Comparison of Nonblood-Based and Blood-Based Total CV Risk Scores in Global Populations

Comparison of the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India: the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study

AIMS

We compared the performance of cardiovascular risk prediction tools in rural India.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We applied the World Health Organization Risk Score (WHO-RS) tools, Australian Risk Score (ARS), and Global risk (Globorisk) prediction tools to participants aged 40-74 years, without prior cardiovascular disease, in the Rishi Valley Prospective Cohort Study, Andhra Pradesh, India. Cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up period were identified by verbal autopsy (fatal events) or self-report (non-fatal events). The predictive performance of each tool was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Sensitivity and specificity of each tool for identifying high-risk individuals were assessed using a risk score cut-off of 10% alone or this 10% cut-off plus clinical risk criteria of diabetes in those aged >60 years, high blood pressure, or high cholesterol. Among 2333 participants (10 731 person-years of follow-up), 102 participants developed a cardiovascular event. The 5-year observed risk was 4.4% (95% confidence interval: 3.6-5.3). The WHO-RS tools underestimated cardiovascular risk but the ARS overestimated risk, particularly in men. Both the laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.68 and χ2: 26.5, P = 0.003) and non-laboratory-based (C-statistic: 0.69 and χ2: 20.29, P = 0.003) Globorisk tools showed relatively good discrimination and agreement. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off improved the diagnostic accuracy of all tools.

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular risk prediction tools performed disparately in a setting of disadvantage in rural India, with the Globorisk performing best. Addition of clinical criteria to a 10% risk score cut-off aids assessment of risk of a cardiovascular event in rural India.

LAY SUMMARY

In a cohort of people without prior cardiovascular disease, tools used to predict the risk of cardiovascular events varied widely in their ability to accurately predict who would develop a cardiovascular event.The Globorisk, and to a lesser extent the ARS, tools could be appropriate for this setting in rural India.Adding clinical criteria, such as sustained high blood pressure, to a cut-off of 10% risk of a cardiovascular event within 5 years could improve identification of individuals who should be monitored closely and provided with appropriate preventive medications.

Child Marriage and Cardiovascular Risk: An Application of the Non-laboratory Framingham Risk Score

INTRODUCTION

Child marriage, defined as marriage before the age of 18 years, is a precocious transition from adolescence to adulthood, which may take a long-term toll on health.

AIM

This study aims to assess whether child marriage was associated with added risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in a nationally representative sample of Indian adults.

METHODS

Applying the non-laboratory-based Framingham algorithm to data on 336,953 women aged 30-49 years and 49,617 men aged 30-54 years, we estimated individual's predicted heart age (PHA). Comparing the PHA with chronological age (CA), we categorized individuals in four groups: (i) low PHA: PHA < CA, (ii) equal PHA: PHA = CA (reference category), (iii) high PHA: PHA > CA by at most 4 years, and (iv) very high PHA: PHA > CA by 5 + years. We estimated multivariable multinomial logistic regressions to obtain relative risks of respective categories for the child marriage indicator.

RESULTS

We found that women who were married in childhood had 1.06 (95% CI 1.01-1.10) and 1.22 (95% CI 1.16-1.27) times higher adjusted risks of having high and very high PHA, respectively, compared to women who were married as adults. For men, no differential risks were found between those who were married as children and as adults. These results were generally robust across various socioeconomic sub-groups.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings add to the relatively new and evolving strand of literature that examines the role of child marriage on later life chronic health outcomes and provide important insights for public health policies aimed at improving women's health and wellbeing.

Implementation of Global Hearts Hypertension Control Programs in 32 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: JACC International

In 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) and Resolve to Save Lives partnered with country governments and other stakeholders to design, test, and scale up the WHO HEARTS hypertension services package in 32 low- and middle-income countries. Facility-based HEARTS performance indicators included number of patients enrolled, number treated and with blood pressure controlled, number who missed a scheduled follow-up visit, and number lost to follow-up. By 2022, HEARTS hypertension control programs treated 12.2 million patients in 165,000 primary care facilities. Hypertension control was 38% (median 48%; range 5%-86%). In 4 HEARTS countries using the same digital health information system, facility-based control improved from 18% at baseline to 46% in 48 months. At the population level, median estimated population-based hypertension control was 11.0% of all hypertension patients (range 2.0%-34.7%). The Global Hearts experience of implementing WHO HEARTS demonstrates the feasibility of controlling hypertension in low- and middle-income country primary care settings.

A comparison of laboratory-based and office-based Framingham risk scores to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Two versions of Framingham's 10-year risk score are defined for cardiovascular diseases, namely laboratory-based and office-based models. The former is mainly employed in high-income countries, but unfortunately, it is not cost-effective or practical to utilize it in countries with poor facilities. Therefore, the present study aims to identify the agreement and correlation between laboratory-based and office-based Framingham models.

