The Willingness to Pay for a Quality Adjusted Life Year: A Review of the Empirical Literature

Monetary value of health-a practical decision-making framework combining equity considerations and WTP

OBJECTIVE

We estimate the first monetary value of a health gain in Croatia to inform the debate about the appropriate "demand-side" cost-effectiveness thresholds in Croatia but also Central and Eastern Europe, where such debates are still uncommon. We test the empirical support for two equity considerations: age and severity operationalized as proportional shortfall (PS), and propose a pragmatic framework for combining equity considerations with the monetary value of health into a single threshold.

METHODS

We used the contingent valuation method to elicit the willingness to pay per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) in Croatia, using a representative sample of the population (N = 1,500, online survey). 29 EQ-5D health states were valued using payment scales and open-ended question as payment vehicles. To test the hypotheses, we used both parametric tests and non-parametric tests. Multilinear regression was employed to test the theoretical validity of the results.

RESULTS

The monetary value of a health gain in Croatia is equivalent to 1.15 of GDP per capita (equaling €17,000). Age of patients seems to be an important equity-related characteristic. The WTP per QALY in the age-neutral risk group (€11,900) was nearly equivalent to the WTP per QALY in the adult (neutral) risk group (€11,700) but lower by 16% compared to the WTP per QALY estimated in children (€14,200; p = 0.00). WTP estimates are theoretically valid and to, a small degree, scale sensitive. There is a positive association between the level of proportional shortfall and willingness to pay. To increase the usefulness of our results for the policy-makers, we combine the elicited preferences into a single decision-making framework and construct several cost-effectiveness thresholds based on willingness to pay and equity-related preferences. Based on empirical results, cost-effectiveness thresholds could range up to €20,308 for the most severe health conditions in children or could be lowered to €16,777 for less severe health conditions.

DISCUSSION

In Central and Eastern Europe, in spite of a growing understanding of the importance of further developing value-based assessment frameworks there has been very little empirical research to guide, inform and promote this development. Countries in this region use mainly GDP-based thresholds without empirical evidence to support such important decisions. This may lead to thresholds that are too high, with detrimental consequence for the pricing and reimbursement systems.

A systematic review on the direct approach to elicit the demand-side cost-effectiveness threshold: Implications for low- and middle-income countries

Several literature review studies have been conducted on cost-effectiveness threshold values. However, only a few are systematic literature reviews, and most did not investigate the different methods, especially in-depth reviews of directly eliciting WTP per QALY. Our study aimed to 1) describe the different direct approach methods to elicit WTP/QALY; 2) investigate factors that contribute the most to the level of WTP/QALY value; and 3) investigate the relation between the value of WTP/QALY and GDP per capita and give some recommendations on feasible methods for eliciting WTP/QALY in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A systematic review concerning select studies estimating WTP/QALY from a direct approach was carried out in seven databases, with a cut off date of 03/2022. The conversion of monetary values into 2021 international dollars (i$) was performed via CPI and PPP indexes. The influential factors were evaluated with Bayesian model averaging. Criteria for recommendation for feasible methods in LMICs are made based on empirical evidence from the systematic review and given the resource limitation in LMICs. A total of 12,196 records were identified; 64 articles were included for full-text review. The WTP/QALY method and values varied widely across countries with a median WTP/QALY value of i$16,647.6 and WTP/QALY per GDP per capita of 0.53. A total of 11 factors were most influential, in which the discrete-choice experiment method had a posterior probability of 100%. Methods for deriving WTP/QALY vary largely across studies. Eleven influential factors contribute most to the level of values of WTP/QALY, in which the discrete-choice experiment method was the greatest affected. We also found that in most countries, values for WTP/QALY were below 1 x GDP per capita. Some important principles are addressed related to what LMICs may be concerned with when conducting studies to estimate WTP/QALY.

A Framework for the Fair Pricing of Medicines

As high-cost medicines put increasing pressure on public health care budgets, the need to identify 'fair' prices for medicines has never been greater. This paper proposes a framework, built upon fundamental economic principles, that allows for the consideration of 'fair' prices for medicines. The framework incorporates key considerations from conventional supply-side and demand-side approaches for specifying a cost-effectiveness 'threshold', including the health opportunity cost borne by other patients ([Formula: see text]) and society's willingness to pay for marginal improvements in population health ([Formula: see text]). The costs incurred by manufacturers in developing and supplying new medicines are also considered, as are the incentives for manufacturers to strategically price up to any common price per unit of benefit (cost-effectiveness 'threshold') specified by the payer. The framework finds that, at any 'fair' price, a medicine's dynamically calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) lies below [Formula: see text]. When pricing medicines collectively, the framework finds that a common price below [Formula: see text] is required to maximize population health (consumer surplus) or to maximize total welfare (consumer and producer surplus). This framework has important policy implications for payers who wish to improve population health outcomes from constrained health care budgets. In particular, existing approaches to 'value-based pricing' should be reconsidered to ensure that patients receive a 'fair' share of the resulting economic surplus.

VOLY: The Monetary Value of a Life-Year at the End of Patients' Lives

OBJECTIVE

We explored the monetary value of the end-of-life (EoL) health gains, that is, the value of a life-year (VOLY) gained at the end of a patient's life in Croatia. We tested whether the nature of the illness under valuation (cancer and/or rare disease) is a factor in the valuation of EoL-VOLYs. The aim was for our results to contribute to the health and longevity valuation literature and more particularly to the debate on the appropriate cost-effectiveness threshold for EoL treatments as well as to provide input into the debate on the justifiability of a cancer and/or a rare disease premium when evaluating therapies.

METHODS

A contingent valuation was conducted in an online survey using a representative sample of the Croatian population (n = 1500) to calculate the willingness to pay for gains in the remaining life expectancy at the EoL, from the social-inclusive-individual perspective, using payment scales and an open-ended payment vehicle. Our approach mimics the actual decision-making problem of deciding whether to reimburse therapies targeting EoL conditions such as metastatic cancer whose main purpose is to extend life (and not add quality to life).

RESULTS

Average EoL-VOLY across all scenarios was estimated at €67,000 (median €40,000). In scenarios that offered respondents 1 full year of life extension, EoL-VOLY was estimated at €33,000 (median €22,000). Our results show that the type of illness is irrelevant for EoL-VOLY evaluations.

CONCLUSIONS

The pressure to reimburse expensive therapies targeting EoL conditions will continue to increase. Delivering "value for money" in healthcare, both in countries with relatively higher and lower budget restrictions, requires the valuation of different types of health gains, which should, in turn, affect our ability to evaluate their cost effectiveness.

Valuing life over the life cycle

Adjusting the valuation of life along the (i) person-specific (age, health, wealth) and (ii) mortality risk-specific (beneficial or detrimental, temporary or permanent changes) dimensions is relevant in prioritizing healthcare interventions. These adjustments are provided by solving a life cycle model of consumption, leisure and health choices and the associated Hicksian variations for mortality changes. The calibrated model yields plausible Values of Life Year between 154K$ and 200K$ and Values of Statistical Life close to 6.0M$. The willingness to pay (WTP) and to accept (WTA) compensation are equal and symmetric for one-shot beneficial and detrimental changes in mortality risk. However, permanent, and expected longevity changes are both associated with larger willingness for gains, relative to losses, and larger WTA than WTP. Ageing lowers both variations via falling resources and health, lower marginal continuation utility of living and decreasing longevity returns of changes in mortality.

Cost-effectiveness of implant movement analysis in aseptic loosening after hip replacement: a health-economic model

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the cost-effectiveness of using Implant Movement Analysis (IMA) to follow up suspected aseptic loosening when the diagnosis after an initial X-ray is not conclusive, compared with a diagnostic pathway with X-ray follow-up.

METHODS

A health-economic model in the form of a decision tree was developed using quality-adjusted life years (QALY) from the literature, cost-per-patient data from a university hospital and the probabilities of different events from expert physicians' opinions. The base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was compared with established willingness-to-pay thresholds and sensitivity analyses were performed to account for assumptions and uncertainty.

RESULTS

The base case ICER indicated that the IMA pathway was cost effective (SEK 99,681, compared with the SEK 500,000 threshold). In the sensitivity analysis, the IMA pathway remained cost effective during most changes in parameters. ICERs above the threshold value occurred in cases where a larger or smaller proportion of people receive immediate surgery.

