Seasonality in ecology: Progress and prospects in theory

Spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal trends in land surface temperature within the distribution range of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) in Southern and Southeastern Iran

Temperature fluctuations and related factors are among the main causes of climate change. Understanding the temporal and spatial variations in temperature can shed light on how species respond to climate change. Plants generally persist in suitable microclimates in response to environmental change; however, examining long-term temperature variations within a species' range can be challenging using field observations. Thermal remote sensing, on the other hand, provides multi-scale time-series data with good coverage and regularity to overcome the challenges associated with field observations in environmental monitoring. Although changes in land surface temperature (LST) affect climate, hydrological processes, land-atmosphere interactions, and ecological activities, this metric has not received much research attention. This study aimed to analyze changes in habitat suitability and microclimatic conditions for Moringa peregrina. Seasonal changes in LST within the distribution range of the species were also investigated. To this aim, mean seasonal LST was computed in Google Earth Engine using the daily MODIS/006/MYD13A2 product from 2003 to 2023. Subsequently, a binary habitat suitability map was created based on the true skill statistic (TSS). The Mann-Kendall test was used to analyze seasonal LST trends. Major trends in LST were quantified based on the z-score, and compatibility with habitat suitability was evaluated via GAP analysis and the Kappa index. Seasonal temperature trends were evaluated by comparing each season with the following season using binary comparison. Landforms at presence points were regarded as microclimates and the sensitivity of microclimates to LST was evaluated using two methods: Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to quantify seasonal LST heterogeneity and the random forest (RF) approach was used to evaluate the effect of environmental parameters on habitat suitability within microclimates. The Kappa index revealed a weak overlapping between suitable / unsuitable habitat and the surfaces affected by the trend of changes. Moreover, the suitable habitat of Moringa peregrina in spring, autumn and winter is spatially overlapped by areas that have shown an increasing LST trend, and the presence points have not experienced an increasing temperature trend only in the summer. The findings show that the analysis of seasonal trends in LST provides insights into the effect of LST on habitat suitability and the condition of vegetation. The current study clearly shows that seasonal changes have had a significant impact on the distribution and habitat suitability of M. peregrina, particularly during summer and winter. Improved habitat suitability and range expansion were observed throughout the year. The study also highlights the role of landforms in regulating temperature. Landforms such as local ridges with minimal temperature fluctuations and regions near the Oman Sea were identified as potential future habitats due to favorable humidity conditions.

Exotic plants introduction changed soil nutrient cycle and symbiotic relationship with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in wetland ecological projects

In the process of applying exotic plants to wetland ecological restoration, insufficiently evaluated alien species may exhibit strong competitiveness and fecundity. Once introduced, they can displace native flora, disrupt the original ecological balance, diminish biodiversity, and even induce ecosystem dysfunction. Furthermore, exotic plants have the potential to alter soil microbial community structure, including the composition and activity of beneficial symbiotic microorganisms such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), thereby impacting soil nutrient cycling and interplant nutrient competition. Here, we conducted three consecutive years of sampling experiments to investigate the succession of AMF communities associated with the invasive plant Spartina alterniflora along an initial introduction chronosequence, and to identify the key environmental factors influencing its response to S. alterniflora invasion. Our findings reveal that early-stage invasion by S. alterniflora alters the composition of soil AMF communities with unclassified_c__Glomeromycetes and Glomus-viscosum-VTX00063 consistently dominating. Additionally, as the duration of introduction increases, the diversity of rhizosphere soil AMF significantly decreases, while its evenness remains relatively stable. It's indicated that soil ω, AN, AK and N/P ratio were the main influencing factors of the integral AMF community. Notably, soil available phosphorus (AP) emerges as a positive influence on the important AMF taxa. The results confirm the mutual feedback effect between the invasion of the perennial herb S. alterniflora and AMF, in which specific AMF assist in nutrient absorption to promote S. alterniflora growth, potentially facilitating its rapid and successful invasion of new habitats. Given the likely differential effects of AMF communities on various plant species, our findings could contribute to anticipating future AMF-mediated effects during the introduction of alien plants.

How seasonality influences the thermal biology of lizards with different thermoregulatory strategies: a meta-analysis

Ectotherms that maintain thermal balance in the face of varying climates should be able to colonise a wide range of habitats. In lizards, thermoregulation usually appears as a variety of behaviours that buffer external influences over physiology. Basking species rely on solar radiation to raise body temperatures and usually show high thermoregulatory precision. By contrast, species that do not bask are often constrained by climatic conditions in their habitats, thus having lower thermoregulatory precision. While much focus has been given to the effects of mean habitat temperatures, relatively less is known about how seasonality affects the thermal biology of lizards on a macroecological scale. Considering the current climate crisis, assessing how lizards cope with temporal variations in environmental temperature is essential to understand better how these organisms will fare under climate change. Activity body temperatures (Tb ) represent the internal temperature of an animal measured in nature during its active period (i.e. realised thermal niche), and preferred body temperatures (Tpref ) are those selected by an animal in a laboratory thermal gradient that lacks thermoregulatory costs (i.e. fundamental thermal niche). Both traits form the bulk of thermal ecology research and are often studied in the context of seasonality. In this study, we used a meta-analysis to test how environmental temperature seasonality influences the seasonal variation in the Tb and Tpref of lizards that differ in thermoregulatory strategy (basking versus non-basking). Based on 333 effect sizes from 137 species, we found that Tb varied over a greater magnitude than Tpref across seasons. Variations in Tb were not influenced by environmental temperature seasonality; however, body size and thermoregulatory strategy mediated Tb responses. Specifically, larger species were subjected to greater seasonal variations in Tb , and basking species endured greater seasonal variations in Tb compared to non-basking species. On the other hand, the seasonal variation in Tpref increased with environmental temperature seasonality regardless of body size. Thermoregulatory strategy also influenced Tpref , suggesting that behaviour has an important role in mediating Tpref responses to seasonal variations in the thermal landscape. After controlling for phylogenetic effects, we showed that Tb and Tpref varied significantly across lizard families. Taken together, our results support the notion that the relationship between thermal biology responses and climatic parameters can be taxon and trait dependent. Our results also showcase the importance of considering ecological and behavioural aspects in macroecological studies. We further highlight current systematic, geographical, and knowledge gaps in thermal ecology research. Our work should benefit those who aim to understand more fully how seasonality shapes thermal biology in lizards, ultimately contributing to the goal of elucidating the evolution of temperature-sensitive traits in ectotherms.

