Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models

The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis

BACKGROUND

Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals.

METHODS

We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases.

RESULTS

We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease.

Visceral leishmaniasis in the COVID-19 pandemic era

Visceral l eishmaniasis (VL), also known as kala-azar, had once been targeted for elimination in 2020, which now has been shifted to 2030. The year 2020 was also the year in which the world was gripped by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This review sheds light on the impact of COVID-19 on VL elimination programmes and the increasing incidences of COVID-19/VL cases. Lockdowns were imposed worldwide that led to the suspension of surveys, active case finding and mass drug administration, which are important activities to manage neglected tropical diseases. Healthcare machinery was redirected to control the pandemic and acute resource shortages were seen. Budget cuts from funding agencies and donors also came as a severe blow. Priority changes for manufacturers of drugs and diagnostic kits have also exacerbated the situation. Cases where patients were co-infected with VL and COVID-19 were reported across various settings and in people of various age groups, posing unprecedented challenges in diagnosis and treatment. Concerted efforts from all stakeholders are required to understand and deal with the impact that this pandemic has had on VL.

Challenges of using modelling evidence in the visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme in India

As India comes closer to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, surveillance efforts and elimination targets must be continuously revised and strengthened. Mathematical modelling is a compelling research discipline for informing policy and programme design in its capacity to project incidence across space and time, the likelihood of achieving benchmarks, and the impact of different interventions. To gauge the extent to which modelling informs policy in India, this qualitative analysis explores how and whether policy makers understand, value, and reference recently produced VL modelling research. Sixteen semi-structured interviews were carried out with both users- and producers- of VL modelling research, guided by a knowledge utilisation framework grounded in knowledge translation theory. Participants reported that barriers to knowledge utilisation include 1) scepticism that models accurately reflect transmission dynamics, 2) failure of modellers to apply their analyses to specific programme operations, and 3) lack of accountability in the process of translating knowledge to policy. Political trust and support are needed to translate knowledge into programme activities, and employment of a communication intermediary may be a necessary approach to improve this process.

Visceral leishmaniasis elimination in India: progress and the road ahead

INTRODUCTION

As of 2021, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination program has met with success in reducing the rate of VL to target levels in many locales, but there is persistence of low-level disease and sporadic outbreaks, sometimes in new locations. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify knowledge gaps and factors that impede total VL elimination.

AREA COVERED

We reviewed the progress and current status of VL elimination program. We discuss the knowledge gaps influencing the success of elimination program and strategies to be required to ensure VL elimination as a public health problem is achieved and sustained.

EXPERT OPINION

VL elimination is considered technically possible and operationally feasible owing to focal nature of transmission, absence of an animal reservoir, single vector, availability of an effective diagnostic test, use of a single dose of liposomal amphotericin B along with a strong political commitment. Substantial progress has been made in the reduction of VL incidence rates in the country. However, there are many challenges remain that need to be addressed if the elimination goal is to be reached and sustained. These are increasing relapse, outbreaks in new foci and increasing number of PKDL and HIV-VL co-infections.

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices among HIV/Leishmaniasis Co-Infected Patients in Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a serious public health concern in the Indian state of Bihar, which has been exacerbated by an increasing HIV/AIDS incidence that has resulted in poor clinical outcomes. So far, there has been no investigation into the knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) of people who have been subjected to hospital-based supervision for VL or HIV/VL co-infection. This study assessed the KAP toward VL infection among 210 VL-infected patients (126 participants with VL and 84 participants with HIV/VL) using a pretested standard questionnaire. The findings are summarized descriptively and KAP scores are classified dichotomously (good/poor). Multivariable logistic regression and bivariate correlation were used in the analysis. The study showed that both VL-infected and co-infected patients exhibited similar deficits in KAP scores toward VL. The HIV/VL participants who had a personal or family history of VL were more likely to have appropriate awareness of and preventive practices toward VL. The independent predictors of attitude index in HIV/VL participants were education, VL family history, and marital status. There was a weak but significant positive correlation between knowledge and practice (rs = 0.321, p<0.001), and attitude and practice (rs = 0.294, p<0.001), while knowledge was strongly correlated with attitude (rs = 0.634, p<0.001). Based on the study findings, it is recommended that treatment programs in Bihar should concentrate on strengthening KAP among VL and HIV/VL co-infected patients to prevent reinfection-related complications. Behavior change communication intervention is ideal for tackling this problem. This proposal entails building a comprehensive public health program in endemic regions.

Antibody and Antigen Prevalence as Indicators of Ongoing Transmission or Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Modeling Study

Background

Control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent has been highly successful. Control efforts such as indoor residual spraying and active case detection will be scaled down or even halted over the coming years. We explored how after scale-down, potential recurrence of VL cases may be predicted based on population-based surveys of antibody or antigenemia prevalence.

Methods

Using a stochastic age-structured transmission model of VL, we predicted trends in case incidence and biomarker prevalence over time after scaling down control efforts when the target of 3 successive years without VL cases has been achieved. Next, we correlated biomarker prevalence with the occurrence of new VL cases within 10 years of scale-down.

Results

Occurrence of at least 1 new VL case in a population of 10 000 was highly correlated with the seroprevalence and antigenemia prevalence at the moment of scale-down, or 1 or 2 years afterward. Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that biomarker prevalence in adults provided the most predictive information, and seroprevalence was a more informative predictor of new VL cases than antigenemia prevalence. Thresholds for biomarker prevalence to predict occurrence of new VL cases with high certainty were robust to variation in precontrol endemicity.

Conclusions

The risk of recrudescence of VL after scaling down control efforts can be monitored and mitigated by means of population-based surveys. Our findings highlight that rapid point-of-care diagnostic tools to assess (preferably) seroprevalence or (otherwise) antigenemia in the general population could be a key ingredient of sustainable VL control.

Mathematical modelling of the use of insecticide-treated nets for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease caused by a parasite Leishmania donovani and spread by female sand flies Phlebotomus argentipes. There is conflicting evidence regarding the role of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) on the prevention of VL. Numerous studies demonstrated the effectiveness of ITNs. However, KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India did not support those findings. The purpose of this paper is to gain insight into the situation by mathematical modelling. We expand a mathematical model of VL transmission based on the KalaNet trial and incorporate the use of ITNs explicitly into the model. One of the major contributions of this work is that we calibrate the model based on the available epidemiological data, generally independent of the KalaNet trial. We validate the model on data collected during the KalaNet trial. We conclude that in order to eliminate VL, the ITN usage would have to stay above 96%. This is higher than the 91% ITNs use at the end of the trial which may explain why the trial did not show a positive effect from ITNs. At the same time, our model indicates that asymptomatic individuals play a crucial role in VL transmission.

Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related programme interruptions on visceral leishmaniasis in India

Background

In March 2020, India declared a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019. As a result, control efforts against visceral leishmaniasis (VL) were interrupted.

Methods

Using an established age-structured deterministic VL transmission model, we predicted the impact of a 6- to 24-month programme interruption on the timeline towards achieving the VL elimination target as well as on the increase of VL cases. We also explored the potential impact of a mitigation strategy after the interruption.

Results

Delays towards the elimination target are estimated to range between 0 and 9 y. Highly endemic settings where control efforts have been ongoing for 5–8 y are most affected by an interruption, for which we identified a mitigation strategy to be most relevant. However, more importantly, all settings can expect an increase in the number of VL cases. This increase is substantial even for settings with a limited expected delay in achieving the elimination target.

Conclusions

Besides implementing mitigation strategies, it is of great importance to try and keep the duration of the interruption as short as possible to prevent new individuals from becoming infected with VL and continue the efforts towards VL elimination as a public health problem in India.

Towards a Sustainable Vector-Control Strategy in the Post Kala-Azar Elimination Era

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a potentially deadly parasitic disease. In the Indian sub-continent, VL is caused by Leishmania donovani and transmitted via the bite of an infected Phlebotomus argentipes female sand fly, the only competent vector species in the region. The highest disease burden is in the northern part of the Indian sub-continent, especially in the state of Bihar. India, Bangladesh, and Nepal embarked on an initiative, coordinated by World Health Organization, to eliminate VL as a public health problem by the year 2020. The main goal is to reduce VL incidence below one case per 10,000 people through early case-detection, prompt diagnosis and treatment, and reduction of transmission using vector control measures. Indoor residual spraying, a major pillar of the elimination program, is the only vector control strategy used by the government of India. Though India is close to its VL elimination target, important aspects of vector bionomics and sand fly transmission dynamics are yet to be determined. To achieve sustained elimination and to prevent a resurgence of VL, knowledge gaps in vector biology and behavior, and the constraints they may pose to current vector control methods, need to be addressed. Herein, we discuss the successes and failures of previous and current vector-control strategies implemented to combat kala-azar in Bihar, India, and identify gaps in our understanding of vector transmission towards development of innovative tools to ensure sustained vector control in the post-elimination period.

Impact of Changes in Detection Effort on Control of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent

Background

Control of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent relies on prompt detection and treatment of symptomatic cases. Detection efforts influence the observed VL incidence and how well it reflects the underlying true incidence. As control targets are defined in terms of observed cases, there is an urgent need to understand how changes in detection delay and population coverage of improved detection affect VL control.

Methods

Using a mathematical model for transmission and control of VL, we predict the impact of reduced detection delays and/or increased population coverage of the detection programs on observed and true VL incidence and mortality.

Results

Improved case detection, either by higher coverage or reduced detection delay, causes an initial rise in observed VL incidence before a reduction. Relaxation of improved detection may lead to an apparent temporary (1 year) reduction in VL incidence, but comes with a high risk of resurging infection levels. Duration of symptoms in detected cases shows an unequivocal association with detection effort.

Conclusions

VL incidence on its own is not a reliable indicator of the performance of case detection programs. Duration of symptoms in detected cases can be used as an additional marker of the performance of case detection programs.

First Evidence from Sri Lanka for Subphenotypic Diversity within L. donovani-Induced Classical Cutaneous Leishmaniasis

Sri Lanka reports a large focus of Leishmania donovani-induced cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) with CL as the main clinical entity. Two independent, long existed, and clinicoepidemiologically different transmission foci in the northern region (NR) and southern region (SR) were recently reported. Current project is an extension to this previous study. Clinical diversity within a profile of classical cutaneous leishmaniasis (CCL) in a focus of L. donovani-induced CL is described for the first time. Patients with laboratory confirmed CCL (n = 550) from NF and SF were evaluated. Lesions in both foci were found to have all classical developmental stages (small and large nodules, ulcerating nodules, and ulcers) and other identified changes (multiplication, ulceration, and enlargement). Main difference was in the proportions of lesions progressing in to each different stages, proportions of lesion undergoing the main changes, and in timing of these changes during the course of a lesion. Northern focus reported a smaller proportion of lesions showing enlargement and ulceration, and a longer period of time was also required for these changes when compared to same in southern focus. In northern focus, most lesions remained small and nonulcerating and showed a higher tendency to multiply while most lesions reported in southern focus enlarged and ulcerated rapidly and remained single. Current study also evidenced a wider spectrum in the rate and pattern of progression of a skin lesion and high individual variation which could mask these region-based differences. Parasitic, vector-related, or a host etiology is suggested. Slow progressing nonulcerating infections in North may be the result of a well-adopted parasite strain that coevolved with its host for a long period while inducing only a minimal host response. This could be one among many reasons for previously observed silent expansion in northern focus while southern focus remained more confined and stable over time. Small nonprogressive, nondisturbing lesions can play a major role as silent parasite reservoirs in a community. In addition, the laboratory detection rate declined significantly when lesions multiplied and enlarged indicating the need for early laboratory confirmation. Usefulness of identified features in clinical screening and management needs to be considered.

Xenodiagnosis to evaluate the infectiousness of humans to sandflies in an area endemic for visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India: a transmission-dynamics study

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis, also known on the Indian subcontinent as kala-azar, is a fatal form of leishmaniasis caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania donovani and transmitted by the bites of the vector sandfly Phlebotomus argentipes. To achieve and sustain elimination of visceral leishmaniasis, the transmission potential of individuals exposed to L donovani from across the infection spectrum needs to be elucidated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relative infectiousness to the sandfly vector of patients with visceral leishmaniasis or post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis, before and after treatment, and individuals with asymptomatic infection.

