The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis

Impact of COVID-19 on pets and pet owners: A survey conducted in selected veterinary clinics in Accra, Ghana

The study explores the impact of Covid-19 on pets and their owners using a structured questionnaire. One hundred fifty-seven (157) respondents were recruited from six veterinary clinics at strategic points within Accra. Only a third of owners gave their pet(s) special attention out of fear of contracting Covid-19 from their pet(s). 68.2 % of the respondents were interested in learning healthy pet-keeping tips from the electronic media and evident in their willingness (75.2 %) to embrace tele-veterinary services; a potential drift from traditional in-person way of providing veterinary services in Ghana. The decrease in household income (46.5 %), loss of employment for at least one person in the household (17.2 %) and associated spike in prices of pet related commodities affected the feeding of pets in about 44 % of respondents and ability to afford veterinary pet products (17.2 %). This is reflected in a 12.7 % reduction in the ability of pet owners to afford veterinary services. The observations made could be used as a basis for future research exploring the pet culture in Ghana and its evolution as a direct consequence of the pandemic.

A systematic review of the factors associated with the psychological wellbeing of people with Parkinson's in the COVID-19 pandemic

PURPOSE

The lockdown and social distancing measures introduced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the ability of people with Parkinson's to engage in normal health management practices. This led to documented reductions in psychological wellbeing. The aim of the present review was to identify factors associated with the psychological wellbeing of people with Parkinson's during the acute stage of the pandemic.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Five academic databases (PsycINFO, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science) were searched and 23 articles were identified using pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The findings are stratified by risk factor and analysed using a narrative synthesis.

RESULTS

Worsening of motor symptoms, poor motor-related daily living experiences and motor symptoms during "off time" (when symptom suppressing medication has worn off) as well as less physical activity emerged as the most consistent risk factors of worsened or poorer psychological wellbeing. A deviation from pre-pandemic risk factors was identified, with age and gender not identified as consistent risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The implications of this review are not limited to preparing for future pandemics but can also be applied to more common concerns with comparable contextual characteristics such as yearly flu outbreaks, social isolation, and economic uncertainty.

Navigating the waves: A systematic review of telemedicine interventions and health service access challenges in epilepsy during COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically reshaped the landscape of healthcare delivery, prompting a surge in the adoption of telemedicine as a means to ensure continuity of care. During the pandemic, patients with epilepsy experienced difficulties accessing healthcare and obtaining necessary medications, with a substantial percentage facing obstacles in acquiring anti-seizure medication and reaching healthcare professionals. Disruptions in the supply and distribution of medication, due to COVID-19-related actions, further caused more problems for people with epilepsy and their caregivers like increasing seizure frequency. The pandemic has also accelerated the adoption of telemedicine, with evidence suggesting its potential benefits in various medical fields. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to investigate the challenges faced by patients with epilepsy during the COVID-19 pandemic, including healthcare access and medication acquisition, as well as evaluate changes in seizure frequency. Additionally, we will synthesize existing evidence on the use of telemedicine to address the healthcare needs of these patients, exploring its advantages and limitations.

METHODS

This systematic review was prepared using PRISMA reporting guidelines. The databases searched were PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane. Risk of Bias was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI). Following rigorous application of eligibility criteria, relevant data, covering both telemedicine-related and health service access information, were methodically extracted and organized using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. The analytical procedures were executed through the utilization of Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software.

RESULTS

A total of 70 articles included in this review. Regarding difficulties in accessing healthcare, 34% of PWE and 41% of caregivers experienced cancelled, changed or postponed appointments. Following issues with obtaining medicine, 13% of patients and 16% of caregivers had difficulties in medicine availability and 11% of patients and 10% of caregivers in medicine accessibility. A very high rate of 90% satisfaction with telemedicine was reported by PWE. 17.6% of PWE experienced an escalation, 9% a decrease and 67% no changes in seizure frequency.

CONCLUSION

This review and meta-analysis revealed that telemedicine and virtual communications have been helpful but not sufficient for meeting healthcare needs for PWE during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, there was a significant increase in seizure frequency among PWE who had difficulty obtaining medicine and access to healthcare.

Unravelling habituation for COVID-19-related information: A panel data study in Japan

This study examines people's habituation to COVID-19-related information over almost three years. Using publicly available data from 47 Japanese prefectures, I analyse how human mobility responded to COVID-19-related information, such as the number of COVID-19-infected cases, the declaration of a state of emergency (DSE), and several doses of vaccine using an interactive effects model, which is a type of panel data regression. The results show that Japanese citizens were generally fearful and cautious during the first wave of the unknown infection. As such, a 1% week-on-week increase in the number of infected cases results in a decrease in human mobility by 1.09-percentage-point (pp) week-on-week. However, they gradually became habituated to similar infection information during the subsequent waves, which is reflected in 0.71 pp and 0.29 pp decreases in human mobility in the second and third waves. Nevertheless, the level of habituation decreased in response to the different types of the infection, such as new variants in the fourth wave, with 0.50 pp decrease. By contrast, regarding the DSE, it is more plausible to consider that human mobility responds to varying requests rather than habituate them. Whereas a rapid vaccination program could alleviate people's concerns. I also find spatial spillovers of infection information on human mobility using a spatial weight matrix included in the regression model. However, there is no evidence of DSE or vaccination spatial spillovers, likely because both are valid only in one's own prefecture. The implementation of flexible human mobility control policies by closely monitoring human mobility can prevent excessive or insufficient mobility control requests. Such a flexible policy can efficiently suppress infection spread and prevent economic activity reduction more than necessary. These implications are useful for evidence-based policymaking during future pandemics.

Resilience during lockdown: a longitudinal study investigating changes in behaviour and attitudes among older females during COVID-19 lockdown in the UK

In order to slow the spread of COVID-19, on March 23, 2020, a strict lockdown was implemented in the UK. This was followed by alternating periods of less restrictive lockdowns until most public health restrictions were lifted in the summer of 2021. While these measures were necessary, they significantly affected people's daily activities, lifestyles, and mental well-being.This paper presents a longitudinal research study that focused on females aged 55 + in the UK, aiming to understand how COVID-19 and the subsequent 15-month period of lockdowns affected their lifestyles and emotions. The study collected data through online surveys, where respondents reported the frequency and mode of access to activities, and their positive and negative emotional experiences during distinct study phases that encompassed both lockdown and less strict periods.In contrast to previous studies highlighting vulnerabilities for females and the elderly during lockdowns, this research found that the studied group maintained an overall positive outlook throughout the study period and successfully adapted to the lockdowns by increasing their engagement in certain activities, in particular, activities like 'getting active'. In addition, our findings indicate rapid adaptive behaviour change towards many online activities, such as cultural activities. However, the study also revealed negative emotions and a decrease in some activities during the second lockdown in 2020 and the subsequent lockdowns in 2021, underscoring the challenges inherent in prolonged periods of confinement. In addition, the study found negative affect associated with some activities, including working and studying from home.The findings provide valuable insights into how females aged over 55 coped with stressful circumstances, which can inform the development of resilient and mental health-conscious public health policies and responses in preparation for future pandemics or other hazards.

