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Rousseau Y, Blanchard JL, Novaglio C, Pinnell KA, Tittensor DP, Watson RA, Ye Y. A database of mapped global fishing activity 1950-2017. Sci Data 2024; 11:48. [PMID: 38191576 PMCID: PMC10774419 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02824-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/10/2024] Open
Abstract
A new database on historical country-level fishing fleet capacity and effort is described, derived from a range of publicly available sources that were harmonized, converted to fishing effort, and mapped to 30-min spatial cells. The resulting data is comparable with widely used but more temporally-limited satellite-sourced Automatic Identification System (AIS) datasets for large vessels, while also documenting important smaller fleets and artisanal segments. It ranges from 1950 to 2017, and includes information on number of vessels, engine power, gross tonnage, and nominal effort, categorized by vessel length, gear type and targeted functional groups. The data can be aggregated to Large Marine Ecosystem, region and/or fishing country scales and provides a temporally and spatially explicit source for fishing effort and fleet capacity for studies aimed at understanding the implications of long-term changes in fishing activity in the global ocean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yannick Rousseau
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.
| | - Julia L Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Kirsty A Pinnell
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | | | - Reg A Watson
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Yimin Ye
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
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2
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Dalpadado P, Roxy MK, Arrigo KR, van Dijken GL, Chierici M, Ostrowski M, Skern-Mauritzen R, Bakke G, Richardson AJ, Sperfeld E. Rapid climate change alters the environment and biological production of the Indian Ocean. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 906:167342. [PMID: 37758130 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167342] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2023] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023]
Abstract
We synthesize and review the impacts of climate change on the physical, chemical, and biological environments of the Indian Ocean and discuss mitigating actions and knowledge gaps. The most recent climate scenarios identify with high certainty that the Indian Ocean (IO) is experiencing one of the fastest surface warming among the world's oceans. The area of surface waters of >28 °C (IO Warm Pool) has significantly increased during 1982-2021 by expanding into the northern-central basins. A significant decrease in pH and aragonite (building blocks of calcified organisms) levels in the IO was observed from 1981-2020 due to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There are also signals of decreasing trends in primary productivity in the north, likely related to enhanced stratification and nutrient depletion. Further, the rapid warming of the IO will manifest more extreme weather conditions along its adjacent continents and oceans, including marine heat waves that are likely to reshape biodiversity. However, the impact of climate change beyond the unprecedented warming, increase in marine heat waves, expansion of the IO Warm Pool, and decrease in pH, remains uncertain for many other key variables in the IO including changes in salinity, oxygen, and net primary production. Understanding the response of these physical, chemical, and biological variables to climate change is vital to project future changes in regional fisheries and identify mitigation actions. We accordingly conclude by identifying knowledge gaps and recommending directions for sustainable fisheries and climate impact studies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mathew Koll Roxy
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, India
| | - Kevin R Arrigo
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Gert L van Dijken
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | | | - Marek Ostrowski
- Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870, 5817 Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Gunnstein Bakke
- Directorate of Fisheries, Strandgaten 229, 5804 Bergen, Norway
| | - Anthony J Richardson
- School of the Environment, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, 4072, QLD, Australia; CSIRO Environment, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, 4067, Queensland, Australia
| | - Erik Sperfeld
- Animal Ecology, Zoological Institute and Museum, University of Greifswald, Loitzer Str. 26, 17489 Greifswald, Germany
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3
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Le Grix N, Cheung WL, Reygondeau G, Zscheischler J, Frölicher TL. Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:6478-6492. [PMID: 37815723 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Ocean extreme events, such as marine heatwaves, can have harmful impacts on marine ecosystems. Understanding the risks posed by such extreme events is key to develop strategies to predict and mitigate their effects. However, the underlying ocean conditions driving severe impacts on marine ecosystems are complex and often unknown as risks to marine ecosystems arise not only from hazards but also from the interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability. Marine ecosystems may not be impacted by extreme events in single drivers but rather by the compounding effects of moderate ocean anomalies. Here, we employ an ensemble climate-impact modeling approach that combines a global marine fish model with output from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model, to identify the key ocean ecosystem drivers associated with the most severe impacts on the total biomass of 326 pelagic fish species. We show that low net primary productivity is the most influential driver of extremely low fish biomass over 68% of the ocean area considered by the model, especially in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes, followed by high temperature and low oxygen in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the high latitudes. Severe biomass loss is generally driven by extreme anomalies in at least one ocean ecosystem driver, except in the tropics, where a combination of moderate ocean anomalies is sufficient to drive extreme impacts. Single moderate anomalies never drive extremely low fish biomass. Compound events with either moderate or extreme ocean conditions are a necessary condition for extremely low fish biomass over 78% of the global ocean, and compound events with at least one extreme variable are a necessary condition over 61% of the global ocean. Overall, our model results highlight the crucial role of extreme and compound events in driving severe impacts on pelagic marine ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natacha Le Grix
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - William L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Jakob Zscheischler
- Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
- Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Cheung WWL, Maire E, Oyinlola MA, Robinson JPW, Graham NAJ, Lam VWY, MacNeil MA, Hicks CC. Climate change exacerbates nutrient disparities from seafood. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 2023; 13:1242-1249. [PMID: 37927330 PMCID: PMC10624626 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01822-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2022] [Accepted: 08/24/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
Seafood is an important source of bioavailable micronutrients supporting human health, yet it is unclear how micronutrient production has changed in the past or how climate change will influence its availability. Here combining reconstructed fisheries databases and predictive models, we assess nutrient availability from fisheries and mariculture in the past and project their futures under climate change. Since the 1990s, availabilities of iron, calcium and omega-3 from seafood for direct human consumption have increased but stagnated for protein. Under climate change, nutrient availability is projected to decrease disproportionately in tropical low-income countries that are already highly dependent on seafood-derived nutrients. At 4 oC of warming, nutrient availability is projected to decline by ~30% by 2100 in low income countries, while at 1.5-2.0 oC warming, decreases are projected to be ~10%. We demonstrate the importance of effective mitigation to support nutritional security of vulnerable nations and global health equity.
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Affiliation(s)
- William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - Eva Maire
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
| | - Muhammed A. Oyinlola
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | | | | | - Vicky W. Y. Lam
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia Canada
| | - M. Aaron MacNeil
- Ocean Frontier Institute, Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
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5
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Guibourd de Luzinais V, du Pontavice H, Reygondeau G, Barrier N, Blanchard JL, Bornarel V, Büchner M, Cheung WWL, Eddy TD, Everett JD, Guiet J, Harrison CS, Maury O, Novaglio C, Petrik CM, Steenbeek J, Tittensor DP, Gascuel D. Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0287570. [PMID: 37611010 PMCID: PMC10446190 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287570] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2022] [Accepted: 06/08/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world's oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world's oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world's oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais
- UMR Dynamics and Sustainability of Ecosystems: From Source to Sea (DECOD), Institut Agro, Ifremer, INRAE, Rennes, France
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Hubert du Pontavice
- UMR Dynamics and Sustainability of Ecosystems: From Source to Sea (DECOD), Institut Agro, Ifremer, INRAE, Rennes, France
- Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of America
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Virginie Bornarel
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Matthias Büchner
- Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Tyler D. Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John’s, NL, Canada
| | - Jason D. Everett
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Environment, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America
| | - Cheryl S. Harrison
- Department of Coastal and Ocean Science and Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, United States of America
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Sète, France
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Colleen M. Petrik
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States of America
| | | | | | - Didier Gascuel
- UMR Dynamics and Sustainability of Ecosystems: From Source to Sea (DECOD), Institut Agro, Ifremer, INRAE, Rennes, France
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Florko KRN, Shuert CR, Cheung WWL, Ferguson SH, Jonsen ID, Rosen DAS, Sumaila UR, Tai TC, Yurkowski DJ, Auger-Méthé M. Linking movement and dive data to prey distribution models: new insights in foraging behaviour and potential pitfalls of movement analyses. MOVEMENT ECOLOGY 2023; 11:17. [PMID: 36959671 PMCID: PMC10037791 DOI: 10.1186/s40462-023-00377-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2022] [Accepted: 03/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Animal movement data are regularly used to infer foraging behaviour and relationships to environmental characteristics, often to help identify critical habitat. To characterize foraging, movement models make a set of assumptions rooted in theory, for example, time spent foraging in an area increases with higher prey density. METHODS We assessed the validity of these assumptions by associating horizontal movement and diving of satellite-telemetered ringed seals (Pusa hispida)-an opportunistic predator-in Hudson Bay, Canada, to modelled prey data and environmental proxies. RESULTS Modelled prey biomass data performed better than their environmental proxies (e.g., sea surface temperature) for explaining seal movement; however movement was not related to foraging effort. Counter to theory, seals appeared to forage more in areas with relatively lower prey diversity and biomass, potentially due to reduced foraging efficiency in those areas. CONCLUSIONS Our study highlights the need to validate movement analyses with prey data to effectively estimate the relationship between prey availability and foraging behaviour.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie R N Florko
- Aquatic Ecosystem Research Laboratory, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.