Methods

In this prospective xenodiagnosis study done in Muzaffarpur district of Bihar, India, we included patients with clinically confirmed active visceral leishmaniasis or post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis who presented to the Kala-Azar Medical Research Center. These participants received treatment for L donovani infection. We also included asymptomatic individuals identified through a serosurvey of 17 254 people living in 26 high-transmission clusters. Eligible participants were aged 12–64 years, were HIV negative, and had clinically or serologically confirmed L donovani infection. During xenodiagnosis, the forearms or lower legs of participants were exposed to 30–35 female P argentipes sandflies for 30 min. Blood-engorged flies were held in an environmental cabinet at 28°C and 85% humidity for 60–72 h, after which flies were dissected and evaluated for L donovani infection by microscopy and quantitative PCR (qPCR). The primary endpoint was the proportion of participants with visceral leishmaniasis or post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis, before and after treatment, as well as asymptomatic individuals, who were infectious to sandflies, with a participant considered infectious if promastigotes were observed in one or more individual flies by microscopy, or if one or more of the pools of flies tested positive by qPCR.

Findings

Between July 12, 2016, and March 19, 2019, we recruited 287 individuals, including 77 with active visceral leishmaniasis, 26 with post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis, and 184 with asymptomatic infection. Of the patients with active visceral leishmaniasis, 42 (55%) were deemed infectious to sandflies by microscopy and 60 (78%) by qPCR before treatment. No patient with visceral leishmaniasis was found to be infectious by microscopy at 30 days after treatment, although six (8%) were still positive by qPCR. Before treatment, 11 (42%) of 26 patients with post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis were deemed infectious to sandflies by microscopy and 23 (88%) by qPCR. Of 23 patients who were available for xenodiagnosis after treatment, one remained infectious to flies by qPCR on the pooled flies, but none remained positive by microscopy. None of the 184 asymptomatic participants were infectious to sandflies.

Interpretation

These findings confirm that patients with active visceral leishmaniasis and patients with post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis can transmit L donovani to the sandfly vector and suggest that early diagnosis and treatment could effectively remove these individuals as infection reservoirs. An important role for asymptomatic individuals in the maintenance of the transmission cycle is not supported by these data.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of different Leishmania reservoirs on sand fly transmission: Perspectives from xenodiagnosis and other one health observations

Leishmania has biologically adapted to specific phlebotomine sand flies through long co-evolution. The ability of Leishmania spp. to bind to sand fly midgut allows each Leishmania species to propagate and differentiate into infectious promastigotes and be transmitted. Sand fly feeding upon a mammalian host is the first step towards being infected and a host of Leishmania. Once deposited into the skin, host susceptibility to infection vs. ability to mount a sterilizing immune response predicts which hosts could be reservoirs of different Leishmania spp. Materials, in addition to parasites, are expelled during sand fly during feeding, including salivary antigens and other factors that promote local inflammatory responses. These factors aid visceralization of infection increasing the likelihood that systemic infection is established. Any environmental factor that increases sand fly biting of a particular host increases that host's role in Leishmania transmission. First descriptions of reservoir species were based on association with local human disease and ability to observe infected leukocytes on cytology. This approach was one pathogen for one reservoir host. Advances in sensitive molecular tools greatly increased the breadth of mammals found to host Leishmania infection. Visceralizing species of Leishmania, particularly L. infantum, are now known to have multiple mammalian hosts. L. donovani, long been described as an anthroponotic parasite, was recently identified through molecular and serologic surveys to have additional mammalian hosts. The epidemiological role of these animals as a source of parasites to additional hosts via vector transmission is not known. Current evidence suggests that dogs and other domestic animals either control infection or do not have sufficient skin parasitemia to be a source of L. donovani to P. argentipes. Further xenodiagnosis and characterization of skin parasitemia in these different hosts is required to more broadly understand which Leishmania spp. hosts can be a source of parasites to sand flies and which ones are dead-end hosts.

Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis

Methods for analyzing individual-level geo-located disease data have existed for some time, but have rarely been used to analyze endemic human diseases. Here we apply such methods to nearly a decade’s worth of uniquely detailed epidemiological data on incidence of the deadly vector-borne disease visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and its secondary condition, post–kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), to quantify the spread of infection around cases in space and time by inferring who infected whom, and estimate the relative contribution of different infection states to transmission. Our findings highlight the key role long diagnosis delays and PKDL play in maintaining VL transmission. This detailed characterization of the spatiotemporal transmission of VL will help inform targeting of interventions around VL and PKDL cases.

Understanding of spatiotemporal transmission of infectious diseases has improved significantly in recent years. Advances in Bayesian inference methods for individual-level geo-located epidemiological data have enabled reconstruction of transmission trees and quantification of disease spread in space and time, while accounting for uncertainty in missing data. However, these methods have rarely been applied to endemic diseases or ones in which asymptomatic infection plays a role, for which additional estimation methods are required. Here, we develop such methods to analyze longitudinal incidence data on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and its sequela, post–kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), in a highly endemic community in Bangladesh. Incorporating recent data on VL and PKDL infectiousness, we show that while VL cases drive transmission when incidence is high, the contribution of PKDL increases significantly as VL incidence declines (reaching 55% in this setting). Transmission is highly focal: 85% of mean distances from inferred infectors to their secondary VL cases were <300 m, and estimated average times from infector onset to secondary case infection were <4 mo for 88% of VL infectors, but up to 2.9 y for PKDL infectors. Estimated numbers of secondary cases per VL and PKDL case varied from 0 to 6 and were strongly correlated with the infector’s duration of symptoms. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prevention of PKDL could have reduced overall VL incidence by up to 25%. These results highlight the need for prompt detection and treatment of PKDL to achieve VL elimination in the Indian subcontinent and provide quantitative estimates to guide spatiotemporally targeted interventions against VL.

