Reliability of a Measure of Temporal Discounting

No effects of acute stress on monetary delay discounting: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Many everyday decisions, including those concerning our health, finances and the environment, involve choosing between a smaller but imminent reward (e.g., €20 now) and a later but larger reward (e.g., €40 in a month). The extent to which an individual prefers smaller imminent rewards over larger delayed rewards can be measured using delay discounting tasks. Acute stress induces a cascade of biological and psychological responses with potential consequences for how individuals think about the future, process rewards, and make decisions, all of which can impact delay discounting. Several studies have shown that individuals focus more on imminent rewards under stress. These findings have been used to explain why individuals make detrimental choices under acute stress. Yet, the evidence linking acute stress to delay discounting is equivocal. To address this uncertainty, we conducted a meta-analysis of 11 studies (14 effects) to systematically quantify the effects of acute stress on monetary delay discounting. Overall, we find no effect of acute stress on delay discounting, compared to control conditions (SMD = -0.18, 95% CI [-0.57, 0.20], p = 0.32). We also find that neither the gender/sex of the participants, the type of stressor (e.g., physical vs. psychosocial) nor whether monetary decisions were hypothetical or incentivized (i.e. monetary decisions were actually paid out) moderated the impact of acute stress on monetary delay discounting. We argue that establishing the effects of acute stress on the separate processes involved in delay discounting, such as reward valuation and prospection, will help to resolve the inconsistencies in the field.

Erotic cue exposure increases physiological arousal, biases choices toward immediate rewards, and attenuates model-based reinforcement learning

Computational psychiatry focuses on identifying core cognitive processes that appear altered across distinct psychiatric disorders. Temporal discounting of future rewards and model-based control during reinforcement learning have proven as two promising candidates. Despite its trait-like stability, temporal discounting may be at least partly under contextual control. Highly arousing cues were shown to increase discounting, although evidence to date remains somewhat mixed. Whether model-based reinforcement learning is similarly affected by arousing cues remains unclear. Here, we tested cue-reactivity effects (erotic pictures) on subsequent temporal discounting and model-based reinforcement learning in a within-subjects design in n = 39 healthy heterosexual male participants. Self-reported and physiological arousal (cardiac activity and pupil dilation) were assessed before and during cue exposure. Arousal was increased during exposure of erotic versus neutral cues both on the subjective and autonomic level. Erotic cue exposure increased discounting as reflected by more impatient choices. Hierarchical drift diffusion modeling (DDM) linked increased discounting to a shift in the starting point bias of evidence accumulation toward immediate options. Model-based control during reinforcement learning was reduced following erotic cues according to model-agnostic analysis. Notably, DDM linked this effect to attenuated forgetting rates of unchosen options, leaving the model-based control parameter unchanged. Our findings replicate previous work on cue-reactivity effects in temporal discounting and for the first time show similar effects in model-based reinforcement learning in a heterosexual male sample. This highlights how environmental cues can impact core human decision processes and reveal that comprehensive modeling approaches can yield novel insights in reward-based decision processes.

A systematic investigation into the reliability of inter-temporal choice model parameters

Decades of work have been dedicated to developing and testing models that characterize how people make inter-temporal choices. Although parameter estimates from these models are often interpreted as indices of latent components of the choice process, little work has been done to examine their reliability. This is problematic because estimation error can bias conclusions that are drawn from these parameter estimates. We examine the reliability of parameter estimates from 11 prominent models of inter-temporal choice by (a) fitting each model to data from three previous experiments with designs representative of those typically used to study inter-temporal choice, (b) examining the consistency of parameters estimated for the same person based on different choice sets, and (c) conducting a parameter recovery analysis. We find generally low correlations between parameters estimated for the same person from the different choice sets. Moreover, parameter recovery varies considerably between models and the experimental designs upon which parameter estimates are based. We conclude that many parameter estimates reported in previous research are likely unreliable and provide recommendations on how to enhance the reliability of inter-temporal choice models for measurement purposes.

Can humans perceive the metabolic benefit provided by augmentative exoskeletons?

BACKGROUND

The purpose of augmentative exoskeletons is to help people exceed the limitations of their human bodies, but this cannot be realized unless people choose to use these exciting technologies. Although human walking efficiency has been highly optimized over generations, exoskeletons have been able to consistently improve this efficiency by 10-15%. However, despite these measurable improvements, exoskeletons today remain confined to the laboratory. To achieve widespread adoption, exoskeletons must not only exceed the efficiency of human walking, but also provide a perceivable benefit to their wearers.

METHODS

In this study, we quantify the perceptual threshold of the metabolic efficiency benefit provided during exoskeleton-assisted locomotion. Ten participants wore bilateral ankle exoskeletons during continuous walking. The assistance provided by the exoskeletons was varied in 2 min intervals while participants provided feedback on their metabolic rate. These data were aggregated and used to estimate the perceptual threshold.

