Trajectories of childhood BMI and adult diabetes: the Bogalusa Heart Study

Child-to-adult body size change and risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Childhood overweight increases the risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in adulthood. However, the impact of childhood leanness on adult obesity and disease risk has been overlooked. We examined the independent and combined influences of child and adult body size on the risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

Data from the UK Biobank on 364,695 individuals of European ancestry and free of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease were divided into nine categories based on their self-reported body size at age 10 and measured BMI in adulthood. After a median follow-up of 12.8 years, 33,460 individuals had developed type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. We used Cox regression models to assess the associations of body size categories with disease incidence.

RESULTS

Individuals with low body size in childhood and high body size in adulthood had the highest risk of type 2 diabetes (HR 4.73; 95% CI 4.50, 4.99), compared to those with average body size in both childhood and adulthood. This was significantly higher than the risk in those with high body size in both childhood and adulthood (HR 4.05; 95% CI 3.84, 4.26). By contrast, cardiovascular disease risk was determined by adult body size, irrespective of childhood body size.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Low body size in childhood exacerbates the risk of type 2 diabetes associated with adult obesity but not the risk of cardiovascular disease. Thus, promoting healthy weight management from childhood to adulthood, among lean children, is crucial.

Low birthweight and overweight during childhood and young adulthood and the risk of type 2 diabetes in men: a population-based cohort study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

This study aimed to determine the relative contributions of low birthweight and overweight during childhood and young adulthood to the risk of type 2 diabetes in men.

METHODS

We included 34,231 men born between1945 and 1961 from the population-based BMI Epidemiology Study (BEST) Gothenburg with data on birthweight and overweight status in childhood (8 years, BMI >17.9 kg/m2) and young adulthood (20 years, BMI >25 kg/m2). Participants were followed from age 30 years until 31 December 2019. Information on type 2 diabetes diagnoses was retrieved from Swedish national registers. HRs and 95% CIs for the risk of early (≤59.4 years) and late (>59.4 years) type 2 diabetes were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

During follow-up, a total of 2733 cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed. Birthweight below the median (<3.6 kg) and overweight at age 20 (BMI >25 kg/m2), but not overweight at age 8 (BMI >17.9 kg/m2), were associated with an increased risk of early and late type 2 diabetes. Of note, a birthweight below the median followed by overweight at age 20 years was associated with a substantially increased risk of early type 2 diabetes (HR 6.07, 95% CI 5.08, 7.27), and a low birthweight (≤2.5 kg) combined with overweight at age 20 years was associated with a massive risk of early type 2 diabetes (HR 9.94, 95% CI 6.57, 15.05).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Low birthweight and overweight in young adulthood are the major developmental determinants of adult type 2 diabetes risk in men. They contribute in an additive manner to the risk of type 2 diabetes. To reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes, young adult overweight should be avoided, especially in boys with a low birthweight.

DATA AVAILABILITY

The SPSS analysis code, the R analysis code and a data dictionary have been made available in an online repository ( https://osf.io/bx2as/ ).

The impact of age-specific childhood body-mass index on adult cardiometabolic traits: a Mendelian randomization study

Objective

To evaluate the causal relationship between childhood body-mass index (BMI) at different ages and adult cardiometabolic traits.

Methods

We retrieved genetic instrument variables (IVs) for exposures (standardized BMI at newborn, infant, toddler and late childhood), cardiometabolic traits and potential confounders or mediators (adult BMI, SHBG, testosterone and age at menarche) from the corresponding genome-wide association analysis. We performed univariate and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to dissect associations between age-specific childhood BMI and adult cardiometabolic outcomes. Odds ratio was used to present the direction of the causal association.

Results

In univariate MR, higher newborn BMI was causally associated with reduced risk for type 2 diabetes in women. Late childhood BMI was associated with increased risk for female diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD), myocardial infarction (MI), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in general population. Among these associations, only association between late childhood BMI with MI remained significant after adjusting for adult male BMI and sex hormones, (OR = 1.120, 95% CI 1.023-1.226, p = 0.014). Besides, in multivariable MR, we found evidence for causal association between newborn BMI with reduced risk for CAD (OR = 0.862, 95% CI 0.751-0.989, p = 0.034) and MI (OR = 0.864, 95% CI 0.752-0.991, p = 0.037) in men. No obvious impact of infant or toddler BMI was identified on the above-mentioned diseases. For continuous cardiometabolic traits, in all age epochs except infant, higher BMI was associated with increased level of fasting glucose in women.

Conclusion

BMI at birth and late childhood exerts different impact on adult cardiometabolic diseases, while BMI at infant and toddler ages is not causally associated with these outcomes. The effect of childhood BMI may be influenced by sex disparities.

