The Introduction of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis and Oral Polio Vaccine Among Young Infants in an Urban African Community: A Natural Experiment

Implications of vaccine non-specific effects on licensure of new vaccines

Immune memory was for a long time thought to be an exclusive feature of the adaptive immune system. Emerging evidence has shown that the innate immune system may exhibit memory which has been termed as trained immunity or innate immune memory. Trained immunity following vaccination may produce non-specific effects leading to reduction in morbidity and mortality from heterologous pathogens. This review looked at trained immunity as a mechanism for vaccine induced non-specific effects, mechanisms underlying trained immunity and known vaccine non-specific effects. A discussion is also made on the implications these vaccine non-specific effects may have on overall risk-benefit ratio evaluation by National Medicines Regulatory Authorities (NMRAs) during licensure of new vaccines. Epigenetic remodeling and "rewiring" of cellular metabolism in the innate immune cells especially monocytes, macrophages, and Natural Killer (NK) cells have been suggested to be the mechanisms underlying trained immunity. Trained immunity in other innate cells has largely remained elusive up to date. Non-specific effects have been extensively documented with Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG), measles vaccine and oral polio vaccine but it remains unclear if other vaccines may exhibit similar effects. All known vaccine non-specific effects have come from observations in epidemiological studies conducted post-vaccine licensure and roll out in target populations. It remains to be seen if early identification of non-specific effects especially those with protective benefits during the clinical development of new vaccines may contribute to the overall risk-benefit ratio evaluation during licensure by NMRAs.

Do vaccines increase or decrease susceptibility to diseases other than those they protect against?

Contrary to the long-held belief that the effects of vaccines are specific for the disease they were created; compelling evidence has demonstrated that vaccines can exert positive or deleterious non-specific effects (NSEs). In this review, we compiled research reports from the last 40 years, which were found based on the PubMed search for the epidemiological and immunological studies on the non-specific effects (NSEs) of the most common human vaccines. Analysis of information showed that live vaccines induce positive NSEs, whereas non-live vaccines induce several negative NSEs, including increased female mortality associated with enhanced susceptibility to other infectious diseases, especially in developing countries. These negative NSEs are determined by the vaccination sequence, the antigen concentration in vaccines, the type of vaccine used (live vs. non-live), and also by repeated vaccination. We do not recommend stopping using non-live vaccines, as they have demonstrated to protect against their target disease, so the suggestion is that their detrimental NSEs can be minimized simply by changing the current vaccination sequence. High IgG4 antibody levels generated in response to repeated inoculation with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines could be associated with a higher mortality rate from unrelated diseases and infections by suppressing the immune system. Since most COVID-19 vaccinated countries are reporting high percentages of excess mortality not directly attributable to deaths from such disease, the NSEs of mRNA vaccines on overall mortality should be studied in depth.

Do Pentavalent (DTwP-Hib-HBV) vaccines have sex-differential nonspecific effects? An observational study

Vaccines may alter the ability to combat infections unrelated to the target disease, i.e. have "nonspecific effects." The non-live Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis vaccine (DTP) has been associated with increased child mortality, especially for females. In 2008, the DTP-containing Pentavalent vaccine replaced DTP vaccine in Guinea-Bissau. We investigate female relative to male mortality after Penta vaccination. In Guinea-Bissau, Bandim Health Project (BHP) registered children's vaccination and vital status at biannual village visits and provided vaccines. Among children Penta-vaccinated by BHP, we compared mortality of males and females in Cox proportional hazards models. Children aged 6 weeks to 8 months entered the analysis at the date of vaccination and were followed for up to 6 months. Between September 2008 and December 2017, 33,989 children aged 6 weeks to 8 months were under surveillance. Of these 12,753 (females: 6,363; males: 6,390) received Penta by the BHP and entered the study contributing with 19,667 observations. The mortality rate following Penta vaccination was 25.2 per 1,000 person years for females and 26.6 for males, resulting in an adjusted Female/Male mortality rate ratio of (F/M aMRR) 1.01 (0.82-1.25). The association between sex and mortality differed by timeliness of vaccination, F/M aMRR: 0.62 (0.41-0.93) for children vaccinated below median age, and F/M aMRR: 1.38 (0.90-2.13) for children vaccinated above median age. We did not find higher overall mortality in females than males after Penta vaccination. Our findings suggest that mortality differences between males and females following Penta vaccination may depend on timeliness of Penta vaccination.

Non-specific effects of Pneumococcal and Haemophilus vaccines in children aged 5 years and under: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine the evidence for non-specific effects of the Pneumococcal and Haemophilus influenza vaccine in children aged 5 years and under.

DATA SOURCES

A key word literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the European Union Clinical Trials Register and ClinicalTrials.gov up to June 2023.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCT or cohort studies.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged 5 or under.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

Studies were independently screened by two reviewers, with a third where disagreement arose. Risk of bias assessment was performed by one reviewer and confirmed by a second. Results were tabulated and a narrative description performed.

RESULTS

Four articles were identified and included in this review. We found a reduction in hospitalisations from influenza A (44%), pulmonary tuberculosis (42%), metapneumovirus (45%), parainfluenza virus type 1-3 (44%), along with reductions in mortality associated with pneumococcal vaccine. No data on the Haemophilus vaccine was found.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

In this systematic review, we demonstrate that there is a reduction in particular viral infections in children aged 5 years and under who received the 9-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine which differ from those for which the vaccine was designed to protect against. While limited studies have demonstrated a reduction in infections other than those which the vaccine was designed to protect against, substantial clinical trials are required to solidify these findings.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020146640.

Neonatal, Infant, and Under Age Five Vaccine Doses Routinely Given in Developed Nations and Their Association With Mortality Rates

Introduction In 2011, using 2009 data, we published a study demonstrating that among the most highly developed nations, those requiring the most vaccine doses for their infants tended to have the least favorable infant mortality rates (r = 0.70, p < .0001). Twelve years later, we replicated our original study using 2019 data. Linear regression analysis corroborated the positive trend reported in our initial paper (r = 0.45; p < .002). Herein, we broaden our analyses to consider the effect of vaccines on neonatal and under age five mortality rates.  Objective We performed several investigations to explore potential relationships between the number of early childhood vaccine doses required by nations and their neonatal, infant, and under age five mortality rates. Methods In this ecological study, we conducted linear regression analyses of neonatal, infant, and under age five vaccine doses required by nations and their neonatal, infant, and under age five mortality rates. All analyses were based on 2019 and 2021 data. We also stratified nations by the number of neonatal vaccine doses required and conducted a one-way ANOVA test and a post hoc Tukey-Kramer test to determine if there were statistically significant differences in the group mean neonatal, infant, and under age five mortality rates of nations that administered zero, one, or two neonatal vaccine doses. Results Linear regression analyses of neonatal vaccine doses required by nations in our 2021 dataset yielded statistically significant positive correlations to rates of neonatal mortality (r = 0.34, p = .017), infant mortality (r = 0.46, p = .0008), and under age five mortality (r = 0.48, p = .0004). Similar results were reported using 2019 data. Utilizing 2021 data, a post hoc Tukey-Kramer test indicated a statistically significant pairwise difference between the mean neonatal mortality rates, mean infant mortality rates, and mean under age five mortality rates of nations requiring zero vs. two neonatal vaccine doses. There was a statistically significant difference of 1.28 deaths per 1000 live births (p < .002) between the mean infant mortality rates among nations that did not give their neonates any vaccine doses and those that required two vaccine doses. Using 2019 and 2021 data, 17 of 18 analyses (12 bivariate linear regressions and six ANOVA and Tukey-Kramer tests) achieved statistical significance and corroborated the findings reported in our original study of a positive association between the number of vaccine doses required by developed nations and their infant mortality rates. Conclusions There are statistically significant positive correlations between mortality rates of developed nations and the number of early childhood vaccine doses that are routinely given. Further investigations of the hypotheses generated by this study are recommended to confirm that current vaccination schedules are achieving their intended objectives.

