The Potential for Rapid Evolution under Anthropogenic Climate Change

The value of long-term ecological research for evolutionary insights

Scientists must have an integrative understanding of ecology and evolution across spatial and temporal scales to predict how species will respond to global change. Although comprehensively investigating these processes in nature is challenging, the infrastructure and data from long-term ecological research networks can support cross-disciplinary investigations. We propose using these networks to advance our understanding of fundamental evolutionary processes and responses to global change. For ecologists, we outline how long-term ecological experiments can be expanded for evolutionary inquiry, and for evolutionary biologists, we illustrate how observed long-term ecological patterns may motivate new evolutionary questions. We advocate for collaborative, multi-site investigations and discuss barriers to conducting evolutionary work at network sites. Ultimately, these networks offer valuable information and opportunities to improve predictions of species' responses to global change.

Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.

Hydration state does not affect selected body temperature during gravidity or gravidity duration in pythons (Antaresia childreni)

The embryonic development of many ectothermic species are highly sensitive to temperature and typically have a higher thermal optima than do most other physiological processes. Thus, female ectotherms often maintain a higher and more carefully controlled body temperature when she is supporting developing embryos (early development in oviparous species, throughout development in viviparous species). Considering the positive correlation between body temperature and evaporative water loss, this response could potentially exacerbate female water imbalance in water-limited environments, suggesting that female water balance and egg development may be in conflict. Using Children's pythons (Antaresia childreni), we hypothesized that water deprivation reduces thermophily during gravidity. We split reproductive females into two thermal treatments: those provided with a continuously available thermal gradient of 25-45 °C and those kept at a constant 31 °C. We also had seven non-reproductive females that were provided a thermal gradient. Within each thermal treatment group, we alternatingly assigned females to either have or not have water throughout gravidity. We found that reproduction increased female body temperature, but this increase was not affected by water regime. Reproduction also increased plasma osmolality, and lack of water during gravidity exacerbated this effect. We also found that thermal treatment, but not water regime, significantly influenced gravidity duration, with females given a thermogradient having a shorter gravidity duration, likely as a result of having a higher average body temperature than did the females provided constant heat. Finally, we found that females provided water throughout gravidity had greater clutch masses than did females without water. Further research is needed to improve scientific understanding of the interactions among water balance, body temperature, and various physiological performances.

Flexibility in thermal requirements: a comparative analysis of the wide-spread lizard genus Sceloporus

Adaptation or acclimation of thermal requirements to environmental conditions can reduce thermoregulation costs and increase fitness, especially in ectotherms, which rely heavily on environmental temperatures for thermoregulation. Insight into how thermal niches have shaped thermal requirements across evolutionary history may help predict the survival of species during climate change. The lizard genus Sceloporus has a widespread distribution and inhabits an ample variety of habitats. We evaluated the effects of geographical gradients (i.e. elevation and latitude) and local environmental temperatures on thermal requirements (i.e. preferred body temperature, active body temperature in the field, and critical thermal limits) of Sceloporus species using published and field-collected data and performing phylogenetic comparative analyses. To contrast macro- and micro-evolutional patterns, we also performed intra-specific analyses when sufficient reports existed for a species. We found that preferred body temperature increased with elevation, whereas body temperature in the field decreased with elevation and increased with local environmental temperatures. Critical thermal limits were not related to the geographic gradient or environmental temperatures. The apparent lack of relation of thermal requirements to geographic gradient may increase vulnerability to extinction due to climate change. However, local and temporal variations in thermal landscape determine thermoregulation opportunities and may not be well represented by geographic gradient and mean environmental temperatures. Results showed that Sceloporus lizards are excellent thermoregulators, have wide thermal tolerance ranges, and the preferred temperature was labile. Our results suggest that Sceloporus lizards can adjust to different thermal landscapes, highlighting opportunities for continuous survival in changing thermal environments.

A role of epigenetic mechanisms in regulating female reproductive responses to temperature in a pest beetle

Many species are threatened by climate change and must rapidly respond to survive in changing environments. Epigenetic modifications, such as DNA methylation, can facilitate plastic responses by regulating gene expression in response to environmental cues. Understanding epigenetic responses is therefore essential for predicting species' ability to rapidly adapt in the context of global environmental change. Here, we investigated the functional significance of different methylation-associated cellular processes on temperature-dependent life history in seed beetles, Callosobruchus maculatus Fabricius 1775 (Coleoptera: Bruchidae). We assessed changes under thermal stress in (1) DNA methyltransferase (Dnmt1 and Dnmt2) expression levels, (2) genome-wide methylation and (3) reproductive performance, with (2) and (3) following treatment with 3-aminobenzamide (3AB) and zebularine (Zeb) over two generations. These drugs are well-documented to alter DNA methylation across the tree of life. We found that Dnmt1 and Dnmt2 were expressed throughout the body in males and females, but were highly expressed in females compared with males and exhibited temperature dependence. However, whole-genome methylation did not significantly vary with temperature, and only marginally or inconclusively with drug treatment. Both 3AB and Zeb led to profound temperature-dependent shifts in female reproductive life history trade-off allocation, often increasing fitness compared with control beetles. Mismatch between magnitude of treatment effects on DNA methylation versus life history effects suggest potential of 3AB and Zeb to alter reproductive trade-offs via changes in DNA repair and recycling processes, rather than or in addition to (subtle) changes in DNA methylation. Together, our results suggest that epigenetic mechanisms relating to Dnmt expression, DNA repair and recycling pathways, and possibly DNA methylation, are strongly implicated in modulating insect life history trade-offs in response to temperature change.

A new dawn for the study of cell type evolution

Animal evolution is influenced by the emergence of new cell types, yet our understanding of this process remains elusive. This prompts the need for a broader exploration across diverse research organisms, facilitated by recent breakthroughs, such as gene editing tools and single-cell genomics. Essential to our understanding of cell type evolution is the accurate identification of homologous cells. We delve into the significance of considering developmental ontogeny and potential pitfalls when drawing conclusions about cell type homology. Additionally, we highlight recent discoveries in the study of cell type evolution through the application of single-cell transcriptomics and pinpoint areas ripe for further exploration.