Association of birth and childhood weight with risk of chronic diseases and multimorbidity in adulthood

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the relationship between early life body size and occurrence of life-course multiple chronic diseases (multimorbidity). We aim to evaluate associations of birth weight, childhood body size, and their changes with the risks of chronic diseases and multimorbidity.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 246,495 UK Biobank participants (aged 40-69 years) who reported birth weight and childhood body size at 10 years old. Birth weight was categorized into low, normal, and high; childhood body size was reported as being thinner, average, or plumper. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more of 38 chronic conditions retrieved from inpatient hospital data until 31 December, 2020. The Cox regression and quasi-Poisson mixed effects models were used to estimate the associations.

RESULTS

We show that 57,071 (23.2%) participants develop multimorbidity. Low birth weight (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-1.33), high birth weight (HR 1.02, 95% CI > 1.00-1.05), thinner (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.18-1.23) and plumper body size (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04-1.09) are associated with higher risks of multimorbidity. A U-shaped relationship between birth weight and multimorbidity is observed. Changing to be thinner or plumper is associated with multimorbidity and many conditions, compared to changing to be average.

CONCLUSIONS

Low birth weight, being thinner and changing to have a thinner body size in childhood are associated with higher risks of developing multimorbidity and many chronic conditions in adulthood. Early monitoring and maintaining a normal body size in childhood could have life-course benefits for preventing multimorbidity above and beyond individual conditions.

BMI growth trajectory from birth to 5 years and its sex-specific association with prepregnant BMI and gestational weight gain

Objective

The purpose of the study was to identify the latent body mass index (BMI) z-score trajectories of children from birth to 5 years of age and evaluate their sex-specific association with prepregnant BMI and gestational weight gain (GWG).

Methods

This was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study performed in China. In total, three distinct BMI-z trajectories from birth to 5 years of age were determined for both genders using the latent class growth modeling. The logistic regression model was used to assess the associations of maternal prepregnant BMI and GWG with childhood BMI-z growth trajectories.

Results

Excessive GWG increased the risks of children falling into high-BMI-z trajectory relative to adequate GWG (OR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.29, 3.20) in boys; girls born to mothers with prepregnancy underweight had a higher risk of low-BMI-z trajectory than girls born to mothers with prepregnancy adequate weight (OR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.22, 2.79).

Conclusion

BMI-z growth trajectories of children from 0 to 5 years of age have population heterogeneity. Prepregnant BMI and GWG are associated with child BMI-z trajectories. It is necessary to monitor weight status before and during pregnancy to promote maternal and child health.

Effect of cumulative body mass index exposure and long-term related change on incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the association between cumulative body mass index (BMI) and long-term BMI change with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

We included 19 477 adult participants (12 556 men and 6921 women) from the Kailuan study from January 2006 to December 2013. Cumulative BMI was assessed using a quadratic mixed-effects method by sex before the index year; then, the NAFLD outcome was followed till December 2019. The long-term BMI change was calculated as the percentage change in average cumulative BMI from the baseline BMI.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5.63 years, 6229 individuals developed incident NAFLD. Independent of baseline BMI, the NAFLD risk escalated with the cumulative BMI with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 1.60 (1.48-1.73) and 2.28 (2.06-2.53) for the intermediate tertile and the highest tertile (P_trend  <0.001). The association is amplified in women and the young. Compared to a stable weight (BMI change: -3% to 3%), NAFLD risk increased in the baseline BMI < 24 kg/m² group with weight gain (BMI change: >3%) and decreased in BMI ≥24 kg/m² group with weight loss (BMI change: <-3%) for men and women. However, we only observed a decreased NAFLD risk in men (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.69-0.97) with BMI < 24 kg/m² and weight loss.

CONCLUSIONS

Monitoring cumulative BMI may help to identify high-risk NAFLD populations. The association between weight gain or loss varies by sex and baseline BMI, suggesting the importance of individualized weight management for NAFLD prevention.

