What is unrealistic optimism?

Examining influences of personal factors on the first- and third-person evaluations of public health issues among young adults

Both health and the environment are critical public health issues that have a considerable impact on young adults. However, they have different characteristics that influence how messaging is received. In our study, we examine the influence of three personal factors (issue involvement, behavioral change intention, and product use) on young adults' perception of messages for these two public health issues from both first- and third-person perspectives. We found various patterns when comparing the two public health issues, first-person and third-person measures, and the perceived threat and likelihood of contributing to the issues. We also discuss practical implications and suggestions based on our findings.

Coping strategies and its relationship with sexual dysfunction in adults receiving haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis: A cross-sectional study

AIM

To explore relationship coping strategies and sexual dysfunction, and the predictive factors of sexual dysfunction in adults receiving haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis.

BACKGROUND

Sexual dysfunction is a common problem in adults receiving haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis. This problem may be related to psychological and physiological conditions. However, the association between psychological conditions such as coping strategies and sexual dysfunction is not clearly understood.

DESIGN

This study is a cross-sectional study.

METHODS

The data were collected from November 2021 to July 2022 using the General Information Form, Arizona Sexual Experiences Scale: Female and Male Versions, and the Ways of Coping Inventory. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were conducted to investigate the relationship between coping strategies and sexual dysfunction.

REPORTING METHOD

STROBE checklist.

RESULTS

A total of 110 adults, 67 on haemodialysis and 43 on peritoneal dialysis, who met the eligibility criteria were included in this study. The optimistic, helpless and submissive approach sub-dimensions of coping strategies had positive correlation with sexual dysfunction in adults receiving haemodialysis. Among the sub-dimensions of the ways of coping inventory, helpless approach was positive predictor and seeking social support was negative predictor of sexual dysfunction in adults receiving haemodialysis. The coping strategies were not predictors of sexual dysfunction for adults receiving peritoneal dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that helpless coping strategy increases sexual dysfunction, and seeking social support decreases sexual dysfunction in haemodialysis.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION AND/OR PATIENT CARE

According to this study, social support is effective coping strategy for reducing sexual dysfunction. Education and support for effective coping strategies should be provided to dialysis patients by healthcare professionals at the start of dialysis treatment. Effective coping strategies should be integrated into routine care standards and nursing or hospital policies.

PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

Adults receiving haemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis were involved in this study.

The causal effect of a health treatment on beliefs, stated preferences and memories

The paper estimates the causal effect of a health treatment on patients' beliefs, preferences and memories about the treatment. It exploits a natural experiment which occurred in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. UK residents could choose to opt into the vaccination program, but not which vaccine they received. The assignment to a vaccine offered little objective information for learning about its qualities, but triggered strong psychological demand for reassuring beliefs. We surveyed a sample of UK residents about their beliefs on the different COVID-19 vaccines before and after receiving their jab. Before vaccination, individuals exhibit similar prior beliefs and stated preferences about the different vaccines. After vaccination, however, they update their beliefs overly optimistically about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine they received, state that they would have chosen it if they could, and have distorted memories about their past beliefs. These results cannot be explained by conventional experience effects. At the aggregated level, they show that random assignment to a health treatment predicts a polarization of opinions about its quality. At the individual level, these findings provide evidence in line with the predictions of motivated beliefs and over-inference from weak signals in a real-world health setting.

Patients' Perspectives on Medication-Related Suicide Prevention Interventions Delivered in Emergency Settings

OBJECTIVE

Encouraging patients at risk for suicide to reduce access to potentially lethal medications and drugs is a key component of evidence-based suicide prevention. However, little research has been done to inform interventions for reducing intentional self-harm.

METHODS

Semistructured interviews were conducted with 28 U.S. veterans who sought emergency care from the Veterans Health Administration between 2021 and 2023 to explore veterans' perspectives on medication-related interventions, including opinions on intervention components (e.g., medication return envelopes). Matrix analysis was used to aggregate data into categories, which were predefined by using constructs from the health belief model (e.g., perceived benefits).

RESULTS

The participating veterans generally endorsed interventions as acceptable and were particularly supportive of distributing medication return envelopes. However, they often conceptualized these efforts as steps to prevent unintentional overdose or theft-not necessarily to prevent suicide-and rarely indicated that such interventions were appropriate for themselves. Across the interviews, participants identified important facilitators to care, such as ensuring that interventions were convenient and accounted for the perceived cost of disposing medications. Perspectives on engaging family or friends in interventions were mixed. The importance of the interventions was more readily acknowledged among participants with previous opioid use exposure-perspectives that appeared to stem from lived experiences.

CONCLUSIONS

This study contributes important foundational knowledge that can be used to inform research and clinical initiatives aimed at preventing medication- and drug-related suicides.

"The Secret" to Success? The Psychology of Belief in Manifestation

We explored the psychology of those who believe in manifestation: the ability to cosmically attract success in life through positive self-talk, visualization, and symbolic actions (e.g., acting as if something is true). In three studies (collective N = 1,023), we developed a reliable and valid measure-the Manifestation Scale-and found over one third of participants endorsed manifestation beliefs. Those who scored higher on the scale perceived themselves as more successful, had stronger aspirations for success, and believed they were more likely to achieve future success. They were also more likely to be drawn to risky investments, have experienced bankruptcy, and to believe they could achieve an unlikely level of success more quickly. We discuss the potential positives and negatives of this belief system in the context of growing public desire for success and an industry that capitalizes on these desires.

