Death risk stratification in elderly patients with covid-19. A comparative cohort study in nursing homes outbreaks

Safety, immunogenicity and protective effect of sequential vaccination with inactivated and recombinant protein COVID-19 vaccine in the elderly: a prospective longitudinal study

The safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines in the elderly, a high-risk group for severe COVID-19 infection, have not been fully understood. To clarify these issues, this prospective study followed up 157 elderly and 73 young participants for 16 months and compared the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of two doses of the inactivated vaccine BBIBP-CorV followed by a booster dose of the recombinant protein vaccine ZF2001. The results showed that this vaccination protocol was safe and tolerable in the elderly. After administering two doses of the BBIBP-CorV, the positivity rates and titers of neutralizing and anti-RBD antibodies in the elderly were significantly lower than those in the young individuals. After the ZF2001 booster dose, the antibody-positive rates in the elderly were comparable to those in the young; however, the antibody titers remained lower. Gender, age, and underlying diseases were independently associated with vaccine immunogenicity in elderly individuals. The pseudovirus neutralization assay showed that, compared with those after receiving two doses of BBIBP-CorV priming, some participants obtained immunological protection against BA.5 and BF.7 after receiving the ZF2001 booster. Breakthrough infection symptoms last longer in the infected elderly and pre-infection antibody titers were negatively associated with the severity of post-infection symptoms. The antibody levels in the elderly increased significantly after breakthrough infection but were still lower than those in the young. Our data suggest that multiple booster vaccinations at short intervals to maintain high antibody levels may be an effective strategy for protecting the elderly against COVID-19.

Sustainability in Internal Medicine: A Year-Long Ward-Wide Observational Study

Population aging and multimorbidity challenge health system sustainability, but the role of assistance-related variables rather than individual pathophysiological factors in determining patient outcomes is unclear. To identify assistance-related determinants of sustainable hospital healthcare, all patients hospitalised in an Internal Medicine Unit (n = 1073) were enrolled in a prospective year-long observational study and split 2:1 into a training (n = 726) and a validation subset (n = 347). Demographics, comorbidities, provenance setting, estimates of complexity (cumulative illness rating scale, CIRS: total, comorbidity, CIRS-CI, and severity, CIRS-SI subscores) and intensity of care (nine equivalents of manpower score, NEMS) were analysed at individual and Unit levels along with variations in healthcare personnel as determinants of in-hospital mortality, length of stay and nosocomial infections. Advanced age, higher CIRS-SI, end-stage cancer, and the absence of immune-mediated diseases were correlated with higher mortality. Admission from nursing homes or intensive care units, dependency on activity of daily living, community- or hospital-acquired infections, oxygen support and the number of exits from the Unit along with patient/physician ratios were associated with prolonged hospitalisations. Upper gastrointestinal tract disorders, advanced age and higher CIRS-SI were associated with nosocomial infections. In addition to demographic variables and multimorbidity, physician number and assistance context affect hospitalisation outcomes and healthcare sustainability.

Survival Impact of an On-Site Medicalization Program in the Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks in 11 Nursing Homes

BACKGROUND

The elderly admitted to nursing homes have especially suffered the havoc of the COVID-19 pandemic since most of them are not prepared to face such health problems.

METHODS

An innovative coordinated on-site medicalization program (MP) in response to a sizeable COVID-19 outbreak in three consecutive waves was deployed, sharing coordination and resources among primary care, the referral hospital, and the eleven residences. The objectives were providing the best possible medical care to residents in their environment, avoiding dehumanization and loneliness of hospital admission, and reducing the saturation of hospitals and the risk of spreading the infection. The main outcomes were a composite endpoint of survival or optimal palliative care (SOPC), survival, and referral to the hospital.

RESULTS

587 of 1199 (49%) residents were infected, of whom 123 (21%) died. Patients diagnosed before the start of the MP presented SOPC, survival, and referrals to the hospital of 83%, 74%, and 22.4%, opposite to 96%, 84%, and 10.6% of patients diagnosed while the MP was set up. The SOPC was independently associated with an MP (OR 3.4 [1.6-7.2]).

CONCLUSION

During the COVID-19 outbreak, a coordinated MP successfully obtained a better rate of SOPC while simultaneously reducing the need for hospital admissions, combining optimal medical management with a more compassionate and humanistic approach in older people.

Nosocomial COVID-19: A Nationwide Spanish Study

INTRODUCTION

SARS-CoV-2 is a highly contagious virus, and despite professionals' best efforts, nosocomial COVID-19 (NC) infections have been reported. This work aimed to describe differences in symptoms and outcomes between patients with NC and community-acquired COVID-19 (CAC) and to identify risk factors for severe outcomes among NC patients.