β Cell mass expansion during puberty involves serotonin signaling and determines glucose homeostasis in adulthood

Puberty is associated with transient insulin resistance that normally recedes at the end of puberty; however, in overweight children, insulin resistance persists, leading to an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. The mechanisms whereby pancreatic β cells adapt to pubertal insulin resistance, and how they are affected by the metabolic status, have not been investigated. Here, we show that puberty is associated with a transient increase in β cell proliferation in rats and humans of both sexes. In rats, β cell proliferation correlated with a rise in growth hormone (GH) levels. Serum from pubertal rats and humans promoted β cell proliferation, suggesting the implication of a circulating factor. In pubertal rat islets, expression of genes of the GH/serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine [5-HT]) pathway underwent changes consistent with a proliferative effect. Inhibition of the pro-proliferative 5-HT receptor isoform HTR2B blocked the increase in β cell proliferation in pubertal islets ex vivo and in vivo. Peripubertal metabolic stress blunted β cell proliferation during puberty and led to altered glucose homeostasis later in life. This study identifies a role of GH/GH receptor/5-HT/HTR2B signaling in the control of β cell mass expansion during puberty and identifies a mechanistic link between pubertal obesity and the risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

Diagnostic test accuracy of waist-to-height ratio as a screening tool for cardiovascular risk in children and adolescents: a meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) is a controversial evaluation index of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in children and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the accuracy of WHtR as a measure to screen for clusters of at least one CVRF (CVRF₁), two CVRFs (CVRF₂), and three CVRFs (CVRF₃) in different ages, sexes, regions and cut-offs.

METHODS

The PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCOhost, Springer, Taylor & Francis Online, Wiley Online Library, Wanfang, and CNKI databases were searched for eligible publications up to June 2021. The QUADAS-2 checklist was used to assess the methodology of the included studies.

RESULTS

Twenty-two studies that evaluated 85281 children and adolescents aged 5-19 years were included in the meta-analysis. The AUSROC values were 0.56 (95% CI: 0.54-0.57), 0.82 (95% CI: 0.81-0.83), and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.89-0.90) for CVRF₁, CVRF₂, and CVRF₃, respectively. Higher AUSROC values were found for adolescents (12-19 years), that is, 0.91 (95% CI: 0.88-0.93), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.87-0.92) for males, and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.90-0.91) for a cut-off of ≥ 0.51 in the identification of CVRF₃.

CONCLUSION

WHtR can be used as an accurate screening tool for CVRF₃ and CVRF₂ in children and adolescents, and it is recommended to select different cut-offs according to different ages, sexes, and regions.

Childhood waist growth curves and adult diabetes

Our primary objectives are to empirically identify distinct childhood groups based on trajectories of waist circumference (WC) and waist circumference index measurements, and then to estimate associations between these groups and adult diabetes incidence, as well as other outcomes, including blood pressure, body size, body composition, and hemoglobin levels. Childhood WC and height measurements as well as various adult measurements are taken from participants in the Fels Longitudinal Study. Childhood groups are identified using group-based trajectory modeling. Associations between the resulting group probabilities and adult outcomes are examined using mixed models. Our results show that distinct childhood groups are identifiable for both waist size measurements, with growth curves exhibited by these groups becoming distinguishably separate at around 4 years of age. Higher probabilities for groups exhibiting the larger waist size for either measurement were estimated to have higher risks of developing diabetes in adulthood. Associations were also observed between group probabilities and systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and various anthropomorphic measurements, with most associations consistently occurring in early adulthood. These findings expand upon the existing literature, showing that childhood trends in waist size, distinguishable at ages as early as 4 years, are associated with adult Type-2 diabetes.

Adolescent and Childhood Obesity and Excess Morbidity and Mortality in Young Adulthood-a Systematic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Rates of childhood obesity have been soaring in recent decades. The association between obesity in adulthood and excess morbidity and mortality has been readily established, whereas the association of childhood and adolescent obesity has not. The purpose of this review is to summarize existing data regarding the association of the presence of obesity in childhood/adolescence and early-onset adverse outcomes in adulthood, with specific focus on young adults under the age of 45 years.

RECENT FINDINGS

Diabetes, cancer, and cardiometabolic outcomes in midlife are closely linked to childhood and adolescent obesity. Childhood and adolescent obesity confer major risks of excess and premature morbidity and mortality, which may be evident before age 30 years in both sexes. The scientific literature is mixed regarding the independent risk of illness, which may be attributed to childhood BMI regardless of adult BMI, and additional data is required to establish causality between the two. Nonetheless, the increasing prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity may impose an increase of disease burden in midlife, emphasizing the need for effective interventions to be implemented at a young age.

Data-driven identification of temporal glucose patterns in a large cohort of nondiabetic patients with COVID-19 using time-series clustering

Objective

Hyperglycemia has emerged as an important clinical manifestation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in diabetic and nondiabetic patients. Whether these glycemic changes are specific to a subgroup of patients and persist following COVID-19 resolution remains to be elucidated. This work aimed to characterize longitudinal random blood glucose in a large cohort of nondiabetic patients diagnosed with COVID-19.