RESULTS

Participants were able to detect a change in their metabolic rate of 22.7% (SD: 17.0%) with 75% accuracy. This indicates that in the short term and on average, wearers cannot yet reliably perceive the metabolic benefits of today's augmentative exoskeletons.

CONCLUSIONS

If wearers cannot perceive the benefits provided by these technologies, it will negatively affect their impact, including long-term adoption and product viability. Future exoskeleton researchers and designers can use these methods and results to inform the development of exoskeletons that reach their potential.

Trial-wise exposure to visual emotional cues increases physiological arousal but not temporal discounting

Humans and many animals devalue future rewards as a function of time (temporal discounting). Increased discounting has been linked to various psychiatric conditions, including substance-use-disorders, behavioral addictions, and obesity. Despite its high intra-individual stability, temporal discounting is partly under contextual control. One prominent manipulation that has been linked to increases in discounting is the exposure to highly arousing appetitive cues. However, results from trial-wise cue exposure studies appear highly mixed, and changes in physiological arousal were not adequately controlled. Here we tested the effects of appetitive (erotic), aversive, and neutral visual cues on temporal discounting in 35 healthy male participants. The contribution of single-trial physiological arousal was assessed using comprehensive monitoring of autonomic activity (pupil size, heart rate, electrodermal activity). Physiological arousal was elevated following aversive and in particular erotic cues. In contrast to our pre-registered hypothesis, steepness of temporal discounting was not significantly affected by emotional cues of either valence. Aversive cues tended to increase decision noise. Computational modeling revealed that trial-wise arousal only accounted for minor variance over and above aversive and erotic condition effects, arguing against a general effect of physiological arousal on temporal discounting.

Analyzing the magnitude effect in spontaneously hypertensive (SHR) and wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats

We analyzed the magnitude effect in Spontaneously Hypertensive (SHR) and Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats choosing between a smaller-sooner (SSF) and a larger-later food (LLF) in the initial link of a concurrent-chains procedure. The SSF was delivered immediately in one terminal link and the LLF delayed 0.01, 5, 10, 20, 40, or 80 s in the other terminal link. An ABABA design varied food amount, 1 vs. 4 and 3 vs. 8 food-pellets in conditions A and B, respectively. The SHRs made more impulsive choices than the WKYs. The hyperbolic-decay model and the Generalized Matching Law fitted the data well. Discounting rate (k) and the area under the discounting curve (AUC) for the choices made by the SHRs in conditions A, were like those in conditions B. For the choices that the individual WKYs made, k was slightly higher and AUC smaller in conditions B than in conditions A. For both strains sensitivity to the immediacy of the LLF (s) was slightly higher in conditions A than in conditions B. Thus, we found no conclusive, compelling evidence either supporting or discarding the magnitude effect in the SHRs and scarce evidence supporting an effect opposite to the magnitude effect in the WKYs.

Temporal discounting does not influence body mass index

The prevalence of obesity has driven searches for cognitive or behavioural economic factors related to Body Mass Index (BMI). One candidate is delay discounting: those who prefer smaller sooner rewards over larger but later rewards are hypothesised to have higher BMI. The findings in the literature are mixed however, with meta analyses suggesting only a very small correlation between discounting and BMI. Here we present novel empirical data (N=381) and Bayesian analyses which suggest no such relationship between discounting of either monetary or weight loss rewards and BMI. We also find evidence against our novel proposal that discounting moderates the rate of BMI gain over time. We also present our data in the context of a random effects Bayesian meta-analytical result which does suggest the presence of a small correlation overall. The strength of the correlation is so weak (2.25% shared variance) that its practical significance may be minor to non existent. However because we found decisive evidence for unaccounted for study-level variance, due to study heterogeneity, we argue that we should treat such meta-analytic correlations with extreme caution. While the relationship between discounting and health outcomes such as BMI remain theoretically appealing, our empirical and meta-analytic results suggest we should be cautious in inferring a correlational, let alone a causal, role for discounting processes in driving BMI or moderating BMI gain with age.

Delay discounting of different outcomes: Review and theory

Steep delay discounting is characterized by a preference for small immediate outcomes relative to larger delayed outcomes and is predictive of drug abuse, risky sexual behaviors, and other maladaptive behaviors. Nancy M. Petry was a pioneer in delay discounting research who demonstrated that people discount delayed monetary gains less steeply than they discount substances with abuse liability. Subsequent research found steep discounting for not only drugs, but other nonmonetary outcomes such as food, sex, and health. In this systematic review, we evaluate the hypotheses proposed to explain differences in discounting as a function of the type of outcome and explore the trait- and state-like nature of delay discounting. We found overwhelming evidence for the state-like quality of delay discounting: Consistent with Petry and others' work, nonmonetary outcomes are discounted more steeply than monetary outcomes. We propose two hypotheses that together may account for this effect: Decreasing Future Preference and Decreasing Future Worth. We also found clear evidence that delay discounting has trait-like qualities: People who steeply discount monetary outcomes steeply discount nonmonetary outcomes as well. The implication is that changing delay discounting for one outcome could change discounting for other outcomes.