METHODS

This is a nationwide, retrospective, multicenter, observational study that analyzed patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 in 150 Spanish hospitals (SEMI-COVID-19 Registry) from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021. NC was defined as patients admitted for non-COVID-19 diseases with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test on the fifth day of hospitalization or later. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM). The secondary outcome was other COVID-19-related complications. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Of the 23,219 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 1,104 (4.8%) were NC. Compared to CAC patients, NC patients were older (median 76 vs. 69 years; p < 0.001), had more comorbidities (median Charlson Comorbidity Index 5 vs. 3; p < 0.001), were less symptomatic (p < 0.001), and had normal chest X-rays more frequently (30.8% vs. 12.5%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for sex, age, dependence, COVID-19 wave, and comorbidities, NC was associated with lower risk of moderate/severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59-0.87; p < 0.001) and higher risk of acute heart failure (aOR: 1.40; 1.12-1.72; p = 0.003), sepsis (aOR: 1.73; 1.33-2.54; p < 0.001), and readmission (aOR: 1.35; 1.03-1.83; p = 0.028). NC was associated with a higher case fatality rate (39.1% vs. 19.2%) in all age groups. IHM was significantly higher among NC patients (aOR: 2.07; 1.81-2.68; p < 0.001). Risk factors for increased IHM in NC patients were age, moderate/severe dependence, malignancy, dyspnea, moderate/severe ARDS, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, and shock; odynophagia was associated with lower IHM.

CONCLUSIONS

NC is associated with greater mortality and complications compared to CAC. Hospital strategies to prevent NC must be strengthened.

Site of care and factors associated with mortality in unvaccinated Australian aged care residents during COVID-19 outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Residential InReach presents an alternative to hospital admission for aged care residents swabbed for COVID-19, though relative outcomes remain unknown.

AIMS

To compare rates and predictors of 28-day mortality for aged care residents seen by InReach with COVID-19, or 'suspected COVID-19' ('sCOVID'), including hospital vs InReach-based care.

METHODS

Prospective observational study of consecutive patients referred to a Victorian InReach service meeting COVID-19 testing criteria between April-October 2020 (pre-vaccine availability). COVID-19 was determined by positive polymerase chain reaction testing on nasopharyngeal swab. sCOVID-19 was defined as meeting symptomatic Victorian Government testing criteria but persistently swab negative.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in age, gender, Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) or Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) between 152 patients with COVID-19 and 118 patients with sCOVID. 28-day mortality was similar between patients with COVID-19 (35/152, 23%) and sCOVID (32/118, 27%) (p=0.4). For the combined cohort, 28-day mortality was associated with initial oxygen saturation (p<0.001), delirium (p<0.001), hospital transfer for acuity (p=0.02; but not public health/facility reasons), CFS (p=0.04), prior ischaemic heart disease (p=0.01) and dementia (p=0.02). For COVID-19 patients, 28-day mortality was associated with initial oxygen saturation (p=0.02), delirium (p<0.001), and hospital transfer for acuity (p=0.01), but not public health/facility reasons.

CONCLUSION

Unvaccinated aged care residents meeting COVID-19 testing criteria seen by InReach during a pandemic experience high mortality rates, including with negative swab result. Residents remaining within-facility (with InReach) experienced similar adjusted mortality odds to residents transferred to hospital for public health/facility-based reasons, and lower than those transferred for clinical acuity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Institutional, therapeutic, and individual factors associated with 30-day mortality after COVID-19 diagnosis in Canadian long-term care facilities

Background

Canadian long‐term care facility (LTCF) residents experienced higher death rates compared to other countries during the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic. This cohort study analyzes the individual, therapeutic, and institutional factors associated with death in LTCFs.

Methods

Institutional data for 17 LTCFs in Montreal, Canada were obtained from local administrative registries. Individual data for 1197 residents infected by SARS‐CoV‐2 between February 23 and July 11, 2020 were obtained through chart reviews. A multivariable modified Poisson regression model, which accounted for LTCF clustering, was used to identify resident and facility covariates associated with 30‐day mortality after COVID‐19 diagnosis.

Results

Severe shortage of licensed practical nurses (RR 2.60 95% CI 1.20–5.61) and medium‐sized facilities compared to smaller‐sized facilities (RR 2.73 95% CI 1.23–6.07) were associated with 30‐day mortality. Later COVID‐19 diagnosis (RR 0.98 95% CI 0.97–0.99 per additional day) was associated with survival. Individual risk factors for death included age (RR 1.33 95% CI 1.23–1.45 per additional 10 years), male sex (RR 1.46 95% CI 1.24–1.71), functional impairment (RR 1.08 95% CI 1.04–1.12 per unit increase of SMAF), as well as a diagnosis of congestive heart failure (RR 1.31 95% CI 1.04–1.66) and neurocognitive disorder (RR 1.31 95% CI 1.01–1.70). Among severe cases, anticoagulation was associated with survival (RR 0.70 95% CI 0.51–0.96).

Conclusions

This study identified practical nurse shortages and facility size as institutional risk factors for COVID‐19 death. Anticoagulation was associated with survival among severe cases.

Differences in clinical features and mortality in very old unvaccinated patients (≥ 80 years) hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first and successive waves from the multicenter SEMI-COVID-19 Registry (Spain)

Background

Old age is one of the most important risk factors for severe COVID-19. Few studies have analyzed changes in the clinical characteristics and prognosis of COVID-19 among older adults before the availability of vaccines. This work analyzes differences in clinical features and mortality in unvaccinated very old adults during the first and successive COVID-19 waves in Spain.

