Estimation of seroprevalence of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using preserved serum at an outpatient setting in Kobe, Japan: A cross-sectional study

Disproportionate Rates of COVID-19 Among Black Canadian Communities: Lessons from a Cross-Sectional Study in the First Year of the Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Racialized communities, including Black Canadians, have disproportionately higher COVID-19 cases. We examined the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 infection has affected the Black Canadian community and the factors associated with the infection.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey in an area of Ontario (northwest Toronto/Peel Region) with a high proportion of Black residents along with 2 areas that have lower proportions of Black residents (Oakville and London, Ontario). SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies were determined using the EUROIMMUN assay. The study was conducted between August 15, 2020, and December 15, 2020.

RESULTS

Among 387 evaluable subjects, the majority, 273 (70.5%), were enrolled from northwest Toronto and adjoining suburban areas of Peel, Ontario. The seropositivity values for Oakville and London were comparable (3.3% (2/60; 95% CI 0.4-11.5) and 3.9% (2/51; 95% CI 0.5-13.5), respectively). Relative to these areas, the seropositivity was higher for the northwest Toronto/Peel area at 12.1% (33/273), relative risk (RR) 3.35 (1.22-9.25). Persons 19 years of age or less had the highest seropositivity (10/50; 20.0%, 95% CI 10.3-33.7%), RR 2.27 (1.23-3.59). There was a trend for an interaction effect between race and location of residence as this relates to the relative risk of seropositivity.

INTERPRETATION

During the early phases of the pandemic, the seropositivity within a COVID-19 high-prevalence zone was threefold greater than lower prevalence areas of Ontario. Black individuals were among those with the highest seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2.

Geography Influences Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Serological Response in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Multinational Analysis From the ICARUS-IBD Consortium

BACKGROUND

Beyond systematic reviews and meta-analyses, there have been no direct studies of serological response to COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) across continents. In particular, there has been limited data from Asia, with no data reported from India. The ICARUS-IBD (International study of COVID-19 Antibody Response Under Sustained immunosuppression in IBD) consortium assessed serological response to SARS-CoV-2 in patients with IBD in North America, Europe, and Asia.

METHODS

The ICARUS-IBD study is a multicenter observational cohort study spanning sites in 7 countries. We report seroprevalence data from 2303 patients with IBD before COVID-19 vaccination between May 2020 and November 2021. SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike and anti-nucleocapsid antibodies were analyzed.

RESULTS

The highest and lowest SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike seropositivity rates were found in Asia (81.2% in Chandigarh and 57.9% in Delhi, India; and 0% in Hong Kong). By multivariable analysis, country (India: odds ratio [OR], 18.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 12.03-26.95; P < .0001; United Kingdom: OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.58-3.72; P < .0001; United States: OR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.27-3.85; P = .005), male sex (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.07-1.99; P = .016), and diabetes (OR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.04-5.46; P = .039) conferred higher seropositivity rates. Biological therapies associated with lower seroprevalence (OR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.15-0.33; P < .0001). Multiple linear regression showed associations between anti-spike and anti-nucleocapsid titers with medications (P < .0001) but not with country (P = .3841).

CONCLUSIONS

While the effects of medications on anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers in patients with IBD were consistent across sites, geographical location conferred the highest risk of susceptibility to serologically detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection. Over half of IBD patients in India were seropositive prior to vaccination. These insights can help to inform shielding advice, therapeutic choices, and vaccine strategies in IBD patients for COVID-19 and future viral challenges.

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 in Oran: Cross-Sectional Study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was introduced in Algeria in March 2020. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Oran, Algeria, and to identify factors associated with seropositivity. This was a cross-sectional seroprevalence study conducted between 7 and 20 January 2021 across all 26 municipalities in the province of Oran. The study employed a random cluster sampling technique stratified by age and sex to select participants from households, who were then administered a rapid serological test. The overall seroprevalence and specific seroprevalences by municipality were calculated, and the number of COVID-19 cases in Oran was estimated. The correlation between population density and seroprevalence was also examined. Among the participants, 422 (35.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 32.9 to 38.4) had a positive serological test for SARS-CoV-2, and eight municipalities had seroprevalence rates above 73%. We found a strong positive correlation between population density and seroprevalence (r = 0.795, P < 0.001), indicating that areas with higher population density had higher numbers of positive COVID-19 cases. Our study provides evidence of a high seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Oran, Algeria. The estimated number of cases based on seroprevalence is much higher than the number of cases confirmed by PCR. Our findings suggest that a large proportion of the population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2, highlighting the need for continued surveillance and control measures to prevent further spread of the virus. IMPORTANCE This is the first and only seroprevalence study of COVID-19 conducted in the general population in Algeria prior to the national vaccination campaign against COVID-19. The significance of this study lies in its contribution to our understanding of the spread of the virus in the population before the implementation of the vaccination program.

