A systematic review on AI/ML approaches against COVID-19 outbreak

Integrating machine learning and artificial intelligence in life-course epidemiology: pathways to innovative public health solutions

The integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in life-course epidemiology offers remarkable opportunities to advance our understanding of the complex interplay between biological, social, and environmental factors that shape health trajectories across the lifespan. This perspective summarizes the current applications, discusses future potential and challenges, and provides recommendations for harnessing ML and AI technologies to develop innovative public health solutions. ML and AI have been increasingly applied in epidemiological studies, demonstrating their ability to handle large, complex datasets, identify intricate patterns and associations, integrate multiple and multimodal data types, improve predictive accuracy, and enhance causal inference methods. In life-course epidemiology, these techniques can help identify sensitive periods and critical windows for intervention, model complex interactions between risk factors, predict individual and population-level disease risk trajectories, and strengthen causal inference in observational studies. By leveraging the five principles of life-course research proposed by Elder and Shanahan-lifespan development, agency, time and place, timing, and linked lives-we discuss a framework for applying ML and AI to uncover novel insights and inform targeted interventions. However, the successful integration of these technologies faces challenges related to data quality, model interpretability, bias, privacy, and equity. To fully realize the potential of ML and AI in life-course epidemiology, fostering interdisciplinary collaborations, developing standardized guidelines, advocating for their integration in public health decision-making, prioritizing fairness, and investing in training and capacity building are essential. By responsibly harnessing the power of ML and AI, we can take significant steps towards creating healthier and more equitable futures across the life course.

AI-powered COVID-19 forecasting: a comprehensive comparison of advanced deep learning methods

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to pose significant challenges to the public health sector, including that of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The objective of this study was to assess the efficiency and accuracy of various deep-learning models in forecasting COVID-19 cases within the UAE, thereby aiding the nation's public health authorities in informed decision-making.

METHODS

This study utilized a comprehensive dataset encompassing confirmed COVID-19 cases, demographic statistics, and socioeconomic indicators. Several advanced deep learning models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM, convolutional neural network (CNN), CNN-LSTM, multilayer perceptron, and recurrent neural network (RNN) models, were trained and evaluated. Bayesian optimization was also implemented to fine-tune these models.

RESULTS

The evaluation framework revealed that each model exhibited different levels of predictive accuracy and precision. Specifically, the RNN model outperformed the other architectures even without optimization. Comprehensive predictive and perspective analytics were conducted to scrutinize the COVID-19 dataset.

CONCLUSION

This study transcends academic boundaries by offering critical insights that enable public health authorities in the UAE to deploy targeted data-driven interventions. The RNN model, which was identified as the most reliable and accurate for this specific context, can significantly influence public health decisions. Moreover, the broader implications of this research validate the capability of deep learning techniques in handling complex datasets, thus offering the transformative potential for predictive accuracy in the public health and healthcare sectors.

Application of Artificial intelligence in COVID-19-related geriatric care: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Older adults have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This scoping review aimed to summarize the current evidence of artificial intelligence (AI) use in the screening/monitoring, diagnosis, and/or treatment of COVID-19 among older adults.

METHOD

The review followed the Joanna Briggs Institute and Arksey and O'Malley frameworks. An information specialist performed a comprehensive search from the date of inception until May 2021, in six bibliographic databases. The selected studies considered all populations, and all AI interventions that had been used in COVID-19-related geriatric care. We focused on patient, healthcare provider, and healthcare system-related outcomes. The studies were restricted to peer-reviewed English publications. Two authors independently screened the titles and abstracts of the identified records, read the selected full texts, and extracted data from the included studies using a validated data extraction form. Disagreements were resolved by consensus, and if this was not possible, the opinion of a third reviewer was sought.

RESULTS

Six databases were searched , yielding 3,228 articles, of which 10 were included. The majority of articles used a single AI model to assess the association between patients' comorbidities and COVID-19 outcomes. Articles were mainly conducted in high-income countries, with limited representation of females in study participants, and insufficient reporting of participants' race and ethnicity.

DISCUSSION

This review highlighted how the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the application of AI to protect older populations, with most interventions in the pilot testing stage. Further work is required to measure effectiveness of these technologies in a larger scale, use more representative datasets for training of AI models, and expand AI applications to low-income countries.

