Social Vulnerability of Marine Resource Users to Extreme Weather Events

Social-ecological vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries to climate change

Climate change is a new disrupter to global fisheries systems and their governance frameworks. It poses a pressing management challenge, particularly in China, which is renowned as the world's largest fishing country and seafood producer. As climate change continues to intensify in the region and climate awareness grows within the country's national policy, the need to understand China's fisheries' resilience to the escalating climate crisis becomes paramount. In this study, we conduct an interdisciplinary analysis to assess the vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries in response to climate change. This study employs a spatially explicit, indicator-based approach with a coupled social-ecological framework, focusing on 67 species and 11 coastal regions. By integrating diverse sets of climatic, ecological, economic, societal, and governance indicators and information, we elucidate the factors that could hinder climate adaptation, including a limited understanding of fish early life stages, uncertainty in seafood production, unequal allocation and accessibility of resources, and inadequate consideration of inclusive governance and adaptive management. Our results show that species, which have managed to survive the stress of overfishing, demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt to climate change. However, collapsing stocks such as large yellow croaker face a high risk due to the synergistic effects of inherent biological traits and external management interventions. We emphasize the imperative to build institutional, scientific, and social capacity to support fisheries adaptation. The scientific insights provided by this study can inform fisheries management decisions and promote the operationalization of climate-resilient fisheries in China and other regions.

A global synthesis of climate vulnerability assessments on marine fisheries: Methods, scales, and knowledge co-production

Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social-ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.

A methodological framework for assessing pastoral socio-ecological system vulnerability: A case study of Altay Prefecture in Central Asia

Vulnerability analysis is important for enhancing sustainability, especially for highly interlinked pastoral socio-ecological systems. This study presents a modified methodological framework for assessing the vulnerability of pastoral socio-ecological systems based on the interactions between social and ecological subsystems and their vulnerabilities. Altay Prefecture (Northwest China), a typical pastoral area located in Central Asia, was chosen for the case study. The ecological vulnerability index (EVI) and socio-ecological vulnerability index (SEVI) of Altay Prefecture from 2001 to 2018 were assessed and classified into five levels. The results showed that the distribution pattern of EVI was spatially heterogeneous, with EVI increasing from north to south and from west to east. The EVI was high in low-altitude deserts, decreased with altitude rising from 1300 m to 2200 m, and increased when the altitude exceeded 2200 m. The average EVI increased from 2001 to 2010 and decreased from 2010 to 2018, with the highest EVI in 2010 and the lowest in 2018. The SEVI of western counties was lower than that of eastern counties; the SEVI of all counties continuously decreased from 2001 to 2018, with a higher rate from 2010 to 2018. Social adaptive capacity, increased by the policies that aim at protecting grasslands and improving livelihoods, was the main influencing factor of the SEVI dynamic. These results will help to identify key areas with high EVI for grassland ecosystem management and strengthen the adaptive capacity for addressing vulnerability. Furthermore, the presented methodological framework can be adopted in vulnerability assessments of similar pastoral areas or natural resource-based socio-ecological systems.

Associations between temperature variations and tourist arrivals: analysis based on Baidu Index of hot-spring tourism in 44 cities in China

Hot-spring tourism refers to entertainment, health preservation, commercial conferences, and other leisure activities at hot-spring locations. This tourism often shows periodic variability, which may be due to seasonal temperature variations. However, studies on the effects of temperature variations on tourist arrivals at hot springs are limited. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate this relationship in 31 provincial capital cities and 13 s-tier cities in China. Using the Baidu Index, we obtained data for tourist arrivals to hot springs in each city and constructed a generalised additive model to explore the associations between temperature variations and tourist arrivals. We also analysed the statistical significance of the estimated effects during different seasons to explore potential effect modification. A 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 1.81% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.69-1.93) decrease in daily tourist arrivals for hot-spring tourism. Significant positive associations between the abovementioned factors were observed in summer (2.18% change, 95% CI: 1.32-3.04). The effect of temperature on the volume of tourist arrivals may last for approximately 2 months. Robustness analysis confirmed the data reliability. The results indicate that significant relationships exist between temperature variations and hot-spring tourism arrivals, which vary seasonally. This study has significant implications for travel agencies to effectively manage tourist visits to hot spring locations.

