The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score: A tool to detect low-risk NAFLD in primary care

Diagnostic Accuracy of the LiverRisk Score to Detect Increased Liver Stiffness Among a United States General Population and Subgroups

Background

The LiverRisk score (LRS) has recently been proposed to predict liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. Here, we performed an external validation of this score.

Methods

We used data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, a United States population-based cohort to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the LRS to detect a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥8 and ≥12 kPa. Performance was tested among the entire general population and clinically relevant subgroups.

Results

The cohort comprised 7,025 participants (aged 49 [33-63], 49% male), and 9.7% had an LSM ≥8 and 3.2% had an LSM ≥12 kPa. The area under the receiver characteristic operator curve (AUC) in the overall population was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] :0.71-0.75) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.74-0.81) to detect an LSM ≥8 and ≥ 12 kPa, respectively, significantly outperforming the fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4) but not the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score, steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE), or metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis 5 (MAF-5). Performance was consistent among most subgroups, but AUC levels to detect an LSM ≥8 kPa decreased to <0.70 among participants aged 18-40 or 60-80 years, blacks, and individuals with diabetes or liver steatosis. The LRS categorized 80.5% as very low risk, 17.7% as low risk, and 1.8% as at risk, prevalence of an LSM ≥8 in these groups was 6.3%, 20.8%, and 50.5%, respectively. The sensitivity to detect an LSM ≥8 kPa was 47.3% in the overall population (but dropped to 21.3% for individuals aged 18-40 years) despite applying the lowest cut-off, which should yield the highest sensitivity.

Conclusion

The LRS score is a promising new tool to predict liver fibrosis; however, its diagnostic accuracy attenuates especially among patients aged 18-40 or 60-80 years. The overall sensitivity was only 47.3% at the lowest LRS cut-off. Further studies assessing cost-benefit ratios according to the LRS compared to FIB-4 and other risk scores such as MAF-5 and SAFE are required to determine its usefulness in referral strategies.

Development and validation of a scoring system to predict MASLD patients with significant hepatic fibrosis

To address the need for a simple model to predict ≥ F2 fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients, a study utilized data from 791 biopsy-proven MASLD patients from the NASH Clinical Research Network and Jinan University First Affiliated Hospital. The data were divided into training and internal testing sets through randomized stratified sampling. A multivariable logistic regression model using key categorical variables was developed to identify ≥ F2 fibrosis. External validation was performed using data from the FLINT trial and multiple centers in China. The DA-GAG score, incorporating diabetes, age, GGT, aspartate aminotransferase/ platelet ratio, and globulin/ total protein ratio, demonstrated superior performance in distinguishing ≥ F2 fibrosis with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79 in training and over 0.80 in testing datasets. The DA-GAG score efficiently identifies MASLD patients with ≥ F2 fibrosis, significantly reducing the medical burden.

Prediction of major liver-related events in the population using prognostic models

Liver disease poses a significant global health burden, with steatotic liver disease related to metabolic dysfunction and/or alcohol use being the most prevalent type. Current risk stratification strategies emphasize detecting advanced fibrosis as a surrogate marker for liver-related events (LREs), such as hospitalization, liver cancer, or death. However, fibrosis alone does not adequately predict imminent outcomes, particularly in fast-progressing individuals without advanced fibrosis at evaluation. This underscores the need for models designed specifically to predict LREs, enabling timely interventions. The Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) risk score, the dynamic aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (dAAR), and the Cirrhosis Outcome Risk Estimator (CORE) were explicitly developed to predict LRE risk rather than detect fibrosis. Derived from general population cohorts, these models incorporate either standard liver enzymes (dAAR and CORE) or risk factors (CLivD), enabling broad application in primary care and population-based settings. They directly estimate the risk of future LREs, improving on traditional fibrosis-focused approaches. Conversely, widely used models like the Fibrosis-4 index and newer ones, such as the LiverRisk and LiverPRO scores, were initially developed to detect significant/advanced fibrosis or liver stiffness. While not designed for LRE prediction, they have later been analyzed for this purpose. Integrating fibrosis screening with LRE-focused models like CLivD, dAAR, and CORE can help healthcare systems adopt proactive, preventive care. This approach emphasizes identifying individuals at imminent risk of severe outcomes, potentially ensuring better resource allocation and personalized interventions.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in adults

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the umbrella term that comprises metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver, or isolated hepatic steatosis, through to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis, the progressive necroinflammatory disease form that can progress to fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. MASLD is estimated to affect more than one-third of adults worldwide. MASLD is closely associated with insulin resistance, obesity, gut microbial dysbiosis and genetic risk factors. The obesity epidemic and the growing prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus greatly contribute to the increasing burden of MASLD. The treatment and prevention of major metabolic comorbidities such as type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity will probably slow the growth of MASLD. In 2023, the field decided on a new nomenclature and agreed on a set of research and action priorities, and in 2024, the US FDA approved the first drug, resmetirom, for the treatment of non-cirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis with moderate to advanced fibrosis. Reliable, validated biomarkers that can replace histology for patient selection and primary end points in MASH trials will greatly accelerate the drug development process. Additionally, noninvasive tests that can reliably determine treatment response or predict response to therapy are warranted. Sustained efforts are required to combat the burden of MASLD by tackling metabolic risk factors, improving risk stratification and linkage to care, and increasing access to therapeutic agents and non-pharmaceutical interventions.

The fibrosis investigating navigator in diabetes (FIND): A tool to predict liver fibrosis risk in subjects with diabetes

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes increases the risk of cirrhosis and liver cancer. Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is essential. We aimed to develop a score to aid in the initial assessment of liver fibrosis in the diabetic population.

METHODS

A fibrosis investigating navigator in diabetes (FIND) score was developed and validated in the NHANES dataset (2017-2020). Fibrosis was defined as a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥8.0 kPa. The diagnostic accuracies of FIB-4, NFS, LiverRisk, steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) and metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) were compared. FIND was also externally validated in various liver diseases via biopsy as a reference in an Asian centre between 2016 and 2020. Finally, we examined the prognostic implications of the FIND index utilizing data from the UK Biobank cohort (2006-2010).

RESULTS

The FIND score model yielded an AUROC of 0.781 for the prediction of an LSM ≥8 kPa in the validation set, which was consistently greater than that of other available models (all p < 0.05). In the whole NHANES dataset, the 85% sensitivity cut-off of 0.16 corresponded to a NPV of 91.9%, whereas the 85% specificity cut-off of 0.31 corresponded to a PPV of 50.6%. FIND displayed overall accuracies similar to those of the other models in staging fibrosis stages, with biopsy used as a reference. In the UK Biobank cohort, FIND >0.31 was associated with an increased risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality in the diabetic population in adjusted models (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.62-1.89; HR, 23.59; 95% CI, 13.67-40.69).

