What big data can do for treatment in psychiatry

Externally validated clinical prediction models for estimating treatment outcomes for patients with a mood, anxiety or psychotic disorder: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Suboptimal treatment outcomes contribute to the high disease burden of mood, anxiety or psychotic disorders. Clinical prediction models could optimise treatment allocation, which may result in better outcomes. Whereas ample research on prediction models is performed, model performance in other clinical contexts (i.e. external validation) is rarely examined. This gap hampers generalisability and as such implementation in clinical practice.

AIMS

Systematically appraise studies on externally validated clinical prediction models for estimated treatment outcomes for mood, anxiety and psychotic disorders by (1) reviewing methodological quality and applicability of studies and (2) investigating how model properties relate to differences in model performance.

METHOD

The review and meta-analysis protocol was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (registration number CRD42022307987). A search was conducted on 8 November 2021 in the databases PubMED, PsycINFO and EMBASE. Random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression were conducted to examine between-study heterogeneity in discriminative performance and its relevant influencing factors.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight studies were included. The majority of studies (n = 16) validated models for mood disorders. Clinical predictors (e.g. symptom severity) were most frequently included (n = 25). Low methodological and applicability concerns were found for two studies. The overall discrimination performance of the meta-analysis was fair with wide prediction intervals (0.72 [0.46; 0.89]). The between-study heterogeneity was not explained by number or type of predictors but by disorder diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Few models seem ready for further implementation in clinical practice to aid treatment allocation. Besides the need for more external validation studies, we recommend close examination of the clinical setting before model implementation.

Delusions and Delinquencies: A Comparison of Violent and Non-Violent Offenders With Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders

The relationship between schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) and violent offending has long been the subject of research. The present study attempts to identify the content of delusions, an understudied factor in this regard, that differentiates between violent and non-violent offenses. Limitations, clinical relevance, and future directions are discussed. Employing a retrospective study design, machine learning algorithms and a comprehensive set of variables were applied to a sample of 366 offenders with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder in a Swiss forensic psychiatry department. Taking into account the different contents and affects associated with delusions, eight variables were identified as having an impact on discriminating between violent and non-violent offenses with an AUC of 0.68, a sensitivity of 30.8%, and a specificity of 91.9%, suggesting that the variables found are useful for discriminating between violent and non-violent offenses. Delusions of grandiosity, delusional police and/or army pursuit, delusional perceived physical and/or mental injury, and delusions of control or passivity were more predictive of non-violent offenses, while delusions with aggressive content or delusions associated with the emotions of anger, distress, or agitation were more frequently associated with violent offenses. Our findings extend and confirm current research on the content of delusions in patients with SSD. In particular, we found that the symptoms of threat/control override (TCO) do not directly lead to violent behavior but are mediated by other variables such as anger. Notably, delusions traditionally seen as symptoms of TCO, appear to have a protective value against violent behavior. These findings will hopefully help to reduce the stigma commonly and erroneously associated with mental illness, while supporting the development of effective therapeutic approaches.

Point of Care Testing (POCT) in Psychopathology Using Fractal Analysis and Hilbert Huang Transform of Electroencephalogram (EEG)

Research has shown that relying only on self-reports for diagnosing psychiatric disorders does not yield accurate results at all times. The advances of technology as well as artificial intelligence and other machine learning algorithms have allowed the introduction of point of care testing (POCT) including EEG characterization and correlations with possible psychopathology. Nonlinear methods of EEG analysis have significant advantages over linear methods. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is a reliable nonlinear method of EEG pre-processing. In this chapter, we compare two existing EEG complexity measures - Higuchi fractal dimension (HFD) and sample entropy (SE), with our newly proposed method using Higuchi fractal dimension from the Hilbert Huang transform (HFD-HHT). We present an example using the three complexity measures on a 2-minute EEG recorded from a healthy 20-year-old male after signal pre-processing. Furthermore, we showed the usefulness of these complexity measures in the classification of major depressive disorder (MDD) with healthy controls. Our study is in line with previous research and has shown an increase in HFD and SE values in the full, alpha and beta frequency bands suggestive of an increase in EEG irregularity. Moreover, the HFD-HHT values decreased in those three bands for majority of electrodes which is suggestive of a decrease in irregularity in the frequency-time domain. We conclude that all three complexity measures can be vital features useful for EEG analysis which could be incorporated in POCT systems.

Fractal Analysis of Electrophysiological Signals to Detect and Monitor Depression: What We Know So Far?

Depression is currently one of the most complicated public health problems with the rising number of patients, increasing partly due to pandemics, but also due to increased existential insecurities and complicated aetiology of disease. Besides the tsunami of mental health issues, there are limitations imposed by ambiguous clinical rules of assessment of the symptoms and obsolete and inefficient standard therapy approaches. Here we are summarizing the neuroimaging results pointing out the actual complexity of the disease and novel attempts to detect depression that are evidence-based, mostly related to electrophysiology. It is repeatedly shown that the complexity of resting-state EEG recorded in patients suffering from depression is increased compared to healthy controls. We are discussing here how that can be interpreted and what we can learn about future effective therapies. Also, there is evidence that novel options of treatment, like different modalities of electromagnetic stimulation, are successful just because they are capable of decreasing that aberrated complexity. And complexity measures extracted from electrophysiological signals of depression patients can serve as excellent features for further machine learning models in order to automatize detection. In addition, after initial detection and even selection of responders for further therapy route, it is possible to monitor the therapeutic flow for one person, which leads us to possible tailored treatment for patients suffering from depression.

Predicting Successful Placements for Youth in Child Welfare with Machine Learning

Out-of-home placement decisions have extremely high stakes for the present and future well-being of children in care because some placement types, and multiple placements, are associated with poor outcomes. We propose that a clinical decision support system (CDSS) using existing data about children and their previous placement success could inform future placement decision-making for their peers. The objective of this study was to test the feasibility of developing machine learning models to predict the best level of care placement (i.e., the placement with the highest likelihood of doing well in treatment) based on each youth's behavioral health needs and characteristics. We developed machine learning models to predict the probability of each youth's treatment success in psychiatric residential care (i.e., Psychiatric Residential Treatment Facility [PRTF]) versus any other placement (AUROCs > 0.70) using data collected in standard care at a behavioral health organization. Placement recommendations based on these machine learning models distinguished between youth who did well in residential care versus non-residential care (e.g., 80% of those who received care in the recommended setting with the highest predicted likelihood of success had above average risk-adjusted outcomes). Then we developed and validated machine learning models to predict the probability of each youth's treatment success across specific placement types in a state-wide system, achieving an average AUROC score of greater than 0.75. Machine learning models based on risk-adjusted behavioral health and functional data show promise in predicting positive placement outcomes and informing future placement decisions for youth in care. Related ethical considerations are discussed.

The same but different. Multidimensional assessment of depression in students of natural science and music

Depression is one of the most common and debilitating health problems, however, its heterogeneity makes a diagnosis challenging. Thus far the restriction of depression variables explored within groups, the lack of comparability between groups, and the heterogeneity of depression as a concept limit a meaningful interpretation, especially in terms of predictability. Research established students in late adolescence to be particularly vulnerable, especially those with a natural science or musical study main subject. This study used a predictive design, observing the change in variables between groups as well as predicting which combinations of variables would likely determine depression prevalence. 102 under- and postgraduate students from various higher education institutions participated in an online survey. Students were allocated into three groups according to their main study subject and type of institution: natural science students, music college students and a mix of music and natural science students at university with comparable levels of musical training and professional musical identity. Natural science students showed significantly higher levels of anxiety prevalence and pain catastrophizing prevalence, while music college students showed significantly higher depression prevalence compared to the other groups. A hierarchical regression and a tree analysis found that depression for all groups was best predicted with a combination of variables: high anxiety prevalence and low burnout of students with academic staff. The use of a larger pool of depression variables and the comparison of at-risk groups provide insight into how these groups experience depression and thus allow initial steps towards personalized support structures.