Reaffirming a Positive Correlation Between Number of Vaccine Doses and Infant Mortality Rates: A Response to Critics

Introduction In 2011, we published a study that found a counterintuitive, positive correlation, r = 0.70 (p < .0001), demonstrating that among the most highly developed nations (n = 30), those that require more vaccines for their infants tend to have higher infant mortality rates (IMRs). Critics of the paper recently claimed that this finding is due to "inappropriate data exclusion," i.e., the failure to analyze the "full dataset" of all 185 nations. Objective In the present study, we examine various claims postulated by these critics and the validity of their scientific methods, and we perform several investigations to assess the reliability of our original findings. Methods The critics select 185 nations and use linear regression to report a correlation between the number of vaccine doses and IMRs. They also perform multiple linear regression analyses of the Human Development Index (HDI) vs. IMR with additional predictors and investigate IMR vs. percentage vaccination rates for eight different vaccines. We perform odds ratio, sensitivity, and replication analyses. Results The critics' reanalysis combines 185 developed and Third World nations that have varying rates of vaccination and socioeconomic disparities. Despite the presence of inherent confounding variables, a small, statistically significant positive correlation of r = 0.16 (p < .03) is reported that corroborates the positive trend in our study. Multiple linear regression analyses report high correlations between IMR and HDI, but the number of vaccine doses as an additional predictor is not statistically significant. This finding is a likely consequence of known misclassification errors in HDI. Linear regression of IMR as a function of percentage vaccination rates reports statistically significant inverse correlations for 7 of 8 vaccines. However, several anomalies in the scatter plots of the data suggest that the chosen linear model is problematic. Our odds ratio analysis conducted on the original dataset controlled for several variables. None of these variables lowered the correlation below 0.62, thus robustly confirming our findings. Our sensitivity analysis reported statistically significant positive correlations between the number of vaccine doses and IMR when we expanded our original analysis from the top 30 to the 46 nations with the best IMRs. Additionally, a replication of our original study using updated 2019 data corroborated the trend we found in our first paper (r = 0.45, p = .002). Conclusions A positive correlation between the number of vaccine doses and IMRs is detectable in the most highly developed nations but attenuated in the background noise of nations with heterogeneous socioeconomic variables that contribute to high rates of infant mortality, such as malnutrition, poverty, and substandard health care.

Neonatal Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Vaccination to Prevent Early-Life Eczema: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

Increasing evidence suggests that early-life bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine could prevent atopic eczema through its beneficial off-target effects. In this meta-analysis, 3 randomized control trials with similar methods were included and enabled robust estimations with low heterogeneity, involving a total of 5655 children randomized to early-life BCG Denmark (n = 2832) or no BCG (n = 2823). Meta-analyses suggest a beneficial effect of BCG to prevent eczema (risk ratio [RR], 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.98). In subgroup analyses, BCG was more beneficial in boys (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74-0.95) and in children born to 2 atopic parents (RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.97). The NNT to prevent one case of eczema among children of 1 or 2 atopic parent was 20 (95% CI, 12-50). Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Denmark leads to an 11% reduction in the risk of eczema in early life. A greater effect was observed with increasing predisposition. Given its well-established safety profile, neonatal BCG vaccination should be considered for children of atopic parents.

Oral Polio Vaccine to Mitigate the Risk of Illness and Mortality During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Guinea-Bissau

Background

Oral polio vaccine (OPV) may improve resistance to non-polio-infections. We tested whether OPV reduced the risk of illness and mortality before coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines were available.

Methods

During the early COVID-19 pandemic, houses in urban Guinea-Bissau were randomized 1:1 to intervention or control. Residents aged 50+ years were invited to participate. Participants received bivalent OPV (single dose) or nothing. Rates of mortality, admissions, and consultation for infections (primary composite outcome) during 6 months of follow-up were compared in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age and residential area. Secondary outcomes included mortality, admissions, consultations, and symptoms of infection.

Results

We followed 3726 participants (OPV, 1580; control, 2146) and registered 66 deaths, 97 admissions, and 298 consultations for infections. OPV did not reduce the risk of the composite outcome overall (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], .79–1.18). OPV reduced the risk in males (HR = 0.71; 95% CI, .51–.98) but not in females (HR = 1.18; 95% CI, .91–1.52) (P for same effect = .02). OPV also reduced the risk in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin scar-positive (HR = 0.70; 95% CI, .49–.99) but not in scar-negative participants (HR = 1.13; 95% CI, .89–1.45) (P = .03). OPV had no overall significant effect on mortality (HR = 0.96; 95% CI, .59–1.55), admissions (HR = 0.76; 95% CI, .49–1.17) or recorded consultations (HR = 0.99; 95% CI, .79–1.25), but the OPV group reported more episodes with symptoms of infection (6050 episodes; HR = 1.10 [95% CI, 1.03–1.17]).

Conclusions

In line with previous studies, OPV had beneficial nonspecific effects in males.

Stopping Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) After Defeating Poliomyelitis in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Harmful Unintended Consequences? Review of the Nonspecific Effects of OPV

Background

The live vaccines bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and measles vaccine have beneficial nonspecific effects (NSEs) reducing mortality, more than can be explained by prevention of tuberculosis or measles infection. Live oral polio vaccine (OPV) will be stopped after polio eradication; we therefore reviewed the potential NSEs of OPV.

Methods

OPV has been provided in 3 contexts: (1) coadministration of OPV and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age; (2) at birth (OPV0) with BCG; and (3) in OPV campaigns (C-OPVs) initiated to eradicate polio infection. We searched PubMed and Embase for studies of OPV with mortality as an outcome. We used meta-analysis to obtain the combined relative risk (RR) of mortality associated with different uses of OPV.

Results

First, in natural experiments when DTP was missing, OPV-only compared with DTP + OPV was associated with 3-fold lower mortality in community studies (RR, 0.33 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .14-.75]) and a hospital study (RR, 0.29 [95% CI, .11-.77]). Conversely, when OPV was missing, DTP-only was associated with 3-fold higher mortality than DTP + OPV (RR, 3.23 [95% CI, 1.27-8.21]). Second, in a randomized controlled trial, BCG + OPV0 vs BCG + no OPV0 was associated with 32% (95% CI, 0-55%) lower infant mortality. Beneficial NSEs were stronger with early use of OPV0. Third, in 5 population-based studies from Guinea-Bissau and Bangladesh, the mortality rate was 24% (95% CI, 17%-31%) lower after C-OPVs than before C-OPVs.

Conclusions

There have been few clinical polio cases reported in this century, and no confounding factors or bias would explain all these patterns. The only consistent interpretation is that OPV has beneficial NSEs, reducing nonpolio child mortality.

Immunisation with the BCG and DTPw vaccines induces different programs of trained immunity in mice

In addition to providing pathogen-specific immunity, vaccines can also confer nonspecific effects (NSEs) on mortality and morbidity unrelated to the targeted disease. Immunisation with live vaccines, such as the BCG vaccine, has generally been associated with significantly reduced all-cause infant mortality. In contrast, some inactivated vaccines, such as the diphtheria, tetanus, whole-cell pertussis (DTPw) vaccine, have been controversially associated with increased all-cause mortality especially in female infants in high-mortality settings. The NSEs associated with BCG have been attributed, in part, to the induction of trained immunity, an epigenetic and metabolic reprograming of innate immune cells, increasing their responsiveness to subsequent microbial encounters. Whether non-live vaccines such as DTPw induce trained immunity is currently poorly understood. Here, we report that immunisation of mice with DTPw induced a unique program of trained immunity in comparison to BCG immunised mice. Altered monocyte and DC cytokine responses were evident in DTPw immunised mice even months after vaccination. Furthermore, splenic cDCs from DTPw immunised mice had altered chromatin accessibility at loci involved in immunity and metabolism, suggesting that these changes were epigenetically mediated. Interestingly, changing the order in which the BCG and DTPw vaccines were co-administered to mice altered subsequent trained immune responses. Given these differences in trained immunity, we also assessed whether administration of these vaccines altered susceptibility to sepsis in two different mouse models. Immunisation with either BCG or a DTPw-containing vaccine prior to the induction of sepsis did not significantly alter survival. Further studies are now needed to more fully investigate the potential consequences of DTPw induced trained immunity in different contexts and to assess whether other non-live vaccines also induce similar changes.

