COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria

Rural household vulnerability and COVID-19: Evidence from India

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected vulnerable households' livelihoods in developing countries. Using high-frequency phone survey data from the World Bank, we assess rural Indian households' vulnerability and poverty status during the pandemic. Results reveal that over three-fifths of Indian rural households are vulnerable to poverty in the context of COVID-19, despite India's evident progress in mitigating poverty in the pre-pandemic era. Poverty plays a major role in accounting for variations in household vulnerability; however, the impact of risks on household welfare is not negligible. On average, households with more members, older household heads, and more outmigrants are more vulnerable to poverty during the pandemic. The impacts of the gender of the household head, access to masks, consumption loans, and COVID-related information are nevertheless insignificant. Results stress the urgent necessity of deploying concerted interventions to strengthen household vulnerability in rural India.

Three years into the pandemic: Insights of the COVID-19 impacts on food security and nutrition in low and middle-income countries

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global crisis with unanticipated and diverse consequences. Moreover, the pandemic has considerably impacted food dynamics in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where food systems have already been challenged. These countries also have the highest share of the world's malnourished and food insecure. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the pandemic's impact on food security dimensions (availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability), with a special emphasis on LMICs. According to the results, the pandemic immediately impacted food security by limiting food production and availability. It also had an indirect impact when lockdowns and other confinement measures (e.g., social distancing, movement restrictions) made it more difficult for individuals to access food and maintain a healthy, balanced diet (cf. food utilization). Indeed, with rising unemployment and poverty, access to food has been the most critically undermined aspect of food security. At the utilization level, COVID-19 adversely influences the nutritional state of both individuals and countries, leading to an increase in all forms of malnutrition. Finally, the impact of COVID-19 on the stability dimension is dependent on the length of the pandemic as well as the effectiveness with which recovery plans are followed to ensure universal vaccine availability, among other factors. As a result, including agricultural and food systems in recovery strategies is crucial to mitigating the pandemic's long-term effects on food security.

Investigating the relationship of COVID-19 preventive and mitigation measures with mosque attendance in Pakistan

Social distancing served as a principal strategy to curtail the spread of COVID-19. However, congregational activities in mosques made it challenging to practice social distancing and led to a rapid surge in virus infections in several Muslim countries. This study uses nationally representative cross-sectional data from Pakistan, a Muslim-majority country, to examine the relationship of practicing preventive measures (such as social distancing, wearing mask and hand washing) and mitigation measures (like avoid going to the market, social gatherings, healthcare seeking, use of public transport, and long-distance travel) with mosque visits by utilizing logistic regressions. The results show that individuals adhering to preventive and mitigation measures also avoid visiting mosques and other religious gatherings. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that the government of Pakistan can avoid direct religious confrontation when it needs to minimize mosque visits to curtail the spread of the virus by implementing preventive and mitigation measures.

Sick, Hungry, and Vulnerable: Federal Stimulus and Food Security on Marginalized Populations During the COVID-19 Pandemic

In addition to the threat of serious illness, COVID-19 and subsequent restrictions had devastating economic consequences for many US citizens. This study examines the evolution of food security over the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic testing whether the initial economic stimulus payment improved the nutritional well-being of vulnerable populations. We use data from phase 1 of the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey among a nationally representative sample of adults and the 2017-2018 Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement. Using an ordered logistic regression, we assess differences in the incidence and severity of food security across demographic, income, geographic, and employment status cohorts and assess the effects of the first economic stimulus payment. Our results show that marginalized groups faced greater food insecurity and had food-related outcomes worsen over time. Blacks, Hispanics, and individuals living in rural areas became less food secure as the pandemic progressed. However, receipt of a stimulus payment appears to have improved conditions. Rising food prices and persistent high unemployment have the potential to exacerbate food insecurity among marginalized and at-risk groups.

Resilience, endogenous policy responses to COVID-19, and their impacts on farm performance

Policy measures aimed at containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic had unintended consequences on economic activities globally. In this study, we isolate and investigate the short-term partial impacts of six such measures on the farm and nonfarm incomes of agricultural households and examine the related resilience factors. Using Nigeria as a case study, we find that the COVID containment measures had mixed effects on farm and non-farm incomes in the short run. These varying effects are due to households' resilience and vulnerability factors, including land size, wealth, income diversification, involvement in processing activities, and reliance on hired labor. Our findings highlight the need for more targeted health crisis containment measures which consider the uniqueness, diversity, and regional heterogeneity of agriculture, especially the potential implications for farm viability.

Covid-19-induced Shocks, Access to Basic Needs and Coping Strategies

We examine the association between the Covid-19 pandemic and and access to basic needs, and how households respond using various coping strategies in the context of Nigeria. We use data from the Covid-19 National Longitudinal Phone Surveys (Covid-19 NLPS-2020) conducted during the Covid-19 lockdown. Our findings reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic is associated with households' exposure to shocks such as illness or injury, disruption of farming, job losses, non-farm business closure, and increase in price of food items and farming inputs. These negative shocks have severe consequences on access to basic needs of households, and the outcomes are heterogeneous across gender of household head and rural-urban residence. Households adopt a number of coping strategies, both formal and informal to mitigate the effects of the shocks on access to basic needs. The findings of this paper lend credence to the growing evidence on need to support households exposed to negative shocks and the role of formal coping mechanisms for households in developing countries.

