Validity of a continuous metabolic risk score as an index for modeling metabolic syndrome in adolescents

Metabolic complications of obesity in children and adolescents

The global prevalence of childhood and adolescent obesity, exacerbated by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, affects school-aged children and preschoolers. Early-onset obesity, which carries a high risk of metabolic complications, may contribute to a lower age at the onset of cardiovascular disease. As metabolic diseases such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease observed in adulthood are increasingly recognized in the pediatric population, there is an emphasis on moving disease susceptibility assessments from adulthood to childhood to enable early detection. However, consensus is lacking regarding the definition of metabolic diseases in children. In response, various indicators such as the pediatric simple metabolic syndrome score, continuous metabolic syndrome score, single-point insulin sensitivity estimator, and fatty liver index have been proposed in several studies. These indicators may aid the early detection of metabolic complications associated with pediatric obesity, although further validation studies are needed. Obesity assessments are shifting in perspective from visual obesity to metabolic health and body composition considerations to fill the gap in health impact assessments. Sarcopenic obesity, defined as the muscle- to-fat ratio, has been proposed in pediatric populations and is associated with metabolic health in children and adolescents. The National Health Screening Program for Children in Korea has expanded but still faces limitations in laboratory testing. These tests facilitate timely intervention by identifying groups at a high risk of metabolic complications. Early detection and intervention through comprehensive health screening are critical for mitigating long-term complications of childhood obesity.

Robust metabolic syndrome risk score based on triangular areal similarity

One of the limitations of currently-used metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk calculations is that they often depend on sample characteristics. To address this, we introduced a novel sample-independent risk quantification method called 'triangular areal similarity' (TAS) that employs three-axis radar charts constructed from five MetS factors in order to assess the similarity between standard diagnostic thresholds and individual patient measurements. The method was evaluated using large datasets of Korean (n = 72,332) and American (n = 11,286) demographics further segmented by sex, age, and race. The risk score exhibited a strong positive correlation with the number of abnormal factors and was closely aligned with the current diagnostic paradigm. The proposed score demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy and robustness, surpassing previously reported risk scores. This method demonstrated superior performance and stability when tested on cross-national datasets. This novel sample-independent approach has the potential to enhance the precision of MetS risk prediction.

Clustering of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Mexican Pre-Adolescents

OBJECTIVE

To examine clustering of cardiometabolic markers in Mexican children at age 11 years and compare a metabolic syndrome (MetS) score to an exploratory cardiometabolic health (CMH) score.

METHODS

We used data from children enrolled in the POSGRAD birth cohort with cardiometabolic data available (n = 413). We used principal component analysis (PCA) to derive a Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) score and an exploratory cardiometabolic health (CMH) score, which additionally included adipokines, lipids, inflammatory markers, and adiposity. We assessed reliability of individual cardiometabolic risk as defined by MetS and CMH by calculating % agreement and Cohen's kappa statistic.

RESULTS

At least one cardiometabolic risk factor was present in 42% of study participants; the most common risk factors were low High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (31.9%) and elevated triglycerides (18.2%). Measures of adiposity and lipids explained the most variation in cardiometabolic measures for both MetS and CMH scores. Two-thirds of individuals were categorized in the same risk category by both MetS and CMH scores (κ = 0.42).

CONCLUSIONS

MetS and CMH scores capture a similar amount of variation. Additional follow-up studies comparing predictive abilities of MetS and CMH scores may enable improved identification of children at risk for cardiometabolic disease.

The association between urinary cotinine level and metabolic syndrome profiles among adolescents: findings from the Ewha Birth and growth study

BACKGROUND

Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among adolescents who are still developing can negatively affect their physical and psychological health, including metabolic syndrome (MetS), which is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, the relationship between exposure to SHS and MetS in adolescence has not been evaluated.

METHODS

A total of 240 subjects aged 13-15 years who were followed up in the Ewha Birth and Growth Study were included in this study. Using the urinary cotinine level, the participants' exposure to SHS was divided into tertiles, and the continuous MetS score (cMetS) and its components were compared among the three groups using a generalized linear model and trend analysis. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed. We adjusted for several confounding variables including sex, father's education level, father's current alcohol consumption status, moderate physical activity, and overweight status.

RESULTS

The association between cMetS and the urinary cotinine level was not significant. However, the higher the urinary cotinine level, the lower the high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level. In particular, the significance of the HDL-C level was maintained after adjusting for covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports an association between SHS exposure and the components of MetS in adolescents aged 13-15 years, and it suggests the need to address SHS exposure in adolescents to reduce the cardiovascular risk in later life.

cMetS Based on Z-Scores as an Accurate and Efficient Scoring System to Determine Metabolic Syndrome in Spanish Adolescents

The definition of metabolic syndrome (MetS) based on dichotomous cut-off points is efficient in the adult population. However, to date, there is no international consensus on how to define MetS in the pediatric population. For that reason, a continuous MetS score (cMetS) has been proposed for the pediatric population. However, despite multiple attempts, cMetS has not been fully validated as there is no agreement about the most accurate score to calculate it. The purpose of the present study was to compare the validity of different scores (three siMS scores, z-score, principal components analysis (PCA), the sum of PCA, and confirmatory factor analysis) to calculate cMetS and determine MetS in Spanish adolescents. There were 981 subjects, ranging 11-16 years old, recruited for this cross-sectional study. Seven different approaches to pediatric cMetS scores were calculated. All cMetS scores calculated strongly correlated with each other, especially siMS scores. The area under the curve obtained from receiving operating characteristic curves was particularly elevated for z-scores 0.81 (95% CI: 0.784-0.838), showing a specificity of 64.4%. Our study shows that cMetS based on z-scores is accurate and efficient to be used for research instead of the dichotomized definition of MetS in adolescents; and cMetS based on siMS scores is useful for clinical practice.

Development and Validation of a Simple Risk Model for Predicting Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) in Midlife: A Cohort Study

Purpose

To develop and validate a simple risk model for predicting metabolic syndrome in midlife using a prospective cohort data.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Participants

A total of 7626 members of the 1958 British birth cohort (individuals born in the first week of March 1958) participated in the biomedical survey at age 45 and have completed information on metabolic syndrome.

