Decade-long trends in atrial fibrillation incidence and survival: a community study

Temporal trends in mortality and causes of death in patients with incident atrial fibrillation: a nationwide register study from 2010 to 2018

OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased mortality. Previous studies have reported conflicting results in temporal trends of mortality after AF diagnosis. We aim to address this disparity by investigating the 1-year mortality and causes of death in Finnish patients diagnosed with AF between 2010 and 2017.

DESIGN

The Finnish AntiCoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation (FinACAF) study is a nationwide retrospective register-based cohort study.

SETTING

The FinACAF study has gathered information on all Finnish AF patients between 2004 and 2018, with information from all national healthcare registers and data from all levels of care (primary, secondary and tertiary care).

PARTICIPANTS

We included patients with an incident AF diagnosis (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision code I48) between 2010 and 2017. To ensure a cohort of only incident AF, we excluded patients who used any oral anticoagulant during the year before cohort entry as well as patients with a recorded use of warfarin between 2004 and 2006. Patients under 20 years of age were excluded, and patients with permanent migration abroad before 1 January 2019 were excluded, N=157 658.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

1-year all-cause, cardiovascular (CV) and cause-specific mortality following AF diagnosis.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 157 658 incident AF cases (50.1% male, mean age 72.9 years). Both all-cause and CV mortality declined from cohort entry years 2010-2017 (from 12.9% to 10.6%, mortality rate ratio (MRR) 0.77; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.82 in cohort entry year 2017 with 2010 as reference; and from 7.4% to 5.2%, MRR 0.68; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.74, respectively). Overall mortality and CV mortality were lower in women than in men throughout the study period (MRR 0.66; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.69 and MRR 0.53; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.56, respectively). Deaths attributable to ischaemic heart disease decreased during the study period (from 30.7% to 21.6%, MRR 0.51; 95% CI 0.49 to 0.62 in 2017 vs 2010), whereas dementia and Alzheimer's disease increased as a cause of death over time (6.2% to 9.9%, MRR 1.19; 95% CI 0.96 to 1.48 in 2017 vs 2010). The CHA2DS2-VASc score associated strongly with 1-year survival (p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reiterates that mortality after diagnosis of AF has decreased. The CHA2DS2-VASc score highlights the need to treat comorbidities as it strongly associates with patient 1-year survival after initial AF diagnosis.

Incremental value of diastolic wall strain in predicting heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation

Diastolic wall strain (DWS), an echocardiographic index based on linear elasticity theory, has been identified as a predictor of heart failure (HF) in patients with sinus rhythm. However, its effectiveness in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients remains uncertain. This study aims to assess DWS as a predictor of HF in AF patients with preserved ejection fraction. We analysed a prospective database of AF patients undergoing transthoracic echocardiography. AF patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (< 50%), posterior wall motion abnormality, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, valvular heart disease, pericardial disease, congenital heart disease, or history of pacemaker/implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation or cardiac surgery were excluded. The study followed patients until HF development, death, or last visit. Follow-up for patients who underwent catheter ablation was censored on the date of their procedure. HF was ascertained based on the Framingham criteria. DWS was calculated using a validated formula: DWS = (PWs -PWd)/PWs, where PWs is the posterior wall thickness at end-systole and PWd is the posterior wall thickness at end-diastole. Among 411 study patients (mean age 69.6 years, 66% men), 20 (5%) was underwent catheter ablation and 57 (14%) developed HF during a mean follow-up of 82 months. Cox-proportional hazards demonstrated that low DWS (≤ 0.33) significantly predicted HF events (hazard ratio [HR] 3.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]) 1.81-5.94, P < 0.0001), independent of age (per 10 years; HR 1.99, 95% CI 1.35-2.93, P < 0.001), indexed left ventricular mass (per 10 g/m2; HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.27, P < 0.01), and indexed left atrial volume (per 10 mL/m2; HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.24, P < 0.01). Additionally, global log-likelihood ratio chi-square statistics indicated that DWS incrementally predicts HF development beyond age, indexed left ventricular mass, and left atrial volume (P < 0.001).

Birth cohort effects on diagnosed atrial fibrillation incidence: nationwide cohort study from 1980 to 2018

BACKGROUND

The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) shows substantial temporal trends, but the contribution of birth cohort effects is unknown. These effects refer to the relationship between birth year and the likelihood of developing AF. We aimed to assess trends in cumulative incidence of diagnosed AF across birth cohorts and to disentangle the effects of age, birth cohort and calendar period by using age-period-cohort analyses.

METHODS

In a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study, 4.7 million individuals were selected at a given index age (45, 55, 65 and 75 years) free of AF and followed up for diagnosed AF. For each index age, we assessed trends in 10-year cumulative incidence of AF across six 5-year birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model was estimated using Poisson regression with constrained spline functions collapsing data into 1-year intervals across ages and calendar years.

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence of AF diagnosis increased across birth cohorts for all index ages (ptrend<0.001). Compared with the first birth cohort, the diagnosed AF incidence rate ratio in the last birth cohort was 3.0 (95% CI 2.9 to 3.2) for index age 45 years, 2.9 (2.8 to 3.0) for 55 years, 2.8 (2.7 to 2.8) for 65 years and 2.7 (2.6 to 2.7) for 75 years. Age-period-cohort analyses showed substantial birth cohort effects independent of age, with no clear period effect. Compared with individuals born in 1930, the diagnosed AF incidence rate was 0.125 smaller among individuals born in 1885 and was four times larger among individuals born in 1975.

CONCLUSION

Substantial birth cohort effects, independent of age and calendar period, influence trends in diagnosed AF incidence.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Temporal trends of cause-specific mortality after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Reports of outcomes after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis are conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and hospitalization rates following AF diagnosis over time, by cause and by patient features.

METHODS

Individuals aged ≥16 years with a first diagnosis of AF were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset from 1 January 2001, to 31 December 2017. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality and hospitalization at 1 year following diagnosis. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) for mortality and incidence RRs (IRRs) for hospitalization and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing 2001/02 and 2016/17, adjusted for age, sex, region, socio-economic status, and 18 major comorbidities.

RESULTS

Of 72 412 participants, mean (standard deviation) age was 75.6 (12.4) years, and 44 762 (61.8%) had ≥3 comorbidities. All-cause mortality declined (RR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 0.72; 95% CI 0.65-0.80), with large declines for cardiovascular (RR 0.46; 95% CI 0.37-0.58) and cerebrovascular mortality (RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29-0.60) but not for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes of death (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.80-1.04). In 2016/17, deaths caused from dementia (67, 8.0%), outstripped deaths from acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and acute stroke combined (56, 6.7%, P < .001). Overall hospitalization rates increased (IRR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), especially for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes (IRR 1.42; 95% CI 1.39-1.45). Older, more deprived, and hospital-diagnosed AF patients experienced higher event rates.

CONCLUSIONS

After AF diagnosis, cardio/cerebrovascular mortality and hospitalization has declined, whilst hospitalization for non-cardio/cerebrovascular disease has increased.

Atrial Fibrillation: a Marker or Risk Factor for Stroke

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is strongly associated with stroke risk, but an association by itself does not necessarily imply causation. The question remains whether AF is a risk factor for stroke and whether treatment that reduces the severity of AF will also reduce the burden of stroke. On the other hand, it is possible that AF is a risk marker associated with atrial insufficiency, in which structural and electrical atrial remodeling coexist, leading  to the clinical manifestations of AF and the risk of stroke simultaneously. Atrial fibrillation and stroke are inextricably linked to the classic Virchow pathophysiology, which explains thromboembolism as blood stasis in a fibrillating left atrium. This concept has been reinforced by the proven efficacy of oral anticoagulants for the prevention of stroke in AF. However, a number of observations showing that the presence of AF is neither necessary nor sufficient for stroke cast doubt on the causal role of AF in vascular brain injury. The growing recognition of the role of atrial cardiomyopathy and the atrial substrate in the development of stroke associated with AF, as well as stroke without AF, has led to a rethinking of the pathogenetic model of cardioembolic stroke. A number of recent studies have shown that AF is a direct cause of stroke. Studies in which cardiac implantable devices have been used to collect data on pre-stroke AF do not appear to show a direct time relationship. The presence of AF is neither necessary nor sufficient for stroke, which casts doubt on the causal role of AF in cerebrovascular injury. Known risk factors for stroke in the presence of AF are also recognized risk factors for ischemic stroke, regardless of the presence of AF. The risk of stroke in patients with AF in the absence of risk factors differs little from that in patients without AF. This work is devoted to an attempt to answer the question whether AF is a marker or a risk factor for ischemic stroke.

