Cost-utility analyses of intensive blood glucose and tight blood pressure control in type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 72)

Estimating Risk Factor Time Paths Among People with Type 2 Diabetes and QALY Gains from Risk Factor Management

OBJECTIVES

Most type 2 diabetes simulation models utilise equations mapping out lifetime trajectories of risk factors [e.g. glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c)]. Existing equations, using historic data or assuming constant risk factors, frequently underestimate or overestimate complication rates. Updated risk factor time path equations are needed for simulation models to more accurately predict complication rates.

AIMS

(1) Update United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM2) risk factor time path equations; (2) compare quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using original and updated equations; and (3) compare QALY gains for reference case simulations using different risk factor equations.

METHODS

Using pooled contemporary data from two randomised trials EXSCEL and TECOS (n = 28,608), we estimated: dynamic panel models of seven continuous risk factors (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, HbA1c, haemoglobin, heart rate, blood pressure and body mass index); two-step models of estimated glomerular filtration rate; and survival analyses of peripheral arterial disease, atrial fibrillation and albuminuria. UKPDS-OM2-derived lifetime QALYs were extrapolated over 70 years using historical and the new risk factor equations.

RESULTS

All new risk factor equation predictions were within 95% confidence intervals of observed values, displaying good agreement between observed and estimated values. Historical risk factor time path equations predicted trial participants would accrue 9.84 QALYs, increasing to 10.98 QALYs using contemporary equations.

DISCUSSION

Incorporating updated risk factor time path equations into diabetes simulation models could give more accurate predictions of long-term health, costs, QALYs and cost-effectiveness estimates, as well as a more precise understanding of the impact of diabetes on patients' health, expenditure and quality of life.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01144338 and NCT00790205.

Post-trial monitoring of a randomised controlled trial of intensive glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes extended from 10 years to 24 years (UKPDS 91)

BACKGROUND

The 20-year UK Prospective Diabetes Study showed major clinical benefits for people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes randomly allocated to intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy or metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control. 10-year post-trial follow-up identified enduring and emerging glycaemic and metformin legacy treatment effects. We aimed to determine whether these effects would wane by extending follow-up for another 14 years.

METHODS

5102 patients enrolled between 1977 and 1991, of whom 4209 (82·5%) participants were originally randomly allocated to receive either intensive glycaemic control (sulfonylurea or insulin, or if overweight, metformin) or conventional glycaemic control (primarily diet). At the end of the 20-year interventional trial, 3277 surviving participants entered a 10-year post-trial monitoring period, which ran until Sept 30, 2007. Eligible participants for this study were all surviving participants at the end of the 10-year post-trial monitoring period. An extended follow-up of these participants was done by linking them to their routinely collected National Health Service (NHS) data for another 14 years. Clinical outcomes were derived from records of deaths, hospital admissions, outpatient visits, and accident and emergency unit attendances. We examined seven prespecified aggregate clinical outcomes (ie, any diabetes-related endpoint, diabetes-related death, death from any cause, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and microvascular disease) by the randomised glycaemic control strategy on an intention-to-treat basis using Kaplan-Meier time-to-event and log-rank analyses. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN75451837.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 1, 2007, and Sept 30, 2021, 1489 (97·6%) of 1525 participants could be linked to routinely collected NHS administrative data. Their mean age at baseline was 50·2 years (SD 8·0), and 41·3% were female. The mean age of those still alive as of Sept 30, 2021, was 79·9 years (SD 8·0). Individual follow-up from baseline ranged from 0 to 42 years, median 17·5 years (IQR 12·3-26·8). Overall follow-up increased by 21%, from 66 972 to 80 724 person-years. For up to 24 years after trial end, the glycaemic and metformin legacy effects showed no sign of waning. Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 10% (95% CI 2-17; p=0·015) for death from any cause, 17% (6-26; p=0·002) for myocardial infarction, and 26% (14-36; p<0·0001) for microvascular disease. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 2·7%, 3·3%, and 3·5%, respectively. Early intensive glycaemic control with metformin therapy, compared with conventional glycaemic control, showed overall relative risk reductions of 20% (95% CI 5-32; p=0·010) for death from any cause and 31% (12-46; p=0·003) for myocardial infarction. Corresponding absolute risk reductions were 4·9% and 6·2%, respectively. No significant risk reductions during or after the trial for stroke or peripheral vascular disease were observed for both intensive glycaemic control groups, and no significant risk reduction for microvascular disease was observed for metformin therapy.

INTERPRETATION

Early intensive glycaemic control with sulfonylurea or insulin, or with metformin, compared with conventional glycaemic control, appears to confer a near-lifelong reduced risk of death and myocardial infarction. Achieving near normoglycaemia immediately following diagnosis might be essential to minimise the lifetime risk of diabetes-related complications to the greatest extent possible.

FUNDING

University of Oxford Nuffield Department of Population Health Pump Priming.

A short-term economic evaluation of early insulin therapy compared to oral anti-diabetic drugs in order to reduce the major adverse events in type 2 diabetes patients in Iran

OBJECTIVE

While there are some recommendations about early insulin therapy in newly diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) patients, there is not sufficient evidence on this strategy's cost-effectiveness. This study compared early insulin therapy versus oral anti-diabetic drugs (OADs) for managing T2DMusing a cost-effectiveness analysis approach in Iran.

METHODS

In this economic evaluation, a decision analytic model was designed. The target population was newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients, and the study was carried out from the perspective of Iran's healthcare system with a one-year time horizon. Basal insulin, Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, and Thiazolidinediones (TZDs) were compared in this evaluation. The main outcome for assessing the effectiveness of each intervention was the reduction in the occurrence of diabetes complications. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out.

RESULTS

The DPP-4 inhibitors strategy was the dominant strategy with the highest effectiveness and the lowest cost. Early insulin therapy was dominated (ICER: $-53,703.18), meaning that it was not cost-effective. The sensitivity analyses consistently affirmed the robustness of the base case findings. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated probabilities of 77%, 22%, and 1% for DPP-4 inhibitors, TZDs strategies, and early insulin therapy, respectively, in terms of being cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

In terms of cost-effectiveness, early insulin therapy was not cost-effective compared to OADs for managing newly diagnosed T2DM patients. Future studies in this regard, utilizing more comprehensive evidence, can yield more accurate results.

Diabetes self-management education on the sustainability of metabolic control in type 2 diabetes patients: Diabetes share care program in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Diabetes self-management education (DSME) improves glycemic and metabolic control. However, the frequency, duration and sustainability of DSME for improving metabolic control have not been well studied.

METHODS

The Diabetes Share Care Program (DSCP) stage 1 provided DSME every 3 months. If participants entering DSCP stage 1 ≥ 2 years and HbA1c < 7%, they can be transferred to stage 2 (DSME frequency: once a year). Three-to-one matching between DSCP stage 1 and stage 2 groups based on the propensity score method to match the two groups in terms of HbA1c and diabetes duration. We identified 311 people living with type 2 diabetes in DSCP stage 1 and 86 in stage 2 and evaluated their metabolic control and healthy behaviors annually for 5 years.

RESULTS

In the first year, HbA1c in the DSCP stage 2 group was significantly lower than that in the stage 1 group. In the first and the fifth years, the percentage of patients achieving HbA1c < 7% was significantly higher in the DSCP stage 2 group than the stage 1 group. There was no significant difference in other metabolic parameters between the two groups during the 5-year follow-up. Self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) frequency was associated with a reduced HbA1c after 5 years (95% CI: -0.0665 to -0.0004).

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated sustainable effects of at least 2-year DSME on achieving better glycemic control for at least 1 year. SMBG contributed to improved glycemic control. The results may be applied to the reimbursement strategy in diabetes education.

Health and economic impact of improved glucose, blood pressure and lipid control among German adults with type 2 diabetes: a modelling study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to estimate the long-term health and economic consequences of improved risk factor control in German adults with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We used the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 to project the patient-level health outcomes and healthcare costs of people with type 2 diabetes in Germany over 5, 10 and 30 years. We parameterised the model using the best available data on population characteristics, healthcare costs and health-related quality of life from German studies. The modelled scenarios were: (1) a permanent reduction of HbA1c by 5.5 mmol/mol (0.5%), of systolic BP (SBP) by 10 mmHg, or of LDL-cholesterol by 0.26 mmol/l in all patients, and (2) achievement of guideline care recommendations for HbA1c (≤53 mmol/mol [7%]), SBP (≤140 mmHg) or LDL-cholesterol (≤2.6 mmol/l) in patients who do not meet the recommendations. We calculated nationwide estimates using age- and sex-specific quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and cost estimates, type 2 diabetes prevalence and population size.

RESULTS

Over 10 years, a permanent reduction of HbA1c by 5.5 mmol/mol (0.5%), SBP by 10 mmHg or LDL-cholesterol by 0.26 mmol/l led to per-person savings in healthcare expenditures of €121, €238 and €34, and 0.01, 0.02 and 0.015 QALYs gained, respectively. Achieving guideline care recommendations for HbA1c, SBP or LDL-cholesterol could reduce healthcare expenditure by €451, €507 and €327 and gained 0.03, 0.05 and 0.06 additional QALYs in individuals who did not meet the recommendations. Nationally, achieving guideline care recommendations for HbA1c, SBP and LDL-cholesterol could reduce healthcare costs by over €1.9 billion.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Sustained improvements in HbA1c, SBP and LDL-cholesterol control among diabetes patients in Germany can lead to substantial health benefits and reduce healthcare expenditures.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of once-daily oral semaglutide versus placebo and subcutaneous glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists added to insulin in patients with type 2 diabetes in China

Introduction: Oral semaglutide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA) that improves glycated hemoglobin levels and body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of once-daily oral semaglutide in comparison to placebo and injectable GLP-1 RAs in Chinese patients with T2DM inadequately controlled on basal insulin. Methods: The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model (UKPDS OM2.1) was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness by calculating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Baseline characteristics of the simulation cohort were obtained from the PIONEER 8 trial. Utility and safety inputs were derived from a network meta-analysis of 12 trials. Direct medical costs were retrieved from published literature and discounted at an annual rate of 5%. We used a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $36,528.3 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Scenario analysis, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed. Results: The effectiveness of oral semaglutide was 10.39 QALYs with a total cost of $30,223.10, while placebo provided 10.13 QALYs at a lower total cost of $20,039.19. Oral semaglutide was not cost-effective at an ICER of $39,853.22 and $88,776.61 per QALY compared to placebo and exenatide at the WTP. However, at an annual price of $1,871.9, it was cost-effective compared with dulaglutide, liraglutide, and lixisenatide. The model was most sensitive to the discount rate and annual cost of oral semaglutide. The price of oral semaglutide needed to be reduced to $1,711.03 per year to be cost-effective compared to placebo and other injectable GLP-1 RAs except for exenatide and semaglutide injection. Conclusion: We found that once-daily oral semaglutide, at a comparable price of semaglutide injection, proves to be a cost-effective add-on therapy to insulin for Chinese patients with T2DM, especially when compared to subcutaneous GLP-1 RAs other than injectable semaglutide and exenatide. However, to achieve cost-effectiveness in comparison to placebo, further cost reduction of oral semaglutide is necessary. The estimated annual cost of $1,711.03 for oral semaglutide demonstrates a more cost-effective option than placebo, highlighting its potential value in the management of T2DM.

