Rebuild or Relocate? Resilience and Postdisaster Decision-Making After Hurricane Sandy

Social consequences of planned relocation in response to sea level rise: impacts on anxiety, well-being, and perceived safety

Governments globally are adapting to sea level rise through a range of interventions to improve everyday lives of communities at risk. One prominent response is planned relocation, where people and communities are enabled to move from localities exposed to coastal erosion and inundation as a result of sea level rise. Managed retreat has significant social consequences including under-reported impacts on health, well-being and social identity. Here we adopt well-established measures of well-being and document the outcomes of planned relocation on well-being in the Volta Delta region of Ghana. Data from a bespoke survey for individuals (n = 505) in relocated and non-relocated communities demonstrate that planned relocation negatively impacts well-being and anxiety of those relocated when compared to a community that is equally exposed but has not moved. Individuals in the relocated community reported significantly lower levels of overall wellbeing, significantly higher levels of anxiety, and lower perceptions of safety, compared to non-relocated community members. These outcomes are explained as being related to the disruption of community connection, identities, and feelings of efficacy. Relocated community members reported significantly lower levels of attachment to the local area and home, significantly lower levels of community-based self-efficacy, and significantly lower levels of overall community-based identity. The results demonstrate that planned relocation to address sea level rise has multiple social consequences with outcomes for well-being that are not straightforwardly related to risk reduction.

"Upheaval": Unpacking the dynamic balance between place attachment and social capital in disaster recovery

A growing body of literature demonstrates that both place attachment and social capital play considerable, and likely interdependent, roles in disaster recovery. This paper contributes to our understanding of these constructs by presenting findings from a longitudinal, mixed-methods study of communities impacted by a home buyout program implemented in New York after Hurricane Sandy (N = 111). Results suggest a dynamic balance between place dependence, place identity, and bonding social capital, in which the relative importance of each construct can shift over time, and where losses in one of these areas may lead to cascading losses in the other areas. For buyout participants, increases in place dependence were associated with increases in bonding social capital, indicating that relocatees either regained both place dependence and bonding social capital in their new homes and communities, or they lost and did not regain both, depending on whether their new home and community met their emotional and functional needs sufficiently. For residents who remained in place, higher levels of place dependence were associated with losses in bonding social capital, reflecting the potential consequences of living in postdisaster limbo. Implications for future buyout research, policy, and practice are discussed.

Public Attitudes Toward Policy Instruments for Flood Risk Management

Effective flood risk management (FRM) requires a mix of policy instruments that reduces, shares, and manages flood risk. The social acceptability of these policy instruments-the degree of public support or opposition to their use-is an important consideration when designing an optimal mix to achieve FRM objectives. This paper examines public attitudes toward FRM policy instruments based on a national survey of Canadians living in high-risk areas. Respondents were asked their views on flood maps, disaster assistance, flood insurance, flood risk disclosure and liability, and property buyouts. The results indicate that all five policy instruments have high social acceptability, but they must be calibrated to ensure access to flood risk information and achieve a fair distribution of FRM costs among key stakeholders.

The impact of the three-level collaboration exercise on collaboration and leadership during scenario-based hospital evacuation exercises using flexible surge capacity concept: a mixed method cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Hospitals play a crucial role in responding to disasters and public health emergencies. However, they are also vulnerable to threats such as fire or flooding and can fail to respond or evacuate adequately due to unpreparedness and lack of evacuation measures. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has emphasised the importance of partnerships and capacity building in disaster response. One effective way to improve and develop disaster response is through exercises that focus on collaboration and leadership. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of using the 3-level collaboration (3LC) exercise in developing collaboration and leadership in districts in Thailand, using the concept of flexible surge capacity (FSC) and its collaborative tool during a hospital evacuation simulation.

METHODS

A mixed-method cross-sectional study was conducted with 40 participants recruited from disaster-response organisations and communities. The data from several scenario-based simulations were collected according to the collaborative elements (Command and control, Safety, Communication, Assessment, Triage, Treatment, Transport), in the disaster response education, "Major Incident Medical Management and Support" using self-evaluation survey pre- and post-exercises, and direct observation.