Methods

Variables utilised were obtained prospectively at birth, 7, 16, 23 and 45 years. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop a total of ten (10) MetS risk prediction models taking the life course approach. Measures of discrimination and calibration were used to evaluate the performance of the models. A pragmatic criteria developed was used to select one model with the most potential to be useful. The internal validity (overfitting) of the selected model was assessed using bootstrap technique of Stata.

Main Outcome Measure

Metabolic syndrome was defined based on the NCEP-ATP III clinical criteria.

Results

There is high prevalence of MetS among the cohort members (19.6%), with males having higher risk as compared to females (22.8% vs 16.4%, P < 0.001). Individuals with MetS are more likely to have higher levels of HbA1c and low HDL-cholesterol. Similarly, regarding the individual components of MetS, male cohort members are more likely to have higher levels of glycaemia (HbA1c), BP and serum triglycerides. In contrast, female cohort members have lower levels of HDL-cholesterol and higher levels of waist circumference. Furthermore, a total of ten (10) MetS risk prediction models were developed taking the life course approach. Of these, one model with the most potential to be applied in practical setting was selected. The model has good accuracy (AUROC 0.91 (0.90, 0.92)), is well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6.47 (0.595)) and has good internal validity.

Conclusion

Early life factors could be included in a risk model to predict MetS in midlife. The developed model has been shown to be accurate and has good internal validity. Therefore, interventions targeting socioeconomic inequality could help in the wider prevention of MetS. However, the validity of the developed model needs to be further established in an external population.

Clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors and the continuous cardiometabolic risk score in children from Southern Brazil: a cross-sectional study

Purpose

The present study aimed to verify the clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its relationship with the continuous cardiometabolic risk score (cMetS).

Methods

Cross-sectional study with 631 children aged 6 to 9 years. Cardiorespiratory fitness, glucose, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, triglycerides, and waist circumference were assessed. The number of children in whom the risk factors were not independently distributed was analyzed. Z-scores were computed for each risk factor to calculate the cMetS.

Results

There was a high proportion of children with clustering of risk factors for CVD. The clustering of risk factors was apparent in 11.3% of the children for four or more risk factors, and 21.9% had three or more risk factors. The cMetS showed a linear relationship with the increase in the number of risk factors. A cMetS value higher than 0.91 indicated clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors amongst children.

Conclusion

The use of clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors identified a high proportion of children with the presence of relevant cardiometabolic alterations. A cMetS value higher than 0.91 (relative to an international standard) indicated higher clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors amongst children.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-021-00845-9.

Trajectory patterns for continuous metabolic syndrome score in childhood and the cardiovascular risk in adolescence

We explored the association between the trajectory of the continuous metabolic syndrome score (cMetS) in childhood with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), which are known to increase cardiovascular disease risk in adolescence. The trajectory of cMetS in childhood (from 3 to 12 years of age) was identified in 833 children who participated in the Ewha Birth and Growth Study. The associations between cMetS and hs-CRP and CIMT were analyzed in 204 out of 833 children who participated in the follow-up at 13-15 years of age and measured hs-CRP and CIMT. Among the 833 children, three groups were classified: cMetS maintained at a low level (n = 198, 23.77%), middle level (n = 530, 63.63%), and at high levels (n = 105, 12.61%). The group with a stable-high cMetS trajectory showed significantly higher hs-CRP levels, and the statistical significance was maintained after adjusting for covariates. This study found that a consistently high cMetS in childhood was significantly associated with higher hs-CRP levels in adolescents, suggesting that it is necessary to intervene in metabolic risk factors early in life to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease later in life.

Circulating extracellular DNA is in association with continuous metabolic syndrome score in healthy adolescents

Obesity is associated with chronic low-grade inflammation that eventually leads to metabolic complications. Extracellular DNA (ecDNA) is a damage-associated molecular pattern. Extracellular mitochondrial DNA can activate innate immunity. We hypothesized that ecDNA, especially of mitochondrial origin, could be associated with components of the metabolic syndrome in young healthy probands. In a cross-sectional study, healthy adolescents (n = 1,249) provided blood samples. Anthropometric data, blood pressure, and blood counts were assessed. In addition, biochemical analysis of sera or plasma was conducted, including the quantification of advanced oxidation protein products (AOPPs) as a marker of oxidative stress induced by neutrophil or monocyte activation. Plasma ecDNA was isolated and measured by fluorometry. Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA were quantified by real-time PCR. Males had higher total plasma ecDNA [15 (11-21) vs. 11 (8-17) ng/mL; median (interquartile range)], nuclear [1,760 (956-3,273) vs. 1,153 (600-2,292) genome equivalents (GE)/mL], and mitochondrial [37,181 (14,836-90,896) vs. 30,089 (12,587-72,286) GE/mL] DNA. ecDNA correlated positively with the continuous metabolic syndrome score (r = 0.158 for males and r = 0.134 for females). Stronger correlations were found between ecDNA of mitochondrial origin and AOPP (r = 0.202 and 0.186 for males and females, respectively). Multivariate regression analysis revealed associations of nuclear DNA with leukocyte and erythrocyte counts. The results of this study of healthy adolescents show that circulating ecDNA is associated with the risk of metabolic syndrome, not with obesity per se. The association between mitochondrial ecDNA and AOPP requires further attention as it supports a potential role of mitochondria-induced sterile inflammation in the pathogenesis of the metabolic syndrome.

Validity of continuous metabolic syndrome score for predicting metabolic syndrome; a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Nowadays, use of continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) score has been suggested to improve recognition of metabolic syndrome (MetS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity of cMetS scores for predicting MetS.

METHODS

We searched the electronic databases included MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus from 1 January 1980 to 30 September 2020. Observational studies on participants with different cMetS scores were included in this meta-analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR) and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) with 95% CI were calculated.

