for unravelling the long-term phenological shifts in response to climate change, and contributes in filling the knowledge gaps in the phenological research from the developing world in general and the Himalaya in particular.

Region-specific phenological sensitivities and rates of climate warming generate divergent temporal shifts in flowering date across a species' range

PREMISE

Forecasting how species will respond phenologically to future changes in climate is a major challenge. Many studies have focused on estimating species- and community-wide phenological sensitivities to climate to make such predictions, but sensitivities may vary within species, which could result in divergent phenological responses to climate change.

METHODS

We used 743 herbarium specimens of the mountain jewelflower (Streptanthus tortuosus, Brassicaceae) collected over 112 years to investigate whether individuals sampled from relatively warm vs. cool regions differ in their sensitivity to climate and whether this difference has resulted in divergent phenological shifts in response to climate warming.

RESULTS

During the past century, individuals sampled from warm regions exhibited a 20-day advancement in flowering date; individuals in cool regions showed no evidence of a shift. We evaluated two potential drivers of these divergent responses: differences between regions in (1) the degree of phenological sensitivity to climate and (2) the magnitude of climate change experienced by plants, or (3) both. Plants sampled from warm regions were more sensitive to temperature-related variables and were subjected to a greater degree of climate warming than those from cool regions; thus our results suggest that the greater temporal shift in flowering date in warm regions is driven by both of these factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are among the first to demonstrate that species exhibited intraspecific variation in sensitivity to climate and that this variation can contribute to divergent responses to climate change. Future studies attempting to forecast temporal shifts in phenology should consider intraspecific variation.

Snow melt timing acts independently and in conjunction with temperature accumulation to drive subalpine plant phenology

Organisms use environmental cues to align their phenology-the timing of life events-with sets of abiotic and biotic conditions that favor the successful completion of their life cycle. Climate change has altered the environmental cues organisms use to track climate, leading to shifts in phenology with the potential to affect a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the drivers of phenological shifts is critical to predicting future responses, but disentangling the effects of temperature from precipitation on phenology is often challenging because they tend to covary. We addressed this knowledge gap in a high-elevation environment where phenological shifts are associated with both the timing of spring snow melt and temperature. We factorially crossed early snow melt and passive warming treatments to (1) disentangle the effects of snow melt timing and warming on the phenology of flowering and fruiting and reproductive success in three subalpine plant species (Delphinium nuttallianum, Valeriana edulis, and Potentilla pulcherrima); and (2) assess whether snow melt acts via temperature accumulation or some other aspect of the environment (e.g., soil moisture) to affect phenological events. Both the timing and duration of flowering and fruiting responded to the climate treatments, but the effect of snow melt timing and warming varied among species and phenological stages. The combined effects of the treatments on phenology were always additive, and the snow melt treatment often affected phenology even when the warming treatment did not. Despite marked responses of phenology to climate manipulations, the species showed little change in reproductive success, with only one species producing fewer seeds in response to warming (Delphinium, -56%). We also found that snow melt timing can act both through temperature accumulation and as a distinct cue for phenology, and these effects are not mutually exclusive. Our results show that one environmental cue, here snow melt timing, may act through multiple mechanisms to shift phenology.

Phenological traits foster persistence of mutualistic networks by promoting facilitation

Morphological and phenological traits are key determinants of the structure of mutualistic networks. Both traits create forbidden links, but phenological traits can also decouple interaction in time. While such difference likely affects the indirect effects among species and consequently network persistence, it remains overlooked. Here, using a dynamic model, we show that networks structured by phenology favour facilitation over competition within guilds of pollinators and plants, thereby increasing network persistence, while the contrary holds for networks structured by morphology. We further show that such buffering of competition by phenological traits mostly beneficiate to specialists, the most vulnerable species otherwise, which propagate the most positive effects within guilds and promote nestedness. Our results indicate that beyond trophic mismatch, phenological shifts such as those induced by climate change are likely to affect indirect effects within mutualistic assemblages, with consequences for biodiversity.

