Time Series Analysis and Forecast of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India using Genetic Programming

Beyond SIRD models: a novel dynamic model for epidemics, relating infected with entries to health care units and application for identification and restraining policy

Epidemic models of susceptibles, exposed, infected, recovered and deceased (SΕIRD) presume homogeneity, constant rates and fixed, bilinear structure. They produce short-range, single-peak responses, hardly attained under restrictive measures. Tuned via uncertain I,R,D data, they cannot faithfully represent long-range evolution. A robust epidemic model is presented that relates infected with the entry rate to health care units (HCUs) via population averages. Model uncertainty is circumvented by not presuming any specific model structure, or constant rates. The model is tuned via data of low uncertainty, by direct monitoring: (a) of entries to HCUs (accurately known, in contrast to delayed and non-reliable I,R,D data) and (b) of scaled model parameters, representing population averages. The model encompasses random propagation of infections, delayed, randomly distributed entries to HCUs and varying exodus of non-hospitalized, as disease severity subdues. It closely follows multi-pattern growth of epidemics with possible recurrency, viral strains and mutations, varying environmental conditions, immunity levels, control measures and efficacy thereof, including vaccination. The results enable real-time identification of infected and infection rate. They allow design of resilient, cost-effective policy in real time, targeting directly the key variable to be controlled (entries to HCUs) below current HCU capacity. As demonstrated in ex post case studies, the policy can lead to lower overall cost of epidemics, by balancing the trade-off between the social cost of infected and the economic contraction associated with social distancing and mobility restriction measures.

A non-autonomous time-delayed SIR model for COVID-19 epidemics prediction in China during the transmission of Omicron variant

<abstract><p>With the continuous evolution of the coronavirus, the Omicron variant has gradually replaced the Delta variant as the prevalent strain. Their inducing epidemics last longer, have a higher number of asymptomatic cases, and are more serious. In this article, we proposed a nonautonomous time-delayed susceptible-infected-removed (NATD-SIR) model to predict them in different regions of China. We obtained the maximum and its time of current infected persons, the final size, and the end time of COVID-19 epidemics from January 2022 in China. The method of the fifth-order moving average was used to preprocess the time series of the numbers of current infected and removed cases to obtain more accurate parameter estimations. We found that usually the transmission rate $ \beta(t) $ was a piecewise exponential decay function, but due to multiple bounces in Shanghai City, $ \beta(t) $ was approximately a piecewise quadratic function. In most regions, the removed rate $ \gamma(t) $ was approximately equal to a piecewise linear increasing function of (a*t+b)*H(t-k), but in a few areas, $ \gamma(t) $ displayed an exponential increasing trend. For cases where the removed rate cannot be obtained, we proposed a method for setting the removed rate, which has a good approximation. Using the numerical solution, we obtained the prediction results of the epidemics. By analyzing those important indicators of COVID-19, we provided valuable suggestions for epidemic prevention and control and the resumption of work and production.</p></abstract>

Applications of time series analysis in epidemiology: Literature review and our experience during COVID-19 pandemic

Time series analysis is a valuable tool in epidemiology that complements the classical epidemiological models in two different ways: Prediction and forecast. Prediction is related to explaining past and current data based on various internal and external influences that may or may not have a causative role. Forecasting is an exploration of the possible future values based on the predictive ability of the model and hypothesized future values of the external and/or internal influences. The time series analysis approach has the advantage of being easier to use (in the cases of more straightforward and linear models such as Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average). Still, it is limited in forecasting time, unlike the classical models such as Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed. Its applicability in forecasting comes from its better accuracy for short-term prediction. In its basic form, it does not assume much theoretical knowledge of the mechanisms of spreading and mutating pathogens or the reaction of people and regulatory structures (governments, companies, etc.). Instead, it estimates from the data directly. Its predictive ability allows testing hypotheses for different factors that positively or negatively contribute to the pandemic spread; be it school closures, emerging variants, etc. It can be used in mortality or hospital risk estimation from new cases, seroprevalence studies, assessing properties of emerging variants, and estimating excess mortality and its relationship with a pandemic.

A novel online multi-task learning for COVID-19 multi-output spatio-temporal prediction

In light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, predicting its trend would significantly impact decision-making. However, this is not a straightforward task due to three main difficulties: temporal autocorrelation, spatial dependency, and concept drift caused by virus mutations and lockdown policies. Although machine learning has been extensively used in related work, no previous research has successfully addressed all three challenges simultaneously. To overcome this challenge, we developed a novel online multi-task regression algorithm that incorporates a chain structure to capture spatial dependency, the ADWIN drift detector to adapt to concept drift, and the lag time series feature to capture temporal autocorrelation. We conducted several comparative experiments based on the number of daily confirmed cases in 20 areas in California and affiliated cities. The results from our experiments demonstrate that our proposed model is superior in adapting to concept drift in COVID-19 data and capturing spatial dependencies across various regions. This leads to a significant improvement in prediction accuracy when compared to existing state-of-the-art batch machine learning methods, such as N-Beats, DeepAR, TCN, and LSTM.

Is It Possible to Predict COVID-19? Stochastic System Dynamic Model of Infection Spread in Kazakhstan

BACKGROUND

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have begun to actively use models to determine the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen. The transmission rate, recovery rate and loss of immunity to the COVID-19 virus change over time and depend on many factors, such as the seasonality of pneumonia, mobility, testing frequency, the use of masks, the weather, social behavior, stress, public health measures, etc. Therefore, the aim of our study was to predict COVID-19 using a stochastic model based on the system dynamics approach.

METHOD

We developed a modified SIR model in AnyLogic software. The key stochastic component of the model is the transmission rate, which we consider as an implementation of Gaussian random walks with unknown variance, which was learned from real data.

RESULTS

The real data of total cases turned out to be outside the predicted minimum-maximum interval. The minimum predicted values of total cases were closest to the real data. Thus, the stochastic model we propose gives satisfactory results for predicting COVID-19 from 25 to 100 days. The information we currently have about this infection does not allow us to make predictions with high accuracy in the medium and long term.

CONCLUSIONS

In our opinion, the problem of the long-term forecasting of COVID-19 is associated with the absence of any educated guess regarding the dynamics of β(t) in the future. The proposed model requires improvement with the elimination of limitations and the inclusion of more stochastic parameters.

Mapping of space-time patterns of infectious disease using spatial statistical models: a case study of COVID-19 in India

INTRODUCTION

Mapping of infectious diseases like COVID-19 is the foremost importance for diseases control and prevention. This study attempts to identify the spatio-temporal pattern and evolution trend of COVID-19 at the district level in India using spatial statistical models.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Active cases of eleven time-stamps (30 March-2 December, 2020) with an approximately 20-day interval are considered. The study reveals applications of spatial statistical tools, i.e. optimised hotspot and outlier analysis (which follow Gi* and Moran I statistics) and emerging hotspot with the base of space time cube, are effective for the spatio-temporal evolution of disease clusters.