Materials and Methods

De-identified electronic medical records of 7502 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 without prior diagnosis of diabetes between January 1, 2020, and November 18, 2020, were accessed through the TriNetX Research Network. Glucose measurements, diagnostic codes, medication codes, laboratory values, vital signs, and demographics were extracted before, during, and after COVID-19 diagnosis. Unsupervised time-series clustering algorithms were trained to identify distinct clusters of glucose trajectories. Cluster associations were tested for demographic variables, COVID-19 severity, glucose-altering medications, glucose values, and new-onset diabetes diagnoses.

Results

Time-series clustering identified a low-complexity model with 3 clusters and a high-complexity model with 19 clusters as the best-performing models. In both models, cluster membership differed significantly by death status, COVID-19 severity, and glucose levels. Clusters membership in the 19 cluster model also differed significantly by age, sex, and new-onset diabetes mellitus.

Discussion and Conclusion

This work identified distinct longitudinal blood glucose changes associated with subclinical glucose dysfunction in the low-complexity model and increased new-onset diabetes incidence in the high-complexity model. Together, these findings highlight the utility of data-driven techniques to elucidate longitudinal glycemic dysfunction in patients with COVID-19 and provide clinical evidence for further evaluation of the role of COVID-19 in diabetes pathogenesis.

BMI trajectory and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes among middle-aged women

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about how weight trajectories among women during menopausal transition and beyond may be related to risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The aim of this study was to examine associations between body mass index (BMI) trajectories over 20 years, age of obesity onset, cumulative obese-years and incidence of T2DM among middle-aged women.

METHODS AND RESULTS

12,302 women enrolled in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) were surveyed in 1996 (Survey 1, age 45-50), 1998 and then every three years to 2016. Self-reported weight and height were collected for up to eight time points. Incident diabetes was assessed via validated self-report of physician-diagnosed diabetes. Growth mixture models were used to identify distinct BMI trajectories. A total of 1380 (11.2%) women newly developed T2DM over an average 16 years of follow-up. Seven distinct BMI trajectories were identified with differential risk of developing T2DM. Initial BMI was positively associated with T2DM risk. We also observed that risk of T2DM was positively associated with rapid weight increase, early age of obesity onset and greater obese-years.

CONCLUSION

Slowing down weight increases, delaying the onset of obesity, or reducing cumulative exposure to obesity may substantially lower the risk of developing T2DM.

Longitudinal Trends in Childhood Insulin Levels and Body Mass Index and Associations With Risks of Psychosis and Depression in Young Adults

IMPORTANCE

Cardiometabolic disorders often occur concomitantly with psychosis and depression, contribute to high mortality rates, and are detectable from the onset of the psychiatric disorders. However, it is unclear whether longitudinal trends in cardiometabolic traits from childhood are associated with risks for adult psychosis and depression.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether specific developmental trajectories of fasting insulin (FI) levels and body mass index (BMI) from early childhood were longitudinally associated with psychosis and depression in young adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A cohort study from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a prospective study including a population-representative British cohort of 14 975 individuals, was conducted using data from participants aged 1 to 24 years. Body mass index and FI level data were used for growth mixture modeling to delineate developmental trajectories, and associations with psychosis and depression were assessed. The study was conducted between July 15, 2019, and March 24, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Fasting insulin levels were measured at 9, 15, 18, and 24 years, and BMI was measured at 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 18, and 24 years. Data on sex, race/ethnicity, paternal social class, childhood emotional and behavioral problems, and cumulative scores of sleep problems, average calorie intake, physical activity, smoking, and alcohol and substance use in childhood and adolescence were examined as potential confounders.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Psychosis risk (definite psychotic experiences, psychotic disorder, at-risk mental state status, and negative symptom score) depression risk (measured using the computerized Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised) were assessed at 24 years.

RESULTS

From data available on 5790 participants (3132 [54.1%] female) for FI levels and data available on 10 463 participants (5336 [51.0%] female) for BMI, 3 distinct trajectories for FI levels and 5 distinct trajectories for BMI were noted, all of which were differentiated by mid-childhood. The persistently high FI level trajectory was associated with a psychosis at-risk mental state (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.01; 95% CI, 1.76-13.19) and psychotic disorder (aOR, 3.22; 95% CI, 1.29-8.02) but not depression (aOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.75-2.54). A puberty-onset major increase in BMI was associated with depression (aOR, 4.46; 95% CI, 2.38-9.87) but not psychosis (aOR, 1.98; 95% CI, 0.56-7.79).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The cardiometabolic comorbidity of psychosis and depression may have distinct, disorder-specific early-life origins. Disrupted insulin sensitivity could be a shared risk factor for comorbid cardiometabolic disorders and psychosis. A puberty-onset major increase in BMI could be a risk factor or risk indicator for adult depression. These markers may represent targets for prevention and treatment of cardiometabolic disorders in individuals with psychosis and depression.