The potential impact of human visceral leishmaniasis vaccines on population incidence

Human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) vaccines are currently under development and there is a need to understand their potential impact on population wide VL incidence. We implement four characteristics from different human VL vaccine candidates into two published VL transmission model variants to estimate the potential impact of these vaccine characteristics on population-wide anthroponotic VL incidence on the Indian subcontinent (ISC). The vaccines that are simulated in this study 1) reduce the infectiousness of infected individuals towards sand flies, 2) reduce risk of developing symptoms after infection, 3) reduce the risk of developing post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), or 4) lead to the development of transient immunity. We also compare and combine a vaccine strategy with current interventions to identify their potential role in elimination of VL as a public health problem. We show that the first two simulated vaccine characteristics can greatly reduce VL incidence. For these vaccines, an approximate 60% vaccine efficacy would lead to achieving the ISC elimination target (<1 VL case per 10,000 population per year) within 10 years’ time in a moderately endemic setting when vaccinating 100% of the population. Vaccinating VL cases to prevent the development of PKDL is a promising tool to sustain the low incidence elimination target after regular interventions are halted. Vaccines triggering the development of transient immunity protecting against infection lead to the biggest reduction in VL incidence, but booster doses are required to achieve perduring impact. Even though vaccines are not yet available for implementation, their development should be pursued as their potential impact on transmission can be substantial, both in decreasing incidence at the population level as well as in sustaining the ISC elimination target when other interventions are halted.

Vaccines for human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) are currently under development. In this study, we simulate VL transmission dynamics using mathematical models to explore the potential impact of vaccines on population-wide incidence. We show that some vaccines have high potential to reduce VL incidence, namely those that reduce the infectiousness of infected individuals to sand flies and those that reduce the chance of developing symptoms once infected. The effect of vaccines that lead to protection from infection is potentially the greatest, but depending on the duration of immunity, individuals would require booster doses to guarantee lifelong impact. Vaccines that prevent the development of post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis are a promising tool to sustain low VL incidence and prevent recrudescence of infection when regular interventions are halted. Our results strongly support the continued development of VL vaccines, as their potential impact on population incidence can be substantial.

A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India

BACKGROUND

The elimination programme for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India has seen great progress, with total cases decreasing by over 80% since 2010 and many blocks now reporting zero cases from year to year. Prompt diagnosis and treatment is critical to continue progress and avoid epidemics in the increasingly susceptible population. Short-term forecasts could be used to highlight anomalies in incidence and support health service logistics. The model which best fits the data is not necessarily most useful for prediction, yet little empirical work has been done to investigate the balance between fit and predictive performance.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed statistical models of monthly VL case counts at block level. By evaluating a set of randomly-generated models, we found that fit and one-month-ahead prediction were strongly correlated and that rolling updates to model parameters as data accrued were not crucial for accurate prediction. The final model incorporated auto-regression over four months, spatial correlation between neighbouring blocks, and seasonality. Ninety-four percent of 10-90% prediction intervals from this model captured the observed count during a 24-month test period. Comparison of one-, three- and four-month-ahead predictions from the final model fit demonstrated that a longer time horizon yielded only a small sacrifice in predictive power for the vast majority of blocks.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The model developed is informed by routinely-collected surveillance data as it accumulates, and predictions are sufficiently accurate and precise to be useful. Such forecasts could, for example, be used to guide stock requirements for rapid diagnostic tests and drugs. More comprehensive data on factors thought to influence geographic variation in VL burden could be incorporated, and might better explain the heterogeneity between blocks and improve uniformity of predictive performance. Integration of the approach in the management of the VL programme would be an important step to ensuring continued successful control.

Policy Recommendations From Transmission Modeling for the Elimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target.

Methods

This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models.

Results

The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages.

Conclusions

The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks.

Insights from mathematical modelling and quantitative analysis on the proposed WHO 2030 targets for visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) caused by Leishmania protozoa that are transmitted by female sand flies. On the Indian subcontinent (ISC), VL is targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) for elimination as a public health problem by 2020, which is defined as <1 VL case (new and relapse) per 10,000 population at district level in Nepal and sub-district level in Bangladesh and India. WHO is currently in the process of formulating 2030 targets, asking whether to maintain the 2020 target or to modify it, while adding a target of zero mortality among detected cases. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed various mathematical VL transmission models to gain insight into the transmission dynamics of VL, identify the main knowledge gaps, and predict the feasibility of achieving and sustaining the targets by simulating the impact of varying intervention strategies. According to the models, the current target is feasible at the appropriate district/sub-district level in settings with medium VL endemicities (up to 5 reported VL cases per 10,000 population per year) prior to the start of the interventions. However, in settings with higher pre-control endemicities, additional efforts may be required. We also highlight the risk that those with post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) may pose to reaching and sustaining the VL targets, and therefore advocate adding control of PKDL cases to the new 2030 targets. Spatial analyses revealed that local hotspots with high VL incidence remain. We warn that the current target provides a perverse incentive to not detect/report cases as the target is approached, posing a risk for truly achieving elimination as a public health problem although this is taken into consideration by the WHO procedures for validation. Ongoing modelling work focuses on the risk of recrudescence when interventions are relaxed after the elimination target has been achieved.

Integrating Case Detection of Visceral Leishmaniasis and Other Febrile Illness with Vector Control in the Post-Elimination Phase in Nepal

Nepal has completed the attack phase of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination and now needs active case detection (ACD) and vector control methods that are suitable to the consolidation and maintenance phases. We evaluated different ACD approaches and vector control methods in Saptari district. We assessed 1) mobile teams deployed in villages with VL cases in 2015 to conduct combined camps for fever and skin lesions to detect VL/PKDL (post–kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis) and other infections; 2) an incentive approach by trained female community health volunteers (FCHVs) in villages with no VL cases in 2015. Both were followed by house-to-house visits. For vector control, four villages were randomly allocated to insecticide impregnation of bednets, insecticide wall painting, indoor residual spraying (IRS), and control. Sandfly density (by CDC light traps, The John W. Hock Company, USA) and mortality (World Health Organization cone bioassay) were assessed in randomly selected households. One VL, three tuberculosis, one leprosy, and one malaria cases were identified among 395 febrile cases attending the camps. Post-camp house-to-house screening involving 7,211 households identified 679 chronic fever and 461 skin lesion cases but no additional VL/PKDL. No VL/PKDL case was found by FCHVs. The point prevalence of chronic fever in camp and FCHV villages was 242 and 2 per 10,000 populations, respectively. Indoor residual spraying and bednet impregnation were effective for 1 month versus 12 months with insecticidal wall paint. Twelve-month sandfly mortality was 23%, 26%, and 80%, respectively, on IRS, bednet impregnation, and insecticide wall painting. In Nepal, fever camps and insecticidal wall paint prove to be alternative, sustainable strategies in the VL post-elimination program.