Blood pressure control for diabetic retinopathy

BACKGROUND

Diabetic retinopathy is a common complication of diabetes and a leading cause of visual impairment and blindness. Research has established the importance of blood glucose control to prevent development and progression of the ocular complications of diabetes. Concurrent blood pressure control has been advocated for this purpose, but individual studies have reported varying conclusions regarding the effects of this intervention.

OBJECTIVES

To summarize the existing evidence regarding the effect of interventions to control blood pressure levels among diabetics on incidence and progression of diabetic retinopathy, preservation of visual acuity, adverse events, quality of life, and costs.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched several electronic databases, including CENTRAL, and trial registries. We last searched the electronic databases on 3 September 2021. We also reviewed the reference lists of review articles and trial reports selected for inclusion.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in which either type 1 or type 2 diabetic participants, with or without hypertension, were assigned randomly to more intense versus less intense blood pressure control; to blood pressure control versus usual care or no intervention on blood pressure (placebo); or to one class of antihypertensive medication versus another or placebo.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Pairs of review authors independently reviewed the titles and abstracts of records identified by the electronic and manual searches and the full-text reports of any records identified as potentially relevant. The included trials were independently assessed for risk of bias with respect to outcomes reported in this review.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 29 RCTs conducted in North America, Europe, Australia, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East that had enrolled a total of 4620 type 1 and 22,565 type 2 diabetic participants (sample sizes from 16 to 4477 participants). In all 7 RCTs for normotensive type 1 diabetic participants, 8 of 12 RCTs with normotensive type 2 diabetic participants, and 5 of 10 RCTs with hypertensive type 2 diabetic participants, one group was assigned to one or more antihypertensive agents and the control group to placebo. In the remaining 4 RCTs for normotensive participants with type 2 diabetes and 5 RCTs for hypertensive type 2 diabetic participants, methods of intense blood pressure control were compared to usual care. Eight trials were sponsored entirely and 10 trials partially by pharmaceutical companies; nine studies received support from other sources; and two studies did not report funding source. Study designs, populations, interventions, lengths of follow-up (range less than one year to nine years), and blood pressure targets varied among the included trials. For primary review outcomes after five years of treatment and follow-up, one of the seven trials for type 1 diabetics reported incidence of retinopathy and one trial reported progression of retinopathy; one trial reported a combined outcome of incidence and progression (as defined by study authors). Among normotensive type 2 diabetics, four of 12 trials reported incidence of diabetic retinopathy and two trials reported progression of retinopathy; two trials reported combined incidence and progression. Among hypertensive type 2 diabetics, six of the 10 trials reported incidence of diabetic retinopathy and two trials reported progression of retinopathy; five of the 10 trials reported combined incidence and progression. The evidence supports an overall benefit of more intensive blood pressure intervention for five-year incidence of diabetic retinopathy (11 studies; 4940 participants; risk ratio (RR) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73 to 0.92; I2 = 15%; moderate certainty evidence) and the combined outcome of incidence and progression (8 studies; 6212 participants; RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89; I2 = 42%; low certainty evidence). The available evidence did not support a benefit regarding five-year progression of diabetic retinopathy (5 studies; 5144 participants; RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.12; I2 = 57%; moderate certainty evidence), incidence of proliferative diabetic retinopathy, clinically significant macular edema, or vitreous hemorrhage (9 studies; 8237 participants; RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.04; I2 = 31%; low certainty evidence), or loss of 3 or more lines on a visual acuity chart with a logMAR scale (2 studies; 2326 participants; RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.63 to 2.08; I2 = 90%; very low certainty evidence). Hypertensive type 2 diabetic participants realized more benefit from intense blood pressure control for three of the four outcomes concerning incidence and progression of diabetic retinopathy. The adverse event reported most often (13 of 29 trials) was death, yielding an estimated RR 0.87 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.00; 13 studies; 13,979 participants; I2 = 0%; moderate certainty evidence). Hypotension was reported in two trials, with an RR of 2.04 (95% CI 1.63 to 2.55; 2 studies; 3323 participants; I2 = 37%; low certainty evidence), indicating an excess of hypotensive events among participants assigned to more intervention on blood pressure.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension is a well-known risk factor for several chronic conditions for which lowering blood pressure has proven to be beneficial. The available evidence supports a modest beneficial effect of intervention to reduce blood pressure with respect to preventing diabetic retinopathy for up to five years, particularly for hypertensive type 2 diabetics. However, there was a paucity of evidence to support such intervention to slow progression of diabetic retinopathy or to affect other outcomes considered in this review among normotensive diabetics. This weakens any conclusion regarding an overall benefit of intervening on blood pressure in diabetic patients without hypertension for the sole purpose of preventing diabetic retinopathy or avoiding the need for treatment for advanced stages of diabetic retinopathy.

Efficacy and safety of intensive versus conventional glucose targets in people with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of study is to re-evaluate the risk-benefits of intensive glycemic control in the context of multi-factorial intervention in adults with T2D.

METHODS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, and CINHAL for randomized control trials comparing standard glucose targets to intensive glucose targets with pre-specified HbA_1clevels. Subgroup analysis was also performed to account for the inclusion of glucose only versus multi-factorial intervention trials. Results are reported as risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Fifty-seven publications including 19 trials were included. Compared to conventional glycemic control, intensive glycemic control decreased the risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction (0.8, 0.7-0.91), macroalbuminuria (0.72, 0.5--0.87), microalbuminuria (0.67, 0.52-0.85), major amputation (0.6, 0.38-0.96), retinopathy (0.75 ,0.63-0.9), and nephropathy (0.78, 0.63-0.97). The risk of hypoglycemia increased with intensive glycemic control than conventional treatment (2.04, 1.34-3.1). No reduction in all-cause or cardiovascular mortality was observed. However, in the context of multifactorial intervention, intensive glucose control was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality (0.74, 0.57-0.95).

CONCLUSION

Targeting HbA_1c levels should be individualized based on the clinical status, balancing risks and benefits and potential risk for developing these complications among people with T2D.

Effectiveness of a Health Coaching Intervention for Patient-Family Dyads to Improve Outcomes Among Adults With Diabetes: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

More than 75% of US adults with diabetes do not meet treatment goals. More effective support from family and friends ("supporters") may improve diabetes management and outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the Caring Others Increasing Engagement in Patient Aligned Care Teams (CO-IMPACT) intervention improves patient activation, diabetes management, and outcomes compared with standard care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This randomized clinical trial was conducted from November 2016 to August 2019 among participants recruited from 2 Veterans Health Administration primary care sites. All patient participants were adults aged 30 to 70 years with diabetes who had hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels greater than 8% of total hemoglobin (to convert to proportion of total hemoglobin, multiply by 0.01) or systolic blood pressure (SBP) higher than 150 mm Hg; each participating patient had an adult supporter. Of 1119 recruited, 239 patient-supporter dyads were enrolled between November 2016 and May 2018, randomized 1:1 to receive the CO-IMPACT intervention or standard care, and followed up for 12 to 15 months. Investigators and analysts were blinded to group assignment.

INTERVENTIONS

Patient-supporter dyads received a health coaching session focused on dyadic information sharing and positive support techniques, then 12 months of biweekly automated monitoring telephone calls to prompt dyadic actions to meet diabetes goals, coaching calls to help dyads prepare for primary care visits, and after-visit summaries. Standard-care dyads received general diabetes education materials only.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Intent-to-treat analyses were conducted according to baseline dyad assignment. Primary prespecified outcomes were 12-month changes in Patient Activation Measure-13 (PAM-13) and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) 5-year diabetes-specific cardiac event risk scores. Secondary outcomes included 12-month changes in HbA1c levels, SBP, diabetes self-management behaviors, diabetes distress, diabetes management self-efficacy, and satisfaction with health system support for the involvement of family supporters. Changes in outcome measures between baseline and 12 months were analyzed using linear regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 239 dyads enrolled; among patient participants, the mean (SD) age was 60 (8.9) years, and 231 (96.7%) were male. The mean (SD) baseline HbA1c level was 8.5% (1.6%) and SBP was 140.2 mm Hg (18.4 mm Hg). A total of 168 patients (70.3%) lived with their enrolled supporter; 229 patients (95.8%) had complete 12-month outcome data. In intention-to-treat analyses vs standard care, CO-IMPACT patients had greater 12-month improvements in PAM-13 scores (intervention effect, 2.60 points; 95% CI, 0.02-5.18 points; P = .048) but nonsignificant differences in UKPDS 5-year cardiac risk (intervention effect, 1.01 points; 95% CI, -0.74 to 2.77 points; P = .26). Patients in the CO-IMPACT arm also had greater 12-month improvements in healthy eating (intervention effect, 0.71 d/wk; 95% CI, 0.20-1.22 d/wk; P = .007), diabetes self-efficacy (intervention effect, 0.40 points; 95% CI, 0.09-0.71 points; P = .01), and satisfaction with health system support for the family supporter participants' involvement (intervention effect, 0.28 points; 95% CI, 0.07-0.49 points; P = .009); however, the 2 arms had similar improvements in HbA1c levels and in other measures.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this randomized clinical trial, the CO-IMPACT intervention successfully engaged patient-supporter dyads and led to improved patient activation and self-efficacy. Physiological outcomes improved similarly in both arms. More intensive direct coaching of supporters, or targeting patients with less preexisting support or fewer diabetes management resources, may have greater impact.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02328326.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dulaglutide Versus Liraglutide for Management of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Iran

OBJECTIVES

Diabetes mellitus (DM), as one of the most common metabolic diseases, is the ninth leading cause of death globally and imposes heavy costs on the health systems including both costs of treatment and management of secondary complications. This study intended to investigate the cost-effectiveness of dulaglutide compared with liraglutide in the management of patients with type 2 DM in Iran.

