Chapter 7. Critical care triage. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster

Critical care and pandemic preparedness and response

Critical care was established partially in response to a polio epidemic in the 1950s. In the intervening 70 yr, several epidemics and pandemics have placed critical care and allied services under extreme pressure. Pandemics cause wholesale changes to accepted standards of practice, require reallocation and retargeting of resources and goals of care. In addition to clinical acumen, mounting an effective critical care response to a pandemic requires local, national, and international coordination in a diverse array of fields from research collaboration and governance to organisation of critical care networks and applied biomedical ethics in the eventuality of triage situations. This review provides an introduction to an array of topics that pertain to different states of pandemic acuity: interpandemic preparedness, alert, surge activity, recovery and relapse through the literature and experience of recent pandemics including COVID-19, H1N1, Ebola, and SARS.

Improved performance of an intensive care unit after changing the admission triage model

The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of implementing a prioritization triage model for admission to an intensive care unit on the outcome of critically ill patients. Retrospective longitudinal study of adult patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) carried out from January 2013 to December 2017. The primary outcome considered was vital status at hospital discharge. Patients were divided into period 1 (chronological triage) during the years 2013 and 2014 and period 2 (prioritization triage) during the years 2015-2017. A total of 1227 patients in period 1 and 2056 in period 2 were analyzed. Patients admitted in period 2 were older (59.8 years) compared to period 1 (57.3 years; p < 0.001) with less chronic diseases (13.6% vs. 19.2%; p = 0.001), and higher median APACHE II score (21.0 vs. 18.0; p < 0.001)) and TISS 28 score (28.0 vs. 27.0; p < 0.001). In period 2, patients tended to stay in the ICU for a shorter time (8.5 ± 11.8 days) compared to period 1 (9.6 ± 16.0 days; p = 0.060) and had lower mortality at ICU (32.8% vs. 36.9%; p = 0.016) and hospital discharge (44.2% vs. 47.8%; p = 0.041). The change in the triage model from a chronological model to a prioritization model resulted in improvement in the performance of the ICU and reduction in the hospital mortality rate.

Predictive Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Algorithms on Electronic Health Record Data: Advantages and Challenges

The rapid adoption of electronic health record (EHR) systems in US hospitals from 2008 to 2014 produced novel data elements for analysis. Concurrent innovations in computing architecture and machine learning (ML) algorithms have made rapid consumption of health data feasible and a powerful engine for clinical innovation. In critical care research, the net convergence of these trends has resulted in an exponential increase in outcome prediction research. In the following article, we explore the history of outcome prediction in the intensive care unit (ICU), the growing use of EHR data, and the rise of artificial intelligence and ML (AI) in critical care.

The underrepresentation of palliative care in global guidelines for responding to infectious disease outbreaks: a systematic narrative review

BACKGROUND

The importance of palliative care provision has been highlighted in previous humanitarian emergencies. This review aimed to examine the breadth and depth of palliative care inclusion within global guidelines for responding to infectious disease outbreaks.

METHODS

The review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines. Electronic searches of MEDLINE, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health, PsychInfo and grey literature were performed. Inclusion criteria were guidelines (recommendations for clinical practice or public health policy) for responding to infectious disease outbreaks in the general adult population. Results were limited to the English language, between 1 January 2010 and 17 August 2020. Analysis of the included articles involved assessing the breadth (number of palliative care domains covered) and depth (detail with which the domains were addressed) of palliative care inclusion.

RESULTS

A total of 584 articles were retrieved and 43 met the inclusion criteria. Two additional articles were identified through handsearching. There was limited inclusion of palliative care in the guidelines examined.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an opportunity for the development of guidelines that include information on palliative care implementation in the context of infectious disease outbreaks in order to reduce the suffering of key vulnerable populations worldwide.

Senior-COVID-Rea Cohort Study: A Geriatric Prediction Model of 30-day Mortality in Patients Aged over 60 Years in ICU for Severe COVID-19

The SARS-COV2 pandemic induces tensions on health systems and ethical dilemmas. Practitioners need help tools to define patients not candidate for ICU admission. A multicentre observational study was performed to evaluate the impact of age and geriatric parameters on 30-day mortality in patients aged ≥60 years of age. Patients or next of kin were asked to answer a phone questionnaire assessing geriatric covariates 1 month before ICU admission. Among 290 screened patients, 231 were included between March 7 and May 7, 2020. In univariate, factors associated with lower 30-day survival were: age (per 10 years increase; OR 3.43, [95%CI: 2.13-5.53]), ≥3 CIRS-G grade ≥2 comorbidities (OR 2.49 [95%CI: 1.36-4.56]), impaired ADL, (OR 4.86 [95%CI: 2.44-9.72]), impaired IADL8 (OR 6.33 [95%CI: 3.31-12.10], p<0.001), frailty according to the Fried score (OR 4.33 [95%CI: 2.03-9.24]) or the CFS ≥5 (OR 3.79 [95%CI: 1.76-8.15]), 6-month fall history (OR 3.46 [95%CI: 1.58-7.63]). The final multivariate model included age (per 10 years increase; 2.94 [95%CI:1.78-5.04], p<0.001) and impaired IADL8 (OR 5.69 [95%CI: 2.90-11.47], p<0.001)). Considered as continuous variables, the model led to an AUC of 0.78 [95% CI: 0.72, 0.85]. Age and IADL8 provide independent prognostic factors for 30-day mortality in the considered population. Considering a risk of death exceeding 80% (82.6% [95%CI: 61.2% - 95.0%]), patients aged over 80 years with at least 1 IADL impairment appear as poor candidates for ICU admission.

Prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia can be early predicted combining Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB score and baseline oxygen saturation

In potentially severe diseases in general and COVID-19 in particular, it is vital to early identify those patients who are going to progress to severe disease. A recent living systematic review dedicated to predictive models in COVID-19, critically appraises 145 models, 8 of them focused on prediction of severe disease and 23 on mortality. Unfortunately, in all 145 models, they found a risk of bias significant enough to finally "not recommend any for clinical use". Authors suggest concentrating on avoiding biases in sampling and prioritising the study of already identified predictive factors, rather than the identification of new ones that are often dependent on the database. Our objective is to develop a model to predict which patients with COVID-19 pneumonia are at high risk of developing severe illness or dying, using basic and validated clinical tools. We studied a prospective cohort of consecutive patients admitted in a teaching hospital during the "first wave" of the COVID-19 pandemic. Follow-up to discharge from hospital. Multiple logistic regression selecting variables according to clinical and statistical criteria. 404 consecutive patients were evaluated, 392 (97%) completed follow-up. Mean age was 61 years; 59% were men. The median burden of comorbidity was 2 points in the Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB was abnormal in 18% of patients and basal oxygen saturation on admission lower than 90% in 18%. A model composed of Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB score and basal oxygen saturation can predict unfavorable evolution or death with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.89), and 0.90 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.94), respectively. Prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia can be predicted without laboratory tests using two classic clinical tools and a pocket pulse oximeter.

Emergency Department Length of Stay and Mortality in Critically Injured Patients

OBJECTIVE

Multicenter data from 2 decades ago demonstrated that critically ill and injured patients spending more than 6 hours in the emergency department (ED) before transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU) had higher mortality rates. A contemporary analysis of ED length of stay in critically injured patients at American College of Surgeons' Trauma Quality Improvement Program (ACS-TQIP) centers was performed to test whether prolonged ED length of stay is still associated with mortality.

METHODS

This was an observational cohort study of critically injured patients admitted directly to ICU from the ED in ACS-TQIP centers from 2010-2015. Spending more than 6 hours in the ED was defined as prolonged ED length of stay. Patients with prolonged ED length of stay were matched to those with non-prolonged ED length of stay and mortality was compared.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of 113,097 patients were directly admitted from the ED to the ICU following injury. The median ED length of stay was 167 minutes. Prolonged ED length of stay occurred in 15,279 (13.5%) of patients. Women accounted for 29.4% of patients with prolonged ED length of stay but only 25.8% of patients with non-prolonged ED length of stay, P < 0.0001. Mortality rates were similar after matching-4.5% among patients with prolonged ED length of stay versus 4.2% among matched controls. Multivariable logistic regression of the matched cohorts demonstrated prolonged ED length of stay was not associated with mortality. However, women had higher adjusted mortality compared to men Odds Ratio = 1.41, 95% Confidence Interval 1.28 -1.61, P < 0.0001.

CONCLUSION

Prolonged ED length of stay is no longer associated with mortality among critically injured patients. Women are more likely to have prolonged ED length of stay and mortality.

Readiness of Medical Teams Caring for COVID-19 in the Intensive Care Units: A National Web-Based Survey in Indonesia

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID)-19 pandemic is a challenge for the intensive care unit (ICU) medical team. It requires management of space, stuff (medical equipment including drugs), staff, and system readiness (4S) to deal with the surge in the number of patients. AIM: This survey aims to describe the current readiness efforts among ICU medical team at the COVID-19 referral hospitals in Indonesia; space, stuff readiness, staff, and systems readiness. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional national web-based survey of ICUs across referral hospitals during pandemic COVID-19 in Indonesia from June to October 2020. The medical teams survey included 53 questions in multiple parts addressing five dimensions. A linear regression model was applied to determine the factors related with readiness. RESULTS: A total of 459 participants (83.6%) agreed to join in this study. The participants’ average age was 40.43 years (SD = 5.78). About 62.53% were male, 51.20% had bachelor degree, and 55.77% lived outside of Java Island. The mean of total score of medical team readiness was 2.76 (SD = 0.320) and the highest (maximum score) mean score of medical team readiness domain was stuff (2.81, SD = 7.72). Education, working experience, training, perception of risk of contracting COVID-19, and residence had a substantial effect on the readiness, with R2 values of 0.378, p < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an initial view of current preparedness efforts among a group of ICUs in Indonesia’s leading hospital during the first wave of pandemic. Interventions must be developed and implemented quickly to increase the medical team’s readiness to care for a future pandemic.

Physicians' Acceptance of Triage Guidelines in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Study

Aims: One of the major ethical challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic comes in the form of fair triage decisions for critically ill patients in situations where life-saving resources are limited. In Spring 2020, the Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences (SAMS) issued specific guidelines on triage for intensive-care treatment in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. While evidence has shown that the capacities of intensive care medicine throughout Switzerland were sufficient to take care of all critically ill patients during the first wave of the outbreak, no evidence is available regarding the acceptance of these guidelines by ICU staff. The aim of this qualitative study was to explore the acceptance and perceived implementation of the SAMS guidelines among a sample of senior physicians involved in the care of Covid-19 patients in the Canton of Ticino. Specific objectives included capturing and describing physicians' attitudes toward the guidelines, any challenges experienced in their application, and any perceived factors that facilitated or would facilitate their application.