Linking African herbivore community enamel isotopes and environments: challenges, opportunities, and paleoecological implications

Paleoenvironmental reconstructions of fossil sites based on isotopic analyses of enamel typically rely on data from multiple herbivore taxa, with the assumption that this dietary spectrum represents the community's isotopic range and provides insights into local or regional vegetation patterns. However, it remains unclear how representative the sampled taxa are of the broader herbivore community and how well these data correspond to specific ecosystems. Verifying these underlying assumptions is essential to refining the utility of enamel isotopic values for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. This study explores potential links between modern herbivore community carbon isotopic enamel spectra, biome types, and climate in sub-Saharan Africa. This region is one of the most comprehensively isotopically sampled areas globally and is of particular relevance to hominin evolution. Our extensive data compilation reveals that published enamel isotopic data from sub-Saharan Africa typically sample only a small percentage of the taxa documented at most localities and that some biome types (e.g., subtropical savannas) are dramatically overrepresented relative to others (e.g., forests) in these modern data sets. Multiple statistical analyses, including linear models and cluster analyses, revealed weak relationships of associated mammalian herbivore enamel isotopic values, biome type, and climate parameters. These results confound any simple assumptions about how community isotopic profiles map onto specific environments, highlighting the need for more precise strategic approaches in extending isotopic frameworks into the past for paleoecological reconstructions. Developing more refined modern analogs will ultimately allow us to more accurately characterize the isotopic spectra of paleo-communities and link isotopic dietary signatures to specific ecosystems.

Global analysis of seasonal changes in trematode infection levels reveals weak and variable link to temperature

Seasonal changes in environmental conditions drive phenology, i.e., the annual timing of biological events ranging from the individual to the ecosystem. Phenological patterns and successional abundance cycles have been particularly well studied in temperate freshwater systems, showing strong and predictable synchrony with seasonal changes. However, seasonal successional changes in the abundance of parasites or their infection levels in aquatic hosts have not yet been shown to follow universal patterns. Here, using a compilation of several hundred estimates of spring-to-summer changes in infection by trematodes in their intermediate and definitive hosts, spanning multiple species and habitats, we test for general patterns of seasonal (temperature) driven changes in infection levels. The data include almost as many decreases in infection levels from spring to summer as there are increases, across different host types. Our results reveal that the magnitude of the spring-to-summer change in temperature had a weak positive effect on the concurrent change in prevalence of infection in first intermediate hosts, but no effect on the change in prevalence or abundance of infection in second intermediate or definitive hosts. This was true across habitat types and host taxa, indicating no universal effect of seasonal temperature increase on trematode infections. This surprising variation across systems suggests a predominance of idiosyncratic and species-specific responses in trematode infection levels, at odds with any clear phenological or successional pattern. We discuss possible reasons for the minimal and variable effect of seasonal temperature regimes, and emphasise the challenges this poses for predicting ecosystem responses to future climate change.

Microbial interactions strengthen deterministic processes during community assembly in a subtropical estuary

Systematic studies on the assembly process and driving mechanisms of microbial communities in estuaries with diverse seasonal and spatial scales are still limited. In this study, high-throughput sequencing, and microbial network analysis were combined to decipher the impact of environmental changes and biological interactions on the maintenance of microbial diversity patterns in the Jiulong River Estuary (JRE). The results showed that overall, stochastic processes dominated the bacterioplankton community assembly in the estuary, accounting for 49.66-74.78 % of the total. Additionally, bacterioplankton community diversity varied significantly across seasons and subzones. Specifically, the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in the estuary steadily reduced from winter to summer, and the corresponding bacterioplankton community interactions gradually shifted from the weakest interaction in winter to the strongest in summer. The deterministic processes contributed more than half (50.34 %) to microbial assembly in the summer, but only 25.22 % in winter. Deterministic processes prevailed in the seaward with low SRP concentrations and strong bacterioplankton community interactions, while stochastic processes contributed 70.14 % to the assembly of microbial communities riverward. Biotic and abiotic factors, such as nutrients and microbial interactions, jointly drove the seasonal and spatial patterns of bacterioplankton community assembly, but overall, nutrients played a dominant role. Nevertheless, the contributions of nutrients and microbial interactions were equivalent in spatial assembly processes, albeit nutrients were the primary seasonal driver of the bacterioplankton community assembly process. This study emphasizes the significance of microbial interactions in the bacterioplankton community assemblage. These findings provide new and comprehensive insights into the microbial communities' organization in estuaries.