CONCLUSIONS

In diabetes patients, the novel FIND score performs well in identifying subjects at risk of liver fibrosis and predicting all-cause and liver-related mortality.

Coexisting steatotic liver disease is not associated with long-term liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Steatotic liver disease (SLD) is an emerging liver disease, whereas chronic viral hepatitis is the renowned cause of chronic liver disease leading to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The impact of coexisting SLD in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on liver-related events (LREs) in the long term is still debated. This study aims to compare all-cause mortality and LRE between CHB patients with and without SLD. This retrospective study included CHB patients who underwent transient elastography between 2014 and 2021 at a tertiary-care hospital. Exclusion criteria were those without controlled attenuated parameter (CAP) results, interquartile range/median of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) > 30%, follow-up time < 6 months, and without hepatitis B virus DNA data during follow-up. SLD was defined as CAP ≥ 248 dB/m, significant liver fibrosis (SF) as LSM ≥ 7 kPa, and cirrhosis as LSM ≥11 kPa or imaging evidence. LRE was defined as the development of HCC and/or cirrhosis complications. Among 532 patients (median follow-up 4.3 years), SLD was present in 161 (30.2%) patients, SF was found in 186 (34.5%) patients, and 104 (19.6%) patients had cirrhosis at baseline. SF was insignificantly more common in SLD patients (40.1% vs 32.4%, P = 0.068). Long-term outcomes showed SF, not SLD, was independently associated with higher LRE development with an adjusted HR of 13.85 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.06-62.76, P < 0.001), while the adjusted HR of SLD was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.16-1.53, P = 0.22). In conclusion, SLD commonly coexists with CHB patients. CHB patients with SLD were more likely to have SF at baseline, albeit not significantly. Long-term HCC and cirrhosis complications development are associated with SF but not SLD status.

Role of noninvasive tests in the prognostication of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

In managing metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, which affects over 30% of the general population, effective noninvasive biomarkers for assessing disease severity, monitoring disease progression, predicting the development of liver-related complications, and assessing treatment response are crucial. The advantage of simple fibrosis scores lies in their widespread accessibility through routinely performed blood tests and extensive validation in different clinical settings. They have shown reasonable accuracy in diagnosing advanced fibrosis and good performance in excluding the majority of patients with a low risk of liver-related complications. Among patients with elevated serum fibrosis scores, a more specific fibrosis and imaging biomarker has proved useful to accurately identify patients at risk of liver-related complications. Among specific fibrosis blood biomarkers, enhanced liver fibrosis is the most widely utilized and has been approved in the United States as a prognostic biomarker. For imaging biomarkers, the availability of vibration-controlled transient elastography has been largely improved over the past years, enabling the use of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) for accurate assessment of significant and advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis. Combining LSM with other routinely available blood tests enhances the ability to diagnose at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis and predict liver-related complications, some reaching an accuracy comparable to that of liver biopsy. Magnetic resonance imaging-based modalities provide the most accurate quantification of liver fibrosis, though the current utilization is limited to research settings. Expanding their future use in clinical practice depends on factors such as cost and facility availability.

Optimal Population Screening Strategies for Liver Fibrosis Associated With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is an important public health threat, potentially leading to chronic liver disease and liver cancer. Current guidelines recommend using the Fibrosis-4 score for initial identification of subjects at risk of future complications. We formulate a novel population screening strategy based on the Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score, recently developed for MASLD risk stratification in primary care.

METHODS

We interrogated the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, 2017-20, in which a sample of subjects representative of US civilian population underwent vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). The current guideline and a new, SAFE-based proposal were applied to these data to project the number of subjects to be diagnosed with liver fibrosis gauged by liver stiffness measurement (LSM), including significant (LSM ≥8 kPa) and advanced (LSM ≥12 kPa) fibrosis, as well as the number of VCTEs to be performed.

RESULTS

In the survey data, 2,691 subjects, projecting to 75.8 million US adults, were found to have MASLD, of whom 11% had LSM 8-12 kPa and 6% LSM ≥12 kPa. When the current guideline was applied, 18.1 million VCTEs would be needed to diagnose 3.5 million subjects with LSM ≥8 kPa and 1.7 million subjects with LSM ≥12 kPa. In comparison, a new approach based on the SAFE score would detect 4.9 million with LSM ≥8 kPa and 2.5 million subjects with LSM ≥12 kPa (37% and 45% improvement over the current guideline, respectively), while requiring 5.0 million fewer VCTEs (28% reduction).

DISCUSSION

The proposed population risk stratification approach using the SAFE score is simpler and substantially more effective, yielding more subjects with liver fibrosis while requiring less resources compared with the currently recommended algorithm.

The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator score is a useful indicator of recurrence and survival after initial curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Aims

Liver fibrosis predisposes patients to liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma. Various markers, which can be calculated easily from serum parameters, have been reported to predict liver fibrosis accurately. This study investigated the prognostic factors, including blood-based markers for liver fibrosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma following initial curative hepatectomy.

Methods

This retrospective study included 407 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent initial curative hepatectomy between April 2010 and December 2017. We investigated prognosis-associated variables in these patients.

Results

Among the blood-based markers for liver fibrosis examined in this study, the steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator score demonstrated the best predictive capabilities. This score was revealed as a poor prognostic factor for both overall survival and recurrence-free survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma following initial curative hepatectomy. A high steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator score was independently associated with poor overall survival and recurrence-free survival. After propensity score-matching to minimize bias between high- and low-steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator score groups, the high steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator score remained associated with poor overall survival and recurrence-free survival.

Conclusions

The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator score is an independent predictor of long-term prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma following initial curative hepatectomy.

Validation of serum non-invasive tests of liver fibrosis as prognostic markers of clinical outcomes in people with fatty liver disease in Australia

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The validity of non-invasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis for the prediction of liver and mortality outcomes in an Australian cohort is unknown. We aimed to verify the utility of available NITs to predict overall and cause-specific mortality and major adverse liver outcome (MALO).

METHODS

This was an analysis from the Crossroads 1 clinic sub-study of a randomly sampled adult cohort from regional Australia between 2001 and 2003. Baseline variables included demographic details, anthropometry, health and lifestyle data, and laboratory tests. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic-(dysfunction) associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) were defined by fatty liver index ≥ 60 and other accepted criteria. Outcomes were defined by the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision codes for linked hospitalization and death registry data. Available serum-based NITs were analyzed as predictors of overall, cardiovascular disease-related, and cancer-related mortality and MALO in those with fatty liver disease (FLD).

