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Brookman-May SD, Buyse M, Freedland SJ, Miladinovic B, Zhang K, Fendler WP, Feng F, Sartor O, Sweeney CJ. Challenges and Opportunities in Establishing Appropriate Intermediate Endpoints Reflecting Patient Benefit: A Roadmap for Research and Clinical Application in Nonmetastatic Prostate Cancer. Eur Urol 2024:S0302-2838(24)02348-0. [PMID: 38762392 DOI: 10.1016/j.eururo.2024.04.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2023] [Revised: 04/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/22/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
Defining meaningful endpoints for research of early-stage high-risk prostate cancer is challenging, with established measures such as overall survival and metastasis-free survival facing limitations related to feasibility and adequate reflection of patient relevance. Developing endpoints must cater to diverse perspectives across scientific, clinical, regulatory, and patient viewpoints. Endpoints such as pathological complete response, no evidence of disease, and prevention of prostate-specific antigen relapse may reflect patient benefit by accounting for diagnostic and treatment burdens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sabine D Brookman-May
- Department of Urology, Ludwig-Maximilians University Munich, Munich, Germany; Janssen Research and Development, Spring House, PA, USA.
| | - Marc Buyse
- Data Science Institute, Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-Biostat), University of Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium; International Drug Development Institute, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
| | - Stephen J Freedland
- Department of Urology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA; Section of Urology, Durham VA Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA
| | | | - Ke Zhang
- Janssen Research and Development, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Wolfgang P Fendler
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, University of Duisburg-Essen and German Cancer Consortium (DKTK)-University Hospital Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Felix Feng
- Department of Medicine, UCSF, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Urology, UCSF, San Francisco, CA, USA; Department of Radiation Oncology, UCSF, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | | | - Christopher J Sweeney
- South Australian Immunogenomics Cancer Institute, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
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2
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Espinosa-Pereiro J, Alagna R, Saluzzo F, González-Moreno J, Heinrich N, Sánchez-Montalvá A, Cirillo DM. A Systematic Review of Potential Biomarkers for Bacterial Burden and Treatment Efficacy Assessment in Tuberculosis Platform-Based Clinical Trials. J Infect Dis 2024; 229:1584-1595. [PMID: 37956107 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiad482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Revised: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 10/27/2023] [Indexed: 11/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Adaptive platform trials can be more efficient than classic trials for developing new treatments. Moving from culture-based to simpler- or faster-to-measure biomarkers as efficacy surrogates may enhance this advantage. We performed a systematic review of treatment efficacy biomarkers in adults with tuberculosis. Platform trials can span different development phases. We grouped biomarkers as: α, bacterial load estimates used in phase 2a trials; β, early and end-of treatment end points, phase 2b-c trials; γ, posttreatment or trial-level estimates, phase 2c-3 trials. We considered as analysis unit (biomarker entry) each combination of biomarker, predicted outcome, and their respective measurement times or intervals. Performance metrics included: sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC), and correlation measures, and classified as poor, promising, or good. Eighty-six studies included 22 864 participants. From 1356 biomarker entries, 318 were reported with the performance metrics of interest, with 103 promising and 41 good predictors. Group results were: α, mycobacterial RNA and lipoarabinomannan (LAM) in sputum, and host metabolites in urine; β, mycobacterial RNA and host transcriptomic or cytokine signatures for early treatment response; and γ, host transcriptomics for recurrence. A combination of biomarkers from different categories could help in designing more efficient platform trials. Efforts to develop efficacy surrogates should be better coordinated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juan Espinosa-Pereiro
- Infectious Diseases Department, Vall d'Hebrón University Hospital, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- International Health Program, Catalan Institute of Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Infeccioass, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Riccardo Alagna
- San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy
- Qiagen, Srl, Milan, Italy
| | | | | | - Norbert Heinrich
- Center for International Health, University Hospital, Ludwig Maximilian University Munich, Munich, Germany
- German Center for Infection Research, Munich, Germany
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, University Hospital, Ludwig Maximilian University Munich (DZIF), Partner Site Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Adrián Sánchez-Montalvá
- Infectious Diseases Department, Vall d'Hebrón University Hospital, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- International Health Program, Catalan Institute of Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Infeccioass, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
- Grupo de Estudio de Micobacterias, Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica, Madrid, Spain
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Proper JL, Chu H, Prajapati P, Sonksen MD, Murray TA. Network meta analysis to predict the efficacy of an approved treatment in a new indication. Res Synth Methods 2024; 15:242-256. [PMID: 38044545 DOI: 10.1002/jrsm.1683] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Revised: 08/10/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/05/2023]
Abstract
Drug repurposing refers to the process of discovering new therapeutic uses for existing medicines. Compared to traditional drug discovery, drug repurposing is attractive for its speed, cost, and reduced risk of failure. However, existing approaches for drug repurposing involve complex, computationally-intensive analytical methods that are not widely used in practice. Instead, repurposing decisions are often based on subjective judgments from limited empirical evidence. In this article, we develop a novel Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) framework that can predict the efficacy of an approved treatment in a new indication and thereby identify candidate treatments for repurposing. We obtain predictions using two main steps: first, we use standard NMA modeling to estimate average relative effects from a network comprised of treatments studied in both indications in addition to one treatment studied in only one indication. Then, we model the correlation between relative effects using various strategies that differ in how they model treatments across indications and within the same drug class. We evaluate the predictive performance of each model using a simulation study and find that the model minimizing root mean squared error of the posterior median for the candidate treatment depends on the amount of available data, the level of correlation between indications, and whether treatment effects differ, on average, by drug class. We conclude by discussing an illustrative example in psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis and find that the candidate treatment has a high probability of success in a future trial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer L Proper
- Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
| | - Haitao Chu
- Statistical Research and Data Science Center, Pfizer Inc, New York, New York, USA
| | - Purvi Prajapati
- Statistical Innovation Center, Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Michael D Sonksen
- Statistical Innovation Center, Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA
| | - Thomas A Murray
- Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
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Collier W, Haaland B, Inker LA, Heerspink HJL, Greene T. Comparing Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression methods and evaluating the influence of priors for evaluations of surrogate endpoints on heterogeneous collections of clinical trials. BMC Med Res Methodol 2024; 24:39. [PMID: 38365599 PMCID: PMC10870489 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02170-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Surrogate endpoints, such as those of interest in chronic kidney disease (CKD), are often evaluated using Bayesian meta-regression. Trials used for the analysis can evaluate a variety of interventions for different sub-classifications of disease, which can introduce two additional goals in the analysis. The first is to infer the quality of the surrogate within specific trial subgroups defined by disease or intervention classes. The second is to generate more targeted subgroup-specific predictions of treatment effects on the clinical endpoint. METHODS Using real data from a collection of CKD trials and a simulation study, we contrasted surrogate endpoint evaluations under different hierarchical Bayesian approaches. Each approach we considered induces different assumptions regarding the relatedness (exchangeability) of trials within and between subgroups. These include partial-pooling approaches, which allow subgroup-specific meta-regressions and, yet, facilitate data adaptive information sharing across subgroups to potentially improve inferential precision. Because partial-pooling models come with additional parameters relative to a standard approach assuming one meta-regression for the entire set of studies, we performed analyses to understand the impact of the parameterization and priors with the overall goals of comparing precision in estimates of subgroup-specific meta-regression parameters and predictive performance. RESULTS In the analyses considered, partial-pooling approaches to surrogate endpoint evaluation improved accuracy of estimation of subgroup-specific meta-regression parameters relative to fitting separate models within subgroups. A random rather than fixed effects approach led to reduced bias in estimation of meta-regression parameters and in prediction in subgroups where the surrogate was strong. Finally, we found that subgroup-specific meta-regression posteriors were robust to use of constrained priors under the partial-pooling approach, and that use of constrained priors could facilitate more precise prediction for clinical effects in trials of a subgroup not available for the initial surrogacy evaluation. CONCLUSION Partial-pooling modeling strategies should be considered for surrogate endpoint evaluation on collections of heterogeneous studies. Fitting these models comes with additional complexity related to choosing priors. Constrained priors should be considered when using partial-pooling models when the goal is to predict the treatment effect on the clinical endpoint.
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Affiliation(s)
- Willem Collier
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
| | - Benjamin Haaland
- Department Population Health Sciences, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
- Pentara Corporation, Millcreek, UT, USA
| | - Lesley A Inker
- Division of Nephrology, Tufts University Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Hiddo J L Heerspink
- Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacology, Department of Nephrology, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Tom Greene
- Department Population Health Sciences, University of Utah School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
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Bartoszko JJ, Gutiérrez García M, Díaz Martínez JP, Yegorov S, Brignardello-Petersen R, Mertz D, Thabane L, Loeb M. Conduct and reporting of multivariate network meta-analyses: a scoping review. J Clin Epidemiol 2024; 166:111238. [PMID: 38081440 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.111238] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2023] [Revised: 12/03/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/06/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Combining multivariate and network meta-analysis methods simultaneously in a multivariate network meta-analysis (MVNMA) provides the methodological framework to analyze the largest amount of evidence relevant to decision-makers (i.e., from indirect evidence and correlated outcomes). The objectives of this scoping review were to summarize the characteristics of MVNMAs published in the health sciences literature and map the methodological guidance available for MVNMA. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature from inception to 28 August 2023, along with citations of included studies, for quantitative evidence syntheses that applied MVNMA and articles addressing MVNMA methods. Pairs of reviewers independently screened potentially eligible studies. Collected data included bibliographic, methodological, and analytical characteristics of included studies. We reported results as total numbers, frequencies, and percentages for categorical variables and medians and interquartile ranges for continuous variables that were not normally distributed. RESULTS After screening 1,075 titles and abstracts, and 112 full texts, we included 38 unique studies, of which, 10 were quantitative evidence syntheses that applied MVNMA and 28 were articles addressing MVNMA methods. Among the 10 MVNMAs, the first was published in 2013, four used studies identified from already published systematic reviews, and eight addressed pharmacological interventions, which were the most common interventions. They evaluated interventions for metastatic melanoma, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, oral hygiene, disruptive behavior disorders, rheumatoid arthritis, narcolepsy, type 2 diabetes, and overactive bladder syndrome. Five MVNMAs analyzed two outcomes simultaneously, and four MVNMAs analyzed three outcomes simultaneously. Among the articles addressing MVNMA methods, the first was published in 2007 and the majority provided methodological frameworks for conducting MVNMAs (26/28, 93%). One study proposed criteria to standardize reporting of MVNMAs and two proposed items relevant to the quality assessment of MVNMAs. Study authors used data from 18 different illnesses to provide illustrative examples within their methodological guidance. CONCLUSIONS The application of MVNMA in the health sciences literature is uncommon. Many methodological frameworks are published; however, standardization and specific criteria to guide reporting and quality assessment are lacking. This overview of the current landscape may help inform future conduct of MVNMAs and research on MVNMA methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica J Bartoszko
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada.
