Climatic constraints on the biogeographic history of Mesozoic dinosaurs

Accounting for sampling heterogeneity suggests a low paleolatitude origin for dinosaurs

Dinosaurs dominated Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems for ∼160 million years, but their biogeographic origin remains poorly understood. The earliest unequivocal dinosaur fossils appear in the Carnian (∼230 Ma) of southern South America and Africa, leading most authors to propose southwestern Gondwana as the likely center of origin. However, the high taxonomic and morphological diversity of these earliest assemblages suggests a more ancient evolutionary history that is currently unsampled. Phylogenetic uncertainty at the base of Dinosauria, combined with the subsequent appearance of dinosaurs throughout Laurasia in their early evolutionary history, further complicates this picture. Here, we estimate the distribution of early dinosaurs and their archosaurian relatives under a phylogenetic maximum likelihood framework, testing alternative topological arrangements and incorporating potential abiotic barriers to dispersal into our biogeographic models. For the first time, we include spatiotemporal sampling heterogeneity in these models, which frequently supports a low-latitude Gondwanan origin for dinosaurs. These results are best supported when silesaurids are constrained as early-diverging ornithischians, which is likely because this topology accounts for the otherwise substantial ornithischian ghost lineage, explaining the group's absence from the fossil record prior to the Early Jurassic. Our results suggest that the archosaur radiation also took place within low-latitude Gondwana following the end-Permian extinction before lineages dispersed across Pangaea into ecologically and climatically distinct provinces during the Late Triassic. Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrates are under-sampled at low paleolatitudes, and our findings suggest that heterogeneous sampling has hitherto obscured the true paleobiogeographic origin of dinosaurs and their kin.

The spatiotemporal distribution of Mesozoic dinosaur diversity

Much of our view on Mesozoic dinosaur diversity is obscured by biases in the fossil record. In particular, spatiotemporal sampling heterogeneity affects identification of the timing and geographical location of radiations, the recognition of the latitudinal diversity gradient, as well as interpretation of purported extinctions, faunal turnovers and their drivers, including the Early Jurassic Jenkyns Event and across the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary. The current distribution of sampling means it is impossible to robustly determine whether these 'events' were globally synchronous and geologically instantaneous or spatiotemporally staggered. Accounting for sampling heterogeneity is also paramount to reconciling notable differences in results based on sampling-standardized dinosaur species richness versus reconstructions of diversification rates, particularly with regards to the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction. Incorporation of a greater proportion of stratigraphically well-resolved dinosaurs into analyses is also imperative and must include the substantial Mesozoic radiation of birds. Given the relative rarity of temporally successive, well-sampled spatial windows, it remains possible that dinosaur species richness and diversification rate showed little change after the clade's initial radiation until the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. However, better understanding of underlying sampling, combined with a holistic approach to reconstructing dinosaur diversity and diversification, is an important step in testing this hypothesis.

The macroecology of Mesozoic dinosaurs

Dinosaurs thrived for over 160 million years in Mesozoic ecosystems, displaying diverse ecological and evolutionary adaptations. Their ecology was shaped by large-scale climatic and biogeographic changes, calling for a 'deep-time' macroecological investigation. These factors include temperature fluctuations and the break up of Pangaea, influencing species richness, ecological diversity and biogeographic history. Recent improvements in the dinosaur fossil record have enabled large-scale studies of their responses to tectonic, geographic and climatic shifts. Trends in species diversity, body size and reproductive traits can now be analysed using quantitative approaches like phylogenetic comparative methods, machine learning and Bayesian inference. These patterns sometimes align with, but also deviate from, first-order macroecological rules (e.g. species-area relationship, latitudinal biodiversity gradient, Bergmann's rule). Accurate reconstructions of palaeobiodiversity and niche partitioning require ongoing taxonomic revisions and detailed anatomical descriptions. Interdisciplinary research combining sedimentology, geochemistry and palaeoclimatology helps uncover the environmental conditions driving dinosaur adaptations. Fieldwork in under-sampled regions, particularly at latitudinal extremes, is crucial for understanding the spatial heterogeneity of dinosaur ecosystems across the planet. Open science initiatives and online databases play a key role in advancing this field, enriching our understanding of deep-time ecological processes, and offering new insights into dinosaur macroecology and its broader implications.