Food insecurity and health outcome nexus: empirical evidence from the informal sector enterprises in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Food insecurity indicates the difficulty of constantly obtaining adequate food because of limited economic resources. Food insecurity challenges the desired health outcomes. Although extensive literature has examined the associations between food security and health, low-wage informal sector workers have been less frequently addressed in this topic. The present study has focused on food insecurity among the workers working in the informal sector enterprises who experienced entrenched disadvantage during COVID-19 and examines the relationship between food insecurity and health status as measured by self-reported physical and mental health conditions.

METHODS

This study has utilized cross-sectional data collected from workers working in informal manufacturing and business enterprises in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. The Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) with eight items is used to screen for food insecurity, and the Short Form 12v2 (SF12v2) scale with 12 questions, and validated for use with Bengali respondents, is used to measure the health status of the informal workers. A health production function has been constructed where the health status (both physical and mental) of workers is associated with food insecurity and other socio-economic and health care factors. Empirical analyses of the study have included descriptive statistics, mean score comparisons, and multivariate regression analyses to identify the predictive factors of the physical and mental health status of the workers.

RESULTS

A moderate to severe food insecurity is found to be responsible for the poor health status (both physical and mental) of the selected working group population. Moreover, age over 40 years, having a large family, dissatisfaction with the work place, and the prevalence of occupational health risks are linked to lower physical health, while dissatisfaction with the work place and the incidence of severe diseases contribute to poor mental health status along with food insecurity.

CONCLUSIONS

Extending social and economic protection towards health coverage and basic consumption is suggested as an immediate action to save lives and ensure productivity of the informal workers. Besides, an increase in income and ensuring decent working conditions are also recommended for the health, safety and satisfaction of workers working in informal sector enterprises.

A simulation of increasing rice price toward the disparity of income distribution: An evidence from Indonesia

Purpose

Considering the significance of rice as a staple food in Indonesia, this study aims to analyze the impact of various factors, i.e., domestic price production level, exchange rate, international rice price, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, on domestic rice prices and the resultant disparity in income distribution and inequality in the country.

Methods

A simulation analysis has been performed to assess the impact of the above-mentioned factors on rice prices and the resultant income disparity in Indonesia. For that, input data from 2006 to 2020 was used to depict the change in domestic rice prices from 2021 to 2026 due to independent variables changes.

Findings

Results revealed that a regular increase in rice production decreases rice prices in the longer term. Besides, a rise in the exchange rate decreases rice prices, and a fall in the exchange rate results in higher rice prices. Results also showed the insignificant impact of international rice prices on domestic rice prices in Indonesia. In contrast, an increase in per capita income reflected an increase in rice prices. Moreover, the result of the study exemplifies that the expenditure for rice has a very low elasticity (0.0975) compared to the expenditure on non-rice food (0.4096). More than half of the total household expenditure (50.71%) is spent on food, while the rest (49.29%) is used for non-food. The increase in rice prices affects the rise of income amongst farmers and declines the income of non-farmers. Hence it affects the decline of disparity in households' income distribution.

Originality/value

This study adds value to the existing literature with several implications for practitioners, policymakers, and government organizations to take necessary measures to stabilize rice prices and income distribution among the various income groups.

The unexpected consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on maritime crime: Evidence from Indonesia and Nigeria

The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating. Job losses, negative growth rates, and increased poverty have all followed rising infection rates. The economic costs have been especially challenging for many piracy-prone countries. The international monetary fund anticipates sizable unemployment increases in many Indo-Pacific countries. Deeper and more durable economic damage may materialize in some West African countries. Often, negative economic shocks produce surges in crime, both on land and at sea. The present study evaluates the effects of COVID-19 on maritime pirate attacks in two countries, Nigeria, located in the Gulf of Guinea, and Indonesia, located in the Indo-Pacific. We employ monthly and quarterly data on government measures to prevent infection, sea-piracy incidents, and economic conditions to explore whether the subsequent economic fallout produced more maritime crime. We do not find clear evidence of this relationship in Indonesia. However, COVID-19-induced stringency measure does appear to have increased sea-piracy incidents in Nigeria.

Food processing industry changes across China regions: The case of flour, rice, oil, and other cereal derivative food

Faced with the pressure of slowing industrial growth and industrial transformation requirements, it is crucial to analyze the changes and the corresponding driving factors of the food processing industry in China. An analysis using traditional and spatial shift-share models was conducted to decompose the changes in the food processing industry in each region of China from 2009 to 2019 into five effects: national growth effect (NG), industrial mix effect (IM), competitive effect (CE), neighbor-nation competitive effect (NNC), and region-neighbor competitive effect (RNC). Among the five effects from 2009 to 2019, the NG contributed the most to the growth in most regions, indicating that the development of the food processing industry in China was greatly influenced by the industrial base and that China's food processing industry has entered a "growth bottleneck period." During the period 2009-2014 to period 2014-2019, compared to the IM and CE, the influence of spatial spillover effects was stronger and significantly enhanced. Moreover, the IM, CE, NNC, and RNC in most southern regions were stronger than those in most northern regions. Therefore, China's food processing industry needs and is transforming into high-quality development. It is necessary to innovate the mode of development of food processing industry and strengthen interregional exchanges and cooperation.

