Burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in Europe between 1990 and 2019, and projections until 2039

Pancreatic cancer mortality trends attributable to high fasting blood sugar over the period 1990-2019 and projections up to 2040

Background

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a prevalent malignancy within the digestive system, with diabetes recognized as one of its well-established risk factors.

Methods

Data on PC mortality attributed to high fasting blood sugar were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 online database. To assess the temporal trends of PC burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) between 1990 and 2019 were determined using a generalized linear model. Furthermore, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model using the integrated nested Laplacian approximation algorithm was employed to project the disease burden over the next 20 years.

Results

Globally, the crude death number of PC attributable to HFPG almost tripled (from 13,065.7 in 1990 to 48,358.5 in 2019) from 1990 to 2019, and the ASDR increased from 0.36/100,000 to 0.61/100,000 with an EAPC of 2.04 (95% CI 1.91-2.16). The population aged ≥70 years accounted for nearly 60% of total deaths in 2019 and experienced a more significant increase, with the death number increasing approximately fourfold and the ASDR increasing annually by 2.65%. In regions with different sociodemographic indexes (SDIs), the highest disease burden was observed in the high-SDI region, whereas more pronounced increasing trends in ASDR were observed in the low to middle-SDI, low-SDI, and middle-SDI regions. Additionally, a significantly negative association was found between EAPCs and ASDRs of PC attributable to HFPG from 1990 to 2019. Moreover, the BAPC model predicts that ASDR and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate for PC attributed to HFPG was projected to increase obviously for men and women from 2019 to 2040.

Conclusions

The burden of PC attributed to HFPG has increased globally over the past three decades, with the elderly population and high-SDI regions carrying a relatively greater disease burden, but more adverse trends observed in low-SDI areas. Furthermore, the burden is projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years. Hence, more tailored prevention methodologies should be established to mitigate this increasing trend.

Global mortality of chronic liver diseases attributable to Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus infections from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2030

BACKGROUND

The burden of chronic liver disease (CLD) deaths attributable to the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains unknown. Further research is required to elucidate the extent of this burden in the eventual elimination of these diseases.

METHODS

Data on liver cancer, cirrhosis, and other CLD among 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) published in 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the temporal trend and predict the disease burden by 2030.

RESULTS

The number of HCV-related CLD deaths surpassed that of CLD deaths caused by HBV in 2019 (536833 deaths versus 523003 deaths) and is expected to be maintained until 2030 (689124 deaths versus 628824 deaths). East Asia had the highest burden of chronic HBV and HCV infections during the study period. In 2019, the largest age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of CLD deaths caused by HBV and HCV were mainly observed in Western Sub-Saharan Africa (18.75%) and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (16.42%), respectively. South Asia and East Asia are predicted to have the highest number of CLD deaths related to HCV and HBV by 2030. Eastern Europe and South Asia show the largest expected increase in disease burden caused by HCV or HBV between 2019 and 2030. No GBD region is projected to achieve the WHO target of a 65% reduction in mortality from chronic HBV and HCV infections by 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the mortality of CLD caused by HBV and HCV decreased in the last three decades (from 1990 to 2019), the number of deaths will continue to increase until 2030. Therefore, governments and international organizations need to strengthen the effectiveness of vaccines, screening, and treatment, especially in potential emerging hotspot regions.

Notable dysthymia: evolving trends of major depressive disorders and dysthymia in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

BACKGROUND

Depressive disorders have been identified as a significant contributor to non-fatal health loss in China. Among the various subtypes of depressive disorders, dysthymia is gaining attention due to its similarity in clinical severity and disability to major depressive disorders (MDD). However, national epidemiological data on the burden of disease and risk factors of MDD and dysthymia in China are scarce.

METHODS

This study aimed to evaluate and compare the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by MDD and dysthymia in China between 1990 and 2019. The temporal trends of the depressive disorder burden were evaluated using the average annual percentage change. The comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of DALYs attributed to risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the burden of depressive disorders.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the overall age-standardized estimates of dysthymia in China remained stable, while MDD showed a decreasing trend. Since 2006, the raw prevalence of dysthymia exceeded that of MDD for the first time, and increased alternately with MDD in recent years. Moreover, while the prevalence and burden of MDD decreased in younger age groups, it increased in the aged population. In contrast, the prevalence and burden of dysthymia remained stable across different ages. In females, 11.34% of the DALYs attributable to depressive disorders in 2019 in China were caused by intimate partner violence, which has increasingly become prominent among older women. From 2020 to 2030, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of dysthymia in China are projected to remain stable, while MDD is expected to continue declining.

CONCLUSIONS

To reduce the burden of depressive disorders in China, more attention and targeted strategies are needed for dysthymia. It's also urgent to control potential risk factors like intimate partner violence and develop intervention strategies for older women. These efforts are crucial for improving mental health outcomes in China.

Coumarin-modified ruthenium complexes: Synthesis, characterization, and antiproliferative activity against human cancer cells

Among ruthenium complexes studied as anticancer metallodrugs, NKP-1339, NAMI-A, RM175, and RAPTA-C have already entered clinical trials due to their potent antitumor activity demonstrated in preclinical studies and reduced toxicity in comparison with platinum drugs. Considering the advantages of ruthenium-based anticancer drugs and the cytostatic activity of organometallic complexes with triazole- and coumarin-derived ligands, we set out to synthesize Ru(II) complexes of coumarin-1,2,3,-triazole hybrids (L) with the general formula [Ru(L)(p-cymene)(Cl)]ClO4. The molecular structure of the complex [Ru(2a)(p-cymene)(Cl)]ClO4 (2aRu) was determined by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, which confirmed the coordination of the ligand to the central ruthenium(II) cation by bidentate mode of coordination. Coordination with Ru(II) resulted in the enhancement of cytostatic activity in HepG2 hepatocellular carcinoma cells and PANC-1 pancreatic cancer cells. Coumarin derivative 2a positively regulated the expression and activity of c-Myc and NPM1 in RKO colon carcinoma cells, while the Ru(II) half-sandwich complex 2cRu induced downregulation of AKT and ERK signaling in PANC-1 cells concomitant with reduced intracellular levels of reactive oxygen species. Altogether, our findings indicated that coumarin-modified half-sandwich Ru(II) complexes held potential as anticancer agents against gastrointestinal malignancies.

Global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in older adults, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI).

Methods

Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline.

Conclusion

Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.

Colorectal cancer and its attributable risk factors in East Asia, 1990-2030

BACKGROUND

The disease burden of colorectal cancer in East Asia has been at a high level. However, the epidemiological characteristics of the disease burden in this region have not been systematically studied.

METHOD

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 program. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify long-term trends in mortality of colorectal cancer. Independent effects of age, period, and cohort were detected by the age-period-cohort model. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was performed to predict the burden of colorectal cancer across East Asia by 2030.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) showed upward trends in mainland China (1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI)], 0.82, 1.28) as well as Taiwan Province of China (1.81 [95% CI], 1.51, 2.10) but downward in Japan (-0.60 [95% CI], -0.70, -0.49) (P < 0.05). Attributable risk factors for colorectal cancer in East Asia remained stable over 30 years, while the risk of metabolic factors is noteworthy in the future. In the next decade, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of colorectal cancer in China was predicted to surpass that of Japan and South Korea in expectation.

CONCLUSION

The mortality of colorectal cancer is escalating in developing countries, while it is gradually declining in high-income countries across East Asia. Nonetheless, the disease burden of colorectal cancer in high-income countries remains substantial level.

Global, regional, and national burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to occupational asbestos exposure 1990-2019 and prediction to 2035: worsening or improving?

