Measles-mumps vaccination in the FRG: an empirical analysis after 14 years of use. I. Efficacy and analysis of vaccine failures

Neurological sequelae of vaccines

IMPORTANCE

Vaccines are a safe and efficacious way to prevent a variety of infectious diseases. Over the course of their existence, vaccines have prevented immeasurable morbidity and mortality in humans. Typical symptoms of systemic immune activation are common after vaccines and may include local soreness, myalgias, nausea, and malaise. In the vast majority of cases, the severity of the infectious disease outweighs the risk of mild adverse reactions to vaccines. Rarely, vaccines may be associated with neurological sequela that ranges in severity from headache to transverse myelitis, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, and Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS). Often, a causal link cannot be confirmed, and it remains unclear if disease onset is directly related to a recent vaccination.

OBSERVATIONS

This review serves to summarize reported neurologic sequelae of commonly used vaccines. It will also serve to discuss potential pathogenesis. It is important to note that many adverse events or reactions to vaccines are self-reported into databases, and causal proof cannot be obtained.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Recognition of reported adverse effects of vaccines plays an important role in public health and education. Early identification of these symptoms can allow for rapid diagnosis and potential treatment. Vaccines are a safe option for prevention of infectious diseases.

Current Status of Mumps Virus Infection: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Vaccine

Mumps is an important childhood infectious disease caused by mumps virus (MuV). We reviewed the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and vaccine development of mumps. Previous studies were identified using the key words “mumps” and “epidemiology”, “pathogenesis” or “vaccine” in MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. We excluded the articles that were not published in the English language, manuscripts without abstracts, and opinion articles from the review. The number of cases caused by MuV decreased steeply after the introduction of the mumps vaccine worldwide. In recent years, a global resurgence of mumps cases in developed countries and cases of aseptic meningitis caused by some mumps vaccine strains have renewed the importance of MuV infection worldwide. The performance of mumps vaccination has become an important issue for controlling mumps infections. Vaccine development and routine vaccination are still effective measures to globally reduce the incidence of mumps infections. During outbreaks, a third of MMR vaccine is recommended for groups of persons determined by public authorities.

The influence of measles vaccination on the incidence of otosclerosis in Germany

The pathologic process of otosclerosis is characterized by an inflammatory lytic phase followed by an abnormal bone remodeling at very specific sites of predilection. There is a clear genetic predisposition with about half of all cases occurring in families with more than one affected member. Females are affected more frequently than males with an approximate 2:1 ratio. N, H, and F measles proteins as well as measles virus RNA have been demonstrated in osteoblasts, chondroblasts, and macrophages of the inflammatory phase of the disease. These observations merely show an association between measles viruses and otosclerosis. In the present study, we tried to prove that there is a causal relationship: voluntary measles vaccination has been available in Germany since 1974. In the absence of official data, we reconstructed the rate of vaccination coverage between 1974 and 2004 using information from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI, Berlin) and from the literature. From the German Federal Office of Statistics, we received the data of 64,112 patients who had been hospitalized between 1993 and 2004 and in whom otosclerosis (ICD-9: 387; ICD-10: H80) had been confirmed. We calculated the effect of measles vaccination on the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the period from 1993 to 2004 in Germany. For this purpose, we divided the female and male otosclerosis patients treated as inpatients each year in the observation period into two age groups: those up to 25 years, who had in most cases been vaccinated (designated below as "vaccinated patients") and those over 25 years who mostly could not have been vaccinated (designated below as "unvaccinated patients"). We calculated the incidence of otosclerosis requiring inpatient treatment for the two age groups in each year in the period of observation. For external validation of the study results, the same analysis was carried out in all patients who received inpatient treatment for otitis media in the same period. Between 1993 and 2004 the incidence of hospital treatments for otosclerosis decreased to a significantly greater extent in the vaccinated patients than in the unvaccinated patients. The decline is much greater in men than in women. A comparable effect cannot be demonstrated in patients with otitis media. The results indicate that measles vaccination in Germany has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of hospital treatments for otosclerosis in the vaccinated age groups. We conclude that there is a causal relationship between measles viruses and the development of otosclerosis.

An outbreak of mumps in the metropolitan area of Walsall, UK

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology of excessive mumps cases during the year 2000, within the metropolitan area of Walsall, UK; to assess the impact of the mumps outbreak on morbidity; and to inform future communicable disease control strategy.

METHODS

Demographic records, school attendance, uptake of the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, and mumps-associated admission to hospital, were reviewed for all Walsall residents diagnosed and notified with mumps during the year 2000.