RESULTS

In total, 1324 and 1444 participants were included for NAFLD and MAFLD analysis (prevalence 35.4% and 40.7%, respectively). There were 298 deaths (89 cardiovascular disease-related and 98 cancer-related) and 24 MALO over a median 19.7 years of follow-up time. In both forms of FLD, fibrosis-4 index, Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator score, and Forns fibrosis score consistently had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for overall and cause-specific mortality, with AUROC > 0.70 for each outcome. However, all had poor discriminatory ability for determining MALO in each FLD.

CONCLUSIONS

Several liver fibrosis NITs perform similarly reasonably well in predicting the risk of mortality outcomes in those with FLD but are poorly discriminatory for MALO prediction.

Diagnostic performance of FibroTouch® in assessing hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: An Asian experience

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

FibroTouch® has shown efficacy in staging hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic viral hepatitis B, but its performance in assessing liver steatosis and fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients remains understudied. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of FibroTouch® in assessing steatosis and fibrosis in the MASLD population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Liver stiffness measurements and steatosis were assessed using FibroTouch® and FibroScan®, with FibroScan® as the reference standard. Pearson's correlation test evaluated correlations, and kappa statistics determined agreement between the two methods. Optimal cut-off values of FibroTouch® for predicting hepatic steatosis and fibrosis stages were determined through ROC curve analysis with the Youden index method.

RESULTS

Strong correlations were observed between FibroTouch® UAP and FibroScan® CAP (rho=0.74) and LSM values (rho=0.87) (p < 0.001 for both) in a total of 380 patients. The mean CAP value for the entire cohort was 285 ± 51 dB/m, and the median LSM for the cohort was 5 .3kPa. The optimal FibroTouch® UAP cutoffs were 229 dB/m for S0 vs. S1, 267 dB/m for S1 vs. S2, and 294 dB/m for S2 vs. S3. For FibroTouch® LSM, the optimal cutoffs were 6.0 kPa for F0-F1 vs. F2, 7.9 kPa for F2 vs. F3, and 10.6 kPa for F3 vs. F4. Moreover, FibroTouch® effectively assessed hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in patients with different BMIs.

CONCLUSIONS

FibroTouch® proved valuable in assessing hepatic steatosis and liver fibrosis staging in MASLD patients, enhancing its applicability in various clinical settings as a suitable and convenient option for MASLD patients.

Associations of serum folate and vitamin B12 levels with all-cause mortality among patients with metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease: a prospective cohort study

Introduction

Serum folate and vitamin B12 levels correlate with the prevalence of fatty liver disease, but it is not clear how they affect mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association of serum folate and vitamin B12 concentrations with all-cause mortality in individuals with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

Methods

MASLD subjects were from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) in the United States, and mortality follow-up data were obtained by linkage to death records from the National Death Index. Multivariable Cox proportional regression models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) models were used to evaluate the association of serum folate/vitamin B12 with all-cause mortality in the MASLD population.

Results

3,636 and 2,125 MASLD individuals were included in the analyses related to serum folate and vitamin B12, respectively. During a follow-up period of more than 20 years, the RCS models demonstrated significant nonlinear associations of both serum folate (P <0.001) and vitamin B12 (P =0.016) with all-cause mortality in MASLD. When their serum concentrations were below the median level, the risk of all-cause mortality decreased with increasing concentration, reaching a lowest risk around the median level, and then leveled off. In the multivariable cox regression model, for vitamin B12, the risk of all-cause mortality was reduced by 42% and 28% in the third and fourth quartile groups, respectively, compared with the lowest quartile group (hazard ratio [HR]=0.58, 95% CI: 0.39-0.86, P =0.008; HR =0.72, 95% CI: 0.54-0.96, P=0.026, respectively). For folate, the risk of all-cause mortality was reduced by 28% in the third quartile compared with the lowest quartile (HR =0.72, 95% CI: 0.57-0.91, P =0.005).

Conclusion

This longitudinal cohort study suggests that low serum folate and vitamin B12 levels in patients with MASLD are significantly associated with an elevated risk of all-cause mortality.

Sequential SAFE Score and Transient Elastography for Detecting Significant Fibrosis in Asian Patients with MASLD

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly known as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD),1 represents a global public health issue. Fibrosis stage is the most important risk for long-term undesirable outcomes.2,3 From recent meta-analyses, all-cause and liver-related mortalities significantly increased from fibrosis stage 2 (significant fibrosis; F≥2) onward.4,5 In primary care setting, those with F≥2 should be referred to hepatologists; therefore, noninvasive tests to stratify risk of patients with MASLD are crucial. Steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) was recently developed to predict F≥2.6 SAFE has been externally validated and outperformed fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS).7,8 Recently, international guidelines proposed sequential diagnostic steps, initially using FIB-4 and then transient elastography (TE) in non-low-risk patients.9,10 However, the guidelines focused on identifying advanced fibrosis (F≥3), which might be too late. This study aimed to compare the performance among SAFE, FIB-4, and NFS, and evaluate SAFE-TE sequential approach. We hypothesized that by initially using SAFE, the proportion of patients misclassified as low risk despite already having F≥2 could be diminished.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a key factor in hepatocellular carcinoma therapy response

The conceptual evolution of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) to what, since 2023, is called metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) not only represents a change in the classification and definition of the disease but also reflects a broader understanding of this heterogeneous condition, which still with many aspects to refine. Although the definition of NAFLD can be interchanged to a high percentage with the new MASLD concept in different aspects, MASLD has been proposed as a relevant factor that influences the response to new immunotherapeutic treatments in the management of MASLD-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), compared to HCC of other etiologies. This indicates that the etiology of HCC plays a relevant role in the prognosis, highlighting the urgency of evaluating treatment regimens for this subgroup of patients in upcoming clinical trials. A better understanding of the pathophysiology of MASLD generates strategies that not only aid in its management but also provide strategies to directly intervene in the carcinogenesis of HCC.

Non-invasive testing in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously referred to as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is a leading cause of chronic liver disease, affecting up to 30% of the global population. MASLD is strongly associated with metabolic risk factors such as obesity and type 2 diabetes, and can progress to advanced stages including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Early diagnosis and accurate staging of fibrosis are critical in managing the disease and preventing complications. While liver biopsy has long been considered the gold standard for assessing fibrosis, it is invasive and carries associated risks. In response, non-invasive tests (NITs) have emerged as essential alternatives for the diagnosis and monitoring of MASLD. Key methods include blood-based biomarkers such as the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), and Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) test, as well as imaging modalities like vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and magnetic resonance elastography (MRE). These tests provide safer, more accessible methods for identifying liver fibrosis and guiding clinical management. They are integral in assessing disease severity, guiding treatment decisions, and monitoring disease progression, particularly in light of emerging therapies. NITs have become increasingly recommended by clinical guidelines as they reduce the need for invasive procedures like liver biopsy, improving patient care and outcomes. In conclusion, non-invasive testing plays a crucial role in the effective management of MASLD, offering reliable alternatives for diagnosis and monitoring while minimizing risks associated with traditional invasive methods.