Diabetes and erectile dysfunction: The relationships with health literacy, treatment adherence, unrealistic optimism, and glycaemic control

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationships between health literacy, unrealistic optimism, and adherence to glycometabolic disease management related to erectile dysfunction (ED) in male patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) or preDM.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective observational study enroled 167 consecutive patients with T2D and ED. All patients underwent the following examinations: (a) medical history collection; (b) Body Mass Index (BMI) determination; (c) hormonal and biochemical assessment; (d) duration of T2D, complications and treatment; (e) International Index of Erectile Function-5 questionnaire to assess ED; and (f) validated questionnaire to evaluate health literacy, unrealistic optimism, and treatment adherence.

RESULTS

Overall, mean age was 62.5 ± 9.4 years (range: 20-75) and mean BMI was 28.4 ± 4.8 kg/m² (range: 18.4-46.6). The mean IIEF-5 score was 15.4 ± 5.2 (range: 5-25). The majority of patients showed high health literacy. However, low health literacy was found in patients with higher IIEF-5 scores and high BMI. Unrealistic optimism was low in most patients. Higher adherence to treatment was found in patients who reported regular physical activity, who followed a diet, and in patients with a family history of T2D. Regarding anti-diabetic treatment, patients treated with insulin showed higher health literacy than patients not treated with other medications, whereas higher adherence was found in patients using SGLT2-i.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlighted the close relationship between metabolic compensation, BMI, ED, and psychological attitudes, including health literacy and unrealistic optimism.

Patients' perceptions of the mechanisms underlying alcohol use problems after bariatric surgery: A qualitative systematic review

Alcohol-related problems increase after bariatric surgery. The objective of this review was to synthesize findings of qualitative studies on patients' perceptions of the mechanisms leading to problematic alcohol consumption after bariatric surgery. This review followed the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for systematic review of qualitative evidence. A comprehensive search strategy was performed in MEDLINE, PsycInfo, Scopus and Google Scholar. Study selection, data extraction and critical appraisal of included studies were undertaken by two independent reviewers. Confidence in review findings was assessed using the ConQual approach. Four studies were included in this review and led to the development of four synthesized results: (1) persistence or reappearance of psychological problems after bariatric surgery; (2) using alcohol as a coping strategy, sometimes as a replacement for food; (3) changes in the physiological response to alcohol; and (4) importance of increased information about alcohol-related risks and long-term counselling. Confidence in the synthesized results ranged from moderate to low. The results indicated postoperative problematic alcohol consumption is a complex issue, involving psychological and physiological mechanisms. Several recommendations are formulated based on the results obtained. More qualitative and quantitative studies are needed to better understand this phenomenon given the few existing qualitative studies on this topic and some divergent results found between qualitative and previous quantitative research.

Unrealistic Optimism Regarding Artificial Intelligence Opportunities in Human Resource Management

Artificial intelligence (AI) has many uses in domains like automotive and finance or business divisions like human resource management (HRM). This study presents a survey that was conducted among a German national sample (n = 79) of HRM personnel from small- and medium-sized enterprises regarding the expected impact of AI on their own and other companies. Indications for unrealistic optimism, i.e., assuming negative impacts are more likely for others than oneself, were identified. AI will play an increasingly important role, with cost reductions and efficiency gains serving as the highest motives and a lack of AI specialists representing the highest inhibitor. Participants assume that AI will reduce the number of employees in other companies, while it let the one in their own grow. They expect AI to take over more tasks in other companies and believe AI will more impact other companies' HRM, especially in administrative processing. Future research should include (repeated) investigations into other business divisions.

Saving Regret and Procrastination

In countries, where a substantial proportion of retirement income rests on savings, there is much concern that a sizeable fraction of the population reaches retirement with insufficient financial resources. We define saving regret as the wish in hindsight to have saved more earlier in life. We measured saving regret and possible determinants in a survey of U.S. households in which respondents were aged 60-79. We find high levels of saving regret, affirmed by some 58%. Saving regret exhibits significant and plausible correlations with personal characteristics and wealth: Married, older, healthier and wealthier respondents are less likely to report saving regret, suggesting the measure's validity. We find only weak evidence for correlations between saving regret and measures of procrastination: persons with traits associated with procrastination express saving regret about as often as those without those traits.

Self-enhancement and physical health: A meta-analysis

A prior meta-analysis yielded a positive relation between self-enhancement and psychological health. This article presents the first meta-analysis of the association between self-enhancement and physical health (k = 87; N = 22,415). The meta-analysis relied predominantly on social desirability as an operationalization of self-enhancement and secondarily on comparative judgement and narcissism. Further, the meta-analysis operationalized physical health in terms of self-rated health, symptoms and biomarkers. Overall, self-enhancement yielded a near-zero association with physical health, r = .01. However, this association was more pronounced for comparative judgement (r = .18, k = 6) than social desirability (r = .03, k = 41) or narcissism (r = -.0001, k = 8), and for self-rated health (r = .09, k = 9) than symptoms (r = .01, k = 29) or biomarkers (r = -.13, k = 17). The association between self-enhancement and physical health fluctuates across measures of both constructs calling for more focussed and nuanced investigations.

Coping with Coronavirus Pandemic: Risk Perception Predicts Life Optimism

Given that the coronavirus pandemic has become a severe concern worldwide, how can optimism be maintained during an outbreak of a collective pandemic? We propose that perceived control and negative affect could be potential explanatory factors for optimism in the face of a pandemic. In Study 1 (N = 599), through a large-scale cross-sectional design, we showed the indirect effect of risk perception on optimism through perceived control and negative affect with structural equation modeling. In Study 2 (N = 191), we manipulated perceived risk of the pandemic and determined that experiencing a high-risk pandemic psychologically led to decreased optimism. Finally, through Study 3 (N = 186) and Study 4 (N = 217), we revealed that the effect of risk perception on optimism can be extended to overall subjective well-being and confirmed the indirect effects via perceived control and negative affect. These findings indicate that risk perception can make a difference in one's life optimism during a high-risk pandemic. Moreover, perceived control and negative affect are notable intermediary variables. Measures that strengthen publicity and transparency regarding recovery rates should be taken to help reduce public perceptions of risk and promote an optimistic life attitude.