Relationship of Serum Antileishmanial Antibody With Development of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Post-kala-azar Dermal Leishmaniasis and Visceral Leishmaniasis Relapse

Introduction

To sustain the achievement of kala-azar elimination program (KEP), early detection and treatment of the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases and associated modalities such as treatment failure (TF), relapse VL (RVL), and Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is the cornerstone. A predictive biomarker for VL development and related complications could also play a crucial role in curtailing disease incidence and transmission. Investigations to find a biomarker with prospective capabilities are, however, scarce. Using samples and known clinical outcomes generated within two previous longitudinal cohort studies, we aimed to determine if fluctuations in serum anti-rK39 antibody levels could provide such predictive value.

Materials and Methods

Serum samples collected at four different time points (Baseline, 12, 18, and 24 months) from 16 patients who had developed VL within the monitoring period and 15 of their asymptomatic healthy controls counterparts were investigated. To investigate potential prediction of VL related complications, serum samples of 32 PKDL, 10 RVL, 07 TF, and 38 cured VL from a single dose AmBisome trial were analyzed. Of this second panel, all patients were monitored for 5 years and sera were collected at four time points (Baseline then 1, 6, and 12 months after treatment). The level of anti-rK39 antibodies in archived samples was measured by a semi-quantitative ELISA.

Results

The mean antibody level was significantly higher in VL patients compared to their asymptomatic healthy counterparts at each time point. Likewise, we observed a trend toward elevations in antibody levels for PKDL, RVL, TF relative to the reducing levels observed in cured VL. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis found a promising predictive power of rK39 antibody levels to reveal progression from asymptomatic Leishmania donovani infection stage to VL, defined as 87.5% sensitive and 95% specific. Following treatment, rk39 antibody notably showed 100% sensitivity and 95% specificity in predicting TF.

Conclusion

Our data indicate that the relative quantity of serum anti-rK39 antibody has promise within either a predictive or prognostic algorithm for VL and VL-related modalities. These could enable VL control programs to implement more effective measures to eliminate the disease. Further research is, however, imperative to standardize the rK39 antibody ELISA between sites prior to broader use.

Assessing the combined effects of household type and insecticide effectiveness for kala-azar vector control using indoor residual spraying: a case study from North Bihar, India

BACKGROUND

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is the mainstay for vector control intervention of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India. Little is known on the control effects of IRS on different household types. Here, we assessed if IRS with insecticides has an equal residual and interventional effect on all household types in a village. We also developed a combined spatial-risk map and a sand fly, Phlebotomus argentipes density analytical model based on household characteristics, insecticide susceptibility and IRS-status to explore the spatio-temporal distributions of the vector at a micro-scale level.

METHODS

This study was carried out in two villages of Mahnar block in Vaishali district, Bihar. IRS using two insecticides [dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT 50%) and synthetic pyrethroid (SP 5%)] was evaluated for VL-vector (P. argentipes) control. Temporal residual efficacy of the insecticides on different wall-surface types was evaluated using the cone-bioassay technique according to WHO guidelines. Insecticide susceptibility of local P. argentipes was explored using the tube-bioassay method. Pre- and post-IRS sand fly densities were monitored in human dwellings and animal shelters using Centers for Disease Control light-traps installed between 18:00-6:00 h. A best-fit model for sand fly density analysis was developed using multiple logistic regression analysis. Geographical information system based spatial analysis techniques were employed to map the household type distribution of insecticide susceptibility of the vector, and IRS-status of the households to interpret the spatio-temporal distributions of P. argentipes.

RESULTS

Phlebotomus argentipes was highly susceptible to SP (100%) but showed high resistance to DDT with a 49.1% mortality rate. SP-IRS has been reported as having better community acceptance than DDT-IRS in all household types. Residual efficacies were varied between wall-surfaces; both insecticides failed to achieve the duration of IRS effectiveness recommended by the WHO. Reduction in P. argentipes counts due to SP-IRS was higher than DDT-IRS between household groups (i.e. sprayed and sentinel), in all intervals post-IRS. Combined spatial risk-maps revealed a better control effect of SP-IRS on sand flies than DDT-IRS in all household types risk-zones. The multilevel logistic regression analysis explored five risk-factors that were strongly associated with the density of P. argentipes.

CONCLUSIONS

The results contribute to furthering current understanding of IRS-practices for control of visceral leishmaniasis in endemic Bihar, which may help in future actions for improvements.

First Evidence for Two Independent and Different Leishmaniasis Transmission Foci in Sri Lanka: Recent Introduction or Long-Term Existence?

Cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by a genetic variant of L. donovani is being reported from Sri Lanka since year 2001. Patients presented from different geographical locations (600 patients from North or South and a minority of cases from other foci, 2001-2013) were studied. Analysis revealed two different sociodemographic and clinical profiles of leishmaniasis in Northern and Southern Sri Lanka. Also, the same different profiles were present in these foci since the onset of the recent outbreak and had independently propagated within each focus over the time. A profile of 14 parameters identified in the Northern focus was further examined with regard to other locations. Northwestern (10/14) and Central parts (9/14) of the island were more similar to Northern focus (14/14). Infection would have originated in one focus and spread to other 2 in Northern Sri Lanka. Southern focus was different from and appeared older than all others (2/14). Western focus that accommodates a large transient population had a mixed picture of North and South features (4/14). Lesions in North showed a slow progression and a nonulcerative nature (128/185, 69.2%), while those in South showed a rapid progression and less nonulcerative lesions (193/415, 46.5%). Clinical analysis favoured a parasite aetiology (considerable strain differences) rather than a host aetiology (age, gender, or genetics). Both foci demonstrated a biannual seasonal variation since the onset of the epidemic. Two peaks were observed during the early and latter parts of the year. Furthermore, long-term existence and recent spatiotemporal expansion and detection of leishmaniasis in this country rather than a recent introduction and establishment were indicated by these findings. Vigorous antimalarial activities that existed in Sri Lanka until few decades ago, lack of professional awareness, and more recent military activities that brought human population in close contact with a sylvatic cycle would have played a role in silent propagation of Leishmania parasites and subsequent increment in human cases, respectively, in this country.