Lifestyles and Academic Stress in University Students of Health Sciences: A Mixed-Methodology Study

The global health emergency generated by the COVID-19 pandemic (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) led to the implementation of extraordinary measures such as confinement and isolation in many countries to mitigate the spread of the virus. (1) This study analyzes the lifestyles and academic and perceived stresses of university students of health sciences during the period of online learning due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The relationship between lifestyles and academic stress was examined. (2) A parallel mixed-method convergent study was conducted, with a correlational non-experimental design. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected and analyzed in parallel, with parametric and nonparametric testing for quantitative data and Miles and Huberman's approach to qualitative analysis. The qualitative findings complemented the quantitative results. The number of students who participated in this study was 2734, from six programs in health, nursing, medicine, clinical laboratory, physiotherapy, dentistry, and clinical psychology at the University of Chimborazo, Ecuador. (3) Overall, the health science students had "Unhealthy or health-compromising lifestyles", medical students being the ones who have healthier lifestyles. However, more than 80% experienced and perceived stress during the period of online learning and social isolation due to the pandemic, women being the ones who experienced it at a higher level. (4) The online learning modality during the COVID-19 pandemic modified lifestyles and generated stress in health science students, due to changes in daily routines, sedentary lifestyle, and stress, as a result of social isolation. Therefore, the students prefer face-to-face teaching, perceived as enabling more enriching interactions with their teachers and peers and the opportunity to develop essential practical skills in their health practice.

Trends in the Stage Distribution of Colorectal Cancer During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan: A Nationwide Hospital-claims Data Analysis

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected cancer care. The aim of this study was to clarify the trend of colorectal cancer (CRC) stage distribution in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we used an inpatient medical claims database established at approximately 400 acute care hospitals. From the database, we searched patients who were identified as having the main disease (using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision codes [C18.0-C20]) between January 2018 and December 2020. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the impact of the pandemic on CRC stage distribution each month, and the odds ratio (OR) for late-stage cancer was calculated.

RESULTS

We analyzed 99,992 CRC patients. Logistic regression analysis, including the interaction term between increased late-stage CRC effect during the pandemic period and by each individual month, showed that the OR for late-stage CRC was highest in July during the pandemic, at 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.52) and also significantly higher in September at 1.16 (95% CI, 1.00-1.35).

CONCLUSION

We investigated the trend of CRC stage distribution during the COVID-19 pandemic using a nationwide hospital-claims database in Japan and found that the proportion of early-stage cancers tended to decrease temporarily after the state of emergency declaration due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the effect was only temporary.

Temporal Variations in Convergence Insufficiency Symptomatic Status among University Students before and after COVID-19: A Longitudinal Analysis from 2018 to 2023

The present study aimed to assess the symptomatic status of Convergence Insufficiency (CI) in university students from 2018 to 2023 considering the educational environment pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic confinements. A Convergence Insufficiency Symptom Survey (CISS) was conducted annually from 2018 to 2023, excluding 2020, in an initial group of 217 third-year Optics and Optometry degree university student participants. In the final group (178 participants), the statistical differences in CISS scores between years were analysed, both overall and by questionnaire subgroup, along with associations between CISS diagnostic categories before and after 2020. Significant differences were found between years in the subscale and total score analyses (Kruskal-Wallis, both p ≤ 0.049). Pairwise comparisons showed significant differences for the performance subgroup in 2021 vs. 2019 and 2018 (Mann-Whitney, both p ≤ 0.004), while in terms of the total score, there was a statistical difference in 2021 vs. 2018 (Mann-Whitney, p < 0.001). The distribution analysis indicated a significant difference between groups (Chi, p = 0.004), with participants from 2021 or later more likely to exhibit higher CISS scores (OR = 3.47, 95%CI 1.04-8.58). The present study shows significant temporal increments in symptomatic status related to CI among university students from 2018 to 2023, indicating a potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic educational landscape on these outcomes.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the self-care and health condition of the older adults. CUIDAMOS+75. A mixed methods study protocol

Aims

To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health condition of people ≥75 years of age and on their family caregivers in Spain.

Design

Multicentric, mixed method concurrent study.

Methods

This work, which will be conducted within the primary care setting in 11 administrative regions of Spain, will include three coordinated studies with different methodologies. The first is a population-based cohort study that will use real-life data to analyze the rates and evolution of health needs, care provision, and services utilization before, during, and after the pandemic. The second is a prospective cohort study with 18 months of follow-up that will evaluate the impact of COVID-19 disease on mortality, frailty, functional and cognitive capacity, and quality of life of the participants. Finally, the third will be a qualitative study with a critical social approach to understand and interpret the social, political, and economic dimensions associated with the use of health services during the pandemic. We have followed the SPIRIT Checklist to address trial protocol and related documents. This research is being funded by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III since 2021 and was approved by its ethics committee (June 2022).

Discussion

The study findings will reveal the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the older adults and their caregivers. This information will serve policymakers to adapt health policies to the needs of this population in situations of maximum stress, such as that produced by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trial Registration

Identifier: NCT05249868 [ClinicalTrials.gov].

Epidemic outcomes following government responses to COVID-19: Insights from nearly 100,000 models

Government responses to COVID-19 are among the most globally impactful events of the 21st century. The extent to which responses-such as school closures-were associated with changes in COVID-19 outcomes remains unsettled. Multiverse analyses offer a systematic approach to testing a large range of models. We used daily data on 16 government responses in 181 countries in 2020-2021, and 4 outcomes-cases, infections, COVID-19 deaths, and all-cause excess deaths-to construct 99,736 analytic models. Among those, 42% suggest outcomes improved following more stringent responses ("helpful"). No subanalysis (e.g. limited to cases as outcome) demonstrated a preponderance of helpful or unhelpful associations. Among the 14 associations with P values < 1 × 10-30, 5 were helpful and 9 unhelpful. In summary, we find no patterns in the overall set of models that suggests a clear relationship between COVID-19 government responses and outcomes. Strong claims about government responses' impacts on COVID-19 may lack empirical support.

Core health system measures response to COVID-19 among East Asian countries

Objective

The purpose of this study is to summarize the health system response to COVID-19 in four East Asian countries, analyze the effectiveness of their health system response, and provide lessons for other countries to control the epidemic and optimize their health system response.

Methods

This study investigated and summarized COVID-19 data and health system response in four East Asian countries, China, Japan, Mongolia, and South Korea from national governments and ministries of health, WHO country offices, and official websites of international organizations, to assess the effectiveness of health system measures.

Result

As of June 30, 2022, all four countries are in a declining portion of COVID-19. China has two waves, and new cases increased slowly, with the total cases per million remaining within 4, indicating a low level. Japan has experienced six waves, with case growth at an all-time high, total cases per million of 250.994. Mongolia started the epidemic later, but also experienced four waves, with total cases per million of 632.658, the highest of the four countries. South Korea has seen an increasing number of new cases per wave, with a total case per million of 473.759.

Conclusion

In containment strategies adopted by China and Mongolia, and mitigation strategies adopted by Japan and South Korea, health systems have played important roles in COVID-19 prevention and control. While promoting vaccination, countries should pay attention to non-pharmaceutical health system measures, as evidenced by: focusing on public information campaigns to lead public minds; strengthening detection capabilities for early detection and identification; using technical ways to participate in contact tracing, and promoting precise judging isolation.

