Modelling nationwide spatial variation of ultrafine particles based on mobile monitoring

Spatial and spatiotemporal modelling of intra-urban ultrafine particles: A comparison of linear, nonlinear, regularized, and machine learning methods

BACKGROUND

Machine learning methods are proposed to improve the predictions of ambient air pollution, yet few studies have compared ultrafine particles (UFP) models across a broad range of statistical and machine learning approaches, and only one compared spatiotemporal models. Most reported marginal differences between methods. This limits our ability to draw conclusions about the best methods to model ambient UFPs.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance and predictions of statistical and machine learning methods used to model spatial and spatiotemporal ambient UFPs.

METHODS

Daily and annual models were developed from UFP measurements from a year-long mobile monitoring campaign in Quebec City, Canada, combined with 262 geospatial and six meteorological predictors. Various road segment lengths were considered (100/300/500 m) for UFP data aggregation. Four statistical methods included linear, non-linear, and regularized regressions, whereas eight machine learning regressions utilized tree-based, neural networks, support vector, and kernel ridge algorithms. Nested cross-validation was used for model training, hyperparameter tuning and performance evaluation.

RESULTS

Mean annual UFP concentrations was 13,335 particles/cm3. Machine learning outperformed statistical methods in predicting UFPs. Tree-based methods performed best across temporal scales and segment lengths, with XGBoost producing the overall best performing models (annual R2 = 0.78-0.86, RMSE = 2163-2169 particles/cm3; daily R2 = 0.47-0.48, RMSE = 8651-11,422 particles/cm3). With 100 m segments, other annual models performed similarly well, but their prediction surfaces of annual mean UFP concentrations showed signs of overfitting. Spatial aggregation of monitoring data significantly impacted model performance. Longer segments yielded lower RMSE in all daily models and for annual statistical models, but not for annual machine learning models.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of tree-based methods significantly improved spatiotemporal predictions of UFP concentrations, and to a lesser extent annual concentrations. Segment length and hyperparameter tuning had notable impacts on model performance and should be considered in future studies.

Air pollution exposure and mortality from neurodegenerative diseases in the Netherlands: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Suggestive associations between ambient air pollutants and neurodegeneration have also been reported, but due to the small effect and relatively rare outcomes evidence is yet inconclusive. Our aim was to investigate the associations between long-term air pollution exposure and mortality from neurodegenerative diseases.

METHODS

A Dutch national cohort of 10.8 million adults aged ≥30 years was followed from 2013 until 2019. Annual average concentrations of air pollutants (ultra-fine particles (UFP), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particles (PM2.5 and PM10) and elemental carbon (EC)) were estimated at the home address at baseline, using land-use regression models. The outcome variables were mortality due to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Parkinson's disease, non-vascular dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and multiple sclerosis (MS). Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox models, adjusting for individual and area-level socio-economic status covariates.

RESULTS

We had a follow-up of 71 million person-years. The adjusted HRs for non-vascular dementia were significantly increased for NO2 (1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.05) and PM2.5 (1.02; 95%CI 1.01-1.03) per interquartile range (IQR; 6.52 and 1.47 μg/m3, respectively). The association with PM2.5 was also positive for ALS (1.02; 95%CI 0.97-1.07). These associations remained positive in sensitivity analyses and two-pollutant models. UFP was not associated with any outcome. No association with air pollution was found for Parkinson's disease and MS. Inverse associations were found for Alzheimer's disease.

CONCLUSION

Our findings, using a cohort of more than 10 million people, provide further support for associations between long-term exposure to air pollutants (PM2.5 and particularly NO2) and mortality of non-vascular dementia. No associations were found for Parkinson and MS and an inverse association was observed for Alzheimer's disease.

Hourly land-use regression modeling for NO2 and PM2.5 in the Netherlands

Annual average land-use regression (LUR) models have been widely used to assess spatial patterns of air pollution exposures. However, they fail to capture diurnal variability in air pollution and consequently might result in biased dynamic exposure assessments. In this study we aimed to model average hourly concentrations for two major pollutants, NO2 and PM2.5, for the Netherlands using the LUR algorithm. We modelled the spatial variation of average hourly concentrations for the years 2016-2019 combined, for two seasons, and for two weekday types. Two modelling approaches were used, supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The potential predictors included population, road, land use, satellite retrievals, and chemical transport model pollution estimates variables with different buffer sizes. We also temporally adjusted hourly concentrations from a 2019 annual model using the hourly monitoring data, to compare its performance with the hourly modelling approach. The results showed that hourly NO2 models performed overall well (5-fold cross validation R2 = 0.50-0.78), while the PM2.5 performed moderately (5-fold cross validation R2 = 0.24-0.62). Both for NO2 and PM2.5 the warm season models performed worse than the cold season ones, and the weekends' worse than weekdays'. The performance of the RF and SLR models was similar for both pollutants. For both SLR and RF, variables with larger buffer sizes representing variation in background concentrations, were selected more often in the weekend models compared to the weekdays, and in the warm season compared to the cold one. Temporal adjustment of annual average models performed overall worse than both modelling approaches (NO2 hourly R2 = 0.35-0.70; PM2.5 hourly R2 = 0.01-0.15). The difference in model performance and selection of variables across hours, seasons, and weekday types documents the benefit to develop independent hourly models when matching it to hourly time activity data.

Do Machine Learning Methods Improve Prediction of Ambient Air Pollutants with High Spatial Contrast? A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE

The use of machine learning for air pollution modelling is rapidly increasing. We conducted a systematic review of studies comparing statistical and machine learning models predicting the spatiotemporal variation of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ultrafine particles (UFPs) and black carbon (BC) to determine whether and in which scenarios machine learning generates more accurate predictions.

METHODS

Web of Science and Scopus were searched up to June 13, 2024. All records were screened by two independent reviewers. Differences in the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between best statistical and machine learning methods were compared across categories of methodological elements.

RESULTS

A total of 38 studies with 46 model comparisons (30 for NO2, 8 for UFPs and 8 for BC) were included. Linear non-regularized methods and Random Forest were most frequently used. Machine learning outperformed statistical models in 34 comparisons. Mean differences (95% confidence intervals) in R2 and RMSE between best machine learning and statistical models were 0.12 (0.08, 0.17) and 20% (11%, 29%) respectively. Tree-based methods performed best in 12 of 17 multi-model comparisons. Nonlinear or regularization regression methods were used in only 12 comparisons and provided similar performance to machine learning methods.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review suggests that machine learning methods, especially tree-based methods, may be superior to linear non-regularized methods for predicting ambient concentrations of NO2, UFPs and BC. Additional comparison studies using nonlinear, regularized and a wider array of machine learning methods are needed to confirm their relative performance. Future air pollution studies would also benefit from more explicit and standardized reporting of methodologies and results.

