Using global maps to predict the risk of dengue in Europe

A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk

BACKGROUND

Aedes (Stegomyia)-borne diseases are an expanding global threat, but gaps in surveillance make comprehensive and comparable risk assessments challenging. Geostatistical models combine data from multiple locations and use links with environmental and socioeconomic factors to make predictive risk maps. Here we systematically review past approaches to map risk for different Aedes-borne arboviruses from local to global scales, identifying differences and similarities in the data types, covariates, and modelling approaches used.

METHODS

We searched on-line databases for predictive risk mapping studies for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever with no geographical or date restrictions. We included studies that needed to parameterise or fit their model to real-world epidemiological data and make predictions to new spatial locations of some measure of population-level risk of viral transmission (e.g. incidence, occurrence, suitability, etc.).

RESULTS

We found a growing number of arbovirus risk mapping studies across all endemic regions and arboviral diseases, with a total of 176 papers published 2002-2022 with the largest increases shortly following major epidemics. Three dominant use cases emerged: (i) global maps to identify limits of transmission, estimate burden and assess impacts of future global change, (ii) regional models used to predict the spread of major epidemics between countries and (iii) national and sub-national models that use local datasets to better understand transmission dynamics to improve outbreak detection and response. Temperature and rainfall were the most popular choice of covariates (included in 50% and 40% of studies respectively) but variables such as human mobility are increasingly being included. Surprisingly, few studies (22%, 31/144) robustly tested combinations of covariates from different domains (e.g. climatic, sociodemographic, ecological, etc.) and only 49% of studies assessed predictive performance via out-of-sample validation procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

Here we show that approaches to map risk for different arboviruses have diversified in response to changing use cases, epidemiology and data availability. We identify key differences in mapping approaches between different arboviral diseases, discuss future research needs and outline specific recommendations for future arbovirus mapping.

A Systematic Review on Modeling Methods and Influential Factors for Mapping Dengue-Related Risk in Urban Settings

Dengue fever is an acute mosquito-borne disease that mostly spreads within urban or semi-urban areas in warm climate zones. The dengue-related risk map is one of the most practical tools for executing effective control policies, breaking the transmission chain, and preventing disease outbreaks. Mapping risk at a small scale, such as at an urban level, can demonstrate the spatial heterogeneities in complicated built environments. This review aims to summarize state-of-the-art modeling methods and influential factors in mapping dengue fever risk in urban settings. Data were manually extracted from five major academic search databases following a set of querying and selection criteria, and a total of 28 studies were analyzed. Twenty of the selected papers investigated the spatial pattern of dengue risk by epidemic data, whereas the remaining eight papers developed an entomological risk map as a proxy for potential dengue burden in cities or agglomerated urban regions. The key findings included: (1) Big data sources and emerging data-mining techniques are innovatively employed for detecting hot spots of dengue-related burden in the urban context; (2) Bayesian approaches and machine learning algorithms have become more popular as spatial modeling tools for predicting the distribution of dengue incidence and mosquito presence; (3) Climatic and built environmental variables are the most common factors in making predictions, though the effects of these factors vary with the mosquito species; (4) Socio-economic data may be a better representation of the huge heterogeneity of risk or vulnerability spatial distribution on an urban scale. In conclusion, for spatially assessing dengue-related risk in an urban context, data availability and the purpose for mapping determine the analytical approaches and modeling methods used. To enhance the reliabilities of predictive models, sufficient data about dengue serotyping, socio-economic status, and spatial connectivity may be more important for mapping dengue-related risk in urban settings for future studies.

Dengue risk zone mapping of Thiruvananthapuram district, India: a comparison of the AHP and F-AHP methods

Dengue fever, which is spread by Aedes mosquitoes, has claimed many lives in Kerala, with the Thiruvananthapuram district bearing the brunt of the toll. This study aims to demarcate the dengue risk zones in Thiruvananthapuram district using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the fuzzy-AHP (F-AHP) methods. For the risk modelling, geo-environmental factors (normalized difference vegetation index, land surface temperature, topographic wetness index, land use/land cover types, elevation, normalized difference built-up index) and demographic factors (household density, population density) have been utilized. The ArcGIS 10.8 and ERDAS Imagine 8.4 software tools have been used to derive the risk zone maps. The area of the risk maps is classified into five zones. The dengue risk zone maps were validated using dengue case data collected from the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme portal. From the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values, it is proved that the F-AHP method (AUC value of 0.971) has comparatively more prediction capability than the AHP method (AUC value of 0.954) in demarcating the dengue risk zones. Also, based on the comparison of the risk zone map with actual case data, it was confirmed that around 82.87% of the dengue cases occurred in the very high and high-risk zones, thus proving the efficacy of the model. According to the dengue risk map prepared using the F-AHP model, 9.09% of the area of Thiruvananthapuram district is categorized as very high risk. The prepared dengue risk maps will be helpful for decision-makers, staff with the health, and disaster management departments in adopting effective measures to prevent the risks of dengue spread and thereby minimize loss of life.

Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review

Background and Aim: Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) constitute a global problem for humans and animals. Knowledge related to the spatial distribution of various species of vectors and their relationship with the environment where they develop is essential to understand the current risk of VBDs and for planning surveillance and control strategies in the face of future threats. This study aimed to identify models, variables, and factors that may influence the emergence and resurgence of VBDs and how these factors can affect spatial local and global distribution patterns. Materials and Methods: A systematic review was designed based on identification, screening, selection, and inclusion described in the research protocols according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guide. A literature search was performed in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and SciELO using the following search strategy: Article type: Original research, Language: English, Publishing period: 2010–2020, Search terms: Spatial analysis, spatial models, VBDs, climate, ecologic, life cycle, climate variability, vector-borne, vector, zoonoses, species distribution model, and niche model used in different combinations with "AND" and "OR." Results: The complexity of the interactions between climate, biotic/abiotic variables, and non-climate factors vary considerably depending on the type of disease and the particular location. VBDs are among the most studied types of illnesses related to climate and environmental aspects due to their high disease burden, extended presence in tropical and subtropical areas, and high susceptibility to climate and environment variations. Conclusion: It is difficult to generalize our knowledge of VBDs from a geospatial point of view, mainly because every case is inherently independent in variable selection, geographic coverage, and temporal extension. It can be inferred from predictions that as global temperatures increase, so will the potential trend toward extreme events. Consequently, it will become a public health priority to determine the role of climate and environmental variations in the incidence of infectious diseases. Our analysis of the information, as conducted in this work, extends the review beyond individual cases to generate a series of relevant observations applicable to different models.