| | - Mayra Gutiérrez García
- Faculty of Science, National Autonomous University of Mexico, University City, Coyoacán, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
| | - Juan Pablo Díaz Martínez
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada
| | - Sergey Yegorov
- Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Department of Biochemistry and Biomedical Sciences, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada
| | - Romina Brignardello-Petersen
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada
| | - Dominik Mertz
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Department of Medicine, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada
| | - Lehana Thabane
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Departments of Anesthesia and Pediatrics, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Biostatistics Unit, St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton, 50 Charlton Ave E, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 4A6, Canada; Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Johannesburg, 5 Kingsway Ave, Rossmore, Johannesburg 2092, South Africa
| | - Mark Loeb
- Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada; Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, McMaster University, 1280 Main St W, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada
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Collier W, Haaland B, Inker L, Greene T. Handling missing within-study correlations in the evaluation of surrogate endpoints. Stat Med 2023; 42:4738-4762. [PMID: 37845797 PMCID: PMC10704210 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9886] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2022] [Revised: 07/16/2023] [Accepted: 08/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023]
Abstract
Rigorous evaluation of surrogate endpoints is performed in a trial-level analysis in which the strength of the association between treatment effects on the clinical and surrogate endpoints is quantified across a collection of previously conducted trials. To reduce bias in measures of the performance of the surrogate, the statistical model must account for the sampling error in each trial's estimated treatment effects and their potential correlation. Unfortunately, these within-study correlations can be difficult to obtain, especially for meta-analysis of published trial results where individual patient data is not available. As such, these terms are frequently partially or completely missing in the analysis. We show that improper handling of these missing terms can meaningfully alter the perceived quality of the surrogate and we introduce novel strategies to handle the missingness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Willem Collier
- Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, CA, United States
- Population Health Sciences, University of Utah School of Medicine, UT, United States
| | - Benjamin Haaland
- Population Health Sciences, University of Utah School of Medicine, UT, United States
| | - Lesley Inker
- Division of Nephrology, Tufts University Medical Center, MA, United States
| | - Tom Greene
- Population Health Sciences, University of Utah School of Medicine, UT, United States
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Manyara AM, Davies P, Stewart D, Wells V, Weir C, Young A, Taylor R, Ciani O. Scoping and targeted reviews to support development of SPIRIT and CONSORT extensions for randomised controlled trials with surrogate primary endpoints: protocol. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e062798. [PMID: 36229145 PMCID: PMC9562307 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062798] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Using a surrogate endpoint as a substitute for a primary patient-relevant outcome enables randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to be conducted more efficiently, that is, with shorter time, smaller sample size and lower cost. However, there is currently no consensus-driven guideline for the reporting of RCTs using a surrogate endpoint as a primary outcome; therefore, we seek to develop SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) and CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) extensions to improve the design and reporting of these trials. As an initial step, scoping and targeted reviews will identify potential items for inclusion in the extensions and participants to contribute to a Delphi consensus process. METHODS AND ANALYSIS The scoping review will search and include literature reporting on the current understanding, limitations and guidance on using surrogate endpoints in trials. Relevant literature will be identified through: (1) bibliographic databases; (2) grey literature; (3) handsearching of reference lists and (4) solicitation from experts. Data from eligible records will be thematically analysed into potential items for inclusion in extensions. The targeted review will search for RCT reports and protocols published from 2017 to 2021 in six high impact general medical journals. Trial corresponding author contacts will be listed as potential participants for the Delphi exercise. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethical approval is not required. The reviews will support the development of SPIRIT and CONSORT extensions for reporting surrogate primary endpoints (surrogate endpoint as the primary outcome). The findings will be published in open-access publications.This review has been prospectively registered in the OSF Registration DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/WP3QH.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony Muchai Manyara
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Philippa Davies
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | | | - Valerie Wells
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Christopher Weir
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Amber Young
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Rod Taylor
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Robertson Centre for Biostatistics, Institute of Health and Well Being, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Manyara AM, Davies P, Stewart D, Weir CJ, Young A, Butcher NJ, Bujkiewicz S, Chan AW, Collins GS, Dawoud D, Offringa M, Ouwens M, Ross JS, Taylor RS, Ciani O. Protocol for the development of SPIRIT and CONSORT extensions for randomised controlled trials with surrogate primary endpoints: SPIRIT-SURROGATE and CONSORT-SURROGATE. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e064304. [PMID: 36220321 PMCID: PMC9557267 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-064304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 09/27/2022] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) may use surrogate endpoints as substitutes and predictors of patient-relevant/participant-relevant final outcomes (eg, survival, health-related quality of life). Translation of effects measured on a surrogate endpoint into health benefits for patients/participants is dependent on the validity of the surrogate; hence, more accurate and transparent reporting on surrogate endpoints is needed to limit misleading interpretation of trial findings. However, there is currently no explicit guidance for the reporting of such trials. Therefore, we aim to develop extensions to the SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) and CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) reporting guidelines to improve the design and completeness of reporting of RCTs and their protocols using a surrogate endpoint as a primary outcome. METHODS AND ANALYSIS The project will have four phases: phase 1 (literature reviews) to identify candidate reporting items to be rated in a Delphi study; phase 2 (Delphi study) to rate the importance of items identified in phase 1 and receive suggestions for additional items; phase 3 (consensus meeting) to agree on final set of items for inclusion in the extensions and phase 4 (knowledge translation) to engage stakeholders and disseminate the project outputs through various strategies including peer-reviewed publications. Patient and public involvement will be embedded into all project phases. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The study has received ethical approval from the University of Glasgow College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences Ethics Committee (project no: 200210051). The findings will be published in open-access peer-reviewed publications and presented in conferences, meetings and relevant forums.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony Muchai Manyara
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, Glasgow, UK, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Philippa Davies
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | | | - Christopher J Weir
- Edinburgh Clinical Trials Unit, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Amber Young
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Nancy J Butcher
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Child Health Evaluation Sciences, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Sylwia Bujkiewicz
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - An-Wen Chan
- Women's College Institute Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Gary S Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology & Musculoskeletal Sciences, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Dalia Dawoud
- National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, London, UK
| | - Martin Offringa
- Child Health Evaluation Sciences, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Joseph S Ross
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Section of General Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Rod S Taylor
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, School of Health and Wellbeing, Glasgow, UK, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Robertson Centre for Biostatistics, School of Health and Well Being, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Bujkiewicz S, Singh J, Wheaton L, Jenkins D, Martina R, Hyrich KL, Abrams KR. Bridging disconnected networks of first and second lines of biologic therapies in rheumatoid arthritis with registry data: bayesian evidence synthesis with target trial emulation. J Clin Epidemiol 2022; 150:171-178. [PMID: 35850425 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.06.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Revised: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES We aim to use real-world data in evidence synthesis to optimize an evidence base for the effectiveness of biologic therapies in rheumatoid arthritis to allow for evidence on first-line therapies to inform second-line effectiveness estimates. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We use data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis to supplement randomized controlled trials evidence obtained from the literature, by emulating target trials of treatment sequences to estimate treatment effects in each line of therapy. Treatment effects estimates from the target trials inform a bivariate network meta-analysis (NMA) of first-line and second-line treatments. RESULTS Summary data were obtained from 21 trials of biologic therapies including two for second-line treatment and results from six emulated target trials of both treatment lines. Bivariate NMA resulted in a decrease in uncertainty around the effectiveness estimates of the second-line therapies, when compared to the results of univariate NMA, and allowed for predictions of treatment effects not evaluated in second-line randomized controlled trials. CONCLUSION Bivariate NMA provides effectiveness estimates for all treatments in first and second line, including predicted effects in second line where these estimates did not exist in the data. This novel methodology may have further applications; for example, for bridging networks of trials in children and adults.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylwia Bujkiewicz
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK.