Predicting within-city spatiotemporal variations in daily median outdoor ultrafine particle number concentrations and size in Montreal and Toronto, Canada

Background

Epidemiological evidence suggests that long-term exposure to outdoor ultrafine particles (UFPs, <0.1 μm) may have important human health impacts. However, less is known about the acute health impacts of these pollutants as few models are available to estimate daily within-city spatiotemporal variations in outdoor UFPs.

Methods

Several machine learning approaches (i.e., generalized additive models, random forest models, and extreme gradient boosting) were used to predict daily spatiotemporal variations in outdoor UFPs (number concentration and size) across Montreal and Toronto, Canada using a large database of mobile monitoring measurements. Separate models were developed for each city and all models were evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure.

Results

In total, our models were based on measurements from 12,705 road segments in Montreal and 10,929 road segments in Toronto. Daily median outdoor UFP number concentrations varied substantially across both cities with 1st-99th percentiles ranging from 1389 to 181,672 in Montreal and 2472 to 118,544 in Toronto. Outdoor UFP size tended to be smaller in Montreal (mean [SD]: 34 nm [15]) than in Toronto (mean [SD]: 44 nm [25]). Extreme gradient boosting models performed best and explained the majority of spatiotemporal variations in outdoor UFP number concentrations (Montreal, R 2: 0.727; Toronto, R 2: 0.723) and UFP size (Montreal, R 2: 0.823; Toronto, R 2: 0.898) with slopes close to one and intercepts close to zero for relationships between measured and predicted values.

Conclusion

These new models will be applied in future epidemiological studies examining the acute health impacts of outdoor UFPs in Canada's two largest cities.

High-resolution urban air pollution mapping

Variation in urban air pollution arises because of complex spatial, temporal, and chemical processes, which profoundly affect population exposure, human health, and environmental justice. This Review highlights insights from two popular in situ measurement methods-mobile monitoring and dense sensor networks-that have distinct but complementary strengths in characterizing the dynamics and impacts of the multidimensional urban air quality system. Mobile monitoring can measure many pollutants at fine spatial scales, thereby informing about processes and control strategies. Sensor networks excel at providing temporal resolution at many locations. Increasingly sophisticated studies leveraging both methods can vividly identify spatial and temporal patterns that affect exposures and disparities and offer mechanistic insight toward effective interventions. This Review summarizes the strengths and limitations of these methods and discusses their implications for understanding fine-scale processes and impacts.

High-resolution spatial and spatiotemporal modelling of air pollution using fixed site and mobile monitoring in a Canadian city

The development of high-resolution spatial and spatiotemporal models of air pollutants is essential for exposure science and epidemiological applications. While fixed-site sampling has conventionally provided input data for statistical predictive models, the evolving mobile monitoring method offers improved spatial resolution, ideal for measuring pollutants with high spatial variability such as ultrafine particles (UFP). The Quebec Air Pollution Exposure and Epidemiology (QAPEE) study measured and modelled the spatial and spatiotemporal distributions of understudied pollutants, such as UFPs, black carbon (BC), and brown carbon (BrC), along with fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) in Quebec City, Canada. We conducted a combined fixed-site (NO2 and O3) and mobile monitoring (PM2.5, BC, BrC, and UFPs) campaign over 10-months. Mobile monitoring routes were monitored on a weekly basis between 8am-10am and designed using location/allocation modelling. Seasonal fixed-site sampling campaigns captured continuous 24-h measurements over two-week periods. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), which combined data on pollution concentrations with spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal predictor variables were used to model and predict concentration surfaces. Annual models for PM2.5, NO2, O3 as well as seven of the smallest size fractions in the UFP range, had high out of sample predictive accuracy (range r2: 0.54-0.86). Varying spatial patterns were observed across UFP size ranges measured as Particle Number Counts (PNC). The monthly spatiotemporal models for PM2.5 (r2 = 0.49), BC (r2 = 0.27), BrC (r2 = 0.29), and PNC (r2 = 0.49) had moderate or moderate-low out of sample predictive accuracy. We conducted a sensitivity analysis and found that the minimum number of 'n visits' (mobile monitoring sessions) required to model annually representative air pollution concentrations was between 24 and 32 visits dependent on the pollutant. This study provides a single source of exposure models for a comprehensive set of air pollutants in Quebec City, Canada. These exposure models will feed into epidemiological research on the health impacts of ambient UFPs and other pollutants.

Exploring the triple burden of social disadvantage, mobility poverty, and exposure to traffic-related air pollution

Understanding the relationships between ultrafine particle (UFP) exposure, socioeconomic status (SES), and sustainable transportation accessibility in Toronto, Canada is crucial for promoting public health, addressing environmental justice, and ensuring transportation equity. We conducted a large-scale mobile measurement campaign and employed a gradient boost model to generate exposure surfaces using land use, built environment, and meteorological conditions. The Ontario Marginalization Index was used to quantify various indicators of social disadvantage for Toronto's neighborhoods. Our findings reveal that people in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas experience elevated UFP exposures. We highlight significant disparities in accessing sustainable transportation, particularly in areas with higher ethnic concentrations. When factoring in daily mobility, UFP exposure disparities in disadvantaged populations are further exacerbated. Furthermore, individuals who do not generate emissions themselves are consistently exposed to higher UFPs, with active transportation users experiencing the highest UFP exposures both at home and at activity locations. Finally, we proposed a novel index, the Community Prioritization Index (CPI), incorporating three indicators, including air quality, social disadvantage, and sustainable transportation. This index identifies neighborhoods experiencing a triple burden, often situated near major infrastructure hubs with high diesel truck activity and lacking greenspace, marking them as high-priority areas for policy action and targeted interventions.