Methods

This nationwide, multicenter, retrospective cohort study analyzes unvaccinated patients ≥ 80 years hospitalized for COVID-19 in 150 Spanish hospitals (SEMI-COVID-19 Registry). Patients were classified according to whether they were admitted in the first wave (March 1-June 30, 2020) or successive waves (July 1-December 31, 2020). The endpoint was all-cause in-hospital mortality, expressed as the case fatality rate (CFR).

Results

Of the 21,461 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 5,953 (27.7%) were ≥ 80 years (mean age [IQR]: 85.6 [82.3–89.2] years). Of them, 4,545 (76.3%) were admitted during the first wave and 1,408 (23.7%) during successive waves. Patients hospitalized in successive waves were older, had a greater Charlson Comorbidity Index and dependency, less cough and fever, and met fewer severity criteria at admission (qSOFA index, PO2/FiO2 ratio, inflammatory parameters). Significant differences were observed in treatments used in the first (greater use of antimalarials, lopinavir, and macrolides) and successive waves (greater use of corticosteroids, tocilizumab and remdesivir). In-hospital complications, especially acute respiratory distress syndrome and pneumonia, were less frequent in patients hospitalized in successive waves, except for heart failure. The CFR was significantly higher in the first wave (44.1% vs. 33.3%; -10.8%; p < 0.001) and was higher among patients ≥ 95 years (54.4% vs. 38.5%; -15.9%; p < 0.001). After adjustments to the model, the probability of death was 33% lower in successive waves (OR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.57–0.79).

Conclusions

Mortality declined significantly between the first and successive waves in very old unvaccinated patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Spain. This decline could be explained by a greater availability of hospital resources and more effective treatments as the pandemic progressed, although other factors such as changes in SARS-CoV-2 virulence cannot be ruled out.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03191-4.

Prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia can be early predicted combining Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB score and baseline oxygen saturation

In potentially severe diseases in general and COVID-19 in particular, it is vital to early identify those patients who are going to progress to severe disease. A recent living systematic review dedicated to predictive models in COVID-19, critically appraises 145 models, 8 of them focused on prediction of severe disease and 23 on mortality. Unfortunately, in all 145 models, they found a risk of bias significant enough to finally "not recommend any for clinical use". Authors suggest concentrating on avoiding biases in sampling and prioritising the study of already identified predictive factors, rather than the identification of new ones that are often dependent on the database. Our objective is to develop a model to predict which patients with COVID-19 pneumonia are at high risk of developing severe illness or dying, using basic and validated clinical tools. We studied a prospective cohort of consecutive patients admitted in a teaching hospital during the "first wave" of the COVID-19 pandemic. Follow-up to discharge from hospital. Multiple logistic regression selecting variables according to clinical and statistical criteria. 404 consecutive patients were evaluated, 392 (97%) completed follow-up. Mean age was 61 years; 59% were men. The median burden of comorbidity was 2 points in the Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB was abnormal in 18% of patients and basal oxygen saturation on admission lower than 90% in 18%. A model composed of Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, CRB score and basal oxygen saturation can predict unfavorable evolution or death with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.89), and 0.90 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.94), respectively. Prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia can be predicted without laboratory tests using two classic clinical tools and a pocket pulse oximeter.

Are Older People Really More Susceptible to SARS-CoV-2?

Since the outbreak, COVID-19 has spread rapidly across the globe due to its high infectivity and lethality. Age appears to be one of the key factors influencing the status and progression of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as multiple reports indicated that the majority of COVID-19 infections and severe cases are elderly. Most people simply assume that the elderly are more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 than the young, but the mechanism behind it is still open to question. The older and younger people are at similar risk of infection because their infection process is the same and they must be exposed to the virus first. However, whether they will get sick after exposure to the virus and how their disease progresses depend on their immune mechanisms. In older populations, inflammation and immune aging reduce their ability to resist SARS-CoV-2 infection. Meanwhile, under the influence of comorbidities, ACE2 receptor and various cytokines undergo corresponding changes, thus accelerating the entry, replication, and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the body, promoting disease progression, and leading to severe illness and even death. In addition, the relatively fragile mental state of the elderly can also affect their timely recovery from COVID-19. Therefore, once older people are infected with SARS-CoV-2, they are more prone to severe illness and death with a poor prognosis, and they should strengthen protection to avoid exposure to the virus.

Changes in mortality trends amongst common diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden

OBJECTIVE

It has been found that COVID-19 increases deaths within common diseases in countries that have implemented strict lockdowns. In order to elucidate the proper national response to a pandemic, the mortality rates within COVID-19 and various diseases need to be studied in countries whose pandemic response differ. Sweden represents a country with lax pandemic restrictions, and we aimed to study the effects of COVID-19 on historical mortality rates within common diseases during 2020.