Evaluating EEG complexity metrics as biomarkers for depression

Nonlinear EEG analysis offers the potential for both increased diagnostic accuracy and deeper mechanistic understanding of psychopathology. EEG complexity measures have previously been shown to positively correlate with clinical depression. In this study, resting state EEG recordings were taken across multiple sessions and days with both eyes open and eyes closed conditions from a total of 306 subjects, 62 of which were in a current depressive episode, and 81 of which had a history of diagnosed depression but were not currently depressed. Three different EEG montages (mastoids, average, and Laplacian) were also computed. Higuchi fractal dimension (HFD) and sample entropy (SampEn) were calculated for each unique condition. The complexity metrics showed high internal consistency within session and high stability across days. Higher complexity was found in open-eye recordings compared to closed eyes. The predicted correlation between complexity and depression was not found. However, an unexpected sex effect was observed, in which males and females exhibited different topographic patterns of complexity.

Understanding mental health through computers: An introduction to computational psychiatry

Computational psychiatry recently established itself as a new tool in the study of mental disorders and problems. Integration of different levels of analysis is creating computational phenotypes with clinical and research values, and constructing a way to arrive at precision psychiatry are part of this new branch. It conceptualizes the brain as a computational organ that receives from the environment parameters to respond to challenges through calculations and algorithms in continuous feedback and feedforward loops with a permanent degree of uncertainty. Through this conception, one can seize an understanding of the cerebral and mental processes in the form of theories or hypotheses based on data. Using these approximations, a better understanding of the disorder and its different determinant factors facilitates the diagnostics and treatment by having an individual, ecologic, and holistic approach. It is a tool that can be used to homologate and integrate multiple sources of information given by several theoretical models. In conclusion, it helps psychiatry achieve precision and reproducibility, which can help the mental health field achieve significant advancement. This article is a narrative review of the basis of the functioning of computational psychiatry with a critical analysis of its concepts.

Predicting dropout from psychological treatment using different machine learning algorithms, resampling methods, and sample sizes

OBJECTIVE

The occurrence of dropout from psychological interventions is associated with poor treatment outcome and high health, societal and economic costs. Recently, machine learning (ML) algorithms have been tested in psychotherapy outcome research. Dropout predictions are usually limited by imbalanced datasets and the size of the sample. This paper aims to improve dropout prediction by comparing ML algorithms, sample sizes and resampling methods.

METHOD

Twenty ML algorithms were examined in twelve subsamples (drawn from a sample of N = 49,602) using four resampling methods in comparison to the absence of resampling and to each other. Prediction accuracy was evaluated in an independent holdout dataset using the F₁-Measure.

RESULTS

Resampling methods improved the performance of ML algorithms and down-sampling can be recommended, as it was the fastest method and as accurate as the other methods. For the highest mean F₁-Score of .51 a minimum sample size of N = 300 was necessary. No specific algorithm or algorithm group can be recommended.

CONCLUSION

Resampling methods could improve the accuracy of predicting dropout in psychological interventions. Down-sampling is recommended as it is the least computationally taxing method. The training sample should contain at least 300 cases.

The Precision in Psychiatry (PIP) study: Testing an internet-based methodology for accelerating research in treatment prediction and personalisation

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based treatments for depression exist but not all patients benefit from them. Efforts to develop predictive models that can assist clinicians in allocating treatments are ongoing, but there are major issues with acquiring the volume and breadth of data needed to train these models. We examined the feasibility, tolerability, patient characteristics, and data quality of a novel protocol for internet-based treatment research in psychiatry that may help advance this field.

METHODS

A fully internet-based protocol was used to gather repeated observational data from patient cohorts receiving internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) (N = 600) or antidepressant medication treatment (N = 110). At baseline, participants provided > 600 data points of self-report data, spanning socio-demographics, lifestyle, physical health, clinical and other psychological variables and completed 4 cognitive tests. They were followed weekly and completed another detailed clinical and cognitive assessment at week 4. In this paper, we describe our study design, the demographic and clinical characteristics of participants, their treatment adherence, study retention and compliance, the quality of the data gathered, and qualitative feedback from patients on study design and implementation.

RESULTS

Participant retention was 92% at week 3 and 84% for the final assessment. The relatively short study duration of 4 weeks was sufficient to reveal early treatment effects; there were significant reductions in 11 transdiagnostic psychiatric symptoms assessed, with the largest improvement seen for depression. Most participants (66%) reported being distracted at some point during the study, 11% failed 1 or more attention checks and 3% consumed an intoxicating substance. Data quality was nonetheless high, with near perfect 4-week test retest reliability for self-reported height (ICC = 0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

An internet-based methodology can be used efficiently to gather large amounts of detailed patient data during iCBT and antidepressant treatment. Recruitment was rapid, retention was relatively high and data quality was good. This paper provides a template methodology for future internet-based treatment studies, showing that such an approach facilitates data collection at a scale required for machine learning and other data-intensive methods that hope to deliver algorithmic tools that can aid clinical decision-making in psychiatry.

Translating Big Data to Clinical Outcomes in Anxiety: Potential for Multimodal Integration

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

This review describes approaches to research on anxiety that attempt to link neural correlates to treatment response and novel therapies. The review emphasizes pediatric anxiety disorders since most anxiety disorders begin before adulthood.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent literature illustrates how current treatments for anxiety manifest diverse relations with a range of neural markers. While some studies demonstrate post-treatment normalization of markers in anxious individuals, others find persistence of group differences. For other markers, which show no pretreatment association with anxiety, the markers nevertheless distinguish treatment-responders from non-responders. Heightened error related negativity represents the risk marker discussed in the most depth; however, limitations in measures related to error responding necessitate multimodal and big-data approaches. Single risk markers show limits as correlates of treatment response. Large-scale, multimodal data analyzed with predictive models may illuminate additional risk markers related to anxiety disorder treatment outcomes. Such work may identify novel targets and eventually guide improvements in treatment response/outcomes.

Computational approaches to treatment response prediction in major depression using brain activity and behavioral data: A systematic review

Major depressive disorder is a heterogeneous diagnostic category with multiple available treatments. With the goal of optimizing treatment selection, researchers are developing computational models that attempt to predict treatment response based on various pretreatment measures. In this paper, we review studies that use brain activity data to predict treatment response. Our aim is to highlight and clarify important methodological differences between various studies that relate to the incorporation of domain knowledge, specifically within two approaches delineated as data-driven and theory-driven. We argue that theory-driven generative modeling, which explicitly models information processing in the brain and thus can capture disease mechanisms, is a promising emerging approach that is only beginning to be utilized in treatment response prediction. The predictors extracted via such models could improve interpretability, which is critical for clinical decision-making. We also identify several methodological limitations across the reviewed studies and provide suggestions for addressing them. Namely, we consider problems with dichotomizing treatment outcomes, the importance of investigating more than one treatment in a given study for differential treatment response predictions, the need for a patient-centered approach for defining treatment outcomes, and finally, the use of internal and external validation methods for improving model generalizability.