Harnessing AI to unmask Copenhagen's invisible air pollutants: A study on three ultrafine particle metrics

Ultrafine particles (UFPs) are airborne particles with a diameter of less than 100 nm. They are emitted from various sources, such as traffic, combustion, and industrial processes, and can have adverse effects on human health. Long-term mean ambient average particle size (APS) in the UFP range varies over space within cities, with locations near UFP sources having typically smaller APS. Spatial models for lung deposited surface area (LDSA) within urban areas are limited and currently there is no model for APS in any European city. We collected particle number concentration (PNC), LDSA, and APS data over one-year monitoring campaign from May 2021 to May 2022 across 27 locations and estimated annual mean in Copenhagen, Denmark, and obtained additionally annual mean PNC data from 6 state-owned continuous monitors. We developed 94 predictor variables, and machine learning models (random forest and bagged tree) were developed for PNC, LDSA, and APS. The annual mean PNC, LDSA, and APS were, respectively, 5523 pt/cm3, 12.0 μm2/cm3, and 46.1 nm. The final R2 values by random forest (RF) model were 0.93 for PNC, 0.88 for LDSA, and 0.85 for APS. The 10-fold, repeated 10-times cross-validation R2 values were 0.65, 0.67, and 0.60 for PNC, LDSA, and APS, respectively. The root mean square error for final RF models were 296 pt/cm3, 0.48 μm2/cm3, and 1.60 nm for PNC, LDSA, and APS, respectively. Traffic-related variables, such as length of major roads within buffers 100-150 m and distance to streets with various speed limits were amongst the highly-ranked predictors for our models. Overall, our ML models achieved high R2 values and low errors, providing insights into UFP exposure in a European city where average PNC is quite low. These hyperlocal predictions can be used to study health effects of UFPs in the Danish Capital.

Estimation of historical daily airborne pollen concentrations across Switzerland using a spatio temporal random forest model

High concentrations of airborne pollen trigger seasonal allergies and possibly more severe adverse respiratory and cardiovascular health events. Predicting pollen concentration accurately is valuable for epidemiological studies, in order to study the effects of pollen exposure. We aimed to develop a spatiotemporal machine learning model predicting daily pollen concentrations at a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km across Switzerland between 2000 and 2019. Daily pollen concentrations for five common, highly allergenic pollen types (hazel, alder, birch ash, and grasses) were available from fourteen measurement sites across Switzerland. We considered several predictors such as elevation, species distribution, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, satellite-observed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and land-use (CORINE, Landsat satellite) to explain variation in pollen concentration. We employed feature engineering techniques to encode categorical variables and fill in missing values. We applied a random forest machine learning model with 5-fold cross-validation. The 5th-99th percentiles for concentrations of hazel, alder, birch, ash, and grass pollen at the pollen monitoring stations were 0-298, 0-306, 0-1153, 0-800, and 0-290 pollen grains/m3, respectively. The results of a predictive model for these concentrations yielded overall R2 values of 0.87, 0.84, 0.89, 0.88, and 0.91, and temporal root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of 16.07, 16.72, 69.04, 41.50, and 22.45 pollen grains/m3. An analysis of predictor variable importance indicates that the average national daily pollen concentration is the most important predictor of pollen concentrations for all pollen types. Furthermore, meteorological variables including temperature, total precipitation, humidity, boundary layer height, wind speed, and wind direction, as well as date and satellite features, are important factors in pollen concentration prediction. These spatiotemporal pollen models will serve to estimate individual residential pollen exposure for epidemiological studies. Resulting estimates will enable us to study respiratory and cardiovascular mortality and hospital admissions in Switzerland.

Characterizing Ultrafine Particle Mobile Monitoring Data for Epidemiology

Mobile monitoring is increasingly used to assess exposure to traffic-related air pollutants (TRAPs), including ultrafine particles (UFPs). Due to the rapid spatial decrease in the concentration of UFPs and other TRAPs with distance from roadways, mobile measurements may be non-representative of residential exposures, which are commonly used for epidemiologic studies. Our goal was to develop, apply, and test one possible approach for using mobile measurements in exposure assessment for epidemiology. We used an absolute principal component score model to adjust the contribution of on-road sources in mobile measurements to provide exposure predictions representative of cohort locations. We then compared UFP predictions at residential locations from mobile on-road plume-adjusted versus stationary measurements to understand the contribution of mobile measurements and characterize their differences. We found that predictions from mobile measurements are more representative of cohort locations after down-weighting the contribution of localized on-road plumes. Further, predictions at cohort locations derived from mobile measurements incorporate more spatial variation compared to those from short-term stationary data. Sensitivity analyses suggest that this additional spatial information captures features in the exposure surface not identified from the stationary data alone. We recommend the correction of mobile measurements to create exposure predictions representative of residential exposure for epidemiology.

Long-term exposure to ultrafine particles and natural and cause-specific mortality

BACKGROUND

Health implications of long-term exposure to ubiquitously present ultrafine particles (UFP) are uncertain. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between long-term UFP exposure and natural and cause-specific mortality (including cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, and lung cancer) in the Netherlands.

METHODS

A Dutch national cohort of 10.8 million adults aged ≥ 30 years was followed from 2013 until 2019. Annual average UFP concentrations were estimated at the home address at baseline, using land-use regression models based on a nationwide mobile monitoring campaign performed at the midpoint of the follow-up period. Cox proportional hazard models were applied, adjusting for individual and area-level socio-economic status covariates. Two-pollutant models with the major regulated pollutants nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and fine particles (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), and the health relevant combustion aerosol pollutant (elemental carbon (EC)) were assessed based on dispersion modelling.

RESULTS

A total of 945,615 natural deaths occurred during 71,008,209 person-years of follow-up. The correlation of UFP concentration with other pollutants ranged from moderate (0.59 (PM_2.5)) to high (0.81 (NO₂)). We found a significant association between annual average UFP exposure and natural mortality [HR 1.012 (95 % CI 1.010-1.015), per interquartile range (IQR) (2723 particles/cm³) increment]. Associations were stronger for respiratory disease mortality [HR 1.022 (1.013-1.032)] and lung cancer mortality [HR 1.038 (1.028-1.048)] and weaker for CVD mortality [HR 1.005 (1.000-1.011)]. The associations of UFP with natural and lung cancer mortality attenuated but remained significant in all two-pollutant models, whereas the associations with CVD and respiratory mortality attenuated to the null.

CONCLUSION

Long-term UFP exposure was associated with natural and lung cancer mortality among adults independently from other regulated air pollutants.

Design and evaluation of short-term monitoring campaigns for long-term air pollution exposure assessment

BACKGROUND

Short-term mobile monitoring campaigns to estimate long-term air pollution levels are becoming increasingly common. Still, many campaigns have not conducted temporally-balanced sampling, and few have looked at the implications of such study designs for epidemiologic exposure assessment.