METHODS

Regression models and moving averages were used to predict expected premature mortality per the ICD-10 during 2020 using historical data sets. Predicted values were then compared to recorded premature mortality to identify changes in mortality trends.

RESULTS

Seasonal increased mortality was found within neurological diseases. Infectious diseases, tumours and cardiac disease mortality rates decreased compared to expected outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in mortality trends were observed for several common diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Neurological and cardiac conditions, infections and tumours are examples of diseases that were heavily affected by the pandemic. The indirect effects of COVID-19 on certain patient populations should be considered when determining pandemic impact.

Performance of prediction models for short-term outcome in COVID-19 patients in the emergency department: a retrospective study

INTRODUCTION

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a high burden on the healthcare system. Prediction models may assist in triaging patients. We aimed to assess the value of several prediction models in COVID-19 patients in the emergency department (ED).

METHODS

In this retrospective study, ED patients with COVID-19 were included. Prediction models were selected based on their feasibility. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality, secondary outcomes were 14-day mortality and a composite outcome of 30-day mortality and admission to medium care unit (MCU) or intensive care unit (ICU). The discriminatory performance of the prediction models was assessed using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

We included 403 patients. Thirty-day mortality was 23.6%, 14-day mortality was 19.1%, 66 patients (16.4%) were admitted to ICU, 48 patients (11.9%) to MCU, and 152 patients (37.7%) met the composite endpoint. Eleven prediction models were included. The RISE UP score and 4 C mortality scores showed very good discriminatory performance for 30-day mortality (AUC 0.83 and 0.84, 95% CI 0.79-0.88 for both), significantly higher than that of the other models.

CONCLUSION

The RISE UP score and 4 C mortality score can be used to recognise patients at high risk for poor outcome and may assist in guiding decision-making and allocating resources.

Chitinase 3-like-1 is a therapeutic target that mediates the effects of aging in COVID-19

COVID-19 is caused by SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) and is more prevalent and severe in elderly and patients with comorbid diseases (CM). Because chitinase 3-like-1 (CHI3L1) is induced during aging and CM, the relationships between CHI3L1 and SC2 were investigated. Here, we demonstrate that CHI3L1 is a potent stimulator of the SC2 receptor angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and viral spike protein priming proteases (SPP), that ACE2 and SPP are induced during aging, and that anti-CHI3L1, kasugamycin, and inhibitors of phosphorylation abrogate these ACE2- and SPP-inductive events. Human studies also demonstrate that the levels of circulating CHI3L1 are increased in the elderly and patients with CM, where they correlate with COVID-19 severity. These studies demonstrate that CHI3L1 is a potent stimulator of ACE2 and SPP, that this induction is a major mechanism contributing to the effects of aging during SC2 infection, and that CHI3L1 co-opts the CHI3L1 axis to augment SC2 infection. CHI3L1 plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of and is an attractive therapeutic target in COVID-19.

Clinical features and risk factors for mortality among long-term care facility residents hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Spain

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 severely impacted older adults and long-term care facility (LTCF) residents. Our primary aim was to describe differences in clinical and epidemiological variables, in-hospital management, and outcomes between LTCF residents and community-dwelling older adults hospitalized with COVID-19. The secondary aim was to identify risk factors for mortality due to COVID-19 in hospitalized LTCF residents.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional analysis within a retrospective cohort of hospitalized patients≥75 years with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to 160 Spanish hospitals. Differences between groups and factors associated with mortality among LTCF residents were assessed through comparisons and logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 6,189 patients≥75 years, 1,185 (19.1%) were LTCF residents and 4,548 (73.5%) were community-dwelling. LTCF residents were older (median: 87.4 vs. 82.1 years), mostly female (61.6% vs. 43.2%), had more severe functional dependence (47.0% vs 7.8%), more comorbidities (Charlson Comorbidity Index: 6 vs 5), had dementia more often (59.1% vs. 14.4%), and had shorter duration of symptoms (median: 3 vs 6 days) than community-dwelling patients (all, p<.001). Mortality risk factors in LTCF residents were severe functional dependence (aOR:1.79;95%CI:1.13-2.83;p=.012), dyspnea (1.66;1.16-2.39;p=.004), SatO2<94% (1.73;1.27-2.37;p=.001), temperature≥37.8ºC (1.62;1.11-2.38; p=.013); qSOFA index≥2 (1.62;1.11-2.38;p=.013), bilateral infiltrates (1.98;1.24-2.98;p<.001), and high C-reactive protein (1.005;1.003-1.007;p<.001). In-hospital mortality was initially higher among LTCF residents (43.3% vs 39.7%), but lower after adjusting for sex, age, functional dependence, and comorbidities (aOR:0.74,95%CI:0.62-0.87;p<.001).

CONCLUSION

Basal functional status and COVID-19 severity are risk factors of mortality in LTCF residents. The lower adjusted mortality rate in LTCF residents may be explained by earlier identification, treatment, and hospitalization for COVID-19.