Hunger increases delay discounting of food and non-food rewards

How do our valuation systems change to homeostatically correct undesirable psychological or physiological states, such as those caused by hunger? There is evidence that hunger increases discounting for food rewards, biasing choices towards smaller but sooner food reward over larger but later reward. However, it is not understood how hunger modulates delay discounting for non-food items. We outline and quantitatively evaluate six possible models of how our valuation systems modulate discounting of various commodities in the face of the undesirable state of being hungry. With a repeated-measures design, an experimental hunger manipulation, and quantitative modeling, we find strong evidence that hunger causes large increases in delay discounting for food, with an approximately 25% spillover effect to non-food commodities. The results provide evidence that in the face of hunger, our valuation systems increase discounting for commodities, which cannot achieve a desired state change as well as for those commodities that can. Given that strong delay discounting can cause negative outcomes in many non-food (consumer, investment, medical, or inter-personal) domains, the present findings suggest caution may be necessary when making decisions involving non-food outcomes while hungry.

Using behavioral economic variables to predict future alcohol use in a crowdsourced sample

BACKGROUND

Theoretical perspectives at the intersection of behavioral economics and operant theory have resulted in numerous advances for addiction science. Three mechanisms (i.e. behavioral economic demand [consumption-price relationships], delay discounting [reinforcer devaluation with delay], and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement [relative reinforcement attributable to alcohol]) are proposed to contribute to problematic alcohol use. Limited research has evaluated the unique contribution of these mechanisms for predicting future alcohol consumption.

AIM

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive relationship between these mechanisms and self-reported alcohol use frequency, quantity, and severity.

METHODS

Participants (n=223) sampled from the crowdsourcing website Amazon Mechanical Turk completed a survey containing behavioral economic measures. Weekly reports of daily alcohol use were then collected for 18 weeks. Unadjusted and adjusted models determined the association between behavioral economic variables and alcohol use.

RESULTS/OUTCOMES

Behavioral economic measures were associated with alcohol and soda use at baseline in a stimulus-selective manner (e.g. alcohol demand associated with alcohol, but not soda, variables). Predictive models adjusted for Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test scores indicated that increased proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement and behavioral economic demand were uniquely and incrementally associated with frequency (e.g. adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.54 for proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement, p<0.05) and quantity-severity measures (e.g. AOR=7.58 for alcohol demand intensity, p<0.001), respectively. Test-retest reliability was generally acceptable (r_xx=0.42-0.76) with the exception of proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement (r_xx=0.29).

CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION

These findings indicate the unique, predictive, and incremental validity of behavioral economic measures for evaluating future alcohol consumption, supporting their continued use in addiction science research.

Linking Cognitive Measures of Response Inhibition and Reward Sensitivity to Trait Impulsivity

Impulsivity is regarded as a multifaceted construct that comprises two dimensions: rapid-response impulsivity and reward-delay impulsivity. It is unclear, however, which aspects of trait impulsivity, as assessed by self-report measures are related to rapid-response impulsivity and/or to reward-delay impulsivity, as different results have been reported in studies using both self-report and cognitive measures. This study aimed to directly relate self-report measures of impulsivity to cognitive measures of impulsivity in individuals at low- or high-levels on two impulsivity dimensions, specifically rapid-response impulsivity and reward-delay impulsivity. Participants were classified into high- or low-impulsivity groups based on (1) level of rapid-response impulsivity (determined by BIS-11 Motor subscale scores); (2) level of reward-delay impulsivity (determined by BIS/BAS subscale scores); and (3) a combination of rapid-response impulsivity and reward-delay impulsivity levels. Impulsivity was assessed using Go/No-Go, Stop-Signal and Delay-Discounting tasks and self-report measures. The high rapid-response impulsivity group showed significantly higher reward-delay impulsivity on both, the Delay-Discounting tasks and on self-report measures assessing reward-delay impulsivity, than the low-risk group. Based on the level of reward-delay impulsivity, the high reward-delay impulsivity group scored significantly higher on task-based (cognitive) and self-report measures assessing rapid-response inhibition than the low reward-delay impulsivity group. Combining both dimensions of impulsivity showed that the high-impulsivity group performed significantly worse in rapid-response paradigms and temporally discounted significantly more impulsively than the low-impulsivity group. Thus, combined impulsivity factors provide better assessment of impulsivity than each dimension alone. In conclusion, robust differences in impulsivity can be identified in non-clinical young adults.