OBJECTIVE

We carried out a simulation study using fixed-site air quality monitors to better understand how different short-term monitoring designs impact the resulting exposure surfaces.

METHODS

We used Monte Carlo resampling to simulate three archetypal short-term monitoring sampling designs using oxides of nitrogen (NOx) monitoring data from 69 regulatory sites in California: a year-around Balanced Design that sampled during all seasons of the year, days of the week, and all or various hours of the day; a temporally reduced Rush Hours Design; and a temporally reduced Business Hours Design. We evaluated the performance of each design's land use regression prediction model.

RESULTS

The Balanced Design consistently yielded the most accurate annual averages; while the reduced Rush Hours and Business Hours Designs generally produced more biased results.

SIGNIFICANCE

A temporally-balanced sampling design is crucial for short-term campaigns such as mobile monitoring aiming to assess long-term exposure in epidemiologic cohorts.

IMPACT STATEMENT

Short-term monitoring campaigns to assess long-term air pollution trends are increasingly common, though they rarely conduct temporally balanced sampling. We show that this approach produces biased annual average exposure estimates that can be improved by collecting temporally-balanced samples.

A hybrid model for estimating the number concentration of ultrafine particles based on machine learning algorithms in central Taiwan

Modeling is a cost-effective measure to estimate ultrafine particle (UFP) levels. Previous UFP estimates generally relied on land-use regression with insufficient temporal resolution. We carried out in-situ measurements for UFP in central Taiwan and developed a model incorporating satellite-based measurements, meteorological variables, and land-use data to estimate daily UFP levels at a 1-km resolution. Two sampling campaigns were conducted for measuring hourly UFP concentrations at six sites between 2008-2010 and 2017-2021, respectively, using scanning mobility particle sizers. Three machine learning algorithms, namely random forest, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and deep neural network, were used to develop UFP estimation models. The performances were evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation, temporal, and spatial validation. A total of 1,022 effective sampling days were conducted. The XGBoost model had the best performance with a training coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.99 [normalized root mean square error (nRMSE): 6.52%] and a cross-validation R² of 0.78 (nRMSE: 31.0%). The ten most important variables were surface pressure, distance to the nearest road, temperature, calendar year, day of the year, NO₂, meridional wind, the total length of roads, PM_2.5, and zonal wind. The UFP levels were elevated along the main roads across different seasons, suggesting that traffic emission is an important contributor to UFP. This hybrid model outperformed prior land use regression models and thus can provide more accurate estimates of UFP for epidemiological studies.

Exposure assessment for air pollution epidemiology: A scoping review of emerging monitoring platforms and designs

BACKGROUND

Both exposure monitoring and exposure prediction have played key roles in assessing individual-level long-term exposure to air pollutants and their associations with human health. While there have been notable advances in exposure prediction methods, improvements in monitoring designs are also necessary, particularly given new monitoring paradigms leveraging low-cost sensors and mobile platforms.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to provide a conceptual summary of novel monitoring designs for air pollution cohort studies that leverage new paradigms and technologies, to investigate their characteristics in real-world examples, and to offer practical guidance to future studies.

METHODS

We propose a conceptual summary that focuses on two overarching types of monitoring designs, mobile and non-mobile, as well as their subtypes. We define mobile designs as monitoring from a moving platform, and non-mobile designs as stationary monitoring from permanent or temporary locations. We only consider non-mobile studies with cost-effective sampling devices. Then we discuss similarities and differences across previous studies with respect to spatial and temporal representation, data comparability between design classes, and the data leveraged for model development. Finally, we provide specific suggestions for future monitoring designs.

RESULTS

Most mobile and non-mobile monitoring studies selected monitoring sites based on land use instead of residential locations, and deployed monitors over limited time periods. Some studies applied multiple design and/or sub-design classes to the same area, time period, or instrumentation, to allow comparison. Even fewer studies leveraged monitoring data from different designs to improve exposure assessment by capitalizing on different strengths. In order to maximize the benefit of new monitoring technologies, future studies should adopt monitoring designs that prioritize residence-based site selection with comprehensive temporal coverage and leverage data from different designs for model development in the presence of good data compatibility.

DISCUSSION

Our conceptual overview provides practical guidance on novel exposure assessment monitoring for epidemiological applications.

Exposure to ambient ultrafine particles and allergic sensitization in children up to 16 years

BACKGROUND

Few epidemiological studies so far have investigated the role of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) in inhalant and food allergy development.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the association between UFP exposure and allergic sensitization to inhalant and food allergens in children up to 16 years old in the Netherlands.

METHODS

2295 participants of a prospective birth cohort with IgE measurements to common inhalant and food allergens at ages 4, 8, 12 and/or 16 were included in the study. Annual average UFP concentrations were estimated for the home addresses at birth and at the time of the IgE measurements using land-use regression models. Generalized estimating equations were used for the assessment of overall and age-specific associations between UFP exposure and allergic sensitization. Additionally, single- and two-pollutant models with NO₂, PM_2.5, PM_2.5 absorbance and PM₁₀ were assessed.

RESULTS

We found no significant associations between UFP exposure and allergic sensitization to inhalant and food allergens (OR (95% CI) ranging from 1.02 (0.95-1.10) to 1.05 (0.98-1.12), per IQR increment). NO₂, PM_2.5, PM_2.5 absorbance and PM₁₀ showed significant associations with sensitization to food allergens (OR (95% CI) ranging from 1.09 (1.00-1.20) to 1.23 (1.06-1.43) per IQR increment). NO₂, PM_2.5, PM_2.5 absorbance and PM₁₀ were not associated with sensitization to inhalant allergens. For NO₂, PM_2.5 and PM_2.5 absorbance, the associations with sensitization to food allergens persisted in two-pollutant models with UFP.

CONCLUSION

This study found no association between annual average exposure to UFP and allergic sensitization in children up to 16 years of age. NO₂, PM_2.5, PM_2.5 absorbance and PM₁₀ were associated with sensitization to food allergens.

