Predicting Mortality and Adverse Outcomes: Comparing the Frailty Index to General Prognostic Indices

Endothelial Dysfunction as a Key Link between Cardiovascular Disease and Frailty: A Systematic Review

Background: Frailty is increasingly recognized as a significant health concern, particularly due to its association with cardiovascular pathologies. This study aims to examine how vascular endothelial dysfunction, a known premorbid stage in the pathophysiology of cardiovascular diseases, contributes to the link between cardiovascular illness and frailty. Methods: The inclusion criteria allowed us to focus on original clinical research articles published in English between January 2014 and January 2024, which reported quantitative assessments of the relationship between frailty and vascular endothelial dysfunction. Excluded from the study were systematic literature reviews, meta-analyses, editorials, conference articles, theses, methodological articles, and studies using animal or cell culture models. Searches were conducted of electronic databases, including Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Medline, up to 22 January 2024. The risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute's critical appraisal tools. The methods used to present and synthesize the results involved data extraction and categorization based on biomolecular and clinical findings of endothelial dysfunction. Results: Following the application of the inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 29 studies were identified. Vascular endothelial dysfunction was associated with increased frailty phenotypes, and we also identified SGLT-2 inhibitors' potential role as an anti-fragility treatment that affects endothelial dysfunction. This study found that the physical and biomolecular markers of endothelial dysfunction are associated with frailty measures and have predictive value for incident frailty. Furthermore, some studies have shown inflammation to have an impact on endothelial dysfunction and frailty, and an innovative age-related chronic inflammation measure has been proven to predict frailty scores. Conclusions: The current evidence suggests an association between endothelial dysfunction and frailty, highlighting the need for further research to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Levels of frailty and frailty progression in older urban- and regional-living First Nations Australians

OBJECTIVES

To explore the prevalence of frailty, association between frailty and mortality, and transitions between frailty states in urban- and regional-living First Nations Australians.

STUDY DESIGN

Secondary analysis of longitudinal data from the Koori Growing Old Well Study. First Nations Australians aged 60 years or more from five non-remote communities were recruited in 2010-2012 and followed up six years later (2016-2018). Data collected at both visits were used to derive a 38-item Frailty Index (FI). The FI (range 0-1.0) was classified as robust (<0.1), pre-frail (0.1- < 0.2), mildly (0.2- < 0.3), moderately (0.3- < 0.4) or severely frail (≥0.4).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Association between frailty and mortality, examined using logistic regression and transitions in frailty (the percentage of participants who changed frailty category) during follow-up.

RESULTS

At baseline, 313 of 336 participants (93 %) had sufficient data to calculate a FI. Median FI score was 0.26 (interquartile range 0.21-0.39); 4.79 % were robust, 20.1 % pre-frail, 31.6 % mildly frail, 23.0 % moderately frail and 20.5 % severely frail. Higher baseline frailty was associated with mortality among severely frail participants (adjusted odds ratio 7.11, 95 % confidence interval 2.51-20.09) but not moderately or mildly frail participants. Of the 153 participants with a FI at both baseline and follow-up, their median FI score increased from 0.26 to 0.28.

CONCLUSIONS

Levels of frailty in this First Nations cohort are substantially higher than in similar-aged non-Indigenous populations. Screening for frailty before the age of 70 years may be warranted in First Nations Australians. Further research is urgently needed to determine the factors that are driving such high levels of frailty and propose solutions to prevent or manage frailty in this population.

Mobility Device Use and Frailty Progression in Community-Dwelling Older Adults With Mobility Limitations

Objective: Examine the association between mobility device use and changes in a frailty index (FI) over one year in community-dwelling older adults with mobility limitations. Methods: Analyses utilized 2015-2016 data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study community-dwelling older adults (n = 3934). We calculated a validated 40-item deficit accumulation frailty index (FI) in 2015 and 2016 and compared one year change in FI in older adults with/without canes or walkers using multivariable logistic regression. Analyses were repeated with stratification by baseline frailty. Results: Device use was not associated with worsening frailty in the overall cohort, but was associated with worsening frailty in non-frail individuals when stratified by baseline frailty. Discussion: Device use does not worsen frailty in individuals who are frail at baseline. Device users who were not frail at baseline experienced worsening frailty suggesting additional contributing factors to their frailty aside from mobility limitations.

TAVR in Older Adults: Moving Toward a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment and Away From Chronological Age: JACC Family Series

Calcific aortic stenosis can be considered a model for geriatric cardiovascular conditions due to a confluence of factors. The remarkable technological development of transcatheter aortic valve replacement was studied initially on older adult populations with prohibitive or high-risk for surgical valve replacement. Through these trials, the cardiovascular community has recognized that stratification of these chronologically older adults can be improved incrementally by invoking the concept of frailty and other geriatric risks. Given the complexity of the aging process, stratification by chronological age should only be the initial step but is no longer sufficient to optimally quantify cardiovascular and noncardiovascular risk. In this review, we employ a geriatric cardiology lens to focus on the diagnosis and the comprehensive management of aortic stenosis in older adults to enhance shared decision-making with patients and their families and optimize patient-centered outcomes. Finally, we highlight knowledge gaps that are critical for future areas of study.

Association of preoperative frailty with the risk of postoperative delirium in older patients undergoing hip fracture surgery: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the correlation between preoperative frailty and the risk of postoperative delirium (POD) in older patients undergoing hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

In total, 148 patients with hip fractures who were admitted to Tsinghua Changgung Hospital (Beijing, China) between January 2022 and January 2023 were involved in this study. Preoperative frailty scales were assessed, of which the CAM scale was postoperatively administered every morning and evening on days 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7. Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the correlation between preoperative frailty and the risk of POD.