The Proposition for Bipolar Depression Forecasting Based on Wearable Data Collection

Bipolar depression is treated wrongly as unipolar depression, on average, for 8 years. It is shown that this mismedication affects the occurrence of a manic episode and aggravates the overall condition of patients with bipolar depression. Significant effort was invested in early detection of depression and forecasting of responses to certain therapeutic approaches using a combination of features extracted from standard and online testing, wearables monitoring, and machine learning. In the case of unipolar depression, this approach yielded evidence that this data-based computational psychiatry approach would be helpful in clinical practice. Following a similar pipeline, we examined the usefulness of this approach to foresee a manic episode in bipolar depression, so that clinicians and family of the patient can help patient navigate through the time of crisis. Our projects combined the results from self-reported daily questionnaires, the data obtained from smart watches, and the data from regular reports from standard psychiatric interviews to feed various machine learning models to predict a crisis in bipolar depression. Contrary to satisfactory predictions in unipolar depression, we found that bipolar depression, having more complex dynamics, requires personalized approach. A previous work on physiological complexity (complex variability) suggests that an inclusion of electrophysiological data, properly quantified, might lead to better solutions, as shown in other projects of our group concerning unipolar depression. Here, we make a comparison of previously performed research in a methodological sense, revisiting and additionally interpreting our own results showing that the methodological approach to mania forecasting may be modified to provide an accurate prediction in bipolar depression.

Advantages of Machine Learning in Forensic Psychiatric Research—Uncovering the Complexities of Aggressive Behavior in Schizophrenia

Linear statistical methods may not be suited to the understanding of psychiatric phenomena such as aggression due to their complexity and multifactorial origins. Here, the application of machine learning (ML) algorithms offers the possibility of analyzing a large number of influencing factors and their interactions. This study aimed to explore inpatient aggression in offender patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) using a suitable ML model on a dataset of 370 patients. With a balanced accuracy of 77.6% and an AUC of 0.87, support vector machines (SVM) outperformed all the other ML algorithms. Negative behavior toward other patients, the breaking of ward rules, the PANSS score at admission as well as poor impulse control and impulsivity emerged as the most predictive variables in distinguishing aggressive from non-aggressive patients. The present study serves as an example of the practical use of ML in forensic psychiatric research regarding the complex interplay between the factors contributing to aggressive behavior in SSD. Through its application, it could be shown that mental illness and the antisocial behavior associated with it outweighed other predictors. The fact that SSD is also highly associated with antisocial behavior emphasizes the importance of early detection and sufficient treatment.

The prefrontal cortex, pathological anxiety, and anxiety disorders

Anxiety is experienced in response to threats that are distal or uncertain, involving changes in one's subjective state, autonomic responses, and behavior. Defensive and physiologic responses to threats that involve the amygdala and brainstem are conserved across species. While anxiety responses typically serve an adaptive purpose, when excessive, unregulated, and generalized, they can become maladaptive, leading to distress and avoidance of potentially threatening situations. In primates, anxiety can be regulated by the prefrontal cortex (PFC), which has expanded in evolution. This prefrontal expansion is thought to underlie primates' increased capacity to engage high-level regulatory strategies aimed at coping with and modifying the experience of anxiety. The specialized primate lateral, medial, and orbital PFC sectors are connected with association and limbic cortices, the latter of which are connected with the amygdala and brainstem autonomic structures that underlie emotional and physiological arousal. PFC pathways that interface with distinct inhibitory systems within the cortex, the amygdala, or the thalamus can regulate responses by modulating neuronal output. Within the PFC, pathways connecting cortical regions are poised to reduce noise and enhance signals for cognitive operations that regulate anxiety processing and autonomic drive. Specialized PFC pathways to the inhibitory thalamic reticular nucleus suggest a mechanism to allow passage of relevant signals from thalamus to cortex, and in the amygdala to modulate the output to autonomic structures. Disruption of specific nodes within the PFC that interface with inhibitory systems can affect the negative bias, failure to regulate autonomic arousal, and avoidance that characterize anxiety disorders.

Psychedelic Therapy's Transdiagnostic Effects: A Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) Perspective

Accumulating clinical evidence shows that psychedelic therapy, by synergistically combining psychopharmacology and psychological support, offers a promising transdiagnostic treatment strategy for a range of disorders with restricted and/or maladaptive habitual patterns of emotion, cognition and behavior, notably, depression (MDD), treatment resistant depression (TRD) and addiction disorders, but perhaps also anxiety disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and eating disorders. Despite the emergent transdiagnostic evidence, the specific clinical dimensions that psychedelics are efficacious for, and associated underlying neurobiological pathways, remain to be well-characterized. To this end, this review focuses on pre-clinical and clinical evidence of the acute and sustained therapeutic potential of psychedelic therapy in the context of a transdiagnostic dimensional systems framework. Focusing on the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) as a template, we will describe the multimodal mechanisms underlying the transdiagnostic therapeutic effects of psychedelic therapy, traversing molecular, cellular and network levels. These levels will be mapped to the RDoC constructs of negative and positive valence systems, arousal regulation, social processing, cognitive and sensorimotor systems. In summarizing this literature and framing it transdiagnostically, we hope we can assist the field in moving toward a mechanistic understanding of how psychedelics work for patients and eventually toward a precise-personalized psychedelic therapy paradigm.

Suppressed activity of the rostral anterior cingulate cortex as a biomarker for depression remission

BACKGROUND

Suppression of the rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC) has shown promise as a prognostic biomarker for depression. We aimed to use machine learning to characterise its ability to predict depression remission.

METHODS

Data were obtained from 81 15- to 25-year-olds with a major depressive disorder who had participated in the YoDA-C trial, in which they had been randomised to receive cognitive behavioural therapy plus either fluoxetine or placebo. Prior to commencing treatment patients performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) task to assess rACC suppression. Support vector machines were trained on the fMRI data using nested cross-validation, and were similarly trained on clinical data. We further tested our fMRI model on data from the YoDA-A trial, in which participants had completed the same fMRI paradigm.

RESULTS

Thirty-six of 81 (44%) participants in the YoDA-C trial achieved remission. Our fMRI model was able to predict remission status (AUC = 0.777 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.638-0.916], balanced accuracy = 67%, negative predictive value = 74%, p < 0.0001). Clinical models failed to predict remission status at better than chance levels. Testing the model on the alternative YoDA-A dataset confirmed its ability to predict remission (AUC = 0.776, balanced accuracy = 64%, negative predictive value = 70%, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirm that rACC activity acts as a prognostic biomarker for depression. The machine learning model can identify patients who are likely to have difficult-to-treat depression, which might direct the earlier provision of enhanced support and more intensive therapies.

Machine learning in the prediction of depression treatment outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Multiple treatments are effective for major depressive disorder (MDD), but the outcomes of each treatment vary broadly among individuals. Accurate prediction of outcomes is needed to help select a treatment that is likely to work for a given person. We aim to examine the performance of machine learning methods in delivering replicable predictions of treatment outcomes.

METHODS

Of 7732 non-duplicate records identified through literature search, we retained 59 eligible reports and extracted data on sample, treatment, predictors, machine learning method, and treatment outcome prediction. A minimum sample size of 100 and an adequate validation method were used to identify adequate-quality studies. The effects of study features on prediction accuracy were tested with mixed-effects models. Fifty-four of the studies provided accuracy estimates or other estimates that allowed calculation of balanced accuracy of predicting outcomes of treatment.

RESULTS

Eight adequate-quality studies reported a mean accuracy of 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.71], which was significantly lower than a mean accuracy of 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78) in the other 46 studies. Among the adequate-quality studies, accuracies were higher when predicting treatment resistance (0.69) and lower when predicting remission (0.60) or response (0.56). The choice of machine learning method, feature selection, and the ratio of features to individuals were not associated with reported accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative relationship between study quality and prediction accuracy, combined with a lack of independent replication, invites caution when evaluating the potential of machine learning applications for personalizing the treatment of depression.

Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Postpartum Depression: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) offers vigorous statistical and probabilistic techniques that can successfully predict certain clinical conditions using large volumes of data. A review of ML and big data research analytics in maternal depression is pertinent and timely, given the rapid technological developments in recent years.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to synthesize the literature on ML and big data analytics for maternal mental health, particularly the prediction of postpartum depression (PPD).

METHODS

We used a scoping review methodology using the Arksey and O'Malley framework to rapidly map research activity in ML for predicting PPD. Two independent researchers searched PsycINFO, PubMed, IEEE Xplore, and the ACM Digital Library in September 2020 to identify relevant publications in the past 12 years. Data were extracted from the articles' ML model, data type, and study results.

RESULTS

A total of 14 studies were identified. All studies reported the use of supervised learning techniques to predict PPD. Support vector machine and random forest were the most commonly used algorithms in addition to Naive Bayes, regression, artificial neural network, decision trees, and XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting). There was considerable heterogeneity in the best-performing ML algorithm across the selected studies. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values reported for different algorithms were support vector machine (range 0.78-0.86), random forest method (0.88), XGBoost (0.80), and logistic regression (0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

ML algorithms can analyze larger data sets and perform more advanced computations, which can significantly improve the detection of PPD at an early stage. Further clinical research collaborations are required to fine-tune ML algorithms for prediction and treatment. ML might become part of evidence-based practice in addition to clinical knowledge and existing research evidence.

Machine Learning-Based Definition of Symptom Clusters and Selection of Antidepressants for Depressive Syndrome

The current polythetic and operational criteria for major depression inevitably contribute to the heterogeneity of depressive syndromes. The heterogeneity of depressive syndrome has been criticized using the concept of language game in Wittgensteinian philosophy. Moreover, "a symptom- or endophenotype-based approach, rather than a diagnosis-based approach, has been proposed" as the "next-generation treatment for mental disorders" by Thomas Insel. Understanding the heterogeneity renders promise for personalized medicine to treat cases of depressive syndrome, in terms of both defining symptom clusters and selecting antidepressants. Machine learning algorithms have emerged as a tool for personalized medicine by handling clinical big data that can be used as predictors for subtype classification and treatment outcome prediction. The large clinical cohort data from the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D), Combining Medications to Enhance Depression Outcome (CO-MED), and the German Research Network on Depression (GRND) have recently began to be acknowledged as useful sources for machine learning-based depression research with regard to cost effectiveness and generalizability. In addition, noninvasive biological tools such as functional and resting state magnetic resonance imaging techniques are widely combined with machine learning methods to detect intrinsic endophenotypes of depression. This review highlights recent studies that have used clinical cohort or brain imaging data and have addressed machine learning-based approaches to defining symptom clusters and selecting antidepressants. Potentially applicable suggestions to realize machine learning-based personalized medicine for depressive syndrome are also provided herein.

Predicting Future Service Use in Dutch Mental Healthcare: A Machine Learning Approach

A mental healthcare system in which the scarce resources are equitably and efficiently allocated, benefits from a predictive model about expected service use. The skewness in service use is a challenge for such models. In this study, we applied a machine learning approach to forecast expected service use, as a starting point for agreements between financiers and suppliers of mental healthcare. This study used administrative data from a large mental healthcare organization in the Netherlands. A training set was selected using records from 2017 (N = 10,911), and a test set was selected using records from 2018 (N = 10,201). A baseline model and three random forest models were created from different types of input data to predict (the remainder of) numeric individual treatment hours. A visual analysis was performed on the individual predictions. Patients consumed 62 h of mental healthcare on average in 2018. The model that best predicted service use had a mean error of 21 min at the insurance group level and an average absolute error of 28 h at the patient level. There was a systematic under prediction of service use for high service use patients. The application of machine learning techniques on mental healthcare data is useful for predicting expected service on group level. The results indicate that these models could support financiers and suppliers of healthcare in the planning and allocation of resources. Nevertheless, uncertainty in the prediction of high-cost patients remains a challenge.

Smartphones and the Neuroscience of Mental Health

Improvements in understanding the neurobiological basis of mental illness have unfortunately not translated into major advances in treatment. At this point, it is clear that psychiatric disorders are exceedingly complex and that, in order to account for and leverage this complexity, we need to collect longitudinal data sets from much larger and more diverse samples than is practical using traditional methods. We discuss how smartphone-based research methods have the potential to dramatically advance our understanding of the neuroscience of mental health. This, we expect, will take the form of complementing lab-based hard neuroscience research with dense sampling of cognitive tests, clinical questionnaires, passive data from smartphone sensors, and experience-sampling data as people go about their daily lives. Theory- and data-driven approaches can help make sense of these rich data sets, and the combination of computational tools and the big data that smartphones make possible has great potential value for researchers wishing to understand how aspects of brain function give rise to, or emerge from, states of mental health and illness.

Challenges of Building, Deploying, and Using AI-Enabled Telepsychiatry Platforms for Clinical Practice Among Urban Indians: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

Published literature shows the overall challenges associated with artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled medicine and telepsychiatry more from the western perspective, with no specific mention from the perspective of individual stakeholders or Indians. This study was conceptualized to understand the perceived challenges of building, deploying, and using AI-enabled telepsychiatry for clinical practice from the perspectives of psychiatrist, patients, and the technology experts (who build such services) in urban India.

METHODS

Between February 2020 and April 2020, a semistructured topic guide was drafted for qualitative exploratory study among psychiatrists (n = 14), their patients (n = 14), technology experts (n = 13), and Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) (n = 5) of health technology incubation centers. Interviews were conducted over the phone, recorded, and analyzed using the grounded theory approach.

RESULTS

Almost all respondents cited ethical, legal, accountability, and regulatory implications as challenges. The major issues stated by patients were privacy/confidentiality, ethical violations, security/ hacking, and data ownership. Psychiatrists cited lack of clinical validation, lack of established studies or trials, iatrogenic risk, and healthcare infrastructure issues as the main challenges. Technology experts stated data-related issues as the major challenge. The CEOs quoted the lack of interdisciplinary experts as one of the main challenges in building deployable AI-enabled telepsychiatry in India.

CONCLUSIONS

There are challenges to deploy an AI-enabled telepsychiatry platform in India. There is a need to constitute an interdisciplinary team to systematically address these challenges. Deployment of AI-enabled telepsychiatry is not possible without clinical validation and addressing current challenges.

Feasibility of Repeated Assessment of Cognitive Function in Older Adults Using a Wireless, Mobile, Dry-EEG Headset and Tablet-Based Games

Access to affordable, objective and scalable biomarkers of brain function is needed to transform the healthcare burden of neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative disease. Electroencephalography (EEG) recordings, both resting and in combination with targeted cognitive tasks, have demonstrated utility in tracking disease state and therapy response in a range of conditions from schizophrenia to Alzheimer's disease. But conventional methods of recording this data involve burdensome clinic visits, and behavioural tasks that are not effective in frequent repeated use. This paper aims to evaluate the technical and human-factors feasibility of gathering large-scale EEG using novel technology in the home environment with healthy adult users. In a large field study, 89 healthy adults aged 40-79 years volunteered to use the system at home for 12 weeks, 5 times/week, for 30 min/session. A 16-channel, dry-sensor, portable wireless headset recorded EEG while users played gamified cognitive and passive tasks through a tablet application, including tests of decision making, executive function and memory. Data was uploaded to cloud servers and remotely monitored via web-based dashboards. Seventy-eight participants completed the study, and high levels of adherence were maintained throughout across all age groups, with mean compliance over the 12-week period of 82% (4.1 sessions per week). Reported ease of use was also high with mean System Usability Scale scores of 78.7. Behavioural response measures (reaction time and accuracy) and EEG components elicited by gamified stimuli (P300, ERN, Pe and changes in power spectral density) were extracted from the data collected in home, across a wide range of ages, including older adult participants. Findings replicated well-known patterns of age-related change and demonstrated the feasibility of using low-burden, large-scale, longitudinal EEG measurement in community-based cohorts. This technology enables clinically relevant data to be recorded outside the lab/clinic, from which metrics underlying cognitive ageing could be extracted, opening the door to potential new ways of developing digital cognitive biomarkers for disorders affecting the brain.