Value-based decision-making battery: A Bayesian adaptive approach to assess impulsive and risky behavior

Using simple mathematical models of choice behavior, we present a Bayesian adaptive algorithm to assess measures of impulsive and risky decision making. Practically, these measures are characterized by discounting rates and are used to classify individuals or population groups, to distinguish unhealthy behavior, and to predict developmental courses. However, a constant demand for improved tools to assess these constructs remains unanswered. The algorithm is based on trial-by-trial observations. At each step, a choice is made between immediate (certain) and delayed (risky) options. Then the current parameter estimates are updated by the likelihood of observing the choice, and the next offers are provided from the indifference point, so that they will acquire the most informative data based on the current parameter estimates. The procedure continues for a certain number of trials in order to reach a stable estimation. The algorithm is discussed in detail for the delay discounting case, and results from decision making under risk for gains, losses, and mixed prospects are also provided. Simulated experiments using prescribed parameter values were performed to justify the algorithm in terms of the reproducibility of its parameters for individual assessments, and to test the reliability of the estimation procedure in a group-level analysis. The algorithm was implemented as an experimental battery to measure temporal and probability discounting rates together with loss aversion, and was tested on a healthy participant sample.

Are intertemporal preferences contagious? Evidence from collaborative decision making

Prior research has provided substantial insight into individuals' intertemporal preferences (i.e., preferences about delayed rewards). In the present study, we instead investigated the preferences of small groups of individuals asked to express collective intertemporal decisions. The paradigm consisted of three phases. During the precollaboration and postcollaboration phases, participants completed an intertemporal decision task individually. During the collaboration phase, participants completed a similar task in small groups, reaching mutually-agreed-upon decisions. The results suggest that group preferences were systematically related to the mean of the group members' precollaboration preferences. In addition, collaborative decision making altered the group members' intertemporal preferences. Specifically, individuals' postcollaboration preferences converged toward the preferences of their respective groups. Furthermore, we found that individuals' postcollaboration preferences were independently related to both their precollaboration preferences and the preferences of the other group members, suggesting that individuals' postcollaboration preferences represented a revision of their precollaboration preferences based on the preferences observed in other group members. In Experiment 2, we demonstrated that similar patterns of results were found whether participants were making matching judgments or binary choices.

INTERTEMPORAL DECISION-MAKING FOR A GROUP

Temporal discounting assessments measure the reduction in the subjective value of a reward as a function of the delay to that reward, and are correlated with behavior in social dilemma. Among the solutions proposed for defection in social dilemmas is a single individual making the decisions for the group. The present study examined the influence of group context on temporal discounting. Participants completed temporal discounting procedures when the outcomes affected only the individual and when outcomes affected a group of 10, including the individual. Though no overall difference was observed between the individual and group conditions, sex was found to be a moderating variable: Males discounted significantly more when discounting for the individual, but females discounted significantly more when discounting for the group. These results indicate that sex is an important variable when making intertemporal decisions for a group.

Can you change my preferences? Effect of social influence on intertemporal choice behavior

The present study presents a novel social observation paradigm to examine whether temporal discounting (TD) can be modulated in a specific direction. In particular, after estimating a baseline discount rate, we exposed subjects to a pattern of choice that was opposite to their baseline preferences, i.e., subjects preferring immediate over delayed rewards were exposed to a farsighted pattern of behavior and vice-versa. The results showed a significant decrease of the discount rate in the discounter group and an increase in the farsighted group. The effect was mainly guided by a modification of the subjective values at short time delays and was stronger in subjects with extreme, compared to mild, baseline preferences. Importantly, the magnitude and direction of the effect predicted the baseline preferences. These findings have potentially very relevant implications for the prevention and treatment of clinical conditions, such as addition-related disorders, characterized by severe impairments of decision-making mechanisms.

Maintained Physical Activity Induced Changes in Delay Discounting

Those who discount the subjective value of delayed rewards less steeply are more likely to engage in physical activity. There is limited research, however, showing whether physical activity can change rates of delay discounting. In a two-experiment series, treatment and maintenance effects of a novel, effort-paced physical activity intervention on delay discounting were evaluated with multiple baseline designs. Using a lap-based method, participants were instructed to exercise at individualized high and low effort levels and to track their own perceived effort. The results suggest that treatment-induced changes in discounting were maintained at follow-up for 13 of 16 participants. In Experiment 2, there were statistically significant group-level improvements in physical activity and delay discounting when comparing baseline with both treatment and maintenance phases. Percentage change in delay discounting was significantly correlated with session attendance and relative pace (min/mile) improvement over the course of the 7-week treatment. Implications for future research are discussed.