RESULTS

The result shows the overall increasing trend of COVID-19 infection with a Mann-Kendall trend score of 2.95 (p = 0.0031). The spatial clusters of high infection (hotspots) and low infection (coldspots) change their location over time but are limited to the districts of the south-western states (Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat) and the north-eastern states (West Bengal, Jharkhand, Assam, Tripura, Manipur, etc.) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A total of eight types of patterns are identified, but the most concerning types are consecutive (7.24% of districts), intensifying (15.13% districts) and persistent (24.34% of districts) which will help health policy makers and the government to prioritize-based resource allocation and control measures.

Optimization using the firefly algorithm of ensemble neural networks with type-2 fuzzy integration for COVID-19 time series prediction

In this paper, the latest global COVID-19 pandemic prediction is addressed. Each country worldwide has faced this pandemic differently, reflected in its statistical number of confirmed and death cases. Predicting the number of confirmed and death cases could allow us to know the future number of cases and provide each country with the necessary information to make decisions based on the predictions. Recent works are focused only on confirmed COVID-19 cases or a specific country. In this work, the firefly algorithm designs an ensemble neural network architecture for each one of 26 countries. In this work, we propose the firefly algorithm for ensemble neural network optimization applied to COVID-19 time series prediction with type-2 fuzzy logic in a weighted average integration method. The proposed method finds the number of artificial neural networks needed to form an ensemble neural network and their architecture using a type-2 fuzzy inference system to combine the responses of individual artificial neural networks to perform a final prediction. The advantages of the type-2 fuzzy weighted average integration (FWA) method over the conventional average method and type-1 fuzzy weighted average integration are shown.

Modelling and forecasting new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria: Comparison of regression, ARIMA and machine learning models

Covid-19 remains a global pandemic threatening hundreds of countries in the world. The impact of Covid-19 has been felt in almost every aspect of life and it has introduced globally, a new normal of livelihood. This global pandemic has triggered unparalleled global health and economic crisis. Therefore, modelling and forecasting the dynamics of this pandemic is very crucial as it will help in decision making and strategic planning. Nigeria as the most populous country in Africa and most populous black nation in the world has been adversely affected by Covid-19 pandemic. This study models and compares forecasting performance of regression, ARIMA and Machine Learning models in predicting new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria. The study obtained data on daily new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria between 27th February, 2020 and 30th November, 2021. Graphical analysis showed that Nigeria had witnessed three waves of Covid-19 with the first wave between 27th February, 2020 and 23rd October, 2020, the second wave between 24th October, 2020 and 20th June, 2021 and the third wave between 21st June, 2021 and 30th November, 2021.The second wave recorded the highest spikes in new cases compared to the first wave and third wave. Result reveals that in terms of forecasting performance, inverse regression model outperformed other regression models considered as it shows lowest RMSE of 0.4130 compared with other regression models. Also, the ARIMA (4, 1, 4) outperformed other ARIMA models as it reveals the highest R² of 0.856 (85.6%), least RMSE (0.6364), AIC (-8.6024) and BIC (-8.5299). Result reveals that Fine tree which is one of the Machine Learning models is more reliable in forecasting new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria compared to other models as Fine tree gave the highest R² of 0.90 (90.0%) and least RMSE of 0.22165. Result of 15 days forecasting indicates that Covid-19 pandemic is not over yet in Nigeria as new cases of Covid-19 is projected to increase on 15/12/2021 with predicted new cases of 988 compared with that of 14/12/2021, where only 729 new cases was predicted. This therefore emphasizes the need to strengthen and maintain the existing Covid-19 preventive measures in Nigeria.

Twitter conversations predict the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases

As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83%-51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.

Comparative analysis of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), long Short-Term memory (LSTM) cells, autoregressive Integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal autoregressive Integrated moving average (SARIMA) for forecasting COVID-19 trends

Several machine learning and deep learning models were reported in the literature to forecast COVID-19 but there is no comprehensive report on the comparison between statistical models and deep learning models. The present work reports a comparative time-series analysis of deep learning techniques (Recurrent Neural Networks with GRU and LSTM cells) and statistical techniques (ARIMA and SARIMA) to forecast the country-wise cumulative confirmed, recovered, and deaths. The Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), ARIMA and SARIMA models were trained, tested, and optimized to forecast the trends of the COVID-19. We deployed python to optimize the parameters of ARIMA which include (p, d, q) representing autoregressive and moving average terms and parameters of SARIMA model include additional seasonal terms which are denoted by (P, D, Q). Similarly, for LSTM and GRU based RNN models’ parameters (number of layers, hidden size, learning rate and number of epochs) are optimized by deploying PyTorch machine learning framework. The best model was chosen based on the lowest Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) values. For most of the time-series data of the countries, deep learning-based models LSTM and GRU outperformed statistical ARIMA and SARIMA models, with an RMSE values that are 40 folds less than that of the ARIMA models. But for some countries statistical (ARIMA, SARIMA) models outperformed deep learning models. Further, we emphasize the importance of various factors such as age, preventive measures and healthcare facilities etc. that play vital role on the rapid spread of COVID-19 pandemic.

Vaccination and isolation based control design of the COVID-19 pandemic based on adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system optimized with the genetic algorithm

The study of the COVID-19 pandemic is of pivotal importance due to its tremendous global impacts. This paper aims to control this disease using an optimal strategy comprising two methods: isolation and vaccination. In this regard, an optimized Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is developed using the Genetic Algorithm (GA) to control the dynamic model of the COVID-19 termed SIDARTHE (Susceptible, Infected, Diagnosed, Ailing, Recognized, Threatened, Healed, and Extinct). The number of diagnosed and recognized people is reduced by isolation, and the number of susceptible people is reduced by vaccination. The GA generates optimal control efforts related to the random initial number of each chosen group as the input data for ANFIS to train Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy structure coefficients. Also, three theorems are presented to indicate the positivity, boundedness, and existence of the solutions in the presence of the controller. The performance of the proposed system is evaluated through the mean squared error (MSE) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The simulation results show a significant decrease in the number of diagnosed, recognized, and susceptible individuals by employing the proposed controller, even with a 70% increase in transmissibility caused by various variants.