A brief review of non-avian dinosaur biogeography: state-of-the-art and prospectus

Dinosaurs potentially originated in the mid-palaeolatitudes of Gondwana 245-235 million years ago (Ma) and may have been restricted to cooler, humid areas by low-latitude arid zones until climatic amelioration made northern dispersals feasible ca 215 Ma. However, this scenario is challenged by new Carnian Laurasian fossils and evidence that even the earliest dinosaurs had adaptations for arid conditions. After becoming globally distributed in the Early-Middle Jurassic (200-160 Ma), dinosaurs experienced vicariance driven by Pangaean fragmentation. Regional extinctions and trans-oceanic dispersals also played a role, and the formation of ephemeral land connections meant that older vicariance patterns were repeatedly overprinted by younger ones, creating a reticulate biogeographic history. Palaeoclimates shaped dispersal barriers and corridors, including filters that had differential effects on different types of dinosaurs. Dinosaurian biogeographic research faces many challenges, not the least of which is the patchiness of the fossil record. However, new fossils, extensive databasing and improved analytical methods help distinguish signal from noise and generate fresh perspectives. In the future, developing techniques for quantifying and ameliorating sampling biases and modelling the dispersal capacities of dinosaurs are likely to be two of the key components in our modern research programme.

Early Jurassic origin of avian endothermy and thermophysiological diversity in dinosaurs

A fundamental question in dinosaur evolution is how they adapted to long-term climatic shifts during the Mesozoic and when they developed environmentally independent, avian-style acclimatization, becoming endothermic.1,2 The ability of warm-blooded dinosaurs to flourish in harsher environments, including cold, high-latitude regions,3,4 raises intriguing questions about the origins of key innovations shared with modern birds,5,6 indicating that the development of homeothermy (keeping constant body temperature) and endothermy (generating body heat) played a crucial role in their ecological diversification.7 Despite substantial evidence across scientific disciplines (anatomy,8 reproduction,9 energetics,10 biomechanics,10 osteohistology,11 palaeobiogeography,12 geochemistry,13,14 and soft tissues15,16,17), a consensus on dinosaur thermophysiology remains elusive.1,12,15,17,18,19 Differential thermophysiological strategies among terrestrial tetrapods allow endotherms (birds and mammals) to expand their latitudinal range (from the tropics to polar regions), owing to their reduced reliance on environmental temperature.20 By contrast, most reptilian lineages (squamates, turtles, and crocodilians) and amphibians are predominantly constrained by temperature in regions closer to the tropics.21 Determining when this macroecological pattern emerged in the avian lineage relies heavily on identifying the origin of these key physiological traits. Combining fossils with macroevolutionary and palaeoclimatic models, we unveil distinct evolutionary pathways in the main dinosaur lineages: ornithischians and theropods diversified across broader climatic landscapes, trending toward cooler niches. An Early Jurassic shift to colder climates in Theropoda suggests an early adoption of endothermy. Conversely, sauropodomorphs exhibited prolonged climatic conservatism associated with higher thermal conditions, emphasizing temperature, rather than plant productivity, as the primary driver of this pattern, suggesting poikilothermy with a stronger dependence on higher temperatures in sauropods.

Global latitudinal gradients and the evolution of body size in dinosaurs and mammals

Global climate patterns fundamentally shape the distribution of species and ecosystems. For example, Bergmann's rule predicts that homeothermic animals, including birds and mammals, inhabiting cooler climates are generally larger than close relatives from warmer climates. The modern world, however, lacks the comparative data needed to evaluate such macroecological rules rigorously. Here, we test for Bergmann's rule in Mesozoic dinosaurs and mammaliaforms that radiated within relatively temperate global climate regimes. We develop a phylogenetic model that accounts for biases in the fossil record and allows for variable evolutionary dispersal rates. Our analysis also includes new fossil data from the extreme high-latitude Late Cretaceous Arctic Prince Creek Formation. We find no evidence for Bergmann's rule in Mesozoic dinosaurs or mammaliaforms, the ancestors of extant homeothermic birds and mammals. When our model is applied to thousands of extant dinosaur (bird) and mammal species, we find that body size evolution remains independent of latitude. A modest temperature effect is found in extant, but not in Mesozoic, birds, suggesting that body size evolution in modern birds was influenced by Bergmann's rule during Cenozoic climatic change. Our study provides a general approach for studying macroecological rules, highlighting the fossil record's power to address longstanding ecological principles.