Retest reliabilities of decision-making and cognitive control measures in addictive disorders

Abstract. Aims: Longitudinal and intervention studies are needed on impaired decision-making and cognitive control deficits as putative risk factors for Substance-Related and Addictive Disorders (SAD). Adequate stability of measures is essential for this approach. To improve our knowledge, we aimed 1) to analyse retest reliabilities of such behavioural measures and 2) to compare retest reliabilities between SAD and controls. Methods: In a quasi-experimental design we recruited a convenience sample of three groups: A Gambling Disorder group (n = 26), a Nicotine Dependence group (n = 42), both diagnosed according to DSM-IV, and a healthy control group (n = 52). Participants performed two test sessions within 3 – 4 weeks with six tasks assessing decision-making and cognitive control. Results: Retest reliabilities, indicated by intraclass correlation coefficients, varied extremely between tasks and parameters ranging from 0.31 (poor) to 0.82 (excellent) with the majority ranging from 0.40 (fair) to 0.74 (good). Importantly, retest reliabilities differed significantly between the SAD groups and the control group. Conclusions: Retest reliabilities of decision-making and cognitive control measures are adequate for longitudinal and intervention studies of SAD, although tasks parameters should be selected carefully. However, group differences in retest reliabilities may result in misleading group and intervention effects. To minimize measurement error, studies investigating longitudinal designs may apply latent variable models.

Rationalizing spatial exploration patterns of wild animals and humans through a temporal discounting framework

Understanding the exploration patterns of foragers in the wild provides fundamental insight into animal behavior. Recent experimental evidence has demonstrated that path lengths (distances between consecutive turns) taken by foragers are well fitted by a power law distribution. Numerous theoretical contributions have posited that "Lévy random walks"-which can produce power law path length distributions-are optimal for memoryless agents searching a sparse reward landscape. It is unclear, however, whether such a strategy is efficient for cognitively complex agents, from wild animals to humans. Here, we developed a model to explain the emergence of apparent power law path length distributions in animals that can learn about their environments. In our model, the agent's goal during search is to build an internal model of the distribution of rewards in space that takes into account the cost of time to reach distant locations (i.e., temporally discounting rewards). For an agent with such a goal, we find that an optimal model of exploration in fact produces hyperbolic path lengths, which are well approximated by power laws. We then provide support for our model by showing that humans in a laboratory spatial exploration task search space systematically and modify their search patterns under a cost of time. In addition, we find that path length distributions in a large dataset obtained from free-ranging marine vertebrates are well described by our hyperbolic model. Thus, we provide a general theoretical framework for understanding spatial exploration patterns of cognitively complex foragers.

Searching Choices: Quantifying Decision-Making Processes Using Search Engine Data

When making a decision, humans consider two types of information: information they have acquired through their prior experience of the world, and further information they gather to support the decision in question. Here, we present evidence that data from search engines such as Google can help us model both sources of information. We show that statistics from search engines on the frequency of content on the Internet can help us estimate the statistical structure of prior experience; and, specifically, we outline how such statistics can inform psychological theories concerning the valuation of human lives, or choices involving delayed outcomes. Turning to information gathering, we show that search query data might help measure human information gathering, and it may predict subsequent decisions. Such data enable us to compare information gathered across nations, where analyses suggest, for example, a greater focus on the future in countries with a higher per capita GDP. We conclude that search engine data constitute a valuable new resource for cognitive scientists, offering a fascinating new tool for understanding the human decision-making process.

On the Functional Form of Temporal Discounting: An Optimized Adaptive Test

The tendency to discount the value of future rewards has become one of the best-studied constructs in the behavioral sciences. Although hyperbolic discounting remains the dominant quantitative characterization of this phenomenon, a variety of models have been proposed and consensus around the one that most accurately describes behavior has been elusive. To help bring some clarity to this issue, we propose an Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO) method for fitting and comparing models of temporal discounting. We then conduct an ADO experiment aimed at discriminating among six popular models of temporal discounting. Rather than supporting a single underlying model, our results show that each model is inadequate in some way to describe the full range of behavior exhibited across subjects. The precision of results provided by ADO further identify specific properties of models, such as accommodating both increasing and decreasing impatience, that are mandatory to describe temporal discounting broadly.

Common neural correlates of intertemporal choices and intelligence in adolescents

Converging behavioral evidence indicates that temporal discounting, measured by intertemporal choice tasks, is inversely related to intelligence. At the neural level, the parieto-frontal network is pivotal for complex, higher-order cognitive processes. Relatedly, underrecruitment of the pFC during a working memory task has been found to be associated with steeper temporal discounting. Furthermore, this network has also been shown to be related to the consistency of intertemporal choices. Here we report an fMRI study that directly investigated the association of neural correlates of intertemporal choice behavior with intelligence in an adolescent sample (n = 206; age 13.7-15.5 years). After identifying brain regions where the BOLD response during intertemporal choice was correlated with individual differences in intelligence, we further tested whether BOLD responses in these areas would mediate the associations between intelligence, the discounting rate, and choice consistency. We found positive correlations between BOLD response in a value-independent decision network (i.e., dorsolateral pFC, precuneus, and occipital areas) and intelligence. Furthermore, BOLD response in a value-dependent decision network (i.e., perigenual ACC, inferior frontal gyrus, ventromedial pFC, ventral striatum) was positively correlated with intelligence. The mediation analysis revealed that BOLD responses in the value-independent network mediated the association between intelligence and choice consistency, whereas BOLD responses in the value-dependent network mediated the association between intelligence and the discounting rate. In summary, our findings provide evidence for common neural correlates of intertemporal choice and intelligence, possibly linked by valuation as well as executive functions.