Risk Factors for COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality in Institutionalised Elderly People

Background: SARS-CoV-2 has caused a high mortality in institutionalised individuals. There are very few studies on the involvement and the real impact of COVID-19 in nursing homes. This study analysed factors related to morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in institutionalised elderly people. Methods: This cohort study included 842 individuals from 12 nursing homes in Sant Cugat del Vallès (Spain) from 15 March to 15 May 2020. We evaluated individual factors (demographic, dependence, clinical, and therapeutic) and those related to the nursing homes (size and staff) associated with infection and mortality by SARS-CoV-2. Infection was diagnosed by molecular biology test. Results: Of the 842 residents included in the analysis, 784 underwent a Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test; 74.2% were women, the mean age was 87.1 years, and 11.1% died. The PCR test was positive in 44%. A total of 33.4% of the residents presented symptoms compatible with COVID-19 and of these, 80.9% were PCR-positive for SARS-CoV-2. Infection by SARS-CoV-2 among residents was associated with the rate of staff infected in the homes. Mortality by SARS-CoV-2 was related to male sex and a greater grade of dependence measured with the Barthel index. Conclusions: SARS-Cov-2 infection in institutionalised people is associated with the infection rate in nursing home workers and mortality by SARS-Cov-2 with sex and greater dependency according to the Barthel index. Adequate management of nursing home staff and special attention to measures of infection control, especially of individuals with greater dependence, are keys for successful management of future pandemic situations.

Was R < 1 before the English lockdowns? On modelling mechanistic detail, causality and inference about Covid-19

Detail is a double edged sword in epidemiological modelling. The inclusion of mechanistic detail in models of highly complex systems has the potential to increase realism, but it also increases the number of modelling assumptions, which become harder to check as their possible interactions multiply. In a major study of the Covid-19 epidemic in England, Knock et al. (2020) fit an age structured SEIR model with added health service compartments to data on deaths, hospitalization and test results from Covid-19 in seven English regions for the period March to December 2020. The simplest version of the model has 684 states per region. One main conclusion is that only full lockdowns brought the pathogen reproduction number, R, below one, with R ≫ 1 in all regions on the eve of March 2020 lockdown. We critically evaluate the Knock et al. epidemiological model, and the semi-causal conclusions made using it, based on an independent reimplementation of the model designed to allow relaxation of some of its strong assumptions. In particular, Knock et al. model the effect on transmission of both non-pharmaceutical interventions and other effects, such as weather, using a piecewise linear function, b(t), with 12 breakpoints at selected government announcement or intervention dates. We replace this representation by a smoothing spline with time varying smoothness, thereby allowing the form of b(t) to be substantially more data driven, and we check that the corresponding smoothness assumption is not driving our results. We also reset the mean incubation time and time from first symptoms to hospitalisation, used in the model, to values implied by the papers cited by Knock et al. as the source of these quantities. We conclude that there is no sound basis for using the Knock et al. model and their analysis to make counterfactual statements about the number of deaths that would have occurred with different lockdown timings. However, if fits of this epidemiological model structure are viewed as a reasonable basis for inference about the time course of incidence and R, then without very strong modelling assumptions, the pathogen reproduction number was probably below one, and incidence in substantial decline, some days before either of the first two English national lockdowns. This result coincides with that obtained by more direct attempts to reconstruct incidence. Of course it does not imply that lockdowns had no effect, but it does suggest that other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have been much more effective than Knock et al. imply, and that full lockdowns were probably not the cause of R dropping below one.

"Mass gathering events and COVID-19 transmission in Borriana (Spain): A retrospective cohort study"

OBJECTIVE

Mass gathering events (MGEs) are associated with the transmission of COVID-19. Between 6 and 10 March 2020, several MGEs related to the Falles festival took place in Borriana, a municipality in the province of Castellon (Spain). The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 and its association with these MGEs, and to quantify the potential risk factors of its occurrence.

METHODS

During May and June 2020, a population-based retrospective cohort study was carried out by the Public Health Center of Castelló and the Hospital de la Plana in Vila-real. Participants were obtained from a representative sample of 1663 people with potential exposure at six MGEs. A questionnaire survey was carried out to obtain information about attendance at MGEs and COVID-19 disease. In addition, a serologic survey of antibodies against SARS-Cov-2 was implemented. Inverse probability weighted regression was used in the statistical analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1338 subjects participated in the questionnaire survey (80.5%), 997 of whom undertook the serologic survey. Five hundred and seventy cases were observed with an attack rate (AR) of 42.6%; average age was 36 years, 62.3% were female, 536 cases were confirmed by laboratory tests, and 514 cases were found with SARS-CoV-2 total antibodies. Considering MGE exposure, AR was 39.2% (496/1264). A dose-response relationship was found between MGE attendance and the disease, (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 4.11 95% confidence interval [CI]3.25-5.19). Two MGEs with a dinner and dance in the same building had higher risks. Associated risk factors with the incidence were older age, obesity, and upper and middle class versus lower class; current smoking was protective.

CONCLUSIONS

The study suggests the significance of MGEs in the COVID-19 transmission that could explain the subsequent outbreak in Borriana.