Contemporary prevalence estimates of undiagnosed and diagnosed atrial fibrillation in the United States

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence estimates vary and have been based on cohorts with clinically established or diagnosed disease. Undiagnosed AF prevalence estimates are less certain as they are based on nongeneralizable convenience samples.

HYPOTHESIS

Because AF is often asymptomatic, it my remain undiagnosed until the development of complications such as stroke or heart failure. Consequently, the observed prevalence of diagnosed AF from the literature may underestimate total disease burden. We therefore sought to estimate the total prevalence of both diagnosed and undiagnosed AF.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study from 2012 to 2017 using data from five US medical claims data sets. Undiagnosed AF prevalence was estimated based on the observed incidence of ischemic stroke, systemic embolism (SE), and AF incidence after a stroke/SE. The diagnosed AF cohort included AF patients between Q1 2014 and Q3 2015. The undiagnosed AF cohort were patients with assumed undiagnosed AF in the year before a stroke/SE and who were newly diagnosed with AF in the 3-month poststroke/SE. Stroke/SE incidence was calculated among all AF patients and the ratio of number of undiagnosed AF patients to stroke rate was created. Age- and sex-adjusted estimates were stratified by period of assumed undiagnosed AF before poststroke/SE AF diagnosis (1 or 2 years).

RESULTS

The estimated US prevalence of AF (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in Q3 2015 was 5 628 000 cases, of which 591 000 cases (11%) were undiagnosed. The assumed 2-year undiagnosed AF prevalence was 23% (1 531 000) of the total prevalent patients with AF (6 568 000). Undiagnosed (vs. diagnosed) AF patients were older and had higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Of undiagnosed AF, 93% had CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 and met OAC criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

These contemporary estimates demonstrate the high prevalence of undiagnosed AF in the United States. Undiagnosed AF patients are composed of primarily elderly individuals who if diagnosed, would meet criteria for stroke prevention therapy.

H2ARDD score as a feasible predictor of heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation: a validation study

It was reported that the H₂ARDD score (organic heart diseases = 2 points, anemia = 1 point, renal dysfunction = 1 point, diabetes = 1 point, and diuretic use = 1point; range 0 to 6 points) may help identify patients with AF at high risk for HF events. However, this score has not been externally validated. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of H₂ARDD score in predicting HF events in patients with AF. We used a prospective database of patients with AF, and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of HF events. The outcome of interest was defined as HF events including new-onset HF and death from HF. Of 562 AF patients, 518 (mean 69.7 ± 9.7 years-old, 64.9% men) met study criteria, and 84 (16.2%) developed HF events during a mean follow-up of 54 ± 42 months. In multivariable analyses, H₂ARDD score was shown as a significant predictor for HF events [hazard ratio (HR): 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36-1.79], independent of age (per 10 years, HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03-1.78). In the Kaplan-Meier analyses stratified by H₂ARDD score categories (0-2, 3-4, 5-6), the patients with higher H₂ARDD scores had significantly worse HF event-free survival (log-rank P < 0.0001). The area under the ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.77, P < 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity at a cut-off score of ≥ 3 were 60% and 71%, respectively. In conclusion, the H₂ARDD score may be feasible for HF risk stratification in patients with AF.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Circulating miR-451a Expression May Predict Recurrence in Atrial Fibrillation Patients after Catheter Pulmonary Vein Ablation

Atrial fibrillation is the most prevalent tachyarrhythmia in clinical practice, with very high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality with a high-cost impact in health systems. Currently, it is one of the main causes of stroke and subsequent heart failure and sudden death. miRNAs mediate in several processes involved in cardiovascular disease, including fibrosis and electrical and structural remodeling. Several studies suggest a key role of miRNAs in the course and maintenance of atrial fibrillation. In our study, we aimed to identify the differential expression of circulating miRNAs and their predictive value as biomarkers of recurrence in atrial fibrillation patients undergoing catheter pulmonary vein ablation. To this effect, 42 atrial fibrillation patients were recruited for catheter ablation. We measured the expression of 84 miRNAs in non-recurrent and recurrent groups (45.2%), both in plasma from peripheral and left atrium blood. Expression analysis showed that miRNA-451a is downregulated in recurrent patients. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that miR-451a in left atrium plasma could predict atrial fibrillation recurrence after pulmonary vein isolation. In addition, atrial fibrillation recurrence is positively associated with the increment of scar percentage. Our data suggest that miRNA-451a expression plays an important role in AF recurrence by controlling fibrosis and progression.

Sex-specific time trends in incident atrial fibrillation and the contribution of risk factors: the Tromsø Study 1994-2016

AIMS

To explore sex-specific time trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and to estimate the impact of changes in risk factor levels using individual participant-level data from the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 14 818 women and 13 225 men aged 25 years or older without AF were enrolled in the Tromsø Study between 1994 and 2008 and followed up for incident AF throughout 2016. Poisson regression was used for statistical analyses. During follow-up, age-adjusted AF incidence rates in women decreased from 1.19 to 0.71 per 1000 person-years. In men, AF incidence increased from 1.18 to 2.82 per 1000 person-years in 2004, and then declined to 1.94 per 1000 person-years in 2016. Changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption together accounted for 10.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): -2.4 to 28.6] of the AF incidence decline in women and for 44.7% (95% CI: 19.2; 100.0) of the AF incidence increase in men. Reduction in SBP and DBP had the largest contribution to the decrease in AF incidence in women. Increase in BMI had the largest contribution to the increase in AF incidence in men.

CONCLUSION

In the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016, AF incidence decreased in women and increased following a reverse U-shape in men. Individual changes in SBP and DBP in women and individual changes in BMI in men were the most important risk factors contributing to the AF incidence trends.

Incidence and Burden of Tricuspid Regurgitation in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is considered a risk factor for isolated tricuspid valve regurgitation (TR) in the absence of other known etiologies.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to identify the incidence of clinically significant isolated TR and its impact in patients with AF.

METHODS

A population-based record linkage system was used to identify adult patients with new-onset AF. Patients with evidence of moderate or greater tricuspid valve disease, left-sided valve disease, pulmonary hypertension, prior cardiac surgery, impaired left ventricular systolic/diastolic function at baseline were excluded. The remaining patients (n = 691) were followed over time to identify development of moderate or greater TR and assess its impact on subsequent survival.

RESULTS

A total of 232 patients (33.6%) developed moderate or greater TR. Among these, 73 patients (10.6%) had isolated TR without significant underlying structural heart disease. Incidence rate of any moderate or greater TR was 3.9 cases and that of isolated TR was 1.3 cases per 100 person-years. Permanent/persistent AF and female sex were associated with increased risk of developing TR, whereas rhythm control was associated with lower risk of TR. Over a median clinical follow-up of 13.3 years (IQR: 10.0-15.9 years), development of any moderate or greater TR (HR: 2.92; 95% CI: 2.29-3.73; P < 0.001) and isolated significant TR (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.03-2.22; P = 0.03) were associated with an adjusted increased risk of subsequent mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this population-based cohort of patients with AF, nearly one-third developed moderate or greater TR over time. Incident significant TR and incident isolated significant TR portend a worse survival in patients with AF.

Prevalence and Incidence Rates of Atrial Fibrillation in Denmark 2004–2018

Purpose

To estimate the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Denmark during 2004–2018 and to investigate whether methodological choices influence these estimates.

Patients and Methods

A register-based cohort study was conducted of all individuals aged ≥18 years in Denmark 2004–2018. The cumulative prevalence of AF at the end of the study period was calculated as the number of AF cases alive with at least one inpatient or two outpatient diagnoses during 1994–2018 divided by the number of Danish residents in 2018. Incidence rates were calculated as the number of annual AF cases with no previous diagnosis in the past 10 years (ie, a 10-year washout period) divided by the person-time contributed by the population free of AF on 1 January in the same calendar year. Furthermore, the influence of varying case definitions was investigated.

Results

The cumulative prevalence of AF was 3.0% in 2018. The incidence rate increased from 391 to 481 per 100,000 person-years (PYs) from 2004 to 2015 (1.7% average annual increase) after which it declined to 367 per 100,000 PYs in 2018 (8.5% average annual decrease). This pattern was observed in both sexes irrespective of age. Methodological choices, particularly the case definition’s strictness and the length of the washout period, had a substantial influence on the reported estimates.

