Unravelling the functional and phylogenetic dimensions of novel ecosystem assemblages

Human activities are causing taxonomic rearrangements across ecosystems that often result in the emergence of novel communities (assemblies with no historical representative). It is commonly assumed that these changes in the taxonomic makeup of ecosystems also inevitably lead to changes in other aspects of biodiversity, namely functional and phylogenetic diversity. However, this assumption is not always valid, as the changes in functional and phylogenetic composition resulting from taxonomic shifts depend on the level of redundancy in the evaluated community. Therefore, we need improved theoretical frameworks to predict when we can expect coordinated or decoupled responses among these three facets of biodiversity. To advance this understanding, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues that complicate establishing a link between taxonomic rearrangements driven by human activities and the associated functional and phylogenetic changes. Here, we show that is crucial to consider the expected changes in functional and phylogenetic composition as communities are reshaped owing to human drivers of biodiversity loss to forecast the impacts of novel assemblages on ecosystem functions and the services they provide to humanity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Uplifting local ecological knowledge as part of adaptation pathways to wildfire risk reduction: A case study in Montseny, Catalonia (Spain)

Living with wildfires in an era of climate change requires adaptation and weaving together many forms of knowledge. Empirical evidence of knowledge co-production in wildfire management is lacking in Mediterranean European areas. We explored how local ecological knowledge can be leveraged to reduce wildfire risk through an adaptation pathways process in the Montseny massif and wider Tordera River watershed of Catalonia, Spain: an area stewarded through forestry and agriculture, tourism, nature conservation, and fire management. We combined different methods (e.g., a timeline and Three Horizons framework) throughout three workshops with agents of change to co-create adaptation pathways to reduce wildfire risk, integrating a historical perspective of the landscape while envisioning desirable futures. Our results showed that local ecological knowledge and other soft adaptation strategies contribute to innovative sustainable development initiatives that can also mitigate wildfire risk. The adaptation pathways approach holds much potential to inform local policies and support wildfire-based community initiatives in diverse contexts.

Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process

Equity is core to sustainability, but current interventions to enhance sustainability often fall short in adequately addressing this linkage. Models are important tools for informing action, and their development and use present opportunities to center equity in process and outcomes. This Perspective highlights progress in integrating equity into systems modeling in sustainability science, as well as key challenges, tensions, and future directions. We present a conceptual framework for equity in systems modeling, focused on its distributional, procedural, and recognitional dimensions. We discuss examples of how modelers engage with these different dimensions throughout the modeling process and from across a range of modeling approaches and topics, including water resources, energy systems, air quality, and conservation. Synthesizing across these examples, we identify significant advances in enhancing procedural and recognitional equity by reframing models as tools to explore pluralism in worldviews and knowledge systems; enabling models to better represent distributional inequity through new computational techniques and data sources; investigating the dynamics that can drive inequities by linking different modeling approaches; and developing more nuanced metrics for assessing equity outcomes. We also identify important future directions, such as an increased focus on using models to identify pathways to transform underlying conditions that lead to inequities and move toward desired futures. By looking at examples across the diverse fields within sustainability science, we argue that there are valuable opportunities for mutual learning on how to use models more effectively as tools to support sustainable and equitable futures.

Mainstreaming nature-based solutions through five forms of scaling: Case of the Kiiminkijoki River basin, Finland

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are considered as means to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss while simultaneously enhancing human well-being. Yet, it is still poorly understood how NBS could be mainstreamed. We address this gap by proposing a framework on NBS and employing it in Finland's Kiiminkijoki River basin through participatory workshops and a questionnaire. We examine socio-environmental challenges and visions, existing and emerging NBS to reach the visions, and ways to scale-up NBS to a river basin level. In the river basin, water quality is the priority challenge, due to its relationships with local culture, climate change, and biodiversity. Our results consider how (1) to ensure the relevance of NBS for local actors, (2) instrumental, intrinsic, and relational value perspectives can be enhanced simultaneously by NBS, and (3) site specific NBS can be mainstreamed (i.e., by scaling up, down, out, in, deep) to the river basin level and beyond.