Incentivizing optimal risk map use for Triatoma infestans surveillance in urban environments

In Arequipa, Peru, a large-scale vector control campaign has successfully reduced urban infestations of the Chagas disease vector, Triatoma infestans. In addition to preventing new infections with Trypanosoma cruzi (etiological agent of Chagas disease), the campaign produced a wealth of information about the distribution and density of vector infestations. We used these data to create vector infestation risk maps for the city in order to target the last few remaining infestations, which are unevenly distributed and difficult to pinpoint. Our maps, which are provided on a mobile app, display color-coded, individual house-level estimates of T. infestans infestation risk. Entomologic surveillance personnel can use the maps to select homes to inspect based on estimated risk of infestation, as well as keep track of which parts of a given neighborhood they have inspected to ensure even surveillance throughout the zone. However, the question then becomes, how do we encourage surveillance personnel to actually use these two functionalities of the risk map? As such, we carried out a series of rolling trials to test different incentive schemes designed to encourage the following two behaviors by entomologic surveillance personnel in Arequipa: (i) preferential inspections of homes shown as high risk on the maps, and (ii) even surveillance across the geographical distribution of a given area, which we term, 'spatial coverage.' These two behaviors together constituted what we termed, 'optimal map use.' We found that several incentives resulted in one of the two target behaviors, but just one incentive scheme based on the game of poker resulted in optimal map use. This poker-based incentive structure may be well-suited to improve entomological surveillance activities and other complex multi-objective tasks.

Spatial Analysis of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Europe: A Scoping Review

Mosquito-borne infections are increasing in endemic areas and previously unaffected regions. In 2020, the notification rate for Dengue was 0.5 cases per 100,000 population, and for Chikungunya <0.1/100,000. In 2019, the rate for Malaria was 1.3/100,000, and for West Nile Virus, 0.1/100,000. Spatial analysis is increasingly used in surveillance and epidemiological investigation, but reviews about their use in this research topic are scarce. We identify and describe the methodological approaches used to investigate the distribution and ecological determinants of mosquito-borne infections in Europe. Relevant literature was extracted from PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from inception until October 2021 and analysed according to PRISMA-ScR protocol. We identified 110 studies. Most used geographical correlation analysis (n = 50), mainly applying generalised linear models, and the remaining used spatial cluster detection (n = 30) and disease mapping (n = 30), mainly conducted using frequentist approaches. The most studied infections were Dengue (n = 32), Malaria (n = 26), Chikungunya (n = 26), and West Nile Virus (n = 24), and the most studied ecological determinants were temperature (n = 39), precipitation (n = 24), water bodies (n = 14), and vegetation (n = 11). Results from this review may support public health programs for mosquito-borne disease prevention and may help guide future research, as we recommended various good practices for spatial epidemiological studies.

Trade-off between climatic and human population impacts on Aedes aegypti life history shapes its geographic distribution

The annual death statistics due to vector-borne diseases transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes cause a still growing concern for the public health in the affected regions. An improved understanding of how climatic and population changes impact the spread of Aedes aegypti will help estimate the future populations exposure and vulnerability, and is essential to the improvement of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically well-investigated process-based mathematical model based on the life cycle of the mosquito to assess how climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)) and population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)) will affect the growth and potential distribution of this mosquito in China. Our results show that the risk area is predicted to expand considerably, increasing up to 21.46% and 24.75% of China's land area in 2050 and 2070, respectively, and the new added area lies mainly in the east and center of China. The population in the risk area grows substantially up to 2050 and then drops down steadily. However, these predicted changes vary noticeably among different combinations between RCPs and SSPs with the RCP2.6*SSP4 yielding the most favorable scenario in 2070, representing approximately 14.11% of China's land area and 113 cities at risk, which is slightly lower compared to 2019. Our results further reveal that there is a significant trade-off between climatic and human population impacts on the spreading of Aedes aegypti, possibly leading to an overestimation (underestimation) in sparsely (densely) populated areas if the populations impact on the mosquito's life history is unaccounted for. These results suggest that both climate and population changes are crucial factors in the formation of the populations exposure to Aedes-borne virus transmission in China, however, a reduced population growth rate may slow down the spread of this mosquito by effectively counteracting the climate warming impacts.

Community Knowledge and Attitudes about the Transmission of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever and Its Relationship to Prevention Behaviour in Palembang, South Sumatra, Indonesia

BACKGROUND: PSN 3 M Plus is a long-running program in Indonesia for the prevention and control of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). AIM: This study aimed to determine the knowledge, behavior, attitudes, and beliefs of the community toward PSN 3 M Plus in preventing and controlling the spread of DHF. METHODS: A cluster random sampling method was used to recruit 200 respondents in endemic areas and 100 respondents in sporadic locations of Indonesia from August 2020 to February 2021. The respondents were interviewed directly by interviewers and the relationships between demographics and characteristics with the practice of PSN 3M Plus prevention behavior on the incidence of DHF were analyzed. RESULTS: Most respondents had good knowledge regarding the cause of DHF. Although respondents recognized and understood the dangers of and how to control DHF, most did not follow PSN 3 M Plus and believed that fogging was the most effective control measure. There was a significant relationship between the characteristics of the respondents in terms of education, occupation, and attitude on vector control practice. CONCLUSION: Although community environmental modifications can be a cost-effective approach to reduce the incidence of DHF, there is a need to raise public awareness regarding preventive vector control measures as good knowledge does not guarantee good compliance with PSN 3M Plus recommendations.

Endemicity of Dengue with Density Figure and Maya Index in Bengkulu City, Indonesia

BACKGROUND: One of the factors contributing to dengue’s endemicity is the density of the dengue vector, namely, Aedes aegypti as the primary vector and Aedes albopictus as the secondary vector. Bentiring and Kandang Limun villages are high endemic areas of dengue. AIM: This study aimed to determine the relationship between dengue endemicity and density figure (DF) and Maya index (MI) in Bentiring and Kandang Limun villages, Bengkulu city. METHODS: This study used a cross-sectional design. The sampling technique used proportionate stratified sampling. The sampling refers to the guidelines for dengue entomology surveys according to the WHO 1999 criteria. A total of 400 ovitraps were installed, 200 ovitraps inside the house and 200 ovitraps outside the house. RESULTS: The results showed that Bentiring and Kandang Limun villages had a high risk of dengue transmission based on entomological parameters, namely, ovitrap index (OI) 56% and 55% (DF 6), house index (HI) 45% and 44% (DF 6), container index (CI) 23% and 23% (DF 6), and BI 96% and 120% (DF 7 and 8). The areas have a high risk of dengue transmission based on the MI 71% and 76%, respectively. There is a relationship between dengue endemicity and entomological index in Bentiring and Kandang Limun villages, Bengkulu city, with a significance value (p = 0.000) and a powerful correlation (r = 1.000). CONCLUSION: There is a relationship between dengue endemicity and the MI in Bentiring village and Kandang Limun village, Bengkulu city, with a significance value (p = 0.014 and 0.058) and a powerful correlation (r = 0.920 and r = 1.000), respectively. The entomological index and DF are predictors for dengue prevention and control environment to minimize mosquito breeding sites and reduce disease transmission.