Perspectives on socio-ecological studies in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

Socio-ecology studies the relationships between human activities and natural systems and their importance in management and public policy. Our objective was to analyse how published papers in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) perform socio-ecological studies and compare them between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. To do this, we used the Scopus platform as a source for searching and obtaining scientific papers about socio-ecological studies conducted in countries from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. We calculated the number (n) of papers published per year and classified them using the main subject areas of the SCImago Journal & Country Rank database. Then, we analysed whether papers included specific recommendations for natural system management, nature conservation, policies or governance structures, or science in general. Besides, we studied whether the papers addressed socio-ecological studies related to flora and fauna and from what specific group of organisms or systems. Data were compared using the chi-square (χ ²) test (Pearson p < 0.005). A total of 467 papers were analysed, where 34% were from the Southern Hemisphere (mainly Argentina, Australia, Chile, and South Africa) and 66% from the Northern Hemisphere (mainly the USA, Canada, and Spain). The Northern Hemisphere (mainly North America and Europe) played a major role in the socio-ecological knowledge exchange than the Southern Hemisphere (South America and Africa). The results showed socio-ecological studies focused mainly on generating management recommendations in social and environmental science fields. The number of studies coming from the Northern Hemisphere was significantly higher than those from the Southern Hemisphere. Most of them were conducted at a local level (e.g., watersheds or human settlements) in three different systems (i) terrestrial (e.g., forests or grasslands), (ii) freshwater (e.g., rivers or streams) and (iii) marine (e.g., coastlines or seas). Most of the studies (70%) were conducted in production systems, where the majority included livestock (mainly bovine) and aquatic fisheries (e.g., salmon, artisanal coastal fishing, or trout). Most vegetation papers (65%) were on native forests. Papers on wildlife made up 30% of all animal-related studies, with mammals, birds, and marine invertebrates (such as collars) being the most extensively researched species. This work highlighted the socio-ecological approach that was used in the analysed countries with greater HDI to develop management options for natural systems.

An assessment of people living by coral reefs over space and time

Human populations near ecosystems are used as both a proxy for dependency on ecosystems, and conversely to estimate threats. Consequently, the number of people living near coral reefs is often used in regional coral reef management, evaluation of risk at regional and global scales, and even considerations of funding needs. Human populations and their statistics, are ever-changing and data relating to coral reefs have not been updated regularly. Here, we present an up-to-date analysis of the abundance, and density of people living within 5-100 km of coral reef ecosystems along with population proportion, using freely available data sets and replicable methods. We present trends of changes in human populations living near coral reefs over a 20-year time period (2000-2020), divided by region and country, along with socio-economic denominations such as country income category and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). We find that across 117 coral reef countries there are currently close to a billion people living within 100 km of a coral reef (~13% of the global population) compared with 762 million people in 2000. Population growth by coral reefs is higher than global averages. The Indian Ocean saw a 33% increase in populations within 100 km of a coral reef and 71% at 5 km. There are 60 countries with 100% of their population within 100 km of coral reefs. In SIDS, the proportion of the total population within 100 km of a coral reef is extremely high: 94% in 2020. Population density 5-10 km from coral reefs is 4× the global average. From 5 to 100 km, more people from lower-middle-income countries live by coral reefs than any other income category. Our findings provide the most up-to-date and extensive statistics on the regional and nation-level differences in population trends that play a large role in coral reef health and survival.

Effect of an illegal open dump in an urban forest on landscape appreciation

Rubbish in a forest environment is a great threat to this ecosystem, but this threat may also apply to the lost benefits for visitors to the forest. Previous studies proved that forest areas have a positive effect on obtaining psychological relaxation in the people visiting them. However, it was not known whether this restorative experience could be disturbed in any way by the presence of an open dump in the forest. To check how the presence of a landfill affects the visitors, an experiment was planned in which the respondents observed a forest area with a landfill and a forest landscape without a landfill for 15 minutes (control). The respondents then assessed the landscape using the semantic differential method and the Perceived Restorativeness Scale (PRS). An analysis of these observations showed that the presence of a landfill in the forest significantly changed the appreciation of the landscape by the respondents, the values of positive experiences decreased, and the negative experiences increased. Restorativeness was also reduced. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the presence of garbage in the forest may interrupt the restorative experience of its visitors.