Understanding the burden associated with occupational asbestos exposure on a global and regional scale is necessary to implement coordinated prevention and control strategies. By the GBD Study 2019, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of the non-communicable diseases burden attributable to occupational asbestos exposure. In 2019, 239,330 deaths and 4,189,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) worldwide due to occupational asbestos exposure occurred. 1990-2019, deaths and DALYs attributed to occupational asbestos exposure increased by 65.65% and 43.66%, respectively. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased, with the most rapid declines in high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, with average annual percent change (AAPC) of - 1.05(95%CI: -1.2, -0.89) and -1.53(95%CI: -1.71, -1.36), respectively. Lung cancer, mesothelioma and ovarian cancer were the top three contributors to the increase in deaths and DALYs, accounting for more than 96%. AAPCs of ASMR and ASDR were positively associated with SDI. Global deaths from occupational asbestos exposure were predicted to increase and ASMR to decrease by 2035, mostly in males. Due consideration should be given to the susceptibility of the elderly, the lag of asbestos onset, and the regional differences, and constantly improve the prevention and control measures of occupational asbestos exposure and related diseases.

Trend analysis and prediction of the incidence and mortality of CKD in China and the US

BACKGROUND

Currently, limited research is available on the comparative analysis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and mortality rates between China and the United States. This study aimed to explore the trends in CKD incidence and mortality rates in both countries, as well as make some future predictions.

METHODS

The data on CKD incidence and mortality in China and the US from 1990 to 2019 were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends in CKD incidence and mortality. An age-period-cohort model was used to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on CKD risk and forecast the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CKD in China and the US over the next 15 years.

RESULTS

CKD incidence in China and the US showed an upward trend. Its mortality rate showed a downward trend in China but an upward one in the US. The relative risk (RR) of CKD incidence and mortality increases with age. The RR of CKD incidence in the 0-5 age group exceeds that in the 5-55 age group, and the RR for mortality surpasses that in the 5-35 age group. Over time, the RR of CKD incidence has gradually increased in China and the US. Individuals born in later birth cohorts had a lower RR of CKD incidence and mortality. The ASIR of CKD may increase in both China and the US, whereas its ASMR may decline over the next 15 years.

CONCLUSION

Screening measures should be strengthened among populations at high risk of CKD; prenatal examinations of pregnant women should be emphasized to reduce CKD incidence in newborns. It is imperative to increase health education and encourage individuals to adopt healthy lifestyles.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma third line systemic treatments: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Chemotherapy for metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) primarily relies on FOLFIRINOX (LV5FU- irinotecan - Oxaliplatine) and Gemcitabine - Nab-Paclitaxel in the first-line setting. However, second-lines remain less well-defined and there is limited data regarding third-line treatments. The objective of our study was to determine the proportion of patients advancing to third line chemotherapy, to outline the various third-line chemotherapy regimens used in routine practice and to evaluate their respective efficacy.

METHODS

A retrospective single-center cohort from 2010-2022 compiled baseline characteristics, treatment outcomes and survival of PDAC patients who received at least one chemotherapy line in a French tertiary-center. Overall survivals (OS) were analyzed using a Cox multivariable model.

RESULTS

In total, 676 patients were included, with a median follow-up time of 69.4 months, (Interquartile Range (IQR) = 72.1). Of these, 251 patients (37%) that proceeded to 3rd-line chemotherapy. The median PFS in 3rd line was 2.03 months, [CI95%: 1.83, 2.36]. The median 3rd line overall survival was 5.5 months, [CI95%: 4.8, 6.3]. In multivariable analysis erlotinib-based chemotherapy was found to be deleterious (HR=2.38, [CI95%: 1.30, 4.34], p=0.005) compared to fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy in terms of 3rd line overall survival while gemcitabine monotherapy showed a tendency towards negative outcomes. First and 2nd line chemotherapies sequence didn't influence 3rd line outcome.

CONCLUSION

In our cohort, one-third of treated patients proceeded to 3rd line chemotherapy resulting in a 5.5 months median 3rd line OS, consistent with treatments at advanced stage. Our results argue against the use of erlotinib and gemcitabine monotherapy.

Microbial profile in bile from pancreatic and extra-pancreatic biliary tract cancer

BACKGROUND

Dysbiotic biliary bacterial profile is reported in cancer patients and is associated with survival and comorbidities, raising the question of its effect on the influence of anticancer drugs and, recently, the suggestion of perichemotherapy antibiotics in pancreatic cancer patients colonized by the Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we investigated the microbial communities that colonize tumours and which bacteria could aid in diagnosing pancreatic and biliary cancer and managing bile-colonized patients.

METHODS

A retrospective study on positive bile cultures of 145 Italian patients who underwent cholangiopancreatography with PC and EPC cancer hospitalized from January 2006 to December 2020 in a QA-certified academic surgical unit were investigated for aerobic/facultative-anaerobic bacteria and fungal organisms.

RESULTS

We found that among Gram-negative bacteria, Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas spp were the most frequent in the EPC group, while Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp, and Pseudomonas spp were the most frequent in the PC group. Enterococcus spp was the most frequent Gram-positive bacteria in both groups. Comparing the EPC and PC, we found a significant presence of patients with greater age in the PC compared to the EPC group. Regarding Candida spp, we found no significant but greater rate in the PC group compared to the EPC group (11.7% vs 1.96%). We found that Alcaligenes faecalis was the most frequent bacteria in EPC than the PC group, among Gram-negative bacterial species.

CONCLUSIONS

Age differences in gut microbiota composition may affect biliary habitats in our cancer population, especially in patients with pancreatic cancer. Alcaligenes faecalis isolated in the culture of bile samples could represent potential microbial markers for a restricted follow-up to early diagnosis of extra-pancreatic cancer. Finally, the prevalence of Candida spp in pancreatic cancer seems to trigger new aspects about debate about the role of fungal microbiota into their relationship with pancreatic cancer.

Global Burden of Pancreatic Cancer Attributable to High Body-Mass Index in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2019

(1) Background: This study aimed to assess the global burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to a high BMI in 1990-2019. (2) Methods: An ecological study was carried out. Data about deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for pancreatic cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were presented. In order to determine trends of pancreatic cancer burden, joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC). (3) Results: The highest ASRs of DALYs of pancreatic cancer were found in the United Arab Emirates (47.5 per 100,000), followed by countries with about 25.0 per 100,000 (such as Hungary, Czechia, and Montenegro). From 1990 to 2019, the ASRs of deaths and DALYs of pancreatic cancer attributable to a high BMI significantly increased (p < 0.001) for both sexes in all ages, and across all SDI quintiles and all GBD regions. The highest fraction of DALYs attributable to a high BMI was found in the United States of America and China (equally about 15.0%), followed by the Russian Federation, India, Germany, and Brazil (about 5.0%, equally). (4) Conclusions: Further analytical epidemiological studies are necessary to elucidate the relationship between pancreatic cancer and a high BMI.

Burden of pancreatic cancer in older adults globally, regionally, and in 204 countries: 1990-2019 and projections to 2030

BACKGROUND

Global aging is increasing; however, the epidemiologic characteristics of pancreatic cancer in older adults have not been systematically studied.

METHODS

This study used data on pancreatic cancer in older adults from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 project. Temporal trends were measured using average annual percentage change and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. In addition, the inequality slope index and the health concentration index scores were calculated to quantify the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatic cancer in older adults.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the number of pancreatic cancer deaths in older adults, age-standardized death rate (ASDR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALY rate increased globally. In 2019, ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate for pancreatic cancer in older adults were the highest in Southern Latin America, whereas the burden has grown the fastest over the past 30 years in the Caribbean. The burden is predominantly distributed among those aged 65 to 74 years, with males having a higher burden than that of females. The global proportion of pancreatic cancer deaths in older adults attributed to smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index were 21.7%, 10.3%, and 5.8%, respectively. Both absolute and relative cross-national inequalities declined over the past 30 years but remained at medium-high levels of relative inequality. Deaths from pancreatic cancer among older adults are expected to continue to increase over the next 11 years.

CONCLUSION

The global burden of pancreatic cancer among older adults has continued to rise over the past 30 years, and cross-national health inequalities remain high. Therefore, targeted measures must be taken to address this inequality.

Has the trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in Spain started to slow down?

INTRODUCTION

the aim of this study was to describe the trends of pancreatic cancer mortality by autonomous communities (ACs) and gender in Spain (1980-2021).