Methods: We conducted face-to-face and telephone interviews with a purposive sample of nine senior physicians employed as either head of unity, deputy-head of unit, or medical director in either one of the two Covid-19 hospitals in the Canton of Ticino during the peak of the outbreak. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and thematically analyzed using an inductive approach.

Results: We found that participants held different views regarding the nature of the guidelines, saw decisions on admission as a matter of collective responsibility, argued that decisions should be based on a medical futility principle rather than an age criterion, and found that difficulties to address end-of-life issues led to a comeback of paternalism.

Conclusions: Results highlight the importance of clarifying the nature of the guidelines, establishing authority, and responsibility during triaging decisions, recognizing and addressing sources of interference with patients' autonomy, and the need of a cultural shift in timely and efficiently addressing end-of-life issues.

Treating patients across European Union borders: An international survey in light of the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

In light of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, how resources are managed and the critically ill are allocated must be reviewed. Although ethical recommendations have been published, strategies for dealing with overcapacity of critical care resources have so far not been addressed.

OBJECTIVES

Assess expert opinion for allocation preferences regarding the growing imbalance between supply and demand for medical resources.

DESIGN

A 10-item questionnaire was developed and sent to the most prominent members of the European Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care (ESAIC).

SETTING

Survey via a web-based platform.

PATIENTS

Respondents were members of the National Anaesthesiologists Societies Committee and Council Members of the ESAIC; 74 of 80 (92.5%), responded to the survey.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Responses were analysed thematically. The majority of respondents (83.8%), indicated that resources for COVID-19 were available at the time of the survey. Of the representatives of the ESAIC governing bodies, 58.9% favoured an allocation of excess critical care capacity: 69% wished to make them available to supraregional patients, whereas 30.9% preferred to keep the resources available for the local population. Regarding the type of distribution of resources, 35.3% preferred to make critical care available, 32.4% favoured the allocation of medical equipment and 32.4% wished to support both options. The majority (59.5%) supported the implementation of a central European institution to manage such resource allocation.

CONCLUSION

Experts in critical care support the allocation of resources from centres with overcapacity. The results indicate the need for centrally administered allocation mechanisms that are not based on ethically disputable triage systems. It seems, therefore, that there is wide acceptance and solidarity among the European anaesthesiological community that local medical and human pressure should be relieved during a pandemic by implementing national and international re-allocation strategies among healthcare providers and healthcare systems.

Allocation of intensive care resources during an infectious disease outbreak: a rapid review to inform practice

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed sustained demand on health systems globally, and the capacity to provide critical care has been overwhelmed in some jurisdictions. It is unknown which triage criteria for allocation of resources perform best to inform health system decision-making. We sought to summarize and describe existing triage tools and ethical frameworks to aid healthcare decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks.

METHODS

We conducted a rapid review of triage criteria and ethical frameworks for the allocation of critical care resources during epidemics and pandemics. We searched Medline, EMBASE, and SCOPUS from inception to November 3, 2020. Full-text screening and data abstraction were conducted independently and in duplicate by three reviewers. Articles were included if they were primary research, an adult critical care setting, and the framework described was related to an infectious disease outbreak. We summarized each triage tool and ethical guidelines or framework including their elements and operating characteristics using descriptive statistics. We assessed the quality of each article with applicable checklists tailored to each study design.

RESULTS

From 11,539 unique citations, 697 full-text articles were reviewed and 83 articles were included. Fifty-nine described critical care triage protocols and 25 described ethical frameworks. Of these, four articles described both a protocol and ethical framework. Sixty articles described 52 unique triage criteria (29 algorithm-based, 23 point-based). Few algorithmic- or point-based triage protocols were good predictors of mortality with AUCs ranging from 0.51 (PMEWS) to 0.85 (admitting SOFA > 11). Most published triage protocols included the substantive values of duty to provide care, equity, stewardship and trust, and the procedural value of reason.

CONCLUSIONS

This review summarizes available triage protocols and ethical guidelines to provide decision-makers with data to help select and tailor triage tools. Given the uncertainty about how the COVID-19 pandemic will progress and any future pandemics, jurisdictions should prepare by selecting and adapting a triage tool that works best for their circumstances.

Triage protocol for allocation of critical health resources during Covid-19 pandemic and public health emergencies. A narrative review

Background and aim of the work.

Triage during the Covid-19 pandemic can impose difficult allocation decisions when demand for mechanical ventilation or intensive care beds greatly exceeds available resources. Triage criteria should be objective, ethical, transparent, applied equitably and publically disclosed. The aim of this review is to describe the triage tools and process for critical care resources in a pandemic health emergency.

Methods.

A narrative review was conducted of the literature on five electronic databases, namely PubMed, CINHAL, Web of Science, Cochrane and Embase, searching for studies published from January 2006 to July 2020.

Results.