| | - Courtney R Shuert
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Windsor, Windsor, ON, Canada
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - William W L Cheung
- Aquatic Ecosystem Research Laboratory, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Steven H Ferguson
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Ian D Jonsen
- School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - David A S Rosen
- Aquatic Ecosystem Research Laboratory, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Aquatic Ecosystem Research Laboratory, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Travis C Tai
- Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - David J Yurkowski
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - Marie Auger-Méthé
- Aquatic Ecosystem Research Laboratory, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
- Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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7
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Cooke SJ, Fulton EA, Sauer WHH, Lynch AJ, Link JS, Koning AA, Jena J, Silva LGM, King AJ, Kelly R, Osborne M, Nakamura J, Preece AL, Hagiwara A, Forsberg K, Kellner JB, Coscia I, Helyar S, Barange M, Nyboer E, Williams MJ, Chuenpagdee R, Begg GA, Gillanders BM. Towards vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all: learning from the last 30 years to inform the next 30 years. REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES 2023; 33:317-347. [PMID: 37122954 PMCID: PMC9985478 DOI: 10.1007/s11160-023-09765-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2022] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
A common goal among fisheries science professionals, stakeholders, and rights holders is to ensure the persistence and resilience of vibrant fish populations and sustainable, equitable fisheries in diverse aquatic ecosystems, from small headwater streams to offshore pelagic waters. Achieving this goal requires a complex intersection of science and management, and a recognition of the interconnections among people, place, and fish that govern these tightly coupled socioecological and sociotechnical systems. The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) convenes every four years and provides a unique global forum to debate and discuss threats, issues, and opportunities facing fish populations and fisheries. The 2021 WFC meeting, hosted remotely in Adelaide, Australia, marked the 30th year since the first meeting was held in Athens, Greece, and provided an opportunity to reflect on progress made in the past 30 years and provide guidance for the future. We assembled a diverse team of individuals involved with the Adelaide WFC and reflected on the major challenges that faced fish and fisheries over the past 30 years, discussed progress toward overcoming those challenges, and then used themes that emerged during the Congress to identify issues and opportunities to improve sustainability in the world's fisheries for the next 30 years. Key future needs and opportunities identified include: rethinking fisheries management systems and modelling approaches, modernizing and integrating assessment and information systems, being responsive and flexible in addressing persistent and emerging threats to fish and fisheries, mainstreaming the human dimension of fisheries, rethinking governance, policy and compliance, and achieving equity and inclusion in fisheries. We also identified a number of cross-cutting themes including better understanding the role of fish as nutrition in a hungry world, adapting to climate change, embracing transdisciplinarity, respecting Indigenous knowledge systems, thinking ahead with foresight science, and working together across scales. By reflecting on the past and thinking about the future, we aim to provide guidance for achieving our mutual goal of sustaining vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all. We hope that this prospective thinking can serve as a guide to (i) assess progress towards achieving this lofty goal and (ii) refine our path with input from new and emerging voices and approaches in fisheries science, management, and stewardship.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven J. Cooke
- Fish Ecology and Conservation Physiology Laboratory, Department of Biology and Institute of Environmental and Interdisciplinary Science, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6 Canada
| | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- CSIRO Environment, Hobart, 7001 TAS Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001 TAS Australia
| | - Warwick H. H. Sauer
- Department of Ichthyology and Fisheries Science, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa
| | - Abigail J. Lynch
- National Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA 20192 USA
| | - Jason S. Link
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Woods Hole, MA USA
| | - Aaron A. Koning
- Global Water Center, University of Nevada-Reno, Reno, NV USA
| | - Joykrushna Jena
- Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Krishi Anusandhan Bhawan-II, Pusa, New Delhi, 110012 India
| | - Luiz G. M. Silva
- Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH-Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Alison J. King
- Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems, La Trobe University, Wodonga, 3690 Vic Australia
| | - Rachel Kelly
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001 TAS Australia
| | - Matthew Osborne
- Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade, Northern Territory Government, Darwin, 0800 NT Australia
| | - Julia Nakamura
- Strathclyde Centre for Environmental Law and Governance, University of Strathclyde Law School, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Atsushi Hagiwara
- Graduate School of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, 852-8521 Japan
| | | | - Julie B. Kellner
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Falmouth, MA 02453 USA
- International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, 1553 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ilaria Coscia
- School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Salford, M5 4WT UK
| | - Sarah Helyar
- School of Biological Sciences/Institute for Global Food Security, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK
| | - Manuel Barange
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale Delle Terme Di Caracalla S/N, 00153 Rome, Italy
| | - Elizabeth Nyboer
- Fish Ecology and Conservation Physiology Laboratory, Department of Biology and Institute of Environmental and Interdisciplinary Science, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Dr., Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6 Canada
| | | | - Ratana Chuenpagdee
- Department of Geography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, NFLD Canada
| | - Gavin A. Begg
- Department of Primary Industries and Regions, PO Box 120, Henley Beach, 5022 SA Australia
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8
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Parker-Jurd FNF, Smith NS, Gibson L, Nuojua S, Thompson RC. Evaluating the performance of the 'Seabin' - A fixed point mechanical litter removal device for sheltered waters. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2022; 184:114199. [PMID: 36209536 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2022] [Revised: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Mechanical interventions are increasingly suggested as a means of removing plastic litter from aquatic environments; their performance is rarely evaluated, but such information is critical to inform policy interventions such as those required to facilitate UNEA 5.2. The Seabin, a fixed-point device designed to remove floating litter in sheltered waters was examined in an urban tidal marina (Southwest UK). It captured on average 58 litter items/day; chiefly plastic pellets, polystyrene balls and plastic fragments. It also captured one marine organism for every 3.6 items of litter, or 13 organisms/day, half of which were dead upon retrieval. The rate of litter capture was inferior to manual cleaning conducted with nets from pontoons or vessels. Hence, in this location the Seabin was of minimal benefit in terms of marine litter removal and resulted in mortality of marine organisms. The presence of such devices could also precipitate false optimism and reliance on technological solutions, rather than systemic changes in our production, use, and disposal of plastics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florence N F Parker-Jurd
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drakes Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK.
| | - Natalie S Smith
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drakes Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
| | - Liam Gibson
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drakes Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK; Strategic Planning and Infrastructure, Plymouth City Council, Ballard House, West Hoe Road, Plymouth PL1 3BJ, UK
| | - Sohvi Nuojua
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drakes Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK; Faculty of Education, University of Oulu, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
| | - Richard C Thompson
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drakes Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
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9
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Cheung WWL, Palacios-Abrantes J, Frölicher TL, Palomares ML, Clarke T, Lam VWY, Oyinlola MA, Pauly D, Reygondeau G, Sumaila UR, Teh LCL, Wabnitz CCC. Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6254-6267. [PMID: 36047439 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2022] [Revised: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 07/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Rebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14-Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch-based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7-2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014-2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4-2.0 and 1.1-1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo-Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate-sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade-offs between climate-resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near-term demand for seafood to support the well-being of coastal communities across the tropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- William W L Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Maria Lourdes Palomares
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Tayler Clarke
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Vicky W Y Lam
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Muhammed A Oyinlola
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique - Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
| | - Daniel Pauly
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lydia C L Teh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Colette C C Wabnitz
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
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10
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Cinner JE, Caldwell IR, Thiault L, Ben J, Blanchard JL, Coll M, Diedrich A, Eddy TD, Everett JD, Folberth C, Gascuel D, Guiet J, Gurney GG, Heneghan RF, Jägermeyr J, Jiddawi N, Lahari R, Kuange J, Liu W, Maury O, Müller C, Novaglio C, Palacios-Abrantes J, Petrik CM, Rabearisoa A, Tittensor DP, Wamukota A, Pollnac R. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nat Commun 2022; 13:3530. [PMID: 35790744 PMCID: PMC9256605 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua E Cinner
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.