Non-specific effects of maternal and offspring rabies vaccination on mortality and antibiotic use in a Danish pig herd: A randomized trial

INTRODUCTION

Human non-live vaccines have been associated with detrimental non-specific effects (NSE), particularly in females. A large trial found 2-fold increased overall mortality in girls receiving a new malaria vaccine compared to the rabies vaccine used as a coontrol; a beneficial NSE of the rabies vaccine was proposed. Conversely, in dogs increased mortality was seen in females but not males following rabies vaccination of puppies born to immunized mothers. We investigated NSE of non-live rabies vaccine in piglets and the potential modifying effect of maternal priming with rabies vaccine.

METHODS

In a Danish herd of commercial rabies virus-free pigs, 575 pregnant sows (2-3 weeks before scheduled farrowing) and 5747 of their offspring (median 6-day-old) were allocated (1:1) to non-live rabies vaccine (Versiguard rabies vet) or no rabies vaccine. Outcomes were overall mortality and antibiotic treatment until departure from the nursery (approximately age 12 weeks/30 kgs).

RESULTS

Until weaning, overall offspring mortality was 2.2% (127 piglets died, rabies vaccine: n = 69; control: n = 58), the proportion ratio (PR) being 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.84-1.68). Until end of follow-up, mortality was 4.1% (233, rabies vaccine: n = 115; control = 118, PR: 0.97 (0.76-1.25)). Prior sow rabies vaccination did not affect piglet mortality. For mortality as well as risk of antibiotic treatment before weaning, there was indication of a beneficial effect of rabies vaccine in female piglets, but a negative effect in (castrated) male piglets from rabies-naïve sows. Prior sow vaccination significantly modified the vaccine effect estimate in female piglets toward a detrimental effect of rabies vaccine on treatment risk. These effects had waned by 12 weeks of age.

CONCLUSION

The study did not support the hypothesized beneficial NSE of rabies vaccine. Although under-powered for subgroup analyses, the study indicated effect modification by sex and maternal vaccination. Results could be different in a herd with higher mortality and infectious burden.

Coverage and factors associated with receiving campaign polio vaccines in an urban population in Guinea-Bissau

BACKGROUND

Polio eradication campaigns are intended to complement routine immunization. Studies addressing factors associated with campaign coverage are warranted to identify children missed by campaigns.

METHODS

Bandim Health Project runs demographic surveillance with registration of routine immunization and campaign participation data in urban Guinea-Bissau. We assessed coverage and factors associated with receiving campaign polio vaccines in children aged 0-35 months in two polio eradication campaigns conducted in 2017 and 2018 using univariate and multivariate regression models.

RESULTS

Campaign coverage reached 84% in 2017 and 88% in 2018. We found lower coverage among children of young and not formally educated mothers in univariate analyses; Children <9 months and Fula children had lower campaign coverage in both univariate and multivariate analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

To increase campaign coverage in urban Guinea-Bissau attention may be directed at informing young mothers, mothers of young children, mothers without formal education, and the Fula ethnic group about campaigns.

Are maternal and child health initiatives helping to reduce under-five mortality in Ghana? Results of a quasi-experimental study using coarsened exact matching

BACKGROUND

Despite a 53 % decline in under-five mortality (U5M) worldwide during the period of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), U5M remains a challenge. Under-five mortality decline in Ghana is slow and not parallel with the level of coverage of child health interventions. The interventions promoted to improve child survival include early initiation of breastfeeding, clean postnatal care, and skilled delivery. This study sought to assess the effectiveness of these interventions on U5M in Ghana.

METHODS

A quasi-experimental study was conducted using secondary data of the 2008 and 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys. Coarsened Exact Matching and logistic regression were done. The interventions assessed were iron intake, early initiation of breastfeeding, clean postnatal care, hygienic disposal of stool, antenatal care visits, skilled delivery, intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy, and tetanus toxoid vaccine.

RESULTS

There were 2,045 children under-five years and 40 (1.9 %) deaths in 2008. In 2014, the total number of children under-five years was 4,053, while deaths were 53(1.2 %). In 2014, children less than one month old formed 1.6 % of all children under-five years, but 47.8 % of those who died. Mothers who attended four or more antenatal care visits were 78.2 % in 2008 and 87.0 % in 2014. Coverage levels of improved sanitation and water connection in the home were among the lowest, with 11.6 % for improved sanitation and 7.3 % for water connection in the home in 2014. Fifty-eight (58), 1.4 %, of children received all the eight (8) interventions in 2014, and none of those who received all these interventions died. After controlling for potential confounders, clean postnatal care was associated with a 66% reduction in the average odds of death (aOR = 0.34, 95 %CI:0.14-0.82), while early initiation of breastfeeding was associated with a 62 % reduction in the average odds of death (aOR = 0.38, 95 % CI: 0.21-0.69).

CONCLUSIONS

Two (clean postnatal care and early initiation of breastfeeding) out of eight interventions were associated with a reduction in the average odds of death. Thus, a further decline in under-five mortality in Ghana will require an increase in the coverage levels of these two high-impact interventions.

National Immunization Campaigns With Oral Polio Vaccine May Reduce All-cause Mortality: An Analysis of 13 Years of Demographic Surveillance Data From an Urban African Area

BACKGROUND

Between 2002 and 2014, Guinea-Bissau had 17 national campaigns with oral polio vaccine (OPV) as well as campaigns with vitamin A supplementation (VAS), measles vaccine (MV), and H1N1 influenza vaccine. We examined the impact of these campaigns on child survival.

METHODS

We examined the mortality rate between 1 day and 3 years of age of all children in the study area. We used Cox models with age as underlying time to calculate adjusted mortality rate ratios (MRRs) between "after-campaign" mortality and "before-campaign" mortality, adjusted for temporal change in mortality and stratified for season at risk.

RESULTS

Mortality was lower after OPV-only campaigns than before, with an MRR for after-campaign vs before-campaign being 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI], .67-.85). Other campaigns did not have similar effects, the MRR being 1.22 (95% CI, 1.04-1.44) for OPV + VAS campaigns, 1.39 (95% CI, 1.20-1.61) for VAS-only campaigns, 1.32 (95% CI, 1.09-1.60) for MV + VAS campaigns, and 1.13 (95% CI, .86-1.49) for the H1N1 campaign. Thus, all other campaigns differed significantly from the effect of OPV-only campaigns. Effects did not differ for trivalent, bivalent, or monovalent strains of OPV. With each additional campaign of OPV only, the mortality rate declined further (MRR, 0.86 [95% CI, .81-.92] per campaign). With follow-up to 3 years of age, the number needed to treat to save 1 life with the OPV-only campaign was 50 neonates.

CONCLUSIONS

OPV campaigns can have a much larger effect on child survival than otherwise assumed. Stopping OPV campaigns in low-income countries as part of the endgame for polio infection may increase child mortality.

Retesting the hypothesis that early Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis vaccination increases female mortality: An observational study within a randomised trial

BACKGROUND

There are worrying indications that diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine has negative non-specific effects for females. We previously found, in a trial of early-Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) to low weight (LW) neonates, that receiving early-DTP (before 2 months of age), was associated with increased female mortality compared with no-DTP/delayed-DTP. Within a subsequent LW trial, we aimed to retest this observation.

METHODS

Between 2010 and 2014, in Guinea-Bissau, 2,398 infants were randomised 1:1 to early-BCG (intervention) or delayed-BCG (standard practice for LW neonates) and visited at 2, 6 and 12 months of age to assess nutritional and vaccination status. DTP is recommended at 6 weeks of age. We examined the effect of having "early-DTP" versus "no-DTP" at the time of the 2-month visit on all-cause mortality between the 2- and 6-month visits in Cox models stratified by sex and adjusted for BCG-group and 2-month-weight-for-age (z-scores) providing adjusted mortality rate ratios (aMRRs). We analysed to which extent conditions varied between the present and the previous LW trials and how that might have affected the overall result of comparing the early-DTP and the no-DTP groups.