The results describe different triage tools. A gold standard of triage does not exist for the adult or paediatric population. Using probability of short-term survival as the sole allocation principle is problematic. In general, each triage protocol should be applied with a specific ethical justification, including transparency, duty to care, duty to steward resources, duty to plan, and distributive justice.

Conclusions.

Clinical triage decisions based on clinical judgment alone are prone to inconsistent application by triage officers in a pandemic. An ethical framework can inform decision-making and improve accountability. It remains difficult to connect clinical criteria and ethical criteria, because of the models on offer for health services. (www.actabiomedica.it)

Practices in Triage and Transfer of Critically Ill Patients: A Qualitative Systematic Review of Selection Criteria

OBJECTIVES

To identify and appraise articles describing criteria used to prioritize or withhold a critical care admission.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, Medline, EBM Reviews, and CINAHL Complete databases. Gray literature searches and a manual review of references were also performed. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed.

STUDY SELECTION

We sought all articles and abstracts of original research as well as local, provincial, or national policies on the topic of ICU resource allocation. We excluded studies whose population of interest was neonatal, pediatric, trauma, or noncritically ill. Screening of 6,633 citations was conducted.

DATA EXTRACTION

Triage and/or transport criteria were extracted, based on type of article, methodology, publication year, and country. An appraisal scale was developed to assess the quality of identified articles. We also developed a robustness score to further appraise the robustness of the evidence supporting each criterion. Finally, all criteria were extracted, evaluated, and grouped by theme.

DATA SYNTHESIS

One-hundred twenty-nine articles were included. These were mainly original research (34%), guidelines (26%), and reviews (21%). Among them, we identified 200 unique triage and transport criteria. Most articles highlighted an exclusion (71%) rather than a prioritization mechanism (17%). Very few articles pertained to transport of critically ill patients (4%). Criteria were classified in one of four emerging themes: patient, condition, physician, and context. The majority of criteria used were nonspecific. No study prospectively evaluated the implementation of its cited criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review identified 200 criteria classified within four themes that may be included when devising triage programs including the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. We identified significant knowledge gaps where research would assist in improving existing triage criteria and guidelines, aiming to decrease arbitrary decisions and variability.

COVID-19: instruments for the allocation of mechanical ventilators-a narrative review

After the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic, the elaboration of comprehensive and preventive public policies became important in order to stop the spread of the disease. However, insufficient or ineffective measures may have placed health professionals and services in the position of having to allocate mechanical ventilators. This study aimed to identify instruments, analyze their structures, and present the main criteria used in the screening protocols, in order to help the development of guidelines and policies for the allocation of mechanical ventilators in the COVID-19 pandemic. The instruments have a low level of scientific evidence, and, in general, are structured by various clinical, non-clinical, and tiebreaker criteria that contain ethical aspects. Few instruments included public participation in their construction or validation. We believe that the elaboration of these guidelines cannot be restricted to specialists as this question involves ethical considerations which make the participation of the population necessary. Finally, we propose seventeen elements that can support the construction of screening protocols in the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Contingency plan for the intensive care services for the COVID-19 pandemic]

In January 2020, the Chinese authorities identified a new virus of the Coronaviridae family as the cause of several cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology. The outbreak was initially confined to Wuhan City, but then spread outside Chinese borders. On 31 January 2020, the first case was declared in Spain. On 11 March 2020, The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. On 16 March 2020, there were 139 countries affected. In this situation, the Scientific Societies SEMICYUC and SEEIUC have decided to draw up this Contingency Plan to guide the response of the Intensive Care Services. The objectives of this plan are to estimate the magnitude of the problem and identify the necessary human and material resources. This is to provide the Spanish Intensive Medicine Services with a tool to programme optimal response strategies.

Contingency plan for the intensive care services for the COVID-19 pandemic

In January 2020, the Chinese authorities identified a new virus of the Coronaviridae family as the cause of several cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology. The outbreak was initially confined to Wuhan City, but then spread outside Chinese borders. On 31 January 2020, the first case was declared in Spain. On 11 March 2020, The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. On 16 March 2020, there were 139 countries affected. In this situation, the Scientific Societies SEMICYUC and SEEIUC, have decided to draw up this Contingency Plan to guide the response of the Intensive Care Services. The objectives of this plan are to estimate the magnitude of the problem and identify the necessary human and material resources. This is to provide the Spanish Intensive Medicine Services with a tool to programme optimal response strategies.

Adult ICU Triage During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: Who Will Live and Who Will Die? Recommendations to Improve Survival

OBJECTIVES

Coronavirus disease 2019 patients are currently overwhelming the world's healthcare systems. This article provides practical guidance to front-line physicians forced to make critical rationing decisions.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Medline search for scientific literature, reviews, and guidance documents related to epidemic ICU triage including from professional bodies.

STUDY SELECTION

Clinical studies, reviews, and guidelines were selected and reviewed by all authors and discussed by internet conference and email.