Temperature has an overriding role compared to photoperiod in regulating the seasonal timing of winter moth egg hatching

To accurately predict species' phenology under climate change, we need to gain a detailed mechanistic understanding of how different environmental cues interact to produce the seasonal timing response. In the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), seasonal timing of egg hatching is strongly affected by ambient temperature and has been under strong climate change-induced selection over the past 25 years. However, it is unclear whether photoperiod received at the egg stage also influences timing of egg hatching. Here, we investigated the relative contribution of photoperiod and temperature in regulating winter moth egg development using two split-brood experiments. We experimentally shifted the photoperiod eggs received by 2-4 weeks compared to the actual calendar date and measured the timing of egg hatching, both at a constant temperature and in combination with two naturally changing temperature treatments - mimicking a cold and a warm year. We found an eight-fold larger effect of temperature compared to photoperiod on egg development time. Moreover, the very small photoperiod effects we found were outweighed by both between- and within-clutch variation in egg development time. Thus, we conclude that photoperiod received at the egg stage does likely not play a substantial role in regulating the seasonal timing of egg hatching in the winter moth. These insights into the regulatory mechanism of seasonal timing could have important implications for predicting insect climate change adaptation, as we might expect different targets of selection depending on the relative contribution of different environmental cues.

Climate change reduces long-term population benefits from no-take marine protected areas through selective pressures on species movement

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools that confer ecosystem benefits by removing fishing within their borders to allow stocks to rebuild. Fishing mortality outside a traditionally fixed MPA can exert selective pressure for low movement alleles, resulting in enhanced protection. While evolving to move less may be useful for conservation presently, it could be detrimental in the face of climate change for species that need to move to track their thermal optimum. Here, we build a spatially explicit simulation model to assess the impact of movement evolution in and around static MPAs resulting from both fishing mortality and temperature-dependent natural mortality on conservation benefits across five climate scenarios: (i) linear mean temperature shift, (ii) El Niño/La Niña conditions, (iii) heat waves, (iv) heatwaves with a mean temperature shift, and (v) no climate change. While movement evolution allows populations within MPAs to survive longer, we find that over time, climate change degrades the benefits by selecting for higher movement genotypes. Resulting population declines within MPAs are faster than expected based on climate mortality alone, even within the largest MPAs. Our findings suggest that while static MPAs may conserve species for a time, other strategies, such as dynamic MPA networks or assisted migration, may also be required to effectively incorporate climate change into conservation planning.

Evolution of the human birth canal

It seems puzzling why humans have evolved such a small and rigid birth canal that entails a relatively complex process of labor compared with the birth canal of our closest relatives, the great apes. This study reviewed insights into the evolution of the human birth canal from recent theoretical and empirical studies and discussed connections to obstetrics, gynecology, and orthopedics. Originating from the evolution of bipedality and the large human brain million years ago, the evolution of the human birth canal has been characterized by complex trade-off dynamics among multiple biological, environmental, and sociocultural factors. The long-held notion that a wider pelvis has not evolved because it would be disadvantageous for bipedal locomotion has not yet been empirically verified. However, recent clinical and biomechanical studies suggest that a larger birth canal would compromise pelvic floor stability and increase the risk of incontinence and pelvic organ prolapse. Several mammals have neonates that are equally large or even larger than human neonates compared to the size of the maternal birth canal. In these species, the pubic symphysis opens widely to allow successful delivery. Biomechanical and developmental constraints imposed by bipedality have hindered this evolutionary solution in humans and led to the comparatively rigid pelvic girdle in pregnant women. Mathematical models have shown why the evolutionary compromise to these antagonistic selective factors inevitably involves a certain rate of fetopelvic disproportion. In addition, these models predict that cesarean deliveries have disrupted the evolutionary equilibrium and led to new and ongoing evolutionary changes. Different forms of assisted birth have existed since the stone age and have become an integral part of human reproduction. Paradoxically, by buffering selection, they may also have hindered the evolution of a larger birth canal. Many of the biological, environmental, and sociocultural factors that have influenced the evolution of the human birth canal vary globally and are subject to ongoing transitions. These differences may have contributed to the global variation in the form of the birth canal and the difficulty of labor, and they likely continue to change human reproductive anatomy.

Phenotypic Diversity of a Leafroller Archips podana (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae) Does Not Change along an Industrial Pollution Gradient

Morphological polymorphism offers rich opportunities for studying the eco-evolutionary mechanisms that drive the adaptations of local populations to heterogeneous and changing environments. In this study, I explore the association between pollution load, abundance of large fruit-tree tortrix Archips podana and its within-species diversity (expressed in the presence of apical and/or lateral prongs on the phallus in male genitalia) across 26 study sites located 0.5 to 31 km from the industrial city of Lipetsk in central Russia. The Shannon diversity index, calculated from the frequencies of four morphs, correlated neither with the distance to the nearest industrial polluter (a proxy of pollution load) nor with the number of moths captured by pheromone traps (a measure of population abundance). The statistical power of the correlation analysis was sufficient (67%) to detect a medium effect (i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient with an absolute value of 0.40), if it existed. I conclude that the four phenotypes of A. podana do not differ in tolerance to industrial pollution and similarly respond to pollution-induced environmental disturbance. This is the first study of industrial pollution impacts on within-species diversity of insects expressed in the discrete traits of their male genitalia.

Resurrected seeds from herbarium specimens reveal rapid evolution of drought resistance in a selfing annual

PREMISE

Increased aridity and drought associated with climate change are exerting unprecedented selection pressures on plant populations. Whether populations can rapidly adapt, and which life history traits might confer increased fitness under drought, remain outstanding questions.

METHODS

We utilized a resurrection ecology approach, leveraging dormant seeds from herbarium collections to assess whether populations of Plantago patagonica from the semi-arid Colorado Plateau have rapidly evolved in response to approximately ten years of intense drought in the region. We quantified multiple traits associated with drought escape and drought resistance and assessed the survival of ancestors and descendants under simulated drought.

RESULTS

Descendant populations displayed a significant shift in resource allocation, in which they invested less in reproductive tissues and relatively more in both above- and below-ground vegetative tissues. Plants with greater leaf biomass survived longer under terminal drought; moreover, even after accounting for the effect of increased leaf biomass, descendant seedlings survived drought longer than their ancestors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results document rapid adaptive evolution in response to climate change in a selfing annual and suggest that shifts in tissue allocation strategies may underlie adaptive responses to drought in arid or semi-arid environments. This work also illustrates a novel approach, documenting that under specific circumstances, seeds from herbarium specimens may provide an untapped source of dormant propagules for future resurrection experiments.

Does the definition of a novel environment affect the ability to detect cryptic genetic variation?