Evaluation of Early Ketamine Effects on Belief-Updating Biases in Patients With Treatment-Resistant Depression

IMPORTANCE

Clinical research has shown that persistent negative beliefs maintain depression and that subanesthetic ketamine infusions induce rapid antidepressant responses.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether ketamine alters belief updating and how such cognitive effects are associated with the clinical effects of ketamine.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This study used an observational case-control protocol with a mixed-effects design that nested 2 groups by 2 testing time points. Observers were not blinded. Patients with treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and healthy volunteer participants aged 34 to 68 years were included. Patients with TRD were diagnosed with major depressive disorder or bipolar depression, had a Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale score greater than 20, a Maudsley Staging Method score greater than 7, and failed to respond to at least 2 prior antidepressant trials. Exclusion criteria were any other psychiatric, neurological, or neurosurgical comorbidities, substance use or addictive disorders, and recreational ketamine consumption. Data were collected from January to February 2019 and from May to December 2019, and data were analyzed from January 2020 to July 2021.

EXPOSURES

Patients with TRD were observed 24 hours before single ketamine infusion, 4 hours after the infusion, and 4 hours after the third infusion, which was 1 week after the first infusion. Healthy control participants were observed twice 1 week apart without ketamine exposure.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale score and belief updating after belief updating when patients received good news and bad news measured by a cognitive belief-updating task and mathematically formalized by a computational reinforcement learning model.

RESULTS

Of 56 included participants, 29 (52%) were male, and the mean (SEM) age was 52.3 (1.2) years. A total of 26 patients with TRD and 30 control participants were included. A significant group × testing time point × news valence interaction showed that patients with TRD updated their beliefs more after good than bad news following a single ketamine infusion (controlled for age and education: β = -0.91; 95% CI, -1.58 to -0.24; t216 = -2.67; P = .008) than controls. Computational modeling showed that this effect was associated with asymmetrical learning rates (LRs) after ketamine treatment (good news LRs after ketamine, 0.51 [SEM, 0.04]; bad news LRs after ketamine 0.36 [SEM, 0.03], t25 = 3.8; P < .001) and partially mediated early antidepressant responses (path a*b: β = -1.00 [SEM, 0.66]; t26 = -1.53; z = -1.98; P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings provide novel insights into the cognitive mechanisms of the action of ketamine in patients with TRD, with promising perspectives for augmented psychotherapy for individuals with mood disorders.

Optimism and Longevity Among Japanese Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Optimism has been linked to better physical health across various outcomes, including greater longevity. However, most evidence is from Western populations, leaving it unclear whether these relationships may generalize to other cultural backgrounds. Using secondary data analysis, we evaluated the associations of optimism among older Japanese adults.

METHODS

Data were from a nationwide cohort study of Japanese older adults aged ≥65 years (Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study; n = 10,472). In 2010, optimism and relevant covariates (i.e., sociodemographic factors, physical health conditions, depressive symptoms, and health behaviors) were self-reported. Optimism was measured using the Japanese version of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R). Lifespan was determined using mortality information from the public long-term care insurance database through 2017 (7-year follow-up). Accelerated failure time models examined optimism (quintiles or standardized continuous scores) in relation to percent differences in lifespan. Potential effect modification by gender, income, and education was also investigated.

RESULTS

Overall, 733 individuals (7%) died during the follow-up period. Neither continuous nor categorical levels of optimism were associated with lifespan after progressive adjustment for covariates (e.g., in fully-adjusted models: percent differences in lifespan per 1-SD increase in continuous optimism scores= -1.2%, 95%CI: -3.4, 1.1 higher versus lower optimism quintiles= -4.1%, 95%CI: -11.2, 3.6). The association between optimism and lifespan was null across all sociodemographic strata as well.

CONCLUSION

Contrary to the existing evidence from Western populations, optimism was unrelated to longevity among Japanese older adults. The association between optimism, as evaluated by the LOT-R, and longevity may differ across cultural contexts.

Conspiracy claims and secret intentions as predictors of psychological coping and vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 vaccination campaign led to hesitancy, deferment and un-resolving resistance of certain groups or individuals worldwide. Reasons for these reactions include distrust in the COVID-19 vaccine that was developed rapidly, lack of trust in governing entities and unrealistic optimism (UO). Each of these reasons may involve claims of secret intentions or conspiracy theories. The present study examined the role of three different explanations for vaccine hesitancy and rejection, in predicting psychological coping, distress, and level of vaccine uptake, throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Blaming the vaccine and its producers, blaming the state's authorities, and expressing criticism in UO terms, which may hint of some secret intention that underlies the vaccination request. The research was conducted on a sample of 2002 Israeli adults who responded to an anonymous questionnaire about vaccine hesitancy and psychological coping. We assumed that conspiracy theories aimed at the medical and the governing authorities, and the UO insinuations of covert intentions of these authorities, represent two different psychological processes. UO responses to adversity are aimed at reducing anxiety attributing covert intentions to the authorities and the pharmaceutical companies is an expression of anxiety. Three major hypotheses are examined. First, stronger criticism of the vaccine will be associated with a lower level of vaccination. Second, more extreme criticism of the political and the medical authorities for requesting vaccination, raised as a reason for vaccine hesitation will positively predict a higher level of anxiety and negatively predict the extent of good psychological coping. A stronger opposition to the vaccine in terms of UO will be positively associated with a greater scope of resilience and coping and will be negatively linked to indicators of distress. Results supported these hypotheses and enhanced the ongoing discussion on the contribution of UO to psychological adjustment, by illustrating its beneficial effects on this adjustment. Conspiracy Theories and Secret Intentions as Predictors of Psychological Coping and Vaccine Uptake throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic in Israel.