Understanding the exceptional pre-vaccination Era East Asian COVID-19 outcomes

During the first year of the pandemic, East Asian countries have reported fewer infections, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19 disease than most countries in Europe and the Americas. Our goal in this paper is to generate and evaluate hypothesis that may explain this striking fact. We consider five possible explanations: (1) population age structure (younger people tend to have less severe COVID-19 disease upon infection than older people); (2) the early adoption of lockdown strategies to control disease spread; (3) genetic differences between East Asian population and European and American populations that confer protection against COVID-19 disease; (4) seasonal and climactic contributors to COVID-19 spread; and (5) immunological differences between East Asian countries and the rest of the world. The evidence suggests that the first four hypotheses are unlikely to be important in explaining East Asian COVID-19 exceptionalism. Lockdowns, in particular, fail as an explanation because East Asian countries experienced similarly good infection outcomes despite vast differences in lockdown policies adopted by different countries to control the COVID-19 epidemic. The evidence to date is consistent with our fifth hypothesis - pre-existing immunity unique to East Asia - but there are still essential parts of this story left for scientists to check.

The SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies, Their Diagnostic Utility, and Their Potential for Vaccine Development

Antibodies (Abs) are important immune mediators and powerful diagnostic markers in a wide range of infectious diseases. Understanding the humoral immunity or the development of effective antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 is a prerequisite for limiting disease burden in the community and aids in the development of new diagnostic, therapeutic, and vaccination options. Accordingly, the role of antiviral antibodies in the resistance to and diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection was explored. Antibody testing showed the potential in adding important diagnostic value to the routine diagnosis and clinical management of COVID-19. They could also play a critical role in COVID-19 surveillance, allowing for a better understanding of the full scope of the disease. The development of several vaccines and the success of passive immunotherapy suggest that anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies have the potential to be used in the treatment and prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this review, we highlight the role of antibodies in the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and provide an update on their protective roles in controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection as well as vaccine development.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

A reliable estimate of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies is increasingly important to track the spread of infection and define the true burden of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. A systematic review and a meta-analysis were conducted with the objective of estimating the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa. A systematic search of the PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar electronic databases was conducted. Thirty-five eligible studies were included. Using meta-analysis of proportions, the overall seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was calculated as 16% (95% CI 13.1-18.9%). Based on antibody isotypes, 14.6% (95% CI 12.2-17.1%) and 11.5% (95% CI 8.7-14.2%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM, respectively, while 6.6% (95% CI 4.9-8.3%) were tested positive for both IgM and IgG. Healthcare workers (16.3%) had higher seroprevalence than the general population (11.7%), blood donors (7.5%) and pregnant women (5.7%). The finding of this systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMA) may not accurately reflect the true seroprevalence status of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa, hence, further seroprevalence studies across Africa are required to assess and monitor the growing COVID-19 burden.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses 5 Months Post Complete Vaccination of Moroccan Healthcare Workers

Data about the duration of antibodies after vaccination show that the protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection begins to decline over time. This study aims to determine anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-S IgG levels in healthcare workers five months after the second vaccination dose. We collected samples from 82 participants who were fully vaccinated with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BBIBP-CorV. We assessed anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using a Euroimmun ELISA and an Abbott Architect ™ SARS-CoV-2 IgG test. Of the 82 participants, 65.85% were seropositive for IgG using ELISA, and 86.59% were positive for IgG according to the Abbott Architect ™ test. Individuals vaccinated with the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine had a median anti-S1 antibody level of 1.810 AU/mL [interquartile range (IQR), 1.080-3.7340] and 171.7 AU/mL [79.9-684.6] according to the Euroimmun ELISA and Abbott Architect test, respectively. These tests indicated that people vaccinated with BBIBP-CorV had a median anti-S1 antibody level of 1.840 AU/mL [0.810-2.960] and 126.7 AU/mL [54.9-474.3], respectively. Statistical analysis showed no significant difference between the positivity rates of the vaccinated individuals, either for gender or for age. In addition, we found no significant difference between the two vaccines. Our study provides information on the longevity of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in people at least five months after vaccination.