COVID-19 Pandemic Impacted Food Security and Caused Psychosocial Stress in Selected States of Nigeria

The COVID-19 disease has infected many countries, causing generalized impacts on different income categories. We carried out a survey among households (n = 412) representing different income groups in Nigeria. We used validated food insecurity experience and socio-psychologic tools. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The earning capacities of the respondents ranged from 145 USD/month for low-income earners to 1945 USD/month for high-income earners. A total of 173 households (42%) ran out of food during the COVID-19 pandemic. All categories of households experienced increasing dependency on the general public and a perception of increasing insecurity, with the high-income earners experiencing the greatest shift. In addition, increasing levels of anger and irritation were experienced among all categories. Of the socio-demographic variables, only gender, educational level of the household head, work hours per day, and family income based on society class were associated (p < 0.05) with food security and hunger due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although psychological stress was observed to be greater in the low-income earning group, household heads with medium and high family income were more likely to have satisfactory experiences regarding food security and hunger. It is recommended that socio-economic groups should be mapped and support systems should target each group to provide the needed support in terms of health, social, economic, and mental wellness.

Assessing food security among young farmers in Africa: evidence from Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda

Food insecurity remains a serious challenge for many households in Africa and the situation is even more prevalent among young people. However, there is a dearth of empirical evidence on youth food security status in Africa. We assessed the level and determinants of food security among young farmers in Africa. We adopted a multi-stage sampling technique to select 400, 429, and 606 young farmers in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda, respectively. Individual food consumption was assessed following a 7 days recall method. The Food Consumption Score, which combines dietary diversity and consumption frequency was used to assess food security status while the determinants of food security were identified using a logistic regression model. Results suggest low dietary diversity across the three countries. Also, the majority of the respondents had an unacceptable food consumption score, suggesting that despite being food producers, young farmers are still food insecure. The odds of being food secure was positively determined by access to extension services, participation in the ENABLE TAAT business incubation programme, and access to market information but, negatively by access to credit, number of employees, Covid-19 pandemic, and location. Additionally, the food security status of young female farmers was positively influenced by age, suggesting that younger youths are less food secure compared to older ones. These results suggest that more efforts should be directed towards improving the food security of young African farmers and that policy- and programme-level interventions should support access to extension services, market information, and land. Additionally, more investments should be directed towards developing need-based agribusiness incubation programmes with an effort to scale existing programmes beyond the regular one-time period.

Household living conditions and food insecurity in Nigeria: a longitudinal study during COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

This study set out to investigate the risk of household food insecurity in Nigeria during the novel COVID-19 pandemic using a harmonised dataset of Nigeria's prepandemic face-to-face survey and two waves of the COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS).

SETTING

Nigeria.

PARTICIPANTS

A representative sample of 1674 households is used in the analysis.

DESIGN

A longitudinal study.

RESULTS

Our longitudinal study reveals a significant increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria during the COVID-19 crisis. For a sample of 1674 households used in the analysis, nearly 32% were moderately food insecure in the baseline survey (ie, the prepandemic period), compared with 74% and 72% that faced the same degree of food insecurity in the two waves of the COVID-19 phone survey. In like manner, not up to 4% of the households faced severe food insecurity in the prepandemic period, compared with 43% and 22% that experienced the same level of food insecurity during the period of the pandemic. Based on the available information in the dataset, we construct a composite non-monetary measure (or index) of household well-being and employ the binary logistic model to investigate the objects under study. The empirical results show that the well-being index has a strong negative association with household food insecurity. Further investigation reveals that the risk of being food insecure increases for households in relatively poor living conditions compared with those in the middle category and conversely declines for households in much better living conditions.

CONCLUSION

This study informs an understanding of the prevalence and risk of household food insecurity in Nigeria during the novel COVID-19 pandemic and provides insights that can guide policy actions in responding to the current wave of food crises in Nigeria.

COVID-19, food insecurity and dietary diversity of households: Survey evidence from Nigeria

The policy measures of the government of Nigeria to restrain the spread of COVID-19, particularly in the initial three months (April - June 2020) led to significant disruptions to household livelihoods and food security. We investigate the effects of COVID-19 on food security and dietary diversity of households; focusing on the pathways through which income loss, endowments of wealth, social capital, and safety net programs moderate the severity of households' food security and dietary diversity. Primary data obtained from a telephone survey of 1,031 Nigerian households were analyzed using ordered logit and negative binomial models. Our results show that income losses due to the COVID-19 restrictive measures had pushed households into a more severe food insecurity and less diverse nutritional outcomes. Regarding wealth effects, livestock ownership significantly cushioned households from falling into a more severe food insecurity amid the pandemic. We found that because of the pandemic's indiscriminate effect across communities, the potential of social capital as an informal support mechanism might have been eroded to enable households to cope with shocks. Furthermore, safety net programs by the government and NGOs did not provide significant protection to households from falling into severe food insecurity and malnutrition amid the pandemic. We suggest three policy propositions - prioritize investment in local job creation to curb income loss; build the wealth base of households (e.g., land tenure security or livestock) to enhance resilience to shocks; and target safety nets and other social support programs spatially, temporally, and across social groups to enhance the effectiveness of such programs amid shocks.

COVID-19 outbreak and rural household food security in the Western Democratic Republic of the Congo

Although global assessments of the initial impacts of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have focused on income, jobs, and health conditions, this study constitutes one of the first studies that assessed the impact of COVID-19 on food security in DRC and established the short-term implications of the COVID-19 outbreak on rural households' food security in DRC. In addition, the study recommendations contributed to shaping government interventions toward the pandemic in the Country. The study used data from four western provinces of the country on 1339 households. Our results show that 80 % of households experienced an increase in food prices, 61 % a noticeable decrease in the availability of food, and 54 % a decrease in their dietary diversity. Due to changes in food availability, dietary diversity, and food accessibility imposed by the COVID-19 outbreak, >70 % of households experienced either a decrease in the consumption of meat, milk, fish, and cereals or an increase in their consumption of traditional vegetables. In addition, COVID-19 significantly affected food security dimensions in larger households, households with a greater number of members aged 35 years and above, households headed by women, households where members participate in associations or cooperatives, households that depend on crop sales as the major source of income, and in poorer households. These findings highlight the significant implications of the COVID-19 outbreak on household food security in western DRC and underscore the need for emergency interventions to strengthen the resilience of rural people and accelerate their recovery and other long-term measures toward sustainable and inclusive development.