Individual differences in the neural signature of subjective value among older adults

Some healthy older adults show departures from standard decision-making patterns exhibited by younger adults. We asked if such departures are uniform or if heterogeneous aging processes can designate which older adults show differing decision patterns. Thirty-three healthy older adults with varying decision-making patterns on a complex decision task (the Iowa Gambling Task) completed an intertemporal choice task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging. We examined whether value representation in the canonical valuation network differed across older adults based on complex decision-making ability. Older adults with advantageous decision patterns showed increased activity in the valuation network, including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) and striatum. In contrast, older adults with disadvantageous decision patterns showed reduced or absent activation in the VMPFC and striatum, and these older adults also showed greater blood oxygen level dependent signal temporal variability in the striatum. Our results suggest that a reduced representation of value in the brain, possibly driven by increased neural noise, relates to suboptimal decision-making in a subset of older adults, which could translate to poor decision-making in many aspects of life, including finance, health and long-term care. Understanding the connection between suboptimal decision-making and neural value signals is a step toward mitigating age-related decision-making impairments.

The genetics of impulsivity: evidence for the heritability of delay discounting

BACKGROUND

Delay discounting (DD), a decline in the subjective value of reward with increasing delay until its receipt, is an established behavioral model of impulsive choice, a key component of a broader impulsivity construct. Greater DD, i.e., a tendency to choose smaller immediate over larger delayed rewards, has been implicated as a potential intermediate phenotype (endophenotype) for addictive disorders and comorbid externalizing psychopathology, particularly in adolescence. However, genetic and environmental origins of DD remain unclear. Accordingly, the goal of the present study was to assess heritability of DD, an important aspect of its utility as an endophenotype.

METHODS

A commonly used computerized procedure involving choice between varying amounts of money available immediately and a standard amount of $100 presented at variable delays was administered to a population-based sample of twins aged 16 and 18 (n = 560, including 134 monozygotic and 142 dizygotic pairs). DD was quantified using area under the discounting curve and the k coefficient estimated by fitting a hyperbolic model to individual data. Heritability was assessed using linear structural equation modeling of twin data.

RESULTS

The genetic analysis revealed significant heritability of both DD measures (area under the discounting curve: 46% and 62%; k: 35% and 55% at age 16 and 18, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study provides evidence for heritability of both model-based and model-free DD measures and suggests that DD is a promising intermediate phenotype for genetic dissection of impulsivity and externalizing spectrum disorders.

Temporal delay discounting in acutely ill and weight-recovered patients with anorexia nervosa

BACKGROUND

Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) are characterized by a very low body weight but readily give up immediate rewards (food) for long-term goals (slim figure), which might indicate an unusual level of self-control. This everyday clinical observation may be quantifiable in the framework of the anticipation-discounting dilemma.

METHOD

Using a cross-sectional design, this study compared the capacity to delay reward in 34 patients suffering from acute AN (acAN), 33 weight-recovered AN patients (recAN) and 54 healthy controls. We also used a longitudinal study to reassess 21 acAN patients after short-term weight restoration. A validated intertemporal choice task and a hyperbolic model were used to estimate temporal discounting rates.

RESULTS

Confirming the validity of the task used, decreased delay discounting was associated with age and low self-reported impulsivity. However, no group differences in key measures of temporal discounting of monetary rewards were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased cognitive control, which has been suggested as a key characteristic of AN, does not seem to extend the capacity to wait for delayed monetary rewards. Differences between our study and the only previous study reporting decreased delay discounting in adult AN patients may be explained by the different age range and chronicity of acute patients, but the fact that weight recovery was not associated with changes in discount rates suggests that discounting behavior is not a trait marker in AN. Future studies using paradigms with disorder-specific stimuli may help to clarify the role of delay discounting in AN.

Mechanisms of impulsive choice: II. Time-based interventions to improve self-control

Impulsive choice behavior has been proposed as a primary risk factor for other maladaptive behaviors (e.g., gambling, substance abuse). Recent research has suggested that timing processes may play a key role in impulsive choice behavior, and could provide an avenue for altering impulsive choice. Accordingly, the current experiments assessed a set of time-based behavioral interventions to increase self-control while simultaneously assessing effects on timing processes within the impulsive choice task. Three experiments assessed temporal interventions using a differential reinforcement of low rates task (Experiment 1) and exposure to either a variable or fixed interval schedule (Experiments 2-3). The efficacy of the interventions was assessed in Sprague-Dawley (Experiments 1-2) and Lewis (Experiment 3) rat strains. Impulsive choice behavior was assessed by measuring preferences of a smaller-sooner (SS) versus a larger-later (LL) reward, while timing of the SS and LL durations was measured during peak trials within the impulsive choice procedure. The rats showed an increased preference for the LL following all three time-based interventions and also displayed increased temporal precision. These results add to the increasing evidence that supports a possible role for temporal processing in impulsive choice behavior and supply novel behavioral interventions to decrease impulsive behavior.