RESULTS

Ten studies involving a total of 25,073 participants were included. All studies had cross-sectional design. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of cMetS scores for predicting MetS were 0.90 (95% CI: 0.83 to 0.95) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83 to 0.89), respectively. Moreover, cMetS scores had the pooled LR+ of 6.5 (95% CI: 5.0 to 8.6), and a pooled (LR-) of 0.11 (95% CI: 0.063 to 0.21). The pooled DOR of cMetS scores to predict MetS were 57 (95% CI: 26 to 127).

CONCLUSIONS

The high sensitivity and specificity of cMetS scores indicates that it has a high accuracy to predict the risk of MetS. Furthermore, the cMetS scores has a good ability to rule out healthy people.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study was registered as PROSPERO CRD42020157273.

How do associations between sleep duration and metabolic health differ with age in the UK general population?

BACKGROUND

Despite a growing body of evidence suggesting that short sleep duration may be linked to adverse metabolic outcomes, how these associations differ between age groups remains unclear. We use eight years of data from the UK National Diet and Nutritional Survey (NDNS) (2008-2016) to analyse cross-sectional relationships between sleep duration and metabolic risk in participants aged 11-70 years.

METHODS

Participants (n = 2008) who provided both metabolic risk and sleep duration data were included. Self-reported sleep duration was standardised by age, to account for differences in age-related sleep requirements. A standardised metabolic risk score was constructed, comprising: waist circumference, blood pressure, serum triglycerides, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose. Regression models were constructed across four age groups from adolescents to older adults.

RESULTS

Overall, decreased sleep duration (hrs) was associated with an increased metabolic risk (standard deviations) with significant quadratic (B:0.028 [95%CI: 0.007, 0.050]) and linear (B:-0.061 [95%CI: -0.111, -0.011]) sleep duration coefficients. When separated by age group, stronger associations were seen among mid-aged adults (36-50y) (quadratic coefficient: 0.038 [95%CI: 0.002, 0.074]) compared to other age groups (e.g. adolescents (11-18y), quadratic coefficient: -0.009 [95%CI: -0.042, 0.025]). An increased difference between weekend and weekday sleep was only associated with increased metabolic risk in adults aged 51-70 years (B:0.18 [95%CI: 0.005, 0.348]).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that sleep duration is linked to adverse metabolic risk and suggest heterogeneity between age groups. Longitudinal studies with larger sample sizes are required to explore long-term effects of abnormal sleep and potential remedial benefits.

Validity of the pediatric simple metabolic syndrome score

AIMS

To compare the validity of the conventional continuous metabolic syndrome score (ccMS) and pediatric simple metabolic syndrome score (PsiMS) for the prediction of MS in Korean adolescents.

METHODS

A total of 2983 adolescents aged 10-18 years who participated in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013-2017) were enrolled. The ccMS was calculated by aggregating the sex and age-specific z-scores of body mass index, systolic blood pressure (SBP), glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides. The PsiMS was calculated using the following formula: 〔2x(waist/height (cm)〕+〔glucose (mg/dL)/100〕+〔triglycerides (mg/dL)/150〕+〔SBP (mmHg)/130〕-〔HDL-C (mg/dL)/40〕.

RESULTS

Mean PsiMS was significantly higher in subjects with MS compared with those without MS (3.24 vs. 1.93 in boys, 3.11 vs. 1.80 in girls; P < 0.001). Both ccMS and PsiMS were significantly higher in subjects with more MS components compared to adolescents with fewer components (P-for-trend<0.001). Among the adolescents without MS but in the PsiMS quintile 5, 33.5% presented two or more MS components. The receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated an equally good performance of ccMS (AUC = 0.975) and PsiMS (AUC = 0.958) for identifying adolescent MS risk. PsiMS showed a good stratification of MS risk in the generalized linear model.

CONCLUSION

PsiMS is an accurate and efficient scoring system to assess and monitor the risk of adolescent MS in the research and clinical practice.

Estimation of the proportion of metabolic syndrome-free subjects on high cardiometabolic risk using two continuous cardiometabolic risk scores: a cross-sectional study in 16- to 20-year-old individuals

In contrast to the dichotomous classification of metabolic syndrome, continuous metabolic syndrome scores enable to assess cardiometabolic burden in metabolic syndrome-free individuals. Using receiver operating characteristics analysis, discrimination power of continuous metabolic syndrome score calculated from population-based Z-scores or individual measures corrected to the accepted international standards for presence/absence of metabolic syndrome was assessed. Calculated cutoff values were used to estimate the proportions of metabolic syndrome-free subjects presenting high cardiometabolic risk. Clinical data were collected from 2331 (52% females) 16- to 20-year-old subjects. Receiver operating characteristics analyses showed an acceptable performance of both scores to classify metabolic syndrome presence: area under the curve (97-98%), sensitivity (95-100%), and specificity (86-96%). Compared with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, proportions of metabolic syndrome-free subjects on high cardiometabolic risk, e.g., presenting continuous scores ≥ cutoff points, were about 3-fold higher in males, and 4-fold higher in females. Both scores correlated significantly with markers of cardiometabolic risk.Conclusion: Continuous cardiometabolic syndrome scores are practical tools to evaluate cardiometabolic risk in subjects not presenting metabolic syndrome. Accuracy, simplicity, and ability to classify metabolic syndrome-free subjects on high cardiometabolic risk make continuous metabolic syndrome score derived from international standards convenient for use in research and clinical practice. What is Known: • Dichotomous classification of metabolic syndrome is simple but not suitable for assessment of cardiometabolic burden in metabolic syndrome-free subjects. This prompted implementation of continuous scores, which are generally sample-specific. Score based on internationally accepted standards allows for comparison between populations and studies. • The performance of different continuous metabolic syndrome scores to assess the prevalence of metabolic syndrome-free subjects presenting high cardiometabolic burden has not been compared yet. What is New: • We compared the discrimination power of sample-specific Z-score-derived continuous metabolic syndrome score and that calculated based on internationally accepted standards for presence or absence of metabolic syndrome in young subjects. • The prevalence of metabolic syndrome-free subjects presenting high cardiometabolic risk was estimated using the cutoff points of continuous metabolic syndrome scores derived from the analyses of receiver operating characteristic curves.