Ambient ultrafine particle (PM0.1): Sources, characteristics, measurements and exposure implications on human health

The problem of ultrafine particles (UFPs; PM_0.1) has been prevalent since the past decades. In addition to become easily inhaled by human respiratory system due to their ultrafine diameter (<100 nm), ambient UFPs possess various physicochemical properties which make it more toxic. These properties vary based on the emission source profile. The current development of UFPs studies is hindered by the problem of expensive instruments and the inexistence of standardized measurement method. This review provides detailed insights on ambient UFPs sources, physicochemical properties, measurements, and estimation models development. Implications on health impacts due to short-term and long-term exposure of ambient UFPs are also presented alongside the development progress of potentially low-cost UFPs sensors which can be used for future UFPs studies references. Current challenge and future outlook of ambient UFPs research are also discussed in this review. Based on the review results, ambient UFPs may originate from primary and secondary sources which include anthropogenic and natural activities. In addition to that, it is confirmed from various chemical content analysis that UFPs carry heavy metals, PAHs, BCs which are toxic in its nature. Measurement of ambient UFPs may be performed through stationary and mobile methods for environmental profiling and exposure assessment purposes. UFPs PNC estimation model (LUR) developed from measurement data could be deployed to support future epidemiological study of ambient UFPs. Low-cost sensors such as bipolar ion and ionization sensor from common smoke detector device may be further developed as affordable instrument to monitor ambient UFPs. Recent studies indicate that short-term exposure of UFPs can be associated with HRV change and increased cardiopulmonary effects. On the other hand, long-term UFPs exposure have positive association with COPD, CVD, CHF, pre-term birth, asthma, and also acute myocardial infarction cases.

Design, calibration, and testing of a mobile sensor system for air pollution and built environment data collection: The urban scanner platform

This paper describes a mobile air pollution sampling system, the Urban Scanner, which aims at gathering dense spatiotemporal air quality data to support urban air quality and exposure science. Urban Scanner comprises custom vehicle-mounted sensors for air pollution, meteorology, and built environment data collection (low-cost sensors, wind anemometer, 360 deg camera, LIDAR, GPS) as well as a server to store, process, and map all gathered geo-referenced sensory information. Two levels of sensor calibration were implemented, both in a chamber and in the field, against reference instrumentation. Chamber tests and a set of mathematical tools were developed to correct for sensor noise (wavelet denoising), misalignment (linear and nonlinear), and hysteresis removal. Models based on chamber testing were further refined based on field co-location. While field co-location captures natural changes in air pollution and meteorology, chamber tests allow for simulating fast transitions in these variables, like the transitions experienced by a mobile sensor in an urban environment. The best suite of models achieved an R² higher than 0.9 between sensor output and reference station observations and an RMSE of 2.88 ppb for nitrogen dioxide and 4.03 ppb for ozone. A mobile sampling campaign was conducted in the city of Toronto, Canada, to further test Urban Scanner. We observe that the platform adequately captures spatial and temporal variability in urban air pollution, leading to the development of land-use regression models with high explanatory power.

Impact of Mobile Monitoring Network Design on Air Pollution Exposure Assessment Models

Short-term mobile monitoring campaigns are increasingly used to assess long-term air pollution exposure in epidemiology. Little is known about how monitoring network design features, including the number of stops and sampling temporality, impacts exposure assessment models. We address this gap by leveraging an extensive mobile monitoring campaign conducted in the greater Seattle area over the course of a year during all days of the week and most hours. The campaign measured total particle number concentration (PNC; sheds light on ultrafine particulate (UFP) number concentration), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and carbon dioxide (CO2). In Monte Carlo sampling of 7327 total stops (278 sites × 26 visits each), we restricted the number of sites and visits used to estimate annual averages. Predictions from the all-data campaign performed well, with cross-validated R2s of 0.51-0.77. We found similar model performances (85% of the all-data campaign R2) with ∼1000 to 3000 randomly selected stops for NO2, PNC, and BC, and ∼4000 to 5000 stops for PM2.5 and CO2. Campaigns with additional temporal restrictions (e.g., business hours, rush hours, weekdays, or fewer seasons) had reduced model performances and different spatial surfaces. Mobile monitoring campaigns wanting to assess long-term exposure should carefully consider their monitoring designs.

Associations between the urban exposome and type 2 diabetes: Results from penalised regression by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and random forest models

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is thought to be influenced by environmental stressors such as air pollution and noise. Although environmental factors are interrelated, studies considering the exposome are lacking. We simultaneously assessed a variety of exposures in their association with prevalent T2D by applying penalised regression Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Random Forest (RF), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) approaches. We contrasted the findings with single-exposure models including consistently associated risk factors reported by previous studies.

METHODS

Baseline data (n = 14,829) of the Occupational and Environmental Health Cohort study (AMIGO) were enriched with 85 exposome factors (air pollution, noise, built environment, neighbourhood socio-economic factors etc.) using the home addresses of participants. Questionnaires were used to identify participants with T2D (n = 676(4.6 %)). Models in all applied statistical approaches were adjusted for individual-level socio-demographic variables.

RESULTS

Lower average home values, higher share of non-Western immigrants and higher surface temperatures were related to higher risk of T2D in the multivariable models (LASSO, RF). Selected variables differed between the two multi-variable approaches, especially for weaker predictors. Some established risk factors (air pollutants) appeared in univariate analysis but were not among the most important factors in multivariable analysis. Other established factors (green space) did not appear in univariate, but appeared in multivariable analysis (RF). Average estimates of the prediction error (logLoss) from nested cross-validation showed that the LASSO outperformed both RF and ANN approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Neighbourhood socio-economic and socio-demographic characteristics and surface temperature were consistently associated with the risk of T2D. For other physical-chemical factors associations differed per analytical approach.

Ambient ultrafine particles and asthma onset until age 20: The PIAMA birth cohort

RATIONALE

Evidence regarding the role of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (<0.1 μm, UFP) in asthma onset is scarce.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between exposure to UFP and asthma development in the Dutch PIAMA (Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy) birth cohort and assessed whether there is an association with UFP, independent of other air pollutants.

METHODS

Data from birth up to age 20 years from 3687 participants were included. Annual average exposure to UFP at the residential addresses was estimated with a land-use regression model. Overall and age-specific associations of exposure at the birth address and current address at the time of follow-up with asthma incidence were assessed using discrete-time hazard models adjusting for potential confounders. We investigated both single- and two-pollutant models accounting for co-exposure to other air pollutants (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ mass concentrations, nitrogen dioxide, and PM_2.5 absorbance).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 812 incident asthma cases were identified. Overall, we found that higher UFP exposure was associated with higher asthma incidence (adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.08 (1.02,1.14) and 1.06 (1.00, 1.12) per interquartile range increase in exposure at the birth address and current address at the time of follow-up, respectively). Age-specific associations were not consistent. The association was no longer significant after adjustment for other traffic-related pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and PM_2.5 absorbance).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the importance of traffic-related air pollutants for asthma development through childhood and adolescence, but provide little support for an independent effect of UFP.