| | - Janharpreet Singh
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
| | - Lorna Wheaton
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
| | - David Jenkins
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK; Centre for Health Informatics, Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Reynaldo Martina
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK
| | - Kimme L Hyrich
- NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, Manchester, UK; Versus Arthritis Centre for Epidemiology, Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
| | - Keith R Abrams
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK; Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK; Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
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10
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Ciani O, Grigore B, Taylor RS. Development of a framework and decision tool for the evaluation of health technologies based on surrogate endpoint evidence. HEALTH ECONOMICS 2022; 31 Suppl 1:44-72. [PMID: 35608044 PMCID: PMC9546394 DOI: 10.1002/hec.4524] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2021] [Revised: 11/28/2021] [Accepted: 04/02/2022] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
In the drive toward faster patient access to treatments, health technology assessment (HTA) agencies and payers are increasingly faced with reliance on evidence based on surrogate endpoints, increasing decision uncertainty. Despite the development of a small number of evaluation frameworks, there remains no consensus on the detailed methodology for handling surrogate endpoints in HTA practice. This research overviews the methods and findings of four empirical studies undertaken as part of COMED (Pushing the Boundaries of Cost and Outcome Analysis of Medical Technologies) program work package 2 with the aim of analyzing international HTA practice of the handling and considerations around the use of surrogate endpoint evidence. We have synthesized the findings of these empirical studies, in context of wider contemporary body of methodological and policy-related literature on surrogate endpoints, to develop a web-based decision tool to support HTA agencies and payers when faced with surrogate endpoint evidence. Our decision tool is intended for use by HTA agencies and their decision-making committees together with the wider community of HTA stakeholders (including clinicians, patient groups, and healthcare manufacturers). Having developed this tool, we will monitor its use and we welcome feedback on its utility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oriana Ciani
- Centre for Research on Health and Social Care ManagementSDA BocconiMilanLombardiaItaly
- Evidence Synthesis & Modelling for Health ImprovementCollege of Medicine and HealthUniversity of ExeterExeterDevonUK
| | - Bogdan Grigore
- Exeter Test GroupCollege of Medicine and HealthUniversity of ExeterExeterDevonUK
| | - Rod S. Taylor
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit & Robertson Centre for BiostatisticsInstitute of Health and Well BeingUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowScotlandUK
- College of Medicine and HealthUniversity of ExeterExeterDevonUK
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11
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Goring S, Varol N, Waser N, Popoff E, Lozano-Ortega G, Lee A, Yuan Y, Eccles L, Tran P, Penrod JR. Correlations between objective response rate and survival-based endpoints in first-line advanced non-small cell lung Cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Lung Cancer 2022; 170:122-132. [PMID: 35767923 DOI: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2022.06.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2022] [Revised: 06/10/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The study objective was to estimate the relationship between objective response and survival-based endpoints by drug class, in first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC). MATERIALS AND METHODS A systematic literature review identified randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of first-line aNSCLC therapies reporting overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and/or objective response rate (ORR). Trial-level and arm-level linear regression models were fit, accounting for inclusion of immunotherapy (IO)-based or chemotherapy-only RCT arms. Weighted least squares-based R2 were calculated along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For the main trial-level analysis of OS vs. ORR, the surrogate threshold effect was estimated. Exploratory analyses involved further stratification by: IO monotherapy vs. chemotherapy, dual-IO therapy vs. chemotherapy, and IO + chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy. RESULTS From 17,040 records, 57 RCTs were included. In the main analysis, trial-level associations between OS and ORR were statistically significant in both the IO-based and chemotherapy-only strata, with R2 estimates of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.26-0.81) and 0.34 (0.05-0.63), respectively. OS gains associated with a given ORR benefit were statistically significantly larger within IO vs. chemotherapy comparisons compared to chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy comparisons (p < 0.001). Exploratory analysis suggested a trend by IO type: for a given change in ORR, 'pure' IO (IO monotherapy and dual-IO) vs. chemotherapy RCTs tended to have a larger OS benefit than IO + chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy RCTs. For ORR vs. PFS, trial-level correlations were strong in the IO-based vs. chemotherapy (R2 = 0.84; 0.72-0.95), and chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy strata (R2 = 0.69; 0.49-0.88). For OS vs. PFS, correlations were moderate in both strata (R2 = 0.49; 0.20-0.78 and R2 = 0.49; 0.23-0.76). CONCLUSION The larger OS benefit per unit of ORR benefit in IO-based RCTs compared to chemotherapy-only RCTs provides an important addition to the established knowledge regarding the durability and depth of response in IO-based treatments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah Goring
- Broadstreet HEOR, 201-343 Railway St, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
| | - Nebibe Varol
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Sanderson Rd, Denham, Uxbridge, England, UK.