Adiposity Criteria in Assessing Increased Cardiometabolic Risk in Prepubertal Children

Objective: Adiposity induces the clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors, and pediatric adiposity is a better indicator for adulthood cardiometabolic diseases than pediatric metabolic syndrome. However, the observed prevalence of pediatric adiposity depends on the methods and cut-points used. Therefore, we aimed to define diagnostic criteria for adiposity which enable more valid identification of prepubertal children at increased cardiometabolic risk. Methods: The participants were 470 prepubertal children (249 boys) aged 6-8 years. The measures of adiposity included body mass index-standard deviation score (BMI-SDS), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and body fat percentage (BF%) assessed by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Criteria for adiposity were determined by increased cardiometabolic risk. Cardiometabolic risk factors which correlated with BF% assessed by DXA in the upper but not lower half of BF% (serum insulin and plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, gamma-glutamyl transferase, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and uric acid) were included in the cardiometabolic risk score (CMS). We computed receiver operating characteristics curves for the measures of adiposity using the ≥90th percentile of CMS as a measure of increased cardiometabolic risk, and local regression curves were graphed to demonstrate the associations of the measures of adiposity with CMS. Results: In girls, WHtR of 0.445 (area under curve 0.778, its 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.91, sensitivity and specificity 0.73) and BF% of 19.5% assessed by BIA (0.801, 0.70-0.90, 0.73) were the best overall criteria for increased cardiometabolic risk. In boys, BMI-SDS of 0.48 (0.833, 0.75-0.92, 0.76) was the best overall criterion for increased cardiometabolic risk. While local regression curves in girls showed that WHtR of 0.445 corresponds well to a point where CMS began to increase, in boys local regression curves suggest that CMS began to increase even at a lower level of BMI-SDS than 0.48. Moreover, the diagnostic ability of the measures of adiposity to exclude increased cardiometabolic risk was poorer than the ability to detect it. Conclusions: In general, the measures of adiposity have sufficient diagnostic accuracy to be utilized as the screening tool for increased cardiometabolic risk. The observed cut-points for adiposity were lower than the traditional cut-points for adiposity.

Comparing the validity of continuous metabolic syndrome risk scores for predicting pediatric metabolic syndrome: the CASPIAN-V study

Background The aim of this study was to compare the validity of various approaches to pediatric continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) scores including siMS scores (2 waist/height + fasting blood glucose [FBG]/5.6 + triglycerides [TG]/1.7 + systolic blood pressure [BP]/130 + high-density lipoprotein [HDL]/1.02), Z-scores, principal component analysis (PCA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) for predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS). Methods This nationwide cross-sectional study was conducted on 4200 Iranian children and adolescents aged 7-18 years. The cMetS was computed using data on HDL, cholesterol, TGs, FBG, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and waist circumference (WC). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to compare the performances of different cMetS scores. Results Data of 3843 participants (52.4% boys) were available for the current study. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) age was 12.6 (3) and 12.3 (3.1) years for boys and girls, respectively. The differences in AUC values of cMetS scores were significant based on the Delong method. The AUCs (95% confidence interval [CI]) were for Z-scores, 0.94 (0.93, 0.95); first PCA, 0.91 (0.89, 0.93); sum PCA, 0.90 (0.88, 0.92), CFA, 0.79 (0.76, 0.3) and also for siMS scores 1 to 3 as 0.93 (0.91, 0.94), 0.92 (0.90, 0.93), and 0.91 (0.90, 0.93), respectively. Conclusions The results of our study indicated that the validity of all approaches for cMetS scores for predicting MetS was high. Given that the siMS scores are simple and practical, it might be used in clinical and research practice.

Cutoff points for continuous metabolic risk score in adolescents from southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE

There is no consensus on the best diagnostic criteria for metabolic syndrome (MetS) in the child and adolescent population. Thus, the present study aimed to establish cutoff points for a continuous metabolic risk score (cMetS) in adolescents from southern Brazil.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study conducted between 2014 and 2015. The sample consisted of 1739 schoolchildren (985 girls), aged 10-17 years. cMetS was calculated by sum of the Z-score of the following parameters: waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and cardiorespiratory fitness. Three diagnostic criteria of MetS were used to create cut points for cMetS.

RESULTS

The best cutoff point for cMetS was set at 3.40 for boys (sensitivity: 100.0%, specificity: 92.9%, AUC: 0.978) and 3.61 for girls (sensitivity: 100, 0%, specificity: 93.1%, AUC: 0.991). For these cutoff points, metabolic risk was found in 8.9% of adolescents (9.4% for boys and 8.5% for girls). A linear relationship was found between the mean values of cMetS and the number of components of MetS (mean cMetS -1.09 for no component present and 6.66 for 3 or more components).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of cMetS is valid for adolescents and can detect a greater proportion of students with metabolic risk, compared to the current criteria for diagnosis of MetS.

Relation of Exercise Heart Rate Recovery to Predict Cardiometabolic Syndrome in Men

We examined the hypothesis that delayed heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise testing, an estimate of decreased autonomic function, predicts the risk of cardiometabolic syndrome (MetS) and is associated with continuous MetS risk scores in healthy men. Participants were 2,740 men who underwent general health examinations and had no evidence of MetS, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and hypertension at baseline. Baseline HRR was calculated as the difference between peak heart rate attained during exercise testing and the heart rate at 1 (HRR 1) and 2 minutes (HRR 2) after test termination. Incident MetS was defined as participants having ≥3 MetS components, and continuous MetS risk score was computed as the sum of z-score of 5 risk factors at follow-up. The incidence of MetS was 61/1,000 person-years during an average follow-up of 5 years. The relative risks and 95% confidence interval (CI) of incident MetS in the lowest quartiles of HRR 1 and HRR 2 versus the highest quartile were 1.24 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.51) and 2.02 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.60), respectively, after adjusting for potential confounders, including peak oxygen uptake and resting heart rate. HRR 1 (ß = -0.052, p = 0.005) and HRR 2 (ß = -0.058, p = 0.009) were independently associated with clustered MetS risk scores after adjusting for covariates. In conclusion, the independent association between delayed HRR after exercise testing and incident MetS and continuous MetS risk scores suggests that decreased autonomic function may be considered as a parameter to predict the future likelihood of MetS.