METHOD

We conducted a cost-utility analysis using a 5-state Markov model from the health system perspective, over a 10-year time horizon, in 2018 in Iran. Sensitivity of the model has been evaluated through tornado diagram and using one-way sensitivity analysis. In addition, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has been accomplished using Monte Carlo simulation.

RESULTS

The average costs of treatment of patients with type 2 DM using the dulaglutide and liraglutide treatment regimens are 17 577.09 and 18 517.54 US dollars per patient, respectively, over a 10-year time horizon. In terms of effectiveness, the average discounted quality-adjusted life-year rates are estimated at 5.560 and 5.403 for the dulaglutide and liraglutide treatment regimens, respectively. The model is mostly sensitive to the price of dulaglutide and liraglutide, the hemoglobin A1c reduction of liraglutide, and the utility resulting from less injection frequency of dulaglutide, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Dulaglutide, in addition to being more effective, providing 0.156 more quality-adjusted life-years for the patients, reduces costs by 940.45 US dollars per patient over a 10-year time horizon. Therefore, due to the greater effectiveness and lower cost, it is concludable that dulaglutide is the cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = -6028.52) treatment alternative from the health system perspective.

Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge

BACKGROUND

Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models.

METHODS

Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences.

RESULTS

Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions.HighlightsThe findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs).There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.

Health state utilities associated with weight loss in type 2 diabetes and obesity

INTRODUCTION

Health state utilities associated with weight change are needed as inputs for cost-utility analyses (CUAs) examining the value of treatments for obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Although some pharmaceutical treatments currently in development are associated with substantial weight loss, little is known about the utility impact of weight decreases greater than 10%. The purpose of this study was to estimate utilities associated with body weight decreases up to 20% based on preferences of individuals with obesity, with and without T2D.

METHODS

Health state vignettes were developed to represent respondents' own current weight and weight decreases of 2.5, 5, 10, 15, and 20%. Health state utilities were elicited in time trade-off interviews in two UK locations (Edinburgh and London) with a sample of participants with obesity, with and without T2D. Mean utility increases associated with each amount of weight decrease were calculated. Regression analyses were performed to derive a method for estimating utility change associated with weight decreases.

RESULTS

Analyses were conducted with data from 405 individuals with obesity (202 with T2D, 203 without T2D). Utility increases associated with various levels of weight decrease ranged from 0.011 to 0.060 in the subgroup with T2D and 0.015 to 0.077 in the subgroup without T2D. All regression models found that the percentage of weight decrease was a highly significant predictor of change in utility (p < .0001). The relationship between weight change and utility change did not appear to be linear. Equations are recommended for estimating utility change based on the natural logarithm of percentage of weight decrease.

DISCUSSION

Results of this study may be used to provide inputs for CUAs examining and comparing the value of treatments that are associated with substantial amounts of weight loss in patients with obesity, with or without T2D.

Estimating risk factor progression equations for the UKPDS Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS 90)

OBJECTIVES

To estimate 13 equations that predict clinically plausible risk factor time paths to inform the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model version 2 (UKPDS-OM2).

METHODS

Data from 5102 UKPDS participants from the 20-year trial, and the 4031 survivors with 10 years further post-trial follow-up, were used to derive equations for the time paths of 13 clinical risk factors: HbA_1c , systolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, BMI, micro- or macro-albuminuria, creatinine, heart rate, white blood cell count, haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filter rate, atrial fibrillation and peripheral vascular disease (PVD). The incidence of events and death predicted by the UKPDS-OM2 when informed by the new risk factor equations was compared with the observed cumulative rates up to 25 years.

RESULTS

The new equations were based on 24 years of follow-up and up to 65,252 person-years of data. Women were associated with higher values of all continuous risk factors except for haemoglobin. Older age and higher BMI at diagnosis were associated with higher rates of PVD (HR 1.06 and 1.02), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.10 and 1.08) and micro- or macro-albuminuria (HR 1.01 and 1.18). Smoking was associated with higher rates of developing PVD (HR 2.38) and micro- and macro-albuminuria (HR 1.39). The UKPDS-OM2, informed by the new risk factor equations, predicted event rates for complications and death consistent with those observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The new equations allow risk factor time paths beyond observed data, which should improve modelling of long-term health outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes when using the UKPDS-OM2 or other models.

Review and estimation of disutility for joint health states of severe and nonsevere hypoglycemic events in diabetes

Aim: Many economic evaluations used linear or log-transformed additive methods to estimate the disutility of hypoglycemic events in diabetes, both nonsevere (NSHEs) and severe (SHEs). Methods: We conducted a literature search for studies of disutility for hypoglycemia. We used additive, minimum and multiplicative methods, and the adjusted decrement estimator to estimate the disutilities of joint health states with both NSHEs and SHEs in six scenarios. Results: Twenty-four studies reported disutilities for hypoglycemia in diabetes. Based on construct validity, the adjusted decrement estimator method likely provides less biased estimates, predicting that when SHEs occur, the additional impact from NSHEs is marginal. Conclusion: Our proposed new method provides a different perspective on the estimation of quality-adjusted life-years in economic evaluations of hypoglycemic treatments.

Cost-effectiveness of Interventions to Manage Diabetes: Has the Evidence Changed Since 2008?

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize updated evidence on the cost-effectiveness (CE) of interventions to manage diabetes, its complications, and comorbidities.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature review of studies from high-income countries evaluating the CE of diabetes management interventions recommended by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and published in English between June 2008 and July 2017. We also incorporated studies from a previous CE review from the period 1985-2008. We classified the interventions based on their strength of evidence (strong, supportive, or uncertain) and levels of CE: cost-saving (more health benefit at a lower cost), very cost-effective (≤$25,000 per life year gained [LYG] or quality-adjusted life year [QALY]), cost-effective ($25,001-$50,000 per LYG or QALY), marginally cost-effective ($50,001-$100,000 per LYG or QALY), or not cost-effective (>$100,000 per LYG or QALY). Costs were measured in 2017 U.S. dollars.

RESULTS

Seventy-three new studies met our inclusion criteria. These were combined with 49 studies from the previous review to yield 122 studies over the period 1985-2017. A large majority of the ADA-recommended interventions remain cost-effective. Specifically, we found strong evidence that the following ADA-recommended interventions are cost-saving or very cost-effective: In the cost-saving category are 1) ACE inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) therapy for intensive hypertension management compared with standard hypertension management, 2) ACEI/ARB therapy to prevent chronic kidney disease and/or end-stage renal disease in people with albuminuria compared with no ACEI/ARB therapy, 3) comprehensive foot care and patient education to prevent and treat foot ulcers among those at moderate/high risk of developing foot ulcers, 4) telemedicine for diabetic retinopathy screening compared with office screening, and 5) bariatric surgery compared with no surgery for individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m²). In the very cost-effective category are 1) intensive glycemic management (targeting A1C <7%) compared with conventional glycemic management (targeting an A1C level of 8-10%) for individuals with newly diagnosed T2D, 2) multicomponent interventions (involving behavior change/education and pharmacological therapy targeting hyperglycemia, hypertension, dyslipidemia, microalbuminuria, nephropathy/retinopathy, secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease with aspirin) compared with usual care, 3) statin therapy compared with no statin therapy for individuals with T2D and history of cardiovascular disease, 4) diabetes self-management education and support compared with usual care, 5) T2D screening every 3 years starting at age 45 years compared with no screening, 6) integrated, patient-centered care compared with usual care, 7) smoking cessation compared with no smoking cessation, 8) daily aspirin use as primary prevention for cardiovascular complications compared with usual care, 9) self-monitoring of blood glucose three times per day compared with once per day among those using insulin, 10) intensive glycemic management compared with conventional insulin therapy for T2D among adults aged ≥50 years, and 11) collaborative care for depression compared with usual care.

CONCLUSIONS

Complementing professional treatment recommendations, our systematic review provides an updated understanding of the potential value of interventions to manage diabetes and its complications and can assist clinicians and payers in prioritizing interventions and health care resources.

Metformin monotherapy for adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, there is an increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Metformin is still the recommended first-line glucose-lowering drug for people with T2DM. Despite this, the effects of metformin on patient-important outcomes are still not clarified.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of metformin monotherapy in adults with T2DM.

