Changes of forest cover and disturbance regimes in the mountain forests of the Alps

Geospatial AI solution to monitor and mitigate increasing adverse ecological and hydrological impacts of climate change in Uttarakhand Himalaya (India)

Though climate change and its adverse ecological and geohydrological impacts are being experienced across the world in all types of ecosystems but as far as the Himalaya mountain ecosystem is concerned, the rate of climate change and subsequent impacts have reached an alarming stage due to anthropogenic and technogenic intervention on natural process and now need most effective and less time taking management strategy. Addressing this burning environmental problem, a geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) technique-based case study is presented here from one of the most densely populated and urbanized regions of Himalaya mountain, viz Uttarakhand Himalaya, which is also called central Himalaya. The results of the study suggest that due to quite a high rate of climate change, the climatic zones shifting towards higher altitudes at the average rate of 5.6 2 m/year, causing several adverse ecological impacts in terms of decreasing quality dense temperate forest cover (0.05%/year), snow cover (0.02%/year), water bodies (0.01%/year), agricultural land (0.31%/year), and horticultural land (0.01%/year). Conversion of these eco-friendly land use land cover into barren land, fallow land, and built-up land causes geohydrological consequences of climate change in terms of decreasing rainy days (1%/year), drying perennial springs (0.20%/year), perennial streams (0.11%/year), decreasing spring and stream discharge during non-monsoon season, increased extreme rainfall events (6-8%/year), and subsequent surface runoff during monsoon season. Further, the study advocates that the degraded geohydrological process has resulted in an increased frequency of disaster events (floods, cloudbursts, landslides. etc.) with a 3% (12 events) annual rate, causing great loss of environment, infrastructure, lives, and economy each year. Therefore, it has been very urgent to mitigate climate change and increase geohydrological disaster events through an integrated approach. Keep in view this, the present study proposed an integrated watershed management plan which is equally useful to be implemented across the Himalaya region and other similar ecosystems across the world.

Mapping the natural disturbance risk to protective forests across the European Alps

Mountain forests play an essential role in protecting people and infrastructure from natural hazards. However, forests are currently experiencing an increasing rate of natural disturbances (including windthrows, bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires) that may jeopardize their capacity to provide this ecosystem service in the future. Here, we mapped the risk to forests' protective service across the European Alps by integrating the risk components of hazard (in this case, the probability of a disturbance occurring), exposure (the proportion of forests that protect people or infrastructure), and vulnerability (the probability that the forests lose their protective structure after a disturbance). We combined satellite-based data on forest disturbances from 1986 to 2020 with data on key forest structural characteristics (cover and height) from spaceborne lidar (GEDI), and used ensemble models to predict disturbance probabilities and post-disturbance forest structure based on topographic and climatic predictors. Wind and bark beetles are dominant natural disturbance agents in the Alps, with a mean annual probability of occurrence of 0.05%, while forest fires were less likely (mean annual probability <0.01%), except in the south-western Alps. After a disturbance, over 40% of forests maintained their protective structure, highlighting the important role of residual living or dead trees. Within 30 years after wind and bark beetle disturbance, 61% of forests were likely to either maintain or recover their protective structure. Vulnerability to fires was higher, with 51% of forest still lacking sufficient protective structure 30 years after fire. Fire vulnerability was especially pronounced at dry sites, which also had a high fire hazard. Combining hazard and vulnerability with the exposure of protective forests we identified 186 Alpine municipalities with a high risk to protective forests due to wind and bark beetles, and 117 with a high fire risk. Mapping the disturbance risk to ecosystem services can help identify priority areas for increasing preparedness and managing forests towards lower susceptibility under an intensifying disturbance regime.

Projected climate and canopy change lead to thermophilization and homogenization of forest floor vegetation in a hotspot of plant species richness

Mountain forests are plant diversity hotspots, but changing climate and increasing forest disturbances will likely lead to far-reaching plant community change. Projecting future change, however, is challenging for forest understory plants, which respond to forest structure and composition as well as climate. Here, we jointly assessed the effects of both climate and forest change, including wind and bark beetle disturbances, using the process-based simulation model iLand in a protected landscape in the northern Alps (Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany), asking: (1) How do understory plant communities respond to 21st-century change in a topographically complex mountain landscape, representing a hotspot of plant species richness? (2) How important are climatic changes (i.e., direct climate effects) versus forest structure and composition changes (i.e., indirect climate effects and recovery from past land use) in driving understory responses at landscape scales? Stacked individual species distribution models fit with climate, forest, and soil predictors (248 species currently present in the landscape, derived from 150 field plots stratified by elevation and forest development, overall area under the receiving operator characteristic curve = 0.86) were driven with projected climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and modeled forest variables to predict plant community change. Nearly all species persisted in the landscape in 2050, but on average 8% of the species pool was lost by the end of the century. By 2100, landscape mean species richness and understory cover declined (-13% and -8%, respectively), warm-adapted species increasingly dominated plant communities (i.e., thermophilization, +12%), and plot-level turnover was high (62%). Subalpine forests experienced the greatest richness declines (-16%), most thermophilization (+17%), and highest turnover (67%), resulting in plant community homogenization across elevation zones. Climate rather than forest change was the dominant driver of understory responses. The magnitude of unabated 21st-century change is likely to erode plant diversity in a species richness hotspot, calling for stronger conservation and climate mitigation efforts.