Clear as a bell? Policy stringency and elderly health during Covid-19

This paper investigates how restriction policies have impacted elderly self-assessed health (SAH) in Europe during the pandemic, and how the Covid-19 infection interacts with policy stringency to modulate the SAH deterioration. Using the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) between October 2019 and August 2021, including 9,034 adults aged 50 years and above, alongside with a stringency index from the Oxford's Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we design both an adjusted probit model and a recursive bivariate probit model to test for endogeneity of Covid-19 infection. Estimations results show a bell curve between stringency and SAH degradation: a deleterious effect of restrictions at low levels of stringency up to a tipping point after which more stringent policies become protective. Covid-19 infection moderates this association. Depending on individuals' initial health, the effect of restrictions is uneven: highly stringent policies become damaging for individuals most likely to enter a vulnerabilization path, for whom the bell curve is thus inverted. Overall, this study shows clear patterns of association between policy stringency and perceived health among older Europeans, and highlights the potential trade-off between targeting as many people as possible, those in poor health or those on the edge of vulnerability.

Association between Family Functioning, Child Emotional and Behavioral Problems, and Parental Stress during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Thailand

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on people of all ages, especially children. This is a cross-sectional study in Thailand to explore the emotional and behavioral problems of school-aged children and associated factors during the lockdown. An online survey was conducted with 942 parents of school-age children. Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) scores showed that total difficulties and all subscale difficulties (hyperactivity, conduct problems, peer problems, and emotional problems) were increased, whereas prosocial behaviors were decreased in the pandemic period. The factors significantly associated with higher parental stress were higher emotional and peer problems after the COVID-19 outbreak, high family difficulty, and sleep problems. Sleep problems were associated with all children's difficulties, except prosocial behavior. High score in family difficulty subscale was associated with increased emotional problems, whereas poor family communication was associated with increased hyperactivity. Appetite change was negatively associated with parental stress and some children's difficulties. Higher household income, family time, physical activities, and recreational activities were associated with a decreased level of some difficulties and family functioning problems, but positively with an increase in the prosocial behavior of children. Additionally, higher screen time was associated with a higher level of hyperactivity, conduct problems, and poor family communication. This study demonstrated that Thai children were at high risk of developing mental health problems during the pandemic lockdown. We suggest that intervention to promote physical activities and reduce screen time is needed. Moreover, efficient monetary policy is urgently required. The limitations here include a recall bias with no baseline to compare and a potential selection bias due to parental selection and a webpage announcement.

Systematic review of empiric studies on lockdowns, workplace closures, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions in non-healthcare workplaces during the initial year of the COVID-19 pandemic: benefits and selected unintended consequences

BACKGROUND

We conducted a systematic review aimed to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions within non-healthcare workplaces and community-level workplace closures and lockdowns on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, selected mental disorders, and employment outcomes in workers or the general population.

METHODS

The inclusion criteria included randomized controlled trials and non-randomized studies of interventions. The exclusion criteria included modeling studies. Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, and other databases from January 1, 2020, through May 11, 2021. Risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool. Meta-analysis and sign tests were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 60 observational studies met the inclusion criteria. There were 40 studies on COVID-19 outcomes, 15 on anxiety and depression symptoms, and five on unemployment and labor force participation. There was a paucity of studies on physical distancing, physical barriers, and symptom and temperature screening within workplaces. The sign test indicated that lockdown reduced COVID-19 incidence or case growth rate (23 studies, p < 0.001), reproduction number (11 studies, p < 0.001), and COVID-19 mortality or death growth rate (seven studies, p < 0.05) in the general population. Lockdown did not have any effect on anxiety symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = -0.02, 95% CI: -0.06, 0.02). Lockdown had a small effect on increasing depression symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.21), but publication bias could account for the observed effect. Lockdown increased unemployment (pooled mean difference = 4.48 percentage points, 95% CI: 1.79, 7.17) and decreased labor force participation (pooled mean difference = -2.46 percentage points, 95% CI: -3.16, -1.77). The risk of bias for most of the studies on COVID-19 or employment outcomes was moderate or serious. The risk of bias for the studies on anxiety or depression symptoms was serious or critical.

CONCLUSIONS

Empiric studies indicated that lockdown reduced the impact of COVID-19, but that it had notable unwanted effects. There is a pronounced paucity of studies on the effect of interventions within still-open workplaces. It is important for countries that implement lockdown in future pandemics to consider strategies to mitigate these unintended consequences.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration # CRD42020182660.

Estimating hidden relationships in dynamical systems: Discovering drivers of infection rates of COVID-19

Discovering causal influences among internal variables is a fundamental goal of complex systems research. This paper presents a framework for uncovering hidden relationships from limited time-series data by combining methods from nonlinear estimation and information theory. The approach is based on two sequential steps: first, we reconstruct a more complete state of the underlying dynamical system, and second, we calculate mutual information between pairs of internal state variables to detail causal dependencies. Equipped with time-series data related to the spread of COVID-19 from the past three years, we apply this approach to identify the drivers of falling and rising infections during the three main waves of infection in the Chicago metropolitan region. The unscented Kalman filter nonlinear estimation algorithm is implemented on an established epidemiological model of COVID-19, which we refine to include isolation, masking, loss of immunity, and stochastic transition rates. Through the systematic study of mutual information between infection rate and various stochastic parameters, we find that increased mobility, decreased mask use, and loss of immunity post sickness played a key role in rising infections, while falling infections were controlled by masking and isolation.

Synchronous Diagnosis of Respiratory Viruses Variants via Receptonics Based on Modeling Receptor-Ligand Dynamics

The transmission and pathogenesis of highly contagious fatal respiratory viruses are increasing, and the need for an on-site diagnostic platform has arisen as an issue worldwide. Furthermore, as the spread of respiratory viruses continues, different variants have become the dominant circulating strains. To prevent virus transmission, the development of highly sensitive and accurate on-site diagnostic assays is urgently needed. Herein, a facile diagnostic device is presented for multi-detection based on the results of detailed receptor-ligand dynamics simulations for the screening of various viral strains. The novel bioreceptor-treated electronics (receptonics) device consists of a multichannel graphene transistor and cell-entry receptors conjugated to N-heterocyclic carbene (NHC). An ultrasensitive multi-detection performance is achieved without the need for sample pretreatment, which will enable rapid diagnosis and prevent the spread of pathogens. This platform can be applied for the diagnosis of variants of concern in clinical respiratory virus samples and primate models. This multi-screening platform can be used to enhance surveillance and discriminate emerging virus variants before they become a severe threat to public health.

Exposure to urban green spaces and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from two low and lower-middle-income countries

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on mental health globally, with limited access to mental health care affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) the most. In response, alternative strategies to support mental health have been necessary, with access to green spaces being a potential solution. While studies have highlighted the role of green spaces in promoting mental health during pandemic lockdowns, few studies have focused on the role of green spaces in mental health recovery after lockdowns. This study investigated changes in green space access and associations with mental health recovery in Bangladesh and Egypt across the pandemic.

Methods

An online survey was conducted between January and April 2021 after the first lockdown was lifted in Bangladesh (n = 556) and Egypt (n = 660). We evaluated indoor and outdoor greenery, including the number of household plants, window views, and duration of outdoor visits. The quantity of greenness was estimated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This index was estimated using satellite images with a resolution of 10x10m during the survey period (January-April 2021) with Sentinel-2 satellite in the Google Earth Engine platform. We calculated averages within 250m, 300m, 500m and 1000m buffers of the survey check-in locations using ArcGIS 10.3. Multiple linear regression models were used to evaluate relationships between changes in natural exposure and changes in mental health.