SEARCH METHODS

We based our search on a systematic report from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and topped-up the search in CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, WHO ICTRP, and ClinicalTrials.gov. Additionally, we searched the reference lists of included trials and systematic reviews, as well as health technology assessment reports and medical agencies. The date of the last search for all databases was 2 December 2019, except Embase (searched up 28 April 2017).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with at least one year's duration comparing metformin monotherapy with no intervention, behaviour changing interventions or other glucose-lowering drugs in adults with T2DM.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors read all abstracts and full-text articles/records, assessed risk of bias, and extracted outcome data independently. We resolved discrepancies by involvement of a third review author. For meta-analyses we used a random-effects model with investigation of risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences (MDs) for continuous outcomes, using 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for effect estimates. We assessed the overall certainty of the evidence by using the GRADE instrument.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 18 RCTs with multiple study arms (N = 10,680). The percentage of participants finishing the trials was approximately 58% in all groups. Treatment duration ranged from one to 10.7 years. We judged no trials to be at low risk of bias on all 'Risk of bias' domains. The main outcomes of interest were all-cause mortality, serious adverse events (SAEs), health-related quality of life (HRQoL), cardiovascular mortality (CVM), non-fatal myocardial infarction (NFMI), non-fatal stroke (NFS), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Two trials compared metformin (N = 370) with insulin (N = 454). Neither trial reported on all-cause mortality, SAE, CVM, NFMI, NFS or ESRD. One trial provided information on HRQoL but did not show a substantial difference between the interventions. Seven trials compared metformin with sulphonylureas. Four trials reported on all-cause mortality: in three trials no participant died, and in the remaining trial 31/1454 participants (2.1%) in the metformin group died compared with 31/1441 participants (2.2%) in the sulphonylurea group (very low-certainty evidence). Three trials reported on SAE: in two trials no SAE occurred (186 participants); in the other trial 331/1454 participants (22.8%) in the metformin group experienced a SAE compared with 308/1441 participants (21.4%) in the sulphonylurea group (very low-certainty evidence). Two trials reported on CVM: in one trial no CVM was observed and in the other trial 4/1441 participants (0.3%) in the metformin group died of cardiovascular reasons compared with 8/1447 participants (0.6%) in the sulphonylurea group (very low-certainty evidence). Three trials reported on NFMI: in two trials no NFMI occurred, and in the other trial 21/1454 participants (1.4%) in the metformin group experienced a NFMI compared with 15/1441 participants (1.0%) in the sulphonylurea group (very low-certainty evidence). One trial reported no NFS occurred (very low-certainty evidence). No trial reported on HRQoL or ESRD. Seven trials compared metformin with thiazolidinediones (very low-certainty evidence for all outcomes). Five trials reported on all-cause mortality: in two trials no participant died; the overall RR was 0.88, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.39; P = 0.57; 5 trials; 4402 participants). Four trials reported on SAE, the RR was 0,95, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.09; P = 0.49; 3208 participants. Four trials reported on CVM, the RR was 0.71, 95% CI 0.21 to 2.39; P = 0.58; 3211 participants. Three trial reported on NFMI: in two trials no NFMI occurred and in one trial 21/1454 participants (1.4%) in the metformin group experienced a NFMI compared with 25/1456 participants (1.7%) in the thiazolidinedione group. One trial reported no NFS occurred. No trial reported on HRQoL or ESRD. Three trials compared metformin with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (one trial each with saxagliptin, sitagliptin, vildagliptin with altogether 1977 participants). There was no substantial difference between the interventions for all-cause mortality, SAE, CVM, NFMI and NFS (very low-certainty evidence for all outcomes). One trial compared metformin with a glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue (very low-certainty evidence for all reported outcomes). There was no substantial difference between the interventions for all-cause mortality, CVM, NFMI and NFS. One or more SAEs were reported in 16/268 (6.0%) of the participants allocated to metformin compared with 35/539 (6.5%) of the participants allocated to a glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue. HRQoL or ESRD were not reported. One trial compared metformin with meglitinide and two trials compared metformin with no intervention. No deaths or SAEs occurred (very low-certainty evidence) no other patient-important outcomes were reported. No trial compared metformin with placebo or a behaviour changing interventions. Four ongoing trials with 5824 participants are likely to report one or more of our outcomes of interest and are estimated to be completed between 2018 and 2024. Furthermore, 24 trials with 2369 participants are awaiting assessment.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no clear evidence whether metformin monotherapy compared with no intervention, behaviour changing interventions or other glucose-lowering drugs influences patient-important outcomes.

Accurately Reflecting Uncertainty When Using Patient-Level Simulation Models to Extrapolate Clinical Trial Data

Introduction. Patient-level simulation models facilitate extrapolation of clinical trial data while allowing for heterogeneity, prior history, and nonlinearity. However, combining different types of uncertainty around within-trial and extrapolated results remains challenging. Methods. We tested 4 methods to combine parameter uncertainty (around the regression coefficients used to predict future events) with sampling uncertainty (uncertainty around mean risk factors within the finite sample whose outcomes are being predicted and the effect of treatment on these risk factors). We compared these 4 methods using a simulation study based on an economic evaluation extrapolating the AFORRD randomized controlled trial using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model version 2. This established type 2 diabetes model predicts patient-level health outcomes and costs. Results. The 95% confidence intervals around life years gained gave 25% coverage when sampling uncertainty was excluded (i.e., 25% of 95% confidence intervals contained the “true” value). Allowing for sampling uncertainty as well as parameter uncertainty widened confidence intervals by 6.3-fold and gave 96.3% coverage. Methods adjusting for baseline risk factors that combine sampling and parameter uncertainty overcame the bias that can result from between-group baseline imbalance and gave confidence intervals around 50% wider than those just considering parameter uncertainty, with 99.8% coverage. Conclusions. Analyses extrapolating data for individual trial participants should include both sampling uncertainty and parameter uncertainty and should adjust for any imbalance in baseline covariates.

Economic Simulation Modeling in Type 2 Diabetes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This paper provides an overview of type 2 diabetes economic simulation modeling and reviews current topics of discussion and major challenges in the field.

RECENT FINDINGS

Important challenges in the field include increasing the generalizability of models and improving transparency in model reporting. To identify and address these issues, modeling groups have organized through the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge meetings and developed tools (i.e., checklist, impact inventory) to standardize modeling methods and reporting of results. Accordingly, many newer diabetes models have begun utilizing these tools, allowing for improved comparability between diabetes models. In the last two decades, type 2 diabetes simulation models have improved considerably, due to the collaborative work performed through the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge meetings. To continue to improve diabetes models, future work must focus on clarifying diabetes progression in racial/ethnic minorities and incorporating equity considerations into health economic analysis.

Cost-effectiveness of intensive interventions compared to standard care in individuals with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and critical appraisal of decision-analytic models

AIMS

The objective of this systematic review is to identify and assess the quality of published decision-analytic models evaluating the long-term cost-effectiveness of target-driven intensive interventions for single and multifactorial risk factor control compared to standard care in people with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We searched the electronic databases MEDLINE, the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library from inception to October 31, 2019. Articles were eligible for inclusion if the studies had used a decision-analytic model evaluating both the long-term costs and benefits associated with intensive interventions for risk factor control compared to standard care in people with type 2 diabetes. Data were extracted using a standardised form, while quality was assessed using the decision-analytic model-specific Philips-criteria.

RESULTS

Overall, nine articles (11 models) were identified, four models evaluated intensive glycaemic control, three evaluated intensive blood pressure control, two evaluated intensive lipid control, and two evaluated intensive multifactorial interventions. Six reported using discrete-time simulations modelling approach, whereas five reported using a Markov modelling framework. The majority, seven studies, reported that the intensive interventions were dominant or cost-effective, given the assumptions and analytical perspective taken. The methodological and reporting quality of the studies was generally weak, with only four studies fulfilling more than 50% of their applicable Philips-criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first systematic review of decision-analytic models of target-driven intensive interventions for single and multifactorial risk factor control in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Identified shortcomings are lack of transparency in data identification and evidence synthesis as well as for the selection of the modelling approaches. Future models should aim to include greater evaluation of the quality of the data sources used and the assessment of uncertainty in the model.

Metformin alleviates breast cancer through targeting high-mobility group AT-hook 2

BACKGROUND

As a classic oral drug used in diabetic patients, metformin has exhibited an anticancer role in many types of cancers in recent years. Here, we aimed to investigate the role of metformin in the growth of breast cancer and its novel targets.

METHODS

A cell viability assay was utilized to examine the inhibitory effect of metformin on proliferation of breast cancer cells. Western blotting and RT-PCR assays were used to detect the regulation of metformin on the expression of oncogenic HMGA2. The luciferase reporter vector of HMGA2 promoter was constructed. A luciferase reporter gene assay was performed to analyze the effect of metformin on HMGA2 promoter activity in breast cancer cells. Chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) assay was performed to show the binding of Sp1 to HMGA2 promoter in breast cancer cells with or without metformin treatment. The function of metformin-regulated HMGA2 in breast cancer growth was tested using a cell viability assay.

RESULTS

Cell proliferation was obviously inhibited in breast cancer cells treated with different concentrations of metformin. The level of mRNA and protein of HMGA2 was significantly reduced by metformin in the cells. Mechanistically, metformin was able to inactivate the HMGA2 promoter through downregulating transcription factor Sp1 in the cells. In terms of function, treatment with metformin suppressed the proliferation of breast cancer cells and overexpressed HMGA2 reversed the inhibition of cell proliferation mediated by metformin.

CONCLUSION

Metformin resists the growth of breast cancer through targeting Sp1/HMGA2 signal.

Efficacy of a Lupinus mutabilis Sweet snack as complement to conventional type 2 diabetes mellitus treatment

Introduction

Introduction: therapeutic lifestyles changes including frequent consumption of legumes have resulted in improved metabolic control and decreased blood pressure in type 2 diabetes-mellitus (T2DM) patients. Objective: this was a quasi-experimental-28-week crossover-study that assessed the effect of daily consumption of the legume Lupinus mutabilis (LM) on metabolic control of T2DM patients under hypoglycemic oral treatment. Material and methods: we recruited 79 adult male and female patients that were followed for 14-weeks without LM consumption and then received increasing doses of a LM-based-snack for other 14-weeks. Results: there was a significant decrease in blood pressure and a significant increase in HDL-cholesterol by the end of the study period. While patients with A1C concentrations > 8 and ≤ 10 did not significantly improve their metabolic control, patients with serum A1C concentrations ≤ 8.0% reduced significantly their A1C after the intervention and 71% achieved a target concentration of 6.5%. Conclusion: patients with T2DM could benefit with the addition of LM-snack to their conventional treatment.

Can You Repeat That? Exploring the Definition of a Successful Model Replication in Health Economics

The International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) modelling taskforce suggests decision models should be thoroughly reported and transparent. However, the level of transparency and indeed how transparency should be assessed are yet to be defined. One way may be to attempt to replicate the model and its outputs. The ability to replicate a decision model could demonstrate adequate reporting transparency. This review aims to explore published definitions of replication success across all scientific disciplines and to consider how such a definition should be tailored for use in health economic models. A literature review was conducted to identify published definitions of a 'successful replication'. Using these as a foundation, several definitions of replication success were constructed, to be applicable to replications of economic decision models, with the associated strengths and weaknesses of such definitions discussed. A substantial body of literature discussing replicability was found; however, relatively few studies, ten, explicitly defined a successful replication. These definitions varied from subjective assessments to expecting exactly the same results to be reproduced. Whilst the definitions that have been found may help to construct a definition specific to health economics, no definition was found that completely encompassed the unique requirements for decision models. Replication is widely discussed in other scientific disciplines; however, as of yet, there is no consensus on how replicable models should be within health economics or what constitutes a successful replication. Replication studies can demonstrate how transparently a model is reported, identify potential calculation errors and inform future reporting practices. It may therefore be a useful adjunct to other transparency or quality measures.