Link between structural risk factors for adverse impacts of COVID-19 and food insecurity in developed and developing countries

COVID-19 has had serious consequences for world food security; lockdowns and social distancing have led to changes in global food value chains, primarily affecting the poorest of the planet. The aim of this research is to analyse the relationship between food insecurity and the structural risk factors for adverse impacts of COVID-19. To that end, 12 contingency tables are constructed to identify the association between the pillars of the food insecurity index and the INFORM COVID-19 Risk Index. We use the Gamma coefficient as a measure of association. In addition, this paper proposes a synthetic index produced by applying the TOPSIS method, using the pillars of the two aforementioned indices (criteria) to establish a ranking of 112 countries (alternatives) ordered from highest to lowest risk faced in the key year of the pandemic, 2020. The results show that the two problems are connected, indicating to international organizations that countries with worse food insecurity will suffer more serious consequences from extreme situations such as the one experienced during the pandemic. The ranking established directs international organizations' attention to countries such as Haiti, Zambia and Burundi, highlighting their greater need for an injection of financial aid than other emerging economies. Conversely, Switzerland is the country with the lowest combined risk.

Perceptions of COVID-19 shocks and adoption of sustainable agricultural practices in Ghana

Most studies on the novel COVID-19 pandemic have focused mainly on human health, food systems, and employment with limited studies on how farmers implement sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) in response to the pandemic. This study examines how perceptions of COVID-19 shocks influence the adoption of SAPs among smallholder farmers in Ghana. We find that perceptions of COVID-19 shocks influence the probability and intensity of SAPs adoption. Secondly, households who anticipated COVID-19 shocks recorded heterogeneity effects in the combinations (complementarity and substitutability) of SAPs. Farmers who anticipated an increase in input prices and loss of income due to COVID-19 recorded the highest complementarity association between pesticide and zero tillage while farmers who expected limited market access reported the highest complementarity between mixed cropping and mulching. Farmers who projected a decrease in output prices complements pesticides with mixed cropping. The findings suggest that understanding the heterogeneity effects in the combinations of SAPs due to COVID-19 shocks is critical to effectively design, target and disseminate sustainable intensification programs in a post-pandemic period.

Empirical analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity in South Africa

The study sought to ascertain the changes in the food insecurity status of households during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study made use of secondary data obtained from the 5 Waves of the National Income Dynamics Study-Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM). Descriptive statistics, food insecurity index and independent sample t-test were used to compare the mean differences in the food insecurity statuses of the households over the 5 Waves. The study found that there was an increase in food insecurity as the COVID-19 progressed from Wave 1 to 5. Significant differences at the 1% level were observed between Wave 5 and Wave 1 as well as between Wave 5 and Wave 3. The study concludes that there was food security in the initial progression of the COVID-19 pandemic which deteriorated. The study recommends a reconsideration of the scrapping of the top ups on the social grants. This will likely tighten the dire economic situation the households find themselves in. There is need to expand the social safety nets to accommodate the vulnerable in society. Short and localised value chains should be promoted to improve food accessibility during times of crisis.

Dynamic livelihood impacts of COVID-19 on different rural households in mountainous areas of China

Background

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has brought about severe negative livelihood consequences for rural households worldwide. However, the heterogeneity and dynamics of livelihood impacts have been under-researched. There is also lacking a livelihood assessment of the pandemic based on a whole pandemic cycle. This study aimed to investigate the dynamic and heterogeneous livelihood impacts of COVID-19 pandemic for rural households in 2020 based on a case study of Southeast China.

Methods

The pandemic in China had experienced a complete cycle from initial outbreak, to intermediate recovery and finally new normal stage in 2020. We conducted face-to-face interviews with 95 rural households randomly drawn from 2 rural villages in Xunwu County, Jiangxi Province, Southeast China. The sampled households are interviewed with a questionnaire through face-to-face surveys in February and March, 2021 to evaluate the overall livelihood impacts of the pandemic during 2020. The survey collected data on demographic and economic characteristics, governmental control measures, and effects of the COVID-19 on agricultural production, employment, income, education, and daily life. In-depth interviews are also conducted to clarify the livelihood impacts of COVID-19 on villages.

Results

Results showed that the pandemic tremendously caused substantially negative livelihood impacts, including decreasing household income, and disorders in daily lives. The average income loss of all survey households is 6,842 RMB, accounting for 13.01% of the total household income in 2020. Containment measures also resulted in a series of disturbances in daily lives, such as rising food price additional expenditures, travel restrictions, party restrictions, closure of schools and deceasing living standards. There is remarkable household heterogeneity in the livelihood impacts. Results also revealed that the livelihood strategies of rural households to cope with the threat of COVID-19 were different in various pandemic stages.

Conclusion

Our findings have illustrated the severity and heterogeneity of livelihood impacts on rural households induced by COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamics of livelihood impacts is also highlighted in the study. Several policy suggestion was proposed to mitigate these negative consequences of the pandemic.