RESULTS

The 3LC exercise effectively facilitated participants to gain a mutual understanding of collaboration, leadership, and individual and organisational flexibility. The exercise also identified gaps in communication and the utilisation of available resources. Additionally, the importance of early community engagement was highlighted to build up a flexible surge capacity during hospital evacuation preparedness.

CONCLUSIONS

the 3LC exercise is valuable for improving leadership skills and multiagency collaboration by incorporating the collaborative factors of Flexible Surge Capacity concept in hospital evacuation preparedness.

Multi-Hazard property buyouts: Making a case for the acquisition of flood and contaminant-prone residential properties in Galena Park, TX

The aftermath of extreme flood events can be particularly devastating for residential communities in proximity to flood-prone petrochemical facilities, as they are likely to experience multiple impacts from a single flood event. Hazard impacts could be from flood inundation to their properties, and floodwaters carrying contaminants from nearby facilities into their homes. While property acquisition or buyouts have been effectively used as a flood mitigation strategy, current buyout selection processes only factor in flood exposure, thereby ignoring other hazards such as exposure of properties to potential chemical substance transfer. In this paper, we identify properties that are eligible for flood buyouts but are also at a high risk of contaminant transferal during extreme flood events. We apply a benefit-cost analysis methodology to assess the economic viability of buyouts and proximity metrics to prioritize buyouts of contaminant-prone properties in Galena Park, Texas. Results indicate that, in selected flood-only property acquisition scenarios, cumulative avoided flood losses exceed the cost of property acquisition. However, although with lower cost-benefit values, a selection criterion that factors a combination of flood and contaminant-prone properties as buyouts results in multiple properties being removed from harm's way. Our findings emphasize the potential economic benefits of applying a multi-hazard selection criterion in dealing with flood property buyouts, especially in socially vulnerable communities with high exposure to both flooding and contaminant transfer.

Agriculture and downstream ecosystems in Florida: an analysis of media discourse

Environmental media discourse analysis allows researchers to explore thematic patterns in media coverage of environmental issues through qualitative observations and quantitative coding. In this paper, we review newspaper media coverage in Florida pertaining to the connections between agriculture, other non-point pollution sources, and downstream ecosystem health. We analyzed 930 articles from 2007 through 2019 to determine common patterns in how these issues are covered by Florida media, including patterns in the causes of environmental problems, potential solutions, and stakeholders mentioned. Findings suggest that water quality problems are often framed as unpredictable or episodic rather than chronic, and as requiring (and only potentially being remediated by) state-level centralized technological or infrastructural solutions. Stakeholder relationships are framed as adversarial, with environmentalists and the agricultural sector as opponents. This case study highlights key power dynamics, barriers, and opportunities for better managing and communicating about agricultural land use practices and associated downstream environmental impacts.

Uneven paths: Soft Policy's benefits to recovery in Louisiana Parishes after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Factors driving community recovery trajectories after disaster are not well understood. We assess why some communities show stronger recoveries from disaster than others, examining the role of four policy toolkits that U.S. county governments frequently adopt to recover from disaster. Using mixed methods, we examine the cases of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita with a novel dataset of recovery policies adopted within each Louisiana parish following the disasters. We typologize recovery strategies and analyze policy adoption patterns after crises. To compare which policy toolkit leads to the best recovery outcomes, we use synthetic control experiments on the 20 parishes hit by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita between August and September 2005, tracking net income inflow and net in-migration measures from 1997 to 2018 over 1408 parish-year observations, paired with qualitative case studies of parish policies and recovery outcomes. On average, soft and local recovery policies focused on community policies and feedback helped parishes stem the flow of finances away from the disaster-zone, as did infrastructural 'hard' policies, to a degree. in comparison, state policies focused on top-down planning experienced weaker recovery. Evidence shows that soft and local policy toolkits can accelerate recovery and that governments seeking to rebuild infrastructure should invest in locally-engaged community development in order to attain better overall recovery.