Post-Kala-Azar Dermal Leishmaniasis as a Reservoir for Visceral Leishmaniasis Transmission

Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a parasitic skin infection which can occur after visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Recent xenodiagnosis studies (Mondal et al., Clin. Infect. Dis., 2018) have uncovered the infectiousness of PKDL. When including this in a transmission model, PKDL cases appear as an important reservoir of infection, likely frustrating the VL elimination efforts on the Indian subcontinent.

"It's just a fever": Gender based barriers to care-seeking for visceral leishmaniasis in highly endemic districts of India: A qualitative study

INTRODUCTION

Diagnosis and treatment for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is considered to be delayed amongst poor, rural women in highly endemic districts of Bihar and Jharkhand. The objective of this study was to assess and understand barriers to VL diagnosis and treatment for women in endemic districts with a high burden of VL.

METHODS

The study used a stratified and purposive sample of 33 female patients with VL, 11 health staff, 11 local (unqualified) health providers and 12 groups of community elders drawn from ten districts in Bihar and four in Jharkhand with high burdens of VL. The study was conducted within an exploratory and inductive framework, using semi-structured in-depth interviews and discussions.

RESULTS

Women accessing treatment more quickly tended to move faster from treating their symptoms on their own to seeking care from local providers. Perception among female patients of the illness being not serious (owing to initially non-specific and mild symptoms), lack of money, prioritisation of household chores over their need to seek care and the absence of a male guardian to accompany them in seeking care at facilities worked together to drive these choices. Most patients and their families did not suspect VL as the cause for their non-specific symptoms, but when VL was suspected, treatment shopping ended. Lack of prioritization of women's health issues appears to be a pervasive underlying factor. Public health facilities were not an early treatment choice for the majority, but where it was, the diagnosis of VL was often not considered when presenting with under 2 weeks of symptoms, nor were appropriate follow-up plans instituted.

CONCLUSION

The insidious presentation of VL and the low prioritisation of women's health need to be jointly addressed through messages that emphasise the importance of early diagnosis and treatment of disease, which is low-cost in time and money when managed in public health facilities. Clear messages that project prioritising women's care-seeking over household work as a smart choice and the need for rallying male support are needed. Additionally, efforts to reduce missed opportunities through early case suspicion and engaging private providers to better counsel women with suspected VL could close critical gaps in the continuum of care.

Cinnamomum cassia exhibits antileishmanial activity against Leishmania donovani infection in vitro and in vivo

BACKGROUND

There is a pressing need for drug discovery against visceral leishmaniasis, a life-threatening protozoal infection, as the available chemotherapy is antiquated and not bereft of side effects. Plants as alternate drug resources has rewarded mankind in the past and aimed in this direction, we investigated the antileishmanial potential of Cinnamomum cassia.

METHODOLOGY

Dichloromethane, ethanolic and aqueous fractions of C. cassia bark, prepared by sequential extraction, were appraised for their anti-promastigote activity along with apoptosis-inducing potential. The most potent, C. cassia dichloromethane fraction (CBD) was evaluated for anti-amastigote efficacy in infected macrophages and nitric oxide (NO) production studied. The in vivo antileishmanial efficacy was assessed in L. donovani infected BALB/c mice and hamsters and various correlates of host protective immunity ascertained. Toxicity profile of CBD was investigated in vitro against peritoneal macrophages and in vivo via alterations in liver and kidney functions. The plant secondary metabolites present in CBD were identified by gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy (GC-MS).

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

CBD displayed significant anti-promastigote activity with 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) of 33.6 μg ml-1 that was mediated via apoptosis. This was evidenced by mitochondrial membrane depolarization, increased proportion of cells in sub-G0-G1 phase, ROS production, PS externalization and DNA fragmentation (TUNEL assay). CBD also inhibited intracellular amastigote proliferation (IC50 14.06 μg ml-1) independent of NO production. The in vivo protection achieved was 80.91% (liver) and 82.92% (spleen) in mice and 75.61% (liver) and 78.93% (spleen) in hamsters indicating its profound therapeutic efficacy. CBD exhibited direct antileishmanial activity, as it did not specifically induce a T helper type (Th)-1-polarized mileu in cured hosts. This was evidenced by insignificant modulation of NO production, lymphoproliferation, DTH (delayed type hypersensitivity), serum IgG2a and IgG1 levels and production of Th2 cytokines (IL-4 and IL-10) along with restoration of pro-inflammatory Th1 cytokines (INF-γ, IL-12p70) to the normal range. CBD was devoid of any toxicity in vitro as well as in vivo. The chemical constituents, cinnamaldehyde and its derivatives present in CBD may have imparted the observed antileishmanial effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the profound antileishmanial efficacy of C. cassia bark DCM fraction and merits its further exploration as a source of safe and effective antieishmanial compounds.

Trends in Recently Emerged Leishmania donovani Induced Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, Sri Lanka, for the First 13 Years

Sri Lanka reports a large epidemic of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) caused by an atypical L. donovani while regional leishmaniasis elimination drive aims at achieving its targets in 2020. Visceralization, mucotrophism, and CL associated poor treatment response were recently reported. Long-term clinico-epidemiological trends (2001-2013) in this focus were examined for the first time. Both constant and changing features were observed. Sociodemographic patient characteristics that differ significantly from those of country profile, microchanges within CL profile, spatial expansion, constant biannual seasonal variation, and nondependency of clinical profile on age or gender were evident. Classical CL remains the main clinical entity without clinical evidence for subsequent visceralization indicating presence of parasite strain variation. These observations make a scientific platform for disease control preferably timed based on seasonal variation and highlights the importance of periodic and continued surveillance of clinic-epidemiological and other characteristics.