Neuroanatomy of the late Cretaceous Thescelosaurus neglectus (Neornithischia: Thescelosauridae) reveals novel ecological specialisations within Dinosauria

Ornithischian dinosaurs exhibited a diversity of ecologies, locomotory modes, and social structures, making them an ideal clade in which to study the evolution of neuroanatomy and behaviour. Here, we present a 3D digital reconstruction of the endocranial spaces of the latest Cretaceous neornithischian Thescelosaurus neglectus, in order to interpret the neuroanatomy and paleobiology of one of the last surviving non-avian dinosaurs. Results demonstrate that the brain of Thescelosaurus was relatively small compared to most other neornithischians, instead suggesting cognitive capabilities within the range of extant reptiles. Other traits include a narrow hearing range, with limited ability to distinguish high frequencies, paired with unusually well-developed olfactory lobes and anterior semicircular canals, indicating acute olfaction and vestibular sensitivity. This character combination, in conjunction with features of the postcranial anatomy, is consistent with specializations for burrowing behaviours in the clade, as evidenced by trace and skeletal fossil evidence in earlier-diverging thescelosaurids, although whether they reflect ecological adaptations or phylogenetic inheritance in T. neglectus itself is unclear. Nonetheless, our results provide the first evidence of neurological specializations to burrowing identified within Ornithischia, and non-avian dinosaurs more generally, expanding the range of ecological adaptations recognized within this major clade.

"Dragons" on the landscape: Modeling the abundance of large carnivorous dinosaurs of the Upper Jurassic Morrison Formation (USA) and the Upper Cretaceous Dinosaur Park Formation (Canada)

Counts of the number of skeletal specimens of "adult" megaherbivores and large theropods from the Morrison and Dinosaur Park formations-if not biased by taphonomic artifacts-suggest that the big meat-eaters were more abundant, relative to the number of big plant-eaters, than one would expect on the basis of the relative abundance of large carnivores and herbivores in modern mammalian faunas. Models of megaherbivore population density (number of individuals per square kilometer) that attempt to take into account ecosystem productivity, the size structure of megaherbivore populations, and individual megaherbivore energy requirements, when combined with values of the large theropod/megaherbivore abundance ratio, suggest that large theropods may have been more abundant on the landscape than estimates extrapolated from the population density versus body mass relationship of mammalian carnivores. Models of the meat production of megaherbivore populations and the meat requirements of "adult" large theropods suggest that herbivore productivity would have been insufficient to support the associated number of individuals of "adult" large theropods, unless the herbivore production/biomass ratio was substantially higher, and/or the large theropod meat requirement markedly lower, than expectations based on modern mammals. Alternatively, or in addition to one or both of these other factors, large theropods likely included dinosaurs other than megaherbivores as significant components of their diet.

The earliest Ethiopian wolf: implications for the species evolution and its future survival

In 2017, a hemimandible (MW5-B208), corresponding to the Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis), was found in a stratigraphically-controlled and radio-isotopically-dated sequence of the Melka Wakena paleoanthropological site-complex, on the Southeastern Ethiopian Highlands, ~ 2300 m above sea level. The specimen is the first and unique Pleistocene fossil of this species. Our data provide an unambiguous minimum age of 1.6-1.4 Ma for the species' presence in Africa and constitutes the first empirical evidence that supports molecular interpretations. Currently, C. simensis is one of the most endangered carnivore species of Africa. Bioclimate niche modeling applied to the time frame indicated by the fossil suggests that the lineage of the Ethiopian wolf faced severe survival challenges in the past, with consecutive drastic geographic range contractions during warmer periods. These models help to describe future scenarios for the survival of the species. Projections ranging from most pessimistic to most optimistic future climatic scenarios indicate significant reduction of the already-deteriorating territories suitable for the Ethiopian Wolf, increasing the threat to the specie's future survival. Additionally, the recovery of the Melka Wakena fossil underscores the importance of work outside the East African Rift System in research of early human origins and associated biodiversity on the African continent.