Signatures of autumn deluges revealed during spring drought in a semi-arid grassland

Increases in extremely large precipitation events (deluges) and shifts in seasonal patterns of water availability with climate change will both have important consequences for ecosystem function, particularly in water-limited regions. While previous work in the semi-arid shortgrass steppe of northeastern Colorado has demonstrated this ecosystem's strong sensitivity to growing season deluges, our understanding of ecosystem responses to deluges during the dormant season is limited. Here, we imposed experimental 100 mm deluges (~ 30% of mean annual precipitation) in either September or October in a native C4-dominated shortgrass steppe ecosystem to evaluate the impact of this post-growing season shift in water availability during the autumn and the following growing season. Soil moisture for both deluge treatments remained elevated compared with ambient levels through April as spring precipitation was atypically low. Despite overall low levels of productivity with spring drought, these deluges from the previous autumn increased aboveground net primary production (ANPP), primarily due to increases with C4 grasses. C3 ANPP was also enhanced, largely due to an increase in the annual C3 grass, Vulpia octoflora, in the October deluge treatment. While spring precipitation has historically been the primary determinant of ecosystem function in this ecosystem, this combination of two climate extremes-an extremely wet autumn followed by a naturally-occurring spring drought-revealed the potential for meaningful carryover effects from autumn precipitation. With climate change increasing the likelihood of extremes during all seasons, experiments which create novel climatic conditions can provide new insight into the dynamics of ecosystem functioning in the future.

Bridging theory and experiments of priority effects

Priority effects play a key role in structuring natural communities, but considerable confusion remains about how they affect different ecological systems. Synthesizing previous studies, we show that this confusion arises because the mechanisms driving priority and the temporal scale at which they operate differ among studies, leading to divergent outcomes in species interactions and biodiversity patterns. We suggest grouping priority effects into two functional categories based on their mechanisms: frequency-dependent priority effects that arise from positive frequency dependence, and trait-dependent priority effects that arise from time-dependent changes in interacting traits. Through easy quantification of these categories from experiments, we can construct community models representing diverse biological mechanisms and interactions with priority effects, therefore better predicting their consequences across ecosystems.

The role of seasonal migration in spatial population synchrony

Spatially synchronized population dynamics are common in nature, and understanding their causes is key for predicting species persistence. A main driver of synchrony between populations of the same species is shared environmental conditions, which cause populations closer together in space to be more synchronized than populations further from one another. Most theoretical and empirical understanding of this driver considers resident species. For migratory species, however, the degree of spatial autocorrelation in the environment may change across seasons and vary by their geographic location along the migratory route or on a nonbreeding ground, complicating the synchronizing effect of the environment. Migratory species show a variety of different strategies in how they disperse to and aggregate on nonbreeding grounds, ranging from completely shared nonbreeding grounds to multiple different ones. Depending on the sensitivity to environmental conditions off the breeding grounds, we can expect that migration and overwintering strategies will impact the extent and spatial pattern of population synchrony on the breeding grounds. Here, we use spatial population-dynamic modeling and simulations to investigate the relationship between seasonal environmental autocorrelation and migration characteristics. Our model shows that the effects of environmental autocorrelation experienced off the breeding ground on population synchrony depend on the number and size of nonbreeding grounds, and how populations migrate in relation to neighboring populations. When populations migrated to multiple nonbreeding grounds, spatial population synchrony increased with increasing environmental autocorrelation between nonbreeding grounds. Populations that migrated to the same place as near neighbors had higher synchrony at short distances than populations that migrated randomly. However, synchrony declined less across increasing distances for the random migration strategy. The differences in synchrony between migration strategies were most pronounced when the environmental autocorrelation between nonbreeding grounds was low. These results show the importance of considering migration when studying spatial population synchrony and predicting patterns of synchrony and population viability under global environmental change. Climate change and habitat loss and fragmentation may cause range shifts and changes in migratory strategies, as well as changes in the mean and spatial autocorrelation of the environment, which can alter the scale and patterns observed in spatial population synchrony.

Stability of consumer-resource interactions in periodic environments

Periodic fluctuations in abiotic conditions are ubiquitous across a range of temporal scales and regulate the structure and function of ecosystems through dynamic biotic responses that are adapted to these external forces. Research has suggested that certain environmental signatures may play a crucial role in the maintenance of biodiversity and the stability of food webs, while others argue that coupled oscillators ought to promote chaos. As such, numerous uncertainties remain regarding the intersection of temporal environmental patterns and biological responses, and we lack a general understanding of the implications for food web stability. Alarmingly, global change is altering the nature of both environmental rhythms and biological rates. Here, we develop a general theory for how continuous periodic variation in productivity, across temporal scales, influences the stability of consumer-resource interactions: a fundamental building block of food webs. Our results suggest that consumer-resource dynamics under environmental forcing are highly complex and depend on asymmetries in both the speed of forcing relative to underlying dynamics and in local stability properties. These asymmetries allow for environmentally driven stabilization under fast forcing, relative to underlying dynamics, as well as extremely complex and unstable dynamics at slower periodicities. Our results also suggest that changes in naturally occurring periodicities from climate change may lead to precipitous shifts in dynamics and stability.

Stage-mediated priority effects and season lengths shape long-term competition dynamics

The relative arrival time of species can affect their interactions and thus determine which species persist in a community. Although this phenomenon, called priority effect, is widespread in natural communities, it is unclear how it depends on the length of growing season. Using a seasonal stage-structured model, we show that differences in stages of interacting species could generate priority effects by altering the strength of stabilizing and equalizing coexistence mechanisms, changing outcomes between exclusion, coexistence and positive frequency dependence. However, these priority effects are strongest in systems with just one or a few generations per season and diminish in systems where many overlapping generations per season dilute the importance of stage-specific interactions. Our model reveals a novel link between the number of generations in a season and the consequences of priority effects, suggesting that consequences of phenological shifts driven by climate change should depend on specific life histories of organisms.