Predictors of mortality among long-term care residents with SARS-CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

While individuals living in long-term care (LTC) homes have experienced adverse outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, few studies have examined a broad range of predictors of 30-day mortality in this population.

METHODS

We studied residents living in LTC homes in Ontario, Canada, who underwent PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection from January 1 to August 31, 2020, and examined predictors of all-cause death within 30 days after a positive test for SARS-CoV-2. We examined a broad range of risk factor categories including demographics, comorbidities, functional status, laboratory tests, and characteristics of the LTC facility and surrounding community were examined. In total, 304 potential predictors were evaluated for their association with mortality using machine learning (Random Forest).

RESULTS

A total of 64,733 residents of LTC, median age 86 (78, 91) years (31.8% men), underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing, of whom 5029 (7.8%) tested positive. Thirty-day mortality rates were 28.7% (1442 deaths) after a positive test. Of 59,702 residents who tested negative, 2652 (4.4%) died within 30 days of testing. Predictors of mortality after SARS-CoV-2 infection included age, functional status (e.g., activity of daily living score and pressure ulcer risk), male sex, undernutrition, dehydration risk, prior hospital contacts for respiratory illness, and duration of comorbidities (e.g., heart failure, COPD). Lower GFR, hemoglobin concentration, lymphocyte count, and serum albumin were associated with higher mortality. After combining all covariates to generate a risk index, mortality rate in the highest risk quartile was 48.3% compared with 7% in the first quartile (odds ratio 12.42, 95%CI: 6.67, 22.80, p < 0.001). Deaths continued to increase rapidly for 15 days after the positive test.

CONCLUSIONS

LTC residents, particularly those with reduced functional status, comorbidities, and abnormalities on routine laboratory tests, are at high risk for mortality after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recognizing high-risk residents in LTC may enhance institution of appropriate preventative measures.

Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (R_t ^eff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI: 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI: 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI: 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95% CrI: 5.9 to 10.3%). On 2 December 2020, England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95% CrI: 5.4 to 10.2%) and 22.3% (95% CrI: 19.4 to 25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow nonpharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.

Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rt eff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI: 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI: 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI: 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95% CrI: 5.9 to 10.3%). On 2 December 2020, England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95% CrI: 5.4 to 10.2%) and 22.3% (95% CrI: 19.4 to 25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow nonpharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.

Exploiting the molecular basis of age and gender differences in outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infections

Motivation: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (coronavirus disease, 2019; COVID-19) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients. It has been observed that lethality seems to be related to the age of patients. While ageing has been extensively demonstrated to be accompanied by some modifications at the gene expression level, a possible link with COVID-19 manifestation still need to be investigated at the molecular level. Objectives: This study aims to shed out light on a possible link between the increased COVID-19 lethality and the molecular changes that occur in elderly people. Methods: We considered public datasets of ageing-related genes and their expression at the tissue level. We selected human proteins interacting with viral ones that are known to be related to the ageing process. Finally, we investigated changes in the expression level of coding genes at the tissue, gender and age level. Results: We observed a significant intersection between some SARS-CoV-2 interactors and ageing-related genes, suggesting that those genes are particularly affected by COVID-19 infection. Our analysis evidenced that virus infection particularly involves ageing molecular mechanisms centred around proteins EEF2, NPM1, HMGA1, HMGA2, APEX1, CHEK1, PRKDC, and GPX4. We found that HMGA1 and NPM1 have different expressions in the lung of males, while HMGA1, APEX1, CHEK1, EEF2, and NPM1 present changes in expression in males due to ageing effects. Conclusion: Our study generated a mechanistic framework to clarify the correlation between COVID-19 incidence in elderly patients and molecular mechanisms of ageing. We also provide testable hypotheses for future investigation and pharmacological solutions tailored to specific age ranges.

The Italian document: decisions for intensive care when there is an imbalance between care needs and resources during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

In early 2020, the Italian Society of Anesthesia Analgesia Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI) published clinical ethics recommendations for the allocation of intensive care during COVID-19 pandemic emergency. Later the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS) invited SIAARTI and the Italian Society of Legal and Insurance Medicine to prepare a draft document for the definition of triage criteria for intensive care during the emergency, to be implemented in case of complete saturation of care resources.

METHODS

Following formal methods, including two Delphi rounds, a multidisciplinary group with expertise in intensive care, legal medicine and law developed 12 statements addressing: (1) principles and responsibilities; (2) triage; (3) previously expressed wishes; (4) reassessment and shifting to palliative care; (5) collegiality and transparency of decisions. The draft of the statements, with their explanatory comments, underwent a public consultation opened to Italian scientific or technical-professional societies and other stakeholders (i.e., associations of citizens, patients and caregivers; religious communities; industry; public institutions; universities and research institutes). Individual healthcare providers, lay people, or other associations could address their comments by e-mail.