Results

The results showed that mental health improved in both countries after the lockdown period. People in both countries increased their time spent outdoors in green spaces after the lockdown period, and these increases in time outdoors were associated with improved mental health. Unexpectedly, changes in the number of indoor plants after the lockdown period were associated with contrasting mental health outcomes; more plants translated to increased anxiety and decreased depression. Refocusing lives after the pandemic on areas other than maintaining indoor plants may assist with worrying and feeling panicked. Still, indoor plants may assist with depressive symptoms for people remaining isolated.

Conclusion

These findings have important implications for policymakers and urban planners in LMICs, highlighting the need to increase access to natural environments in urban areas to improve mental health and well-being in public health emergencies.

Quality assessment and community detection methods for anonymized mobility data in the Italian Covid context

We discuss how to assess the reliability of partial, anonymized mobility data and compare two different methods to identify spatial communities based on movements: Greedy Modularity Clustering (GMC) and the novel Critical Variable Selection (CVS). These capture different aspects of mobility: direct population fluxes (GMC) and the probability for individuals to move between two nodes (CVS). As a test case, we consider movements of Italians before and during the SARS-Cov2 pandemic, using Facebook users' data and publicly available information from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) to construct daily mobility networks at the interprovincial level. Using the Perron-Frobenius (PF) theorem, we show how the mean stochastic network has a stationary population density state comparable with data from Istat, and how this ceases to be the case if even a moderate amount of pruning is applied to the network. We then identify the first two national lockdowns through temporal clustering of the mobility networks, define two representative graphs for the lockdown and non-lockdown conditions and perform optimal spatial community identification on both graphs using the GMC and CVS approaches. Despite the fundamental differences in the methods, the variation of information (VI) between them assesses that they return similar partitions of the Italian provincial networks in both situations. The information provided can be used to inform policy, for example, to define an optimal scale for lockdown measures. Our approach is general and can be applied to other countries or geographical scales.

Inequalities in regional excess mortality and life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe

Using data for 201 regions (NUTS 2) in Europe, we examine the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic and how the mortality inequalities between regions changed between 2020 and 2022. We show that over the three years of the pandemic, not only did the level of excess mortality rate change considerably, but also its geographical distribution. Focusing on life expectancy as a summary measure of mortality conditions, we find that the variance of regional life expectancy increased sharply in 2021 but returned to the pre-pandemic level in 2022. The 2021 increase was due to a much higher-than-average excess mortality in regions with lower pre-pandemic life expectancy. While the life expectancy inequality has returned to its pre-pandemic level in 2022, the observed life expectancy in almost all regions is far below that expected without the pandemic.

Examining resilience among child protection professionals during COVID-19: A global comparison across 57 countries

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic led to numerous challenges for child protection professionals (CPPs). However, limited research has investigated the interwoven concepts of coping, resilience, and mental distress among CPPs during COVID-19 on a global scale.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to explore CPPs' practice, resilience, and mental distress during COVID-19, the relationship between their resilience and mental distress, the global stability of the Multi-System Model of Resilience (MSMR), and how CPPs' resilience varied according to the Human Development Index (HDI).

METHODS

Data were collected from 420 CPPs in 57 countries across five continents between July and September 2021. Participants completed an online questionnaire on demographics, resilience, mental distress, coping, and perceptions of child protection during the pandemic in their native languages. The analyses compared the countries grouped according to HDI using means comparisons, correlations, and multiple linear regressions. A two-path analysis was also performed to identify variables associated with behavioral resilience engagement and mental distress.

RESULTS

The findings indicated that CPPs' perceptions of COVID-19's impact on child maltreatment varied in correlation with their country's HDI. There were also significant HDI-based differences regarding the perceived opportunity to engage in resilient behavior and its helpfulness. Years of professional experience, internal resilience, and external resilience were shown to be significant predictors of mental distress among CPPs during the pandemic, and resilience mediated how years of experience predicted mental distress.

CONCLUSIONS

This study emphasized the importance of experience and internal resilience for CPPs' psychological well-being. It also provides empirical evidence to support the MSMR theory on a global scale. Additionally, it demonstrates how the perceived changes in child maltreatment during COVID-19 may be associated with regional HDI. Lastly, the opportunities CPPs had to engage in resilient behavior and how much this helped them was associated with regional HDI, but not in the way originally predicted. Study results also hold implications for how practice and policy may be altered to help CPPs cope better during times of crisis and generally.

Unlocking the importance of perceived governance: The impact on COVID-19 in NUTS-2 European regions

In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, governments implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Previous literature suggests that NPI effectiveness is influenced by governance quality. The acceptance and perceived necessity of these measures by the public are crucial to their success, as NPIs cannot be easily enforced without public support. Does regional governance also play a role? This study examines the correlation between the quality of governance in European NUTS-2 regions and the spread of COVID-19. The findings indicate that overall perceived governance, and its perceived quality and corruption pillars, significantly impact the effectiveness of these interventions. This effect was pronounced during the first wave and then diminished in importance, disappearing before vaccines were available, suggesting that regional governance matters especially in the immediate aftermath of an exogenous shock.

Impact of COVID-19 on patterns of drug utilization: A case study at national hospital

BACKGROUND

The Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the corresponding mitigation measures have had a discernible impact on drug utilization among outpatients. However, limited research exists on the prescription trends in the elderly population during the pandemic period in Viet Nam.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to analyze the effects of COVID-19 on outpatient drug utilization patterns at a national geriatric hospital in Ho Chi Minh City before and after the early onset of the pandemic.

METHODS

Data was collected from the prescriptions and administration claims, encompassing the period from January 2016 to December 2022. The dataset was divided into two periods: Period 1: January 2016 to December 2020 and Period 2: January 2021 to December 2022. The drug utilization was measured using DDD/1000P (defined daily doses-DDD per 1000 prescriptions) on a monthly basis. The analysis employed interrupted time series using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to detect changes in drug use levels and rates.

RESULTS

A total of 1,060,507 and 644,944 outpatient prescriptions from Thong Nhat Hospital were included in Period 1 and Period 2, respectively. The median age of the patients were 58 in Period 1 and 67 years old in Period 2. The most common comorbidities were dyslipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. In terms of medication utilization, cardiovascular drugs were the most frequently prescribed, followed by drugs active on the digestive and hormonal systems. The study observed significant surges in the number of prescriptions and the average number of drugs per prescription. However, there were no significant changes in the overall consumption of all drugs. Among the drug groups related to the cardiovascular system, three subgroups experienced a sudden and significant increase: cardiac therapy, beta-blocking agents, and antihypertensives, with increasing consumption levels of 1,177.73 [CI 95%: 79.29; 2,276.16], 73.32 [CI 95%: 28.18; 118.46], and 36.70 [CI 95%: 6.74; 66.66] DDD/1000P, respectively. On the other hand, there was a significant monthly decrease of -31.36 [CI 95%: -57.02; -5.70] DDD/1000P in the consumption of anti-inflammatory and antirheumatic products. Interestingly, there was a significant increase of 74.62 [CI 95%: -0.36; 149.60] DDD/1000P in the use of antigout preparations.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 resulted in a sudden, non-significant increase in overall drug consumption levels among outpatients. Notably, our findings highlight significant increases in the utilization of three drug groups related to the cardiovascular system, specifically cardiac therapy, beta-blocking agents, and antihypertensives. Intriguingly, there was a statistically significant increase in the consumption of antigout preparations, despite a decline in the monthly consumption rate of non-steroidal anti-flammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Further studies in the following years are necessary to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of COVID-19 on outpatient drug utilization patterns.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare services utilization among people living with HIV in Catalonia, Spain: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare services usage. We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare services utilization among people living with HIV (PLWH) in Catalonia, Spain.

