Systematic comparison of family history and polygenic risk across 24 common diseases

Asthma-Genomic Advances Toward Risk Prediction

Asthma is a common complex airway disease whose prediction of disease risk and most severe outcomes is crucial in clinical practice for adequate clinical management. This review discusses the latest findings in asthma genomics and current obstacles faced in moving forward to translational medicine. While genome-wide association studies have provided valuable insights into the genetic basis of asthma, there are challenges that must be addressed to improve disease prediction, such as the need for diverse representation, the functional characterization of genetic variants identified, variant selection for genetic testing, and refining prediction models using polygenic risk scores.

Single-Ancestry versus Multi-Ancestry Polygenic Risk Scores for CKD in Black American Populations

Key Points

Background

CKD is a risk factor of cardiovascular disease and early death. Recently, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been developed to quantify risk for CKD. However, African ancestry populations are underrepresented in both CKD genetic studies and PRS development overall. Moreover, European ancestry–derived PRSs demonstrate diminished predictive performance in African ancestry populations.

Methods

This study aimed to develop a PRS for CKD in Black American populations. We obtained score weights from a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for eGFR in the Million Veteran Program and Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study to develop an eGFR PRS. We optimized the PRS risk model in a cohort of participants from the Hypertension Genetic Epidemiology Network. Validation was performed in subsets of Black participants of the Trans-Omics in Precision Medicine Consortium and Genetics of Hypertension Associated Treatment Study.

Results

The prevalence of CKD—defined as stage 3 or higher—was associated with the PRS as a continuous predictor (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.35 [1.08 to 1.68]) and in a threshold-dependent manner. Furthermore, including APOL1 risk status—a putative variant for CKD with higher prevalence among those of sub-Saharan African descent—improved the score's accuracy. PRS associations were robust to sensitivity analyses accounting for traditional CKD risk factors, as well as CKD classification based on prior eGFR equations. Compared with previously published PRS, the predictive performance of our PRS was comparable with a European ancestry–derived PRS for kidney traits. However, single-ancestry PRSs were less predictive than multi-ancestry–derived PRSs.

Conclusions

In this study, we developed a PRS that was significantly associated with CKD with improved predictive accuracy when including APOL1 risk status. However, PRS generated from multi-ancestry populations outperformed single-ancestry PRS in our study.

Sleep duration irregularity and risk for incident cardiovascular disease in the UK Biobank

Background

Emerging evidence supports a link between circadian disruption as measured by higher night-to-night variation in sleep duration and increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). It remains unclear whether this association varies by CVD types or may be modified by average sleep duration and genetic risk for CVD.

Methods

Our prospective analysis included 86,219 UK Biobank participants who were free from CVD when completing 7 days of accelerometer measurement in 2013-2016. Sleep irregularity was evaluated by the standard deviation (SD) of accelerometer-measured sleep duration over 7 days. Incident major CVD events, defined as fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, were identified through linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics data until May 31, 2022. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for associations of sleep duration SD with risk for major CVD events overall and for MI and stroke separately.

Results

We documented 2,310 incident cases of major CVD events (MI: 1,183, stroke: 1,175) over 636,258 person-years of follow-up. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors and family history of CVD, the HR (95% CI) associated with a 1-hour increase in sleep duration SD was 1.19 (1.10, 1.27) for CVD (p-trend<0.0001), 1.23 (1.11, 1.35) for MI (p-trend<0.0001), and 1.17 (1.05, 1.29) for stroke (p-trend=0.003). Additional adjustment for lifestyle factors, co-morbidities and sleep-related factors modestly attenuated these associations. Higher sleep irregularity was associated with higher CVD risk irrespective of genetic risk (p-interaction=0.43), but this association was stronger among individuals with longer average sleep duration >8 hours (p-interaction=0.006).

Conclusions

Higher night-to-night variation in accelerometer-measured sleep duration was associated with consistently higher risks for major CVD events. The association did not seem to be modified by genetic risk for CVD and was more pronounced in long sleepers.

Polygenic risk scores as a marker for epilepsy risk across lifetime and after unspecified seizure events

A diagnosis of epilepsy has significant consequences for an individual but is often challenging in clinical practice. Novel biomarkers are thus greatly needed. Here, we investigated how common genetic factors (epilepsy polygenic risk scores, [PRSs]) influence epilepsy risk in detailed longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) of > 700k Finns and Estonians. We found that a high genetic generalized epilepsy PRS (PRSGGE) increased risk for genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.73 per PRSGGE standard deviation [SD]) across lifetime and within 10 years after an unspecified seizure event. The effect of PRSGGE was significantly larger on idiopathic generalized epilepsies, in females and for earlier epilepsy onset. Analogously, we found significant but more modest focal epilepsy PRS burden associated with non-acquired focal epilepsy (NAFE). Here, we outline the potential of epilepsy specific PRSs to serve as biomarkers after a first seizure event.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (β coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Validation of a clinical breast cancer risk assessment tool combining a polygenic score for all ancestries with traditional risk factors

PURPOSE

We previously described a combined risk score (CRS) that integrates a multiple-ancestry polygenic risk score (MA-PRS) with the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) model to assess breast cancer (BC) risk. Here, we present a longitudinal validation of CRS in a real-world cohort.

METHODS

This study included 130,058 patients referred for hereditary cancer genetic testing and negative for germline pathogenic variants in BC-associated genes. Data were obtained by linking genetic test results to medical claims (median follow-up 12.1 months). CRS calibration was evaluated by the ratio of observed to expected BCs.

RESULTS

Three hundred forty BCs were observed over 148,349 patient-years. CRS was well-calibrated and demonstrated superior calibration compared with TC in high-risk deciles. MA-PRS alone had greater discriminatory accuracy than TC, and CRS had approximately 2-fold greater discriminatory accuracy than MA-PRS or TC. Among those classified as high risk by TC, 32.6% were low risk by CRS, and of those classified as low risk by TC, 4.3% were high risk by CRS. In cases where CRS and TC classifications disagreed, CRS was more accurate in predicting incident BC.

CONCLUSION

CRS was well-calibrated and significantly improved BC risk stratification. Short-term follow-up suggests that clinical implementation of CRS should improve outcomes for patients of all ancestries through personalized risk-based screening and prevention.

Genetic Risk, Healthy Lifestyle Adherence, and Risk of Developing Diabetes in the Japanese Population

AIM

This study examined the relationship between genetic risk, healthy lifestyle, and risk of developing diabetes.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 11,014 diabetes-free individuals ≥ 20 years old from the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-based cohort study. Lifestyle scores, including the body mass index, smoking, physical activity, and gamma-glutamyl transferase (marker of alcohol consumption), were assigned, and participants were categorized into ideal, intermediate, and poor lifestyles. A polygenic risk score (PRS) was constructed based on the type 2 diabetes loci from the BioBank Japan study. A multiple logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between genetic risk, healthy lifestyle, and diabetes incidence and to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULT

Of the 11,014 adults included (67.8% women; mean age [standard deviation], 59.1 [11.3] years old), 297 (2.7%) developed diabetes during a mean 4.3 (0.8) years of follow-up. Genetic and lifestyle score is independently associated with the development of diabetes. Compared with the low genetic risk and ideal lifestyle groups, the odds ratio was 3.31 for the low genetic risk and poor lifestyle group. When the PRS was integrated into a model including the lifestyle and family history, the AUROC significantly improved to 0.719 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.692-0.747) compared to a model including only the lifestyle and family history (0.703 [95% CI, 0.674-0.732]).