CONCLUSION

A diagnostic pathway using IMA after an inconclusive X-ray for suspected aseptic loosening was cost effective compared with a pathway with X-ray follow-up.

Can Independently Elicited Adult- and Child-Perspective Health-State Utilities Explain Priority Setting?

OBJECTIVES

Time trade-off (TTO) utilities for EQ-5D-Y-3L health states valued by adults taking a child's perspective are generally higher than their valuations of the same state for themselves. Ceteris paribus, the use of these utilities in economic evaluation implies that children gain less from treatments returning them to full health for a specified amount of time than adults. In this study, we explore if this implication affects individuals' views of priority-setting choices between treatments for adults and children.

METHODS

We elicited TTO utilities for 4 health states in online interviews, in which respondents valued states for a 10-year-old child and another adult their age. Views on priority setting were studied with person trade-off (PTO) tasks involving the same health states. We tested the ability of the subjects' TTO utilities to predict these societal choices in PTO.

RESULTS

There are no significant differences between adult and child health state valuations in our study, but we do observe a substantial preference for treating children over adults in the PTO task.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that perspective-dependent health-state utilities only explain a small part of views on priority setting between adults and children. External equity weights might be useful to better explain the higher priority given to children.

Considering patient perspectives in economic evaluations of health interventions

Current guidelines for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of health interventions commonly recommend the use of a payer and/or a societal perspective. This raises the concern that the resulting reimbursement decision may overlook the full spectrum of impacts and equity considerations. In this paper, we argue that a potential solution is to supplement a societal- or payer-perspective economic evaluation with an additional evaluation accounting for exclusively the patient perspective. We present five categories of health interventions for which a patient-perspective analysis may be informative including those (1) that cross the definitional boundary between drugs and non-drug technologies; (2) affect patient adherence to protocol; (3) represent revolutionary treatments for genetic disorders; (4) with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio involving slightly less effective, but substantially less costly, than the current standard; and (5) have been previously approved for funding but now being targeted for potential delisting or disinvestment. Real-world examples are discussed in detail. Lived experience individuals were invited to provide vignettes. Discussions are provided regarding how to incorporate patient inputs to improve patient-centered decision-making.

The Forgotten Middle: Worsening Health And Economic Trends Extend To Americans With Modest Resources Nearing Retirement

In an aging US society, anticipating the challenges that future seniors will face is essential. This study analyzed the health and economic well-being of five cohorts of Americans in their mid-fifties between 1994 and 2018 using the Future Elderly Model, a dynamic microsimulation based on the Health and Retirement Study. We projected mortality, quality-adjusted life years, health expenditures, and income and benefits. We classified individuals by economic status and focused on the lower middle and upper middle of the economic distribution. Outcome disparities between people in these two groups widened substantially between the 1994 and 2018 cohorts. Quality-adjusted life expectancy increased (5 percent) for the upper-middle economic status group but stagnated for their lower-middle peers. We found that the combined value of the current stock (financial and housing wealth) and the present value of the expected flow of resources (income, health expenditures, and quality-adjusted life-years) after age sixty grew 13 percent for the upper-middle group between cohorts, whereas people in the lower-middle group in 2018 were left scarcely better off (3 percent growth) than their peers two decades earlier. The relatively neglected "forgotten middle" group of near-retirees in the lower-middle group may require stronger supports than are currently available to them.

Cost-effectiveness and willing-to-pay thresholds for vertebral augmentation of osteoporotic vertebral fractures, what are they based on: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Although there is substantial clinical evidence on the safety and effectiveness of vertebral augmentation for osteoporotic vertebral fractures, cost-effectiveness is less well known. The objective of this study is to provide a systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies and policy-based willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds for different vertebral augmentation (VA) procedures, vertebroplasty (VP) and balloon kyphoplasty (BK), for osteoporotic vertebral fractures (OVFs).

DESIGN

A systematic review targeting cost-effectiveness studies of VA procedures for OVFs.

DATA SOURCES

Six bibliographic databases were searched from inception up to May 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies were eligible if meeting all predefined criteria: (1) VP or BK intervention, (2) OVFs and (3) cost-effectiveness study. Articles not written in English, abstracts, editorials, reviews and those reporting only cost data were excluded.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Information was extracted on study characteristics, cost-effective estimates, summary decisions and payer WTP thresholds. Incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) was the main outcome measure. Studies were summarised by a structured narrative synthesis organised by comparisons with conservative management (CM). Two independent reviewers assessed the quality (risk of bias) of the systematic review and cost-effectiveness studies by peer-reviewed checklists.

RESULTS

We identified 520 references through database searching and 501 were excluded as ineligible by titles and abstract. Ten reports were identified as eligible from 19 full-text reviews. ICER for VP versus CM evaluated as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) ranged from €22 685 (*US$33 395) in Netherlands to £-2240 (*US$-3273), a cost-saving in the UK. ICERs for BK versus CM ranged from £2706 (*US$3954) in UK to kr600 000 (*US$90 910) in Sweden. ICERs were within payer WTP thresholds for a QALY based on historical benchmarks.

CONCLUSIONS

Both VP and BK were judged cost-effective alternatives to CM for OVFs in economic studies and were within WTP thresholds in multiple healthcare settings.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MRI in Radiotherapy Planning in Patients with Intermediate-Risk Meningioma

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

While contrast-enhanced MR imaging is the criterion standard in meningioma diagnosis and treatment response assessment, gallium 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging has increasingly demonstrated utility in meningioma diagnosis and management. Integrating 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging in postsurgical radiation planning reduces the planning target volume and organ-at-risk dose. However, 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging is not widely implemented in clinical practice due to higher perceived costs. Our study analyzes the cost-effectiveness of 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging for postresection radiation therapy planning in patients with intermediate-risk meningioma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We developed a decision-analytical model based on both recommended guidelines on meningioma management and our institutional experience. Markov models were implemented to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Cost-effectiveness analyses with willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY were performed from a societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to validate the results. Model input values were based on published literature.

RESULTS

The cost-effectiveness results demonstrated that 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging yields higher QALY (5.47 versus 5.05) at a higher cost ($404,260 versus $395,535) compared with MR imaging alone. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio analysis determined that 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging is cost-effective at a willingness to pay of $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses showed that 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging is cost-effective at $50,000/QALY ($100,000/QALY) for specificity and sensitivity values above 76% (58%) and 53% (44%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging as an adjunct imaging technique is cost-effective in postoperative treatment planning in patients with meningiomas. Most important, the model results show that the sensitivity and specificity cost-effective thresholds of 68Ga-DOTATATE PET/MR imaging could be attained in clinical practice.

Expanding population-level interventions to help more low-income smokers quit: Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Low-income Americans have higher rates of smoking and a greater burden of smoking-related disease. In the United States, smokers in every state can access evidence-based telephone counseling through free tobacco quitlines. However, quitlines target smokers who are ready to quit in the next 30 days, which can exclude many low-income smokers. A smoke-free homes intervention may help engage smokers in tobacco control services who are not yet ready to quit. Previous research in low-income populations suggests that receiving a smoke-free homes intervention is associated with higher quit rates. This study tests whether, at a population level, expanding on quitlines to include a smoke-free homes intervention for smokers not ready to quit could engage more low-income smokers and increase long-term cessation rates.

METHODS

In a Hybrid Type 2 design, participants are recruited from 211 helplines in 9 states and randomly assigned to standard quitline or quitline plus smoke-free homes intervention arms. Participants in both arms are initially offered quitline services. In the quitline plus smoke-free homes condition, participants who decline the quitline are then offered a smoke-free homes intervention. Participants complete a baseline and follow-up surveys at 3 and 6 months. Those who have not yet quit at the 3-month follow-up are re-offered the interventions, which differ by study arm. The primary study outcome is self-reported 7-day point prevalence abstinence from smoking at 6-month follow-up.

CONCLUSION

This real-world cessation trial involving 9 state tobacco quitlines will help inform whether offering smoke-free homes as an alternative intervention could engage more low-income smokers with evidence-based interventions and increase overall cessation rates. This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (Study Identifier: NCT04311983).