METHODS

Using laboratory-based and office-based Framingham models, this cross-sectional study used data from 8944 participants without a history of CVDs and stroke at baseline in the Fasa cohort study to predict the 10-year risk of CVDs. The laboratory-based model included age, sex, diabetes, smoking status, systolic blood pressure (SBP), treatment of hypertension, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL); and the office-based model included age, sex, diabetes, smoking status, SBP, treatment of hypertension, and body mass index (BMI). The agreement between risk categories of laboratory-based and office-based Framingham models (low [< 10%], moderate [from 10 to < 20%], high [≥ 20%]) was assessed by kappa coefficients and percent agreement. Then, the correlation between the risk scores was estimated using correlation coefficients and illustrated using scatter plots. Finally, agreements, correlation coefficient, and scatter plots for laboratory-based and office-based Framingham models were analyzed by stratified Framingham risk score factors including sex, age, BMI categories, hypertension, smoking, and diabetes status.

RESULTS

The two models showed substantial agreement at 89.40% with a kappa coefficient of 0.75. The agreement was substantial in all men (kappa = 0.73) and women (kappa = 0.72), people aged < 60 years (kappa = 0.73) and aged ≥ 60 years (kappa = 0.69), smokers (kappa = 0.70) and non-smokers (kappa = 0.75), people with hypertension (kappa = 0.73) and without hypertension (kappa = 0.75), diabetics (kappa = 0.71) and non-diabetics (kappa = 0.75), people with normal BMI (kappa = 0.75) and people with overweight and obesity (kappa = 0.76). There was also a very strong positive correlation (r ≥ 0.92) between laboratory-based and office-based models in terms of age, sex, BMI, hypertension, smoking status and diabetes status.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study showed that there was a substantial agreement between the office-based and laboratory-based models, and there was a very strong positive correlation between the risk scores in the entire population as well across subgroups. Although differences were observed in some subgroups, these differences were small and not clinically relevant. Therefore, office-based models are suitable in low-middle-income countries (LMICs) with limited laboratory resources and facilities because they are more convenient and accessible. However, the validity of the office-based model must be assessed in longitudinal studies in LMICs.

Ten-Year Risk for Developing Cardiovascular Disease Among Older Adults and Elderly in India: A Secondary Analysis of Wave-1 of Longitudinal Aging Study in India

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk stratification is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for effective CVD management in primary healthcare settings. Using the 2019 updated WHO CVD risk charts, we estimated the 10-year risk for developing fatal and non-fatal CVD among participants of the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI). Methods We conducted secondary data analysis using the Wave-1 dataset of LASI. Analysis was performed in Stata software (version 14.1; StataCorp LLC, College Station, Texas) after applying sample weights. Ten-year CVD risk was estimated using a non-laboratory-based CVD risk chart. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the association between socio-demographic characteristics and 10% or more 10-year CVD risk. Results The weighted prevalence of 10% or more 10-year CVD risk was 24.70% (95% CI: 23.94%-25.47%). Participants who were currently working, living alone, and widowed had 3.63, 1.42, and 1.59 times increased odds of having a high 10-year CVD risk, respectively, after adjusting for other variables. Conclusion About a quarter of older adults and the elderly population in India have a 10-year risk for a fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event of 10% or more, as estimated using a non-laboratory based chart.

Implementing and Evaluating Community Health Worker-Led Cardiovascular Disease Risk Screening Intervention in Sub-Saharan Africa Communities: A Participatory Implementation Research Protocol

The increasing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), particularly cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) poses a considerable threat to public health. Community-driven CVD risk screening, referral and follow-up of those at high CVDs risk is essential to supporting early identification, treatment and secondary prevention of cardiovascular events such as stroke and myocardial infarction. This protocol describes a multi-country study that aims to implement and evaluate a community health worker (CHW)-led CVD risk screening programme to enhance referral linkages within the local primary care systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), using a participatory implementation science approach. The study builds upon a prior community-driven multicentre study conducted by the Collaboration for Evidence-based Health Care and Public Health in Africa (CEBHA+). This is a participatory implementation research. The study will leverage on the CVD risk citizen science pilot studies conducted in the four selected CEBHA+ project countries (viz. Ethiopia, Rwanda, Malawi, and South Africa). Through planned engagements with communities and health system stakeholders, CHWs and lay health worker volunteers will be recruited and trained to screen and identify persons that are at high risk of CVD, provide referral services, and follow-up at designated community health clinics. In each country, we will use a multi-stage random sampling to select and then screen 1000 study participants aged 35-70 years from two communities (one rural and one urban). Screening will be done using a simple validated non-laboratory-based CVD risk assessment mobile application. The RE-AIM model will be used in evaluating the project implementation outcomes, including reach, fidelity, adoption and perceived effectiveness. Developing the capacities of CHWs and lay health worker volunteers in SSA to support population-based, non-invasive population-based CVD risk prevention has the potential to impact on early identification, treatment and secondary prevention of CVDs in often under-resourced communities. Using a participatory research approach to implementing mobile phone-based CHW-led CVD risk screening, referral and follow-up in SSA will provide the evidence needed to determine the effectiveness of CVD risk screening and the potential for scaling up in the wider region.