Conclusion

The cumulative prevalence of AF is currently around 3.0% in the Danish population, but the incidence has declined since 2015. As these estimates are influenced by methodological choices, future studies should strive for precise reporting of study methodology.

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Frequency of Arrhythmias and Postural Orthostatic Tachycardia Syndrome in Patients With Marfan Syndrome: A Nationwide Inpatient Study

Background Marfan syndrome (MFS) is an autosomal dominant connective tissue disorder affecting multiple systems, particularly the cardiovascular system. The leading causes of death in MFS are aortopathies and valvular disease. We wanted to identify the frequency of arrhythmia and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, length of hospital stay, health care-associated costs (HAC), and in-hospital mortality in patients with MFS. Methods and Results The National Inpatient Sample database from 2005 to 2014 was queried using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes for MFS and arrhythmias. Patients were classified into subgroups: supraventricular tachycardia, ventricular tachycardia (VT), atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, and without any type of arrhythmia. Data about length of stay, HAC, and in-hospital mortality were also abstracted from National Inpatient Sample database. Adjusted HAC was calculated as multiplying HAC and cost-to-charge ratio; 12 079 MFS hospitalizations were identified; 1893 patients (15.7%) had an arrhythmia; and 4.9% of the patients had postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome. Median values of length of stay and adjusted HAC in VT group were the highest among the groups (VT: 6 days, $18 975.8; supraventricular tachycardia: 4 days, $11 906.6; atrial flutter: 4 days, $11 274.5; atrial fibrillation: 5 days, $10431.4; without any type of arrhythmia: 4 days, $8336.6; both P=0.0001). VT group had highest in-patient mortality (VT: 5.3%, atrial fibrillation: 4.1%, without any type of arrhythmia: 2.1%, atrial flutter: 1.7%, supraventricular tachycardia: 0%; P<0.0001) even after adjustment for potential confounders (without any type of arrhythmia versus VT; odds ratio [95% CI]: 3.18 [1.62-6.24], P=0.001). Conclusions Arrhythmias and postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome in MFS were high and associated with increased length of stay, HAC, and in-hospital mortality especially in patients with VT.

Associations of Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery With Stroke, Subsequent Arrhythmia, and Death : A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) after noncardiac surgery confers increased risks for ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA). How outcomes for postoperative AF after noncardiac surgery compare with those for AF occurring outside of the operative setting is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the risks for ischemic stroke or TIA and other outcomes in patients with postoperative AF versus those with incident AF not associated with surgery.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Olmsted County, Minnesota.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with incident AF between 2000 and 2013.

MEASUREMENTS

Patients were categorized as having AF occurring within 30 days of a noncardiac surgery (postoperative AF) or having AF unrelated to surgery (nonoperative AF).

RESULTS

Of 4231 patients with incident AF, 550 (13%) had postoperative AF as their first-ever documented AF presentation. Over a mean follow-up of 6.3 years, 486 patients had an ischemic stroke or TIA and 2462 had subsequent AF; a total of 2565 deaths occurred. The risk for stroke or TIA was similar between those with postoperative AF and nonoperative AF (absolute risk difference [ARD] at 5 years, 0.1% [95% CI, -2.9% to 3.1%]; hazard ratio [HR], 1.01 [CI, 0.77 to 1.32]). A lower risk for subsequent AF was seen for patients with postoperative AF (ARD at 5 years, -13.4% [CI, -17.8% to -9.0%]; HR, 0.68 [CI, 0.60 to 0.77]). Finally, no difference was seen for cardiovascular death or all-cause death between patients with postoperative AF and nonoperative AF.

LIMITATION

The population consisted predominantly of White patients; caution should be used when extrapolating the results to more racially diverse populations.

CONCLUSION

Postoperative AF after noncardiac surgery is associated with similar risk for thromboembolism compared with nonoperative AF. Our findings have potentially important implications for the early postsurgical and subsequent management of postoperative AF.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Aging.

The association between the prognostic nutritional index and 28-day mortality among atrial fibrillation patients in China over 80 years of age

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS

The most prevalent form of cardiac rhythm abnormality among older populations is atrial fibrillation (AF). The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is a reliable predictor of mortality in various diseases. The association between the PNI and mortality among AF patients over 80 years remains uncleared.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A retrospective assessment of AF cases admitted to a single cardiovascular disease unit in China between January 2015 and June 2020 was performed. The PNI at admission was defined as 10 × serum albumin (g/dL) + 0.005 × total lymphocyte count (per mm³). The association between PNI and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related or all-cause mortality within 28 days was assessed via multivariable Cox regression. The analysis included 1141 patients. The CVD-related and all-cause mortality rates were 3.3% and 8.7%. Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed that cases with lower PNI tertiles exhibited higher all-cause mortality (T1: 7.6%; T2: 6.1%; T3: 2.4%, P < 0.001) or CVD mortality (T1: 6.3%; T2: 2.9%; T3: 0.8%, P < 0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, continuous PNI was negatively related to the hazard of all-cause mortality (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.89, 0.96) and CVD-related mortality (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.84, 0.95). Compared to the T1 group, patients with a higher PNI exhibited a lower risk of all-cause mortality (P for trend 0.003) and CVD-related mortality (P for trend 0.005). Among most subgroups, CVD-related and all-cause mortality decreased with elevating PNI values.

CONCLUSIONS

PNI is significantly negatively correlated with CVD-related and all-cause mortality among AF cases over 80 years.

Thirty-Year Trends in the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation: The ARIC Study

Background Long-term data to study recent trends in the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF), overall and among sex and race groups, are scarce. We evaluated the 30-year trends in the incidence of AF in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study cohort and explored race and sex differences in these trends. Methods and Results We included 15 343 men and women aged 45 to 64 years in 1987 to 1989 without AF from 4 US communities in the ARIC cohort. Incident AF was identified based on study ECGs, hospital discharge codes, and death certificates through 2017. We calculated age and period-specific incidence rates (IRs) of AF. We used Poisson regression to calculate IR ratios of AF over time adjusting for age, sex, and race. A total of 3241 AF cases were identified during a mean (SD) follow-up of 22 years (8.4 years) (599 in Black participants, 2642 in White participants, 1582 in women, and 1659 in men). Overall, the IR of AF in the ARIC cohort was 9.6 per 1000 person-years (6.9 in Black participants, 10.5 in White participants, 8.1 in women, and 11.6 in men). Age-specific IR by time period did not show significant changes over time. In a model adjusted for sex, race, and age group, the rate of AF did not change significantly from 1987 to 1991 compared with 2012 to 2017 (IR ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.88-1.36] comparing 2012-2017 with 1987-1991). Similarly, no evidence of changes over time in AF rates were identified in men and women or White and Black participants separately. Conclusions Even though IRs of AF increase as age increases, our analysis provided evidence suggesting that the overall IRs of AF have not changed over time in a multicenter cohort of Black and White individuals in the United States from 1987 to 2017.

Identification of Incident Atrial Fibrillation From Electronic Medical Records

Background Electronic medical records are increasingly used to identify disease cohorts; however, computable phenotypes using electronic medical record data are often unable to distinguish between prevalent and incident cases. Methods and Results We identified all Olmsted County, Minnesota residents aged ≥18 with a first-ever International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) diagnostic code for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter from 2000 to 2014 (N=6177), and a random sample with an International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code from 2016 to 2018 (N=200). Trained nurse abstractors reviewed all medical records to validate the events and ascertain the date of onset (incidence date). Various algorithms based on number and types of codes (inpatient/outpatient), medications, and procedures were evaluated. Positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity of the algorithms were calculated. The lowest PPV was observed for 1 code (64.4%), and the highest PPV was observed for 2 codes (any type) >7 days apart but within 1 year (71.6%). Requiring either 1 inpatient or 2 outpatient codes separated by >7 days but within 1 year had the best balance between PPV (69.9%) and sensitivity (95.5%). PPVs were slightly higher using ICD-10 codes. Requiring an anticoagulant or antiarrhythmic prescription or electrical cardioversion in addition to diagnostic code(s) modestly improved the PPVs at the expense of large reductions in sensitivity. Conclusions We developed simple, exportable, computable phenotypes for atrial fibrillation using structured electronic medical record data. However, use of diagnostic codes to identify incident atrial fibrillation is prone to some misclassification. Further study is warranted to determine whether more complex phenotypes, including unstructured data sources or using machine learning techniques, may improve the accuracy of identifying incident atrial fibrillation.