Modern technologies and solutions to enhance surveillance and response systems for emerging zoonotic diseases

Background

Zoonotic diseases originating in animals pose a significant threat to global public health. Recent outbreaks, such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), have caused widespread illness, death, and socioeconomic disruptions worldwide. To cope with these diseases effectively, it is crucial to strengthen surveillance capabilities and establish rapid response systems.

Aim

The aim of this review to examine the modern technologies and solutions that have the potential to enhance zoonotic disease surveillance and outbreak responses and provide valuable insights into how cutting-edge innovations could be leveraged to prevent, detect, and control emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks. Herein, we discuss advanced tools including big data analytics, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, geographic information systems, remote sensing, molecular diagnostics, point-of-care testing, telemedicine, digital contact tracing, and early warning systems.

Results

These technologies enable real-time monitoring, the prediction of outbreak risks, early anomaly detection, rapid diagnosis, and targeted interventions during outbreaks. When integrated through collaborative partnerships, these strategies can significantly improve the speed and effectiveness of zoonotic disease control. However, several challenges persist, particularly in resource-limited settings, such as infrastructure limitations, costs, data integration and training requirements, and ethical implementation.

Conclusion

With strategic planning and coordinated efforts, modern technologies and solutions offer immense potential to bolster surveillance and outbreak responses, and serve as a critical resource against emerging zoonotic disease threats worldwide.

Unsupervised natural language processing in the identification of patients with suspected COVID-19 infection

Patients with post-COVID-19 syndrome benefit from health promotion programs. Their rapid identification is important for the cost-effective use of these programs. Traditional identification techniques perform poorly especially in pandemics. A descriptive observational study was carried out using 105,008 prior authorizations paid by a private health care provider with the application of an unsupervised natural language processing method by topic modeling to identify patients suspected of being infected by COVID-19. A total of 6 models were generated: 3 using the BERTopic algorithm and 3 Word2Vec models. The BERTopic model automatically creates disease groups. In the Word2Vec model, manual analysis of the first 100 cases of each topic was necessary to define the topics related to COVID-19. The BERTopic model with more than 1,000 authorizations per topic without word treatment selected more severe patients - average cost per prior authorizations paid of BRL 10,206 and total expenditure of BRL 20.3 million (5.4%) in 1,987 prior authorizations (1.9%). It had 70% accuracy compared to human analysis and 20% of cases with potential interest, all subject to analysis for inclusion in a health promotion program. It had an important loss of cases when compared to the traditional research model with structured language and identified other groups of diseases - orthopedic, mental and cancer. The BERTopic model served as an exploratory method to be used in case labeling and subsequent application in supervised models. The automatic identification of other diseases raises ethical questions about the treatment of health information by machine learning.

Harnessing the power of AI: Advanced deep learning models optimization for accurate SARS-CoV-2 forecasting

The pandemic has significantly affected many countries including the USA, UK, Asia, the Middle East and Africa region, and many other countries. Similarly, it has substantially affected Malaysia, making it crucial to develop efficient and precise forecasting tools for guiding public health policies and approaches. Our study is based on advanced deep-learning models to predict the SARS-CoV-2 cases. We evaluate the performance of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bi-directional LSTM, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), CNN-LSTM, Multilayer Perceptron, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). We trained these models and assessed them using a detailed dataset of confirmed cases, demographic data, and pertinent socio-economic factors. Our research aims to determine the most reliable and accurate model for forecasting SARS-CoV-2 cases in the region. We were able to test and optimize deep learning models to predict cases, with each model displaying diverse levels of accuracy and precision. A comprehensive evaluation of the models' performance discloses the most appropriate architecture for Malaysia's specific situation. This study supports ongoing efforts to combat the pandemic by offering valuable insights into the application of sophisticated deep-learning models for precise and timely SARS-CoV-2 case predictions. The findings hold considerable implications for public health decision-making, empowering authorities to create targeted and data-driven interventions to limit the virus's spread and minimize its effects on Malaysia's population.