A survey of COVID-19 in public transportation: Transmission risk, mitigation and prevention

The COVID-19 pandemic is posing significant challenges to public transport operators by drastically reducing demand while also requiring them to implement measures that minimize risks to the health of the passengers. While the collective scientific understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 pandemic are rapidly increasing, currently there is a lack of understanding of how the COVID-19 relates to public transport operations. This article presents a comprehensive survey of the current research on COVID-19 transmission mechanisms and how they relate to public transport. We critically assess literature through a lens of disaster management and survey the main transmission mechanisms, forecasting, risks, mitigation, and prevention mechanisms. Social distancing and control on passenger density are found to be the most effective mechanisms. Computing and digital technology can support risk control. Based on our survey, we draw guidelines for public transport operators and highlight open research challenges to establish a research roadmap for the path forward.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA-based Time-series Analysis to Forecast near Future and the Effect of School Reopening in India

COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict future scenario to support prevention and recurrence of the disease, aid in healthcare service preparation and help in decision making process. Following that notion, a model has been developed for forecasting future COVID-19 cases in India. The time series analysis indicates that the cases will keep on increasing in India in the coming month as the peak has not been attained until now. A statistical analysis based on the effect of reopening of schools has also been performed. It is revealed that there will be a minor increase in the active cases when pre-/primary schools are opened. The present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel in gaining insight and planning for forthcoming conditions.

Modelling the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in presence of the lockdown and quarantine measures by a kinetic-type reactions approach

We propose a realistic model for the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic subject to the lockdown and quarantine measures, which takes into account the timedelay for recovery or death processes. The dynamic equations for the entire process are derived by adopting a kinetic-type reactions approach. More specifically, the lockdown and the quarantine measures are modelled by some kind of inhibitor reactions where susceptible and infected individuals can be trapped into inactive states. The dynamics for the recovered people is obtained by accounting people who are only traced back to hospitalized infected people. To get the evolution equation we take inspiration from the Michaelis Menten's enzyme-substrate reaction model (the so-called MM reaction) where the enzyme is associated to the available hospital beds, the substrate to the infected people, and the product to the recovered people, respectively. In other words, everything happens as if the hospitals beds act as a catalyzer in the hospital recovery process. Of course, in our case, the reverse MM reaction has no sense in our case and, consequently, the kinetic constant is equal to zero. Finally, the ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for people tested positive to COVID-19 is simply modelled by the following kinetic scheme $S+I\Rightarrow 2I$ with $I\Rightarrow R$ or $I\Rightarrow D$, with $S$, $I$, $R$ and $D$ denoting the compartments susceptible, infected, recovered and deceased people, respectively. The resulting kinetic-type equations provide the ODEs, for elementary reaction steps, describing the number of the infected people, the total number of the recovered people previously hospitalized, subject to the lockdown and the quarantine measure and the total number of deaths. The model foresees also the second wave of infection by coronavirus. The tests carried out on real data for Belgium, France and Germany confirmed the correctness of our model.

Tool Wear Prediction When Machining with Self-Propelled Rotary Tools

The performance of a self-propelled rotary carbide tool when cutting hardened steel is evaluated in this study. Although various models for evaluating tool wear in traditional (fixed) tools have been introduced and deployed, there have been no efforts in the existing literature to predict the progression of tool wear while employing self-propelled rotary tools. The work-tool geometric relationship and the empirical function are used to build a flank wear model for self-propelled rotary cutting tools. Cutting experiments are conducted on AISI 4340 steel, which has a hardness of 54-56 HRC, at various cutting speeds and feeds. The rate of tool wear is measured at various intervals of time. The constant in the proposed model is obtained using genetic programming. When experimental and predicted flank wear are examined, the established model is found to be competent in estimating the rate of rotary tool flank wear progression.

Hybrid Deep Learning Techniques for Predicting Complex Phenomena: A Review on COVID-19

Complex phenomena have some common characteristics, such as nonlinearity, complexity, and uncertainty. In these phenomena, components typically interact with each other and a part of the system may affect other parts or vice versa. Accordingly, the human brain, the Earth’s global climate, the spreading of viruses, the economic organizations, and some engineering systems such as the transportation systems and power grids can be categorized into these phenomena. Since both analytical approaches and AI methods have some specific characteristics in solving complex problems, a combination of these techniques can lead to new hybrid methods with considerable performance. This is why several types of research have recently been conducted to benefit from these combinations to predict the spreading of COVID-19 and its dynamic behavior. In this review, 80 peer-reviewed articles, book chapters, conference proceedings, and preprints with a focus on employing hybrid methods for forecasting the spreading of COVID-19 published in 2020 have been aggregated and reviewed. These documents have been extracted from Google Scholar and many of them have been indexed on the Web of Science. Since there were many publications on this topic, the most relevant and effective techniques, including statistical models and deep learning (DL) or machine learning (ML) approach, have been surveyed in this research. The main aim of this research is to describe, summarize, and categorize these effective techniques considering their restrictions to be used as trustable references for scientists, researchers, and readers to make an intelligent choice to use the best possible method for their academic needs. Nevertheless, considering the fact that many of these techniques have been used for the first time and need more evaluations, we recommend none of them as an ideal way to be used in their project. Our study has shown that these methods can hold the robustness and reliability of statistical methods and the power of computation of DL ones.

Predictive Models for Forecasting Public Health Scenarios: Practical Experiences Applied during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: Forecasting the behavior of epidemic outbreaks is vital in public health. This makes it possible to anticipate the planning and organization of the health system, as well as possible restrictive or preventive measures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this need for prediction has been crucial. This paper attempts to characterize the alternative models that were applied in the first wave of this pandemic context, trying to shed light that could help to understand them for future practical applications. Methods: A systematic literature search was performed in standardized bibliographic repertoires, using keywords and Boolean operators to refine the findings, and selecting articles according to the main PRISMA 2020 statement recommendations. Results: After identifying models used throughout the first wave of this pandemic (between March and June 2020), we begin by examining standard data-driven epidemiological models, including studies applying models such as SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered), SQUIDER, SEIR, time-dependent SIR, and other alternatives. For data-driven methods, we identify experiences using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), evolutionary genetic programming machine learning, short-term memory (LSTM), and global epidemic and mobility models. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to intensive and evolving use of alternative infectious disease prediction models. At this point it is not easy to decide which prediction method is the best in a generic way. Moreover, although models such as the LSTM emerge as remarkably versatile and useful, the practical applicability of the alternatives depends on the specific context of the underlying variable and on the information of the target to be prioritized. In addition, the robustness of the assessment is conditioned by heterogeneity in the quality of information sources and differences in the characteristics of disease control interventions. Further comprehensive comparison of the performance of models in comparable situations, assessing their predictive validity, is needed. This will help determine the most reliable and practical methods for application in future outbreaks and eventual pandemics.