METHODS

an ecological trend study was performed (with aggregated data obtained from the National Institute of Statistics). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for pancreatic cancer (per 100,000) were estimated by direct standardization, using the European standard population. Trends in ASMR (all ages and truncated 35-64 years) were analyzed by sex in each AC using a joinpoint regression model. The annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percentage of change (AAPC) were computed for trends using the joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

in both sexes, ASMRs (all ages) increased significantly (p < 0.05) during the study period (AAPC: 1.5 % in males and 1.8 % in females). The joinpoint analysis identified a turning point in the trends in the late 1980s, which delineates two periods: an initial period of significant increase followed by a period of slowing of the increase (APC: 0.9 % and 1.4 % in males and females respectively; p < 0.05). In both sexes, a significant increase in ASMR (all ages) was observed in all ACs, except in Navarre, where the rates remained stable in males. In males, three ACs (Galicia, Madrid and Navarre) showed a point of inflexion in the time trend around the year 2000 (1999, 2000 and 2001 respectively), when the rates, after a period of significant increase (ACs: 2.6 %, 2.4 %, and 2.4 %, respectively; p < 0.05), stabilized (Galicia and Navarre) or the increase slowed (Madrid). In females, only Madrid showed a point of inflection in 1992, when, after a significant increase, the rates slowed down (1992-2021; APC: 1.5 %; p < 0.05).  Conclusions: the upward trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in some ACs seems to have slowed (in both sexes in Madrid), stabilized (in men in Galicia and Navarre) or turned around (in men aged 30-64 in Navarre).

Trends in liver cancer mortality in China from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to examine trends in overall mortality rates for liver cancer and those within subgroups according to sex, age, aetiological factors and modifiable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019.

DESIGN

The design of this study involved analysing liver cancer mortality rates in China from 1990 to 2019 using joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in mortality rates. Annual percentage changes (APCs) and 95% CIs were used to quantify the magnitude of changes in mortality rates. The study also conducted subgroup analyses based on sex, age, aetiological factors and risk factors to better understand trends in liver cancer mortality rates.

RESULTS

The age-standardised mortality from liver cancer in China first increased from 28.12 to 31.54 deaths per 100 000 population in 1990-1996 (APC=2.1%, 95% CI: 1.5% to 2.6%), then dropped at varying rates (1996-2000, APC=-3.7%, 95% CI: -5.2% to -2.1%; 2000-2004, APC=-17.4%, 95% CI: -18.7% to -16.1%; 2004-2007, APC=-5.4%, 95% CI: -8.3% to -2.3%; and 2007-2012, APC=-1.4%, 95% CI: -2.3% to -0.4%), and began to increase again after 2012 (APC=1.3%, 95% CI: 0.9% to 1.7%). Hepatitis B and C virus infections accounted for 63% and 18% of liver cancer-related deaths, respectively, in China from 1990 to 2019. Smoking, drug use, alcohol use and elevated body mass index were the four leading risk factors for liver cancer mortality in China during the study period. Notable variations in both liver cancer mortality rates and changes in mortality rates were observed across sexes and age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The age-standardised liver cancer mortality rate in China significantly decreased from 1996 to 2019. The major differences in liver cancer mortality rates and inconsistent changes in mortality rates between 1990 and 2019 merit the attention of researchers and policymakers.

Trends and projections of inflammatory bowel disease at the global, regional and national levels, 1990-2050: a bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a global health concern with varying levels and trends across countries and regions. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective prevention and treatment strategies.

METHODS

Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study, we examine IBD incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates in 198 countries from 1990 to 2019. To assess changes in the burden of IBD, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the future 30-year trends of IBD.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 405,000 new IBD cases globally (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 361,000 to 457,000), with 41,000 deaths (95% UI 35,000 to 45,000) and 1.62million DALYs (95% UI 1.36-1.92million). The global age-standardized incidence rate in 2019 was 4.97 per 100,000 person-years (95% UI 4.43 to 5.59), with a mortality rate of 0.54 (95% UI 0.46 to 0.59) and DALYs rate of 20.15 (95% UI 16.86 to 23.71). From 1990 to 2019, EAPC values for incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates were - 0.60 (95% UI - 0.73 to - 0.48), - 0.69 (95% UI - 0.81 to - 0.57), and - 1.04 (95% UI - 1.06 to - 1.01), respectively. Overall, the burden of IBD has shown a slow decline in recent years. In SDI stratification, regions with higher initial SDI (high-income North America and Central Europe) witnessed decreasing incidence and mortality rates with increasing SDI, while regions with lower initial SDI (South Asia, Oceania, and Latin America) experienced a rapid rise in incidence but a decrease in mortality with increasing SDI. Predictions using a Bayesian model showed lower new cases and deaths from 2020 to 2050 than reference values, while the slope of the predicted incidence-time curve closely paralleled that of the 2019 data.

CONCLUSION

Increasing cases, deaths, and DALYs highlight the sustained burden of IBD on public health. Developed countries have stabilized or declining incidence rates but face high prevalence and societal burden. Emerging and developing countries experience rising incidence. Understanding these changes aids policymakers in effectively addressing IBD challenges in different regions and economic contexts.

Pancreatic Cancer and its Attributable Risk Factors in East Asia, Now and Future

BACKGROUND

The disease burden of pancreatic cancer in East Asia is at a high level, but the epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer in the region have not been systematically studied.

METHOD

Joinpoint analysis was used to identify average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) in mortality. Age-period-cohort models were used to analyze age-period cohort effects across countries. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project the burden of disease for 2020-2030.

RESULTS

Pancreatic cancer mortality in males in Japan (2012-2019, APC = -0.97) and Korea (2012-2019, APC = -0.91) has shown a decreasing trend since 2012 (P < .05). However, China (2016-2019, APC = 3.21), Mongolia (2015-2.019, APC = 2.37), and North Korea (2012-2019, APC = 0.47) showed a significant increase in pancreatic cancer in both genders (P < .05). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer in East Asia remained largely stable between 2010 and 2019. Mortality of pancreatic cancer due to smoking began to decline in areas with high socio-demographic index (SDI), and mortality of pancreatic cancer due to high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. The age-standardized mortality for pancreatic cancer in Chinese males is expected to exceed that of Japan and South Korea by 2030, but the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in Japan and South Korea remains at extremely high levels.

CONCLUSION

Economically developed countries are beginning to show a decreasing trend in the burden of pancreatic cancer disease, and developing countries are experiencing a rapid increase in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of pancreatic cancer.

Portomesenteric venous contact ≤180° and overall survival in resectable head and body pancreatic adenocarcinoma treated with upfront surgery

INTRODUCTION

Upfront surgery is the standard of care for resectable pancreatic cancer, defined as the absence of or ≤180° tumour contact with the portal/superior mesenteric vein. We hypothesized that portomesenteric venous tumour contact is prognostically unfavourable and aimed to assess whether it is associated with poorer survival compared with no venous contact in resectable head and body pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

This single-centre retrospective study included patients undergoing upfront surgery for resectable head and body pancreatic cancer in 2010-2020 at Umeå University Hospital, Sweden. No venous contact was compared with portomesenteric venous contact of ≤180° based on preoperative imaging. Overall survival on an intention-to-treat basis was compared with Kaplan-Meier curves, a log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

The final study cohort included 39 patients with portomesenteric venous tumour contact and 144 patients without venous tumour contact. Patients with venous tumour contact had a median overall survival of 15.3 months compared to 23.0 months (log rank P = 0.059). Portomesenteric venous tumour contact was an independent negative prognostic factor for survival in the multivariable Cox model (HR 1.68; 95% CI 1.11-2.55, P = 0.014) and was associated with higher rates of microscopically non-radical resections (R1) (50% vs 26.1%, P = 0.012) and pathological lymph node metastasis (76.7% vs 56.8%, P = 0.012). There was no difference in adjuvant chemotherapy receipt or postoperative complications between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Portomesenteric venous tumour contact is associated with poorer overall survival and higher rates of R1 resections and lymph node metastasis in patients with resectable head and body pancreatic cancer treated with upfront surgery.

Global, regional, and national thyroid cancer age-period-cohort modeling and Bayesian predictive modeling studies: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

Objective

To analyze the changing trend of the global burden of thyroid cancer (TC) and its associated risk factors using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (GBD 2019).