Modeling spatial pattern of dengue in North Central Mexico using survey data and logistic regression

Dengue is a major public health concern mainly in tropical and subtropical environments worldwide. Despite several attempts to prevent this disease occurring in tropical regions of Mexico, it has not yet been controlled. This work focused on spatial modeling of confirmed dengue fever cases that occurred during the period 2010-2014 in the Huasteca Potosina region of Mexico. Multivariable Logistic Regression Modeling (MLRM) was used to determine the relationship between explanatory variables and the presence/absence of dengue. Model performance was evaluated using the area under curve (AUC) of the relative operating characteristic (ROC); AUC > 0.95. A high spatial resolution map was created to reveal the most probable patterns of dengue risk. Our results can be used for targeted control and prevention programs at local and regional levels. This methodology can be applied to other major diseases that are spatially distributed in accordance with environmental factors.

Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation

Europeans are not only exposed to direct effects from climate change, but also vulnerable to indirect effects from infectious disease, many of which are climate sensitive, which is of concern because of their epidemic potential. Climatic conditions have facilitated vector-borne disease outbreaks like chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile fever and have contributed to a geographic range expansion of tick vectors that transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Extreme precipitation events have caused waterborne outbreaks and longer summer seasons have contributed to increases in foodborne diseases. Under the Green Deal, The European Union aims to support climate change health policy, in order to be better prepared for the next health security threat, particularly in the aftermath of the traumatic COVID-19 experience. To bolster this policy process we discuss climate change-related hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to infectious disease and describe observed impacts, projected risks, with policy entry points for adaptation to reduce these risks or avoid them altogether.

SAR of novel benzothiazoles targeting an allosteric pocket of DENV and ZIKV NS2B/NS3 proteases

In recent years, dengue virus (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV), both mosquito-borne members of the Flaviviridae family, have emerged as intercontinental health issues since their vectors have spread from their tropical origins to temperate climate zones due to climate change and increasing globalization. DENV and ZIKV are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses, whose genomes consist of three structural (capsid, membrane precursor, envelope) and seven non-structural (NS) proteins, all of which are initially expressed as a single precursor polyprotein. For virus maturation, the polyprotein processing is accomplished by host proteases and the viral NS2B/NS3 protease complex, whose inhibitors have been shown to be effective antiviral agents with loss of viral pathogenicity. In this work, we elucidate new structure-activity relationships of benzo[d]thiazole-based allosteric NS2B/NS3 inhibitors. We developed a new series of Y-shaped inhibitors, which, with its larger hydrophobic contact surface, should bind to previously unaddressed regions of the allosteric NS2B/NS3 binding pocket. By scaffold-hopping, we varied the benzo[d]thiazole core and identified benzofuran as a new lead scaffold shifting the selectivity of initially ZIKV-targeting inhibitors to higher activities towards the DENV protease. In addition, we were able to increase the ligand efficiency from 0.27 to 0.41 by subsequent inhibitor truncation and identified N-(5,6-dihydroxybenzo[d]thiazol-2-yl)-4-iodobenzamide as a novel sub-micromolar NS2B/NS3 inhibitor. Utilizing cell-based assays, we could prove the antiviral activity in cellulo. Overall, we report new series of sub-micromolar allosteric DENV and ZIKV inhibitors with good efficacy profile in terms of cytotoxicity and protease inhibition selectivity.

Enhancement of Temephos and Deltamethrin Toxicity by Petroselinum crispum Oil and its Main Constituents Against Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

Previous work presented the profound antimosquito potential of Petroselinum crispum essential oil (PEO) against either the pyrethroid-susceptible or resistant strains of Aedes aegypti. This plant oil also inhibited the activity of acetylcholinesterase and mixed-function oxidases significantly, thus suggesting its potential as a synergist for improving mosquitocidal efficacy of insecticidal formulations. This study investigated the chemical composition, larvicidal activity, and potential synergism with synthetic insecticides of PEO and its main compounds for the purpose of interacting with insecticide resistance in mosquito vectors. The chemical profile of PEO, obtained by GC-MS analysis, showed a total of 17 bioactive compounds, accounting for 99.09% of the whole oil, with the most dominant constituents being thymol (74.57%), p-cymene (10.73%), and γ-terpinene (8.34%). All PEO constituents exhibited promising larvicidal effects, with LC50 values ranging from 19.47 to 59.75 ppm against Ae. aegypti, in both the pyrethroid-susceptible and resistant strains. Furthermore, combination-based bioassays revealed that PEO, thymol, p-cymene, and γ-terpinene enhanced the efficacy of temephos and deltamethrin significantly. The most effective synergist with temephos was PEO, which reduced LC50 values to 2.73, 4.94, and 3.28 ppb against MCM-S, PMD-R, and UPK-R, respectively, with synergism ratio (SR) values of 1.33, 1.38, and 2.12, respectively. The best synergist with deltamethrin also was PEO, which reduced LC50 values against MCM-S, PMD-R, and UPK-R to 0.008, 0.18, and 2.49 ppb, respectively, with SR values of 21.25, 9.00, and 4.06, respectively. This research promoted the potential for using essential oil and its principal constituents as not only alternative larvicides, but also attractive synergists for enhancing efficacy of existing conventional insecticides.

Environmental drivers, climate change and emergent diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and their vectors in southern Europe: A systematic review

Mosquito borne diseases are a group of infections that affect humans. Emerging or reemerging diseases are those that (re)occur in regions, groups or hosts that were previously free from these diseases: dengue virus; chikungunya virus; Zika virus; West Nile fever and malaria. In Europe, these infections are mostly imported; however, due to the presence of competent mosquitoes and the number of trips both to and from endemic areas, these pathogens are potentially emergent or re-emergent. Present and future climatic conditions, as well as meteorological, environmental and demographic aspects are risk factors for the distribution of different vectors and/or diseases. This review aimed to identify and analyze the existing literature on the transmission of mosquito borne diseases and those factors potentially affecting their transmission risk of them in six southern European countries with similar environmental conditions: Croatia, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. In addition, we would identify those factors potentially affecting the (re)introduction or spread of mosquito vectors. This task has been undertaken with a focus on the environmental and climatic factors, including the effects of climate change. We undertook a systematic review of the vectors, diseases and their associations with climactic and environmental factors in European countries of the Mediterranean region. We followed the PRISMA guidelines and used explicit and systematic methods to identify, select and critically evaluate the studies which were relevant to the topic. We identified 1302 articles in the first search of the databases. Of those, 160 were selected for full-text review. The final data set included 61 articles published between 2000 and 2017.39.3% of the papers were related with dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus or their vectors. Temperature, precipitation and population density were key factors among others. 32.8% studied West Nile virus and its vectors, being temperature, precipitation and NDVI the most frequently used variables. Malaria have been studied in 23% of the articles, with temperature, precipitation and presence of water indexes as the most used variables. The number of publications focused on mosquito borne diseases is increasing in recent years, reflecting the increased interest in that diseases in southern European countries. Climatic and environmental variables are key factors on mosquitoes' distribution and to show the risk of emergence and/or spread of emergent diseases and to study the spatial changes in that distributions.