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social-ecological transformations

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions are already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental challenges with disruptive social changes-the Anthropocene condition-is not new. From food-producing hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to urban industrial food systems, the current planetary entanglement has its roots in millennia of evolving and accumulating sociocultural capabilities for shaping the cultured environments that our societies have always lived in (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative capabilities to shape environments are coupled with sociocultural adaptations enabling societies to more effectively shape and live in transformed environments, the social-ecological scales and intensities of these transformations can accelerate through a positive feedback loop of 'runaway sociocultural niche construction'. Efforts to achieve a better future for both people and planet will depend on guiding this runaway evolutionary process towards better outcomes by redirecting Earth's most disruptive force of nature: the power of human aspirations. To guide this unprecedented planetary force, cultural narratives that appeal to human aspirations for a better future will be more effective than narratives of environmental crisis and overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Process-based modeling for ecosystem service provisioning: Non-linear responses to restoration efforts in a quarry lake under climate change

Healthy freshwater ecosystems can provide vital ecosystem services (ESs), and this capacity may be hampered due to water quality deterioration and climate change. In the currently available ES modeling tools, ecosystem processes are either absent or oversimplified, hindering the evaluation of impacts of restoration measures on ES provisioning. In this study, we propose an ES modeling tool that integrates lake physics, ecology and service provisioning into a holistic modeling framework. We applied this model to a Dutch quarry lake, to evaluate how nine ESs respond to technological-based (phosphorus (P) reduction) and nature-based measures (wetland restoration). As climate change might be affecting the future effectiveness of restoration efforts, we also studied the climate change impacts on the outcome of restoration measures and provisioning of ESs, using climate scenarios for the Netherlands in 2050. Our results indicate that both phosphorus reduction and wetland restoration mitigated eutrophication symptoms, resulting in increased oxygen concentrations and water transparency, and decreased phytoplankton biomass. Delivery of most ESs was improved, including swimming, P retention, and macrophyte habitat, whereas the ES provisioning that required a more productive system was impaired (sport fishing and bird watching). However, our modeling results suggested hampered effectiveness of restoration measures upon exposure to future climate conditions, which may require intensification of restoration efforts in the future to meet restoration targets. Importantly, ESs provisioning showed non-linear responses to increasing intensity of restoration measures, indicating that effectiveness of restoration measures does not necessarily increase proportionally. In conclusion, the ecosystem service modeling framework proposed in this study, provides a holistic evaluation of lake restoration measures on ecosystem services provisioning, and can contribute to development of climate-robust management strategies.

Knowledge coproduction to improve assessments of nature's contributions to people

Sustainability science needs new approaches to produce, share, and use knowledge because there are major barriers to translating research into policy and practice. Multiple actors hold relevant knowledge for sustainability including indigenous and local people who have developed over generations knowledge, methods, and practices that biodiversity and ecosystem assessments need to capture. Despite efforts to mainstream knowledge coproduction, less than 3% of the literature on nature's contributions to people (NCP) integrates indigenous and local knowledge (ILK). Approaches and tools to better integrate scientific and ILK knowledge systems in NCP assessments are urgently needed. To fill this gap, we conducted interviews with ILK experts from Abancay and Tamburco, Peru, and convened focus groups and workshops during which participatory mapping, a serious game, a Bayesian belief network based on ILK were introduced. We inventoried 60 medicinal plants used to treat different illnesses, and analyzed the spatial distribution of the 7 plants that contribute the most to a good quality of life, and delineated their nonmedicinal uses. Based on the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services conceptual framework, we defined dimensions of a good quality of life according to indigenous and local worldviews. Medicinal plants contributed strongly to health and household security, among other contributions. Climate change and overexploitation were the main perceived threats to medicinal plants, despite the existence of formal and customary institutions to regulate trade. Our approach was flexible enough to integrate diverse forms of knowledge, as well as qualitative and quantitative information from, for example, the Bayesian belief network.

Stratification of stakeholders for participation in the governance of coastal social-ecological systems

Knowledge co-production has become part of an evolution of participatory and transdisciplinary research approaches that are increasingly important for achieving sustainability. To effectively involve the most appropriate stakeholders there is a need for engagement and increasing prominence of stakeholders in environmental management and governance processes. The paper aims at developing and testing a methodology for stratifying stakeholders by (i) classifying organisations involved in coastal and ocean governance by their agency, and (ii) grouping them into organisational archetypes for representation and selection in research processes. Agency was measured by the three dimensions of scale, resources, and power. Each dimension was further elaborated as a set of indicators. The methodology is applied in the context of a research project set in Algoa Bay, South Africa. The stratification of organisations enabled the research team to gain a better understanding of the stakeholder landscape of organisational agency, and thus identify the most relevant stakeholder with which to engage. The use of a hierarchical cluster analysis identified five organisational archetypes in relation to ocean and coastal governance in Algoa Bay. The methodology used in this study proposes an informed and intentional approach to create the conditions under which the co-production of and participation in research processes can take place.

Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science

Storylines are introduced in climate science to provide unity of discourse, integrate the physical and socioeconomic components of phenomena, and make climate evolution more tangible. The use of this concept by multiple scholar communities and the novelty of some of its applications renders the concept ambiguous nonetheless, because the term hides behind a wide range of purposes, understandings, and methodologies. This semi-systematic literature review identifies three approaches that use storylines as a keystone concept: scenarios-familiar for their use in IPCC reports-discourse-analytical approaches, and physical climate storylines. After screening peer-reviewed articles that mention climate and storylines, 270 articles are selected, with 158, 55, and 57 in each category. The results indicate that each scholarly community works with a finite and different set of methods and diverging understandings. Moreover, these approaches have received criticism in their assembly of storylines: either for lacking explicitness or for the homogeneity of expertise involved. This article proposes that cross-pollination among the approaches can improve the usefulness and usability of climate-related storylines. Among good practices are the involvement of a broader range of scientific disciplines and expertise, use of mixed-methods, assessment of storylines against a wider set of quality criteria, and targeted stakeholder participation in key stages of the process.

Diverse approaches to nature recovery are needed to meet the varied needs of people and nature

Conservation and restoration projects often fail to engage local communities during the planning and implementation stage. In addition, when considering urban boundary ecosystems, there exists a wide range of stakeholders that must be involved in the planning process to ensure social equity in land management outcomes. Traditional methods for assessing future landscape change scenarios have been critiqued for their inability to adequately incorporate the diverse range of stakeholder values. This paper presents a multicriteria mapping study, incorporating a novel application of the Nature Futures Framework, to assess nature recovery scenarios on Brighton and Hove's Downland Estate-an urban boundary landscape surrounding the city of Brighton and Hove in Sussex, South East England. We focus on two key research outcomes. First, we assess the perceived performance of alternative nature recovery options across Nature Future value perspectives and between contrasting stakeholder groups. Second, by mapping stakeholder values from our multicriteria mapping study, we demonstrate that the Nature Futures Framework provides a robust framework within which to assess the diverse values stakeholders hold for land use change. We propose that utilizing the Nature Futures Framework, in combination with the multicriteria mapping interview technique, can form a valuable tool to elicit stakeholder values that may have been hidden, or underrepresented in traditional assessment methods, and to compare the perceived performance of alternative nature recovery scenarios between stakeholder groups.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01337-w.

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that "By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of "living in harmony with nature" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.

Ecosystem services as systemic enablers for transformation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: an analytical synthesis

Centre-staging ecosystem services within development paradigms can improve understanding on the flow of benefits from nature to human societies across time, scale and geographies, and trigger well-being-oriented societal and policy responses in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region. This region is amongst the world's most biodiverse, has high-value nature-society interactions, supports one-fourth of humanity and faces several developmental challenges. An assessment of the existing evidence establishes that substantial benefits and values can be gained by nurturing the relationship between ecosystems and socio-economic systems. Mainstreaming ecosystem services in the development agenda helps address poverty and intersectionality, preserves culture and heritage, and enables holistic transformation in the region. The Nature Futures Framework of the IPBES is used to develop and apply an analytical framework for the region, in which ecosystem service-oriented action pathways are considered to be relevant and feasible for attaining sustainability. Three pathways, labelled as Prevention, Restoration and Development innovation, incorporate strategies and actions that mainstream ecosystem services and uphold the multiple values placed on nature by society. Illustrations are used to demonstrate the significant potential for policy action in creating positive impacts on both nature and society with the adoption of a Nature Futures framing for the region. The region has the potential to demonstrate the operationalisation of an integrated framework for nurturing nature-people relationships, in the pursuit of transformative change as envisioned under the sustainable development agenda. Ecosystem services can enable such transformative change, acting as triggers for action that mainstream nature into developmental decision-making.

Leveraging plural valuations of mangroves for climate interventions in Indonesia

Mangrove forests are globally significant blue carbon sinks that remain critically under-governed and under threat. In Indonesia, the rapid rate of mangrove loss over the past three decades, combined with the promise of these carbon-dense ecosystems to mitigate climate change impacts, has catalyzed the world's largest replanting program. Institutional and ideological divisions between advocates of conservation and commodification approaches to mangrove governance, however, have historically compromised Indonesia's ability to meet its climate commitments. Market valuations of mangroves as blue carbon have further complicated their governance by opening up new opportunities for environmental collaboration and resource exploitation. Drawing on the concept of leverage points, this study examines how plural valuations of mangroves might be applied to sustainability interventions in Riau Province, Indonesia. Using document analysis and interviews with public, private and societal stakeholders, we examine how sector-level values translate into collaborative actions through mangrove partnerships. We posit that integrating indigenous knowledge and place-based values into mangrove policy development could help to address the existing conservation-commodification divide. As plural values are mutually transformative, we argue that recognizing areas of strategic compatibility creates space for flexible and adaptive cross-sector cooperation. Such recognition is especially important for mangrove communities, whose marginal socioeconomic position reinforces their need to remain ideologically and tactfully open to areas of compatibility with shifting market valuations, both to sustainably develop locally important resources and to avoid livelihood capture by predatory development interests.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01297-1.