A novel hybrid fuzzy time series model for prediction of COVID-19 infected cases and deaths in India

World is facing stress due to unpredicted pandemic of novel COVID-19. Daily growing magnitude of confirmed cases of COVID-19 put the whole world humanity at high risk and it has made a pressure on health professionals to get rid of it as soon as possible. So, it becomes necessary to predict the number of upcoming cases in future for the preparation of future plan-of-action and medical set-ups. The present manuscript proposed a hybrid fuzzy time series model for the prediction of upcoming COVID-19 infected cases and deaths in India by using modified fuzzy C-means clustering technique. Proposed model has two phases. In phase-I, modified fuzzy C-means clustering technique is used to form basic intervals with the help of clusters centroid while in phase-II, these intervals are upgraded to form sub-intervals. The proposed model is tested against available COVID-19 data for the measurement of its performance based on mean square error, root mean square error and average forecasting error rate. The novelty of the proposed model lies in the prediction of COVID-19 infected cases and deaths for next coming 31 days. Beside of this, estimation for the approximate number of isolation beds and ICU required has been carried out. The projection of the present model is to provide a base for the decision makers for making protection plan during COVID-19 pandemic.

Predicting the impact of the third wave of COVID-19 in India using hybrid statistical machine learning models: A time series forecasting and sentiment analysis approach

BACKGROUND

Since January 2020, India has faced two waves of COVID-19; preparation for the upcoming waves is the primary challenge for public health sectors and governments. Therefore, it is important to forecast future cumulative confirmed cases to plan and implement control measures effectively.

METHODS

This study proposed a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Prophet model to predict daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases. The built-in auto.arima function was first used to select the optimal hyperparameter values of the ARIMA model. Then, the modified ARIMA model was used to find the best fit between the test and forecast data to find the best model parameter combinations. Articles, blog posts, and news stories from virologists, scientists, and health experts related to the third wave of COVID-19 were gathered using the Python web scraping package Beautiful Soup. Their opinions (sentiments) toward the potential third wave were analyzed using natural language processing (NLP) libraries.

RESULTS

A spike in daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases was predicted in India in the next 180 days based on past time series data. The results were validated using various analytical tools and evaluation metrics, producing a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.14 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.06. The NLP processing results revealed negative sentiments in most articles and blogs, with few exceptions.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study suggest that there will be more active cases in the upcoming days. The proposed models can forecast future daily confirmed and cumulative confirmed cases. This study will help the country and states plan appropriate public health measures for the upcoming waves of COVID-19.

The Impacts of Medical Resources on Emerging Self-Limiting Infectious Diseases

The spread of emerging self-limiting infectious diseases is closely related to medical resources. This paper introduces the concept of safe medical resources, i.e., the minimum medical resources that are needed to prevent the overburden of medical resources, and explores the impacts of medical resources on the spread of emerging self-limiting infectious diseases. The results showed that when the isolation rate of hospitalized patients who have mild infections is low, increasing the isolation rate of patients with severe infections requires safe more medical resources. On the contrary, when the isolation rate of hospitalized patients with mild infections is at a high level, increasing the isolation rate of patients with severe infections results in a decrease in safe medical resources. Furthermore, when the isolation rates of patients with mild and severe infections increase simultaneously, safe medical resources decrease gradually. That is to say, when the medical resources are at a low level, it is more necessary to improve the isolation rates of infected individuals so as to avoid the phenomenon of overburdened medical resources and control the spread of emerging infectious diseases. In addition, overwhelmed medical resources increase the number of deaths. Meanwhile, for different emerging self-limiting infectious diseases, as long as the recovery periods are the same, safe medical resources also remain the same.

Time-discrete SIR model for COVID-19 in Fiji

Using the data provided by Fiji's ministry of health and medical services, we apply an implicit time-discrete SIR (susceptible people–infectious people–removed people) model that tracks the transmission and recovering rate at time, t to predict the trend of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Fiji. The model implied time-varying transmission and recovery rates were calculated from 4 May 2021 to 9 October 2021. The estimator functions for these rates were determined, and a short-term (30 days) forecast was done. The model was validated with observed values of the active and recovered cases from 11 October 2021 to 9 December 2021. Statistical results reveal a good fit of profiles between model simulated and the reported COVID-19 data. The gradual decrease of the time-varying basic reproduction number with values below one towards the end of the study period suggest the government's success in controlling the epidemic. The mean reproduction number for the second wave of COVID-19 in Fiji was estimated as 2.7818. The results from this study can be used by researchers, the Fijian government, and the relevant health policy makers in making informed decisions should a third COVID-19 wave occur.

Determining an effective short term COVID-19 prediction model in ASEAN countries

The challenge of accurately short-term forecasting demand is due to model selection and the nature of data trends. In this study, the prediction model was determined based on data patterns (trend data without seasonality) and the accuracy of prediction measurement. The cumulative number of COVID-19 affected people in some ASEAN countries had been collected from the Worldometers database. Three models [Holt’s method, Wright’s modified Holt’s method, and unreplicated linear functional relationship model (ULFR)] had been utilized to identify an efficient model for short-time prediction. Moreover, different smoothing parameters had been tested to find the best combination of the smoothing parameter. Nevertheless, using the day-to-day reported cumulative case data and 3-days and 7-days in advance forecasts of cumulative data. As there was no missing data, Holt’s method and Wright’s modified Holt’s method showed the same result. The text-only result corresponds to the consequences of the models discussed here, where the smoothing parameters (SP) were roughly estimated as a function of forecasting the number of affected people due to COVID-19. Additionally, the different combinations of SP showed diverse, accurate prediction results depending on data volume. Only 1-day forecasting illustrated the most efficient prediction days (1 day, 3 days, 7 days), which was validated by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) model. The study also validated that ULFR was an efficient forecasting model for the efficient model identifying. Moreover, as a substitute for the traditional R-squared, the study applied NSE and R-squared (ULFR) for model selection. Finally, the result depicted that the prediction ability of ULFR was superior to Holt’s when it is compared to the actual data.

A scalable framework for smart COVID surveillance in the workplace using Deep Neural Networks and cloud computing

A smart and scalable system is required to schedule various machine learning applications to control pandemics like COVID-19 using computing infrastructure provided by cloud and fog computing. This paper proposes a framework that considers the use case of smart office surveillance to monitor workplaces for detecting possible violations of COVID effectively. The proposed framework uses deep neural networks, fog computing and cloud computing to develop a scalable and time-sensitive infrastructure that can detect two major violations: wearing a mask and maintaining a minimum distance of 6 feet between employees in the office environment. The proposed framework is developed with the vision to integrate multiple machine learning applications and handle the computing infrastructures for pandemic applications. The proposed framework can be used by application developers for the rapid development of new applications based on the requirements and do not worry about scheduling. The proposed framework is tested for two independent applications and performed better than the traditional cloud environment in terms of latency and response time. The work done in this paper tries to bridge the gap between machine learning applications and their computing infrastructure for COVID-19.