RESULTS

At the time of the 2-month visit, 75% (1,795/2,398) had received DTP. Those vaccinated had better anthropometric indices than no-DTP infants at birth and by 2 months of age. Between the 2- and 6-month visits, 29 deaths occurred. The early-DTP/no-DTP aMRR was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.44-2.69); 1.19 (0.45-3.15) for females and 0.77 (0.14-4.19) for males. Compared to the previous study, the present study cohort had 56% (30-72%) lower overall mortality, fewer no-DTP infants, higher BCG vaccination coverage and several more oral polio vaccine campaigns.

CONCLUSION

We did not find that early-DTP was associated with increased female mortality as found in a previous study; differences in results may partly be due to a decline in overall mortality and changes in vaccination practices.

Non-specific effects of rabies vaccine on the incidence of self-reported common infectious disease episodes: A randomized controlled trial

Vaccines may affect recipients' immune systems in ways that change morbidity or mortality rates to unrelated infections in vaccinated populations. It has been proposed that these non-specific effects differ by type of vaccine and by sex, with non-live vaccines enhancing susceptibility of females to unrelated infections, and live vaccines enhancing resistance in both sexes. Rabies vaccine-a non-live vaccine-has been associated with protection against unrelated central nervous system infections. Data from randomized controlled trials are needed to assess this effect against other illnesses. This phase IV, single-site, participant-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in a population of veterinary students on the rabies-free island of St. Kitts assessed the effect of a primary course of rabies vaccine on the incidence rate of weekly self-reported new episodes of common infectious disease (CID) syndromes, defined as a new episode of any one of the following syndromes in a particular week: upper respiratory illness (URI), influenza-like illness (ILI), diarrheal illness (DIA) or undifferentiated febrile illness (UFI). As a secondary objective, we tested for modification of the effect of rabies vaccine on study outcomes by sex. 546 participants were randomized (274 to rabies vaccine and 272 to placebo). No statistically significant differences between groups were observed for any study outcomes: CID incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.95 (95% CI 0.77-1.18); URI IRR 1.15 (95% CI 0.86-1.54); ILI IRR 0.83 (95% CI 0.54-1.27); DIA IRR 0.93 (95% CI 0.70-1.24) and UFI IRR 1.09 (95% CI 0.48-2.44). In a secondary analysis, there was little evidence that sex modified the effect of vaccination on any of the evaluated outcomes, although the power to detect this was low. In conclusion, rabies vaccine did not provide protection against mild self-reported illness among a young and healthy group of adults attending veterinary school. Clinical trial registration. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03656198.

National immunisation campaigns with oral polio vaccine may reduce all-cause mortality: Analysis of 2004-2019 demographic surveillance data in rural Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

West African studies have suggested that national immunisation campaigns with oral polio vaccine (C-OPV) may non-specifically reduce all-cause child mortality rate by 15-25%. We investigated whether C-OPVs had similar non-specific effects in rural Bangladesh from 2004 to 2019.

METHODS

Chakaria, is a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in Southern Bangladesh. From 2004-2011 the HDSS covered a random sample of households; from 2012 to 2019 it covered a random sample of villages. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we calculated hazard ratios (HR) comparing mortality for children under 3 years of age after C-OPV versus before C-OPV to assess the effect of receiving a C-OPV. We allowed for different baseline hazard function in the two periods (2004-2011, 2012-2019), with separate models for each period.

FINDINGS

There were 768 deaths (2.1%) amongst 36,176 children. The HR after C-OPV was 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.52-0.90). National campaigns providing vitamin A or measles vaccine did not have similar effects. Each additional dose of C-OPV was associated with a reduction in the mortality rate by 6% (-2 to 13%). The number needed to treat with C-OPV to save one life between 0 and 35 months of age was 88 (81-96).

INTERPRETATION

This is the fourth study to show that C-OPV has beneficial non-specific effects on child survival. All studies have shown a beneficial effect of C-OPV on child health. Stopping OPV as planned after polio eradication without any mitigation plan could have detrimental effects for overall child health in low-income countries.

FUNDING

The Chakaria HDSS was funded by international sponsors. No sponsor had any influence on the preparation of the article.

A Health Economic Analysis for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine to Prevent COVID-19 in the United States

COVID-19 led to a recent high-profile proposal to reintroduce oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in the United States (U.S.), initially in clinical trials, but potentially for widespread and repeated use. We explore logistical challenges related to U.S. OPV administration in 2020, review the literature related to nonspecific effects of OPV to induce innate immunity, and model the health and economic implications of the proposal. The costs of reintroducing a single OPV dose to 331 million Americans would exceed $4.4 billion. Giving a dose of bivalent OPV to the entire U.S. population would lead to an expected 40 identifiable cases of vaccine-associated paralytic polio, with young Americans at the highest risk. Reintroducing any OPV use in the U.S. poses a risk of restarting transmission of OPV-related viruses and could lead to new infections in immunocompromised individuals with B-cell related primary immunodeficiencies that could lead to later cases of paralysis. Due to the lack of a currently licensed OPV in the U.S., the decision to administer OPV to Americans for nonspecific immunological effects would require purchasing limited global OPV supplies that could impact polio eradication efforts. Health economic modeling suggests no role for reintroducing OPV into the U.S. with respect to responding to COVID-19. Countries that currently use OPV experience fundamentally different risks, costs, and benefits than the U.S. Successful global polio eradication will depend on sufficient OPV supplies, achieving and maintaining high OPV coverage in OPV-using countries, and effective global OPV cessation and containment in all countries, including the U.S.

Do inequalities exist in the disadvantaged populations? Levels and trends of full and on-time vaccination coverage in two Nairobi urban informal settlements

There has been an improvement in childhood vaccination coverage over the last two decades worldwide. However, inequities exist among different populations. Vaccination programs should focus not only on increasing coverage but as also in timeliness to ensure maximum protection. This study examined the levels, inequities, and trends of full and on-time vaccination coverage in two urban informal settlements in Nairobi. The study used longitudinal data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 2003 to 2017 to estimate full and on-time vaccination coverage and assess inequalities by background characteristics. The frailty shared Cox model was used to assess time to full- and on-time- immunization coverage. Out of 32,018 children aged 12 to 59 months, less than half (46.7%) produced a vaccination card during the interview. Full and timely immunization coverage was higher in Viwandani site, among Kikuyu and Kamba ethnic groups, and children from the richest quintile. Timely vaccination was below 50% throughout the survey periods. After accounting for the intragroup correlations, for a given level of frailty, the hazard for being fully immunized was 10% more likely among the wealthiest compared to the poorest children. The hazard for being fully immunized was 16%, 16% to 19% less likely for Luhya, Luo, and others as compared to the Kikuyu ethnicity respectively. In conclusion, the study has shown that coverage has been increasing over the years but inequalities exist in immunization coverage among the most disadvantaged populations. More focused intervention approaches that target the disadvantaged groups are needed.

Reduced Mortality After Oral Polio Vaccination and Increased Mortality After Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis Vaccination in Children in a Low-income Setting

PURPOSE

The diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP) and oral polio vaccine (OPV) were introduced in children 3 of 5 months of age in 1981-1983 in Bandim, in the capital of Guinea-Bissau. Because DTP has been linked to deleterious nonspecific effects (NSEs) and OPV to beneficial NSEs, we followed up this cohort to 3 years of age and examined the effects of DTP with OPV on all-cause mortality and the interactions of DTP and OPV with the measles vaccine (MV).