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that adherence to a healthy lifestyle is important for preventing diabetes, regardless of genetic risk. In addition, genetic risk might provide information beyond lifestyle and family history to stratify individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.

3-generation family histories of mental, neurologic, cardiometabolic, birth defect, asthma, allergy, and autoimmune conditions associated with autism: an open-source catalogue of findings

The relatively few conditions and family members investigated in autism family health history limits etiologic understanding. For more comprehensive understanding and hypothesis-generation we produced an open-source catalogue of autism associations with family histories of mental, neurologic, cardiometabolic, birth defect, asthma, allergy, and autoimmune conditions. All live births in Denmark, 1980-2012, of Denmark-born parents (1,697,231 births), and their 3-generation family members were followed through April 10, 2017 for each of 90 diagnoses (including autism), emigration or death. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were estimated via Cox regression for each diagnosis-family member type combination, adjusting for birth year, sex, birth weight, gestational age, parental ages at birth, and number of family member types of index person; aHRs also calculated for sex-specific co-occurrence of each disorder. We obtained 6,462 individual family history aHRS across autism overall (26,840 autistic persons; 1.6% of births), by sex, and considering intellectual disability (ID); and 350 individual co-occurrence aHRS. Results are catalogued in interactive heat maps and down-loadable data files: https://ncrr-au.shinyapps.io/asd-riskatlas/ and interactive graphic summaries: https://public.tableau.com/views/ASDPlots_16918786403110/e-Figure5. While primarily for reference material or use in other studies (e.g., meta-analyses), results revealed considerable breadth and variation in magnitude of familial health history associations with autism by type of condition, family member type, sex of the family member, side of the family, sex of the index person, and ID status, indicative of diverse genetic, familial, and non-genetic autism etiologic pathways. Careful attention to sources of autism likelihood in family health history, aided by our open data resource, may accelerate understanding of factors underlying neurodiversity.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Combined polygenic scores for ischemic stroke risk factors aid risk assessment of ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Current risk assessment for ischemic stroke (IS) is limited to clinical variables. We hypothesize that polygenic scores (PGS) of IS (PGSIS) and IS-associated diseases such as atrial fibrillation (AF), venous thromboembolism (VTE), coronary artery disease (CAD), hypertension (HTN), and Type 2 diabetes (T2D) may improve the performance of IS risk assessment.

METHODS

Incident IS was followed for 479,476 participants in the UK Biobank who did not have an IS diagnosis prior to the recruitment. Lifestyle variables (obesity, smoking and alcohol) at the time of study recruitment, clinical diagnoses of IS-associated diseases, PGSIS, and five PGSs for IS-associated diseases were tested using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Predictive performance was assessed using the C-statistic and net reclassification index (NRI).

RESULTS

During a median average 12.5-year follow-up, 8374 subjects were diagnosed with IS. Known clinical variables (age, gender, clinical diagnoses of IS-associated diseases, obesity, and smoking) and PGSIS were all independently associated with IS (P < 0.001). In addition, PGSIS and each PGS for IS-associated diseases was also independently associated with IS (P < 0.001). Compared to the clinical model, a joint clinical/PGS model improved the C-statistic for predicting IS from 0.71 to 0.73 (P < 0.001) and significantly reclassified IS risk (NRI = 0.017, P < 0.001), and 6.48% of subjects were upgraded from low to high risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding PGSs of IS and IS-associated diseases to known clinical risk factors statistically improved risk assessment for IS, demonstrating the supplementary value of inherited susceptibility measurement . However, its clinical utility is likely limited due to modest improvements in predictive values.

Polygenic risk scores in atrial fibrillation: Associations and clinical utility in disease prediction

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common heart arrhythmia and a major cause of cardioembolic stroke. Therefore, accurate prediction is desirable to allow high-risk individuals to be identified early and their risk lowered before complications arise. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have become a popular method of quantifying aggregated genetic risk from common variants, but their clinical value in AF remains uncertain. This literature review summarizes the associations between PRS and AF risk and discusses the evidence for the clinical utility of PRS for AF prediction. Stroke risk in patients with AF is also considered. Despite consistent associations between PRS and AF risk, the performance of PRS as a stand-alone tool for AF prediction was poor. However, addition of PRS to the existing AF prediction models commonly improved the predictive performance above that of the clinical models alone, including in cohorts with comorbid cardiovascular disease. Associations between PRS and cardioembolic stroke risk in patients with AF have also been reported, but improvements in stroke prediction models from PRS have been minimal. PRS are likely to add value to the existing clinical AF prediction models; however, standardization of PRS across studies and populations will likely be required before they can be meaningfully adopted into routine clinical practice.

Screening embryos for polygenic disease risk: a review of epidemiological, clinical, and ethical considerations

BACKGROUND

The genetic composition of embryos generated by in vitro fertilization (IVF) can be examined with preimplantation genetic testing (PGT). Until recently, PGT was limited to detecting single-gene, high-risk pathogenic variants, large structural variants, and aneuploidy. Recent advances have made genome-wide genotyping of IVF embryos feasible and affordable, raising the possibility of screening embryos for their risk of polygenic diseases such as breast cancer, hypertension, diabetes, or schizophrenia. Despite a heated debate around this new technology, called polygenic embryo screening (PES; also PGT-P), it is already available to IVF patients in some countries. Several articles have studied epidemiological, clinical, and ethical perspectives on PES; however, a comprehensive, principled review of this emerging field is missing.

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

This review has four main goals. First, given the interdisciplinary nature of PES studies, we aim to provide a self-contained educational background about PES to reproductive specialists interested in the subject. Second, we provide a comprehensive and critical review of arguments for and against the introduction of PES, crystallizing and prioritizing the key issues. We also cover the attitudes of IVF patients, clinicians, and the public towards PES. Third, we distinguish between possible future groups of PES patients, highlighting the benefits and harms pertaining to each group. Finally, our review, which is supported by ESHRE, is intended to aid healthcare professionals and policymakers in decision-making regarding whether to introduce PES in the clinic, and if so, how, and to whom.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched for PubMed-indexed articles published between 1/1/2003 and 1/3/2024 using the terms 'polygenic embryo screening', 'polygenic preimplantation', and 'PGT-P'. We limited the review to primary research papers in English whose main focus was PES for medical conditions. We also included papers that did not appear in the search but were deemed relevant.

OUTCOMES

The main theoretical benefit of PES is a reduction in lifetime polygenic disease risk for children born after screening. The magnitude of the risk reduction has been predicted based on statistical modelling, simulations, and sibling pair analyses. Results based on all methods suggest that under the best-case scenario, large relative risk reductions are possible for one or more diseases. However, as these models abstract several practical limitations, the realized benefits may be smaller, particularly due to a limited number of embryos and unclear future accuracy of the risk estimates. PES may negatively impact patients and their future children, as well as society. The main personal harms are an unindicated IVF treatment, a possible reduction in IVF success rates, and patient confusion, incomplete counselling, and choice overload. The main possible societal harms include discarded embryos, an increasing demand for 'designer babies', overemphasis of the genetic determinants of disease, unequal access, and lower utility in people of non-European ancestries. Benefits and harms will vary across the main potential patient groups, comprising patients already requiring IVF, fertile people with a history of a severe polygenic disease, and fertile healthy people. In the United States, the attitudes of IVF patients and the public towards PES seem positive, while healthcare professionals are cautious, sceptical about clinical utility, and concerned about patient counselling.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

The theoretical potential of PES to reduce risk across multiple polygenic diseases requires further research into its benefits and harms. Given the large number of practical limitations and possible harms, particularly unnecessary IVF treatments and discarded viable embryos, PES should be offered only within a research context before further clarity is achieved regarding its balance of benefits and harms. The gap in attitudes between healthcare professionals and the public needs to be narrowed by expanding public and patient education and providing resources for informative and unbiased genetic counselling.