Climatic controls on the ecological ascendancy of dinosaurs

The ascendancy of dinosaurs to become dominant components of terrestrial ecosystems was a pivotal event in the history of life, yet the drivers of their early evolution and biodiversity are poorly understood.^1,2,3 During their early diversification in the Late Triassic, dinosaurs were initially rare and geographically restricted, only attaining wider distributions and greater abundance following the end-Triassic mass extinction event.^4,5,6 This pattern is consistent with an opportunistic expansion model, initiated by the extinction of co-occurring groups such as aetosaurs, rauisuchians, and therapsids.^4,7,8 However, this pattern could instead be a response to changes in global climatic distributions through the Triassic to Jurassic transition, especially given the increasing evidence that climate played a key role in constraining Triassic dinosaur distributions.^{7,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16} Here, we test this hypothesis and elucidate how climate influenced early dinosaur distribution by quantitatively examining changes in dinosaur and tetrapod "climatic niche space" across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary. Statistical analyses show that Late Triassic sauropodomorph dinosaurs occupied a more restricted climatic niche space than other tetrapods and dinosaurs, being excluded from the hottest, low-latitude climate zones. A subsequent, earliest Jurassic expansion of sauropodomorph geographic distribution is linked to the expansion of their preferred climatic conditions. Evolutionary model-fitting analyses provide evidence for an important evolutionary shift from cooler to warmer climatic niches during the origin of Sauropoda. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that global abundance of sauropodomorph dinosaurs was facilitated by climatic change and provide support for the key role of climate in the ascendancy of dinosaurs.

100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5-23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.

The hierarchy of factors predicting the latitudinal diversity gradient

The numerous explanations for why Earth's biodiversity is concentrated at low latitudes fail to explain variation in the strength and even direction of the gradient through deep time. Consequently, we do not know if today's gradient is representative of what might be expected on other planets or is merely an idiosyncrasy of Earth's history. We propose a hierarchy of factors driving the latitudinal distribution of diversity: (i) over geologically long time spans, diversity is largely predicted by climate; (ii) when climatic gradients are shallow, diversity tracks habitat area; and (iii) historical contingencies linked to niche conservatism have geologically short-term, transient influence at most. Thus, latitudinal diversity gradients, although variable in strength and direction, are largely predictable on our planet and possibly others.

Shifts in food webs and niche stability shaped survivorship and extinction at the end-Cretaceous

It has long been debated why groups such as non-avian dinosaurs became extinct whereas mammals and other lineages survived the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction 66 million years ago. We used Markov networks, ecological niche partitioning, and Earth System models to reconstruct North American food webs and simulate ecospace occupancy before and after the extinction event. We find a shift in latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas, as medium-sized species counterbalanced a loss of megaherbivores, but dinosaur niches were otherwise stable and static, potentially contributing to their demise. Smaller vertebrates, including mammals, followed a consistent trajectory of increasing trophic impact and relaxation of niche limits beginning in the latest Cretaceous and continuing after the mass extinction. Mammals did not simply proliferate after the extinction event; rather, their earlier ecological diversification might have helped them survive.

Scleromochlus and the early evolution of Pterosauromorpha

Pterosaurs, the first vertebrates to evolve powered flight, were key components of Mesozoic terrestrial ecosystems from their sudden appearance in the Late Triassic until their demise at the end of the Cretaceous^1-6. However, the origin and early evolution of pterosaurs are poorly understood owing to a substantial stratigraphic and morphological gap between these reptiles and their closest relatives⁶, Lagerpetidae⁷. Scleromochlus taylori, a tiny reptile from the early Late Triassic of Scotland discovered over a century ago, was hypothesized to be a key taxon closely related to pterosaurs⁸, but its poor preservation has limited previous studies and resulted in controversy over its phylogenetic position, with some even doubting its identification as an archosaur⁹. Here we use microcomputed tomographic scans to provide the first accurate whole-skeletal reconstruction and a revised diagnosis of Scleromochlus, revealing new anatomical details that conclusively identify it as a close pterosaur relative¹ within Pterosauromorpha (the lagerpetid + pterosaur clade). Scleromochlus is anatomically more similar to lagerpetids than to pterosaurs and retains numerous features that were probably present in very early diverging members of Avemetatarsalia (bird-line archosaurs). These results support the hypothesis that the first flying reptiles evolved from tiny, probably facultatively bipedal, cursorial ancestors¹.