Modeling windthrow effects on water runoff and hillslope stability in a mountain catchment affected by the VAIA storm

Windthrows seriously affect forest landscapes, causing several issues in hydrological and geomorphological terms. In this regard, Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) topographic data recently increased the opportunity to investigate in detail physical processes at the catchment scale. Moreover, topographically based hydrological and geomorphological models allow quantifying runoff alteration due to windthrows-driven land cover changes and detect the occurrence of land degradative processes at the sub-catchment scale. In this connection, accurate investigations about windthrows role in varying local runoff regimes over time are still obscure, as well as the possibility of predicting terrain instabilities due to windstorm occurrence. This research aims to investigate the interaction between windthrows, runoff alterations and hillslope failures affecting a landslide-prone mountain catchment (northern Italy). Hydrological HEC-HMS and geomorphological RESS models were applied. Windthrows' role in altering runoff regimes and hillslope stability was investigated starting from the elaboration of ALS-derived points clouds acquired before and after the occurrence of the Vaia storm. Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) were elaborated for the two scenarios to compare daily runoff variations and predict the activation of terrain instabilities by looking at land cover changes driven by the blowdown event at the sub-catchment detail. Results attested the key role of windstorms in altering local runoff, with a maximum relative runoff increment equal to 2.56 % and a maximum runoff difference equal to 3.12 mmh-1, as well as in encouraging the activation of the observed shallow landslide. The correlation between windthrows occurrence and runoff alterations was validated by performing regression analysis (R2 = 0.76), while the accuracy of instabilities predictions was tested through the Distance to Perfect Classification (D2PC) index and True Skill Statistic (TSS) score, respectively resulted equal to 0.076 and 0.898. This research represents a valid tool for investigating similar issues at a wider scale, also providing suggestions for promoting interventions in wind-disturbed forest areas.

A cloud-integrated GIS for forest cover loss and land use change monitoring using statistical methods and geospatial technology over northern Algeria

Over the last two decades, forest cover has experienced significant impacts from fires and deforestation worldwide due to direct human activities and climate change. This paper assesses trends in forest cover loss and land use and land cover changes in northern Algeria between 2000 and 2020 using datasets extracted from Google Earth Engine (GEE), such as the Hanssen Global Forest Change and MODIS Land Cover Type products (MCD12Q1). Classification was performed using the pixel-based supervised machine-learning algorithm called Random Forest (RF). Trends were analyzed using methods such as Mann-Kendall and Sen. The study area comprises 17 basins with high rainfall variability. The results indicated that the forest area decreased by 64.96%, from 3718 to 1266 km², during the 2000-2020 period, while the barren area increased by 40%, from 134,777 to 188,748 km². The findings revealed that the Constantinois-Seybousse-Mellegue hydrographic basin was the most affected by deforestation and cover loss, exceeding 50% (with an area of 1018 km²), while the Seybouse River basin experienced the highest percentage of cover loss at 40%. Nonparametric tests showed that seven river basins (41%) had significantly increasing trends of forest cover loss. According to the obtained results, the forest loss situation in Algeria, especially in the northeastern part, is very alarming and requires an exceptional and urgent plan to protect forests and the ecological system against wildfires and climate change. The study provides a diagnosis that should encourage better protection and management of forest cover in Algeria.

A Comparison of Small Rodent Assemblages after a 20 Year Interval in the Alps

Human-induced environmental alterations in the Alps may importantly affect small mammal species, but evidence in this sense is limited. We live-trapped small rodents in the Central-Eastern Italian Alps in three close-by habitat types (rocky scree, alpine grassland, and heath) at 2100 m a.s.l. during summer-fall, in 1997 and 2016. We compared small rodent assemblages through a Redundancy Detrended Analysis (RDA). In both surveys, we detected two specialist species, i.e., the common vole (Microtus arvalis) and the snow vole (Chionomys nivalis), and, unexpectedly, the forest generalist bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In 1997, grassland was mainly occupied by the common vole, while the bank vole and the snow vole were sympatric in the other habitats. In 2016, the snow vole was detected only in the scree, while other species did not show distribution changes. We discuss a series of hypotheses that might have driven the differences observed across decades, among which is a species-specific response to abiotic and biotic environmental alterations, with the alpine habitat specialist moving out of sub-optimal habitats. We encourage further research on this topic, e.g., via long-term longitudinal studies.

Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly in areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred across Europe between 1986 and 2020, we find a power-law relationship between maximum fire size and area burned, indicating that large fires contribute disproportionally to fire activity in Europe. We further show a robust positive correlation between summer vapor pressure deficit and both maximum fire size (R²  = .19) and maximum burn severity (R²  = .12). Europe's fire regimes are thus highly sensitive to changes in future climate, with the probability for extreme fires more than doubling by the end of the century. Our results suggest that climate change will challenge current fire management approaches and could undermine the ability of Europe's forests to provide ecosystem services to society.

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) detects wildfire occurrence in the Mediterranean countries of Southern Europe

The impacts and threats posed by wildfires are dramatically increasing due to climate change. In recent years, the wildfire community has attempted to estimate wildfire occurrence with machine learning models. However, to fully exploit the potential of these models, it is of paramount importance to make their predictions interpretable and intelligible. This study is a first attempt to provide an eXplainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework for estimating wildfire occurrence using a Random Forest model with Shapley values for interpretation. Our findings accurately detected regions with a high presence of wildfires (area under the curve 81.3%) and outlined the drivers empowering occurrence, such as the Fire Weather Index and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Furthermore, our analysis suggests the presence of anomalous hotspots. In contexts where human and natural spheres constantly intermingle and interact, the XAI framework, suitably integrated into decision support systems, could support forest managers to prevent and mitigate future wildfire disasters and develop strategies for effective fire management, response, recovery, and resilience.