Grasshopper species' seasonal timing underlies shifts in phenological overlap in response to climate gradients, variability and change

Species with different life histories and communities that vary in their seasonal constraints tend to shift their phenology (seasonal timing) differentially in response to climate warming. We investigate how these variable phenological shifts aggregate to influence phenological overlap within communities. Phenological advancements of later season species and extended durations of early season species may increase phenological overlap, with implications for species' interactions such as resource competition. We leverage extensive historic (1958-1960) and recent (2006-2015) weekly survey data for communities of grasshoppers along a montane elevation gradient to assess the impact of climate on shifts in the phenology and abundance distributions of species. We then examine how these responses are influenced by the seasonal timing of species and elevation, and how in aggregate they influence degrees of phenological overlap within communities. In warmer years, abundance distributions shift earlier in the season and become broader. Total abundance responds variably among species and we do not detect a significant response across species. Shifts in abundance distributions are not strongly shaped by species' seasonal timing or sites of variable elevations. The area of phenological overlap increases in warmer years due to shifts in the relative seasonal timing of compared species. Species that overwinter as nymphs increasingly overlap with later season species that advance their phenology. The days of phenological overlap also increase in warm years but the response varies across sites of variable elevation. Our phenological overlap metric based on comparing single events-the dates of peak abundance-does not shift significantly with warming. Phenological shifts are more complex than shifts in single dates such as first occurrence. As abundance distributions shift earlier and become broader in warm years, phenological overlap increases. Our analysis suggests that overall grasshopper abundance is relatively robust to climate and associated phenological shifts but we find that increased overlap can decrease abundance, potentially by strengthening species interactions such as resource competition.

Climate, urbanization, and species traits interactively drive flowering duration

A wave of green leaves and multi-colored flowers advances from low to high latitudes each spring. However, little is known about how flowering offset (i.e., ending of flowering) and duration of populations of the same species vary along environmental gradients. Understanding these patterns is critical for predicting the effects of future climate and land-use change on plants, pollinators, and herbivores. Here, we investigated potential climatic and landscape drivers of flowering onset, offset, and duration of 52 plant species with varying key traits. We generated phenology estimates using >270,000 community-science photographs and a novel presence-only phenometric estimation method. We found longer flowering durations in warmer areas, which is more obvious for summer-blooming species compared to spring-bloomers driven by their strongly differing offset dynamics. We also found that higher human population density and higher annual precipitation are associated with delayed flowering offset and extended flowering duration. Finally, offset of woody perennials was more sensitive than herbaceous species to both climate and urbanization drivers. Empirical forecast models suggested that flowering durations will be longer in 2030 and 2050 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, especially for summer-blooming species. Our study provides critical insight into drivers of key flowering phenophases and confirms that Hopkins' Bioclimatic Law also applies to flowering durations for summer-blooming species and herbaceous spring-blooming species.

Early snowmelt and warmer, drier summers shrink postflowering transition times in subalpine wildflowers

Plant reproductive phenology-the timing of reproduction-is shifting rapidly with global climate change. Many studies focus on flowering responses to climate, but few investigate how postflowering processes, such as how quickly plants develop from flowering to seed dispersal, respond to environmental factors. We examined the climatic drivers of postflowering phenology in 28 species of western North American subalpine meadow plants over large spatial and temporal climate gradients. We took a Bayesian hierarchical approach to address whether and how climate influences the time it takes for wildflower populations to transition from flower to seed. Our previous work on the same species demonstrated that the initiation of flowering depends on snowmelt timing, with warmer temperatures and soil moisture also playing a role. Here, we found that for the majority of the flowering community, the same climate drivers also affected the time it takes to move from flowering to seed dispersal. Climate-sensitive species shortened flower-seed transitions when snow melted earlier, temperatures were warmer, and/or soil dried down more quickly-conditions we expect with higher frequency under climate change. Our work underscores the fact that predicting the impact of climate change on plant reproductive phenology demands empirical data on phases beyond flowering. Additionally, it suggests that some species face a future in which multiple environmental factors will push them towards more rapid transitions from flowering to postflowering phases, with potential effects on plants themselves and the many animal associates that rely on them, including frugivores and seed predators.