Methods

This study utilized the GBD 2019 database to analyze the burden trend of TC in various regions and countries from 1990 to 2019, while also examining the age-period-cohort (APC) effect. Additionally, the study used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) and predictive models to forecast TC incidence up until 2030.

Results

According to data from 2019, there were 233,846.64 (95 % UI 211,636.89-252,806.55) cases of TC worldwide. The burden of TC varies among regions and countries, with higher incidence rates observed in moderate and above SDI regions. Age and gender also play a role, with incidence rates peaking in the >95 age group for men and the 70-74 age group for women. Additionally, women have a higher incidence than men. The APC model revealed that the impact of age was most significant among individuals aged 95 years and older, while it was lowest among those aged 0-14 years. Additionally, the period effect showed a relatively low risk of morbidity with a Period RR < 0 during 1990-2004 and a high relative risk of morbidity with a Period RR > 0 during 2005-2019. Furthermore, the cohort effect demonstrated that the relative risk of developing the disease was lower before 1950 and higher after 1950. Predicted values show an increasing trend in thyroid incidence over the next 30 years.

Conclusions

The findings of this study highlight the continued significance of thyroid cancer as a global public health issue. It is crucial to develop targeted interventions that address the specific risk factors associated with thyroid cancer. Furthermore, health policies should be customized and adapted to the unique needs of different regions and populations.

Lycorine inhibits pancreatic cancer cell growth and neovascularization by inducing Notch1 degradation and downregulating key vasculogenic genes

Pancreatic cancer is highly metastatic and lethal with an increasing incidence globally and a 5-year survival rate of only 8%. One of the factors contributing to the high mortality is the lack of effective drugs in the clinical setting. We speculated that effective compounds against pancreatic cancer exist in natural herbs and explored active small molecules among traditional Chinese medicinal herbs. The small molecule lycorine (MW: 323.77) derived from the herb Lycoris radiata inhibited pancreatic cancer cell growth with an IC50 value of 1 μM in a concentration-dependent manner. Lycorine markedly reduced pancreatic cancer cell viability, migration, invasion, neovascularization, and gemcitabine resistance. Additionally, lycorine effectively suppressed tumor growth in mouse xenograft models without obvious toxicity. Pharmacological studies revealed that the levels and half-life of Notch1 oncoprotein in the pancreatic cancer cells Panc-1 and Patu8988 were notably reduced. Moreover, the expression of the key vasculogenic genes Semaphorin 4D (Sema4D) and angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) were also significantly inhibited by lycorine. Mechanistically, lycorine strongly triggered the degradation of Notch1 oncoprotein through the ubiquitin-proteasome system. In conclusion, lycorine effectively inhibits pancreatic cancer cell growth, migration, invasion, neovascularization, and gemcitabine resistance by inducing degradation of Notch1 oncoprotein and downregulating the key vasculogenic genes Sema4D and Ang-2. Our findings provide a new therapeutic candidate and treatment strategy against pancreatic cancer.

Downward trends in the global burden of congenital complete hearing loss in children younger than five years from 1990 to 2030

Background

The global epidemiological data on congenital hearing loss in children is sparse. We aimed to analyse the trends in the burden of complete hearing loss caused by congenital birth defects in children younger than five years from 1990 to 2030.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, we reported the counts and rates of prevalence and years lived with disability (YLD) by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI). We also forecasted the prevalence rates until 2030 through the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models.

Results

We observed a global prevalence rate of 15.4 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 5.8 to 33.8) and a YLD rate of 3.3 (95% UI = 1.1 to 7.1) per 100 000 population in 2019, with both showing downward trends from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, Oceania had the highest prevalence (47.2; 95% UI = 18.8 to 96.6) and YLD (10; 95% UI = 3.2 to 22.8) rates, while Central Europe had the lowest rates. Nationally, the prevalence (85.0; 95% UI = 36.8 to 166.8) and YLD (17.9; 95% UI = 6.6 to 36.9) rates were highest in Myanmar and lowest in Peru. Only the United States of America (2.6%; 95% UI = -4.6 to 14.4) and Norway (0.6%; 95% UI = -6.7 to 16.2) showed upward trends. Compared to girls, the prevalence and YLD rates were higher for boys at global, regional, and five SDI quintile levels, except for Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa. At the global level, downward trends were predicted in prevalence rates from 2019 to 2030 between boys and girls.

Conclusions

Although the global burden of childhood congenital complete hearing loss showed inequalities across locations, sexes, and age groups, we found decreases in the global prevalence rates between 1990 and 2019 and predicted decreases from 2019 to 2030. Better prevention of infectious aetiologies, improving genetic diagnoses, and hearing restoration could alleviate this burden.

Low dosage combination treatment with metformin and simvastatin inhibits obesity-promoted pancreatic cancer development in male KrasG12D mice

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), a highly lethal disease with limited therapeutic options, may benefit from repurposing of FDA-approved drugs in preventive or interceptive strategies in high-risk populations. Previous animal studies demonstrated that the use of metformin and statins as single agents at relatively high doses restrained PDAC development. Here, four-week-old mice expressing KrasG12D in all pancreatic lineages (KC mice) and fed an obesogenic high fat, high calorie diet that promotes early PDAC development were randomized onto low dosage metformin, simvastatin, or both drugs in combination administered orally. Dual treatment attenuated weight gain, fibro-inflammation, and development of advanced PDAC precursor lesions (pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia [PanIN]-3) in male KC mice, without significant effect in females or when administered individually. Dual-treated KC mice had reduced proliferation of PanIN cells and decreased transcriptional activity of the Hippo effectors, YAP and TAZ, which are important regulators of PDAC development. Metformin and simvastatin also synergistically inhibited colony formation of pancreatic cancer cells in vitro. Together, our data demonstrated that a combination of low doses of metformin and simvastatin inhibits PDAC development and imply that both drugs are promising agents for being tested in clinical trials for preventing pancreatic cancer progression.

Time trend of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Western Pacific Region: age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and forecasting for 2044

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer poses a serious medical problem worldwide. Countries in the Western Pacific Region are facing public health challenges from cancer. This study assesses the time trends of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2019 and predicts its trend to 2044.

METHODS

Mortality data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange. We used an age-period-cohort model to estimate age, period and birth cohort effects on pancreatic cancer mortality from 1990 to 2019 by calculating net drift, local drift, age-specific rate, period rate ratio, and cohort rate ratio. We also predict pancreatic cancer mortality to 2044 in Western Pacific countries.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 178,276 (95% uncertain interval: 157,771 to 198,636) pancreatic cancer deaths in the Western Pacific Region in 2019, accounting for 33.6% of all deaths due to pancreatic cancer worldwide. There were significant increases in pancreatic cancer disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2019 in the Western Pacific Region, mainly due to population growth and aging. Pancreatic cancer mortality increased with age. The period effect showed an increasing trend of mortality for both sexes over the study period. Compared to the reference period (2000 to 2004), the rate ratio was elevated in both males and females in the period of 2015 to 2019. There was an overall increasing rate ratio from early birth cohorts to recent cohorts. Deaths may continue to increase in the next 25 years in the ten countries, while most countries have seen their age-standardized rate forecasts fall.

CONCLUSION

The mortality of pancreatic cancer is still high in the Western Pacific Region. Countries/territories should focus on pancreatic cancer prevention and early cancer screening in high-risk populations. Specific public health methods and policies aimed at reducing risk factors for pancreatic cancer are also needed.

Management of Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer-Comparison of Global Guidelines over the Last 5 Years

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is usually diagnosed at an advanced stage of its development, which results in lower overall survival (OS). Prognosis is also poor even with curative-intent surgery. Approximately 80% of patients with localized PDAC have micrometastases at the time of diagnosis, which leads to a worse prognosis than in other cancers. The objective of this study is to present the progress in the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer based on the recommendations of oncological scientific societies, such as ESMO, NCCN, ASCO, NICE and SEOM, over the last 5 years. Combined FOLFIRINOX therapy is mostly a recommended therapy among patients with good performance statuses, while gemcitabine is recommended for more fragile patients as a first-line treatment. The newest guidelines suggest that molecular profiling of the tumor should be the first step in determining the course of treatment. The use of modern molecular therapies in patients with specific gene mutations should extend the survival of patients with this disease.

The burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Globally, pancreatic cancer is recognized as one of the most lethal types of cancers. We report the burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex, and socio-demographic index.

METHODS

Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study were used to report the incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to pancreatic cancer, as counts and age-standardized rates with 95% uncertainty intervals.

RESULTS

In 2019, pancreatic cancer had an age-standardized incidence rate of 5.3 and a death rate of 5.5 (per 100 000) in MENA, which have increased by 97.5% and 93.4%, respectively, since 1990. There were 563.6 thousand DALYs attributable to pancreatic cancer in 2019, with an age-standardized DALY rate of 123.0, which has increased by 84.9% since 1990. The highest number of incident cases was found in the 60-64 and 65-69 age groups, among male and female, respectively. In addition, the MENA/global DALY ratios were higher in all age groups for both sexes in 2019, than they were in 1990. There was a positive association between socio-demographic index and the burden of pancreatic cancer. Smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body mass index were responsible for 19.2%, 9.3%, and 9.3% of the attributable DALYs in 2019, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a clear and substantial increase in the burden of pancreatic cancer in the MENA region. Prevention programs should be implemented in the region that target these three risk factors.

Targeting AHR Increases Pancreatic Cancer Cell Sensitivity to Gemcitabine through the ELAVL1-DCK Pathway

The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) is a transcription factor that is commonly upregulated in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). AHR hinders the shuttling of human antigen R (ELAVL1) from the nucleus to the cytoplasm, where it stabilises its target messenger RNAs (mRNAs) and enhances protein expression. Among these target mRNAs are those induced by gemcitabine. Increased AHR expression leads to the sequestration of ELAVL1 in the nucleus, resulting in chemoresistance. This study aimed to investigate the interaction between AHR and ELAVL1 in the pathogenesis of PDAC in vitro. AHR and ELAVL1 genes were silenced by siRNA transfection. The RNA and protein were extracted for quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and Western blot (WB) analysis. Direct binding between the ELAVL1 protein and AHR mRNA was examined through immunoprecipitation (IP) assay. Cell viability, clonogenicity, and migration assays were performed. Our study revealed that both AHR and ELAVL1 inter-regulate each other, while also having a role in cell proliferation, migration, and chemoresistance in PDAC cell lines. Notably, both proteins function through distinct mechanisms. The silencing of ELAVL1 disrupts the stability of its target mRNAs, resulting in the decreased expression of numerous cytoprotective proteins. In contrast, the silencing of AHR diminishes cell migration and proliferation and enhances cell sensitivity to gemcitabine through the AHR-ELAVL1-deoxycytidine kinase (DCK) molecular pathway. In conclusion, AHR and ELAVL1 interaction can form a negative feedback loop. By inhibiting AHR expression, PDAC cells become more susceptible to gemcitabine through the ELAVL1-DCK pathway.

Global long-term trends and spatial cluster analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality over a 30-year period using the global burden of disease study 2019 data

INTRODUCTION

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most fatal malignancies, and its incidence and mortality rates are growing annually throughout the world. In this research, we aimed to investigate the time trends and identify the spatial clusters of incidence and mortality on a global scale over the last 30 years, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 data.

METHODS

Age-standardized incidence and mortality data due to PC were extracted from the GBD study, which was carried out from 1990 to 2019. A Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to examine trends in the incidence and mortality of PC over the past three decades. As such, spatial analyses were undertaken to detect the spatial distribution and clustering of the metrics globally.

RESULTS

It was observed that both the incidence and mortality rates were higher in males than in females worldwide. The global mortality and incidence rates significantly increased by 0.8% per year over the time of follow-up period (p<0.05). By spatial cluster analysis for mortality, European and North African countries, as well as Greenland were explored as hot spots; while South African and Southeast Asian countries were explored as cold spots. Regarding incidence, hot spots were found in European countries, Southern America, and Greenland; whilst cold spots were determined in Southern Africa and Madagascar.

CONCLUSIONS

Collectively, the temporal trends disclosed a gradual rise in PC incidence and mortality rates over the period 1990-2019, reflecting the global health concern. We further found geographical variations in the patterns and identified high- and low-risk areas for incidence and mortality. These findings facilitate the design and implementation of more resource-efficient and geographically targeted treatments. Given the results of the current study, a practical approach to minimizing the future PC burden involves planned population-wide interventions, as well as primary prevention through healthier lifestyles.

Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for migraine, from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

BACKGROUND

The majority of epidemiological studies on migraine have been conducted in a specific country or region, and there is a lack of globally comparable data. We aim to report the latest information on global migraine incidence overview trends from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

In this study, the available data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. We present temporal trends in migraine for the world and its 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, an age-period-cohort model be used to estimate net drifts (overall annual percentage change), local drifts (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global incidence of migraine increased to 87.6 million (95% UI: 76.6, 98.7), with an increase of 40.1% compared to 1990. India, China, United States of America, and Indonesia had the highest number of incidences, accounting for 43.6% of incidences globally. Females experienced a higher incidence than males, the highest incidence rate was observed in the 10-14 age group. However, there was a gradual transition in the age distribution of incidence from teenagers to middle-aged populations. The net drift of incidence rate ranged from 3.45% (95% CI: 2.38, 4.54) in high-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions to -4.02% (95% CI: -4.79, -3.18) in low SDI regions, 9 of 204 countries showed increasing trends (net drifts and its 95% CI were > 0) in incidence rate. The age-period-cohort analysis results showed that the relative risk of incidence rate generally showed unfavorable trends over time and in successively birth cohorts among high-, high-middle-, and middle SDI regions, but low-middle- and low-SDI regions keep stable.

CONCLUSIONS

Migraine is still an important contributor to the global burden of neurological disorders worldwide. Temporal trends in migraine incidence are not commensurate with socioeconomic development and vary widely across countries. Both sexes and all age groups should get healthcare to address the growing migraine population, especially adolescents and females.

How does social media use influence the mental health of pancreatic cancer patients: a chain mediating effect of online social support and psychological resilience

Background

Pancreatic cancer is an extremely malignant disease that poses a serious threat to the mental health of patients. Many cancer patients now use social media for online social support. However, the impact of social media on mental health is currently inconsistent in the academic community. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the mediating effects of online social support and psychological resilience in the relationship between social media use and mental health of pancreatic cancer patients.

Methods

Four hundred and twenty-five valid questionnaires were collected through convenience sampling. All data were processed using SPSS 26.0 and AMOS 26.0. We examine the influence relationships among latent variables by constructing a structural equation model. Then SPSS Process Macro was used to test the chain mediating effect of the model.

Results

The results showed that (1) anxiety situations occurred in 22.2% of participants (N = 94), while the incidence of depression was 20.2% (N = 86). (2) Social media use positively influenced online social support (β = 0.990, p < 0.001), psychological resilience (β = 0.504, p < 0.001), and mental health (β = 0.330, p < 0.001); online social support positively influenced psychological resilience (β = 0.535, p < 0.001) and mental health (β = 0.354, p < 0.001); psychological resilience significantly and positively influenced mental health (β = 0.243, p < 0.001). (3) The chain mediating effect of online social support and psychological resilience was significant at 0.253 with a confidence interval of [0.178, 0.340].

Conclusion

Pancreatic cancer patients in China are exposed to a high burden of anxiety and depression, which requires urgent attention. Meanwhile, online social support and psychological resilience played a chain mediating role between social media use and mental health (anxiety and depression), and our results provide new insights and ways to support the mental health improvement of pancreatic cancer patients.

Patterns of global burden of 13 diseases attributable to lead exposure, 1990-2019

OBJECTIVES

Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of the global burden of various diseases resulting from lead exposure is critical for controlling lead pollution and disease prevention.