Comparison of definitions for the metabolic syndrome in adolescents. The HELENA study

Various definitions are used to define metabolic syndrome in adolescents. This study aimed to compare, in terms of prevalence and differences, five frequently used definitions for this population: International Diabetes Federation, National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP) modified by Cook, pediatric American Heart Association (AHA), World Health Organization, and Jolliffe and Janssen. A sample of 1004 adolescents (12.5-17.0 years) from the Healthy Lifestyle in Europe by Nutrition in Adolescence (HELENA) study was considered. The components of the definitions (waist circumference/BMI, plasma lipids, glycemia, and blood pressure) were applied, and definitions were compared by using crosstabs, sensitivity, specificity, and kappa coefficient. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome varied from 1.6 to 3.8% depending on the used definitions. Crosstabs comparing the definitions showed the fewest cases being misclassified (having metabolic syndrome or not) between NCEP-ATP and AHA. Analyses for kappa coefficient, sensitivity, and specificity confirmed this finding.

CONCLUSION

The different definitions do not classify the same adolescents as having MS and prevalence varied between diagnostic methods. The modified NCEP-ATP and the AHA definitions were most analogous in defining subjects as having metabolic syndrome or not. What is known? • Metabolic syndrome is not only a problem of adulthood but is already present in children and adolescents. • Several diagnostic methods are used to define metabolic syndrome in adolescents. What is new? • Comparing the most frequently used definitions of metabolic syndrome in adolescents showed that they do not indicate the same adolescents as having metabolic syndrome. • The modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III and the pediatric American Heart Association definitions were most analogous in defining subjects as having metabolic syndrome or not.

An update on the assessment and management of metabolic syndrome, a growing medical emergency in paediatric populations

In the last decades the increasing rate of obesity in children and adolescents worldwide has led to the onset in paediatric age of metabolic syndrome, a disease commonly associated to adulthood. Central obesity, dyslipidaemia, hyperglycaemia, and hypertension are typical features of metabolic syndrome that seem to hesitate often in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, and many other clinical conditions. Thus preventing and curing metabolic syndrome in paediatric patients is becoming an urgent need for public health. While diagnostic criteria and therapy of metabolic syndrome in adults are very well defined, there is no consensus on the definition of metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents as well as on healing approaches. The aim of this review is to describe the recent advances on the pathogenesis and clinical outcomes of paediatric metabolic syndrome. We then detail the therapeutic strategies (i.e. dietary regimens, physical exercise, nutraceuticals, and medications) employed to manage the disease. Finally, we analyse the safety profile of the drugs used in children and adolescents by performing a retrospective review of paediatric adverse reactions reported in the FDA's Adverse Event Reporting System database.

Validity of a continuous metabolic syndrome score as an index for modeling metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents: the CASPIAN-V study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of the present study was to assess the validity of continuous metabolic syndrome score (cMetS) for predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to determine the cutoff values in a representative sample of Iranian children and adolescents.

METHODS

This national study was conducted among 3843 students, aged 7-18 years country during the fifth survey of a national school-based surveillance program. The cMetS was computed by standardizing the residuals of waist circumference, mean arterial blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose by regressing them according to age and sex and aggregating them. The optimal cut-off points of cMetS for predicting MetS were determined by the receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in different gender and age categories.

RESULTS

Totally, 3843 students (52.3% boys) with average age of 12.45 years were assessed. The mean of cMetS increased according to elevating the number of MetS components. The overall cMetS cut-off point was 1.76 (sensitivity 93% and specificity 82%) in total pediatrics. The area under the ROC curve was 94%. The values for boys and girls were 1.79 and 2.72, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

cMetS performed highly accurate in predicting pediatrics with MetS in all gender and age groups and it appears to be a valid index in children and adolescents.

Clinical utility of metabolic syndrome severity scores: considerations for practitioners

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is marked by abnormalities in central obesity, high blood pressure, high triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high fasting glucose and appears to be produced by underlying processes of inflammation, oxidative stress, and adipocyte dysfunction. MetS has traditionally been classified based on dichotomous criteria that deny that MetS-related risk likely exists as a spectrum. Continuous MetS scores provide a way to track MetS-related risk over time. We generated MetS severity scores that are sex- and race/ethnicity-specific, acknowledging that the way MetS is manifested may be different by sex and racial/ethnic subgroup. These scores are correlated with long-term risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Clinical use of scores like these provide a potential opportunity to identify patients at highest risk, motivate patients toward lifestyle change, and follow treatment progress over time.

Clinical significance of GCF sIL-6R and calprotectin to evaluate the periodontal inflammation

Background

Periodontitis is an inflammatory disease. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the soluble form of interleukin-6 receptor (sIL-6R) and calprotectin concentrations in gingival crevicular fluid are useful biomarkers in the evaluation of periodontitis.

Methods

First, a cross-sectional study was performed. A total of 34 periodontitis patients were enrolled and the gingival crevicular fluid samples were collected from the healthy and inflamed sites of periodontal pockets in each patient. The relationship between periodontal condition and gingival crevicular fluid sIL-6R and calprotectin concentrations was analysed statistically. The cut-off values of gingival crevicular fluid sIL-6R and calprotectin concentrations for the evaluation of periodontitis were determined using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Next, by using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, it was examined whether calprotectin induces sIL-6R production in THP-1 macrophages.

Results

Both gingival crevicular fluid sIL-6R and calprotectin concentrations were significantly higher in the inflamed sites than in the healthy sites ( P < 0.0001). The cut-off values of gingival crevicular fluid sIL-6R and calprotectin concentrations for the evaluation of periodontal inflammation were as follows: sIL-6R: 43.5 pg/site; calprotectin: 134.3 ng/site. In the in vitro study, calprotectin significantly induced sIL-6R production in THP-1 macrophages ( P < 0.01).