Harnessing Machine Learning in Early COVID-19 Detection and Prognosis: A Comprehensive Systematic Review

During the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing faced limitations, prompting the exploration of machine learning (ML) alternatives for diagnosis and prognosis. Providing a comprehensive appraisal of such decision support systems and their use in COVID-19 management can aid the medical community in making informed decisions during the risk assessment of their patients, especially in low-resource settings. Therefore, the objective of this study was to systematically review the studies that predicted the diagnosis of COVID-19 or the severity of the disease using ML. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA), we conducted a literature search of MEDLINE (OVID), Scopus, EMBASE, and IEEE Xplore from January 1 to June 31, 2020. The outcomes were COVID-19 diagnosis or prognostic measures such as death, need for mechanical ventilation, admission, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. We included peer-reviewed observational studies, clinical trials, research letters, case series, and reports. We extracted data about the study's country, setting, sample size, data source, dataset, diagnostic or prognostic outcomes, prediction measures, type of ML model, and measures of diagnostic accuracy. Bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). This study was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), with the number CRD42020197109. The final records included for data extraction were 66. Forty-three (64%) studies used secondary data. The majority of studies were from Chinese authors (30%). Most of the literature (79%) relied on chest imaging for prediction, while the remainder used various laboratory indicators, including hematological, biochemical, and immunological markers. Thirteen studies explored predicting COVID-19 severity, while the rest predicted diagnosis. Seventy percent of the articles used deep learning models, while 30% used traditional ML algorithms. Most studies reported high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for the ML models (exceeding 90%). The overall concern about the risk of bias was "unclear" in 56% of the studies. This was mainly due to concerns about selection bias. ML may help identify COVID-19 patients in the early phase of the pandemic, particularly in the context of chest imaging. Although these studies reflect that these ML models exhibit high accuracy, the novelty of these models and the biases in dataset selection make using them as a replacement for the clinicians' cognitive decision-making questionable. Continued research is needed to enhance the robustness and reliability of ML systems in COVID-19 diagnosis and prognosis.

Combating Covid-19 using machine learning and deep learning: Applications, challenges, and future perspectives

COVID-19, a worldwide pandemic that has affected many people and thousands of individuals have died due to COVID-19, during the last two years. Due to the benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in X-ray image interpretation, sound analysis, diagnosis, patient monitoring, and CT image identification, it has been further researched in the area of medical science during the period of COVID-19. This study has assessed the performance and investigated different machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and combinations of various ML, DL, and AI approaches that have been employed in recent studies with diverse data formats to combat the problems that have arisen due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, this study shows the comparison among the stand-alone ML and DL-based research works regarding the COVID-19 issues with the combinations of ML, DL, and AI-based research works. After in-depth analysis and comparison, this study responds to the proposed research questions and presents the future research directions in this context. This review work will guide different research groups to develop viable applications based on ML, DL, and AI models, and will also guide healthcare institutes, researchers, and governments by showing them how these techniques can ease the process of tackling the COVID-19.

Korean dental hygiene students' perceptions and attitudes toward artificial intelligence: An online survey

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated Korean dental hygiene students' perceptions and attitudes toward artificial intelligence (AI) and aimed to identify needs for education to strengthen professional competencies.

METHODS

A 24-question online survey was conducted to the dental hygiene students from four Korean schools in 2021. The questionnaire included seven questions on basic characteristics and 17 AI-related questions on the student's attitudes toward AI, the confidence in AI, predictions about AI, and its future prospects. Responses were analyzed according to the frequencies and correlations between the participants' subjective level of knowledge about AI and questions using chi-square test.

RESULTS

Invitations were sent out to 1310 students and 800 (61.1%) participated. Note that 44.2% of participants were interested in AI, and 93.1% accessed AI-related information through the internet. Participants expressed lower confidence in AI's diagnosis (14.8%) and judgment (8.1%) than in those of humans, and 21.9% believed AI would replace their job. The proportions of participants with positive perceptions of the usefulness and the potential for improvement of AI in dentistry were 65.5% and 55.4%, respectively. Participants from schools who had existing AI knowledge expressed higher demands for AI-related content as compared to those who did not (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Although dental hygiene students expressed low level of confidence in AI, they were interested in AI and had positive views of its application and potential for improvement. However, the fact they had little AI-related information from dental hygiene curriculum strongly suggests the need for AI-related lectures in schools to prepare for the future.

Predicting the distribution of COVID-19 through CGAN-Taking Macau as an example

Machine learning (ML) is an innovative method that is widely used in data prediction. Predicting the COVID-19 distribution using ML is essential for urban security risk assessment and governance. This study uses conditional generative adversarial network (CGAN) to construct a method to predict the COVID-19 hotspot distribution through urban texture and business formats and establishes a relationship between urban elements and COVID-19 so that machines can automatically predict the epidemic hotspots in cities. Taking Macau as an example, this method is used to determine the correlation between the urban texture and business hotspots of Macau and the new epidemic hotspot clusters. Different types of samples afforded different epidemic prediction accuracies. The results show the following: (1) CGAN can accurately predict the distribution area of COVID-19, and the accuracy can exceed 70%. (2) The results of predicting the COVID-19 distribution through urban texture and POI data of hospitals and stations are the best, with an accuracy of more than 60% in experiments in different regions of Macau. (3) The proposed method can also predict other areas in the city that may be at risk of COVID-19 and help urban epidemic prevention and control.