| | - Iain R Caldwell
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Lauric Thiault
- National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278, CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005, Paris, France
- Moana Ecologic, Rocbaron, France
| | - John Ben
- Private Fisheries and Environment Consultant, Lau, Morobe, Papua New Guinea
| | - Julia L Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
- Center for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) & Ecopath International Initiative (EII), Barcelona, 08003, Spain
| | - Amy Diedrich
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Building 142, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
- Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Tyler D Eddy
- Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
| | - Jason D Everett
- School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
- Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Christian Folberth
- Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Didier Gascuel
- DECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), Institut Agro / Inrae / Ifremer, Rennes, France
| | - Jerome Guiet
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Georgina G Gurney
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia
| | - Ryan F Heneghan
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Jonas Jägermeyr
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY, USA
- Columbia University, Climate School, New York, NY, 10025, USA
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Narriman Jiddawi
- Institute for Marine Science, University of Dar Es Salaam, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Rachael Lahari
- Environment and Marine Scientist, New Ireland Province, Papua New Guinea
| | - John Kuange
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Goroka, EHP, Papua New Guinea
| | - Wenfeng Liu
- Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Olivier Maury
- MARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, Sète, France
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Camilla Novaglio
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia
- Center for Marine Socioecology, Hobart, TAS, Australia
| | - Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Wisconsin, WI, USA
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Colleen M Petrik
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, 92093, USA
| | - Ando Rabearisoa
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | - Derek P Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
- United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
| | - Andrew Wamukota
- School of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Pwani University, P.O. Box 195, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Richard Pollnac
- Department of Marine Affairs, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, 02881, USA
- School of Marine & Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
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11
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Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas. Sci Rep 2022; 12:10150. [PMID: 35710852 PMCID: PMC9203508 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-14151-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2022] [Accepted: 05/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an extensive research topic, aiming at providing realistic ecological scenarios on which to build management measures, to help fisheries and aquaculture adapt to future climate-driven changes. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the contemporary and future distributional range of eight demersal fish species of high economic value in the Mediterranean Sea. We identify a cardinal influence of (i) temperature on fish species distributions, all being shaped by yearly mean and seasonality in sea bottom temperature, and (ii) the primary production. By assessing the effects of changes in future climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios over three periods of the twenty-first century, we project a contraction of the distributional range of the eight species in the Mediterranean Sea, with a general biogeographical displacement towards the North European coasts. This will help anticipating changes in future catch potential in a warmer world, which is expected to have substantial economic consequences for Mediterranean fisheries.
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12
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Palacios‐Abrantes J, Frölicher TL, Reygondeau G, Sumaila U, Tagliabue A, Wabnitz C, Cheung W. Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2312-2326. [PMID: 35040239 PMCID: PMC9302671 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2021] [Revised: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social-ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
- Center for LimnologyUniversity of WisconsinMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Thomas L. Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental PhysicsPhysics InstituteUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - U. Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
- School of Public Policy and Global AffairsThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | | | - Colette C. C. Wabnitz
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
- Stanford Center for Ocean SolutionsStanford UniversityStanfordCaliforniaUSA
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCanada
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13
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Masiá P, Mateo JL, Arias A, Bartolomé M, Blanco C, Erzini K, Le Loc'h F, Mve Beh JH, Power D, Rodriguez N, Schaal G, Machado-Schiaffino G, Garcia-Vazquez E. Potential microplastics impacts on African fishing resources. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 806:150671. [PMID: 34599958 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/21/2021] [Revised: 09/24/2021] [Accepted: 09/25/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Microplastic (MP) pollution is increasing worldwide and affecting aquatic fauna in different ways, which endangers current aquatic resources in a still unknown extent. MP-induced threats to marine fauna are critical for developing countries, where waste treatment may be not optimal and coastal communities rely heavily on marine resources for dietary protein. In this study, we assess the importance of MP pollution for African fishing resources. A new meta-database was created from published studies, containing 156 samples with more than 6200 individuals analysed for microplastic content from African and adjacent waters. A combination of research landscape analysis and rank analysis served to identify main research targets and to determine regional fishing resources especially affected by MP. A network of relevant terms showed fish health as a concern in Mediterranean waters, environmental pollution in freshwater and an emphasis on plastic items in South Africa. MP contents in fishing resources from Nile countries and the Gulf of Guinea, followed by Tunisia, are significantly higher than in other regions. Some of the most exploited species are among the most polluted ones, highlighting the threat of MP pollution in valuable but already compromised African fishing resources. Large geographic gaps with almost absent data about MP in aquatic fauna were revealed, especially in freshwater and in East African coasts. These results emphasize the importance of increasing the coverage of MP pollution in African fishing resources, and improving plastic waste management in the continent.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Karim Erzini
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
| | - François Le Loc'h
- University of Brest, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, LEMAR, F-29280 Plouzane, France
| | - Jean Hervé Mve Beh
- University of Brest, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, LEMAR, F-29280 Plouzane, France; Laboratoire d'Hydrologie et d'Ichtyologie, IRAF, CENAREST, Libreville, Gabon
| | - Deborah Power
- Centro de Ciências do Mar (CCMAR), Universidade do Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal
| | | | - Gauthier Schaal
- University of Brest, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, LEMAR, F-29280 Plouzane, France
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14
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Oyinlola MA, Reygondeau G, Wabnitz CCC, Frölicher TL, Lam VWY, Cheung WWL. Projecting global mariculture production and adaptation pathways under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:1315-1331. [PMID: 34902203 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2021] [Revised: 10/28/2021] [Accepted: 11/16/2021] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The sustainability of global seafood supply to meet increasing demand is facing several challenges, including increasing consumption levels due to a growing human population, fisheries resources over-exploitation and climate change. Whilst growth in seafood production from capture fisheries is limited, global mariculture production is expanding. However, climate change poses risks to the potential seafood production from mariculture. Here, we apply a global mariculture production model that accounts for changing ocean conditions, suitable marine area for farming, fishmeal and fish oil production, farmed species dietary demand, farmed fish price and global seafood demand to project mariculture production under two climate and socio-economic scenarios. We include 85 farmed marine fish and mollusc species, representing about 70% of all mariculture production in 2015. Results show positive global mariculture production changes by the mid and end of the 21st century relative to the 2000s under the SSP1-2.6 scenario with an increase of 17%±5 and 33%±6, respectively. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an increase of 8%±5 is projected, with production peaking by mid-century and declining by 16%±5 towards the end of the 21st century. More than 25% of mariculture-producing nations are projected to lose 40%-90% of their current mariculture production potential under SSP5-8.5 by mid-century. Projected impacts are mainly due to the direct ocean warming effects on farmed species and suitable marine areas, and the indirect impacts of changing availability of forage fishes supplies to produce aquafeed. Fishmeal replacement with alternative protein can lower climate impacts on a subset of finfish production. However, such adaptation measures do not apply to regions dominated by non-feed-based farming (i.e. molluscs) and regions losing substantial marine areas suitable for mariculture. Our study highlights the importance of strong mitigation efforts and the need for different climate adaptation options tailored to the diversity of mariculture systems, to support climate-resilient mariculture development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammed A Oyinlola
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Colette C C Wabnitz
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Vicky W Y Lam
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - William W L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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15
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Tai TC, Calosi P, Gurney-Smith HJ, Cheung WWL. Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus. Sci Rep 2021; 11:23330. [PMID: 34857790 PMCID: PMC8639722 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-02253-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Ocean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Travis C. Tai
- grid.17091.3e0000 0001 2288 9830Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - Piero Calosi
- grid.265702.40000 0001 2185 197XDépartment de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1 Canada
| | - Helen J. Gurney-Smith
- grid.23618.3e0000 0004 0449 2129Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. Andrews Biological Station, 125 Marine Science Drive, St. Andrews, NB E5B 0E4 Canada
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- grid.17091.3e0000 0001 2288 9830Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
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16