A Knowledge Transfer Approach to Map Long-Term Concentrations of Hyperlocal Air Pollution from Short-Term Mobile Measurements

Mobile measurements are increasingly used to develop spatially explicit (hyperlocal) air quality maps using land-use regression (LUR) models. The prevailing design of mobile monitoring campaigns results in the collection of short-term, on-road air pollution measurements during daytime on weekdays. We hypothesize that LUR models trained with such mobile measurements are not optimized for estimating long-term average residential air pollution concentrations. To bridge the knowledge gaps in space (on-road versus near-road) and time (short- versus long-term), we propose transfer-learning techniques to adapt LUR models by transferring the mobile knowledge into long-term near-road knowledge in an end-to-end manner. We trained two transfer-learning LUR models by incorporating mobile measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ultrafine particles (UFP) collected by Google Street View cars with long-term near-road measurements from regular monitoring networks in Amsterdam. We found that transfer-learning LUR models performed 55.2% better in predicting long-term near-road concentrations than the LUR model trained only with mobile measurements for NO2 and 26.9% for UFP, evaluated by normalized mean absolute errors. This improvement in model accuracy suggests that transfer-learning models provide a solution for narrowing the knowledge gaps and can improve the accuracy of mapping long-term near-road air pollution concentrations using short-term on-road mobile monitoring data.

Indoor Air Quality Intervention in Schools: Effectiveness of a Portable HEPA Filter Deployment in Five Schools Impacted by Roadway and Aircraft Pollution Sources

The Healthy Air, Healthy Schools Study was established to better understand the impact of ultrafine particles (UFPs) on indoor air quality in communities surrounding Seattle-Tacoma (Sea-Tac) International Airport. The study team took multipollutant measurements of indoor and outdoor air pollution at five participating school locations to estimate infiltration indoors. The schools participating in this project were located within a 7-mile radius of Sea-Tac International Airport and within 0.5 mile of an active flight path. Based on experimental measures in an unoccupied classroom, infiltration rates of (a) UFPs of aircraft origin, (b) UFPs of traffic origin, and (c) wildfire smoke or other outdoor pollutants were characterized before and after the introduction of a portable high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filter intervention. The portable HEPA cleaners were an effective short-term intervention to improve the air quality in classroom environments, reducing the UFP count concentration from one-half to approximately one-tenth of that measured outside. This study is unique in focusing on UFPs in schools and demonstrating that UFPs measured in classroom spaces are primarily of outdoor origin. Although existing research suggests that reducing particulate matter in homes can significantly improve asthma outcomes, further investigation is necessary to establish the benefits to student health and academic performance of reducing UFP exposures in schools.

Europe-wide air pollution modeling from 2000 to 2019 using geographically weighted regression

Previous European land-use regression (LUR) models assumed fixed linear relationships between air pollution concentrations and predictors such as traffic and land use. We evaluated whether including spatially-varying relationships could improve European LUR models by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and random forest (RF). We built separate LUR models for each year from 2000 to 2019 for NO2, O3, PM2.5 and PM10 using annual average monitoring observations across Europe. Potential predictors included satellite retrievals, chemical transport model estimates and land-use variables. Supervised linear regression (SLR) was used to select predictors, and then GWR estimated the potentially spatially-varying coefficients. We developed multi-year models using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). Five-fold cross-validation per year showed that GWR and GTWR explained similar spatial variations in annual average concentrations (average R2 = NO2: 0.66; O3: 0.58; PM10: 0.62; PM2.5: 0.77), which are better than SLR (average R2 = NO2: 0.61; O3: 0.46; PM10: 0.51; PM2.5: 0.75) and RF (average R2 = NO2: 0.64; O3: 0.53; PM10: 0.56; PM2.5: 0.67). The GTWR predictions and a previously-used method of back-extrapolating 2010 model predictions using CTM were overall highly correlated (R2 > 0.8) for all pollutants. Including spatially-varying relationships using GWR modestly improved European air pollution annual LUR models, allowing time-varying exposure-health risk models.

Non-linear models for black carbon exposure modelling using air pollution datasets

Black carbon (BC) is a product of incomplete combustion, present in urban aerosols and sourcing mainly from road traffic. Epidemiological evidence reports positive associations between BC and cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Despite this, BC is currently not regulated by the EU Air Quality Directive, and as a result BC data are not available in urban areas from reference air quality monitoring networks in many countries. To fill this gap, a machine learning approach is proposed to develop a BC proxy using air pollution datasets as an input. The proposed BC proxy is based on two machine learning models, support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF), using observations of particle mass and number concentrations (N), gaseous pollutants and meteorological variables as the input. Experimental data were collected from a reference station in Barcelona (Spain) over a 2-year period (2018-2019). Two months of additional data were available from a second urban site in Barcelona, for model validation. BC concentrations estimated by SVR showed a high degree of correlation with the measured BC concentrations (R² = 0.828) with a relatively low error (RMSE = 0.48 μg/m³). Model performance was dependent on seasonality and time of the day, due to the influence of new particle formation events. When validated at the second station, performance indicators decreased (R² = 0.633; RMSE = 1.19 μg/m³) due to the lack of N data and PM_2.5 and the smaller size of the dataset (2 months). New particle formation events critically impacted model performance, suggesting that its application would be optimal in environments where traffic is the main source of ultrafine particles. Due to its flexibility, it is concluded that the model can act as a BC proxy, even based on EU-regulatory air quality parameters only, to complement experimental measurements for exposure assessment in urban areas.

Characterization of Annual Average Traffic-Related Air Pollution Concentrations in the Greater Seattle Area from a Year-Long Mobile Monitoring Campaign

Growing evidence links traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) to adverse health effects. We designed an innovative and extensive mobile monitoring campaign to characterize TRAP exposure levels for the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study, a Seattle-based cohort. The campaign measured particle number concentration (PNC) to capture ultrafine particles (UFP), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and carbon dioxide (CO2) at 309 roadside sites within a large, 1200 land km2 (463 mi2) area representative of the cohort. We collected about 29 two-minute measurements at each site during all seasons, days of the week, and most times of the day over a 1-year period. Validation showed good agreement between our BC, NO2, and PM2.5 measurements and monitoring agency sites (R2 = 0.68-0.73). Universal kriging-partial least squares models of annual average pollutant concentrations had cross-validated mean square error-based R2 (and root mean square error) values of 0.77 (1177 pt/cm3) for PNC, 0.60 (102 ng/m3) for BC, 0.77 (1.3 ppb) for NO2, 0.70 (0.3 μg/m3) for PM2.5, and 0.51 (4.2 ppm) for CO2. Overall, we found that the design of this extensive campaign captured the spatial pollutant variations well and these were explained by sensible land use features, including those related to traffic.