The Use of UAV-Acquired Multiband Images for Detecting Rockfall-Induced Injuries at Tree Crown Level

In this paper, we present an identification of rockfall-injured trees based on multiband images obtained by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). A survey with a multispectral camera was performed on three rockfall sites with versatile tree species (Fagus sylvatica L., Larix decidua Mill., Pinus sylvestris L., Picea abies (L.) Karsten, and Abies alba Mill.) and with different characterizations of rockfalls and rockfall-induced injuries. At one site, rockfall injuries were induced in the same year as the survey. At the second site, they were induced one year after the initial injuries, and at the third site, they were induced six years after the first injuries. At one site, surveys were performed three years in a row. Multiband images were used to extract different vegetation indices (VIs) at the tree crown level and were further studied to see which VIs can identify the injured trees and how successfully. A total of 14 VIs were considered, including individual multispectral bands (green, red, red edge, and near-infrared) by using regression models to differentiate between the injured and uninjured groups for a single year and for three consecutive years. The same model was also used for VI differentiations among the recorded injury groups and size of the injuries. The identification of injured trees based on VIs was possible at the sites where rockfall injuries were induced at least one year before the UAV survey, and they could still be identifiable six years after the initial injuries. At the site where injuries were induced only four months before the UAV survey, the identification of injured trees was not possible. VIs that could explain the largest variability (R2 > 0.3) between injured and uninjured trees were: inverse ratio index (IRVI), green–red vegetation index (GRVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized ratio index (NRVI), and ratio vegetation index (RVI). RVI was the most successful, explaining 40% of the variance at two sites. R2 values only increased by a few percentages (up to 10%) when the VIs of injured trees were observed over a period of three years and mostly did not change significantly, thus not indicating if the vitality of the trees increased or decreased. Differentiation among the injured groups did not show promising results, while, on the other hand, there was a strong correlation between the VI values (RVI) and the size of the injury according to the basal area of the trees (so-called injury index). Both in the case of broadleaves and conifers at two sites, the R2 achieved a value of 0.82. The presented results indicate that the UAV-acquired multiband images at the tree crown level can be used for surveying rockfall protection forests in order to monitor their vitality, which is crucial for maintaining the protective effect through time and space.

Windstorm Impacts on Forest-Related Socio-Ecological Systems: An Analysis from a Socio-Economic and Institutional Perspective

Windstorms are considered among the most impacting natural events for European forests and related Socio-Ecological Systems (SES). Given that their intensity and frequency are increasing, an in-depth understanding of their impacts is crucial to mitigate risks and potential negative effects. However, so far, scientific research on windstorm impacts has mainly focused on environmental dimensions, while socio-economic and institutional ones are rarely taken into consideration. Our analysis aims at enriching the current scientific knowledge on windstorm impacts on forest SES by providing an overview of the state-of-the-art academic investigations on windstorm impacts on socio-economic and institutional dimensions. Overall, 46 papers were reviewed to identify the most recurrent post-windstorm dynamics and drivers that influence resilience and adaptation of socio-economic, institutional and related governance dimensions of European forest SES. Results show that the current scientific knowledge on socio-economic impacts of windstorms mainly concentrates on forest-related stakeholders and sectors, paying little attention to the broader social, cultural and institutional drivers that contribute to forest SES resilience. Further, cascade effects linking environmental, social and institutional dimensions are poorly analyzed. This restricted focus could lead to an incomplete understanding of the dynamics shaping socio-economic adaptability to windstorms, affecting long-term and sustainable recovery from extreme natural events. To correctly frame effective, intersectoral and coordinated recovery strategies gaining a deeper understanding of human–environment interactions is needed, as well as acknowledging the positive influence of causal relationships in improving forest-related SES resilience.

Intermediate disturbances are a key driver of long-term tree demography across old-growth temperate forests

Disentangling the relative influence of background versus disturbance related mortality on forest demography is crucial for understanding long-term dynamics and predicting the influence of global change on forests. Quantifying the rates and drivers of tree demography requires direct observations of tree populations over multiple decades, yet such studies are rare in old-growth forest, particularly in the temperate zone of Europe. We use multi-decade (1980-2020) monitoring of permanent plots, including observations of mode of mortality and disturbance events, to quantify rates and drivers of tree demography across a network of old-growth remnants in temperate mountain forests of Slovenia. Annual rates of mortality and recruitment varied markedly among sites and over time; census intervals that captured intermediate severity canopy disturbances caused subtle peaks in annual mortality (e.g., >2%/year), while rates of background mortality in non-disturbed intervals averaged about 1%/year. Roughly half of the trees died from modes of mortality associated with disturbance (i.e., uprooting or snapped-alive). Results of a Bayesian multilevel model indicate that beech (Fagus sylvatica) had a higher likelihood of disturbance related mortality compared to fir (Abies alba), which mainly died standing, and there was a notable increase in the odds of disturbance mortality with increasing diameter for all species. Annual recruitment rates were consistently low at sites (<0.5%) that lacked evidence of disturbance, but often exceeded 3% on sites with higher levels of past canopy mortality. Recruitment was dominated by beech on sites with more diffuse background mortality, while the less shade tolerant maple (Acer pseudoplatanus) recruited following known disturbance events. Our study highlights the important role of stand-scale, partial canopy disturbance for long-term forest demography. These results suggest that subtle climate-driven changes in the regime of intermediate severity disturbances could have an important influence on future forest dynamics and warrant attention.