Comparing delay discounting rates when using the fill-in-the-blank and multiple-choice methods

Several methods have been devised to measure delay discounting. The present study recruited university students to complete a delay-discounting task involving five different outcomes (finding a dating partner, free cigarettes, winning $100,000, being owed $100,000, and obtaining one's ideal body image) that was administered using either the fill-in-the blank (FITB) or multiple-choice (MC) method. Results showed that the different administration methods sometimes produced significantly different rates of discounting, the direction of which differed by outcome. Hyperbolic discounting and the area under the discounting curve were nearly always significantly correlated when the FITB method was used but were never significantly correlated when the MC method was used. Discounting across the five outcomes produced a two-factor solution when the FITB data were factor analyzed. The MC data were described by a one-factor solution. The present results illustrate that procedural variables have a potentially profound impact on delay-discounting data, and generalizing from studies on delay discounting should be done with caution until those variables are fully understood.

The effects of the framing of time on delay discounting

We examined the effects of the framing of time on delay discounting. Delay discounting is the process by which delayed outcomes are devalued as a function of time. Time in a titrating delay discounting task is often framed in calendar units (e.g., as 1 week, 1 month, etc.). When time is framed as a specific date, delayed outcomes are discounted less compared to the calendar format. Other forms of framing time; however, have not been explored. All participants completed a titrating calendar unit delay-discounting task for money. Participants were also assigned to one of two delay discounting tasks: time as dates (e.g., June 1st, 2015) or time in units of days (e.g., 5000 days), using the same delay distribution as the calendar delay-discounting task. Time framed as dates resulted in less discounting compared to the calendar method, whereas time framed as days resulted in greater discounting compared to the calendar method. The hyperboloid model fit best compared to the hyperbola and exponential models. How time is framed may alter how participants attend to the delays as well as how the delayed outcome is valued. Altering how time is framed may serve to improve adherence to goals with delayed outcomes.

Time discounting and smoking behavior: evidence from a panel survey(*)

By using a panel survey of Japanese adults, we show that smoking behavior is associated with personal time discounting and its biases, such as hyperbolic discounting and the sign effect, in the way that theory predicts: smoking depends positively on the discount rate and the degree of hyperbolic discounting and negatively on the presence of the sign effect. Positive effects of hyperbolic discounting on smoking are salient for naïve people, who are not aware of their self-control problem. By estimating smoking participation and smokers' cigarette consumption in Cragg's two-part model, we find that the two smoking decisions depend on different sets of time-discounting variables. Particularly, smoking participation is affected by being a naïve hyperbolic discounter, whereas the discount rate, the presence of the sign effect, and a hyperbolic discounting proxy constructed from procrastination behavior vis-à-vis doing homework assignments affect both types of decision making. The panel data enable us to analyze the over-time instability of elicited discount rates. The instability is shown to come from measurement errors, rather than preference shocks on time preference. Several evidences indicate that the detected associations between time preferences and smoking behavior are interpersonal one, rather than within-personal one.

Long-term test-retest reliability of delayed reward discounting in adolescents

Delay discounting (DD), a decline in subjective value of a reward with increasing temporal delay in receipt of that reward, is an established behavioral indicator of impulsivity. Preference for smaller-immediate over larger-delayed rewards has been implicated in the basic neurobehavioral mechanisms of risk for addictive disorders and related externalizing psychopathology. Establishing long-term stability of DD in adolescence is a necessary step towards its validation as an intermediate phenotype, or marker of risk, in neurobiological and genetic studies. Previous studies have demonstrated moderate to high test-retest reliability of DD, however, these studies utilized adult samples and examined relatively short retest intervals. Due to continuing development of brain and behavior, stability of temporal discounting behavior in adolescence may differ from that in adulthood. Here, two cohorts of adolescents aged 16 (n=126) and 18 (n=111) were administered a computerized test of DD and re-tested two years later. DD rate showed a modest but significant decrease with age, suggesting a reduction in overall impulsivity from middle to late adolescence. Significant test-retest correlations were observed in both cohorts (.67 and .76, respectively, p<.001) indicating longitudinal stability of individual differences in decision-making behavior during middle and late adolescence. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: insert SI title.

Delay and probability discounting as candidate markers for dementia: an initial investigation

The present study investigated delay discounting and probability discounting-behavioral economic indices of impulsivity and risk proneness, respectively-in 39 healthy older adults and 25 older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Relative to the healthy group, it was hypothesized that older adults with MCI would display greater levels of impulsivity, risk proneness, and response inconsistency. The MCI group was found to display a unique delay discounting profile characterized by increasing impulsivity with decreasing reward magnitude, such that cognitively impaired older adults were significantly more impulsive than healthy controls at the small reward magnitude. The two groups exhibited similar levels of probability discounting, though older adults with MCI were significantly less consistent in their risk preferences. The present findings shed light onto decision-making in pre-dementia disease stages and suggest that discounting performance holds potential to complement early diagnostic instruments, likely due to pathophysiological processes in relevant brain regions.