RESULTS

Among 148 older patients with hip fractures, 71 (48.0%) were identified as preoperative frail and 77 (52.0%) as non-frail. The overall incidence of POD on day 7 was 24.3% (36/148), and preoperative frailty was associated with a significantly higher risk of POD compared with non-frailty (42.3% vs. 7.8%, P < 0.001). The binary logistic regression analysis revealed that preoperative frailty was noted as an independent risk factor for the risk of POD in older patients undergoing hip fracture surgery (P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative frailty increased the risk of POD in older patients undergoing hip fracture surgery.

DISCUSSION

Preoperative assessment of frailty in geriatric hip surgery can timely identify potential risks and provide interventions targeting frailty factors to reduce the incidence of POD in older patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. The findings suggested that preoperative frailty could increase the risk of POD in older patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. Further research is necessary to determine whether perioperative interventions aimed at enhancing frailty can mitigate the risk of POD and improve prognosis in older patients undergoing hip fracture surgery.

Predicting functional dependency using machine learning among a middle-aged and older Chinese population

OBJECTIVE

To develop prediction models for assessing functional dependency in a middle-aged and older Chinese population.

METHOD

Adults ≥45 years old from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and without functional dependency at baseline were included. Functional dependency was defined as needing any help in any basic activities of daily living (ADL) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). The outcomes were overall functional dependency, ADL and IADL dependency. Stacked ensemble models were constructed based on five selected machine learning models. Models were trained and tested in the 2011-2015 cohort, and were externally validated in the 2015-2018 cohort. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was utilized to quantify the significance of predictors.

RESULT

In the training cohort, a total of 6,297 participants were included at baseline, 1,893 developed functional dependency during the follow-up period. The stacked ensemble model achieved the best performance in terms of discrimination ability for predicting overall functional dependency, ADL and IADL dependency, with AUCs of 0.750, 0.690 and 0.748, respectively; in external validation cohort, the corresponding AUCs were 0.725, 0.719 and 0.727, respectively. A compact model was further developed and maintained similar predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

The stacked ensemble approach can serve as a useful tool for identifying the risk of functional dependency in a large Chinese population. For ADL dependency, arthritis, age, self-report health, and waist circumference were identified as highly significant predictors. Conversely, cognitive function, age, living in rural areas, and performance in chair stand test emerged as highly ranked predictors for IADL dependency.

Frailty and Environmental Attributes in Older Adults: Insight from an Ecological Model

Many studies on frailty have primarily focused on individual-level risk factors such as demographics and lifestyle. While guidelines for frailty management recommend modifications to an individual's lifestyle, their lifestyle behaviors are significantly influenced by their surroundings. Recently, the association between frailty and environmental attributes has drawn attention as a result of the increase in evidence that multiple factors affect health conditions and behaviors associated with frailty. These findings can be organized based on an ecological model involving five nested levels that influence an individual's behaviors, namely, an intrapersonal/individual core (age, education, and attitude), an interpersonal level (persons and groups), an organizational/institutional level (organization and workplace), a community level (natural, built, and social environments), and a system/public policy level (public policies from local to national). This study reviewed possible factors associated with frailty from the onset and its progression at each level of the ecological model and their implications regarding frailty prevention. Additionally, we introduce a policy-level approach for frailty prevention in Japan-which encourages residents to engage in the local society by participating in community places or groups that are referred to as "Kayoi-no-ba"-and aggregate its status from a government report. This perspective on community building is consistent with the concept of an ecological model. However, few studies have verified the effects of policy- or system-level approaches on disability and frailty prevention. Further studies from an ecological perspective are needed to fulfill multilevel interventions for frailty prevention.

Comparative Cardiovascular Effectiveness and Safety of SGLT-2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and DPP-4 Inhibitors According to Frailty in Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the comparative cardiovascular effectiveness and safety of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4is) in older adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) across different frailty strata.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We performed three 1:1 propensity score-matched cohort studies, each stratified by three frailty strata, using data from Medicare beneficiaries (2013-2019) with T2D who initiated SGLT-2is, GLP-1RAs, or DPP-4is. In time-to-event analyses, we assessed the primary cardiovascular effectiveness composite outcome of acute myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. The primary safety outcome was a composite of severe adverse events that have been linked to SGLT-2i or GLP-1RA use.

RESULTS

Compared with DPP-4is, the overall hazard ratio (HR) for the primary effectiveness outcome associated with SGLT-2is (n = 120,202 matched pairs) was 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75), corresponding to an incidence rate difference (IRD) of -13.35 (95% CI -15.06 to -11.64). IRD ranged from -6.74 (95% CI -8.61 to -4.87) in nonfrail to -27.24 (95% CI -41.64 to -12.84) in frail people (P for interaction < 0.01). Consistent benefits were observed for GLP-1RAs compared with DPP-4is (n = 113,864), with an overall HR of 0.74 (95% CI 0.71-0.77) and an IRD of -15.49 (95% CI -17.46 to -13.52). IRD in the lowest frailty stratum was -7.02 (95% CI -9.23 to -4.81) and -25.88 (95% CI -38.30 to -13.46) in the highest (P for interaction < 0.01). Results for SGLT-2is versus GLP-1RAs (n = 89,865) were comparable. Severe adverse events were not more frequent with SGLT-2is or GLP-1RAs than DPP-4is.

CONCLUSIONS

SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs safely improved cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality, with the largest absolute benefits among frail people.

Frailty, Home Time, and Health Care Costs in Older Adults With Atrial Fibrillation Receiving Oral Anticoagulants

Importance

There are no data on patient-centered outcomes and health care costs by frailty in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) taking oral anticoagulants (OACs).

Objective

To compare home time, clinical events, and health care costs associated with OACs by frailty levels in older adults with AF.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This community-based cohort study assessed Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries 65 years or older with AF from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2019. Data analysis was performed from January to December 2022.

Exposures

Apixaban, rivaroxaban, and warfarin use were measured from prescription claims. Frailty was measured using a validated claims-based frailty index.