Sex Differences in Rates of Change and Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors Among Adults Who Did and Did Not Go On to Develop Diabetes: Two Decades of Follow-up From the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the cumulative burden and linear rates of change of major metabolic risk factors (MRFs) among Iranian adults in whom type 2 diabetes did and did not develop.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 7,163 participants (3,069 men) aged 20-70 years at baseline with at least three examinations during 1999-2018. Individual growth curve modeling was used for data analysis. Statistical interactions for sex by diabetes status were adjusted for age, family history of diabetes, smoking status, and physical activity level.

RESULTS

Study sample included 743 (316 men) new case subjects with diabetes. In both men and women, compared with individuals in whom diabetes did not develop, individuals in whom diabetes developed had a higher burden of all MRFs and a greater rate of change in BMI, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure; however, the differences in burden and rate of change between those who did and did not develop diabetes were greater in women than in men. During the transition to diabetes, women experienced more adverse change in BMI, FPG, triglyceride, and HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) (diabetes-sex interaction P values <0.05) and faster rates of change in BMI, FPG, HDL-C, and total cholesterol (interaction P values <0.01) and SBP (interaction P = 0.055) than men.

CONCLUSIONS

The greater exposure of women to and burden of MRFs before onset of diabetes may have implications for implementing sex-specific strategies in order to prevent or delay diabetes complications.

Association of Apelin Levels in Overweight-obese Children with Pubertal Development, but Not with Insulin Sensitivity: 6.5 Years Follow up Evaluation

BACKGROUND

Obesity in youth is associated with increased risk of metabolic disorders. Adipose tissue hormones are involved in body-weight regulation. Among these, apelin is recognized as an insulin-sensitizer adipokine. Data on apelin levels in obese children and its relation to insulin-sensitivity are limited.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate apelin levels in relation to obesity and insulin sensitivity in a large cohort of overweight/obese children and adolescents. Furthermore, these youths were reevaluated after a median 6.5 years of follow-up, thus allowing assessing changes in apelin levels in relation to increasing age and weight changes.

METHODS

Clinical data in 909 children and adolescents were collected between 2007 and 2010. Two hundred and one were reexamined at a median 6.5 years of follow-up. All subjects at baseline and at follow-up underwent an OGTT. Apelin levels were measured on sera by ELISA method.

RESULTS

At baseline, lower apelin levels were associated with increasing age and puberty (Tanner ≥II 0.67 ± 0.96 ng/mL vs. Tanner I 0.89 ± 1.13 ng/mL, p < .002), but not with body-weight. At follow-up, apelin levels in the 201 subjects reexamined were significantly lower than at baseline (0.45 ± 0.77 ng/mL at follow-up, 0.68 ± 0.95 ng/mL baseline, p < .001), confirming the effects of age and puberty. Body-weight did not affect apelin levels. Multiple regression analysis confirmed that sex and puberty were associated with lower apelin levels, independently from age and insulin-sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Apelin levels decrease significantly with pubertal development, whilst body-weight in children and adolescents did not determine changes in apelin. Reduced levels of apelin in children and adolescents may therefore represent a necessary response to maintain the "physiological" insulin resistance of puberty. Abbreviations: ALT: Alanine aminotransferase; AST: Aspartate aminotransferase; G: glucose; BMI: Body mass index; DBP: Diastolic blood pressure; ELISA: enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay; HDL-C: High-density lipoprotein-cholesterol; HOMA-B: Homeostatic model assessment for beta-cell function; HOMA-IR: Homeostatic model assessment of insulin-resistance; INS: Insulin; ISI: insulin-sensitivity index; LDL-C: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; NW: normal weight; OB: obese; OGTT: oral glucose tolerance test; OW: overweight; SBP: Systolic blood pressure; TC: Total cholesterol; TGs: Triglycerides.

Weight tracking in childhood and adolescence and type 2 diabetes risk

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this work was to examine the associations of average weight and weight velocity in three growth periods from birth through adolescence with type 2 diabetes incidence.