Epidemiology of atrial fibrillation in the All of Us Research Program

BACKGROUND

The prevalence, incidence and risk factors of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large, geographically and ethnically diverse cohort in the United States have not been fully described.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 173,099 participants of the All of Us Research Program recruited in the period 2017-2019, with 92,318 of them having electronic health records (EHR) data available, and 35,483 having completed a medical history survey. Presence of AF at baseline was identified from self-report and EHR records. Incident AF was obtained from EHR. Demographic, anthropometric and clinical risk factors were obtained from questionnaires, baseline physical measurements and EHR.

RESULTS

At enrollment, mean age was 52 years old (range 18-89). Females and males accounted for 61% and 39% respectively. Non-Hispanic Whites accounted for 67% of participants, with non-Hispanic Blacks, non-Hispanic Asians and Hispanics accounting for 26%, 4% and 3% of participants, respectively. Among 92,318 participants with available EHR data, 3,885 (4.2%) had AF at the time of study enrollment, while the corresponding figure among 35,483 with medical history data was 2,084 (5.9%). During a median follow-up of 16 months, 354 new cases of AF were identified among 88,433 eligible participants. Individuals who were older, male, non-Hispanic white, had higher body mass index, or a prior history of heart failure or coronary heart disease had higher prevalence and incidence of AF.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiology of AF in the All of Us Research Program is similar to that reported in smaller studies with careful phenotyping, highlighting the value of this new resource for the study of AF and, potentially, other cardiovascular diseases.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2022 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2022 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population and an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, and the global burden of cardiovascular disease and healthy life expectancy.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

A drug utilization study of oral anticoagulants in five representative cities of China between 2015 and 2019

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE

Oral anticoagulants (OACs), including warfarin and newer direct-acting OACs (DOACs), have been used for decades to prevent thromboembolic diseases. A drug utilization study was performed to determine the prescribing patterns of OACs.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Cooperation Project of Hospital Prescription Analysis in China. A total of 455,490 prescription records from 43 tertiary hospitals in five cities of China (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Chengdu) were selected for inclusion. Quarterly trends of defined daily doses (DDDs) and defined daily dose cost (DDDC) from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019 were calculated.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Warfarin was the most widely used OAC with DDDs between 189,982 and 176,323 from the first quarter (Q1) of 2015 to the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2019, whereas the use of DOACs increased rapidly during this period. DDDs of rivaroxaban increased from 5409 in Q1 of 2015 to 125,800 in Q4 of 2019, whereas the DDDC declined from 160.5 to 45.7. From Q1 of 2018, rivaroxaban became the most prescribed OAC, surpassing warfarin, in patients diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis. In addition, the DDDs of rivaroxaban exceeded those of warfarin in patients diagnosed with non-valvular atrial fibrillation since the second quarter (Q2) of 2019. DDDs in outpatients and inpatients increased by 80.6% and 71.4%, respectively, and the DDDC for outpatients in Q4 of 2019 was 6.7-fold higher than that in Q1 of 2015. Among patients of all ages, the DDDs in elderly patients increased from 36.8% in Q1 of 2015 to 59.4% in Q4 of 2019. Moreover, the departments of cardiology and cardiothoracic surgery prescribed the majority of the OACs.

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

In this study, we describe OAC prescription patterns in China. DOACs, especially rivaroxaban, contribute to the continuous increase in the use of OACs. In the investigated population of China, outpatients and elderly patients were observed to be administered the highest proportion of DOACs.

Shared decision-making in atrial fibrillation: patient-reported involvement in treatment decisions

AIMS

To determine the extent of shared decision-making (SDM), during selection of oral anticoagulant (OAC) and rhythm control treatments, in patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We evaluated survey data from 1006 patients with new-onset AF enrolled at 56 US sites participating in the SATELLITE substudy of the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT II). Patients completed surveys at enrolment and at 6-month follow-up. Patients were asked about who made their AF treatment decisions. Shared decision-making was classified as one that the patient felt was an autonomous decision or a shared decision with their healthcare provider (HCP). Approximately half of patients reported that their OAC treatment decisions were made entirely by their HCP. Compared with those reporting no SDM, patients reporting SDM for OAC were more often female (47.2% vs. 38.4%), while patients reporting SDM for rhythm control were more often male (62.2% vs. 57.6%). The most important factors cited by patients during decision-making for OAC were reducing stroke and bleeding risk, and their HCP's recommendations. After adjustment, patients with self-reported understanding of OAC, and rhythm control options, had higher odds of having participated in SDM [odds ratio (OR) 2.54, confidence interval (CI): 1.75-3.68 and OR 2.36, CI: 1.50-3.71, both P ≤ 0.001, respectively].

CONCLUSION

Shared decision-making is not widely implemented in contemporary AF practice. Patient understanding about available therapeutic options is associated with a more than a two-fold higher likelihood of SDM, and may be a potential target for future interventions.

Longitudinal cohorts for harnessing the electronic health record for disease prediction in a US population

PURPOSE

The depth and breadth of clinical data within electronic health record (EHR) systems paired with innovative machine learning methods can be leveraged to identify novel risk factors for complex diseases. However, analysing the EHR is challenging due to complexity and quality of the data. Therefore, we developed large electronic population-based cohorts with comprehensive harmonised and processed EHR data.

PARTICIPANTS

All individuals 30 years of age or older who resided in Olmsted County, Minnesota on 1 January 2006 were identified for the discovery cohort. Algorithms to define a variety of patient characteristics were developed and validated, thus building a comprehensive risk profile for each patient. Patients are followed for incident diseases and ageing-related outcomes. Using the same methods, an independent validation cohort was assembled by identifying all individuals 30 years of age or older who resided in the largely rural 26-county area of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin on 1 January 2013.

FINDINGS TO DATE

For the discovery cohort, 76 255 individuals (median age 49; 53% women) were identified from which a total of 9 644 221 laboratory results; 9 513 840 diagnosis codes; 10 924 291 procedure codes; 1 277 231 outpatient drug prescriptions; 966 136 heart rate measurements and 1 159 836 blood pressure (BP) measurements were retrieved during the baseline time period. The most prevalent conditions in this cohort were hyperlipidaemia, hypertension and arthritis. For the validation cohort, 333 460 individuals (median age 54; 52% women) were identified and to date, a total of 19 926 750 diagnosis codes, 10 527 444 heart rate measurements and 7 356 344 BP measurements were retrieved during baseline.

FUTURE PLANS

Using advanced machine learning approaches, these electronic cohorts will be used to identify novel sex-specific risk factors for complex diseases. These approaches will allow us to address several challenges with the use of EHR.

Incidence and Mortality Trends of Atrial Fibrillation/Atrial Flutter in the United States 1990 to 2017

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and flutter (AFL) are the most common clinically significant arrhythmias in older adults with an increasing disease burden due to an aging population. However, up-to-date trends in disease burden and regional variation remain unknown. In an observational study utilizing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, age-standardized mortality and incidence rates for AF overall and for each state in the United States (US) from 1990 to 2017 were determined. All analyses were stratified by gender. The relative change in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) over the observation period were determined. Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis. The mean ASIR per 100,000 population for men was 92 (+/-8) and for women was 62 (+/-5) in the US in 2017. The mean ASDR per 100,000 population for men was 5.8 (+/-0.3) and for women was 4.4 (+/-0.4). There were progressive increases in ASIR and ASDR in all but 1 state. The states with the greatest percentage change in incidence were New Hampshire (+13.5%) and Idaho (+16.0%) for men and women, respectively. The greatest change regarding mortality was seen in Mississippi (+26.3%) for men and Oregon (+53.8%) for women. In conclusion these findings provide updated evidence of increasing AF and/or AFL incidence and mortality on a national and regional level in the US, with women experiencing greater increases in incidence and mortality rates. This study demonstrates that the public health burden related to AF in the United States is progressively worsening but disproportionately across states and among women.

Cardiac Involvement in Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD)

Background: Facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD) is one of the most common muscular dystrophies and predominantly affects facial and shoulder girdle muscles. Previous case reports and cohort studies identified minor cardiac abnormalities in FSHD patients, but their nature and frequency remain incompletely characterized. Methods: We reviewed cardiac, neurological and genetic findings of 104 patients with genetically confirmed FSHD. Results: The most common conduction abnormality was complete (7%) or incomplete (5%) right bundle branch block (RBBB). Bifascicular block, left anterior fascicular block, complete atrioventricular block, and 2:1 atrioventricular block each occurred in 1% of patients. Atrial fibrillation or flutter were seen in 5% of patients. Eight percent of patients had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and 25% had valvular disease. The latter included aortic stenosis in 6% (severe in 4% and moderate in 2%) and moderate aortic regurgitation in 8%. Mitral valve prolapse (MVP) was present in 9% of patients without significant mitral regurgitation. There were no significant associations between structural or conduction abnormalities and age, degree of muscle weakness, or size of the 4q deletion. Conclusions: Both structural and conduction abnormalities can occur in FSHD. The most common abnormalities are benign (RBBB and MVP), but more significant cardiac involvement was also observed. The presence of cardiac abnormalities cannot be predicted from the severity of the neurological phenotype, nor from the genotype.

Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning for Identifying Incident Stroke From Electronic Health Records: Algorithm Development and Validation

Background

Stroke is an important clinical outcome in cardiovascular research. However, the ascertainment of incident stroke is typically accomplished via time-consuming manual chart abstraction. Current phenotyping efforts using electronic health records for stroke focus on case ascertainment rather than incident disease, which requires knowledge of the temporal sequence of events.

Objective

The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning–based phenotyping algorithm for incident stroke ascertainment based on diagnosis codes, procedure codes, and clinical concepts extracted from clinical notes using natural language processing.

Methods

The algorithm was trained and validated using an existing epidemiology cohort consisting of 4914 patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with manually curated incident stroke events. Various combinations of feature sets and machine learning classifiers were compared. Using a heuristic rule based on the composition of concepts and codes, we further detected the stroke subtype (ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack or hemorrhagic stroke) of each identified stroke. The algorithm was further validated using a cohort (n=150) stratified sampled from a population in Olmsted County, Minnesota (N=74,314).

Results

Among the 4914 patients with AF, 740 had validated incident stroke events. The best-performing stroke phenotyping algorithm used clinical concepts, diagnosis codes, and procedure codes as features in a random forest classifier. Among patients with stroke codes in the general population sample, the best-performing model achieved a positive predictive value of 86% (43/50; 95% CI 0.74-0.93) and a negative predictive value of 96% (96/100). For subtype identification, we achieved an accuracy of 83% in the AF cohort and 80% in the general population sample.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a machine learning–based algorithm that performed well for identifying incident stroke and for determining type of stroke. The algorithm also performed well on a sample from a general population, further demonstrating its generalizability and potential for adoption by other institutions.

Burden and causes of readmissions following initial discharge after aortic syndromes

BACKGROUND

Aortic syndromes, including aortic dissection (AD), intramural hematoma (IMH), and penetrating aortic ulcer (PAU), carry significant morbidity and mortality; few data exist regarding burden and causes of related rehospitalizations following initial discharge.

METHODS

The study was conducted using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. All adult residents (age ≥18 years) with an incident diagnosis of AD, IMH, and PAU (1995-2015) were identified from the Rochester Epidemiology Project using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and Tenth Revision codes and Hospital Adaptation of the International Classification of Diseases, second edition, codes. Assessment of any-cause (aortic and cardiovascular), aorta-related, or cardiovascular-related readmissions was determined following date of hospital discharge or diagnosis date (ie, the index event).

RESULTS

A total of 117 patients of 130 cases of AD, IMH, and PAU included in the initial study population survived the index event and were evaluated. The median age of diagnosis was 74 years, and 70 (60%) were male. A total of 79 patients (68%) experienced at least one readmission. The median time to first any-cause, cardiovascular, and aortic readmission was 143, 861, and 171 days, respectively. The cumulative incidence of any-cause readmissions at 2, 4, and 10 years was 45%, 55%, and 69%, respectively. The cumulative incidence of cardiovascular readmissions at 2, 4, and 10 years was 15%, 20%, and 28%, respectively. The cumulative incidence of aortic readmissions at 2, 4, and 10 years was 38%, 46%, and 59%, respectively. Overall survival for the entire cohort at 2, 4, and 10 years was 84%, 75%, and 50%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Readmissions following initial discharge after diagnosis of aortic syndrome are common and not different across specific disease types. Whereas aorta-related rehospitalizations occur in more than half of patients but tend to be earlier, cardiovascular-related rehospitalizations tend to happen later in about one-third of patients. This may suggest the need for early follow-up focused on aortic complications, whereas later follow-up should address cardiovascular events.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Sex-specific contemporary trends in incidence, prevalence and survival of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: A long-term real-world data analysis

Introduction

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major increasing public health problem worldwide, with clinical and epidemiological differences between men and women. However, contemporary population-level data on incidence and survival are scarce.

Aim

To evaluate sex-specific contemporary trends in the incidence, prevalence, and long-term survival of non-valvular AF in a real-world setting

Methods

AF patients diagnosed between 2007–2015, insured by a large, state-mandated health organization in Israel (Maccabi Healthcare Services) were included. AF was diagnosed based on registered diagnoses. Patients with valvular disease, active malignancy, cardiac surgery ≤ 6 months, or recent pregnancy, were excluded. Annual incidence rate, period prevalence, and 5-year survival for each calendar year during the study period, were calculated.

Results

A total of 15,409 eligible patients (8,288 males, 7,121 females) were identified. Males were more likely to be younger, have higher rates of underlying diseases (ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), but with lower rates of hypertension and chronic kidney diseases as compared to female patients. During the study period, age-adjusted incidence decreased both in men: (-0.020/1,000-person year, p-for trend = 0.033) and, women (-0.025/1,000 person-year p = 0.009). The five-year survival rate was significantly higher among men vs. women (77.1% vs. 71.5%, respectively, p<0.001). Age-adjusted prevalence increased significantly among men (+0.102 per year, p-for trend<0.001) yet decreased among women (-0.082 per year, p-for trend = 0.005). A significant trend toward improved long-term survival was observed in women and not in men.

Conclusions

The current study shows significant sex-related disparities in the incidence, prevalence, and survival of AF patients between 2007–2015; while the adjusted incidence of both has decreased over-time, prevalence and mortality decreased significantly only in women.

Population-Based Assessment of Aortic-Related Outcomes in Aortic Dissection, Intramural Hematoma, and Penetrating Aortic Ulcer

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to analyze aortic-related outcomes after diagnosis of aortic dissection (AD), intramural hematoma (IMH), and penetrating aortic ulcer (PAU) from a population-based approach.

METHODS

Retrospective review of an incident cohort of AD, IMH, and PAU patients in Olmsted County, Minnesota from 1995 to 2015. Primary end point was aortic death. Secondary end points were subsequent aortic events (aortic intervention, new dissection, or rupture not present at presentation) and first-time diagnosis of an aortic aneurysm. Outcomes were compared with randomly selected population referents matched for age and sex in a 3:1 ratio using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for comorbidities.

RESULTS

Among 133 patients (77 AD, 21 IMH, and 35 PAU), 57% were males, and mean age was 71.8 years (standard deviation, 14). Median follow-up was 10 years. Of 73 deaths among AD/IMH/PAU patients, 23 (32%) were aortic-related. Estimated freedom from aortic death was 84%, 80%, and 77% at 5, 10, and 15 years. There were no aortic deaths among population referents (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for aortic death in AD/IMH/PAU, 184.7; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 10.3-3,299.2; P < 0.001). Fifty (38%) AD/IMH/PAU patients had a subsequent aortic event (aortic intervention, new dissection, or rupture), whereas there were 8 (2%) aortic events among population referents (all elective aneurysm repairs; adjusted HR for any aortic event and aortic intervention in AD/IMH/PAU patients, 33.3; 95% CI, 15.3-72.0; P < 0.001 and 31.5; 95% CI, 14.5-68.4; P < 0.001, respectively). After excluding aortic events/interventions ≤14 days of diagnosis, AD/IMH/PAU patients remained at increased risk of any aortic event (adjusted HR, 10.8; 95% CI, 3.9-29.8; P < 0.001) and aortic intervention (adjusted HR, 9.6; 95% CI, 3.4-26.8; P < 0.001). Among those subjects with available follow-up imaging, the risk of first-time diagnosis of aortic aneurysm was significantly increased for AD/IMH/PAU patients when compared with population referents (adjusted HR, 10.9; 95% CI, 5.4-21.7; P < 0.001 and 8.3; 95% CI, 4.1-16.7; P < 0.001 for thoracic and abdominal aneurysms, respectively) and remained increased when excluding aneurysms that formed within 14 days of AD/IMH/PAU (adjusted HR, 6.2; 95% CI, 1.8-21.1; P = 0.004 and 2.8; 95% CI, 1.0-7.6; P = 0.040 for thoracic and abdominal aneurysms, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

AD/IMH/PAU patients have a substantial risk of aortic death, any aortic event, aortic intervention, and first-time diagnosis of aortic aneurysm that persists even when the acute phase (≤14 days after diagnosis) is uncomplicated. Advances in postdiagnosis treatment are necessary to improve the prognosis in these patients.

