Predicting Novel Riparian Ecosystems in a Changing Climate

Identifying keystone connectivity spots under climate change: Implications to conservation and management of riparian systems

Climate change has intensified the effects of habitat fragmentation in many ecosystems, particularly exacerbated in riparian habitats. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify keystone connectivity spots to ensure long-term conservation and sustainable management of riparian systems as they play a crucial role for landscape connectivity. This paper aims to identify critical areas for connectivity under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 models) for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 and to group these critical areas by similar connectivity in keystone spots for sustainable management. A set of analyses comprising climate analysis, drainage network analysis, configuration of potential riparian habitats, riparian habitat connectivity, data clustering, and statistical analysis within a Spanish river basin (NW Spain) were applied. The node and link connectivity would be reduced under the two climate change scenarios (≈2.5 % and 4.4 % reduction, respectively), intensifying riparian habitat fragmentation. Furthermore, 51 different clusters (critical areas) were obtained and classified in five classes (keystone spots) with similar connectivity across the different scenarios of climate change. Each keystone spot obtained by hierarchical classification was associated with one or more climate scenarios. One of these keystone spots was especially susceptible to the worst climate change scenario. Key riparian connectivity spots will be crucial for the management and restoration of highly threatened riparian systems and to ensure long-term biodiversity conservation.

Pressures on Boreal Riparian Vegetation: A Literature Review

Riparian zones are species-rich and functionally important ecotones that sustain physical, chemical and ecological balance of ecosystems. While scientific, governmental and public attention for riparian zones has increased over the past decades, knowledge on the effects of the majority of anthropogenic disturbances is still lacking. Given the increasing expansion and intensity of these disturbances, the need to understand simultaneously occurring pressures grows. We have conducted a literature review on the potential effects of anthropogenic pressures on boreal riparian zones and the main processes that shape their vegetation composition. We visualised the observed and potential consequences of flow regulation for hydropower generation, flow regulation through channelisation, the climate crisis, forestry, land use change and non-native species in a conceptual model. The model shows how these pressures change different aspects of the flow regime and plant habitats, and we describe how these changes affect the extent of the riparian zone and dispersal, germination, growth and competition of plants. Main consequences of the pressures we studied are the decrease of the extent of the riparian zone and a poorer state of the area that remains. This already results in a loss of riparian plant species and riparian functionality, and thus also threatens aquatic systems and the organisms that depend on them. We also found that the impact of a pressure does not linearly reflect its degree of ubiquity and the scale on which it operates. Hydropower and the climate crisis stand out as major threats to boreal riparian zones and will continue to be so if no appropriate measures are taken. Other pressures, such as forestry and different types of land uses, can have severe effects but have more local and regional consequences. Many pressures, such as non-native species and the climate crisis, interact with each other and can limit or, more often, amplify each other’s effects. However, we found that there are very few studies that describe the effects of simultaneously occurring and, thus, potentially interacting pressures. While our model shows where they may interact, the extent of the interactions thus remains largely unknown.

Accumulation and health implications of metals in topsoil of an urban riparian zone adjacent to different functional areas in a subtropical city

The riparian zone is a river-land ecotone, and its environmental conditions have a significant effect on the river ecosystem and population health. In this study, As, Cu, Cr, Cd, Mn, Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn in the topsoils of urban riparian zones in a subtropical city in southeast China were quantitatively estimated by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry. The geoaccumulation index and health risk evaluation model were adopted to assess the accumulation characteristic and health risk of residents' exposure to metals. Principle component analysis was used to determine the source of metals. The results showed that the mean contents of metals (except Fe) were higher than the soil background value, but none of the metal contents exceeded the mass limit of environmental quality standards. The order of the geoaccumulation index was Cd > Mn > Cu > Cr > Pb > Zn > As > Ni > Fe. The contamination level of Cd was classified as slight, whereas the other metals did not contribute to pollution. The spatial distribution of metals in the riparian zone was compatible with the pattern of functional zones in the adjacent urban areas, where levels of Cr, Cd, Fe, Mn, and Ni were higher in commercial areas, as were Pb and Zn in under-construction land and As in residential and industrial areas. Carcinogenic risks of Cr, As, and Pb were acceptable. The hazard index indicated no significant noncarcinogenic risks from any metals. However, noncarcinogenic risks of metals other than Mn were higher for children than for adults, and the primary exposure route of metal into the human body was ingestion for children and inhalation for adults. Principle component analysis indicated that the primary sources of Cr, Ni, Mn, Cu, and Fe were pedogenic processes and mineral weathering, whereas Zn, As, Pb, and Cd mainly originated from anthropogenic sources, specifically, Zn from transportation emission, Pb from transportation emission and industry waste, As from coal combustion and residential waste, and Cd from pigments/paint used in commercial buildings, urban greening, consumer waste, and transportation emission.