METHODS

Child participants were selected from a 43 year longitudinal study of American Indians to represent three growth periods: pre-adolescence (birth to ~8 years); early adolescence (~8 to ~13 years); and late adolescence (~13 to ~18 years). Age-, sex- and height-standardised weight z score mean and weight z score velocity (change/year) were computed for each period. Participants were followed for up to 25 years from the end of each growth period until they developed diabetes. Associations of weight z score mean or weight z score velocity with diabetes incidence were determined with sex-, birth date- and maternal diabetes-adjusted Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

Among 2100 participants representing the pre-adolescence growth period, 1558 representing the early adolescence period and 1418 representing the late adolescence period, there were 290, 315 and 380 incident diabetes cases, respectively. During the first 10 years of follow-up, the diabetes incidence rate ratio (95% CI) was 1.72 (1.40, 2.11)/SD of log₁₀ weight z score mean in pre-adolescence, 2.09 (1.68, 2.60)/SD of log₁₀ weight z score mean in early adolescence and 1.85 (1.58, 2.17)/SD of log₁₀ weight z score mean in late adolescence. The diabetes incidence rate ratio (95% CI) was 1.79 (1.49, 2.17)/SD of log₁₀ weight z score velocity in pre-adolescence, 1.13 (0.91, 1.41)/SD of log₁₀ weight z score velocity in early adolescence and 1.29 (1.09, 1.51)/SD of log₁₀ weight z score velocity in late adolescence. There were strong correlations in the weight z score means and weak correlations in the weight z score velocities between successive periods.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Higher weight and accelerated weight gain in all growth periods associate with increased type 2 diabetes risk. Importantly, higher weight and greater weight velocity during pre-adolescence jointly associate with the highest type 2 diabetes risk. Graphical abstract.

Distinct uric acid trajectories are associated with incident diabetes in an overweight Chinese population

AIM

To explore uric acid (UA) trajectories in different body mass index (BMI) populations and to determine their associations with incident diabetes.

METHODS

A total of 4566 adults without diabetes in 2011 were enrolled. All participants underwent a medical examination every year until 2016, and were classified into three subgroups based on BMI: non-obese (BMI<24kg/m²); overweight (BMI ≥24kg/m² but<28kg/m²); and obese (BMI ≥28kg/m²). Distinct UA trajectories were identified through group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM). Cox proportional-hazards models were applied to evaluate the associations between UA trajectories and risk of incident diabetes.

RESULTS

UA trajectories were identified in the three BMI subgroups: 'low' (42.4% in non-obese, 22.1% in overweight, 22.0% in obese); 'moderate' (32.5%, 41.1%, 34.8%); 'moderate-high' (18.6%, 29.5%, 30.8%); and 'high' (6.5%, 7.3%, 12.4%). After a 5-year follow-up, 170 (3.7%) participants had developed diabetes. The prevalence of new-onset diabetes increased progressively with the higher UA trajectories in the BMI groups (P values<0.05). Whereas compared with the low trajectory, a significant association between a high UA trajectory and incidence of diabetes was observed only in the overweight population [hazard ratio (HR): 6.95, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.90-25.45], with no significant associations found in either the non-obese (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.13-3.52) or obese (HR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.06-2.64) populations, in the fully adjusted model.

CONCLUSION

Higher UA trajectories are significantly associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes, thereby suggesting that monitoring UA trajectories over time may assist in the identification of prediabetes and diabetes, particularly in the overweight population.

Trajectories of early to mid-life adulthood BMI and incident diabetes: the China Health and Nutrition Survey

INTRODUCTION

This longitudinal study aims to characterize distinct body mass index (BMI) trajectories during early to mid-life adulthood and to explore the association between BMI change from young adulthood to midlife and incident diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 7289 adults who had repeatedly measured BMI 3-9 times during 1989-2011 and information on incident diabetes. Latent class growth mixed model (LCGMM) was used to identify different BMI trajectories. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the association between the trajectory group membership and incident hyperglycemia, adjusting for covariates. The hyperglycemia group included individuals with prediabetes or diabetes. The model-estimated BMI levels and slopes were calculated at each age point in 1-year intervals according to the model parameters and their first derivatives, respectively. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine the association of model-estimated levels and slopes of BMI at each age point with incident hyperglycemia. The area under the curve (AUC) was computed from longitudinal growth curve models during the follow-up for each individual. Prior to the logistic regression analyses, quartiles of total, baseline, and incremental AUC values were calculated.

RESULTS

Three distinct trajectories were characterized by LCGMM, comprising of low-increasing group (n=5136), medium-increasing group (n=1914), and high-increasing group (n=239). Compared with the low-increasing group, adjusted HRs and 95% CIs were 1.21 (0.99 to 1.48) and 1.56 (1.06 to 2.30) for the medium-increasing and the high-increasing group, respectively. The adjusted standardized ORs of model-estimated BMI levels increased among 20-50 years, ranging from 0.98 (0.87 to 1.10) to 1.19 (1.08 to 1.32). The standardized ORs of level-adjusted linear slopes increased gradually from 1.30 (1.16 to 1.45) to 1.42 (1.21 to 1.67) during 20-29 years, then decreased from 1.41 (1.20 to 1.66) to 1.20 (1.08 to 1.33) during 30-43 years, and finally increased to 1.20 (1.04 to 1.38) until 50 years. The fourth quartile of incremental AUC (OR=1.31, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.66) was significant compared with the first quartile, after adjustment for covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that the BMI trajectories during early adulthood were significantly associated with later-life diabetes. Young adulthood is a crucial period for the development of diabetes, which has implications for early prevention.