Hierarchical Structure Model of Safety Risk Factors in New Coastal Towns: A Systematic Analysis Using the DEMATEL-ISM-SNA Method

When a coastal town transforms from a rural area to an emerging city, it faces many safety risks. Some are new risks from urban construction, while some are traditional risks that belong to this coastal area. The joint efforts of these risks may lead to new hazards, harming public health, but this problem has not been noticed in previous studies. Therefore, this study constructs the Triangular Framework for Safety Risk in New Towns to identify the risks and proposes strategies to reduce the risks. In this study, multiple methods are integrated, including Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and Social Network Analysis (SNA). This study takes the Lin-gang Special Area in China as a case study to verify the framework's effectiveness. Sixteen disaster-causing factors are identified, and the internal linkages among these factors are clarified. Results show that the hybrid method performs well in quantitatively analyzing the risk factors of new coastal towns. A typhoon, public risk perception, and population migration are essential influencing factors. Disaster prevention capability of high-rise buildings, disaster prevention capacity of port facilities, and transportation are the most direct influencing factors. Environmental degradation is the most conductive among all elements. This study contributes to the theoretical theory by proposing an effective framework to analyze the safety risks in new coastal towns. In addition, it provides practical references for governments to make emergency plans in the city.

Social-ecological vulnerability of fishing communities to climate change: A U.S. West Coast case study

Climate change is already impacting coastal communities, and ongoing and future shifts in fisheries species productivity from climate change have implications for the livelihoods and cultures of coastal communities. Harvested marine species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem support U.S. West Coast communities economically, socially, and culturally. Ecological vulnerability assessments exist for individual species in the California Current but ecological and human vulnerability are linked and vulnerability is expected to vary by community. Here, we present automatable, reproducible methods for assessing the vulnerability of U.S. West Coast fishing dependent communities to climate change within a social-ecological vulnerability framework. We first assessed the ecological risk of marine resources, on which fishing communities rely, to 50 years of climate change projections. We then combined this with the adaptive capacity of fishing communities, based on social indicators, to assess the potential ability of communities to cope with future changes. Specific communities (particularly in Washington state) were determined to be at risk to climate change mainly due to economic reliance on at risk marine fisheries species, like salmon, hake, or sea urchins. But, due to higher social adaptive capacity, these communities were often not found to be the most vulnerable overall. Conversely, certain communities that were not the most at risk, ecologically and economically, ranked in the category of highly vulnerable communities due to low adaptive capacity based on social indicators (particularly in Southern California). Certain communities were both ecologically at risk due to catch composition and socially vulnerable (low adaptive capacity) leading to the highest tier of vulnerability. The integration of climatic, ecological, economic, and societal data reveals that factors underlying vulnerability are variable across fishing communities on the U.S West Coast, and suggests the need to develop a variety of well-aligned strategies to adapt to the ecological impacts of climate change.

Knowledge Domain and Emerging Trends of Social Vulnerability Research: A Bibliometric Analysis (1991–2021)

Carrying out social vulnerability research has become an important way to understand the sustainable development of resources, the environment, populations, and societies. Clarifying the research context and development trend of social vulnerability is of great significance to the follow-up theoretical research on and practical exploration of sustainable social development. With the help of a CiteSpace knowledge map analysis, this study reveals the research hotspots and their evolution in different periods and puts forward the key problems in and future direction of social vulnerability research in the future. This study found that the number of articles on social vulnerability research showed a steady upward trend and that the research experienced roughly three stages: an embryonic stage, a development stage, and a stable stage. The United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and China accounted for the majority of the research, but the intensity of cooperation between them is still weak. Vulnerability assessment and risk assessment in the context of policy and environmental change are hot topics in the current research. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the comprehensive research on the integrated and cross-scale research on social vulnerability, research on its occurrence and evolution, and on the dynamic monitoring as well as optimal regulation of social vulnerability under multiple pressures.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Rapid adaptation to crisis events: Insights from the bait crisis in the Maine lobster fishery