Towards fair and clinically relevant polygenic predictions

Lennon et al. recently proposed a clinical polygenic score (PGS) pipeline as part of the Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) network initiative. In this spotlight article we discuss the broader context for the use of PGS in preventive medicine and highlight key limitations and challenges facing their inclusion in prediction models.

Comprehensive Inherited Risk Estimation for Risk-Based Breast Cancer Screening in Women

PURPOSE

Family history (FH) and pathogenic variants (PVs) are used for guiding risk surveillance in selected high-risk women but little is known about their impact for breast cancer screening on population level. In addition, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been shown to efficiently stratify breast cancer risk through combining information about common genetic factors into one measure.

METHODS

In longitudinal real-life data, we evaluate PRS, FH, and PVs for stratified screening. Using FinnGen (N = 117,252), linked to the Mass Screening Registry for breast cancer (1992-2019; nationwide organized biennial screening for age 50-69 years), we assessed the screening performance of a breast cancer PRS and compared its performance with FH of breast cancer and PVs in moderate- (CHEK2)- to high-risk (PALB2) susceptibility genes.

RESULTS

Effect sizes for FH, PVs, and high PRS (>90th percentile) were comparable in screening-aged women, with similar implications for shifting age at screening onset. A high PRS identified women more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer after a positive screening finding (positive predictive value [PPV], 39.5% [95% CI, 37.6 to 41.5]). Combinations of risk factors increased the PPVs up to 45% to 50%. A high PRS conferred an elevated risk of interval breast cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 2.78 [95% CI, 2.00 to 3.86] at age 50 years; HR, 2.48 [95% CI, 1.67 to 3.70] at age 60 years), and women with a low PRS (<10th percentile) had a low risk for both interval- and screen-detected breast cancers.

CONCLUSION

Using real-life screening data, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of a breast cancer PRS for risk stratification, alone and combined with FH and PVs. Further research is required to evaluate their impact in a prospective risk-stratified screening program, including cost-effectiveness.

Polygenic scores for longitudinal prediction of incident type 2 diabetes in an ancestrally and medically diverse primary care physician network: a patient cohort study

BACKGROUND

The clinical utility of genetic information for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction with polygenic scores (PGS) in ancestrally diverse, real-world US healthcare systems is unclear, especially for those at low clinical phenotypic risk for T2D.

METHODS

We tested the association of PGS with T2D incidence in patients followed within a primary care practice network over 16 years in four hypothetical scenarios that varied by clinical data availability (N = 14,712): (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and family history of T2D; (3) all variables in (2) and random glucose; and (4) all variables in (3), HDL, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, combined in a clinical risk score (CRS). To determine whether genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk, we tested for interaction with the CRS.

RESULTS

PGS was associated with incident T2D in all models. Adjusting for age and sex only, the Hazard Ratio (HR) per PGS standard deviation (SD) was 1.76 (95% CI 1.68, 1.84) and the HR of top 5% of PGS vs interquartile range (IQR) was 2.80 (2.39, 3.28). Adjusting for the CRS, the HR per SD was 1.48 (1.40, 1.57) and HR of the top 5% of PGS vs IQR was 2.09 (1.72, 2.55). Genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk ((PGS-CRS interaction p = 0.05; CRS below the median: HR 1.60 (1.43, 1.79); CRS above the median: HR 1.45 (1.35, 1.55)).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic information can help identify high-risk patients even among those perceived to be low risk in a clinical evaluation.

An early-onset specific polygenic risk score optimizes age-based risk estimate and stratification of prostate cancer: population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Early-onset prostate cancer (EOPC, ≤ 55 years) has a unique clinical entity harboring high genetic risk, but the majority of EOPC patients still substantial opportunity to be early-detected thus suffering an unfavorable prognosis. A refined understanding of age-based polygenic risk score (PRS) for prostate cancer (PCa) would be essential for personalized risk stratification.

METHODS

We included 167,517 male participants [4882 cases including 205 EOPC and 4677 late-onset PCa (LOPC)] from UK Biobank. A General-, an EOPC- and an LOPC-PRS were derived from age-specific genome-wide association studies. Weighted Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate the risk of PCa associated with PRSs. The discriminatory capability of PRSs were validated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with additional 4238 males from PLCO and TCGA. Phenome-wide association studies underlying Mendelian Randomization were conducted to discover EOPC linking phenotypes.

RESULTS

The 269-PRS calculated via well-established risk variants was more strongly associated with risk of EOPC [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.99-2.78] than LOPC (HR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.89-2.01; I2 = 79%). EOPC-PRS was dramatically related to EOPC risk (HR = 4.70, 95% CI 3.98-5.54) but not to LOPC (HR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-1.01), while LOPC-PRS had similar risk estimates for EOPC and LOPC (I2 = 0%). Particularly, EOPC-PRS performed optimal discriminatory capability for EOPC (area under the ROC = 0.613). Among the phenomic factors to PCa deposited in the platform of ProAP (Prostate cancer Age-based PheWAS; https://mulongdu.shinyapps.io/proap ), EOPC was preferentially associated with PCa family history while LOPC was prone to environmental and lifestyles exposures.

CONCLUSIONS

This study comprehensively profiled the distinct genetic and phenotypic architecture of EOPC. The EOPC-PRS may optimize risk estimate of PCa in young males, particularly those without family history, thus providing guidance for precision population stratification.

Clinical features of prostate cancer by polygenic risk score

Genome-wide association studies have identified more than 290 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) associated with prostate cancer. These SNVs can be combined to generate a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS), which estimates an individual's risk to develop prostate cancer. Identifying individuals at higher risk for prostate cancer using PRS could allow for personalized screening recommendations, improve current screening tools, and potentially result in improved survival rates, but more research is needed before incorporating them into clinical use. Our study aimed to investigate associations between PRS and clinical factors in affected individuals, including age of diagnosis, metastases, histology, International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Grade Group (GG) and family history of prostate cancer, while taking into account germline genetic testing in known prostate cancer related genes. To evaluate the relationship between these clinical factors and PRS, a quantitative retrospective chart review of 250 individuals of European ancestry diagnosed with prostate cancer who received genetic counseling services at The Ohio State University's Genitourinary Cancer Genetics Clinic and a 72-SNV PRS through Ambry Genetics, was performed. We found significant associations between higher PRS and younger age of diagnosis (p = 0.002), lower frequency of metastases (p = 0.006), and having a first-degree relative diagnosed with prostate cancer (p = 0.024). We did not observe significant associations between PRS and ISUP GG, histology or a having a second-degree relative with prostate cancer. These findings provide insights into features associated with higher PRS, but larger multi-ancestral studies using PRS that are informative across populations are needed to understand its clinical utility.