The Effect of Induced Optimism on Situational Pain Catastrophizing

Background

There is broad evidence that optimism is associated with less pain, while pain catastrophizing leads to increased pain. The aim of this study was to examine whether experimentally induced optimism can reduce situational pain catastrophizing and whether this relation is moderated by dispositional optimism and/or dispositional pain catastrophizing.

Methods

Situational pain catastrophizing during two thermal stimulations was measured in 40 healthy participants with the Situational Catastrophizing Questionnaire (SCQ). Between the two stimulations, the Best Possible Self (BPS) imagery and writing task was performed to induce situational optimism in the experimental group while the control group wrote about their typical day. Questionnaires were administered to assess dispositional optimism [Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R)] and dispositional pain catastrophizing [Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS)].

Results

There was a significant interaction between the optimism induction and trait pain catastrophizing: the association of trait pain catastrophizing with state pain catastrophizing was weakened after the optimism induction. No overall effect of induced optimism on situational pain catastrophizing and no significant moderating influence of trait optimism were found.

Conclusion

The state optimism induction apparently counteracted the manifestation of dispositional pain catastrophizing as situational pain catastrophizing. This implies that high trait pain catastrophizers may have especially benefitted from the optimism induction, which is in line with resilience models stressing the buffering role of optimism.

The Mediating Role of Dispositional Optimism in the Relationship between Health Locus of Control and Self-Efficacy in Pregnant Women at Risk of Preterm Delivery

Difficult situations during pregnancy, such as threatened preterm labor, trigger negative experiences in women. The levels of stress experienced and the way individuals cope with it depend on their personal resources, such as optimism, internal health locus of control, and self-efficacy, among other factors. The purpose of this paper was to determine the role of dispositional optimism in the relationship between health locus of control and self-efficacy in pregnant women with threatened preterm labor. Dispositional optimism plays the role of mediator in relationships between: (1) internal health control and self-efficacy; and (2) impact of random events on one's health and self-efficacy. Dispositional optimism does not mediate the relationship between the perceived impact of others on one's health and self-efficacy. For women with a high-risk pregnancy, dispositional optimism is a significant resource for coping with the problems they encounter. It changes the direction (from negative to positive) of the association between experiencing the impact of external factors (random events) on one's health and perceived self-efficacy. It prevents the cycle of loss caused by the interpretation of random events as having an impact on one's health, and acts as a mediator to initiate a cycle of gains that leads to greater perceived self-efficacy. Optimistic pregnant women maintain a positive outlook, even when confronted with difficult, negative experiences such as threatened preterm labor.

Procesos cognitivos implicados en conductas de protección ante COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)

Las conductas de riesgo o protección ante enfermedades virales pueden verse influenciadas por la forma como la población construye cogniciones sobre esta realidad, tales cogniciones resultan clave para comprender cómo actúan las personas respecto a situaciones que representan riesgos para su salud. Este estudio evalúa el papel de procesos cognitivos como los sesgos o falsas creencias, la intención conductual y las creencias de eficacia, en relación con la enfermedad COVID-19, procurando determinar su influencia en los comportamientos de protección incluida la probabilidad de vacunarse. A través de un estudio transversal predictivo se evaluó a 794 personas en Colombia durante el primer pico pandémico de 2020, empleando cuestionarios en línea y se construyeron modelos de regresión para pronosticar las conductas de protección recomendadas por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (lavado de manos, aislamiento social, uso de mascarillas). Los hallazgos señalan alta frecuencia en el sesgo de control y el optimismo ilusorio, al igual que altas expectativas de efectividad del cuidado, los cuales pronostican las conductas de protección y la intención de vacunarse. A partir de los resultados se discute que los sesgos relativos al optimismo no necesariamente implican asumir conductas de exposición a la enfermedad, de hecho, parecen tener un papel funcional en el cuidado.

Willingness to Receive COVID-19 Booster Vaccine: Associations between Green-Pass, Social Media Information, Anti-Vax Beliefs, and Emotional Balance

The aims of the present investigation were (i) to determine psychological relapses of COVID-19 booster vaccine; (ii) to identify the determining factors affecting willingness to receive COVID-19 vaccine; and (iii) to study the relationship among emotional characteristics (anxiety, stress, depression, optimism), social media information, and the mandatory political choices (i.e., green-pass) in Croatian people. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted for 1003 participants (median age: 40 years) from Croatia during December 2021. Results showed a significant association between vaccinated and unvaccinated participants in all sociodemographic variables, except for gender (p = 0.905). For psychological variables, significant differences were found only for levels of optimism (p < 0.001). People with a postgraduate degree (OR: 2.25, [1.14−4.46], p = 0.020) and PhD (OR: 1.97, [95% CI: 1.01−3.52], p = 0.021) had higher odds of being vaccinated than participants with high school diplomas. Additionally, participants seeking information on TV and radio (OR: 2.35, [1.71−3.23], p < 0.001) or from general practitioner (OR: 2.53, [1.78−3.61], p < 0.001) had higher odds of being vaccinated. Conversely, participants seeking information on social networks (OR: 0.36, [0.27−0.49], p < 0.001), general internet/blogs forums (OR: 0.34, [0.22−0.52], p < 0.001), and from friends or acquaintances (OR: 0.66, [0.48−0.91], p = 0.011) had lower odds of being vaccinated. Additionally, results showed that information policies have failed to fully convince the population to vaccinate and that depression (p = 0.491), anxiety (p = 0.220), and stress (p = 0.521) were not determining factors leading to the decision to receive COVID-19 vaccine. Most of the vaccinated participants perceived the green-pass as potentially useful. In contrast, most unvaccinated participants believed that the green-pass is a form of discrimination and not useful (88%). Further and broader research into possible reasons for continuing or undertaking vaccination is needed. It is recommended to introduce a measure of conformism that represents a change of attitude, belief, or behavior in a narrower sense.