Invasion of temperate deciduous broadleaf forests by N-fixing tree species - consequences for stream ecosystems

Biological invasions are a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Forest invasion by alien woody species can have cross-ecosystem effects. This is especially relevant in the case of stream-riparian forest meta-ecosystems as forest streams depend strongly on riparian vegetation for carbon, nutrients and energy. Forest invasion by woody species with dissimilar characteristics from native species may be particularly troublesome. The invasion of temperate deciduous broadleaf forests with low representation of nitrogen (N)-fixing species by N-fixers has the potential to induce ecosystem changes at the stream level. Although effects of tree invasion on stream ecosystems have been under assessed, knowledge of native and invasive tree characteristics allows prediction of invasion effects on streams. Here we present a conceptual model to predict the effects of forest invasion by alien N-fixing species on streams, using as a background the invasion of temperate deciduous broadleaf forests by leguminous Acacia species, which are among the most aggressive invaders worldwide. Effects are discussed using a trait-based approach to allow the model to be applied to other pairs of invaded ecosystem-invasive species, taking into account differences in species traits and environmental conditions. Anticipated effects of N-fixing species invasions include changes in water quality (increase in N concentration) and quantity (decrease in flow) and changes in litter input characteristics (altered diversity, seasonality, typology, quantity and quality). The magnitude of these changes will depend on the magnitude of differences in species traits, the extent and duration of the invasion and stream characteristics (e.g. basal nutrient concentration). The extensive literature on effects of nutrient enrichment of stream water, water scarcity and changes in litter input characteristics on aquatic communities and processes allows prediction of invasion effects on stream structure and function. The magnitude of invasion effects on aquatic communities and processes may, however, depend on interactions among different pathways (e.g. effects mediated by increases in stream nutrient concentration may contrast with those mediated by decreases in water availability or by decreases in litter nutritional quality). A review of the literature addressing effects of increasing cover of N-fixing species on streams suggests a wide application of the model, while it highlights the need to consider differences in the type of system and species when making generalizations. Changes induced by N-fixing species invasion on streams can jeopardize multiple ecosystem services (e.g. good quality water, hydroelectricity, leisure activities), with relevant social and economic consequences.

Smaller future floods imply less habitat for riparian plants along a boreal river

Climate-change projections suggest large changes in riverine flow regime, which will likely alter riparian communities. In northern Europe, forecasts propose lower annual spring flood peaks and higher winter flows, resulting in narrower riparian zones. To estimate the impact of climate change on habitat extent of riparian plants, we developed a framework estimating the sensitivity and exposure of individual species to streamflow change, and surveyed five reaches along the free-flowing Vindel River in northern Sweden. We modeled the hydrologic niche of riparian plant species based on the probability of occurrence along gradients of flood frequency and duration and used predicted future water-level fluctuations (based on climate models and IPCC emission scenarios) to calculate changes in flow-related habitat availability of individual species. Despite projected increases in runoff, we predict most species to decrease in riparian elevational extent by on average 12-29% until the end of the century, depending on scenario. Species growing in the upper, spring-flood-controlled part of the riparian zone will likely lose most habitat, with the largest reductions in species with narrow ranges of inundation duration tolerance (decreases of up to 54%). In contrast, the elevational extent of most amphibious species is predicted to increase, but conditions creating isoëtid vegetation will become rarer or disappear: isoëtid vegetation is presently found in areas where ice formed in the fall settles on the riverbank during the winter as water levels subside. Higher winter flows will make these conditions rare. We argue that our framework is useful to project the effects of hydrologic change caused by climate change as well as other stressors such as flow regulation also in other regions. With few rivers remaining unaffected by dams and other human stressors, these results call for monitoring to detect species declines. Management to alleviate species losses might include mitigation of habitat degradation from land-use activities, more environmentally friendly flow schemes, and more intensive management options such as mowing riparian meadows no longer regularly maintained by recurrent floods.