Benchmarking clinical risk prediction algorithms with ensemble machine learning for the noninvasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in NAFLD

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Ensemble machine-learning methods, like the superlearner, combine multiple models into a single one to enhance predictive accuracy. Here we explore the potential of the superlearner as a benchmarking tool for clinical risk prediction, illustrating the approach to identifying significant liver fibrosis among patients with NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We used 23 demographic/clinical variables to train superlearner(s) on data from the NASH-clinical research network observational study (n = 648) and validated models with data from the FLINT trial (n = 270) and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) participants with NAFLD (n = 1244). Comparing the superlearner's performance to existing models (Fibrosis-4 [FIB-4], NAFLD fibrosis score, Forns, AST to Platelet Ratio Index [APRI], BARD, and Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator [SAFE]), it exhibited strong discriminative ability in the FLINT and NHANES validation sets, with AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73-0.84) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Notably, the SAFE score performed similarly to the superlearner, both of which outperformed FIB-4, APRI, Forns, and BARD scores in the validation data sets. Surprisingly, the superlearner derived from 12 base models matched the performance of one with 90 base models. Overall, the superlearner, being the "best-in-class" machine-learning predictor, excelled in detecting fibrotic NASH, and this approach can be used to benchmark the performance of conventional clinical risk prediction models.

Revisiting the steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator score in young Asian subjects with steatotic liver disease and consideration for population variability

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score has been developed to distinguish clinically significant fibrosis in patients with steatotic liver disease (SLD). However, validation of its performance in Asian subjects is limited. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the SAFE score in Asian subjects with biopsy-proven SLD and in different subgroups according to age, sex, and body mass index.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 6383 living liver donors who underwent a liver biopsy between 2005 and 2023. Of these, 1551 subjects with biopsy-proven SLD were included. The performance of the SAFE score was evaluated using areas under the curve and compared with those of the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4).

RESULTS

The prevalence of clinically significant fibrosis in the cohort was 2.2%. The proportion of subjects with a "low-risk" SAFE score was the highest (91.0%), followed by those with "intermediate-risk" (7.8%) and "high-risk" (1.2%) scores. The prevalence of fibrosis in subjects with low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk scores was 1.6%, 6.6%, and 21.1%, respectively. The SAFE outperformed FIB-4 and NFS (area under the curve: 0.70 vs 0.64 for both NFS and FIB-4). However, it showed low diagnostic accuracy and sensitivity (27%) at the low cutoff (SAFE < 0) in subjects aged 30-39 years (fibrosis: 1.2%), despite having a high negative predictive value (0.99).

CONCLUSION

While the SAFE score demonstrates superior performance compared with other noninvasive tests in Asian subjects with SLD, its performance varies across age groups. In younger subjects, particularly, its performance may be more limited.

Comparison of blood-based liver fibrosis scores in the Mount Sinai Health System, MASLD Registry, and NHANES 2017-2020 study

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis is a critical public health concern, necessitating early detection to prevent progression. This study evaluates the recently developed LiverRisk score and steatosis-associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score against established indices for prognostication and/or fibrosis prediction in 4diverse cohorts, including participants with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

METHODS

We used data from the Mount Sinai Data Warehouse (32,828 participants without liver disease diagnoses), the Mount Sinai MASLD/MASH Longitudinal Registry (422 participants with MASLD), and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020 (4133 participants representing the general population) to compare LiverRisk score, FIB-4 index, APRI, and SAFE score. Analyses included Cox proportional hazards regressions, Kaplan-Meier estimates, and classification metrics to evaluate performance in prognostication and fibrosis prediction.

RESULTS

In Mount Sinai Data Warehouse, LiverRisk score was significantly associated with future liver-related outcomes but did not significantly outperform FIB-4 or APRI for predicting any of the outcomes. In the general population, LiverRisk score and SAFE score outperformed FIB-4 and APRI in identifying fibrosis, but LiverRisk score underperformed among participants who were non-White or had type 2 diabetes. Among participants with MASLD, SAFE score outperformed FIB-4 and APRI in 1 of 2 cohorts, but there were generally few significant performance differences between all 4 scores.

CONCLUSIONS

LiverRisk score does not consistently outperform existing predictors in diverse populations, and further validation is needed before adoption in settings with significant differences from the original derivation cohorts. It remains necessary to replicate the ability of these scores to predict liver-specific mortality, as well as to develop diagnostic tools for liver fibrosis that are accessible and substantially better than current scores, especially among patients with MASLD and other chronic liver conditions.

The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) outperformed the FIB-4 score in screening the population for liver disease

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Assessing fibrosis risk noninvasively is essential. The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score shows promise but needs validation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a three-part study. In part 1, we compared the SAFE score with the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohort (2017-2020), using transient elastography (TE) as screening reference. In part 2, we examined patients who underwent liver biopsies at an Asian center between 2018 and 2020 to assess these models in various liver diseases. In part 3, the SAFE score was applied to adults in the NHANES cohort (1999-2016) to assess the correlation with mortality.

RESULTS

In part 1, we studied 6,677 patients, comprising 595 screening positive (TE ≥8 kPa). SAFE (cutoff 100) displayed a lower proportion of false positives (10.4 %) than FIB-4 (cutoff 1.3) and NFS (cutoff -1.455) (22.1 % and 43.6 %) while retaining a low proportion of false negatives (5.5 %). In part 2, SAFE outperformed FIB-4 (P = 0.04) and NFS (P = 0.04) in staging significant fibrosis (≥S2) in NAFLD and had similar accuracies in other etiologies. In part 3, the FIB-4, NFS, and SAFE score were associated with all-cause mortality in the general population, with c-statistics of 0.738, 0.736, and 0.759, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The SAFE score reduced futile referrals more effectively than FIB-4 without raising the missed TE ≥ 8 kPa rate. It correlated with all-cause mortality in the general population and excelled in staging significant fibrosis in NAFLD.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

An Alternative Non-Invasive Screening Model for Liver Fibrosis among US Adults at Risk of MASLD