Anthropogenic change exposes populations to environments that have been rare or entirely absent from their evolutionary past. Such novel environments are hypothesized to release cryptic genetic variation, a hidden store of variance that can fuel evolution. However, support for this hypothesis is mixed. One possible reason is a lack of clarity in what is meant by 'novel environment', an umbrella term encompassing conditions with potentially contrasting effects on the exposure or concealment of cryptic variation. Here, we use a meta-analysis approach to investigate changes in the total genetic variance of multivariate traits in ancestral versus novel environments. To determine whether the definition of a novel environment could explain the mixed support for a release of cryptic genetic variation, we compared absolute novel environments, those not represented in a population's evolutionary past, to extreme novel environments, those involving frequency or magnitude changes to environments present in a population's ancestry. Despite sufficient statistical power, we detected no broad-scale pattern of increased genetic variance in novel environments, and finding the type of novel environment did not explain any significant variation in effect sizes. When effect sizes were partitioned by experimental design, we found increased genetic variation in studies based on broad-sense measures of variance, and decreased variation in narrow-sense studies, in support of previous research. Therefore, the source of genetic variance, not the definition of a novel environment, was key to understanding environment-dependant genetic variation, highlighting non-additive genetic variance as an important component of cryptic genetic variation and avenue for future research.

Thermal acclimatisation to heatwave conditions is rapid but sex-specific in wild zebra finches

Under climate change, increasing air temperature average and variability pose substantial thermal challenges to animals. While plasticity in thermoregulatory traits could potentially attenuate this impact, whether thermal acclimatisation can occur quickly enough to track weather variability in hot climates is unknown in any endotherm, and sex differences have never been tested. We investigated acclimatisation responsiveness of male and female wild zebra finches to short-term (< 2 weeks) summer temperature fluctuations in the Australian desert. Hotter weather before respirometry trials triggered a typical acclimatisation response (especially at chamber temperature Tchamb ≥ 40). However, acclimatisation occurred remarkably rapidly: metabolic rate responded within just one day, while body temperature (Tb) and evaporative cooling capacity (EHL/MHP) were best predicted by weather on the trial day; whereas evaporative water loss responded more slowly (1 week). Nonetheless, rapid acclimatisation only occurred in males, and females had higher Tb and lower EHL/MHP than males, potentially increasing hyperthermia risk. Furthermore, acclimatisation did not translate into greater acute heat tolerance (i.e. ability to tolerate Tchamb = 46 °C). Our results therefore reveal surprisingly rapid acclimatisation and even anticipatory adjustments to heat. However, with no changes in acute heat tolerance, and in females, phenotypic flexibility may provide only limited buffering against the detrimental impact of heatwaves.

Reconciling the variability in the biological response of marine invertebrates to climate change

As climate change increases the rate of environmental change and the frequency and intensity of disturbance events, selective forces intensify. However, given the complicated interplay between plasticity and selection for ecological - and thus evolutionary - outcomes, understanding the proximate signals, molecular mechanisms and the role of environmental history becomes increasingly critical for eco-evolutionary forecasting. To enhance the accuracy of our forecasting, we must characterize environmental signals at a level of resolution that is relevant to the organism, such as the microhabitat it inhabits and its intracellular conditions, while also quantifying the biological responses to these signals in the appropriate cells and tissues. In this Commentary, we provide historical context to some of the long-standing challenges in global change biology that constrain our capacity for eco-evolutionary forecasting using reef-building corals as a focal model. We then describe examples of mismatches between the scales of external signals relative to the sensors and signal transduction cascades that initiate and maintain cellular responses. Studying cellular responses at this scale is crucial because these responses are the basis of acclimation to changing environmental conditions and the potential for environmental 'memory' of prior or historical conditions through molecular mechanisms. To challenge the field, we outline some unresolved questions and suggest approaches to align experimental work with an organism's perception of the environment; these aspects are discussed with respect to human interventions.

Variation in nest-building behaviour in birds: a multi-species approach

Researchers have long suggested that animals with greater behavioural flexibility will be more likely to survive in face of environmental changes. However, it is unknown how this varies across species. Nest building is a behaviour directly related to the reproduction and survival of species by conferring protection from external environmental conditions. The study of nests offers a window into the behaviour of birds, and variation in nest morphology is necessarily linked to variation in building behaviours. We test whether variation in nest morphology is phylogenetically conserved by using data on nest morphology from 55 passerine species (>700 specimens) and measuring intraspecific variability in nest structure. We found that species mean and within-species variation in nest morphology are phylogenetically conserved, and that species with domed nests presented higher levels of nest morphology variation than cup nest species. We also revealed that the capacity of species to present innovative behaviours is not linked with how they vary nest morphology. Moreover, we revealed that nests from species with larger variation in clutch size and that are built by single parents are more variable. Our results help in the understanding of how behaviour and extended phenotypes evolve, and highlight the importance of exploring the phylogenetic history of behavioural flexibility when trying to predict the capacity of species to respond to novel challenges. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolutionary ecology of nests: a cross-taxon approach'.

Latitude-specific urbanization effects on life history traits in the damselfly Ischnura elegans

Many species are currently adapting to cities at different latitudes. Adaptation to urbanization may require eco-evolutionary changes in response to temperature and invasive species that may differ between latitudes. Here, we studied single and combined effects of increased temperatures and an invasive alien predator on the phenotypic response of replicated urban and rural populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans and contrasted these between central and high latitudes. Adult females were collected in rural and urban ponds at central and high latitudes. Their larvae were exposed to temperature treatments (current [20°C], mild warming [24°C], and heat wave [28°C; for high latitude only]) crossed with the presence or absence of chemical cues released by the spiny-cheek crayfish (Faxonius limosus), only present at the central latitude. We measured treatment effects on larval development time, mass, and growth rate. Urbanization type affected all life history traits, yet these responses were often dependent on latitude, temperature, and sex. Mild warming decreased mass in rural and increased growth rate in urban populations. The effects of urbanization type on mass were latitude-dependent, with central-latitude populations having a greater phenotypic difference. Urbanization type effects were sex-specific with urban males being lighter and having a lower growth rate than rural males. At the current temperature and mild warming, the predator cue reduced the growth rate, and this independently of urbanization type and latitude of origin. This pattern was reversed during a heat wave in high-latitude damselflies. Our results highlight the context-dependency of evolutionary and plastic responses to urbanization, and caution for generalizing how populations respond to cities based on populations at a single latitude.