| | | | - Evan Popoff
- Broadstreet HEOR, 201-343 Railway St, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
| | | | - Adam Lee
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Sanderson Rd, Denham, Uxbridge, England, UK.
| | - Yong Yuan
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Ltd, 3401 Princeton Pike, Lawrenceville, NJ, USA.
| | - Laura Eccles
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Ltd, 3401 Princeton Pike, Lawrenceville, NJ, USA.
| | - Phuong Tran
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Ltd, 3401 Princeton Pike, Lawrenceville, NJ, USA.
| | - John R Penrod
- Bristol Myers Squibb Pharmaceuticals Ltd, 3401 Princeton Pike, Lawrenceville, NJ, USA.
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12
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Black CM, Keeping S, Mojebi A, Ramakrishnan K, Chirovsky D, Upadhyay N, Maciel D, Ayers D. Correlation Between Early Time-to-Event Outcomes and Overall Survival in Patients With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Receiving Definitive Chemoradiation Therapy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Front Oncol 2022; 12:868490. [PMID: 35574411 PMCID: PMC9095900 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2022.868490] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Overall survival (OS) is the most patient-relevant outcome in oncology; however, in early cancers, large sample sizes and extended follow-up durations are needed to detect statistically significant differences in OS between interventions. Use of early time-to-event outcomes as surrogates for OS can help facilitate faster approval of cancer therapies. In locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LA-HNSCC), event-free survival (EFS) was previously evaluated as a surrogate outcome (Michiels 2009) and demonstrated a strong correlation with OS. The current study aimed to further assess the correlation between EFS and OS in LA-HNSCC using an updated systematic literature review (SLR) focusing on patients receiving definitive chemoradiation therapy (CRT). Methods An SLR was conducted on May 27, 2021 to identify randomized controlled trials assessing radiotherapy alone or CRT in the target population. Studies assessing CRT and reporting hazard ratios (HRs) or Kaplan-Meier data for OS and EFS were eligible for the analysis. CRT included any systemic treatments administered concurrently or sequentially with radiation therapy. Trial-level EFS/OS correlations were assessed using regression models, and the relationship strength was measured with Pearson correlation coefficient (R). Correlations were assessed across all CRT trials and in trial subsets assessing concurrent CRT, sequential CRT, RT+cisplatin, targeted therapies and intensity-modulated RT. Subgroup analysis was conducted among trials with similar EFS definitions (i.e. EFS including disease progression and/or death as events) and longer length of follow-up (i.e.≥ 5 years). Results The SLR identified 149 trials of which 31 were included in the analysis. A strong correlation between EFS and OS was observed in the overall analysis of all CRT trials (R=0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.93). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analyses of trials assessing concurrent CRT (R=0.88), sequential CRT (R=0.83), RT+cisplatin (R=0.82), targeted therapies (R=0.83) and intensity-modulated RT (R=0.86), as well as in trials with similar EFS definitions (R=0.87), with longer follow-up (R=0.81). Conclusion EFS was strongly correlated with OS in this trial-level analysis. Future research using individual patient-level data can further investigate if EFS could be considered a suitable early clinical endpoint for evaluation of CRT regimens in LA-HNSCC patients receiving definitive CRT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M Black
- Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, United States
| | - Sam Keeping
- Evidence Synthesis, PRECISIONheor, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Ali Mojebi
- Evidence Synthesis, PRECISIONheor, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Karthik Ramakrishnan
- Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, United States
| | - Diana Chirovsky
- Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, United States
| | - Navneet Upadhyay
- Center for Observational and Real-World Evidence, Former Employee of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, United States
| | - Dylan Maciel
- Evidence Synthesis, PRECISIONheor, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Dieter Ayers
- Evidence Synthesis, PRECISIONheor, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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13
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Murphy P, Glynn D, Dias S, Hodgson R, Claxton L, Beresford L, Cooper K, Tappenden P, Ennis K, Grosso A, Wright K, Cantrell A, Stevenson M, Palmer S. Modelling approaches for histology-independent cancer drugs to inform NICE appraisals: a systematic review and decision-framework. Health Technol Assess 2022; 25:1-228. [PMID: 34990339 DOI: 10.3310/hta25760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The first histology-independent marketing authorisation in Europe was granted in 2019. This was the first time that a cancer treatment was approved based on a common biomarker rather than the location in the body at which the tumour originated. This research aims to explore the implications for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. METHODS Targeted reviews were undertaken to determine the type of evidence that is likely to be available at the point of marketing authorisation and the analyses required to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Several challenges were identified concerning the design and conduct of trials for histology-independent products, the greater levels of heterogeneity within the licensed population and the use of surrogate end points. We identified approaches to address these challenges by reviewing key statistical literature that focuses on the design and analysis of histology-independent trials and by undertaking a systematic review to evaluate the use of response end points as surrogate outcomes for survival end points. We developed a decision framework to help to inform approval and research policies for histology-independent products. The framework explored the uncertainties and risks associated with different approval policies, including the role of further data collection, pricing schemes and stratified decision-making. RESULTS We found that the potential for heterogeneity in treatment effects, across tumour types or other characteristics, is likely to be a central issue for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Bayesian hierarchical methods may serve as a useful vehicle to assess the level of heterogeneity across tumours and to estimate the pooled treatment effects for each tumour, which can inform whether or not the assumption of homogeneity is reasonable. Our review suggests that response end points may not be reliable surrogates for survival end points. However, a surrogate-based modelling approach, which captures all relevant uncertainty, may be preferable to the use of immature survival data. Several additional sources of heterogeneity were identified as presenting potential challenges to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisal, including the cost of testing, baseline risk, quality of life and routine management costs. We concluded that a range of alternative approaches will be required to address different sources of heterogeneity to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. An exemplar case