Climate change, overfishing, and other anthropogenic drivers are forcing marine resource users and decision makers to adapt-often rapidly. In this article we introduce the concept of pathways to rapid adaptation to crisis events to bring attention to the double-edged role that institutions play in simultaneously enabling and constraining swift responses to emerging crises. To develop this concept, we draw on empirical evidence from a case study of the iconic Maine lobster (Homarus americanus) industry. In the Gulf of Maine, the availability of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) stock, a key source of bait in the Maine lobster industry, declined sharply. We investigate the patterns of bait use in the fishery over an 18-year period (2002-2019) and how the lobster industry was able to abruptly adapt to the decline of locally-sourced herring in 2019 that came to be called the bait crisis. We found that adaptation strategies to the crisis were diverse, largely uncoordinated, and imperfectly aligned, but ultimately led to a system-level shift towards a more diverse and globalized bait supply. This shift was enabled by existing institutions and hastened an evolution in the bait system that was already underway, as opposed to leading to system transformation. We suggest that further attention to raceways may be useful in understanding how and, in particular, why marine resource users and coastal communities adapt in particular ways in the face of shocks and crises.

Achieving Sustainability of the Seafood Sector in the European Atlantic Area by Addressing Eco-Social Challenges: The NEPTUNUS Project

Fisheries and aquaculture are becoming a focus of societal concern driven by globalization and increasing environmental degradation, mainly caused by climate change and marine litter. In response to this problem, the European Atlantic Area NEPTUNUS project aims to support and inform about the sustainability of the seafood sector, boosting the transition towards a circular economy through defining eco-innovation approaches and a steady methodology for eco-labelling products. This timely trans-regional European project proposes key corrective actions for positively influencing resource efficiency by addressing a life cycle thinking and involving all stakeholders in decision-making processes, harnessing the water-energy-seafood nexus. This paper presents inter-related objectives, methodologies and cues to action that will potentially meet these challenges that are aligned with many of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and European policy frameworks (e.g., Farm to Fork, European Green Deal).

Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a "foresighting/hindcasting" technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The "business-as-usual" future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:(i)proactive creation and enhancement of economic incentives for mitigation and adaptation;(ii)supporting the proliferation of local initiatives to spur a global transformation;(iii)enhancing proactive coastal adaptation management;(iv)investing in research to support adaptation to emerging risks;(v)deploying marine-based renewable energy;(vi)deploying marine-based negative emissions technologies;(vii)developing and assessing solar radiation management approaches; and(viii)deploying appropriate solar radiation management approaches to help safeguard critical ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09678-4.

Identification of Policies Based on Assessment-Optimization Model to Confront Vulnerable Resources System with Large Population Scale in a Big City

The conflict between excessive population development and vulnerable resource (including water, food, and energy resources) capacity influenced by multiple uncertainties can increase the difficulty of decision making in a big city with large population scale. In this study, an adaptive population and water–food–energy (WFE) management framework (APRF) incorporating vulnerability assessment, uncertainty analysis, and systemic optimization methods is developed for optimizing the relationship between population development and WFE management (P-WFE) under combined policies. In the APRF, the vulnerability of WFE was calculated by an entropy-based driver–pressure–state–response (E-DPSR) model to reflect the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability caused by population growth, economic development, and resource governance. Meanwhile, a scenario-based dynamic fuzzy model with Hurwicz criterion (SDFH) is proposed for not only optimizing the relationship of P-WFE with uncertain information expressed as possibility and probability distributions, but also reflecting the risk preference of policymakers with an elected manner. The developed APRF is applied to a real case study of Beijing city, which has characteristics of a large population scale and resource deficit. The results of WFE shortages and population adjustments were obtained to identify an optimized P-WEF plan under various policies, to support the adjustment of the current policy in Beijing city. Meanwhile, the results associated with resource vulnerability and benefit analysis were analyzed for improving the robustness of policy generation.

Warming world, changing ocean: mitigation and adaptation to support resilient marine systems