Pandemic coronavirus disease (Covid-19): World effects analysis and prediction using machine-learning techniques

Pandemic novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) is an infectious disease that primarily spreads by droplets of nose discharge when sneezing and saliva from the mouth when coughing, that had first been reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Covid-19 became a global pandemic, which led to a harmful impact on the world. Many predictive models of Covid-19 are being proposed by academic researchers around the world to take the foremost decisions and enforce the appropriate control measures. Due to the lack of accurate Covid-19 records and uncertainty, the standard techniques are being failed to correctly predict the epidemic global effects. To address this issue, we present an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based meta-analysis to predict the trend of epidemic Covid-19 over the world. The powerful machine learning algorithms namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Linear Regression were applied on real time-series dataset, which holds the global record of confirmed, recovered, deaths and active cases of Covid-19 outbreak. Statistical analysis has also been conducted to present various facts regarding Covid-19 observed symptoms, a list of Top-20 Coronavirus affected countries and a number of coactive cases over the world. Among the three machine learning techniques investigated, Naïve Bayes produced promising results to predict Covid-19 future trends with less Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The less value of MAE and MSE strongly represent the effectiveness of the Naïve Bayes regression technique. Although, the global footprint of this pandemic is still uncertain. This study demonstrates the various trends and future growth of the global pandemic for a proactive response from the citizens and governments of countries. This paper sets the initial benchmark to demonstrate the capability of machine learning for outbreak prediction.

COVID-19: average time from infection to death in Poland, USA, India and Germany

There are many discussions in the media about an interval (delay) from the time of the infections to deaths. Apart from the curiosity of the researchers, defining this time interval may, under certain circumstances, be of great organizational and economic importance. The study considers an attempt to determine this difference through the correlations of shifted time series and a specific bootstrapping that allows finding the distance between local maxima on the series under consideration. We consider data from Poland, the USA, India and Germany. The median of the difference's distribution is quite consistent for such diverse countries. The main conclusion of our research is that the searched interval has rather a multimodal form than unambiguously determined.

Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement

This paper is devoted to modeling and predicting COVID-19 confirmed cases through a multiple linear regression. Especially, prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases are extensively studied. Due to long-memory feature of the COVID-19 data, a heterogeneous autoregression (HAR) is adopted with Growth rates and Vaccination rates; it is called HAR-G-V model. Top eight affected countries are taken with their daily confirmed cases and vaccination rates. Model criteria results such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), R 2 , AIC and BIC are reported in the HAR models with/without the two rates. The HAR-G-V model performs better than other HAR models. Out-of-sample forecasting by the HAR-G-V model is conducted. Forecast accuracy measures such as RMSE, MAE, mean absolute percentage error and root relative square error are computed. Furthermore, three types of prediction intervals are constructed by approximating residuals to normal and Laplace distributions, as well as by employing bootstrap procedure. Empirical coverage probability, average length and mean interval score are evaluated for the three prediction intervals. This work contributes three folds: a novel trial to combine both growth rates and vaccination rates in modeling COVID-19; construction and comparison of three types of prediction intervals; and an attempt to improve coverage probability and mean interval score of prediction intervals via bootstrap technique.

Forecasting COVID-19: Vector Autoregression-Based Model

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 infection is an important aspect of public health management. In this paper, we propose an approach to forecasting the spread of the pandemic based on the vector autoregressive model. Concretely, we combine the time series for the number of new cases and the number of new deaths to obtain a joint forecasting model. We apply the proposed model to forecast the number of new cases and deaths in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Test results based on out-of-sample forecast show that the proposed model achieves a high level of accuracy that is superior to many existing methods. Concretely, our model achieves mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.35%, 2.03%, and 3.75% in predicting the number of daily new cases for the three countries, respectively. Furthermore, interpolating our predictions to forecast the cumulative number of cases, we obtain MAPE of 0.0017%, 0.002%, and 0.024%, respectively. The strong performance of the proposed approach indicates that it could be a valuable tool in managing the pandemic.

Erectile dysfunction among patients and health care providers during COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review

COVID-19 pandemic is associated with devastating effects on social, psychological, and economical aspects of survivors. We assume that erectile function (EF) is affected as well. We performed a systematic review of the published articles about the change in EF among patients and health care providers during the COVID-19 pandemic. We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases for English literature using a combination of medical subject headings (MeSH) terms and keywords. We extracted data of erectile dysfunction (ED) rate, international index of erectile function (IIEF), changes related to exposure to the pandemic (Primary objectives), and factors affecting these differences (Secondary objectives). Twenty articles were included in the screening phase. Only 3 articles were eligible for primary objectives, and 2 articles were included for the secondary objective. Three articles revealed an increase in ED cases and a reduction in IIEF-5 scores during the pandemic. Rates of ED have ranged from 32% to 87% of the study populations. Anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) were associated with increased ED rates. We conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with increased rates of ED. Anxiety and depression augment this increase. Health care providers are at higher risk for PTSD, which increases the risk of ED.

Spatio-temporal changes pattern in the hotspot's footprint: a case study of confirmed, recovered and deceased cases of Covid-19 in India

Hotspot detection and the analysis for the hotspot's footprint recently gained more attention due to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus. Different countries face the effect of the virus differently. In India, very little research has been done to find the virus transmission. The paper's main objective is to find changing pattern of the footprint of the hotspot. The confirmed, recovered, and deceased cases of the Covid-19 from April 2020 to Jan 2021 is chosen for the analysis. The study found a sudden change in the hotspot district and a similar change in the footprint from August. Change pattern of the hotspot's footprint will show that October is the most dangerous month for the first wave of the Corona. This type of study is helpful for the health department to understand the behavior of the virus during the pandemic. To find the presence of the clustering pattern in the dataset, we use Global Moran’s I. A value of Global Moran’s I greater than zero shows the clustering in the data set. Dataset is temporal, and for each type of case, the value Global Moran’s I > 0, shows the presence of clustering. Local Moran’s I find the location of cluster i.e., the hotspot. The dataset is granulated at the district level. A district with a high Local Moran’s I surrounded by a high Local Moran’s I value is considered the hotspot. Monte Carlo simulation with 999 simulations is taken to find the statistical significance. So, for the 99% significance level, the p-value is taken as 0.001. A hotspot that satisfies the p-value threshold is considered the statistically significant hotspot. The footprint of the hotspot is found from the coverage of the hotspot. Finally, a change vector is defined that finds the pattern of change in the time series of the hotspot’s footprint.