Detecting Montane Flowering Phenology with CubeSat Imagery

Shifts in wildflower phenology in response to climate change are well documented in the scientific literature. The majority of studies have revealed phenological shifts using in-situ observations, some aided by citizen science efforts (e.g., National Phenology Network). Such investigations have been instrumental in quantifying phenological shifts but are challenged by the fact that limited resources often make it difficult to gather observations over large spatial scales and long-time frames. However, recent advances in finer scale satellite imagery may provide new opportunities to detect changes in phenology. These approaches have documented plot level changes in vegetation characteristics and leafing phenology, but it remains unclear whether they can also detect flowering in natural environments. Here, we test whether fine-resolution imagery (<10 m) can detect flowering and whether combining multiple sources of imagery improves the detection process. Examining alpine wildflowers at Mt. Rainier National Park (MORA), we found that high-resolution Random Forest (RF) classification from 3-m resolution PlanetScope (from Planet Labs) imagery was able to delineate the flowering season captured by ground-based phenological surveys with an accuracy of 70% (Cohen’s kappa = 0.25). We then combined PlanetScope data with coarser resolution but higher quality imagery from Sentinel and Landsat satellites (10-m Sentinel and 30-m Landsat), resulting in higher accuracy predictions (accuracy = 77%, Cohen’s kappa = 0.39). The model was also able to identify the timing of peak flowering in a particularly warm year (2015), despite being calibrated on normal climate years. Our results suggest PlanetScope imagery holds utility in global change ecology where temporal frequency is important. Additionally, we suggest that combining imagery may provide a new approach to cross-calibrate sensors to account for radiometric irregularity inherent in fine resolution PlanetScope imagery. The development of this approach for wildflower phenology predictions provides new possibilities to monitor climate change effects on flowering communities at broader spatiotemporal scales. In protected and tourist areas where the flowering season draws large numbers of visitors, such as Mt. Rainier National Park, the modeling framework presented here could be a useful tool to manage and prioritize park resources.

Spring wildflower phenology and pollinator activity respond similarly to climatic variation in an eastern hardwood forest

Climate warming could disrupt species interactions if organisms' phenologies respond to climate change at different rates. Phenologies of plants and insects can be sensitive to temperature and timing of snowmelt; however, many important pollinators including ground-nesting bees have been little studied in this context. Without knowledge of the environmental cues affecting phenologies of co-occurring species, we have little ability to predict how species assemblages, and species interactions, will be affected by climate change. Here, we studied a hardwood forest understory over six years, to determine how spring temperatures, snowmelt timing, and photoperiod influence the phenology of two spring wildflowers (Anemone spp. and Trillium grandiflorum), activity of ground-nesting bees, and their temporal overlap. Surface degree-day accumulation was a better predictor of phenology for Anemone spp. (plant) and Nomada (bees) than were day of year (a proxy for photoperiod) or snowmelt date, whereas Trillium flowering appeared most sensitive to photoperiodic cues. Activity periods of Andrena and Lasioglossum bees were equally well described by degree-day accumulation and day of year. No taxon's phenology was best predicted by snowmelt date. Despite these differences among taxa in their phenological responses, timing of bee activity and flowering responded similarly to variation in snowmelt date and early spring temperatures. Furthermore, temporal overlap between flowering and bee activity was similar over the years of this study and was unaffected by variability in snowmelt date or temperature. Nevertheless, the differences among some taxa in their phenological responses suggests that diverging temporal shifts are a possibility for the future.

Low-cost observations and experiments return a high value in plant phenology research

Plant ecologists in the Anthropocene are tasked with documenting, interpreting, and predicting how plants respond to environmental change. Phenology, the timing of seasonal biological events including leaf-out, flowering, fruiting, and leaf senescence, is among the most visible and oft-recorded facets of plant ecology. Climate-driven shifts in plant phenology can alter reproductive success, interspecific competition, and trophic interactions. Low-cost phenology research, including observational records and experimental manipulations, is fundamental to our understanding of both the mechanisms and effects of phenological change in plant populations, species, and communities. Traditions of local-scale botanical phenology observations and data leveraged from written records and natural history collections provide the historical context for recent observations of changing phenologies. New technology facilitates expanding the spatial, taxonomic, and human interest in this research by combining contemporary field observations by researchers and open access community science (e.g., USA National Phenology Network) and available climate data. Established experimental techniques, such as twig cutting and common garden experiments, are low-cost methods for studying the mechanisms and drivers of plant phenology, enabling researchers to observe phenological responses under novel environmental conditions. We discuss the strengths, limitations, potential hidden costs (i.e., volunteer and student labor), and promise of each of these methods for addressing emerging questions in plant phenology research. Applied thoughtfully, economically, and creatively, many low-cost approaches offer novel opportunities to fill gaps in our geographic, taxonomic, and mechanistic understanding of plant phenology worldwide.