Nutrition-sensitive lockdowns: conceptual framework and empirical insights from Africa during COVID-19

Motivation

Countries facing challenges of nutrition security confront a trade-off when dealing with pandemics such as COVID-19. Implementing lockdown measures, widely used worldwide, can help "flatten the curve" (of disease), but such measures may worsen nutrition security.

Purpose

We aim to identify and justify nutrition-sensitive lockdown measures to reduce trade-offs with nutrition security.

Methods and approach

We propose a conceptual framework which distinguishes eight lockdown measures and six pathways to nutrition security. To demonstrate the relevance of the pathways, we reviewed emerging literature on COVID-19 and nutrition security. We analysed the content of 1,188 newspaper articles on lockdown effects in five African countries - Benin, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Zambia.

Findings

Some lockdown measures, such as closing workplaces and restricting movement, potentially worsen nutrition far more than others - banning events and public gatherings have far lesser impacts on nutrition. This can be seen from the framework, literature, and is supported by the analysis of newspaper reports in the five countries.

Policy implications

It is better when possible to test and trace disease than to lockdown. But when lockdowns are needed, then first recourse should be to measures that have few nutritional consequences, such as banning public events. When more drastic measures are necessary, look to mitigate nutritional harm by, for example, exempting farm labour from restrictions on movement, by replacing school meals with take-home rations, and, above all, providing income support to households most affected and most vulnerable.

COVID-19 in rural Africa: Food access disruptions, food insecurity and coping strategies in Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania

This study assesses the extent of COVID-19-related food insecurity in Kenya, Tanzania, and Namibia. Using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, we measure food insecurity in various dimensions and document several food access disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic between April and July 2020. Furthermore, we assess the association of COVID-19 countermeasures with the adoption of various strategies in line with the coping strategies index. We rely on a unique phone survey that followed households who participated in an earlier field-based survey. First, through Ordinary Least-Squares and Probit regressions, we show a strong and statistically significant association between COVID-19 countermeasures and food access disruptions and food insecurity in each of the three countries. We then use a multivariate probit regression model to understand the use of the various coping strategies, including reducing food intake, increasing food search, and relying more on less nutritious foods. We provide evidence on the complementarities and trade-offs in using these coping strategies. COVID-19 and related lockdown measures coincided with a deleterious increase in food insecurity in rural Africa.

COVID-19 market disruptions and food security: Evidence from households in rural Liberia and Malawi

We use data collected from panel phone surveys to document the changes in food security of households in rural Liberia and Malawi during the market disruptions associated with the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. We use two distinct empirical approaches in our analysis: (a) an event study around the date of the lockdowns (March to July 2020), and (b) a difference-in-differences analysis comparing the lockdown period in 2020 to the same months in 2021, in order to attempt to control for seasonality. In both countries, market activity was severely disrupted and we observe declines in expenditures. However, we find no evidence of declines in food security.

Food insecurity during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries

We document trends in food security up to one full year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries. Using household-level data collected by the World Bank, we highlight differences over time amid the pandemic, between rural and urban areas, and between female-headed and male-headed households within Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria. We first observe a sharp increase in food insecurity during the early months of the pandemic with a subsequent gradual decline. Next, we find that food insecurity has increased more in rural areas than in urban areas relative to pre-pandemic data within each of these countries. Finally, we do not find a systematic difference in changes in food insecurity between female-headed and male-headed households. These trends complement previous microeconomic analysis studying short-term changes in food security associated with the pandemic and existing macroeconomic projections.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Nutritional Intake in Rural China: Panel Data Evidence

The COVID-19 pandemic introduced risks and challenges to global food and nutrition security. In this paper, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the nutritional intake of China’s rural residents using panel data and a fixed effects model. The data were collected in 2019 and 2020 and covered nine provinces and 2631 households in rural China. The results reveal that an increase of 100 confirmed cases in a county resulted in a 1.30% (p < 0.01), 1.42% (p < 0.01), 1.65% (p < 0.01), and 1.15% (p < 0.01) decrease in per capita intake of dietary energy, carbohydrates, fats, and proteins, respectively. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant and negative effect on dietary macronutrient intake in the low-income group at the 5% level of significance. Our study indicates that the potential insufficient nutrition situation, nutritional imbalance, and dietary imbalance of low-income rural residents should be addressed appropriately.

Role of cash transfers in mitigating food insecurity in India during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal study in the Bihar state

OBJECTIVE

There are scant empirical data on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security across the globe. India is no exception, with insights into the impacts of lockdown on food insecurity now emerging. We contribute to the empirical evidence on the prevalence of food insecurity in Bihar state before and after lockdown, and whether the government's policy of cash transfer moderated negative effects of food insecurity or not.

DESIGN

This was a longitudinal study.

SETTINGS

The study was conducted in Gaya and Nalanda district of Bihar state in India from December 2019 to September 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1797 households were surveyed in survey 1, and about 52% (n=939) were followed up in survey 2. Valid data for 859 households were considered for the analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, we found that household conditions were compared before and after lockdown. The effect of cash transfers was examined in a quasi-experimental method using a longitudinal study design. Logistic regression and propensity score adjusted analyses were used to identify factors associated with food insecurity.

RESULTS

Household food insecurity worsened considerably during lockdown, rising from 20% (95% CI 17.4 to 22.8) to 47% (95% CI 43.8 to 50.4) at the sample mean. Households experiencing negative income shocks were more likely to have been food insecure before the lockdown (adjusted OR 6.4, 95% CI 4.9 to 8.3). However, households that received cash transfers had lower odds of being food insecure once the lockdown was lifted (adjusted OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.99).