The Health History of First-Degree Relatives' Dyslipidemia Can Affect Preferences and Intentions following the Return of Genomic Results for Monogenic Familial Hypercholesterolemia

Genetic testing is key in modern healthcare, particularly for monogenic disorders such as familial hypercholesterolemia. This Tohoku Medical Megabank Project study explored the impact of first-degree relatives' dyslipidemia history on individual responses to familial hypercholesterolemia genomic results. Involving 214 participants and using Japan's 3.5KJPN genome reference panel, the study assessed preferences and intentions regarding familial hypercholesterolemia genetic testing results. The data revealed a significant inclination among participants with a family history of dyslipidemia to share their genetic test results, with more than 80% of participants intending to share positive results with their partners and children and 98.1% acknowledging the usefulness of positive results for personal health management. The study underscores the importance of family health history in genetic-testing perceptions, highlighting the need for family-centered approaches in genetic counseling and healthcare. Notable study limitations include the regional scope and reliance on questionnaire data. The study results emphasize the association between family health history and genetic-testing attitudes and decisions.

Breast and bowel cancers diagnosed in people 'too young to have cancer': A blueprint for research using family and twin studies

Young breast and bowel cancers (e.g., those diagnosed before age 40 or 50 years) have far greater morbidity and mortality in terms of years of life lost, and are increasing in incidence, but have been less studied. For breast and bowel cancers, the familial relative risks, and therefore the familial variances in age-specific log(incidence), are much greater at younger ages, but little of these familial variances has been explained. Studies of families and twins can address questions not easily answered by studies of unrelated individuals alone. We describe existing and emerging family and twin data that can provide special opportunities for discovery. We present designs and statistical analyses, including novel ideas such as the VALID (Variance in Age-specific Log Incidence Decomposition) model for causes of variation in risk, the DEPTH (DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits) and other approaches to analyse genome-wide association study data, and the within-pair, ICE FALCON (Inference about Causation from Examining FAmiliaL CONfounding) and ICE CRISTAL (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLysis) approaches to causation and familial confounding. Example applications to breast and colorectal cancer are presented. Motivated by the availability of the resources of the Breast and Colon Cancer Family Registries, we also present some ideas for future studies that could be applied to, and compared with, cancers diagnosed at older ages and address the challenges posed by young breast and bowel cancers.

Causation and familial confounding as explanations for the associations of polygenic risk scores with breast cancer: Evidence from innovative ICE FALCON and ICE CRISTAL analyses

A polygenic risk score (PRS) combines the associations of multiple genetic variants that could be due to direct causal effects, indirect genetic effects, or other sources of familial confounding. We have developed new approaches to assess evidence for and against causation by using family data for pairs of relatives (Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding [ICE FALCON]) or measures of family history (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLyses [ICE CRISTAL]). Inference is made from the changes in regression coefficients of relatives' PRSs or PRS and family history before and after adjusting for each other. We applied these approaches to two breast cancer PRSs and multiple studies and found that (a) for breast cancer diagnosed at a young age, for example, <50 years, there was no evidence that the PRSs were causal, while (b) for breast cancer diagnosed at later ages, there was consistent evidence for causation explaining increasing amounts of the PRS-disease association. The genetic variants in the PRS might be in linkage disequilibrium with truly causal variants and not causal themselves. These PRSs cause minimal heritability of breast cancer at younger ages. There is also evidence for nongenetic factors shared by first-degree relatives that explain breast cancer familial aggregation. Familial associations are not necessarily due to genes, and genetic associations are not necessarily causal.

Taking the risk. A systematic review of ethical reasons and moral arguments in the clinical use of polygenic risk scores

Debates about the prospective clinical use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) have grown considerably in the last years. The potential benefits of PRS to improve patient care at individual and population levels have been extensively underlined. Nonetheless, the use of PRS in clinical contexts presents a number of unresolved ethical challenges and consequent normative gaps that hinder their optimal implementation. Here, we conducted a systematic review of reasons of the normative literature discussing ethical issues and moral arguments related to the use of PRS for the prevention and treatment of common complex diseases. In total, we have included and analyzed 34 records, spanning from 2013 to 2023. The findings have been organized in three major themes: in the first theme, we consider the potential harms of PRS to individuals and their kin. In the theme "Threats to health equity," we consider ethical concerns of social relevance, with a focus on justice issues. Finally, the theme "Towards best practices" collects a series of research priorities and provisional recommendations to be considered for an optimal clinical translation of PRS. We conclude that the use of PRS in clinical care reinvigorates old debates in matters of health justice; however, open questions, regarding best practices in clinical counseling, suggest that the ethical considerations applicable in monogenic settings will not be sufficient to face PRS emerging challenges.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores for colorectal cancer have implications for risk-based screening

BACKGROUND

Hereditary factors, including single genetic variants and family history, can be used for targeting colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but limited data exist on the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on risk-based CRC screening.

METHODS

Using longitudinal health and genomics data on 453,733 Finnish individuals including 8801 CRC cases, we estimated the impact of a genome-wide CRC PRS on CRC screening initiation age through population-calibrated incidence estimation over the life course in men and women.

RESULTS

Compared to the cumulative incidence of CRC at age 60 in Finland (the current age for starting screening in Finland), a comparable cumulative incidence was reached 5 and 11 years earlier in persons with high PRS (80-99% and >99%, respectively), while those with a low PRS (< 20%) reached comparable incidence 7 years later. The PRS was associated with increased risk of post-colonoscopy CRC after negative colonoscopy (hazard ratio 1.76 per PRS SD, 95% CI 1.54-2.01). Moreover, the PRS predicted colorectal adenoma incidence and improved incident CRC risk prediction over non-genetic risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that a CRC PRS can be used for risk stratification of CRC, with further research needed to optimally integrate the PRS into risk-based screening.

Recent advances in polygenic scores: translation, equitability, methods and FAIR tools

Polygenic scores (PGS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying individuals' genetic predisposition to disease, and many potentially clinically useful applications have been proposed. Here, we review the latest potential benefits of PGS in the clinic and challenges to implementation. PGS could augment risk stratification through combined use with traditional risk factors (demographics, disease-specific risk factors, family history, etc.), to support diagnostic pathways, to predict groups with therapeutic benefits, and to increase the efficiency of clinical trials. However, there exist challenges to maximizing the clinical utility of PGS, including FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) use and standardized sharing of the genomic data needed to develop and recalculate PGS, the equitable performance of PGS across populations and ancestries, the generation of robust and reproducible PGS calculations, and the responsible communication and interpretation of results. We outline how these challenges may be overcome analytically and with more diverse data as well as highlight sustained community efforts to achieve equitable, impactful, and responsible use of PGS in healthcare.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

Association of Family History and Polygenic Risk Score With Longitudinal Prognosis in Parkinson Disease

Background and Objectives

Evidence suggests that either family history or polygenic risk score (PRS) is associated with developing Parkinson disease (PD). However, little is known about the longitudinal prognosis of PD according to family history and higher PRS.

Methods

From the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative database, 395 patients with PD who followed up for more than 2 years were grouped into those with family history within first-degree, second-degree, and third-degree relatives (N = 127 [32.2%]) vs those without (N = 268 [67.8%]). The PRS of 386 patients was computed using whole-genome sequencing data. Longitudinal assessment of motor, cognition, and imaging based on dopaminergic degeneration was conducted during the regular follow-up period. Effects of family history, PRS, or both on longitudinal changes of cognition, motor severity, and nigrostriatal degeneration were tested using a linear mixed model. The risk of freezing of gait (FOG) according to family history was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression models.