Development of a quantitative COVID-19 multiplex assay and its use for serological surveillance in a low SARS-CoV-2 incidence community

A serological COVID-19 Multiplex Assay was developed and validated using serum samples from convalescent patients and those collected prior to the 2020 pandemic. After initial testing of multiple potential antigens, the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein (NP) and receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein were selected for the human COVID-19 Multiplex Assay. A comparison of synthesized and mammalian expressed RBD proteins revealed clear advantages of mammalian expression. Antibodies directed against NP strongly correlated with SARS-CoV-2 virus neutralization assay titers (rsp = 0.726), while anti-RBD correlation was moderate (rsp = 0.436). Pan-Ig, IgG, IgA, and IgM against NP and RBD antigens were evaluated on the validation sample sets. Detection of NP and RBD specific IgG and IgA had outstanding performance (AUC > 0.90) for distinguishing patients from controls, but the dynamic range of the IgG assay was substantially greater. The COVID-19 Multiplex Assay was utilized to identify seroprevalence to SARS-CoV-2 in people living in a low-incidence community in Ithaca, NY. Samples were taken from a cohort of healthy volunteers (n = 332) in early June 2020. Only two volunteers had a positive result on a COVID-19 PCR test performed prior to serum sampling. Serological testing revealed an exposure rate of at least 1.2% (NP) or as high as 5.7% (RBD), higher than the measured incidence rate of 0.16% in the county at that time. This highly sensitive and quantitative assay can be used for monitoring community exposure rates and duration of immune response following both infection and vaccination.

A cross-sectional follow up study to estimate seroprevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 in Kobe, Japan

We conducted a study to estimate the seroprevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Kobe, Japan with positive immunoglobulin G (IgG) rate of 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3%-4.6%) in April 2020. Because there were large concerns about the spread of COVID-19 among citizens thereafter, we conduct a follow-up cross-sectional study to estimate the seroprevalence, and we also added a validation study using a different assay.We conducted cross-sectional serologic testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody using 1000 samples from patients at outpatient settings who visited the clinic from May 26 to June 7, 2020, stratified by the decade of age and sex. We used both Kurabo and Abbott serology assays to identify IgG against SARS-CoV-2.There were 18 and 2 positive IgG among 1000 serum samples using Kurabo and Abbott serology assays, respectively (1.8%, 95% CI 1.1%-2.8%, and 0.2%, 95% CI 0.02%-0.7% respectively). By applying the latter figure to the census of Kobe City (population: 1,518,870), it is estimated that the number of people with positive IgG is 3038 (95% CI: 304-10,632) while a total of 285 patients were identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing at the end of the study period. Assuming Abbott assay as the reference, Kurabo assay had calculated sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 98.4% respectively. Age and sex adjusted prevalence of positivity was calculated to be 0.17%.We found a lower seroprevalence than 2 months before in Kobe city although the figures were still higher than those detected by PCR. Kurabo assay showed more false positives than true positives despite reasonable sensitivity and specificity, due to low prevalence in Kobe.

Sero-prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among healthcare workers: A multicenter study from Egypt

Background

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at a high risk for disease exposure. Given the limited availability of nucleic acid testing by PCR in low resource settings, serological assays can provide useful data on the proportion of HCWs who have recently or previously been infected. Therefore, in this study, we conducted an immunologic study to determine the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in two university hospitals in Egypt.

Methods

in this cross sectional study, HCWs who were working in SARS-CoV-2 Isolation Hospitals were interviewed. Estimating specific antibodies (IgM and IgG) against SARS-CoV-2 was carried out using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay targeting the Spike antigen of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Results

Out of 111, 82 (74%) HCWs accepted to participate with a mean age of 31.5 ± 8.5 years. Anti-SARS-COV2 antibodies were detected in 38/82 (46.3%) of cases with a mean age of 31 years and female HCWs constituted 57.6% of cases. The highest rate of seropositivity was from the nurses (60.5%), and physicians (31.6%) with only (7.9%) technicians. Only 28/82 (34.1%) HCWs reported previous history of COVID19. We reported a statistically significant difference in the timing of exposure (p = 0.010) and the frequency of contact with COVID-19 cases (p = 0.040) between previously infected and on-infected HCWs. Longer time of recovery was reported from IgG positive HCWs (p = 0.036).