Parallel shifts in trout feeding morphology suggest rapid adaptation to alpine lake environments

Eco-evolutionary interactions following ecosystem change provide critical insight into the ability of organisms to adapt to shifting resource landscapes. Here we explore evidence for the rapid parallel evolution of trout feeding morphology following eco-evolutionary interactions with zooplankton in alpine lakes stocked at different points in time in the Wind River Range (Wyoming, USA). In this system, trout predation has altered the zooplankton species community and driven a decrease in average zooplankton size. In some lakes that were stocked decades ago, we find shifts in gill raker traits consistent with the hypothesis that trout have rapidly adapted to exploit available smaller-bodied zooplankton more effectively. We explore this morphological response in multiple lake populations across two species of trout (cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarkii, and golden trout Oncorhynchus aguabonita) and examine the impact of resource availability on morphological variation in gill raker number among lakes. Furthermore, we present genetic data to provide evidence that historically stocked cutthroat trout populations likely derive from multiple population sources, and incorporate variation from genomic relatedness in our exploration of environmental predictors of feeding morphology. These findings describe rapid adaptation and eco-evolutionary interactions in trout and document an evolutionary response to novel, contemporary ecosystem change.

Evidence for ecotone speciation across an African rainforest-savanna gradient

Accelerating climate change and habitat loss make it imperative that plans to conserve biodiversity consider species' ability to adapt to changing environments. However, in biomes where biodiversity is highest, the evolutionary mechanisms responsible for generating adaptative variation and, ultimately, new species are frequently poorly understood. African rainforests represent one such biome, as decadal debates continue concerning the mechanisms generating African rainforest biodiversity. These debates hinge on the relative importance of geographic isolation versus divergent natural selection across environmental gradients. Hindering progress is a lack of robust tests of these competing hypotheses. Because African rainforests are severely at-risk due to climate change and other anthropogenic activities, addressing this long-standing debate is critical for making informed conservation decisions. We use demographic inference and allele frequency-environment relationships to investigate mechanisms of diversification in an African rainforest skink, Trachylepis affinis, a species inhabiting the gradient between rainforest and rainforest-savanna mosaic (ecotone). We provide compelling evidence of ecotone speciation, in which gene flow has all but ceased between rainforest and ecotone populations, at a level consistent with infrequent hybridization between sister species. Parallel patterns of genomic, morphological, and physiological divergence across this environmental gradient and pronounced allele frequency-environment correlation indicate speciation is mostly probably driven by ecological divergence, supporting a central role for divergent natural selection. Our results provide strong evidence for the importance of ecological gradients in African rainforest speciation and inform conservation strategies that preserve the processes that produce and maintain biodiversity.

The role of structural variants in pest adaptation and genome evolution of the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say)

Structural variation has been associated with genetic diversity and adaptation. Despite these observations, it is not clear what their relative importance is for evolution, especially in rapidly adapting species. Here, we examine the significance of structural polymorphisms in pesticide resistance evolution of the agricultural super-pest, the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata. By employing a parent offspring trio sequencing procedure, we develop highly contiguous reference genomes to characterize structural variation. These updated assemblies represent >100-fold improvement of contiguity and include derived pest and ancestral nonpest individuals. We identify >200,000 structural variations, which appear to be nonrandomly distributed across the genome as they co-occur with transposable elements and genes. Structural variations intersect with exons in a large proportion of gene annotations (~20%) that are associated with insecticide resistance (including cytochrome P450s), development, and transcription. To understand the role structural variations play in adaptation, we measure their allele frequencies among an additional 57 individuals using whole genome resequencing data, which represents pest and nonpest populations of North America. Incorporating multiple independent tests to detect the signature of natural selection using SNP data, we identify 14 genes that are probably under positive selection, include structural variations, and SNPs of elevated frequency within the pest lineages. Among these, three are associated with insecticide resistance based on previous research. One of these genes, CYP4g15, is coinduced during insecticide exposure with glycosyltransferase-13, which is a duplicated gene enclosed within a structural variant adjacent to the CYP4g15 genic region. These results demonstrate the significance of structural variations as a genomic feature to describe species history, genetic diversity, and adaptation.

Rapid adaptation in a fast-changing world: Emerging insights from insect genomics

Many researchers have questioned the ability of biota to adapt to rapid anthropogenic environmental shifts. Here, we synthesize emerging genomic evidence for rapid insect evolution in response to human pressure. These new data reveal diverse genomic mechanisms (single locus, polygenic, structural shifts; introgression) underpinning rapid adaptive responses to a variety of anthropogenic selective pressures. While the effects of some human impacts (e.g. pollution; pesticides) have been previously documented, here we highlight startling new evidence for rapid evolutionary responses to additional anthropogenic processes such as deforestation. These recent findings indicate that diverse insect assemblages can indeed respond dynamically to major anthropogenic evolutionary challenges. Our synthesis also emphasizes the critical roles of genomic architecture, standing variation and gene flow in maintaining future adaptive potential. Broadly, it is clear that genomic approaches are essential for predicting, monitoring and responding to ongoing anthropogenic biodiversity shifts in a fast-changing world.

Seasonal plasticity in morphology and metabolism differs between migratory North American and resident Costa Rican monarch butterflies

Environmental heterogeneity in temperate latitudes is expected to maintain seasonally plastic life-history strategies that include the tuning of morphologies and metabolism that support overwintering. For species that have expanded their ranges into tropical latitudes, it is unclear the extent to which the capacity for plasticity will be maintained or will erode with disuse. The migratory generations of the North American (NA) monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus lead distinctly different lives from their summer generation NA parents and their tropical descendants living in Costa Rica (CR). NA migratory monarchs postpone reproduction, travel thousands of kilometers south to overwinter in Mexico, and subsist on little food for months. Whether recently dispersed populations of monarchs such as those in Costa Rica, which are no longer subject to selection imposed by migration, retain ancestral seasonal plasticity is unclear. To investigate the differences in seasonal plasticity, we reared the NA and CR monarchs in summer and autumn in Illinois, USA, and measured the seasonal reaction norms for aspects of morphology and metabolism related to flight. NA monarchs were seasonally plastic in forewing and thorax size, increasing wing area and thorax to body mass ratio in autumn. While CR monarchs increased thorax mass in autumn, they did not increase the area of the forewing. NA monarchs maintained similar resting and maximal flight metabolic rates across seasons. However, CR monarchs had elevated metabolic rates in autumn. Our findings suggest that the recent expansion of monarchs into habitats that support year-round breeding may be accompanied by (1) the loss of some aspects of morphological plasticity as well as (2) the underlying physiological mechanisms that maintain metabolic homeostasis in the face of temperature heterogeneity.