Conclusions

Both gingival crevicular fluid sIL-6R and calprotectin concentrations are significant biomarkers in the evaluation of periodontal inflammation.

Metabolic syndrome severity score: range and associations with cardiovascular risk factors

INTRODUCTION

Metabolic Syndrome Severity Score (MSSS) is a new clinical prediction rule (CPR) for diagnostic and therapeutic decisions and employs available components (sex, age, race, systolic blood pressure, waistline circumference, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides and fasting blood glucose). The aim of our work was to perform cross-sectional pilot trial on middle-aged healthy volunteers and patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) for studying feasibility and implementation of MSSS and its associations with cardiovascular risk factors.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We approached 64 eligible participants from Bulgaria. The MSSS values, together with demographic, anthropometric, medical history, laboratory findings, CVD risk factors, QRISK2 score for 10-year cardiovascular risk and predicted heart age, were analysed. Descriptive statistics with tests for comparison (e.g., t-test, χ2) between groups as well as ANOVA and logistic regression were applied.

RESULTS

We analysed data from 56 participants (aged 50.11 ±3.43 years). The MSSS was higher in MetS patients (including 6 T2DM patients) than in controls (n = 29; 51.8%) presented as percentiles (69.97% and 34.41%, respectively) and z-scores (0.60 and -0.45, respectively) (p < 0.05). The logistic regression model of MSSS indicated a positive association with MetS/T2DM cases (correctness > 85%, p < 0.01). For further validation purposes, positive correlations of MSSS with CVD risk factor as diastolic blood pressure (Rho = 0.399; p < 0.003) and QRISK2 score (Rho = 0.524; p < 0.001) or predicted heart age (Rho = 0.368; p < 0.007) were also found.

CONCLUSIONS

The pilot study of MSSS in Bulgaria indicated feasibility and consistency of its implementation among patients with metabolic syndrome and/or T2DM and healthy volunteers.

Evaluating health risk using a continuous metabolic syndrome score in obese children

BACKGROUND

The metabolic syndrome (MS) in pediatrics is controversial. Rather than a dichotomous scale, a continuous metabolic syndrome score (cMets) has been proposed to evaluate MS. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of a cMets score among an ethnically diverse cohort of children with acanthosis nigricans (AN).

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was used to extract clinical and laboratory information on a cohort of obese children. Criteria for MS components and the cMets score were established using published guidelines. Multiple linear regression evaluated the effect of AN status on MS and cMets. Fisher's exact test compared the race differential on the presence or absence of MS component disorders.

RESULTS

MS diagnosis was non-significant when considering AN status (p=0.554) and ethnicity (p=0.431). Evaluation of the frequency of component disorders, revealed that Caucasians had significantly higher levels of abnormal triglycerides (TG) (35.1 vs. 10.3%; p<0.001), whereas African Americans had significantly higher homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) scores (51.3% vs. 22.3%; p<0.001). cMets was sensitive to identifying metabolic risk among Caucasians with AN, only (p=0.029).

CONCLUSIONS

This study found differences in health risk among an obese, ethnically diverse sample of children. cMets is a more sensitive marker of metabolic change compared with MS, especially when AN status and race are considered. cMets may pose an opportunity for the clinician to evaluate the interaction of health risks on the health status of obese children.

Continuous and Dichotomous Metabolic Syndrome Definitions in Youth Predict Adult Type 2 Diabetes and Carotid Artery Intima Media Thickness: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the utility of continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) scores vs a dichotomous metabolic syndrome (MetS) definition in youth to predict adult type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT).

STUDY DESIGN

Participants (n = 1453) from the population-based, prospective, observational Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study who were examined in youth (when aged 9-18 years) and re-examined 15-25 years later. Four cMetS scores were constructed according to procedures most often used in the literature that comprised the youth risk factor inputs of body mass index, blood pressure, glucose, insulin, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and triglycerides. Adult outcomes included T2DM and high carotid IMT (≥ 90 th percentile).

RESULTS

For a 1 SD increase in cMetS scores in youth, participants had a 30%-78% increased risk of T2DM and 12%-61% increased risk of high carotid IMT. Prediction of adult T2DM and high carotid IMT using cMetS scores in youth was essentially no different to a dichotomous MetS definition with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.54-0.60 (continuous definitions) and 0.55-0.59 (dichotomous) with 95% CIs often including 0.5, and integrated discrimination improvement from -0.2% to -0.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

cMetS scores in youth are predictive of cardiometabolic outcomes in adulthood. However, they do not have increased predictive utility over a dichotomous definition of MetS.

Severity of the metabolic syndrome as a predictor of type 2 diabetes between childhood and adulthood: the Princeton Lipid Research Cohort Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to determine the long-term associations of a sex- and race/ethnicity-specific metabolic syndrome (MetS) severity z score from childhood and adulthood with a future diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study with evaluations from the Cincinnati Clinic of the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute Lipids Research Clinic (LRC) 1973-1976 and Princeton Follow-up Study (PFS) 1998-2003, and further disease status from the Princeton Health Update (PHU) 2010-2014. We assessed MetS severity as a predictor of incident type 2 diabetes among 629 cohort participants assessed at both the LRC and PFS and 354 participants at the PHU.

RESULTS

Cohort participants had a mean age of 12.9 years at baseline (LRC), 38.4 years at the PFS and 49.6 years at the most recent follow-up. Childhood MetS z scores were associated with adult MetS z scores (p < 0.01). Compared with individuals who were disease-free at all time-points, those who developed type 2 diabetes by 1998-2003 and 2010-2014 had higher MetS severity z scores in childhood (p < 0.05). For every one-unit elevation in childhood MetS z score, the OR of developing future type 2 diabetes was 2.7 for incident disease by a mean age of 38.5 years (p < 0.01) and 2.8 for incident disease by a mean age of 49.6 years (p < 0.05). Regarding associations with the change in z score from childhood to adulthood, for every one-unit increase in MetS z score over time the OR of developing incident type 2 diabetes by a mean age of 49.6 years was 7.3 (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The severity of MetS in childhood was associated with the incidence of adult type 2 diabetes and the degree of increase in this severity predicted future disease. These findings provide evidence of potential clinical utility in assessing MetS severity to detect risk and follow clinical progress over time.