[Psychopathology and Theory of Perceptual Disturbances]

Current classification systems for psychiatric disorders are primarly based on categorial typologies and describe these as distinct nosological entities. A dimensional perspective allows descriptions of a gradual transition between pathologies as well as between normality and pathologies of psychiatric symptoms. Using acoustic hallucinations as most common form of perception disturbances as example, psychiatric-psychopathological and theoretical pros and cons for a dimensional classification of psychiatric symptomatology are sketched in this article. Although doubts concerning the similarity of real perceptions and acoustic hallucinations which underlie such mental events are controversially discussed, many hints could be found for a continuum of hallucinatoric symptoms from the mentally healthy population up to the group of patients with schizophrenia. Studies which investigate the neurophysiological mechanisms of acoustic hallucinations such as hearing voices in healthy persons in comparison to those in patients with schizophrenia could contribute to further differentiation.

Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe

Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one's risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network (n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries-France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal.

Embodied Irrationality? Knowledge Avoidance, Willful Ignorance, and the Paradox of Autonomy

In the current philosophical and psychological literature, knowledge avoidance and willful ignorance seem to be almost identical conditions involved in irrational patterns of reasoning. In this paper, we will argue that not only these two phenomena should be distinguished, but that they also fall into different parts of the epistemic rationality-irrationality spectrum. We will adopt an epistemological and embodied perspective to propose a definition for both terms. Then, we will maintain that, while willful ignorance is involved in irrational patterns of reasoning and beliefs, knowledge avoidance should be considered epistemically rational under particular circumstances. We will begin our analysis by considering which of the two phenomena is involved in patterns of reasoning that are still amply recognized as irrational—as wishful thinking, self-deception, and akrasia. We will then discuss the impact of epistemic feelings—which are emotional events that depend on epistemic states—on agents' decision-making. Then, we will consider the impact of willful ignorance and knowledge avoidance on agents' autonomy. By considering these issues, we will argue that when agents are aware that they are avoiding certain information (and aware of what kind of feelings acquiring the information would trigger), knowledge avoidance should be considered a rational, autonomy-increasing, hope-depended selection of information.

Components of Unrealistic Optimism of College Students: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

College students are among the most strongly affected populations by the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic because of uncertainty regarding academic success, future careers, and social life during their study period. Their mental health and behavior may dramatically be impacted. The study examined an unrealistic optimism of Israeli college students in assessing the health, security, and economic risks during the pandemic, and the contributions of these perceived risks to the prediction of psychological coping responses, such as well-being, and coping suppressing response of anxiety, expressed during this pandemic. Using social networks, a questionnaire was disseminated to students during the third lockdown that was implemented in Israel because of the pandemic. Depressive and anxiety symptoms, perceived threats, resilience, well-being, hope, and morale were measured using a structured quantitative questionnaire. First, we hypothesized that the three perceived risks would be inversely rated, so perceived health risk would be rated lowest, and perceived economic risk would be rated highest. The second and third hypotheses claimed that psychological coping responses articulated along this pandemic would be predicted by all these perceived risks, as well as the observance of pandemic precaution rules. The fourth hypothesis suggested that the three investigated perceived risks will positively and significantly correlate with each other. The results generally supported the hypotheses and indicated that the unrealistic optimism process was employed quite consistently by the participating students.

Existential therapy versus acceptance and commitment therapy for feelings of loneliness and irrational beliefs in male prisoners

Today's people live in a society with many dangers to their peace and security. The effectiveness of different therapies in psychological variables needs to be evaluated to reach the most precise therapies based on research evidence. This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of existential therapy (ET) and acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) in alleviating the loneliness and irrational beliefs of male prisoners. In the present quasi-experimental study, the statistical population consisted of all married male prisoners aged between 25 to 45 years in Mashhad Central Prison in the first half of 2017. Among the statistical population, 36 people were selected and then randomly placed in three research groups. The two experimental groups underwent eight separate intervention sessions, ET, and ACT. At the beginning and end of the study, all of the three groups were evaluated by a research questionnaire, including the loneliness scale. The results of data analysis showed that, in comparison with the control group, the changes in the other two groups under ET and ACT were significant as to the feeling of loneliness and irrational beliefs of prisoners. However, there was no significant difference between the effects of these two treatments. The present research was limited in the case of examining the follow-up stage due to lack of access and cooperation of the subjects, incorporating some control variables (such as the history of substance use and psychiatry), and employing other evaluation methods (e.g., interview). It is highly suggested that future research should address these limitations.

Dynamic Risk Perceptions in Times of Avian and Seasonal Influenza Epidemics: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Design

Infectious diseases pose a serious threat to humans. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how accurately people perceive these risks. However, accuracy can be operationalized differently depending on the standard of comparison. The present study investigated accuracy in risk perceptions for three infectious diseases (avian influenza, seasonal influenza, common cold) using three different standards for accuracy: Social comparison (self vs. others' risk perceptions), general problem level (risk perceptions for diseases with varying threat levels), and dynamic problem level (risk perceptions during epidemics/seasons vs. nonepidemic/off-season times). Four online surveys were conducted using a repeated cross-sectional design. Two surveys were conducted during epidemics/seasons of avian influenza, seasonal influenza, and common cold in 2006 (n = 387) and 2016 (n = 370) and two surveys during nonepidemic/off-season times for the three diseases in 2009 (n = 792) during a swine flu outbreak and in 2018 (n = 422) during no outbreak of zoonotic influenza. While on average participants felt less at risk than others, indicating an optimistic bias, risk perceptions matched the magnitude of risk associated with the three infectious diseases. Importantly, a significant three-way interaction indicated dynamic accuracy in risk perceptions: Participants felt more at risk for seasonal influenza and common cold during influenza and cold seasons, compared with off-season times. However, these dynamic increases were more pronounced in the perceived risk for others than for oneself (optimistic bias). The results emphasize the importance of using multiple approaches to assess accuracy of risk perception as they provided different information on how accurately people gauge their risk when facing infectious diseases.