Native bees of high Andes of Central Chile (Hymenoptera: Apoidea): biodiversity, phenology and the description of a new species of Xeromelissa Cockerell (Hymenoptera: Colletidae: Xeromelissinae)

High-altitude ecosystems are found in mountain chains and plateaus worldwide. These areas tend to be underrepresented in insect biodiversity assessments because of the challenges related to systematic survey at these elevations, such as extreme climatic and geographic conditions. Nonetheless, high-altitude ecosystems are of paramount importance because they have been seen to be species pumps for other geographic areas, such as adjacent locations, functioning as buffers for population declines. Moreover, these ecosystems and their biodiversity have been proposed to be fast-responding indicators of the impacts caused by global climate change. Bees have been highlighted among the insect groups that have been affected by these problems. This work used bees as a proxy to demonstrate and reinforce the importance of systematic surveys of high-altitude ecosystems. Here, field collections were undertaken and an updated review was conducted for the native bee biodiversity of the high-altitude ecosystem found at the Andes system of central Chile, including the phenological trends of these insects during the flowering season. Of the 58 species that have been described for this location, we were able to confirm the occurrence of 46 of these species as a result of our sampling. In addition, thanks to these recent collections, a new species of Xeromelissa Cockerell is described in the present work. These findings highlight the need for further high-altitude insect surveys of this biome, which include both temporal and spatial complexity in their design, to allow for accurate assessment of bee species diversity and compositional changes in these mountain regions.

Changing Climate Drives Divergent and Nonlinear Shifts in Flowering Phenology across Elevations

Climate change is known to affect regional weather patterns and phenology; however, we lack understanding of how climate drives phenological change across local spatial gradients. This spatial variation is critical for determining whether subpopulations and metacommunities are changing in unison or diverging in phenology. Divergent responses could reduce synchrony both within species (disrupting gene flow among subpopulations) and among species (disrupting interspecific interactions in communities). We also lack understanding of phenological change in environments where life history events are frequently aseasonal, such as the tropical, arid, and semi-arid ecosystems that cover vast areas. Using a 33-year-long dataset spanning a 1,267-m semi-arid elevational gradient in the southwestern United States, we test whether flowering phenology diverged among subpopulations within species and among five communities comprising 590 species. Applying circular statistics to test for changes in year-round flowering, we show flowering has become earlier for all communities except at the highest elevations. However, flowering times shifted at different rates across elevations likely because of elevation-specific changes in temperature and precipitation, indicating diverging phenologies of neighboring communities. Subpopulations of individual species also diverged at mid-elevation but converged in phenology at high elevation. These changes in flowering phenology among communities and subpopulations are undetectable when data are pooled across the gradient. Furthermore, we show that nonlinear changes in flowering times over the 33-year record are obscured by traditional calculations of long-term trends. These findings reveal greater spatiotemporal complexity in phenological responses than previously recognized and indicate climate is driving phenological reshuffling across local spatial gradients.

Phenological shifts alter the seasonal structure of pollinator assemblages in Europe

Pollinators play an important role in terrestrial ecosystems by providing key ecosystem functions and services to wild plants and crops, respectively. The sustainable provision of such ecosystem functions and services requires diverse pollinator communities over the seasons. Despite evidence that climate warming shifts pollinator phenology, a general assessment of these shifts and their consequences on pollinator assemblages is still lacking. By analysing phenological shifts of over 2,000 species, we show that, on average, the mean flight date of European pollinators shifted to be 6 d earlier over the last 60 yr, while their flight period length decreased by 2 d. Our analysis further reveals that these shifts have probably altered the seasonal distribution of pollination function and services by decreasing the overlap among pollinators' phenologies within European assemblages, except in the most northeastern part of Europe. Such changes are expected to decrease the functional redundancy and complementarity of pollinator assemblages and, therefore, might alter the performance of pollination function and services and their robustness to ongoing pollinator extinctions.

An examination of climate-driven flowering-time shifts at large spatial scales over 153 years in a common weedy annual

PREMISE

Understanding species' responses to climate change is a critical challenge facing biologists today. Though many species are widespread, few studies of climate-driven shifts in flowering time have examined large continuous spatial scales for individual species. And even fewer studies have examined these shifts at time scales greater than a few decades.

METHODS

We used digitized herbarium specimens and PRISM climate data to produce the spatially and temporally broadest-scale study of flowering time in a single species to date, spanning the contiguous United States and 153 years (1863-2016) for a widespread weedy annual, Triodanis perfoliata (Campanulaceae). We examined factors driving phenological shifts as well as the roles of geographic and temporal scale in understanding these trends.