Genome-wide association study identifies African-ancestry specific variants for metabolic syndrome

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a constellation of metabolic disorders that increase the risk of developing several diseases including type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified variants associated with individual traits comprising MetS, the genetic basis and pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the clustering of these traits remain unclear. We conducted GWAS of MetS in 1427 Africans from Ghana and Nigeria followed by replication testing and meta-analysis in another continental African sample from Kenya. Further replication testing was performed in an African American sample from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. We found two African-ancestry specific variants that were significantly associated with MetS: SNP rs73989312[A] near CA10 that conferred increased risk (P=3.86 × 10(-8), OR=6.80) and SNP rs77244975[C] in CTNNA3 that conferred protection against MetS (P=1.63 × 10(-8), OR=0.15). Given the exclusive expression of CA10 in the brain, our CA10 finding strengthens previously reported link between brain function and MetS. We also identified two variants that are not African specific: rs76822696[A] near RALYL associated with increased MetS risk (P=7.37 × 10(-9), OR=1.59) and rs7964157[T] near KSR2 associated with reduced MetS risk (P=4.52 × 10(-8), Pmeta=7.82 × 10(-9), OR=0.53). The KSR2 locus displayed pleiotropic associations with triglyceride and measures of blood pressure. Rare KSR2 mutations have been reported to be associated with early onset obesity and insulin resistance. Finally, we replicated the LPL and CETP loci previously found to be associated with MetS in Europeans. These findings provide novel insights into the genetics of MetS in Africans and demonstrate the utility of conducting trans-ethnic disease gene mapping studies for testing the cosmopolitan significance of GWAS signals of cardio-metabolic traits.

Continuous Metabolic Syndrome Scores for Children Using Salivary Biomarkers

Background

Binary definitions of the metabolic syndrome based on the presence of a particular number of individual risk factors are limited, particularly in the pediatric population. To address this limitation, we aimed at constructing composite and continuous metabolic syndrome scores (cmetS) to represent an overall measure of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a large cohort of metabolically at-risk children, focusing on the use of the usual clinical parameters (waist circumference (WC) and systolic blood pressure (SBP), supplemented with two salivary surrogate variables (glucose and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC). Two different approaches used to create the scores were evaluated in comparison.

Methods

Data from 8,112 Kuwaiti children (10.00 ± 0.67 years) were used to construct two cmetS for each subject. The first cmetS (cmetS-Z) was created by summing standardized residuals of each variable regressed on age and gender; and the second cmetS (cmetS-PCA) was defined as the first principal component from gender-specific principal component analysis based on the four variables.

Results

There was a graded relationship between both scores and the number of adverse risk factors. The areas under the curve using cmetS-Z and cmetS-PCA as predictors for severe metabolic syndrome (defined as the presence of ≥3 metabolic risk factors) were 0.935 and 0.912, respectively. cmetS-Z was positively associated with WC, SBP, and glucose, but inversely associated with HDLC. Except for the lack of association with glucose, cmetS-PCA was similar to cmetS-Z in boys, but had minimum loading on HDLC in girls. Analysis using quantile regression showed an inverse association of fitness level with cmetS-PCA (p = 0.001 for boys; p = 0.002 for girls), and comparison of cmetS-Z and cmetS-PCA suggested that WC and SBP were main contributory components. Significant alterations in the relationship between cmetS and salivary adipocytokines were demonstrated in overweight and obese children as compared to underweight and normal-weight children.

Conclusion

We have derived continuous summary scores for MetS from a large-scale pediatric study using two different approaches, incorporating salivary measures as surrogate for plasma measures. The derived scores were viable expressions of metabolic risk, and can be utilized to study the relationships of MetS with various aspects of the metabolic disease process.

Is the association of continuous metabolic syndrome risk score with body mass index independent of physical activity? The CASPIAN-III study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Although the association of body mass index (BMI) with metabolic syndrome (MetS) is well documented, there is little knowledge on the independent and joint associations of BMI and physical activity with MetS risk based on a continuous scoring system. This study was designed to explore the effect of physical activity on interactions between excess body weight and continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) in a nationwide survey of Iranian children and adolescents.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Data on 5,625 school students between 10 and 18 years of age were analyzed. BMI percentiles, screen time activity (STA), leisure time physical activity (LTPA) levels, and components of cMetS risk score were extracted. Standardized residuals (z-scores) were calculated for MetS components. Linear regression models were used to study the interactions between different combinations of cMetS, LTPA, and BMI percentiles.

RESULTS

Overall, 984 (17.5%) subjects were underweight, whereas 501 (8.9%) and 451 (8%) participants were overweight and obese, respectively. All standardized values for cMetS components, except fasting blood glucose level, were directly correlated with BMI percentiles in all models (P-trend < 0.001); these associations were independent of STA and LTPA levels. Linear associations were also observed among LTPA and standardized residuals for blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein, and waist circumference (P-trend < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that BMI percentiles are associated with cMetS risk score independent of LTPA and STA levels.

[Metabolic syndrome risk assessment in children: use of a single score]

OBJECTIVE

To calculate a score of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in children and set a cutoff point of this score for the prediction of MetS risk.

METHODS

The study included a random sample of 348 children aged 8 and 9 years of Viçosa, Southeast Brazil. Factor analysis by principal components (PCA) was used to determine, among various risk factors, those with higher degrees of intercorrelation. The chosen variables were: waist circumference (PC), homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA), high density lipoprotein (HDL), triglycerides (TAG) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). Z-scores were created for each one of these parameters and the sum of these z-scores constituted the MetS score. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to identify the cutoff of MetS score, using as gold standard the presence or absence of MetS determined according to criteria age-modified.

RESULTS

The prevalence of MetS in the sample was 8.9% by adopting specific criteria for age, and 24% when considering the cutoff of MetS score. The selected cutoff point of 1.86 was accurate to predict the MetS risk in this sample due to its high sensitivity (96.7%), specificity (82.7%) and AUC of 0.96.