CONCLUSION

These findings provide evidence on how the swift economic response to the pandemic crises using targeted income transfers was relatively successful in mitigating potentially deep impacts of food insecurity.

Income shock and food insecurity prediction Vietnam under the pandemic

As COVID-19 threatens the food security of vulnerable populations across the globe, there is an increasing need to identify places that are affected most in order to target aid. We propose a two-step approach to predict changes in food insecurity risk caused by income shocks at a granular level using existing household-level data and external information on aggregate income shocks. We apply this approach to assess changes in food insecurity risk during the pandemic in Vietnam. Using national household survey data between 2010 and 2018, we first estimate that a 10% decrease in income leads to a 3.5% increase in food insecurity. We then use the 2019 national Labor Force Survey to predict changes in the share of food-insecure households caused by the income shocks during the pandemic for 702 districts. We find that the small, predicted change in food insecurity risk at the national level masks substantial variation at the district level, and changes in food insecurity risk are larger among young children. Food relief policies, therefore, should prioritize a small number of districts predicted to be severely affected.

Exploring the Role of Contiguous Farmland Cultivation and Adoption of No-Tillage Technology in Improving Transferees’ Income Structure: Evidence from China

Seasonal alternations of extreme weather such as continuous drought and rare rainstorms significantly influence farmers’ adoption of agricultural technologies. Compared with traditional tillage, no-tillage technology has more advantages to cope with extreme weather. It is hypothesized that the cultivation of contiguous farmland is still minimal in spite of the transference of farmland on a large scale in China, which ultimately halts the adoption of no-tillage technology and influences the income of households. The current study used 793 farmland transferees’ data from Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia provinces of China to explore this phenomenon empirically. By employing the endogenous switching regression model, the study revealed that contiguous farmland significantly promotes the adoption of no-tillage technology and positively influences households’ agricultural and non-agricultural income. Meanwhile, the moderating effect of the stability of farmland rental contracts is explored. Further, it was also found that education level, organizational participation, relationship networks, and information acquisition channels influence the income of transferees who opt for no-tillage technology. The study further revealed that if a transferee who opts for no-tillage technology switches to traditional technology, their agricultural and non-agricultural income will decrease by 0.2893 and 1.6979 ten thousand yuan (RMB), respectively. In contrast, if a transferee who opts for traditional technology then switches to adopt no-tillage technology, their agricultural and non-agricultural income will increase by 0.1919 and 1.3044 ten thousand yuan (RMB), respectively. Conclusively, the current study’s empirical findings offer policymakers possible guidelines to devise strategies and encourage transferees to opt for no-tillage applications to increase their families’ income.

Perceived effects of COVID-19 restrictions on smallholder farmers: Evidence from seven lower- and middle-income countries

CONTEXT

The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented global disruption and continues to wreak havoc. Dire predictions were made about the risks to smallholder farmers in lower- and middle- income, but hard data have been lacking. We present the results from 9201 interviews with smallholder farmers from seven countries.

OBJECTIVE

The objectives are to describe: i) how farmers perceive the key effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures on livelihoods and food security; ii) the effects on agricultural activities; iii) the coping strategies households deployed.

METHODS

Household surveys were conducted as part of ongoing monitoring programs during the latter half of 2020. Sites in seven countries were covered: Burundi; Kenya; Rwanda; Tanzania; Uganda; Zambia; and Vietnam. Findings are representative of smallholder farmers across multiple districts per country.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The effects of the COVID-19 containment measures were widespread and often perceived to be severe. Food purchase, off-farm income, sale of farm produce, and access to crop inputs were all affected. In locations under more stringent restrictions during the time of the survey, up to 80% of households had to reduce food consumption and/or variety. Almost all households with off-farm incomes reported reductions, by half on average. A half to three-quarters of households (depending on the location) with income from farm sales reported losses compared to the pre-pandemic situation. In locations with more relaxed containment measures in place during the time of the survey, less frequent and less severe economic and food security outcomes were perceived by the respondent, with around 20% of households reporting negative outcomes. Mobility restrictions, reduced market access, crashes in sale price for agricultural goods, and soaring prices for food purchase were key factors. Sale prices generally dropped for all agricultural products in any given location, and affected not only high-value perishable products, but also staple crops such as maize and cassava. Depending on the location, between 30% and 90% of the households applied coping strategies in response to the pandemic during 2020. There was an almost complete absence of official aid amongst households interviewed.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our results raise the thorny issue of how best to balance containment of disease against the wellbeing of the vulnerable rural population in lower- and middle-income countries. There is a risk that the buffering capacity of rural people will become exhausted. Possible policy measures to limit negative outcomes include i) tiered mobility restrictions with travel allowed for economic reasons; ii) short-term price guarantee schemes to stabilise the food system; iii) direct aid; iv) the timely re-installation of distribution channels for agricultural inputs.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India

The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study's findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Food security, poverty and household resilience to COVID-19 in Burkina Faso: Evidence from urban small traders' households

Analyses of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security of urban households and their resilience are increasingly receiving scholarly interest. In Burkina Faso, urban households whose primary activity is trade were the most immediately impacted by COVID-19 due to the closure of markets. The objective of this research was to analyze the effect of income loss due to COVID-19 on food security and poverty among urban small traders' households by considering their resilience capacity. A survey was performed on 503 households of small traders operating in 5 markets in Ouagadougou. Objective and subjective indicators of food security were calculated, as well as several indices of resilience capacity. A simple logit model and ordered logit model were used for the socioeconomic analysis. Three main results emerge. First, COVID-19 has increased the likelihood of households being food insecure due to their lower food consumption scores. Second, estimates show that COVID-19 has reduced households' incomes by increasing their likelihood of entering poverty. Finally, at all levels of analysis, households with adaptive capacity were able to adjust to the shock, but social security was not a mitigating factor. Implications in terms of economic policies are discussed.