Decision models of prediabetes populations: A systematic review

AIMS

With evidence supporting the use of preventive interventions for prediabetes populations and the use of novel biomarkers to stratify the risk of progression, there is a need to evaluate their cost-effectiveness across jurisdictions. Our aim is to summarize and assess the quality and validity of decision models and model-based economic evaluations of populations with prediabetes, to evaluate their potential use for the assessment of novel prevention strategies and to discuss the knowledge gaps, challenges and opportunities.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, EconLit and NHS EED between 2000 and 2018 for studies reporting computer simulation models of the natural history of individuals with prediabetes and/or we used decision models to evaluate the impact of treatment strategies on these populations. Data were extracted following PRISMA guidelines and assessed using modelling checklists. Two reviewers independently assessed 50% of the titles and abstracts to determine whether a full text review was needed. Of these, 10% was assessed by each reviewer to cross-reference the decision to proceed to full review. Using a standardized form and double extraction, each of four reviewers extracted 50% of the identified studies.

RESULTS

A total of 29 published decision models that simulate prediabetes populations were identified. Studies showed large variations in the definition of prediabetes and model structure. The inclusion of complications in prediabetes (n = 8) and type 2 diabetes (n = 17) health states also varied. A minority of studies simulated annual changes in risk factors (glycaemia, HbA1c, blood pressure, BMI, lipids) as individuals progressed in the models (n = 7) and accounted for heterogeneity among individuals with prediabetes (n = 7).

CONCLUSIONS

Current prediabetes decision models have considerable limitations in terms of their quality and validity and do not allow evaluation of stratified strategies using novel biomarkers, highlighting a clear need for more comprehensive prediabetes decision models.

Access to health care for older people with intellectual disability: a modelling study to explore the cost-effectiveness of health checks

Background

Whilst people with intellectual disability grow older, evidence has emerged internationally about the largely unmet health needs of this specific ageing population. Health checks have been implemented in some countries to address those health inequalities. Evaluations have focused on measuring process outcomes due to challenges measuring quality of life outcomes. In addition, the cost-effectiveness is currently unknown. As part of a national guideline for this population we sought to explore the likely cost-effectiveness of annual health checks in England.

Methods

Decision-analytical Markov modelling was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a strategy, in which health checks were provided for older people with intellectual disability, when compared with standard care. The approach we took was explorative. Individual models were developed for a selected range of health conditions, which had an expected high economic impact and for which sufficient evidence was available for the modelling. In each of the models, hypothetical cohorts were followed from 40 yrs. of age until death. The outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated. Costs were assessed from a health provider perspective and expressed in 2016 GBP. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3.5%. We carried out probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Data from published studies as well as expert opinion informed parameters.

Results

Health checks led to a mean QALY gain of 0.074 (95% CI 0.072 to 0.119); and mean incremental costs of £4787 (CI 95% 4773 to 5017). For a threshold of £30,000 per QALY, health checks were not cost-effective (mean ICER £85,632; 95% CI 82,762 to 131,944). Costs of intervention needed to reduce from £258 to under £100 per year in order for health checks to be cost-effective.

Conclusion

Whilst findings need to be considered with caution as the model was exploratory in that it was based on assumptions to overcome evidence gaps, they suggest that the way health systems deliver care for vulnerable populations might need to be re-examined. The work was carried out as part of a national guideline and informed recommendations about system changes to achieve more equal health care provisions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6912-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Potential Effect of Metformin on Cancer: An Umbrella Review

Background: Metformin has been reported to possess anti-cancer properties in addition to glucose-lowering activity and numerous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have studied the association between metformin use and cancer incidence or survival outcomes. We performed an umbrella review to assess the robustness of these associations to facilitate proper interpretation of these results to inform clinical and policy decisions. Methods: We searched PubMed and Embase systematic reviews and meta-analyses investigating the effect of metformin use on cancer incidence or survival outcomes published from inception to September 2, 2018. We estimated the summary effect size, the 95% CI, and the 95% prediction interval, heterogeneity, evidence of small-study effects, and evidence of excess significance bias. Results: We included 21 systematic reviews and meta-analyses covering 11 major anatomical sites and 33 associations. There was strong evidence for the association between metformin use and decreased pancreatic cancer incidence. The association between metformin use and improved colorectal cancer overall survival (OS) was supported by highly suggestive evidence. Seven associations (all cancer incidence, all cancer OS, breast cancer OS, colorectal cancer incidence, liver cancer incidence, lung cancer OS, and pancreatic cancer OS) presented only suggestive evidence. The remaining 24 associations were supported by weak or not-suggestive evidence. Conclusions: Associations between metformin use and pancreatic cancer incidence or colorectal cancer OS are supported by strong or highly suggestive evidence, respectively. However, these results should be interpreted with caution due to the poor methodological quality of the systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

How good are GPs at adhering to a pragmatic trial protocol in primary care? Results from the ADDITION-Cambridge cluster-randomised pragmatic trial

OBJECTIVE

To assess the fidelity of general practitioners' (GPs) adherence to a long-term pragmatic trial protocol.

DESIGN

Retrospective analyses of electronic primary care records of participants in the pragmatic cluster-randomised ADDITION (Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment In People with Screen Detected Diabetes in Primary Care)-Cambridge trial, comparing intensive multifactorial treatment (IT) versus routine care (RC). Data were collected from the date of diagnosis until December 2010.

SETTING

Primary care surgeries in the East of England.

STUDY SAMPLE/PARTICIPANTS

A subsample (n=189, RC arm: n=99, IT arm: n=90) of patients from the ADDITION-Cambridge cohort (867 patients), consisting of patients 40-69 years old with screen-detected diabetes mellitus.

INTERVENTIONS

In the RC arm treatment was delivered according to concurrent treatment guidelines. Surgeries in the IT arm received funding for additional contacts between GPs/nurses and patients, and GPs were advised to follow more intensive treatment algorithms for the management of glucose, lipids and blood pressure and aspirin therapy than in the RC arm.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The number of annual contacts between patients and GPs/nurses, the proportion of patients receiving prescriptions for cardiometabolic medication in years 1-5 after diabetes diagnosis and the adherence to prescription algorithms.

RESULTS

The difference in the number of annual GP contacts (β=0.65) and nurse contacts (β=-0.15) between the study arms was small and insignificant. Patients in the IT arm were more likely to receive glucose-lowering (OR=3.27), ACE-inhibiting (OR=2.03) and lipid-lowering drugs (OR=2.42, all p values <0.01) than patients in the RC arm. The prescription adherence varied between medication classes, but improved in both trial arms over the 5-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The adherence of GPs to different aspects of the trial protocol was mixed. Background changes in healthcare policy need to be considered as they have the potential to dilute differences in treatment intensity and hence incremental effects.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN86769081.

Computer Modeling of Diabetes and Its Transparency: A Report on the Eighth Mount Hood Challenge

OBJECTIVES

The Eighth Mount Hood Challenge (held in St. Gallen, Switzerland, in September 2016) evaluated the transparency of model input documentation from two published health economics studies and developed guidelines for improving transparency in the reporting of input data underlying model-based economic analyses in diabetes.

METHODS

Participating modeling groups were asked to reproduce the results of two published studies using the input data described in those articles. Gaps in input data were filled with assumptions reported by the modeling groups. Goodness of fit between the results reported in the target studies and the groups' replicated outputs was evaluated using the slope of linear regression line and the coefficient of determination (R²). After a general discussion of the results, a diabetes-specific checklist for the transparency of model input was developed.

RESULTS

Seven groups participated in the transparency challenge. The reporting of key model input parameters in the two studies, including the baseline characteristics of simulated patients, treatment effect and treatment intensification threshold assumptions, treatment effect evolution, prediction of complications and costs data, was inadequately transparent (and often missing altogether). Not surprisingly, goodness of fit was better for the study that reported its input data with more transparency. To improve the transparency in diabetes modeling, the Diabetes Modeling Input Checklist listing the minimal input data required for reproducibility in most diabetes modeling applications was developed.

CONCLUSIONS

Transparency of diabetes model inputs is important to the reproducibility and credibility of simulation results. In the Eighth Mount Hood Challenge, the Diabetes Modeling Input Checklist was developed with the goal of improving the transparency of input data reporting and reproducibility of diabetes simulation model results.

Economic Evaluation of Quality Improvement Interventions Designed to Improve Glycemic Control in Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Weighted Regression Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Quality improvement (QI) interventions can improve glycemic control, but little is known about their value. We systematically reviewed economic evaluations of QI interventions for glycemic control among adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used English-language studies from high-income countries that evaluated organizational changes and reported program and utilization-related costs, chosen from PubMed, EconLit, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, New York Academy of Medicine's Grey Literature Report, and WorldCat (January 2004 to August 2016). We extracted data regarding intervention, study design, change in HbA1c, time horizon, perspective, incremental net cost (studies lasting ≤3 years), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (studies lasting ≥20 years), and study quality. Weighted least-squares regression analysis was used to estimate mean changes in HbA1c and incremental net cost.

RESULTS

Of 3,646 records, 46 unique studies were eligible. Across 19 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), HbA1c declined by 0.26% (95% CI 0.17-0.35) or 3 mmol/mol (2 to 4) relative to usual care. In 8 RCTs lasting ≤3 years, incremental net costs were $116 (95% CI -$612 to $843) per patient annually. Long-term ICERs were $100,000-$115,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in 3 RCTs, $50,000-$99,999/QALY in 1 RCT, $0-$49,999/QALY in 4 RCTs, and dominant in 1 RCT. Results were more favorable in non-RCTs. Our limitations include the fact that the studies had diverse designs and involved moderate risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Diverse multifaceted QI interventions that lower HbA1c appear to be a fair-to-good value relative to usual care, depending on society's willingness to pay for improvements in health.

Immunosuppressive therapy for kidney transplantation in adults: a systematic review and economic model

BACKGROUND

End-stage renal disease is a long-term irreversible decline in kidney function requiring renal replacement therapy: kidney transplantation, haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis. The preferred option is kidney transplantation, followed by immunosuppressive therapy (induction and maintenance therapy) to reduce the risk of kidney rejection and prolong graft survival.