Risk perception and optimism during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic

Slowing the spread of COVID-19 requires people to actively change their lives by following protective practices, such as physical distancing and disinfecting their hands. Perceptions about the personal risk of COVID-19 may affect compliance with these practices. In this study, we assessed risk perception and optimism about COVID-19 in a multinational (UK, USA and Germany), longitudinal design during the early stages of the pandemic (16 March 2020; 1 April 2020; 20 May 2020). Our main findings are that (i) people showed a comparative optimism bias about getting infected and infecting others, but not for getting severe symptoms, (ii) this optimism bias did not change over time, (iii) optimism bias seemed to relate to perceived level of control over the action, (iv) risk perception was linked to publicly available information about the disorder, (v) people reported adhering closely to protective measures but these measures did not seem to be related to risk perception, and (vi) risk perception was related to questions about stress and anxiety. In additional cross-sectional samples, we replicated our most important findings. Our open and partly preregistered results provide detailed descriptions of risk perceptions and optimistic beliefs during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western countries.

Media intervention program for reducing unrealistic optimism bias: The link between unrealistic optimism, well-being, and health

Unrealistic optimism is the tendency to perceive oneself as safer than others in situations that equally threaten everybody. By reducing fear, this bias boosts one's well-being; however, it is also a deterrent to one's health. Three experiments were run in a mixed-design on 1831 participants to eliminate unrealistic optimism (measured by two items-probability of COVID-19 infection for oneself and for others; within-subjects) toward the probability of COVID-19 infection via articles/videos. A between-subject factor was created by manipulation. Ostensibly, daily newspaper articles describing other people diligently following medical recommendations (experiment 1) and videos showing people who did not follow these recommendations (experiment 2) reduced unrealistic optimism. The third experiment, which included both articles and videos, replicated these results. These results can be applied to strategies for written and video communications that can be used by governments and public health agencies as best practices concerning not only COVID-19 but also any subsequent public health threat while promoting proactive, optimal, and healthy functioning of the individual.

"It Won't Happen to Us": Unrealistic Optimism Affects COVID-19 Risk Assessments and Attitudes Regarding Protective Behaviour

People generally believe that their own future will be better than the one of comparable others. Robust evidence documents such unrealistic optimism in many domains of life. Here, we examine how unrealistic optimism may affect people's risk assessments of COVID-19 infection as well as their attitudes regarding behaviours intended to protect against contagion. In two studies conducted in the USA (N = 160) and UK (N = 161), at different times during the pandemic, we show that participants considered the likelihood of contracting and carrying the infection lower for themselves and their close other compared to an acquaintance, while they considered the likelihood of engaging in protective behaviours higher for themselves and their close other than an acquaintance. The findings document unrealistic optimism in relation to COVID-19. Such biases are particularly critical in relation to infectious diseases, where underestimating the risk for both oneself and close others may reduce precautions and increase virus spreading.

Do delusions have and give meaning?

Delusions are often portrayed as paradigmatic instances of incomprehensibility and meaninglessness. Here we investigate the relationship between delusions and meaning from a philosophical perspective, integrating arguments and evidence from cognitive psychology and phenomenological psychopathology. We review some of the empirical and philosophical literature relevant to two claims about delusions and meaning: (1) delusions are meaningful, despite being described as irrational and implausible beliefs; (2) some delusions can also enhance the sense that one's life is meaningful, supporting agency and creativity in some circumstances. Delusions are not incomprehensible representations of reality. Rather, they can help make sense of one's unusual experiences and in some circumstances even support one's endeavours, albeit temporarily and imperfectly. Acknowledging that delusions have meaning and can also give meaning to people's lives has implications for our understanding of psychotic symptoms and for addressing the stigma associated with psychiatric conditions.

Searching and Making Meaning of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Perspectives of African Immigrants in the United States

African immigrants continue to be disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is unclear how they are searching for and finding meaning in the face of this adversity. This study sought to understand how African immigrants in the United States are searching for and making meaning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted in-depth interviews remotely with 20 immigrants from West Africa (Nigeria and Ghana), East Africa (Somali and Rwanda), and Central Africa (Democratic Republic of Congo). The meaning-making model was used as a framework to understand the processes of coping during a significant, adverse life event. The study found that some participants attempted to reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their global meaning by seeking answers as to why the pandemic occurred and creating positive illusions. Some redefined their priorities and reframed the pandemic in a positive light. Participants found meaning in the form of accepting the pandemic as a reality of life, appreciating events previously taken for granted, and making positive changes in their lives. This study’s findings can inform health care providers of the meaning-making processes of African immigrants and the need to assist them in their search for meaning.

Risk Exposures, Risk Perceptions, Negative Attitudes Toward General Vaccination, and COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Among College Students in south Carolina

PURPOSE

The current study investigated how risk exposures, risk perceptions of COVID-19, and negative attitudes toward general vaccination were related to COVID vaccine acceptance among college students.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Data was collected by online survey using RedCap among college students in South Carolina between September 2020 and October 2020.

SAMPLE

1062 college students in South Carolina.

MEASURES

risk exposures to COVID-19, perceived severity of COVID-19, perceived susceptibility of COVID-19, negative attitude toward general vaccination, vaccine acceptance of COVID-19.