Periodic temporal environmental variations induce coexistence in resource competition models

Natural ecosystems, in particular on the microbial scale, are inhabited by a large number of species. The population size of each species is affected by interactions of individuals with each other and by spatial and temporal changes in environmental conditions, such as resource abundance. Here, we use a generic population dynamics model to study how, and under what conditions, a periodic temporal environmental variation can alter an ecosystem's composition and biodiversity. We demonstrate that using timescale separation allows one to qualitatively predict the long-term population dynamics of interacting species in varying environments. We show that the notion of Tilman's R* rule, a well-known principle that applies for constant environments, can be extended to periodically varying environments if the timescale of environmental changes (e.g., seasonal variations) is much faster than the timescale of population growth (doubling time in bacteria). When these timescales are similar, our analysis shows that a varying environment deters the system from reaching a steady state, and stable coexistence between multiple species becomes possible. Our results posit that biodiversity can in part be attributed to natural environmental variations.

Climate change is not just global warming: Multidimensional impacts on animal gut microbiota

Climate change has rapidly altered many ecosystems, with detrimental effects for biodiversity across the globe. In recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that the microorganisms that live in and on animals can substantially affect host health and physiology, and the structure and function of these microbial communities can be highly sensitive to environmental variables. To date, most studies have focused on the effects of increasing mean temperature on gut microbiota, yet other aspects of climate are also shifting, including temperature variation, seasonal dynamics, precipitation and the frequency of severe weather events. This array of environmental pressures might interact in complex and non-intuitive ways to impact gut microbiota and consequently alter animal fitness. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on animals requires a consideration of multiple types of environmental stressors and their interactive effects on gut microbiota. Here, we present an overview of some of the major findings in research on climatic effects on microbial communities in the animal gut. Although ample evidence has now accumulated that shifts in mean temperature can have important effects on gut microbiota and their hosts, much less work has been conducted on the effects of other climatic variables and their interactions. We provide recommendations for additional research needed to mechanistically link climate change with shifts in animal gut microbiota and host fitness.

Using individual-based bioenergetic models to predict the aggregate effects of disturbance on populations: A case study with beaked whales and Navy sonar

Anthropogenic activities can lead to changes in animal behavior. Predicting population consequences of these behavioral changes requires integrating short-term individual responses into models that forecast population dynamics across multiple generations. This is especially challenging for long-lived animals, because of the different time scales involved. Beaked whales are a group of deep-diving odontocete whales that respond behaviorally when exposed to military mid-frequency active sonar (MFAS), but the effect of these nonlethal responses on beaked whale populations is unknown. Population consequences of aggregate exposure to MFAS was assessed for two beaked whale populations that are regularly present on U.S. Navy training ranges where MFAS is frequently used. Our approach integrates a wide range of data sources, including telemetry data, information on spatial variation in habitat quality, passive acoustic data on the temporal pattern of sonar use and its relationship to beaked whale foraging activity, into an individual-based model with a dynamic bioenergetic module that governs individual life history. The predicted effect of disturbance from MFAS on population abundance ranged between population extinction to a slight increase in population abundance. These effects were driven by the interaction between the temporal pattern of MFAS use, baseline movement patterns, the spatial distribution of prey, the nature of beaked whale behavioral response to MFAS and the top-down impact of whale foraging on prey abundance. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for monitoring of marine mammal populations and highlight key uncertainties to help guide future directions for assessing population impacts of nonlethal disturbance for these and other long-lived animals.

Monitoring spatiotemporal impacts of changes in land surface temperature on near eastern fire salamander (Salamandra infraimmaculata) in the Middle East

Persistence and coexistence of many pond-breeding amphibians depend on seasonality. Temperature, as a seasonal climate component, affects numerous physical and biological processes of pond-breeding amphibians. Satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land surface, which has received less attention in spatiotemporal seasonal habitat monitoring. The present study aims to evaluate the increasing and decreasing effects of LST trends at two levels: (1) habitat suitability and connectivity; (2) individual population sites and their longitudinal distribution (with increasing longitude). Habitat suitability modeling was conducted based on an ensemble species distribution model (eSDM). Using electrical circuit theory, the connectivity of interior and intact habitat cores was investigated. An average seasonal LST was prepared separately for each season from 2003 to 2021 and entered into Mann-Kendall (MK) analysis to determine the spatiotemporal effects of LST changes using the Z-Score (ZMK) at two confidence levels of 95 and 99%. Based on the results, in winter, 28.12% and 70.70% of the suitable habitat were affected by an increasing trend of LST at 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively. The highest spatial overlap of the decreasing trend of LST with the suitable habitat occurred in summer and was 6.4% at the 95% confidence level and 4.2% at the 99% confidence level. Considering population site at 95% confidence interval, the increasing trend of LST was calculated to be 20.2%, 9.5%, 4.2%, and 6.3% of localities in winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. At the 99% confidence level, these percentages reduced to 8.5%, 3.1%, 1%, and 1%, respectively. During winter and summer, based on the results of the longitudinal trend, an increasing trend of LST was observed in sites. Localities of Hatay and Iica village in Turkey experienced seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes. The approach used in this study allowed us to create a link between the life cycle and seasonal changes on a micro-scale (breeding sites) and macro-scale (distribution and connectivity). Findings of this paper can be effectively used by conservation managers to preserve S. infraimmaculata's metapopulation.