Effects of ambient temperature and precipitation on the risk of dengue fever: A systematic review and updated meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

We systematically reviewed the published studies on the relationship between dengue fever and meteorological factors and applied a meta-analysis to explore the effects of ambient temperature and precipitation on dengue fever.

METHODS

We completed the literature search by the end of September 1st, 2019 using databases including Science Direct, PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. We extracted relative risks (RRs) in selected studies and converted all effect estimates to the RRs per 1 °C increase in temperature and 10 mm increase in precipitation, and combined all standardized RRs together using random-effect meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Our results show that dengue fever was significantly associated with both temperature and precipitation. Our subgroup analyses suggested that the effect of temperature on dengue fever was most pronounced in high-income subtropical areas. The pooled RR of dengue fever associated with the maximum temperature was much lower than the overall effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Temperature and precipitation are important risk factors for dengue fever. Future studies should focus on factors that can distort the effects of temperature and precipitation.

Long-Term Monitoring of Noxious Bacteria for Construction of Assurance Management System of Water Resources in Natural Status of the Republic of Korea

Climate change is expected to affect not only availability and quality of water, the valuable resource of human life on Earth, but also ultimately public health issue. A six-year monitoring (total 20 times) of Escherichia coli O157, Salmonella enterica, Legionella pneumophila, Shigella sonnei, Campylobacter jejuni, and Vibrio cholerae was conducted at five raw water sampling sites including two lakes, Hyundo region (Geum River) and two locations near Water Intake Plants of Han River (Guui region) and Nakdong River (Moolgeum region). A total 100 samples of 40 L water were tested. Most of the targeted bacteria were found in 77% of the samples and at least one of the target bacteria was detected (65%). Among all the detected bacteria, E. coli O157 were the most prevalent with a detection frequency of 22%, while S. sonnei was the least prevalent with a detection frequency of 2%. Nearly all the bacteria (except for S. sonnei) were present in samples from Lake Soyang, Lake Juam, and the Moolgeum region in Nakdong River, while C. jejuni was detected in those from the Guui region in Han River. During the six-year sampling period, individual targeted noxious bacteria in water samples exhibited seasonal patterns in their occurrence that were different from the indicator bacteria levels in the water samples. The fact that they were detected in the five Korea's representative water environments make it necessary to establish the chemical and biological analysis for noxious bacteria and sophisticated management systems in response to climate change.

Semi-Supervised Text Classification Framework: An Overview of Dengue Landscape Factors and Satellite Earth Observation

In recent years there has been an increasing use of satellite Earth observation (EO) data in dengue research, in particular the identification of landscape factors affecting dengue transmission. Summarizing landscape factors and satellite EO data sources, and making the information public are helpful for guiding future research and improving health decision-making. In this case, a review of the literature would appear to be an appropriate tool. However, this is not an easy-to-use tool. The review process mainly includes defining the topic, searching, screening at both title/abstract and full-text levels and data extraction that needs consistent knowledge from experts and is time-consuming and labor intensive. In this context, this study integrates the review process, text scoring, active learning (AL) mechanism, and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks, and proposes a semi-supervised text classification framework that enables the efficient and accurate selection of the relevant articles. Specifically, text scoring and BiLSTM-based active learning were used to replace the title/abstract screening and full-text screening, respectively, which greatly reduces the human workload. In this study, 101 relevant articles were selected from 4 bibliographic databases, and a catalogue of essential dengue landscape factors was identified and divided into four categories: land use (LU), land cover (LC), topography and continuous land surface features. Moreover, various satellite EO sensors and products used for identifying landscape factors were tabulated. Finally, possible future directions of applying satellite EO data in dengue research in terms of landscape patterns, satellite sensors and deep learning were proposed. The proposed semi-supervised text classification framework was successfully applied in research evidence synthesis that could be easily applied to other topics, particularly in an interdisciplinary context.

Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between climate variables, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and large outbreaks of dengue in China.

METHODS

We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) to analyse the influence of climate factors on dengue occurrence and predict dengue outbreak areas in China. Furthermore, we formulated a generalised additive model (GAM) to quantify the impact of the EASM on dengue occurrence in mainland China from 1980 to 2016.

RESULTS

Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter had a 62.6% contribution to dengue outbreaks. Southern China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Yunnan provinces are more vulnerable to dengue emergence and resurgence. In addition, we found population density had a 68.7% contribution to dengue widely distribution in China using ENMs. Statistical analysis indicated a dome-shaped association between EASM and dengue outbreak using GAM, with the greatest impact in the South-East of China. Besides, there was a positive nonlinear association between monthly average temperature and dengue occurrence.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated the influence of climate factors and East Asian summer monsoon on dengue outbreaks, providing a framework for future studies on the association between climate change and vector-borne diseases.

Dengue importation into Europe: A network connectivity-based approach

The spread of dengue through global human mobility is a major public health concern. A key challenge is understanding the transmission pathways and mediating factors that characterized the patterns of dengue importation into non-endemic areas. Utilizing a network connectivity-based approach, we analyze the importation patterns of dengue fever into European countries. Seven connectivity indices were developed to characterize the role of the air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence rate, geographical proximity, epidemic vulnerability, and wealth of a source country, in facilitating the transport and importation of dengue fever. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the relationship between dengue importation and the connectivity indices while accounting for the air transport network structure. We also incorporated network autocorrelation within a GLMM framework to investigate the propensity of a European country to receive an imported case, by virtue of its position within the air transport network. The connectivity indices and dynamical processes of the air transport network were strong predictors of dengue importation in Europe. With more than 70% of the variation in dengue importation patterns explained. We found that transportation potential was higher for source countries with seasonal dengue activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and in geographical proximity to a destination country in Europe. We also found that position of a European country within the air transport network was a strong predictor of the country's propensity to receive an imported case. Our findings provide evidence that the importation patterns of dengue into Europe can be largely explained by appropriately characterizing the heterogeneities of the source, and topology of the air transport network. This contributes to the foundational framework for building integrated predictive models for bio-surveillance of dengue importation.