Fruitful exchanges: social networks and food resources amidst change

BACKGROUND

The Amazon region of Brazil is known both for its significant biological and cultural diversity. It is also a region, like many parts of the country, marked by food insecurity, even amongst its rural agricultural populations. In a novel approach, this paper addresses the networks of exchanges of local food and their relationship to the agrobiodiversity of traditional riverine peoples' (ribeirinho) households in the Central Amazon. Methodologically, it involves mapping the social networks and affinities between households, inventories of known species, and, finally, statistical tests of the relationships between network and subsequent agrobiodiversity.

RESULTS

The diversity per area of each land type where food cultivation or management takes place shows how home gardens, fields and orchards are areas of higher diversity and intense cultivation compared to fallow areas. Our findings, however, indicate that a household's income does appear to be strongly associated with the total agrobiodiversity across cultivation areas. In addition, a household's agrobiodiversity is significantly associated with the frequency and intensity of food exchanges between households.

CONCLUSIONS

Agrobiodiversity cannot be considered separate from the breadth of activities focused on sustenance and yields from the cash economy, which riverine people engage in daily. It seems to be connected to quotidian social interactions and exchanges in both predictable and occasionally subtler ways. Those brokers who serve as prominent actors in rural communities may not always be the most productive or in possession of the largest landholdings, although in some cases they are. Their proclivity for cultivating and harvesting a wide diversity of produce may be equally important if not more so.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40066-021-00342-5.

COVID-19 risks and systemic gaps in Nigeria: resilience building lessons for pandemic and climate change management

Pandemics alter a lot of human activities and the COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 was no exception. The COVID-19 pandemic, like climate change, has far-reaching consequences that transcend geographical boundaries. The COVID-19-induced disruptions were global and rapid and so are emerging climate change impacts which are slow on set. The consequent closure of businesses and public facilities translated to economic grounding which invariably took a toll on people. The extensive impact across various facets of society highlights the complex interrelationship often overlooked by most people. Although most African countries escaped the wrath of the disease, the lessons from the pandemic must be learnt and mainstreamed into managing the impacts of climate change. This paper attempts to draw lessons from recent developments and gaps experienced in the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and how improvements can be made in managing climate change. The analysis identified gaps in the management of COVID-19 in Nigeria. These gaps are evident in the current management of climate change impact and mitigation. The paper highlighted lessons from the pandemic in Nigeria that are vital in the management of climate change. The paper identified supply chain resilience and circularity, overhauling of health insurance programmes, diversification for growth, reorientation of priorities, and the building of agile and responsive institutions as practical approaches to mainstream lessons from the pandemic for climate change impact management. Furthermore, adequate investment in preparedness, risk education, research and development, and integrated data infrastructure is vital to ensure the lessons become part of the consciousness of the people.

Viewpoint: High-frequency phone surveys on COVID-19: Good practices, open questions

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, face-to-face survey data collection efforts came to a halt due to lockdowns, limitations on mobility and social distancing requirements. What followed was a surge in phone surveys to fulfill rapidly evolving needs for timely and policy-relevant microdata for understanding the socioeconomic impacts of and responses to the pandemic. Even as the face-to-face survey data collection efforts are resuming in different parts of the world with COVID-19 safety protocols, the rapidly-acquired experience with phone surveys on the part of national statistical offices and survey practitioners in low- and middle-income countries appears to have formed the foundation for phone surveys to be more commonly implemented in the post-pandemic era, in response to other shocks and as complementary efforts to face-to-face surveys. Informed by the practical experience with the high-frequency phone surveys that have been implemented with support from the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) to monitor the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper provides an overview of options for the design and implementation of phone surveys to collect representative data from households and individuals. Further, the discussion identifies the requirements for phone surveys to be a mainstay in the toolkits of national statistical offices and the directions for future research on the design and implementation of phone surveys.

Impacts of COVID-19 on rural livelihoods in Bangladesh: Evidence using panel data

Rapid assessments have been emerging on the effects of COVID-19, yet rigorous analyses remain scant. Here, rigorous evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on several livelihood outcomes are presented, with a particular focus on heterogenous effects of COVID-19. We use a household-level panel dataset consisting of 880 data points collected in rural Bangladesh in 2018 and 2020, and employ difference-in-differences with fixed effects regression techniques. Results suggest that COVID-19 had significant and heterogenous effects on livelihood outcomes. Agricultural production and share of production sold were reduced, especially for rice crops. Further, diet diversity and education expenditure were reduced for the total sample. Households primarily affected by (fear of) sickness had a significantly lower agricultural production, share of crop market sales, and lower health and education expenditure, compared to households affected by other COVID-19 effects, such as travel restrictions. In turn, (fear of) sickness and the correlated reduced incidence of leaving the house, resulted in higher off-farm incomes suggesting that households engage in less physically demanding and localized work. Policy-makers need to be cognizant of these heterogenous COVID-19 effects and formulate policies that are targeted at those households that are most vulnerable (e.g., unable/willing to leave the house due to (fear of) sickness).