DATA EXTRACTION

References and data were based on relevance and author consensus.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We review key challenges of resource-driven triage and data from affected ICUs. We recommend that once available resources are maximally extended, triage is justified utilizing a strategy that provides the greatest good for the greatest number of patients. A triage algorithm based on clinical estimations of the incremental survival benefit (saving the most life-years) provided by ICU care is proposed. "First come, first served" is used to choose between individuals with equal priorities and benefits. The algorithm provides practical guidance, is easy to follow, rapidly implementable and flexible. It has four prioritization categories: performance score, ASA score, number of organ failures, and predicted survival. Individual units can readily adapt the algorithm to meet local requirements for the evolving pandemic. Although the algorithm improves consistency and provides practical and psychologic support to those performing triage, the final decision remains a clinical one. Depending on country and operational circumstances, triage decisions may be made by a triage team or individual doctors. However, an experienced critical care specialist physician should be ultimately responsible for the triage decision. Cautious discharge criteria are proposed acknowledging the difficulties to facilitate the admission of queuing patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Individual institutions may use this guidance to develop prospective protocols that assist the implementation of triage decisions to ensure fairness, enhance consistency, and decrease provider moral distress.

Allocation of Scarce Resources in a Pandemic: A Systematic Review of US State Crisis Standards of Care Documents

The aim of this systematic review was to locate and analyze United States state crisis standards of care (CSC) documents to determine their prevalence and quality. Following PRISMA guidelines, Google search for "allocation of scarce resources" and "crisis standards of care (CSC)" for each state. We analyzed the plans based on the 2009 Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, which provided guidance for establishing CSC for use in disaster situations, as well as the 2014 CHEST consensus statement's 11 core topic areas. The search yielded 42 state documents, and we excluded 11 that were not CSC plans. Of the 31 included plans, 13 plans were written for an "all hazards" approach, while 18 were pandemic influenza specific. Eighteen had strong ethical grounding. Twenty-one plans had integrated and ongoing community and provider engagement, education, and communication. Twenty-two had assurances regarding legal authority and environment. Sixteen plans had clear indicators, triggers, and lines of responsibility. Finally, 28 had evidence-based clinical processes and operations. Five plans contained all 5 IOM elements: Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, and Vermont. Colorado and Minnesota have all hazards documents and processes for both adult and pediatric populations and could be considered exemplars for other states.

Classic cases revisited: Of hurricanes, cyanide and moral courage

All decisions made by doctors have a moral dimension. When a moral judgement demands a different course of action to one that represents the usual practice, many doctors do struggle. The inability to embrace such decisions can represent moral negligence, as often the consequence is greater suffering for the individual in question or loss of utility for the population. On the other hand, it takes courage to make such decisions as the society fails to accept them, even though decisions made are rational and morally valid. Clinical practice that does not conform to moral judgements can result in moral distress, burn out and job-leave. Reflective practice evaluating moral dimensions of clinical decision making is an important aspect of nurturing humanity, empathy and professionalism in the therapeutic endeavour.

Contingency Plan for the Intensive Care Services for the COVID-19 pandemic

In January 2020, the Chinese authorities identified a new virus of the Coronaviridae family as the cause of several cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology. The outbreak was initially confined to Wuhan City, but then spread outside Chinese borders. On 31 January 2020, the first case was declared in Spain. On 11 March 2020, The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. On 16 March 2020, there were 139 countries affected. In this situation, the Scientific Societies SEMICYUC and SEEIUC, have decided to draw up this Contingency Plan to guide the response of the intensive care services. The objectives of this plan are to estimate the magnitude of the problem and identify the necessary human and material resources. This is to provide the Spanish Intensive Medicine Services with a tool to programme optimal response strategies.

Contingency Plan for the Intensive Care Services for the COVID-19 pandemic

In January 2020, the Chinese authorities identified a new virus of the Coronaviridae family as the cause of several cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology. The outbreak was initially confined to Wuhan City, but then spread outside Chinese borders. On 31 January 2020, the first case was declared in Spain. On 11 March 2020, The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. On 16 March 2020, there were 139 countries affected. In this situation, the Scientific Societies SEMICYUC and SEEIUC, have decided to draw up this Contingency Plan to guide the response of the Intensive Care Services. The objectives of this plan are to estimate the magnitude of the problem and identify the necessary human and material resources. This is to provide the Spanish Intensive Medicine Services with a tool to programme optimal response strategies.

Triage

This review provides an overview of triaging critically ill or injured patients during mass casualty incidents due to events such as disasters, pandemics, or terrorist incidents. Questions clinicians commonly have, including "what is triage?," "when to triage?," "what are the types of disaster triage?," "how to triage?," "what are the ethics of triage?," "how to govern triage?," and "what research is required on triage?," are addressed.

The Critical Care Society of Southern Africa Consensus Guideline on ICU Triage and Rationing (ConICTri)

Background

In South Africa (SA), administrators and intensive care practitioners are faced with the challenge of resource scarcity as well as an increasing demand for intensive care unit (ICU) services. ICU services are expensive, and practitioners in low- to middle-income countries experience the consequences of limited resources daily. Critically limited resources necessitate that rationing and triage (prioritisation) decisions are routinely necessary in SA, particularly in the publicly funded health sector.

Purpose

The purpose of this guideline is to utilise the relevant recommendations of the associated consensus meeting document and other internationally accepted principles to develop a guideline to inform frontline triage policy and ensure the best utilisation of adult intensive care in SA, while maintaining the fair distribution of available resources.