Three-year surveillance of culicine mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) for flavivirus infections in Incheon Metropolitan City and Hwaseong-si of Gyeonggi-do Province, Republic of Korea

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a single stranded positive sense RNA virus of the genus Flavivirus that belongs to family Flaviviridae and emerged as one of the most pivotal form of viral encephalitis. The virus is transmitted to humans by mosquito vector and is an etiological agent of acute zoonotic infection. In this study, we investigated distribution and density over 3-year period in central regions of Korean peninsula. We selected two cities as mosquito-collecting locations and subdivided them into five collection sites; downtown Incheon Metropolitan City as a typical urban area, and the Hwaseong-si area as a rural area. A total of 35,445 female culicine mosquitoes were collected using black light traps or BG Sentinel™ traps from March to November 2016-2018. Aedes (Ae.) vexans nipponii was the most frequently collected specimens (48.91%), followed by Culex (Cx.) pipiens (32.05%), Ochlerotatus (Och.) dorsalis (13.58%), Och. koreicus (1.68%), and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus (1.49%). In the urban area, Cx. pipiens was the predominant species (92.21%) and the other species accounted for <5% of the total mosquitoes collected. However, in the rural area, Ae. vexans nipponii had the highest population (61.90%), followed by Och. dorsalis (17.10%), Cx. tritaeniorhynchus (1.84%) and Och, koreicus (1.78%). Culicine mosquitoes were identified at the species level, placed in pools of up to 30 mosquitoes each, and screened for flavivirus RNA using the SYBR Green-based RT-PCR. Three of the assayed 1092 pools were positive for Chaoyang virus from Ae. vexans nipponii and Japanese encephalitis virus from Cx. pipiens. The maximum likelihood estimations (the estimated number of virus-positive mosquitoes/1000 mosquitoes) for Ae. vexans nipponii positive for Chaoyang virus and Cx. pipiens for Japanese encephalitis virus were 3.095 and 0.20, respectively. The results of our study demonstrate that although mosquito-borne diseases were not detected in the potential vectors, enhanced monitoring and long-term surveillance of these vector viruses are of great public health importance.

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

Four Year Surveillance of the Vector Hard Ticks for SFTS, Ganghwa-do, Republic of Korea

The seasonal abundance of hard ticks that transmit severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus was monitored with a collection trap method every April to November during 2015–2018 and with a flagging method every July and August during 2015–2018 in Ganghwa-do (island) of Incheon Metropolitan City, Republic of Korea. This monitoring was performed in a copse, a short grass field, coniferous forest and broad-leaved forest. A total of 17,457 ticks (8,277 larvae, 4,137 nymphs, 3,389 females, and 1,654 males) of the ixodid ticks comprising 3 species (Haemaphysalis longicornis, H. flava, and Ixodes nipponensis) were collected with collection traps. Of the identified ticks, H. longicornis was the most frequently collected ticks (except larval ticks) (94.26%, 8,653/9,180 ticks (nymphs and adults)), followed by H. flava (5.71%, 524/9,180) and Ix. nipponensis (less than 0.04%, 3/9,180). The ticks collected with collecting traps were pooled and assayed for the presence of SFTS virus with negative results. In addition, for monitoring the prevalence of hard ticks, a total of 7,461 ticks (5,529 larvae, 1,272 nymphs, 469 females, and 191 males) of the ixodid ticks comprising 3 species (H. longicornis, H. flava, and Ix. nipponensis) were collected with flagging method. H. longicornis was the highest collected ticks (except larval ticks) (99.53%, 1,908/1,917 ticks (nymphs and adults)), followed by H. flava (1.15%, 22/1,917).

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction.

Distribution and Spatial Pattern Analysis on Dengue Cases in Seremban District, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

Dengue fever disease increases alongside urbanization rate in tropical countries. Hence, the need to visualize the distribution pattern of increases is vital for the management of dengue cases, especially in Malaysia. Thus, the dengue surveillance system is proposed for the monitoring of dengue cases using computer-generated modeling for spatial distribution patterns, which is important for management and control. The present study performed distribution and spatial pattern analysis of dengue cases reported in the growing Seremban district in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia in 2008 and 2009. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the pattern of distribution and determine whether it is clustered or dispersed. A total of 1401 and 1056 cases for dengue-related diseases were reported by the Ministry of Health Malaysia in Seremban district in the years 2008 and 2009, respectively. Three spatial statistical analysis were conducted: Spatial mean center, directional distribution, and standard distant on distribution of dengue cases reported. This study found that the distribution pattern for dengue cases is clustered. Spatial mean center and directional distribution for both sets of years have slight differences. Meanwhile, standard distance for dengue cases reported in the year 2008 is 22,085.82 m, which is bigger than dengue cases reported in 2009, showing a standard distance of 20,318.35 m. More sets of cases throughout years are required in further studies to identify factors that contribute to dengue epidemiology in the Seremban district undergoing urbanization.

Dengue fever - an update review and implications for Nigeria, and similar countries

Background

In the last five decades, dengue has emerged as one of the most important infectious diseases, following a 30-fold increase in global incidence throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. The actual numbers of dengue cases are under-reported and many cases are misclassified.

Objectives

This article describes the epidemiology, pathophysiology, clinical features and management of dengue. It also explores the implications of infection with this flavivirus for Nigeria, and similar countries.

Methods

The literature search for publications on dengue in West Africa was performed using PubMed, African Journals Online (AJOL), Google Scholar, Web of Science, databases and grey literature to identify all published papers regarding the topic. A snowballing strategy was adopted to identify additional publications.

Results

Recent reports suggest that dengue is a growing public health problem in Nigeria, the magnitude of which needs to be more clearly defined. Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa has an abundance of the Aedes aegypti mosquito which is known to transmit dengue, Zika, as well as chikungunya (CHIKV) and West Nile viruses.

Conclusion

This article provides practical suggestions for strengthening the dengue virus control programme in Nigeria. The Nigerian health system shares similarities with health systems in many other sub-Saharan countries. Therefore, the practical suggestions provided at the end of this review are likely to be applicable to many other African countries.

Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100

BACKGROUND

Climate change allows Aedes aegypti to infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits -- e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever - to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012-13.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.

METHODS

We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).

RESULTS

In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.

Trends of Dengue Disease Epidemiology

Dengue disease is an emerging mosquito-borne viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes spp. that are distributed mainly in the tropical and subtropical region along with chikungunya and zika diseases. The distribution of dengue disease is influenced by local variation, such as geography, rainfall, temperature, and rapid urbanization or migration. The epidemy of mosquito-borne infection significantly led to increased number of cases and hyperendemicity which induce a more severe form of dengue accompanied by cocirculation of chikungunya and zika. The rapid global spreading of dengue disease created public health burdens that are presently unfulfilled by the absence of specific therapy, simple diagnosis tool for the early phase, and effective and efficient vector control system. This review highlights the current situation of dengue distribution, epidemiology, and new strategies for early dengue diagnosis and risk prediction of severity that can be used to improve oversight and alleviate the heavy burden of the disease.