OBJECTIVES

To review and update the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of basiliximab (BAS) (Simulect(®), Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd) and rabbit anti-human thymocyte immunoglobulin (rATG) (Thymoglobulin(®), Sanofi) as induction therapy, and immediate-release tacrolimus (TAC) (Adoport(®), Sandoz; Capexion(®), Mylan; Modigraf(®), Astellas Pharma; Perixis(®), Accord Healthcare; Prograf(®), Astellas Pharma; Tacni(®), Teva; Vivadex(®), Dexcel Pharma), prolonged-release tacrolimus (Advagraf(®) Astellas Pharma), belatacept (BEL) (Nulojix(®), Bristol-Myers Squibb), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) (Arzip(®), Zentiva; CellCept(®), Roche Products; Myfenax(®), Teva), mycophenolate sodium (MPS) (Myfortic(®), Novartis Pharmaceuticals UK Ltd), sirolimus (SRL) (Rapamune(®), Pfizer) and everolimus (EVL) (Certican(®), Novartis) as maintenance therapy in adult renal transplantation.

METHODS

Clinical effectiveness searches were conducted until 18 November 2014 in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (via Wiley Online Library) and Web of Science (via ISI), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and Health Technology Assessment (The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library) and Health Management Information Consortium (via Ovid). Cost-effectiveness searches were conducted until 18 November 2014 using a costs or economic literature search filter in MEDLINE (via Ovid), EMBASE (via Ovid), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (via Wiley Online Library), Web of Science (via ISI), Health Economic Evaluations Database (via Wiley Online Library) and the American Economic Association's electronic bibliography (via EconLit, EBSCOhost). Included studies were selected according to predefined methods and criteria. A random-effects model was used to analyse clinical effectiveness data (odds ratios for binary data and mean differences for continuous data). Network meta-analyses were undertaken within a Bayesian framework. A new discrete time-state transition economic model (semi-Markov) was developed, with acute rejection, graft function (GRF) and new-onset diabetes mellitus used to extrapolate graft survival. Recipients were assumed to be in one of three health states: functioning graft, graft loss or death.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine randomised controlled trials (RCTs), of variable quality, were included. For induction therapy, no treatment appeared more effective than another in reducing graft loss or mortality. Compared with placebo/no induction, rATG and BAS appeared more effective in reducing biopsy-proven acute rejection (BPAR) and BAS appeared more effective at improving GRF. For maintenance therapy, no treatment was better for all outcomes and no treatment appeared most effective at reducing graft loss. BEL + MMF appeared more effective than TAC + MMF and SRL + MMF at reducing mortality. MMF + CSA (ciclosporin), TAC + MMF, SRL + TAC, TAC + AZA (azathioprine) and EVL + CSA appeared more effective than CSA + AZA and EVL + MPS at reducing BPAR. SRL + AZA, TAC + AZA, TAC + MMF and BEL + MMF appeared to improve GRF compared with CSA + AZA and MMF + CSA. In the base-case deterministic and probabilistic analyses, BAS, MMF and TAC were predicted to be cost-effective at £20,000 and £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). When comparing all regimens, only BAS + TAC + MMF was cost-effective at £20,000 and £30,000 per QALY.

LIMITATIONS

For included trials, there was substantial methodological heterogeneity, few trials reported follow-up beyond 1 year, and there were insufficient data to perform subgroup analysis. Treatment discontinuation and switching were not modelled.

FUTURE WORK

High-quality, better-reported, longer-term RCTs are needed. Ideally, these would be sufficiently powered for subgroup analysis and include health-related quality of life as an outcome.

CONCLUSION

Only a regimen of BAS induction followed by maintenance with TAC and MMF is likely to be cost-effective at £20,000-30,000 per QALY.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013189.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Incremental Costs and Cost Effectiveness of Intensive Treatment in Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes Detected by Screening in the ADDITION-UK Trial: An Update with Empirical Trial-Based Cost Data

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty about the cost effectiveness of early intensive treatment versus routine care in individuals with type 2 diabetes detected by screening.

OBJECTIVES

To derive a trial-informed estimate of the incremental costs of intensive treatment as delivered in the Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen-Detected Diabetes in Primary Care-Europe (ADDITION) trial and to revisit the long-term cost-effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the UK National Health Service.

METHODS

We analyzed the electronic primary care records of a subsample of the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort (n = 173). Unit costs of used primary care services were taken from the published literature. Incremental annual costs of intensive treatment versus routine care in years 1 to 5 after diagnosis were calculated using multilevel generalized linear models. We revisited the long-term cost-utility analyses for the ADDITION-UK trial cohort and reported results for ADDITION-Cambridge using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model and the trial-informed cost estimates according to a previously developed evaluation framework.

RESULTS

Incremental annual costs of intensive treatment over years 1 to 5 averaged £29.10 (standard error = £33.00) for consultations with general practitioners and nurses and £54.60 (standard error = £28.50) for metabolic and cardioprotective medication. For ADDITION-UK, over the 10-, 20-, and 30-year time horizon, adjusted incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 0.014, 0.043, and 0.048, and adjusted incremental costs were £1,021, £1,217, and £1,311, resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £71,232/QALY, £28,444/QALY, and £27,549/QALY, respectively. Respective incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for ADDITION-Cambridge were slightly higher.

CONCLUSIONS

The incremental costs of intensive treatment as delivered in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial were lower than expected. Given UK willingness-to-pay thresholds in patients with screen-detected diabetes, intensive treatment is of borderline cost effectiveness over a time horizon of 20 years and more.

Cost-effectiveness of gastric band surgery for overweight but not obese adults with type 2 diabetes in the U.S

AIM

To determine the cost-effectiveness of gastric band surgery in overweight but not obese people who receive standard diabetes care.

METHOD

A microsimulation model (United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study outcomes model) was used to project diabetes outcomes and costs from a two-year Australian randomized trial of gastric band (GB) surgery in overweight but not obese people (BMI 25 to 30kg/m²) on to a comparable population of U.S. adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (N=254). Estimates of cost-effectiveness were calculated based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for different treatment scenarios. Costs were inflated to 2015 U.S. dollar values and an ICER of less than $50,000 per QALY gained was considered cost-effective.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for GB surgery at two years exceeded $90,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained but decreased to $52,000, $29,000 and $22,000 when the health benefits of surgery were assumed to endure for 5, 10 and 15 years respectively. The cost-effectiveness of GB surgery was sensitive to utility gained from weight loss and, to a lesser degree, the costs of GB surgery. However, the cost-effectiveness of GB surgery was affected minimally by improvements in HbA1c, systolic blood pressure and cholesterol.

CONCLUSIONS

GB surgery for overweight but not obese people with T2D appears to be cost-effective in the U.S. setting if weight loss endures for more than five years. Health utility gained from weight loss is a critical input to cost-effectiveness estimates and therefore should be routinely measured in populations undergoing bariatric surgery.

Cost Effectiveness of Dulaglutide Compared with Liraglutide and Glargine in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Diabetes treatment includes very diverse drugs. It is essential to identify which drugs offer the best value for their costs.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate comparative cost effectiveness for treating diabetes mellitus with dulaglutide, liraglutide, or glargine in Colombia.

METHODS

A Markov model including diabetic microvascular and macrovascular complications was used to estimate cost-effectiveness. We used annual cycles, a 5-year time horizon, 5% discount rate, and third-party payer's perspective. Main outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Transition probabilities were obtained from primary studies and costs from local databases and studies. We used a threshold of 3 times the Colombian per capita gross domestic product (US $17,270 for 2015; US $1 = 2,743 Columbian pesos) to assess cost effectiveness.

RESULTS

Total costs related to dulaglutide, liraglutide, and glargine were US $8,633, US $10,756, and US $5,783, yielding 3.311 QALYs, 3.229 QALYs, and 3.156 QALYs, respectively. Dulaglutide dominated liraglutide given lower total costs and higher QALYs. The estimated ICER for dulaglutide compared with glargine was US $18,385, greater than the accepted threshold. Sensibility analysis shows that decreased dulaglutide cost, increased consumption of glargine, nondaily injection, and number and cost of glucometry could result in ICERs lower than the threshold. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed consistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

This estimation indicates that dulaglutide dominates liraglutide. Its ICER is, however, greater than the accepted threshold for Colombia in base case compared with glargine. By increasing population weight or glargine consumption, dulaglutide becomes cost effective compared with glargine, which could identify a niche where dulaglutide is the best option.

Glycemic Control for Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Our Evolving Faith in the Face of Evidence

BACKGROUND

We sought to determine the concordance between the accumulating evidence about the impact of tight versus less tight glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus since the publication of UKPDS (UK Prospective Diabetes Study) in 1998 until 2015 with the views about that evidence published in journal articles and practice guidelines.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched in top general medicine and specialty journals for articles referring to glycemic control appearing between 2006 and 2015 and identified the latest practice guidelines. To summarize the evidence, we included all published systematic reviews and meta-analyses of contemporary randomized trials of glycemic control measuring patient-important microvascular and macrovascular outcomes, and completed a meta-analysis of their follow-up extensions. We identified 16 guidelines and 328 statements. The body of evidence produced estimates warranting moderate confidence. This evidence reported no significant impact of tight glycemic control on the risk of dialysis/transplantation/renal death, blindness, or neuropathy. In the past decade, however, most published statements (77%-100%) and guidelines (95%) unequivocally endorsed benefit. There is also no significant effect on all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, or stroke; however, there is a consistent 15% relative-risk reduction of nonfatal myocardial infarction. Between 2006 and 2008, most statements (47%-83%) endorsed the benefit; after 2008 (ACCORD), only a minority (21%-36%) did.

CONCLUSIONS

Discordance exists between the research evidence and academic and clinical policy statements about the value of tight glycemic control to reduce micro- and macrovascular complications. This discordance may distort priorities in the research and practice agendas designed to improve the lives of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Review: PROactive 03: Pioglitazone, type 2 diabetes and reducing macrovascular events — economic implications?

conomic value of medicines, medical devices and other technologies is an increasingly important consideration in healthcare management. Conducting high quality economic analyses alongside randomised controlled clinical trials (RCTs) is desirable since these offer timely information with high internal validity. The recent publication of the landmark PROactive study provides a relevant platform upon which to base a detailed economic evaluation of the possible additional benefit of pioglitazone over and above current best treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes with severe cardiovascular (CV) disease. Pioglitazone improved CV outcome and reduced the need to add insulin to existing therapy in individuals at high risk of further macrovascular events. The predefined economic analysis of this study using well-accepted methods will inform the cost effectiveness (CE) of pioglitazone confirming (or not) its value in the management of patients with type 2 diabetes with severe CV disease.

Cost-effectiveness analyses alongside randomised clinical trials

BackgroundMany health economists increasingly advocate the use of model-based evaluations rather than trial-based evaluations.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to review the merits and limitations of RCT-based evaluations of cost-effectiveness.