Gene Flow and Genetic Variation Explain Signatures of Selection across a Climate Gradient in Two Riparian Species

Many species occur across environmental gradients and it is expected that these species will exhibit some signals of adaptation as heterogeneous environments and localized gene flow may facilitate local adaptation. While riparian zones can cross climate gradients, many of which are being impacted by climate change, they also create microclimates for the vegetation, reducing environmental heterogeneity. Species with differing distributions in these environments provide an opportunity to investigate the importance of genetic connectivity in influencing signals of adaptation over relatively short geographical distance. Association analysis with genomic data was used to compare signals of selection to climate variables in two species that have differing distributions along a river traversing a climate gradient. Results demonstrate links between connectivity, standing genetic variation, and the development of signals of selection. In the restricted species, the combination of high gene flow in the middle and lower catchment and occurrence in a microclimate created along riverbanks likely mitigated the development of selection to most climatic variables. In contrast the more widely distributed species with low gene flow showed a stronger signal of selection. Together these results strengthen our knowledge of the drivers and scale of adaptation and reinforce the importance of connectivity across a landscape to maintain adaptive potential of plant species.

Climate-driven changes of riparian plant functional types in permanent headwater streams. Implications for stream food webs

Little is known regarding consequences of climate change on riparian plant functional types (PFTs) related to leaf traits, with putative domino effects on stream food webs, plausible even if the tipping point of stream-desiccation is not reached. We hypothesized that, as stream food-webs are highly dependent on riparian subsidies, climate change might alter PFTs to the point of weakening terrestrial-aquatic linkages. We conducted a gradient analysis to assess the relative effects of climate, soil and riparian physical characteristics on PFTs. If PFTs differ significantly in leaf traits and climate had major influences on them, we could assume space-for-time interchangeability forward in time to predict leaf traits changes, and consequences for stream food webs under future climate change scenarios. Results indicated a clear distinction in leaf traits among PFTs: woody deciduous plants showed leaf traits associated to high decomposability and nutritional value for invertebrate shredders compared to evergreen woody and giant graminoid groups. We found a prime role of climate predicting changes in abundance and diversity of PFTs: 1) a warming and precipitation-decline scenario, coupled with soil characteristics related to aridification, would have detrimental effects on deciduous plants, while fostering giant graminoids; 2) in a scenario of no precipitation-reduction in wetter areas, warming might promote the expansion of evergreen to the detriment of deciduous plants. In both scenarios the net outcome implies increasing recalcitrance of leaf litter inputs, potentially weakening terrestrial-aquatic linkages in headwater streams.

Structural and functional responses of plant communities to climate change-mediated alterations in the hydrology of riparian areas in temperate Europe

The hydrology of riparian areas changes rapidly these years because of climate change‐mediated alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we used a large‐scale in situ experimental approach to explore effects of drought and flooding on plant taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition in riparian areas in temperate Europe. We found significant effects of flooding and drought in all study areas, the effects being most pronounced under flooded conditions. In near‐stream areas, taxonomic diversity initially declined in response to both drought and flooding (although not significantly so in all years) and remained stable under drought conditions, whereas the decline continued under flooded conditions. For most traits, we found clear indications that the functional diversity also declined under flooded conditions, particularly in near‐stream areas, indicating that fewer strategies succeeded under flooded conditions. Consistent changes in community mean trait values were also identified, but fewer than expected. This can have several, not mutually exclusive, explanations. First, different adaptive strategies may coexist in a community. Second, intraspecific variability was not considered for any of the traits. For example, many species can elongate shoots and petioles that enable them to survive shallow, prolonged flooding but such abilities will not be captured when applying mean trait values. Third, we only followed the communities for 3 years. Flooding excludes species intolerant of the altered hydrology, whereas the establishment of new species relies on time‐dependent processes, for instance the dispersal and establishment of species within the areas. We expect that altered precipitation patterns will have profound consequences for riparian vegetation in temperate Europe. Riparian areas will experience loss of taxonomic and functional diversity and, over time, possibly also alterations in community trait responses that may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning.