Main outcomes and measures

Outcome measures were (1) home time (days alive out of the hospital and skilled nursing facility) loss greater than 14 days; (2) a composite end point of ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, major bleeding, or death; and (3) total cost per member per year after propensity score overlap weighting.

Results

The weighted population comprised 136 551 beneficiaries, including 45 950 taking apixaban (mean [SD] age, 77.6 [7.3] years; 51.3% female), 45 320 taking rivaroxaban (mean [SD] age, 77.6 [7.3] years; 51.9% female), and 45 281 taking warfarin (mean [SD] age, 77.6 [7.3] years; 52.0% female). Compared with apixaban, rivaroxaban was associated with increased risk of home time lost greater than 14 days (risk difference per 100 persons, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.5-2.1]), composite end point (rate difference per 1000 person-years, 21.3 [95% CI, 16.4-26.2]), and total cost (mean difference, $890 [95% CI, $652-$1127]), with greater differences among the beneficiaries with frailty. Use of warfarin relative to apixaban was associated with increased home time lost (risk difference per 100 persons, 3.2 [95% CI, 2.9-3.5]) and composite end point (rate difference per 1000 person-years, 29.4 [95% CI, 24.5-34.3]), with greater differences among the beneficiaries with frailty. Compared with apixaban, warfarin was associated with lower total cost (mean difference, -$1166 [95% CI, -$1396 to -$937]) but higher cost when excluding OAC cost (mean difference, $1409 [95% CI, $1177 to $1642]) regardless of frailty levels.

Conclusions and Relevance

In older adults with AF, apixaban was associated with increased home time and lower rates of clinical events than rivaroxaban and warfarin, especially for those with frailty. Apixaban was associated with lower total cost compared with rivaroxaban but higher cost compared with warfarin due to higher OAC cost. These findings suggest that apixaban may be preferred for older adults with AF, particularly those with frailty.

Frailty Among Sexual and Gender Minority Older Adults: The All of Us Database

BACKGROUND

Despite known disparities in health status among older sexual and gender minority adults (OSGM), the prevalence of frailty is unknown. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a deficit-accumulation frailty index (AoU-FI) for the All of Us database to describe and compare frailty between OSGM and non-OSGM participants.

METHODS

Developed using a standardized approach, the AoU-FI consists of 33 deficits from baseline survey responses of adults aged 50+. OSGM were self-reported as "not straight" or as having discordant gender and sex assigned at birth. Descriptive statistics characterized the AoU-FI. Regression was used to assess the association between frailty, age, and gender. Validation of the AoU-FI used Cox proportional hazard models to test the association between frailty categories (robust <0.15, 0.15 ≤ pre-frail ≤ 0.25, frail >0.25) and mortality.

RESULTS

There were 9 110 OSGM and 67 420 non-OSGM with sufficient data to calculate AoU-FI; 41% OSGM versus 50% non-OSGM were robust, whereas 34% versus 32% were pre-frail, and 26% versus 19% were frail. Mean AoU-FI was 0.19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.187, 0.191) for OSGM and 0.168 (95% CI: 0.167, 0.169) for non-OSGM. Compared to robust, odds of mortality were higher among frail OSGM (odds ratio [OR] 6.40; 95% CI: 1.84, 22.23) and non-OSGM (OR 3.96; 95% CI: 2.96, 5.29).

CONCLUSIONS

The AoU-FI identified a higher burden of frailty, increased risk of mortality, and an attenuated impact of age on frailty among OSGM compared to non-OSGM. Future work is needed to understand how frailty affects the OSGM population.

The sublingual microcirculation and frailty index in chronic kidney disease patients

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relationship between sublingual microcirculatory measures and frailty index in those attending a kidney transplant assessment clinic.

METHODS

Patients recruited had their sublingual microcirculation taken using sidestream dark field videomicroscopy (MicroScan, Micro Vision Medical, Amsterdam, the Netherlands) and their frailty index score using a validated short form via interview.

RESULTS

A total of 44 patients were recruited with two being excluded due to microcirculatory image quality scores exceeding 10. The frailty index score indicated significant correlations with total vessel density (p < .0001, r = -.56), microvascular flow index (p = .004, r = -.43), portion of perfused vessels (p = .0004, r = -.52), heterogeneity index (p = .015, r = .32), and perfused vessel density (p < .0001, r = -.66). No correlation was shown between the frailty index and age (p = .08, r = .27).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a relationship between the frailty index and microcirculatory health in those attending a kidney transplant assessment clinic, that is not confounded by age. These findings suggest that the impaired microcirculation may be an underlying cause of frailty.

Association between community-level health literacy and frailty in community-dwelling older adults

AIMS

We aimed to investigate whether high community-level health literacy, beyond individual-level health literacy, is associated with a low prevalence of frailty among community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

A large cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted among citizens in Maizuru City, Kyoto, Japan, aged 65 years or older who were not certified as "support" or "care" level according to Japan's public long-term care insurance system, who could perform basic activities of daily living, and who did not have dementia or Parkinson's disease. Frailty status was assessed using the Kihon Checklist, with a score ≥ 8 indicating frailty. Health literacy was assessed using the Communicative and Critical Health Literacy Scale. The mean health literacy score of 20 school districts was used as the community-level health literacy index. We investigated demographic data and other potential confounding factors, including education, living arrangement, body mass index, comorbidity, smoking status, depressive symptoms, social networks, and community-level covariates.