METHODS

We accessed public healthcare usage in HIV units, primary care, hospitals, and emergency departments among 17,738 PLWH in the PISCIS cohort from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2020. We performed an interrupted time series analysis using the autoregressive integrated moving average to estimate the effect of COVID-19 on medical visits and HIV monitoring among PLWH.

RESULTS

A non-significant decrease of 17.1% (95% CI: [-29.4, 0.4]) in overall medical visits was observed during the lockdown, followed by a steady resumption until the end of 2020. Three health facilities presented statistically significant declines in visits during the lockdown: HIV units (-44.8% [-56.7, -23.6]), hospitals (-40.4% [-52.8, -18.1]), and emergency departments (-36.9% [-47.0, -21.9]); thereafter, the visits have begun to increase steadily but not to previous levels as of December 2020. In contrast, primary care visits remained unchanged during the lockdown by 1.9% (95% CI: -13.5, 23.9). CD4 cell (54.2% [95% CI: -64.4, -36.0]) and HIV RNA viral load (53.1% [95% CI: -62.9, -36.1]) laboratory monitoring reduced significantly during the lockdown.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 lockdowns significantly disrupted in-person healthcare services usage among PLWH. The reduction in healthcare utilization however did not affect primary care services. Despite services gradually rebounding to pre-pandemic levels, it is imperative to effectively prepare for future pandemics and implement measures to ensure continuous provision of care to PLWH during pandemic lockdowns.

Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures adopted by governments to control the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a Panel VAR model for the OECD countries, we test for Granger causality between the 7-day cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and government response indexes. Granger-type statistics reveal evidence that the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the measures taken by governments. However, limited or nonexistent evidence supports the reverse situation. This suggests that government measures were not highly effective in controlling the pandemic. While not implying total ineffectiveness, our results indicate a considerable lack of efficacy, emphasizing a lesson for governments to learn from and correct in preparation for similar events in the future.

Schools and the transmission of Sars-Cov-2: Evidence from Italy

This paper studies the effect on the spread of Sars-Cov-2 in Italy of schools' re-openings and closures. Exploiting different re-opening dates across regions after the summer break of 2020, I show that early-opening regions experienced more cases in the 40 days following school re-openings compared with late-opening ones. However, there is great uncertainty around the estimates, and this suggests a wide dispersion in the effects of school re-openings on Sars-Cov-2 transmission. I also study the effect of school closures in Campania, one of the biggest regions in Southern Italy. Using a synthetic control approach, I show that school closures are associated with lower numbers of cases relative to the counterfactual group, particularly in younger age groups. In contrast, I find no significant effects on older age groups, which are more likely to require hospitalization. Finally, by exploiting survey data, I provide descriptive evidence on the increased incidence rate among teachers and students relative to the general population, following school re-openings.

Ebola incidence and mortality before and during a lockdown: The 2022 epidemic in Uganda

On September 20, 2022, an Ebola Disease (EBOD) outbreak was declared in Mubende district, Central Uganda. Following a rapid surge in the number of cases and mortality, the Government of Uganda imposed a lockdown in the two most affected districts, Mubende and Kassanda. We describe the trends in EBOD incidence and mortality nationally and in the two districts before and during the lockdown and the lessons learned during the epidemic response. We retrieved data from the Ministry of Health situation reports from September 20, 2022, when the EBOD outbreak was declared until November 26, 2022, when the lockdown ended. We graphed trends in EBOD morbidity and mortality during a 3-week and 6-week lockdown, computed the EBOD case fatality rate, and summarized the major lessons learned during the epidemic response. We found case fatality rate during the pre-lockdown, 3-week lockdown, and 6-week lockdown period was 37.9% (22/58), 39.3% (53/135), and 38.7% (55/142), respectively. In the early weeks of the lockdown, EBOD incidence and mortality increased nationally and in Kassanda district while Mubende district registered a decline in incidence and stagnation in mortality. With the extension of the lockdown to six weeks, the EBOD incidence and mortality during the 4-6-week lockdown declined compared to the pre-lockdown period. In conclusion, the EBOD incidence and mortality remained higher in the early weeks of the lockdown than during the pre-lockdown period nationally and in one of the two districts. With extended lockdown, incidence and mortality dropped in the 4-6-week period than the pre-lockdown period. Therefore, reliance on known public health measures to control an EBOD outbreak is important.

Recommended distances for physical distancing during COVID-19 pandemics reveal cultural connections between countries

During COVID-19 pandemic several public health measures were implemented by diverse countries to reduce the risk of COVID-19, including social distancing. Here we collected the minimal distance recommended by each country for physical distancing at the onset of the pandemic and aimed to examine whether it had an impact on the outbreak dynamics and how this specific value was chosen. Despite an absence of data on SARS-CoV-2 viral transmission at the beginning of the pandemic, we found that most countries recommended physical distancing with a precise minimal distance, between one meter/three feet and two meters/six feet. 45% of the countries advised one meter/three feet and 49% advised a higher minimal distance. The recommended minimal distance did not show a clear correlation with reproduction rate nor with the number of new cases per million, suggesting that the overall COVID-19 dynamics in each country depended on multiple interacting factors. Interestingly, the recommended minimal distance correlated with several cultural parameters: it was higher in countries with larger interpersonal distance between two interacting individuals in non-epidemic conditions, and it correlated with civil law systems, and with currency. This suggests that countries which share common conceptions such as civil law systems and currency unions tend to adopt the same public health measures.

The effectiveness of vaccination, testing, and lockdown strategies against COVID-19

The ability of various policy activities to reduce the reproduction rate of the COVID-19 disease is widely discussed. Using a stringency index that comprises a variety of lockdown levels, such as school and workplace closures, we analyze the effectiveness of government restrictions. At the same time, we investigate the capacity of a range of lockdown measures to lower the reproduction rate by considering vaccination rates and testing strategies. By including all three components in an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovery) model, we show that a general and comprehensive test strategy is instrumental in reducing the spread of COVID-19. The empirical study demonstrates that testing and isolation represent a highly effective and preferable approach towards overcoming the pandemic, in particular until vaccination rates have risen to the point of herd immunity.

Impact of the pandemic and its containment measures in Europe upon aspects of affective impairments: a Google Trends informetrics study

BACKGROUND

In late 2019, a new virus began spreading in Wuhan, China. By the end of 2021, more than 260 million people worldwide had been infected and 5.2 million people had died because of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Various countermeasures have been implemented to contain the infections, depending on the country, infection prevalence, and political and infrastructural resources. The pandemic and the containment measures have induced diverse psychological burdens. Using internet queries as a proxy, this study examines the psychological consequences on a European level of SARS-CoV-2 containment measures.

METHODS

Using informetric analyses, this study reviews within 32 European countries a total of 28 search parameters derived from the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) as aspects of affective disorder.