From lockdown to precise prevention: Adjusting epidemic-related spatial regulations from the perspectives of the 15-minute city and spatiotemporal planning

The COVID-19 pandemic challenged emergency management in cities worldwide. Many municipalities adopted restrictive, one-size-fits-all spatial regulations such as lockdowns without fully considering the inhabitants' daily activities and local economies. The existing epidemic regulations' unintended detrimental effects on socioeconomic sustainability necessitate a transition from the "lockdown" approach to more precise disease prevention. A spatially and temporally precise approach that balances epidemic prevention with the demands of daily activities and local economies is needed. Thus, the aim of this study was to propose a framework and key procedures for determining precise prevention regulations from the perspectives of the 15-minute city concept and spatiotemporal planning. Alternative regulations of lockdowns were determined by delineating 15-minute neighborhoods, identifying and reconfiguring facility supplies and activity demands in both normal and epidemic conditions, and performing cost-benefit analyses. Highly adaptable, spatially- and temporally-precise regulations can match the needs of different types of facilities. We demonstrated the process for determining precise prevention regulations in the case of the Jiulong 15-minute neighborhood in Beijing. Precise prevention regulations-which meet essential activity demands and are adaptable for different facility types, times, and neighborhoods-have implications for long-term urban planning and emergency management.

The social value of health: Amenable deaths and estimated the gap with the life expectancy frontier

We estimate the life expectancy gaps that can be bridged by improving the quality of public health and health care policies at the country level. Our model calculates the net effect of amenable deaths on life expectancy after controlling for time effects and factors affecting amenable deaths related to education, health policies (health expenditure to GDP and waiting lists), and per capita income in a two equation system. We further estimate the life expectancy gap that countries with lower quality health systems can bridge by catching up and reaching the existing health quality frontier and compute the social value of that upside potential.

The Value of Health in a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Theory Versus Practice

A cost-effectiveness analysis has become an important method to inform allocation decisions and reimbursement of new technologies in healthcare. A cost-effectiveness analysis requires a threshold to which the cost effectiveness of a new intervention can be compared. In principle, the threshold ought to reflect opportunity costs of reimbursing a new technology. In this paper, we contrast the practical use of this threshold within a CEA with its theoretical underpinnings. We argue that several assumptions behind the theoretical models underlying this threshold are violated in practice. This implies that a simple application of the decision rules of CEA using a single estimate of the threshold does not necessarily improve population health or societal welfare. Conceptual differences regarding the interpretation of the threshold, widely varying estimates of its value, and an inconsistent use within and outside the healthcare sector are important challenges in informing policy makers on optimal reimbursement decision and setting appropriate healthcare budgets.

The value of a QALY towards the end of life and its determinants: Experimental evidence

OBJECTIVES

Individual and societal willingness to pay (WTP) for end-of-life medical interventions continue to be subject to considerable uncertainty. This study aims at deriving both types of WTP estimates for an extension of survival time and an improvement of quality of life amounting to a QALY.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) involving a hypothetical novel drug for the treatment of terminal cancer involving 1529 Swiss residents was performed in 2014. In its individual setting, respondents choose between the status quo and a hypothetical drug with varying characteristics and out-of-pocket payments, adopting the perspective of a terminal cancer patient. In the societal setting, participants are asked to choose between the status quo and a social health insurance contract with and without coverage of the novel drug and a varying insurance contribution.

RESULTS

In the individual setting, respondents put a higher value on their quality of life than on their survival time whereas in the societal setting, they put a higher value on extra survival time. The combination of the two extensions results in a mean individual WTP per QALY of CHF 96,150 (1 CHF = 1 USD as of 2014). Mean societal WTP for a QALY even amounts to CHF 213,500 in favor of an adult patient, CHF 255,600 for a child, and CHF 153,600 for a person aged over 70 years, respectively. While estimated societal values consistently exceed their individual counterparts, they vary considerably with respondents' socioeconomic characteristics in both settings.

CONCLUSIONS

This research finds that individual WTP for an extension of survival time to one year is dominated by WTP for health-related quality of life whereas for societal WTP, it is the other way round. Both individual and societal WTP values exhibit a great deal of heterogeneity, with the latter depending on the type of beneficiary.

Valuation of health benefits of green-blue areas for the purpose of ecosystem accounting: a pilot in Flanders, Belgium

In recent years, a vast amount of scientific literature has highlighted the benefits of nearby green space for physical and mental health, but the large variation in scope, methods and indicators used in these studies hampers the assessment of these benefits in the context of natural capital accounting. To our knowledge, this paper is one of the first studies to quantify and value these benefits in the context of natural capital accounting. A method was developed and applied to the Flemish Region in Belgium for 2013 and 2016.

The physical supply and use accounts for health are based on a set of selected dose-effect relationships that quantify the impact of the availability of greenspace on seven specific indicators for physical and mental health, including mortality, cardio-vascular diseases, diabetes and depression. The indicator for green-blue areas is the percentage of green-blue areas in total land use, calculated for 0.5, 1 and 3 km radius from the residence, based on detailed land-use maps (10 m x 10 m) for Flanders, Belgium. The base-line data for mortality and illness are average data for the Flemish Region. These health impacts are weighted using Daly's (disability-adjusted life years) and aggregated. The total health benefits due to the availability of green-blue areas for the total Flemish population was estimated at almost 85,000 DALYs. This is 27% of the estimated total burden of disease in Flanders in 2016 for the seven selected diseases.

The monetary accounts are based on a detailed assessment for mortality and morbidity of three different cost components, i.e. avoided medical costs (e.g. hospitalisation) and avoided absenteeism and welfare loss due to suffering and reduced life expectancy. Productivity gains from avoided absenteeism is valued, based on statistics on absenteeism for specific diseases for and labour market data from Belgium and account for 52% of the total monetary value of green spaces. Cost of illness is valued, based on market data and illness specific studies for Belgium or Europe and account for 36% of total values. Welfare gains from increased life expectancy are valued on the basis of European studies for the VOLY (value of a life year lost), based on the simulated exchange value for the willingness-to-pay for increased life expectancy. This accounts for 12% of the total monetary value of green space. The total monetary benefits amount to 464 Euro per inhabitant per year or 3 billion Euro per year for Flanders. This corresponds to 1.3% of the GDP, which reflects the importance of these benefits.

The methodology is incomplete as not all health indicators are covered, mainly due to a lack of dose-effect relationships. The research priority for potential users of the accounts is a better indicator for contact with green space that does differentiate between ecosystems, their quality, accessibility or their use. This requires more systematic health impact studies that take these elements into account, as well as more systematic data on the daily use of green space by citizens. In the meantime, an additional set of condition accounts on these elements can be used, especially to follow changes in quality and use of green-blue areas over time.

The Allocation of the Economic Value of Second-Generation Antipsychotics Over the Product Life Cycle: The Case of Risperidone in Sweden and the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

This article estimates the life-cycle value of risperidone as representative of second-generation antipsychotics (SGA) relative to haloperidol (first-generation antipsychotics).

METHODS

We estimated the number of patients treated with risperidone in Sweden and the United Kingdom, from 1994 to 2017, using data of usage and volume sales. We collected data from the literature on the effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years per patient per year), direct costs (health services), and indirect costs (productivity) of risperidone and haloperidol. We proxied the incremental value added by the new class (SGA) using a comparator from the inferior class. Next, we modeled the life-cycle uptake of risperidone to estimate the life-cycle incremental cost (ie, direct, indirect, and medicine costs), incremental quality-adjusted life-years, and net monetary benefit of risperidone. We also assessed the life-cycle distribution of the social surplus between the payer (consumer surplus) and the innovator (producer surplus).

RESULTS

For the United Kingdom, consumer surplus represents around 72% of the total surplus before patent expiration and around 95% after patent expiration. For Sweden, the consumer surplus represents around 94% of the total surplus before patent expiration and around 99% after generic competition.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that the value added by SGAs to the system is higher than the expected value estimated using cost-effectiveness analysis at launch. Pricing and reimbursement decisions could recognize the full life cycle of value of innovative medicines. This not only presents a challenge of estimation but also of assessing the appropriate division of shares of social value.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of LungLB for the clinical management of patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules

BACKGROUND

There is currently a need for additional diagnostic information to help guide treatment decisions and to properly determine the best treatment pathway for patients identified with indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs). The aim of this study was to demonstrate the incremental cost-effectiveness of LungLB compared to the current clinical diagnostic pathway (CDP) in the management of patients with IPNs, from a US payer's perspective.