Sex-specific performance of the ASCVD pooled cohort equation risk calculator as a correlate of coronary artery calcium in Kampala, Uganda

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is rising in Sub-Saharan Africa, but it is not known whether current risk assessment tools predict coronary atherosclerosis in the region. Furthermore, sex-specific performance and interaction with HIV serostatus has not been well studied.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study compared ASCVD risk scores and detectable coronary artery calcium (CAC>0) by sex in Kampala, Uganda (n = 200). The cohort was enriched for persons living with HIV, and all participants had at least one CVD risk factor. We fit log binomial regression models and constructed ROC curves to assess the correlation between ASCVD scores and CAC>0.

RESULTS

The mean age was 56. 62% were female and 50% of both men and women were living with HIV. The median 10-year ASCVD risk score was significantly higher in men (11.0%, IQR 7.6-19.4%) than in women (5.1%, IQR 3.2-8.7%), although the prevalence of CAC>0 was similar (8.1 vs 10.5%, p = 0.63). Each 10% increase in ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of CAC>0 in men (PR 1.59, 95% CI 1.00-2.55, p = 0.05) but not women (PR 1.15, 95% CI 0.44-3.00, p = 0.77). ROC curves demonstrated an AUC of 0.57 for women vs 0.70 for men. Adjustment for HIV serostatus improved the predictive value of ASCVD in women only (AUC 0.78, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

ASCVD risk score did not correlate with the presence of CAC in women. When HIV status was added to the ASCVD risk score, correlation with CAC was improved in women but not in men.

Healthcare-seeking behaviour, barriers to care and predictors of symptom improvement among patients with cardiovascular disease in northern Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Little is known about healthcare-seeking behaviour and barriers to care for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

Emergency department patients in Tanzania with acute CVD were prospectively enrolled. Questionnaires were administered at enrollment and 30 d later.

RESULTS

Of 241 patients, 186 (77.2%) had visited another facility for the same illness episode (median symptom duration prior to presentation was 7 d) and 82 (34.0%) reported that they were initially unaware of the potential seriousness of their symptoms. Of the 208 (86.3%) patients completing follow-up, 16 (7.7%) had died, 38 (18.3%) had visited another facility for persistent symptoms, 99 (47.6%) felt they understood their diagnosis, 87 (41.8%) felt they understood their treatment and 11 (7.8%) could identify any of their medications. Predictors of 30 d survival with symptom improvement included medication compliance (p<0.001), understanding the diagnosis (p=0.007), understanding the treatment (p<0.001) and greater CVD knowledge (p=0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with CVD in Tanzania usually visit multiple facilities for the same illness episode, typically after prolonged delays. Only a minority understand their diagnosis and treatment, and such understanding is correlated with survival with symptom improvement. Patient-centred interventions are needed to improve the quality of cardiovascular care in Tanzania.

The Ten-Year Risk Prediction for Cardiovascular Disease for Malaysian Adults Using the Laboratory-Based and Office-Based (Globorisk) Prediction Model

Background and Objectives: Globorisk is a well-validated risk prediction model that predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the national population of all countries. We aim to apply the Globorisk calculator and provide the overall, sex-specific, ethnic-specific, region-specific, and state-specific 10-year risk for CVD among Malaysian adults. Materials and Methods: Using Malaysia’s risk factor levels and CVD event rates, we calculated the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores to predict the 10-year risk for fatal CVD and fatal plus non-fatal CVD for the Malaysian adult population. We analysed data from 8253 participants from the 2015 nationwide Malaysian National Health and Morbidity Survey (NHMS 2015). The average risk for the 10-year fatal and fatal plus non-fatal CVD was calculated, and participants were further grouped into four categories: low risk (<10% risk for CVD), high risk A (≥10%), high risk B (≥20%), and high risk C (≥30%). Results: Results were reported for all participants and were then stratified by sex, ethnicity, region, and state. The average risks for laboratory-based fatal CVD, laboratory-based fatal plus non-fatal CVD, and office-based fatal plus non-fatal CVD were 0.07 (SD = 0.10), 0.14 (SD = 0.12), and 0.11 (SD = 0.09), respectively. Conclusions: There were substantial differences in terms of the sex-, ethnicity- and state-specific Globorisk risk scores obtained.

Tools for Assessing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Underserved Young Adult Populations: A Systematic Review

Cardiovascular disease (CVD, i.e., disease of the heart and blood vessels) is a major cause of death globally. Current assessment tools use either clinical or non-clinical factors alone or in combination to assess CVD risk. The aim of this review was to critically appraise, compare, and summarize existing non-clinically based tools for assessing CVD risk factors in underserved young adult (18–34-year-old) populations. Two online electronic databases—PubMed and Scopus—were searched to identify existing risk assessment tools, using a combination of CVD-related keywords. The search was limited to articles available in English only and published between January 2008 and January 2019. Of the 10,383 studies initially identified, 67 were eligible. In total, 5 out of the 67 articles assessed CVD risk in underserved young adult populations. A total of 21 distinct CVD risk assessment tools were identified; six of these did not require clinical or laboratory data in their estimation (i.e., non-clinical). The main non-clinically based tools identified were the Heart Disease Fact Questionnaire, the Health Beliefs Related to CVD-Perception measure, the Healthy Eating Opinion Survey, the Perception of Risk of Heart Disease Scale, and the WHO STEPwise approach to chronic disease factor surveillance (i.e., the STEPS instrument).