Mortality in atrial fibrillation. Is it changing?

Patients with atrial fibrillation experience higher mortality rates than those without this condition. Recent studies have explored whether mortality rates in atrial fibrillation patients and the overall impact of atrial fibrillation on mortality has changed. Overall, mortality in atrial fibrillation has decreased over the last few decades, with no strong differences between men and women. These improvements could be caused by advances in preventing thromboembolic complications of atrial fibrillation or better management of comorbidities in these patients. Understanding the mechanisms for these changes and developing novel approaches to improve survival in AF patients are areas deserving of future research.

Association of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery With Subsequent Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack

IMPORTANCE

Outcomes of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) after noncardiac surgery are not well defined.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association of new-onset postoperative AF vs no AF after noncardiac surgery with risk of nonfatal and fatal outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, involving 550 patients who had their first-ever documented AF within 30 days after undergoing a noncardiac surgery (postoperative AF) between 2000 and 2013. Of these patients, 452 were matched 1:1 on age, sex, year of surgery, and type of surgery to patients with noncardiac surgery who were not diagnosed with AF within 30 days following the surgery (no AF). The last date of follow-up was December 31, 2018.

EXPOSURES

Postoperative AF vs no AF after noncardiac surgery.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Secondary outcomes included subsequent documented AF, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality.

RESULTS

The median age of the 452 matched patients was 75 years (IQR, 67-82 years) and 51.8% of patients were men. Patients with postoperative AF had significantly higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores than those in the no AF group (median, 4 [IQR, 2-5] vs 3 [IQR, 2-5]; P < .001). Over a median follow-up of 5.4 years (IQR, 1.4-9.2 years), there were 71 ischemic strokes or TIAs, 266 subsequent documented AF episodes, and 571 deaths, of which 172 were cardiovascular related. Patients with postoperative AF exhibited a statistically significantly higher risk of ischemic stroke or TIA (incidence rate, 18.9 vs 10.0 per 1000 person-years; absolute risk difference [RD] at 5 years, 4.7%; 95% CI, 1.0%-8.4%; HR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.35-5.37) compared with those with no AF. Patients with postoperative AF had statistically significantly higher risks of subsequent documented AF (incidence rate 136.4 vs 21.6 per 1000 person-years; absolute RD at 5 years, 39.3%; 95% CI, 33.6%-45.0%; HR, 7.94; 95% CI, 4.85-12.98), and all-cause death (incidence rate, 133.2 vs 86.8 per 1000 person-years; absolute RD at 5 years, 9.4%; 95% CI, 4.9%-13.7%; HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.32-2.09). No significant difference in the risk of cardiovascular death was observed for patients with and without postoperative AF (incidence rate, 42.5 vs 25.0 per 1000 person-years; absolute RD at 5 years, 6.2%; 95% CI, 2.2%-10.4%; HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.97-2.34).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, new-onset postoperative AF compared with no AF was associated with a significant increased risk of stroke or TIA. However, the implications of these findings for the management of postoperative AF, such as the need for anticoagulation therapy, require investigation in randomized trials.

Outcomes of incident atrial fibrillation in heart failure with preserved or reduced ejection fraction: A community-based study

INTRODUCTION

The best management strategy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with heart failure (HF) and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This cohort study was conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota, with resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Patients with incident AF occurring between 2000 and 2014 with a prior or concurrent HF were included. Patients with LVEF ≥ 50% were designated as HF and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and those with LVEF < 50% were designated as HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Rhythm control in the first year after AF diagnosis was defined as prescriptions for an antiarrhythmic drug, catheter ablation, or maze procedure. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. The secondary endpoints were cardiovascular death, cardiovascular hospitalization, and stroke or transient ischemic attack. Of 859 patients (age, 77.2 ± 12.1 years; 49.2%, female), 447 had HFpEF-AF, and 412 had HFrEF-AF. There was no difference in all-cause mortality (10-year mortality, 83% vs 79%; p = .54) or secondary endpoints between the HFpEF-AF and HFrEF-AF, respectively. Compared with the rate control strategy, rhythm control in HFpEF-AF patients (n = 40, 15.9%) offered no survival benefits (adjusted HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.42-1.16; p = .16), whereas rhythm control in HFrEF-AF patients (n = 52, 22.5%) decrease cardiovascular mortality (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.17-0.86; p = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with HFpEF-AF and HFrEF-AF had similar poor prognoses. Rhythm control strategy was seldom adopted in community care in patients with HF and AF. A rhythm control strategy may provide survival benefit for patients with HFrEF-AF and the benefit of rhythm control in patients with HFpEF-AF warrants further study.

Prevalence and incidence rates of atrial fibrillation in Norway 2004-2014

Objective

To study time trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the entire Norwegian population from 2004 to 2014, by age and sex, and to estimate the prevalence of AF at the end of the study period.

Methods

A national cohort of patients with AF (≥18 years) was identified from inpatient admissions with AF and deaths with AF as underlying cause (1994–2014), and AF outpatient visits (2008–2014) in the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) project. AF admissions or out-of-hospital death from AF, with no AF admission the previous 10 years defined incident AF. Age-standardised incidence rates (IR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated. All AF cases identified through inpatient admissions and outpatient visits and alive as of 31 December 2014 defined AF prevalence.

Results

We identified 175 979 incident AF cases (30% primary diagnosis, 69% secondary diagnosis, 0.6% out-of-hospital deaths). AF IRs (95% confidence intervals) per 100 000 person years were stable from 2004 (433 (426–440)) to 2014 (440 (433–447)). IRs were stable or declining across strata of sex and age with the exception of an average yearly increase of 2.4% in 18–44 year-olds: IRR 1.024 (1.014–1.034). In 2014, the prevalence of AF in the adult population was 3.4%.

Conclusions

We found overall stable IRs of AF for the adult Norwegian population from 2004 to 2014. The prevalence of AF was 3.4% at the end of 2014, which is higher than reported in previous studies. Signs of an increasing incidence of early-onset AF (<45 years) are worrying and need further investigation.

Trends in Atrial Fibrillation Incidence Rates Within an Integrated Health Care Delivery System, 2006 to 2018

IMPORTANCE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, and multiple studies have reported increasing AF incidence rates over time, although the underlying explanations remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate AF incidence rates from 2006 to 2018 in a community-based setting and to investigate possible explanations for increasing AF by evaluating the changing features of incident AF cases and the pool of patients at risk for AF over time.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included 500 684 patients who received primary care and other health care services for more than 2 years through a single integrated health care delivery network in Pennsylvania. Data collection was conducted from January 2003 to December 2018. The base study population had no documentation of AF in the electronic medical record for at least 2 years prior to baseline. Data analysis was conducted from May to December 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident AF cases were identified through diagnostic codes recorded at inpatient or outpatient encounters. Age- and sex-adjusted AF incidence rates were estimated by calendar year from 2006 to 2018 both overall and across subgroups, including according to diagnostic setting (inpatient vs outpatient) and priority (primary vs secondary diagnosis).

RESULTS

Among 514 293 patients meeting criteria for the base study population, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 47 (18) years and 282 103 (54.9%) were women; 13 609 (2.6%) met AF diagnostic criteria on or prior to the baseline date and were excluded. Among 500 684 patients free of AF at baseline, standardized AF incidence rates from 2006 to 2018 increased from 4.74 (95% CI, 4.58-4.90) to 6.82 (95% CI, 6.65-7.00) cases per 1000 person-years, increasing significantly over time (P < .001). Incidence rates increased in all age and sex subgroups, although absolute rate increases were largest among those aged 85 years or older. The fraction of incident AF cases among individuals aged 85 years or older increased from 135 of 1075 (12.6%) in 2006 to 451 of 2427 (18.6%) in 2017. Patients with incident AF were more likely over time to have high body mass index (1351 of 3389 patients [39.9%] in 2006-2008 vs 4504 of 9214 [48.9%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), hypertension (2764 [81.6%] in 2006-2008 vs 7937 [86.1%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), and ischemic stroke (328 [9.7%] in 2006-2008 vs 1455 [15.8%] in 2015-2018; P < .001), but less likely to have coronary artery disease (1533 [45.2%] in 2006-2008 vs 3810 [41.4%] in 2015-2018; P < .001). Among 22 077 new cases of AF, 9146 (41.4%) were diagnosed as inpatients and 5731 (26.0%) as the primary diagnosis. Incidence rates of AF increased significantly in all diagnostic setting and priority pairings (eg, inpatient, primary: rate ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08; P < .001). Among patients at risk for AF, high BMI and hypertension increased over time (BMI: 71 433 of 198 245 [36.0%] in 2007 to 130 218 of 282 270 [46.1%] in 2017; hypertension: 79 977 [40.3%] in 2007 to 134 404 [47.6%] in 2017). Documentation of short-term ECG increased over time (23 297 of 207 349 [11.2%] in 2008 to 45 027 [16.0%] in 2017); however, long-term ECG monitoring showed no change (1871 [0.9%] in 2007 to 4036 [1.4%] in 2017).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this community-based study, AF incidence rates increased significantly during the study period. Concurrent increases were observed in AF risk factors in the at-risk population and short-term ECG use.