TAPAS: An Open-Source Software Package for Translational Neuromodeling and Computational Psychiatry

Psychiatry faces fundamental challenges with regard to mechanistically guided differential diagnosis, as well as prediction of clinical trajectories and treatment response of individual patients. This has motivated the genesis of two closely intertwined fields: (i) Translational Neuromodeling (TN), which develops "computational assays" for inferring patient-specific disease processes from neuroimaging, electrophysiological, and behavioral data; and (ii) Computational Psychiatry (CP), with the goal of incorporating computational assays into clinical decision making in everyday practice. In order to serve as objective and reliable tools for clinical routine, computational assays require end-to-end pipelines from raw data (input) to clinically useful information (output). While these are yet to be established in clinical practice, individual components of this general end-to-end pipeline are being developed and made openly available for community use. In this paper, we present the Translational Algorithms for Psychiatry-Advancing Science (TAPAS) software package, an open-source collection of building blocks for computational assays in psychiatry. Collectively, the tools in TAPAS presently cover several important aspects of the desired end-to-end pipeline, including: (i) tailored experimental designs and optimization of measurement strategy prior to data acquisition, (ii) quality control during data acquisition, and (iii) artifact correction, statistical inference, and clinical application after data acquisition. Here, we review the different tools within TAPAS and illustrate how these may help provide a deeper understanding of neural and cognitive mechanisms of disease, with the ultimate goal of establishing automatized pipelines for predictions about individual patients. We hope that the openly available tools in TAPAS will contribute to the further development of TN/CP and facilitate the translation of advances in computational neuroscience into clinically relevant computational assays.

For whom should psychotherapy focus on problem coping? A machine learning algorithm for treatment personalization

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop and test an algorithm for individual patient predictions of problem coping experiences (PCE) (i.e., patients' understanding and ability to deal with their problems) effects in cognitive-behavioral therapy. Method: In an outpatient sample with a variety of diagnoses (n=1010), we conducted Dynamic Structural Equation Modelling to estimate within-patient cross-lagged PCE effects on outcome during the first ten sessions. In a randomly selected training sample (2/3 of the cases), we tried different machine learning algorithms (i.e., ridge regression, LASSO, elastic net, and random forest) to predict PCE effects (i.e., the degree to which PCE was a time-lagged predictor of symptoms), using baseline demographic, diagnostic, and clinically-relevant patient features. Then, we validated the best algorithm on a test sample (1/3 of the cases).

RESULTS

The random forest algorithm performed best, explaining 14.7% of PCE effects variance in the training set. The results remained stable in the test set, explaining 15.4% of PCE effects variance.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show the suitability to perform individual predictions of process effects, based on patients' initial information. If the results are replicated, the algorithm might have the potential to be implemented in clinical practice by integrating it into monitoring and therapist feedback systems.

A personalized index to inform selection of a trauma-focused or non-trauma-focused treatment for PTSD

PTSD treatment guidelines recommend several treatments with extensive empirical support, including Prolonged Exposure (PE), a trauma-focused treatment and Present-Centered Therapy (PCT), a non-trauma-focused therapy. Research to inform treatment selection has yielded inconsistent findings with single prognostic variables that are difficult to integrate into clinical decision-making. We examined whether a combination of prognostic factors can predict different benefits in a trauma-focused vs. a non-trauma-focused psychotherapy. We applied a multi-method variable selection procedure and developed a prognostic index (PI) with a sample of 267 female veterans and active-duty service members (mean age 45; SD = 9.37; 53% White) with current PTSD who began treatment in a randomized clinical trial comparing PE and PCT. We conducted linear regressions predicting outcomes (Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale score) with treatment condition, the PI, and the interaction between the PI and treatment condition. The interaction between treatment type and PI moderated treatment response, moderated post-treatment symptom severity, b = 0.30, SE_b = 0.15 [95% CI: 0.01, 0.60], p = .049. For the 64% of participants with the best prognoses, PE resulted in better post-treatment outcomes; for the remainder, there was no difference. Use of a PI may lead to optimized patient outcomes and greater confidence when selecting trauma-focused treatments.

Measuring and Quantifying Collateral Information in Psychiatry: Development and Preliminary Validation of the McLean Collateral Information and Clinical Actionability Scale

BACKGROUND

The review of collateral information is an essential component of patient care. Although this is standard practice, minimal research has been done to quantify collateral information collection and to understand how collateral information translates to clinical decision making. To address this, we developed and piloted a novel measure (the McLean Collateral Information and Clinical Actionability Scale [M-CICAS]) to evaluate the types and number of collateral sources viewed and the resulting actions made in a psychiatric setting.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to test the feasibility of the M-CICAS, validate this measure against clinician notes via medical records, and evaluate whether reviewing a higher volume of collateral sources is associated with more clinical actions taken.

METHODS

For the M-CICAS, we developed a three-part instrument, focusing on measuring collateral sources reviewed, clinical actions taken, and shared decision making between the clinician and patient. To determine feasibility and preliminary validity, we piloted this measure among clinicians providing psychotherapy at McLean Hospital. These clinicians (n=7) completed the M-CICAS after individual clinical sessions with 89 distinct patient encounters. Scales were completed by clinicians only once for each patient during routine follow-up visits. After clinicians completed these scales, researchers conducted chart reviews by completing the M-CICAS using only the clinician's corresponding note from that session. For the analyses, we generated summary scores for the number of collateral sources and clinical actions for each encounter. We examined Pearson correlation coefficients to assess interrater reliability between clinicians and chart reviewers, and simple univariate regression modeling followed by multilevel mixed effects regression modeling to test the relationship between collateral information accessed and clinical actions taken.

RESULTS

The study staff had high interrater reliability on the M-CICAS for the sources reviewed (r=0.98; P<.001) and actions taken (r=0.97; P<.001). Clinician and study staff ratings were moderately correlated and statistically significant on the M-CICAS summary scores for the sources viewed (r=0.24, P=.02 and r=0.25, P=.02, respectively). Univariate regression modeling with a two-tailed test demonstrated a significant association between collateral sources and clinical actions taken when clinicians completed the M-CICAS (β=.27; t₈₇=2.47; P=.02). The multilevel fixed slopes random intercepts model confirmed a significant association even when accounting for clinician differences (β=.23; t₅₇=2.13; P=.04).

CONCLUSIONS

This pilot study established the feasibility and preliminary validity of the M-CICAS in assessing collateral sources and clinical decision making in psychiatry. This study also indicated that reviewing more collateral sources may lead to an increased number of clinical actions following a session.