RESULTS

There were 200 mumps notifications in 2000 (76.6 per 100,000), representing the highest incidence in England. Only 91 of the notified cases were salivary antibody positive for mumps IgM, and 32 were negative, although 77 were not tested. Since 1990, annual totals have never previously exceeded 20. Over 90% of patients were <20 years old, with a peak age group of 10-14 years; 88% attended schools located within Walsall. The pattern of spread suggested that the outbreak proceeded through schools from north to south in the more deprived western half of the metropolitan area. Most cases (136, 68%) had received one (99, 49.5%) or two (37, 18.5%) doses of MMR vaccine; cases > or =20 years old had never received MMR. Six cases (aged 4-14 years) were admitted to hospital, all with a successful outcome, including one male with meningitis and one female with pancreatitis. Current uptake of the MMR vaccine at 24 months has dropped to below 90% in recent years, as in most parts of the UK.

CONCLUSIONS

Future mumps outbreaks in schools, and among older age groups, can be predicted, since most older children and young adults have received only one dose of MMR vaccine or no vaccination at all. Primary vaccine failure is well described in mumps, and cases during outbreaks can include recipients of two MMR vaccine doses. It was fortunate that no severe morbidity was associated with this outbreak (prior to MMR, two to four mumps deaths occurred annually in England and Wales). Measures to restore the uptake of MMR to the previous levels of above 90-95% will be necessary to reduce the risk of the mumps virus circulating within communities. Older children are susceptible, and it may be advisable to ensure second-dose MMR uptake while they are still at or when they leave school, or when they enter college, university or the military.

Estimation of the time-dependent vaccine efficacy from a measles epidemic

We present a method to estimate the time-dependent vaccine efficacy from the cohort-specific vaccination coverage and from data on the vaccination status of cases and apply it to a measles epidemic in Germany which involved 529 cases, 88 of whom were vaccinated and 370 unvaccinated (for the remaining 71 cases the vaccination status is unknown). Our epidemiological model takes into account that maternal antibodies prevent successful vaccination and that vaccine immunity may be lost over time. Model parameters are estimated from the data using maximum likelihood. Vaccination coverage, as determined in school surveys, ranged from 27.6 per cent for the cohort born in 1974 to 85 per cent for the 1986 cohort, which is far too low to prevent measles transmission. Cohorts for which no school surveys were performed are omitted from analysis. Thus, sufficient data are available for only 282 cases, 69 of whom are vaccinated. According to our estimates, measles vaccinations provided no immunity before 1978 (95 per cent CI: 0 to 47 percent), for the period 1978-1982, the estimated vaccine efficacy was 80 percent (95 percent CI: 67 to 89 percent), and for 1982-1990 it was 97 percent (95 percent CI: 93 to 99 percent). After 1990, the estimated value dropped to 89 per cent, but its confidence interval widely overlaps with that of the previous period (95 percent CI: 74 to 97 percent). Loss of immunity was estimated to be zero (95 percent CI: 0 to 0.003/year). Several sensitivity analyses were performed with respect to the model assumptions. A modified model which assumed constant efficacy at all vaccination times yielded a high estimate of 96 per cent (95 percent CI: 92 to 98 percent) for primary vaccine efficacy but also a high loss rate of immunity of 0.007/year (95 percent CI: 0.001 to 0.012) to explain the high fraction of vaccinated cases among older individuals. The likelihood score value is however significantly inferior compared to the score value of the model with time-dependent vaccine efficacy.

Twice vaccinated recipients are better protected against epidemic measles than are single dose recipients of measles containing vaccine

OBJECTIVE

To study measles risk after revaccination.

DESIGN

A population-based case-control study during an epidemic season.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Relative serologically confirmed measles risk.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

153 vaccinated cases, mostly from rural areas, were serologically confirmed as measles at the central laboratory in 1988-89. A randomly selected group of 453 controls from either municipalities of vaccinated cases or from areas where measles attack rate was > 600/10(5), was identified via the population registry. Vaccination and measles histories of cases and controls were determined from official vaccination cards.

RESULTS

Once and twice vaccinated had crude relative risk 15.6 and 2.3 compared with thrice vaccinated. When cases who had received their first vaccination at less than 14 months of age were omitted from analysis, once vaccinated had 4.0 (95% CI 1.2, 16.6) times higher age adjusted measles risk compared with twice vaccinated. When, omission was extended to cases from one particular municipality where even revaccinees had high measles risk during an explosive outbreak the corresponding risk ratio was 17.8 (2.8, 67.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Twice vaccinated have better protection against epidemic measles compared with single dose recipients.