study was developed to illustrate the nature of the assessments that may be required. CONCLUSIONS Adequately designed and analysed basket studies that assess the homogeneity of outcomes and allow borrowing of information across baskets, where appropriate, are recommended. Where there is evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effects and estimates of cost-effectiveness, consideration should be given to optimised recommendations. Routine presentation of the scale of the consequences of heterogeneity and decision uncertainty may provide an important additional approach to the assessments specified in the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence methods guide. FURTHER RESEARCH Further exploration of Bayesian hierarchical methods could help to inform decision-makers on whether or not there is sufficient evidence of homogeneity to support pooled analyses. Further research is also required to determine the appropriate basis for apportioning genomic testing costs where there are multiple targets and to address the challenges of uncontrolled Phase II studies, including the role and use of surrogate end points. FUNDING This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 76. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Murphy
- Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK
| | - David Glynn
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
| | - Sofia Dias
- Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK
| | - Robert Hodgson
- Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK
| | - Lindsay Claxton
- Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK
| | - Lucy Beresford
- Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK
| | - Katy Cooper
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) Technology Assessment Group, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Paul Tappenden
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) Technology Assessment Group, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Kate Ennis
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) Technology Assessment Group, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | | | - Kath Wright
- Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK
| | - Anna Cantrell
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) Technology Assessment Group, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Matt Stevenson
- School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) Technology Assessment Group, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Stephen Palmer
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
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14
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Dawoud D, Naci H, Ciani O, Bujkiewicz S. Raising the bar for using surrogate endpoints in drug regulation and health technology assessment. BMJ 2021; 374:n2191. [PMID: 34526320 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.n2191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Dalia Dawoud
- Science, Evidence and Analytics Directorate, Science Policy and Research Programme, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, London, UK
| | - Huseyin Naci
- Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Oriana Ciani
- Centre for Research on Health and Social Care Management, SDA Bocconi, Milan, Italy
- College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Sylwia Bujkiewicz
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
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15
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von Eyben FE, Kairemo K, Paller C, Hoffmann MA, Paganelli G, Virgolini I, Roviello G. 177Lu-PSMA Radioligand Therapy Is Favorable as Third-Line Treatment of Patients with Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer. A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials. Biomedicines 2021; 9:biomedicines9081042. [PMID: 34440246 PMCID: PMC8392412 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines9081042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Revised: 08/15/2021] [Accepted: 08/16/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
In this systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA), we aimed to assess the benefits and harms of third-line (L3) treatments in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Two reviewers searched for publications from 1 January 2006 to 30 June 2021. The review analyzed seven RCTs that included 3958 patients and eight treatments. Treatment with prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-based radioligand therapy (PRLT) resulted in a 1.3-times-higher rate of median PSA decline ≥50% than treatment with abiraterone, enzalutamide, mitoxantrone, or cabazitaxel (p = 0.00001). The likelihood was 97.6% for PRLT to bring about the best PSA response, out of the examined treatments. PRLT resulted in a 1.1-times-higher six-month rate of median radiographic progression-free survival. Treatment with PRLT in the VISION trial resulted in 1.05-times-higher twelve-month median overall survival than L3 treatment with cabazitaxel in other RCTs. PRLT more often resulted in severe thrombocytopenia and less often in severe leukopenia than did cabazitaxel. In conclusion, for patients with mCRPC, L3 treatment with PRLT is highly effective and safe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Finn E. von Eyben
- Center for Tobacco Control Research, Birkevej 17, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark
- Correspondence:
| | - Kalevi Kairemo
- Docrates Cancer Center, Saukanpaaderanta 2, 18000 Helsinki, Finland;
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Boulevard, Houston, TX 77030, USA
| | - Channing Paller
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, John Hopkins University School of Medicine, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA;
| | - Manuela Andrea Hoffmann
- Department of Occupational Health & Safety, Federal Ministry of Defense, Fontaingraben 150, 53123 Bonn, Germany;
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, University Medical Center of the Johannes Guttenberg University in Mainz, Langenbeckerstrasse 15, 55101 Mainz, Germany
| | - Giovanni Paganelli
- Istituto Scientifico Romagnolo per lo Studio e la Cura Tumori, IRST, Via Piero Maroncelli, 4704 Meldola, Italy;
| | - Irene Virgolini
- Department of Nuclear Medicine, University Hospital in Innsbruck, Wilhelm-Geil Strasse 25, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria;
| | - Giandomenico Roviello
- Department of Health Sciences, Section of Clinical Pharmacology and Oncology, University of Florence, Piazza S. Marco 4, 50121 Florence, Italy;
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16
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Coyle D, Durand-Zaleski I, Farrington J, Garrison L, Graf von der Schulenburg JM, Greiner W, Longworth L, Meunier A, Moutié AS, Palmer S, Pemberton-Whiteley Z, Ratcliffe M, Shen J, Sproule D, Zhao K, Shah K. HTA methodology and value frameworks for evaluation and policy making for cell and gene therapies. THE EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS : HEPAC : HEALTH ECONOMICS IN PREVENTION AND CARE 2020; 21:1421-1437. [PMID: 32794011 DOI: 10.1007/s10198-020-01212-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2019] [Accepted: 06/18/2020] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