Escape and absconding among offenders with schizophrenia spectrum disorder - an explorative analysis of characteristics

BACKGROUND

Escape and absconding, especially in forensic settings, can have serious consequences for patients, staff and institutions. Several characteristics of affected patients could be identified so far, albeit based on heterogeneous patient populations, a limited number of possible factors and basal statistical analyses. The aim of this study was to determine the most important characteristics among a large number of possible variables and to describe the best statistical model using machine learning in a homogeneous group of offender patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorder.

METHODS

A database of 370 offender patients suffering from schizophrenia spectrum disorder and 507 possible predictor variables was explored by machine learning. To counteract overfitting, the database was divided into training and validation set and a nested validation procedure was used on the training set. The best model was tested on the validation set and the most important variables were extracted.

RESULTS

The final model resulted in a balanced accuracy of 71.1% (95% CI = [58.5, 83.1]) and an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI = [0.63, 0.87]). The variables identified as relevant and related to absconding/ escape listed from most important to least important were: more frequent forbidden intake of drugs during current hospitalization, more index offences, higher neuroleptic medication, more frequent rule breaking behavior during current hospitalization, higher PANSS Score at discharge, lower age at admission, more frequent dissocial behavior during current hospitalization, shorter time spent in current hospitalization and higher PANSS Score at admission.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time a detailed statistical model could be built for this topic. The results indicate the presence of a particularly problematic subgroup within the group of offenders with schizophrenic spectrum disorder who also tend to escape or abscond. Early identification and tailored treatment of these patients could be of clinical benefit.

How machine-learning recommendations influence clinician treatment selections: the example of the antidepressant selection

Decision support systems embodying machine learning models offer the promise of an improved standard of care for major depressive disorder, but little is known about how clinicians' treatment decisions will be influenced by machine learning recommendations and explanations. We used a within-subject factorial experiment to present 220 clinicians with patient vignettes, each with or without a machine-learning (ML) recommendation and one of the multiple forms of explanation. We found that interacting with ML recommendations did not significantly improve clinicians' treatment selection accuracy, assessed as concordance with expert psychopharmacologist consensus, compared to baseline scenarios in which clinicians made treatment decisions independently. Interacting with incorrect recommendations paired with explanations that included limited but easily interpretable information did lead to a significant reduction in treatment selection accuracy compared to baseline questions. These results suggest that incorrect ML recommendations may adversely impact clinician treatment selections and that explanations are insufficient for addressing overreliance on imperfect ML algorithms. More generally, our findings challenge the common assumption that clinicians interacting with ML tools will perform better than either clinicians or ML algorithms individually.

Classification of Depression Through Resting-State Electroencephalogram as a Novel Practice in Psychiatry: Review

Background

Machine learning applications in health care have increased considerably in the recent past, and this review focuses on an important application in psychiatry related to the detection of depression. Since the advent of computational psychiatry, research based on functional magnetic resonance imaging has yielded remarkable results, but these tools tend to be too expensive for everyday clinical use.

Objective

This review focuses on an affordable data-driven approach based on electroencephalographic recordings. Web-based applications via public or private cloud-based platforms would be a logical next step. We aim to compare several different approaches to the detection of depression from electroencephalographic recordings using various features and machine learning models.

Methods

To detect depression, we reviewed published detection studies based on resting-state electroencephalogram with final machine learning, and to predict therapy outcomes, we reviewed a set of interventional studies using some form of stimulation in their methodology.

Results

We reviewed 14 detection studies and 12 interventional studies published between 2008 and 2019. As direct comparison was not possible due to the large diversity of theoretical approaches and methods used, we compared them based on the steps in analysis and accuracies yielded. In addition, we compared possible drawbacks in terms of sample size, feature extraction, feature selection, classification, internal and external validation, and possible unwarranted optimism and reproducibility. In addition, we suggested desirable practices to avoid misinterpretation of results and optimism.

Conclusions

This review shows the need for larger data sets and more systematic procedures to improve the use of the solution for clinical diagnostics. Therefore, regulation of the pipeline and standard requirements for methodology used should become mandatory to increase the reliability and accuracy of the complete methodology for it to be translated to modern psychiatry.

Data mining algorithm predicts a range of adverse outcomes in major depression

BACKGROUND

Course of illness in major depression (MD) is highly varied, which might lead to both under- and overtreatment if clinicians adhere to a 'one-size-fits-all' approach. Novel opportunities in data mining could lead to prediction models that can assist clinicians in treatment decisions tailored to the individual patient. This study assesses the performance of a previously developed data mining algorithm to predict future episodes of MD based on clinical information in new data.

METHODS

We applied a prediction model utilizing baseline clinical characteristics in subjects who reported lifetime MD to two independent test samples (total n = 4226). We assessed the model's performance to predict future episodes of MD, anxiety disorders, and disability during follow-up (1-9 years after baseline). In addition, we compared its prediction performance with well-known risk factors for a severe course of illness.

RESULTS

Our model consistently predicted future episodes of MD in both test samples (AUC 0.68-0.73, modest prediction). Equally accurately, it predicted episodes of generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder and disability (AUC 0.65-0.78). Our model predicted these outcomes more accurately than risk factors for a severe course of illness such as family history of MD and lifetime traumas.

LIMITATIONS

Prediction accuracy might be different for specific subgroups, such as hospitalized patients or patients with a different cultural background.

CONCLUSIONS

Our prediction model consistently predicted a range of adverse outcomes in MD across two independent test samples derived from studies in different subpopulations, countries, using different measurement procedures. This replication study holds promise for application in clinical practice.

Evaluating the resource allocation index as a potential fMRI-based biomarker for substance use disorder

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of neuroscience-based biomarkers for the diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of individuals with substance use disorders (SUD). The resource allocation index (RAI), a measure of the interrelationship between salience, executive control and default-mode brain networks (SN, ECN, and DMN), has been proposed as one such biomarker. However, the RAI has yet to be extensively tested in SUD samples.

METHODS

The present analysis compared RAI scores between individuals with stimulant and/or opioid use disorders (SUD; n = 139, abstinent 4-365 days) and healthy controls (HC; n = 56) who had completed resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans within the context of the Tulsa 1000 cohort. First, we used independent component analysis (ICA) to identify the SN, ECN, and DMN and extract their time series data. Second, we used multiple permutations of automatically identified networks to compute RAI as reported in the fMRI literature.

RESULTS

First, the RAI as a metric depended substantially on the approach that was used to define the network components. Second, regardless of the selection of networks, after controlling for multiple testing there was no difference in RAI scores between SUD and HC. Third, the RAI was not associated with any substance use-related self-report measures.

CONCLUSION

Taken together, these findings do not provide evidence that RAI can be used as an fMRI-derived biomarker for the severity or diagnosis of individuals with SUD.

A scoping review of machine learning in psychotherapy research

Machine learning (ML) offers robust statistical and probabilistic techniques that can help to make sense of large amounts of data. This scoping review paper aims to broadly explore the nature of research activity using ML in the context of psychological talk therapies, highlighting the scope of current methods and considerations for clinical practice and directions for future research. Using a systematic search methodology, fifty-one studies were identified. A narrative synthesis indicates two types of studies, those who developed and tested an ML model (k=44), and those who reported on the feasibility of a particular treatment tool that uses an ML algorithm (k=7). Most model development studies used supervised learning techniques to classify or predict labeled treatment process or outcome data, whereas others used unsupervised techniques to identify clusters in the unlabeled patient or treatment data. Overall, the current applications of ML in psychotherapy research demonstrated a range of possible benefits for indications of treatment process, adherence, therapist skills and treatment response prediction, as well as ways to accelerate research through automated behavioral or linguistic process coding. Given the novelty and potential of this research field, these proof-of-concept studies are encouraging, however, do not necessarily translate to improved clinical practice (yet).