Background and Aims: Screening for liver fibrosis presents a clinical challenge. This study aimed to explore a useful alternative method for assessing fibrosis risk among US adults at risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Methods: A liver stiffness score (LSS) model was proposed and tested using data from 3976 participants at possible risk of MASLD, obtained from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Results: The LSS model was developed using liver stiffness measurements, blood biochemistry, and body measurement data from 2414 NHANES participants at risk of MASLD, sampled between 2017 and 2020: LSS = exp(0.007035 × bodyweightkg - 0.1061 × raceblack1,0 + 0.183221 × diabetes1,0 + 0.008539 × ASTIU/L - 0.0018 × plateletcount1000cell/UL - 0.21011 × albuming/dL + 2.259087). The probability (P) of having fibrosis F3 + F4 is calculated as follows: P = 0.0091 × LSS2 - 0.0791 × LSS + 0.1933. The developed LSS model was tested on 1562 at-risk participants from the 2017-2018 cycle. The results showed that the LSS model achieved AUROC values of 0.79 and 0.78 for diagnosing cirrhosis (F4) and advanced fibrosis (F3 + F4) in the US population, respectively. It outperformed existing models such as NFS, FIB-4, SAFE, and FIB-3. For screening F3 + F4 fibrosis, the LSS model's top decile outperformed the NFS and FIB-4 models by 37.7% and 42.6%, respectively. Additionally, it showed superior performance compared to the waist circumference classification method by 29.5%. Conclusions: derived from an ethnically diverse population dataset, the LSS screening model, along with its probability equation, may offer clinicians a valuable alternative method for assessing the risk of liver fibrosis in the at-risk adult population.

Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fibrosis 5 (MAF-5) Score Predicts Liver Fibrosis Risk and Outcome in the General Population With Metabolic Dysfunction

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There is an unmet need for noninvasive tests to improve case-finding and aid primary care professionals in referring patients at high risk of liver disease.

METHODS

A metabolic dysfunction-associated fibrosis (MAF-5) score was developed and externally validated in a total of 21,797 individuals with metabolic dysfunction in population-based (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, and Rotterdam Study) and hospital-based (from Antwerp and Bogota) cohorts. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was compared with FIB-4, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), LiverRisk score and steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE). MAF-5 was externally validated with liver stiffness measurement ≥8.0 kPa, with shear-wave elastography ≥7.5 kPa, and biopsy-proven steatotic liver disease according to Metavir and Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network scores, and was tested for prognostic performance (all-cause mortality).

RESULTS

The MAF-5 score comprised waist circumference, body mass index (calculated as kg / m2), diabetes, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets. With this score, 60.9% was predicted at low, 14.1% at intermediate, and 24.9% at high risk of fibrosis. The observed prevalence was 3.3%, 7.9%, and 28.1%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve of MAF-5 (0.81) was significantly higher than FIB-4 (0.61), and outperformed the FIB-4 among young people (negative predictive value [NPV], 99%; area under the curve [AUC], 0.86 vs NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.51) and older adults (NPV, 94%; AUC, 0.75 vs NPV, 88%; AUC, 0.55). MAF-5 showed excellent performance to detect liver stiffness measurement ≥12 kPa (AUC, 0.86 training; AUC, 0.85 validation) and good performance in detecting liver stiffness and biopsy-proven liver fibrosis among the external validation cohorts. MAF-5 score >1 was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in (un)adjusted models (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.47-1.73).

CONCLUSIONS

The MAF-5 score is a validated, age-independent, inexpensive referral tool to identify individuals at high risk of liver fibrosis and all-cause mortality in primary care populations, using simple variables.

Degree of Discordance Between FIB-4 and Transient Elastography: An Application of Current Guidelines on General Population Cohort

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In the American Gastroenterological Association/American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AGA/AASLD) Clinical Care Pathway, Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) is used to stratify patients at risk for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) as low-, indeterminate-, or high-risk for developing advanced liver fibrosis. We assessed the performance of FIB-4 in a general population.

METHODS

Using the 2017 to 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys dataset, we selected subjects ≥18 years who had FibroScan data. We followed AGA/AASLD guidelines to identify subjects with characteristics that place them at risk for MASLD-associated liver fibrosis. Other causes of liver disease were excluded. Our final cohort had 3741 subjects. We then categorized these subjects based on recommended FIB-4 cutoffs. FibroScan liver stiffness measurement (LSM) served as the outcome measurement.

RESULTS

Among the 2776 subjects (74.2%) classified as low risk by FIB-4, 277 subjects (10%) were not classified at low risk by LSM, and 75 subjects (2.7%) were classified as high risk by LSM. Among the 86 subjects classified as high risk by FIB-4, 68 subjects (79.1%) were not at high risk by LSM, and 54 subjects (62.8%) were at low risk by LSM. Subjects misclassified by FIB-4 as low risk were older; had a higher body mass index, waist circumference, glycohemoglobin A1c level, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, diastolic blood pressure, controlled attenuation parameter score, white blood cell count, alkaline phosphatase, and fasting glucose level; but had lower high-density lipoprotein, and albumin level (all P < .05). Misclassified subjects were also more likely to have prediabetes/diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Using FIB-4 in the AGA/AASLD guidelines to risk-stratify subjects at risk for MASLD-associated fibrosis results in many subjects being misclassified into the low- and high-risk categories. Therefore, it may be worthwhile considering caution in interpretation and/or alternative strategies.

EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD)

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), is defined as steatotic liver disease (SLD) in the presence of one or more cardiometabolic risk factor(s) and the absence of harmful alcohol intake. The spectrum of MASLD includes steatosis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH, previously NASH), fibrosis, cirrhosis and MASH-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This joint EASL-EASD-EASO guideline provides an update on definitions, prevention, screening, diagnosis and treatment for MASLD. Case-finding strategies for MASLD with liver fibrosis, using non-invasive tests, should be applied in individuals with cardiometabolic risk factors, abnormal liver enzymes, and/or radiological signs of hepatic steatosis, particularly in the presence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) or obesity with additional metabolic risk factor(s). A stepwise approach using blood-based scores (such as FIB-4) and, sequentially, imaging techniques (such as transient elastography) is suitable to rule-out/in advanced fibrosis, which is predictive of liver-related outcomes. In adults with MASLD, lifestyle modification - including weight loss, dietary changes, physical exercise and discouraging alcohol consumption - as well as optimal management of comorbidities - including use of incretin-based therapies (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide) for T2D or obesity, if indicated - is advised. Bariatric surgery is also an option in individuals with MASLD and obesity. If locally approved and dependent on the label, adults with non-cirrhotic MASH and significant liver fibrosis (stage ≥2) should be considered for a MASH-targeted treatment with resmetirom, which demonstrated histological effectiveness on steatohepatitis and fibrosis with an acceptable safety and tolerability profile. No MASH-targeted pharmacotherapy can currently be recommended for the cirrhotic stage. Management of MASH-related cirrhosis includes adaptations of metabolic drugs, nutritional counselling, surveillance for portal hypertension and HCC, as well as liver transplantation in decompensated cirrhosis.

Noninvasive tests for liver fibrosis in 2024: are there different scales for different diseases?