RESULTS

Our results show that there are several psychological aspects which are significantly emphasized during the pandemic and its containment measures: 'anxiety', 'dejection', 'weariness', 'listlessness', 'loss of appetite', 'loss of libido', 'panic attack', and 'worthlessness'. These terms are significantly more frequently part of a search query during the pandemic than before the outbreak. Furthermore, our results revealed that search parameters such as 'psychologist', 'psychotherapist', 'psychotherapy' have increased highly significantly (p < 0.01) since the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

The psychological distress caused by the pandemic correlates significantly with the frequency of people searching for psychological and psychotherapeutic support on the Internet.

Public Perceptions Of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies In Europe: Socioeconomic Status And Trust Were Factors

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide implemented nonpharmaceutical lockdown policies to mitigate the impact of the virus. The effectiveness of these policies depended on public support, and they came with serious consequences for the population. Given that people's perceptions can influence their support for lockdown policies, we aimed to elicit perceptions of policy stringency among people in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the United Kingdom in early 2021 as part of the European Covid Survey. We examined the extent to which objective measures of policy stringency and other factors were associated with these perceptions, focusing on disadvantaged populations. We found that objective measures of stringency did not accurately capture the impact of lockdown policies on people. Moreover, we found that socioeconomically disadvantaged people perceived policies as stricter than did less disadvantaged people and that trust in information sources greatly influenced such perceptions. Our findings underscore the importance of understanding factors influencing policy perception to help policy makers develop more effective and equitable infection containment strategies.

Mental health effects of COVID-19 lockdowns: A Twitter-based analysis

We use a distinctive methodology that leverages a fixed population of Twitter users located in France to gauge the mental health effects of repeated lockdown orders. To do so, we derive from our population a mental health indicator that measures the frequency of words expressing anger, anxiety and sadness. Our indicator did not reveal a statistically significant mental health response during the first lockdown, while the second lockdown triggered a sharp and persistent deterioration in all three emotions. Our estimates also show a more severe deterioration in mental health among women and younger users during the second lockdown. These results suggest that successive stay-at-home orders significantly worsen mental health across a large segment of the population. We also show that individuals who are closer to their social network were partially protected by this network during the first lockdown, but were no longer protected during the second, demonstrating the gravity of successive lockdowns for mental health.

Academic and healthcare efforts from Cessation to complete resumption of professional football tournaments during COVID-19 pandemic: A narrative review

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus led to over 626 million infections and 6.5 million deaths worldwide and forced to cancel or postpone several sporting events. Effective control techniques are therefore urgently required to avoid COVID-19 spread at these local and global events. This narrative review addressed the healthcare and research efforts on the intersections between COVID-19 and major professional sports leagues worldwide, with special reference to the FIFA World Cup football 2022. This explained how the broader transformation of COVID-19 from being a potential risk to an urgent pandemic public health emergency, caused the world of Football to halt between February and March 2020. This review could add to the growing literature on the importance of scientific research in understanding the relationship between mass sports events and COVID-19 trajectory, concerning studies conducted globally and particularly for the recommencement of major professional football competitions. The information outlined in the article may help sports organizations understand the risks associated with sports and their settings and improve their preparedness for future events under unprecedented circumstances. There were tremendous global healthcare and research efforts to deal with this unprecedented pandemic. The successful FIFA World Cup football tournament was an indicator of the success of these efforts.

An overview of COVID-19 global epidemiology and discussion of potential drivers of variable global pandemic impacts

With a WHO-estimated excess mortality burden of 14.9 million over the course of 2020 and 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a major human impact so far. It has also affected a range of disciplines, systems and practices from mathematical modelling to behavioural sciences, pharmaceutical development to health system management. This article explores these developments and, to set the scene, this paper summarizes the global epidemiology of COVID-19 from January 2020 to June 2021 and considers some potential drivers of variation.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Epidemiological Situation of Pulmonary Tuberculosis-Using Natural Language Processing

BACKGROUND

We aimed to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) using artificial intelligence. To do so, we compared the real-life situation during the pandemic with the pre-2020 situation.

METHODS

This non-interventional, retrospective, observational study applied natural language processing to the electronic health records of the Castilla-La Mancha region of Spain. The analysis was conducted from January 2015 to December 2020.

RESULTS

A total of 2592 patients were diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis; 64.6% were males, and the mean age was 53.5 years (95%CI 53.0-54.0). In 2020, pulmonary tuberculosis diagnoses dropped by 28% compared to 2019. In total, 62 (14.2%) patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 and pulmonary tuberculosis coinfection in 2020, with a mean age of 52.3 years (95%CI 48.3-56.2). The main symptoms in these patients were dyspnea (27.4%) and cough (35.5%), although their comorbidities were no greater than patients with isolated TB. The female sex was more frequently affected, representing 53.4% of this patient subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, a decrease was observed in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis. Women presented a significantly higher risk for pulmonary tuberculosis and COVID-19 coinfection, although the symptoms were not more severe than patients diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis alone.

Governmental anti-pandemic policies, vaccination, population mobility, Twitter narratives, and the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the European Union countries

We provide large-scale empirical evidence on the effects of multiple governmental regulatory and health policies, vaccination, population mobility, and COVID-19-related Twitter narratives on the spread of a new coronavirus infection. Using multiple-level fixed effects panel data model with weekly data for 27 European Union countries in the period of March 2020-June 2021, we show that governmental response policies were effective both in reducing the number of COVID-19 infection cases and deaths from it, particularly, in the countries with higher level of rule of law. Vaccination expectedly helped to decrease the number of virus cases. Reductions in population mobility in public places and workplaces were also powerful in fighting the pandemic. Next, we identify four core pandemic-related Twitter narratives: governmental response policies, people's sad feelings during the pandemic, vaccination, and pandemic-related international politics. We find that sad feelings' narrative helped to combat the virus spread in EU countries. Our findings also reveal that while in countries with high rule of law international politics' narrative helped to reduce the virus spread, in countries with low rule of law the effect was strictly the opposite. The latter finding suggests that trust in politicians played an important role in confronting the pandemic.

Performance of two educational approaches in increasing knowledge of high-school students about COVID-19 during the first wave of pandemic

OBJECTIVES

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has greatly altered peoples' daily lives. Teachers and students were found quite unprepared for the emergence of the first COVID-19 wave. So, improving the knowledge of students about COVID-19 is an important issue.

METHODS

In this study, 240 high students attended. Two interventions with the same contents, but in different ways, were delivered. A structured questionnaire was utilized to collect data on demographic information, and information about the behavioral intention toward COVID-19 before and after the educational interventions as well as a control group that received no educational intervention.

RESULTS

students in all arms had similar baseline knowledge of COVID-19. The results of the post-analysis showed the efficiency of educational techniques in increasing students' knowledge about COVID-19. So the audio-visual training method performed significantly better than the visual training method (p = 0.03). Both approaches achieved better scores than the control group (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

During the outbreak of COVID-19, multimedia-based learning is a more effective educational approach and can improve the learning outcomes related to COVID-19 and achieve learning goals without close contact than written materials.

A comparison of COVID-19 incidence rates across six European countries in 2021

International comparisons of COVID-19 incidence rates have helped gain insights into the characteristics of the disease, benchmark disease impact, shape public health measures and inform potential travel restrictions and border control measures. However, these comparisons may be biased by differences in COVID-19 surveillance systems and approaches to reporting in each country. To better understand these differences and their impact on incidence comparisons, we collected data on surveillance systems from six European countries: Belgium, England, France, Italy, Romania and Sweden. Data collected included: target testing populations, access to testing, case definitions, data entry and management and statistical approaches to incidence calculation. Average testing, incidence and contextual data were also collected. Data represented the surveillance systems as they were in mid-May 2021. Overall, important differences between surveillance systems were detected. Results showed wide variations in testing rates, access to free testing and the types of tests recorded in national databases, which may substantially limit incidence comparability. By systematically including testing information when comparing incidence rates, these comparisons may be greatly improved. New indicators incorporating testing or existing indicators such as death or hospitalisation will be important to improving international comparisons.