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Nyboer EA, Lin HY, Bennett JR, Gabriel J, Twardek W, Chhor AD, Daly L, Dolson S, Guitard E, Holder P, Mozzon CM, Trahan A, Zimmermann D, Kesner-Reyes K, Garilao C, Kaschner K, Cooke SJ. Global assessment of marine and freshwater recreational fish reveals mismatch in climate change vulnerability and conservation effort. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:4799-4824. [PMID: 34289527 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15768] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2020] [Revised: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Recreational fisheries contribute substantially to the sociocultural and economic well-being of coastal and riparian regions worldwide, but climate change threatens their sustainability. Fishery managers require information on how climate change will impact key recreational species; however, the absence of a global assessment hinders both directed and widespread conservation efforts. In this study, we present the first global climate change vulnerability assessment of recreationally targeted fish species from marine and freshwater environments (including diadromous fishes). We use climate change projections and data on species' physiological and ecological traits to quantify and map global climate vulnerability and analyze these patterns alongside the indices of socioeconomic value and conservation effort to determine where efforts are sufficient and where they might fall short. We found that over 20% of recreationally targeted fishes are vulnerable to climate change under a high emission scenario. Overall, marine fishes had the highest number of vulnerable species, concentrated in regions with sensitive habitat types (e.g., coral reefs). However, freshwater fishes had higher proportions of species at risk from climate change, with concentrations in northern Europe, Australia, and southern Africa. Mismatches in conservation effort and vulnerability were found within all regions and life-history groups. A key pattern was that current conservation effort focused primarily on marine fishes of high socioeconomic value rather than on the freshwater and diadromous fishes that were predicted to be proportionately more vulnerable. While several marine regions were notably lacking in protection (e.g., Caribbean Sea, Banda Sea), only 19% of vulnerable marine species were without conservation effort. By contrast, 72% of freshwater fishes and 33% of diadromous fishes had no measures in place, despite their high vulnerability and cultural value. The spatial and taxonomic analyses presented here provide guidance for the future conservation and management of recreational fisheries as climate change progresses.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Hsien-Yung Lin
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Joseph R Bennett
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Environmental and Interdisciplinary Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Joseph Gabriel
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - William Twardek
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Auston D Chhor
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Lindsay Daly
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Sarah Dolson
- Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Eric Guitard
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Peter Holder
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | | | | | | | - Cristina Garilao
- GEOMAR Helmholtz, Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - Kristin Kaschner
- Abteilung für Biometri und Umweltsystemanalyse, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Steven J Cooke
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- Institute of Environmental and Interdisciplinary Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada
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17
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Cheung WWL, Frölicher TL, Lam VWY, Oyinlola MA, Reygondeau G, Sumaila UR, Tai TC, Teh LCL, Wabnitz CCC. Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021; 7:eabh0895. [PMID: 34597142 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh0895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Extreme temperature events have occurred in all ocean basins in the past two decades with detrimental impacts on marine biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. However, global impacts of temperature extremes on fish stocks, fisheries, and dependent people have not been quantified. Using an integrated climate-biodiversity-fisheries-economic impact model, we project that, on average, when an annual high temperature extreme occurs in an exclusive economic zone, 77% of exploited fishes and invertebrates therein will decrease in biomass while maximum catch potential will drop by 6%, adding to the decadal-scale mean impacts under climate change. The net negative impacts of high temperature extremes on fish stocks are projected to cause losses in fisheries revenues and livelihoods in most maritime countries, creating shocks to fisheries social-ecological systems particularly in climate-vulnerable areas. Our study highlights the need for rapid adaptation responses to extreme temperatures in addition to carbon mitigation to support sustainable ocean development.
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Affiliation(s)
- William W L Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Vicky W Y Lam
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Muhammed A Oyinlola
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, 43600 Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Travis C Tai
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lydia C L Teh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Colette C C Wabnitz
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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18
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Florko KRN, Tai TC, Cheung WWL, Ferguson SH, Sumaila UR, Yurkowski DJ, Auger-Méthé M. Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:2563-2575. [PMID: 34469020 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13866] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie R N Florko
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Travis C Tai
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - William W L Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Steven H Ferguson
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - David J Yurkowski
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Marie Auger-Méthé
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.,Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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19
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Tigchelaar M, Cheung WWL, Mohammed EY, Phillips MJ, Payne HJ, Selig ER, Wabnitz CCC, Oyinlola MA, Frölicher TL, Gephart JA, Golden CD, Allison EH, Bennett A, Cao L, Fanzo J, Halpern BS, Lam VWY, Micheli F, Naylor RL, Sumaila UR, Tagliabue A, Troell M. Compound climate risks threaten aquatic food system benefits. NATURE FOOD 2021; 2:673-682. [PMID: 37117477 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00368-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/17/2021] [Indexed: 04/30/2023]
Abstract
Aquatic foods from marine and freshwater systems are critical to the nutrition, health, livelihoods, economies and cultures of billions of people worldwide, but climate-related hazards may compromise their ability to provide these benefits. Here, we estimate national-level aquatic food system climate risk using an integrative food systems approach that connects climate hazards impacting marine and freshwater capture fisheries and aquaculture to their contributions to sustainable food system outcomes. We show that without mitigation, climate hazards pose high risks to nutritional, social, economic and environmental outcomes worldwide-especially for wild-capture fisheries in Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Small Island Developing States. For countries projected to experience compound climate risks, reducing societal vulnerabilities can lower climate risk by margins similar to meeting Paris Agreement mitigation targets. System-level interventions addressing dimensions such as governance, gender equity and poverty are needed to enhance aquatic and terrestrial food system resilience and provide investments with large co-benefits towards meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - William W L Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | | | - Hanna J Payne
- Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | - Colette C C Wabnitz
- Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Muhammed A Oyinlola
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Jessica A Gephart
- Department of Environmental Science, American University, Washington DC, USA
| | - Christopher D Golden
- Department of Nutrition, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Abigail Bennett
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Ling Cao
- School of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jessica Fanzo
- Berman Institute of Bioethics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC, USA
| | - Benjamin S Halpern
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - Vicky W Y Lam
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Fiorenza Micheli
- Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA, USA
| | - Rosamond L Naylor
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | | - Max Troell
- Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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20
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Fiorella KJ, Bageant ER, Schwartz NB, Thilsted SH, Barrett CB. Fishers' response to temperature change reveals the importance of integrating human behavior in climate change analysis. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021; 7:7/18/eabc7425. [PMID: 33931440 PMCID: PMC8087411 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc7425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2020] [Accepted: 03/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate change will reshape ecological dynamics. Yet, how temperature increases alter the behavior and resource use of people reliant on natural resources remains underexplored. Consequent behavior shifts have the potential to mitigate or accelerate climate impacts on livelihoods and food security. Particularly within the small-scale inland fisheries that support approximately 10% of the global population, temperature changes likely affect both fish and fishers. To analyze how changing temperatures alter households' fishing behavior, we examined fishing effort and fish catch in a major inland fishery. We used longitudinal observational data from households in Cambodia, which has the highest per-capita consumption of inland fish in the world. Higher temperatures caused households to reduce their participation in fishing but had limited net effects on fish catch. Incorporating human behavioral responses to changing environmental conditions will be fundamental to determining how climate change affects rural livelihoods, food production, and food access.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn J Fiorella
- Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
| | - Elizabeth R Bageant
- Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
| | - Naomi B Schwartz
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada
| | | | - Christopher B Barrett
- Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
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21
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Clairbaux M, Cheung WWL, Mathewson P, Porter W, Courbin N, Fort J, Strøm H, Moe B, Fauchald P, Descamps S, Helgason H, Bråthen VS, Merkel B, Anker-Nilssen T, Bringsvor IS, Chastel O, Christensen-Dalsgaard S, Danielsen J, Daunt F, Dehnhard N, Erikstad KE, Ezhov A, Gavrilo M, Krasnov Y, Langset M, Lorentsen SH, Newell M, Olsen B, Reiertsen TK, Systad G, Þórarinsson ÞL, Baran M, Diamond T, Fayet AL, Fitzsimmons MG, Frederiksen M, Gilchrist GH, Guilford T, Huffeldt NP, Jessopp M, Johansen KL, Kouwenberg AL, Linnebjerg JF, McFarlane Tranquilla L, Mallory M, Merkel FR, Montevecchi W, Mosbech A, Petersen A, Grémillet D. Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1457-1469. [PMID: 33347684 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2020] [Accepted: 10/28/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a "no mitigation" scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manon Clairbaux
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, Montpellier, France
| | - William W L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Paul Mathewson
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Warren Porter
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Nicolas Courbin
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Univ Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, Montpellier, France
| | - Jérôme Fort
- Littoral, Environnement et Sociétés (LIENSs), UMR7266 CNRS - La Rochelle Université, La Rochelle, France
| | | | - Børge Moe
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research - NINA, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Per Fauchald
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research - NINA, Trondheim, Norway
| | | | | | - Vegard S Bråthen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research - NINA, Trondheim, Norway
| | | | | | | | - Olivier Chastel
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC), UMR 7372 CNRS-Univ. La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
| | | | | | | | - Nina Dehnhard
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research - NINA, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Kjell-Einar Erikstad
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research - NINA, Trondheim, Norway
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Alexeï Ezhov
- Murmansk Marine Biological Institute, Murmansk, Russia
| | - Maria Gavrilo
- Association Maritime Heritage, Saint Petersburg, Russia
- National Park Russian Arctic, Archangelsk, Russia