Seasonality and assembly of soil microbial communities in coastal salt marshes invaded by a perennial grass

Plant invasion profoundly changes the microbial-driven processes in the ecosystem; however, the seasonality of soil microbial communities and their assembly under plant invasion is poorly understood. In this study, coastal salt marshes with native Suaeda salsa (L.) Pall. and exotic Spartina alterniflora Loisel. in the Yellow River Estuary, North China, were selected, and soil bacterial and fungal communities and their seasonal variance were characterized by metabarcoding sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene and ITS2 regions, respectively. The importance of deterministic and stochastic processes in shaping bacterial and fungal seasonal assembly was explored by the null model. Results showed that soil microbes exhibited the lowest diversities in spring, while their diversity significantly improved in summer and autumn with the increase in organic carbon and nitrogen content in soils. Strong seasonal variances in microbial communities were observed, but plant invasion reduced the seasonal variation strength of soil bacteria. For the microbial assembly, the seasonal variability of soil bacterial community was mainly controlled by homogeneous selection, whereas soil fungal community was dominantly structured by stochastic processes. Among the selected variables, soil pH was the key abiotic factor driving the seasonal changes in bacteria and fungi. The microbial function annotation derived from taxonomy-based inference suggested that carbon metabolism was relatively stronger in spring, but nitrogen and sulfur metabolism increased evidently in summer and autumn, and the proportion of saprophytic fungi increased substantially after plant invasion. The seasonal turnover of bacterial and fungal groups were tightly associated with the seasonal variation in soil carbon and nitrogen contents. Collectively, these findings reveal the strong seasonal variability of different soil microbial constituents in plant-invaded coastal salt marshes and suggest the linkage between microbial community assembly and microbial-mediated functions in the context of plant invasions.

Seasonality and growth in tropical freshwater ectotherm vertebrates: Results from 1‐year experimentation in the African gray bichir, giraffe catfish, and the West African mud turtle

Growth in ectotherm vertebrates is strongly rhythmed by seasonal variation in environmental parameters. To track the seasonal variation in ancient times in a continental and tropical context, we aim to develop a method based on the use of the growth rate of fossil ectotherm vertebrates (actinopterygians and chelonians) influenced by seasonal environmental fluctuations they experienced in their lifetime. However, the impact of environmental parameters on growth, positive or negative, and its intensity, depends on the taxa considered, and data are scarce for tropical species. For 1 year, an experiment was conducted to better understand the effect of seasonal variation in environmental parameters (food abundance, temperature, and photoperiod) on the somatic growth rate of three species of tropical freshwater ectotherm vertebrates: the fishes Polypterus senegalus and Auchenoglanis occidentalis and the turtle Pelusios castaneus. Mimicking seasonal shifts expected to be experienced by the animals in the wild, the experiment highlighted the preponderant effect of food abundance on the growth rate of those three species. Water temperature variation had a significant effect on the growth rate of Po. senegalus and Pe. castaneus. Moreover, the photoperiod demonstrated no significant effect on the growth of the three species. The duration of application of starvation or cool water conditions, ranging from 1 to 3 months, did not affect the growth rate of the animals. However, Pelusios castaneus showed a temporary sensitivity to the return of ad libitum feeding or of warm water, after a period of starvation or cool water, by a period of compensatory growth. Finally, this experiment revealed, in the three species, fluctuations in the growth rate under controlled and constant conditions. This variation, similar to the variation in precipitation and temperature observed in their native environment, could be linked to a strong effect of an internal rhythm controlling somatic growth rate.

Seasonal variation in effect of anti-PD-1 initiation on overall survival among patients with advanced melanoma

Melanoma is a highly immunogenic cancer, and circannual rhythms influence the activity of the immune system. We retrospectively collected information on all cases with metastatic melanoma (ocular melanoma excluded) that initiated treatment with BRAF-inhibitor-based therapy (BRAFi) or anti-PD-1 monotherapy (PD-1). Cases were divided in two groups based on treatment initiation in the summer half-year (April to September) or winter half-year (October to March). We collected a total of 1054 (BRAF-i) and 1205 (PD-1) patient cases. Median follow-up was 39.7 (BRAFi) and 47.5 (PD-1) months. We did not observe differences in outcomes across patients who were treated in summer versus winter in the BRAFi cohort. Furthermore, we did not observe significant differences in ORR, CRR, and PFS in the PD-1 cohort. However, in patients with BRAF wild-type disease of the PD-1 cohort, treatment initiation in summer was associated with an improved OS (mOS 39.7 months [summer] versus 21.3 months [winter]; HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57-0.86, p = .0007). This result remained robust to multivariable proportional hazards adjustment (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57-0.87, p = .001). Initiation of immunotherapy in summer is associated with prolonged survival in patients with BRAF wild-type melanoma living in Denmark.

The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe

Climate change has had a major impact on seasonal weather patterns, resulting in marked phenological changes in a wide range of taxa. However, empirical studies of how changes in seasonality impact the emergence and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases have been limited. Lyme borreliosis, a bacterial infection spread by hard-bodied ticks, is the most common vector-borne disease in the northern hemisphere and has been rapidly increasing in both incidence and geographical distribution in many regions of Europe and North America. By analysis of long-term surveillance data (1995-2019) from across Norway (latitude 57°58'-71°08' N), we demonstrate a marked change in the within-year timing of Lyme borreliosis cases accompanying an increase in the annual number of cases. The seasonal peak in cases is now six weeks earlier than 25 years ago, exceeding seasonal shifts in plant phenology and previous model predictions. The seasonal shift occurred predominantly in the first 10 years of the study period. The concurrent upsurgence in case number and shift in case timing indicate a major change in the Lyme borreliosis disease system over recent decades. This study highlights the potential for climate change to shape the seasonal dynamics of vector-borne disease systems.