Rapid evolution of unimodal but not of linear thermal performance curves in Daphnia magna

Species may cope with warming through both rapid evolutionary and plastic responses. While thermal performance curves (TPCs), reflecting thermal plasticity, are considered powerful tools to understand the impact of warming on ectotherms, their rapid evolution has been rarely studied for multiple traits. We capitalized on a 2-year experimental evolution trial in outdoor mesocosms that were kept at ambient temperatures or heated 4°C above ambient, by testing in a follow-up common-garden experiment, for rapid evolution of the TPCs for multiple key traits of the water flea Daphnia magna. The heat-selected Daphnia showed evolutionary shifts of the unimodal TPCs for survival, fecundity at first clutch and intrinsic population growth rate toward higher optimum temperatures, and a less pronounced downward curvature indicating a better ability to keep fitness high across a range of high temperatures. We detected no evolution of the linear TPCs for somatic growth, mass and development rate, and for the traits related to energy gain (ingestion rate) and costs (metabolic rate). As a result, also the relative thermal slope of energy gain versus energy costs did not vary. These results suggest the overall (rather than per capita) top-down impact of D. magna may increase under rapid thermal evolution.

Geothermal stickleback populations prefer cool water despite multigenerational exposure to a warm environment

Given the threat of climate change to biodiversity, a growing number of studies are investigating the potential for organisms to adapt to rising temperatures. Earlier work has predicted that physiological adaptation to climate change will be accompanied by a shift in temperature preferences, but empirical evidence for this is lacking. Here, we test whether exposure to different thermal environments has led to changes in preferred temperatures in the wild. Our study takes advantage of a "natural experiment" in Iceland, where freshwater populations of threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) are found in waters warmed by geothermal activity year-round (warm habitats), adjacent to populations in ambient-temperature lakes (cold habitats). We used a shuttle-box approach to measure temperature preferences of wild-caught sticklebacks from three warm-cold population pairs. Our prediction was that fish from warm habitats would prefer higher water temperatures than those from cold habitats. We found no support for this, as fish from both warm and cold habitats had an average preferred temperature of 13°C. Thus, our results challenge the assumption that there will be a shift in ectotherm temperature preferences in response to climate change. In addition, since warm-habitat fish can persist at relatively high temperatures despite a lower-temperature preference, we suggest that preferred temperature alone may be a poor indicator of a population's adaptive potential to a novel thermal environment.

Understanding Local Adaptation to Prepare Populations for Climate Change

Adaptation within species to local environments is widespread in nature. Better understanding this local adaptation is critical to conserving biodiversity. However, conservation practices can rely on species’ trait averages or can broadly assume homogeneity across the range to inform management. Recent methodological advances for studying local adaptation provide the opportunity to fine-tune efforts for managing and conserving species. The implementation of these advances will allow us to better identify populations at greatest risk of decline because of climate change, as well as highlighting possible strategies for improving the likelihood of population persistence amid climate change. In the present article, we review recent advances in the study of local adaptation and highlight ways these tools can be applied in conservation efforts. Cutting-edge tools are available to help better identify and characterize local adaptation. Indeed, increased incorporation of local adaptation in management decisions may help meet the imminent demands of managing species amid a rapidly changing world.

Limited sex differences in plastic responses suggest evolutionary conservatism of thermal reaction norms: A meta-analysis in insects

Temperature has a profound effect on the growth and development of ectothermic animals. However, the extent to which ecologically driven selection pressures can adjust thermal plastic responses in growth schedules is not well understood. Comparing temperature-induced plastic responses between sexes provides a promising but underexploited approach to evaluating the evolvability of thermal reaction norms: males and females share largely the same genes and immature environments but typically experience different ecological selection pressures. We proceed from the idea that substantial sex differences in plastic responses could be interpreted as resulting from sex-specific life-history optimization, whereas similarity among the sexes should rather be seen as evidence of an essential role of physiological constraints. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis of sex-specific thermal responses in insect development times, using data on 161 species with comprehensive phylogenetic and ecological coverage. As a reference for judging the magnitude of sex specificity in thermal plasticity, we compared the magnitude of sex differences in plastic responses to temperature with those in response to diet. We show that sex-specific responses of development times to temperature variation are broadly similar. We also found no strong evidence for sex specificity in thermal responses to depend on the magnitude or direction of sex differences in development time. Sex differences in temperature-induced plastic responses were systematically less pronounced than sex differences in responses induced by variations in larval diet. Our results point to the existence of substantial constraints on the evolvability of thermal reaction norms in insects as the most likely explanation. If confirmed, the low evolvability of thermal response is an essential aspect to consider in predicting evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Genome-wide DNA methylation patterns harbour signatures of hatchling sex and past incubation temperature in a species with environmental sex determination

Conservation of thermally sensitive species depends on monitoring organismal and population-level responses to environmental change in real time. Epigenetic processes are increasingly recognized as key integrators of environmental conditions into developmentally plastic responses, and attendant epigenomic data sets hold potential for revealing cryptic phenotypes relevant to conservation efforts. Here, we demonstrate the utility of genome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns in the face of climate change for a group of especially vulnerable species, those with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Due to their reliance on thermal cues during development to determine sexual fate, contemporary shifts in temperature are predicted to skew offspring sex ratios and ultimately destabilize sensitive populations. Using reduced-representation bisulphite sequencing, we profiled the DNA methylome in blood cells of hatchling American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), a TSD species lacking reliable markers of sexual dimorphism in early life stages. We identified 120 sex-associated differentially methylated cytosines (DMCs; FDR < 0.1) in hatchlings incubated under a range of temperatures, as well as 707 unique temperature-associated DMCs. We further developed DNAm-based models capable of predicting hatchling sex with 100% accuracy (in 20 training samples and four test samples) and past incubation temperature with a mean absolute error of 1.2°C (in four test samples) based on the methylation status of 20 and 24 loci, respectively. Though largely independent of epigenomic patterning occurring in the embryonic gonad during TSD, DNAm patterns in blood cells may serve as nonlethal markers of hatchling sex and past incubation conditions in conservation applications. These findings also raise intriguing questions regarding tissue-specific epigenomic patterning in the context of developmental plasticity.

Bird Communities in a Changing World: The Role of Interspecific Competition

Significant changes in the environment have the potential to affect bird species abundance and distribution, both directly, through a modification of the landscape, habitats, and climate, and indirectly, through a modification of biotic interactions such as competitive interactions. Predicting and mitigating the consequences of global change thus requires not only a sound understanding of the role played by biotic interactions in current ecosystems, but also the recognition and study of the complex and intricate effects that result from the perturbation of these ecosystems. In this review, we emphasize the role of interspecific competition in bird communities by focusing on three main predictions derived from theoretical and empirical considerations. We provide numerous examples of population decline and displacement that appeared to be, at least in part, driven by competition, and were amplified by environmental changes associated with human activities. Beyond a shift in relative species abundance, we show that interspecific competition may have a negative impact on species richness, ecosystem services, and endangered species. Despite these findings, we argue that, in general, the role played by interspecific competition in current communities remains poorly understood due to methodological issues and the complexity of natural communities. Predicting the consequences of global change in these communities is further complicated by uncertainty regarding future environmental conditions and the speed and efficacy of plastic and evolutionary responses to fast-changing environments. Possible directions of future research are highlighted.