Modeling and prediction of the third wave of COVID-19 spread in India

In this work, we proposed a simple SEIHR compartmental model to study and analyse the third wave of COVID-19 in India. In addition to the other features of the disease, we also consider the reinfection of recovered individuals in the model. For the purpose of parameter estimation we separate the infective and deaths classes and plot them against the cumulative counts of infective and deaths from data, respectively. The estimated parameters from these two are used for prediction and further numerical simulations.We note that the infective will keep on growing and only slow down after around three months. We have studied impact of various parameters on our model and observe that the parameters associated with mask usage, screening and the care giving toCOVID-19 patients have significant impact on the prevalence and time taken to slow down the infection.We conclude that better use of mask, effective screening and timely care to infective will reduce infective and can help in disease control. Our numerical simulations can explicitly provide a short term prediction for such time line. Also we note that providing better care facilities will help reducing peak as well as the disease burden of predicted infected cases.

A comparison of Covid-19 cases and deaths in Turkey and in other countries

In this study, the characteristics of the Covid-19 pandemic in Turkey are examined in terms of the number of cases and deaths, and a characteristic prediction is made with an approach that employs artificial intelligence. The number of cases and deaths are estimated using the number of tests, the numbers of seriously ill and recovered patients as parameters. The machine learning methods used are linear regression, polynomial regression, support vector regression with different kernel functions, decision tree and artificial neural networks. The obtained results are compared by calculating the coefficient of determination (R ²), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values. When R ² and MAPE values are compared, it is seen that the optimal results for cases in Turkey are obtained with the decision tree, for deaths with polynomial regression method. The results reached for the United States of America and Russia are similar and the optimal results are obtained by polynomial regression. However, while the optimal results are obtained by neural networks in the Indian data, linear regression for the cases in the Brazilian data, neural network for the deaths, decision tree for the cases in France, polynomial regression for the deaths, neural network for the cases in the UK data and decision tree for the deaths are the methods that produced the optimal results. These results also give an idea about the similarities and differences of country characteristics.

Pandemic strategies with computational and structural biology against COVID-19: A retrospective

The emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is the etiologic agent of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, has dominated all aspects of life since of 2020. Research studies on the virus and exploration of therapeutic and preventive strategies has been moving at rapid rates to control the pandemic. In the field of bioinformatics or computational and structural biology, recent research strategies have used multiple disciplines to compile large datasets to uncover statistical correlations and significance, visualize and model proteins, perform molecular dynamics simulations, and employ the help of artificial intelligence and machine learning to harness computational processing power to further the research on COVID-19, including drug screening, drug design, vaccine development, prognosis prediction, and outbreak prediction. These recent developments should help us better understand the viral disease and develop the much-needed therapies and strategies for the management of COVID-19.

Artificial Intelligence for Forecasting the Prevalence of COVID-19 Pandemic: An Overview

Since the discovery of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, a significant surge in forecasting publications has been recorded. Both statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) approaches have been reported; however, the AI approaches showed a better accuracy compared with the statistical approaches. This study presents a review on the applications of different AI approaches used in forecasting the spread of this pandemic. The fundamentals of the commonly used AI approaches in this context are briefly explained. Evaluation of the forecasting accuracy using different statistical measures is introduced. This review may assist researchers, experts and policy makers involved in managing the COVID-19 pandemic to develop more accurate forecasting models and enhanced strategies to control the spread of this pandemic. Additionally, this review study is highly significant as it provides more important information of AI applications in forecasting the prevalence of this pandemic.

Estimating the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality using a novel data-driven hybrid model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition

In this study, we proposed a new data-driven hybrid technique by integrating an ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), with a nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural network (NARANN), called the EEMD-ARIMA-NARANN model, to perform time series modeling and forecasting based on the COVID-19 prevalence and mortality data from 28 February 2020 to 27 June 2020 in South Africa and Nigeria. By comparing the accuracy level of forecasting measurements with the basic ARIMA and NARANN models, it was shown that this novel data-driven hybrid model did a better job of capturing the dynamic changing trends of the target data than the others used in this work. Our proposed mixture technique can be deemed as a helpful policy-supportive tool to plan and provide medical supplies effectively. The overall confirmed cases and deaths were estimated to reach around 176,570 [95% uncertainty level (UL) 173,607 to 178,476] and 3454 (95% UL 3384 to 3487), respectively, in South Africa, along with 32,136 (95% UL 31,568 to 32,641) and 788 (95% UL 775 to 804) in Nigeria on 12 July 2020 using this data-driven EEMD-ARIMA-NARANN hybrid technique. The contributions of this study include three aspects. First, the proposed hybrid model can better capture the dynamic dependency characteristics compared with the individual models. Second, this new data-driven hybrid model is constructed in a more reasonable way relative to the traditional mixture model. Third, this proposed model may be generalized to estimate the epidemic patterns of COVID-19 in other regions.

Recurrent Neural Network and Reinforcement Learning Model for COVID-19 Prediction

Detection and prediction of the novel Coronavirus present new challenges for the medical research community due to its widespread across the globe. Methods driven by Artificial Intelligence can help predict specific parameters, hazards, and outcomes of such a pandemic. Recently, deep learning-based approaches have proven a novel opportunity to determine various difficulties in prediction. In this work, two learning algorithms, namely deep learning and reinforcement learning, were developed to forecast COVID-19. This article constructs a model using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), particularly the Modified Long Short-Term Memory (MLSTM) model, to forecast the count of newly affected individuals, losses, and cures in the following few days. This study also suggests deep learning reinforcement to optimize COVID-19's predictive outcome based on symptoms. Real-world data was utilized to analyze the success of the suggested system. The findings show that the established approach promises prognosticating outcomes concerning the current COVID-19 pandemic and outperformed the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and the Machine Learning model, Logistic Regresion (LR) in terms of error rate.

Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic with heterogeneous autoregression approaches: South Korea

This paper deals with time series analysis for COVID-19 in South Korea. We adopt heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) time series models and discuss the statistical inference for various COVID-19 data. Seven data sets such as cumulative confirmed (CC) case, cumulative recovered (CR) case and cumulative death (CD) case as well as recovery rate, fatality rate and infection rates for 14 and 21 days are handled for the statistical analysis. In the HAR models, model selections of orders are conducted by evaluating root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) as well asR 2 , AIC, and BIC. As a result of estimation, we provide coefficients estimates, standard errors and 95% confidence intervals in the HAR models. Our results report that fitted values via the HAR models are not only well-matched with the real cumulative cases but also differenced values from the fitted HAR models are well-matched with real daily cases. Additionally, because the CC and the CD cases are strongly correlated, we use a bivariate HAR model for the two data sets. Out-of-sample forecastings are carried out with the COVID-19 data sets to obtain multi-step ahead predicted values and 95% prediction intervals. As for the forecasting performances, four accuracy measures such as RMSE, MAE, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root relative square error (RRSE) are evaluated. Contributions of this work are three folds: First, it is shown that the HAR models fit well to cumulative numbers of the COVID-19 data along with good criterion results. Second, a variety of analysis are studied for the COVID-19 series: confirmed, recovered, death cases, as well as the related rates. Third, forecast accuracy measures are evaluated as small values of errors, and thus it is concluded that the HAR model provides a good prediction model for the COVID-19.