Comparing Ant Assemblages and Functional Groups across Urban Habitats and Seasons in an East Asia Monsoon Climate Area

China's East Asia monsoon zone is undergoing rapid land-use conversion and urbanization. Safeguarding remaining biodiversity requires reducing, mitigating, and/or eliminating the negative impacts of human-induced landscape modification. In this study, we sampled ground-dwelling ants at 40 plots over 12 continuous months in a suburban area in southwestern China to examine whether and how vegetation composition and habitat fragmentation affected species richness and assemblage composition for the general ant community and, specifically, for principal functional groups (including Opportunists and Generalized Myrmicinae). Warmer seasons were associated with a higher capture rate for all functional groups. Patterns of ant species richness among Opportunists were more sensitive to vegetation and fragmentation than for Generalized Myrmicinae, and these effects generally varied with season. Patterns of ant assemblage composition for Opportunists were exclusively sensitive to vegetation, whereas Generalized Myrmicinae were sensitive to both vegetation and fragmentation with variation among seasons. Overall, our findings highlight the important role of seasonality, vegetation composition, and habitat fragmentation in mediating the impacts of human-induced landscape modification on urbanized ant communities, which make an essential functional contribution to biodiversity in the East Asia monsoon zone.

Towards the fully automated monitoring of ecological communities

High-resolution monitoring is fundamental to understand ecosystems dynamics in an era of global change and biodiversity declines. While real-time and automated monitoring of abiotic components has been possible for some time, monitoring biotic components-for example, individual behaviours and traits, and species abundance and distribution-is far more challenging. Recent technological advancements offer potential solutions to achieve this through: (i) increasingly affordable high-throughput recording hardware, which can collect rich multidimensional data, and (ii) increasingly accessible artificial intelligence approaches, which can extract ecological knowledge from large datasets. However, automating the monitoring of facets of ecological communities via such technologies has primarily been achieved at low spatiotemporal resolutions within limited steps of the monitoring workflow. Here, we review existing technologies for data recording and processing that enable automated monitoring of ecological communities. We then present novel frameworks that combine such technologies, forming fully automated pipelines to detect, track, classify and count multiple species, and record behavioural and morphological traits, at resolutions which have previously been impossible to achieve. Based on these rapidly developing technologies, we illustrate a solution to one of the greatest challenges in ecology: the ability to rapidly generate high-resolution, multidimensional and standardised data across complex ecologies.

Evolution in fluctuating environments: A generic modular approach

Evolutionary processes take place in fluctuating environments, where carrying capacities and selective forces vary over time. The fate of a mutant type and the persistence time of polymorphic states were studied in some specific cases of varying environments, but a generic methodology is still lacking. Here, we present such a general analytic framework. We first identify a set of elementary building blocks, a few basic demographic processes like logistic or exponential growth, competition at equilibrium, sudden decline, and so on. For each of these elementary blocks, we evaluate the mean and the variance of the changes in the frequency of the mutant population. Finally, we show how to find the relevant terms of the diffusion equation for each arbitrary combination of these blocks. Armed with this technique one may calculate easily the quantities that govern the evolutionary dynamics, like the chance of ultimate fixation, the time to absorption, and the time to fixation.

Dispersal-induced growth in a time-periodic environment

Dispersal-induced growth (DIG) occurs when several populations with time-varying growth rates, each of which, when isolated, would become extinct, are able to persist and grow exponentially when dispersal among the populations is present. This work provides a mathematical exploration of this surprising phenomenon, in the context of a deterministic model with periodic variation of growth rates, and characterizes the factors which are important in generating the DIG effect, and the corresponding conditions on the parameters involved.

Invasive grass indirectly alters seasonal patterns in seed predation

Invasive species threaten ecosystems globally, but their impacts can be cryptic when they occur indirectly. Invader phenology can also differ from that of native species, potentially causing seasonality in invader impacts. Yet, it is unclear if invader phenology can drive seasonal patterns in indirect effects. We used a field experiment to test if an invasive grass (Imperata cylindrica) caused seasonal indirect effects by altering rodent foraging and seed predation patterns through time. Using seeds from native longleaf pine (Pinus palustris), we found seed predation was 25% greater, on average, in invaded than control plots, but this effect varied by season. Seed predation was 24-157% greater in invaded plots during spring and autumn months, but invasion had no effect on seed predation in other months. One of the largest effects occurred in October when longleaf pine seeds are dispersed, suggesting potential effects on tree regeneration. Thus, seasonal patterns in indirect effects from invaders may cause underappreciated impacts on ecological communities.

Population-specific association of Clock gene polymorphism with annual cycle timing in stonechats

Timing is essential for survival and reproduction of organisms across the tree of life. The core circadian clock gene Clk is involved in the regulation of annual timing events and shows highly conserved sequence homology across vertebrates except for one variable region of poly-glutamine repeats. Clk genotype varies in some species with latitude, seasonal timing and migration. However, findings are inconsistent, difficult to disentangle from environmental responses, and biased towards high latitudes. Here we combine field data with a common-garden experiment to study associations of Clk polymorphism with latitude, migration and annual-cycle timing within the stonechat species complex across its trans-equatorial distribution range. Our dataset includes 950 records from 717 individuals from nine populations with diverse migratory strategies. Gene diversity was lowest in resident African and Canary Island populations and increased with latitude, independently of migration distance. Repeat length and annual-cycle timing was linked in a population-specific way. Specifically, equatorial African stonechats showed delayed timing with longer repeat length for all annual-cycle stages. Our data suggest that at low latitudes with nearly constant photoperiod, Clk genotype might orchestrate a range of consistent, individual chronotypes. In contrast, the influence of Clk on annual-cycle timing at higher latitudes might be mediated by its interactions with genes involved in (circadian) photoperiodic pathways.