The potential for the evolution of thermally sensitive courtship behaviours in the treehopper, Enchenopa binotata

The ability of animals to adapt to warming will depend on the evolutionary potential of thermally sensitive traits. The number of studies measuring the quantitative genetics of a wide variety of thermally sensitive traits has steadily increased; however, no study has yet investigated the quantitative genetics of thermal sensitivity for courtship traits. Since courtship often precedes mating, the ability of these traits to respond to warming may impact reproduction and therefore population persistence. Here, we use classic quantitative genetics breeding design to estimate heritability of various aspects of the thermal sensitivity of courtship behaviours in the treehopper Enchenopa binotata. We generated individual-level thermal courtship activity curves for males and females and measured levels of genetic variation in the thermal sensitivity of courtship activity. We found low heritability with 95% credible intervals that did not approach zero for most traits. Levels of genetic variation were highest in traits describing thermal tolerance. We also found some evidence for genetic correlations between traits within but not across sexes. Together, our results suggest that the range of temperatures over which these treehoppers actively court can evolve, although it remains unclear whether adaptation can happen quickly enough to match the speed of warming.

Genic distribution modelling predicts adaptation of the bank vole to climate change

The most likely pathway for many species to survive future climate change is by pre-existing trait variation providing a fitness advantage under the new climate. Here we evaluate the potential role of haemoglobin (Hb) variation in bank voles under future climate change. We model gene-climate relationships for two functionally distinct Hb types, HbS and HbF, which have a north-south distribution in Britain presenting an unusually tractable system linking genetic variation in physiology to geographical and temporal variation in climate. Projections to future climatic conditions suggest a change in relative climatic suitability that would result in HbS being displaced by HbF in northern Britain. This would facilitate local adaptation to future climate—without Hb displacement, populations in northern Britain would likely be suboptimally adapted because their Hb would not match local climatic conditions. Our study shows how pre-existing physiological differences can influence the adaptive capacity of species to climate change.

Haemoglobin variation in British bank voles combined with climate models predict future regional allelic replacement reflecting capacity for adaptation to climate change.

Environmental factors have a major effect in shaping the gene expression of Siberian larch in the Altai Mountains of China

The differentiation of gene expression is an important link between genotype and phenotype and has important contributions to species adaptation and ecosystem evolution. As a major component of the world's forests, boreal forests play an important role in regulating the global climate, and the phenology of tree species has been and is undergoing changes during global warming. Here, to understand the impact of global warming on gene expression in boreal forest species, we used PacBio and Illumina sequencing methods to study the transcriptome of natural populations of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) from the Altai Mountains in Xinjiang, China. We found that populations in this area had low genetic differentiation, but individuals were genetically clustered together when they had close geographic distance. Environmental factors, especially temperature, dominated differential gene expression of Siberian larch, while the contribution of genetic variation is relatively small. We speculate that Siberian larch adapts to changes in temperature and precipitation by altering its own gene expression. These results not only predict the tolerance of boreal forests to higher temperatures in the future, but also inform forest management strategies under global climate change.

Parasitemia and elevation as predictors of hemoglobin concentration and antioxidant capacity in two sympatric lizards

Studies which quantify the influence of abiotic factors on physiological variation are paramount to comprehend organismal responses to diverse environments. We studied three physiological aspects of metabolism in two sympatric and ecologically similar European lizard species, Podarcis muralis and Iberolacerta horvathi, across an 830-m elevational gradient. We collected blood samples and tail tips from adult lizards, which were analyzed for parasitemia, hemoglobin concentration, potential metabolic activity and catalase activity. Hemoglobin concentration was higher in males than females and it increased across elevation in one of the studied species - P. muralis. Parasitemia was not an important predictor of the variation in hemoglobin concentration, which suggests that blood parasites do not constraint the aerobic capacity of the lizards. On the other hand, catalase activity reflected increased antioxidant activity in the presence of higher parasitemia, possibly acting as an adaptive mechanism to reduce oxidative stress during immune activation. Potential metabolic activity, as a proxy for maximum respiratory enzymatic capacity, did not differ between species or sexes nor was it affected by elevation or levels of parasitemia. The results provide insight into the relationships between physiological, biotic, and environmental traits in sympatric lizards.

Demographic, physiological, and genetic factors linked to the poleward range expansion of the snail Nerita yoldii along the shoreline of China

Species range shift is one of the most significant consequences of climate change in the Anthropocene. A comprehensive study, including demographic, physiological, and genetic factors linked to poleward range expansion, is crucial for understanding how the expanding population occupies the new habitat. In the present study, we investigated the demographic, physiological, and genetic features of the intertidal gastropod Nerita yoldii, which has extended its northern limit by ~200 km over the former biogeographic break of the Yangtze River Estuary during recent decades. The neutral SNPs data showed that the new marginal populations formed a distinct cluster established by a few founders. Demographic modelling analysis revealed that the new marginal populations experienced a strong genetic bottleneck followed by recent demographic expansion. Successful expansion that overcame the founder effect might be attributed to its high capacity of rapid population growth and multiple introductions. According to the non-neutral SNPs under diversifying selection, there were high levels of heterozygosity in the new marginal populations, which might be beneficial for adapting to the novel thermal conditions. The common garden experiment showed that the new marginal populations have evolved divergent transcriptomic and physiological responses to heat stress, allowing them to occupy and survive in the novel environment. Lower transcriptional plasticity was observed in the new marginal populations. These results suggest a new biogeographic pattern of N. yoldii has formed with the occurrence of demographic, physiologic, and genetic changes, and emphasize the roles of adaptation of marginal populations during range expansion.

Gene expression studies of plastic and evolutionary responses to global warming

Phenotypic plasticity can be a rapid response for coping with global warming, yet may be insufficient to protect species from extinction. Evolutionary adaptation may reinforce adaptive or oppose maladaptive plastic responses. With advances in technology whole transcriptomes can provide us with an unprecedented overview of genes and functional processes underlying the interplay between plasticity and evolution. We advocate that insects provide ideal opportunities to study plasticity in non-adapted and thermally adapted populations to infer reaction norms across the whole transcriptome ('reactionomes'). This can advance our understanding of how the interplay between plasticity and evolution shapes responses to warming. So far, a limited number of studies suggest predominantly maladaptive plastic responses to novel environments that are reduced with time, but much more research is needed to infer general patterns.