An Analysis of Resilience Planning at the Nexus of Food, Energy, Water, and Transportation in Coastal US Cities

Climate change poses increased risks to coastal communities and the interconnected infrastructure they rely on, including food, energy, water, and transportation (FEWT) systems. Most coastal communities in the US are ill-prepared to address these risks, and resilience planning is inconsistently prioritized and not federally mandated. This study examined the resilience plans of 11 coastal US cities to understand 1. How FEWT systems were considered within resilience plans and, 2. How nexus principles or elements critical to a nexus approach were incorporated within resilience plans. A “Nexus Index” was created to examine the incorporation of nexus principles, which included partnerships and collaborations, reference to other plans or reports, discussion of co-benefits, cascading impacts, and inclusion of interdisciplinary or cross-silo principles. These principles were used to score each action within the resilience plans. Results showed that only eight actions (1% of all actions across the 11 plans) focused on the connections among FEWT systems within the resilience plans. The transportation system was associated with the most actions, followed by the energy system, water system, and the food system. While FEWT systems were not consistently included, there was evidence from the Nexus Index that the plans included elements critical to a nexus approach, such as the inclusion of partnerships and reference to co-benefits with the actions they designed to build resilience. The heterogeneity among the systems that each plan emphasized reflects the heterogeneity among the challenges that each city faces. While context-specific differences in resilience plans across cities are expected, some consistency in addressing certain infrastructural needs and their nexus interactions may greatly benefit and improve the implementation of resilience planning.

Buy them out before they are built: evaluating the proactive acquisition of vacant land in flood-prone areas

Rising flood damages have prompted local communities to implement buyout and property acquisition programmes to eliminate repetitive losses for at-risk properties. However, buyouts are often costly to implement and are reactionary solutions to flooding. This study quantifies the benefits of acquiring vacant private properties in flood-prone areas rather than acquiring such properties after they are built up. Using a geodesign framework that integrates concepts and analytical approaches derived from geographical, spatial and statistical-based disciplines, we analyse vacant properties with high development potential that intersect current and future floodplain areas in Houston (TX, USA). We use geospatial proximity analysis to select candidate properties, land-use prediction modelling to estimate future development and sea-level rise and benefit-cost analysis to assess the economic viability of buyouts. The results indicate that cumulative avoided flood losses exceed the cost of vacant land acquisition by a factor of nearly two to one, and up to a factor of ten to one in selected areas. This study emphasizes the benefits of proactive property buyouts that focus on acquiring parcels before they are built up, while also avoiding the social and institutional problems associated with traditional buyout programmes.

Finding voices in the floods of Freedom Hill: innovating solutions in Princeville, North Carolina

Princeville, NC, is the oldest town chartered by Blacks in America. Founded as Freedom Hill in 1865 and incorporated as Princeville in 1885, the town continues to be predominantly African American today. Built on the unwanted and flood-prone lands adjacent to the Tar River, Princeville has flooded multiple times throughout its history, including after Hurricane Floyd in 1999 and Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Because of the town's historical significance, residents and town officials alike have been reluctant to accept offers for widespread buyouts from the government. Despite having limited financial resources and political clout, the town has developed a unique approach to managed retreat while rebuilding from Matthew-one that emphasizes the importance of historical sites while also recognizing the need to relocate residents out of harm's way from future floods. This manuscript uses a historical and narrative approach to examine how Princeville's unique history, and the relationship between the town and the Tar River, play important roles in the town's decisions regarding retreat and redevelopment in the aftermath of major flooding events. We highlight the voices of current residents, including leaders, as well as the structural and cultural conditions that both constrain and enable the town's collective agency. While focused on the present day, this case study is historically informed, using oral histories and archival documents.

A comparative analysis of hazard-prone housing acquisition programs in US and New Zealand communities

This article describes the preliminary results of an international comparative assessment of hazard-prone housing acquisition programs (buyouts) undertaken in six US and New Zealand communities. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with government officials and consultants tasked with administering buyout programs following flood, debris flow, and earthquake-based disasters. Key issues analyzed include local capacity, public participation, planning and design, program complexity, funding and financial management, and lesson drawing. The findings are timely given the rise in disaster-related losses, buyouts are increasingly cited as a strategy to reduce natural hazard risk and advance climate change adaptation, and national buyout programs are evolving in both countries to tackle the challenges associated with this complex process.