Cardiovascular and Renal Comorbidities Included into Neural Networks Predict the Outcome in COVID-19 Patients Admitted to an Intensive Care Unit: Three-Center, Cross-Validation, Age- and Sex-Matched Study

Here, we performed a multicenter, age- and sex-matched study to compare the efficiency of various machine learning algorithms in the prediction of COVID-19 fatal outcomes and to develop sensitive, specific, and robust artificial intelligence tools for the prompt triage of patients with severe COVID-19 in the intensive care unit setting. In a challenge against other established machine learning algorithms (decision trees, random forests, extra trees, neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and gradient boosting: XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost) and multivariate logistic regression as a reference, neural networks demonstrated the highest sensitivity, sufficient specificity, and excellent robustness. Further, neural networks based on coronary artery disease/chronic heart failure, stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease, blood urea nitrogen, and C-reactive protein as the predictors exceeded 90% sensitivity and 80% specificity, reaching AUROC of 0.866 at primary cross-validation and 0.849 at secondary cross-validation on virtual samples generated by the bootstrapping procedure. These results underscore the impact of cardiovascular and renal comorbidities in the context of thrombotic complications characteristic of severe COVID-19. As aforementioned predictors can be obtained from the case histories or are inexpensive to be measured at admission to the intensive care unit, we suggest this predictor composition is useful for the triage of critically ill COVID-19 patients.

Assessment of regional economic restorability under the stress of COVID-19 using the new interval type-2 fuzzy ORESTE method

The economic implications from the COVID-19 crisis are not like anything people have ever experienced. As predictions indicated, it is not until the year 2025 may the global economy recover to the ideal situation as it was in 2020. Regions lacked of developing category is among the mostly affected regions, because the category includes weakly and averagely potential power. For supporting the decision of economic system recovery scientifically and accurately under the stress of COVID-19, one feasible solution is to assess the regional economic restorability by taking into account a variety of indicators, such as development foundation, industrial structure, labor forces, financial support and government's ability. This is a typical multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem with quantitative and qualitative criteria/indicator. To solve this problem, in this paper, an investigation is conducted to obtain 14 indicators affecting regional economic restorability, which form an indicator system. The interval type-2 fuzzy set (IT2FS) is an effective tool to express experts' subjective preference values (PVs) in the process of decision-making. First, some formulas are developed to convert quantitative PVs to IT2FSs. Second, an improved interval type-2 fuzzy ORESTE (IT2F-ORESTE) method based on distance and likelihood are developed to assess the regional economic restorability. Third, a case study is given to illustrate the method. Then, robust ranking results are acquired by performing a sensitivity analysis. Finally, some comparative analyses with other methods are conducted to demonstrate that the developed IT2F-ORESTE method can supporting the decision of economic system recovery scientifically and accurately.

A survey of COVID-19 detection and prediction approaches using mobile devices, AI, and telemedicine

Since 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has had an extremely high impact on all facets of the society and will potentially have an everlasting impact for years to come. In response to this, over the past years, there have been a significant number of research efforts on exploring approaches to combat COVID-19. In this paper, we present a survey of the current research efforts on using mobile Internet of Thing (IoT) devices, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and telemedicine for COVID-19 detection and prediction. We first present the background and then present current research in this field. Specifically, we present the research on COVID-19 monitoring and detection, contact tracing, machine learning based approaches, telemedicine, and security. We finally discuss the challenges and the future work that lay ahead in this field before concluding this paper.

A swarm-optimizer-assisted simulation and prediction model for emerging infectious diseases based on SEIR

Mechanism-driven models based on transmission dynamics and statistic models driven by public health data are two main methods for simulating and predicting emerging infectious diseases. In this paper, we intend to combine these two methods to develop a more comprehensive model for the simulation and prediction of emerging infectious diseases. First, we combine a standard epidemic dynamic, the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model with population migration. This model can provide a biological spread process for emerging infectious diseases. Second, to determine suitable parameters for the model, we propose a data-driven approach, in which the public health data and population migration data are assembled. Moreover, an objective function is defined to minimize the error based on these data. Third, based on the proposed model, we further develop a swarm-optimizer-assisted simulation and prediction method, which contains two modules. In the first module, we use a level-based learning swarm optimizer to optimize the parameters required in the epidemic mechanism. In the second module, the optimized parameters are used to predicate the spread of emerging infectious diseases. Finally, various experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model and method.