CONCLUSIONS

This original Brazilian study presents the MetS score as a suitable alternative for the study of Metabolic Syndrome in children, given the lack of consensus for the definition of this syndrome in childhood.

A Continuous Metabolic Syndrome Score Is Associated with Specific Biomarkers of Inflammation and CVD Risk in Prepubertal Children

BACKGROUND/AIMS

We aimed to evaluate the use of a continuous metabolic syndrome (MetS) score and to assess the associations of this score with risk biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial damage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in prepubertal children.

METHODS

A total of 677 prepubertal children (295 obese, 146 overweight, and 236 normal-weight) were recruited. MetS traits, markers of inflammation, endothelial damage and CVD risk were measured, and a continuous MetS score was calculated, consisting of the sum/5 of the standardised scores of the MetS components.

RESULTS

The continuous MetS score was significantly associated with active plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (r = 0.406, p < 0.001), adiponectin (r = -0.212, p < 0.001), resistin (r = 0.263, p < 0.001), C-reactive protein (r = 0.254, p < 0.001), tumour necrosis factor alpha (r = 0.120, p = 0.003), myeloperoxidase (r = 0.188, p < 0.001) and sE-selectin (r = 0.278, p < 0.001). Children in the normal-weight, overweight and obese groups with MetS totalled 0 (0%), 1 (0.7%) and 24 (8.7%), respectively, whereas the at-risk children identified using the continuous MetS score in each group totalled 2 (0.85%), 17 (11.6%) and 167 (56.6%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The association of the continuous MetS score with specific risk biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial damage and CVD supports its use in the early identification of children at increased risk of metabolic dysfunction.

Physical activity and sedentary behaviour in relation to cardiometabolic risk in children: cross-sectional findings from the Physical Activity and Nutrition in Children (PANIC) Study

Background

Lower levels of physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) have been associated with increased cardiometabolic risk among children. However, little is known about the independent and combined associations of PA and SB as well as different types of these behaviours with cardiometabolic risk in children. We therefore investigated these relationships among children.

Methods

The subjects were a population sample of 468 children 6–8 years of age. PA and SB were assessed by a questionnaire administered by parents and validated by a monitor combining heart rate and accelerometry measurements. We assessed body fat percentage, waist circumference, blood glucose, serum insulin, plasma lipids and lipoproteins and blood pressure and calculated a cardiometabolic risk score using population-specific Z-scores and a formula waist circumference + insulin + glucose + triglycerides - HDL cholesterol + mean of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. We analysed data using multivariate linear regression models.

Results

Total PA was inversely associated with the cardiometabolic risk score (β = -0.135, p = 0.004), body fat percentage (β = -0.155, p < 0.001), insulin (β = -0.099, p = 0.034), triglycerides (β = -0.166, p < 0.001), VLDL triglycerides (β = -0.230, p < 0.001), VLDL cholesterol (β = -0.168, p = 0.001), LDL cholesterol (β = -0.094, p = 0.046) and HDL triglycerides (β = -0.149, p = 0.004) and directly related to HDL cholesterol (β = 0.144, p = 0.002) adjusted for age and gender. Unstructured PA was inversely associated with the cardiometabolic risk score (β = -0.123, p = 0.010), body fat percentage (β = -0.099, p = 0.027), insulin (β = -0.108, p = 0.021), triglycerides (β = -0.144, p = 0.002), VLDL triglycerides (β = -0.233, p < 0.001) and VLDL cholesterol (β = -0.199, p < 0.001) and directly related to HDL cholesterol (β = 0.126, p = 0.008). Watching TV and videos was directly related to the cardiometabolic risk score (β = 0.135, p = 0.003), body fat percentage (β = 0.090, p = 0.039), waist circumference (β = 0.097, p = 0.033) and systolic blood pressure (β = 0.096, p = 0.039). Resting was directly associated with the cardiometabolic risk score (β = 0.092, p = 0.049), triglycerides (β = 0.131, p = 0.005), VLDL triglycerides (β = 0.134, p = 0.009), VLDL cholesterol (β = 0.147, p = 0.004) and LDL cholesterol (β = 0.105, p = 0.023). Other types of PA and SB had less consistent associations with cardiometabolic risk factors.

Conclusions

The results of our study emphasise increasing total and unstructured PA and decreasing watching TV and videos and other sedentary behaviours to reduce cardiometabolic risk among children.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01803776.

Validation of continuous clinical indices of cardiometabolic risk in a cohort of Australian adults

BACKGROUND

Indicators of cardiometabolic risk typically include non-clinical factors (e.g., smoking). While the incorporation of non-clinical factors can improve absolute risk prediction, it is impossible to study the contribution of non-clinical factors when they are both predictors and part of the outcome measure. Metabolic syndrome, incorporating only clinical measures, seems a solution yet provides no information on risk severity. The aims of this study were: 1) to construct two continuous clinical indices of cardiometabolic risk (cCICRs), and assess their accuracy in predicting 10-year incident cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes; and 2) to compare the predictive accuracies of these cCICRs with existing risk indicators that incorporate non-clinical factors (Framingham Risk Scores).

METHODS

Data from a population-based biomedical cohort (n = 4056) were used to construct two cCICRs from waist circumference, mean arteriole pressure, fasting glucose, triglycerides and high density lipoprotein: 1) the mean of standardised risk factors (cCICR-Z); and 2) the weighted mean of the two first principal components from principal component analysis (cCICR-PCA). The predictive accuracies of the two cCICRs and the Framingham Risk Scores were assessed and compared using ROC curves.

RESULTS

Both cCICRs demonstrated moderate accuracy (AUCs 0.72 - 0.76) in predicting incident cardiovascular disease and/or type 2 diabetes, among men and women. There were no significant differences between the predictive accuracies of the cCICRs and the Framingham Risk Scores.

CONCLUSIONS

cCICRs may be useful in research investigating associations between non-clinical factors and health by providing suitable alternatives to current risk indicators which include non-clinical factors.