METHODS

A decision tree and Markov model hybrid was chosen from a payer perspective in the US setting, based on published literature, to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness of LungLB compared to the current CDP in the management of patients with IPNs. Primary endpoints of the analysis include expected costs, life years (LYs), and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each arm of the model, as well as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), which is calculated as the incremental costs per QALY, and net monetary benefit (NMB).

RESULTS

We find that, with the inclusion of LungLB to the current CDP diagnostic pathway, expected LYs over the typical patient's lifespan increase by 0.07 years and QALYs increase by 0.06. The average patient in the CDP arm will pay approximately $44,310 over their lifespan, while a patient in the LungLB arm will pay $48,492, resulting in a difference of $4,182. The differentials between the CDP and LungLB arms of the model in costs and QALYs yield an ICER of $75,740 per QALY and an incremental NMB of $1,339.

CONCLUSION

This analysis provides evidence that LungLB, in conjunction with CDP, is a cost-effective alternative compared to the current CDP alone in a US setting for individuals with IPNs.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of abemaciclib with endocrine therapy (ET) versus ET alone for HR+, HER2-, node-positive, high-risk early breast cancer in Italy

Background

Abemaciclib was recently approved by the European Medicines Agency in combination with adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) for adult patients with hormone receptor positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HER2-), node-positive early breast cancer (EBC) at high risk of recurrence.

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of abemaciclib plus ET vs. ET alone in patients with HR+, HER2-, node-positive EBC at high risk of disease recurrence, from the Italian healthcare system perspective.

Methods

A cohort state transition model was developed with five states: invasive disease-free survival (IDFS), nonmetastatic recurrence, remission, metastatic recurrence, and death. The analysis had a time horizon of 30 years. Individual patient-level data from the monarchE trial (NCT03155997) were used to generate IDFS estimates. Resource use included drug acquisition/administration, best supportive care, terminal care, adverse events, hospitalization, post-progression therapy, and associated resource use in the metastatic disease health state. Health state utilities were derived from monarchE patient-level data and other sources, applying Italian tariffs where feasible.

Results

The estimated total discounted costs (€39,249 vs. €16,806; difference: €22,443) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (11.49 vs. 10.50; difference: 0.99) were higher for abemaciclib plus ET compared with ET alone. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €22,651 per QALY gained. The likelihood of abemaciclib plus ET being cost-effective vs. ET alone was 99% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000 per QALY gained.

Conclusion

Abemaciclib plus ET is a cost-effective treatment option vs. ET alone for those with HR+, HER2- node-positive EBC at high risk of recurrence in Italy.

Estimating a social value set for EQ-5D-5L in Sweden

BACKGROUND

The study aims to elicit a value set based on the EQ-VT for the EQ-5D-5L that can be used to support decision-making in Sweden.

METHODS

Participants were recruited from the general population based on age, sex and urban/rural area quota sampling from five regions across Sweden. In total, 785 interviews were conducted from February 2020 to April 2021 using the EQVT 2.1 protocol, and both composite time trade-off (c-TTO) and discrete choice experiments (DCE) were used to elicit health preferences. A variety of models have been tested for the c-TTO data (generalized least square, Tobit, heteroskedastic models) and DCE data (conditional logit model), as well as the combined c-TTO and DCE data (hybrid modelling). Model selection was based on theoretical considerations, logical consistency of the parameter estimates, and significance of the parameters (p = 0.05). Model goodness-of-fit was assessed by AIC and BIC, and prediction accuracy was assessed in terms of mean absolute error. The predictions for the EQ-5D-5L health states between models were compared using scatterplots.

RESULTS

The preferred model for generating the value set was the heteroskedastic model based on the c-TTO data, with the health utilities ranging from -0.31 for the worst (55,555) to 1 for the best (11111) EQ-5D-5L states.

CONCLUSION

This is the first c-TTO-based social value set for the EQ-5D-5L in Sweden. It can be used to support the health utility estimation in economic evaluations for reimbursement decision making in Sweden.

Cost-Effectiveness of Nadofaragene Firadenovec and Pembrolizumab in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Immunotherapy Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer

OBJECTIVES

Nadofaragene firadenovec is a gene therapy for bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) undergoing Food and Drug Administration review. Pembrolizumab is approved for treating patients with BCG-unresponsive NMIBC with carcinoma in situ (CIS). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of these treatments compared with a hypothetical therapeutic alternative, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, in CIS and non-CIS BCG-unresponsive NMIBC populations.

METHODS

We developed a Markov cohort simulation model with a 3-month cycle length and lifetime horizon to estimate the total costs, QALYs, and cost per additional QALY from the health sector perspective. Clinical inputs were informed by results of single-arm clinical trials evaluating the treatments, and systematic literature reviews were conducted to obtain other model inputs. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty in model results.

RESULTS

Nadofaragene firadenovec, at a placeholder price 10% higher than the price of pembrolizumab, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $263 000 and $145 000 per QALY gained in CIS and non-CIS populations, respectively. Pembrolizumab had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $168 000 per QALY gained for CIS. A 5.4% reduction in pembrolizumab's price would make it cost-effective. The model was sensitive to many inputs, especially to the probabilities of disease progression, initial treatment response and durability, and drug price.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of nadofaragene firadenovec will depend upon its price. Pembrolizumab, although not cost-effective in our base-case analysis, is an important alternative in this population with an unmet medical need. Comparative trials of these treatments are warranted to better estimate cost-effectiveness.

Economic evaluation: a reader's guide to studies of cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Understanding what an economic evaluation is, how to interpret it, and what it means for making choices in a health delivery context is necessary to contribute to decisions about healthcare resource allocation. The aim of this paper to demystify the working parts of a health economic evaluation, and explain to clinicians and clinical researchers how to read and interpret cost-effectiveness research.

MAIN BODY

This primer distils key content and constructs of economic evaluation studies, and explains health economic evaluation in plain language. We use the PICOT (participant, intervention, comparison, outcome, timeframe) clinical trial framework familiar to clinicians, clinical decision-makers, and clinical researchers, who may be unfamiliar with economics, as an aide to reading and interpreting cost-effectiveness research. We provide examples, primarily of physiotherapy interventions for osteoarthritis.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic evaluation studies are essential to improve decisions about allocating resources, whether those resources be your time, the capacity of your service, or the available funding across the entire healthcare system. The PICOT framework can be used to understand and interpret cost-effectiveness research.

Determination of a cost-effectiveness threshold for cancer interventions in Iran

Background and objectives

The estimation of a cost- Effectiveness (CE) threshold from the perspective of those who have experienced a life-threatening disease can provide empirical evidence for health policy makers to make the best allocation decisions on limited resources. The aim of the current study was to empirically determine the CE threshold for cancer interventions from the perspective of cancer patients in Iran.

Methods

A composite time trade-off (cTTO) task for deriving quality adjusted life-year (QALY) and a double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) approach followed by open-ended question for examining patients' willingness-to-pay were performed. A nationally representative sample of 580 cancer patients was recruited from the largest governmental cancer centers in Iran between June 2021 and January 2022, and data were gathered using face-to-face interviews. The CE threshold was calculated using the nonparametric Turnbull model and parametric interval-censored Weibull regression model. Furthermore, the factors that affect the CE threshold were determined using the parametric model.

Results

The estimated CE threshold using the nonparametric Turnbull model and parametric interval-censored Weibull regression model was IRR 440,410,000 (USD 10,485.95) and IRR 595,280,000 (USD 14,173.33) per QALY, respectively. Gender, age, education, income, type of cancer, and current treatment status were significantly associated with the estimated CE threshold.

Conclusions

The value of parametric model-based threshold in this study was 1.98 times the Iranian GDP per capita, which was lower than the CE threshold value recommended by the WHO (i.e., 3 times the GDP per capita) for low-and middle-income countries.