| | - Yuri Krasnov
- Murmansk Marine Biological Institute, Murmansk, Russia
| | | | | | - Mark Newell
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Penicuik, UK
| | - Bergur Olsen
- Faroe Marine Research Institute, Tórshavn, Faroe Islands
| | | | - Geir Systad
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research - NINA, Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Mark Baran
- Atlantic Laboratory for Avian Research, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada
| | - Tony Diamond
- Atlantic Laboratory for Avian Research, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB, Canada
| | | | - Michelle G Fitzsimmons
- Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Mount Pearl, NL, Canada
| | | | - Grant H Gilchrist
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Tim Guilford
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Nicholas P Huffeldt
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland
| | - Mark Jessopp
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | | | | | | | | | - Mark Mallory
- Biology, Acadia University, Wolfville, NS, Canada
| | | | - William Montevecchi
- Psychology and Biology Departments, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
| | - Anders Mosbech
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | | | - David Grémillet
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC), UMR 7372 CNRS-Univ. La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
- Percy Fitz Patrick Institute, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
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22
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Carr H, Abas M, Boutahar L, Caretti ON, Chan WY, Chapman ASA, de Mendonça SN, Engleman A, Ferrario F, Simmons KR, Verdura J, Zivian A. The Aichi Biodiversity Targets: achievements for marine conservation and priorities beyond 2020. PeerJ 2020; 8:e9743. [PMID: 33391861 PMCID: PMC7759131 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.9743] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2019] [Accepted: 07/27/2020] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
In 2010 the Conference of the Parties (COP) for the Convention on Biological Diversity revised and updated a Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020, which included the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Here a group of early career researchers mentored by senior scientists, convened as part of the 4th World Conference on Marine Biodiversity, reflects on the accomplishments and shortfalls under four of the Aichi Targets considered highly relevant to marine conservation: target 6 (sustainable fisheries), 11 (protection measures), 15 (ecosystem restoration and resilience) and 19 (knowledge, science and technology). We conclude that although progress has been made towards the targets, these have not been fully achieved for the marine environment by the 2020 deadline. The progress made, however, lays the foundations for further work beyond 2020 to work towards the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity. We identify key priorities that must be addressed to better enable marine biodiversity conservation efforts moving forward.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Carr
- The Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough, Cambridgeshire, UK
| | - Marina Abas
- Departamento de Ciencias Marinas y Costeras, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
| | - Loubna Boutahar
- BioBio Research Center, BioEcoGen Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Rabat, Morocco.,Laboratorío de Biología Marina, Departamento de Zoología, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Olivia N Caretti
- Department of Marine, Earth, & Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Wing Yan Chan
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, QLD, Australia.,School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Abbie S A Chapman
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, UK.,Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Abigail Engleman
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | - Filippo Ferrario
- Québec-Ocean and Département de Biologie, Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada
| | - Kayelyn R Simmons
- Department of Marine, Earth, & Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Jana Verdura
- Institut d'Ecologia Aquàtica, Facultat de Ciències, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain
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23
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Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modeling-Based Runoff Simulation in Trans-Boundary Mangla Watershed Pakistan. WATER 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/w12113254] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The economy of Pakistan relies on the agricultural sector which mainly depends on the irrigation water generating from the upper Indus river basin. Mangla watershed is a trans-boundary basin which shares borders of India and Pakistan, it comprises five major sub-basins, i.e., Jhelum, Poonch, Kanshi, Neelum and Kunhar. The runoff production of this basin is largely controlled by snowmelt in combination with the winter precipitation in the upper part of the basin and summer monsoon. The present study focusses on the application of a statistical downscaling method to generate future climatic scenarios of climatic trends (temperature and precipitation) in Mangla watershed. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was applied to downscale the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3, Global Climate Model (HadCM3-GCM) predictions of the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The surface water analyst tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used for the future projected streamflows based on developing climate change scenarios by SDSM. The results revealed an increasing trend of annual maximum temperature (A2) at the rates of 0.4, 0.7 and 1.2 °C for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. However, a consistent decreasing trend of temperature was observed at the high-altitude region. Similarly, the annual minimum temperature exhibited an increasing pattern at the rates of 0.3, 0.5 and 0.9 °C for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Furthermore, similar increases were observed for annual precipitation at the rates of 6%, 10%, and 19% during 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively, for the whole watershed. Significant increasing precipitation trends in the future (2080) were observed in Kunhar, Neelum, Poonch and Kanshi sub-basins at the rates of 16%, 11%, 13% and 59%, respectively. Consequently, increased annual streamflow in the future at the rate of 15% was observed attributing to an increased temperature for snow melting in Mangla watershed. The similar increasing streamflow trend is consistent with the seasonal trends in terms of winter (16%), spring (19%) and summer (20%); however, autumn exhibited decreasing trend for all periods.
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24
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Clarke TM, Reygondeau G, Wabnitz C, Robertson R, Ixquiac‐Cabrera M, López M, Ramírez Coghi AR, del Río Iglesias JL, Wehrtmann I, Cheung WW. Climate change impacts on living marine resources in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tayler M. Clarke
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
- Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR) Universidad de Costa Rica San José Costa Rica
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
| | - Colette Wabnitz
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
| | | | - Manuel Ixquiac‐Cabrera
- Centro de Estudios del Mar y Acuicultura Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala Guatemala Guatemala
| | - Myrna López
- Museo de Zoología Escuela de Biología Universidad de Costa Rica San José Costa Rica
| | | | | | - Ingo Wehrtmann
- Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR) Universidad de Costa Rica San José Costa Rica
| | - William W.L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
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25
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Maltby KM, Rutterford LA, Tinker J, Genner MJ, Simpson SD. Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf. J Appl Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine M. Maltby
- Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) Lowestoft UK
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
| | - Louise A. Rutterford
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | | | - Martin J. Genner
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | - Stephen D. Simpson
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
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26
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Zhu Y, Zhang Z, Reygondeau G, Chu J, Hong X, Wang Y, Cheung WWL. Projecting changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of warm water fishes under climate change scenarios in the Yellow Sea. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Yugui Zhu
- College of Fisheries Ocean University of China Qingdao China
| | - Zhixin Zhang
- Graduate School of Marine Science and Technology Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology Tokyo Japan
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Max Planck Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global Change Yale University New Haven CT USA
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada
| | - Jiansong Chu
- College of Marine Life Science Ocean University of China Qingdao China
| | - Xuguang Hong
- Department of Natural Resources The First Institute of OceanographyQingdao China
| | - Yunfeng Wang
- The Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences Qingdao China
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada
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27
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Future ocean biomass losses may widen socioeconomic equity gaps. Nat Commun 2020; 11:2235. [PMID: 32376884 PMCID: PMC7203146 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15708-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2019] [Accepted: 03/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Future climate impacts and their consequences are increasingly being explored using multi-model ensembles that average across individual model projections. Here we develop a statistical framework that integrates projections from coupled ecosystem and earth-system models to evaluate significance and uncertainty in marine animal biomass changes over the 21st century in relation to socioeconomic indicators at national to global scales. Significant biomass changes are projected in 40%–57% of the global ocean, with 68%–84% of these areas exhibiting declining trends under low and high emission scenarios, respectively. Given unabated emissions, maritime nations with poor socioeconomic statuses such as low nutrition, wealth, and ocean health will experience the greatest projected losses. These findings suggest that climate-driven biomass changes will widen existing equity gaps and disproportionally affect populations that contributed least to global CO2 emissions. However, our analysis also suggests that such deleterious outcomes are largely preventable by achieving negative emissions (RCP 2.6). Numerous marine ecosystem models are used to project animal biomass over time but integrating them can be challenging. Here the authors develop a test for statistical significance in multi-model ensemble trends, and thus relate future biomass trends to current patterns of ecological and socioeconomic status.
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28
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Cheung WWL, Frölicher TL. Marine heatwaves exacerbate climate change impacts for fisheries in the northeast Pacific. Sci Rep 2020; 10:6678. [PMID: 32317685 PMCID: PMC7174322 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-63650-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2020] [Accepted: 04/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have occurred in all ocean basins with severe negative impacts on coastal and ocean ecosystems. The northeast Pacific 2013-2015 MHW in particular received major societal concerns. Yet, our knowledge about how MHWs impact fish stocks is limited. Here, we combine outputs from a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model with a fish impact model to simulate responses of major northeast Pacific fish stocks to MHWs. We show that MHWs cause biomass decrease and shifts in biogeography of fish stocks that are at least four times faster and bigger in magnitude than the effects of decadal-scale mean changes throughout the 21st century. With MHWs, we project a doubling of impact levels by 2050 amongst the most important fisheries species over previous assessments that focus only on long-term climate change. Our results underscore the additional challenges from MHWs for fisheries and their management under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- William W L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., V6T 1Z4, Canada.