Liver fibrosis is the common pathway from various chronic liver diseases and its progression leads to cirrhosis which carries a significant risk for the development of portal hypertension-related complications and hepatocellular carcinoma. It is crucial to identify and halt the worsening of liver fibrosis given its important prognostic implication. Liver biopsy is the gold standard for assessing the degree of liver fibrosis but is limited due to its invasiveness and impracticality for serial monitoring. Many noninvasive tests have been developed over the years trying to assess liver fibrosis in a practical and accurate way. The tests are mainly laboratory- or imaging-based, or in combination. Laboratory-based tests can be derived from simply routine blood tests to patented laboratory parameters. Imaging modalities include ultrasound and magnetic resonance elastography, in which vibration-controlled transient elastography is the most widely validated and adopted whereas magnetic resonance elastography has been proven the most accurate liver fibrosis assessment tool. Nonetheless, noninvasive tests do not always apply to all liver diseases, nor does a common cut-off value of a test mean the same degree of liver fibrosis in different scenarios. In this review, we discuss the diagnostic and prognostic performance, as well as the confounders and limitations, of different noninvasive tests on liver fibrosis assessment in various liver diseases.

The Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score for assessing significant liver fibrosis in patients with psoriasis

BACKGROUND

There is an urgent need for noninvasive tests to identify patients with psoriasis at risk of significant liver fibrosis.

OBJECTIVES

To externally validate the ability of the Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score to detect significant liver fibrosis in patients with psoriasis using transient elastography (TE) as a reference.

METHODS

We analysed data from 75 patients with psoriasis, including TE, SAFE score, Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score (NFS). Significant liver fibrosis was defined as TE values ≥ 7.1 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

Fifteen patients (20%) exhibited significant liver fibrosis. The AUROCs for the SAFE and FIB-4 scores were 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.97] and 0.62 (95% CI 0.45-0.79), respectively. The SAFE score outperformed the FIB-4 Index (P = 0.01) but was comparable with the NFS (P = 0.05) in predicting significant fibrosis. Using thresholds of < 0, 0 to < 100 and ≥ 100, the SAFE score categorized 36, 24 and 15 patients into low, intermediate and high-risk groups for significant fibrosis, respectively. The negative predictive value for excluding significant fibrosis with a SAFE score of < 0 was 94.4%, and the positive predictive value for diagnosing significant fibrosis with a SAFE score of > 100 was 53.3%. The duration of psoriasis, joint involvement and methotrexate treatment did not affect the diagnostic ability of the SAFE score whereas age of the patient did.

CONCLUSIONS

The SAFE score demonstrated good accuracy in assessing clinically significant fibrosis among patients with psoriasis. This score should prove valuable for risk stratification and patient management in dermatology practice.

Global epidemiology of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) shares common pathophysiological mechanisms with type 2 diabetes, making them significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. The present study aimed to assess the epidemiological feature of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD at global levels.

METHODS

Published studies were searched for terms that included type 2 diabetes, and NAFLD or MAFLD using PubMed, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Web of Science databases from their inception to December 2022. The pooled global and regional prevalence and incidence density of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD were evaluated using random-effects meta-analysis. Potential sources of heterogeneity were investigated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression.

RESULTS

A total of 395 studies (6,878,568 participants with NAFLD; 1,172,637 participants with MAFLD) from 40 countries or areas were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of type 2 diabetes among NAFLD or MAFLD patients was 28.3% (95% confidence interval 25.2-31.6%) and 26.2% (23.9-28.6%) globally. The incidence density of type 2 diabetes in NAFLD or MAFLD patients was 24.6 per 1000-person year (20.7 to 29.2) and 26.9 per 1000-person year (7.3 to 44.4), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study describes the global prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD. The study findings serve as a valuable resource to assess the global clinical and economic impact of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD.

Poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP)-targeted PET imaging in non-oncology application: a pilot study in preclinical models of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

Poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) activation often indicates a disruptive signal to lipid metabolism, the physiological alteration of which may be implicated in the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate the capability of [68Ga]DOTA-PARPi PET to detect hepatic PARP expression in a non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) mouse model. In this study, male C57BL/6 mice were subjected to a choline-deficient, L-amino acid-defined, high-fat diet (CDAHFD) for a 12-week period to establish preclinical NASH models. [68Ga]DOTA-PARPi PET imaging of the liver was conducted at the 12-week mark after CDAHFD feeding. Comprehensive histopathological analysis, covering hepatic steatosis, inflammation, fibrosis, along with blood biochemistry, was performed in both NASH models and control groups. Despite the induction of severe inflammation, steatosis and fibrosis in the liver of mice with the CDAHFD-NASH model, PET imaging of NASH with [68Ga]-DOTA-PARPi did not reveal a significantly higher uptake in NASH models compared to the control. This underscores the necessity for further development of new chelator-based PARP1 tracers with high binding affinity to enable the visualization of PARP1 changes in NASH pathology.

Liver stiffness as a cornerstone in heart disease risk assessment

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) typically presents with hepatic fibrosis in advanced disease, resulting in increased liver stiffness. A subset of patients further develops liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Cardiovascular disease is a common comorbidity in patients with MASLD and its prevalence is increasing in parallel. Recent evidence suggests that especially liver stiffness, whether or not existing against a background of MASLD, is associated with heart diseases. We conducted a narrative review on the role of liver stiffness in the prediction of highly prevalent heart diseases including heart failure, cardiac arrhythmias (in particular atrial fibrillation), coronary heart disease, and aortic valve sclerosis. Research papers were retrieved from major scientific databases (PubMed, Web of Science) until September 2023 using 'liver stiffness' and 'liver fibrosis' as keywords along with the latter cardiac conditions. Increased liver stiffness, determined by vibration-controlled transient elastography or hepatic fibrosis as predicted by biomarker panels, are associated with a variety of cardiovascular diseases, including heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and coronary heart disease. Elevated liver stiffness in patients with metabolic liver disease should lead to considerations of cardiac workup including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide/B-type natriuretic peptide determination, electrocardiography, and coronary computed tomography angiography. In addition, patients with MASLD would benefit from heart disease case-finding strategies in which liver stiffness measurements can play a key role. In conclusion, increased liver stiffness should be a trigger to consider a cardiac workup in metabolically compromised patients.

Algorithms for Early Detection of Silent Liver Fibrosis in the Primary Care Setting

More than one-third of the adult world population has steatotic liver disease (SLD), with a few percent of individuals developing cirrhosis after decades of silent liver fibrosis accumulation. Lack of systematic early detection causes most patients to be diagnosed late, after decompensation, when treatment has limited effect and survival is poor. Unfortunately, no isolated screening test in primary care can sufficiently predict advanced fibrosis from SLD. Recent efforts, therefore, combine several parameters into screening algorithms, to increase diagnostic accuracy. Besides patient selection, for example, by specific characteristics, algorithms include nonpatented or patented blood tests and liver stiffness measurements using elastography-based techniques. Algorithms can be composed as a set of sequential tests, as recommended by most guidelines on primary care pathways. Future use of algorithms that are easy to interpret, cheap, and semiautomatic will improve the management of patients with SLD, to the benefit of global health care systems.