Conclusion

The high frequency of seropositive HCWs in investigated hospitals is alarming, especially among asymptomatic personnel. Confirmation of diseased HCWs (among seropositive ones) are warranted.

Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios

OBJECTIVES

Aim of the present paper is the study of the large unreported component, characterizing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic event in Italy, taking advantage of the Istat survey. Particular attention is devoted to the sensitivity and specificity of the serological test and their effects.

METHODS

The model satisfactory reproduces the data of the Italian survey showing a relevant predictive power and relegating in a secondary position models which do not include, in the simulation, the presence of asymptomatic groups. The corrections due to the serological test sensitivity (in particular those ones depending on the symptoms onset) are crucial for a realistic analysis of the unreported (and asymptomatic) components.

RESULTS

The relevant presence of an unreported component during the second pandemic wave in Italy is confirmed and the ratio of reported to unreported cases is predicted to be roughly 1:4 in the last months of year 2020. A method to correct the serological data on the basis of the antibody sensitivity is suggested and systematically applied. The asymptomatic component is also studied in some detail and its amount quantified. A model analyses of the vaccination scenarios is performed confirming the relevance of a massive campaign (at least 80000 immunized per day) during the first six months of the year 2021, to obtain important immunization effects within August/September 2021.

Serologic response to SARS-CoV-2 in an African population

Official case counts suggest Africa has not seen the expected burden of COVID-19 as predicted by international health agencies, and the proportion of asymptomatic patients, disease severity, and mortality burden differ significantly in Africa from what has been observed elsewhere. Testing for SARS-CoV-2 was extremely limited early in the pandemic and likely led to under-reporting of cases leaving important gaps in our understanding of transmission and disease characteristics in the African context. SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence and serologic response data could help quantify the burden of COVID-19 disease in Africa to address this knowledge gap and guide future outbreak response, adapted to the local context. However, such data are widely lacking in Africa. We conducted a cross-sectional seroprevalence survey among 1,192 individuals seeking COVID-19 screening and testing in central Cameroon using the Innovita antibody-based rapid diagnostic. Overall immunoglobulin prevalence was 32%, IgM prevalence was 20%, and IgG prevalence was 24%. IgM positivity gradually increased, peaking around symptom day 20. IgG positivity was similar, gradually increasing over the first 10 days of symptoms, then increasing rapidly to 30 days and beyond. These findings highlight the importance of diagnostic testing and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Cameroon, which likely resulted in artificially low case counts. Rapid antibody tests are a useful diagnostic modality for seroprevalence surveys and infection diagnosis starting 5-7 days after symptom onset. These results represent the first step towards better understanding the SARS-CoV-2 immunological response in African populations.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Saint Petersburg, Russia: a population-based study

Properly conducted serological survey can help determine infection disease true spread. This study aims to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Saint Petersburg, Russia accounting for non-response bias. A sample of adults was recruited with random digit dialling, interviewed and invited for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The seroprevalence was corrected with the aid of the bivariate probit model that jointly estimated individual propensity to agree to participate in the survey and seropositivity. 66,250 individuals were contacted, 6,440 adults agreed to be interviewed and blood samples were obtained from 1,038 participants between May 27 and June 26, 2020. Naïve seroprevalence corrected for test characteristics was 9.0% (7.2-10.8) by CMIA and 10.5% (8.6-12.4) by ELISA. Correction for non-response decreased estimates to 7.4% (5.7-9.2) and 9.1% (7.2-10.9) for CMIA and ELISA, respectively. The most pronounced decrease in bias-corrected seroprevalence was attributed to the history of any illnesses in the past 3 months and COVID-19 testing. Seroconversion was negatively associated with smoking status, self-reported history of allergies and changes in hand-washing habits. These results suggest that even low estimates of seroprevalence can be an overestimation. Serosurvey design should attempt to identify characteristics that are associated both with participation and seropositivity.