This last decade has been marked by significant advances in the development of cell and gene (C&G) therapies, such as gene targeting or stem cell-based therapies. C&G therapies offer transformative benefits to patients but present a challenge to current health technology decision-making systems because they are typically reviewed when clinical efficacy data are very limited and when there is uncertainty about the long-term durability of outcomes. These challenges are not unique to C&G therapies, but they face more of these barriers, reflecting the need for adapting existing value assessment frameworks. Still, C&G therapies have the potential to be cost-effective even at very high price points. The impact on healthcare budgets will depend on the success rate of pipeline assets and on the extent to which C&G therapies will expand to wider pathologies beyond rare or ultra-rare diseases. Getting pricing and reimbursement models right is important for incentivising research and development investment while not jeopardising the sustainability of healthcare systems. Payers and manufacturers therefore need to acknowledge each other's constraints-limitations in the evidence generation on the manufacturer side, budget considerations on the payer side-and embrace innovative thinking and approaches to ensure timely delivery of therapies to patients. Several experts in health technology assessment and clinical experts have worked together to produce this publication and identify methodological and policy options to improve the assessment of C&G therapies, and make it happen better, faster and sustainably in the coming years.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Stephen Palmer
- Center for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
| | | | | | | | | | - Kun Zhao
- China National Health Development Research Center, Beijing, China
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17
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Waddingham E, Matthews PM, Ashby D. Exploiting relationships between outcomes in Bayesian multivariate network meta-analysis with an application to relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Stat Med 2020; 39:3329-3346. [PMID: 32672370 DOI: 10.1002/sim.8668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2018] [Revised: 05/29/2020] [Accepted: 05/31/2020] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
In multivariate network meta-analysis (NMA), the piecemeal nature of the evidence base means that there may be treatment-outcome combinations for which no data is available. Most existing multivariate evidence synthesis models are either unable to estimate the missing treatment-outcome combinations, or can only do so under particularly strong assumptions, such as perfect between-study correlations between outcomes or constant effect size across outcomes. Many existing implementations are also limited to two treatments or two outcomes, or rely on model specification that is heavily tailored to the dimensions of the dataset. We present a Bayesian multivariate NMA model that estimates the missing treatment-outcome combinations via mappings between the population mean effects, while allowing the study-specific effects to be imperfectly correlated. The method is designed for aggregate-level data (rather than individual patient data) and is likely to be useful when modeling multiple sparsely reported outcomes, or when varying definitions of the same underlying outcome are adopted by different studies. We implement the model via a novel decomposition of the treatment effect variance, which can be specified efficiently for an arbitrary dataset given some basic assumptions regarding the correlation structure. The method is illustrated using data concerning the efficacy and liver-related safety of eight active treatments for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The results indicate that fingolimod and interferon beta-1b are the most efficacious treatments but also have some of the worst effects on liver safety. Dimethyl fumarate and glatiramer acetate perform reasonably on all of the efficacy and safety outcomes in the model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ed Waddingham
- Division of Brain Sciences, Imperial College, London, UK
| | | | - Deborah Ashby
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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18
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Madden LV, Paul PA. Is Disease Intensity a Good Surrogate for Yield Loss or Toxin Contamination? A Case Study with Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat. PHYTOPATHOLOGY 2020; 110:1632-1646. [PMID: 32370661 DOI: 10.1094/phyto-11-19-0427-r] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Sometimes plant pathologists assess disease intensity when they are primarily interested in other response variables, such as yield loss or toxin concentration in harvested products. In these situations, disease intensity potentially could be considered a surrogate of yield or toxin. A surrogate is a variable which can be used instead of the variable of interest in the evaluation of experimental treatments or in making predictions. Surrogates can be measured earlier, more conveniently, or more cheaply than the variable of primary interest, but the reliability or validity of the surrogate must be shown. We demonstrate ways of quantifying two facets of surrogacy by using a protocol originally developed by Buyse and colleagues for medical research. Coefficient-of-determination type statistics can be used to conveniently assess the strength of surrogacy on a unitless scale. As a case study, we evaluated whether field severity of Fusarium head blight (i.e., FHB index) can be used as a surrogate for yield loss and deoxynivalenol (DON) toxin concentration in harvested wheat grain. Bivariate mixed models and corresponding approximations were fitted to data from 82 uniform fungicide trials conducted from 2008 to 2013. Individual-level surrogacy-for predicting the variable of interest (yield or DON) from the surrogate (index) in plots with the same treatment-was very low. Trial-level surrogacy-for predicting the effect of treatment (e.g., mean difference) for the variable of interest based on the effect of the treatment on the surrogate (index)-was moderate for yield, and only low for DON. Challenges in using disease severity as a surrogate for yield and toxin are discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laurence V Madden
- Department of Plant Pathology, Ohio State University, Wooster, OH 44691
| | - Pierce A Paul
- Department of Plant Pathology, Ohio State University, Wooster, OH 44691
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19
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Papanikos T, Thompson JR, Abrams KR, Städler N, Ciani O, Taylor R, Bujkiewicz S. Bayesian hierarchical meta-analytic methods for modeling surrogate relationships that vary across treatment classes using aggregate data. Stat Med 2020; 39:1103-1124. [PMID: 31990083 PMCID: PMC7065251 DOI: 10.1002/sim.8465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2018] [Revised: 09/10/2019] [Accepted: 12/13/2019] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Surrogate endpoints play an important role in drug development when they can be used to measure treatment effect early compared to the final clinical outcome and to predict clinical benefit or harm. Such endpoints are assessed for their predictive value of clinical benefit by investigating the surrogate relationship between treatment effects on the surrogate and final outcomes using meta‐analytic methods. When surrogate relationships vary across treatment classes, such validation may fail due to limited data within each treatment class. In this paper, two alternative Bayesian meta‐analytic methods are introduced which allow for borrowing of information from other treatment classes when exploring the surrogacy in a particular class. The first approach extends a standard model for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints to a hierarchical meta‐analysis model assuming full exchangeability of surrogate relationships across all the treatment classes, thus facilitating borrowing of information across the classes. The second method is able to relax this assumption by allowing for partial exchangeability of surrogate relationships across treatment classes to avoid excessive borrowing of information from distinctly different classes. We carried out a simulation study to assess the proposed methods in nine data scenarios and compared them with subgroup analysis using the standard model within each treatment class. We also applied the methods to an illustrative example in colorectal cancer which led to obtaining the parameters describing the surrogate relationships with higher precision.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tasos Papanikos