Detection of Invasive Mosquito Vectors Using Environmental DNA (eDNA) from Water Samples

Repeated introductions and spread of invasive mosquito species (IMS) have been recorded on a large scale these last decades worldwide. In this context, members of the mosquito genus Aedes can present serious risks to public health as they have or may develop vector competence for various viral diseases. While the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a well-known vector for e.g. dengue and chikungunya viruses, the Asian bush mosquito (Ae. j. japonicus) and Ae. koreicus have shown vector competence in the field and the laboratory for a number of viruses including dengue, West Nile fever and Japanese encephalitis. Early detection and identification is therefore crucial for successful eradication or control strategies. Traditional specific identification and monitoring of different and/or cryptic life stages of the invasive Aedes species based on morphological grounds may lead to misidentifications, and are problematic when extensive surveillance is needed. In this study, we developed, tested and applied an environmental DNA (eDNA) approach for the detection of three IMS, based on water samples collected in the field in several European countries. We compared real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays specific for these three species and an eDNA metabarcoding approach with traditional sampling, and discussed the advantages and limitations of these methods. Detection probabilities for eDNA-based approaches were in most of the specific comparisons higher than for traditional survey and the results were congruent between both molecular methods, confirming the reliability and efficiency of alternative eDNA-based techniques for the early and unambiguous detection and surveillance of invasive mosquito vectors. The ease of water sampling procedures in the eDNA approach tested here allows the development of large-scale monitoring and surveillance programs of IMS, especially using citizen science projects.

High rate of unrecognized dengue virus infection in parts of the rainforest region of Nigeria

Outbreaks and sporadic dengue virus infections continue to occur in Africa. Several reports of dengue among travellers returning from some African countries to Europe and North America have raised concerns about the epidemiological situation in Africa. We investigated recent dengue infections in febrile patients during the rainy season in various urban centres in the rainforest region of Nigeria, West Africa. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 8 months in 2014 with study participants from Adeoyo Hospital Yemetu - Ibadan, Nigeria. Plasma were collected from 274 febrile patients residing in 11 Local Government Areas of Oyo State. IgM antibodies were determined using semi-quantitative sandwich ELISA. Data was analyzed using Chi - Square and Fisher's exact test with SPSS 16.0. An overall prevalence of 23.4% dengue virus infection was found among study participants. Highest monthly prevalence of 40% was in April and August. The monthly distribution pattern of dengue virus infection indicates efficient virus transmission. Routine diagnosis will enhance dengue virus surveillance and improve patient care in West Africa.

Age and regional differences in clinical presentation and risk of hospitalization for dengue in Brazil, 2000-2014

OBJECTIVES

Dengue cases range from asymptomatic to severe, eventually leading to hospitalization and death. Timely and appropriate management is critical to reduce morbidity. Since 1980, dengue has spread throughout Brazil, affecting an increasing number of individuals. This paper describes age and regional differences in dengue's clinical presentation and associated risk of hospitalization based on more than 5 million cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health from 2000-2014.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of ∼5,450,000 dengue cases, relating clinical manifestations and the risk of hospitalization to age, gender, previous infection by dengue, dengue virus serotype, years of formal education, delay to first attendance and the occurrence of dengue during outbreaks and in different Brazilian regions.

RESULTS

Complicated forms of dengue occurred more frequently among those younger than 10 years (3.12% vs 1.92%) and those with dengue virus 2 infection (7.65% vs 2.42%), with a delay to first attendance >2 days (3.18% vs 0.82%) and with ≤4 years of formal education (2.02% vs 1.46%). The risk of hospitalization was higher among those aged 6-10 years old (OR 4.57; 95% CI 1.43-29.96) and those who were infected by dengue virus 2 (OR 6.36; 95% CI 2.52-16.06), who lived in the Northeast region (OR 1.38; 95% CI 1.11-2.10) and who delayed first attendance by >5 days (composite OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.33-8.9).

CONCLUSIONS

In Brazil, the occurrence of severe dengue and related hospitalization is associated with being younger than 10 years old, being infected by dengue virus 2 or 3, living in the Northeast region (the poorest and the second most populated) and delaying first attendance for more than 2 days.

Trends in the Mechanistic and Dynamic Modeling of Infectious Diseases

The dynamics of infectious disease epidemics are driven by interactions between individuals with differing disease status (e.g., susceptible, infected, immune). Mechanistic models that capture the dynamics of such “dependent happenings” are a fundamental tool of infectious disease epidemiology. Recent methodological advances combined with access to new data sources and computational power have resulted in an explosion in the use of dynamic models in the analysis of emerging and established infectious diseases. Increasing use of models to inform practical public health decision making has challenged the field to develop new methods to exploit available data and appropriately characterize the uncertainty in the results. Here, we discuss recent advances and areas of active research in the mechanistic and dynamic modeling of infectious disease. We highlight how a growing emphasis on data and inference, novel forecasting methods, and increasing access to “big data” are changing the field of infectious disease dynamics. We showcase the application of these methods in phylodynamic research, which combines mechanistic models with rich sources of molecular data to tie genetic data to population-level disease dynamics. As dynamics and mechanistic modeling methods mature and are increasingly tied to principled statistical approaches, the historic separation between the infectious disease dynamics and “traditional” epidemiologic methods is beginning to erode; this presents new opportunities for cross pollination between fields and novel applications.

Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools)

BACKGROUND

Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur.

METHODS

A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus.

RESULTS

A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous.

CONCLUSION

This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change.

Climate Change and Aedes Vectors: 21st Century Projections for Dengue Transmission in Europe

Warming temperatures may increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases into temperate areas. Although a tropical mosquito-borne viral disease, a dengue outbreak occurred in Madeira, Portugal, in 2012; the first in Europe since 1920s. This outbreak emphasizes the potential for dengue re-emergence in Europe given changing climates. We present estimates of dengue epidemic potential using vectorial capacity (VC) based on historic and projected temperature (1901–2099). VC indicates the vectors' ability to spread disease among humans. We calculated temperature-dependent VC for Europe, highlighting 10 European cities and three non-European reference cities. Compared with the tropics, Europe shows pronounced seasonality and geographical heterogeneity. Although low, VC during summer is currently sufficient for dengue outbreaks in Southern Europe to commence–if sufficient vector populations (either Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) were active and virus were introduced. Under various climate change scenarios, the seasonal peak and time window for dengue epidemic potential increases during the 21st century. Our study maps dengue epidemic potential in Europe and identifies seasonal time windows when major cities are most conducive for dengue transmission from 1901 to 2099. Our findings illustrate, that besides vector control, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions crucially reduces the future epidemic potential of dengue in Europe.