A Self-Activated CNN Approach for Multi-Class Chest-Related COVID-19 Detection

Chest diseases can be dangerous and deadly. They include many chest infections such as pneumonia, asthma, edema, and, lately, COVID-19. COVID-19 has many similar symptoms compared to pneumonia, such as breathing hardness and chest burden. However, it is a challenging task to differentiate COVID-19 from other chest diseases. Several related studies proposed a computer-aided COVID-19 detection system for the single-class COVID-19 detection, which may be misleading due to similar symptoms of other chest diseases. This paper proposes a framework for the detection of 15 types of chest diseases, including the COVID-19 disease, via a chest X-ray modality. Two-way classification is performed in proposed Framework. First, a deep learning-based convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture with a soft-max classifier is proposed. Second, transfer learning is applied using fully-connected layer of proposed CNN that extracted deep features. The deep features are fed to the classical Machine Learning (ML) classification methods. However, the proposed framework improves the accuracy for COVID-19 detection and increases the predictability rates for other chest diseases. The experimental results show that the proposed framework, when compared to other state-of-the-art models for diagnosing COVID-19 and other chest diseases, is more robust, and the results are promising.

ANFIS for prediction of epidemic peak and infected cases for COVID-19 in India

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a continuing extensive incident globally affecting several million people's health and sometimes leading to death. The outbreak prediction and making cautious steps is the only way to prevent the spread of COVID-19. This paper presents an Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)-based machine learning technique to predict the possible outbreak in India. The proposed ANFIS-based prediction system tracks the growth of epidemic based on the previous data sets fetched from cloud computing. The proposed ANFIS technique predicts the epidemic peak and COVID-19 infected cases through the cloud data sets. The ANFIS is chosen for this study as it has both numerical and linguistic knowledge, and also has ability to classify data and identify patterns. The proposed technique not only predicts the outbreak but also tracks the disease and suggests a measurable policy to manage the COVID-19 epidemic. The obtained prediction shows that the proposed technique very effectively tracks the growth of the COVID-19 epidemic. The result shows the growth of infection rate decreases at end of 2020 and also has delay epidemic peak by 40-60 days. The prediction result using the proposed ANFIS technique shows a low Mean Square Error (MSE) of 1.184 × 10-3 with an accuracy of 86%. The study provides important information for public health providers and the government to control the COVID-19 epidemic.

Analyzing the Impact of Demographic Variables on Spreading and Forecasting COVID-19

The aim of this study is to analyse the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Bangladesh. This study investigates the impact of demographic variables on the spread of COVID-19 as well as tries to forecast the COVID-19 infected numbers. First of all, this study uses Fisher's Exact test to investigate the association between the infected groups of COVID-19 and demographical variables. Second, it exploits the ANOVA test to examine significant difference in the mean infected number of COVID-19 cases across the population density, literacy rate, and regions/divisions in Bangladesh. Third, this research predicts the number of infected cases in the epidemic peak region of Bangladesh for the year 2021. As a result, from the Fisher's Exact test, we find a very strong significant association between the population density groups and infected groups of COVID-19. And, from the ANOVA test, we observe a significant difference in the mean infected number of COVID-19 cases across the five different population density groups. Besides, the prediction model shows that the cumulative number of infected cases would be raised to around 500,000 in the most densely region of Bangladesh, Dhaka division.

Innovation Strategy of Cultivating Innovative Enterprise Talents for Young Entrepreneurs Under Higher Education

A time series model is designed based on the backpropagation neural network to further optimize the innovation and development of new ventures. The specific situation of two factors is primarily analyzed as follows: the supply and demand ratio of enterprise talents and the state of entrepreneurship in the development of new ventures. The results show that the potential demand of future enterprises for big data talents can be obtained by fitting prediction sequences. Based on the Backpropagation–Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, the post modeling and prediction are carried out, and the coefficient 0.6235 is obtained by substituting the equation of Pearson's correlation coefficient. The analysis results suggest that the matching needs to be strengthened between the cultivation of innovative talents in universities and the demand trend of big data-related positions in enterprises. Moreover, there is a mismatch between the cultivation of innovative talents and the demand for innovative talents. Meanwhile, the mental health level of young entrepreneurs is concerned. The mental health status of young entrepreneurs is compared with the national norm data through the questionnaire survey and statistical data analysis. The results reveal that the mental health level of young entrepreneurs is significantly lower than that of the national norm, and the proportion of anxiety and depression is 29.4% and 27.5%, respectively. Considering the professional characteristics and competitive environment of young entrepreneurs, busy work and the multiple missions given by society to entrepreneurs are the major reasons for their pressure, and mental health problems are serious.

COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak in the Subcontinent: A Data Driven Analysis

Human civilization is experiencing a critical situation that presents itself for a new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This virus emerged in late December 2019 in Wuhan city, Hubei, China. The grim fact of COVID-19 is, it is highly contagious in nature, therefore, spreads rapidly all over the world and causes severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Responding to the severity of COVID-19 research community directs the attention to the analysis of COVID-19, to diminish its antagonistic impact towards society. Numerous studies claim that the subcontinent, i.e., Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, could remain in the worst affected region by the COVID-19. In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it is important to predict the trend of COVID-19 beforehand the planning of effective control strategies. Fundamentally, the idea is to dependably estimate the reproduction number to judge the spread rate of COVID-19 in a particular region. Consequently, this paper uses publicly available epidemiological data of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan to estimate the reproduction numbers. More specifically, we use various models (for example, susceptible infection recovery (SIR), exponential growth (EG), sequential Bayesian (SB), maximum likelihood (ML) and time dependent (TD)) to estimate the reproduction numbers and observe the model fitness in the corresponding data set. Experimental results show that the reproduction numbers produced by these models are greater than 1.2 (approximately) indicates that COVID-19 is gradually spreading in the subcontinent.

CASE-CF: Context Aware Smart Epidemic Control Framework

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has become one of the deadliest pandemics that has affected almost all the nations in the world. Lockdown and systematic re-opening of shopping malls, offices, etc. is still one of the major weapons against this virus. However, the government and medical agencies take long time to reopen the places due to risks involved in this deadly virus. The delay to reopen places has resulted in sharp decline in the growth of economy. In this paper a current context aware framework is proposed which uses multiple inputs for a specific region to decide whether to open it or not. The proposed framework used series of deep neural network models to generate recommendations specific to a particular region. Most of the inputs are real-time and readily available with the government. The main aim is to develop framework which can be used in any kind of pandemic even in small region to easily contain it. However, it has been tested using opensource data available for COVID-19. Data was crawled from web for 22 districts of Haryana state of India. Experimental result proved the efficiency of proposed framework.