Coupled changes in pH, temperature, and dissolved oxygen impact the physiology and ecology of herbivorous kelp forest grazers

Understanding species' responses to upwelling may be especially important in light of ongoing environmental change. Upwelling frequency and intensity are expected to increase in the future, while ocean acidification and deoxygenation are expected to decrease the pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) of upwelled waters. However, the acute effects of a single upwelling event and the integrated effects of multiple upwelling events on marine organisms are poorly understood. Here, we use in situ measurements of pH, temperature, and DO to characterize the covariance of environmental conditions within upwelling-dominated kelp forest ecosystems. We then test the effects of acute (0-3 days) and chronic (1-3 months) upwelling on the performance of two species of kelp forest grazers, the echinoderm, Mesocentrotus franciscanus, and the gastropod, Promartynia pulligo. We exposed organisms to static conditions in a regression design to determine the shape of the relationship between upwelling and performance and provide insights into the potential effects in a variable environment. We found that respiration, grazing, growth, and net calcification decline linearly with increasing upwelling intensity for M. francicanus over both acute and chronic timescales. Promartynia pulligo exhibited decreased respiration, grazing, and net calcification with increased upwelling intensity after chronic exposure, but we did not detect an effect over acute timescales or on growth after chronic exposure. Given the highly correlated nature of pH, temperature, and DO in the California Current, our results suggest the relationship between upwelling intensity and growth in the 3-month trial could potentially be used to estimate growth integrated over long-term dynamic oceanographic conditions for M. franciscanus. Together, these results indicate current exposure to upwelling may reduce species performance and predicted future increases in upwelling frequency and intensity could affect ecosystem function by modifying the ecological roles of key species.

The effects of random and seasonal environmental fluctuations on optimal harvesting and stocking

We analyze the harvesting and stocking of a population that is affected by random and seasonal environmental fluctuations. The main novelty comes from having three layers of environmental fluctuations. The first layer is due to the environment switching at random times between different environmental states. This is similar to having sudden environmental changes or catastrophes. The second layer is due to seasonal variation, where there is a significant change in the dynamics between seasons. Finally, the third layer is due to the constant presence of environmental stochasticity-between the seasonal or random regime switches, the species is affected by fluctuations which can be modelled by white noise. This framework is more realistic because it can capture both significant random and deterministic environmental shifts as well as small and frequent fluctuations in abiotic factors. Our framework also allows for the price or cost of harvesting to change deterministically and stochastically, something that is more realistic from an economic point of view. The combined effects of seasonal and random fluctuations make it impossible to find the optimal harvesting-stocking strategy analytically. We get around this roadblock by developing rigorous numerical approximations and proving that they converge to the optimal harvesting-stocking strategy. We apply our methods to multiple population models and explore how prices, or costs, and environmental fluctuations influence the optimal harvesting-stocking strategy. We show that in many situations the optimal way of harvesting and stocking is not of threshold type.

How the storage effect and the number of temporal niches affect biodiversity in stochastic and seasonal environments

Temporal environmental variations affect diversity in communities of competing populations. In particular, the covariance between competition and environment is known to facilitate invasions of rare species via the storage effect. Here we present a quantitative study of the effects of temporal variations in two-species and in diverse communities. Four scenarios are compared: environmental variations may be either periodic (seasonal) or stochastic, and the dynamics may support the storage effect (global competition) or not (local competition). In two-species communities, coexistence is quantified via the mean time to absorption, and we show that stochastic variations yield shorter persistence time because they allow for rare sequences of bad years. In diverse communities, where the steady-state reflects a colonization-extinction equilibrium, the actual number of temporal niches is shown to play a crucial role. When this number is large, the same trends hold: storage effect and periodic variations increase both species richness and the evenness of the community. Surprisingly, when the number of temporal niches is small global competition acts to decrease species richness and evenness, as it focuses the competition to specific periods, thus increasing the effective fitness differences.

One of the major challenges of community ecology and population genetics is the understanding of the factors that protect biodiversity. Surprisingly, in many generic cases temporal environmental variations (and the abundance fluctuations associated with it) promote the coexistence of competing species and facilitate genetic polymorphism. Here we present a detailed and quantitative comparison between the stabilizing (and the destabilizing) effects of periodic (seasonal) and stochastic temporal variations. When the number of species is small, we show that persistence times under periodic variations are much longer than the persistence times in a stochastic environment. However, environmental variations facilitate coexistence only when the number of temporal niches is larger than the number of species, whereas in the opposite case the same mechanism acts to increase competition and to decrease species richness. Since it is reasonable to expect the number of temporal niches under seasonal variations to be typically smaller than the corresponding number in stochastic environments, stochastic variations provide a more plausible explanation for the apparent stability of high-diversity assemblages.

Shifting seasonal patterns of water availability: ecosystem responses to an unappreciated dimension of climate change

Seasonal patterns of water availability can differ dramatically among ecosystems, with well-known consequences for ecosystem structure and functioning. Less appreciated is that climate change can shift the seasonality of water availability (e.g. to wetter springs, drier summers), resulting in both subtle and profound ecological impacts. Here we (1) review evidence that the seasonal availability of water is being altered in ecosystems worldwide, (2) explore several mechanisms potentially driving these changes, and (3) highlight the breadth of ecological consequences resulting from shifts in the seasonality of water availability. We conclude that seasonal patterns of water availability are changing globally, but in regionally specific ways requiring more rigorous and nuanced assessments of ecosystem vulnerability as well as the ecological consequences.

Climate variability and density-dependent population dynamics: Lessons from a simple High Arctic ecosystem

Whether the renowned population cycles of small mammals in northern food webs are driven by bottom-up (plant–herbivore) or top-down (predator–prey) interactions is still a debated question but crucial to our understanding of their ecological functions and response to climate change. A long-term study of a graminivorous vole population in an exceptionally simple High Arctic food web allowed us to identify which population dynamics features are present without top-down regulation. Unique features were high-amplitude, noncyclic population fluctuations driven by a combination of stochastic weather events and season-specific density dependence likely arising from plant–herbivore interactions. That such features are not present in more complex food webs points to the importance of top-down regulation in small mammal populations.