Communicating Managed Retreat in California

California cities face growing threats from sea-level rise as increased frequency and severity of flooding and storms cause devastating erosion, infrastructure damage, and loss of property. Management plans are often designed to prevent or slow flooding with short-term, defensive strategies such as shoreline hardening, beach nourishment, and living shorelines. By contrast, managed retreat focuses on avoiding hazards and adapting to changing shorelines by relocating out of harm’s way. However, the term “managed retreat” can be controversial and has engendered heated debates, defensive protests, and steady resistance in some communities. Such responses have stymied inclusion of managed retreat in adaptation plans, and in some cases has resulted in complete abandonment of the policy review process. We examined the Local Coastal Program review process in seven California communities at imminent risk of sea-level rise and categorized each case as receptive or resistant to managed retreat. Three prominent themes distinguished the two groups: (1) inclusivity, timing, and consistency of communication, (2) property ownership, and (3) stakeholder reluctance to change. We examined use of terminology and communication strategies and provided recommendations to communicate “managed retreat” more effectively.

When rebuilding no longer means recovery: the stress of staying put after Hurricane Sandy

After a disaster, it is common to equate repopulation and rebuilding with recovery. Numerous studies link post-disaster relocation to adverse social, economic, and health outcomes. However, there is a need to reconsider these relationships in light of accelerating climate change and associated social and policy shifts in the USA, including the rising cost of flood insurance, the challenge of obtaining aid to rebuild, and growing interest in "managed retreat" from places at greatest risk. This article presents data from a survey of individuals who opted either to rebuild in place or relocate with the help of a voluntary home buyout after Hurricane Sandy. Findings show those who lived in buyout-eligible areas and relocated were significantly less likely to report worsened stress than those who rebuilt in place. This suggests access to a government-supported voluntary relocation option may, under certain circumstances, lessen the negative mental health consequences associated with disaster-related housing damage.

Livelihood resilience and strategies of rural residents of earthquake-threatened areas in Sichuan Province, China

Natural disasters are increasing in frequency in China. Enhancing residents' livelihood resilience and adjusting their livelihood strategies have gradually become effective means of dealing with disaster risk. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the livelihood strategies and livelihood resilience of rural residents in earthquake-stricken areas to help them cope with disaster risks. However, few studies have explored the correlation between residents' livelihood resilience and livelihood strategies from the perspective of residents' livelihood resilience. Based on a survey of 327 households in four districts and counties of Sichuan Province, China that were affected by the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes, we construct a framework for analyzing livelihood resilience and livelihood strategy selection. We comprehensively analyze the characteristics of livelihood resilience and livelihood strategy and explore their correlation using an ordinal multi-classification logistic regression model. The results show that: (1) Among 327 sample households, 90.21% were non-farming, 3.67% were part-time households and 6.12% were farming households. Residents' livelihood resilience is mainly based on their disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. (2) As far as the correlation between livelihood resilience and livelihood strategies is concerned, the stronger the buffer capacity in livelihood resilience, the more rural residents tend to engage in non-farming activities to obtain income. When other conditions remain unchanged, the logarithmic probability of choosing an agricultural livelihood strategy decreases by 21.814 for each unit of buffer capacity. From the perspective of residents' livelihood resilience, this study deepens our understanding of the relationship between livelihood resilience and livelihood strategy in earthquake-stricken areas. It also provides useful information for the formulation of policies to improve residents' resilience in disaster-threatened areas.

Adjustments of Socially Vulnerable Populations in Galveston County, Texas USA Following Hurricane Ike

The role of socio-demographic vulnerability to hazards is an increasingly important aspect for consideration in disaster mitigation and adaptation. This paper examines the spatial adjustments of populations to the 2008 Hurricane Ike by estimating the effects of damage on the changes of socially vulnerable populations pre- and post-Hurricane Ike. Multivariate regression models are used to understand household-level adjustments in different flood zones and inundation levels at the block-group level in Galveston county. In contrast to past literature that suggests that vulnerable populations remain or move into hazardous areas post-disaster, our results indicate that socially vulnerable populations have moved out of highly damaged areas. The tremendous investment opportunity post-disaster and the slow distribution of funds to recover public housing on Galveston Island provide potential explanation of the estimated adjustment patterns. Analyzing post disaster adjustments offers important insights into the “resilient” recovery of Galveston County post-Hurricane Ike. Our results also point to potential vulnerabilities that may arise in the future because of the change in community identity and the loss of social memory. Understanding disaster-driven changes in community make-up will help inform potential recovery trajectories from future catastrophes.