RESULTS

Year was a significant factor in both geospatial and climatic analyses, revealing that flowering time has advanced by ~9 days over the past ~150 years. We found that temperature as well as vapor pressure deficit, an understudied climatic parameter associated with evapotranspiration and water stress, were strongly associated with peak flowering. We also examined how sampling at different spatiotemporal scales influences the power to detect flowering-time shifts, finding that relatively large spatial and temporal scales are ideal for detecting flowering-time shifts in this widespread species.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the interplay of geospatial factors at different scales to examine how species respond to climate change.

Estimating flowering transition dates from status-based phenological observations: a test of methods

The scale of phenological research has expanded due to the digitization of herbarium specimens and volunteer based contributions. These data are status-based, representing the presence or absence of a specific phenophase. Modelling the progress of plant dormancy to growth and reproduction and back to dormancy requires estimating the transition dates from these status-based observations. There are several methods available for this ranging from statistical moments using the day of year to newly introduced methods using concepts from other fields. Comparing the proficiency of different estimators is difficult since true transition dates are rarely known. Here I use a recently released dataset of in-situ flowering observations of the perennial forb Echinacea angustifolia. In this dataset, due to high sampling frequency and unique physiology, the transition dates of onset, peak, and end of flowering are known to within 3 days. I used a Monte Carlo analysis to test eight different estimators across two scales using a range of sample sizes and proportion of flowering presence observations. I evaluated the estimators accuracy in predicting the onset, peak, and end of flowering at the population level, and predicting onset and end of flowering for individual plants. Overall, a method using a Weibull distribution performed the best for population level onset and end estimates, but other estimators may be more appropriate when there is a large amount of absence observations relative to presence observations. For individual estimates a method using the midway point between the first flower presence and most prior flower absence, within 7 days, is the best option as long as the restriction does not limit the final sample size. Otherwise, the Weibull method is adequate for individual estimates as well. These methods allow practitioners to effectively utilize the large amount of status-based phenological observations currently available.

Warmer temperatures advance flowering in a spring plant more strongly than emergence of two solitary spring bee species

Climate warming has the potential to disrupt plant-pollinator interactions or to increase competition of co-flowering plants for pollinators, due to species-specific phenological responses to temperature. However, studies focusing on the effect of temperature on solitary bee emergence and the flowering onset of their food plants under natural conditions are still rare. We studied the effect of temperature on the phenology of the two spring bees Osmia cornuta and Osmia bicornis, by placing bee cocoons on eleven grasslands differing in mean site temperature. On seven grasslands, we additionally studied the effect of temperature on the phenology of the red-list plant Pulsatilla vulgaris, which was the first flowering plant, and of co-flowering plants with later flowering. With a warming of 0.1°C, the abundance-weighted mean emergence of O. cornuta males advanced by 0.4 days. Females of both species did not shift their emergence. Warmer temperatures advanced the abundance-weighted mean flowering of P. vulgaris by 1.3 days per 0.1°C increase, but did not shift flowering onset of co-flowering plants. Competition for pollinators between P. vulgaris and co-flowering plants does not increase within the studied temperature range. We demonstrate that temperature advances plant flowering more strongly than bee emergence suggesting an increased risk of pollinator limitation for the first flowers of P. vulgaris.

Prairie plant phenology driven more by temperature than moisture in climate manipulations across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Plant phenology will likely shift with climate change, but how temperature and/or moisture regimes will control phenological responses is not well understood. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climate ecosystems where the warmest temperatures and greatest moisture availability are seasonally asynchronous. We examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels to four climate treatments (control, warming, drought, and warming plus additional precipitation) embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient within the Pacific Northwest, USA. At the population level, we monitored flowering and abundances in spring 2017 of eight range-restricted focal species planted both within and north of their current ranges. At the community level, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured from fall 2016 to summer 2018 to estimate peak live biomass, senescence, seasonal patterns, and growing season length. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than our moisture manipulations on phenology at both the population and community levels. Warming advanced flowering regardless of whether a species was within or beyond its current range. Importantly, many of our focal species had low abundances, particularly in the south, suggesting that establishment, in addition to phenological shifts, may be a strong constraint on their future viability. At the community level, warming advanced the date of peak biomass regardless of site or year. The date of senescence advanced regardless of year for the southern and central sites but only in 2018 for the northern site. Growing season length contracted due to warming at the southern and central sites (~3 weeks) but was unaffected at the northern site. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may exert strong influence on the timing of a variety of plant phenological events, especially those events that occur when temperature is most limiting, even in seasonally water-limited Mediterranean ecosystems.