Incorporating false negative tests in epidemiological models for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and reconciling with seroprevalence estimates

Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR)-type epidemiologic models, modeling unascertained infections latently, can predict unreported cases and deaths assuming perfect testing. We apply a method we developed to account for the high false negative rates of diagnostic RT-PCR tests for detecting an active SARS-CoV-2 infection in a classic SEIR model. The number of unascertained cases and false negatives being unobservable in a real study, population-based serosurveys can help validate model projections. Applying our method to training data from Delhi, India, during March 15-June 30, 2020, we estimate the underreporting factor for cases at 34-53 (deaths: 8-13) on July 10, 2020, largely consistent with the findings of the first round of serosurveys for Delhi (done during June 27-July 10, 2020) with an estimated 22.86% IgG antibody prevalence, yielding estimated underreporting factors of 30-42 for cases. Together, these imply approximately 96-98% cases in Delhi remained unreported (July 10, 2020). Updated calculations using training data during March 15-December 31, 2020 yield estimated underreporting factor for cases at 13-22 (deaths: 3-7) on January 23, 2021, which are again consistent with the latest (fifth) round of serosurveys for Delhi (done during January 15-23, 2021) with an estimated 56.13% IgG antibody prevalence, yielding an estimated range for the underreporting factor for cases at 17-21. Together, these updated estimates imply approximately 92-96% cases in Delhi remained unreported (January 23, 2021). Such model-based estimates, updated with latest data, provide a viable alternative to repeated resource-intensive serosurveys for tracking unreported cases and deaths and gauging the true extent of the pandemic.

Reconciling estimates of global spread and infection fatality rates of COVID-19: An overview of systematic evaluations

BACKGROUND

Estimates of community spread and infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 have varied across studies. Efforts to synthesize the evidence reach seemingly discrepant conclusions.

METHODS

Systematic evaluations of seroprevalence studies that had no restrictions based on country and which estimated either total number of people infected and/or aggregate IFRs were identified. Information was extracted and compared on eligibility criteria, searches, amount of evidence included, corrections/adjustments of seroprevalence and death counts, quantitative syntheses and handling of heterogeneity, main estimates and global representativeness.

RESULTS

Six systematic evaluations were eligible. Each combined data from 10 to 338 studies (9-50 countries), because of different eligibility criteria. Two evaluations had some overt flaws in data, violations of stated eligibility criteria and biased eligibility criteria (eg excluding studies with few deaths) that consistently inflated IFR estimates. Perusal of quantitative synthesis methods also exhibited several challenges and biases. Global representativeness was low with 78%-100% of the evidence coming from Europe or the Americas; the two most problematic evaluations considered only one study from other continents. Allowing for these caveats, four evaluations largely agreed in their main final estimates for global spread of the pandemic and the other two evaluations would also agree after correcting overt flaws and biases.

CONCLUSIONS

All systematic evaluations of seroprevalence data converge that SARS-CoV-2 infection is widely spread globally. Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global IFR of ~0.15% and ~1.5-2.0 billion infections by February 2021 with substantial differences in IFR and in infection spread across continents, countries and locations.

Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications

Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and government reports that were publicly disseminated prior to 18 September 2020. The systematic review encompassed 113 studies, of which 27 studies (covering 34 geographical locations) satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Age-specific IFRs were computed using the prevalence data in conjunction with reported fatalities 4 weeks after the midpoint date of the study, reflecting typical lags in fatalities and reporting. Meta-regression procedures in Stata were used to analyze the infection fatality rate (IFR) by age. Our analysis finds a exponential relationship between age and IFR for COVID-19. The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. Moreover, our results indicate that about 90% of the variation in population IFR across geographical locations reflects differences in the age composition of the population and the extent to which relatively vulnerable age groups were exposed to the virus. These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza. Moreover, the overall IFR for COVID-19 should not be viewed as a fixed parameter but as intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. Consequently, public health measures to mitigate infections in older adults could substantially decrease total deaths.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates

An important unknown during the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been the infection fatality rate (IFR). This differs from the case fatality rate (CFR) as an estimate of the number of deaths and as a proportion of the total number of cases, including those who are mild and asymptomatic. While the CFR is extremely valuable for experts, IFR is increasingly being called for by policy makers and the lay public as an estimate of the overall mortality from COVID-19.

METHODS

Pubmed, Medline, SSRN, and Medrxiv were searched using a set of terms and Boolean operators on 25/04/2020 and re-searched on 14/05/2020, 21/05/2020 and 16/06/2020. Articles were screened for inclusion by both authors. Meta-analysis was performed in Stata 15.1 by using the metan command, based on IFR and confidence intervals extracted from each study. Google/Google Scholar was used to assess the grey literature relating to government reports.