Using water-adjusted person years to quantify the value of being water secure for an individual's quality of life

Domestic water insecurity harms quality of life outcomes beyond health, for example in worry about water availability or anger at disrupted plans. However, these outcomes are excluded from cost-benefit analyses of water supply interventions, which typically measure and value only prevented disease and time savings. In this paper, I propose a means of quantifying the value of being water secure for an individual's quality of life, the water-adjusted person year (WAPY). One WAPY represents a year lived in complete water security. It is inspired by the quality-adjusted life year in health economics, which combines time with a health-related quality of life index. The WAPY combines time using water services with a water-related quality of life (WaterQoL) index, where 0 = completely water insecure and 1 = completely water secure. The index could be derived from an existing four-attribute Water Insecurity Experiences scale, which includes questions such as "how often did you worry that you would not have enough water for all of your needs?". Other questions concern drinking water, disrupted plans, and handwashing. Responses can be combined in a weighted index based on the relative importance of the four attributes to people. If someone has a WaterQoL index of 0.6, over a 10 year period they would have 6 WAPYs. If a water supply intervention raised WaterQoL to 0.8, they would gain 2 WAPYs over 10 years. The monetary value of WAPYs gained (e.g. in US$) could be estimated by willingness to pay and included in a cost-benefit analysis. Some interventions might result in greater WaterQoL gains than others, or longer-lasting services. Incorporating WAPYs in cost-benefit analyses, alongside prevented disease and time savings, could help identify interventions which provide better water services to more people within a given budget.

Willingness to Pay for One Additional Quality Adjusted Life Year: A Population Based Survey from China

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the population's willingness to pay (WTP) for an additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) in China.

METHODS

The WTP for an additional QALY (WTP/Q) was estimated using a contingent valuation survey with quota sampling and snowball sampling, using a pre-designed questionnaire with 18 hypothetical scenarios. The change in health state was depicted by the EQ-5D-5L. The questionnaires were completed by telephone and face-to-face interviews. Two-part regression models were used to test validity and how different factors affect WTP/Q.

RESULTS

A total of 2008 people participated in this survey and provided 3265 WTP responses for further analysis. The average WTP/Q for the entire sample is 113,120 Renminbi (RMB) (USD 16,884), which is 1.75 times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. For the quality-of-life improvement scenarios, the mean WTP/Q is RMB 78,907 (USD 11,777, 1.22 times GDP per capita), which is significantly lower than the life extension scenarios (RMB 177,761, USD 26,531, 2.76 times GDP per capita). Age was found to be negatively related to positive WTP. Educational level was positively related to the probability of reporting positive WTP and the level of WTP/Q. Although the EQ-5D-5L utility scores of respondents did not prove to be statistically significant determinants of WTP/Q, the two dimensions of EQ-5D-5L, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression, had an impact on WTP/Q. In addition, WTP/Q was higher when the health outcome had a 50% probability of occurring than when the health outcome was 100% certain. WTP/Q was higher when a lower health gain was presented to the respondent.

CONCLUSION

This study provides empirical evidence of the monetary value of an additional QALY from a sample of the Chinese population. In addition, a higher threshold for end-of-life therapies should be considered.

The Impact of ADHD on Maternal Quality of Life

Childhood attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with substantial burden to caregiver quality of life (QoL). However, a paucity of work has focused on quantifying QoL among caregivers of adolescents with a history of ADHD. The purpose of the current study was (1) to quantify maternal QoL in a sample of mothers of adolescents with and without childhood ADHD; and (2) to examine predictors (i.e., parent and child characteristics and behavior) associated with maternal QoL. Participants included mothers of adolescents with (N = 110) and without ADHD (N = 90) ranging in age from 13 to 18 (M = 16.09, 92% male). The Quality Adjusted Life-Year (QALY) was used to calculate maternal QoL using two health domains (i.e., anxiety/depression and disruption in daily activities) commonly impacted by raising youth with ADHD. QALYs are valued monetarily to estimate disease burden. Mothers of adolescents with childhood ADHD experienced significantly worse QoL relative to mothers in the comparison group. Maternal depression, as well as adolescent age, ADHD status, and discipline problems significantly predicted lower levels of maternal QALY health status index, with ADHD being the strongest predictor. This is equal to a reduction in 1.96 QALYs when summed over the course of a child's lifetime and is associated with a loss of $98,000 to $196,000. Results of the investigation help to further elucidate the health impacts incurred by families of adolescents with ADHD and have important public health implications. Further, parental QoL should be considered when conceptualizing the financial and negative health impact of ADHD.

Willingness to pay for health gains from an international integrated early warning system for infectious disease outbreaks

Recently, due to the corona virus outbreak, pandemics and their effects have been at the forefront of the research agenda. However, estimates of the perceived value of early warning systems (EWSs) for identifying, containing, and mitigating outbreaks remain scarce. This paper aims to show how potential health gains due to an international EWS might be valued. This paper reports on a study into willingness to pay (WTP) in six European countries for health gains due to an EWS. The context in which health is gained, those affected, and the reduction in risk of contracting the disease generated by the EWS are varied across seven scenarios. Using linear regression, we analyse this 'augmented' willingness to pay for a QALY (WTP-Q) for each of the scenarios, where 'augmented' refers to the possible inclusion of context specific elements of value, such as feelings of safety. An initial WTP-Q estimate for the basic scenario is €17,400. This can be interpreted as a threshold for investment per QALY into an EWS. Overall, WTP estimates move in the expected directions (e.g. higher risk reduction leads to higher WTP). However, changes in respondents' WTP for reductions in risk were not proportional to the magnitude of the change in risk reduction. This study provided estimates of the monetary value of health gains in the context of a pandemic under seven scenarios which differ in terms of outcome, risk reduction and those affected. It also highlights the importance of future research into optimal ways of eliciting thresholds for investments in public health interventions.

Supply-Side Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: Questions for Evidence-Based Policy

There is growing interest in cost-effectiveness thresholds as a tool to inform resource allocation decisions in health care. Studies from several countries have sought to estimate health system opportunity costs, which supply-side cost-effectiveness thresholds are intended to represent. In this paper, we consider the role of empirical estimates of supply-side thresholds in policy-making. Recent studies estimate the cost per unit of health based on average displacement or outcome elasticity. We distinguish the types of point estimates reported in empirical work, including marginal productivity, average displacement, and outcome elasticity. Using this classification, we summarise the limitations of current approaches to threshold estimation in terms of theory, methods, and data. We highlight the questions that arise from alternative interpretations of thresholds and provide recommendations to policymakers seeking to use a supply-side threshold where the evidence base is emerging or incomplete. We recommend that: (1) policymakers must clearly define the scope of the application of a threshold, and the theoretical basis for empirical estimates should be consistent with that scope; (2) a process for the assessment of new evidence and for determining changes in the threshold to be applied in policy-making should be created; (3) decision-making processes should retain flexibility in the application of a threshold; and (4) policymakers should provide support for decision-makers relating to the use of thresholds and the implementation of decisions stemming from their application.

Economic evaluation of psychological treatments for common mental disorders in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Common mental disorders (CMDs) constitute a major public health and economic burden on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Systematic reviews of economic evaluations of psychological treatments for CMDs are limited. This systematic review examines methods, reports findings and appraises the quality of economic evaluations of psychological treatments for CMDs in LMICs. We searched a range of bibliographic databases (including PubMed, EconLit, APA-PsycINFO and Cochrane library) and the African Journals Online (AJoL) and Google Scholar platforms. We used a pre-populated template to extract data and the Drummond & Jefferson checklist for quality appraisal. We present results as a narrative synthesis. The review included 26 studies, mostly from Asia (12) and Africa (9). The majority were cost-effectiveness analyses (12), some were cost-utility analyses (5), with one cost-benefit analysis or combinations of economic evaluations (8). Most interventions were considered either cost-effective or potentially cost-effective (22), with 3 interventions being not cost-effective. Limitations were noted regarding appropriateness of conclusions drawn on cost-effectiveness, the use of cost-effectiveness thresholds and application of 'societal' incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to reflect value for money (VfM) of treatments. Non-specialist health workers (NSHWs) delivered most of the treatments (16) for low-cost delivery at scale, and costs should reflect the true opportunity cost of NSHWs' time to support the development of a sustainable cadre of health care providers. There is a 4-fold increase in economic evaluations of CMD psychological treatments in the last decade over the previous one. Yet, findings from this review highlight the need for better application of economic evaluation methodology to support resource allocation towards the World Health Organization recommended first-line treatments of CMDs. We suggest impact inventories to capture societal economic gains and propose a VfM assessment framework to guide researchers in evaluating cost-effectiveness.