An office-based cardiovascular prediction model developed and validated in cohort studies of a middle-income country: Developing and validating an office-based model to predict cardiovascular mortality using cohorts of a middle-income country

OBJECTIVE

Prediction models for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality come from high-income countries, comprising laboratory measurements not suitable for resource-limited countries. This study aims to develop and validate a non-laboratory model to predict CVD mortality in a middle-income setting.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We used data of population aged 40-80 years from three cohort studies: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (n=5160), Isfahan Cohort Study (n=4350), and Golestan Cohort Study (n=45,500). Using Cox proportional hazard models, we developed prediction models for men and women, separately. Cross-validation and bootstrapping procedures were applied. The models' discrimination and calibration were assessed by concordance statistic (C-index) and calibration plot, respectively. We calculated the models' sensitivity, specificity and net benefit fraction in a threshold probability of 5%.

RESULTS

The 10-year CVD mortality risks were 5.1% (95%CI: 4.8-5.5) in men and 3.1% (95%CI: 2.9%-3.3%) in women. The optimism-corrected performance of the model was c=0.774 in men and c=0.798 in women. The models showed good calibration in both sexes, with a predicted-to-observed ratio of 1.07 in men and 1.09 in women. The sensitivity was 0.76 in men and 0.66 in women. The net benefit fraction was higher in men compared to women (0.46 vs. 0.35).

CONCLUSION

A low-cost model can discriminate well between low- and high-risk individuals, and can be used for screening in low-middle income countries.

Knowledge, attitudes, and preventive practices regarding ischemic heart disease among HIV-positive individuals in northern Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

To describe knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding ischemic heart disease (IHD) among adults with HIV in Tanzania.

METHODS

Adults presenting for routine HIV care at a clinic in northern Tanzania were consecutively enrolled and were administered a standardised KAP survey. For each participant, an IHD knowledge score was calculated by tallying correct answers to the IHD knowledge questions, with maximum score 10. Individual 5-year risk of cardiovascular event was calculated using the Harvard NHANES model. Associations between participant characteristics and IHD knowledge scores were assessed via Welch's t-test.

RESULTS

Among the 500 participants, the mean (SD) age was 45.3 (11.4) years and 139 (27.8%) were males. Most participants recognised high blood pressure (n = 313, 62.6%) as a risk factor for IHD, but fewer identified diabetes as a risk factor (n = 241, 48.2%), or knew that aspirin reduces the risk of a secondary cardiovascular event (n = 73, 14.6%). Higher IHD knowledge score was associated with post-primary education (mean 6.27 vs. 5.35, p = 0.001) and with >10% 5-year risk of cardiovascular event (mean 5.97 vs. 5.41, p = 0.045). Most participants believed there were things they could do to reduce their chances of having a heart attack (n = 361, 72.2%). While participants indicated that they adhered to their prescribed medications (n = 488, 97.6%), only 106 (21.2%) attended regular health check-ups.

CONCLUSION

Efforts are needed to improve gaps in IHD knowledge, and increase uptake of cardiovascular preventative practices among Tanzanian adults with HIV.

Cardiovascular Disease and Chronic Endodontic Infection. Is There an Association? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The aim of the present study was to systematically assess existing evidence on the possible association between chronic endodontic infections and cardiovascular disease (CVD). An electronic database search was implemented until 2 October 2020. The main outcome was risk of CVD diagnosis. Risk of bias was assessed through the ROBINS-I tool, while random effects meta-analyses were conducted. The quality of the evidence was assessed with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation. Twenty-one studies were eligible for inclusion, while 10 were included in the quantitative synthesis. Risk for CVD diagnosis in patients with chronic endodontic infection was 1.38 times those without infection (RR = 1.38; 95% CIs: 1.06, 1.80; p = 0.008). Risk of bias ranged from moderate to serious, while the quality of the evidence was graded as very low. Indications for an identified association between chronic endodontic infection and CVDs do exist; however, they are not grounded on high-quality evidence at present. Further research for an establishment of an association based on temporal sequence of the two entities and on unbiased well-conducted cohort studies would be highly valued.

Geographic and Sociodemographic Disparities in Cardiovascular Risk in Burkina Faso: Findings from a Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is a critical step in the current approach to the primary prevention of CVD, particularly in low-income countries such as Burkina Faso. In this study, we aimed to assess the geographic and sociodemographic disparities of the ten-year cardiovascular risk in Burkina Faso.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis of the data from the first nationwide survey using the World Health Organization (WHO) STEPwise approach. Ten-year cardiovascular risk was determined using the WHO 2019 updated risk chart (WHO risk) as main outcome, and the Framingham risk score (FRS) and the Globorisk chart for secondary outcomes. We performed a modified Poisson regression model using a generalized estimating equation to examine the association between CVD risk and sociodemographic characteristics.