Diagnostic and prognostic performance of the SAFE score in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score was developed to detect clinically significant liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD in the United States. We compare the performance of the SAFE score and other non-invasive tests to diagnose liver fibrosis and to correlate the scores with liver-related outcomes in patients with NAFLD in Hong Kong.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study involving two data sets. The first cohort was a biopsy cohort of NAFLD patients (n = 279), and the second was a territory-wide cohort of NAFLD patients (n = 4603) retrieved from a territory-wide electronic healthcare database in Hong Kong.

RESULTS

In detecting significant fibrosis, liver stiffness measured by transient elastography had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (.844), followed by SAFE score (.773). SAFE score had the highest AUROC among blood-based algorithms (.773 vs. .746 for FIB-4, .697 for APRI). Based on cut-off values of SAFE score (0 and 100 points), 854 (18.6%), 1596 (34.6%) and 2153 (46.8%) were in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively, in the territory-wide cohort. Six (.7%), 15 (.9%) and 59 (2.7%) developed liver-related events in those three groups respectively. Among patients who had liver-related events at 5 years, using the high cut-off, SAFE score could predict 84.9% of patients accurately, compared to 40.9% for FIB-4 and 27.2% for APRI.

CONCLUSION

The SAFE score performed well and better than other blood-based markers in diagnosing significant fibrosis and predicting liver-related events in Asian patients with NAFLD.

Clinical trials reimagined

Clinical trials have been a central driver of change and have provided the evidence base necessary to advance new therapies for liver diseases. This review provides a perspective on the status of trials in hepatology and a vantage point into the emerging capabilities and external forces that will shape the conduct of clinical trials in the future. The adaptations to clinical trial operations in response to the disruptions by the COVID-19 pandemic and opportunities for innovation in hepatology trials are emphasized. Future trials in hepatology will be driven by unmet therapeutic needs and fueled by technological advances incorporating digital capabilities with expanded participant-derived data collection, computing, and analytics. Their design will embrace innovative trial designs adapted to these advances and that emphasize broader and more inclusive participant engagement. Their conduct will be further shaped by evolving regulatory needs and the emergence of new stakeholders in the clinical trials ecosystem. The evolution of clinical trials will offer unique opportunities to advance new therapeutics that will ultimately improve the lives of patients with liver diseases.

Benchmarking clinical risk prediction algorithms with ensemble machine learning: An illustration of the superlearner algorithm for the non-invasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background and Aims

Ensemble machine learning (ML) methods can combine many individual models into a single 'super' model using an optimal weighted combination. Here we demonstrate how an underutilized ensemble model, the superlearner, can be used as a benchmark for model performance in clinical risk prediction. We illustrate this by implementing a superlearner to predict liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

Methods

We trained a superlearner based on 23 demographic and clinical variables, with the goal of predicting stage 2 or higher liver fibrosis. The superlearner was trained on data from the Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis - clinical research network observational study (NASH-CRN, n=648), and validated using data from participants in a randomized trial for NASH ('FLINT' trial, n=270) and data from examinees with NAFLD who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, n=1244). We compared the performance of the superlearner with existing models, including FIB-4, NFS, Forns, APRI, BARD and SAFE.

Results

In the FLINT and NHANES validation sets, the superlearner (derived from 12 base models) discriminates patients with significant fibrosis from those without well, with AUCs of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73-0.84) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79). Among the existing scores considered, the SAFE score performed similarly to the superlearner, and the superlearner and SAFE scores outperformed FIB-4, APRI, Forns, and BARD scores in the validation datasets. A superlearner model derived from 12 base models performed as well as one derived from 90 base models.

Conclusions

The superlearner, thought of as the "best-in-class" ML prediction, performed better than most existing models commonly used in practice in detecting fibrotic NASH. The superlearner can be used to benchmark the performance of conventional clinical risk prediction models.

Serum IL-27 levels increase in subjects with hypothyroidism and are negatively correlated with the occurrence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Background

The level of serum interleukin-27 (IL-27) was significantly decreased in the obesity group. After injection of IL-27, obese mice showed significant weight loss,reduced fat accumulation, improved insulin resistance and hepatic steatosis.IL-27 plays a key role in the regulation of metabolic processes, but there are scarce data on circulating IL-27 levels in hypothyroidism. The purpose of this study was to assess the serum levels of IL-27 in patients with hypothyroidism and its relationship with NAFLD.

Methods

185 participants were included in this cross-sectional survey. According to thyroid function, the subjects were classified into three groups: euthyroidism (n = 55), subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 53), and hypothyroidism (n = 77). Serum IL-27 concentrations were measured by ELISA.

Results

Serum IL27 levels were significantly higher in subclinical hypothyroidism and hypothyroidism groups than in the euthyroidism group. Serum IL27 levels had a negative correlation with HOMA-IR,FBG,TG, subcutaneous fat,and visceral fat, and had a positive correlation with HDL-C (P< 0.05). Furthermore, logistic regression analysis indicated that IL-27 levels, HOMA-IR, and visceral fat showed significant associations with NAFLD after complete adjustment (P< 0.05). ROC curves showed that theoptimal cut-off value of serum IL-27 for discriminating NAFLD was 95.87pg/mL. The area under the ROC curve was 77.3% (95% CI = 0.694-0.851, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Serum IL-27 levels demonstrated a compensatory increase in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism or hypothyroidism and showed an independent association with NAFLD. Circulating IL-27 levels could predict the occurrence of NAFLD in hypothyroidism. These results suggested that altering the circulating levels of IL-27 may be a potential therapeutic target for NAFLD.

Environmental exposures are important risk factors for advanced liver fibrosis in African American adults

Background & Aims

The prevalence and aetiology of liver fibrosis vary over time and impact racial/ethnic groups unevenly. This study measured time trends and identified factors associated with advanced liver fibrosis in the United States.

Methods

Standardised methods were used to analyse data on 47,422 participants (≥20 years old) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2018). Advanced liver fibrosis was defined as Fibrosis-4 ≥2.67 and/or Forns index ≥6.9 and elevated alanine aminotransferase.