METHODS

DTP and OPV were offered at 3 monthly community weighing sessions. Vaccination groups were defined by the last vaccine received. We compared overall mortality for different groups in Cox proportional hazards regression models, reporting hazards ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

The study cohort included 1491 children born in Bandim from December 1980 to December 1983. From 3 to 35 months of age, with censoring for MV, children vaccinated with DTP and/or OPV had higher mortality than both unvaccinated children (HR = l.66; 95% CI, 1.03-2.69) and OPV-only vaccinated children (HR = 2.81; 95% CI, 1.02-7.69); DTP-only vaccinated children had higher mortality than OPV-only vaccinated children (HR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.15--9.93). In the age group of 3-8 months, before MV is administered, DTP-only vaccination was associated with a higher mortality than DTP with OPV (HR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.59-7.20). Between 9 and 35 months of age, when MV is given, DTP-vaccinated and MV-unvaccinated children had higher mortality (HR = 2.76; 95% CI, 1.36-5.59) than children who had received MV after DTP, and among children who received DTP with MV or after MV, DTP-only vaccination was associated with a higher mortality than DTP with OPV (HR = 6.25; 95% CI, 2.55-15.37).

IMPLICATIONS

Because the 2 vaccines had differential effects and the healthiest children were vaccinated first, selection biases are unlikely to explain the estimated impact on child survival. OPV had beneficial NSEs, and administration of OPV with DTP may have reduced the negative effects of DTP.

Relative Incidence of Office Visits and Cumulative Rates of Billed Diagnoses Along the Axis of Vaccination

We performed a retrospective analysis spanning ten years of pediatric practice focused on patients with variable vaccination born into a practice, presenting a unique opportunity to study the effects of variable vaccination on outcomes. The average total incidence of billed office visits per outcome related to the outcomes were compared across groups (Relative Incidence of Office Visit (RIOV)). RIOV is shown to be more powerful than odds ratio of diagnoses. Full cohort, cumulative incidence analyses, matched for days of care, and matched for family history analyses were conducted across quantiles of vaccine uptake. Increased office visits related to many diagnoses were robust to days-of-care-matched analyses, family history, gender block, age block, and false discovery risk. Many outcomes had high RIOV odds ratios after matching for days-of-care (e.g., anemia (6.334), asthma (3.496), allergic rhinitis (6.479), and sinusitis (3.529), all significant under the Z-test). Developmental disorders were determined to be difficult to study due to extremely low prevalence in the practice, potentially attributable to high rates of vaccine cessation upon adverse events and family history of autoimmunity. Remarkably, zero of the 561 unvaccinated patients in the study had attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) compared to 0.063% of the (partially and fully) vaccinated. The implications of these results for the net public health effects of whole-population vaccination and with respect for informed consent on human health are compelling. Our results give agency to calls for research conducted by individuals who are independent of any funding sources related to the vaccine industry. While the low rates of developmental disorders prevented sufficiently powered hypothesis testing, it is notable that the overall rate of autism spectrum disorder (0.84%) in the cohort is half that of the US national rate (1.69%). The practice-wide rate of ADHD was roughly half of the national rate. The data indicate that unvaccinated children in the practice are not unhealthier than the vaccinated and indeed the overall results may indicate that the unvaccinated pediatric patients in this practice are healthier overall than the vaccinated.

Multiple Vaccinations and the Enigma of Vaccine Injury

A growing number of vaccines are administered at the same time or in close succession, increasing the complexity of assessing vaccine safety. Individual vaccines are assumed to have no other effect than protection against the targeted pathogen, but vaccines also have nonspecific and interactive effects, the outcomes of which can be beneficial or harmful. To date, no controlled trials and very few observational studies have determined the impact of vaccination schedules on overall health. The balance of the risks and benefits from mass vaccination therefore remains uncertain. Recent studies worryingly suggest links between multiple vaccinations and increased risks of diverse multisystem health problems, including allergies, infections, and neuropsychiatric or neurodevelopmental disorders. Here, we propose that, in susceptible persons, multiple vaccinations activate the retinoid cascade and trigger apoptotic hepatitis, leading to cholestatic liver dysfunction, in which stored vitamin A compounds (retinyl esters and retinoic acid) enter the circulation in toxic concentrations; this induces endogenous forms of hypervitaminosis A, with the severity of adverse outcomes being directly proportional to the concentration of circulating retinoids. In very low concentrations, vitamin A and its major metabolite retinoic acid contribute to immune function and to the process of immunization, whereas excess vitamin A increases the risk of adverse events, including common "side-effects" as well as chronic adverse outcomes. The increasing rates of allergy, ear infections, and neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) in countries with high rates of vaccination could be related to mass vaccination and to its impact on liver function and vitamin A metabolism, collectively representing endogenous manifestations of hypervitaminosis A. Further studies of health outcomes in vaccinated and unvaccinated groups are urgently needed, to increase understanding of the pathophysiology and treatment of vaccine injury, to identify the risk factors and screen for vaccine injury, to inform public health policy on potential hazards related to vaccination schedules, and to optimize the safety and benefits of vaccines.

Comorbidities Before and After the Diagnosis of Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Matched Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the contribution of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to conditions and medical events. A secondary objective is to quantify this association before and after the introduction of biologic medications.

METHODS

All data were collected as health administrative data in Ontario, Canada. Patients with RA (n = 136 678) matched 1:1 to a pool of possible controls without RA from 1995 to 2016. The study was a retrospective longitudinal observational administrative data-based cohort study with cases (RA) and controls (two non-RA comparator groups). The main exposure was new-onset RA identified by a validated diagnosis algorithm. The secondary exposure was the calendar year, which provided a natural experiment to compare years in which biologics were unavailable (pre-2001) to increasing utilization over time. The main outcomes were counts of 27 Johns Hopkins Expanded Diagnostic Cluster Comorbid Conditions. Outcomes were reported as counts and percentage differences between cases and matched controls.

RESULTS

Patients experienced increases in conditions and medical events up to 5 years before RA disease incidence-4.9 conditions per patient-year compared with 4.6 conditions per patient-year in matched controls. Comorbidities increased to 8.7 conditions per patient-year in the year of RA incidence but were lower in the years after diagnosis-6.9 conditions per patient-year at 5 years postdiagnosis.

CONCLUSION

This study reframes the clinical manifestations of RA with detailed data on the marginal contribution of RA to conditions and medical events. These results show that a large portion of disease burden is due to the indirect effects of RA.

Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (DTP) Vaccine Is Associated With Increased female-Male Mortality. Studies of DTP administered before and after measles vaccine

Background

The third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP3) is used to monitor immunization programs. DTP has been associated with higher female mortality.

Methods

We updated previous literature searches for DTP studies of mortality by sex. We examined the female/male (F/M) mortality rate ratio (MRR) with increasing number of doses of DTP and for subsequent doses of measles vaccine (MV) after DTP and of DTP after MV.

Results

Eight studies had information on both DTP1 and DTP3. The F/M MRR was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI], .88–1.57) after DTP1 and increased to 1.66 (95% CI, 1.32–2.09) after DTP3. Following receipt of MV, the F/M MRR declined to 0.63 (95% CI, .42–.96). In 11 studies the F/M MRR increased to 1.73 (95% CI, 1.33–2.27) when DTP-containing vaccine was administered after MV.

Conclusions

F/M MRR increased with increasing doses of DTP. After MV, girls had lower mortality than boys. With DTP after MV, mortality increased again for girls relative to boys. No bias can explain these changes in F/M MRR. DTP does not improve male survival substantially in situations with herd immunity to pertussis and higher F/M MRR after DTP may therefore reflects an absolute increase in female mortality.

Measles, mumps and rubella vs diphtheria-tetanus-acellular-pertussis-inactivated-polio-Haemophilus influenzae type b as the most recent vaccine and risk of early 'childhood asthma'

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Live vaccines may have beneficial non-specific effects. We tested whether the live measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine compared with the non-live diphtheria-tetanus-acellular-pertussis-inactivated-polio-Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTaP-IPV-Hib) vaccine as the most recent vaccine was associated with less childhood asthma and fewer acute hospital contacts for childhood asthma among boys and girls.

METHODS

This study is a nationwide register-based cohort study of 338 761 Danish children born between 1999 and 2006. We compared (i) the incidence of first-registered childhood asthma based on hospital contacts and drug prescriptions and (ii) the incidence of severe asthma defined as acute hospital contacts for childhood asthma between the ages of 15 and 48 months among children whose last received vaccine was three doses of DTaP-IPV-Hib and then MMR with children whose last received vaccine was three doses of DTaP-IPV-Hib.