Development and anatomical traits of black pine on an abandoned agricultural land compared to forested areas

Global acreage of forested lands has increased in some countries. At least some of this increase is due to the natural conversion of abandoned agricultural lands into forests. However, little is known about how these new stands develop on abandoned agricultural lands in comparison with natural regeneration of existing forests. Specifically, knowledge of how black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) naturally establishes and develops on abandoned agricultural lands is limited. In this study, we examined the density and growth of black pine saplings as well as some morphological and anatomical characteristics on an abandoned agricultural land (AAS). These data were compared with those observed in a naturally regenerated stand (NRS), and in a forest opening (FOS). The greatest sapling density was observed in the NRS site, while sapling growth and stem biomass were higher in AAS followed by NRS and FOS. Moreover, each study site exhibited site-specific morphological and anatomical traits in their saplings. Our findings showed that site treatments and overstory openness would both play crucial role for establishment and development of black pine.

Changes in Root-Shoot Allometric Relations in Alpine Norway Spruce Trees After Strip Cutting

Silvicultural interventions such as strip cuttings can change the resource availability of the edge trees. This may alter tree allometry, as light regime, water, and nutrient availability can change at the forest edge. Increased root growth may optimize resource uptake and/or enhance tree anchorage to withstand the altered wind regime. However, little is known about the patterns of the root-shoot allometric responses to strip cuttings. In three alpine stands differing in climate, site productivity, and stand characteristics, we selected 71 Norway spruce trees and took increment cores from stems, root collars, and main roots. This enabled us to study changes in the long-term root-stem allometry for 46 years and short-term allometric responses to intervention. The effects of cutting were compared between edge trees and trees from the stand interior in 10 years before and after the intervention. The long-term allocation to roots increased with stem diameter, with the strongest effects on the regularly managed stand with the tallest and largest trees. These results support the allometric biomass partitioning theory, which postulates resource allocation patterns between different plant organs to depend on plant size. Strip cutting on north-facing slopes boosted edge-tree growth in all plant compartments and enhanced allocation to roots. This change in allometry started 2 years after cutting but disappeared 7-8 years later. In the post-cutting period, the highest root-shoot increase was observed in the small trees independent of the site. This indicates the change in growing conditions to have the strongest effects in formerly suppressed trees. Thus, the effect of such acclimation on the wind firmness of subdominant spruce trees is a question with high importance for optimizing cutting layouts in lowering post-cutting vulnerability to disturbance. The results from this case study contribute to a better understanding of the structural acclimation of spruce trees from high-elevation forests to new forest edges. However, for a more mechanistic understanding of environmental drivers, further analyses of tree-ring stable isotopes are recommended.

Biological Legacies and Rockfall: The Protective Effect of a Windthrown Forest

Windstorms represent one of the main large-scale disturbances that shape the European landscape and influence its forest structure, so post-event restoration activities start to gain a major role in mountainous forest management. After a disturbance event, biological legacies may enhance or maintain multiple ecosystem services of mountain forests such as protection against natural hazards, biodiversity conservation, or erosion mitigation. However, the conservation of all these ecosystem services after stand-replacing events could go against traditional management practices, such as salvage logging. Thus far, the impact of salvage logging and removal of biological legacies on the protective function of mountain stands has been poorly studied. Structural biological legacies may provide protection for natural regeneration and may also increase the terrain roughness providing a shielding effect against gravitational hazards like rockfall. The aim of this project is to understand the dynamics of post-windthrow recovery processes and to investigate how biological legacies affect the multifunctionality of mountain forests, in particular the protective function. To observe the role of biological legacies we performed 3000 simulations of rockfall activity on windthrown areas. Results show the active role of biological legacies in preventing gravitational hazards, providing a barrier effect and an energy reduction effect on rockfall activity. To conclude, we underline how forest management should take into consideration the protective function of structural legacies. A suggestion is to avoid salvage logging in order to maintain the multifunctionality of damaged stands during the recovery process.

Long-term forest vegetation dynamics in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, Indian west Himalaya: evidence from repeat studies on compositional patterns

It has been established that resurvey of historical vegetation stands, even those not marked permanently, could foster our understanding of vegetation dynamics and changes in structure and composition over time. However, such studies are poorly available, particularly in remote landscapes of the Indian Himalaya. There exists a complete lack of resurveys, which has limited our ability to provide reliable evidence of changes over the decades. This study, for the first time in the Indian Himalaya, considered repeat surveys (nearly after 25 years) of vegetation stands in eleven forest communities of the buffer zone of NDBR (Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve). Thirty historical forest stands, earlier studied in 1988-1990, were revisited during 2012-2014 and investigated using the same survey methods as used in the previous study. We found that previously reported dominant tree species, i.e., Alnus nepalensis, Acer cappadocicum, Quercus floribunda, Quercus semecarpifolia, Hippophae salicifolia, and Betula utilis, in nine out of eleven communities in the study area are continuing to exhibit dominance in the community. However, a significant increase in species richness and density in the seedling and sapling layer in Quercus floribunda, Quercus semecarpifolia, Rhododendron arboreum, and Abies pindrow is indicative of the ongoing process of change in forest composition. The compositional features of plant communities, when analyzed through Community Change Sensitivity (CCS) approach, identified Quercus floribunda, mixed Quercus-deciduous spp., Hippophae salicifolia, and Abies pindrow as the most change-sensitive communities in the study area and thus can be prioritized as the long-term ecological monitoring sites in the west Himalaya to understand intensity and patterns of changes. The potential changes based on the ecological information from two time period compositional data sets, having conservation and management implications, should be accommodated in the long-term perspective plans of the reserve.