Results

During a median follow-up of 9.1 years, PD with positive family history showed a slower decline of caudate dopamine transporter uptake (β estimate of family history × time = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.002-0.036, p = 0.027). Family history of PD and higher PRS were independently associated with a slower decline of Montreal Cognitive Assessment (β estimate of family history × time = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.02-0.22, p = 0.017; β estimate of PRS × time = 0.09, 95% CI = 0.03-0.16, p = 0.006). In those 364 patients without FOG at baseline, PD with positive family history had a lower risk of FOG (hazard ratio of family history = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.38-0.84, p = 0.005).

Discussion

Having a family history of PD predicts slower progression of cognitive decline and caudate dopaminergic degeneration, and less FOG compared with those without a family history independent of PRS. Taken together, information on family history could be used as a proxy for the clinical heterogeneity of PD.

Trial Registration Information

The study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01141023), and the enrollment began June 1, 2010.

Evaluating the Efficacy of Type 2 Diabetes Polygenic Risk Scores in an Independent European Population

Numerous type 2 diabetes (T2D) polygenic risk scores (PGSs) have been developed to predict individuals' predisposition to the disease. An independent assessment and verification of the best-performing PGS are warranted to allow for a rapid application of developed models. To date, only 3% of T2D PGSs have been evaluated. In this study, we assessed all (n = 102) presently published T2D PGSs in an independent cohort of 3718 individuals, which has not been included in the construction or fine-tuning of any T2D PGS so far. We further chose the best-performing PGS, assessed its performance across major population principal component analysis (PCA) clusters, and compared it with newly developed population-specific T2D PGS. Our findings revealed that 88% of the published PGSs were significantly associated with T2D; however, their performance was lower than what had been previously reported. We found a positive association of PGS improvement over the years (p-value = 8.01 × 10-4 with PGS002771 currently showing the best discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) = 0.669) and PGS003443 exhibiting the strongest association PGS003443 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.899). Further investigation revealed no difference in PGS performance across major population PCA clusters and when compared with newly developed population-specific PGS. Our findings revealed a positive trend in T2D PGS performance, consistently identifying high-T2D-risk individuals in an independent European population.

Toward Precision Medicine in Atopic Dermatitis Using Molecular-Based Approaches

Atopic dermatitis is the most common chronic inflammatory skin disorder, affecting up to 20% of children and 10% of adults in developed countries. The pathophysiology of atopic dermatitis is complex and involves a strong genetic predisposition and T-cell driven inflammation. Although our understanding of the pathology and drivers of this disease has improved in recent years, there are still knowledge gaps in the immune pathways involved. Therefore, advances in new omics technologies in atopic dermatitis will play a key role in understanding the pathogenesis of this burden disease and could develop preventive strategies and personalized treatment strategies. In this review, we discuss the latest developments in genetics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, proteomics, and metagenomics and understand how integrating multiple omics datasets will identify potential biomarkers and uncover nets of associations between several molecular levels.

Toward Precision Medicine in Atopic Dermatitis Using Molecular-Based Approaches

Atopic dermatitis is the most common chronic inflammatory skin disorder, affecting up to 20% of children and 10% of adults in developed countries. The pathophysiology of atopic dermatitis is complex and involves a strong genetic predisposition and T-cell driven inflammation. Although our understanding of the pathology and drivers of this disease has improved in recent years, there are still knowledge gaps in the immune pathways involved. Therefore, advances in new omics technologies in atopic dermatitis will play a key role in understanding the pathogenesis of this burden disease and could develop preventive strategies and personalized treatment strategies. In this review, we discuss the latest developments in genetics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, proteomics, and metagenomics and understand how integrating multiple omics datasets will identify potential biomarkers and uncover nets of associations between several molecular levels.

Principles and methods for transferring polygenic risk scores across global populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) summarize the genetic predisposition of a complex human trait or disease and may become a valuable tool for advancing precision medicine. However, PRSs that are developed in populations of predominantly European genetic ancestries can increase health disparities due to poor predictive performance in individuals of diverse and complex genetic ancestries. We describe genetic and modifiable risk factors that limit the transferability of PRSs across populations and review the strengths and weaknesses of existing PRS construction methods for diverse ancestries. Developing PRSs that benefit global populations in research and clinical settings provides an opportunity for innovation and is essential for health equity.

Polygenic risk for depression and anterior and posterior hippocampal volume in children and adolescents

BACKGROUND

Depression has frequently been associated with smaller hippocampal volume. The hippocampus varies in function along its anterior-posterior axis, with the anterior hippocampus more strongly associated with stress and emotion processing. The goals of this study were to examine the associations among parental history of anxiety/depression, polygenic risk scores for depression (PGS-DEP), and anterior and posterior hippocampal volumes in children and adolescents. To examine specificity to PGS-DEP, we examined associations of educational attainment polygenic scores (PGS-EA) with anterior and posterior hippocampal volume.

METHODS

Participants were 350 3- to 21-year-olds (46 % female). PGS-DEP and PGS-EA were computed based on recent, large-scale genome-wide association studies. High-resolution, T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data were acquired, and a semi-automated approach was used to segment the hippocampus into anterior and posterior subregions.

RESULTS

Children and adolescents with higher polygenic risk for depression were more likely to have a parent with a history of anxiety/depression. Higher polygenic risk for depression was significantly associated with smaller anterior but not posterior hippocampal volume. PGS-EA was not associated with anterior or posterior hippocampal volumes.

LIMITATIONS

Participants in these analyses were all of European ancestry.

CONCLUSIONS

Polygenic risk for depression may lead to smaller anterior but not posterior hippocampal volume in children and adolescents, and there may be specificity of these effects to PGS-DEP rather than PGS-EA. These findings may inform the earlier identification of those in need of support and the design of more effective, personalized treatment strategies.

DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST

none.

DECLARATIONS OF INTEREST

None.

Artificial intelligence for dementia-Applied models and digital health

INTRODUCTION

The use of applied modeling in dementia risk prediction, diagnosis, and prognostics will have substantial public health benefits, particularly as "deep phenotyping" cohorts with multi-omics health data become available.

METHODS

This narrative review synthesizes understanding of applied models and digital health technologies, in terms of dementia risk prediction, diagnostic discrimination, prognosis, and progression. Machine learning approaches show evidence of improved predictive power compared to standard clinical risk scores in predicting dementia, and the potential to decompose large numbers of variables into relatively few critical predictors.

RESULTS

This review focuses on key areas of emerging promise including: emphasis on easier, more transparent data sharing and cohort access; integration of high-throughput biomarker and electronic health record data into modeling; and progressing beyond the primary prediction of dementia to secondary outcomes, for example, treatment response and physical health.

DISCUSSION

Such approaches will benefit also from improvements in remote data measurement, whether cognitive (e.g., online), or naturalistic (e.g., watch-based accelerometry).