Recommendations

An overall conceptual framework for the triage process was developed. The components of the framework were developed on the basis that patients should be admitted preferentially when the likely incremental medical benefit derived from ICU admission justifies admission. An estimate of likely resource use should also form part of the triage decision, with those patients requiring relatively less resources to achieve substantial benefit receiving priority for admission. Thus, the triage system should maximise the benefits obtained from ICU resources available for the community. Where possible, practical examples of what the consensus group agreed would be considered appropriate practice under specified South African circumstances were provided, to assist clinicians with practical decision-making. It must be stressed that this guideline is not intended to be prescriptive for individual hospital or regional practice, and hospitals and regions are encouraged to develop specified local guidelines with locally relevant examples. The guideline should be reviewed and revised if appropriate within 5 years.

Conclusion

In recognition of the absolute need to limit patient access to ICU because of the lack of sufficient intensive care resources in public hospitals, this guideline has been developed to guide policy-making and assist frontline triage decision-making in SA. This document is not a complete plan for quality practice, but rather a template to support frontline clinicians, guide administrators and inform the public regarding appropriate triage decision-making.

The Critical Care Society of Southern Africa Consensus Statement on ICU Triage and Rationing (ConICTri)

Background

In South Africa (SA), intensive care is faced with the challenge of resource scarcity as well as an increasing demand for intensive care unit (ICU) services. ICU services are expensive, and practitioners in low- to middle-income countries experience daily the consequences of limited resources. Critically limited resources necessitate that rationing and triage (prioritisation) decisions are frequently necessary in SA, particularly in the publicly funded health sector.

Purpose

The purpose of this consensus statement is to examine key questions that arise when considering the status of ICU resources in SA, and more specifically ICU admission, rationing and triage decisions. The accompanying guideline in this issue is intended to guide frontline triage policy and ensure the best utilisation of intensive care in SA, while maintaining a fair distribution of available resources. Fair and efficient triage is important to ensure the ongoing provision of high-quality care to adult patients referred for intensive care.

Recommendations

In response to 14 key questions developed using a modified Delphi technique, 29 recommendations were formulated and graded using an adapted GRADE score. The 14 key questions addressed the status of the provision of ICU services in SA, the degree of resource restriction, the efficiency of resource management, the need for triage, and how triage could be most justly implemented. Important recommendations included the need to formally recognise and accurately quantify the provision of ICU services in SA by national audit; actively seek additional resources from governmental bodies; consider methods to maximise the efficiency of ICU care; evaluate lower level of care alternatives; develop a triage guideline to assist policy-makers and frontline practitioners to implement triage decisions in an efficient and fair way; measure and audit the consequence of triage; and promote research to improve the accuracy and consistency of triage decisions. The consensus document and guideline should be reviewed and revised appropriately within 5 years.

Conclusion

In recognition of the absolute need to limit patient access to ICU because of the lack of sufficient intensive care resources in public hospitals, recommendations and a guideline have been developed to guide policy-making and assist frontline triage decision-making in SA. These documents are not a complete plan for quality practice but rather the beginning of a long-term initiative to engage clinicians, the public and administrators in appropriate triage decision-making, and promote systems that will ultimately maximise the efficient and fair use of available ICU resources.

Overflow models for the admission of intensive care patients

An earlier article, inspired by overflow models in telecommunication systems with multiple streams of telephone calls, proposed a new analytical model for a network of intensive care units (ICUs), and a new patient referral policy for such networks to reduce the blocking probability of external emergency patients without degrading the quality of service (QoS) of canceled elective operations, due to the more efficient use of ICU capacity overall. In this work, we use additional concepts and insights from traditional teletraffic theory, including resource sharing, trunk reservation, and mutual overflow, to design a new patient referral policy to further improve ICU network efficiency. Numerical results based on the analytical model demonstrate that our proposed policy can achieve a higher acceptance level than the original policy with a smaller number of beds, resulting in improved service for all patients. In particular, our proposed policy can always achieve much lower blocking probabilities for external emergency patients while still providing sufficient service for internal emergency and elective patients. In addition, we provide new accurate and computationally efficient analytical approximations for QoS evaluation of ICU networks using our proposed policy. We demonstrate numerically that our new approximation method yields more accurate, robust and conservative results overall than the traditional approximation. Finally, we demonstrate how our proposed approximation method can be applied to solve resource planning and optimization problems for ICU networks in a scalable and computationally efficient manner.

Triage decisions for ICU admission: Report from the Task Force of the World Federation of Societies of Intensive and Critical Care Medicine

Demand for intensive care unit (ICU) resources often exceeds supply, and shortages of ICU beds and staff are likely to persist. Triage requires careful weighing of the benefits and risks involved in ICU admission while striving to guarantee fair distribution of available resources. We must ensure that the patients who occupy ICU beds are those most likely to benefit from the ICU's specialized technology and professionals. Although prognosticating is not an exact science, preference should be given to patients who are more likely to survive if admitted to the ICU but unlikely to survive or likely to have more significant morbidity if not admitted. To provide general guidance for intensivists in ICU triage decisions, a task force of the World Federation of Societies of Intensive and Critical Care Medicine addressed 4 basic questions regarding this process. The team made recommendations and concluded that triage should be led by intensivists considering input from nurses, emergency medicine professionals, hospitalists, surgeons, and allied professionals. Triage algorithms and protocols can be useful but can never supplant the role of skilled intensivists basing their decisions on input from multidisciplinary teams. Infrastructures need to be organized efficiently both within individual hospitals and at the regional level. When resources are critically limited, patients may be refused ICU admission if others may benefit more on the basis of the principle of distributive justice.