Modelling the effect of travel-related policies on disease control in a meta-population structure

Travel restrictions, while delaying the spread of an emerging disease from the source, could inflict substantial socioeconomic burden. Travel-related policies, such as quarantine and testing of travelers, may be considered as alternative strategies to mitigate the negative impact of travel bans. We developed a meta-population, delay-differential model to evaluate a strategy that combines testing of travelers prior to departure from the source of infection with quarantine and testing at exit from quarantine in the destination population. Our results, based on early parameter estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, indicate that testing travelers at exit from quarantine is more effective in delaying case importation than testing them before departure or upon arrival. We show that a 1-day quarantine with an exit test could outperform a longer, 3-day quarantine without testing in delaying the outbreak peak. Rapid, large-scale testing capacities with short turnaround times provide important means of detecting infectious cases and reducing case importation, while shortening quarantine duration for travelers at destination.

The Role of Social Media in Building Pandemic Resilience in an Urban Community: A Qualitative Case Study

This paper explores the influence of social media in fostering resilience within an urban spatial context, specifically in Bangalore, India, during the COVID-19 lockdown, a period marked by a surge in digital communication due to movement restrictions. To control the rapid spread of the virus, over 1.38 billion people were given stay-at-home orders by the government of India during the onset of the pandemic. The restrictions in movement forced individuals to shift to online modes of connection and communication. As the field of digital epidemiology, that is, the use of digital tools and data to understand and improve health took center stage during the pandemic, the focus shifted towards the social media landscape, which is often associated with its negative aspects, such as misinformation. However, this paper delves into social media's potential to build resilience on a local scale, particularly given its increased usage during the pandemic. Through in-depth online interviews with eight urban residents, we conducted a thematic analysis to understand social media's role during the lockdown. Results indicate that social media facilitated effective information exchange and fostered a sense of community. Furthermore, it engendered an environment conducive to prosocial behavior, a known resilience amplifier. We also highlight the importance of baseline context regarding the users directly engaged in social media data generation with respect to digital epidemiology analytics tools for large-scale social media data and the need for qualitative input feeding into their design. Our study highlights the need for a balanced perspective on social media use in times of crisis, recognizing its potential to boost community resilience in an urban setting, and further enriching digital epidemiology approaches.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Coronary Heart Disease: the Next Surge

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In this narrative review, we highlight different ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted coronary heart disease (CHD) burden and how a surge in morbidity and mortality may be expected in the near future. We also discuss potential solutions, and the direction subsequent research and corrective actions should take.

RECENT FINDINGS

COVID-19 has been implicated in the development and worsening of CHD via acute and chronic mechanisms in the form of plaque rupture, destabilization, and sustenance of a chronic inflammatory state leading to long COVID syndrome and increased rates of myocardial infarction. However, indirectly the pandemic is likely to further escalate the CHD burden through poor health behaviors such as tobacco consumption, reduced physical activity, economic devastation and its associated sequelae, and regular cardiac care interruptions and delays. COVID-19 has increased the total CHD burden and will require extensive resource allocation and multifaceted strategies to curb future rise.

The impact of containment policy and mobility on COVID-19 cases through structural equation model in Chile, Singapore, South Korea and Israel

Objectives

The study aims to understand the impact of containment policy and mobility on COVID-19 cases in Chile, Singapore, South Korea and Israel. To provide experience in epidemic prevention and control.

Methods

Structural equation modeling (SEM) of containment policies, mobility, and COVID-19 cases were used to test and analyze the proposed hypotheses.

Results

Chile, Israel and Singapore adopted containment strategies, focusing on closure measures. South Korea adopted a mitigation strategy with fewer closure measures, focusing on vaccination and severe case management. There was a significant negative relationship among containment policies, mobility, and COVID-19 cases.

Conclusion

To control the COVID-19 and slow down the increase of COVID-19 cases, countries can increase the stringency of containment policies when COVID-19 epidemic is more severe. Thus, countries can take measures from the following three aspects: strengthen the risk monitoring, and keep abreast of the COVID-19 risk; adjust closure measures in time and reduce mobility; and strengthen public education on COVID-19 prevention to motivate citizen to consciously adhere to preventive measures.

Fear itself. Is fear a determinant of the efficacy oflockdowns?

Among non-pharmaceutical measures for fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most important is the implementation of lockdowns. The cost and effectiveness of this policy remains a much-debated topic in economics. In this study we investigate whether a 'fear effect' is at work in influencing the effectiveness of lockdowns. According to previous contributions on the topic, fear can increase protective habits, and for this reason we may imagine that a high number of COVID-19-caused deaths creates fear among the population, which may make people more likely to follow government prescriptions and observe lockdowns strictly. By means of a qualitative-quantitative analysis, we find that among the 46 countries that reported coronavirus-caused deaths before the implementation of a lockdown, the top quartile for per capita deaths has better results in terms of reducing new COVID-19 cases after a lockdown, compared to the worst quartile. This suggests that the number of reported deaths, as well as its communication to the population, are important determinants of the effectiveness of a lockdown.

Subjective burden of government-imposed Covid-19 restrictions in Switzerland: Evidence from the 2022 LINK Covid-19 survey

BACKGROUND

While a large literature has quantified the health and economic impact of COVID-19, estimates on the subjective losses in quality of life due to government imposed restrictions remain scarce.

METHODS

We conducted a nationally representative online survey in Switzerland in February 2022 to measure average self-reported quality of life with government restrictions. We used a discrete choice experiment to compute average willingness to pay for avoiding specific restrictions and time-trade-off questions to quantify the relative quality of life under restrictions.

RESULTS

A total of 1299 Swiss residents completed the online survey between February 9th and 15th, 2022. On average, respondents valued life under severe restrictions at 39% of their usual life (estimated relative utility 0.39 [0.37, 0.42]). Willingness to pay for avoiding restrictions was lowest for masks (CHF 663 [319, 1007]), and highest for schools and daycares (CHF 4123 [3443, 4803]) as well as private parties (CHF 4520 [3811, 5229]). We estimate that between March 2020 and February 2022 a total of 5.7 Million QALYs were lost due to light, moderate and severe restrictions imposed by the governments.

CONCLUSIONS

The quality of life losses due to government restrictions are substantial, particularly when it comes to the closure of schools and daycares, as well as the prohibition of private gatherings. Future policies should weigh these costs against the health benefits achievable with specific measures.

Staying Home, Tweeting Hope: Mixed Methods Study of Twitter Sentiment Geographical Index During US Stay-At-Home Orders

BACKGROUND

Stay-at-home orders were one of the controversial interventions to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. The stay-at-home orders, implemented in 51 states and territories between March 7 and June 30, 2020, impacted the lives of individuals and communities and accelerated the heavy usage of web-based social networking sites. Twitter sentiment analysis can provide valuable insight into public health emergency response measures and allow for better formulation and timing of future public health measures to be released in response to future public health emergencies.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated how stay-at-home orders affect Twitter sentiment in the United States. Furthermore, this study aimed to understand the feedback on stay-at-home orders from groups with different circumstances and backgrounds. In addition, we particularly focused on vulnerable groups, including older people groups with underlying medical conditions, small and medium enterprises, and low-income groups.