Understanding the complex genetics and molecular mechanisms underlying glaucoma

Glaucoma is the leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. Currently the only effective treatment for glaucoma is to reduce the intraocular pressure, which can halt the progression of the disease. Highlighting the importance of identifying individuals at risk of developing glaucoma and those with early-stage glaucoma will help patients receive treatment before sight loss. However, some cases of glaucoma do not have raised intraocular pressure. In fact, glaucoma is caused by a variety of different mechanisms and has a wide range of different subtypes. Understanding other risk factors, the underlying mechanisms, and the pathology of glaucoma might lead to novel treatments and treatment of underlying diseases. In this review we present the latest research into glaucoma including the genetics and molecular basis of the disease.

The Application of Genetic Risk Scores in Rheumatic Diseases: A Perspective

Modest effect sizes have limited the clinical applicability of genetic associations with rheumatic diseases. Genetic risk scores (GRSs) have emerged as a promising solution to translate genetics into useful tools. In this review, we provide an overview of the recent literature on GRSs in rheumatic diseases. We describe six categories for which GRSs are used: (a) disease (outcome) prediction, (b) genetic commonalities between diseases, (c) disease differentiation, (d) interplay between genetics and environmental factors, (e) heritability and transferability, and (f) detecting causal relationships between traits. In our review of the literature, we identified current lacunas and opportunities for future work. First, the shortage of non-European genetic data restricts the application of many GRSs to European populations. Next, many GRSs are tested in settings enriched for cases that limit the transferability to real life. If intended for clinical application, GRSs are ideally tested in the relevant setting. Finally, there is much to elucidate regarding the co-occurrence of clinical traits to identify shared causal paths and elucidate relationships between the diseases. GRSs are useful instruments for this. Overall, the ever-continuing research on GRSs gives a hopeful outlook into the future of GRSs and indicates significant progress in their potential applications.

Polygenic risk scores as a marker for epilepsy risk across lifetime and after unspecified seizure events

A diagnosis of epilepsy has significant consequences for an individual but is often challenging in clinical practice. Novel biomarkers are thus greatly needed. Here, we investigated how common genetic factors (epilepsy polygenic risk scores, [PRSs]) influence epilepsy risk in detailed longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) of > 360k Finns spanning up to 50 years of individuals' lifetimes. Individuals with a high genetic generalized epilepsy PRS (PRSGGE) in FinnGen had an increased risk for genetic generalized epilepsy (GGE) (hazard ratio [HR] 1.55 per PRSGGE standard deviation [SD]) across their lifetime and after unspecified seizure events. Effect sizes of epilepsy PRSs were comparable to effect sizes in clinically curated data supporting our EHR-derived epilepsy diagnoses. Within 10 years after an unspecified seizure, the GGE rate was 37% when PRSGGE > 2 SD compared to 5.6% when PRSGGE < -2 SD. The effect of PRSGGE was even larger on GGE subtypes of idiopathic generalized epilepsy (IGE) (HR 2.1 per SD PRSGGE). We further report significantly larger effects of PRSGGE on epilepsy in females and in younger age groups. Analogously, we found significant but more modest focal epilepsy PRS burden associated with non-acquired focal epilepsy (NAFE). We found PRSGGE specifically associated with GGE in comparison with >2000 independent diseases while PRSNAFE was also associated with other diseases than NAFE such as back pain. Here, we show that epilepsy specific PRSs have good discriminative ability after a first seizure event i.e. in circumstances where the prior probability of epilepsy is high outlining a potential to serve as biomarkers for an epilepsy diagnosis.

Advancing the communication of genetic risk for cardiometabolic diseases: a critical interpretive synthesis

BACKGROUND

Genetics play an important role in risk for cardiometabolic diseases-including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and obesity. Existing research has explored the clinical utility of genetic risk tools such as polygenic risk scores-and whether interventions communicating genetic risk information using these tools can impact on individuals' cognitive appraisals of disease risk and/or preventative health behaviours. Previous systematic reviews suggest mixed results. To expand current understanding and address knowledge gaps, we undertook an interpretive, reflexive method of evidence synthesis-questioning the theoretical basis behind current interventions that communicate genetic risk information and exploring how the effects of genetic risk tools can be fully harnessed for cardiometabolic diseases.

METHODS

We obtained 189 records from a combination of database, website and grey literature searches-supplemented with reference chaining and expert subject knowledge within the review team. Using pre-defined critical interpretive synthesis methods, quantitative and qualitative evidence was synthesised and critiqued alongside theoretical understanding from surrounding fields of behavioural and social sciences.

FINDINGS

Existing interventions communicating genetic risk information focus predominantly on the "self", targeting individual-level cognitive appraisals, such as perceived risk and perceived behavioural control. This approach risks neglecting the role of contextual factors and upstream determinants that can reinforce individuals' interpretations of risk. It also assumes target populations to embody an "ascetic subject of compliance"-the idea of a patient who strives to comply diligently with professional medical advice, logically and rationally adopting any recommended lifestyle changes. We developed a synthesising argument-"beyond the ascetic subject of compliance"-grounded in three major limitations of this perspective: (1) difficulty applying existing theories/models to diverse populations, (2) the role of familial variables and (3) the need for a life course perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions communicating genetic risk information should account for wider influences that can affect individuals' responses to risk at different levels-including through interactions with their family systems, socio-cultural environments and wider health provision.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021289269.

Ability of a polygenic risk score to refine colorectal cancer risk in Lynch syndrome

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been used to stratify colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in the general population, whereas its role in Lynch syndrome (LS), the most common type of hereditary CRC, is still conflicting. We aimed to assess the ability of PRS to refine CRC risk prediction in European-descendant individuals with LS.

METHODS

1465 individuals with LS (557 MLH1, 517 MSH2/EPCAM, 299 MSH6 and 92 PMS2) and 5656 CRC-free population-based controls from two independent cohorts were included. A 91-SNP PRS was applied. A Cox proportional hazard regression model with 'family' as a random effect and a logistic regression analysis, followed by a meta-analysis combining both cohorts were conducted.

RESULTS

Overall, we did not observe a statistically significant association between PRS and CRC risk in the entire cohort. Nevertheless, PRS was significantly associated with a slightly increased risk of CRC or advanced adenoma (AA), in those with CRC diagnosed <50 years and in individuals with multiple CRCs or AAs diagnosed <60 years.

CONCLUSION

The PRS may slightly influence CRC risk in individuals with LS in particular in more extreme phenotypes such as early-onset disease. However, the study design and recruitment strategy strongly influence the results of PRS studies. A separate analysis by genes and its combination with other genetic and non-genetic risk factors will help refine its role as a risk modifier in LS.

Genetic and Nongenetic Components of Stroke Family History: A Population Study of Adopted and Nonadopted Individuals

Background Genetic and nongenetic factors account for the association of family history with disease risk. Comparing adopted and nonadopted individuals provides an opportunity to disentangle those factors. Methods and Results We examined associations between family history of stroke and heart disease with incident stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) in 495 640 UK Biobank participants (mean age, 56.5 years; 55% women) stratified by childhood adoption status (5747 adoptees). We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) per affected family member, and for polygenic risk scores in Cox models adjusted for baseline age and sex. A total of 12 518 strokes and 23 923 MIs occurred over a 13-year follow-up. In nonadoptees, family history of stroke and heart disease was associated with increased stroke and MI risk, with the strongest association of family history of stroke for incident stroke (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.12-1.19]) and family history of heart disease for incident MI (HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.45-1.50]). In adoptees, family history of stroke associated with incident stroke (HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.06-1.86]), but family history of heart disease was not associated with incident MI (P>0.5). Polygenic risk scores showed strong disease-specific associations in both groups. In nonadoptees, the stroke polygenic risk score mediated 6% risk between family history of stroke and incident stroke, and the MI polygenic risk score mediated 13% risk between family history of heart disease and incident MI. Conclusions Family history of stroke and heart disease increases risk for their respective conditions. Family history of stroke contains substantial potentially modifiable nongenetic risk, indicating a need for novel prevention strategies, whereas family history of heart disease represents predominantly genetic risk.