On-the-fly scheduling as a manifestation of partial-order planning and dynamic task values

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a computational account of the spontaneous task ordering that occurs within jobs as work unfolds ("on-the-fly task scheduling").

BACKGROUND

Air traffic control is an example of work in which operators have to schedule their tasks as a partially predictable work flow emerges. To date, little attention has been paid to such on-the-fly scheduling situations.

METHOD

We present a series of discrete-event models fit to conflict resolution decision data collected from experienced controllers operating in a high-fidelity simulation.

RESULTS

Our simulations reveal air traffic controllers' scheduling decisions as examples of the partial-order planning approach of Hayes-Roth and Hayes-Roth. The most successful model uses opportunistic first-come-first-served scheduling to select tasks from a queue. Tasks with short deadlines are executed immediately. Tasks with long deadlines are evaluated to assess whether they need to be executed immediately or deferred.

CONCLUSION

On-the-fly task scheduling is computationally tractable despite its surface complexity and understandable as an example of both the partial-order planning strategy and the dynamic-value approach to prioritization.

The nature of impulsivity: visual exposure to natural environments decreases impulsive decision-making in a delay discounting task

The benefits of visual exposure to natural environments for human well-being in areas of stress reduction, mood improvement, and attention restoration are well documented, but the effects of natural environments on impulsive decision-making remain unknown. Impulsive decision-making in delay discounting offers generality, predictive validity, and insight into decision-making related to unhealthy behaviors. The present experiment evaluated differences in such decision-making in humans experiencing visual exposure to one of the following conditions: natural (e.g., mountains), built (e.g., buildings), or control (e.g., triangles) using a delay discounting task that required participants to choose between immediate and delayed hypothetical monetary outcomes. Participants viewed the images before and during the delay discounting task. Participants were less impulsive in the condition providing visual exposure to natural scenes compared to built and geometric scenes. Results suggest that exposure to natural environments results in decreased impulsive decision-making relative to built environments.

Relations between Cloninger's dimensions of temperament and steepness of delay and effort discounting of monetary rewards

The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between Cloninger's personality dimensions of temperament (Harm Avoidance, Novelty Seeking, Reward Dependence, and Persistence) and the steepness of delay and effort discounting, which refers to a decrease in the subjective value of a reward as its delay, or effort required to obtain the reward, increases. Participants (N = 112; ages 19 to 29 years, M = 21.80, SD = 1.35) filled out two inventories: the Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) and the Discounting Questionnaire. The study revealed that the higher the Harm Avoidance and Reward Dependency, the steeper the effort discounting. On the other hand, the higher one's Persistence, the shallower one's effort discounting. Finally, a positive correlation was observed between delay and effort discounting. The results indicated that effort discounting was related to, but not equivalent to, delay discounting.

On several factors that control rates of discounting

Discounting occurs when the subjective value of an outcome decreases because its delivery is either delayed or uncertain. Discounting has been widely studied because of its ubiquitous nature. Research from our laboratory has demonstrated that rates of discounting are systematically altered by several different factors. This paper outlines how the type of data-collection method (i.e., multiple choice vs. fill in the blank), how one frames the outcome being discounted (i.e., won vs. owed), and the type of outcome (i.e., money vs. medical treatment) by magnitude of the outcome (i.e., small vs. large) by type of discounting (i.e., delay vs. probability) interaction can potentially control observed rates of discounting. Such findings should not only be of interest to individuals who study the quantitative analyses of discounting, but also to researchers and theoreticians trying to understand and generalize findings from studies on discounting.

Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?

Context: People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest – best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods: We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings: The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions: These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions our healthcare system makes about the best way to treat patients and deliver care. This literature has implications for the way we train physicians and deliver care.

Statistical equivalence and test-retest reliability of delay and probability discounting using real and hypothetical rewards

Delay discounting (DD) and probability discounting (PD) refer to the reduction in the subjective value of outcomes as a function of delay and uncertainty, respectively. Elevated measures of discounting are associated with a variety of maladaptive behaviors, and confidence in the validity of these measures is imperative. The present research examined (1) the statistical equivalence of discounting measures when rewards were hypothetical or real, and (2) their 1-week reliability. While previous research has partially explored these issues using the low threshold of nonsignificant difference, the present study fully addressed this issue using the more-compelling threshold of statistical equivalence. DD and PD measures were collected from 28 healthy adults using real and hypothetical $50 rewards during each of two experimental sessions, one week apart. Analyses using area-under-the-curve measures revealed a general pattern of statistical equivalence, indicating equivalence of real/hypothetical conditions as well as 1-week reliability. Exceptions are identified and discussed.