Results

The estimated number of people with advanced liver fibrosis increased from 1.3 million (95% CI 0.8-1.9) to 3.5 million (95% CI 2.8-4.2), a nearly threefold increase. Prevalence was higher in non-Hispanic Black and Mexican American persons than in non-Hispanic White persons. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, cadmium was an independent risk factor in all racial/ethnic groups. Smoking and current excessive alcohol use were risk factors in most. Importantly, compared with non-Hispanic White persons, non-Hispanic Black persons had a distinctive set of risk factors that included poverty (odds ratio [OR] 2.09; 95% CI 1.44-3.03) and susceptibility to lead exposure (OR 3.25; 95% CI 1.95-5.43) but did not include diabetes (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.61-1.27; p =0.52). Non-Hispanic Black persons were more likely to have high exposure to lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls, and poverty than non-Hispanic White persons.

Conclusions

The number of people with advanced liver fibrosis has increased, creating a need to expand the liver care workforce. The risk factors for advanced fibrosis vary by race/ethnicity. These differences provide useful information for designing screening programmes. Poverty and toxic exposures were associated with the high prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis in non-Hispanic Black persons and need to be addressed.

Impact and Implications

Because liver disease often produces few warning signs, simple and inexpensive screening tests that can be performed by non-specialists are needed to allow timely diagnosis and linkage to care. This study shows that non-Hispanic Black persons have a distinctive set of risk factors that need to be taken into account when designing liver disease screening programs. Exposure to exogenous toxins may be especially important risk factors for advanced liver fibrosis in non-Hispanic Black persons.

The Steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score: validation in the general US population

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive tests are important in the initial risk stratification of people at risk of fibrosis. The recently developed steatosis-associated fibrosis estimator (SAFE) score may have such potential but awaits external validation.

METHODS

We analyzed 6973 participants aged 18-80 in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017-2020 cycle with data on liver stiffness and SAFE score without prevalent heart failure. Fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness ≥8.0 kPa. Accuracy was evaluated by AUC and assessment of test characteristics at the prespecified cutoffs for ruling out/ruling in fibrosis.

RESULTS

The SAFE score categorized 14.7% of the population as high risk, 30.4% as intermediate risk, and 54.9% as low risk for fibrosis. The actual fibrosis prevalence in these groups was 28.0%, 10.9%, and 4.0%, respectively, translating into a positive predictive value of 0.28 at the high-risk cutoff and a negative predictive value of 0.96 at the low-risk cutoff. The AUC of the SAFE score (0.748) was significantly higher than the fibrosis-4 index (0.619) or NAFLD fibrosis score (0.718). However, test performance strongly depended on age categories: 90% of participants aged 18-40 years were considered at low risk for fibrosis, including 89/134 (66%) of clinically significant fibrosis cases. In the oldest group (60-80 y), fibrosis could only be safely ruled out among 17%, corresponding to a high referral rate of up to 83%. The best SAFE score performance was found in the middle-aged group (40-60 y). The results were consistent in target populations with metabolic dysfunction or steatosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The SAFE score has overall good diagnostic accuracy in detecting fibrosis but was highly dependent on age. The SAFE score lacked sensitivity in younger populations and the ability to rule out fibrosis in older populations.

Noninvasive serum biomarkers for liver fibrosis in NAFLD: current and future

In the last 20 years, noninvasive serum biomarkers to identify liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have been developed, validated against liver biopsy (the gold standard for determining the presence of liver fibrosis) and made available for clinicians to use to identify ≥F3 liver fibrosis. The aim of this review is firstly to focus on the current use of widely available biomarkers and their performance for identifying ≥F3. Secondly, we discuss whether noninvasive biomarkers have a role in identifying F2, a stage of fibrosis that is now known to be a risk factor for cirrhosis and overall mortality. We also consider whether machine learning algorithms offer a better alternative for identifying individuals with ≥F2 fibrosis. Thirdly, we summarise the utility of noninvasive serum biomarkers for predicting liver related outcomes (e.g., ascites and hepatocellular carcinoma) and non-liver related outcomes (e.g., cardiovascular-related mortality and extra hepatic cancers). Finally, we examine whether serial measurement of biomarkers can be used to monitor liver disease, and whether the use of noninvasive biomarkers in drug trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can accurately, compared to liver histology, monitor liver fibrosis progression/regression. We conclude by offering our perspective on the future of serum biomarkers for the detection and monitoring of liver fibrosis in NAFLD.

Long-Term Outcomes Associated with NAFLD, ASCVD, and All-Cause Mortality of Patients with Metabolic Syndrome

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) patients are at higher risk for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD), and death. Given a lack of longitudinal data on patients with MetS in Southeast Asia, this study investigated the incidence of NAFLD and ASCVD and the all-cause mortality rate during a 10-year follow-up of Thai patients with MetS. Retrospective data were collected on 496 MetS patients with ultrasonography or transient elastography results. The patients had been followed up continuously by a university hospital between October 2011 and November 2021, and their mean age was 61.0 ± 10.9 years. Patients with secondary causes of hepatic steatosis were excluded. Cox proportional hazards regression models with time-varying covariates were adopted. During the 10-year follow-up, 17 patients (11.2%) developed NAFLD, and 27 (6.4%) developed ASCVD. The NAFLD and ASCVD incidence rates were 21.7 and 10.9 events per 1000 person years, respectively. The mortality rate was 14.2 deaths per 1000 person years. The prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, ASCVD, NAFLD, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis at baseline was significantly higher in the nonsurvival group. The NAFLD incidence and mortality rate of patients with MetS were lower than those in previous studies. Intensive, holistic, and continuous care should be considered for better outcomes.

The obesity and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease mouse model revisited: Liver oxidative stress, hepatocyte apoptosis, and proliferation

The study revisited the diet-induced obesity (DIO) mice and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) pathogenesis to serve as a translational model. Hepatic beta-oxidation pathways, lipogenesis, oxidative stress, hepatocyte apoptosis, and proliferation were investigated in obese mice. Three-month-old male mice were divided according to their diet for fifteen weeks, the control diet (C group, containing 10% energy from fat) and the high-fat diet (HF group, containing 50% energy from fat). Body weight (BW), liver mass, and steatosis were higher in the HF group than in the C group. Also, gene expression related to beta-oxidation and lipogenesis showed an adverse profile, and insulin and glucose signaling pathways were impaired in the HF group compared to the C group. As a result, steatosis was prevalent in the HF group but not in the C group. Furthermore, the pathways that generate NAFLD were negatively modulated by oxidative stress in the HF animals than in the C ones. The caspase 3 immunolabeled HF hepatocytes with increased gene and protein expressions related to apoptosis while proliferating cell nuclear antigen labeled C hepatocytes. In conclusion, the findings in the DIO mouse model reproduce the NAFLD profile relative to the human NAFLD's apoptosis, insulin signaling, lipogenesis, beta-oxidation, and oxidative stress. Therefore, the model is adequate for a translational perspective's morphological, biochemical, and molecular research on NAFLD.