Arguments for and against the whole-genome sequencing of newborns

Recent decades have brought enormous progress in both genetics and genomics, as well as in information technology (IT). The sequence of the human genome is now known, and although our knowledge is far from complete, great progress has been made in understanding how the genome works. With the developments in storage capacity, artificial intelligence, and learning algorithms, we are now able to learn and interpret complex systems such as the human genome in a very short time. Perhaps the most important goal of learning about the human genome is to understand diseases better: how they develop; how their processes can be prevented or slowed down; and after diseases have developed, how they can be cured or their symptoms alleviated. The vast majority of diseases have a genetic background, i.e., genes, sequence variations, and gene-gene interactions play a role in most diseases to a greater or lesser extent. Accordingly, the first step is to discover which genes, or genomic variants, cause or contribute to the development of a particular disease in a given patient. Given that an individual's genome remains virtually unchanged throughout their life (with one or two exceptions, such as in the case of cancer, which is caused by somatic mutations), it might be considered advantageous to sequence the genome of every person at birth. In this paper, we set out to show the possible benefits of sequencing the entire genome of every human being at birth, while also discussing the main arguments against it.

Influence of family history on penetrance of hereditary cancers in a population setting

Background

We sought to investigate how penetrance of familial cancer syndromes varies with family history using a population-based cohort.

Methods

We analysed 454,712 UK Biobank participants with exome sequence and clinical data (data collected between March 2006 and June 2021). We identified participants with a self-reported family history of breast or colorectal cancer and a pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant in the major genes responsible for hereditary breast cancer or Lynch syndrome. We calculated survival to cancer diagnosis (controlled for sex, death, recruitment centre, screening and prophylactic surgery).

Findings

Women with a pathogenic BRCA1 or BRCA2 variant had an increased risk of breast cancer that was higher in those with a first-degree family history (relative hazard 10.3 and 7.8, respectively) than those without (7.2 and 4.7). Penetrance to age 60 was also higher in those with a family history (44.7%, CI 32.2-59.3 and 24.1%, CI 17.5-32.6) versus those without (22.8%, CI 15.9-32.0 and 17.9%, CI 13.8-23.0). A similar pattern was seen in Lynch syndrome: individuals with a pathogenic MLH1, MSH2 or MSH6 variant had an increased risk of colorectal cancer that was significantly higher in those with a family history (relative hazard 35.6, 48.0 and 9.9) than those without (13.0, 15.4 and 7.2). Penetrance to age 60 was also higher for carriers of a pathogenic MLH1 or MSH2 variant in those with a family history (30.9%, CI 18.1-49.3 and 38.3%, CI 21.5-61.8) versus those without (20.5% CI 9.6-40.5 and 8.3% CI 2.1-30.4), but not for MSH6 (6.5% CI 2.7-15.1 with family history versus 8.3%, CI 5.1-13.2). Relative risk increases were also observed both within and across conditions.

Interpretation

Individuals with pathogenic cancer syndrome variants may be at a less elevated risk of cancer in the absence of a first-degree family history, so in the context of results return, family history should be considered when counselling patients on the risks and benefits of potential follow-up care.

Funding

The current work is supported by the MRC (grant no MR/T00200X/1). The MRC had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Assessing the performance of European-derived cardiometabolic polygenic risk scores in South-Asians and their interplay with family history

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to assess the performance of European-derived polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for common metabolic diseases such as coronary artery disease (CAD), obesity, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the South Asian (SAS) individuals in the UK Biobank. Additionally, we studied the interaction between PRS and family history (FH) in the same population.

METHODS

To calculate the PRS, we used a previously published model derived from the EUR population and applied it to the individuals of SAS ancestry from the UKB study. Each PRS was adjusted according to an individual's genotype location in the principal components (PC) space to derive an ancestry adjusted PRS (aPRS). We calculated the percentiles based on aPRS and stratified individuals into three aPRS categories: low, intermediate, and high. Considering the intermediate-aPRS percentile as a reference, we compared the low and high aPRS categories and generated the odds ratio (OR) estimates. Further, we measured the combined role of aPRS and first-degree family history (FH) in the SAS population.

RESULTS

The risk of developing severe obesity for SAS individuals was almost twofold higher for individuals with high aPRS than for those with intermediate aPRS, with an OR of 1.95 (95% CI = 1.71-2.23, P < 0.01). At the same time, the risk of severe obesity was lower in the low-aPRS group (OR = 0.60, CI = 0.53-0.67, P < 0.01). Results in the same direction were found in the EUR data, where the low-PRS group had an OR of 0.53 (95% CI = 0.51-0.56, P < 0.01) and the high-PRS group had an OR of 2.06 (95% CI = 2.00-2.12, P < 0.01). We observed similar results for CAD and T2D. Further, we show that SAS individuals with a familial history of CAD and T2D with high-aPRS are associated with a higher risk of these diseases, implying a greater genetic predisposition.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that CAD, obesity, and T2D GWAS summary statistics generated predominantly from the EUR population can be potentially used to derive aPRS in SAS individuals for risk stratification. With future GWAS recruiting more SAS participants and tailoring the PRSs towards SAS ancestry, the predictive power of PRS is likely to improve further.

Residual insulin secretion in individuals with type 1 diabetes in Finland: longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses

BACKGROUND

Contrary to the presumption that type 1 diabetes leads to an absolute insulin deficiency, many individuals with type 1 diabetes have circulating C-peptide years after the diagnosis. We studied factors affecting random serum C-peptide concentration in individuals with type 1 diabetes and the association with diabetic complications.

METHODS

Our longitudinal analysis included individuals newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes from Helsinki University Hospital (Helsinki, Finland) with repeated random serum C-peptide and concomitant glucose measurements from within 3 months of diagnosis and at least once later. The long-term cross-sectional analysis included data from participants from 57 centres in Finland who had type 1 diabetes diagnosed after 5 years of age, initiation of insulin treatment within 1 year from diagnosis, and a C-peptide concentration of less than 1·0 nmol/L (FinnDiane study) and patients with type 1 diabetes from the DIREVA study. We tested the association of random serum C-peptide concentrations and polygenic risk scores with one-way ANOVA, and association of random serum C-peptide concentrations, polygenic risk scores, and clinical factors with logistic regression.

FINDINGS

The longitudinal analysis included 847 participants younger than 16 years and 110 aged 16 years or older. In the longitudinal analysis, age at diagnosis strongly correlated with the decline in C-peptide secretion. The cross-sectional analysis included 3984 participants from FinnDiane and 645 from DIREVA. In the cross-sectional analysis, at a median duration of 21·6 years (IQR 12·5-31·2), 776 (19·4%) of 3984 FinnDiane participants had residual random serum C-peptide secretion (>0·02 nmol/L), which was associated with lower type 1 diabetes polygenic risk compared with participants without random serum C-peptide (p<0·0001). Random serum C-peptide was inversely associated with hypertension, HbA1c, and cholesterol, but also independently with microvascular complications (adjusted OR 0·61 [95% CI 0·38-0·96], p=0·033, for nephropathy; 0·55 [0·34-0·89], p=0·014, for retinopathy).