Near-future extreme temperatures affect physiology, morphology and recruitment of the temperate sponge Crella incrustans

Current rates of greenhouse gas emissions are leading to a rapid increase in global temperatures and a greater occurrence of extreme climatic events such as marine heatwaves. In this study, we assessed the effects of thermal conditions predicted to occur within the next 40 years (SSP3-7.0 scenario of IPCC, 2021) on the respiration rate, buoyant weight, morphology and recruitment of the temperate model sponge Crella incrustans. Under predicted average temperatures (+ 2.5 °C, over the local mean), C. incrustans did not show any physiological and morphological changes compared to current conditions. However, when exposed to a simulated marine heatwave (16 days duration and a thermal peak at 22 °C), there was a large increase in sponge respiration rate, significant weight loss resulting from tissue regression, and sponge mortality. The simulated marine heatwave resulted also in a shorter period of recruitment, lower recruitment rate and higher mortality of settlers. Despite the tissue regression, the majority of sponges that survived the extreme temperatures showed respiration rates similar to controls 13 days after the thermal peak, indicating some resilience of C. incrustans to extreme thermal events. Our study shows that marine heatwaves will significantly impact the physiology, morphology, and recruitment of temperate sponges under near-future conditions, but that these sponges are likely to persist in warmer oceans.

Mosaics of climatic stress across species' ranges: tradeoffs cause adaptive evolution to limits of climatic tolerance

Studies in birds and trees show climatic stresses distributed across species' ranges, not only at range limits. Here, new analyses from the butterfly Euphydryas editha reveal mechanisms generating these stresses: geographic mosaics of natural selection, acting on tradeoffs between climate adaptation and fitness traits, cause some range-central populations to evolve to limits of climatic tolerance, while others remain resilient. In one ecotype, selection for predator avoidance drives evolution to limits of thermal tolerance. In a second ecotype, the endangered Bay Checkerspot, selection on fecundity drives evolution to the climate-sensitive limit of ability to complete development within the lifespans of ephemeral hosts, causing routinely high mortality from insect–host phenological asynchrony. The tradeoff between maternal fecundity and offspring mortality generated similar values of fitness on different dates, partly explaining why fecundity varied by more than an order of magnitude. Evolutionary response to the tradeoff rendered climatic variability the main driver of Bay Checkerspot dynamics, and increases in this variability, associated with climate change, were a key factor behind permanent extinction of a protected metapopulation. Finally, we discuss implications for conservation planning of our finding that adaptive evolution can reduce population-level resilience to climate change and generate geographic mosaics of climatic stress.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

A prenatal acoustic signal of heat affects thermoregulation capacities at adulthood in an arid-adapted bird

Understanding animal physiological adaptations for tolerating heat, and the causes of inter-individual variation, is key for predicting climate change impacts on biodiversity. Recently, a novel mechanism for transgenerational heat adaptation was identified in a desert-adapted bird, where parents acoustically signal hot conditions to embryos. Prenatal exposure to “heat-calls” adaptively alters zebra finch development and their thermal preferences in adulthood, suggesting a long-term shift towards a heat-adapted phenotype. However, whether such acoustic experience improves long-term thermoregulatory capacities is unknown. We measured metabolic rate (MR), evaporative water loss (EWL) and body temperature in adults exposed to a stepped profile of progressively higher air temperatures (T_a) between 27 and 44 °C. Remarkably, prenatal acoustic experience affected heat tolerance at adulthood, with heat-call exposed individuals more likely to reach the highest T_a in morning trials. This was despite MR and EWL reaching higher levels at the highest T_a in heat-call individuals, partly driven by a stronger metabolic effect of moderate activity. At lower T_a, however, heat-call exposed individuals had greater relative water economy, as expected. They also better recovered mass lost during morning trials. We therefore provide the first evidence that prenatal acoustic signals have long-term consequences for heat tolerance and physiological adaptation to heat.

Thermal-metabolic phenotypes of the lizard Podarcis muralis differ across elevation, but converge in high-elevation hypoxia

In response to a warming climate, many montane species are shifting upslope to track the emergence of preferred temperatures. Characterizing patterns of variation in metabolic, physiological and thermal traits along an elevational gradient, and the plastic potential of these traits, is necessary to understand current and future responses to abiotic constraints at high elevations, including limited oxygen availability. We performed a transplant experiment with the upslope-colonizing common wall lizard (Podarcis muralis) in which we measured nine aspects of thermal physiology and aerobic capacity in lizards from replicate low- (400 m above sea level, ASL) and high-elevation (1700 m ASL) populations. We first measured traits at their elevation of origin and then transplanted half of each group to extreme high elevation (2900 m ASL; above the current elevational range limit of this species), where oxygen availability is reduced by ∼25% relative to sea level. After 3 weeks of acclimation, we again measured these traits in both the transplanted and control groups. The multivariate thermal-metabolic phenotypes of lizards originating from different elevations differed clearly when measured at the elevation of origin. For example, high-elevation lizards are more heat tolerant than their low-elevation counterparts (counter-gradient variation). Yet, these phenotypes converged after exposure to reduced oxygen availability at extreme high elevation, suggesting limited plastic responses under this novel constraint. Our results suggest that high-elevation populations are well suited to their oxygen environments, but that plasticity in the thermal-metabolic phenotype does not pre-adapt these populations to colonize more hypoxic environments at higher elevations.

Evolution of Thermal Sensitivity in Changing and Variable Climates

Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments.

Genetic variation for upper thermal tolerance diminishes within and between populations with increasing acclimation temperature in Atlantic salmon

Populations may counteract lasting temperature changes or recurrent extremes through plasticity or adaptation. However, it remains underexplored how outbreeding, either naturally, unintentionally, or facilitated, may modify a local response potential and whether genotype-by-environment interactions or between-trait correlations can restrict this potential. We quantified population differences and outbreeding effects, within-population genetic variation, and plasticity of these, for thermal performance proxy traits using 32 pedigreed wild, domesticated, and wild-domesticated Atlantic salmon families reared under common-garden conditions. Following exposure to ambient cold (11.6 °C) or ~4° and ~8° warmer summer temperatures, populations differed notably for body length and critical thermal maximum (CT_max) and for thermal plasticity of length, condition, and CT_max, but not for haematocrit. Line-cross analysis suggested mostly additive and some dominant outbreeding effects on means and solely additive outbreeding effects on plasticity. Heritability was detected for all traits. However, with increasing acclimation temperature, differences in CT_max between populations and CT_max heritability diminished, and CT_max breeding values re-ranked. Furthermore, CT_max and body size were negatively correlated at the genetic and phenotypic levels, and there was indirect evidence for a positive correlation between growth potential and thermal performance breadth for growth. Thus, population differences (including those between wild and domesticated populations) in thermal performance and plasticity may present a genetic resource in addition to the within-population genetic variance to facilitate, or impede, thermal adaptation. However, unfavourable genotype-by-environment interactions and negative between-trait correlations may generally hamper joint evolution in response to an increase in average temperature and temporary extremes.