RESULTS

The primary analysis included 6230 individuals (mean age = 74.3 years [SD = 6.1]). In each school district, the prevalence of frailty was 21.2-34.2% (mean: 26.2%), and community-level health literacy index was 3.1-3.5 (mean: 3.4). Multilevel logistic regression model including school district as random effect showed that the community-level health literacy was significantly associated with frailty (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 0.28 [0.08 to 0.96]) after adjusting for the covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Not only high individual-level health literacy but also high community-level health literacy is associated with a low prevalence of frailty in community-dwelling older adults.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Oral Anticoagulants by Dementia Status in Older Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Importance

The development of an optimal stroke prevention strategy, including the use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy, is particularly important for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are living with dementia, a condition that increases the risk of adverse outcomes. However, data on the role of dementia in the safety and effectiveness of OACs are limited.

Objective

To assess the comparative safety and effectiveness of specific OACs by dementia status among older patients with AF.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective comparative effectiveness study used 1:1 propensity score matching among 1 160 462 patients 65 years or older with AF. Data were obtained from the Optum Clinformatics Data Mart (January 1, 2013, to June 30, 2021), IBM MarketScan Research Database (January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020), and Medicare claims databases maintained by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (inpatient, outpatient, and pharmacy; January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017). Data analysis was performed from September 1, 2021, to May 24, 2022.

Exposures

Apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or warfarin.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Composite end point of ischemic stroke or major bleeding events over the 6-month period after OAC initiation, pooled across databases using random-effects meta-analyses.

Results

Among 1 160 462 patients with AF, the mean (SD) age was 77.4 (7.2) years; 50.2% were male, 80.5% were White, and 7.9% had dementia. Three comparative new-user cohorts were established: warfarin vs apixaban (501 990 patients; mean [SD] age, 78.1 [7.4] years; 50.2% female), dabigatran vs apixaban (126 718 patients; mean [SD] age, 76.5 [7.1] years; 52.0% male), and rivaroxaban vs apixaban (531 754 patients; mean [SD] age, 76.9 [7.2] years; 50.2% male). Among patients with dementia, compared with apixaban users, a higher rate of the composite end point was observed in warfarin users (95.7 events per 1000 person-years [PYs] vs 64.2 events per 1000 PYs; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7), dabigatran users (84.5 events per 1000 PYs vs 54.9 events per 1000 PYs; aHR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-2.0), and rivaroxaban users (87.4 events per 1000 PYs vs 68.5 events per 1000 PYs; aHR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5). In all 3 comparisons, the magnitude of the benefits associated with apixaban was similar regardless of dementia diagnosis on the HR scale but differed substantially on the rate difference (RD) scale. The adjusted RD of the composite outcome per 1000 PYs for warfarin vs apixaban users was 29.8 (95% CI, 18.4-41.1) events in patients with dementia vs 16.0 (95% CI, 13.6-18.4) events in patients without dementia. The corresponding adjusted RD estimates of the composite outcome were 29.6 (95% CI, 11.6-47.6) events per 1000 PYs in patients with dementia vs 5.8 (95% CI, 1.1-10.4) events per 1000 PYs in patients without dementia for dabigatran vs apixaban users and 20.5 (95% CI, 9.9-31.1) events per 1000 PYs in patients with dementia vs 15.9 (95% CI, 11.4-20.3) events per 1000 PYs in patients without dementia for rivaroxaban vs apixaban users. The pattern was more distinct for major bleeding than for ischemic stroke.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this comparative effectiveness study, apixaban was associated with lower rates of major bleeding and ischemic stroke compared with other OACs. The increased absolute risks associated with other OACs compared with apixaban were greater among patients with dementia than those without dementia, particularly for major bleeding. These findings support the use of apixaban for anticoagulation therapy in patients living with dementia who have AF.

Intercontinental validation of a clinical prediction model for predicting 90-day and 2-year mortality in an Israeli cohort of 2033 patients with a femoral neck fracture aged 65 or above

PURPOSE

Mortality prediction in elderly femoral neck fracture patients is valuable in treatment decision-making. A previously developed and internally validated clinical prediction model shows promise in identifying patients at risk of 90-day and 2-year mortality. Validation in an independent cohort is required to assess the generalizability; especially in geographically distinct regions. Therefore we questioned, is the SORG Orthopaedic Research Group (SORG) femoral neck fracture mortality algorithm externally valid in an Israeli cohort to predict 90-day and 2-year mortality?

METHODS

We previously developed a prediction model in 2022 for estimating the risk of mortality in femoral neck fracture patients using a multicenter institutional cohort of 2,478 patients from the USA. The model included the following input variables that are available on clinical admission: age, male gender, creatinine level, absolute neutrophil, hemoglobin level, international normalized ratio (INR), congestive heart failure (CHF), displaced fracture, hemiplegia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), history of cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and beta-blocker use. To assess the generalizability, we used an intercontinental institutional cohort from the Sheba Medical Center in Israel (level I trauma center), queried between June 2008 and February 2022. Generalizability of the model was assessed using discrimination, calibration, Brier score, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

The validation cohort included 2,033 patients, aged 65 years or above, that underwent femoral neck fracture surgery. Most patients were female 64.8% (n = 1317), the median age was 81 years (interquartile range = 75-86), and 80.4% (n = 1635) patients sustained a displaced fracture (Garden III/IV). The 90-day mortality was 9.4% (n = 190) and 2-year mortality was 30.0% (n = 610). Despite numerous baseline differences, the model performed acceptably to the validation cohort on discrimination (c-statistic 0.67 for 90-day, 0.67 for 2-year), calibration, Brier score, and decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The previously developed SORG femoral neck fracture mortality algorithm demonstrated good performance in an independent intercontinental population. Current iteration should not be relied on for patient care, though suggesting potential utility in assessing patients at low risk for 90-day or 2-year mortality. Further studies should evaluate this tool in a prospective setting and evaluate its feasibility and efficacy in clinical practice. The algorithm can be freely accessed: https://sorg-apps.shinyapps.io/hipfracturemortality/ .

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, Prognostic study.