Age trends in asymptomatic and symptomatic Leishmania donovani infection in the Indian subcontinent: A review and analysis of data from diagnostic and epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

Age patterns in asymptomatic and symptomatic infection with Leishmania donovani, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC), are currently poorly understood. Age-stratified serology and infection incidence have been used to assess transmission levels of other diseases, which suggests that they may also be of use for monitoring and targeting control programmes to achieve elimination of VL and should be included in VL transmission dynamic models. We therefore analysed available age-stratified data on both disease incidence and prevalence of immune markers with the aim of collating the currently available data, estimating rates of infection, and informing modelling and future data collection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A systematic literature search yielded 13 infection prevalence and 7 VL incidence studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Statistical tests were performed to identify trends by age, and according to diagnostic cut-off. Simple reversible catalytic models with age-independent and age-dependent infection rates were fitted to the prevalence data to estimate infection and reversion rates, and to test different hypotheses about the origin of variation in these rates. Most of the studies showed an increase in infection prevalence with age: from ≲10% seroprevalence (<20% Leishmanin skin test (LST) positivity) for 0-10-year-olds to >10% seroprevalence (>20% LST-positivity) for 30-40-year-olds, but overall prevalence varied considerably between studies. VL incidence was lower amongst 0-5-year-olds than older age groups in most studies; most showing a peak in incidence between ages 5 and 20. The age-independent catalytic model provided the best overall fit to the infection prevalence data, but the estimated rates for the less parsimonious age-dependent model were much closer to estimates from longitudinal studies, suggesting that infection rates may increase with age.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Age patterns in asymptomatic infection prevalence and VL incidence in the ISC vary considerably with geographical location and time period. The increase in infection prevalence with age and peaked age-VL-incidence distribution may be due to lower exposure to infectious sandfly bites in young children, but also suggest that acquired immunity to the parasite increases with age. However, poor standardisation of serological tests makes it difficult to compare data from different studies and draw firm conclusions about drivers of variation in observed age patterns.

Visceral leishmaniasis: Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and drivers underlying the hotspots in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, India

BACKGROUND

Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or 'hotspots' of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007-2015.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations' threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1-5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5-86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5-14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of 'the poorest of the poor' and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination.

Validation of SYBR green I based closed tube loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay and simplified direct-blood-lysis (DBL)-LAMP assay for diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (VL)

Background

The World Health Organization has targeted elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) by 2020. Despite distinctive decline seen in the number of VL cases in ISC, there is still a quest for development of a diagnostic test which has the utility for detection of active infection and relapse cases and as a test of cure. The present study validated the sensitivity and specificity of SYBR Green I based closed tube LAMP assay reported by us for diagnosis of VL.

Methodology

The validation study was carried out at two endemic sites in India, located at Rajendra Memorial Research Institute of Medical Sciences (RMRIMS), Patna and Institute of Medical Sciences (IMS), Banaras Hindu University (BHU), Varanasi. Standard operating protocols were provided at the two sites for applying LAMP assay on confirmed VL cases. The diagnostic accuracy of LAMP assay was evaluated by Receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis. Furthermore, a simplified LAMP assay based on direct blood lysis, DBL-LAMP, was developed and verified for its diagnostic accuracy.

Principal findings

A total of 267 eligible participants were included in the study which comprised of 179 VL cases and 88 controls. Sensitivity and specificity of the LAMP assay were 98.32% (95% C.I– 95.2–99.7%) and 96.59% (95% C.I.-90.4–99.3%), respectively. ROC curve analysis depicted no significant difference between area under curve (AUC_ROC) for LAMP assay and rK39 RDT, indicative of LAMP as an excellent diagnostic test. DBL-LAMP assay, performed on 67 VL and 100 control samples, yielded a sensitivity of 93.05% (95% C.I- 84.75–97%) and specificity of 100% (95% C.I.- 96.30–100%).

Conclusions/Significance

The validated closed tube LAMP for diagnosis of VL will provide impetus to the ongoing VL elimination programme in ISC. The assay based on direct blood lysis promotes its scope for application in field settings by further reducing time and cost.

Definitive diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis(VL) by demonstration of amastigotes by microscopy is invasive and risky. Serology based diagnosis using rK39 rapid diagnostic test(RDT) has excellent sensitivity of~97% when combined with clinical symptoms but is inconclusive for detection of active infection and relapses due to persistence of anti-leishmanial antibodies. The developed SYBR Green I based closed tube LAMP assay overcomes these constraints and further, direct blood lysis (DBL)-LAMP, makes it more suitable for field application. The study involved validation of LAMP assay at two endemic sites in India, on a total of 179 VL patients confirmed by rK39 RDT and/ or microscopy and 88 controls. The assay was highly sensitive (98.32%) and specific (96.59%). Further, DBL-LAMP assay yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 93.05% and 100%, respectively. In conclusion, the study has validated the field potential of LAMP assay for diagnosis of VL which will provide momentum to ongoing VL elimination in the Indian subcontinent (ISC).

Visceral leishmaniasis elimination targets in India, strategies for preventing resurgence

INTRODUCTION

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a fatal parasitic disease caused by a parasite belonging to the Leishmania donovani complex and transmitted by infected female Phlebotomous argentipes sand flies. The VL elimination strategy in the Indian subcontinent (ISC), which has a current goal of reducing the incidence of VL to below 1/10,000 of population by the year 2020, consists of rapid detection and treatment of VL to reduce the number of human reservoirs as well as vector control using indoor residual spraying (IRS). However, as the incidence of VL declines toward the elimination goal, greater targeting of control methods will be required to ensure appropriate early action to prevent the resurgence of VL. Area covered: We discuss the current progress and challenges in the VL elimination program and strategies to be employed to ensure sustained elimination of VL. Expert commentary: The VL elimination initiative has saved many human lives; however, for VL elimination to become a reality in a sustained way, an intense effort is needed, as substantial numbers of endemic subdistricts (primary health centers (PHCs) blocks level) are yet to reach the elimination target. In addition to effective epidemiological surveillance, appropriate diagnostic and treatment services for VL at PHCs will be needed to ensure long-term sustainability and prevent reemergence of VL.

Resistance: A problem without an easy solution

Insecticide resistance can no longer be ignored if we are to retain our ability to control many insect borne diseases. We need new public health insecticides, but these must be embedded in real resistance management strategies. Calls for Integrated Vector Management will continue to fail unless the evidence for the use of different interventions is dramatically improved. The donor community will also need to be prepared for the increased cost of effective long-term vector control. This will not happen without advocacy based on solid economic evaluation, which needs to happen before the opportunity to manage resistance becomes impossible.