Linking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization

Microbial communities regulate ecosystem responses to climate change. However, predicting these responses is challenging because of complex interactions among processes at multiple levels of organization. Organismal traits that determine individual performance and ecological interactions are essential for scaling up environmental responses from individuals to ecosystems. We combine protist microcosm experiments and mathematical models to show that key traits-cell size, shape, and contents-each explain different aspects of species' demographic responses to changes in temperature. These differences in species' temperature responses have complex cascading effects across levels of organization-causing nonlinear shifts in total community respiration rates across temperatures via coordinated changes in community composition, equilibrium densities, and community-mean species mass in experimental protist communities that tightly match theoretical predictions. Our results suggest that traits explain variation in population growth, and together, these two factors scale up to influence community- and ecosystem-level processes across temperatures. Connecting the multilevel microbial processes that ultimately influence climate in this way will help refine predictions about complex ecosystem-climate feedbacks and the pace of climate change itself.

Human-mediated impacts on biodiversity and the consequences for zoonotic disease spillover

Human-mediated changes to natural ecosystems have consequences for both ecosystem and human health. Historically, efforts to preserve or restore 'biodiversity' can seem to be in opposition to human interests. However, the integration of biodiversity conservation and public health has gained significant traction in recent years, and new efforts to identify solutions that benefit both environmental and human health are ongoing. At the forefront of these efforts is an attempt to clarify ways in which biodiversity conservation can help reduce the risk of zoonotic spillover of pathogens from wild animals, sparking epidemics and pandemics in humans and livestock. However, our understanding of the mechanisms by which biodiversity change influences the spillover process is incomplete, limiting the application of integrated strategies aimed at achieving positive outcomes for both conservation and disease management. Here, we review the literature, considering a broad scope of biodiversity dimensions, to identify cases where zoonotic pathogen spillover is mechanistically linked to changes in biodiversity. By reframing the discussion around biodiversity and disease using mechanistic evidence - while encompassing multiple aspects of biodiversity including functional diversity, landscape diversity, phenological diversity, and interaction diversity - we work toward general principles that can guide future research and more effectively integrate the related goals of biodiversity conservation and spillover prevention. We conclude by summarizing how these principles could be used to integrate the goal of spillover prevention into ongoing biodiversity conservation initiatives.

Rapid microgeographic evolution in response to climate change

Environmental change is predicted to accelerate into the future and will exert strong selection pressure on biota. Although many species may be fated to extinction, others may survive through their capacity to evolve rapidly at highly localized (i.e., microgeographic) scales. Yet, even as new examples have been discovered, the limits to such evolutionary responses have not often been evaluated. One of the first examples of microgeographic variation involved pond populations of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica). Although separated by just tens to hundreds of meters, these populations exhibited countergradient variation in intrinsic embryonic development rates when reared in a common garden. We repeated this experiment 17 years (approximately six to nine generations) later and found that microgeographic variation persists in contemporary populations. Furthermore, we found that contemporary embryos have evolved to develop 14-19% faster than those in 2001. Structural equation models indicate that the predominant cause for this response is likely due to changes in climate over the intervening 17 years. Despite potential for rapid and fine-scale evolution, demographic declines in populations experiencing the greatest changes in climate and habitat imply a limit to the species' ability to mitigate extreme environmental change.

Anthropogenic evolution in an insect wing polymorphism following widespread deforestation

Anthropogenic environmental change can underpin major shifts in natural selective regimes, and can thus alter the evolutionary trajectories of wild populations. However, little is known about the evolutionary impacts of deforestation-one of the most pervasive human-driven changes to terrestrial ecosystems globally. Absence of forest cover (i.e. exposure) has been suggested to play a role in selecting for insect flightlessness in montane ecosystems. Here, we capitalize on human-driven variation in alpine treeline elevation in New Zealand to test whether anthropogenic deforestation has caused shifts in the distributions of flight-capable and flightless phenotypes in a wing-polymorphic lineage of stoneflies from the Zelandoperla fenestrata species complex. Transect sampling revealed sharp transitions from flight-capable to flightless populations with increasing elevation. However, these phenotypic transitions were consistently delineated by the elevation of local treelines, rather than by absolute elevation, providing a novel example of human-driven evolution in response to recent deforestation. The inferred rapid shifts to flightlessness in newly deforested regions have implications for the evolution and conservation of invertebrate biodiversity.

Differential Tolerance and Seasonal Adaptation to Temperature and Salinity Stress at a Dynamic Range Boundary Between Estuarine Gastropods

AbstractInsight into how coastal organisms will respond to changing temperature and salinity regimes may be derived from studies of adaptation to fluctuating estuarine environments, especially under stressful range-edge conditions. We characterized a dynamic range boundary between two estuarine sea slugs, Alderia modesta (distributed across the North Pacific and North Atlantic) and Alderia willowi, known from southern and central California. The species overlap from Bodega Bay to San Francisco Bay, where populations are dominated by A. modesta after winter rains but by A. willowi after peak summer temperatures. Laboratory assays confirmed superior tolerance to low salinity for the northern species, A. modesta: encapsulated embryos developed at 8 ppt, larvae survived at 4-6 ppt, and adults survived repeated exposure to 2 ppt, salinities that reduced development or survival for the same stages of A. willowi. Adults did not appreciably differ in their high-temperature threshold, however. Each species showed increased tolerance to either temperature or salinity stress at its range margin, indicating plasticity or local adaptation, but at the cost of reduced tolerance to the other stressor. At its northern limit, A. willowi became more tolerant of low salinity during the winter rainy season, but also less heat tolerant. Conversely, A. modesta became more heat resistant from spring to summer at its southern limit, but less tolerant of low salinity. Trade-offs in stress tolerance may generally constrain adaptation and limit biotic response to a rapidly changing environment, as well as differentiating species niches.

Introduction to the special issue-Beyond CTMAX and CTMIN : Advances in studying the thermal limits of reptiles and amphibians

Two themes emerging from the special issue "Beyond CT_MAX and CT_MIN : Advances in Studying the Thermal Limits of Reptiles and Amphibians" are: (1) the need to identify mechanisms that determine the shape of thermal performance curves and (2) how these curves can be best used predictively.