•

Past and present assessments of VC indicate strong seasonal patterns in temperate climates' dengue epidemic potential.

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Current VC intensity could permit summer dengue epidemics in Southern Europe driven by either Aedes vector, where present.

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Extent of spatial and temporal VC changes depend on vector characteristics and projected greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

•

With climate change, future VC intensifies: shifting northward and prolonging the season suitable for dengue epidemics.

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By the 21st century's end, seasonal dengue outbreaks could emerge in much more of Europe if Aedes vectors were established.

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Achieving the Paris Agreement's emission reduction commitments could decelerate the increasing threat of dengue to Europe.

Globalization and climate change can increase the geographic spread of vector-borne diseases. Among those, dengue, a mosquito-transmitted viral disease, causes up to 390 million human infections annually. This study evaluates potential for dengue outbreaks in Europe based on climate conditions. Estimated suitability (1901–2099) for dengue outbreaks is expanding presently from Southern Europe northward and lengthening seasonally up to eight months around the summer; however, the projected extent, intensity and duration depend partially on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that limiting emissions thereby mitigating climate change could substantially reduce the likelihood of dengue transmission events in Europe during the 21st century.

An entomological review of invasive mosquitoes in Europe

Among the invasive mosquitoes registered all over the world, Aedes species are particularly frequent and important. As several of them are potential vectors of disease, they present significant health concerns for 21st century Europe. Five species have established in mainland Europe, with two (Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus) becoming widespread and two (Ae. albopictus and Aedes aegypti) implicated in disease transmission to humans in Europe. The routes of importation and spread are often enigmatic, the ability to adapt to local environments and climates are rapid, and the biting nuisance and vector potential are both an ecomonic and public health concern. Europeans are used to cases of dengue and chikungunya in travellers returning from the tropics, but the threat to health and tourism in mainland Europe is substantive. Coupled to that are the emerging issues in the European overseas territorities and this paper is the first to consider the impacts in the remoter outposts of Europe. If entomologists and public health authorities are to address the spread of these mosquitoes and mitigate their health risks they must first be prepared to share information to better understand their biology and ecology, and share data on their distribution and control successes. This paper focusses in greater detail on the entomological and ecological aspects of these mosquitoes to assist with the risk assessment process, bringing together a large amount of information gathered through the ECDC VBORNET project.

Dengue: recent past and future threats

This article explores four key questions about statistical models developed to describe the recent past and future of vector-borne diseases, with special emphasis on dengue: (1) How many variables should be used to make predictions about the future of vector-borne diseases? (2) Is the spatial resolution of a climate dataset an important determinant of model accuracy? (3) Does inclusion of the future distributions of vectors affect predictions of the futures of the diseases they transmit? (4) Which are the key predictor variables involved in determining the distributions of vector-borne diseases in the present and future? Examples are given of dengue models using one, five or 10 meteorological variables and at spatial resolutions of from one-sixth to two degrees. Model accuracy is improved with a greater number of descriptor variables, but is surprisingly unaffected by the spatial resolution of the data. Dengue models with a reduced set of climate variables derived from the HadCM3 global circulation model predictions for the 1980s are improved when risk maps for dengue's two main vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) are also included as predictor variables; disease and vector models are projected into the future using the global circulation model predictions for the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. The Garthwaite-Koch corr-max transformation is presented as a novel way of showing the relative contribution of each of the input predictor variables to the map predictions.

Estimating air travel-associated importations of dengue virus into Italy

BACKGROUND

Southern Europe is increasingly at risk for dengue emergence, given the seasonal presence of relevant mosquito vectors and suitable climatic conditions. For example, Aedes mosquitoes, the main vector for both dengue and chikungunya, are abundant in Italy, and Italy experienced the first ever outbreak of chikungunya in Europe in 2007. We set out to estimate the extent of dengue virus importations into Italy via air travelers.

METHODS

We attempted to quantify the number of dengue virus importations based on modeling of published estimates on dengue incidence in the countries of disembarkation and analysis of data on comprehensive air travel from these countries into Italy's largest international airport in Rome.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2012, more than 7.3 million air passengers departing from 100 dengue-endemic countries arrived in Rome. Our Importation Model, which included air traveler volume, estimated the incidence of dengue infections in the countries of disembarkation, and the probability of infection coinciding with travel accounted for an average of 2,320 (1,621-3,255) imported dengue virus infections per year, of which 572 (381-858) were "apparent" dengue infections and 1,747 (1,240-2,397) "inapparent."

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2005 and 2012, we found an increasing trend of dengue virus infections imported into Rome via air travel, which may pose a potential threat for future emergence of dengue in Italy, given that the reoccurring pattern of peak importations corresponds seasonally with periods of relevant mosquito vector activity. The observed increasing annual trends of dengue importation and the consistent peaks in late summer underpin the urgency in determining the threshold levels for the vector and infected human populations that could facilitate novel autochthonous transmission of dengue in Europe.

Rhamnolipids: solution against Aedes aegypti?

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes are the primary transmitters of dengue fever, urban yellow fever, and chikungunya viruses. This mosquito has developed resistance to the insecticides currently used to control their populations. These chemical insecticides are harmful to the environment and can have negative effects on human health. Rhamnolipids are environmentally compatible biological surfactants, but their insecticidal activity has not been extensively studied. The present study evaluated the potential larvicidal, insecticidal, and repellent activities of rhamnolipids against A. aegypti. At concentrations of 800, 900, and 1000 mg/L, rhamnolipids eliminated all mosquito larvae in 18 h and killed 100% of adults at 1000 mg/L. According to the results it may be conclude that rhamnolipids should be applied to control larvae and mosquitos besides present the repellency activity against A. aegypti.

Vector-borne disease intelligence: strategies to deal with disease burden and threats

Owing to the complex nature of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), whereby monitoring of human case patients does not suffice, public health authorities experience challenges in surveillance and control of VBDs. Knowledge on the presence and distribution of vectors and the pathogens that they transmit is vital to the risk assessment process to permit effective early warning, surveillance, and control of VBDs. Upon accepting this reality, public health authorities face an ever-increasing range of possible surveillance targets and an associated prioritization process. Here, we propose a comprehensive approach that integrates three surveillance strategies: population-based surveillance, disease-based surveillance, and context-based surveillance for EU member states to tailor the best surveillance strategy for control of VBDs in their geographic region. By classifying the surveillance structure into five different contexts, we hope to provide guidance in optimizing surveillance efforts. Contextual surveillance strategies for VBDs entail combining organization and data collection approaches that result in disease intelligence rather than a preset static structure.