Proactive and coordinated action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will be essential for achieving the healthy, resilient, safe, sustainably harvested and biodiverse ocean that the UN Decade of Ocean Science and sustainable development goals (SDGs) seek. Ocean-based mitigation actions could contribute 12% of the emissions reductions required by 2030 to keep warming to less than 1.5 ºC but, because substantial warming is already locked in, extensive adaptation action is also needed. Here, as part of the Future Seas project, we use a "foresighting/hindcasting" technique to describe two scenarios for 2030 in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation for ocean systems. The "business-as-usual" future is expected if current trends continue, while an alternative future could be realised if society were to effectively use available data and knowledge to push as far as possible towards achieving the UN SDGs. We identify three drivers that differentiate between these alternative futures: (i) appetite for climate action, (ii) handling extreme events, and (iii) climate interventions. Actions that could navigate towards the optimistic, sustainable and technically achievable future include:(i)proactive creation and enhancement of economic incentives for mitigation and adaptation;(ii)supporting the proliferation of local initiatives to spur a global transformation;(iii)enhancing proactive coastal adaptation management;(iv)investing in research to support adaptation to emerging risks;(v)deploying marine-based renewable energy;(vi)deploying marine-based negative emissions technologies;(vii)developing and assessing solar radiation management approaches; and(viii)deploying appropriate solar radiation management approaches to help safeguard critical ecosystems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09678-4.

Assessing social-ecological vulnerability of coastal systems to fishing and tourism

Detecting areas with high social-ecological vulnerability (SEV) is essential to better inform management interventions for building resilience in coastal systems. The SEV framework, developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is a robust method to identify SEV of tropical coastal systems to climate change. Yet, the application of this framework to temperate regions and other drivers of change remains underexplored. This study operationalizes the SEV framework to assess the social-ecological implications of fishing and tourism in temperate coastal systems. We spatially represented the SEV of coastal systems and identified the social and ecological vulnerability dimensions underpinning this SEV. Our results demonstrate that different dimensions contribute differently to the SEV, suggesting the need for distinctive management intervention to reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems. Our findings also highlight that livelihood diversification and the protection of marine areas may be plausible strategies to build resilience in temperate coastal systems that face fishing and tourism pressures. With this study, we hope to encourage the application of the SEV framework to other drivers of change for building more resilient coastal systems.

Small & Medium-Sized Enterprises, Organizational Resilience Capacity and Flash Floods: Insights from a Literature Review

From a managerial standpoint, sustainability poses numerous challenges for the business community. One of the prominent concerns in the context of organizational sustainability is the impact of climate change and extreme weather events (EWEs), which create discontinuity and damages to business operations. In this respect, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable to EWEs, such as flash floods, having disastrous consequences to SMEs that tend to be ill-prepared. Taking into consideration that these negatives effects are also transferred into the local communities in which SMEs are located, it is crucial to create appropriate mechanisms that will enable these enterprises to build relevant capacities and acquire necessary resources in order to deal with relevant disruptive events. With this in mind, this paper attempts to delineate the emerging literature in relation to strategic approaches in dealing with high impact/low probability EWEs. With this analysis, we aim to provide insights for enhancing the robustness of SMEs against such natural hazards through effective resilience and adaptation strategies. The paper reveals that resilience to EWEs is indeed a multifaceted issue posing numerous challenges to SMEs. Taking into account their intrinsic characteristics, there is a need for a holistic management approach that will assist SMEs to safeguard their assets against extreme weather.

Rapid Resource Change and Visitor-Use Management: Social-ecological Connections at the Bonneville Salt Flats

Parks and protected areas are complex, and managers often need integrated social-ecological science-based information that illuminates the dynamic interactions between the biophysical and social processes. However, modeling and determining social-ecological connections are difficult due to disciplinary paradigms, divergent research questions, and data sets representing different scales. During this investigation, researchers sought to evaluate social-ecological linkages at a large salt pan (Bonneville Salt Flats) in western Utah (US). Specifically, the investigation evaluated how the changing level and location of salt-crust moisture and ponding water influenced visitors' spatial distribution of use and important elements of their experience. The findings indicate that visitors travel more distance, spend more time recreating, and use the Salt Flats in higher densities during dry conditions. However, the results also highlight that importance levels ascribed to specific aspects of the visitor experience remained relatively stable regardless of changes in salt-crust moisture and ponding water. Illuminating such linkages is important because most natural resource issues in society, including resources at the Bonneville Salt Flats, are not solely ecological or social in nature but characterized by deeper enmeshment between the two.