Divergent Temporal Trends in Morbidity and Mortality Related to Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation: Age, Sex, Race, and Geographic Differences in the United States, 1991-2015

Background Heart failure ( HF ) and atrial fibrillation ( AF ) are rising in prevalence and pose a substantial public health burden. Methods and Results We evaluated temporal trends specific to age, sex, race, and geographic region in rates of HF - and AF -related morbidity, mortality, and years of potential life lost at age 75 years between 1991 and 2015 in the United States. For trends in hospitalization with a primary diagnosis of HF versus AF , we used data for patients aged ≥30 years from 1993 to 2014 from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. For trends in death due to HF versus AF , we used data from 1991 to 2015 from the National Center for Health Statistics. Over the past 25 years, the age-adjusted rates of hospitalization declined for HF (-1.72% per year) but increased for AF (+1.61% per year). HF mortality rates remained unchanged, whereas those for AF increased (+11.2% per year). Years of potential life lost increased for both HF (+0.4% per year) and AF (+9.8% per year). Trends in HF and AF morbidity rates varied moderately by age group, whereas mortality rates varied by age and race. HF and AF hospitalization and mortality rates rose for individuals aged <50 years. HF hospitalization rates declined in all 4 US census regions, whereas AF rates increased. Conclusions We observed divergent trends of decreasing hospitalization and mortality rates for HF versus increasing rates for AF . Variations in disease burden by race and geography warrant specific targeting of "at risk" groups in selected US regions. Additional studies are warranted to evaluate the rising burden of both conditions in younger adults.

Heart Failure in Atrial Fibrillation - An Update on Clinical and Echocardiographic Implications

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia in adults and has unfavorable consequences such as stroke, heart failure (HF), and death. HF is the most common adverse event following AF and the leading cause of death. Therefore, identifying the association between AF and HF is important to establish risk stratification for HF in AF. Recent studies suggested that left atrial and ventricular fibrosis is an important link between AF and HF, and the prognostic impact may differ with respect to HF subtype, stratified with left ventricular ejection fraction (EF). Mortality risk in patients with concurrent AF and HF with reduced EF (HFrEF) appears slightly higher compared with those with concurrent AF and HF with preserved EF (HFpEF). On the other hand, the prognostic impact of HF in AF is similar between HFrEF and HFpEF. Further, left atrial size, as well as left atrial and left ventricular functional assessment, are reported to be useful for the prediction of HF in AF, incremental to the conventional risk factors. In this review, we focus on the epidemiological, pathophysiological, and prognostic associations between AF and HF, and review the clinical and echocardiographic predictors for HF in AF.

Patterns of oral anticoagulation use with cardioversion in clinical practice

BACKGROUND

Cardioversion is common among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We hypothesised that novel oral anticoagulants (NOAC) used in clinical practice resulted in similar rates of stroke compared with vitamin K antagonists (VKA) for cardioversion.

METHODS

Using the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation II, patients with AF who had a cardioversion, follow-up data and an AF diagnosis within 6 months of enrolment were identified retrospectively. Clinical outcomes were compared for patients receiving a NOAC or VKA for 1 year following cardioversion.

RESULTS

Among 13 004 patients with AF, 2260 (17%) underwent cardioversion. 1613 met the inclusion criteria for this analysis. At the time of cardioversion, 283 (17.5%) were receiving a VKA and 1330 (82.5%) a NOAC. A transoesophageal echocardiogram (TOE) was performed in 403 (25%) cardioversions. The incidence of stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) at 30 days was the same for patients having (3.04 per 100 patient-years) or not having (3.04 per 100 patient-years) a TOE (p=0.99). There were no differences in the incidence of death (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.62 to 2.28, p=0.61), cardiovascular hospitalisation (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.35, p=0.91), stroke/TIA (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.30 to 4.74, p=0.81) or bleeding-related hospitalisation (HR 1.29, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.52, p=0.45) at 1 year for patients treated with either a NOAC or VKA.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardioversion was a low-risk procedure for patients treated with NOAC, and there were statistically similar rates of stroke/TIA 30 days after cardioversion as for patients treated with VKA. There were no statically significant differences in death, stroke/TIA or major bleeding at 1 year among patients treated with NOAC compared with VKA after cardioversion.

Bisphosphonates and atrial fibrillation: revisiting the controversy

Bisphosphonates (BPs) are widely prescribed drugs used to treat osteoporosis, commonly arising in postmenopausal women and in chronic glucocorticoid use. Their mechanism of action is through inhibiting osteoclast-induced bone remodeling, and they also possess calcium sequestering properties. Common side effects involve the gastrointestinal system and rare but serious side effects, including osteonecrosis of the jaw. However, a link between BPs and atrial fibrillation (AF) has been proposed, with early clinical trials, such as the Fracture Intervention Trial and the HORIZON Pivotal Fracture Trial, reporting that BPs are associated with increased risk of AF. Nevertheless, subsequent studies have reported contrasting results, ranging from no effect of BPs to antiarrhythmic effects of BPs. Preclinical and electrophysiological studies on any proarrhythmic effect of BPs are limited in scope and number, but suggest possible mechanisms that include antiangionesis-related myocardial remodeling, calcium handling abnormalities, and inflammatory changes. Contrastingly, some studies indicate that BPs are antiarrhythmic by inhibiting fibrotic myocardial remodeling. In order to continue established clinical prescribing of BPs within absolute margins of safety, it will be necessary to systematically rule in/rule out these mechanisms. Thus, we discuss these studies and examine in detail the potential mechanistic links, with the aim of suggesting further avenues for research.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2020 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports on the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2020 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, metrics to assess and monitor healthy diets, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, a focus on the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors, implementation strategies, and implications of the American Heart Association's 2020 Impact Goals.

RESULTS

Each of the 26 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, healthcare administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Molecular basis of arrhythmic substrate in ageing murine peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ co-activator deficient hearts modelling mitochondrial dysfunction

INTRODUCTION

Ageing and chronic metabolic disorders are associated with mitochondrial dysfunction and cardiac pro-arrhythmic phenotypes which were recently attributed to slowed atrial and ventricular action potential (AP) conduction in peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ co-activator deficient (Pgc-1β-/-) mice.

METHODS

We compared expression levels of voltage-gated Na+ channel (NaV1.5) and gap junction channels, Connexins 40 and 43 (Cx40 and Cx43) in the hearts of young and old, and wild-type (WT) and Pgc-1β-/- mice. This employed Western blotting (WB) for NaV1.5, Cx40 and Cx43 in atrial/ventricular tissue lysates, and immunofluorescence (IF) from Cx43 was explored in tissue sections. Results were analysed using two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) for independent/interacting effects of age and genotype.

RESULTS

In atria, increased age and Pgc-1β-/- genotype each independently decreased both Cx40 and Cx43 expression without interacting effects. In IF experiments, both age and Pgc-1β deletion independently reduced Cx43 expression. In ventricles, age and genotype exerted interacting effects in WB studies of NaV1.5 expression. Young Pgc-1β-/- then showed greater NaV1.5 expression than young WT ventricles. However, neither age nor Pgc-1β deletion affected Cx43 expression, independently or through interacting effects in both WB and IF studies.

CONCLUSION

Similar pro-arrhythmic atrial/ventricular phenotypes arise in aged/Pgc-1β-/- from differing contributions of altered protein expression and functional effects that may arise from multiple acute mechanisms.