Progression of frailty as measured by a cumulative deficit index: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a risk factor for adverse health outcomes. There is a paucity of literature on frailty progression defined by a cumulative deficit model among community dwelling older people. The objective of this review was to synthesise evidence on these changes in health and mortality among community-dwelling older people.

METHODS

Six databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane, PsycInfo, Web of Science) and a clinical trials registry were searched in July 2021. The inclusion criteria were studies using a frailty index and providing information on transition between frailty states or to death in community-dwelling older people aged ≥ 50. Exclusion criteria were studies examining specific health conditions, conference abstracts and non-English studies. To standardise the follow-up period and facilitate comparison, we converted the transition probabilities to annual transition rates.

RESULTS

Two reviewers independently screened 5078 studies and 61 studies were included for analysis. Of these, only three used the same frailty state cut-points to facilitate cross-cohort comparison. This review found that frailty tends to increase with time, people who are frail at baseline have greater likelihood to progress in frailty and die, and the main factor that accelerates frailty progression is age. Other risk factors for progression are having chronic disease, smoking, obesity, low-income or/and low-education levels. A frailty index is an accurate predictor of adverse outcomes and death.

DISCUSSION

This systematic review demonstrated that worsening in frailty was a common frailty transition, and older people who are frail at baseline are more likely to die. A frailty index has significant power to predict adverse health outcomes. It is a useful tool for within-cohort comparison but there are challenges comparing different cohorts due to dependence of frailty progression on age and differences in how frailty index is defined and measured.

Categorizing Comorbid Risk for People Living With HIV: A Latent Profile Analysis

BACKGROUND

Categorizing clinical risk amidst heterogeneous multimorbidity in older people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH) may help prioritize and optimize health care engagements.

METHODS

PLWH and their prevalent conditions in 8 health domains diagnosed before January 1, 2015 were identified using 2014-2016 Medicare claims and the Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse. Latent profile analysis identified 4 distinct clinical subgroups based on the likelihood of conditions occurring together [G1: healthy, G2: substance use (SU), G3: pulmonary (PULM), G4: cardiovascular conditions (CV)]. Restricted mean survival time regression estimated the association of each subgroup with the 365 day mean event-free days until death, first hospitalization, and nursing home admission. Zero-inflated Poisson regression estimated hospitalization frequency in 2-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 11,196 older PLWH, 71% were male, and the average age was 61 (SD 9.2) years. Compared with healthy group, SU group had a mean of 30 [95% confidence interval: (19.0 to 40.5)], PULM group had a mean of 28 (22.1 to 34.5), and CV group had a mean of 22 (15.0 to 22.0) fewer hospitalization-free days over 1 year. Compared with healthy group (2.8 deaths/100 person-years), CV group (8.4) had a mean of 4 (3.8 to 6.8) and PULM group (7.9) had a mean of 3 (0.7 to 5.5) fewer days alive; SU group (6.0) was not different. There was no difference in restricted mean survival time for nursing home admission. Compared with healthy group, SU group had 1.42-fold [95% confidence interval: (1.32 to 1.54)], PULM group had 1.71-fold (1.61 to 1.81), and CV group had 1.28-fold (1.20 to 1.37) higher rates of hospitalization.

CONCLUSION

Identifying clinically distinct subgroups with latent profile analysis may be useful to identify targets for interventions and health care optimization in older PLWH.

Heath status, frailty, and multimorbidity in patients with emergency general surgery conditions

BACKGROUND

Although nearly 1 million older adults are admitted for emergency general surgery conditions yearly, the extent to which baseline health influences the development and treatment of emergency general surgery conditions is unknown. We evaluated baseline health and older patients with and without emergency general surgery conditions.

METHODS

We used the prospectively collected Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey with Medicare claims and 2 validated health frameworks: (1) Deficit Accumulation Frailty Score and (2) Complex Multimorbidity. Self-reported health and function items were used to derive pre-emergency general surgery conditions Deficit Accumulation Frailty Score and Complex Multimorbidity scores. Deficit Accumulation Frailty Score ranges from 0 (no frailty deficits) to 100 (all possible deficits present). Complex Multimorbidity is a 3-point categorical rank based on the presence of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and geriatric syndromes. Specific survey factors were also examined to determine association with development of emergency general surgery conditions or use of operative management.

RESULTS

Of 54,417 individuals, 1,960 had emergency general surgery conditions (median age 79 [interquartile range 73-84]). Patients with emergency general surgery conditions had significantly higher Deficit Accumulation Frailty Score (19 [interquartile range 11-31] vs 14 [8-24]) and were more likely to be in the most severe Complex Multimorbidity category (38% vs 29%). Emergency general surgery conditions patients had higher proportions of nearly every health category, with the most striking differences in functional limitations. Patients who were treated nonoperatively had the poorest overall baseline health.

CONCLUSION

Patients who developed emergency general surgery conditions had more severe health burden than patients who did not, particularly in functional status. Clinicians must better understand the interaction between baseline health vulnerability and emergency surgical disease to improve prognostication and ensure alignment of patient goals and treatment strategies.

Hospitalized Women’s Perspective on Willingness-to-Screen for Cancers in Relation to Life Expectancy

Objective: Life expectancy is an important tool for physicians and patients to determine when medical services for disease prevention should be rendered. Since patients’ preference is an important predictor for cancer screening compliance, incorporating life expectancy with cancer screening preferences becomes essential. The purpose of the study is to explore the mean life expectancy duration that hospitalized women expect in order to undergo cancer screening tests.

Methods: A cross-sectional bedside survey including the contingent valuation method was used to assess the mean life expectancy among 475 cancer-free hospitalized women aged 50-75 years, which justified their willingness to undergo cancer screening tests. The probit and logistic regression models were used for the analysis in October 2021.