Effects of climate change on the movement of future landfalling Texas tropical cyclones

The movement of tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly around the time of landfall, can substantially affect the resulting damage. Recently, trends in TC translation speed and the likelihood of stalled TCs such as Harvey have received significant attention, but findings have remained inconclusive. Here, we examine how the June-September steering wind and translation speed of landfalling Texas TCs change in the future under anthropogenic climate change. Using several large-ensemble/multi-model datasets, we find pronounced regional variations in the meridional steering wind response over North America, but―consistently across models―stronger June-September-averaged northward steering winds over Texas. A cluster analysis of daily wind patterns shows more frequent circulation regimes that steer landfalling TCs northward in the future. Downscaling experiments show a 10-percentage-point shift from the slow-moving to the fast-moving end of the translation-speed distribution in the future. Together, these analyses indicate increases in the likelihood of faster-moving landfalling Texas TCs in the late 21^st century.

How climate change affects the translation speed of tropical cyclones has been the subject of intensive debate. Here, the authors use models to show that future regional changes in the steering winds lead to faster-moving tropical cyclones as they make landfall in Texas.

Successful Small-Scale Household Relocation after a Millennial Flood Event in Simbach, Germany 2016

International and national laws promote stakeholder collaboration and the inclusion of the community in flood risk management (FRM). Currently, relocation as a mitigation strategy against river floods in Central Europe is rarely applied. FRM needs sufficient preparation and engagement for successful implementation of household relocation. This case study deals with the extreme flood event in June 2016 at the Simbach torrent in Bavaria (Germany). The focus lies on the planning process of structural flood defense measures and the small-scale relocation of 11 households. The adaptive planning process started right after the damaging event and was executed in collaboration with authorities and stakeholders of various levels and disciplines while at the same time including the local citizens. Residents were informed early, and personal communication, as well as trust in actors, enhanced the acceptance of decisions. Although technical knowledge was shared and concerns discussed, resident participation in the planning process was restricted. However, the given pre-conditions were found beneficial. In addition, a compensation payment contributed to a successful process. Thus, the study illustrates a positive image of the implementation of the alleviation scheme. Furthermore, preliminary planning activities and precautionary behavior (e.g., natural hazard insurance) were noted as significant factors to enable effective integrated flood risk management (IFRM).

Managed retreat through voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties

Retreat from some areas will become unavoidable under intensifying climate change. Existing deployments of managed retreat are at small scale compared to potential future needs, leaving open questions about where, when, and how retreat under climate change will occur. Here, we analyze more than 40,000 voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties in the United States, in which homeowners sell properties to the government and the land is restored to open space. In contrast to model-based evaluation of potential future retreat, local governments in counties with higher population and income are more likely to administer buyouts. The bought-out properties themselves, however, are concentrated in areas of greater social vulnerability within these counties, pointing to the importance of assessing the equity of buyout implementation and outcomes. These patterns demonstrate the challenges associated with locally driven implementation of managed retreat and the potential benefits of experimentation with different approaches to retreat.

Individual relocation decisions after tornadoes: a multi-level analysis

This study examines how multi-level factors affected individuals' relocation decisions after EF4 and EF5 (Enhanced Fujita Tornado Intensity Scale) tornadoes struck the United States in 2013. A telephone survey was conducted with 536 respondents, including oversampled older adults, one year after these two disaster events. Respondents' addresses were used to associate individual information with block group-level variables recorded by the American Community Survey. Logistic regression revealed that residential damage and homeownership are important predictors of relocation. There was also significant interaction between these two variables, indicating less difference between homeowners and renters at higher damage levels. Homeownership diminished the likelihood of relocation among younger respondents. Random effects logistic regression found that the percentage of homeownership and of higher income households in the community buffered the effect of damage on relocation; the percentage of older adults reduced the likelihood of this group relocating. The findings are assessed from the standpoint of age difference, policy implications, and social capital and vulnerability.