RESULTS

For boys, following the recommended vaccine schedule of MMR after DTaP-IPV-Hib3 compared with DTaP-IPV-Hib3 as the last received vaccine, MMR was associated with 8.1 (95% confidence interval 3.9-12.3) fewer childhood asthma cases per 1000 boys, corresponding to 10% (5-15%) reduction in the cumulative incidence of childhood asthma. MMR, when given last, was also associated with 16.3 (95% confidence interval 12.7-20.0) fewer acute hospital admissions for childhood asthma per 1000 boys, corresponding to a 27% (22-31%) reduction in the cumulative incidence. No associations were seen for girls.

CONCLUSION

MMR may have a protective effect against childhood asthma for boys. This calls for an understanding of whether non-specific effects of vaccines can be used to optimize our vaccine programmes.

Vaccinology: time to change the paradigm?

The existing vaccine paradigm assumes that vaccines only protect against the target infection, that effective vaccines reduce mortality corresponding to the target infection's share of total mortality, and that the effects of vaccines are similar for males and females. However, epidemiological vaccine research has generated observations that contradict these assumptions and suggest that vaccines have important non-specific effects on overall health in populations. These include the observations that several live vaccines reduce the incidence of all-cause mortality in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated populations far more than can be explained by protection against the target infections, and that several non-live vaccines are associated with increased all-cause mortality in females. In this Personal View we describe current observations and contradictions and define six emerging principles that might explain them. First, that live vaccines enhance resistance towards unrelated infections. Second, non-live vaccines enhance the susceptibility of girls to unrelated infections. Third, the most recently administered vaccination has the strongest non-specific effects. Fourth, combinations of live and non-live vaccines given together have variable non-specific health effects. Fifth, vaccinating children with live vaccines in the presence of maternal immunity enhances beneficial non-specific effects and reduces mortality. Finally, vaccines might interact with other co-administered health interventions, for example vitamin A supplementation. The potential implications for child health are substantial. For example, if BCG vaccination was given to children at birth, if higher measles vaccination coverage could be obtained, if diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis-containing vaccines were not given with or after measles vaccine, or if the BCG strain with the best non-specific effects could be used consistently, then child mortality could be considerably lower. Pursuing these emerging principles could improve our understanding and use of vaccines globally.

Penta is associated with an increased female-male mortality ratio: cohort study from Bangladesh

Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccine may be associated with excess female deaths. There are few studies of possible nonspecific effects of the DTP-containing vaccine Penta (DTP-hepatitis B-Haemophilus influenzae type b). We therefore investigated whether Penta vaccinations were associated with excess female deaths in rural Bangladesh. Between June 29, 2011 and April 20, 2016, we examined the mortality rates of 7644 children followed between 6 weeks and 9 months of age. We analyzed mortality using crude mortality rate ratio (MRR) and age-adjusted MRR (aMRR) from a Cox proportional hazards model. Mortality was analyzed according to sex, number of doses of Penta, and the order in which BCG and Penta were administered. During follow-up, 43 children died. For children who were only BCG vaccinated (BCG-only), the adjusted F/M MRR was 0.47 (0.09-2.48). However, among children who had Penta as their most recent vaccination, the adjusted F/M MRR was 9.91 (1.16-84.44). Hence, the adjusted F/M MRR differed significantly for BCG-only and for Penta as the most recent administered vaccination. Although the mortality rate was low in rural Bangladesh, there was a marked difference between adjusted F/M MRR's for children vaccinated with BCG-only compared with children where Penta was the most recent administered vaccination. Although usually ascribed to differential treatment and access to care, DTP-containing vaccines may be part of the explanation for the excessive female mortality reported in some regions.

Research protocol of two concurrent cluster-randomized trials: Real-life Effect of a CAMPaign with Measles Vaccination (RECAMP-MV) and Real-life Effect of a CAMPaign with Oral Polio Vaccination (RECAMP-OPV) on mortality and morbidity among children in rural Guinea-Bissau

BACKGROUND

Measles and oral polio vaccinations may reduce child mortality to an extent that cannot be explained by prevention of measles and polio infections; these vaccines seem to have beneficial non-specific effects. In the last decades, billions of children worldwide have received measles vaccine (MV) and oral polio vaccine (OPV) through campaigns. Meanwhile the under-five child mortality has declined. Past MV and OPV campaigns may have contributed to this decline, even in the absence of measles and polio infections. However, cessation of these campaigns, once their targeted infections are eradicated, may reverse the decline in the under-five child mortality. No randomized trial has assessed the real-life effect of either campaign on child mortality and morbidity. We present the research protocol of two concurrent trials: RECAMP-MV and RECAMP-OPV.

METHODS

Both trials are cluster-randomized trials among children registered in Bandim Health Project's rural health and demographic surveillance system throughout Guinea-Bissau. RECAMP-MV is conducted among children aged 9-59 months and RECAMP-OPV is conducted among children aged 0-8 months. We randomized 222 geographical clusters to intervention or control clusters. In intervention clusters, children are offered MV or OPV (according to age at enrolment) and a health check-up. In control clusters, children are offered only a health check-up. Enrolments began in November 2016 (RECAMP-MV) and March 2017 (RECAMP-OPV). We plan 18,000 enrolments for RECAMP-MV with an average follow-up period of 18 months and 10,000 enrolments for RECAMP-OPV with an average follow-up period of 10 months. Data collection is ongoing. The primary outcome in both trials is non-accidental death or non-accidental first non-fatal hospitalization with overnight stay (composite outcome). Secondary outcomes are: non-accidental death, repeated non-fatal hospitalizations with overnight stay, cause-specific primary outcome, outpatient visit, and illness. We obtained ethical approval from Guinea-Bissau and consultative approval from Denmark.

DISCUSSION

Cluster randomization and minimum risk of loss to follow-up are strengths, and no placebo a limitation. Our trials challenge the understanding that MV and OPV only prevent measles and polio, and that once both infections are eradicated, campaigns with MV and OPV can be phased out without negative implications on child health and survival.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03460002.

Stopping live vaccines after disease eradication may increase mortality

Several live vaccines may have beneficial non-specific effects (NSEs) reducing mortality more than can be explained by the prevention of the target infection, a phenomenon which has been linked to innate immune training. Most randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of oral polio vaccine (OPV) and measles vaccine (MV) have shown a large reduction in mortality that must have been at least partly nonspecific because it was much larger than the reduction explained by prevention of the target disease. Hence, stopping a live vaccine after disease-eradication could have negative health effects if the potential beneficial NSEs are not considered. We reviewed one eradicated disease, smallpox, and two infections likely to be eradicated in coming decades, polio and measles. No study was made of unintended effects of stopping smallpox vaccination when it happened in 1980. We have subsequently documented in both Guinea-Bissau and Denmark that smallpox-vaccinated individuals continued to have a survival advantage long after smallpox had been eradicated. The few studies which have examined the effect of OPV on survival all suggest strong beneficial NSEs; in RCTs, OPV compared with inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been associated with non-specific reductions in morbidity. RCTs, natural experiments and observational studies have found strong beneficial NSEs for MV. Hence, the imminent eradication of polio and the planned stop of OPV in 2024 and the subsequent eradication of measles infection and the possible stop to live MV could have negative effects for child survival. Before live vaccines are phased out, potential unintended effects of stopping these vaccines should be thoroughly studied.

Out-of-sequence DTP and measles vaccinations and child mortality in Guinea-Bissau: a reanalysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether the sequence of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP) and measles vaccine (MV) was associated with child survival in a dataset previously used to assess non-specific effects of vaccines with no consideration of vaccination sequence.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study analysed using the landmark approach.

SETTING

Bandim Health Project's Health and Demographic Surveillance System covering 100 village clusters in rural Guinea-Bissau. The recommended vaccination schedule was BCG and oral polio vaccine (OPV) at birth, DTP and OPV at 6, 10 and 14 weeks, MV at 9 months and booster DTP and OPV at 18 months of age.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged 9-17 months (main analysis) and 18-35 months (secondary analysis: age of booster DTP) with vaccination status assessed between April 1991 and April 1996.