Results

A total of 3081 participants aged 30 to 64 years were included in this analysis. The overall age and sex-standardized mean of absolute ten-year cardiovascular risk assessed using the WHO risk chart was 2.5% (95% CI: 2.4–2.6), ranging from 2.3% (95% CI: 2.2–2.4) in Centre Est to 3.0% (95% CI: 2.8–3.2) in the Centre region. It was 4.6% (95% CI: 4.4–4.8) for FRS and 4.0% (95% CI: 3.8–4.1) for Globorisk. Regarding categorized CVD risk (absolute risk ≥10%), we found out that the age and sex-standardized prevalence of elevated risk was 1.7% (95% CI: 1.3–2.1) for WHO risk, 10.4% (95% CI: 9.6–11.2) for FRS, and 5.9% (95% CI: 5.1–6.6) for Globorisk. For all of the three risk scores, elevated CVD risk was associated with increasing age, men, higher education, urban residence, and health region (Centre).

Conclusion

We found sociodemographic and geographic inequalities in the ten-year CVD risk in Burkina Faso regardless of risk score used. Therefore, population-wide interventions are needed to improve detection and management of adult in the higher CVD risk groups in Burkina Faso.

Validating World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts and optimizing risk assessment in China

Background

World Health Organization (WHO) released region-specific cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction charts recently, but the extent to which the charts can apply to Chinese population is unknown. We aimed to validate the WHO CVD risk charts for East Asia, and evaluate their practicability combining with China-PAR (Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China) equations among Chinese adults.

Methods

The China-PAR cohort with 93,234 participants aged 40–80 years was followed up during 1992–2015, including 29,337 participants from three sub-cohorts with follow-up period of over 10 years. We validated the WHO CVD risk charts using the China-PAR cohort by assessment of the predicted number of events, C index, calibration χ², and calibration plots, further elaborated the concordance between the China-PAR equations and the WHO risk charts.

Findings

During an average follow-up of 13•64 years, 1849 incident CVD cases were identified from 29,337 participants. Both the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based charts overestimated CVD events by 59% and 58% in men, and by 72% and 85% in women, respectively. However, 92% of participants identified as high risk by the China-PAR equations could be successfully detected by the laboratory-based charts at the cut-off point of 10%. We also observed that the non-laboratory-based charts demonstrated the poor performance for diabetic population, with high proportion of high-risk individuals (17% for men, 31% for women) would be missed.

Interpretation

Although the WHO CVD risk charts for East Asia apparently overestimated CVD risk among Chinese population, they could be pragmatic pre-selection tools, as potential supplement to the China-PAR equations. The widespread use of the WHO risk charts along with the China-PAR equations might facilitate the implementation of the risk-based CVD prevention in China.

Funding

Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Effects of a lifestyle intervention on cardiovascular risk among high-risk individuals for diabetes in a low- and middle-income setting: Secondary analysis of the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program

We aimed to examine whether a lifestyle intervention was effective in reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals at high-risk of developing diabetes in a low- and middle-income setting. The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program was evaluated by a cluster-randomized controlled trial (2013-2016) of 1007 individuals (aged 30-60 years) at high-risk for diabetes (Indian Diabetes Risk Score ≥ 60 and without diabetes) in Kerala state, India. Sixty polling areas in Kerala were randomized to intervention or control groups by an independent statistician using a computer-generated randomization sequence. Participants from 30 intervention communities received a 12-month structured peer-support lifestyle intervention program involving 15 group sessions and linked community activities, aimed at supporting and maintaining lifestyle change. The primary outcome for this analysis was the predicted 10-year CVD risk at two years, assessed using the Framingham Risk Score. The mean age at baseline was 46.0 (SD: 7.5) years, and 47.2% were women. Baseline 10-year CVD risk was similar between study groups. The follow-up rate at two years was 95.7%. The absolute risk reduction in predicted 10-year CVD risk between study groups was 0.69% (95% CI: 0.09% to 1.29%, p=0.024) at one year and 0.69% (95% CI: 0.10% to 1.29%, p=0.023) at two years. The favorable change in CVD risk with the intervention condition was mainly due to the reduction in tobacco use (change index: -0.25, 95% CI: -0.42 to -0.09). Our findings suggest that a community-based peer-support lifestyle intervention could reduce CVD risk in individuals at high-risk of developing diabetes in India. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12611000262909.