Valuing COVID-19 Morbidity Risk Reductions

Many economic analyses, including those that address the COVID-19 pandemic, focus on the value of averting deaths and do not include the value of averting nonfatal illnesses. Yet incorporating the value of averting nonfatal cases may change conclusions about the desirability of the policy. While per case values may be small, the number of nonfatal cases is often large, far outstripping the number of fatal cases. The value of averting nonfatal cases is also increasingly important in evaluating COVID-19 policy options as vaccine- and infection-related immunity and treatments reduce the case-fatality rate. Unfortunately, little valuation research is available that explicitly addresses COVID-19 morbidity. We describe and implement an approach for approximating the value of averting nonfatal illnesses or injuries and apply it to COVID-19 in the United States. We estimate gains from averting COVID-19 morbidity of about 0.01 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) per mild case averted, 0.02 QALY per severe case, and 3.15 QALYs per critical case. These gains translate into monetary values of about $5,300 per mild case, $11,000 per severe case, and $1.8 million per critical case. While these estimates are imprecise, they suggest the magnitude of the effects.

Voting, contagion and the trade-off between public health and political rights: Quasi-experimental evidence from the Italian 2020 polls

Natural disasters raise challenging trade-offs between public health safety and inalienable rights like the active involvement in political choices through voting. We exploit a quasi-experimental setting provided by multiple ballots across regions and municipalities during the Italian 2020 elections to estimate the effect of voters' turnout on the spread of COVID-19. By employing an event-study design with a two-stage Control Function strategy, we find that post-poll new COVID infections increased by an average of 1.1% for each additional percentage point of turnout. Based on these estimates and real political events, we also show through a simulation that in-person voting during a high-infection regime may have a large impact on public health outcomes, more than doubling new infections, deaths and hospitalizations. These findings suggest that policy-makers' responses to natural disasters should be flexible and contingent to the emergency severity, in order to minimize social costs for citizens.

Acceptance and application of a broad population health perspective when evaluating vaccine

The traditional health economic analysis is limited to estimating the impact on the treated patient. As vaccines are usually aimed at preventing infectious diseases, they may be associated with additional values for the non-treated wider population. Although there are valid reasons for treating vaccines differently, and a wide support for a broader perspective in the literature (i.e., beyond the net costs and health gain related to the outcome for the vaccinated individual), it remains unclear to what extent the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies accept and apply a broader perspective.

The purpose of this study is to examine and discuss what type of consequences are relevant for a health economic analysis of vaccines and which consequences are considered by HTA agencies. The study includes a strategic review of literature and HTA decisions in Sweden and other countries, online round-table discussions with stakeholders in Sweden, and a basic estimation of the value of a COVID-19 vaccination in Sweden.

The study shows that, other than herd effect, broader economic consequences for the population are generally not included in the economic evaluation of vaccines. Also, all economic consequences for the treated patient (production loss) and caregiver (health loss) are not always considered. The perspective chosen can have a major impact on the outcome of the analysis. A vaccine for COVID-19 is estimated to provide a value of €744–€956 per dose when using a societal perspective including broader consequences for the population.

Providing a complete and appropriate picture of the value of vaccination is of importance to allocate resources efficiently, to provide incentives for vaccine development, and to show the cost of delaying decisions to implement a new vaccine.

Estimating an anchored utility tariff for the well-being of older people measure (WOOP) for the Netherlands

OBJECTIVE

Health economic evaluations using common health-related quality of life measures may fall short in adequately incorporating all relevant benefits of health and social care interventions targeted at older people. The Well-being of Older People measure (WOOP) is a broader well-being measure that comprises nine well-being domains. The objective of this study was to estimate a utility tariff for the WOOP, to facilitate its application in cost-utility analyses.

METHODS

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) with duration approach was set up and fielded among 2,012 individuals from the Netherlands aged 65 years and above. Matched pairwise choice tasks, colour-coding and level overlap were used to reduce the cognitive burden of the DCE. The choice tasks were created using a Bayesian heterogeneous D-efficient design. The estimation procedure accommodated for nonlinear time preferences via an exponential discounting function.

RESULTS

The estimation results showed that 'physical health', 'mental health', and 'making ends meet' were the most important well-being domains for older people, followed by 'independence' and 'living situation'. Of somewhat lesser importance were domains like 'social life', 'receiving support' and 'feeling useful'. The generated utility tariffs can be used to translate well-being states described with the WOOP to a utility score between -0.616 and 1.

CONCLUSIONS

This study established a tariff for the WOOP, which will facilitate its use in economic evaluations of health and social care interventions targeted at older people, first of all in the Netherlands.

Estimating the range of incremental cost-effectiveness thresholds for healthcare based on willingness to pay and GDP per capita: A systematic review

Background

Decision-making in healthcare policy involves assessing both costs and benefits. In determining the cost-effectiveness (CE) threshold, willingness to pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), GDP per capita, and other factors are important. However, the relationship between WTP/QALY or GDP per capita and the CE threshold is unclear. It is important to clarify the relationship between WTP/QALY and GDP to provide a clear basis for setting the CE threshold.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to compare WTP/QALY and GDP per capita, and to develop a new CE threshold range based on WTP using GDP per capita. The relationship between WTP/QALY and healthy life expectancy (HALE) was also investigated.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and Web of Science from 1980/01/01 to 2020/12/31 using the following selection criteria (latest search: Dec 2021):1, studies that estimated WTP/QALY; 2, the general population was surveyed; 3, the article was in English. From the collected articles, we obtained average values of WTP/QALY for various countries and compared WTP/QALY with GDP per capita. The correlation between WTP/QALY and HALE was also examined.

Results

We identified 20 papers from 17 countries. Comparison of mean WTP/QALY values with GDP per capita showed that most WTP/QALY values were in the range of 0.5–1.5 times GDP per capita, though the median values were less than 0.5 times. Comparison of WTP/QALY with HALE showed a statistically significant positive correlation when Taiwan was excluded as an outlier.

Conclusions

Our results suggest a CE threshold range of 0.5–1.5 times GDP per capita is appropriate but lower than the WHO-recommended range of 1–3 times. The correlation between WTP/QALY and HALE suggests that investment in healthcare is reflected in an increased healthy life expectancy. Since WTP is based on consumer preferences, this range could be used to set a generally acceptable criterion.

Risk-Based Evaluation of Improvements in Drinking Water Treatment Using Cost-Benefit Analysis

Reliable and safe drinking water supply requires adequate risk management. Decision support models can aid decisionmakers to effectively evaluate risk mitigation measures and allocate societal resources. Here, a Swedish case study illustrates how the installation of ultrafiltration membranes can be evaluated by combining risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to assess several contamination sources and estimate the achieved risk reduction from waterborne pathogens using Campylobacter, Norovirus, and Cryptosporidium as reference pathogens. The societal value of the improved water quality was estimated in the cost-benefit analysis by monetising the gained quality adjusted life years and aesthetic water quality improvements. The calculated net present value (mean of 7 MEUR) indicated that the installation of the ultrafiltration membranes was a sound investment from a societal economic perspective. The ultrafiltration membranes reduced the annual probability of infection from 3 × 10−2 to 10−7, well below the U.S. EPA’s acceptable level, as well as improving the aesthetic quality of the drinking water. The results provide a novel example of the importance for water distributors to consider not only health-related metrics when evaluating treatment options or monitoring the drinking water quality, but to also consider the aesthetic quality of the drinking water.