METHODS

We constructed a multiperiod difference-in-differences regression model based on the Twitter sentiment geographical index quantified from 7.4 billion geo-tagged tweets data to analyze the dynamics of sentiment feedback on stay-at-home orders across the United States. In addition, we used moderated effects analysis to assess differential feedback from vulnerable groups.

RESULTS

We combed through the implementation of stay-at-home orders, Twitter sentiment geographical index, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths in 51 US states and territories. We identified trend changes in public sentiment before and after the stay-at-home orders. Regression results showed that stay-at-home orders generated a positive response, contributing to a recovery in Twitter sentiment. However, vulnerable groups faced greater shocks and hardships during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, economic and demographic characteristics had a significant moderating effect.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a clear positive shift in public opinion about COVID-19, with this positive impact occurring primarily after stay-at-home orders. However, this positive sentiment is time-limited, with 14 days later allowing people to be more influenced by the status quo and trends, so feedback on the stay-at-home orders is no longer positively significant. In particular, negative sentiment is more likely to be generated in states with a large proportion of vulnerable groups, and the policy plays a limited role. The pandemic hit older people, those with underlying diseases, and small and medium enterprises directly but hurt states with cross-cutting economic situations and more complex demographics over time. Based on large-scale Twitter data, this sociological perspective allows us to monitor the evolution of public opinion more directly, assess the impact of social events on public opinion, and understand the heterogeneity in the face of pandemic shocks.

20-Month monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater of Curitiba, in Southern Brazil

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the collapse of healthcare systems and led to the development and application of several approaches of wastewater-based epidemiology to monitor infected populations. The main objective of this study was to carry out a SARS-CoV-2 wastewater based surveillance in Curitiba, Southern Brazil Sewage samples were collected weekly for 20 months at the entrance of five treatment plants representing the entire city and quantified by qPCR using the N1 marker. The viral loads were correlated with epidemiological data. The correlation by sampling points showed that the relationship between the viral loads and the number of reported cases was best described by a cross-correlation function, indicating a lag between 7 and 14 days amidst the variables, whereas the data for the entire city presented a higher correlation (0.84) with the number of positive tests at lag 0 (sampling day). The results also suggest that the Omicron VOC resulted in higher titers than the Delta VOC. Overall, our results showed that the approach used was robust as an early warning system, even with the use of different epidemiological indicators or changes in the virus variants in circulation. Therefore, it can contribute to public decision-makers and health interventions, especially in vulnerable and low-income regions with limited clinical testing capacity. Looking toward the future, this approach will contribute to a new look at environmental sanitation and should even induce an increase in sewage coverage rates in emerging countries.

There is a need for more precise models to assess the determinants of health crises like COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global mortality. While the causal relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and the anomalous increase in deaths is established, more precise and complex models are needed to determine the exact weight of epidemiological factors involved. Indeed, COVID-19 behavior is influenced by a wide range of variables, including demographic characteristics, population habits and behavior, healthcare performance, and environmental and seasonal risk factors. The bidirectional causality between impacted and impacting aspects, as well as confounding variables, complicates efforts to draw clear, generalizable conclusions regarding the effectiveness and cost-benefit ratio of non-pharmaceutical health countermeasures. Thus, it is imperative that the scientific community and health authorities worldwide develop comprehensive models not only for the current pandemic but also for future health crises. These models should be implemented locally to account for micro-differences in epidemiological characteristics that may have relevant effects. It is important to note that the lack of a universal model does not imply that local decisions have been unjustified, and the request to decrease scientific uncertainty does not mean denying the evidence of the effectiveness of the countermeasures adopted. Therefore, this paper must not be exploited to denigrate either the scientific community or the health authorities.

Assessing the effectiveness of mandatory outdoor mask policy: The natural experiment of Campania

Face masks are possibly the main symbol of the COVID-19 pandemic. Once rarely used in Western countries, in the last two years they have become an object it is impossible to leave one's home without. Italy made their use a legal requirement, even outdoors, from late 2020 to early 2022. The effectiveness of this policy in reducing COVID-19 cases has been widely debated. The recent cancellation of their mandatory use in Italy offers an interesting setting in which to test its impact, since one Italian region (Campania) extended the restriction for a further three weeks. We aim to shed some light on the real-world impact of mandatory use of face masks outdoors, identifying the effect of this policy on the spread of COVID-19. By means of a quantitative analysis, employing a synthetic control method approach, we find that Campania had statistically the same number of cases as its synthetic counterfactual, built from a donor pool formed from the other Italian provinces. Hence, results suggest that while it imposes a burden on the public, the use of face masks outdoors is not correlated with a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases.

The Causal Role of Lockdowns in COVID-19: Conclusions From Daily Epidemiological, Psychological, and Sociological Data

Much has been written about the COVID-19 pandemic's epidemiological, psychological, and sociological consequences. Yet, the question about the role of the lockdown policy from psychological and sociological points of view has not been sufficiently addressed. Using epidemiological, psychological, and sociological daily data, we examined the causal role of lockdown and variation in morbidity referring to emotional and behavioral aspects. Dynamics of support requests to the Sahar organization concerning loneliness, depression, anxiety, family difficulties, and sexual trauma were investigated alongside processes of emergency and domestic violence reports to the Ministry of Welfare and Social Affairs. By exploring the signals and predictive modeling for a situation with no lockdown implementation, the lockdown was found as a critical factor in distress rising among the general population, which could affect long after the improvement in pandemic case counts. Applications and implications are discussed in the context of decision-making in dealing with crises as well as the need to allocate resources for adaptive coping.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions in the State of Georgia: Economic implications

Background

As Covid-19 spread rapidly, many countries implemented a strict shelter-in-place to "flatten the curve" and build capacity to treat in the absence of effective preventative therapies or treatments. Policymakers and public health officials must balance the positive health effects of lockdowns with economic, social, and psychological costs. This study examined the economic impacts of state and county level restrictions during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic for two regions of Georgia.

Methods

Taking unemployment data from the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker with mandate information from various sites, we examined trends before and after a mandate's implementation and relaxation using joinpoint regression.

Results

We found mandates with the largest impact on unemployment claims rates were the shelters-in-place (SIPs) and closures of non-essential businesses. Specific to our study, mandates had an effect where first implemented, i.e., if the state implemented an SIP after the county, the state-wide SIP had no additional measurable effect on claims rates. School closures had a consistent impact on increasing unemployment claims rates, but to a lesser degree than SIPs or business closures. While closing businesses did have a deleterious effect, implementing social distancing for businesses and restricting gatherings did not. Notably, the Coastal region was less affected than the Metro Area. Additionally, our findings indicate that race ethnicity may be a larger predictor of adverse economic effects than education, poverty level, or geographic area.

Conclusions

Our findings coincided with other studies in some areas but showed differences in what indicators may best predict adverse effects and that coastal communities may not always be as impacted as other regions in a state. Ultimately, the most restrictive measures consistently had the largest negative economic impacts. Social distancing and mask mandates can be effective for containment while mitigating the economic impacts of strict SIPs and business closures.