High Fungal Diversity but Low Seasonal Dynamics and Ectomycorrhizal Abundance in a Mountain Beech Forest

Forests on steep slopes constitute a significant proportion of European mountain areas and are important as production and protection forests. This study describes the soil fungal community structure in a European beech-dominated mountain forest stands in the Northern Calcareous Alps and investigates how it is determined by season and soil properties. Samples were collected at high spatial resolution in an area of ca. 100 m × 700 m in May (spring) and August (summer). Illumina MiSeq high-throughput sequencing of the ITS2-region revealed distinct patterns for the soil fungal communities. In contrast to other studies from temperate European beech forest stands, Ascomycota dominated the highly diverse fungal community, while ectomycorrhizal fungi were of lower abundance. Russulaceae, which are often among the dominant ectomycorrhizal fungi associated with European beech, were absent from all samples. Potentially plant pathogenic fungi were more prevalent than previously reported. Only subtle seasonal differences were found between fungal communities in spring and summer. Especially, dominant saprotrophic taxa were largely unaffected by season, while slightly stronger effects were observed for ectomycorrhizal fungi. Soil characteristics like pH and organic carbon content, on the other hand, strongly shaped abundant taxa among the saprotrophic fungal community.

Forest Area Changes in Cinque Terre National Park in the Last 80 Years. Consequences on Landslides and Forest Fire Risks

Cinque Terre, one of the most important Italian cultural landscapes, has not been spared from depopulation and agricultural abandonment processes, that involved many rural areas in Europe, as a consequence of socio-economic transformations that occurred after WWII. Depopulation of rural areas, especially in mountains or in terraced areas, caused significant environmental consequences, such as the decrease of biodiversity, the landscape homogenization, the increase of hydrogeological and forest fires risks. Cinque Terre National Park (5TNP) was established in 1999, and, differently from other Italian National Parks, not just for protecting natural habitats, but mainly to preserve, restore and valorize the historical terraced landscape. Moreover, the area is a UNESCO cultural landscape site and it is partly protected by three Sites of Community Importance. The research intended to investigate the transformations that have affected forested areas inside the 5TNP in the period 1936–2018, also highlighting the connections with hydrogeological and forest fires risks, as a support for the Park planning strategies and the conservation of the UNESCO site. Results highlighted that 37% of the current forests are the consequence of dry stones terraces abandonment that occurred in the twentieth century, with negative effects on the stability of steep slopes, hydrogeological risk, forest fires and on the conservation of a unique cultural landscape. This confirms the current national trend showing no deforestation occurring, but rather a continuous increase of forests on abandoned land. While 5TNP policies and actions are effectively aimed at pursuing an equilibrium between cultivated areas and forests, the Sites of Community Importance located inside the Park mainly focuses on the conservation of “natural habitats”, even if the current vegetation is also the result of secondary successions on former cultivated land. The research highlighted the need to valorize “cultural values” in forest planning as well as the importance of forest history for an accurate planning of forest resources in protected areas.

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.

Forest Disturbances in Polish Tatra Mountains for 1985–2016 in Relation to Topography, Stand Features, and Protection Zone

For more than four centuries, the Tatra Mountains were affected by many factors, such as forest and pastoral management, mining and metallurgy, windthrows, snow avalanches, and bark beetle outbreaks. Due to the availability of the long-running Landsat program enabling acquisition of spatially and spectrally consistent information, it is possible to the use these data for forest disturbance analysis. The main aim of this study was to analyze the relationships between the frequency of disturbances detected over the period of 1985–2016 and selected topographic features, such as elevation, exposure, and slope, derived from a digital elevation model (DEM); stand features, such as vegetation community type, age, structure, and degree of naturalness of the stand; and the management protection zone, which was extracted from thematic layers of the Tatra National Park (TNP). Using the normalized difference moisture index (NDMI), we detected forest disturbances in each year and analyzed them in the context of these topographic features, forest stand characteristics, and the management protection zone. We observed that forest stands in the lower montane zone, slopes between 10°–30°, and eastern exposures were primarily affected by disturbances. These consisted of artificially planted spruce stands aged between 51 and 100 years old.

Norway spruce at the trailing edge: the effect of landscape configuration and composition on climate resilience

CONTEXT

Norway spruce (Picea abies) is one of the most widespread tree species in Europe's forests. Due to its high economic value it has been strongly favored by management, especially at the trailing edge of its natural distribution. However, disturbances from wind and bark beetles are increasingly impacting these forests, and their resilience under climate change has been called into question recently.

OBJECTIVES

We quantified the effects of landscape configuration and composition on (1) the risk from natural disturbances, and (2) on the overall resilience of Norway spruce to changing climate at the trailing edge.

METHODS

We simulated the dynamics of a 9183 ha forest landscape in Eastern Austria over 190 years. We used the simulation model iLand to experimentally study a wide range of landscape compositions and configurations under five different climate scenarios.

RESULTS

Natural disturbances increased considerably under all future climate scenarios. Dispersing Norway spruce throughout the landscape in mixed stands resulted in the highest levels of climate resilience. Reducing the percentage of Norway spruce on the landscape increased the resilience of the remaining Norway spruce trees, yet landscape configuration generally had a stronger effect on resilience than composition.

CONCLUSIONS

The resilience of Norway spruce at the trailing edge of its distribution is challenged by climate change, and considerable efforts are needed to sustain these ecosystems. While currently discussed adaptation measures focus largely on the stand level, we show that modifying landscape composition and configuration can be used to foster Norway spruce resilience while maintaining socio-economically relevant proportions of Norway spruce.

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.

What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.