METHODS

Survival during the 6 months after assessing vaccination status was compared by vaccination sequence in Cox-proportional hazards models with age as underlying time. Analyses were stratified by sex and village cluster.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Mortality rate ratio (MRR) for out-of-sequence vaccinations compared with in-sequence vaccinations.

RESULTS

Among children aged 9-17 months, 60% of observations (3574/5937) were from children who had received both MV and DTP. Among these, 1590 observations were classified as in-sequence vaccinations (last DTP before MV), and 1984 observations were out-of-sequence vaccinations (1491: MV with DTP and 493: MV before DTP). Out-of-sequence vaccinations were associated with higher mortality than in-sequence vaccinations (MRR 2.10, 95% CI 1.07 to 4.11); the MRR was 2.30 (95% CI 1.15 to 4.58) for MV with DTP and 1.45 (95% CI 0.50 to 4.22) for DTP after MV. Associations were similar for boys and girls (p=0.77). Between 18 and 35 months the mortality rate increased among children vaccinated in-sequence and the differential effect of out-of-sequence vaccinations disappeared.

CONCLUSION

Out-of-sequence vaccinations may increase child mortality. Hence, sequence of vaccinations should be considered when planning vaccination programmes or introducing new vaccines into the current vaccination schedule.

Developing the concept of beneficial non-specific effect of live vaccines with epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological and immunological studies are increasingly reporting non-specific effects (NSEs) of vaccines; i.e. vaccines may affect the risk and severity of non-targeted infections. We reviewed how epidemiological studies developed the concept of beneficial NSEs of live vaccines.

SOURCES

This is a personal narrative of how we came to pursue the concept of NSEs in studies of measles vaccine (MV) from the late 1970s. We also searched Pubmed for epidemiological studies of nonspecific/non-specific effects (NSEs) of the most common human vaccines.

CONTENT

When smallpox vaccine was introduced around 1800, bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) against tuberculosis in the 1920s and oral polio vaccine (OPV) in the 1960s, there were suggestions that these live attenuated vaccines reduced mortality more than expected. However, scientific follow-up was limited and the concept of beneficial NSEs did not become mainstream. We observed beneficial NSEs after MV was introduced in low-income countries in the 1970s. Subsequent observational studies and randomized trials confirmed beneficial NSEs of smallpox vaccine, BCG and OPV. Recently, beneficial NSEs have been claimed for the non-live diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis and rabies vaccines. However, no non-live vaccine has yet been documented to produce beneficial NSEs.

IMPLICATIONS

Observational and experimental research has shown beneficial NSEs of four live attenuated vaccines: smallpox vaccine, BCG, OPV and MV. With immunological evidence now supporting the epidemiological observations, it is urgent to take both the specific and NSEs into account in the planning of vaccination programmes.

Gulf War Illness: Unifying Hypothesis for a Continuing Health Problem

An estimated 25%⁻32% of veterans of the 1991 Gulf War continue to experience multiple unexplained health problems known as Gulf War Illness (GWI). GWI encompasses chronic pain, musculoskeletal weakness, headache, fatigue, cognitive deficits, alterations in mood, and numerous multi-system complaints. Most potential exposures implicated in GWI were not well documented but included varying levels of several neurotoxicants as well as the anticholinergic drug pyridostigmine bromide (PB), which was routinely taken as prophylaxis against the nerve agent soman. While some veterans also took chloroquine as an antimalarial agent, the literature suggests an association between receipt of multiple vaccinations prior to or during the conflict (perhaps combined with other exposures), and GWI. In-theater exposures may account for any single individual veteran's ill health but many veterans of the same era who were not deployed overseas also suffer the same or similar symptoms. The features of GWI also overlap with those of fibromyalgia, chronic fatigue syndrome and multiple chemical sensitivity, in all of which liver dysfunction has been documented, suggesting a unifying hypothesis. It is proposed that multiple vaccinations, with concurrent or subsequent exposure to PB or additional chemical insults of a liver-damaging nature, plausibly explain the pathogenesis and the observed chronicity of GWI. The suggested mechanism for GWI is thus a chemically-induced impaired liver function, with the spillage of stored vitamin A compounds ("retinoids") into the circulation in toxic concentrations, resulting in an endogenous chronic form of hypervitaminosis A. Implications of the hypothesis are briefly reviewed.

Non-specific effects of vaccinations in high-income settings: How to address the issue?

“Non-specific effects” of vaccines go beyond the specific protective effects against the targeted diseases. They, if real, could theoretically be beneficial, neutral or negative.

This article intends to answer the following questions:

Do the non-specific effects of vaccines exist? Almost certainly yes, and they can be important in low-income countries

Are non-specific effects also present in high-income countries? At least to some extent, it seems quite logical

Can non-specific effects be systematically identified by the current systems of side effects/unintended reactions monitoring? Most likely not

Could the Institute of Medicine proposals and some ongoing attempts solve the issue? It seems unlikely

Could there be better, feasible and ethically acceptable ways to achieve the aforementioned objective?

A proposal is presented about this issue, with the potential both to solve the problem with the most valid methods, and to overcome the ethical problems that have so far precluded the adoption of RCTs to study possible vaccine non-specific effects, monitored by long follow-up.

First International Precision Vaccines Conference: Multidisciplinary Approaches to Next-Generation Vaccines

Vaccines represent a remarkable success in the history of medicine since they have prevented and, in some instances, eradicated a range of infectious diseases. However, for many existing vaccines, immunogenicity is limited, requiring multiple booster doses, and we are still unable to target many pathogens due to intrinsic features of the microorganism, such as genetic/antigenic variability between strains, and our limited understanding of the variables that regulate vaccine responsiveness, including age- and sex-specific differences. Moreover, the traditional approach to vaccine development is often empirical, relying on inactivation of microorganisms or purification of their components, which are usually less immunogenic than the whole microorganism from which they derive. This approach has yielded multiple important vaccines but has failed to consistently generate vaccines that are sufficiently immunogenic in populations with limited immune responsiveness such as newborns and elderly individuals. In an effort to trigger impactful collaborations, a community of scientists gathered in Boston in the United States for the first biennial International Precision Vaccines Conference, sponsored by the Boston Children's Hospital Precision Vaccines Program, to discuss innovation in vaccinology. Recent advancements in the field of systems biology that can identify vaccine immunogenicity biomarkers for target populations, in human in vitro models, and in novel adjuvant and formulation strategies offer unprecedented opportunities to dissect the human immune response to vaccines and inform dramatic improvements in vaccine efficacy. These approaches are poised to have a major scientific and translational impact in vaccinology.

How to evaluate potential non-specific effects of vaccines: the quest for randomized trials or time for triangulation?

INTRODUCTION

Emerging evidence suggests that vaccines, in addition to their disease-specific effects, have important non-specific effects (NSEs), which contribute to their overall effect on mortality and morbidity. Immunological studies have shown that NSEs are biologically plausible. Many advocate that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with overall mortality or morbidity as the outcome are the only way forward to confirm or refute NSEs.

AREAS COVERED

We discuss the limitations of using RCTs only as a tool to evaluate NSEs of vaccines. Such RCTs can be ethically problematic, they are time consuming and expensive. Furthermore, they only assess the NSEs in a given context, but it is inherent in the concept of NSEs that the NSEs of a given vaccine are modified by other immunomodulatory conditions. As an alternative, we propose that triangulation of RCTs and observational studies, merging multiple lines of evidence with different underlying bias structures, can build a strong argument for causality. We examine two examples related to measles vaccine and oral polio vaccine.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

Using RCTs alone to evaluate NSEs of vaccines severely limits the possibilities for studying NSEs. Results from both RCTs and non-RCT studies should be triangulated to strengthen causal interpretation.

Evidence of Increase in Mortality After the Introduction of Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine to Children Aged 6-35 Months in Guinea-Bissau: A Time for Reflection?