METHODS

Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) framework and methodology, the global, regional, and national burden of 13 level-three diseases attributable to lead exposure were analyzed by disease type, patient age and sex, and year of occurrence. Population attributable fraction (PAF), deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) obtained from the GBD 2019 database were used as descriptive indicators, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was estimated by a log-linear regression model to reflect the time trend.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs resulting from lead exposure increased by 70.19% and 35.26%, respectively; however, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 20.66% and 29.23%, respectively. Ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and hypertensive heart disease (HHD) showed the highest increases in deaths; IHD, stroke, and diabetes and kidney disease (DKD) had the fastest-growing DALYs. The fastest decline in ASMR and ASDR was seen in stroke, with AAPCs of -1.25 (95% CI [95% confidence interval]: -1.36, -1.14) and -1.66 (95% CI: -1.76, -1.57), respectively. High PAFs occurred mainly in South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Age-specific PAFs of DKD resulting from lead exposure were positively correlated with age, whereas the opposite was true for mental disorders (MD), with the burden of lead-induced MD concentrated in children aged 0-6 years. The AAPCs of ASMR and ASDR showed a strong negative correlation with the socio-demographic index. Our findings showed that the global impact of lead exposure and its burden increased from 1990 to 2019 and varied significantly according to age, sex, region, and resulting disease. Effective public health measures and policies should be adopted to prevent and control lead exposure.

New Regional Dynamic Cancer Model across the European Union

BACKGROUND

Can increasing levels of economic wealth significantly influence changes in cancer incidence and mortality rates?

METHODS

We investigated this issue by means of regression analyses based on the study of incidence and mortality indicators for lip, oral cavity, and pharyngeal; colon; pancreatic; lung; leukaemia; brain and central nervous system cancers in correlation with the levels of economic welfare and financial allocations to health at the level of the European Union member states, with the exception of Luxembourg and Cyprus for which there are no official statistical data reported.

RESULTS

The results of the study showed that there were significant disparities both regionally and by gender, requiring corrective public policy measures that were formulated in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

The conclusions highlight the main findings of the study in terms of the evolution of the disease, present the significant aspects that characterise the evolution of each type of cancer during the period analysed (1993-2021), and highlight the novelty and limitations of the study and future directions of research. As a result, increasing economic welfare is a potential factor in halting the effects of cancer incidence and mortality at the population level, while the financial allocations to health of EU member countries' budgets are a drawback due to large regional disparities.

Projections of Lung Cancer Incidence by 2035 in 40 Countries Worldwide: Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities.

METHODS

Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases.

CONCLUSIONS

LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.

Temporal Trends in the Disease Burden of Colorectal Cancer with Its Risk Factors at the Global and National Level from 1990 to 2019, and Projections Until 2044

Background

This study aimed to evaluate the global colorectal cancer(CRC) trend and the relevant risk factors from 1990 to 2019 and for better policymaking and resource allocation.

Methods

Data on CRC, including incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates, were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trend of incidence, mortality and DALYs. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model(BAPC) was used to predict the future burden of CRC.

Results

In 2019, a total of 2.17 million CRC cases were reported worldwide, a 157% increase from 1990. In high-social demographic index (SDI) regions, the trend of age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) tended to decrease, while the proportion of people under 50 years of age tended to increase. Although the number of deaths and DALYs increased, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate decreased. The CRC burden was growing fastest in middle-SDI regions, especially in East Asia, followed by low SDI regions. In addition, the milk intake, High-BMI and high fasting plasma glucose play a more important role in on CRC. The predicted cases and deaths in global continued to increase to 2044. And there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women.

Conclusion

In developed regions, the CRC burden continues to decrease, while the CRC burden become more and more severe in developing regions. Overall, the burden of CRC will rising in the near future. Therefore, reasonable resource allocation and prevention policies should be implemented. Developing countries needs more attention.

Temporal Trends of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Burden in China from 1990 to 2030 with Comparisons to Japan, South Korea, the European Union, the United States of America, and the World

Purpose

To identify and predict the epidemiological burden and trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in China and compare them globally.

Methods

We collected incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of IBD from 1990 to 2019 in China, four developed countries and the world, from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the numbers of incident and prevalent cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of IBD increased in China, regardless of gender and age; decreased YLLs and increased YLDs caused a stable number of DALYs; the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased. In 2019, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were 3.01/100,000 person-years (/100,000) (95% UI: 2.59, 3.50), 47.06/100,000 (95% UI: 40.05, 54.99), 0.30/100,000 (95% UI: 0.24, 0.35), and 13.1/100,000 (95% UI: 10.29, 16.31), respectively; almost all disease burden data were higher in males. In 2017, the ASDR in different socio-demographic index provinces ranged from 24.62/100,000 (95% UI: 16.95, 33.81) to 63.97/100,000 (95% UI: 44.61, 91.48). When compared globally, the ASIR and ASPR in China had opposite trends and the highest AAPCs. In 2019, the ASIR and ASPR in China were in the middle of the world and lower than in some developed countries. The numbers and ASRs of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs were expected to increase by 2030.

Conclusion

The IBD burden in China significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 and was expected to rise further by 2030. China had the world's opposite and most dramatic trends in ASIR and ASPR from 1990 to 2019. Strategies should be adjusted to adapt to the significantly increased disease burden.

Salivary noncoding RNA in the diagnosis of pancreatic cancer: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer is considered one of the most deadly malignancies, primarily because of its diagnostic challenges. We performed a systematic review and diagnostic meta-analysis to evaluate the diagnostic value of noncoding salivary RNAs in pancreatic cancer diagnosis.

METHODS

Our investigation involved pertinent studies published in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, LIVIVO, Ovid and also the Google Scholar search engine. Specificity and sensitivity were calculated, as were positive and negative likelihood ratios (PLR and NLR), and the diagnostic odds ratio (DOR). The summary receiver-operating characteristics and area under the curve were plotted and assessed.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis and systematic review involved and examined five studies that contained 145 study units with a total of 2731 subjects (1465 pancreatic cancer patients versus 1266 noncancer controls). The pooled specificity, sensitivity, NLR, PLR and DOR were 0.783 (95% CI: 0.759-0.805), 0.829 (95% CI: 0.809-0.848), 0.309 (95% CI: 0.279-0.343), 3.386 (95% CI: 2.956-3.879) and 18.403 (95% CI: 14.753-22.954), respectively, with the area under the curve (AUC) equal to 0.882. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on the saliva type (unstimulated and stimulated), mean age of patients, sample size, type of control, serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level and type of salivary noncoding RNA (microRNA (miRNA) and long noncoding RNA (lncRNA)).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of our systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that noncoding RNA biomarkers in the stimulated saliva could be a promising approach for accurate pancreatic cancer diagnosis in the early stages.

Global, Regional, and National Burdens with Temporal Trends of Early-, Intermediate-, and Later-Onset Gastric Cancer from 1990 to 2019 and Predictions up to 2035

Simple Summary

Early, intermediate, and late-onset gastric cancer (EOGC, IOGC, LOGC) incidence and death rates differed globally, regionally, and nationally in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, EOGC showed a slower decrease in incidence rate worldwide than IOGC and LOGC, whereas EOGC and LOGC showed slower decreases in mortality than IOGC. The worldwide incidence rate of EOGC was predicted to increase substantially from 2020 to 2035, while that for LOGC was predicted to increase slightly and that for IOGC was predicted to remain stable over the same period. This study revealed significant differences in the burdens and temporal trends of EOGC, IOGC, and LOGC, and highlighted the importance of tailored cancer-control measures in neglected subpopulations, especially in patients with EOGC.

Abstract

Background: Evidence for estimating and predicting the temporal trends of gastric cancer in different age groups is lacking. Methods: Data of early-, intermediate-, and later-onset gastric cancer (EOGC, IOGC, LOGC) was from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The incidences and deaths due to EOGC, IOGC, and LOGC were analyzed by period, sex, geographic location, and sociodemographic incidence. Temporal trends were evaluated by estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The incidences and temporal trends were predicted until 2035. Results: There were substantial differences in the incidence and death rates of the three populations at global, regional and national levels in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, EOGC (EAPC, −0.84) showed a slower decrease in incidence rate worldwide than IOGC (EAPC, −1.77) and LOGC (EAPC, −1.10), whereas EOGC and LOGC showed slower decreases in mortality than IOGC. The worldwide incidence rate of EOGC (EAPC, 1.44) was predicted to increase substantially from 2020 to 2035, while that for LOGC (EAPC, 0.43) was predicted to increase slightly and that for IOGC (EAPC, −0.01) was predicted to remain stable over the same period. Conclusions: This study revealed differences in the burdens and temporal trends of EOGC, IOGC, and LOGC, and highlighted the importance of tailored cancer-control measures in neglected subpopulations, especially in patients with EOGC.