Modeling approaches for early warning and monitoring of pandemic situations as well as decision support

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of preparedness of many healthcare systems against pandemic situations. In response, many population-level computational modeling approaches have been proposed for predicting outbreaks, spatiotemporally forecasting disease spread, and assessing as well as predicting the effectiveness of (non-) pharmaceutical interventions. However, in several countries, these modeling efforts have only limited impact on governmental decision-making so far. In light of this situation, the review aims to provide a critical review of existing modeling approaches and to discuss the potential for future developments.

A comparison of conventional and advanced electroanalytical methods to detect SARS-CoV-2 virus: A concise review

Respiratory viruses are a serious threat to human wellbeing that can cause pandemic disease. As a result, it is critical to identify virus in a timely, sensitive, and precise manner. The present novel coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) disease outbreak has increased these concerns. The research of developing various methods for COVID-19 virus identification is one of the most rapidly growing research areas. This review article compares and addresses recent improvements in conventional and advanced electroanalytical approaches for detecting COVID-19 virus. The popular conventional methods such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR), loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), serology test, and computed tomography (CT) scan with artificial intelligence require specialized equipment, hours of processing, and specially trained staff. Many researchers, on the other hand, focused on the invention and expansion of electrochemical and/or bio sensors to detect SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that they could show a significant role in COVID-19 disease control. We attempted to meticulously summarize recent advancements, compare conventional and electroanalytical approaches, and ultimately discuss future prospective in the field. We hope that this review will be helpful to researchers who are interested in this interdisciplinary field and desire to develop more innovative virus detection methods.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico

Background

The intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) clusters in Mexico.

Methods

We present an integrated analysis of Aedes-borne diseases (ABDs), the local climate, and the socio-demographic profiles of 2469 municipalities in Mexico. We used SaTScan to detect spatial clusters and utilize the Pearson correlation coefficient, Randomized Dependence Coefficient, and SHapley Additive exPlanations to analyze the influence of socio-demographic and climatic factors on the prevalence of ABDs. We also compare six machine learning techniques, including XGBoost, decision tree, Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function kernel, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural network to predict risk factors of ABDs clusters.

Results

DENV is the most prevalent of the three diseases throughout Mexico, with nearly 60.6% of the municipalities reported having DENV cases. For some spatiotemporal clusters, the influence of socio-economic attributes is larger than the influence of climate attributes for predicting the prevalence of ABDs. XGBoost performs the best in terms of precision-measure for ABDs prevalence.

Conclusions

Both socio-demographic and climatic factors influence ABDs transmission in different regions of Mexico. Future studies should build predictive models supporting early warning systems to anticipate the time and location of ABDs outbreaks and determine the stand-alone influence of individual risk factors and establish causal mechanisms.

Forecasting daily Covid-19 cases in the world with a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model

The use of models to predict disease cases is common in epidemiology and related areas, in the context of Covid-19, both ARIMA and Neural Network models can be applied for purposes of optimized resource management, so the aim of this study is to capture the linear and non-linear structures of daily Covid-19 cases in the world by using a hybrid forecasting model. In summary, the proposed hybrid system methodology consists of two steps. In the first step, an ARIMA model is used to analyze the linear part of the problem. In the second step, a neural network model is developed to model the residuals of the ARIMA model, which would be the non-linear part of it. The neural network model was superior to the ARIMA when considering the capture of weekly seasonality and in two weeks, the combination of models with the capture of seasonality in two weeks provided a mixed model with good error metrics, that allows actions to be premeditated with greater certainty, such as increasing the number of nurses in a location, or the acceleration of vaccination campaigns to diminish a possible increase in the number of cases.