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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29
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Oyinlola MA, Reygondeau G, Wabnitz CCC, Cheung WWL. Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2134-2148. [PMID: 32037631 PMCID: PMC7154552 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14974] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2019] [Revised: 12/16/2019] [Accepted: 12/17/2019] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio-economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%-40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the 'no mitigation policy' scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid-21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 ('strong mitigation') and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammed A. Oyinlola
- Nippon Foundation‐the University of British ColumbiaNereus Program and Changing Ocean Research UnitInstitute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCCanada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Nippon Foundation‐the University of British ColumbiaNereus Program and Changing Ocean Research UnitInstitute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCCanada
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Max PlanckYale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global ChangeYale UniversityNew HavenCTUSA
| | - Colette C. C. Wabnitz
- Nippon Foundation‐the University of British ColumbiaNereus Program and Changing Ocean Research UnitInstitute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCCanada
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Nippon Foundation‐the University of British ColumbiaNereus Program and Changing Ocean Research UnitInstitute for the Oceans and FisheriesThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCCanada
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30
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Colombo SM, Rodgers TFM, Diamond ML, Bazinet RP, Arts MT. Projected declines in global DHA availability for human consumption as a result of global warming. AMBIO 2020; 49:865-880. [PMID: 31512173 PMCID: PMC7028814 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01234-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2019] [Revised: 05/22/2019] [Accepted: 07/20/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) is an essential, omega-3, long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid that is a key component of cell membranes and plays a vital role in vertebrate brain function. The capacity to synthesize DHA is limited in mammals, despite its critical role in neurological development and health. For humans, DHA is most commonly obtained by eating fish. Global warming is predicted to reduce the de novo synthesis of DHA by algae, at the base of aquatic food chains, and which is expected to reduce DHA transferred to fish. We estimated the global quantity of DHA (total and per capita) currently available from commercial (wild caught and aquaculture) and recreational fisheries. The potential decrease in the amount of DHA available from fish for human consumption was modeled using the predicted effect of established global warming scenarios on algal DHA production and ensuing transfer to fish. We conclude that an increase in water temperature could result, depending on the climate scenario and location, in a ~ 10 to 58% loss of globally available DHA by 2100, potentially limiting the availability of this critical nutrient to humans. Inland waters show the greatest potential for climate-warming-induced decreases in DHA available for human consumption. The projected decrease in DHA availability as a result of global warming would disproportionately affect vulnerable populations (e.g., fetuses, infants), especially in inland Africa (due to low reported per capita DHA availability). We estimated, in the worst-case scenario, that DHA availability could decline to levels where 96% of the global population may not have access to sufficient DHA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefanie M. Colombo
- Present Address: Department of Animal Science and Aquaculture, Faculty of Agriculture, Dalhousie University, 58 Sipu Road, Haley Building, Bible Hill, Truro, NS B2N 5E3 Canada
- Department of Chemistry and Biology, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria St., Toronto, ON M5B 2K3 Canada
| | - Timothy F. M. Rodgers
- Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON Canada
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Toronto, 22 Russell St., Toronto, ON M5S 3B1 Canada
| | - Miriam L. Diamond
- Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON Canada
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Toronto, 22 Russell St., Toronto, ON M5S 3B1 Canada
| | - Richard P. Bazinet
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, University of Toronto, Medical Sciences Building, 5th Floor, Room 5358, 1 King’s College Circle, Toronto, ON M5S 1A8 Canada
| | - Michael T. Arts
- Department of Chemistry and Biology, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria St., Toronto, ON M5B 2K3 Canada
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31
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Abu Samah A, Shaffril HAM. A comparative study between mainland and islander small-scale fishermen's adaptation towards climate change. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:11277-11289. [PMID: 31965496 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-07143-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2019] [Accepted: 11/21/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The existing literature have demonstrated a considerable amount of existing studies that merely interest on scientific perspectives by examining the physical environmental changes rather than conducting social-based studies that allow for the comparison of adaptation ability between mainland and island small-scale fishermen. Therefore, the current research attempts to fill this gap by investigating the adaptation level of mainland and island small-scale fishermen towards climate changes for the purpose of further identifying any significant differences regarding their adaptation aspects. The primary aim of the current research is to conduct a comparative study with the purpose of assessing the environmental change adaptation ability between the mainland and the islander small-scale fishermen. In the context of the current research, a quantitative approach was employed by selecting a total of 600 samples through several levels of cluster sampling. The instrument for the study was developed based on the 16 adaptation variables that were suggested within the adaptation framework proposed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. The data were analysed using SPSS, whereby to achieve the study's main objective, inferential analysis which refers to the independent t test was performed to examine any possible significant difference that might exist. In regard to this matter, various significant differences between the islander and the mainland fishermen managed to be detected in 10 adaptation aspects out of the 16 adaptation variables which include the capacity to adapt to change (monetary and emotional adaptability); the level of interest in adapting to change; the ability to plan, learn, and reorganize; and attachment to occupation. Accordingly, a number of recommendations were discussed at the end of this study which is hoped to assist the involved and relevant parties in arranging better adjustment approaches for small-scale fishermen in Malaysia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Asnarulkhadi Abu Samah
- Faculty of Human Ecology, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.
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32
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Boschetti F, Lozano-Montes H, Stelfox B. Modelling regional futures at decadal scale: application to the Kimberley region. Sci Rep 2020; 10:849. [PMID: 31964923 PMCID: PMC6972922 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-56646-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2019] [Accepted: 12/13/2019] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
We address the question of how to provide meaningful scientific information to support environmental decision making at the regional scale and at the temporal scale of several decades in a network of marine parks in the Kimberley region of Western Australia. Where environmental sustainability is affected by slow-dynamics climate change processes and one-off investments in large infrastructure which can affect a region for decades to come, both strategic and reactive planning is necessary and prediction becomes as urgent as standard adaptive management. At the interface between future studies, socio-economic modelling and environmental modelling, we define 18 scenarios of economic development and climate change impacts and five management strategies. We explore these potential futures using coupled models of terrestrial and marine ecosystem dynamics. We obtain a projection of the Kimberley marine system to the year 2050, conditional on the chosen scenarios and management strategies. Our results suggest that climate change, not economic development, is the largest factor affecting the future of marine ecosystems in the Kimberley region, with site-attached species such as reef fish at greatest risk. These same species also benefit most from more stringent management strategies, especially expansion of sanctuary zones and Marine Protected Areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabio Boschetti
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organisation, Canberra, Australia.
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33
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Whitney CK, Conger T, Ban NC, McPhie R. Synthesizing and communicating climate change impacts to inform coastal adaptation planning. Facets (Ott) 2020. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2019-0027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Planning for adaptation to climate change requires regionally relevant information on rising air and ocean temperatures, sea levels, increasingly frequent and intense storms, and other climate-related impacts. However, in many regions there are limited focused syntheses of the climate impacts, risks, and potential adaptation strategies for coastal marine areas and sectors. We report on a regional assessment of climate change impacts and recommendations for adaptation strategies in the NE Pacific Coast (British Columbia, Canada), conducted in collaboration with a regional planning and plan implementation partnership (Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast), aimed at bridging the gaps between climate science and regional adaptation planning. We incorporated both social and ecological aspects of climate change impacts and adaptations, and the feedback mechanisms which may result in both increased risks and opportunities for the following areas of interest: “Ecosystems”, “Fisheries and Aquaculture”, “Communities”, and “Marine Infrastructure”. As next steps within the region, we propose proactive planning measures including communication of the key impacts and projections and cross-sectoral assessments of climate vulnerability and risk to direct decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte K. Whitney
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, David Turpin Building, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
- Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, 2489 Sinclair Road, Victoria, BC V8N 6M2, Canada
| | - Tugce Conger
- Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, 2489 Sinclair Road, Victoria, BC V8N 6M2, Canada
- Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, 2329 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Natalie C. Ban
- School of Environmental Studies, University of Victoria, David Turpin Building, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, BC V8P 5C2, Canada
| | - Romney McPhie
- Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast (MaPP)
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34
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Thiault L, Mora C, Cinner JE, Cheung WWL, Graham NAJ, Januchowski-Hartley FA, Mouillot D, Sumaila UR, Claudet J. Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaaw9976. [PMID: 31807697 PMCID: PMC6881155 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2019] [Accepted: 10/28/2019] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a "business-as-usual" emission scenario, ~90% of the world's population-most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries-are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries-including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers-would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies' vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauric Thiault
- National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France
- Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL, Moorea, French Polynesia
- Corresponding author.