The role of case proximity in transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in a highly endemic village in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is characterised by a high degree of spatial clustering at all scales, and this feature remains even with successful control measures. VL is targeted for elimination as a public health problem in the Indian subcontinent by 2020, and incidence has been falling rapidly since 2011. Current control is based on early diagnosis and treatment of clinical cases, and blanket indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) in endemic villages to kill the sandfly vectors. Spatially targeting active case detection and/or IRS to higher risk areas would greatly reduce costs of control, but its effectiveness as a control strategy is unknown. The effectiveness depends on two key unknowns: how quickly transmission risk decreases with distance from a VL case and how much asymptomatically infected individuals contribute to transmission.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To estimate these key parameters, a spatiotemporal transmission model for VL was developed and fitted to geo-located epidemiological data on 2494 individuals from a highly endemic village in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. A Bayesian inference framework that could account for the unknown infection times of the VL cases, and missing symptom onset and recovery times, was developed to perform the parameter estimation. The parameter estimates obtained suggest that, in a highly endemic setting, VL risk decreases relatively quickly with distance from a case-halving within 90m-and that VL cases contribute significantly more to transmission than asymptomatic individuals.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

These results suggest that spatially-targeted interventions may be effective for limiting transmission. However, the extent to which spatial transmission patterns and the asymptomatic contribution vary with VL endemicity and over time is uncertain. In any event, interventions would need to be performed promptly and in a large radius (≥300m) around a new case to reduce transmission risk.

Current Visceral Leishmaniasis Research: A Research Review to Inspire Future Study

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), one of the deadliest parasitic diseases in the world, causes more than 50,000 human deaths each year and afflicts millions of people throughout South America, East Africa, South Asia, and Mediterranean Region. In 2015 the World Health Organization classified VL as a neglected tropical disease (NTD), prompting concentrated study of the VL epidemic using mathematical and simulation models. This paper reviews literature related to prevalence and prevention control strategies. More than thirty current research works were reviewed and classified based on VL epidemic study methods, including modeling approaches, control strategies, and simulation techniques since 2013. A summarization of these technical methods, major findings, and contributions from existing works revealed that VL epidemic research efforts must improve in the areas of validating and verifying VL mathematical models with real-world epidemic data. In addition, more dynamic disease control strategies must be explored and advanced simulation techniques must be used to predict VL pandemics.

Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling?

The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has received huge investment in recent years, leading to large reductions in morbidity. In 2012, the World Health Organization set ambitious targets for eliminating many of these diseases as a public health problem by 2020, an aspiration that was supported by donations of treatments, intervention materials, and funding committed by a broad partnership of stakeholders in the London Declaration on NTDs. Alongside these efforts, there has been an increasing role for quantitative analysis and modeling to support the achievement of these goals through evaluation of the likely impact of interventions, the factors that could undermine these achievements, and the role of new diagnostics and treatments in reducing transmission. In this special issue, we aim to summarize those insights in an accessible way. This article acts as an introduction to the special issue, outlining key concepts in NTDs and insights from modeling as we approach 2020.

Variations in visceral leishmaniasis burden, mortality and the pathway to care within Bihar, India

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem (< 1 case/10,000 people/year) in the Indian sub-continent (ISC) by 2020. Bihar State in India, which accounts for the majority of cases in the ISC, remains a major target for this elimination effort. However, there is considerable spatial, temporal and sub-population variation in occurrence of the disease and the pathway to care, which is largely unexplored and a threat to achieving the target.

METHODS

Data from 6081 suspected VL patients who reported being clinically diagnosed during 2012-2013 across eight districts in Bihar were analysed. Graphical comparisons and Chi-square tests were used to determine differences in the burden of identified cases by season, district, age and sex. Log-linear regression models were fitted to onset (of symptoms)-to-diagnosis and onset-to-treatment waiting times to estimate their associations with age, sex, district and various socio-economic factors (SEFs). Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Comparisons of VL caseloads suggested an annual cycle peaking in January-March. A 17-fold variation in the burden of identified cases across districts and under-representation of young children (0-5 years) relative to age-specific populations in Bihar were observed. Women accounted for a significantly lower proportion of the reported cases than men (41 vs 59%, P < 0.0001). Age, district of residence, house wall materials, caste, treatment cost, travelling for diagnosis and the number of treatments for symptoms before diagnosis were identified as correlates of waiting times. Mortality was associated with age, district of residence, onset-to-treatment waiting time, treatment duration, cattle ownership and cost of diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The distribution of VL in Bihar is highly heterogeneous, and reported caseloads and associated mortality vary significantly across different districts, posing different challenges to the elimination campaign. Socio-economic factors are important correlates of these differences, suggesting that elimination will require tailoring to population and sub-population circumstances.

Challenges in modeling complexity of neglected tropical diseases: a review of dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in resource limited settings

OBJECTIVES

Neglected tropical diseases (NTD), account for a large proportion of the global disease burden, and their control faces several challenges including diminishing human and financial resources for those distressed from such diseases. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the second-largest parasitic killer (after malaria) and an NTD affects poor populations and causes considerable cost to the affected individuals. Mathematical models can serve as a critical and cost-effective tool for understanding VL dynamics, however, complex array of socio-economic factors affecting its dynamics need to be identified and appropriately incorporated within a dynamical modeling framework. This study reviews literature on vector-borne diseases and collects challenges and successes related to the modeling of transmission dynamics of VL. Possible ways of creating a comprehensive mathematical model is also discussed.

METHODS

Published literature in three categories are reviewed: (i) identifying non-traditional but critical mechanisms for VL transmission in resource limited regions, (ii) mathematical models used for dynamics of Leishmaniasis and other related vector borne infectious diseases and (iii) examples of modeling that have the potential to capture identified mechanisms of VL to study its dynamics.

RESULTS

This review suggests that VL elimination have not been achieved yet because existing transmission dynamics models for VL fails to capture relevant local socio-economic risk factors. This study identifies critical risk factors of VL and distribute them in six categories (atmosphere, access, availability, awareness, adherence, and accedence). The study also suggests novel quantitative models, parts of it are borrowed from other non-neglected diseases, for incorporating these factors and using them to understand VL dynamics and evaluating control programs for achieving VL elimination in a resource-limited environment.

CONCLUSIONS

Controlling VL is expensive for local communities in endemic countries where individuals remain in the vicious cycle of disease and poverty. Smarter public investment in control programs would not only decrease the VL disease burden but will also help to alleviate poverty. However, dynamical models are necessary to evaluate intervention strategies to formulate a cost-effective optimal policy for eradication of VL.