Distinct developmental trajectories of body mass index and diabetes risk: A 5-year longitudinal study of Chinese adults

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

This longitudinal study aimed to explore whether distinct developmental trajectories of body mass index (BMI) would be predictive of diabetes risk in general Chinese adults.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 4,519 participants aged >18 years who were free of diabetes in 2011 (baseline of the current analysis) were enrolled in this study. All participants completed a medical examination every year during 2011-2016, and BMI levels were measured two to six (average 5.6) times. Group-based trajectory modeling was applied to identify BMI trajectories over time. New-onset diabetes was confirmed in 2016.

RESULTS

During 2011-2016, four distinct BMI trajectories were identified according to BMI range and changing pattern over time: "low" (19.6%), "moderate" (33.4%), "moderate-high" (33.4%) and "high" (13.6%). A total of 168 (3.7%) new-onset diabetes cases were confirmed in 2016. Compared with the "low" BMI trajectory, participants in the "high" BMI trajectory were at significantly higher risk for new-onset diabetes (adjusted relative risk 3.24, 95% confidence interval 1.27-8.24). Notably, BMI trajectories based on the first four or three annual BMI tests yielded similar results. By contrast, no significant correlation was found between categories of baseline BMI and new-onset diabetes in 2016 after multivariate adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

The present results show that distinct BMI trajectories, even identified using just four or three annual BMI tests, are significantly associated with new-onset diabetes. Monitoring BMI trajectories over time might provide an important approach to identify subpopulations at higher risk for developing diabetes.

Age of obesity onset, cumulative obesity exposure over early adulthood and risk of type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Obesity is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes, yet little is known about how timing and cumulative exposure of obesity are related to disease risk. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between BMI trajectories, age of onset of obesity and obese-years (a product of degree and duration of obesity) over early adulthood and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Women aged 18-23 years at baseline (n = 11,192) enrolled in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) in 1996 were followed up about every 3 years via surveys for up to 19 years. Self-reported weights were collected up to seven times. Incident type 2 diabetes was self-reported. A growth mixture model was used to identify distinct BMI trajectories over the early adult life course. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations between trajectories and risk of diabetes.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-two (1.5%) women were newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes during a mean of 16 years of follow-up. Six distinct BMI trajectories were identified, varying by different initial BMI and different slopes of increase. Initial BMI was positively associated with risk of diabetes. We also observed that age at onset of obesity was negatively associated with risk of diabetes (HR 0.87 [95% CI 0.79, 0.96] per 1 year increment), and number of obese-years was positively associated with diabetes (p for trend <0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our data revealed the importance of timing of obesity, and cumulative exposure to obesity in the development of type 2 diabetes in young women, suggesting that preventing or delaying the onset of obesity and reducing cumulative exposure to obesity may substantially lower the risk of developing diabetes.

The role of childhood BMI in predicting early adulthood dysglycemia: Tehran lipid and glucose study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Increased adiposity is associated with insulin resistance and glycemic disturbances. We aimed to determine whether childhood overweight or obesity are independent factors in predicting adulthood dysglycemia (prediabetes or type 2 diabetes).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this population-based cohort study, 1290 normoglycemic subjects aged 3-11 years were followed for incidence of dysglycemia. Cox-proportional hazard models were employed to evaluate the association of obesity and overweight with incidence of dysglycemia by adjustments for age, sex, parental risk factors and baseline individual risk factors. The participants, with a mean age of 7.7 ± 2.5 years, were followed for a median of 14.9 years. During follow up, 158 subjects developed dysglycemia (18 type 2 diabetes, 140 prediabetes), contributing to a total cumulative incidence of 24.7%. The unadjusted HR for developing adult dysglycemia were 1.6 (95% CI; 1.0-2.4) and 1.7 (95% CI; 1.0-3.0) in overweight and obese children, respectively. Further adjustments for age, sex, parental risk factors and baseline individual risk factors changed the results in both overweight and obese children.

CONCLUSION

These findings show that overweight or obesity in childhood have no independent role for developing adulthood dysglycemia.