The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss

Effective policies to halt biodiversity loss require knowing which anthropogenic drivers are the most important direct causes. Whereas previous knowledge has been limited in scope and rigor, here we statistically synthesize empirical comparisons of recent driver impacts found through a wide-ranging review. We show that land/sea use change has been the dominant direct driver of recent biodiversity loss worldwide. Direct exploitation of natural resources ranks second and pollution third; climate change and invasive alien species have been significantly less important than the top two drivers. The oceans, where direct exploitation and climate change dominate, have a different driver hierarchy from land and fresh water. It also varies among types of biodiversity indicators. For example, climate change is a more important driver of community composition change than of changes in species populations. Stopping global biodiversity loss requires policies and actions to tackle all the major drivers and their interactions, not some of them in isolation.

Recognizing, normalizing and articulating: An approach to highlight plural values of water ecosystem services in Colombia

The dialectical relationship between ecosystems and society is complex; therefore, holistic approaches are required to address this complexity. This view also stands out in the ecosystem services valuation field, where different scholars and global platforms have drawn attention to the need to incorporate plural valuation initiatives at decision-making. In this sense, through a comprehensive design, we conducted a multi-layered valuation of ecosystem services, and we highlighted multiple values in two areas of the province of Caldas, Colombia. We proposed a three-phase valuation process called Recognizing, Normalizing and Articulating values. Then, in cooperation with the regional environmental authority, we obtained different water-related ecosystem services values. Our results showed some warnings: first, we found mismatches between ecosystem services values; second, people assigned high values to ecosystems but the actual capacity of ecosystems to support ES is low. Finally, monetary values were marginal compared to social and ecological values. We conclude by saying that the more strata are assessed, the more values appear in the valuation scenarios, and those values could be conflicting. Our results have political implications, since they highlight the need to incorporate plural values as a fundamental tool for planning and land use in real scenarios where conflicts of interest and values are evident.

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Plural valuation of ecosystem services is a field in construction and we add methodological insights.

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We provided a multilayered-valuation of ecosystem services to elicit plural values related to water.

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We used a pragmatic philosophy following a multimethod research design with a mixed-approach.

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Water ecosystem services have different values and we proved in two areas from Colombia.

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The more layers unfolded, the more values found according to our approach.

Making waves: Lessons learned from the COVID-19 anthropause in the Netherlands on urban aquatic ecosystem services provisioning and management

The anomalous past two years of the COVID-19 pandemic have been a test of human response to global crisis management as typical human activities were significantly altered. The COVID-instigated anthropause has illustrated the influence that humans and the biosphere have on each other, especially given the variety of national mobility interventions that have been implemented globally. These local COVID-19-era restrictions influenced human-ecosystem interactions through changes in accessibility of water systems and changes in ecosystem service demand. Four urban aquatic case studies in the Netherlands demonstrated shifts in human demand during the anthropause. For instance, reduced boat traffic in Amsterdam canals led to improved water clarity. In comparison, ongoing service exploitation from increased recreational fishing, use of bathing waters and national parks visitation are heightening concerns about potential ecosystem degradation. We distilled management lessons from both the case studies as well as from recent literature pertaining to ecological intactness and social relevance. Equally important to the lessons themselves, however, is the pace at which informed management practices are established after the pandemic ends, particularly as many communities currently recognize the importance of aquatic ecosystems and are amenable to their protection.