Who was at risk for COVID-19 late in the US pandemic? Insights from a population health machine learning model

Notable discrepancies in vulnerability to COVID-19 infection have been identified between specific population groups and regions in the USA. The purpose of this study was to estimate the likelihood of COVID-19 infection using a machine-learning algorithm that can be updated continuously based on health care data. Patient records were extracted for all COVID-19 nasal swab PCR tests performed within the Providence St. Joseph Health system from February to October of 2020. A total of 316,599 participants were included in this study, and approximately 7.7% (n = 24,358) tested positive for COVID-19. A gradient boosting model, LightGBM (LGBM), predicted risk of initial infection with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.819. Factors that predicted infection were cough, fever, being a member of the Hispanic or Latino community, being Spanish speaking, having a history of diabetes or dementia, and living in a neighborhood with housing insecurity. A model trained on sociodemographic, environmental, and medical history data performed well in predicting risk of a positive COVID-19 test. This model could be used to tailor education, public health policy, and resources for communities that are at the greatest risk of infection.

A composite ranking of risk factors for COVID-19 time-to-event data from a Turkish cohort

Having a complete and reliable list of risk factors from routine laboratory blood test for COVID-19 disease severity and mortality is important for patient care and hospital management. It is common to use meta-analysis to combine analysis results from different studies to make it more reproducible. In this paper, we propose to run multiple analyses on the same set of data to produce a more robust list of risk factors. With our time-to-event survival data, the standard survival analysis were extended in three directions. The first is to extend from tests and corresponding p-values to machine learning and their prediction performance. The second is to extend from single-variable to multiple-variable analysis. The third is to expand from analyzing time-to-decease data with death as the event of interest to analyzing time-to-hospital-release data to treat early recovery as a meaningful event as well. Our extension of the type of analyses leads to ten ranking lists. We conclude that 20 out of 30 factors are deemed to be reliably associated to faster-death or faster-recovery. Considering correlation among factors and evidenced by stepwise variable selection in random survival forest, 10 ~ 15 factors seem to be able to achieve the optimal prognosis performance. Our final list of risk factors contain calcium, white blood cell and neutrophils count, urea and creatine, d-dimer, red cell distribution widths, age, ferritin, glucose, lactate dehydrogenase, lymphocyte, basophils, anemia related factors (hemoglobin, hematocrit, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration), sodium, potassium, eosinophils, and aspartate aminotransferase.

Predictive Classifier for Cardiovascular Disease Based on Stacking Model Fusion

The etiology of cardiovascular disease is still an unsolved world problem, and high morbidity, disability, and mortality are the main characteristics of cardiovascular diseases. There is, therefore, a need for effective and rapid early prediction of likely outcomes in patients with cardiovascular disease using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The Internet of Things (IoT) is becoming a catalyst for enhancing the capabilities of AI applications. Data are collected through IoT sensors and analyzed and predicted using machine learning (ML). Existing traditional ML models do not handle data inequities well and have relatively low model prediction accuracy. To address this problem, considering the data observation mechanism and training methods of different algorithms, this paper proposes an ensemble framework based on stacking model fusion, from Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) (10 classifiers to select the optimal base learners). In order to avoid the overfitting phenomenon generated by the base learners, we use the Logistic Regression (LR) simple linear classifier as the meta learner. We validated the proposed algorithm using a fused Heart Dataset from several UCI machine learning repositories and another publicly available Heart Attack Dataset, and compared it with 10 single classifier models. The experimental results show that the proposed stacking classifier outperforms other classifiers in terms of accuracy and applicability.

A machine learning approach to differentiate between COVID-19 and influenza infection using synthetic infection and immune response data

Data analysis is widely used to generate new insights into human disease mechanisms and provide better treatment methods. In this work, we used the mechanistic models of viral infection to generate synthetic data of influenza and COVID-19 patients. We then developed and validated a supervised machine learning model that can distinguish between the two infections. Influenza and COVID-19 are contagious respiratory illnesses that are caused by different pathogenic viruses but appeared with similar initial presentations. While having the same primary signs COVID-19 can produce more severe symptoms, illnesses, and higher mortality. The predictive model performance was externally evaluated by the ROC AUC metric (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) on 100 virtual patients from each cohort and was able to achieve at least AUC = 91% using our multiclass classifier. The current investigation highlighted the ability of machine learning models to accurately identify two different diseases based on major components of viral infection and immune response. The model predicted a dominant role for viral load and productively infected cells through the feature selection process.