ResultsThe paper draws on the examples of large studies such as the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study and the Heart Protection Study to suggest that large randomised trials offer a number of advantages to health economists wishing to estimate cost-effectiveness, including access to patient-level data, unbiased estimates of resource use as well as effects, the estimation of cost-effectiveness in sub-groups of patients, and an enhanced ability to build and validate extrapolation models.

ConclusionsWhile many methodological issues remain to be resolved, the use of patient-level data derived from clinical trials as a basis for economic evaluations is likely to remain an important part of the health economics evidence base, and will also continue to provide the data required for methodological research.

Systemic sclerosis: The need for structured care

Autoimmune connective tissue diseases (CTDs) have a propensity to affect multiple organ systems as well as physical function, quality of life, and survival. Their clinical heterogeneity, multisystem involvement, and low worldwide prevalence present challenges for researchers to establish a study design to help better understand the course and outcomes of CTDs. Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a notable example of a CTD, wherein longitudinal cohort studies (LCS) have enabled us to elucidate disease manifestations, disease course, and risk and prognostic factors for clinically important outcomes, by embedding research in clinical practice. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed to better understand SSc especially with regard to recognizing organ involvement early, developing new therapies, optimizing the use of existing therapies, and defining treatment targets. The heterogeneous multi-organ nature of SSc would lend itself well to a structured model of care, wherein step-up treatment algorithms are used with the goal of attaining a prespecified treatment target. In this chapter, we discuss the rationale for a structured treatment approach in SSc and propose possible treatment algorithms for three of the more common disease manifestations, namely skin involvement, digital ulcers and gastrointestinal tract involvement. We discuss possible strategies for evaluating and implementing these algorithms in the setting of LCS. We conclude by presenting a research agenda for the development of structured models of care in SSc.

Synergistic association of combined glycemic and blood pressure level with risk of complications in US veterans with diabetes

OBJECTIVES

Hemoglobin A1c levels less than 7.0% and systolic blood pressure (SBP) less than 140 mmHg are each associated with lower risk of vascular complications in patients with diabetes mellitus. Associations between combined A1c level and SBP categories and risk of mortality and morbidity in diabetic patients are not well characterized.

METHODS

We examined 891 670 US diabetic veterans with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rates more than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m (mean age 67 ± 11 years, 97% men, 17% African-Americans). The associations of mutually exclusive combined categories of A1c (<6.5, 6.5-6.9, 7.0-7.9, 8.0-8.9, 9.0-9.9, and ≥10%) and SBP (<100, 100-119, 120-139, 140-159, 160-179, and ≥180 mmHg) with the risk of all-cause mortality and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), coronary heart disease, and stroke were examined in Cox models adjusted for baseline characteristics using patients with concomitant A1c 6.5-6.9% and SBP of 120-139 mmHg as the referent group.

RESULTS

A total of 221 529 (25%) patients died, and 178 588 (20%), 43 373 (5%) and 36 935 (4%) developed CKD, coronary heart disease and stroke, respectively, during a median follow-up of 7.4 years. SBP displayed a J-shaped association with each outcome except CKD risk that was linearly associated with SBP across all A1c categories. A1c above 7.0% was associated with monotonically worse outcomes for all end points in all SBP categories. Patients with the combined highest A1c and SBP levels experienced the worst outcomes.

CONCLUSION

SBP greater than 120-139 mmHg and A1c greater than 7.0% are associated with higher mortality and vascular complications in diabetic patients, independent of each other. Combined efforts to improve both glycemic and blood pressure control may synergistically improve outcomes in patients with normal kidney function.

Analyzing Health-Related Quality of Life in the EVOLVE Trial: The Joint Impact of Treatment and Clinical Events

BACKGROUND

The Evaluation of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower Cardiovascular Events (EVOLVE) clinical trial evaluated the effects of cinacalcet on clinical events in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (sHPT) who were on hemodialysis. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was assessed by a generic, preference-based health outcome measure (EQ-5D) at scheduled visits and after a study event. Here, we report the HRQoL analysis from EVOLVE.

METHODS

We assessed changes in HRQoL from baseline to scheduled visits, and estimated the acute (3 mo) and chronic (beyond 3 mo) effects of sHPT-related events on HRQoL using generalized estimating equation analysis controlling for baseline HRQoL and randomized assignment.

RESULTS

Data on HRQoL were available for 3547 of 3883 subjects, with 1650 events in the placebo and 1502 in the cinacalcet arm. At the study end, no difference in change from baseline HRQoL was observed in the direct comparison of EQ-5D by treatment arms. The regression analysis showed significant effects of events on HRQoL and a modest positive effect of cinacalcet. Estimated quality-adjusted life-year gains were of similar magnitude based on the observed data or the predictions from the model, with only a small gain in precision from the predicted analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

By contrast with a conventional comparison, a regression analysis demonstrated large decrements in HRQoL after events and a modest improvement in HRQoL with cinacalcet. As randomized controlled trials are rarely powered to detect differences in HRQoL, a prespecified regression analysis may be acceptable to improve precision of the effects and understand their origin.

Changes in Quality of Life Associated with Complications of Diabetes: Results from the ADVANCE Study

OBJECTIVE

To measure the impact of complications on summary measures of health-related quality of life among people with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Patients participating in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease:Preterax and Diamicron MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial were administered a health-related quality-of-life questionnaire, the three-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L), on four occasions over a 5-year period. We used two-way fixed-effects longitudinal regression models to investigate the impact of incident diabetes complications (stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, renal failure, blindness, and amputation) on EQ-5D-3L utility score (where 1 = perfect health), while controlling for characteristics of individuals that do not vary over time.

RESULTS

The effect of having any one of the seven complications was to reduce the EQ-5D-3L utility score by 0.054 (95% confidence interval 0.044-0.064), and this was not significantly affected by baseline age, sex, economic region, or the value set used to derive utilities. The complication with the largest disutility was amputation (0.122), followed by stroke (0.099), blindness (0.083), renal failure (0.049), heart failure (0.045), and myocardial infarction (0.026). Ischemic heart disease did not significantly reduce the utility score. Quality of life also declined with elapsed time-by an average of 0.006 per year, in addition to the effect of complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Common complications significantly reduce health-related quality of life. Utility scores derived from the EQ-5D-3L provide a potential measure that can be used to summarize patient-reported outcomes and inform health economic models. Prevention of complications is critical to reduce the progressive burden of declining quality of life for people with diabetes.

WITHDRAWN: Sulphonylurea monotherapy for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

The Cochrane Metabolic and Endocrine Disorders Group withdrew this review as of Issue 7, 2015 because of the involvement of one author (SS Lund) being employed in a pharmaceutical company. The authors of the review and the Cochrane Metabolic and Endocrine Disorders Group did not find that this was a breach of the rules of the Cochrane Collaboration at the time when it was published. However, after the publication of the review, the Cochrane Collaboration requested withdrawal of the review due to the employment of the author. A new protocol for a review to cover this topic will be published. This will have a new title and a markedly improved protocol fulfilling new and important developments and standards within the Cochrane Collaboration as well as an improved inclusion and search strategy making it necessary to embark on a completely new review project.

The editorial group responsible for this previously published document have withdrawn it from publication.

WITHDRAWN: Targeting intensive glycaemic control versus targeting conventional glycaemic control for type 2 diabetes mellitus

The Cochrane Metabolic and Endocrine Disorders Group withdrew this review as of Issue 7, 2015 because the involvement of two authors (C Hemmingsen and SS Lund) being employed in pharmaceutical companies. The authors of the review and the Cochrane Metabolic and Endocrine Disorders Group did not find that this was a breach of the rules of the Cochrane Collaboration at the time when it was published. However, after the publication of the review, the Cochrane Collaboration requested withdrawal of the review due to the employment of the two authors. A new protocol for a review to cover this topic will be published. This will have a new title and a markedly improved protocol fulfilling new and important developments and standards within the Cochrane Collaboration as well as an improved inclusion and search strategy making it necessary to embark on a completely new review project.

The editorial group responsible for this previously published document have withdrawn it from publication.

Is the current standard of care leading to cost-effective outcomes for patients with type 2 diabetes requiring insulin? A long-term health economic analysis for the UK

AIMS

The aim of the analysis was to investigate whether insulin intensification, based on the use of intensive insulin regimens as recommended by the current standard of care in routine clinical practice, would be cost-effective for patients with type 2 diabetes in the UK.

METHODS

Clinical data were derived from a retrospective analysis of 3185 patients with type 2 diabetes on basal insulin in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) general practice database. In total, 48% (614 patients) intensified insulin therapy, defined by adding bolus or premix insulin to a basal regimen, which was associated with a reduction in HbA1c and an increase in body mass index. Projections of clinical outcomes and costs (2011 GBP) over patients' lifetimes were made using a recently validated type 2 diabetes model.

RESULTS

Immediate insulin intensification was associated with improvements in life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy and time to onset of complications versus no intensification or delaying intensification by 2, 4, 6, or 8 years. Direct costs were higher with the insulin intensification strategy (due to the acquisition costs of insulin). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for insulin intensification were GBP 32,560, GBP 35,187, GBP 40,006, GBP 48,187 and GBP 55,431 per QALY gained versus delaying intensification 2, 4, 6 and 8 years, and no intensification, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although associated with improved clinical outcomes, insulin intensification as practiced in the UK has a relatively high cost per QALY and may not lead to cost-effective outcomes for patients with type 2 diabetes as currently defined by UK cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Cost-effectiveness of a diabetes group education program delivered by health promoters with a guiding style in underserved communities in Cape Town, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a group diabetes education program delivered by health promoters in community health centers in the Western Cape, South Africa.

METHODS

The effectiveness of the education program was derived from the outcomes of a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT). Incremental operational costs of the intervention, as implemented in the trial, were calculated. All these data were entered into a Markov micro-simulation model to simulate clinical outcomes and health costs that were expressed as an Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

The only significant effect from the RCT at one year was a reduction in blood pressure (systolic blood pressure -4.65 mmHg (95%CI:-9.18 to -0.12) and diastolic blood pressure -3.30 mmHg (95%CI:-5.35 to -1.26)). The ICER for the intervention, based on the assumption that the costs would recur every year and the effect could be maintained, was 1862 $/QALY gained.

CONCLUSION

A structured group education program performed by mid-level trained healthcare workers at community health centers, for the management of Type II diabetes in the Western Cape, South Africa is therefore cost-effective.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

This cost-effectiveness analysis supports the more widespread implementation of this intervention in primary care within South Africa.