Comparison of large-scale citizen science data and long-term study data for phenology modeling

Large‐scale observational data from citizen science efforts are becoming increasingly common in ecology, and researchers often choose between these and data from intensive local‐scale studies for their analyses. This choice has potential trade‐offs related to spatial scale, observer variance, and interannual variability. Here we explored this issue with phenology by comparing models built using data from the large‐scale, citizen science USA National Phenology Network (USA‐NPN) effort with models built using data from more intensive studies at Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites. We built statistical and process based phenology models for species common to each data set. From these models, we compared parameter estimates, estimates of phenological events, and out‐of‐sample errors between models derived from both USA‐NPN and LTER data. We found that model parameter estimates for the same species were most similar between the two data sets when using simple models, but parameter estimates varied widely as model complexity increased. Despite this, estimates for the date of phenological events and out‐of‐sample errors were similar, regardless of the model chosen. Predictions for USA‐NPN data had the lowest error when using models built from the USA‐NPN data, while LTER predictions were best made using LTER‐derived models, confirming that models perform best when applied at the same scale they were built. This difference in the cross‐scale model comparison is likely due to variation in phenological requirements within species. Models using the USA‐NPN data set can integrate parameters over a large spatial scale while those using an LTER data set can only estimate parameters for a single location. Accordingly, the choice of data set depends on the research question. Inferences about species‐specific phenological requirements are best made with LTER data, and if USA‐NPN or similar data are all that is available, then analyses should be limited to simple models. Large‐scale predictive modeling is best done with the larger‐scale USA‐NPN data, which has high spatial representation and a large regional species pool. LTER data sets, on the other hand, have high site fidelity and thus characterize inter‐annual variability extremely well. Future research aimed at forecasting phenology events for particular species over larger scales should develop models that integrate the strengths of both data sets.

Herbarium specimens reveal substantial and unexpected variation in phenological sensitivity across the eastern United States

Phenology is a key biological trait that can determine an organism's survival and provides one of the clearest indicators of the effects of recent climatic change. Long time-series observations of plant phenology collected at continental scales could clarify latitudinal and regional patterns of plant responses and illuminate drivers of that variation, but few such datasets exist. Here, we use the web tool CrowdCurio to crowdsource phenological data from over 7000 herbarium specimens representing 30 diverse flowering plant species distributed across the eastern United States. Our results, spanning 120 years and generated from over 2000 crowdsourcers, illustrate numerous aspects of continental-scale plant reproductive phenology. First, they support prior studies that found plant reproductive phenology significantly advances in response to warming, especially for early-flowering species. Second, they reveal that fruiting in populations from warmer, lower latitudes is significantly more phenologically sensitive to temperature than that for populations from colder, higher-latitude regions. Last, we found that variation in phenological sensitivities to climate within species between regions was of similar magnitude to variation between species. Overall, our results suggest that phenological responses to anthropogenic climate change will be heterogeneous within communities and across regions, with large amounts of regional variability driven by local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and differences in species assemblages. As millions of imaged herbarium specimens become available online, they will play an increasingly critical role in revealing large-scale patterns within assemblages and across continents that ultimately can improve forecasts of the impacts of climatic change on the structure and function of ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

A proxy-year analysis shows reduced soil temperatures with climate warming in boreal forest

Scientists unequivocally agree that winter air temperature (TA) in northern high latitudes will increase sharply with anthropogenic climate change, and that such increases are already pervasive. However, contrasting hypotheses and results exist regarding the magnitude and even direction of changes in winter soil temperature (TS). Here we use field and satellite data to examine the 'cold soil in a warm world' hypothesis for the first time in the boreal forest using a proxy year approach. In a proxy warm year with a mean annual temperature similar to that predicted for ~2080, average winter TS was reduced relative to the baseline year by 0.43 to 1.22 °C in open to forested sites. Similarly, average minimum and maximum winter TS declined, and the number of freeze-thaw events increased in the proxy warm year, corresponding to a reduction in the number of snow-covered days relative to the baseline year. Our findings indicate that early soil freezing as a result of delayed snowfall and reduced snow insulation from cold winter air are the main drivers of reduced winter active-layer TS (at ~2-cm depth) under warming conditions in boreal forest, and we also show that these drivers interact strongly with forest stand structure.