ANALYSIS

Hierarchical linear regression was used to examine the association of these factors with COVID-19 vaccine acceptance controlling for key demographics.

RESULTS

Perceived severity of COVID-19 was positively associated with vaccine acceptance (ß = 0.19, p < 0.001). Higher level of risk exposures (ß = -0.08, p = 0.007) and negative attitude toward general vaccination (ß = -0.38, p < 0.001) were associated with low vaccine acceptance.

CONCLUSION

We need tailored education messages for college students to emphasize the severity of COVID-19, address the concerns of side effects of general vaccines by dispelling the misconception, and target the most vulnerable subgroups who reported high level of risk exposures while showed low intention to take the vaccine.

Unrealistic Optimism and Risk for COVID-19 Disease

Risk perception and consequently engagement in behaviors to avoid illness often do not match actual risk of infection, morbidity, and mortality. Unrealistic optimism occurs when individuals falsely believe that their personal outcomes will be more favorable than others' in the same risk category. Natural selection could favor overconfidence if its benefits, such as psychological resilience, outweigh its costs. However, just because optimism biases may have offered fitness advantages in our evolutionary past does not mean that they are always optimal. The current project examined relationships among personal risk for severe COVID-19, risk perceptions, and preventative behaviors. We predicted that those with higher risk of severe COVID-19 would exhibit unrealistic optimism and behave in ways inconsistent with their elevated risk of morbidity and mortality. Clinical risk scores for severe COVID-19 were calculated and compared with COVID-19 threat appraisal, compliance with shelter-in-place orders (March 13–May 22, 2020) and travel restrictions, compliance with public health recommendations, and potential covariates like self-rated knowledge about COVID-19 in a robust dataset including 492 participants from McLennan County, TX, USA. While those with high clinical risk acknowledged their greater likelihood of experiencing severe illness if infected, they actually reported lower perceived likelihood of becoming infected in the first place. While it is possible that those with higher clinical risk scores truly are less likely to become infected, the pattern and significance of these results held after controlling for possible occupational exposure, household size, and other factors related to infection probability. Higher clinical risk also predicted more recent travel within Texas and lower distress during the pandemic (i.e., feeling less stressed, depressed, and helpless). Additional behavioral data suggested that those with higher clinical risk scores did not generally behave differently than those with lower scores during the shelter-in-place order. While unrealistic optimism may provide some short-term psychological benefits, it could be dangerous due to improper assessment of hazardous situations; inferring that optimism bias has evolutionary origins does not mean that unrealistic optimism is “optimal” in every situation. This may be especially true when individuals face novel sources (or scales) of risk, such as a global pandemic.

We are infected with the new, mutated virus UO-COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

Optimism is boosted by leaders hoping for job creation, increased business spending, and a high consumption rate. In this research, we assessed the hazardous side effect for global health policies stemming from this optimism: unrealistic optimism (being unrealistically optimistic about future negative events), which may be responsible for new infections and may prevent the eradication of COVID-19. The goal of the research was not only to assess whether this effect exists and to find out whether such an effect is global but also to evaluate whether there are groups resistant to this effect (presenting a potential toolkit for reducing this effect).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In May and April of 2020, online surveys were administered among students in Iran, Kazakhstan, and Poland respectively to assess the unrealistic optimism/pessimism. In study 1/objective 1, the survey was conducted twice (in a period of about 3 weeks) to assess the potential change (due to the anonymous codes delivered by the participants, we were able to make follow-ups between the same participants) in time in the 3 countries. In the first wave, 1611 participants took the survey. In the second wave, there were 1426 respondents. In study 2, the survey was conducted among 207 Polish healthcare workers of the frontline hospital.

RESULTS

In study 1 across the 3 cultures (the first wave for unmatched data by the code of the specific participant F(1, 1608) = 419.2; p < 0.001, and for matched data F(1, 372) = 167.195; p < 0.001; η_p² = 0.31; η_p² = 0.21; the second wave for unmatched data F(1, 1423) = 359.61; p < 0.001; η_p² = 0.2, and for matched F(1, 372) = 166.84; p < 0.001; η_p² = 0.31), unrealistic optimism is present, and importantly it is constant in time. In study 2, unrealistic optimism was not found among healthcare professionals, who we hypothesized due to the medical knowledge are not inclined to be unrealistically optimistic t(206) = 1.06; p = 0.290, d = 0.07.

CONCLUSION

Medical education of COVID-19 severity might reduce unrealistic optimism, which may be the reason why pandemic restrictions are not being respected.

'Luckily, I don't believe in statistics': survey of women's understanding of chance of success with futile fertility treatments

RESEARCH QUESTION

Why are women who face poor prognoses for success in assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment choosing to pursue procedures using their own eggs, despite receiving information that their chances of success are very low.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study based on an anonymous questionnaire distributed to women aged between 43 and 45 years, undergoing ART using their own oocytes, at six public outpatient fertility clinics and three public in-hospital IVF units in Israel between 2015 and 2016. The main outcome measure was personal estimation of chance to achieve a live birth after the current ART treatment cycle and the cumulative estimated rate after all the treatment cycles the patient intended to undergo.

RESULTS

Response rate was 70.0%, with 91 participants of mean age 43.8 ± 0.7 years. Participants estimated their delivery rates after the next ART treatment cycle at 49.0 ± 31.8% (response rate 93.4%) and their cumulative delivery rates after all the ART treatments they would undergo at 57.7 ± 36.3% (response rate 90.1%). This is significantly higher than the predicted success rates of 5% and 15%, respectively (both P < 0.001), which are based on national register data. Nearly one-half of patients rated themselves as having a better than average chance of conception (47.3%).