Results: A total of 74% of women were willing to undergo cancer screening if the mean life expectancy was 24.3 months (SE = 12.8, p = 0.058). After adjustment for sociodemographic and clinical covariates, hospitalized women were willing to undergo cancer screening if the mean life expectancy was 26.6 months (SE = 13.3, p = 0.045). Race (African American and others vs Caucasians, OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.43-3.81) and annual household income <$20,000 (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.02-2.86) were associated with the willingness to undergo cancer screening among hospitalized women.

Conclusion: The study’s findings suggest that hospitalized women value the prospect of cancer screening tests, given the mean life expectancy of approximately 27 months. Therefore, offering screening tests to nonadherent hospitalized women with a mean life expectancy of 2¼ years, especially to those at high risk for developing cancer, with low income, or women of color, may improve adherence to cancer screening recommendations.

Functional status recovery trajectories in hospitalised older adults with pneumonia

Background and objectives

Pneumonia is associated with significant mortality and morbidity in older adults. We investigated changes in functional status over 6 months after pneumonia hospitalisation by frailty status.

Methods and measurements

This single-centre prospective cohort study enrolled 201 patients (mean age 79.4, 37.3% women) who were hospitalised with pneumonia. A deficit-accumulation frailty index (range: 0–1; robust <0.15, pre-frail 0.15–0.24, mild-to-moderately frail 0.25–0.44, severely frail ≥0.45) was calculated on admission. Functional status, defined as self-reported ability to perform 21 activities and physical tasks independently, was measured by telephone at 1, 3 and 6 months after discharge. Group-based trajectory model was used to identify functional trajectories. We examined the probability of each trajectory based on frailty levels.

Results

On admission, 51 (25.4%) were robust, 43 (21.4%) pre-frail, 40 (20.0%) mild-to-moderately frail and 67 (33.3%) severely frail patients. Four trajectories were identified: excellent (14.4%), good (25.4%), poor (28.9%) and very poor (31.3%). The trajectory was more strongly correlated with frailty level on admission than pneumonia severity. The most common trajectory was excellent trajectory (59.9%) in robust patients, good trajectory (74.4%) in pre-frail patients, poor trajectory (85.0%) in mild-to-moderately frail patients and very poor trajectory (89.6%) in severely frail patients. The risk of poor or very poor trajectory from robust to severely frail patients was 11.8%, 25.6%, 92.5% and 100%, respectively.

Conclusions

Frailty was a strong determinant of lack of functional recovery over 6 months after pneumonia hospitalisation in older adults. Our results call for hospital-based and post-acute care interventions for frail patients.

Feasibility of Measuring Frailty and Patient-Reported Outcomes During and After Post-Acute Skilled Nursing Facility Rehabilitation

Functional status and quality of life are not routinely assessed after skilled nursing facility (SNF) discharge. We determined feasibility of measuring frailty among adults ≥65 years admitted to SNF after hospitalization, and post-discharge outcomes. We calculated a frailty index (non-frail [≤0.25], mild frailty [0.26-0.35], moderate [0.36-0.45], and severe [>0.45]). After SNF discharge, we conducted serial telephone interviews measuring ability to perform functional activities and Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System (PROMIS) scores. Overall of 68 screened patients, 42 were eligible, and 24 (57.1%) eligible patients were enrolled. Of these, 5 (20.8%) were admitted after elective hospitalizations, 17 (70.8%) were female, and 11 (45.8%) had moderate-to-severe frailty. Frailty was measured in all participants in a mean 32.1 minutes. At 90 days, a total of three participants died, and two were lost to follow-up. Post-discharge functional status varied by frailty, with moderate-to-severe frailty having persistent impairment and lower PROMIS scores (worse quality of life) compared to those with no or mild frailty (38.2 [13.7] vs. 47.3 [8.1] p = .04). Measuring frailty and quality of life in older patients admitted to SNF is feasible. Furthermore, measuring frailty may help identify those at particularly high risk of poor recovery and lower quality of life after discharge.

Assessment of frailty in elderly patients attending a multidisciplinary wound care centre: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of frailty and non-healing wounds increases with patients' age. Knowledge of the relationship between frailty and wound healing progress is greatly lacking.

METHODS

The aim of this study is to characterize the degree of frailty in elderly patients attending a multidisciplinary wound care centres (MWCC). Additionally, we seek to assess the impact of frailty on the wound healing rate and wound healing time. An open cohort study was conducted on 51 consecutive patients aged > 70 years treated for wounds at an MWCC of an intermediate care hospital. The frailty score was determined according to the Frail-VIG index. Data were collected through patient questionnaires at the beginning of the study, and at 6 months or upon wound healing. Wounds were followed up every 2 weeks. To analyse the relationship between two variables was used the Chi-square test and Student's or the ANOVA model. The t-test for paired data was used to analyse the evolution of the frailty index during follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 51 consecutive patients were included (aged 81.1 ± 6.1 years). Frailty prevalence was 74.5% according to the Frail-VIG index (47.1% mildly frail, 19.6% moderately frail, and 7.8% severely frail). Wounds healed in 69.6% of cases at 6 months. The frailty index (FI) was higher in patients with non-healing wounds in comparison with patients with healing wounds (IF 0.31 ± 0.15 vs IF 0.24 ± 0.11, p = 0.043). A strong correlation between FI and wound healing results was observed in patients with non-venous ulcers (FI 0.37 ± 0.13 vs FI 0.27 ± 0.10, p = 0.015). However, no correlation was observed in patients with venous ulcers (FI 0.17 ± 0.09 vs FI 0.19 ± 0.09, p = 0.637). Wound healing rate is statically significantly higher in non-frail patients (8.9% wound reduction/day, P25-P75 3.34-18.3%/day;AQ6 p = 0.044) in comparison with frail patients (3.26% wound reduction/day, P25-P75 0.8-8.8%/day).

CONCLUSION

Frailty is prevalent in elderly patients treated at an MWCC. Frailty degree is correlated with wound healing results and wound healing time.