| | - Camilo Mora
- Department of Geography, University of Hawai’i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai’i 96822, USA
| | - Joshua E. Cinner
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Queensland, Australia
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada
| | | | - Fraser A. Januchowski-Hartley
- UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-UM-IFREMER, Université de Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier Cedex, France
- UMR ENTROPIE, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - David Mouillot
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Queensland, Australia
- UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-UM-IFREMER, Université de Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier Cedex, France
| | - U. Rashid Sumaila
- Fisheries Economics Research Unit, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada
| | - Joachim Claudet
- National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France
- Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL, Moorea, French Polynesia
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35
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Spencer PD, Hollowed AB, Sigler MF, Hermann AJ, Nelson MW. Trait-based climate vulnerability assessments in data-rich systems: An application to eastern Bering Sea fish and invertebrate stocks. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:3954-3971. [PMID: 31531923 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2019] [Accepted: 06/08/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Trait-based climate vulnerability assessments based on expert evaluation have emerged as a rapid tool to assess biological vulnerability when detailed correlative or mechanistic studies are not feasible. Trait-based assessments typically view vulnerability as a combination of sensitivity and exposure to climate change. However, in some locations, a substantial amount of information may exist on system productivity and environmental conditions (both current and projected), with potential disparities in the information available for data-rich and data-poor stocks. Incorporating this level of detailed information poses challenges when conducting, and communicating uncertainty from, rapid vulnerability assessments. We applied a trait-based vulnerability assessment to 36 fish and invertebrate stocks in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS), a data-rich ecosystem. In recent years, the living marine resources of the EBS and Aleutian Islands have supported fisheries worth more than US $1 billion of annual ex-vessel value. Our vulnerability assessment uses projections (to 2039) from three downscaled climate models, and graphically characterizes the variation in climate projections between climate models and between seasons. Bootstrapping was used to characterize uncertainty in specific biological traits and environmental variables, and in the scores for sensitivity, exposure, and vulnerability. The sensitivity of EBS stocks to climate change ranged from "low" to "high," but vulnerability ranged between "low" and "moderate" due to limited exposure to climate change. Comparison with more detailed studies reveals that water temperature is an important variable for projecting climate impacts on stocks such as walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), and sensitivity analyses revealed that modifying the rule for determining vulnerability increased the vulnerability scores. This study demonstrates the importance of considering several uncertainties (e.g., climate projections, biological, and model structure) when conducting climate vulnerability assessments, and can be extended in future research to consider the vulnerability of user groups dependent on these stocks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul D Spencer
- NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Anne B Hollowed
- NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michael F Sigler
- NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Juneau, AK, USA
| | - Albert J Hermann
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Mark W Nelson
- NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD, USA
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36
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Durant JM, Molinero JC, Ottersen G, Reygondeau G, Stige LC, Langangen Ø. Contrasting effects of rising temperatures on trophic interactions in marine ecosystems. Sci Rep 2019; 9:15213. [PMID: 31645657 PMCID: PMC6811528 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-51607-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2019] [Accepted: 09/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
In high-latitude marine environments, primary producers and their consumers show seasonal peaks of abundance in response to annual light cycle, water column stability and nutrient availability. Predatory species have adapted to this pattern by synchronising life-history events such as reproduction with prey availability. However, changing temperatures may pose unprecedented challenges by decoupling the predator-prey interactions. Here we build a predator-prey model accounting for the full life-cycle of fish and zooplankton including their phenology. The model assumes that fish production is bottom-up controlled by zooplankton prey abundance and match or mismatch between predator and prey phenology, and is parameterised based on empirical findings of how climate influences phenology and prey abundance. With this model, we project possible climate-warming effects on match-mismatch dynamics in Arcto-boreal and temperate biomes. We find a strong dependence on synchrony with zooplankton prey in the Arcto-boreal fish population, pointing towards a possible pronounced population decline with warming because of frequent desynchronization with its zooplankton prey. In contrast, the temperate fish population appears better able to track changes in prey timing and hence avoid strong population decline. These results underline that climate change may enhance the risks of predator-prey seasonal asynchrony and fish population declines at higher latitudes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joël M Durant
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway.
| | - Juan-Carlos Molinero
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR248 MARBEC, IRD/CNRS/IFREMER/UM, Sète Cedex, France
| | - Geir Ottersen
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway
- Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, N-5817, Bergen, Norway
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Aquatic Ecosystems Research Lab, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Leif Christian Stige
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway
| | - Øystein Langangen
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway
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37
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Marushka L, Kenny TA, Batal M, Cheung WWL, Fediuk K, Golden CD, Salomon AK, Sadik T, Weatherdon LV, Chan HM. Potential impacts of climate-related decline of seafood harvest on nutritional status of coastal First Nations in British Columbia, Canada. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0211473. [PMID: 30811408 PMCID: PMC6392226 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2018] [Accepted: 01/15/2019] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Traditional food systems are under pressure from various stressors, including climate change which is projected to negatively alter the abundance of marine species harvested by coastal First Nations (FNs) in British Columbia (BC). OBJECTIVE To model the potential impacts of the climate-related declines in seafood production on the nutritional status of coastal BC FNs. In addition, we projected potential changes in nutrient intakes, under different scenarios of substitution where traditional seafood is replaced with alternative non-traditional foods. METHODS The study design is a mixed-method approach that combines two datasets: projected scenarios of climate-related change on seafood catch potential for coastal BC FNs and data derived from the cross-sectional First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study. The consumption of seafood was estimated using a food frequency questionnaire among 356 FNs. The contribution of seafood consumption to protein, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), vitamins (A, B12, D, niacin), and minerals (zinc, selenium and iron) requirements was assessed using Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs). RESULTS Traditional seafood consumption provided daily recommendations of EPA+DHA (74-184%) and vitamin B12 (84-152%) and substantial levels of niacin (28-55%), selenium (29-55%), vitamin D (15-30%) and protein (14-30%). Projected climate change was estimated to reduce the intakes of essential nutrients by 21% and 31% under 'strong mitigation' (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP2.6) and 'business-as-usual' (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios, respectively, by the year 2050 relative to 2000. The hypothetical substitution of seafood with selected alternative non-traditional foods does not provide adequate amounts of nutrients. CONCLUSION Traditionally-harvested seafood remains fundamental to the contemporary diet and health of coastal BC FNs. Potential dietary shifts aggravated by climate-related declines in seafood consumption may have significant nutritional and health implications for BC FN. Strategies to improve access to seafood harvest potential in coastal communities are needed to ensure nutritional health and overall well-being and to promote food security and food sovereignty in coastal FNs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lesya Marushka
- Biology Department, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tiff-Annie Kenny
- Biology Department, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Malek Batal
- Nutrition Department, Faculty of Medicine, Université de Montréal, Pavillon Liliane de Stewart, Montreal, Québec, Canada
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Karen Fediuk
- Dietitian and Nutrition Researcher, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Christopher D. Golden
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Anne K. Salomon
- School of Resource & Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Tonio Sadik
- Assembly of First Nations, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Hing Man Chan
- Biology Department, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
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38
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Asch RG, Erisman B. Spawning aggregations act as a bottleneck influencing climate change impacts on a critically endangered reef fish. DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca G. Asch
- Department of Biology; East Carolina University; Greenville North Carolina
| | - Brad Erisman
- Marine Science Institute; University of Texas at Austin; Port Aransas Texas
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39
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Seltenrich N. Down to Earth: The Emerging Field of Planetary Health. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2018; 126:072001. [PMID: 30007903 PMCID: PMC6108860 DOI: 10.1289/ehp2374] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2017] [Accepted: 07/05/2017] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
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40
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Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0196127. [PMID: 29768423 PMCID: PMC5955691 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0196127] [Citation(s) in RCA: 147] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2017] [Accepted: 04/06/2018] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.
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41
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Abstract
This paper aims to highlight the risk of climate change on coupled marine human and natural systems and explore possible solutions to reduce such risk. Specifically, it explores some of the key responses of marine fish stocks and fisheries to climate change and their implications for human society. It highlights the importance of mitigating carbon emission and achieving the Paris Agreement in reducing climate risk on marine fish stocks and fisheries. Finally, it discusses potential opportunities for helping fisheries to reduce climate threats, through local adaptation. A research direction in fish biology and ecology is proposed that would help support the development of these potential solutions.