Place Attachment, Feeling of Belonging and Collective Identity in Socio-Ecological Systems: Study Case of Pegalajar (Andalusia-Spain)

Shared feelings of belonging and attachment held by people in relation to the place they live, and the development of collective identities that such feelings can promote, should be taken into account when seeking to understand the configuration and operation of socio-ecological systems (SES), in general, and the impact these factors have on SES adaptability, transformability and resilience, in particular. However, these topics have not been examined in enough depth in prior research. To address the effects of people’s feelings of place attachment and belonging in specific SES and the impacts they have on the aforementioned properties, in addition to theoretical instruments appropriate to the emotional and cognitive nature of this kind of phenomena, in-depth empirical qualitative studies are required to enhance understanding of the cultural and symbolic dimensions of the SES of which they are part. In this regard, the analysis of people–place connections, feelings of belonging and territorial identifications (territoriality) is strategic to understanding how the biophysical and the socio-cultural are interconnected and structured within SES. This article is based on a case study implemented through long-standing ethnographic research conducted in Pegalajar (Andalusia-Spain), which examined the struggle of the local population to recover the water system on which the landscape, as well as the ways of life that sustain their identity as a town, has been built. This case proposed a perspective on feelings and collective identifications as analytical interfaces between social and natural dimensions of SES in order to enhance understanding of their structuring and dynamics, particularly their resilience, and in order to manage them in a more sustainable way.

Operationalizing Vulnerability: Land System Dynamics in a Transfrontier Conservation Area

Understanding how individuals, communities, and populations vary in their vulnerability requires defining and identifying vulnerability with respect to a condition, and then developing robust methods to reliably measure vulnerability. In this study, we illustrate how a conceptual model translated via simulation can guide the real-world implementation of data collection and measurement of a model system. We present a generalizable statistical framework that specifies linkages among interacting social and biophysical components in complex landscapes to examine vulnerability. We use the simulated data to present a case study in which households are vulnerable to conditions of land function, which we define as the provision of goods and services from the surrounding environment. We use an example of a transboundary region of Southern Africa and apply a set of hypothesized, simulated data to illustrate how one might use the framework to assess vulnerability based on empirical data. We define vulnerability as the predisposition of being adversely affected by environmental variation and its impacts on land uses and their outcomes as exposure (E), mediated by sensitivity (S), and mitigated by adaptive capacity (AC). We argue that these are latent, or hidden, characteristics that can be measured through a set of observable indicators. Those indicators and the linkages between latent variables require model specification prior to data collection, critical for applying the type of modeling framework presented. We discuss the strength and directional pathways between land function and vulnerability components, and assess their implications for identifying potential leverage points within the system for the benefit of future policy and management decisions.

Climate change induced range shifts in seaweeds distributions in Europe

There are evidences of how climate change is affecting seaweeds distribution and the ecosystems services they provide. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these impacts when managing marine areas. One of the most applied tools in recent years to deal with this are species distribution models, however there are still some challenges to solve, such as the inclusion of hydrodynamic predictors and the application of effective, transferable and user-oriented methodologies. Five species (Saccorhiza polyschides, Gelidium spinosum, Sargassum muticum, Pelvetia canaliculata and Cystoseira baccata) in Europe and 15 variables were considered. Nine of them were projected to the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-term (2040-2069) and the long term (2070-2099). Algorithms for each species were applied to generate models that were assessed by comparison of probabilities and observations (area under the curve, true skill statistics, Boyce index, sensitivity, correct classification rate), niches overlap (Schoener's D, Hellinger's I), geographical similarity (interquartile range) and ecological realism. Models built demonstrated very good predictive accuracy and sensitivity, without overfitting risk. A medium overlap in the historical and RCPs environmental conditions were obtained, therefore the models can be considered transferable and results accurate because only some isolated points were detected as outliers, corresponding to low probabilities. The areas of S. polyschides and G. spinosum have been identified to be dramatically reduced, meanwhile S. muticum and C. baccata were predicted to expand their range. P. canaliculata was expected to keep its sites of presence but with a decrease in its probability of occurrence. For all species it was remarkable the importance of hydrodynamic variables and parameters representing extreme conditions. Spatially predictions of the potential species and areas at risk are decisive for defining management strategies and resource allocation. The performance and usefulness of the approach applied in this study have been demonstrated for algae with different ecological requirements (from upper littoral to subtidal) and distributional patterns (native and invasive), therefore results can be used by marine planners with different goals: marine protected areas designation, monitoring efforts guiding, invasions risk assessment or aquaculture facilities zonation.