Toward Robust Anxiety Biomarkers: A Machine Learning Approach in a Large-Scale Sample

BACKGROUND

The field of psychiatry has long sought biomarkers that can objectively diagnose patients, predict treatment response, or identify individuals at risk of illness onset. However, reliable psychiatric biomarkers have yet to emerge. The recent application of machine learning techniques to develop neuroimaging-based biomarkers has yielded promising preliminary results. However, much of the work in this domain has not met best practice standards from the field of machine learning. This is especially true for studies of anxiety, creating uncertainty about the potential for anxiety biomarker development.

METHODS

We applied machine learning tools to predict trait anxiety from neuroimaging measurements in humans. Using publicly available data from the Brain Genomics Superstruct Project, we compared a suite of neuroimaging-based machine learning models predicting anxiety within a discovery sample (n = 531, 307 women) via k-fold cross-validation, and we tested the final model (a stacked model incorporating region-to-region functional connectivity, amygdala seed-to-voxel connectivity, and volumetric and cortical thickness data) in a held-out, unseen test sample (n = 348, 209 women).

RESULTS

Though the best model was able to predict anxiety within the discovery sample (cross-validated R2 of .06, permutation test p < .001), the generalization test within the holdout sample failed (R2 of -.04, permutation test p > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we did not find evidence of a generalizable anxiety biomarker. However, we encourage other researchers to investigate this topic, utilizing large samples and proper methodology, to clarify the potential of neuroimaging-based anxiety biomarkers.

Nonlinear analysis of EEG complexity in episode and remission phase of recurrent depression

OBJECTIVES

Biomarkers of major depressive disorder (MDD), its phases and forms have long been sought. Objectives were to examine whether the complexity of EEG activity, measured by Higuchi's fractal dimension (HFD) and sample entropy (SampEn), differs between healthy subjects, patients in remission, and in episode phase of the recurrent depression and whether the changes are differentially distributed between hemispheres and cortical regions.

METHODS

Resting state EEG with eyes closed was recorded from 22 patients suffering from recurrent depression (11 in remission, 11 in the episode), and 20 age and sex-matched healthy control subjects. Artifact-free EEG epochs were analyzed by in-house developed programs running HFD and SampEn algorithms.

RESULTS

Depressed patients had higher HFD and SampEn complexity compared to healthy subjects. The complexity was higher in patients who were in remission than in those in the acute episode. Altered complexity was present in the frontal and centro-parietal regions when compared to control group. The complexity in frontal and parietal regions differed between the two phases of depressive disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

Complexity measures of EEG distinguish between the healthy controls, patients in remission and episode. Further studies are needed to establish whether these measures carry a potential to aid clinically relevant decisions about depression.

The Predictive Validity of Machine Learning Models in the Classification and Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder: State of the Art and Future Directions

Major depressive disorder imposes a substantial disease burden worldwide, ranking as the third leading contributor to global disability. In spite of its ubiquity, classifying and treating depression has proven troublesome. One argument put forward to explain this predicament is the heterogeneity of patients diagnosed with the disorder. Recently, many areas of daily life have witnessed the surge of machine learning techniques, computational approaches to elucidate complex patterns in large datasets, which can be employed to make predictions and detect relevant clusters. Due to the multidimensionality at play in the pathogenesis of depression, it is suggested that machine learning could contribute to improving classification and treatment. In this paper, we investigated literature focusing on the use of machine learning models on datasets with clinical variables of patients diagnosed with depression to predict treatment outcomes or find more homogeneous subgroups. Identified studies based on best practices in the field are evaluated. We found 16 studies predicting outcomes (such as remission) and identifying clusters in patients with depression. The identified studies are mostly still in proof-of-concept phase, with small datasets, lack of external validation, and providing single performance metrics. Larger datasets, and models with similar variables present across these datasets, are needed to develop accurate and generalizable models. We hypothesize that harnessing natural language processing to obtain data 'hidden' in clinical texts might prove useful in improving prediction models. Besides, researchers will need to focus on the conditions to feasibly implement these models to support psychiatrists and patients in their decision-making in practice. Only then we can enter the realm of precision psychiatry.

Using machine learning to predict mental healthcare consumption in non-affective psychosis

OBJECTIVE

The main goal of the study was to predict individual patients' future mental healthcare consumption, and thereby enhancing the design of an efficient demand-oriented mental healthcare system by focusing on a patient population associated with intensive mental healthcare consumption. Factors that affect the mental healthcare consumption of service users with non-affective psychosis were identified, and subsequently used in a prognostic model to predict future healthcare consumption.

METHOD

This study was a secondary analysis of an existing dataset from the GROUP study. Based on mental healthcare consumption, patients with non-affective psychosis were divided into two groups: low (N = 579) and high (N = 488) intensive mental healthcare consumers. Three different techniques from the field of machine learning were applied on crosssectional data to identify risk factors: logistic regression, classification tree and a random forest. Subsequently, the same techniques were applied longitudinally in order to predict future healthcare consumption.

RESULTS

Identified variables that affected healthcare consumption were the number of psychotic episodes, paid employment, engagement in social activities, previous healthcare consumption, and met needs. Analyses showed that the random forest method is best suited to model risk factors, and that these relations predict future healthcare consumption (AUC 0.71, PPV 0.65).

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning techniques provide valuable information for identifying risk factors in psychosis. They may thus help clinicians optimize allocation of mental healthcare resources by predicting future healthcare consumption.

Using the Personalized Advantage Index for Individual Treatment Allocation to Blended Treatment or Treatment as Usual for Depression in Secondary Care

A variety of effective psychotherapies for depression are available, but patients who suffer from depression vary in their treatment response. Combining face-to-face therapies with internet-based elements in the sense of blended treatment is a new approach to treatment for depression. The goal of this study was to answer the following research questions: (1) What are the most important predictors determining optimal treatment allocation to treatment as usual or blended treatment? and (2) Would model-determined treatment allocation using this predictive information and the personalized advantage index (PAI)-approach result in better treatment outcomes? Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was applied to the data of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing the efficacy of treatment as usual and blended treatment in depressive outpatients. Pre-treatment symptomatology and treatment expectancy predicted outcomes irrespective of treatment condition, whereas different prescriptive predictors were found. A PAI of 2.33 PHQ-9 points was found, meaning that patients who would have received the treatment that is optimal for them would have had a post-treatment PHQ-9 score that is two points lower than if they had received the treatment that is suboptimal for them. For 29% of the sample, the PAI was five or greater, which means that a substantial difference between the two treatments was predicted. The use of the PAI approach for clinical practice must be further confirmed in prospective research; the current study supports the identification of specific interventions favorable for specific patients.

EEG spectral power, but not theta/beta ratio, is a neuromarker for adult ADHD

Adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have been described as having altered resting-state electroencephalographic (EEG) spectral power and theta/beta ratio (TBR). However, a recent review (Pulini et al. 2018) identified methodological errors in neuroimaging, including EEG, ADHD classification studies. Therefore, the specific EEG neuromarkers of adult ADHD remain to be identified, as do the EEG characteristics that mediate between genes and behaviour (mediational endophenotypes). Resting-state eyes-open and eyes-closed EEG was measured from 38 adults with ADHD, 45 first-degree relatives of people with ADHD and 51 unrelated controls. A machine learning classification analysis using penalized logistic regression (Elastic Net) examined if EEG spectral power (1-45 Hz) and TBR could classify participants into ADHD, first-degree relatives and/or control groups. Random-label permutation was used to quantify any bias in the analysis. Eyes-open absolute and relative EEG power distinguished ADHD from control participants (area under receiver operating characteristic = 0.71-0.77). The best predictors of ADHD status were increased power in delta, theta and low-alpha over centro-parietal regions, and in frontal low-beta and parietal mid-beta. TBR did not successfully classify ADHD status. Elevated eyes-open power in delta, theta, low-alpha and low-beta distinguished first-degree relatives from controls (area under receiver operating characteristic = 0.68-0.72), suggesting that these features may be a mediational endophenotype for adult ADHD. Resting-state EEG spectral power may be a neuromarker and mediational endophenotype of adult ADHD. These results did not support TBR as a diagnostic neuromarker for ADHD. It is possible that TBR is a characteristic of childhood ADHD.