Pediatric Disposition Classification (Reverse Triage) System to Create Surge Capacity

BACKGROUND

Critically insufficient pediatric hospital capacity may develop during a disaster or surge event. Research is lacking on the creation of pediatric surge capacity. A system of "reverse triage," with early discharge of hospitalized patients, has been developed for adults and shows great potential but is unexplored in pediatrics.

METHODS

We conducted an evidence-based modified-Delphi consensus process with 25 expert panelists to derive a disposition classification system for pediatric inpatients on the basis of risk tolerance for a consequential medical event (CME). For potential validation, critical interventions (CIs) were derived and ranked by using a Likert scale to indicate CME risk should the CI be withdrawn or withheld for early disposition.

RESULTS

Panelists unanimously agreed on a 5-category risk-based disposition classification system. The panelists established upper limit (mean) CME risk for each category as <2% (interquartile range [IQR]: 1-2%); 7% (5-10%), 18% (10-20%), 46% (20-65%), and 72% (50-90%), respectively. Panelists identified 25 CIs with varying degrees of CME likelihood if withdrawn or withheld. Of these, 40% were ranked high risk (Likert scale mean ≥7) and 32% were ranked modest risk (≤3).

CONCLUSIONS

The classification system has potential for an ethically acceptable risk-based taxonomy for pediatric inpatient reverse triage, including identification of those deemed safe for early discharge during surge events.

Triage: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement

BACKGROUND

Pandemics and disasters can result in large numbers of critically ill or injured patients who may overwhelm available resources despite implementing surge-response strategies. If this occurs, critical care triage, which includes both prioritizing patients for care and rationing scarce resources, will be required. The suggestions in this chapter are important for all who are involved in large-scale pandemics or disasters with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials.

METHODS

The Triage topic panel reviewed previous task force suggestions and the literature to identify 17 key questions for which specific literature searches were then conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Suggestions from the previous task force that were not being updated were also included for validation by the expert panel.

RESULTS

The suggestions from the task force outline the key principles upon which critical care triage should be based as well as a path for the development of the plans, processes, and infrastructure required. This article provides 11 suggestions regarding the principles upon which critical care triage should be based and policies to guide critical care triage.

CONCLUSIONS

Ethical and efficient critical care triage is a complex process that requires significant planning and preparation. At present, the prognostic tools required to produce an effective decision support system (triage protocol) as well as the infrastructure, processes, legal protections, and training are largely lacking in most jurisdictions. Therefore, critical care triage should be a last resort after mass critical care surge strategies.

Accuracy of Initial Critical Care Triage Decisions in Blast Versus Non-Blast Trauma

Objective

We investigated the accuracy of initial critical care triage in blast-injured versus non-blast-injured trauma patients, focusing on those inappropriately triaged to the intensive care unit (ICU) for brief (<16 h) stays.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective review of the Israel National Trauma Registry, applying a predetermined definition of need for initial ICU admission.

Results

A total of 883 blast-injured and 112 185 non-blast-injured patients were categorized according to their need for ICU admission. Of these admissions, 5.7% in the blast setting and 8.4% in the non-blast setting were considered unnecessary. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for the triage officers' decisions in assigning patients to the ICU were 95.5%, 98.8%, 77.2, and 0.05, respectively, in the blast setting, and 91.2%, 99.5%, 200.5, and 0.09, respectively, in the non-blast setting.

Conclusions

Triage officers do a better job sending to the ICU only those patients who require initial intensive care in the non-blast setting, though this is obscured by a much greater overall need for ICU-level care in the blast setting. Implementing triage protocols in the blast setting may help reduce the number of patients sent initially to the ICU for brief periods, thus increasing the availability of this resource. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1–7)

Year in review 2012: Critical Care--management

Outcomes research plays a key role in defining the effects of medical care in critical care. Last year Critical Care published a number of papers that evaluated patient-centered and policy-relevant outcomes. We present this review article focusing on key reported outcomes associated with severe community-acquired pneumonia, mortality associated with decisions regarding triage to the ICU, and both short-term and long-term mortality associated with ICU admissions. We further analyze the literature, assessing outcomes such as quality of life and the psychological burden associated with critical care. We also reviewed processes of care, and studies looking at cost analysis of treatment associated with critical care.

Triage of intensive care patients: identifying agreement and controversy

RATIONALE

Intensive care unit (ICU) resources are limited in many hospitals. Patients with little likelihood of surviving are often admitted to ICUs. Others who might benefit from ICU are not admitted.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an updated consensus statement on the principles and recommendations for the triage of patients for ICU beds.

DESIGN

The previous Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) consensus statement was used to develop drafts of general and specific principles and recommendations. Investigators and consultants were sent the statements and responded with their agreement or disagreement.

SETTING

The Eldicus project (triage decision making for the elderly in European intensive care units).

PARTICIPANTS

Eldicus investigators, consultants, and experts consisting of intensivists, users of ICU services, ethicists, administrators, and public policy officials.