Agent-based modeling and life cycle dynamics of COVID-19-related online collective actions

The outbreak of COVID-19 has greatly threatened global public health and produced social problems, which includes relative online collective actions. Based on the life cycle law, focusing on the life cycle process of COVID-19 online collective actions, we carried out both macro-level analysis (big data mining) and micro-level behaviors (Agent-Based Modeling) on pandemic-related online collective actions. We collected 138 related online events with macro-level big data characteristics, and used Agent-Based Modeling to capture micro-level individual behaviors of netizens. We set two kinds of movable agents, Hots (events) and Netizens (individuals), which behave smartly and autonomously. Based on multiple simulations and parametric traversal, we obtained the optimal parameter solution. Under the optimal solutions, we repeated simulations by ten times, and took the mean values as robust outcomes. Simulation outcomes well match the real big data of life cycle trends, and validity and robustness can be achieved. According to multiple criteria (spans, peaks, ratios, and distributions), the fitness between simulations and real big data has been substantially supported. Therefore, our Agent-Based Modeling well grasps the micro-level mechanisms of real-world individuals (netizens), based on which we can predict individual behaviors of netizens and big data trends of specific online events. Based on our model, it is feasible to model, calculate, and even predict evolutionary dynamics and life cycles trends of online collective actions. It facilitates public administrations and social governance.

Data-Driven Analytics Leveraging Artificial Intelligence in the Era of COVID-19: An Insightful Review of Recent Developments

This paper presents the role of artificial intelligence (AI) and other latest technologies that were employed to fight the recent pandemic (i.e., novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19)). These technologies assisted the early detection/diagnosis, trends analysis, intervention planning, healthcare burden forecasting, comorbidity analysis, and mitigation and control, to name a few. The key-enablers of these technologies was data that was obtained from heterogeneous sources (i.e., social networks (SN), internet of (medical) things (IoT/IoMT), cellular networks, transport usage, epidemiological investigations, and other digital/sensing platforms). To this end, we provide an insightful overview of the role of data-driven analytics leveraging AI in the era of COVID-19. Specifically, we discuss major services that AI can provide in the context of COVID-19 pandemic based on six grounds, (i) AI role in seven different epidemic containment strategies (a.k.a non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)), (ii) AI role in data life cycle phases employed to control pandemic via digital solutions, (iii) AI role in performing analytics on heterogeneous types of data stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, (iv) AI role in the healthcare sector in the context of COVID-19 pandemic, (v) general-purpose applications of AI in COVID-19 era, and (vi) AI role in drug design and repurposing (e.g., iteratively aligning protein spikes and applying three/four-fold symmetry to yield a low-resolution candidate template) against COVID-19. Further, we discuss the challenges involved in applying AI to the available data and privacy issues that can arise from personal data transitioning into cyberspace. We also provide a concise overview of other latest technologies that were increasingly applied to limit the spread of the ongoing pandemic. Finally, we discuss the avenues of future research in the respective area. This insightful review aims to highlight existing AI-based technological developments and future research dynamics in this area.

Spreading of Infections on Network Models: Percolation Clusters and Random Trees

We discuss network models as a general and suitable framework for describing the spreading of an infectious disease within a population. We discuss two types of finite random structures as building blocks of the network, one based on percolation concepts and the second one on random tree structures. We study, as is done for the SIR model, the time evolution of the number of susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R) individuals, in the presence of a spreading infectious disease, by incorporating a healing mechanism for infecteds. In addition, we discuss in detail the implementation of lockdowns and how to simulate them. For percolation clusters, we present numerical results based on site percolation on a square lattice, while for random trees we derive new analytical results, which are illustrated in detail with a few examples. It is argued that such hierarchical networks can complement the well-known SIR model in most circumstances. We illustrate these ideas by revisiting USA COVID-19 data.

Within Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Humans: Modeling Immune Responses and Antiviral Treatments

In December 2019, a newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus was emerged from China and propagated worldwide as a pandemic, resulting in about 3–5% mortality. Mathematical models can provide useful scientific insights about transmission patterns and targets for drug development. In this study, we propose a within-host mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection considering innate and adaptive immune responses. We analyze the equilibrium points of the proposed model and obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number. We then numerically show the existence of a transcritical bifurcation. The proposed model is calibrated to real viral load data of two COVID-19 patients. Using the estimated parameters, we perform global sensitivity analysis with respect to the peak of viral load. Finally, we study the efficacy of antiviral drugs and vaccination on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results suggest that blocking the virus production from infected cells can be an effective target for antiviral drug development. Finally, it is found that vaccination is more effective intervention as compared to the antiviral treatments.