The Effects of Pandemics on the Vulnerability of Food Security in West Africa—A Scoping Review

The purpose of this paper was to show the effects of the Ebola and COVID-19 pandemics on food security vulnerability in West Africa. The methodology is based on a scoping literature review using the PRISMA method. The study showed that food security was affected by the restrictive measures in the different West African countries. In addition, it shows that this region is highly vulnerable to such crises, which can combine their effects with those of other events such as climate change and civil unrest. In both pandemics, all pillars of food security were affected. The effects on urban and rural centers may be very different. The study suggests a better understanding of the differences between rural and urban centers and between men and women and how long-term restraint measures can affect rural areas where agriculture is the main lever for reducing food insecurity. Food security must be seriously considered by governments when implementing restrictive measures during a pandemic. Consideration of health factors alone at the expense of food security can greatly exacerbate health problems and even increase cases of disease.

Impact of Epidemic-Affected Labor Shortage on Food Safety: A Chinese Scenario Analysis Using the CGE Model

Human food safety should be given priority during a major public health crisis. As the primary element of agricultural production, labor tends to suffer the most during a period of public health concern. Studying the impact of epidemic-affected labor shortages on agricultural production, trade, and prices has important implications for food security. This study used a calculable general equilibrium model to study the changes in agricultural production, trade, and prices under different labor damage scenarios. The results showed that agricultural production was less affected under a scenario where the epidemic was controlled locally. The output of agricultural products decreased by about 2.19%, and the prices of agricultural products increased slightly. However, the nationwide output of agricultural products decreased by only 0.1%, and the prices remained largely stable. In the case of the spread of the epidemic, the output of agricultural products in the epidemic area decreased by 2.11%, and the prices of certain agricultural products increased significantly. For example, the price of vegetables increased by 0.78%, the price of pork increased by about 0.7%, and those of agricultural products in other parts of the country also increased slightly. Compared with the national spread scenario, the local outbreak scenario had a smaller impact on Chinese food security, indicating Chinese effective policy against the epidemic. Although the impact of labor shortage under the influence of the epidemic on China was relatively limited, and considering its stable food security, we should pay attention to the increase in the process of agricultural products and changes in agricultural trade in the epidemic area. The residents in the epidemic areas could not effectively obtain nutritious food, which affected their health. Thus, the government should also completely mobilize agricultural resources to ensure the nutrition safety of residents during major public health incidents.

Impacts of COVID-19 induced food insecurity among informal migrants: Insight from Dhaka, Bangladesh

Food insecurity is one of the rising problems in Bangladesh, and it is severely prevalent among informal migrant workers. In this case, the COVID-19 pandemic has multiplied the food insecurity of informal migrant workers. This study explores and synthesizes the COVID-19 induced food insecurity impact among informal migrants and recommends policy actions to tackle the COVID-19 led food crisis in Bangladesh. A qualitative research approach, including in-depth interviews, four FGDs, and participant observation, has been applied to data collection from different parts of Dhaka city. A thematic approach to interpretive phenomenological analysis is followed in this study. The results show that COVID-19 induced lockdown significantly affects informal migrants' household food security. Most participants report severe complications due to food insecurity like consuming less food, price hiking, no fish or meat, potato, and vegetable. Food insecurity leads to migrant's chronic food shortage, starvation, malnutrition of mother and children, and unhealthy food. As a result, the way of life of informal migrants has been directed to more fragility and vulnerability during the pandemic; even they are not affordable to maintain a minimal level of family affairs and necessity. The findings of this study would be essential guidelines for the governmental and non-governmental organizations and development practitioners to address the food insecurity situations.

Food Insecurity, Safety Nets, and Coping Strategies during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Multi-Country Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected food security across the world. As governments respond in different ways both with regards to containing the pandemic and addressing food insecurity, in parallel detailed datasets are being collected and analysed. To date, literature addressing food insecurity during the pandemic, using these datasets, has tended to focus on individual countries. By contrast, this paper provides the first detailed multi-country cross-sectional snapshot of the social dimensions of food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic across nine African countries (Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda). Econometric analysis reveals that female-headed households, the poor, and the less-formally educated, appear to suffer more in terms of food insecurity during this global pandemic. Importantly, our findings show that the negative consequences of the pandemic are disproportionately higher for lower-income households and those who had to borrow to make ends meet rather than relying on savings; impacts are country-specific; and there is considerable spatial heterogeneity within country food insecurity, suggesting that tailored policies will be required. These nine countries employ both food and cash safety nets, with the evidence suggesting that, at least when these data were collected, cash safety nets have been slightly more effective at reducing food insecurity. Our results provide a baseline that can be used by governments to help design and implement tailored policies to address food insecurity. Our findings can also be used as lessons to reshape policies to tackle the heterogeneous impacts of climate change.

Who Lost Most Wages and Household Income during the COVID‐19 Pandemic in Poor Rural China?

China managed to eliminate all extreme poverty in rural areas in 2020. Poor households, however, may risk falling back into poverty due to the COVID‐19. This paper examines the impacts of the pandemic on wages and household incomes among different groups in poor areas of rural China. Using a unique dataset from five poverty‐stricken counties, we found that the pandemic has had large negative effects on wage income for migrant workers and workers in manufacturing, the private sector, and small enterprises. Compared with households relying on wage income, households relying on small businesses have suffered much more from the pandemic, whereas households depending on farming or transfer payments have been less affected. Although poor and ethnic minority households lost significant amounts of wage income due to the pandemic, they did not lose more household income than nonpoor and nonminority households. We conclude that support from the government has kept vulnerable households from suffering more than other households from the effects of COVID‐19. Our findings suggest that the government can play a strong role in alleviating the negative impacts of the COVID‐19.