RESULTS

Eight stakeholders (including scientific societies, ethics organizations, and a religious community), and 8 individuals (including medical experts, ethicists and an association) participated to the public consultation. The stakeholders' agreement with statements was on average very high (ranging from 4.1 to 4.9, on a scale from 1-full disagreement to 5-full agreement). The 4 statements concerning triage stated that in case of saturation of care resources, the intensive care triage had to be oriented to ensuring life-sustaining treatments to as many patients as possible who could benefit from them. The decision should follow full assessment of each patient, taking into account comorbidities, previous functional status and frailty, current clinical condition, likely impact of intensive treatment, and the patient's wishes. Age should be considered as part of the global assessment of the patient.

CONCLUSIONS

Lacking national guidelines, the document is the reference standard for healthcare professionals in case of imbalance between care needs and available resources during a COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, and a point of reference for the medico-legal assessment in cases of dispute.

[Liaison geriatrics with nursing homes in COVID time. A new coordination model arrived to stay]

Older people living in nursing homes fulfil the criteria to be considered as geriatric patients, but they often do not have met their health care needs. Current deficits appeared as a result of COVID-19 pandemic. The need to improve the coordination between hospitals and nursing homes emerged, and in Madrid it materialized with the implantation of Liaison Geriatrics teams or units at public hospitals. The Sociedad Española de Geriatría y Gerontología has defined the role of the geriatricians in the COVID-19 pandemic and they have given guidelines about prevention, early detection, isolation and sectorization, training, care homes classification, patient referral coordination, and the role of the different care settings, among others. These units and teams also must undertake other care activities that have a shortfall currently, like nursing homes-hospital coordination, geriatricians visits to the homes, telemedicine sessions, geriatric assessment in emergency rooms, and primary care and public health services coordination. This paper describes the concept of Liaison Geriatrics and its implementation at the Autonomous Community of Madrid hospitals as a result of COVID-19 pandemic. Activity data from a unit at a hospital with a huge number of nursing homes in its catchment area are reported. The objective is to understand the need of this activity in order to avoid the current fragmentation of care between hospitals and nursing homes. This activity should be consolidated in the future.

Epidemiology and clinical features of COVID-19 outbreaks in aged care facilities: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 outbreaks in aged care facilities (ACFs) often have devastating consequences. However, epidemiologically these outbreaks are not well defined. We aimed to define such outbreaks in ACFs by systematically reviewing literature published during the current COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We searched 11 bibliographic databases for literature published on COVID-19 in ACFs between December 2019 and September 2020. Original studies reporting extractable epidemiological data as part of outbreak investigations or non-outbreak surveillance of ACFs were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020211424.

FINDINGS

We identified 5,148 publications and selected 49 studies from four continents reporting data on 214,380 residents in 8,502 ACFs with 25,567 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Aged care residents form a distinct vulnerable population with single-facility attack rates of 45% [95% CI 32-58%] and case fatality rates of 23% [95% CI 18-28%]. Of the cases, 31% [95% CI 28-34%] were asymptomatic. The rate of hospitalization amongst residents was 37% [95% CI 35-39%]. Data from 21 outbreaks identified a resident as the index case in 58% of outbreaks and a staff member in 42%. Findings from the included studies were heterogeneous and of low to moderate quality in risk of bias assessment.

INTERPRETATION

The clinical presentation of COVID-19 varies widely in ACFs residents, from asymptomatic to highly serious cases. Preventing the introduction of COVID-19 into ACFs is key, and both residents and staff are a priority group for COVID-19 vaccination. Rapid diagnosis, identification of primary and secondary cases and close contacts plus their isolation and quarantine are of paramount importance.

FUNDING

Queensland Advancing Clinical Research Fellowship awarded to Prof. Gulam Khandaker by Queensland Health's Health Innovation, Investment and Research Office (HIRO), Office of the Director-General.

Chitinase 3-like-1 is a Therapeutic Target That Mediates the Effects of Aging in COVID-19

COVID-19 is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 (SC2) virus and is more prevalent and severe in the elderly and patients with comorbid diseases (CM). Because chitinase 3-like-1 (CHI3L1) is induced during aging and CM, the relationships between CHI3L1 and SC2 were investigated. Here we demonstrate that CHI3L1 is a potent stimulator of the SC2 receptor ACE2 and viral spike protein priming proteases (SPP), that ACE2 and SPP are induced during aging and that anti-CHI3L1, kasugamycin and inhibitors of phosphorylation, abrogate these ACE2- and SPP- inductive events. Human studies also demonstrated that the levels of circulating CHI3L1 are increased in the elderly and patients with CM where they correlate with COVID-19 severity. These studies demonstrate that CHI3L1 is a potent stimulator of ACE2 and SPP; that this induction is a major mechanism contributing to the effects of aging during SC2 infection and that CHI3L1 coopts the CHI3L1 axis to augment SC2 infection. CHI3L1 plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of and is an attractive therapeutic target in COVID-19.

Safety and Efficacy of Convalescent Plasma in Elderly COVID-19 Patients: The RESCUE Trial

Objective

To assess the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma (CP) transfusion in elderly people with moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) living in a long-term care facility (LTCF).