INTERVENTIONS

Consensus development was used to grade the statements and recommendations.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Consensus was defined as 80% agreement or more. Consensus was obtained for 54 (87%) of 62 statements including all (19) general principles, 31 (86%) of the specific principles, and 10 (71%) of the recommendations. Inconsistencies in responses were noted for ICU admission and discharge. Despite agreement for guidelines applying to individual patients and an objective triage score, there was no agreement for a survival cutoff for triage, not even for a chance of survival of 0.1%.

CONCLUSIONS

Consensus was reached for most general and specific ICU triage principles and recommendations. Further debate and discussion should help resolve the remaining discrepancies.

A modified sequential organ failure assessment score for critical care triage

OBJECTIVE

The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score has been recommended for triage during a mass influx of critically ill patients, but it requires laboratory measurement of 4 parameters, which may be impractical with constrained resources. We hypothesized that a modified SOFA (MSOFA) score that requires only 1 laboratory measurement would predict patient outcome as effectively as the SOFA score.

METHODS

After a retrospective derivation in a prospective observational study in a 24-bed medical, surgical, and trauma intensive care unit, we determined serial SOFA and MSOFA scores on all patients admitted during the 2008 calendar year and compared the ability to predict mortality and the need for mechanical ventilation.

RESULTS

A total of 1770 patients (56% male patients) with a 30-day mortality of 10.5% were included in the study. Day 1 SOFA and MSOFA scores performed equally well at predicting mortality with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.81-.85) and 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.82-.85), respectively (P = .33 for comparison). Day 3 SOFA and MSOFA predicted mortality for the 828 patients remaining in the intensive care unit with an AUC of 0.78 and 0.79, respectively. Day 5 scores performed less well at predicting mortality. Day 1 SOFA and MSOFA predicted the need for mechanical ventilation on day 3, with an AUC of 0.83 and 0.82, respectively. Mortality for the highest category of SOFA and MSOFA score (>11 points) was 53% and 58%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The MSOFA predicts mortality as well as the SOFA and is easier to implement in resource-constrained settings, but using either score as a triage tool would exclude many patients who would otherwise survive.

Allocating scarce resources in disasters: emergency department principles

Decisions about medical resource triage during disasters require a planned structured approach, with foundational elements of goals, ethical principles, concepts of operations for reactive and proactive triage, and decision tools understood by the physicians and staff before an incident. Though emergency physicians are often on the front lines of disaster situations, too often they have not considered how they should modify their decisionmaking or use of resources to allow the "greatest good for the greatest number" to be accomplished. This article reviews key concepts from the disaster literature, providing the emergency physician with a framework of ethical and operational principles on which medical interventions provided may be adjusted according to demand and the resources available. Incidents may require a range of responses from an institution and providers, from conventional (maximal use of usual space, staff, and supplies) to contingency (use of other patient care areas and resources to provide functionally equivalent care) and crisis (adjusting care provided to the resources available when usual care cannot be provided). This continuum is defined and may be helpful when determining the scope of response and assistance necessary in an incident. A range of strategies is reviewed that can be implemented when there is a resource shortfall. The resource and staff requirements of specific incident types (trauma, burn incidents) are briefly considered, providing additional preparedness and decisionmaking tactics to the emergency provider. It is difficult to think about delivering medical care under austere conditions. Preparation and understanding of the decisions required and the objectives, strategies, and tactics available can result in better-informed decisions during an event. In turn, adherence to such a response framework can yield thoughtful stewardship of resources and improved outcomes for a larger number of patients.

The Simple Triage Scoring System (STSS) successfully predicts mortality and critical care resource utilization in H1N1 pandemic flu: a retrospective analysis

INTRODUCTION

Triage protocols are only initiated when it is apparent that resource deficits will occur across a broad geographical area despite efforts to expand or acquire additional capacity. Prior to the pandemic the UK Department of Health (DOH) recommended the use of a staged triage plan incorporating Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) developed by the Ontario Ministry of Health to assist in the triage of critical care admissions and discharges during an influenza outbreak in the UK. There are data to suggest that had it been used in the recent H1N1 pandemic it may have led to inappropriate limitation of therapy if surge capacity had been overwhelmed.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the performance of the Simple Triage Scoring System (STSS) as an indicator of the utilization of hospital resources in adult patients with confirmed H1N1 admitted to a university teaching hospital. Our aim was to compare it against the staged initial SOFA score process with regards to mortality, need for intensive care admission and requirement for mechanical ventilation and assess its validity.

RESULTS

Over an 8 month period, 62 patients with confirmed H1N1 were admitted. Forty (65%) had documented comorbidities and 27 (44%) had pneumonic changes on their admission CXR. Nineteen (31%) were admitted to the intensive care unit where 5 (26%) required mechanical ventilation (MV). There were 3 deaths. The STSS group categorization demonstrated a better discriminating accuracy in predicting critical care resource usage with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (95% confidence interval) for ICU admission of 0.88 (0.78-0.98) and need for MV of 0.91 (0.83-0.99). This compared to the staged SOFA score of 0.77 (0.65-0.89) and 0.87 (0.72-1.00) respectively. Low mortality rates limited analysis on survival predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The STSS accurately risk stratified patients in this cohort according to their risk of death and predicted the likelihood of admission to critical care and the requirement for MV. Its single point in time, accuracy and easily collected component variables commend it as an alternative reproducible system to facilitate the triage and treatment of patients in any future influenza pandemic.