ASFORESEE: A Harmonized Model for Economic Evaluation of Forest Protection against Rockfall

Gravitational hazards, such as rockfall, constitute a major risk in mountainous areas, threatening dwellers, goods, and infrastructures, and ultimately posing a challenge to their development. Ecosystem-based solutions for Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR), such as protection forests, can play a significant role in mitigating these risks by integrating the protective structures currently adopted, which are often costly and could entail higher environmental impacts. This study develops an economic model called ASFORESEE (Alpine Space FORest Ecosystem Services Economic Evaluation) to assess the protective service forests provide against rockfall within a standardized framework adopting a precautionary approach. The Replacement Cost approach was adopted, measuring the protection effectiveness, the need for protection of the stakeholders and defining a harmonized method for the design of the defensive structures. Applying the model to a case study in the Italian Alps, the results show the forest has a relevant protective effect able to fulfil the stakeholders’ needs, with a value of 30,440 € ha−1, equal to 950 € ha−1 year−1, within the 25-year timespan considered. ASFORESEE could feasibly be adopted in other mountainous contexts, due to its harmonized structure reliant on minimal assumptions. Its adoption would foster the acknowledgment of the forest role and to further support the inclusion of Eco-DRR in local risk management plans.

Shallow landslide disposition in burnt European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests

Tree roots contribute significantly to soil strength on hillslopes. In the case of wildfires, this effect may abruptly vanish and be lacking for a considerable period of time depending on the resistance and resilience of the forest. Despite its importance, quantitative data on the impact and dynamics of wildfires on slope stabilization is still lacking. We use the study case of the Fagus sylvatica L. to quantify the medium-term evolution of root reinforcement and its effect on slope stability in fire-injured forests. In the study, we upscale root reinforcement using field data for the calibration of the Root Bundle Model and detailed information on forest structure in 244 plots, and calculate the spatio-temporal dynamics of forest protective capacity using a three-dimensional probabilistic slope stability model (slideforNET) for different site types. In unburnt and low-burn forests, the protective capacity was found to remain constant over time. Forests hit by moderate burns continue to provide adequate protection for shallow (depth < 0.5 m) and cohesive soils only, whereas in the case of high severity fires, the protective capacity vanishes for 15 years and an increased shallow landslide probability remains for at least 40 years. These conditions call for appropriate sylvicultural post-fire measures.

Presenting MASSIMO: A Management Scenario Simulation Model to Project Growth, Harvests and Carbon Dynamics of Swiss Forests

Forest development models have been used to predict future harvesting potentials and forest management reference levels under the Kyoto guidelines. This contribution aims at presenting the individual-tree simulator MASSIMO and demonstrating its scope of applications with simulations of two possible forest management reference levels (base or business as usual) in an example application. MASSIMO is a suitable tool to predict timber harvesting potentials and forest management reference levels to assess future carbon budgets of Swiss forests. While the current version of MASSIMO accurately accounts for legacy effects and management scenarios, effects of climate and nitrogen deposition on growth, mortality, and regeneration are not yet included. In addition to including climate sensitivity, the software may be further improved by including effects of species mixture on tree growth and assessing ecosystem service provision based on indicators.

A Framework for the Integration of Nature-Based Solutions into Environmental Risk Management Strategies

Mountainous areas are expected to face increasing societal pressure due to mass tourism and the rising intensity and frequency of natural hazards triggered by climate change. Therefore, the development of proper strategies for the management of environmental risks will be crucial to ensure their liveability. Against this backdrop, concepts such as territorial resilience and Social–Ecological Systems (SES) can support the prioritisation of protective efforts. This paper presents a conceptual framework to be applied to areas subject to natural hazards. Its aim is to support the integration of different measures, with a special focus on protection forests and other Nature-based Solutions, into current risk management strategies. The framework considers (i) the definition of SES boundaries; (ii) the identification of the main goals to be achieved; (iii) the quantification of the supply and demand of the ecosystem protection service; and (iv) the development of risk management strategies able to include the management of protection forests among the adopted solutions. This framework is intended as a tool to be adopted by local and regional decision-makers as a tool to identify the areas at risk, to recognise the potential role of protection forests, and to operationalise the concept of resilience through the deployment of “grey-green” strategies.

Modeling Spatial Patterns of Humus Forms in Montane and Subalpine Forests: Implications of Local Variability for Upscaling

Humus forms are a distinctive morphological indicator of soil organic matter decomposition. The spatial distribution of humus forms depends on environmental factors such as topography, climate and vegetation. In montane and subalpine forests, environmental influences show a high spatial heterogeneity, which is reflected by a high spatial variability of humus forms. This study aims at examining spatial patterns of humus forms and their dependence on the spatial scale in a high mountain forest environment (Val di Sole/Val di Rabbi, Trentino, Italian Alps). On the basis of the distributions of environmental covariates across the study area, we described humus forms at the local scale (six sampling sites), slope scale (60 sampling sites) and landscape scale (30 additional sampling sites). The local variability of humus forms was analyzed with regard to the ground cover type. At the slope and landscape scale, spatial patterns of humus forms were modeled applying random forests and ordinary kriging of the model residuals. The results indicate that the occurrence of the humus form classes Mull, Mullmoder, Moder, Amphi and Eroded Moder generally depends on the topographical position. Local-scale patterns are mostly related to micro-topography (local accumulation and erosion sites) and ground cover, whereas slope-scale patterns are mainly connected with slope exposure and elevation. Patterns at the landscape scale show a rather irregular distribution, as spatial models at this scale do not account for local to slope-scale variations of humus forms. Moreover, models at the slope scale perform distinctly better than at the landscape scale. In conclusion, the results of this study highlight that landscape-scale predictions of humus forms should be accompanied by local- and slope-scale studies in order to enhance the general understanding of humus form patterns.