Proton Pump Inhibitors Use and the Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: Evidence from Eleven Epidemiological Studies, Comprising 1.5 Million Individuals

Previous epidemiological studies have shown that proton pump inhibitor (PPI) may modify the risk of pancreatic cancer. We conducted an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies assessing the effect of PPI on pancreatic cancer. PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for studies published between 1 January 2000, and 1 May 2022. We only included studies that assessed exposure to PPI, reported pancreatic cancer outcomes, and provided effect sizes (hazard ratio or odds ratio) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We calculated an adjusted pooled risk ratio (RR) with 95%CIs using the random-effects model. Eleven studies (eight case-control and three cohorts) that reported 51,629 cases of pancreatic cancer were included. PPI was significantly associated with a 63% increased risk of pancreatic cancer (RRadj. 1.63, 95%CI: 1.19-2.22, p = 0.002). Subgroup analysis showed that the pooled RR for rabeprazole and lansoprazole was 4.08 (95%CI: 0.61-26.92) and 2.25 (95%CI: 0.83-6.07), respectively. Moreover, the risk of pancreatic cancer was established for both the Asian (RRadj. 1.37, 95%CI: 0.98-1.81) and Western populations (RRadj.2.76, 95%CI: 0.79-9.56). The findings of this updated meta-analysis demonstrate that the use of PPI was associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer. Future studies are needed to improve the quality of evidence through better verification of PPI status (e.g., patient selection, duration, and dosages), adjusting for possible confounders, and ensuring long-term follow-up.

The comparative burden of brain and central nervous system cancers from 1990 to 2019 between China and the United States and predicting the future burden

Background

Brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers represent a major source of cancer burden in China and the United States. Comparing the two countries' epidemiological features for brain and CNS cancers can help plan interventions and draw lessons.

Methods

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease repository. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and relative risks of cancer burdens were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) models, respectively. Moreover, a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden over the next decade.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the number of incidences, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) increased in China and the US, with a larger increase in China. Age-standardized incidence rates in China and the United States have shown an increasing trend over the past three decades, with AAPCs of 0.84 and 0.16%, respectively. However, the rates of age-standardized mortality and age-standardized DALYs decreased in both countries, with a greater decrease in China. Overall, age trends in cancer burden were similar for males and females, with two peaks in the childhood and elderly groups, respectively. The period and cohort effects on incidence showed an overall increasing trend in China and limited change in the US. However, the period effects for mortality and DALY were decreasing in both countries, while the cohort effects tended to increase and then decrease. Moreover, we predicted that the cancer burdens would continue to rise in China over the next decade.

Conclusion

The burden of brain and CNS cancers is substantial and will continue to increase in China. Comprehensive policy and control measures need to be implemented to reduce the burden.

Global magnitude and temporal trend of mesothelioma burden along with the contribution of occupational asbestos exposure in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Understanding the burden of mesothelioma with the contribution of occupational asbestos exposure globally provides essential foundations for cancer control, policy decisions and resource allocation. Globally, 34,511 incident cases, 29,251 deaths and 668,104 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of mesothelioma were estimated in 2019. The age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality and DALYs all showed a slightly declining trend over the past 30 years, but the latest absolute number of mesothelioma burden almost doubled since 1990. The burden rate decreased among the population aged under 70 years, but increased among the population aged over 80 years, especially in the High socio-demographic index (SDI) region. The burden rate of mesothelioma attributable to asbestos exposure was positively associated with SDI at the national level. This study depicted a continuous increase in mesothelioma burden globally over the past 30 years. Controlling occupational asbestos exposure will reduce the mesothelioma burden, especially for higher SDI regions.

Identification of new FK866 analogues with potent anticancer activity against pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most lethal diseases for which chemotherapy has not been very successful yet. FK866 ((E)-N-(4-(1-benzoylpiperidin-4-yl)butyl)-3-(pyridin-3-yl)acrylamide) is a well-known NAMPT (nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase) inhibitor with anti-cancer activities, but it failed in phase II clinical trials. We found that FK866 shows anti-proliferative activity in three PDAC cell lines, as well as in Jurkat T-cell leukemia cells. More than 50 FK866 analogues were synthesized that introduce substituents on the phenyl ring of the piperidine benzamide group of FK866 and exchange its buta-1,4-diyl tether for 1-oxyprop-3-yl, (E)-but-2-en-1,4-diyl and 2- and 3-carbon tethers. The pyridin-3-yl moiety of FK866 was exchanged for chlorinated and fluorinated analogues and for pyrazin-2-yl and pyridazin-4-yl groups. Several compounds showed low nanomolar or sub-nanomolar cell growth inhibitory activity. Our best cell anti-proliferative compounds were the 2,4,6-trimethoxybenzamide analogue of FK866 ((E)-N-(4-(1-(2,4,6-trimethoxybenzoyl)piperidin-4-yl)butyl)-3-(pyridin-3-yl)acrylamide) (9), the 2,6-dimethoxybenzamide (8) and 2-methoxybenzamide (4), which exhibited an IC50 of 0.16 nM, 0.004 nM and 0.08 nM toward PDAC cells, respectively.

International patterns in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in the last three decades: A joinpoint regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer, as the one of most fatal malignancies, remains a critical issue in the global burden of disease.

AIM

To estimate trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality worldwide in the last three decades.

METHODS

A descriptive epidemiological study was done. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality data were obtained from the database of the World Health Organization. Analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality during 2020 was performed. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100000) were presented. To estimate trends of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, joinpoint regression analysis was used: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated. Additionally, analysis was performed by sex and age. In this paper, the trend analysis included only countries with high and medium data quality.

RESULTS

A total of 495773 (262865 male and 232908 female) new cases and 466003 (246840 male and 219163 female) deaths from pancreatic cancer were reported worldwide in 2020. In both sexes, most of the new cases (191348; 38.6% of the total) and deaths (182074; 39.1% of the total) occurred in the Western Pacific Region. In both sexes, the highest ASRs were found in the European Region, while the lowest rates were reported in the South-East Asia Region. The general pattern of rising pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality was seen across countries worldwide in observed period. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer incidence, females in France and India showed the most marked rise in incidence rates (AAPC = +3.9% and AAPC = +3.7%, respectively). Decreasing incidence trends for pancreatic cancer were observed in some countries, but without significance. Out of all countries with an increase in pancreatic cancer mortality rates, Turkmenistan showed the most marked rise both in males (AAPC = +10.0%, 95%CI: 7.4–12.5) and females (AAPC = +6.4%, 95%CI: 3.5–9.5). The mortality trends of pancreatic cancer were decreasing in both sexes only in Canada and Mexico.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to explain the cause of large international differences in incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in last three decades.

Burden of Lung Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogens from 1990 to 2019 and Projections until 2044 in China

Simple Summary

The disease burden trend of lung cancer that is attributable to occupational carcinogens in China remains unclear. We used the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019 to investigate the related disease burden from 1990 to 2019 and to project the disease burden for the next 25 years. The results indicate that the disease burden of lung cancer that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years.

Abstract

Background: Little is known about trends in the lung cancer burden from the disease that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China. Methods: Data regarding the lung cancer burden that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis and an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis were conducted to estimate the trend of lung cancer burden as a result of occupational carcinogens from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian APC model was used to predict the disease burden until 2044. Results: The average annual percentage changes of age-standardized summary exposure values (SEVs) of occupational lung carcinogens, as well as the age-standardized population attributable fraction (PAF) of lung cancer due to occupational carcinogens, were 0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4–0.5%) and 0.1% (95% CI: 0–0.2%), respectively. In addition, both the joinpoint regression analysis and APC analysis demonstrated significantly increased trends of age-standardized lung cancer mortality (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) as a result of occupational carcinogens. Asbestos and silica accounted for the two most important occupational lung carcinogens in China. The absolute burden is expected to increase, mainly due to population aging and the age-specific rate of illness. Conclusions: The lung cancer burden that could be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years.