Left atrial structure and function and the risk of death or heart failure in atrial fibrillation

AIMS

The present study aimed to assess the association between left atrial (LA) structure and function and the risk for cardiovascular (CV) death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization in a population with atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a prospective echocardiographic substudy of the Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in AF-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48 (ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48) study, 971 patients underwent transthoracic echocardiography. The associations between LA structure (LA volume index [LAVi]) and function (LA emptying fraction [LAEF] and LA expansion index [LAEi]) and risk for the composite endpoint of CV death or HF hospitalization, and its components, were assessed. Over a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 142 patients (14.6%) experienced CV death or HF hospitalization. Higher LAVi and lower LAEF and LAEi were each associated with a higher unadjusted risk for the composite outcome and its components. After adjustment for clinical and echocardiographic confounders, only measures of impaired LA function were predictive of the composite outcome (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 standard deviation [SD] decrease in LAEF: 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.67 [P = 0.005]; HR per 1 SD decrease in LAEi: 1.34; 95% CI 1.06-1.69 [P = 0.012]). These findings were similar regardless of left ventricular ejection fraction, history of HF or whether patients were in AF or sinus rhythm at the time of the echocardiographic examination.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF, LA dysfunction was significantly associated with an increased risk for CV death or HF hospitalization and was more predictive of these outcomes than LA size. These parameters may help to identify AF patients at greatest risk for the development of HF.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00781391.

Epidemiology and long-term prognosis of atrial fibrillation in rural African patients

BACKGROUND

Few studies have addressed the pattern of atrial fibrillation (AF) in rural Africa. The purpose of the study was to assess the epidemiology and long-term prognosis of AF in rural African patients in the Regional Hospital Center (RHC) of Tenkodogo, Burkina Faso.

RESULTS

Overall, 107 of 1805 cardiac cases presented with AF (prevalence of 5.9%). Six patients were excluded. Mean age was 66.56 ± 14.92 years, and 53.47% were female. Hypertension was the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor (59.41%). Congestive heart failure (HF) was reported in 85.15% of the study patients at presentation. Most of the study population presented with severe underlying heart disease (93.1%), and hypertensive heart disease was the most prevalent with 45.54% of the cases. The mean CHA2DS2VASc score in patients with non-valvular heart disease (n = 91) was 3.33 ± 1.25 (extremes 1-6) while the risk of bleeding was low (HAS-BLED score ≤ 1) in 82 patients (81.2%). Oral anticoagulation was prescribed in few cases (5.26%). During a follow-up period of 74.43 ± 23.94 weeks, acute HF and stroke occurred in respectively 43 and 6 patients. Forty-one patients (40.59%) died. The overall survival rate was 69% at 6-month and 59.4% at 1-year follow-up. Patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy were at higher risk of death than other patients (log-rank test = 11.88, p < 0.001) over time.

CONCLUSION

AF is not rare in rural African patients and is associated with an increased long-term risk of HF, stroke, and mortality.

Population-Based Assessment of the Incidence of Aortic Dissection, Intramural Hematoma, and Penetrating Ulcer, and Its Associated Mortality From 1995 to 2015

Background Aortic syndromes (ASs), including aortic dissection, intramural hematoma, and penetrating aortic ulcer, carry significant acute and long-term morbidity and mortality. However, the contemporary incidence and outcomes of AS are unknown. Methods and Results We used the Rochester Epidemiology Project record linkage system to identify all Olmsted County, MN, residents with AS (1995-2015). Diagnostic imaging, medical records, and death certificates were reviewed to confirm the diagnosis and AS subtype. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were estimated using annual county-level census data. Survival for patients with AS was compared with age- and sex-matched controls using Cox regression to adjust for comorbid conditions. We identified 133 patients with AS (77, aortic dissection; 21, intramural hematoma; and 35, penetrating aortic ulcer). Average age was 71.8 years (SD=14.1), and 57% were men. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence was 7.7 per 100 000 person-years, was higher for men than women (10.2 versus 5.7 per 100 000 person-years), and increased with age. Among subtypes, the incidence of aortic dissection was highest (4.4 per 100 000 person-years), whereas the incidence of penetrating aortic ulcer and intramural hematoma was lower (2.1 and 1.2 per 100 000 person-years). Overall, the incidence of AS was stable over time ( P trend=0.33), although the incidence of penetrating aortic ulcer seemed to increase from 0.6 to 2.6 per 100 000 person-years ( P=0.008) with variability over the study interval. Patients with AS had more than twice the mortality rate at 5, 10, and 20 years when compared with population-based controls (5-, 10-, and 20-year mortality 39%, 57%, and 91% versus 18%, 41%, and 66%; overall adjusted mortality hazards ratio=2.1; P<0.001). Survival was lower than expected up to 90 days after AS diagnosis and did not differ significantly by subtype or by 5-year strata of diagnosis. Conclusions Overall, the incidence of aortic dissection and intramural hematoma has remained stable since 1995, despite the decline noted for other cardiovascular disease. AS confers increased early and long-term mortality that has not changed. These data highlight the need to improve long-term care to impact the prognosis of this patient group.

Fall Risk and Outcomes Among Patients Hospitalized With Cardiovascular Disease in the Community

Background As the population with cardiovascular disease ages, geriatric conditions are of increasing relevance. A possible geriatric prognostic indicator may be a fall risk score, which is mandated by The Joint Commission to be measured on all hospitalized patients. The prognostic value of a fall risk score on outcomes after dismissal is not well known. Thus, we aimed to determine whether a fall risk score is associated with death and hospital readmissions in patients with a recent incident cardiovascular disease event. Methods and Results In this retrospective cohort study, Olmsted County, MN patients with incident heart failure, myocardial infarction, or atrial fibrillation between August 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011, who were hospitalized within 180 days after the event were studied. Fall risk was measured by the Hendrich II fall risk model. Patients were followed for death or readmission within 30 days or 1 year. Among 2456 hospitalized patients with recent incident cardiovascular disease (549 heart failure, 784 myocardial infarction, 1123 atrial fibrillation; mean [SD] age, 71 [15] years; 55% men), the fall risk score was high in 22% of patients and moderate in 38%. The risk of death was increased if the fall risk score was increased, independent of age and comorbidities (moderate hazard ratio, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.09-2.08; high hazard ratio, 3.49; 95% CI, 2.52-4.85). Similarly, the risk of 30-day readmissions was substantially increased with a greater fall risk score (moderate hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03-1.62; high hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.23-2.15). Results were similar for readmissions within 1 year. Conclusions More than half of hospitalized patients with recent incident cardiovascular disease have an elevated fall risk score, which is associated with an increased risk in readmissions and death. These results delineate an approach for risk stratification and management that may prevent readmissions and improve survival.

Atrial fibrillation is not an independent predictor of outcome in patients with aortic stenosis

OBJECTIVES

To examine the prognostic significance of atrial fibrillation (AF) versus sinus rhythm (SR) on the management and outcomes of patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS).

METHODS

1847 consecutive patients with severe AS (aortic valve area ≤1.0 cm² and aortic valve systolic mean Doppler gradient ≥40 mm Hg or peak velocity ≥4 m/s) and left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50% were identified. The independent association of AF and all-cause mortality was assessed.

RESULTS

Age was 76±11 years and 46% were female; 293 (16%) patients had AF and 1554 (84%) had SR. In AF, 72% were symptomatic versus 71% in SR. Survival rate at 5 years for AF (41%) was lower than SR (65%) (age- and sex-adjusted HR=1.66 (1.40-1.98), p<0.0001). In multivariable analysis, factors associated with mortality included age (HR per 10 years=1.55 (1.42-1.69), p<0.0001), dyspnoea (HR=1.58 (1.33-1.87), p<0.0001), ≥ moderate mitral regurgitation (HR=1.63 (1.22-2.18), p=0.001), right ventricular systolic dysfunction (HR=1.88 (1.52-2.33), p<0.0001), left atrial volume index (HR per 10 mL/m²=1.13 (1.07-1.19), p<0.0001) and aortic valve replacement (AVR) (HR=0.44 (0.38-0.52), p<0.0001). AF was not a predictor of mortality independent of variables strongly correlated HR=1.02 (0.84-1.25), p=0.81). The 1-year probability of AVR following diagnosis of severe AS was lower in AF (49.8%) than SR (62.5%) (HR=0.73 (0.62-0.86), p<0.001); among patients with AF not referred for AVR, symptoms were frequently attributed to AF instead of AS.

CONCLUSION

AF was associated with poor prognosis in patients with severe AS, but apparent differences in outcomes compared with SR were explained by factors other than AF including concomitant cardiac abnormalities and deferral of AVR due to attribution of cardiac symptoms to AF.