RESULTS

After exclusions, there were 24 estimates of IFR included in the final meta-analysis, from a wide range of countries, published between February and June 2020. The meta-analysis demonstrated a point estimate of IFR of 0.68% (0.53%-0.82%) with high heterogeneity (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until July 2020, the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.68% (0.53%-0.82%). However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents a completely unbiased point estimate. It is likely that, due to age and perhaps underlying comorbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease. Given issues with mortality recording, it is also likely that this represents an underestimate of the true IFR figure. More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policymaking on this front.

Seroprevalence of COVID-19 in Taiwan revealed by testing anti-SARS-CoV-2 serological antibodies on 14,765 hospital patients

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide pandemic and affected more than 227 countries or territories, resulting in more than 25 million cases with over 0•85 million deaths, as of September 2, 2020. Taiwan has been successful in countering the COVID-19 outbreak, however, the potential risk for asymptomatic infections and the prevalence rates remain unknown. We aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of COVID-19 in Taiwan via serologically testing hospital patients with neither symptoms indicative of nor positive nucleic acid test for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

Residual specimens from laboratory blood tests for outpatient and emergency department patients visiting a medical centre in Taipei, Taiwan, within one week in May and another in July, 2020, were collected. We used Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Assay to screen and further validated cases with high cutoff index by a confirmatory ELISA assay. We also analysed antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 along disease progression in four nucleic acid test confirmed COVID-19 patients.

FINDINGS

Blood samples from a total of 14,765 patients were tested. The unweighted seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 0•07% [95% CI, 0•04%-0•13%]; after weighting with the population demographics of Taiwan, the estimated overall seroprevalence was 0•05% [95% CI, 0•02%-0•10%]. Furthermore, based on data of the four COVID-19 cases, the seroconversion dates for IgM were as early as 9 days and that for IgG 11 days after symptoms onset.

INTERPRETATION

We screened the anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a small-scale population-based study and observed an approximately 0•05% seroprevalence of COVID-19, indicating that the current containment protocols emphasising mask wearing, hand washing, social distancing and mandatory quarantine for all incomers are effective in Taiwan.

FUNDING

Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.

Testing for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): a systematic review and clinical guide to molecular and serological in-vitro diagnostic assays

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its associated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has demanded rapid upscaling of in-vitro diagnostic assays to enable mass screening and testing of high-risk groups, and simultaneous ascertainment of robust data on past SARS-CoV-2 exposure at an individual and a population level. To meet the exponential demand in testing, there has been an accelerated development of both molecular and serological assays across a plethora of platforms. The present review discusses the current literature on these modalities, including nucleic acid amplification tests, direct viral antigen tests and the rapidly expanding laboratory-based and point of care serological tests. This suite of complementary tests will inform crucial decisions by healthcare providers and policy makers, and understanding their strengths and limitations will be critical to their judicious application for the development of algorithmic approaches to treatment and public health strategies.

An assessment of self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms of 227,898 users of a social networking service in Japan: Has the regional risk changed after the declaration of the state of emergency?

Background

In the absence of widespread testing, symptomatic monitoring efforts may allow for understanding the epidemiological situation of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan. We obtained data from a social networking service (SNS) messaging application that monitors self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms in real time in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. We aimed at not only understanding the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in the prefecture, but also highlighting the usefulness of symptomatic monitoring approaches that rely on self-reporting using SNS during a pandemic, and informing the assessment of Japan's emergency declaration over COVID-19.

Methods

We analysed symptoms data (fever over 37.5° and a strong feeling of weariness or shortness of breath), reported voluntarily via SNS chatbot by 227,898 residents of Fukuoka Prefecture during March 27 to May 3, 2020, including April 7, when a state of emergency was declared. We estimated the spatial correlation coefficient between the number of the self-reported cases of COVID-19 related symptoms and the number of PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases in the period (obtained from the prefecture website); and estimated the empirical Bayes age- and sex-standardised incidence ratio (EBSIR) of the symptoms in the period, compared before and after the declaration. The number of symptom cases was weighted by age and sex to reflect the regional population distribution according to the 2015 national census.