Diabetes associated with early labor-force exit: a comparison of sixteen high-income countries

The economic burden of diabetes and the effects of the disease on the labor force are of substantial importance to policy makers. We examined the impact of diabetes on leaving the labor force across sixteen countries, using data about 66,542 participants in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe; the US Health and Retirement Survey; or the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. After matching people with diabetes to those without the disease in terms of age, sex, and years of education, we used Cox proportional hazards analyses to estimate the effect of diabetes on time of leaving the labor force. Across the sixteen countries, people diagnosed with diabetes had a 30 percent increase in the rate of labor-force exit, compared to people without the disease. The costs associated with earlier labor-force exit are likely to be substantial. These findings further support the value of greater public- and private-sector investment in preventing and managing diabetes.

Health economic evaluation of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a clinical practice focused review

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a growing healthcare burden primarily due to long-term complications. Strict glycemic control helps in preventing complications, and early introduction of insulin may be more cost-effective than maintaining patients on multiple oral agents. This is an expert opinion review based on English peer-reviewed articles (2000–2012) to discuss the health economic consequences of T2D treatment intensification. T2D costs are driven by inpatient care for treatment of diabetes complications (40%–60% of total cost), with drug therapy for glycemic control representing 18% of the total cost. Insulin therapy provides the most improved glycemic control and reduction of complications, although hypoglycemia and weight gain may occur. Early treatment intensification with insulin analogs in patients with poor glycemic control appears to be cost-effective and improves clinical outcomes.

Blood pressure control for diabetic retinopathy

BACKGROUND

Diabetic retinopathy is a common complication of diabetes and a leading cause of visual impairment and blindness. Research has established the importance of blood glucose control to prevent development and progression of the ocular complications of diabetes. Simultaneous blood pressure control has been advocated for the same purpose, but findings reported from individual studies have supported varying conclusions regarding the ocular benefit of interventions on blood pressure.

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim of this review was to summarize the existing evidence regarding the effect of interventions to control or reduce blood pressure levels among diabetics on incidence and progression of diabetic retinopathy, preservation of visual acuity, adverse events, quality of life, and costs. A secondary aim was to compare classes of anti-hypertensive medications with respect to the same outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched a number of electronic databases including CENTRAL as well as ongoing trial registries. We last searched the electronic databases on 25 April 2014. We also reviewed reference lists of review articles and trial reports selected for inclusion. In addition, we contacted investigators of trials with potentially pertinent data.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included in this review randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in which either type 1 or type 2 diabetic participants, with or without hypertension, were assigned randomly to intense versus less intense blood pressure control, to blood pressure control versus usual care or no intervention on blood pressure, or to different classes of anti-hypertensive agents versus placebo.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Pairs of review authors independently reviewed titles and abstracts from electronic and manual searches and the full text of any document that appeared to be relevant. We assessed included trials independently for risk of bias with respect to outcomes reported in this review. We extracted data regarding trial characteristics, incidence and progression of retinopathy, visual acuity, quality of life, and cost-effectiveness at annual intervals after study entry whenever provided in published reports and other documents available from included trials.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 15 RCTs, conducted primarily in North America and Europe, that had enrolled 4157 type 1 and 9512 type 2 diabetic participants, ranging from 16 to 2130 participants in individual trials. In 10 of the 15 RCTs, one group of participants was assigned to one or more anti-hypertensive agents and the control group received placebo. In three trials, intense blood pressure control was compared to less intense blood pressure control. In the remaining two trials, blood pressure control was compared with usual care. Five of the 15 trials enrolled type 1 diabetics, and 10 trials enrolled type 2 diabetics. Six trials were sponsored entirely by pharmaceutical companies, seven trials received partial support from pharmaceutical companies, and two studies received support from government-sponsored grants and institutional support.Study designs, populations, interventions, and lengths of follow-up (range one to nine years) varied among the included trials. Overall, the quality of the evidence for individual outcomes was low to moderate. For the primary outcomes, incidence and progression of retinopathy, the quality of evidence was downgraded due to inconsistency and imprecision of estimates from individual studies and differing characteristics of participants.For primary outcomes among type 1 diabetics, one of the five trials reported incidence of retinopathy and one trial reported progression of retinopathy after 4 to 5 years of treatment and follow-up; four of the five trials reported a combined outcome of incidence and progression over the same time interval. Among type 2 diabetics, 5 of the 10 trials reported incidence of diabetic retinopathy and 3 trials reported progression of retinopathy; one of the 10 trials reported a combined outcome of incidence and progression during a 4- to 5-year follow-up period. One trial in which type 2 diabetics participated had reported no primary (or secondary) outcome targeted for this review.The evidence from these trials supported a benefit of more intensive blood pressure control intervention with respect to 4- to 5-year incidence of diabetic retinopathy (estimated risk ratio (RR) 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 0.92) and the combined outcome of incidence and progression (estimated RR 0.78; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.97). The available evidence provided less support for a benefit with respect to 4- to 5-year progression of diabetic retinopathy (point estimate was closer to 1 than point estimates for incidence and combined incidence and progression, and the CI overlapped 1; estimated RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.05). The available evidence regarding progression to proliferative diabetic retinopathy or clinically significant macular edema or moderate to severe loss of best-corrected visual acuity did not support a benefit of intervention on blood pressure: estimated RRs and 95% CIs 0.95 (0.83 to 1.09) and 1.06 (0.85 to 1.33), respectively, after 4 to 5 years of follow-up. Findings within subgroups of trial participants (type 1 and type 2 diabetics; participants with normal blood pressure levels at baseline and those with elevated levels) were similar to overall findings.The adverse event reported most often (7 of 15 trials) was death, yielding an estimated RR 0.86 (95% CI 0.64 to 1.14). Hypotension was reported from three trials; the estimated RR was 2.08 (95% CI 1.68 to 2.57). Other adverse ocular events were reported from single trials.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension is a well-known risk factor for several chronic conditions in which lowering blood pressure has proven to be beneficial. The available evidence supports a beneficial effect of intervention to reduce blood pressure with respect to preventing diabetic retinopathy for up to 4 to 5 years. However, the lack of evidence to support such intervention to slow progression of diabetic retinopathy or to prevent other outcomes considered in this review, along with the relatively modest support for the beneficial effect on incidence, weakens the conclusion regarding an overall benefit of intervening on blood pressure solely to prevent diabetic retinopathy.

Utility estimates for patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus after experiencing a myocardial infarction or stroke: a systematic review

A systematic review identified studies eliciting utility decrements from myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and examined their use in economic models of new diabetes treatments. In 16 utility studies in patients with T2DM, utility decrements in the first year ranged from 0.017 to 0.226 for MI and from 0.034 to 0.590 for stroke. Sixteen of 19 economic evaluations of new treatments for T2DM included utility decrements for an MI and/or stroke from one of the 16 utility studies. Decrements for MI ranged from 0.012 to 0.180 in the first year. Decrements for stroke ranged from 0.044 to 0.690 in the first year. Utility studies in patients with T2DM provide little information about changes in utility decrements by time since the event and by disease severity. Cost-effectiveness studies do not always indicate how these values were used in the analysis.

Cost-effectiveness of once daily GLP-1 receptor agonist lixisenatide compared to bolus insulin both in combination with basal insulin for the treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes in Norway

BACKGROUND

Lixisenatide is a potent, selective and short-acting once daily prandial glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist which lowers glycohemoglobin and body weight by clinically significant amounts in patients with type 2 diabetes treated with basal insulin, with limited risk of hypoglycemia.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the cost-effectiveness of lixisenatide versus bolus insulin, both in combination with basal insulin, in patients with type 2 diabetes in Norway.

METHODS

The IMS CORE Diabetes Model, a non-product-specific and validated simulation model, was used to make clinical and cost projections. Transition probabilities, risk adjustments and the progression of complication risk factors were derived from the UK Prospective Diabetes Study, supplemented with Norwegian data. Patients were assumed to receive combination treatment with basal insulin, lixisenatide or bolus insulin therapy for 3 years, followed by intensification of a basal-bolus insulin regimen for their remaining lifetime. Simulated healthcare costs, taken from the public payer perspective, were derived from microcosting and diagnosis related groups, discounted at 4% per annum and reported in Norwegian krone (NOK). Productivity costs were also captured based on extractions from the Norwegian Labor and Welfare Administration. Health state utilities were derived from a systematic literature review. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Lixisenatide in combination with basal insulin was associated with increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and reduced lifetime healthcare costs compared to bolus insulin in combination with basal insulin in patients with Type 2 diabetes, and can be considered dominant. The net monetary benefit of lixisenatide versus bolus insulin was NOK 39,369 per patient. Results were sensitive to discounting, the application of excess body weight associated disutility and uncertainty surrounding the changes in HbA1c.

CONCLUSIONS

Lixisenatide may be considered an economically efficient therapy in combination with basal insulin in the Norwegian setting, due to cost savings, weight loss and associated gains in health-related quality of life.

Incremental costs associated with myocardial infarction and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: an overview for economic modeling

OBJECTIVE

To identify cost estimates related to myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) for use in economic models.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted. Electronic databases and conference abstracts were screened against inclusion criteria, which included studies performed in patients who had T2DM before experiencing an MI or stroke. Primary cost studies and economic models were included. Costs were converted to 2012 pounds sterling.

RESULTS

Fifty-four studies were identified: 13 primary cost studies and 41 economic evaluations using secondary sources for complication costs. Primary studies provided costs from 10 countries. Estimates for a fatal event ranged from £2482-£5222 for MI and from £4900-£6694 for stroke. Costs for the year a non-fatal event occurred ranged from £5071-£29,249 for MI and from £5171-£38,732 for stroke. Annual follow-up costs ranged from £945-£1616 for an MI and from £4704-£12,926 for a stroke. Economic evaluations from 12 countries were identified, and costs of complications showed similar variability to the primary studies.

DISCUSSION

The costs identified within primary studies varied between and within countries. Many studies used costs estimated in studies not specific to patients with T2DM. Data gaps included a detailed breakdown of resource use, which affected the ability to compare data across countries.

CONCLUSIONS

In the development of economic models for patients with T2DM, the use of accurate estimates of costs associated with MI and stroke is important. When country-specific costs are not available, clear justification for the choice of estimates should be provided.