Measuring and valuing broader impacts in public health: Development of a sanitation-related quality of life instrument in Maputo, Mozambique

Two billion people globally lack access to a basic toilet. While improving sanitation reduces infectious disease, toilet users often identify privacy, safety and dignity as more important. However, these outcomes have not been incorporated in sanitation-related economic evaluations. This illustrates the general challenge of outcome measurement and valuation in the economic evaluation of public health interventions, and risks misallocating the US$ 20 billion invested in sanitation in low- and middle-income countries every year. In this study in urban Mozambique, we develop an instrument to measure sanitation-related quality of life (SanQoL). Applying methods from health economics and the capability approach, we develop a descriptive system to measure five attributes identified in prior qualitative research: disgust, health, shame, safety and privacy. Sampling individuals from the intervention and control groups of a sanitation intervention trial, we elicit attribute ranks to value a SanQoL index and assess its validity and reliability. In combination with a measure of time using a sanitation service, SanQoL can quantify incremental benefits in a sanitation-focused cost-effectiveness analysis. After monetary valuation based on willingness to pay, QoL benefits could be summed with health gains in cost-benefit analysis, the most common method in sanitation economic evaluations.

Willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life year: a systematic review with meta-regression

The use of a threshold for cost-utility studies is of major importance to health authorities for making the best allocation decisions for limited resources. Regarding the increasing number of studies worldwide that seek to establish a value for a quality-adjusted life year (QALY), it is necessary to review these studies to provide a global insight into the literature. A systematic review on willingness to pay (WTP) studies focusing on QALY was conducted in eight databases up to June 26, 2020. From a total of 9991 entries, 39 studies were selected, and 511 observations were extracted for the meta-analysis using the ordinary least squares method. The results showed a predicted mean empirical value of $52,619.39 (95% CI 49,952.59; 55,286.19) per QALY in US dollars for 2018. A 1% increase in income led to an increase of 0.6% in the WTP value, while a 1-year increase in respondent age led to a decrease of 3.3% in the WTP value. Sex, education level and employment status had significant effects on WTP. Compared to face-to-face interviews, surveys conducted by the internet or telephone were more likely to have a significantly higher value of WTP per QALY, while out-of-pocket payment tended to lower the value. The prediction made for the province of Quebec, Canada, provided a QALY value of approximately USD $98,450 (CAD $127,985), which is about 2.3 times its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2018. This study is consistent with the extant literature and will be useful for countries that do not yet have a preference-based survey for the value of a QALY.

Impact of Adding Oseltamivir to Usual Care on Quality-Adjusted Life-Years During Influenza-Like Illness

OBJECTIVES

The ALIC⁴E trial has shown that oseltamivir reduces recovery time while increasing the risk of nausea. This secondary analysis of the ALIC⁴E trial aimed to determine the gain in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with adding oseltamivir to usual primary care in patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI).

METHODS

Patients with ILI were recruited during the influenza season (2015-2018) in 15 European countries. Patients were assigned to usual care with or without oseltamivir through stratified randomization (age, severity, comorbidities, and symptom onset). Patients' health status was valued with the EQ-5D and visual analog scale (VAS) for up to 28 days. Average EQ-5D and VAS scores over time were estimated for both treatment groups using one-inflated beta regression in children (<13 years old) and adults (≥13 years old). QALY gain was calculated as the difference between the groups. Sensitivity analysis considered the value set to convert EQ-5D answers to summary scores and the follow-up period.

RESULTS

In adults, oseltamivir gained 0.0006 (95% confidence interval 0.0002-0.0010) QALYs, whereas no statistically significant gain was found in children (14-day follow-up, EQ-5D). QALY gains were statistically significant in patients aged ≥65 years, patients without relevant comorbidities, or patients experiencing symptoms for ≤48 hours. Using VAS and accounting for 28-day follow-up resulted in higher QALY gain.

CONCLUSIONS

QALY gain owing to oseltamivir is limited compared with other diseases, and its clinical meaningfulness remains to be determined. Further analysis is needed to evaluate whether QALY gain and its impact on ILI treatment cost render oseltamivir cost-effective.

Monetary valuation of a Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) for depressive disorders among patients and non-patient respondents: A matched willingness to pay study

Background

As estimated by the World Health Organization, depressive disorders will be the leading contributor to the Global Burden of Disease by 2030. In light of this fact, we designed a study whose aim was to investigate whether the value placed on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for a depressive disorder is higher in patients diagnosed with a major depressive disorder (MDD) compared to non-patients in a matched sample.

Method

We collected data on willingness to pay (WTP) for a total of four health-gain scenarios, which were presented to 18 outpatients diagnosed with a MDD versus 18 matched non-patient respondents with no symptoms of depression. Matching characteristics included age, income, level of education, and type of health insurance. Respondents were presented with different HRQoL scenarios in which they could choose to pay money to regain their initial health state through various treatment options (e.g., inpatient treatment, electroconvulsive therapy). To test whether the probability of stating a positive WTP differed significantly between the two samples, Fisher’s exact test was used. Differences regarding stated WTP between the samples were investigated using the Mann-Whitney U-test.

Results

For most of the health scenarios, the probability of stating a positive WTP did not differ between the two samples. However, patient respondents declared WTP values up to 7.4 times higher than those stated by matched non-patient respondents.

Conclusion

Although the perceived necessity to pay for mental-HRQoL gains did not differ between respondents with MDD and respondents with no symptoms of depression, patient respondents stated higher values.

Value of willingness to pay for a QALY gained in Iran; a modified chained-approach

BACKGROUND

Due to the lack of a constant Willingness to Pay per one additional Quality Adjusted Life Years gained based on the preferences of Iran's general public, the cost-effectiveness of health system interventions is unclear and making it challenging to apply economic evaluation to health resources priority setting.

METHODS

We have measured this cost-effectiveness threshold with the participation of 2854 individuals from five provinces, each representing an income quintile, using a modified Time Trade-Off-based Chained-Approach. In this online-based empirical survey, to extract the health utility value, participants were randomly assigned to one of two green (21121) and yellow (22222) health scenarios designed based on the earlier validated EQ-5D-3L questionnaire.

RESULTS

Across the two health state versions, mean values for one QALY gain (rounded) ranged from $6740-$7400 and $6480-$7120, respectively, for aggregate and trimmed models, which are equivalent to 1.35-1.18 times of the GDP per capita. Log-linear Multivariate OLS regression analysis confirmed that respondents were more likely to pay if their income, disutility, and education level were higher than their counterparts.

CONCLUSIONS

In the health system of Iran, any intervention that is with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, equal to and less than 7402.12 USD, will be considered cost-effective.

Mapping of the acromegaly quality of life questionnaire to ED-5D-5L index score among patients with acromegaly

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a mapping function that links the acromegaly quality of life (AcroQoL) questionnaire to EQ-5D-5L to obtain a preference-based utility value to inform economic evaluation.

METHODS

A nationwide cross-sectional questionnaire survey among patients with acromegaly was conducted online in China during 17 December 2019 to 6 January 2020. The study sample was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. Ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit, beta-based mixture, and adjusted limited dependent variable mixture models were tested for development of the function in the training set. Total and subscale scores and individual items of AcroQoL were included as predictors in the models along with their squared terms and demographic and clinical characteristics, and selected by backward stepwise selection. The root mean square error, mean absolute error, Akaike's information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and adjusted R-square were used to assess goodness of fit and predictive ability of the models.

RESULTS

There were 424 adult patients with acromegaly eligible for this analysis. Average EQ-5D-5L index score and AcroQoL score for them was 0.82 (SD = 0.15) and 44.3 (SD = 22.9), respectively. A total of 60 candidate models were tested. Considering model simplicity and predictive ability in both training and validation set, the best model was the OLS model using scores of physical dimension and its square term as predictors.

CONCLUSION

A validated mapping function was developed in this study for estimating EQ-5D scores using AcroQoL outcomes. Its external validity can be further tested in other population with Acromegaly.

Pure altruism and misjudgement: A bad combination?

Stated preference studies on the value of health risk reductions have found valuations elicited from a private perspective to be both higher and lower compared to valuations elicited from a public perspective. Although relevant, the individual's ability to correctly predict the valuation that other individuals assign to the risk reduction has been insufficiently researched. We aim to verify whether individuals exhibit pure altruistic preferences and if this is the case, whether the presence of pure altruism leads to biased valuation of public risk reductions due to misjudgement about other individuals' preferences. We conduct a large-scale online incentivised experiment as a variant of a public good game in which the individual's final endowment is determined by choices made in the experiment. Results suggest that individuals act as pure altruists and hence try to account for the benefits obtained by others of being insured. The results also suggest that individuals fail to correctly predict other individuals' benefits from the insurance, which leads to non-optimal outcomes and biased valuations.