CONCLUSION

Women do not pursue futile treatments because they lack information. Despite being informed of the low success rates of conception using ART treatments, many patients of advanced maternal age have unrealistically high expectations from ART, essentially ignoring their estimated prognosis when deciding on treatment continuation. Future work should examine the psychological reasons behind continuing futile fertility treatments.

The role of Optimistic Bias in safe food handling behaviours in the food service sector

This study evaluates the influences on food handlers' intention to conduct safe handling behaviours in food service settings in Brazil and the United Kingdom, focusing on Optimistic bias (OB). Although OB has been identified in food handlers in other studies, this is the first study evaluating the role of OB in determining behavioural intention. Three hundred participants, from the United Kingdom (n = 150) and Brazil (n = 150), completed a Theory of Planned Behaviour - based questionnaire, including additional questions about OB. For Brazilian food handlers, Attitude had a significant influence on Behavioural Intention followed by Subjective Norm, while Perceived Behavioural Control and OB did not significantly influence Behavioural Intention. For the United Kingdom, Perceived Behavioural Control had the largest influence, followed by Attitude, and then OB. Results suggest that cultural differences may influence predictors of behavioural intention, and that OB can contribute to predicting engagement in safe handling behaviours. Results contribute to a better understanding of the influences on food safety related behaviours.

Finnish Students’ Knowledge of Climate Change Mitigation and Its Connection to Hope

Climate change is a global concern, and the need to address it is urgent. Therefore, climate change education has been developed in recent years. Meaning making, coping strategies, and solution-oriented climate education tasks enable and maintain hope for positive results with regard to climate change. However, there is still uncertainty as to how students’ knowledge of climate change mitigation measures affects their attitudes. In the present study, elementary and secondary students in Finland (n = 950) responded to an online questionnaire. A principal component analysis, a hierarchical regression analysis, a correlation coefficients, a t-test, and a Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance were used for the analysis to understand what kind of hope students had towards climate change and how their knowledge and optimism regarding climate change affected their hope. The data revealed that the students had a relatively high constructive hope rather than denial hope when it comes to climate change. Additionally, this hope was not built on a minimisation of climate change. The results indicated that the significant predictors for climate change mitigation were gender, climate change knowledge, and constructive hope. A typology of student positions with regard to climate change is introduced as conclusions.

Effectiveness of Leadership Decision-Making in Complex Systems

This paper traverses the domains of leadership and decision-making within various types of systems with different levels of complexity. The article presents some background about both leadership and decision-making, and then explores the concept of leadership decision-making and some of the factors involved. The paper then reviews complex systems and provides examples to differentiate complex systems from other systems. Finally, these strands are brought together with a consideration of leadership decision-making in complex systems and presentation of a framework to assist managers faced with decision-making in complexity, based on data collected in a survey. The aim and practical contribution of this paper is to improve the outcomes of leadership decision-making within complex systems, based upon the findings and on a decision aid model derived from them. The paper, therefore, should help people in real life and leaders within organizational settings to improve their decision-making effectiveness within the ever-increasing range of complex situations which are now widely encountered.

Development and validation of the openness to the future scale: a prospective protective factor

Background

Most of the research on psychopathology has provided an incomplete picture of mental health by focusing on vulnerability factors and omitting the transversal processes that may explain human adapted functioning. Moreover, research has not sufficiently addressed prospective protective factors for mental health. New theoretical and empirical endeavors aim to incorporate this perspective, particularly in the realm of emotional disorders. A positive view of the future is an indispensable process in attaining desired goals and wellbeing. Openness to the Future is a construct characterized by positive affectivity towards the future, which can be a protective factor for mental health. Although some scales assess future orientations, the complexity of this concept has not yet been captured; therefore, there is a need for new instruments. This study presents the development and validation of a scale for measuring Openness to the Future in clinical (n = 412) and community (n = 890) samples.

Methods

Psychometric properties of the OFS were analyzed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Item Response Theory (IRT) analyses, establishing cut-off points to better classify these two groups. Moreover, convergent and discriminant validity were examined by correlating the OFS with theoretically related constructs.

Results

Results support a unidimensional structure and indicate that the items function similarly across clinical and community samples. Moreover, the Openness to the Future scale shows good convergent and discriminant validity.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that the Openness to the Future scale is a valid and brief measure of openness to the future for use with clinical and community samples, and it could help to fill a gap in the literature regarding attitudes towards the future and their implications. Openness to the Future is presented as an empirically feasible and theoretically consistent construct that includes both prospective and protective factors in the psychopathological chart.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12955-018-0889-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Psychobiological stress in vital exhaustion. Findings from the Men Stress 40+ study

OBJECTIVE

Despite the increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity associated with vital exhaustion (VE), the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms remain unclear. Allostatic load may constitute the missing link between VE and cardiovascular diseases. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether men with different degrees of VE would differ in terms of allostatic load, chronic stress, and social support.

METHODS

The Men Stress 40+ study sample consisted of N=121 apparently healthy men aged 40 to 75years. The following allostatic load markers were aggregated to create a cumulative index of biological stress: salivary cortisol, salivary dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S), waist-to-hip-ratio, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Long-term cortisol and DHEA were additionally measured in hair. Chronic stress and social support were assessed via validated questionnaires. Groups of mildly, substantially, and severely exhausted men were compared using one-way ANOVAs with appropriate post-hoc tests.

RESULTS

Men who reported mild or severe levels of vital exhaustion had the highest scores on the cumulative index of biological stress. Hair cortisol was unrelated to vital exhaustion; hair DHEA was highest in men with substantial levels of exhaustion. Men with mild exhaustion reported the lowest levels of chronic stress, while men with severe exhaustion reported the lowest levels of social support.

CONCLUSIONS

Signs of allostatic load are detectable in vitally exhausted men at a stage where no major cardiovascular consequences have yet ensued.