Effects of increased flooding on riparian vegetation: Field experiments simulating climate change along five European lowland streams

In many parts of the world, the magnitude and frequency of cold-season precipitation are expected to increase in the near future. This will result in an increased magnitude and duration of winter and spring flooding by rain-fed streams and rivers. Such climate-driven increases in flooding are likely to affect riparian plant communities, but future vegetation changes are hard to predict due to current lack of data. To fill this knowledge gap, we experimentally modified the hydrology of five streams across three countries in north-western Europe during late winter/early spring over a period of 3 years. We assessed the responses in riparian plant species richness, biomass, plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus and seed deposition to increased flooding depth (+18 cm on average at the lowest positions along the riparian gradient) and prolonged flooding duration (6 weeks on average). After 3 years of increased flooding, there was an overall decline in riparian species richness, while riparian plant biomass increased. Extractable soil nitrogen and phosphorus also increased and are likely to have contributed to the increased biomass. Increased flooding resulted in the arrival of more seeds of additional species to the riparian zone, thereby potentially facilitating the shifts in riparian plant species composition we observed. The results of our concerted experimental effort demonstrate that changes in stream riparian plant communities can occur rapidly following increased winter flooding, leading to strong reductions in plant species diversity.

Big biology meets microclimatology: defining thermal niches of ectotherms at landscape scales for conservation planning

Temperature profoundly affects ecology, a fact ever more evident as the ability to measure thermal environments increases and global changes alter these environments. The spatial structure of thermalscapes is especially relevant to the distribution and abundance of ectothermic organisms, but the ability to describe biothermal relationships at extents and grains relevant to conservation planning has been limited by small or sparse data sets. Here, we combine a large occurrence database of >23 000 aquatic species surveys with stream microclimate scenarios supported by an equally large temperature database for a 149 000-km mountain stream network to describe thermal relationships for 14 fish and amphibian species. Species occurrence probabilities peaked across a wide range of temperatures (7.0-18.8°C) but distinct warm- or cold-edge distribution boundaries were apparent for all species and represented environments where populations may be most sensitive to thermal changes. Warm-edge boundary temperatures for a native species of conservation concern were used with geospatial data sets and a habitat occupancy model to highlight subsets of the network where conservation measures could benefit local populations by maintaining cool temperatures. Linking that strategic approach to local estimates of habitat impairment remains a key challenge but is also an opportunity to build relationships and develop synergies between the research, management, and regulatory communities. As with any data mining or species distribution modeling exercise, care is required in analysis and interpretation of results, but the use of large biological data sets with accurate microclimate scenarios can provide valuable information about the thermal ecology of many ectotherms and a spatially explicit way of guiding conservation investments.

Addressing the local aspects of global change impacts on stream metabolism using frequency analysis tools

Global change, as a combination of climate change, human activities on watersheds and the river flow regulation, causes intense changes in hydrological cycles and, consequently, threatens the good ecological status of freshwater biological communities. This study addresses how and whether the combination of climatic drivers and local human impacts may alter the metabolism of freshwater communities. We identified a few factors modulating the natural water flow and quality in 25 point spread within the Ebro river Basin: waste water spills, industrial spills, reservoir discharges, water withdrawals, agricultural use, and the presence of riparian forests. We assessed their impacts on the freshwater metabolism as changes in the annual cycle of both gross primary production-GPP - and ecosystem respiration-ER -. For this purpose, daily data series were analyzed by continuous wavelet transformation, allowing for the assessment of the metabolic ecosystem Frequency Spectrum Patterns (FSPs). Changes in the behavior of ecosystem metabolism were strongly associated with local characteristics at each sampling point, however in 20 out of 25 studied points, changes in metabolic ecosystem FSP were related to climatic change events (the driest period of the last 140years). The changes in FSP indicate that severe impacts on how biological communities use carbon sources occur as a result of the human water management - too much focus on human needs - during intense climatic events. Results show that local factors, and specially the flow regulation, may modulate the impact of global change. As example those points exposed to a more intense anthropization showed a clear disruption - and even disappearance - of the annual FSP. This information may help managers to understand the action mechanisms of non-climatic factors at ecosystem level, leading to better management policies based on the promotion of ecosystem resilience. The method here presented may help on improving the calculation of ecological flows to maintain the river metabolic annual cycles as close as possible to the natural ones.