Identifying Direct Coercion in a High Risk Subgroup of Offender Patients With Schizophrenia via Machine Learning Algorithms

PURPOSE

This study aims to explore risk factors for direct coercive measures (seclusion, restraint, involuntary medication) in a high risk subpopulation of offender patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

METHODS

Five hundred sixty nine potential predictor variables were explored in terms of their predictive power for coercion/no coercion in a set of 131 (36.6%) offender patients who experienced coercion and 227 who did not, using machine learning analysis. The dataset was split (70/30%) applying variable filtering, machine learning model building, and selection embedded in nested resampling approach in one subset. The best model was then selected, and the most important variables extracted on the second data subset.

RESULTS

In the final model the following variables identified coercion with a balanced accuracy of 73.28% and a predictive power (area under the curve, AUC) of 0.8468: threat of violence, (actual) violence toward others, the application of direct coercive measures during past psychiatric inpatient treatments, the positive and negative syndrome scales (PANSS) poor impulse control, uncooperativeness, and hostility and the total PANSS-score at admission, prescription of haloperidol during inpatient treatment, the daily cumulative olanzapine equivalent antipsychotic dosage at discharge, and the legal prognosis estimated by a team of licensed forensic psychiatrists.

CONCLUSIONS

Results confirm prior findings, add detail on factors indicative for the use of direct coercion, and provide clarification on inconsistencies. Limitations, clinical relevance, and avenues for future research are discussed.

Machine Learning Analysis of Electronic Nose in a Transdiagnostic Community Sample With a Streamlined Data Collection Approach: No Links Between Volatile Organic Compounds and Psychiatric Symptoms

Non-intrusive, easy-to-use and pragmatic collection of biological processes is warranted to evaluate potential biomarkers of psychiatric symptoms. Prior work with relatively modest sample sizes suggests that under highly-controlled sampling conditions, volatile organic compounds extracted from the human breath (exhalome), often measured by an electronic nose ("e-nose"), may be related to physical and mental health. The present study utilized a streamlined data collection approach and attempted to replicate and extend prior e-nose links to mental health in a standard research setting within large transdiagnostic community dataset (N = 1207; 746 females; 18-61 years) who completed a screening visit at the Laureate Institute for Brain Research between 07/2016 and 05/2018. Factor analysis was used to obtain latent exhalome variables, and machine learning approaches were employed using these latent variables to predict three types of symptoms independent of each other (depression, anxiety, and substance use disorder) within separate training and a test sets. After adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, and smoking status, the best fitting algorithm produced by the training set accounted for nearly 0% of the test set's variance. In each case the standard error included the zero line, indicating that models were not predictive of clinical symptoms. Although some sample variance was predicted, findings did not generalize to out-of-sample data. Based on these findings, we conclude that the exhalome, as measured by the e-nose within a less-controlled environment than previously reported, is not able to provide clinically useful assessments of current depression, anxiety or substance use severity.

Comparison of the Association Between Goal-Directed Planning and Self-reported Compulsivity vs Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder Diagnosis

IMPORTANCE

Dimensional definitions of transdiagnostic mental health problems have been suggested as an alternative to categorical diagnoses, having the advantage of capturing heterogeneity within diagnostic categories and similarity across them and bridging more naturally psychological and neural substrates.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether a self-reported compulsivity dimension has a stronger association with goal-directed and related higher-order cognitive deficits compared with a diagnosis of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study, patients with OCD and/or generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) from across the United States completed a telephone-based diagnostic interview by a trained rater, internet-based cognitive testing, and self-reported clinical assessments from October 8, 2015, to October 1, 2017. Follow-up data were collected to test for replicability.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Performance was measured on a test of goal-directed planning and cognitive flexibility (Wisconsin Card Sorting Test [WCST]) and a test of abstract reasoning. Clinical variables included DSM-5 diagnosis of OCD and GAD and 3 psychiatric symptom dimensions (general distress, compulsivity, and obsessionality) derived from a factor analysis.

RESULTS

Of 285 individuals in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 32 [12] years; age range, 18-77 years; 219 [76.8%] female), 111 had OCD; 82, GAD; and 92, OCD and GAD. A diagnosis of OCD was not associated with goal-directed performance compared with GAD at baseline (β [SE], -0.02 [0.02]; P = .18). In contrast, a compulsivity dimension was negatively associated with goal-directed performance (β [SE], -0.05 [0.02]; P = .003). Results for abstract reasoning task and WCST mirrored this pattern; the compulsivity dimension was associated with abstract reasoning (β [SE], 2.99 [0.63]; P < .001) and several indicators of WCST performance (eg, categories completed: β [SE], -0.57 [0.09]; P < .001), whereas OCD diagnosis was not (abstract reasoning: β [SE], 0.39 [0.66]; P = .56; categories completed: β [SE], -0.09 [0.10]; P = .38). Other symptom dimensions relevant to OCD, obsessionality, and general distress had no reliable association with goal-directed performance, WCST, or abstract reasoning. Obsessionality had a positive association with requiring more trials to reach the first category on the WCST at baseline (β [SE], 2.92 [1.39]; P = .04), and general distress was associated with impaired goal-directed performance at baseline (β [SE],-0.04 [0.02]; P = .01). However, unlike the key results of this study, neither survived correction for multiple comparisons or was replicated at follow-up testing.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Deficits in goal-directed planning in OCD may be more strongly associated with a compulsivity dimension than with OCD diagnosis. This result may have implications for research assessing the association between brain mechanisms and clinical manifestations and for understanding the structure of mental illness.

Functional EEG connectivity is a neuromarker for adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms

OBJECTIVE

Altered brain functional connectivity has been shown in youth with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, relatively little is known about functional connectivity in adult ADHD, and how it is linked with the heritability of ADHD.

METHODS

We measured eyes-open and eyes-closed resting electroencephalography (EEG) from 38 adults with ADHD, 45 1st degree relatives of people with ADHD and 51 healthy controls. Functional connectivity among all scalp channels was calculated using a weighted phase lag index for delta, theta, alpha, beta and gamma frequency bands. A machine learning analysis using penalized linear regression was used to identify if connectivity features (10,080 connectivity pairs) could predict ADHD symptoms. Furthermore, we examined if EEG connectivity could accurately classify participants into ADHD, 1st degree relatives and/or control groups.

RESULTS

Hyperactive symptoms were best predicted by eyes-open EEG connectivity in delta, beta and gamma bands. Inattentive symptoms were predicted by eyes-open EEG connectivity in delta, alpha and gamma bands, and eyes-closed EEG connectivity in delta and gamma bands. EEG connectivity features did not reliably classify participants into groups.

CONCLUSIONS

EEG connectivity may represent a neuromarker for ADHD symptoms.

SIGNIFICANCE

EEG connectivity may help elucidate the neural basis of adult ADHD symptoms.