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Affiliation(s)
- W W L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
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42
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Freer JJ, Partridge JC, Tarling GA, Collins MA, Genner MJ. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty. MARINE BIOLOGY 2017; 165:7. [PMID: 29170567 PMCID: PMC5680362 DOI: 10.1007/s00227-017-3239-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2017] [Accepted: 09/26/2017] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer J. Freer
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Life Sciences Building, 24 Tyndall Avenue, Bristol, BS8 1TQ UK
| | - Julian C. Partridge
- School of Biological Sciences and Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009 Australia
| | - Geraint A. Tarling
- British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET UK
| | - Martin A. Collins
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT UK
| | - Martin J. Genner
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Life Sciences Building, 24 Tyndall Avenue, Bristol, BS8 1TQ UK
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43
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Bonebrake TC, Brown CJ, Bell JD, Blanchard JL, Chauvenet A, Champion C, Chen IC, Clark TD, Colwell RK, Danielsen F, Dell AI, Donelson JM, Evengård B, Ferrier S, Frusher S, Garcia RA, Griffis RB, Hobday AJ, Jarzyna MA, Lee E, Lenoir J, Linnetved H, Martin VY, McCormack PC, McDonald J, McDonald-Madden E, Mitchell N, Mustonen T, Pandolfi JM, Pettorelli N, Possingham H, Pulsifer P, Reynolds M, Scheffers BR, Sorte CJB, Strugnell JM, Tuanmu MN, Twiname S, Vergés A, Villanueva C, Wapstra E, Wernberg T, Pecl GT. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2017; 93:284-305. [PMID: 28568902 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 106] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2016] [Revised: 05/03/2017] [Accepted: 05/05/2017] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy C Bonebrake
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, 999077, China
| | | | - Johann D Bell
- Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia.,Conservation International, Arlington, VA, 22202, U.S.A
| | - Julia L Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Alienor Chauvenet
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia
| | - Curtis Champion
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - I-Ching Chen
- Department of Life Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 701, Republic of China
| | - Timothy D Clark
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Hobart, 7000, Australia
| | - Robert K Colwell
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Natural History Museum of Denmark, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, U.S.A.,University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, Boulder, CO, 80309, U.S.A.,Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970, Goiânia, Brazil
| | - Finn Danielsen
- Nordic Foundation for Development and Ecology (NORDECO), Copenhagen, DK-1159, Denmark
| | - Anthony I Dell
- National Great Rivers Research and Education Center (NGRREC), East Alton, IL, 62024, U.S.A.,Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, 631303, USA
| | - Jennifer M Donelson
- School of Life Sciences, University of Technology, Sydney, 2007, Australia.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, Australia
| | - Birgitta Evengård
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Clinical Microbiology, Umea University, 90187, Umea, Sweden
| | | | - Stewart Frusher
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Raquel A Garcia
- Department of Statistical Sciences, Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa.,Faculty of Science, Department of Botany and Zoology, Centre for Invasion Biology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, 7602, South Africa
| | - Roger B Griffis
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD, 20910, U.S.A
| | - Alistair J Hobday
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, 7000, Australia
| | - Marta A Jarzyna
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, U.S.A
| | - Emma Lee
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Jonathan Lenoir
- UR « Ecologie et dynamique des systèmes anthropisés » (EDYSAN, FRE 3498 CNRS-UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, FR-80037, Amiens Cedex 1, France
| | - Hlif Linnetved
- Faculty of Science, Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen, DK-1958, Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Victoria Y Martin
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14850, U.S.A
| | | | - Jan McDonald
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia
| | - Eve McDonald-Madden
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia.,School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia
| | - Nicola Mitchell
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, Australia
| | - Tero Mustonen
- Snowchange Cooperative, University of Eastern Finland, 80130, Joensuu, Finland
| | - John M Pandolfi
- School of Biological Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia
| | | | - Hugh Possingham
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia.,Grand Challenges in Ecosystems and the Environment, Silwood Park, Imperial College, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - Peter Pulsifer
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, U.S.A
| | - Mark Reynolds
- The Nature Conservancy, San Francisco, CA, 94105, U.S.A
| | - Brett R Scheffers
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida/IFAS, Gainesville, FL, 32611, U.S.A
| | - Cascade J B Sorte
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, U.S.A
| | - Jan M Strugnell
- Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, Australia
| | - Mao-Ning Tuanmu
- Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, 115, Republic of China
| | - Samantha Twiname
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Adriana Vergés
- Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation and Evolution & Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2052, Australia
| | - Cecilia Villanueva
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
| | - Erik Wapstra
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
| | - Thomas Wernberg
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, Australia.,UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, 6009, Australia
| | - Gretta T Pecl
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.,Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia
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44
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Myers SS, Smith MR, Guth S, Golden CD, Vaitla B, Mueller ND, Dangour AD, Huybers P. Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition. Annu Rev Public Health 2017; 38:259-277. [PMID: 28125383 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 263] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel S Myers
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; , , , .,Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138;
| | - Matthew R Smith
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; , , ,
| | - Sarah Guth
- Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138;
| | - Christopher D Golden
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; , , , .,Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138;
| | - Bapu Vaitla
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115; , , ,
| | - Nathaniel D Mueller
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; , .,Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138
| | - Alan D Dangour
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;
| | - Peter Huybers
- Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; .,Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; ,
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45
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Cheung WWL, Reygondeau G, Frölicher TL. Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target. Science 2016; 354:1591-1594. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aag2331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 144] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2016] [Accepted: 11/16/2016] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
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46
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Queirós AM, Huebert KB, Keyl F, Fernandes JA, Stolte W, Maar M, Kay S, Jones MC, Hamon KG, Hendriksen G, Vermard Y, Marchal P, Teal LR, Somerfield PJ, Austen MC, Barange M, Sell AF, Allen I, Peck MA. Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:3927-3936. [PMID: 27396719 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2016] [Revised: 06/03/2016] [Accepted: 06/28/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana M Queirós
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Klaus B Huebert
- University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, 22767, Germany
- Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, 21613, USA
| | - Friedemann Keyl
- Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Palmaille 9, Hamburg, 22767, Germany
| | - Jose A Fernandes
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Willem Stolte
- Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, The Netherlands
| | - Marie Maar
- Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, The Netherlands
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, PO Box 358, Roskilde, 4000, Denmark
| | - Susan Kay
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Miranda C Jones
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK
| | - Katell G Hamon
- LEI - Wageningen UR, Alexanderveld 5, The Hague, 2585 DB, The Netherlands
| | | | - Youen Vermard
- Département Ressources Biologiques et Environnement, Institut Français de Recherche Pour L'Exploitation de la Mer, Quai Gambetta BP 699, Boulogne-sur-Mer, 62321, France
| | - Paul Marchal
- Département Ressources Biologiques et Environnement, Institut Français de Recherche Pour L'Exploitation de la Mer, Quai Gambetta BP 699, Boulogne-sur-Mer, 62321, France
| | - Lorna R Teal
- IMARES, Haringkade 1, Ijmuiden, 1976CP, The Netherlands
| | | | - Melanie C Austen
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Manuel Barange
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources Division, Food and Agricultural Organization, Viale Delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome, 00153, Italy
| | - Anne F Sell
- Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, 21613, USA
| | - Icarus Allen
- Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
| | - Myron A Peck
- University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, 22767, Germany
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47
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Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change. Sci Rep 2016; 6:32607. [PMID: 27600330 PMCID: PMC5013467 DOI: 10.1038/srep32607] [Citation(s) in RCA: 142] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/11/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.
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48
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Golden CD, Allison EH, Cheung WWL, Dey MM, Halpern BS, McCauley DJ, Smith M, Vaitla B, Zeller D, Myers SS. Nutrition: Fall in fish catch threatens human health. Nature 2016; 534:317-20. [PMID: 27306172 DOI: 10.1038/534317a] [Citation(s) in RCA: 201] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Christopher D Golden
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; and associate director of the Planetary Health Alliance at the Harvard University Center for the Environment, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Edward H Allison
- School of Marine and Environment Affairs at the University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - William W L Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit; and director of the Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Madan M Dey
- Aquaculture/Fisheries Center of Excellence, University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, Pine Bluff, Arkansas, USA
| | - Benjamin S Halpern
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - Douglas J McCauley
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - Matthew Smith
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Bapu Vaitla
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Dirk Zeller
- Sea Around Us, Global Fisheries Cluster, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Samuel S Myers
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; and director of the Planetary Health Alliance at the Harvard University Center for the Environment, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
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