- Biostatistics Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - John R Thompson
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Keith R Abrams
- Biostatistics Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Nicolas Städler
- Roche Innovation Center, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Oriana Ciani
- College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK.,Centre for Research on Health and Social Care Management, SDA Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
| | - Rod Taylor
- College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK.,MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit & Robertson Centre for Biostatistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Sylwia Bujkiewicz
- Biostatistics Group, Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
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20
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Elia EG, Städler N, Ciani O, Taylor RS, Bujkiewicz S. Combining tumour response and progression free survival as surrogate endpoints for overall survival in advanced colorectal cancer. Cancer Epidemiol 2020; 64:101665. [PMID: 31911395 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2019.101665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2019] [Revised: 11/22/2019] [Accepted: 12/17/2019] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Progression free survival (PFS) and tumour response (TR) have been investigated as surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) in advanced colorectal cancer (aCRC), however their validity has been shown to be suboptimal. In recent years, meta-analytic methods allowing for use of multiple surrogate endpoints jointly have been proposed. Our aim was to assess if PFS and TR used jointly as surrogate endpoints to OS improve their predictive value. METHODS Data were obtained from a systematic review of randomised controlled trials investigating effectiveness of pharmacological therapies in aCRC, including systemic chemotherapies, anti-epidermal growth factor receptor therapies and anti-angiogenic agents. Multivariate meta-analysis was used to model the association patterns between treatment effects on the surrogate endpoints (TR, PFS) and the final outcome (OS). RESULTS Analysis of 33 trials reporting treatment effects on all three outcomes showed reasonably strong association between treatment effects on PFS and OS, however the association parameters were obtained with a large uncertainty. A weak surrogate relationship was noted between the treatment effects on TR and OS. Modelling the two surrogate endpoints, TR and PFS, jointly as predictors of treatment effect on OS gave no marked improvement to surrogate association patterns. Modest improvement in the precision of the predicted treatment effects on the final outcome was noted in studies investigating anti-angiogenic therapy, however it was likely due to chance. CONCLUSION The joint use of two surrogate endpoints did not lead to marked improvement in the association between treatment effects on surrogate and final endpoints in advanced colorectal cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- E G Elia
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University, 677 Huntington Ave., Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, George Davies Centre, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK.
| | - N Städler
- F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Basel, Switzerland
| | - O Ciani
- Evidence Synthesis & Modelling for Health Improvement, Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter EX2 4SG, UK; CERGAS Bocconi University, via Rontgen 1, 20136 Milan, Italy
| | - R S Taylor
- Evidence Synthesis & Modelling for Health Improvement, Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter EX2 4SG, UK
| | - S Bujkiewicz
- Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, George Davies Centre, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
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21
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Bujkiewicz S, Jackson D, Thompson JR, Turner RM, Städler N, Abrams KR, White IR. Bivariate network meta-analysis for surrogate endpoint evaluation. Stat Med 2019; 38:3322-3341. [PMID: 31131475 PMCID: PMC6618064 DOI: 10.1002/sim.8187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2018] [Revised: 04/10/2019] [Accepted: 04/10/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Surrogate endpoints are very important in regulatory decision making in healthcare, in particular if they can be measured early compared to the long-term final clinical outcome and act as good predictors of clinical benefit. Bivariate meta-analysis methods can be used to evaluate surrogate endpoints and to predict the treatment effect on the final outcome from the treatment effect measured on a surrogate endpoint. However, candidate surrogate endpoints are often imperfect, and the level of association between the treatment effects on the surrogate and final outcomes may vary between treatments. This imposes a limitation on methods which do not differentiate between the treatments. We develop bivariate network meta-analysis (bvNMA) methods, which combine data on treatment effects on the surrogate and final outcomes, from trials investigating multiple treatment contrasts. The bvNMA methods estimate the effects on both outcomes for all treatment contrasts individually in a single analysis. At the same time, they allow us to model the trial-level surrogacy patterns within each treatment contrast and treatment-level surrogacy, thus enabling predictions of the treatment effect on the final outcome either for a new study in a new population or for a new treatment. Modelling assumptions about the between-studies heterogeneity and the network consistency, and their impact on predictions, are investigated using an illustrative example in advanced colorectal cancer and in a simulation study. When the strength of the surrogate relationships varies across treatment contrasts, bvNMA has the advantage of identifying treatment comparisons for which surrogacy holds, thus leading to better predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sylwia Bujkiewicz
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health SciencesUniversity of LeicesterLeicesterUK
| | - Dan Jackson
- Statistical Innovation GroupAstrazenecaCambridgeUK
| | - John R. Thompson
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, Department of Health SciencesUniversity of LeicesterLeicesterUK
| | | | - Nicolas Städler
- Roche Innovation CenterF. Hoffmann‐La Roche LtdBaselSwitzerland
| | - Keith R. Abrams
- Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Health SciencesUniversity of LeicesterLeicesterUK
| | - Ian R. White
- MRC Clinical Trials UnitUniversity College LondonLondonUK
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