The Hydrological Impact of Extreme Weather-Induced Forest Disturbances in a Tropical Experimental Watershed in South China

Tropical forests are frequently disturbed by extreme weather events including tropical cyclones and cold waves, which can not only yield direct impact on hydrological processes but also produce indirect effect on hydrology by disturbing growth and structures of tropical forests. However, the hydrological response to extreme weather-induced forest disturbances especially in tropical forested watersheds has been less evaluated. In this study, a tropical experimental watershed in Hainan Province, China, was selected to investigate the hydrological responses to extreme weather-induced forest disturbances by use of a single watershed approach and the paired-year approach. Key results are: (1) extreme weather-induced forest disturbances (e.g., typhoon and cold wave) generally had a positive effect on streamflow in the study watershed, while climate variability either yielded a negative effect or a positive effect in different periods; (2) the response of low flows to forest discussion was more pronounced; (3) the relative contribution of forest disturbances to annual streamflow (48.6%) was higher than that of climate variability (43.0%) from 1995 to 2005. Given the increasing extreme weather with climate change and their possible catastrophic effects on tropical forests and hydrology in recent decades, these findings are essential for future adaptive water resources and forest management in the tropical forested watersheds.

Strategies for Climate-Smart Forest Management in Austria

We simulated Austrian forests under different sustainable management scenarios. A reference scenario was compared to scenarios focusing on the provision of bioenergy, enhancing the delivery of wood products, and reduced harvesting rates. The standing stock of the stem biomass, carbon in stems, and the soil carbon pool were calculated for the period 2010–2100. We used the forest growth model Câldis and the soil carbon model Yasso07. The wood demand of all scenarios could be satisfied within the simulation period. The reference scenario led to a small decrease of the stem biomass. Scenarios aiming at a supply of more timber decreased the standing stock to a greater extent. Emphasizing the production of bioenergy was successful for several decades but ultimately exhausted the available resources for fuel wood. Lower harvesting rates reduced the standing stock of coniferous and increased the standing stock of deciduous forests. The soil carbon pool was marginally changed by different management strategies. We conclude that the production of long-living wood products is the preferred implementation of climate-smart forestry. The accumulation of carbon in the standing biomass is risky in the case of disturbances. The production of bioenergy is suitable as a byproduct of high value forest products.

70 Years of Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Apennines (Italy): A Meta-Analysis

Land use science usually adopts a case study approach to investigate landscape change processes, so we considered a meta-analysis an appropriate tool for summarizing general patterns and heterogeneous findings across multiple case studies over a large geographic area. Mountain landscapes in the Apennines (Italy) have undergone significant variations in the last century due to regional and national socio-economic changes. In this work, we reviewed 51 manuscripts from different databases and examined 57 case studies. We explored heterogeneous data sets, adopting a stepwise approach to select the case studies: Step 1, a general overview of the main studies; Step 2, an analysis of the features of the study sites and of land-use/cover transitions; Step 3, a landscape pattern analysis. We standardized the processing methods to obtain a new set of homogeneous data suitable for comparative analysis. After some pre-processing of the selected paper due to the broad heterogeneity of the data, we calculated common landscape metrics ex novo. We obtained digital images used to perform automatic segmentation with eCognition Developer 64 software. Our review indicated that most case studies were in Central and Southern Italy, 83% were examined at local scale, 77% carried out change detection, but only 38% included both change detection and landscape spatial pattern analysis. The results revealed a clear trend of forest expansion (+78%) and the reduction of croplands (−49%) and grasslands (−19%). We did not find significant changes in the landscape spatial patterns.

Vegetation History in the Toledo Mountains (Central Iberia): Human Impact during the Last 1300 Years

Mid-mountain ecosystems provide a broad diversity of resources, heterogeneous relief, and a mild climate, which are all very useful for human necessities. These features enable different strategies such as the terracing of the slopes as well as wide crop diversification. Their relations lead to a parallel co-evolution between the environment and human societies, where fire and grazing become the most effective landscape management tools. This paper presents the results obtained from a multi-proxy study of the Bermú paleoenvironmental record, which is a minerotrophic mire located in the Quintos de Mora National Hunting Reserve (Toledo Mountains, central Spain). The bottom of this core has been dated in the Islamic period (ca. 711–1100 cal AD), and the study shows how the landscape that was built over time in the Toledo Mountains up to the present day is narrowly linked to human development. This study shows the increasing human pressure on the landscape, as well as the subsequent strategies followed by the plant and human communities as they faced diverse environmental changes. Thus, it is possible to attest the main role played by the humans in the Toledo Mountains, not only as a simple user, but also as a builder of their own reflexion in the environment.

Natural disturbances are spatially diverse but temporally synchronized across temperate forest landscapes in Europe

Natural disturbance regimes are changing substantially in forests around the globe. However, large-scale disturbance change is modulated by a considerable spatiotemporal variation within biomes. This variation remains incompletely understood particularly in the temperate forests of Europe, for which consistent large-scale disturbance information is lacking. Here, our aim was to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of forest disturbances across temperate forest landscapes in Europe using remote sensing data and determine their underlying drivers. Specifically, we tested two hypotheses: (1) Topography determines the spatial patterns of disturbance, and (2) climatic extremes synchronize natural disturbances across the biome. We used novel Landsat-based maps of forest disturbances 1986-2016 in combination with landscape analysis to compare spatial disturbance patterns across five unmanaged forest landscapes with varying topographic complexity. Furthermore, we analyzed annual estimates of disturbances for synchronies and tested the influence of climatic extremes on temporal disturbance patterns. Spatial variation in disturbance patterns was substantial across temperate forest landscapes. With increasing topographic complexity, natural disturbance patches were smaller, more complex in shape, more dispersed, and affected a smaller portion of the landscape. Temporal disturbance patterns, however, were strongly synchronized across all landscapes, with three distinct waves of high disturbance activity between 1986 and 2016. All three waves followed years of pronounced drought and high peak wind speeds. Natural disturbances in temperate forest landscapes of Europe are thus spatially diverse but temporally synchronized. We conclude that the ecological effect of natural disturbances (i.e., whether they are homogenizing a landscape or increasing its heterogeneity) is strongly determined by the topographic template. Furthermore, as the strong biome-wide synchronization of disturbances was closely linked to climatic extremes, large-scale disturbance episodes are likely in Europe's temperate forests under climate changes.