Background

Whole-cell diphtheria–tetanus–pertussis (DTP) and oral polio vaccine (OPV) were introduced to children in Guinea-Bissau in 1981. We previously reported that DTP in the target age group from 3 to 5 months of age was associated with higher overall mortality. DTP and OPV were also given to older children and in this study we tested the effect on mortality in children aged 6–35 months.

Methods

In the 1980s, the suburb Bandim in the capital of Guinea-Bissau was followed with demographic surveillance and tri-monthly weighing sessions for children under 3 years of age. From June 1981, routine vaccinations were offered at the weighing sessions. We calculated mortality hazard ratio (HR) for DTP-vaccinated and DTP-unvaccinated children aged 6–35 months using Cox proportional hazard models. Including this study, the introduction of DTP vaccine and child mortality has been studied in three studies; we made a meta-estimate of these studies.

Results

At the first weighing session after the introduction of vaccines, 6–35-month-old children who received DTP vaccination had better weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ) than children who did not receive DTP; one unit increase in WAZ was associated with an odds ratio of 1.32 (95% CI = 1.13–1.55) for receiving DTP vaccination. Though lower mortality compared with not being DTP-vaccinated was, therefore, expected, DTP vaccination was associated with a non-significant trend in the opposite direction, the HR being 2.22 (0.82–6.04) adjusted for WAZ. In a sensitivity analysis, including all children weighed at least once before the vaccination program started, DTP (±OPV) as the most recent vaccination compared with live vaccines or no vaccine was associated with a HR of 1.89 (1.00–3.55). In the three studies of the introduction of DTP in rural and urban Guinea-Bissau, DTP-vaccinated children had an HR of 2.14 (1.42–3.23) compared to DTP-unvaccinated children; this effect was separately significant for girls [HR = 2.60 (1.57–4.32)], but not for boys [HR = 1.71 (0.99–2.93)] (test for interaction p = 0.27).

Conclusion

Although having better nutritional status and being protected against three infections, 6–35 months old DTP-vaccinated children tended to have higher mortality than DTP-unvaccinated children. All studies of the introduction of DTP have found increased overall mortality.

Revised World Health Organization (WHO)'s causality assessment of adverse events following immunization-a critique

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has recently revised how adverse events after immunization (AEFI) are classified. Only reactions that have previously been acknowledged in epidemiological studies to be caused by the vaccine are classified as a vaccine-product–related-reaction. Deaths observed during post-marketing surveillance are not considered as ‘consistent with causal association with vaccine’, if there was no statistically significant increase in deaths recorded during the small Phase 3 trials that preceded it. Of course, vaccines  noted to have caused a significant increase in deaths in the control-trials stage would probably not be licensed. After licensure, deaths and all new serious adverse reactions are labelled as ‘coincidental deaths/events’ or ‘unclassifiable’, and the association with vaccine is not acknowledged. The resulting paradox is evident.

The definition of causal association has also been changed. It is now used only if there is ‘no other factor intervening in the processes’. Therefore, if a child with an underlying congenital heart disease (other factor), develops fever and cardiac decompensation after vaccination, the cardiac failure would not be considered causally related to the vaccine. The Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety has documented many deaths in children with pre-existing heart disease after they were administered the pentavalent vaccine. The WHO now advises precautions when vaccinating such children. This has reduced the risk of death. Using the new definition of causal association, this relationship would not be acknowledged and lives would be put at risk. In view of the above, it is necessary that the AEFI manual be revaluated and revised urgently. AEFI reporting is said to be for vaccine safety. Child safety (safety of children) rather than vaccine safety (safety for vaccines) needs to be the emphasis.

Revised World Health Organization (WHO)'s causality assessment of adverse events following immunization-a critique

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has recently revised how adverse events after immunization (AEFI) are classified. Only reactions that have previously been acknowledged in epidemiological studies to be caused by the vaccine are classified as a vaccine-product-related-reaction. Deaths observed during post-marketing surveillance are not considered as 'consistent with causal association with vaccine', if there was no statistically significant increase in deaths recorded during the small Phase 3 trials that preceded it. Of course, vaccines  noted to have caused a significant increase in deaths in the control-trials stage would probably not be licensed. After licensure, deaths and all new serious adverse reactions are labelled as 'coincidental deaths/events' or 'unclassifiable', and the association with vaccine is not acknowledged. The resulting paradox is evident. The definition of causal association has also been changed. It is now used only if there is 'no other factor intervening in the processes'. Therefore, if a child with an underlying congenital heart disease (other factor), develops fever and cardiac decompensation after vaccination, the cardiac failure would not be considered causally related to the vaccine. The Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety has documented many deaths in children with pre-existing heart disease after they were administered the pentavalent vaccine. The WHO now advises precautions when vaccinating such children. This has reduced the risk of death. Using the new definition of causal association, this relationship would not be acknowledged and lives would be put at risk. In view of the above, it is necessary that the AEFI manual be revaluated and revised urgently. AEFI reporting is said to be for vaccine safety. Child safety (safety of children) rather than vaccine safety (safety for vaccines) needs to be the emphasis.

National Immunization Campaigns with Oral Polio Vaccine Reduce All-Cause Mortality: A Natural Experiment within Seven Randomized Trials

BACKGROUND

A recent WHO review concluded that live BCG and measles vaccine (MV) may have beneficial non-specific effects (NSEs) reducing mortality from non-targeted diseases. NSEs of oral polio vaccine (OPV) were not examined. If OPV vaccination campaigns reduce the mortality rate, it would suggest beneficial NSEs.

SETTING

Between 2002 and 2014, Guinea-Bissau had 15 general OPV campaigns and other campaigns with OPV plus vitamin A supplementation (VAS), VAS-only, MV, and H1N1 vaccine. In this period, we conducted seven randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with mortality as main outcome.

METHODS

Within these RCTs, we assessed whether the mortality rate was lower after-campaign than before-campaign. We used Cox models with age as underlying time and further adjusted for low birth-weight, season and time trend in mortality. We calculated the adjusted mortality rate ratio (MRR) for after-campaign vs before-campaign.

RESULTS

The mortality rate was lower after OPV-only campaigns than before, the MRR being 0.81 (95% CI = 0.68-0.95). With each additional dose of campaign-OPV the mortality rate declined further (MRR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.96) per dose) (test for trend, p = 0.005). No other type of campaign had similar beneficial effects. Depending on initial age and with follow-up to 3 years of age, the number needed to treat with campaign-OPV-only to save one life was between 68 and 230 children.

CONCLUSION

Bissau had no case of polio infection so the results suggest that campaign-OPV has beneficial NSEs. Discontinuation of OPV-campaigns in low-income countries may affect general child mortality levels negatively.

Co-administration of BCG and Diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) Vaccinations May Reduce Infant Mortality More Than the WHO-schedule of BCG First and Then DTP. A Re-analysis of Demographic Surveillance Data From Rural Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

WHO recommends BCG at birth and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP)-containing vaccine at 6, 10 and 14weeks of age. However, BCG and DTP are often co-administered in low-income countries. The health implications have not been examined.

SETTING

We reanalysed data from Matlab, Bangladesh, to examine the influence of co-administration on mortality; 37,894 children born 1986-1999 were followed with registration of vaccinations and survival.

METHODS

Using Cox models, survival was analysed from 6weeks to 9months of age when measles vaccine is given; 712 children died in this age group. We calculated mortality rate ratios (MRR) for children starting the vaccination schedule with BCG-first, BCG+DTP1-first or DTP1-first.

RESULTS

Only 17% followed the WHO-schedule with BCG-first. Mortality was 16/1000 person-years for children who initiated the vaccination schedule with BCG+DTP1 but 32/1000 and 20/1000 for children who received BCG-first or DTP-first, respectively. Compared with BCG+DTP1-first and adjusting for background factors, the BCG-first-schedule was associated with 2-fold higher mortality (MRR=1.94 (1.42-2.63)). DTP1 administered after BCG-first was associated with higher mortality than receiving DTP1 with BCG (MRR=1.78 (1.03-3.03)).

CONCLUSIONS

Co-administration of BCG and DTP may further reduce mortality. Since all observational studies support this trend, co-administration of BCG and DTP should be tested in randomised trials.