Mixed-Effects Modeling Framework for Amsterdam and Copenhagen for Outdoor NO2 Concentrations Using Measurements Sampled with Google Street View Cars

High-resolution air quality (AQ) maps based on street-by-street measurements have become possible through large-scale mobile measurement campaigns. Such campaigns have produced data-only maps and have been used to produce empirical models [i.e., land use regression (LUR) models]. Assuming that all road segments are measured, we developed a mixed model framework that predicts concentrations by an LUR model, while allowing road segments to deviate from the LUR prediction based on between-segment variation as a random effect. We used Google Street View cars, equipped with high-quality AQ instruments, and measured the concentration of NO₂ on every street in Amsterdam (n = 46.664) and Copenhagen (n = 28.499) on average seven times over the course of 9 and 16 months, respectively. We compared the data-only mapping, LUR, and mixed model estimates with measurements from passive samplers (n = 82) and predictions from dispersion models in the same time window as mobile monitoring. In Amsterdam, mixed model estimates correlated r_s (Spearman correlation) = 0.85 with external measurements, whereas the data-only approach and LUR model estimates correlated r_s = 0.74 and 0.75, respectively. Mixed model estimates also correlated higher r_s = 0.65 with the deterministic model predictions compared to the data-only (r_s = 0.50) and LUR model (r_s = 0.61). In Copenhagen, mixed model estimates correlated r_s = 0.51 with external model predictions compared to r_s = 0.45 and r_s = 0.50 for data-only and LUR model, respectively. Correlation increased for 97 locations (r_s = 0.65) with more detailed traffic information. This means that the mixed model approach is able to combine the strength of data-only mapping (to show hyperlocal variation) and LUR models by shrinking uncertain concentrations toward the model output.

Quantile regression to examine the association of air pollution with subclinical atherosclerosis in an adolescent population

BACKGROUND

Air pollution has been associated with carotid intima-media thickness test (CIMT), a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report an association between ambient air pollution and CIMT in a younger adolescent population.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the associations beyond standard mean regression by using quantile regression to explore if associations occur at different percentiles of the CIMT distribution.

METHODS

We measured CIMT cross-sectionally at the age of 16 years in 363 adolescents participating in the Dutch PIAMA birth cohort. We fit separate quantile regressions to examine whether the associations of annual averages of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), PM_2.5 absorbance (a marker for black carbon), PM_coarse and ultrafine particles up to age 14 assigned at residential addresses with CIMT varied across deciles of CIMT. False discovery rate corrections (FDR, p < 0.05 for statistical significance) were applied for multiple comparisons. We report quantile regression coefficients that correspond to an average change in CIMT (µm) associated with an interquartile range increase in the exposure.

RESULTS

PM_2.5 absorbance exposure at birth was statistically significantly (FDR < 0.05) associated with a 6.23 µm (95% CI: 0.15, 12.3) higher CIMT per IQR increment in PM_2.5 absorbance in the 10th quantile of CIMT but was not significantly related to other deciles within the CIMT distribution. For NO₂ exposure we found similar effect sizes to PM_2.5 absorbance, but with much wider confidence intervals. PM_2.5 exposure was weakly positively associated with CIMT while PM_coarse and ultrafine did not display any consistent patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Early childhood exposure to ambient air pollution was suggestively associated with the CIMT distribution during adolescence. Since CIMT increases with age, mitigation strategies to reduce traffic-related air pollution early in life could possibly delay atherosclerosis and subsequently CVD development later in life.

Insights from Application of a Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Model to an Intensive Urban Black Carbon Monitoring Dataset

Existing regulatory pollutant monitoring networks rely on a small number of centrally located measurement sites that are purposefully sited away from major emission sources. While informative of general air quality trends regionally, these networks often do not fully capture the local variability of air pollution exposure within a community. Recent technological advancements have reduced the cost of sensors, allowing air quality monitoring campaigns with high spatial resolution. The 100×100 black carbon (BC) monitoring network deployed 100 low-cost BC sensors across the 15 km² West Oakland, CA community for 100 days in the summer of 2017, producing a nearly continuous site-specific time series of BC concentrations which we aggregated to one-hour averages. Leveraging this dataset, we employed a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to accurately predict local spatio-temporal concentration patterns throughout West Oakland, at locations without monitors (average cross-validated hourly temporal R ²=0.60). Using our model, we identified spatially varying temporal pollution patterns associated with small-scale geographic features and proximity to local sources. In a sub-sampling analysis, we demonstrated that fine scale predictions of nearly comparable accuracy can be obtained with our modeling approach by using ~30% of the 100×100 BC network supplemented by a shorter-term high-density campaign.

Air Quality Sensors Systems as Tools to Support Guidance in Athletics Stadia for Elite and Recreational Athletes

While athletes have high exposures to air pollutants due to their increased breathing rates, sport governing bodies have little guidance to support events scheduling or protect stadium users. A key limitation for this is the lack of hyper-local, high time-resolved air quality data representative of exposures in stadia. This work aimed to evaluate whether air quality sensors can describe ambient air quality in Athletics stadia. Sensing nodes were deployed in 6 stadia in major cities around the globe, monitoring NO2, O3, NO, PM10, PM2.5, PM1, CO, ambient temperature, and relative humidity. Results demonstrated that the interpretation of hourly pollutant patterns, in combination with self-organising maps (SOMs), enabled the interpretation of probable emission sources (e.g., vehicular traffic) and of atmospheric processes (e.g., local vs. regional O formation). The ratios between PM size fractions provided insights into potential emission sources (e.g., local dust re-suspension) which may help design mitigation strategies. The high resolution of the data facilitated identifying optimal periods of the day and year for scheduling athletic trainings and/or competitions. Provided that the necessary data quality checks are applied, sensors can support stadium operators in providing athlete communities with recommendations to minimise exposure and provide guidance for event scheduling.