Land use change in the Atlantic Forest affects carbon and nitrogen sources of streams as revealed by the isotopic composition of terrestrial invertebrates

Terrestrial invertebrates link terrestrial systems to aquatic ones, making vegetal material produced in the watershed available to aquatic food webs. In this study, using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes, we evaluated the importance of introduced C4 grasses as a source of carbon in aquatic food webs of headwater streams of the coastal Atlantic Forest located on the north coast of the State of São Paulo, in the southeastern region of Brazil. Terrestrial invertebrates were collected in two streams: one where the main land cover was pristine montane Atlantic Forest (forest stream) and another where the main land cover was introduced C4 forage grasses for livestock (pasture stream). The average δ13C of terrestrial invertebrates collected in the forest stream (−26.3±2.1‰) was significantly (p<0.01) smaller than the average δ13C of terrestrial invertebrates collected in the pasture stream (−15.7±4.7‰), denoting a larger contribution of C4grasses to terrestrial invertebrates of the pasture stream. The average δ15N of terrestrial invertebrates of the forest stream (4.1±2.4‰) was significantly (p<0.01) lower than the average δ15N of terrestrial invertebrates of the pasture stream (9.5±2.7‰). The relative contribution of C3 and C4 plants to terrestrial invertebrates was estimated using SIAR. In the forest stream, the C3 contribution was on average 0.75 (0.72 minimum to 0.79 maximum), and the C4 contribution was on average 0.25 (0.21 minimum to 0.28 maximum). In the pasture stream, the C3contribution decreased to 0.20 (0.14 minimum to 0.26 maximum), and the C4 contribution increased to 0.80 (0.74 minimum to 0.86 maximum). These results have several implications for the ecosystem functioning as well as for recent changes in environmental policies of Brazil. The lower nutritional value of C4 grasses may not only decrease invertebrate performance, but also alter the stoichiometry of several components of the aquatic food webs with potential consequence for the whole ecosystem functioning. On the public policy side, recent changes in the Brazilian Forest Act, a series of laws that regulate land cover at the property level, reduced the width of the forested riparian area with potentially dangerous consequences for aquatic ecosystems.

Predicting the likely response of data-poor ecosystems to climate change using space-for-time substitution across domains

Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a robust scientific basis for estimating likely impacts of future climate change in ecosystems where no such method currently exists.

Effects of climate-induced increases in summer drought on riparian plant species: a meta-analysis

1. Frequency and duration of summer droughts are predicted to increase in the near future in many parts of the world, with considerable anticipated effects on riparian plant community composition and species richness. Riparian plant communities along lowland streams are characterised by high species richness due to their system-specific environmental gradients. As these streams and their hydrological gradients are mainly rain-fed, they are sensitive to precipitation changes. 2. We conducted a literature survey and meta-analysis to examine the effects of an increase in summer drought on: (i) riparian plant biomass; (ii) riparian seedling survival and (iii) riparian plant species composition and richness. We also aimed to determine whether hydrological thresholds related to drought tolerance can be distinguished for riparian plant species. 3. ISI Web of Knowledge was searched for relevant peer-reviewed studies, and 23 papers were found that met our criteria and contained quantitative study results. To detect overall responses of biomass and seedling survival, a random-effects model was applied using Comprehensive Meta-analysis™ software. Regression curves were then fitted to response ratio data relating the effects on drought-impacted groups to those on control groups. 4. Our results showed that a drought duration of approximately >30 days strongly reduces riparian plant biomass and that a duration of approximately >30-35 days and high drought intensities (starting from 3 to 4 cm water table decline per day) can be detrimental for riparian seedling survival. Especially Populus and Salix seedlings showed a reduced survival in response to drought, in contrast to Tamarix seedlings, which have the ability to rapidly and expansively elongate their roots. The data also revealed that an increase in drought conditions rapidly leads to a decline of riparian species richness and an increased presence of species adjusted to drier conditions. 5. Riparian groundwater level, surface water permanence and certain plant traits, especially plasticity in rooting depth, were mentioned most frequently as factors determining species responses. Very few studies mentioned hydrological thresholds, such as critical values for ground- and/or surface water levels, and so far these results have proved difficult to generalise. 6. Our meta-analysis has shown that the projected increase in the duration and intensity of drought periods, especially intense droughts lasting more than 30 days, can be expected to narrow the riparian wetland zone with typical hydric species and accelerate riparian wetland species losses in the near future. This may require extra efforts in terms of management and restoration of species-rich riparian areas.