The impact of acute thermal stress on the metabolome of the black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii)

Acute change in water temperature causes heavy economic losses in the aquaculture industry. The present study investigated the metabolic and molecular effects of acute thermal stress on black rockfish (Sebastes schlegelii). Gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC-TOF-MS)-based metabolomics was used to investigate the global metabolic response of black rockfish at a high water temperature (27°C), low water temperature (5°C) and normal water temperature (16°C). Metabolites involved in energy metabolism and basic amino acids were significantly increased upon acute exposure to 27°C (P < 0.05), and no change in metabolite levels occurred in the low water temperature group. However, certain fatty acid levels were elevated after cold stress (P < 0.05), and this effect was not observed in the 27°C group, suggesting that acute high and low temperature exposures caused different physiological responses. Using quantitative real-time PCR, we analyzed the expression of ubiquitin (ub), hypoxia-inducible factor (hif), lactate dehydrogenase (ldh), and acetyl-CoA carboxylase (acac). Higher expression levels of ub, hif, and ldh (P < 0.05) were observed in the high water temperature group, but no changes in these expression levels occurred in the low water temperature group. Our findings provide a potential metabolic profile for black rockfish when exposed to acute temperature stress and provide some insights into host metabolic and molecular responses to thermal stress.

Sovereign states in the Caribbean have lower social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching than overseas territories

Coral reef social-ecological systems worldwide face major impacts from climate change, and spatial variation in vulnerability is driven by differential exposure to climatic threats, ecological and socio-economic sensitivity to those threats, ecological recovery potential, and socio-economic adaptive capacity. We assess variation in social-ecological vulnerability to climate change-induced coral bleaching, specifically for reef-based fisheries and tourism, of islands throughout the insular Caribbean, thus providing the first region-wide quantitative analysis of island-scale social-ecological vulnerability to coral bleaching. We show that different components of vulnerability have distinct spatial patterns and that variability in overall vulnerability is driven more by socio-economic than ecological components. Importantly, we find that sovereign islands are less vulnerable on average than overseas territories and that the presence of fisheries management regulations is a significant predictor of adaptive capacity and socio-economic sensitivity, with important implications for island-level governance and policies to reduce climate vulnerability.

Understanding scuba divers' response to coral bleaching: An application of Protection Motivation Theory

Coral reefs are important to the dive experience, suggesting the expected increase in coral bleaching events has the potential to alter global flows of dive tourists. There are a growing number of studies that suggest taking people's estimation of their options and ability to react to a threat into account provides a clearer picture of the decision to respond to a threat. This study applied Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to help understand the motivational factors associated with intended adaptation to coral bleaching. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the effects of threat and coping appraisal variables. This study provided the first empirical evidence of scuba divers' response to marginal reef conditions, indicating that the majority of respondents would significantly alter their behavior in some way. PMT was able to explain between 12.8% and 47.7% of the variance in adaptation intentions, with response efficacy and self-efficacy consistently emerging as the strongest significant predictors. Consideration of multiple adaptation responses demonstrates the variability of model performance and highlights the need to consider the context of adaptation when interpreting results. Implications for future research and the dive tourism industry are discussed.

Mapping social-ecological vulnerability to inform local decision making

An overarching challenge of natural resource management and biodiversity conservation is that relationships between people and nature are difficult to integrate into tools that can effectively guide decision making. Social-ecological vulnerability offers a valuable framework for identifying and understanding important social-ecological linkages, and the implications of dependencies and other feedback loops in the system. Unfortunately, its implementation at local scales has hitherto been limited due at least in part to the lack of operational tools for spatial representation of social-ecological vulnerability. We developed a method to map social-ecological vulnerability based on information on human-nature dependencies and ecosystem services at local scales. We applied our method to the small-scale fishery of Moorea, French Polynesia, by combining spatially explicit indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of both the resource (i.e., vulnerability of reef fish assemblages to fishing) and resource users (i.e., vulnerability of fishing households to the loss of fishing opportunity). Our results revealed that both social and ecological vulnerabilities varied considerably through space and highlighted areas where sources of vulnerability were high for both social and ecological subsystems (i.e., social-ecological vulnerability hotspots) and thus of high priority for management intervention. Our approach can be used to inform decisions about where biodiversity conservation strategies are likely to be more effective and how social impacts from policy decisions can be minimized. It provides a new perspective on human-nature linkages that can help guide sustainability management at local scales; delivers insights distinct from those provided by emphasis on a single vulnerability component (e.g., exposure); and demonstrates the feasibility and value of operationalizing the social-ecological vulnerability framework for policy, planning, and participatory management decisions.