Patients and Methods

Twenty-two consecutive elderly patients with COVID-19 infection living in an LTCF in Lombardy, Italy, who were given CP during May 15 to July 31, 2020, were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Their clinical, instrumental, and laboratory parameters were assessed following the CP treatment. The overall mortality rate in this group was compared with that recorded in other LTCFs in Lombardy during the 3-month period from March to May 2020.

Results

Of the 22 patients enrolled, 68.2% (n=15) received 1 CP unit, 27.3% (n=6) received 2 units, and 4.5% (n=1) received 3 units. Of the CP units transfused, 76.7% (23/30) had a neutralizing antibody titer of 1:160 or greater. No adverse reactions were recorded during or after CP administration. Improvements in clinical, functional, radiologic, and laboratory parameters during the 14 days after CP transfusion were observed in all 19 patients who survived. Viral clearance was achieved in all patients by the end of follow-up (median, 66 days; interquartile range, 48-80 days). The overall mortality rate was 13.6% (3/22), which compared favorably with that in the control group (38.3% [281/733]; P=.02) and corresponded to a 65% reduction in mortality risk.

Conclusion

Early administration of CP with an adequate anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 antibody titer to elderly symptomatic patients with COVID-19 infection in an LTCF was safe and effective in eliminating the virus, restoring patients' immunity, and blocking the progression of COVID-19 infection, thereby improving patients' survival.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04569188.

Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19 Older Patients with Specifically Developed Scores

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Several scoring systems have been specifically developed for risk stratification in COVID-19 patients.

DESIGN

We compared, in a cohort of confirmed COVID-19 older patients, three specifically developed scores with a previously established early warning score. Main endpoint was all causes in-hospital death.

SETTING

This is a single-center, retrospective observational study, conducted in the Emergency Department (ED) of an urban teaching hospital, referral center for COVID-19.

PARTICIPANTS

We reviewed the clinical records of the confirmed COVID-19 patients aged 60 years or more consecutively admitted to our ED over a 6-week period (March 1st to April 15th, 2020). A total of 210 patients, aged between 60 and 98 years were included in the study cohort.

MEASUREMENTS

International Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Consortium Clinical Characterization Protocol-Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium (ISARIC-4C) score, COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score (COVID-GRAM), quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI), National Early Warning Score (NEWS).

RESULTS

Median age was 74 (67-82) and 133 (63.3%) were males. Globally, 42 patients (20.0%) deceased. All the score evaluated showed a fairly good predictive value with respect to in-hospital death. The ISARIC-4C score had the highest area under ROC curve (AUROC) 0.799 (0.738-0.851), followed by the COVID-GRAM 0.785 (0.723-0.838), NEWS 0.764 (0.700-0.819), and qCSI 0.749 (0.685-0.806). However, these differences were not statistical significant.

CONCLUSION

Among the evaluated scores, the ISARIC-4C and the COVID-GRAM, calculated at ED admission, had the best performance, although the qCSI had similar efficacy by evaluating only three items. However, the NEWS, already widely validated in clinical practice, had a similar performance and could be appropriate for older patients with COVID-19.

Clinical Characteristics, Frailty, and Mortality of Residents With COVID-19 in Nursing Homes of a Region of Madrid

Objectives

To describe the clinical characteristics, 30-day mortality, and associated factors of patients living in nursing homes (NH) with COVID-19, from March 20 to June 1, 2020.

Design

This is a retrospective study. A geriatric hospital-based team acted as a consultant and coordinated the care of older people living in NHs from the hospital.

Setting and Participants

A total of 630 patients aged 70 and older with Coronavirus Disease 2019 COVID-19 living in 55 NHs.

Methods

A logistic regression was performed to analyze the factors associated with mortality. In addition, Kaplan-Meier curves were applied according to mortality and its associated factors using the log-rank Mantel-Cox test.

Results

The diagnosis of COVID-19 was mainly made by clinical compatibility (N = 430). Median age was 87 years, 64.6% were women and 45.9% were transferred to be cared for at the hospital. A total of 282 patients died (44.7%) within the 30 days of first attention by the team. A severe form of COVID-19 occurred in 473 patients, and the most frequent symptoms were dyspnea (n = 332) and altered level of consciousness (n = 301). According to multiple logistic regression, male sex (P = .019), the Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) ≥6 (P = .004), dementia (P = .012), dyspnea (P < .001), and having a severe form of COVID-19 (P = .001), were associated with mortality, whereas age and care setting were not.

Conclusions and Implications

Mortality of the residents living in NHs with COVID-19 was almost 45%. The altered level of consciousness as an atypical presentation of COVID-19 should be considered in this population. A severe form of the disease, present in more than three-quarters of patients, was associated with mortality, apart from the male sex, CFS ≥6, dementia, and dyspnea, whereas age and care setting were not. These findings may also help to recognize patients in which the Advance Care Planning process is especially urgent to assist in the decisions about their care.

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE

To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease.

DESIGN

Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model.

DATA EXTRACTION

At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool).

RESULTS

37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models.

CONCLUSION

Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245.

READERS' NOTE

This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.