Life-Course Cumulative Burden of Body Mass Index and Blood Pressure on Progression of Left Ventricular Mass and Geometry in Midlife: The Bogalusa Heart Study

RATIONALE

Data are limited regarding the influence of life-course cumulative burden of increased body mass index (BMI) and elevated blood pressure (BP) on the progression of left ventricular (LV) geometric remodeling in midlife.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the dynamic changes in LV mass and LV geometry over 6.4 years during midlife and to examine whether the adverse progression of LV geometric remodeling is influenced by the cumulative burden of BMI and BP from childhood to adulthood.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study consisted of 877 adults (604 whites and 273 blacks; 355 males; mean age=41.4 years at follow-up) who had 5 to 15 examinations of BMI and BP from childhood and 2 examinations of LV dimensions at baseline and follow-up 6.4 years apart during adulthood. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated as a measure of long-term burden (total AUC) and trends (incremental AUC) of BMI and systolic BP (SBP). After adjusting for age, race, sex, smoking, alcohol drinking, and baseline LV mass index, the annual increase rate of LV mass index was associated with all BMI measures (β=0.16-0.36, P<0.05 for all), adult SBP (β=0.07, P=0.04), and total AUC of SBP (β=0.09, P=0.01) but not with childhood and incremental AUC values of SBP. All BMI and SBP measures (except childhood SBP) were significantly associated with increased risk of incident LV hypertrophy, with odds ratios of BMI (odds ratio=1.85-2.74, P<0.05 for all) being significantly greater than those of SBP (odds ratio=1.09-1.34, P<0.05 for all except childhood SBP). In addition, all BMI measures were significantly and positively associated with incident eccentric and concentric LV hypertrophy.

CONCLUSIONS

Life-course cumulative burden of BMI and BP is associated with the development of LV hypertrophy in midlife, with BMI showing stronger associations than BP. Visual Overview: An online visual overview is available for this article.

Long-Term Burden of Increased Body Mass Index from Childhood on Adult Dyslipidemia: The i3C Consortium Study

Background: Data are limited regarding the association of cumulative burden and trajectory of body mass index (BMI) from early life with adult lipid disorders. Methods: The study cohort consisted of 5195 adults who had BMI repeatedly measured 4 to 21 times from childhood and had blood lipid measurements of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) and information on lipid-lowering medications in the last adult survey. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated as a measure of long-term burden (total AUC) and trends (incremental AUC) of BMI. Results: Participants with dyslipidemia, high LDL-C, low HDL-C and high TG had consistently and significantly higher BMI levels from childhood to adulthood compared to those with normal lipid levels. After adjusting for age, race, sex, and cohort, increased risk of adult dyslipidemia was significantly associated with higher values of childhood BMI, adulthood BMI, total AUC and incremental AUC, with odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.22 (1.15–1.29), 1.85 (1.74–1.97), 1.61 (1.52–1.71), and 1.59 (1.50–1.69), respectively, and p < 0.001 for all. The association patterns were similar in most race–sex subgroups. Conclusions: Adults with dyslipidemia versus normal lipid levels have consistently higher levels and distinct life-course trajectories of BMI, suggesting that the impact of excessive body weight on dyslipidemia originates in early life.

Sex Differences in Cardiovascular Risk Profile From Childhood to Midlife Between Individuals Who Did and Did Not Develop Diabetes at Follow-up: The Bogalusa Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

Childhood and young adulthood may represent time periods in which cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and their cumulative exposure lay the foundation for future risk of chronic diseases. We examined the longitudinal burden of CVRFs since childhood in men and women in whom diabetes did and did not develop at follow-up.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 1,530 participants (mean [SD] follow-up time 33.1 [8.2] years), who participated in the Bogalusa Heart Study and had been examined at least four times starting in childhood (mean age [SD] at first examination 9.4 [3.1] years). The area under the growth curve was used as a measure of cumulative exposure to CVRFs since childhood.

RESULTS

In childhood, boys and girls in whom diabetes did and did not develop at follow-up had similar CVRFs. Yet, over time, women during the transition from normoglycemia to diabetes experienced greater adverse changes in total cholesterol (TC), LDL cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (noted as early as 23.5 years old and persisting across adulthood up to the age of the diagnosis of diabetes); a higher burden of exposure to BMI, TC, LDL cholesterol, and FPG from childhood to midlife; and a greater change in rates of BMI, TC, LDL cholesterol, and FPG since childhood than men during the same transition (interaction P values <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The greater exposure of women to and burden of CVRFs associated with diagnosis of diabetes may help to explain the stronger impact of diabetes as a major risk factor for cardiovascular events in women compared with men.