INTERPRETATION

Although children with multiple autoantibodies and HLA risk genotypes progressed to absolute insulin deficiency rapidly, many adolescents and adults had residual random serum C-peptide decades after the diagnosis. Polygenic risk of type 1 and type 2 diabetes affected residual random serum C-peptide. Even low residual random serum C-peptide concentrations seemed to be associated with a beneficial complications profile.

FUNDING

Folkhälsan Research Foundation; Academy of Finland; University of Helsinki and Helsinki University Hospital; Medical Society of Finland; the Sigrid Juselius Foundation; the "Liv and Hälsa" Society; Novo Nordisk Foundation; and State Research Funding via the Helsinki University Hospital, the Vasa Hospital District, Turku University Hospital, Vasa Central Hospital, Jakobstadsnejdens Heart Foundation, and the Medical Foundation of Vaasa.

Refining Risk for Alzheimer's Disease Among Heterozygous APOEɛ4 Carriers

In a large population-based cohort, we show not all heterozygous APOEɛ4 carriers are at increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD); a significantly higher AD proportion was only found for ɛ3/ɛ4, not ɛ2/ɛ4. Among ɛ3/ɛ4 carriers (24% in the cohort), the AD proportion differed considerably by polygenic risk score (PRS). In particular, the AD proportion was lower than the entire cohort for subjects in the bottom 20-percentile PRS and was higher than that of homozygous ɛ4 carriers for subjects at the top 5th-percentile PRS. Family history was no longer a significant predictor of AD risk after adjusting APOE and PRS.

Genomic Innovation in Early Life Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Treatment

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Although CVD events do not typically manifest until older adulthood, CVD develops gradually across the life-course, beginning with the elevation of risk factors observed as early as childhood or adolescence and the emergence of subclinical disease that can occur in young adulthood or midlife. Genomic background, which is determined at zygote formation, is among the earliest risk factors for CVD. With major advances in molecular technology, including the emergence of gene-editing techniques, along with deep whole-genome sequencing and high-throughput array-based genotyping, scientists now have the opportunity to not only discover genomic mechanisms underlying CVD but use this knowledge for the life-course prevention and treatment of these conditions. The current review focuses on innovations in the field of genomics and their applications to monogenic and polygenic CVD prevention and treatment. With respect to monogenic CVD, we discuss how the emergence of whole-genome sequencing technology has accelerated the discovery of disease-causing variants, allowing comprehensive screening and early, aggressive CVD mitigation strategies in patients and their families. We further describe advances in gene editing technology, which might soon make possible cures for CVD conditions once thought untreatable. In relation to polygenic CVD, we focus on recent innovations that leverage findings of genome-wide association studies to identify druggable gene targets and develop predictive genomic models of disease, which are already facilitating breakthroughs in the life-course treatment and prevention of CVD. Gaps in current research and future directions of genomics studies are also discussed. In aggregate, we hope to underline the value of leveraging genomics and broader multiomics information for characterizing CVD conditions, work which promises to expand precision approaches for the life-course prevention and treatment of CVD.

Selection, optimization, and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have improved in predictive performance supporting their use in clinical practice. Reduced predictive performance of PRS in diverse populations can exacerbate existing health disparities. The NHGRI-funded eMERGE Network is returning a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children. We assessed PRS performance, medical actionability, and potential clinical utility for 23 conditions. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. Ten conditions were selected with a range of high-risk thresholds: atrial fibrillation, breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, prostate cancer, asthma, type 1 diabetes, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation, used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, created a framework for regulatory compliance, and developed a PRS clinical report. eMERGE's experience informs the infrastructure needed to implement PRS-based implementation in diverse clinical settings.

Genetic and non-genetic components of family history of stroke and heart disease: a population-based study among adopted and non-adopted individuals

Background

It is increasingly clear that genetic and non-genetic factors account for the association of family history with disease risk in offspring. We sought to distinguish the genetic and non-genetic contributions of family history of stroke and heart disease on incident events by examining adopted and non-adopted individuals.

Methods

We examined associations between family history of stroke and heart disease with incident stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) in 495,640 participants of the UK Biobank (mean age 56.5 years, 55% female) stratified by early childhood adoption status into adoptees (n=5,747) and non-adoptees (n=489,893). We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) per affected nuclear family member, and for polygenic risk scores (PRS) for stroke and MI in Cox models adjusted for baseline age and sex.

Results

12,518 strokes and 23,923 MIs occurred over a 13-year follow-up. In non-adoptees, family history of stroke and heart disease were associated with increased stroke and MI risk, with the strongest association of family history of stroke for incident stroke (HR 1.16 [1.12, 1.19]) and family history of heart disease for incident MI (HR 1.48 [1.45, 1.50]). In adoptees, family history of stroke associated with incident stroke (HR 1.41 [1.06, 1.86]), but family history of heart disease did not associate with incident MI (p>0.5). PRS showed strong disease-specific associations in adoptees and non-adoptees. In non-adoptees, the stroke PRS mediated 6% risk between family history of stroke and incident stroke, and the MI PRS mediated 13% risk between family history of heart disease and MI.

Conclusions

Family history of stroke and heart disease increase risk for their respective conditions. Family history of stroke contains a substantial proportion of potentially modifiable non-genetic risk, indicating a need for further research to elucidate these elements for novel prevention strategies, whereas family history of heart disease represents predominantly genetic risk.

Association of air pollution and genetic risks with incidence of elderly-onset atopic dermatitis: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Elderly-onset atopic dermatitis (AD) is a remarkable subtype and has been put on the agenda owing to its difficulty to control. Understanding the influence of genetic and environmental exposures is crucial to preventing elderly-onset AD.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the association between genes and air pollution on incident elderly-onset AD.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This study was based on UK Biobank that recruited over 500,000 participants. The genetic risks were categorized into low, intermediate, and high groups according to tertiles of polygenic risk scores. Mixed exposure to various air pollutants was assessed using the weighted quantile sum (WQS) and also categorized based on tertiles. Within each genetic risk group, whether air pollutant mixture was associated with incident elderly-onset AD was estimated.

RESULTS

337,910 participants were included in the final analysis, and the mean age was 57.1. The median years for follow-up were 12.0, and the incident cases of AD were 2545. The medium and high air pollution mixture was significantly associated with incident AD compared with the low pollution group, with HRs of 1.182 (P = 0.003) and 1.359 (P < 0.001), respectively. In contrast, HR for medium and high genetic susceptibility was only 1.065 (P = 0.249) and 1.153 (P = 0.008). The population-attributable fraction of air pollution and genetic risk was 15.5 % (P < 0.001) and 6.4 % (P = 0.004). Additionally, compared with low genetic risk and low air pollution, high genetic risk and high air pollution was significantly associated with the incidence of elderly-onset AD with a HR of up to 1.523 (P < 0.001). There were no interactive effects between each group of genetic risks and air pollution. When grouped by sex, females could observe a stronger effect by genetic and air pollutant mixture exposure.

CONCLUSION

Air pollution and genetics both independently enhance the risk of newly developed AD, and the effect of air pollutants is stronger than the investigated genes.