Predicting intraurban airborne PM1.0-trace elements in a port city: Land use regression by ordinary least squares and a machine learning algorithm

Airborne particulate matter (PM) has been associated with cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality, and there is some evidence that spatially varying metals found in PM may contribute to adverse health effects. We developed spatially refined models for PM trace elements using ordinary least squares land use regression (OLS-LUR) and machine leaning random forest land-use regression (RF-LUR). Two-week integrated measurements of PM_1.0 (median aerodiameter < 1.0 μm) were collected at 50 sampling sites during fall (2010), winter (2011), and summer (2011) in the Halifax Regional Municipality, Nova Scotia, Canada. PM_1.0 filters were analyzed for metals and trace elements using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. OLS- and RF-LUR models were developed for approximately 30 PM_1.0 trace elements in each season. Model predictors included industrial, commercial, and institutional/ government/ military land use, roadways, shipping, other transportation sources, and wind rose information. RF generated more accurate models than OLS for most trace elements based on 5-fold cross validation. On average, summer models had the highest cross validation R² (OLS-LUR = 0.40, RF-LUR = 0.46), while fall had the lowest (OLS-LUR = 0.27, RF-LUR = 0.31). Many OLS-LUR models displayed overprediction in the final exposure surface. In contrast, RF-LUR models did not exhibit overpredictions. Taking overpredictions and cross validation performances into account, OLS-LUR performed better than RF-LUR in roughly 20% of the seasonal trace element models. RF-LUR models provided more interpretable predictors in most cases. Seasonal predictors varied, likely due to differences in seasonal distribution of trace elements related to source activity, and meteorology.

Ultrafine particles, particle components and lung function at age 16 years: The PIAMA birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

Particulate matter (PM) air pollution exposure has been linked to lung function in adolescents, but little is known about the relevance of specific PM components and ultrafine particles (UFP).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the associations of long-term exposure to PM elemental composition and UFP with lung function at age 16 years.

METHODS

For 706 participants of a prospective Dutch birth cohort, we assessed associations of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) and forced vital capacity (FVC) at age 16 with average exposure to eight elemental components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium and zinc) in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, as well as UFP during the preceding years (age 13-16 years) estimated by land-use regression models. After assessing associations for each pollutant individually using linear regression models with adjustment for potential confounders, independence of associations with different pollutants was assessed in two-pollutant models with PM mass and NO₂, for which associations with lung function have been reported previously.

RESULTS

We observed that for most PM elemental components higher exposure was associated with lower FEV₁, especially PM₁₀ sulfur [e.g. adjusted difference -2.23% (95% confidence interval (CI) -3.70 to -0.74%) per interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM₁₀ sulfur]. The association with PM₁₀ sulfur remained after adjusting for PM₁₀ mass. Negative associations of exposure to UFP with both FEV₁ and FVC were observed [-1.06% (95% CI: -2.08 to -0.03%) and -0.65% (95% CI: -1.53 to 0.23%), respectively per IQR increase in UFP], but did not persist in two-pollutant models with NO₂ or PM_2.5.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to sulfur in PM₁₀ may result in lower FEV₁ at age 16. There is no evidence for an independent effect of UFP exposure.

Development of season-dependent land use regression models to estimate BC and PM1 exposure

Reliable estimation of exposure to black carbon (BC) and sub-micrometer particles (PM₁) within a city is challenging because of limited monitoring data as well as the lack of models suitable for assessing the intra-urban environment. In this study, to estimate exposure levels in the inner-city area, we developed land use regression (LUR) models for BC and PM₁ based on specially designed mobile monitoring surveys conducted in 2019 and 2020 for three seasons. The daytime and nighttime LUR models were developed separately to capture additional details on the variation in pollutants. The results of mobile monitoring indicated similar temporal variation characteristics of BC and PM₁. The mean concentrations of pollutants were higher in winter (BC: 4.72 μg/m³; PM₁: 56.97 μg/m³) than in fall (BC: 3.74 μg/m³; PM₁: 33.29 μg/m³) and summer (BC: 2.77 μg/m³; PM₁: 27.04 μg/m³). For both BC and PM₁, higher nighttime concentrations were found in winter and fall, whereas higher daytime concentrations were observed in the summer. A supervised forward stepwise regression method was used to select the predictors for the LUR models. The adjusted R² of the LUR models for BC and PM₁ ranged from 0.39 to 0.66 and 0.45 to 0.80, respectively. Traffic-related predictors were incorporated into all the models for BC. In contrast, more meteorology-related predictors were incorporated into the PM₁ models. The concentration surface based on the LUR models was mapped at a spatial resolution of 100 m, and significant seasonal and diurnal trends were observed. PM₁ was dominated by seasonal variations, whereas BC showed more spatial variation. In conclusion, the development of season-dependent diurnal LUR models based on mobile monitoring could provide a methodology for the estimation of exposure and screening of influencing factors of BC and PM₁ in typical inner-city environments, and support pollution management.

Developing the building blocks to elucidate the impact of the urban exposome on cardiometabolic-pulmonary disease: The EU EXPANSE project

By 2030, more than 80% of Europe's population will live in an urban environment. The urban exposome, consisting of factors such as where we live and work, where and what we eat, our social network, and what chemical and physical hazards we are exposed to, provides important targets to improve population health. The EXPANSE (EXposome Powered tools for healthy living in urbAN SEttings) project will study the impact of the urban exposome on the major contributors to Europe's burden of disease: Cardio-Metabolic and Pulmonary Disease. EXPANSE will address one of the most pertinent questions for urban planners, policy makers, and European citizens: "How to maximize one's health in a modern urban environment?" EXPANSE will take the next step in exposome research by (1) bringing together exposome and health data of more than 55 million adult Europeans and OMICS information for more than 2 million Europeans; (2) perform personalized exposome assessment for 5,000 individuals in five urban regions; (3) applying ultra-high-resolution mass-spectrometry to screen for chemicals in 10,000 blood samples; (4) evaluating the evolution of the exposome and health through the life course; and (5) evaluating the impact of changes in the urban exposome on the burden of cardiometabolic and pulmonary disease. EXPANSE will translate its insights and innovations into research and dissemination tools that will be openly accessible via the EXPANSE toolbox. By applying innovative ethics-by-design throughout the project, the social and ethical acceptability of these tools will be safeguarded. EXPANSE is part of the European Human Exposome Network.