Willingness to pay vs lottery equivalent to value the impact of alcohol misuse on quality of life

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the impact of alcohol disorders using lottery equivalent (LE) and willingness to pay (WTP) methods and compute the WTP for a QALY (WTP-Q) derived from these values.

METHODS

Two samples of 300 people valued nine states of alcohol misuse. LE and WTP were used in sample 1 and 2, respectively. The ability to discriminate between methods was tested. Regression models were performed to estimate the preference weights of dimensions. Several values of WTP-Q were obtained by combining the estimated values from both samples.

RESULTS

LE and WTP produce the same ranking of states but LE is more sensitive. The estimated impact of the nine states ranges between 0.91 and 0.22 QALYs, and the WTP for avoiding them ranges between €10,444 and €4132. WTP-Q varies between €11,473 and €19,092 when the mean values of the states are used. The WTP-Q tends to decrease with the severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Although LE and WTP provide values for cost-utility and cost-benefit analyses, respectively, LE seems to be preferable for measuring the impact of alcohol disorders. As the lower sensitivity of WTP seems to explain a WTP-Q decrease with severity, more research is needed before recommending the use of different WTP-Q values.

How Effective is Marginal Healthcare Expenditure? New Evidence from England for 2003/04 to 2012/13

BACKGROUND

The endogenous nature of healthcare expenditure means that instruments are often used when estimating the relationship between expenditure and mortality. Previous English studies of this relationship have largely relied on statistical tests to justify their instruments. A recent paper proposed that exogenous components of the resource allocation formula, used to distribute the national healthcare budget to local health authorities, be used as instruments.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the relationship between healthcare expenditure and mortality by disease area for England from 2003/4 to 2012/13 using exogenous elements from the resource allocation formula as instruments for expenditure. To use these disease-specific estimates to calculate the marginal cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for English NHS expenditure. To compare these estimates with those that relied on statistical tests to justify their instruments.

METHODS

The two-stage least squares estimator is used to determine the annual relationship between mortality and healthcare expenditure by disease area across 151 local authorities. These disease-specific outcome elasticities are combined with information about survival and morbidity disease burden in different disease areas to calculate the marginal cost per QALY for English National Health Service (NHS) expenditure.

RESULTS

The results suggest an annual marginal cost per QALY of between £5000 and £10,000. This is similar to that reported previously by studies that used statistical tests to justify their instruments.

CONCLUSION

These cost per QALY estimates are much lower than the threshold currently used by the UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) (£20,000 to £30,000) to assess whether a new pharmaceutical product should be funded by the NHS. Our estimates suggest that guidance issued by NICE is likely to do more harm than good, reducing health outcomes overall for the NHS. There may be legitimate reasons why such harms are deemed appropriate, but it is only through the type of empirical analysis in this paper that the reasons for these 'harms' are likely to be articulated and explicitly justified.

The organ procurement costs of expanding deceased donor organ acceptance criteria: Evidence from a cost function model

A potential solution to the deceased donor organ shortage is to expand donor acceptability criteria. The procurement cost implications of using nonstandard donors is unknown. Using 5 years of US organ procurement organization (OPO) data, we built a cost function model to make cost projections: the total cost was the dependent variable; production outputs, including the number of donors and organs procured, were the independent variables. In the model, procuring one kidney or procuring both kidneys from double/en bloc transplantation from a single-organ donor resulted in a marginal cost of $55 k (95% confidence interval [CI] $28 k, $99 k) per kidney, and procuring only the liver from a single-organ donor results in a marginal cost of $41 k (95% CI $12 k, $69 k) per liver. Procuring two kidneys for two candidates from a donor lowered the marginal cost to $36 k (95% CI $22 k, $66 k) per kidney, and procuring two kidneys and a liver lowers the marginal cost to $24 k (95% CI $17 k, $45 k) per organ. Economies of scale were observed, where high OPO volume was correlated with lower costs. Despite higher cost per organ than for standard donors, kidney transplantation from nonstandard donors remained cost-effective based on contemporary US data.

An Evidence Review of Low-Value Care Recommendations: Inconsistency and Lack of Economic Evidence Considered

BACKGROUND

Low-value care, typically defined as health services that provide little or no benefit, has potential to cause harm, incur unnecessary costs, and waste limited resources. Although evidence-based guidelines identifying low-value care have increased, the guidelines differ in the type of evidence they cite to support recommendations against its routine use.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the evidentiary rationale underlying recommendations against low-value interventions.

DESIGN

We identified 1167 "low-value care" recommendations across five US organizations: the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), the "Choosing Wisely" Initiative, American College of Physicians (ACP), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA), and American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). For each recommendation, we classified the reported evidentiary rationale into five groups: (1) low economic value; (2) no net clinical benefit; (3) little or no absolute clinical benefit; (4) insufficient evidence; (5) no reason mentioned. We further investigated whether any cited or otherwise available cost-effectiveness evidence was consistent with conventional low economic value benchmarks (e.g., exceeding $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year).

RESULTS

Of the identified low-value care recommendations, Choosing Wisely contributed the most (N=582, 50%), followed by ACC/AHA (N=250, 21%). The services deemed "low value" differed substantially across organizations. "No net clinical benefit" (N=428, 37%) and "little or no clinical benefit" (N=296, 25%) were the most commonly reported reasons for classifying an intervention as low value. Consideration of economic value was less frequently reported (N=171, 15%). When relevant cost-effectiveness studies were available, their results were mostly consistent with low-value care recommendations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that evidentiary rationales for low-value care vary substantially, with most recommendations relying on clinical evidence. Broadening the evidence base to incorporate cost-effectiveness evidence can help refine the definition of "low-value" care to reflect whether an intervention's costs are worth the benefits. Developing a consensus grading structure on the strength and evidentiary rationale may help improve de-implementation efforts for low-value care.

Cost-Effectiveness and Cost Utility of Treatment of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: A Systematic Review

Objectives: This systematic review provides an overview of full economic evaluations of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) treatments, evaluates their outcomes, and highlights gaps in the literature. Data Sources: Electronic databases were searched for full economic evaluations of ADHD treatments for children, adolescents, or adults published in English or Dutch. Results: Twenty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Almost all studies that compared medication or psychosocial treatment to no treatment, placebo, or care as usual indicated that medication and psychosocial treatment were cost-effective compared to the control group. Stimulant treatment appeared to be cost-effective for the treatment of ADHD in children and adolescents. Only few studies focus on treatments in adults and psychosocial treatments and the number of studies with long time horizons and without industry funding is limited. Conclusions: Despite the rising interest in cost-effectiveness, this systematic review shows that more cost-effectiveness research of higher quality is warranted to aid in the optimal use of available treatments and resources for individuals with ADHD. Specifically, more studies should focus on treatments in adults and psychosocial treatments, and more studies with long time horizons and without industry funding are warranted. Nevertheless, we can conclude that treating ADHD is generally cost-effective compared to no treatment. PROSPERO: CRD42017060074. Available from: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=60074.

Generating, Presenting, and Interpreting Cost-Effectiveness Results in the Context of Uncertainty: A Tutorial for Deeper Knowledge and Better Practice

This tutorial aims to help make the best available methods for generating and presenting cost-effectiveness results with uncertainty common practice. We believe there is a need for such type of tutorial because some erroneous practices persist (e.g., identifying the cost-effective intervention as the one with the highest probability to be cost-effective), while some of the more advanced methods are hardly used (e.g., the net loss statistic ‘NL’, expected net loss curves and frontier). The tutorial explains with simple examples the pros and cons of using ICER, incremental net benefit and NL to identify the cost-effective intervention, both with and without uncertainty accounted for probabilistically. A flowchart provides practical guidance on when and how to use ICER, incremental net benefit or NL. Different ways to express and present uncertainty in the results are described, including confidence and credible intervals, the probability that a strategy is cost-effective (as usually shown with cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs)) and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). The tutorial clarifies and illustrates why EVPI is the only measure accounting fully for decision uncertainty, and why NL curves and the NL frontier may be preferred over CEACs and other plots for presenting cost-effectiveness results in the context of uncertainty. The easy calculations and a worked-out real-life example will help users to thoroughly understand and correctly interpret key cost-effectiveness results. Examples with mathematical calculations, interpretation, plots and R code are provided.