Using Landsat time series for characterizing forest disturbance dynamics in the coupled human and natural systems of Central Europe

Remote sensing is a key information source for improving the spatiotemporal understanding of forest ecosystem dynamics. Yet, the mapping and attribution of forest change remains challenging, particularly in areas where a number of interacting disturbance agents simultaneously affect forest development. The forest ecosystems of Central Europe are coupled human and natural systems, with natural and human disturbances affecting forests both individually and in combination. To better understand the complex forest disturbance dynamics in such systems, we utilize 32-year Landsat time series to map forest disturbances in five sites across Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia. All sites consisted of a National Park and the surrounding forests, reflecting three management zones of different levels of human influence (managed, protected, strictly protected). This allowed for a comparison of spectral, temporal, and spatial disturbance patterns across a gradient from natural to coupled human and natural disturbances. Disturbance maps achieved overall accuracies ranging from 81% to 93%. Disturbance patches were generally small, with 95% of the disturbances being smaller than 10 ha. Disturbance rates ranged from 0.29% yr-1 to 0.95% yr-1, and differed substantially among management zones and study sites. Natural disturbances in strictly protected areas were longer in duration (median of 8 years) and slightly less variable in magnitude compared to human-dominated disturbances in managed forests (median duration of 1 year). However, temporal dynamics between natural and human-dominated disturbances showed strong synchrony, suggesting that disturbance peaks are driven by natural events affecting managed and unmanaged areas simultaneously. Our study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing for mapping forest disturbances in coupled human and natural systems, such as the forests of Central Europe. Yet, we also highlight the complexity of such systems in terms of agent attribution, as many natural disturbances are modified by management responding to them outside protected areas.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials

As a result of a rapidly changing climate the resilience of forests is an increasingly important property for ecosystem management. Recent efforts have improved the theoretical understanding of resilience, yet its operational quantification remains challenging. Furthermore, there is growing awareness that resilience is not only a means to addressing the consequences of climate change but is also affected by it, necessitating a better understanding of the climate sensitivity of resilience. Quantifying current and future resilience is thus an important step towards mainstreaming resilience thinking into ecosystem management. Here, we present a novel approach for quantifying forest resilience from thinning trials, and assess the climate sensitivity of resilience using process-based ecosystem modeling. We reinterpret the wide range of removal intensities and frequencies in thinning trials as an experimental gradient of perturbation, and estimate resilience as the recovery rate after perturbation. Our specific objectives were (i) to determine how resilience varies with stand and site conditions, (ii) to assess the climate sensitivity of resilience across a range of potential future climate scenarios, and (iii) to evaluate the robustness of resilience estimates to different focal indicators and assessment methodologies. We analyzed three long-term thinning trials in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests across an elevation gradient in Austria, evaluating and applying the individual-based process model iLand. The resilience of Norway spruce was highest at the montane site, and decreased at lower elevations. Resilience also decreased with increasing stand age and basal area. The effects of climate change were strongly context-dependent: At the montane site, where precipitation levels were ample even under climate change, warming increased resilience in all scenarios. At lower elevations, however, rising temperatures decreased resilience, particularly at precipitation levels below 750-800 mm. Our results were largely robust to different focal variables and resilience definitions. Based on our findings management can improve the capacity to recover from partial disturbances by avoiding overmature and overstocked conditions. At increasingly water limited sites a strongly decreasing resilience of Norway spruce will require a shift towards tree species better adapted to the expected future conditions.

A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems

Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an emerging body of literature, and recent increasing disturbances due to climate change are challenging long-held views of dynamics in these ecosystems. Here, we synthesize aspects of this Special Issue on the ecology of mountain forest ecosystems in Europe in the context of broader discussions in the field, to present a new perspective on these ecosystems and their natural disturbance regimes. Most mountain forests in Europe, for which long-term data are available, show a strong and long-term effect of not only human land use but also of natural disturbances that vary by orders of magnitude in size and frequency. Although these disturbances may kill many trees, the forests themselves have not been threatened. The relative importance of natural disturbances, land use, and climate change for ecosystem dynamics varies across space and time. Across the continent, changing climate and land use are altering forest cover, forest structure, tree demography, and natural disturbances, including fires, insect outbreaks, avalanches, and wind disturbances. Projected continued increases in forest area and biomass along with continued warming are likely to further promote forest disturbances. Episodic disturbances may foster ecosystem adaptation to the effects of ongoing and future climatic change. Increasing disturbances, along with trends of less intense land use, will promote further increases in coarse woody debris, with cascading positive effects on biodiversity, edaphic conditions, biogeochemical cycles, and increased heterogeneity across a range of spatial scales. Together, this may translate to disturbance-mediated resilience of forest landscapes and increased biodiversity, as long as climate and disturbance regimes remain within the tolerance of relevant species. Understanding ecological variability, even imperfectly, is integral to anticipating vulnerabilities and promoting ecological resilience, especially under growing uncertainty. Allowing some forests to be shaped by natural processes may be congruent with multiple goals of forest management, even in densely settled and developed countries.