International dispersal of dengue through air travel: importation risk for Europe

Background

The worldwide distribution of dengue is expanding, in part due to globalized traffic and trade. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for dengue viruses (DENV) and is now established in numerous regions of Europe. Viremic travellers arriving in Europe from dengue-affected areas of the world can become catalysts of local outbreaks in Europe. Local dengue transmission in Europe is extremely rare, and the last outbreak occurred in 1927–28 in Greece. However, autochthonous transmission was reported from France in September 2010, and from Croatia between August and October 2010.

Methodology

We compiled data on areas affected by dengue in 2010 from web resources and surveillance reports, and collected national dengue importation data. We developed a hierarchical regression model to quantify the relationship between the number of reported dengue cases imported into Europe and the volume of airline travellers arriving from dengue-affected areas internationally.

Principal Findings

In 2010, over 5.8 million airline travellers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas worldwide, of which 703,396 arrived at 36 airports situated in areas where Ae. albopictus has been recorded. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for imported dengue into European countries was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17) for every increase of 10,000 travellers; in August, September, and October the rate ratios were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.23–2.35), 1.46 (95%CI: 1.02–2.10), and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.01–1.81), respectively. Two Italian cities where the vector is present received over 50% of all travellers from dengue-affected areas, yet with the continuing vector expansion more cities will be implicated in the future. In fact, 38% more travellers arrived in 2013 into those parts of Europe where Ae. albopictus has recently been introduced, compared to 2010.

Conclusions

The highest risk of dengue importation in 2010 was restricted to three months and can be ranked according to arriving traveller volume from dengue-affected areas into cities where the vector is present. The presence of the vector is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for DENV onward transmission, which depends on a number of additional factors. However, our empirical model can provide spatio-temporal elements to public health interventions.

The global disease burden of dengue is staggering. Continuous expansion and vaccine failures illustrate the limitations of current dengue control efforts. Novel approaches and additional tools are required to combat and contain the disease. In Europe, dengue infections are rare and the last outbreak of dengue occurred in the late 1920s, in Greece. In 2010, however, local transmission occurred in France and Croatia. Based on 2010 data, we present a novel quantitative model of the risk of dengue importation for Europe. The 2010 model predicts the risk of dengue importation to be greatest for Milan, Rome and Barcelona in August, September and October, precisely when vector activity is the highest. With the current expansion of the vector in Europe, more cities are projected to be at risk in the future. Thus, the model based on 2010 data quantifies the likelihood and timing of importation. This approach employs global travel data to assess dengue importation risk in the EU and illustrates how quantitative models could tailor infectious disease control to certain regions and time periods.

Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance

OBJECTIVES

In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks.

STUDY DESIGN

The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…).

METHODS

Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks.

RESULTS

This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article.

Mapping infectious disease landscapes: unmanned aerial vehicles and epidemiology

The potential applications of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, have generated intense interest across many fields. UAVs offer the potential to collect detailed spatial information in real time at relatively low cost and are being used increasingly in conservation and ecological research. Within infectious disease epidemiology and public health research, UAVs can provide spatially and temporally accurate data critical to understanding the linkages between disease transmission and environmental factors. Using UAVs avoids many of the limitations associated with satellite data (e.g., long repeat times, cloud contamination, low spatial resolution). However, the practicalities of using UAVs for field research limit their use to specific applications and settings. UAVs fill a niche but do not replace existing remote-sensing methods.

The interconnected and cross-border nature of risks posed by infectious diseases

Infectious diseases can constitute public health emergencies of international concern when a pathogen arises, acquires new characteristics, or is deliberately released, leading to the potential for loss of human lives as well as societal disruption. A wide range of risk drivers are now known to lead to and/or exacerbate the emergence and spread of infectious disease, including global trade and travel, the overuse of antibiotics, intensive agriculture, climate change, high population densities, and inadequate infrastructures, such as water treatment facilities. Where multiple risk drivers interact, the potential impact of a disease outbreak is amplified. The varying temporal and geographic frequency with which infectious disease events occur adds yet another layer of complexity to the issue. Mitigating the emergence and spread of infectious disease necessitates mapping and prioritising the interdependencies between public health and other sectors. Conversely, during an international public health emergency, significant disruption occurs not only to healthcare systems but also to a potentially wide range of sectors, including trade, tourism, energy, civil protection, transport, agriculture, and so on. At the same time, dealing with a disease outbreak may require a range of critical sectors for support. There is a need to move beyond narrow models of risk to better account for the interdependencies between health and other sectors so as to be able to better mitigate and respond to the risks posed by emerging infectious disease.

Dengue and dengue vectors in the WHO European region: past, present, and scenarios for the future

After 55 years of absence, dengue has re-emerged in the WHO European region both as locally transmitted sporadic cases and as an outbreak in Madeira, driven by the introduction of people infected with the virus and the invasion of the vector mosquito species Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Models predict a further spread of A albopictus, particularly under climate change conditions. Dengue transmission models suggest a low risk in Europe, but these models too rarely include transmission by A albopictus (the main established vector). Further information gaps exist with regard to the Caucasus and central Asian countries of the WHO European region. Many European countries have implemented surveillance and control measures for invasive mosquitoes, but only a few include surveillance for dengue. As long as no dengue-specific prophylaxis or therapeutics are available, integrated vector management is the most sustainable control option. The rapid elimination of newly introduced A aegypti populations should be targeted in the European region, particularly in southern Europe and the Caucasus, where the species was present for decades until the 1950s.

Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios.

METHODS

We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence.

RESULTS

The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy.

CONCLUSIONS

This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.

Pathogen inactivation technologies for cellular blood components: an update

Nowadays patients receiving blood components are exposed to much less transfusion-transmitted infectious diseases than three decades before when among others HIV was identified as causative agent for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and the transmission by blood or coagulation factors became evident. Since that time the implementation of measures for risk prevention and safety precaution was socially and politically accepted. Currently emerging pathogens like arboviruses and the well-known bacterial contamination of platelet concentrates still remain major concerns of blood safety with important clinical consequences, but very rarely with fatal outcome for the blood recipient. In contrast to the well-established pathogen inactivation strategies for fresh frozen plasma using the solvent-detergent procedure or methylene blue and visible light, the bench-to-bedside translation of novel pathogen inactivation technologies for cell-containing blood components such as platelets and red blood cells are still underway. This review summarizes the pharmacological/toxicological assessment and the inactivation efficacy against viruses, bacteria, and protozoa of each of the currently available pathogen inactivation technologies and highlights the impact of the results obtained from several randomized clinical trials and hemovigilance data. Until now in some European countries pathogen inactivation technologies are in in routine use for single-donor plasma and platelets. The invention and adaption of pathogen inactivation technologies for red blood cell units and whole blood donations suggest the universal applicability of these technologies and foster a paradigm shift in the manufacturing of safe blood.