Ecologists are still puzzled by the diverse population dynamics of herbivorous small mammals that range from high-amplitude, multiannual cycles to stable dynamics. Theory predicts that this diversity results from combinations of climatic seasonality, weather stochasticity, and density-dependent food web interactions. The almost ubiquitous 3- to 5-y cycles in boreal and arctic climates may theoretically result from bottom-up (plant–herbivore) and top-down (predator–prey) interactions. Assessing, empirically, the roles of such interactions and how they are influenced by environmental stochasticity has been hampered by food web complexity. Here, we take advantage of a uniquely simple High Arctic food web, which allowed us to analyze the dynamics of a graminivorous vole population not subjected to top-down regulation. This population exhibited high-amplitude, noncyclic fluctuations—partly driven by weather stochasticity. However, the predominant driver of the dynamics was overcompensatory density dependence in winter that caused the population to frequently crash. Model simulations showed that the seasonal pattern of density dependence would yield regular 2-y cycles in the absence of stochasticity. While such short cycles have not yet been observed in mammals, they are theoretically plausible if graminivorous vole populations are deterministically bottom-up regulated. When incorporating weather stochasticity in the model simulations, cyclicity became disrupted and the amplitude was increased—akin to the observed dynamics. Our findings contrast with the 3- to 5-y population cycles that are typical of graminivorous small mammals in more complex food webs, suggesting that top-down regulation is normally an important component of such dynamics.

Seasonal dynamics of manganese accumulation in European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), silver birch (Betula pendula Roth), and bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) over 10 years of monitoring

Leaves of European larch, silver birch, and bilberry were sampled 5-7 times per growing season in 2010-2019 in a locality near the city of Litvínov in the Krušné Hory Mts. (Ore Mts.) near the Czech/German border. The locality is characterised by a large amount of plant-available Mn because of acidic soils in the study area. All three investigated plants at the studied site acquired manganese concentrations close to the definition of hyperaccumulation (ca. 10,000 mg kg^-1). This paper presents the most detailed collection of plant material for the characterisation of seasonal dynamics of Mn concentrations in the foliage of the three studied plants under field conditions and compares this information with that in published studies. Time (day in the year or day in the growing season) and cumulative precipitation anomalies were major and minor variables, respectively, explaining Mn dynamics in leaves, while temperature and insolation anomalies were not significant. The three investigated species showed plant-specific Mn acquisition rates in the growing season and specific effects of precipitation. Seasonal dynamics must be considered if plant leaves are used for environmental monitoring.

Effects of stochasticity on the length and behaviour of ecological transients

There is a growing recognition that ecological systems can spend extended periods of time far away from an asymptotic state, and that ecological understanding will therefore require a deeper appreciation for how long ecological transients arise. Recent work has defined classes of deterministic mechanisms that can lead to long transients. Given the ubiquity of stochasticity in ecological systems, a similar systematic treatment of transients that includes the influence of stochasticity is important. Stochasticity can of course promote the appearance of transient dynamics by preventing systems from settling permanently near their asymptotic state, but stochasticity also interacts with deterministic features to create qualitatively new dynamics. As such, stochasticity may shorten, extend or fundamentally change a system's transient dynamics. Here, we describe a general framework that is developing for understanding the range of possible outcomes when random processes impact the dynamics of ecological systems over realistic time scales. We emphasize that we can understand the ways in which stochasticity can either extend or reduce the lifetime of transients by studying the interactions between the stochastic and deterministic processes present, and we summarize both the current state of knowledge and avenues for future advances.

Acceptable-and-attractive Approximate Solution of a Continuous Non-Cooperative Game on a Product of Sinusoidal Strategy Functional Spaces

A problem of solving a continuous noncooperative game is considered, where the player’s pure strategies are sinusoidal functions of time. In order to reduce issues of practical computability, certainty, and realizability, a method of solving the game approximately is presented. The method is based on mapping the product of the functional spaces into a hyperparallelepiped of the players’ phase lags. The hyperparallelepiped is then substituted with a hypercubic grid due to a uniform sampling. Thus, the initial game is mapped into a finite one, in which the players’ payoff matrices are hypercubic. The approximation is an iterative procedure. The number of intervals along the player’s phase lag is gradually increased, and the respective finite games are solved until an acceptable solution of the finite game becomes sufficiently close to the same-type solutions at the preceding iterations. The sufficient closeness implies that the player’s strategies at the succeeding iterations should be not farther from each other than at the preceding iterations. In a more feasible form, it implies that the respective distance polylines are required to be decreasing on average once they are smoothed with respective polynomials of degree 2, where the parabolas must be having positive coefficients at the squared variable.

Diversity of biological rhythm and food web stability

How ecosystem biodiversity is maintained remains a persistent question in the field of ecology. Here, I present a new coexistence theory, i.e. diversity of biological rhythm. Circadian, circalunar and circannual rhythms, which control short- and long-term activities, are identified as universal phenomena in organisms. Analysis of a theoretical food web with diel, monthly and annual cycles in foraging activity for each organism shows that diverse biological cycles play key roles in maintaining complex communities. Each biological rhythm does not have a strong stabilizing effect independently but enhances community persistence when combined with other rhythms. Biological rhythms also mitigate inherent destabilization tendencies caused by food web complexity. Temporal weak interactions due to hybridity of multiple activity cycles play a key role toward coexistence. Polyrhythmic changes in biological activities in response to the Earth's rotation may be a key factor in maintaining biological communities.