Burden, trends, and risk factors for breast cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions until 2034: an up-to-date overview and comparison with those in Japan and South Korea

BACKGROUND

The difference in epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer (BC) across countries is valuable for BC management and prevention. The study evaluated the up-to-date burden, trends, and risk factors of BC in China, Japan and South Korea during 1990-2019 and predicted the BC burden until 2034.

METHODS

Data on incident cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rate (ASR) of BC were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Trend analysis and prediction until 2034 were conducted by estimated annual percentage change and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model, respectively. Besides, the attributable burden to BC risk factors was also estimated.

RESULTS

In 2019, the number of BC incident cases, deaths and DALYs in China were 375,484, 96,306 and 2,957,453, respectively. The ASR of incidence increased, while that of death and DALYs decreased for Chinese females and Japanese and South Korean males during 1990-2019. High body-mass-index (BMI) was the largest contributor to Chinese female BC deaths and DALYs, while alcohol use was the greatest risk factor for Japanese and South Korean as well as Chinese males. The incident cases and deaths were expected to continue increase during 2020-2034 (except for Japanese female incident cases).

CONCLUSIONS

China had the greatest burden of BC among the three countries. Incident cases and deaths of BC were projected to increase over the next 15 years in China, particularly among Chinese males. Effective prevention and management strategies are urgently necessary for BC control in China.

Burden of lung cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify and project the epidemiological trends and the burden of lung cancer in China.

METHODS

We extracted incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of lung cancer in China, between 1990 and 2019, from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2019). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was applied to quantify the trends of lung cancer burden. Furthermore, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project the incidence and mortality in the next decade.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the estimated national number of lung cancer incident cases increased by 224.0% to 832,920, deaths increased by 195.4% to 757,170 and DALYs increased by 146.1% to 17,128,580, respectively. Meanwhile, the ASIR, ASMR and ASDR showed an upward trend (EAPC of 1.33, 0.94 and 0.42, respectively). The ASIR and ASMR among males were about 2 times more than females, but the increase in ASIR in females (EAPC = 2.24) was more obvious than those in males (EAPC = 0.10) from 2020 to 2030. In China, smoking remained responsible for the highest burden of lung cancer, but the contribution of ambient particulate matter pollution to DALYs increased from 10.6% in 1990 to 22.5% in 2019 in total population. Moreover, we predicted that the number of deaths from lung cancer will increase by 42.7% in China by 2030.

CONCLUSION

In China, the burden of lung cancer has been increasing over the past three decades, which highlights more targeted intervention measures are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer.

Disease burden and long-term trends of urinary tract infections: A worldwide report

Background

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are one of the most common infections worldwide, but little is known about their global scale and long-term trends. We aimed to estimate the spatiotemporal patterns of UTIs' burden along with its attributable risk factors at a global level, as well as the variations of the burdens according to socio-demographic status, regions, nations, sexes, and ages, which may be helpful in guiding targeted prevention and treatment programs.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 were analyzed to depict the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of UTIs in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by socio-demographic status, nations, region, sex, and age.

Results

Globally, 404.61 million cases, 236,790 deaths, and 520,200 DALYs were estimated in 2019. In particular, 2.4 times growth in deaths from 1990 to 2019 was observed, along with an increasing age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) from 2.77/100,000 to 3.13/100,000. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was consistently pronounced in regions with higher socio-demographic index (SDI), which presented remarkable upward trends in ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). In contrast, countries with a low SDI or high baseline burden achieved a notable decline in burden rates over the past three decades. Although the ASIR was 3.6-fold higher in females than males, there was no sex-based difference in ASMR and ASDR. The burden rate typically increased with age, and the annual increasing trend was more obvious for people over 60 years, especially in higher SDI regions.

Conclusions

The burden of UTIs showed variations according to socio-demographic status, nation, region, sex, and age in the last three decades. The overall increasing burden intimates that proper prevention and treatment efforts should be strengthened, especially in high-income regions and aging societies.

The Influence of MicroRNA-31 on Oxidative Stress and Radiosensitivity in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Radioresistance remains a significant challenge in treating pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), contributing to the poor survival rates of this cancer. MicroRNAs (miRs) are small non-coding RNA molecules that may play an essential role in regulating radioresistance by altering the levels of oxidative stress. In this study, we investigated the role and potential mechanisms linking miR-31 to PDAC radioresistance. A pCMV-miR vector containing a miR-31 mimic was stably expressed into a miR-31-deficient PDAC cell line, BxPC-3. Additionally, a pmiRZip lentivector suppressing miR-31 was stably expressed in a miR-31 abundant PDAC cell line, Panc-1. Clonogenic assays were conducted to explore the role of miR-31 manipulation on radiosensitivity. Fluorometric ROS assays were performed to quantify ROS levels. The expression of potential miR-31 targets was measured by Western blot analysis. It was found that the manipulation of miR-31 altered the radiosensitivity in PDAC cells by regulating oxidative stress. Using online bioinformatics tools, we identified the 3′UTR of GPx8 as a predicted target of miR-31. Our study demonstrates, for the first time, that manipulating miR-31 alters GPx8 expression, regulating ROS detoxification and promoting either a radioresistant or radiosensitive phenotype. MiR-31 may represent a promising therapeutic target for altering radiosensitivity in PDAC cells.

Changes in the disease burden of breast cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019 and its projections: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

To investigate the secular trends in breast cancer burden with attributable risk factors, and make projections over time, which would contribute to the control and prevention of breast cancer.

METHODS

We extracted detailed data on breast cancer incident cases and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), deaths and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), as well as the attributable risk factors in China from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the changing trends. The national DALYs attributable to Socio-demographic Index (SDI) values were also presented. Projections to 2030 were estimated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the number of breast cancer incident cases increased fourfold to 375,484, with deaths and DALYs over doubling to 96.306 and 2,957,454, respectively. The ASIR (EAPC = 2.84; 95% CI, 2.74-2.95) and ASMR (EAPC = 0.06; 95% CI, 0.00-0.12) increased, while the ASDR decreased with the EAPC of -0.13 (95% CI, -0.19 to -0.06) at the same period. The ASDR varied across provincial regions, which appeared to be in a wave-like upcurve with SDI values increasing. High body mass index became the first contribution to breast cancer DALYs for females in 2019, and alcohol use for males. Breast Cancer incident cases and deaths would increase to 587.7 and 125.6 thousand in 2030, of which there will be 577.1 and 122.7 thousand for females, and 10.6 and 2.9 thousand for males, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Breast cancer remains a major public health problem in China. The absolute burden has been increasing over time, and varied across sex and regions. To control the potential risk factors and develop specific strategies will help to reduce the disease burden.

Global Trends in Mortality and Burden of Stroke Attributable to Lead Exposure From 1990 to 2019

Background

Lead exposure is an important risk factor for stroke. However, the latest global spatiotemporal patterns of lead exposure-related stroke burden were unclear. In this study, we assessed this topic.

Methods

The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2019). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was estimated to evaluate the temporal trends of the age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates (ASMR and ASDR) of stroke attributable to lead exposure.

Results

In 2019, the numbers of global stroke deaths and DALYs attributable to lead exposure were 305.27 and 6738.78 thousand, respectively. The corresponding ASMR and ASDR were highest in males, the elderly population, low and middle-income countries, and the intracerebral hemorrhage subtype. From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR and ASDR of global stroke attributable to lead exposure decreased [ASMR: EAPC = −1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI): (−1.57, −1.10); ASDR: EAPC = −1.74, 95% CI: (−1.95, −1.52)], especially in females, the high-income countries, and the subarachnoid hemorrhage subtype.

Conclusion

This study emphasizes the importance of continued implementation of lead exposure prevention strategies and improved high-efficiency treatment and stroke acute health care, especially in low and middle-income countries.