Frailty and Differences in Self-Reported Sexual Functioning Among Older Females and Males in National Social life, Health and Aging Project

OBJECTIVE

To understand the association of frailty with females' and males' self-reported sexual functioning.

METHODS

Logistic regression on 5 domains of sexual function by frailty status (robust, pre-frail, frail) were analyzed from 2058 respondents to National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project (2010-2011).

RESULTS

Females had similar frailty profiles to males, but more often reported low overall sexual functioning (12.9% v. 4.0%). Compared to robust, pre-frail and frail males had higher odds of sexual function-related: anxiety (pre-frail OR 1.91 95% CI [1.33, 2.74]; frail OR 2.13 95% CI [1.03, 4.41]), negative changes (pre-frail: OR 1.40, 95% CI [1.00, 1.96]; frail: OR 2.42, 95% CI [1.51, 3.89]), and erectile dysfunction (pre-frail: OR 1.81, 95% CI [1.23,2.68]; frail: 2.00, 95% CI [1.00,4.02]); frail females had 1.69 times higher odds (95% CI [1.16,2.48]) of negative changes.

DISCUSSION

Frailty may be a clinical indicator of sexual functioning decline for males more than females.

Frailty and Clinical Outcomes of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Versus Warfarin in Older Adults With Atrial Fibrillation : A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The role of differing levels of frailty in the choice of oral anticoagulants for older adults with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the outcomes of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus warfarin by frailty levels.

DESIGN

1:1 propensity score-matched analysis of Medicare data, 2010 to 2017.

SETTING

Community.

PATIENTS

Medicare beneficiaries with AF who initiated use of dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, or warfarin.

MEASUREMENTS

Composite end point of death, ischemic stroke, or major bleeding by frailty levels, defined by a claims-based frailty index.

RESULTS

In the dabigatran-warfarin cohort (n = 158 730; median follow-up, 72 days), the event rate per 1000 person-years was 63.5 for dabigatran initiators and 65.6 for warfarin initiators (hazard ratio [HR], 0.98 [95% CI, 0.92 to 1.05]; rate difference [RD], -2.2 [CI, -6.5 to 2.1]). For nonfrail, prefrail, and frail persons, HRs were 0.81 (CI, 0.68 to 0.97), 0.98 (CI, 0.90 to 1.08), and 1.09 (CI, 0.96 to 1.23), respectively. In the rivaroxaban-warfarin cohort (n = 275 944; median follow-up, 82 days), the event rate per 1000 person-years was 77.8 for rivaroxaban initiators and 83.7 for warfarin initiators (HR, 0.98 [CI, 0.94 to 1.02]; RD, -5.9 [CI, -9.4 to -2.4]). For nonfrail, prefrail, and frail persons, HRs were 0.88 (CI, 0.77 to 0.99), 1.04 (CI, 0.98 to 1.10), and 0.96 (CI, 0.89 to 1.04), respectively. In the apixaban-warfarin cohort (n = 218 738; median follow-up, 84 days), the event rate per 1000 person-years was 60.1 for apixaban initiators and 92.3 for warfarin initiators (HR, 0.68 [CI, 0.65 to 0.72]; RD, -32.2 [CI, -36.1 to -28.3]). For nonfrail, prefrail, and frail persons, HRs were 0.61 (CI, 0.52 to 0.71), 0.66 (CI, 0.61 to 0.70), and 0.73 (CI, 0.67 to 0.80), respectively.

LIMITATIONS

Residual confounding and lack of clinical frailty assessment.

CONCLUSION

For older adults with AF, apixaban was associated with lower rates of adverse events across all frailty levels. Dabigatran and rivaroxaban were associated with lower event rates only among nonfrail patients.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Aging.

The degree of frailty as a translational measure of health in aging

Frailty is a multiply determined, age-related state of increased risk for adverse health outcomes. We review how the degree of frailty conditions the development of late-life diseases and modifies their expression. The risks for frailty range from subcellular damage to social determinants. These risks are often synergistic-circumstances that favor damage also make repair less likely. We explore how age-related damage and decline in repair result in cellular and molecular deficits that scale up to tissue, organ and system levels, where they are jointly expressed as frailty. The degree of frailty can help to explain the distinction between carrying damage and expressing its usual clinical manifestations. Studying people-and animals-who live with frailty, including them in clinical trials and measuring the impact of the degree of frailty are ways to better understand the diseases of old age and to establish best practices for the care of older adults.

A web-based dynamic Nomogram for predicting instrumental activities of daily living disability in older adults: a nationally representative survey in China

Background

Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) disability is a common health burden in aging populations. The identification of high-risk individuals is essential for timely targeted interventions. Although predictors for IADL disability have been well described, studies constructing prediction tools for IADL disability among older adults were not adequately explored. Our study aims to develop and validate a web-based dynamic nomogram for individualized IADL disability prediction in older adults.

Methods

Data were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). We included 4791 respondents aged 60 years and over, without IADL disability at baseline in the 2011 to 2013 cohort (training cohort) and 371 respondents in the 2013 to 2015 cohort (validation cohort). Here, we defined IADL disability as needing any help in any items of the Lawton and Brody’s scale. A web-based dynamic nomogram was built based on a logistic regression model in the training cohort. We validated the nomogram internally with 1000 bootstrap resamples and externally in the validation cohort. The discrimination and calibration ability of the nomogram was assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots, respectively.

Results

The nomogram incorporated ten predictors, including age, education level, social activity frequency, drinking frequency, smoking frequency, comorbidity condition, self-report health condition, gait speed, cognitive function, and depressive symptoms. The C-index values in the training and validation cohort were 0.715 (bootstrap-corrected C-index = 0.702) and 0.737, respectively. The internal and external calibration plots for predictions of IADL disability were in excellent agreement. An online web server was built (https://lilizhang.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/) to facilitate the use of the nomogram.