Critical appraisal of a mHealth-assisted community-based cardiovascular disease risk screening program in rural Kenya: an operational research study

Community health workers (CHWs) can participate in the cascade of hypertension and diabetes management in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Their services may be enhanced with mobile health (mHealth) tools. In this operational research study, we describe the AFYACHAT mHealth-assisted cardiovascular health screening program in rural Kenya. In this study, A CHW screened a convenience sample of adults ≥ 40 years old in rural Kenya for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using the two-way AFYACHAT mHealth instrument. AFYACHAT analyzes a patient's age, sex, smoking, diabetes and systolic blood pressure and provides a four-tiered 10-year CVD risk score. User acceptability was assessed by an end-of-study interview with the CWH. Automated error logs were analyzed. Patient satisfaction was measured with a six-question satisfaction questionnaire. Screened participants with high CVD risk were followed-up via telephone to explore any actions taken following screening. In 24 months, one CHW screened 1650 participants using AFYACHAT. The 10-year risk of CVD was <10% for 1611 (98%) patients, 10 to <20% for 26 (1.6%), 20 to <30% in 12 (0.7%), and ≥30% for 1 (0.1%). The point prevalence of hypertension and diabetes was 27% and 1.9%, respectively. Seventy-five percent of participants with elevated CVD risk sought further medical care. There was high acceptability, a 15% miscode error rate, and high participant satisfaction with the screening program. Our operational research outlines how AFYACHAT mHealth tool can assist CHW perform rapid CVD screening; this provides a model framework for non-communicable disease screening in LMICs.

Effect of a Triage-Based Screening Protocol on Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Coronary Syndrome in a Tanzanian Emergency Department: A Prospective Pre-Post Study

Background Evidence suggests that acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is underdiagnosed in sub-Saharan Africa. Triage-based interventions have improved ACS diagnosis and management in high-income settings but have not been evaluated in sub-Saharan African emergency departments (EDs). Our objective was to estimate the effect of a triage-based screening protocol on ACS diagnosis and care in a Tanzanian ED. Methods and Results All adults presenting to a Tanzanian ED with chest pain or shortness of breath were prospectively enrolled. Treatments and clinician-documented diagnoses were observed and recorded. In the preintervention phase (August 2018 through January 2019), ACS testing and treatment were dictated by physician discretion, as per usual care. A triage-based protocol was then introduced, and in the postintervention phase (January 2019 through October 2019), research assistants performed ECG and point-of-care troponin I testing on all patients with chest pain or shortness of breath upon ED arrival. Pre-post analyses compared ACS care between phases. Of 1020 total participants (339 preintervention phase, 681 postintervention phase), mean (SD) age was 58.9 (19.4) years. Six (1.8%) preintervention participants were diagnosed with ACS, versus 83 (12.2%) postintervention participants (odds ratio [OR], 7.51; 95% CI, 3.52-19.7; P<0.001). Among all participants, 3 (0.9%) preintervention participants received aspirin, compared with 50 (7.3%) postintervention participants (OR, 8.45; 95% CI, 3.07-36.13; P<0.001). Conclusions Introduction of a triage-based ACS screening protocol in a Tanzanian ED was associated with significant increases in ACS diagnoses and aspirin administration. Additional research is needed to determine the effect of ED-based interventions on ACS care and clinical end points in sub-Saharan Africa.

Patterns of Emergency Care for Possible Acute Coronary Syndrome Among Patients with Chest Pain or Shortness of Breath at a Tanzanian Referral Hospital

Background

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is thought to be a rare diagnosis in sub-Saharan Africa, but little is known about diagnostic practices for patients with possible ACS symptoms in the region.

Objective

To describe current care practices for patients with ACS symptoms in Tanzania to identify factors that may contribute to ACS under-detection.

Methods

Emergency department patients with chest pain or shortness of breath at a Tanzanian referral hospital were prospectively observed. Medical histories were obtained, and diagnostic workups, treatments, and diagnoses were recorded. Five-year risk of cardiovascular events was calculated via the Harvard National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey risk score. Telephone follow-ups were conducted 30 days after enrollment.

Results

Of 339 enrolled patients, the median (IQR) age was 60 (46, 72) years, 252 (74.3%) had hypertension, and 222 (65.5%) had >10% five-year risk of cardiovascular event. The median duration of symptoms prior to presentation was 7 days, and 314 (92.6%) reported symptoms worsened by exertion. Of participants, 170 (50.1%) received an electrocardiogram, and 9 (2.7%) underwent cardiac biomarker testing. There was no univariate association between five-year cardiovascular risk and decision to obtain an electrocardiogram (p = 0.595). The most common physician-documented diagnoses were symptomatic hypertension (104 patients, 30.7%) and heart failure (99 patients, 29.2%). Six patients (1.8%) were diagnosed with ACS, and 3 (0.9%) received aspirin. Among 284 (83.8%) patients completing 30-day follow-up, 20 (7.0%) had died.

Conclusions

Many patients with ACS risk factors present to the emergency department of a Tanzanian referral hospital with possible ACS symptoms, but marked delays in care-seeking are common. Complete diagnostic workups for ACS are uncommon, ACS is rarely diagnosed or treated with evidence-based therapies, and mortality in patients with these symptoms is high. Physician practices may be contributing to ACS under-detection in Tanzania, and interventions are needed to improve ACS care.

Framingham score and work-related variables for predicting cardiovascular disease in the working population

BACKGROUND

The Framingham score is commonly used to estimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study investigated whether work-related variables improve Framingham score predictions of sickness absence due to CVD.