A particle swarm optimization approach for predicting the number of COVID-19 deaths

The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has raised huge concerns about the prospect of a major health disaster that would result in a huge number of deaths. This anxiety was largely fueled by the fact that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), responsible for the disease, was so far unknown, and therefore an accurate prediction of the number of deaths was particularly difficult. However, this prediction is of the utmost importance for public health authorities to make the most reliable decisions and establish the necessary precautions to protect people's lives. In this paper, we present an approach for predicting the number of deaths from COVID-19. This approach requires modeling the number of infected cases using a generalized logistic function and using this function for inferring the number of deaths. An estimate of the parameters of the proposed model is obtained using a Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) that requires iteratively solving a quadratic programming problem. In addition to the total number of deaths and number of infected cases, the model enables the estimation of the infection fatality rate (IFR). Furthermore, using some mild assumptions, we derive estimates of the number of active cases. The proposed approach was empirically assessed on official data provided by the State of Qatar. The results of our computational study show a good accuracy of the predicted number of deaths.

Pulmonary COVID-19: Learning Spatiotemporal Features Combining CNN and LSTM Networks for Lung Ultrasound Video Classification

Deep Learning is a very active and important area for building Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) applications. This work aims to present a hybrid model to classify lung ultrasound (LUS) videos captured by convex transducers to diagnose COVID-19. A Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) performed the extraction of spatial features, and the temporal dependence was learned using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Different types of convolutional architectures were used for feature extraction. The hybrid model (CNN-LSTM) hyperparameters were optimized using the Optuna framework. The best hybrid model was composed of an Xception pre-trained on ImageNet and an LSTM containing 512 units, configured with a dropout rate of 0.4, two fully connected layers containing 1024 neurons each, and a sequence of 20 frames in the input layer (20×2018). The model presented an average accuracy of 93% and sensitivity of 97% for COVID-19, outperforming models based purely on spatial approaches. Furthermore, feature extraction using transfer learning with models pre-trained on ImageNet provided comparable results to models pre-trained on LUS images. The results corroborate with other studies showing that this model for LUS classification can be an important tool in the fight against COVID-19 and other lung diseases.

Merits and Limitations of Mathematical Modeling and Computational Simulations in Mitigation of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comprehensive Review

Mathematical models have assisted in describing the transmission and propagation dynamics of various viral diseases like MERS, measles, SARS, and Influenza; while the advanced computational technique is utilized in the epidemiology of viral diseases to examine and estimate the influences of interventions and vaccinations. In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the COVID-19 as a global pandemic and the rate of morbidity and mortality triggers unprecedented public health crises throughout the world. The mathematical models can assist in improving the interventions, key transmission parameters, public health agencies, and countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. Besides, the mathematical models were also used to examine the characteristics of epidemiological and the understanding of the complex transmission mechanism. Our literature study found that there were still some challenges in mathematical modeling for the case of ecology, genetics, microbiology, and pathology pose; also, some aspects like political and societal issues and cultural and ethical standards are hard to be characterized. Here, the recent mathematical models about COVID-19 and their prominent features, applications, limitations, and future perspective are discussed and reviewed. This review can assist in further improvement of mathematical models that will consider the current challenges of viral diseases.

A Fishery Water Quality Monitoring and Prediction Evaluation System for Floating UAV Based on Time Series

In recent years, fishery has developed rapidly. For the vital interests of the majority of fishermen, this paper makes full use of Internet of Things and air–water amphibious UAV technology to provide an integrated system that can meet the requirements of fishery water quality monitoring and prediction evaluation. To monitor target water quality in real time, the water quality monitoring of the system is mainly completed by a six-rotor floating UAV that carries water quality sensors. The GPRS module is then used to realize remote data transmission. The prediction of water quality transmission data is mainly realized by the algorithm of time series comprehensive analysis. The evaluation rules are determined according to the water quality evaluation standards to evaluate the predicted water quality data. Finally, the feasibility of the system is proved through experiments. The results show that the system can effectively evaluate fishery water quality under different weather conditions. The prediction accuracy of the pH, dissolved oxygen content, and ammonia nitrogen content of fishery water quality can reach 99%, 98%, and 99% on sunny days, and reach 92%, 98%, and 91% on rainy days.

COVID-19 and progress towards achieving universal health coverage in Africa: A case of Nigeria

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) 2030 is a global health target, and countries are making efforts to convert plans into tangible results. Nigeria, the most populated country in Africa, has made commitments towards UHC2030 target but is underperforming across many building blocks of health and progress has been slow. The arrival of COVID‐19 poses additional pressure on the already feeble health system causing the government to direct focus towards containing the pandemic. However, existing gaps in health workforce density, weak primary health care infrastructure and inadequate budgetary allocation have resulted in inequitable access to basic healthcare services. This situation weighs most heavily on the poor who are mostly part of the informal economy thereby pushing people further into poverty. On the other hand, COVID‐19 has provided valuable insights into Nigeria's current health system status which hopefully can be helpful in strengthening efforts towards building resilient health system and preparing the country towards future pandemic. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of essential health services and the need to strengthen primary healthcare system. It is, therefore, important that stakeholders in Nigeria and other African countries carry out situation analysis of the current health systems towards achieving UHC2030.

Continent-Wide Analysis of COVID 19: Total Cases, Deaths, Tests, Socio-Economic, and Morbidity Factors Associated to the Mortality Rate, and Forecasting Analysis in 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China in December 2019 and has become a pandemic that resulted in more than one million deaths and infected over 35 million people worldwide. In this study, a continent-wide analysis of COVID-19 cases from 31st December 2019 to 14th June 2020 was performed along with socio-economic factors associated with mortality rates as well as a predicted future scenario of COVID-19 cases until the end of 2020.

METHODS

Epidemiological and statistical tools such as linear regression, Pearson's correlation analysis, and the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model were used in this study.

RESULTS

This study shows that the highest number of cases per million population was recorded in Europe, while the trend of new cases is lowest in Africa. The mortality rates in different continents were as follows: North America 4.57%, Europe 3.74%, South America 3.87%, Africa 3.49%, Oceania and Asia less than 2%. Linear regression analysis showed that hospital beds, GDP, diabetes, and higher average age were the significant risk factors for mortality in different continents. The forecasting analysis since the first case of COVID-19 until 1st January 2021 showed that the worst scenario at the end of 2020 predicts a range from 0 to 300,000 daily new cases and a range from 0 to 16,000 daily new deaths.

CONCLUSION

Epidemiological and clinical features of COVID-19 should be better defined, since they can play an import role in future strategies to control this pandemic.