Conclusions

We developed a dynamic nomogram to evaluate the risk of IADL disability precisely and expediently. The application of this nomogram would be helpful for health care physicians in decision-making.

Changes in a Frailty Index and Association with Mortality

BACKGROUND

Although frailty status is dynamic, whether improvements in frailty predict mortality is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

Describe 1-year changes in a frailty index (FI) and association with 48-month mortality.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of the National Health in Aging Trends Study.

SETTING

Community.

PARTICIPANTS

Five thousand six hundred and seventy two Medicare beneficiaries 65 and older (3,267 (55.8%) females).

MEASUREMENTS

A 40-item deficit accumulation FI was measured in 2011 and 2012, based on multidomain assessment including comorbidities, activities of daily living, physical tasks, cognition, and performance testing. We categorized 2011 FI into robust (FI < 0.15), pre-frail (FI = 0.15-0.24), mild frailty (FI = 0.25-0.34), and moderate to severe frailty (FI ≥ 0.35). Change in frailty was calculated as the FI change from 2011 to 2012, categorized as either absolute (>0.045 decrease, 0.015-0.045 decrease, ±0.015 change, 0.015-0.045 increase, >0.045 increase) or proportional change (>20% decrease, 5-20% decrease, ±5% change, 5-20% increase, 20% increase). We measured the association of FI change with 4-year mortality using Cox regression.

RESULTS

From 2011 to 2012, mean FI increased by 0.02 (standard deviation 0.07), with 58.6% having an increase. Over 4 years, 1,039 participants (13.6%) died. After adjusting for age and sex, compared to stable frailty (±0.015), both absolute (>0.045) and proportional (>20%) increases in frailty were associated with higher mortality among pre-frail participants (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) = (1.45-3.79) and HR (95% CI) = 3.32 (1.76-6.26), respectively), participants with mild frailty (HR (95% CI) = 1.96 (1.35-2.85) and 2.03 (1.37-3.02)) and moderate or severe frailty (HR (95% CI) = 1.99 (1.48-2.67) and 1.94 (1.43-2.63)) but not robust participants (HR (95% CI)= 1.48 (0.86-2.54), HR (95% CI) = 1.62 (0.80-3.28)). However, decreases in FI were not significantly associated with decreased risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing deficit accumulation FI over 1 year is associated with increased mortality risk. While decreasing FI occurs, we did not find evidence to support reduced mortality risk.

Beyond the Health Deficit Count: Examining Deficit Patterns in a Deficit-Accumulation Frailty Index

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Exploring deficit patterns among frail people may reveal subgroups of different prognostic importance.

DESIGN

Analysis of National Health and Aging Trends Study.

SETTING

Community.

PARTICIPANTS

Community dwelling older adults with mild to moderate frailty (deficit-accumulation frailty index (FI) of 0.25-0.40) (n = 1821).

MEASUREMENTS

Latent class analysis identified distinct clinical subgroups based on comorbidity (range: 0-10), National Health and Aging Trends Study dementia classification, and short physical performance battery (SPPB) (range: 0-12). Survival analyses compared 5-year mortality by subgroups.

RESULTS

Three latent classes existed: Class 1 (n = 831, mean FI = 0.30) had 2.7% probable dementia, high comorbidities (mean = 3.6), and low physical impairment (SPPB mean = 9.9); Class 2 (n = 734, mean FI = 0.32) had 6.9% probable dementia, low comorbidities (mean = 2.8), and moderate physical impairment (SPPB mean = 6.2); Class 3 (n = 256, mean FI = 0.34) had 20.7% probable dementia, low comorbidities (mean = 2.4), and high physical impairment (SPPB mean = 2.0). Compared to Class 1, Classes 2 and 3 experienced higher 5-year mortality (C2: 1.28 (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.00-1.62); C3: 1.87 (95% CI = 1.29-2.73)).

CONCLUSION

Deficit patterns among the mild-to-moderately frail provide additional prognostic information and highlight opportunities for preventive interventions.

Changes in Predictive Performance of a Frailty Index with Availability of Clinical Domains

OBJECTIVES

Determine the effects of missing data in frailty identification and risk prediction.

DESIGN

Analysis of the National Health in Aging Trends Study.

SETTING

Community.

PARTICIPANTS

About 6206 older adults.

MEASUREMENTS

A 41-variable frailty index (FI) was constructed with the following domains: comorbidities, activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental activities of daily living, self-reported physical limitations, physical performance, and neuropsychiatric tests. We evaluated discrimination after removing single and multiple domains, comparing C-statistics for predicting 5-year risk of mortality and 1-year risks of disability and falls.

RESULTS

The full FI yielded a mean of .18 and C-statistics of .72 (95% confidence interval, .70-.74) for mortality, .80 (.77-.82) for disability, and .66 (.64-.68) for falls. Removal of any single domain shifted the FI distribution, resulting in a mean FI ranging from .13 (removing comorbidities) to .20 (removing ADLs) and frailty prevalence (FI ≥ .25) from 16.0% to 28.7%. Among robust participants models missing ADLs misclassified most often, (19% as pre-frail). Among pre-frail and frail participants missing comorbidities misclassified most often(69.2% from pre-frail to robust, 24% from frail to pre-frail, and 4.9% from frail to robust). Removal of any single domain minimally changed C-statistics: mortality, .71-.73; disability, .79-.80; and falls, .64-.66. Removing neuropsychiatric testing and physical performance yielded comparable C-statistics of .70, .78, and .66 for mortality, ADLs, and falls, respectively. However, removal of three or four domains based on likely availability decreased C-statistics for mortality (.69, .66),disability (.75, .70), and falls (.64, .63), respectively.

CONCLUSION

While FI discrimination is robust to missing information in any single domain, risk prediction is affected by absence of multiple domains. This work informs the application of FI as a clinical and research tool. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1771-1777, 2020.