METHODS

Eleven occupational health survey variables (descent, marital status, education, work type, work pace, cognitive demands, supervisor support, co-worker support, commitment to work, intrinsic work motivation and distress) and the Framingham Point Score (FPS) were combined into a multi-variable logistic regression model for CVD sickness absence during 1-year follow-up of 19 707 survey participants. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to investigate the added value of work-related variables to the FPS risk classification. Discrimination between participants with and without CVD sickness absence during follow-up was investigated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 129 (0.7%) occupational health survey participants had CVD sickness absence during 1-year follow-up. Manual work and high cognitive demands, but not the other work-related variables contributed to the FPS predictions of CVD sickness absence. However, work type and cognitive demands did not improve the FPS classification for risk of CVD sickness absence [NRI = 2.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.7 to 9.5%; P = 0.629]. The FPS discriminated well between participants with and without CVD sickness absence (AUC = 0.759; 95% CI 0.724-0.794).

CONCLUSION

Work-related variables did not improve predictions of CVD sickness absence by the FPS. The non-laboratory Framingham score can be used to identify health survey participants at risk of CVD sickness absence.

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND

To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.

METHODS

In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.

FINDINGS

Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.

INTERPRETATION

We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.

FUNDING

World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

Knowledge, attitudes, and preventative practices regarding ischemic heart disease among emergency department patients in northern Tanzania

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to increase understanding of knowledge, attitudes, and preventative practices regarding ischemic heart disease (IHD) in sub-Saharan Africa in order to develop patient-centered interventions to improve care and outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a prospective observational study.

METHODS

Adult patients presenting with chest pain or shortness of breath to an emergency department in northern Tanzania were enrolled. A questionnaire was adapted from existing knowledge attitude and practice surveys regarding cardiovascular disease and the WHO STEPS instrument. Individual five-year risk of cardiovascular event was determined by validated models based on age, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, diabetes, and smoking status. An IHD knowledge score was calculated by giving one point for each correct response to the knowledge-related items, with a maximum score of 10. Associations between IHD knowledge and patient characteristics were assessed by Welch's t-test.

RESULTS

A total of 349 patients were enrolled, with median interquartile range (IQR) age 60 (45, 72) years. Of participants, 259 (74.2%) had hypertension, and 228 (65.3%) had greater than 10% five-year risk of cardiovascular event. The mean (SD) knowledge score was 4.8 (3.3). The majority of respondents (224, 64.2%) recognized obesity as a risk factor for heart attack, while a minority (34, 9.7%) knew that a daily aspirin could reduce the risk of cardiovascular event. Greater IHD knowledge was associated with younger age (P = 0.045) and higher levels of education (P < 0.001) but not higher risk of cardiovascular disease (P = 0.123). Most respondents expressed a willingness to diet to improve their health (322, 92.3%) and a preference for treatment from a physician rather than a traditional healer for a heart attack (321, 92.0%). A minority of patients reported exercising regularly (88, 25.2%) or seeing a doctor routinely for checkups (100, 28.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk emergency department patients in northern Tanzania have moderate knowledge regarding IHD but do not consistently engage in healthy preventive practices. Patient-centered interventions are needed to improve IHD knowledge and practices in high-risk populations.

Distribution and Performance of Cardiovascular Risk Scores in a Mixed Population of HIV-Infected and Community-Based HIV-Uninfected Individuals in Uganda

BACKGROUND

The utility and validity of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk scores are not well studied in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared and correlated CVD risk scores with carotid intima media thickness (c-IMT) among HIV-infected and uninfected people in Uganda.

METHODS

We first calculated CVD risk using the (1) Framingham laboratory-based score; (2) Framingham nonlaboratory score (FRS-BMI); (3) Reynolds risk score; (4) American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association score; and (5) the Data collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs score. We then compared absolute risk scores and risk categories across each score using Pearson correlation and kappa statistics, respectively. Finally, we fit linear regression models to estimate the strength of association between each risk score and c-IMT.

RESULTS

Of 205 participants, half were females and median age was 49 years [interquartile range (IQR) 46-53]. Median CD4 count was 430 cells/mm (IQR 334-546), with median 7 years of antiretroviral therapy exposure (IQR 6.4-7.5). HIV-uninfected participants had a higher median systolic blood pressure (121 vs. 110 mm Hg), prevalent current smokers (18% vs. 4%, P = 0.001), higher median CVD risk scores (P < 0.003), and greater c-IMT (0.68 vs. 0.63, P = 0.003). Overall, FRS-BMI was highly correlated with other risk scores (all rho >0.80). In linear regression models, we found significant correlations between increasing CVD risk and higher c-IMT (P < 0.01 in all models).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cross-sectional study from Uganda, the FRS-BMI correlated well with standard risk scores and c-IMT. HIV-uninfected individuals had higher risk scores than HIV-infected individuals, and the difference seemed to be driven by modifiable factors.