Scaling participation in payments for ecosystem services programs

Payments for ecosystem services programs have become common tools but most have failed to achieve wide-ranging conservation outcomes. The capacity for scale and impact increases when PES programs are designed through the lens of the potential participants, yet this has received little attention in research or practice. Our work with small-scale marine fisheries integrates the social science of PES programs and provides a framework for designing programs that focus a priori on scaling. In addition to payments, desirable non-monetary program attributes and ecological feedbacks attract a wider range of potential participants into PES programs, including those who have more negative attitudes and lower trust. Designing programs that draw individuals into participating in PES programs is likely the most strategic path to reaching scale. Research should engage in new models of participatory research to understand these dynamics and to design programs that explicitly integrate a broad range of needs, values, and modes of implementation.

Factors That Can Undermine the Psychological Benefits of Coastal Environments: Exploring the Effect of Tidal State, Presence, and Type of Litter

The beneficial effects of blue environments have been well documented; however, we do not know how marine litter might modify these effects. Three studies adopted a picture-rating task to examine the influence of litter on preference, perceived restorative quality, and psychological impacts. Photographs varied the presence of marine litter (Study 1) and the type of litter (Studies 2 and 3). The influence of tide and the role of connectedness were also explored. Using both quantitative and qualitative methods, it was shown that litter can undermine the psychological benefits that the coast ordinarily provides, thus demonstrating that, in addition to environmental costs of marine litter, there are also costs to people. Litter stemming from the public had the most negative impact. This research extends our understanding of the psychological benefits from natural coastal environments and the threats to these benefits from abundant and increasing marine litter.

Decadal-Scale Forecasting of Climate Drivers for Marine Applications

Climate influences marine ecosystems on a range of time scales, from weather-scale (days) through to climate-scale (hundreds of years). Understanding of interannual to decadal climate variability and impacts on marine industries has received less attention. Predictability up to 10 years ahead may come from large-scale climate modes in the ocean that can persist over these time scales. In Australia the key drivers of climate variability affecting the marine environment are the Southern Annular Mode, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, each has phases that are associated with different ocean circulation patterns and regional environmental variables. The roles of these drivers are illustrated with three case studies of extreme events-a marine heatwave in Western Australia, a coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and flooding in Queensland. Statistical and dynamical approaches are described to generate forecasts of climate drivers that can subsequently be translated to useful information for marine end users making decisions at these time scales. Considerable investment is still needed to support decadal forecasting including improvement of ocean-atmosphere models, enhancement of observing systems on all scales to support initiation of forecasting models, collection of important biological data, and integration of forecasts into decision support tools. Collaboration between forecast developers and marine resource sectors-fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, biodiversity management, infrastructure-is needed to support forecast-based tactical and strategic decisions that reduce environmental risk over annual to decadal time scales.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability.

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services.

Adaptation of Australia’s Marine Ecosystems to Climate Change: Using Science to Inform Conservation Management

The challenges that climate change poses for marine ecosystems are already manifesting in impacts at the species, population, and community levels in Australia, particularly in Tasmania and tropical northern Australia. Many species and habitats are already under threat as a result of human activities, and the additional pressure from climate change significantly increases the challenge for marine conservation and management. Climate change impacts are expected to magnify as sea surface temperatures, ocean chemistry, ocean circulation, sea level, rainfall, and storm patterns continue to change this century. In particular, keystone species that form the foundation of marine habitats, such as coral reefs, kelp beds, and temperate rocky reefs, are projected to pass thresholds with subsequent implications for communities and ecosystems. This review synthesises recent science in this field: the observed impacts and responses of marine ecosystems to climate change, ecological thresholds of change, and strategies for marine conservation to promote adaptation. Increasing observations of climate-related impacts on Australia’s marine ecosystems—both temperate and tropical—are making adaptive management more important than ever before. Our increased understanding of the impacts and responses of marine ecosystems to climate change provides a focus for “no-regrets” adaptations that can be implemented now and refined as knowledge improves.