Findings

Of the participants, 3.47% reported symptoms. There was a strong spatial correlation of 0.847 (p < 0.001) at municipality level between the weighted number of self-reported symptoms and the number of COVID-19 cases for both symptoms. The EBSIR at post-code level was not likely to change remarkably before and after the declaration of the emergency, but the gap in EBSIR between high-risk and low-risk areas appeared to have increased after the declaration.

Interpretation

While caution is necessary as the data was limited to SNS users, the self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms considered in the study had high epidemiological evaluation ability. In addition, though based on visual assessment, after the declaration of the emergency, regional containment of the infection risk might have strengthened to some extent. SNS, which can provide a high level of real-time, voluntary symptom data collection, can be used to assess the epidemiology of a pandemic, as well as to assist in policy assessments such as emergency declarations.

Funding

The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009).

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Spain is one of the European countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Serological surveys are a valuable tool to assess the extent of the epidemic, given the existence of asymptomatic cases and little access to diagnostic tests. This nationwide population-based study aims to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Spain at national and regional level.

METHODS

35 883 households were selected from municipal rolls using two-stage random sampling stratified by province and municipality size, with all residents invited to participate. From April 27 to May 11, 2020, 61 075 participants (75·1% of all contacted individuals within selected households) answered a questionnaire on history of symptoms compatible with COVID-19 and risk factors, received a point-of-care antibody test, and, if agreed, donated a blood sample for additional testing with a chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay. Prevalences of IgG antibodies were adjusted using sampling weights and post-stratification to allow for differences in non-response rates based on age group, sex, and census-tract income. Using results for both tests, we calculated a seroprevalence range maximising either specificity (positive for both tests) or sensitivity (positive for either test).

FINDINGS

Seroprevalence was 5·0% (95% CI 4·7-5·4) by the point-of-care test and 4·6% (4·3-5·0) by immunoassay, with a specificity-sensitivity range of 3·7% (3·3-4·0; both tests positive) to 6·2% (5·8-6·6; either test positive), with no differences by sex and lower seroprevalence in children younger than 10 years (<3·1% by the point-of-care test). There was substantial geographical variability, with higher prevalence around Madrid (>10%) and lower in coastal areas (<3%). Seroprevalence among 195 participants with positive PCR more than 14 days before the study visit ranged from 87·6% (81·1-92·1; both tests positive) to 91·8% (86·3-95·3; either test positive). In 7273 individuals with anosmia or at least three symptoms, seroprevalence ranged from 15·3% (13·8-16·8) to 19·3% (17·7-21·0). Around a third of seropositive participants were asymptomatic, ranging from 21·9% (19·1-24·9) to 35·8% (33·1-38·5). Only 19·5% (16·3-23·2) of symptomatic participants who were seropositive by both the point-of-care test and immunoassay reported a previous PCR test.

INTERPRETATION

The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave.

FUNDING

Spanish Ministry of Health, Institute of Health Carlos III, and Spanish National Health System.

IgG Seroprevalence of COVID-19 among Individuals without a History of the Coronavirus Disease Infection in Daegu, Korea

BACKGROUND

Seroprevalence studies of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from many countries have shown that the number of undiagnosed missing cases is much larger than that of confirmed cases, irrespective of seroprevalence levels. Considering the strategy of Korea entailing massive testing and contact tracing from the beginning of epidemic, the number of undiagnosed missing cases in Korea may be negligible. This study was conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of COVID-19 among individuals who were never diagnosed with COVID-19 in Daegu, the epicenter of COVID-19 epidemic in Korea.

METHODS

Serologic testing for immunoglobulin G antibody based on immunochromatographic assay was conducted in 103 patients and 95 guardians aged 18 to 82 years without any history of COVID-19 diagnosis, who visited outpatient clinics of a single university-affiliated hospital from May 25 to June 5, 2020.

RESULTS

The estimated seroprevalence was 7.6% (95% confidence interval, 4.3%-12.2%) with 15 positive cases. Among them, only one had a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed case among their close contacts and 13 did not experience COVID-19-related symptoms. Seroprevalence was similar between patients and guardians. Based on this figure, the number of undiagnosed missing cases in Daegu was estimated to be a dozen times more than the number of confirmed cases based on PCR testing.

CONCLUSION

Despite the limitation of a small and unrepresentative sample, this is the first study on seroprevalence of COVID-19 in Korea. Our study suggested that the number of undiagnosed missing cases was substantial even with the stringent strategy adopted in Korea, similar to that of other countries.