Cardiovascular Complications of HIV in Endemic Countries

Effective combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has enabled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection to evolve from a generally fatal condition to a manageable chronic disease. This transition began two decades ago in high-income countries and has more recently begun in lower income, HIV endemic countries (HIV-ECs). With this transition, there has been a concurrent shift in clinical and public health burden from AIDS-related complications and opportunistic infections to those associated with well-controlled HIV disease, including cardiovascular disease (CVD). In the current treatment era, traditional CVD risk factors and HIV-related factors both contribute to an elevated risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and arrhythmias. In HIV-ECs, the high prevalence of persons living with HIV and growing prevalence of CVD risk factors will contribute to a growing epidemic of HIV-associated CVD. In this review, we discuss the epidemiology and pathophysiology of cardiovascular complications of HIV and the resultant implications for public health efforts in HIV-ECs.

Cardiovascular disease risk and prevention amongst Syrian refugees: mixed methods study of Médecins Sans Frontières programme in Jordan

Background

The growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) presented new challenges for medical humanitarian aid and little was known about primary health care approaches for these diseases in humanitarian response. We aimed to evaluate Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF’s) use of total CVD risk based prevention strategies amongst Syrian refugees in northern Jordan to identify opportunities to improve total CVD risk based guidance for humanitarian settings.

Methods

We evaluated CVD risk assessment and management in two outpatient NCD clinics in the Irbid governorate of Jordan using a mixed methods design with qualitative and quantitative strands of equal priority, integrated during data collection and interpretation. World Health Organisation/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) CVD risk charts requiring measured cholesterol were used in the clinics and in our analysis. An electronic database of routine clinical information was used to determine the CVD risk profile of the clinic population, the pattern and concordance of lipid-lowering treatment prescriptions, and the prevalence and accuracy of documented CVD risk scores. This was combined with semi-structured interviews with MSF health workers, which were recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed thematically.

Results

We reviewed the clinical records of 2907 patients. One fifth (20.9%; 95% CI 19.5, 22.4) of patients had a history of CVD while 56.8% (95% CI 54.9, 58.6) of patients had a WHO/ISH risk of <10%. Only 23.3% (95% CI 21.9, 25.0) of patients had a documented WHO/ISH risk score of which 65% were correct. 60.4% (95% CI 58.6, 62.2) of patients were eligible for lipid-lowering treatment and 48.3% (95% CI 45.9, 50.6) of these patients were prescribed it. Analysis of interviews with sixteen MSF staff identified nine explanatory themes. Providers had confusion about when and how to use the risk charts, tended to favour lifestyle intervention over drug treatment, and had uncertainty about the role of lipid-lowering treatment in primary but not secondary prevention. Patients were reluctant to start, stop, or change medication and were less able to modify risk factors and benefit from health education because of their social and economic context.

Conclusions

Four priority areas to improve CVD risk-based guidance for prevention in humanitarian settings include: practical training for health workers on total CVD risk assessment and associated guidance; supporting the use of CVD risk charts as a communication tool and task sharing; contextualising risk scoring in a broader, single consultation, total CVD risk-based algorithm; and targeting popular health myths amongst the community.

Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries: a pooled analysis of prospective cohorts and health surveys

BACKGROUND

Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and without laboratory-based measurements, and the corresponding risk charts for 182 countries to predict 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD in adults aged 40-74 years.

METHODS

Based on our previous laboratory-based prediction model (Globorisk), we used data from eight prospective studies to estimate coefficients of the risk equations using proportional hazard regressions. The laboratory-based risk score included age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol; in the non-laboratory (office-based) risk score, we replaced diabetes and total cholesterol with BMI. We recalibrated risk scores for each sex and age group in each country using country-specific mean risk factor levels and CVD rates. We used recalibrated risk scores and data from national surveys (using data from adults aged 40-64 years) to estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of CVD risk for ten countries from different world regions as examples of the information the risk scores provide; we applied a risk threshold for high risk of at least 10% for high-income countries (HICs) and at least 20% for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the basis of national and international guidelines for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores.

FINDINGS

Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13% in Iranian men (using a ≥20% risk threshold). More than 80% of adults were similarly classified as low or high risk by the laboratory-based and office-based risk scores. However, the office-based model substantially underestimated the risk among patients with diabetes.

INTERPRETATION

Our risk charts provide risk assessment tools that are recalibrated for each country and make the estimation of CVD risk possible without using laboratory-based measurements.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Tackling NCD in LMIC: Achievements and Lessons Learned From the NHLBI-UnitedHealth Global Health Centers of Excellence Program

Effectively tackling the growing noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) is a major challenge. To address research needs in this setting for NCDs, in 2009, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) and UnitedHealth Group (UHG) engaged in a public-private partnership that supported a network of 11 LMIC-based research centers and created the NHLBI-UnitedHealth Global Health Centers of Excellence (COE) Program. The Program's overall goal was to contribute to reducing the cardiovascular and lung disease burdens by catalyzing in-country research institutions to develop a global network of biomedical research centers. Key elements of the Program included team science and collaborative approaches, developing research and training platforms for future investigators, and creating a data commons. This Program embraced a strategic approach for tackling NCDs in LMICs and will provide capacity for locally driven research efforts that can identify and address priority health issues in specific countries' settings.