An Integrated Landscape–Seascape Approach in the Making: Facilitating Multi-Stakeholder Partnership for Socio-Ecological Revitalisation in Eastern Coastal Taiwan (2016–2021)

Over the past decade, integrated landscape (–seascape) approaches—IL(S)As—have been gaining prominence as holistic, collaborative, and tangible solutions to biodiversity conservation and sustainability challenges. On-the-ground implementation of IL(S)As, however, is a complex task. The Xinshe “Forest–River–Village–Ocean” Eco-Agriculture Initiative (the Xinshe Initiative), established in October 2016 and facilitated by the authors, is an ILSA aimed at the socio-ecological revitalisation of the Xinshe ridge-to-reef landscape–seascape in eastern coastal Taiwan. The objective of this paper is to summarise and demonstrate our experiences with facilitating the Xinshe Initiative over the five-year period (2016–2021). This is a case study participatory action research based on mixed qualitative methods of data collection and analysis. Research findings reveal the importance of: (1) locally sensitive boundary setting and checking by the means of inclusive and participatory processes; (2) various facilitation tools and engagement strategies for the continuity of multi-stakeholder interest and engagement; (3) five socio-ecological perspectives of the Satoyama Initiative for determining environmental and socio-economic objectives; (4) regular, consistent, and locally sensitive monitoring and evaluation tools for the effectiveness of adaptive co-management; and (5) enabling conditions (relational, knowledge, and political resources) for promoting the Xinshe ILSA-related experiences “from -scape to scale”.

Impact of urbanization on the food-water-land-ecosystem nexus: A study of Shenzhen, China

The food-water-land-ecosystem (FWLE) nexus is fundamental for achieving sustainable development. This study examines the influence of urbanization on the FWLE nexus. Toward this end, land was deemed as an entry point. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on the nexus was explored based on changes in land use. We selected Shenzhen, a city in China, as the study area. First, a land change modeler was employed to analyze historical land-use changes from 2000 to 2010, to build transition potential submodels, and to project future land-use patterns for 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. Second, based on land-use maps, we assessed habitat quality, water yield, and water supply from 2000 to 2030 using Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs. Moreover, crop production was estimated according to statistical materials. Finally, the study presents the analyses and discussion of the impacts of urbanization on ecosystem services related to the FWLE nexus. The results of land-use changes indicated that a significant expansion of artificial surfaces occurred in Shenzhen with varying degrees of decrease in cultivated land, forest, and grassland. Furthermore, habitat quality, water supply, and crop production decreased evidently due to rapid urbanization. In contrast, the total water yield indicated an upward trend owing to the increased water yield from increasing artificial surfaces, whereas water yield from other land-use areas declined, such as the forest and grassland. The results demonstrated a significant positive correlation between artificial surfaces and total water yield. However, negative correlations were observed in the interaction among habitat quality, water supply, and crop production. The study presented temporal and spatial assessments to provide an effective and convenient means of exploring the interactions and tradeoffs within the FWLE nexus, which, thus, contributed to the sustainable transformation of urbanization.

A global agenda for advancing freshwater biodiversity research

Global freshwater biodiversity is declining dramatically, and meeting the challenges of this crisis requires bold goals and the mobilisation of substantial resources. While the reasons are varied, investments in both research and conservation of freshwater biodiversity lag far behind those in the terrestrial and marine realms. Inspired by a global consultation, we identify 15 pressing priority needs, grouped into five research areas, in an effort to support informed stewardship of freshwater biodiversity. The proposed agenda aims to advance freshwater biodiversity research globally as a critical step in improving coordinated actions towards its sustainable management and conservation.

Balancing conservation priorities for nature and for people in Europe

There is an urgent need to protect key areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people (NCP). However, different values of nature are rarely considered together in conservation planning. Here, we explore potential priority areas in Europe for biodiversity (all terrestrial vertebrates) and a set of cultural and regulating NCP while considering demand for these NCP. We quantify the spatial overlap between these priorities and their performance in representing different values of nature. We show that different priorities rarely coincide, except in certain irreplaceable ecosystems. Notably, priorities for biodiversity better represent NCP than the reverse. Theoretically, protecting an extra 5% of land has the potential to double conservation gains for biodiversity while also maintaining some essential NCP, leading to co-benefits for both nature and people.

A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan

The evolution of long-term sustainable societies is closely connected to the transformation of the physical built environment in which those societies operate. In this paper, we present a comprehensive set of narratives for the built environment in Japan, consistent with the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) framework, to assess the future evolution of the adaptation and mitigation challenges. We focus on the linkage between sustainability factors and human living environments including urban form, buildings, and basic infrastructures. We introduce a new, sixth narrative to the SSPs, an alternative interpretation of SSP1. Whereas the original SSP1 assumes high societal and environmental sustainability combined with relatively high economic growth, the SSP1 variant does not highly rely on economic growth and is oriented towards a lower and more locally oriented consumption lifestyle. Nature-based solutions are integrated and examined in the new SSP1 narrative, which is aligned with the adaptation to the digital era with freedom of location. Recent global crises such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate the transformation of societies. Therefore, this study attempts to imply the benefits and trade-offs of alternative pathways for the built environment.

Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework

Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework.